Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
April 29, 2020

Some Covid-19 Links

Medical doctors are not well trained in statistics. When personal financial interest are involved they ignore even its most basic rules.

California doctors with dubious COVID conclusions debunked - Pasadena Star

Experts demolish studies suggesting COVID-19 is no worse than flu - Ars Technica

This is somewhat similar to the calculation I made here:

Antibody tests support what’s been obvious: Covid-19 is much more lethal than the flu - Washington Post

A really good piece for debunking the various Coronavirus conspiracy claims:

Bill de Blasio Has Had It With Hasidic Jews - Occidental Dissident

The Plandemic is the dumbest conspiracy theory of all time.

How many people are involved in pulling off the conspiracy? Every government on earth including sworn enemies like Iran and Saudi Arabia are part of the plot. Everyone who has been infected by the virus, those who died from from it and their families are part of the conspiracy. The health care system of every country on earth down to the local level – hospital administrators, doctors, nurses, medics – are part of the plot. County coroners are part of the conspiracy. The only people who know the TRUTH are a bunch of internet cranks who think everything that ever happens in the world is a conspiracy
THEY wanted the virus to disproportionately kill Hasidic Jews, Hispanics and blacks.

SARS-CoV-2 is a bioweapon which escaped from the lab in Wuhan but fortunately it is just the flu so it really isn’t that bad.

The WHO is conspiring with Bill Gates by rejecting immunity passports.

The WHO is covering up the fact that the virus is “just the flu.” It failed to notify the world early enough that we were due for a normal flu season.

The real threat isn’t the virus that has killed 59,000 Americans. It is a nonexistent vaccine for it.

5G is causing all the deaths from the coronavirus which is why South Korea has been devastated by 246 coronavirus deaths.

The way this virus works is really curious. We still miss the most basic understanding of it.

How does coronavirus kill? Clinicians trace a ferocious rampage through the body, from brain to toes

A personal report from the frontline. Some patients deteriorate extremely fast.

The Pandemic-Era Emergency Dep’t: Weirder, Wilder & Emptier Than Ever - Matt Bivens

Lots of news about potential vaccines going into trial. But most of them, if not all, will likely fail.

Why it’ll still be a long time before we get a coronavirus vaccine - New Scientist
Trials of experimental coronavirus vaccines are already under way, but it’s still likely to be years before one is ready and vaccination may not even be possible

More media now have 'excess death' tracking graphics.

Coronavirus tracked: the latest figures as the pandemic spreads | Free to read - Financial Times
Tracking covid-19 excess deaths across countries - Economist

Use the dropboxes and buttons below the graphics to play with the data.

An interactive visualization of the exponential spread of COVID-19 - 91-DIVOC

Similar pieces will be written about other countries.

Many failures combined to unleash death on Italy’s Lombardy - AP


Epidemiologists now say the virus had been circulating widely in Lombardy since early January, if not before.


Unions and mayors of some of Lombardy’s hardest hit cities now say the country’s main industrial lobby group, Confindustria, exerted enormous pressure to resist lockdowns and production shutdowns because the economic cost would be too great in a region responsible for 21% of Italy’s GDP.

The Pentagon generals must love the Coronavirus. It will allow them to spend on a new 'threat'.

The dangerous new consensus: blame China - Stephen Kinzer / Boston Globe

As late as the beginning of this year, if an American newspaper’s front page did not have an article denouncing Russia, it was probably only because space was needed for one denouncing Iran. Yet almost overnight, the anti-Russia organ has fallen silent. A newer model has replaced it.

This new Wurlitzer blares a message that is not much different in tone or content from the old one, but with the word “China” replacing “Russia” whenever we identify the source of evil in the world. News outlets spend hours every day denouncing China. No one could have been surprised when a poll taken in March by the Pew Research Center showed that fully two-thirds of Americans now hold negative views of China — more than at any time since Pew began asking the question 15 years ago.

This Is How America and China are Weaponizing the Coronavirus - Mark Perry / National Interest

Posted by b on April 29, 2020 at 16:28 UTC | Permalink

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Epidemiologists know squat about medicine.
Epidemiologists wouldn't recognize a sick patient if that person bit them on the ass.
When a COVID-19 patient dies or a run-o-mill flu patient dies ,they die from one of the following conditions:
1. Acute lung injury (ALI)
2. Adult Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS)
3. Multi-organ System Failure
4. Sepsis (secondary to bacterial pneumonia super-imposed on the flu's atypical pneumonia)

All 4 conditions are absolute disasters and all require the public's definition of heroic, bankruptcy inducing measures.
Throw in DIC, disseminated intravascular coagulation and intubated on a respirator, and the mortality is 20% to 60 percent.
So, until the numerator is known and the astronomically high denominator has been determined and reliable antigen or antibody testing is available then these math whizzes can keep on guessing all to their precious heart's desire.

Posted by: Rich | Apr 30 2020 2:54 utc | 101

Here's another point to ponder:

Against the Corona Panic, Pt. VI: Where has the regular flu gone? The CDC reports unprecedented crash in non-COVID flu-positives, raising questions


As the story of COVID 19 unfolds and demands every ounce of our attention another unique health event, anomalous and perhaps connected goes ignored. An event unprecedented in at least the last 20 years since these things have been detailed by the CDC, coinciding with the C19 event, the CDC quietly informed any who were paying attention that the common flu- both scourge and money-maker – has been disappeared from the United States.

As the trend towards the usual gradual tapering began all of a sudden by Week 12 (March 21st) the ‘flu positive’ numbers dropped off a cliff. When one looks at the numbers from Week 10, 21.5%, to Week 12, 6.9%, we see an incredible drop off of 14.6% occurred. By Week 14 the ‘flu positives’ dropped to nearly non-existent – 0.8%. A quick glance to Week 9, 24.3%, and then down to Week 14’s all time record low of 0.8% shows a drop off of 23.5%.

It’s important to note that while the 22,324 tests done in Week 14 represent a significant drop in tests done compared to earlier weeks in 2020 those numbers still represented the 2nd highest overall Week 14 test numbers done in the history of the CDC. Yet only 0.8% ‘flu positives’ this season when the average for the preceding 7 years was 12.5% for Week 14. Even given the circumstances this is a statistical anomaly that begs many questions.

Questions that demand answers:

How did such a terrible flu season suddenly disappear?

In what column have those ‘flu positives’ been placed?

What happened to all the other seasonal virii that afflict humans this time of the year?

Where did they all go?

After a 20 year run the CDC has stated that Flu View, it’s flagship offering, will no longer be offering such meticulous reports as they shift their focus to Covid. It would seem that the CDC has decided after all these years the flu has finally run its course

Posted by: Allen | Apr 30 2020 3:08 utc | 102


Many of you see the evils of Capitalism gone bad. For some reason you seem unable to fathom that Science has been captured by the worst sort of Capitalism, as is the Public Health agencies you rely on for statistics on diseases and health

Medicine is dominated by corporate interests—physicians, academic institutions, and government agencies—whose financial interests are intertwined with drug and vaccine manufacturers. Physicians, professional associations, medical institutions, and government agencies are collaborating partners in the business of medicine in Public-Private Partnerships

The government and industry have a cozy relationship and the public health arena offers no exception. One aspect of this: the revolving door. There are many examples. One is Julie Gerberding, the former head of the CDC, resigned from her government-appointed position in January 2009 and was named the president of Merck Vaccines in December 2009. Gerberding began her new job in January 2010, one year after leaving the CDC, which is the minimum amount of time she was legally required to wait before joining an industry that she previously regulated. It is clear that Dr. Gerberding received a professional reward for expanding universal immunization policies and, in effect, pharmaceutical company profits, for marginalizing the plight of victims of adverse reactions to vaccines. In January Julie sold off close to 10 million of her Merck Stock. Half of her holdings in Merck alone.

The National Science Foundation was established in 1950 and began disbursing grants for basic scientific research.

The government began throwing money at basic research and thus transformed it into a bureaucracy. Research became high-tech-and incredibly expensive.

In 1961 Eisenhower warned at the same time he warned of the MIC that this could result in the capture of the nation by a (pseudo) scientific-technocratic elite. Indeed this elite has become a branch of the MIC.

The first scientific journal... began publication in 1665. By 1800 there were 100 journals; by 1900, 10,000 journals. By 1986, an unreadable total of nearly 140,000 papers were being published each year just by U.S. scientists,about one-third of the world total. Today that number is 2.5 million, and a total of 50 million since 1665

Most of these journals depend on industry for advertising revenues to keep them alive. In Medicine Big Pharma provides most of their revenue. They are careful not to publish anything that might offend Big Pharma. This is true outside medicine as well.

Such overgrowth in scientific ranks produces regression to the
mean. Competition among large numbers of scientists for one or a few central sources of funding restricts freedom of thought and action to a mean that appeals to the majority. The scientist who is very productive, most able to sell research, and well liked for not offending his peers with new hypotheses and ideas is selected by
his peers for funding. These peers cannot afford a nonconformist, or unpredictable, thinker because every new, alternative hypothesis is a potential threat to their own line of research.

Consensus science not Science. Driven by vast infusions of federal and commercial money, it has grown into an enormous and powerful bureaucracy that greatly amplifies its successes and mistakes all the while stifling dissent. Such a process can no longer be called science, which by definition depends on self-correction by internal challenge and debate.

Albert Einstein would not get funded for his work by the peer review system, and Linus Pauling did not (for his work on vitamin C and cancer even though he received two Nobel Prizes). The only benefit of the numerous cascades of competitive tests and reviews set up by peer review is the elimination of unsophisticated charlatans and real incompetence. In sum, the review of too many by too many achieves but one result with certainty: regression to the mean. As these armies of new scientists flood the peer review system, they even act to suppress any remaining dissension by the few remaining thoughtful researchers.

Peer review can never check the accuracy of experimental data; it can only censor unacceptable interpretations. A scientist's grants, publications, positions, awards, and even invitations to conferences are entirely controlled by his competitors. As in any other profession, no scientist welcomes being out competed or
having his pet idea disproved by a colleague.

Few scientists are any longer willing to question, even privately, the consensus views in any field whatsoever.

NIH research grants not only fund some in-house labs, but they now provide the basic source of funding for universities and other institutes, including research
conducted in other nations. Half the total federal research spending on universities and colleges for all subjects combined is now provided by the NIH. NIH grants have now become a major source of income for the larger and increasingly dependent universities. According to a 1990 article in the Journal of NIH Research, "When NIH sneezes, it is the academic community that catches cold."

Academic science was not content with grants , so they sought profits and wealth. The Bayh-Dole Act of 1980 was written to make it easier for federally funded academic research to receive patent protection that would allow the ready licensing of the of valuable R&D to private businesses. It has enabled university technology transfer offices all over the world to generate billions of dollars of licensing revenue - especially in the life sciences—by licensing patents from federally funded university research to corporate partners. Bayh-Dole has effectively turned research into big business for many universities and transformed technology transfer offices into important profit centers at academic institutions all over the world.


Posted by: Pft | Apr 30 2020 3:21 utc | 103

@ Posted by: ben | Apr 29 2020 17:27

MD Peter Breggin refers to a Nature publication of a joint American & Chinese experiment of a chimeric bat Corona virus in 2015. "Disaster Capitalism is alive and well" he writes too.

1) How can a joint effort from two opponents be a bio weapon?
2) Why would they publish secret / patentable weapon research in public "Nature"?
3) Is private capitalism now into bio weapons, killing off their consumer base?

Makes no sense at all.

Posted by: Antonym | Apr 30 2020 3:22 utc | 104

@Allen 102

Exactly! Anyone who announces Covid deaths should also have to announce an adjacent column called normal flu/influenza/pneumonia, to see how these two columns flow together and to compare total figures.

Otherwise, at best, they are disingenuous, and more probably, fraudsters and liars!

Posted by: Ric G | Apr 30 2020 3:28 utc | 105

I trust history and events to come will show these things:

1. When the US economy crashed (which is still happening and yet to come with its full force), it wasn't the "virus" that crashed it. It was the US economy that crashed the US economy. As noted above, the economy couldn't take a health shock to its workers.

2. The people of the US did not enter into distancing and self-quarantining because they were obeying the dictates of any of their governments - they were not cowed unto this, at least not by government. They chose voluntarily to do this as a survival measure, knowing that the governments were unable or unwilling to help them. And if, moving forward, governments attempt to keep an unreasonable control over the people - as if they the governments had actually been in control through this crisis - those unreasonable controls will be flouted wholesale by the people.

3. As US society feels its way into a "reopening" - still without testing or affordable treatment - there will be many nuances to explore and figure out. Society will need to learn what's useful and what's pointless, which costs are important to bear and which are disastrous beyond reason. At the first stage of the crisis, one universal hammer for one universal nail was all that the people had. Now they have masks, at least. The people made those masks, not the governments, and the people made them work. The people will make the re-opening work, and do the exploration of how to adapt the culture to what works in an age of bio-danger.

4. As everyone in the US can agree, what a shit-show it's been.

Posted by: Grieved | Apr 30 2020 4:02 utc | 106

I cannot suggest more strongly for anyone seeking the truth about this Corona Virus that you HAVE to listen to an interview with Dr Mikovits who had originally worked on the discovery of the Aids Virus and who was bullied and threatened by Fauci. YOU HAVE TO listen to this Scientist!!!

I am NOT connected to this site in any way but I think this interview HAS to spread throughout the World because this Scientist knows what she is talking about. AND, it is very scary.

Posted by: Graham Peppercorn | Apr 30 2020 4:08 utc | 107

dr... mikovits....

Posted by: james | Apr 30 2020 4:43 utc | 108

i liked what a friend said this to me today about conspiracy theories and why they're so popular.. it's like the difference between reading harry potter ( or fiction) verses the encyclopedia britannia.. what's more fun to read??

Posted by: james | Apr 30 2020 4:52 utc | 109

James @ 109:

Encyclopaedia Britannica has been American-owned since Sears Roebuck bought it in 1920. It has been based in Chicago since the 1940s.

I confess that I have never read J K Rowling's Harry Potter books; I looked at the opening sentence in one of those novels and it looked boring and bloated. By contrast, Britannica articles are succinct. Probably more fun to read too!

Incidentally one source of information for those books was Jimmy Page (ex-Led Zeppelin) who used to own Boleskine House, a one-time residence of Thelema founder and occultist Aleister Crowley's. Page used to collect Crowley's writings as well. I don't know if he still does - maybe not.

Posted by: Jen | Apr 30 2020 5:41 utc | 110

@ jen! you must be like my friend nico.. he said something very similar.. he is a bit of a science geek with a really high iq, and a questionable level eq, lol... i haven't read the potter books either, but i go in for the strange stuff - occult and that.. jimmy page is a bit of an odd ball as i understand it.. what you say doesn't surprise me, but i didn't know that about him.. i mostly think of him as a guy who was a studio musician who came up with some good musical ideas and wasn't above trying to rip off others good ideas - the blues players willie dixon and howlin wolf in particular.. he got caught for that though.. oh well.. i thought it was a fun comparison he made there..

Posted by: james | Apr 30 2020 5:54 utc | 111

>> Posted by: Crocophile Dumbmee | Apr 30 2020 1:49 utc | 91

Sounds like you’re below the minimum age here. Get out and don’t come back.

Posted by: oglalla | Apr 30 2020 5:55 utc | 112

Jen @Apr29 23:21
karlof1 @Apr30 0:34

Each of your explanations are compelling in their own way.

A few things that your explanations left out (this is not meant to be a comprehensive list):

  • The strange resignation/firing of John Bolton.
  • The strangely good timing of the ARAMACO IPO;
  • Trump's strange reversal of his stated intention to not do partial trade deals with China - he did a partial deal in January a couple of weeks after the virus became known;
  • The strange non-resistance by medical establishment to Trump's failure to respond - no one resigned as the Trump dragged his feet.

IMO any theory of deliberate release should consider these points.

Bolton's was asked to leave the administration because he was involved in pushing development of a virus which accidentally escaped the lab -OR- willingly left to give Trump/Deep State a scapegoat in case it became known that the use of the virus was deliberate? In either case, the virus was already "in the wild" ...

... which would explain why no medical professional resigned in Feb/March. It was never going to be possible to contain the virus in the West.

This would also explain why virus discussion were classified.

Trump did a trade deal with China that he knew they would have trouble to satisfy the terms of. The ARAMACO IPO - which had been delayed several times - came just about 6 weeks before the new virus was identified. And it was done despite the Houthi attack on ARAMACO facilities two months before (investors should've been very wary of the continuing war at the super high valuation).

<> <> <> <> <>

PS I do know that New Zealand had a lock-down but they did that as soon as they found 'community spread' and their vigilance has allowed them to start lifting the lock-down after only a short period.


Posted by: Jackrabbit | Apr 30 2020 6:11 utc | 113

Jackrabbit @21: 'Herd immunity' for a new virus, however it's excused, represents failure.

Just reiterating this point after reading more comments by those that argue for 'herd immunity'.

See my comment @21 for more.


Posted by: Jackrabbit | Apr 30 2020 6:15 utc | 114

Posted by: goldhoarder | Apr 29 2020 21:56 utc | 58

Thanks for that breath of fresh air, Goldhoarder, it is as valuable as gold at this time!

Posted by: BM | Apr 30 2020 6:19 utc | 115

Jen, karlof1

Continuing speculation:

Also, I don't think we should assume that the target was only China. It might've been to set-back the Chinese economy (the source of their strength) and/or kill Iranian leaders (the success of a popular revolt would obviate the need for war). Then there's North Korea. Was Kim also a target? Well, he may think so given that he seems to have gone into hiding.


Posted by: Jackrabbit | Apr 30 2020 6:33 utc | 116

Something that I haven't seen discussed:

Given that multiple strands of the virus were identified in Jan/Feb. Then shouldn't we be able to ascertain when the virus first appeared if we know how quickly it mutates?

My understanding is that the virus mutates fairly quickly. The 5 main strands identified in Jan/Feb wouldn't taken some period of time to evolve. If that period was only3 months, then the virus could be estimated to have started last November. If it is 6 months, then the best guess would be August 2019, etc.


Posted by: Jackrabbit | Apr 30 2020 6:39 utc | 117

Posted by: james | Apr 30 2020 4:52 utc | 109:
i liked what a friend said this to me today about conspiracy theories and why they're so popular.. it's like the difference between reading harry potter ( or fiction) verses the encyclopedia britannia.. what's more fun to read??

One learns something new every day, isn't the world exciting. Last I heard was "conspiracy theories" had been losing their lustre - nothing to be ashamed of for an invention from the 1960s - and been replaced a few years ago with the brand new "fake news".

On the other hand, strolling beyond the horizon of Harry Potter, conspiracies are littered around the criminal and other codes of many, many jurisdictions as an everyday reality.

Posted by: Leser | Apr 30 2020 6:49 utc | 118

The people here who are advocating and end to lock down, should answer this —— Where would the world population be now if there had been no lock down from the start ? Not in China, Italy, Spain, U.K. ? Normal plane travel, cruise ship travel, underground travel, how about pop festivals ?
Then add the kaos in emergency wards care homes lack of healthy doctors and nurses ?
I think the term is ‘experiential spread.
We have avoided that ! no thanks to the f ing Typhoid Marys on this blog.
So how many would be dead right now without lockdown ?
I’m bitting my lip here.
Becouse that is what you fools are advocating, bunch of sheeple.

Posted by: Mark2 | Apr 30 2020 7:11 utc | 119

@ Mark2 119

So how many people under 60 died of Covid 19, apart from those who had massive medical problems, and medical staff, under huge pressure, working eighty hours a week, so that a 30 year old nurse had the immune system of an eighty year old?

Without a lock down, everybody else would have barely encountered any symptoms, certainly in Australia.

Australia has had eighty deaths, half of which arose from a single cruise ship.

There were probably another twenty connected to Chinese students from Wuhan.

We are almost into single figures without those two groups.

Am I terrified of Covid? No?

Maybe you should all move to Australia?

Posted by: Ric G | Apr 30 2020 7:26 utc | 120

Jack 53 Karlov1 79 I agree. Would remark that my bet is that F Detrick closed just after "it" got out. I'd guess 01 July 2019...

My general idea about corona genre is that there is only poor herd I suspect we shall have a long, possibly permanent, series of infections. I think "herd immunity" is a deceptive slogan, generally.

I would remark that just because a diabolical plan goes wrong, or seems to go wrong (what was the plan?) does not mean that there was no plan.

And that weapons can be designed to do things which are not immediately obvious...thus a "bioweapon" would be designed to obscure its origin as well as to injure or kill.

And observe that in order to obscure the origin it would be necessary to attack the population of the makers as well as the mooted enemy.

And that stuff happens, then "they" have to fake it. Rarely a cigar is just a cigar...still, if you do biowar work and it goes wrong, well, what did you expect? I think K's scenario is probably accurate.

And that rich people are rich because they conspire, sometimes over generations, cunning, not necessarily even educated, and because they hire thugs to murder Hudson says (though it was Brother Smedley who used "thug").

Lastly, confining people, limiting their right to be, to walk freely, is, or may be seen as, a furthering of "enclosure laws"...a new stage of "taking".

Posted by: Walter | Apr 30 2020 8:27 utc | 121

Ric G @ 120
You clearly haven’t given my question enough thought !
Put a number to it ?

Posted by: Mark2 | Apr 30 2020 8:55 utc | 122

Posted by: Mark2 | Apr 30 2020 7:11 utc | 119

Where would the world population be now if there had been no lock down from the start ? Not in China, Italy, Spain, U.K. ? Normal plane travel, cruise ship travel, underground travel, how about pop festivals ?

If there had never been a media terror campaign, nobody would have noticed anything especially out of the ordinary. At most people would be saying "Rough flu season this year" and getting on with things.

Which is part of the reason I have zero faith in the Millennium expectations of the police-bootlicking "revolutionaries" who insist that somehow magically this is going to lead to some social transformation against ecocide and collective suicide. I'm certain that, especially given the materialistic, anti-spiritual way ALL lockdownism has been done and advocated from the start, that grinderism and materialism are the last things this mass ever is going to be forced, by the Earth and never by choice, to give up.

Posted by: Russ | Apr 30 2020 8:57 utc | 123

Kawasaki disease wiki says, inter alia, unknown airborne pathogen ...and the Italian doctors and now Brits too see rare possible cv related examples in the kiddies.

"Health Service Journal, the Department of Health and Social Care has sent an urgent alert to general practitioners and pediatricians across Britain last week warning about a "serious coronavirus-related syndrome [that] may be emerging in the UK.""

"during the worst of the outbreak in Lombardy, doctors in northern Italy reported extraordinarily large numbers of children under age 9 with severe cases of what appears to be Kawasaki disease"


The thought occurs that if "they" did "it", then "they" may be presumed to have other germz as well, (the old double tap routine?).


the wiki> "...correlation between Kawasaki disease and tropospheric wind patterns; winds blowing from central Asia correlate with Kawasaki disease cases in Japan, Hawaii, and San Diego.[94] This association with tropospheric winds has been shown to be modulated at seasonal and interannual timescales by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation phenomenon,[95] further indicating the agent responsible for the disease is a wind-borne pathogen. Efforts are underway to identify the suspected pathogen in air-filters flown at altitude above Japan.[96]

An association has been identified with an SNP in the ITPKC gene, which codes an enzyme that negatively regulates T-cell activation.[97] The HLA-B51 serotype has been found to be associated with endemic instances of the disease.[98] "

Posted by: Walter | Apr 30 2020 9:12 utc | 124

Russ "If there had never been a media terror campaign, nobody would have noticed anything especially out of the ordinary. At most people would be saying "Rough flu season this year" and getting on with things."

That is indeed wishful thinking. Since we are now at 50% of all European deaths in car homes, we would probably be at 70%.
Having said that, Mark2, lockdown differs from canceling intl travel and sealing borders, which a genuine quarantine actually does. You do that 2-3 weeks, maybe 40 days, and THAT'S IT. You have identified the clusters and focus on these.

Posted by: Mina | Apr 30 2020 9:34 utc | 125

China: We discovered a new virus.
America: So what?

China: It's Dangerous
America: It's only a Flu

China: Wear a Mask
America: Don't wear a Mask


Posted by: Mao | Apr 30 2020 9:48 utc | 126

Hard to believe, but yes b is offering us a mainstream media piece which he says debunks the statistics of the two doctors. Good luck finding any data debunking in this given piece. Looks like b is stuck in a belief system.

Posted by: Stephane Eybert | Apr 30 2020 9:48 utc | 127

When the US reported the first case of #COVID19, President Trump said it’s totally under control. The number is surging, while he and his administration keep deflecting the blame on China. Now, the infections in US surpasses 1 million. What will Trump say?

Posted by: Mao | Apr 30 2020 9:49 utc | 128

vk at 87

I'll ignore the groundless insult and the silly but indirect attack on several Stanford science professors expert in exactly the field they're researching and discussing. (Actually I agree with your 'academia take' if applied to nin-science profs.) I'll stay positive and say as I have frequently, I agree "Wuhan [i.e., China] is the gold standard."

But as the Chinese epidemiological experts (the Harvard/Beijing Univ. study) have said, you can't replicate or even come close to the China approach unless you get an early grip on the virus, as South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan and perhaps a couple other places did.

Our whole challenge is, what do you do you when it's too late to apply the China/Korea/Taiwan model?

Posted by: fairleft | Apr 30 2020 10:31 utc | 129

Why did you censor my message??
I thought you were above that B?!

This interview with Dr Mikovits tells us what this is all about and why Fauci cannot be trusted. Only goes for 15 mins. But this is the most damning insight yet to be shared on the CV

Posted by: Peppercron | Apr 30 2020 10:58 utc | 130


Don’t read Harry Potter. The social system in Potter is very clear. There are muggles and there are wizards. I am a muggle and proud of it. Wizards are born not made. Wizards rule with deceit, trickery, treachery. It is a perfect class society. A romance for the upper classes and a means of making the lower class romanticize their servitude.

Jimmy Page is a toff. Many links to the peerage. Not fit to hold Wolf’s guitar.

Posted by: oldhippie | Apr 30 2020 11:06 utc | 131

Posted by: oldhippie | Apr 30 2020 11:06 utc | 131

Wizards rule with deceit, trickery, treachery. It is a perfect class society. A romance for the upper classes and a means of making the lower class romanticize their servitude.

Maybe not all wizards. In J.R.R. Tolkein's "Lord of the Rings", Theoden, the king of Rohan, is first seen in a state of self-subjugation. He has surrendered to the most passive, morbid, enervating thought and non-action because of the lies fed to him by Saruman through his traitorous adviser Wormtongue. Only the timely words of Gandalf galvanize him to self-liberation.

Today's Saruman is the same as always, the corporate state which aspires to total economic and political control, the total dispossession of all of humanity, the total destruction of the Earth. And today's Wormtongues are the same as always: All the propagandists of government, media, academia, the NGO-industrial complex, professional networks, and every other lackey of system power.

After many attempts with varying success, they finally hit on a psychological terror campaign which has gotten almost everyone to surrender to panic and hysteria, to imprison themselves, to submit fully to their own economic liquidation.

Posted by: Russ | Apr 30 2020 11:34 utc | 132

H.Schmatz | Apr 29 2020 20:31 utc | 42

The psychological aspect of belonging to the select groups who are not constrained as others, for example not having a symbolic 'muzzle' on your face. Some seem to pin their hopes that those in uniforms where the social control rubber meets the proverbial ground. But why would the double digit IQ crowd who are now given even more freedom to satisfy their inner tyrants would want to resist this top-down revolution?

@b: Did you miss the bit in the video where the doctors assert their professional friends are telling them they are "being pressured to mark deaths as Covid-19"? Did you miss the bit where the doctors hinted at people would not watch their rights being stolen when mentioning "gun and ammo sales"? That is why the video was pulled from YT.

What to do when a publication openly insults its readers' intelligence?

'Financial interests of dissenting voices'. Bravo, "B". Is B for Bonus by any chance?

Posted by: concerned | Apr 30 2020 11:45 utc | 133

Btw, the "top news" in Deutschland is about a Lebanese group.

Are you 'permitted' to dicuss this topic, B? Or is the "geopolitical analyst" period over and you are now full time in "perception management"?

Posted by: concerned | Apr 30 2020 11:49 utc | 134

Russ 132

JK Rowling wizards. She of course is no housewife but a top aristocrat.

Posted by: oldhippie | Apr 30 2020 11:59 utc | 135

You would foster such reseach in target area mimicing research being done elsewhere, in secret. Then when you release it in the target area, the victim would believe it was thier own mistake or at least would feel they could not dispute it adding to guilt and humiliation.

Well at least they have finally acknowledged that it was man made. Question remains as to motive.

Posted by: jared | Apr 30 2020 11:59 utc | 136

Did you miss the bit in the video where the doctors assert their professional friends are telling them they are "being pressured to mark deaths as Covid-19"?

It really doesn't matter what cause of deaths are put on the death certificate.

The fact is that there are a huge number deaths beyond what would be normal. Two weeks ago NYC had 600% more deaths than normal and 400% more last week. Last week Stockholm had 500% more deaths than normal.

It doesn't really matter what gets put on the death certificates what should be obvious is that for whatever reason Covid19 is causing many people to die that would not otherwise die.

Posted by: jinn | Apr 30 2020 12:04 utc | 137

@ Posted by: fairleft | Apr 30 2020 10:31 utc | 129

Just do a simple mental exercise: if all these experts coming will all of those non-peer reviewed articles and opinions all over the MSM are so good and so brilliant, why didn't they act/warned us before, when the pandemic wasn't a thing?

It's easy to act like the know-it-all after the fact - you Americans even have a term for this: "hindsight is 20/20". Science is only useful if its has prediction power; without it, it is simply contemplation.


@ Posted by: ted01 | Apr 30 2020 2:13 utc | 94

So, you're exempting Marx from the foundation of the USSR, modern China, modern Vietnam, modern Cuba, North Korea, etc. etc.?

Then it's settled! Those CIA and the entire right-wing of the First World are just a bunch of lunatics! They are crushing and stifling imaginary revolutionaries, like Dom Quixote and his imaginary giants!

You speak of Marxists like they were a cult, while trafficking Lassalian bullshit under the table.

And, speaking of social-democrats: how are you doing in comparison to 80 years ago? Update me on your progress, please...


@ Posted by: fairleft | Apr 30 2020 0:43 utc | 80

Your number are actually a praise on quarantine.

The "natural" mortality rate of the COVID-19 are estimated to be between 1%-1.5% (we know that because that was the mortality in Wuhan before it was under due control; Trump's administration put a 5 million dead estimate in a "worst case scenario", which also puts the mortality rate at around 1.5%). That is, roughly between 10 and 15 times the mortality of a very strong flu (0.13%).

But we're not living in a world that is enforcing true herd immunity; even ideologically laissez-faire nations such as the UK and the USA reluctantly enforced some form of restriction of movement and business closing after some weeks of denial, and even Sweden is officially endorsing social distancing and voluntary quarantine.

So, we're in a restricted world, and, as your numbers indicate, mortality rate is more than halving in most of these places. With an extra advantage: the "denominator" (total infected) is kept relatively small, so even in nations with a 4%+ mortality rate on known cases have, in absolute terms, a small portion of their populations dead (that would not be the case with "herd immunity", which preaches for 100% of the population to be infected).

Posted by: vk | Apr 30 2020 12:12 utc | 138

OECD report on very low testing in France, UK, Netherlands... but why is Korea there in the bottom too? (what do they call Korea??)

Posted by: Mina | Apr 30 2020 12:14 utc | 139

It would be carried out by a third party not seen as having motive.

Me thinks thou doth protest too much.

Posted by: jared | Apr 30 2020 12:17 utc | 140

"during the worst of the outbreak in Lombardy, doctors in northern Italy reported extraordinarily large numbers of children under age 9 with severe cases of what appears to be Kawasaki disease"
Posted by: Walter | Apr 30 2020 9:12 utc | 124

It has been suggested that poorly designed and antiquated airconditioning systems may have substantially contributed to the severity in Lombardy. If whatever pathogen causes Kawasaki disease was opportunistically infecting the lungs of elderly Covid patients and recirculating within the airconditioning ducts, I imagine highly elevated concentrations of the pathogen may have been in the aircon ducts, and if so it would surely not be surprising if large numbers of small children had Kawasaki disease as a result.

I don't know anything about Kawasaki disease, does it have any similarity with Legionaires disease?

Posted by: BM | Apr 30 2020 12:22 utc | 141

You may be right about current deaths running hundreds of percentage point above normal but it also does matter how you record deaths. Otherwise you are simply rigging the sample!

'A death can be registered with both COVID-19 and Influenza and Pneumonia mentioned on the death certificate. Because pneumonia may be a consequence of COVID-19, deaths where both were mentioned have been counted only in the COVID-19 category.'

So if the body has 1% covid and 99% pneumonia, the death certificate will record a Covid death!

My point is that Covid deaths need to be reported side by side with flu/influenza/pneumonia deaths, with totals, and historical data going back ten years. This is the only way that anyone can get a true idea of the trend line on what is happening.

I have heard that doctors have been under extreme pressure to record deaths as Covid to create the appearance of a pandemic, which of course may be the true state of affairs.

If you want to change the graph lines, then simply change the text. (This of course does not change the total deaths)

'A death can be registered with both COVID-19 and Influenza and Pneumonia mentioned on the death certificate. Because Covid may be a consequence of pneumonia, deaths where both were mentioned have been counted only in the pneumonia category.'

And now the graph lines are reversed.

There, fixed it for ya!

Posted by: Ric G | Apr 30 2020 12:23 utc | 142

Just because the UK medical system is now under extreme pressure, with the nation's finances having already been spent upon the 'supremely valuable' Trident submarines, does this mean that the whole world has to be 'psych-oped' into a shutdown?

When it snows in Siberia do all Australians have to put on fur coats and go and hide in their rooms?

And with New York ventilator deaths apparently running at 80% of those on the ventilator, maybe the medical system is contributing to the emergency, especially after the administration of a cocktail of drugs, maybe including a splash of Advil.

Who knows, but I would have to be near death before I went near a hospital, and probably not even then!

Posted by: Ric G | Apr 30 2020 12:35 utc | 143

China's COVID-19 data matches Benford's Law like U.S. and Italy: Researchers

Honestly, you didn't need Benford's Law to demonstrate China's numbers are accurate: the Western MSM just needed to send a fucking journalist there to see with his/her own eyes. You know, just do basic journalism.

Posted by: vk | Apr 30 2020 12:41 utc | 144

Ric G @ 142
Except that in the last 4 months Trump and U.K. Boris Johnson have been playing down the statistics not building them up !
Played down the need for stopping the planes, dragged their feet over ppe in hospitals and care homes, were slow on social isolation!
Making hospital staff sign ‘non disclosure forms’ sabotaged the research on hydroxychoraquinne,
And your trying to tell us their playing the figures up ?

Posted by: Mark2 | Apr 30 2020 12:47 utc | 145

BM | Apr 30 2020 12:22 utc | 141

Kawasaki disease> Neither do I. I believe Legionaires is a bacteria caused disease...said germ spread by birds through evaporative cooling systems, "chillers", often placed atop large buildings - thence air-born as warm water fog... Chiller water can be really nasty. Wally went to school on their design and maintenance, about a zillion years ago...and they convinced him that he'd rather do new construction.

Same in the sewage treatment job... ringiedingy from the Hall with job..."new plant?" "No, expansion." "Get somebody else."

(aside from the crafts themselves some things I loved about heavy construction were (a) the union, and (b) saying no, and (c) getting laid off.)

The wiki on K disease suggests that the wind blows the disease from central Asia to San Diego...that's one tough virus if it is a virus.

Posted by: Walter | Apr 30 2020 12:47 utc | 146

Citing ONS:
'A death can be registered with both COVID-19 and Influenza and Pneumonia mentioned on the death certificate. Because pneumonia may be a consequence of COVID-19, deaths where both were mentioned have been counted only in the COVID-19 category.'
Posted by: Ric G | Apr 30 2020 12:23 utc | 142

The ONS site gives the major causes of death averaged over the last 5 years - alleged heart disease deaths in week 14 took a massive 30% plummet compared to the 5-year average! In addition each of the other major causes of death took approaching 10% loss each compared to the 5 year average. That shows conclusively that the ONS Covid deaths in week 14 are massively over-inflated.

Despite that, these massively overinflated Covid figures are only about half the excess deaths for week 14 - after compensating for the inflated figures less than a third. What caused the other two-thirds of the excess deaths in week 14? At least some of them would have been caused by the attrociously mismanaged lockdown, fear of going to the hospital, and by mass cancellation of treatments for other medical disorders. These things do kill, without question. They are an important part of those excess deaths - nobody can know for sure how much without actual figures.

Posted by: BM | Apr 30 2020 12:49 utc | 147

The "natural" mortality rate of the COVID-19 are estimated to be between 1%-1.5% (we know that because that was the mortality in Wuhan before it was under due control; Trump's administration put a 5 million dead estimate in a "worst case scenario", which also puts the mortality rate at around 1.5%). That is, roughly between 10 and 15 times the mortality of a very strong flu (0.13%).

The early estimates were of course wildly off mark. It's like you've learned nothing from all the studies, from the obvious extremely OLD nature of the majority of victims, from the co-morbidities that heavily influwnce fatality rates. But you still wanna keep schools closed? Lunacy.

Why are you pretending anyone wants to replicate the early experience/response in Wuhan? That's not where we need to focus. Some have focused on and learned from the many studies that have been done. Especially the LA County study is instructive and there hasn't been any questioning of the sampling methods there. Large sample too. But again, not perfect. LA numbers likely can't tell us much about NYC, or Idaho.

I know you don't care, but it's a scandal how few big, well-done studies have been done. There should be many dozens by now, with big well-chosen samples. I guess there's no money in it, so such studies are rare to non-existent in this neoliberal hell.

Posted by: fairleft | Apr 30 2020 15:52 utc | 148

More common sense (emphasis added), making the same argument as the Harvard professor of medicine at 73:

We can protect the most vulnerable and reopen the economy

"The key to unlocking this false dilemma is a clear understanding of who, in fact, is most vulnerable to death from this novel killer — and who is not. As data from the deaths of the more than 58,000 of our fellow citizens to date show, the answer is clear.

"Those at greatest risk of death from coronavirus are a subset of the 15 percent of Americans older than 65. More than 80 percent of all the deaths in America from coronavirus have come from this group. Moreover, the data show that vulnerability increases with age beyond 65, especially among individuals with one or more specific preexisting conditions. And among those who have died, three of every five have been males. In the death toll to date, how many were individuals under 25? Of the 200 million Americans under 45, how many have died from this novel virus? The answers are: fewer than 100 among under 25s and fewer than 1,000 under 45s."

Posted by: fairleft | Apr 30 2020 16:04 utc | 149

Ric G wrote

And now the graph lines are reversed.

It does not matter how you break it down, the total number of deaths are still 500% higher than what they would normally be. Traffic fatalities are down dramatically but total deaths are up. The total is the total even if some parts of the total go down.

The bottom line is that as a result of this covid pandemic deaths have increased enormously. It doesn't really matter if someone dies of a heart attack because the ambulance or ER was overloaded with serious covid patients or if serious covid patients die because the emergency care system attempts to deal with heart attack victims instead. Either way the cause of death is related to the covid pandemic.

Posted by: jinn | Apr 30 2020 16:06 utc | 150

@ 131 oldhippie.. thanks.. i won't!!! i like that - not fit to hold wolfs guitar, lol...

@ 130 Peppercron.. your post is still there @ 107....

why don't you try reading instead of accusing b of censorship?? your lack of clarity is the opposite of an endorsement to bother with the links you provide!!

Posted by: james | Apr 30 2020 16:08 utc | 151

Sweden mocks the lockdown - new deaths per day.

Posted by: kurious | Apr 30 2020 16:08 utc | 152

2 threads today and 2 posts held in moderation.. oh well..

Posted by: james | Apr 30 2020 16:09 utc | 153

It's looking good for Sweden -new deaths per day.

Posted by: kurious | Apr 30 2020 16:11 utc | 154

sweden total cases and totals deaths...21,092 / 2,586 deaths per 1 million - 256..
norway - same........................................7,738 / 207 - 38
finland ...................................................4,995 / 211 - 38
denmark............................................. 9,158 / 452 - 78...

sweden pop 10 mil.
norway, finland, denmark pop - 5 mil...

Posted by: james | Apr 30 2020 16:16 utc | 155

The degree to which government "by and for the people" cannot create consensus is the measure of its failure to represent the people. The government is not trusted because it is undemocratic. Rule By Secrecy is the rule. Where did the Patriot Act come from? This abridgment of liberty appeared seemingly out of nowhere in October 2001. No representative of the people actually read it and yet it was voted into law. ( Hint: Joe Biden is principally responsible for the Patriot Act )The surveillance state is well established in our midst and in our minds and the need to promote the general welfare by defending against pandemics will entail more surveillance and more constraints on personal liberty. The degree to which the government must rely on secrecy and denial of the Bill of Rights to remain in power is the degree to which it will earn the fear & loathing of the people and simple mistrust will become violence. When Elon Musk, one of our favorite oligarchs, attacks government for its handling of the pandemic, government should worry.

Posted by: jadan | Apr 30 2020 16:19 utc | 156

@ 155 kurious.. must be the wrong graph.. numbers continue to go up for sweden..

Posted by: james | Apr 30 2020 16:20 utc | 157

@ Posted by: fairleft | Apr 30 2020 15:52 utc | 148

The concept of comorbidity is meaningless outside the strict epidemiological and medical context. Abstractly, comorbidity is just a fact of life: everybody is mortal, everybody is subject to factors that makes them closer to death.

If a hypertense diabetic contracts COVID-19 and dies in a ventilator, he died from COVID-19, period. No doctor ever will call that a diabetes-hypertension death.

So, to sum it up, comorbidity is useful as a medical guideline, as doctors can use it to deduce who they should prioritize. But death cause is death cause.

@ Posted by: fairleft | Apr 30 2020 16:04 utc | 150

I'll not repeat myself here about why vertical isolation doesn't work.

Posted by: vk | Apr 30 2020 16:22 utc | 158

James 157

The graph shows the deaths for each day - not cumulative

Total deaths are increasing for Sweden - as long as any new deaths come. Obviously nobody can come back to life. :-D

They are however now increasing much more slowly.

The point of the graph is that it shows that the epidemic is now on ist last legs in Sweden, despite the lack of lockdown implementattiom.

Posted by: kurious | Apr 30 2020 16:28 utc | 159

@ vk | Apr 30 2020 16:22 utc | 160

So, if a HIV patient suffers from and dies of a bacterial pneumonia (pneumococcus and others) because his immune system is down due his HIV infection, then he's said to have died of HIV. Correct?

If another HIV patient acquires Covid-19 and suffers from a virological pneumonia and subsequently succumbs to it, then he has died of Covid-19? Did I get that right?

How about a Covid-19 positive person getting killed in a fatal car accident? Covid-19 then? What about cancer patients in their terminal phase, which in most cases ends by some fatal organ failure?

Why don't you stop making sh*t up just so it fits your narrative?

Posted by: Hmpf | Apr 30 2020 16:40 utc | 160

@161 kurious..well i hope you are correct, but the comparison numbers i share show how sweden fairs the worst of the Scandinavian countries...

Posted by: james | Apr 30 2020 16:46 utc | 161

I don't know if anyone has linked to this outstanding short video b retweeted at his Twitter page, but at 1 3/4min it tells the entire sordid truth of the Outlaw US Empire's pandemic response. As the saying goes, it needs to be made viral!

Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 30 2020 16:53 utc | 162

Here are the total excess death numbers from the 24 countries that participate in the Euromomo survey.

Week 17 just released today.

These totals for Weeks 1-17 are from the years 2018 and 2020- we must keep in mind that this is all during a described global pandemic of historical proportions that has been the stated cause for the lock down of 3-4 billion people and the shutting down of numerous economies across the world- not to mention the immense suffering caused by both of those reactions to this pandemic.

Europe Excess Death Totals Weeks 1-17- All Ages: 2018: 1,244,275
Europe Excess Death Totals Weeks 1-17- All Ages: 2020- 831,679

Can someone explain how in the world, if we are in the midst of the equivalent of the Black Plague there are over 400,000 less deaths in 2020 than in 2018.

There is no amount of "social distancing" or fewer cars on the street or the wearing of masks or...that can account for a full reduction in total excess deaths of a full 33%.

Anyone want to try to explain this?

Posted by: Allen | Apr 30 2020 16:59 utc | 163

MOA today is victem of a DOS attack (denial of service)
I expect some one here hit a truth nerve ! Look what happened to Corbyn, Sanders the bbc, Gardian, momentum, off-gardian (did enyone see the worried nervous look on kit knightly’s face.
Take care b I disagree with this post and respect your right to protect your selve ! We remember Assange.
But this is all coincidence theory !

Posted by: Mark2 | Apr 30 2020 17:00 utc | 164

Ah, it appears we have the same bot as disabuseer and its clones visiting us yet again. Just can't stand having the truth disseminated and more people globally becoming informed about the doings of your evil masters/owners. Your attacks show the level of your owners's desperation and that it has no logical arguments left to defend itself other than to beg for mercy before it gets strung up from the nearest lamp post.

Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 30 2020 17:04 utc | 165

Russian PM got covid.

Posted by: hopehely | Apr 30 2020 17:12 utc | 166

Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 30 2020 17:04 utc | 172

I wish the irony of accusing those trying to demonstrate that something far more sinister than a virus is happening here of being disgusted by the truth isn't lost on you, but having read your mindless drivel here for over five years now I know it will be.

The people who unleashed this chimera and who are in the process of stealing every real asset as well as every vestige if freedom and liberty while they're at it are the ones who should be hung from lamp posts, but with a brigade of morons like you defending them to your (hopefully very near) dying breath, they'll be safe for at least a bit.

Posted by: Tartan | Apr 30 2020 17:23 utc | 167

@ 166 karlof1... maybe allen would like to comment on that video shared by enrique at twitter?

@ 169 allen... first explain to us who is saying we are in the midst of the black plague... thanks...

Posted by: james | Apr 30 2020 17:32 utc | 168

I appreciate that this blog, other than the more malicious trolls, allows a full representation of reader comments. The range of debate, particularly on divisive policies such as the proper implementation of social restrictions amidst a pandemic, finds a certain clarity. I have to say, those disputing and challenging this blog’s endorsement of pandemic best practices have been a one-note chorus and have been consistently such for many weeks now. Its weary work weaving through the exact same limited argument every day, but it helps in understanding where we collectively are at.

Posted by: jayc | Apr 30 2020 17:40 utc | 169

@ 153 / 155 kurious... i have to come back to that graph you have posted... it is wrong... i am sorry, but i saw the numbers for the past few days and they are higher then what wikipedias graph is showing... why even today the number as of now on this site show 124 deaths today, so something is very wrong with that graph..

Posted by: james | Apr 30 2020 17:44 utc | 170

jayc @177--

Thanks for that excellent summation. That a "one-note chorus" is presented suggests that they are indeed bots of the non-human variety.

Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 30 2020 17:52 utc | 171

@Fujibayashi Nagato #45
Whatever that means.

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 30 2020 18:15 utc | 172


Coming Out of Lockdown Unprepared


Posted by: blues | Apr 30 2020 18:22 utc | 173

@ted01 #85
Meh. My response was to a commenter, who I understood (rightly or wrongly) was talking about this country (the US).
Trying to expand my response to the whole world - that's just idiotic.
How is it my responsibility for Australia choosing not to send benefits to migrants in Australia?
How is it my responsibility that Nepal is having problems? And how exactly did nCOV make the food situation in Nepal worse?
And how is it my responsibility that some people aren't going to get stimulus benefits?
The question was if starvation in the US was going to occur due to supply. I said there is little to no evidence of this supply lack - although those who have existing economic problems, are still going to.
Yet even there - anyone who is an American citizen (and not high income) should have received a $1200 stimulus check. In comparison: the average SNAP check is $287.
The stimulus does not replace SNAP, so anyone who is already getting SNAP benefits, got more. Anyone who doesn't get SNAP, gets the equivalent of 4 months of SNAP household cash, *per adult*.
A household with 2 adults, get 8 months SNAP benefit equivalent in stimulus checks.
Yes, eventually...
So overall, your comment is in line with your previous comments that I've read: vacuous.

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 30 2020 18:23 utc | 174

Whatever right or wrong b may be about the evaluation of this pandemic (I strongly rejected his attitude against the use and the background of using Chloroquin) it seems clear by now that this is not just some flu. It seems to be able to attack the center of the immune system, similar to HIV, in a diabolic quiet way over several days with a small segment of its victims. So biologically it is different and we are all far removed from knowing enough to design reasonable methods of fighting it. Whatever real or claimed politicization issues the problem may have - it is at least a great test for the ability to stay reasonable.

Posted by: Hausmeister | Apr 30 2020 18:26 utc | 175

@Deltaeus #99
I have been suspicious of the meme that nCOV can be contracted twice.

1) It goes against all immunological precedent: that a person who overcame nCOV once via an immune reaction is somehow still susceptible to reinfection a mere month or two later.

2) The way testing is done for "live" nCOV infection is via PCR.

PCR is more like a phrenological study. Phrenology is the study of head size, shape and bumps - a thoroughly discredited method to determine intelligence, determine identity etc.
PCR tests work by taking genetic material and "amplifying" it. Basically a biochemical process which replicates the source genetic material from 1000 to over 1 million times. The fragments are then thrown into a gel which separates the bits by weight. These relative amounts at different "diffusion" levels is different for significantly different DNA.

What this means is that PCR isn't a real test. It doesn't actually know if a live virus is present. It can't tell, for example, if there are pieces vs a whole virus. It isn't even clear if it can tell the difference between the 10 viable virii produced from a successful nCOV replication vs. the 990 (or more) failed virii from the same process.

The only thing a PCR test does is show that DNA of a somewhat general type is present. Note that a typical PCR "fingerprint" is 10-20 categories of diffusion; nCOV is 30000+ DNA codons long, so each category of diffusion could be covering literally thousands of variants.

3) The PCR rates of false negatives (29%) and false positives is non-trivial.

Combine these 3 together - there's plenty of scope for misattribution.

And then comes this: Korea tests show PCR misidentifying infection

As of Sunday, 263 people in Korea tested positive for the disease again after being declared virus-free, of which 17 were minors or teens, the National Medical Center said.

“The respiratory epithelial cell has a half-life of up to three months, and RNA virus in the cell can be detected with PCR testing one to two months after the elimination of the cell,” Oh said.

The committee’s findings confirmed an earlier assessment from the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that repeat patients appear to have little or no contagiousness. The KCDC cited results of virus culture tests that all failed to find live virus in recovered patients.

Note the above: even after recovery, there are bits of nCOV in a person for up to 3 months. A PCR test can easily latch onto one or more of these and show "nCOV DNA present", but they aren't infected and they can't spread the disease.

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 30 2020 18:38 utc | 176

@Russ #100
Your positioning is incorrect.

The lockdowns are not to eradicate nCOV - nobody has said that.

The lockdowns are to prevent nCOV infections from overwhelming the hospital system.

It is arguable whether the lockdowns are the most effective method outside of hot spots like Lombardy and NY/NJ/CT, but there is no debate that lockdowns do enable reduction of nCOV spread (and thus help achieve the medical system goal).

Equally, the horribly abused "profit" motive is so wrong here as can possibly be imagined.

Is it to the health care system's profit benefit that overall medical activity has fallen? People aren't going to the ER, they're not getting either elective or necessary treatments, they're not getting sick as much from regular flu and other diseases because of lockdowns, they're not breaking legs skiing or jogging, etc etc.

Yes, there's a gold rush going on now for masks, PCR tests, antibody tests, etc. but it is tiny compared to the overall health care system pause.

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 30 2020 18:45 utc | 177

I ve read yesterday that a football player has been teted positive for the 4th time in three months; he never felt any symptoms

Posted by: Mina | Apr 30 2020 18:46 utc | 178

@Allen #102
You really need to use brain instead of mouth.
The flu season - which is 100% clear by looking at historical mortality by month - is November to February.
1) Lockdowns would reduce flu deaths even if we were in the midst of flu season
2) We're not in the midst of flu season. Mortality by month for March and April are way, way above historical averages going back at least 15 years.

Your credibility continues to erode with these half-assed arguments.

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 30 2020 18:47 utc | 179

@james #109
It is a lot more insidious than that.
Conspiracy theories are largely the fault of the internet.
In the past, everyone more or less started from the same basic set of information. Books, TV and radio were the primary basic sources of info.
With the Internet, it is actually very difficult to assemble an objective set of data - and more importantly, there are literally an unlimited number of people available to refine a conspiracy theory on top of populating basic data into a self-selected group.
The internet companies: G, FB, etc only accelerated this.
So what we see today isn't just "conspiracy theory", it is conspiracy theory on steroids because they've all been refined by lots of people instead of crazy uncle Bob like in the past.
And then there's the profit motive. Between the clickbaiters and the demogogues, there's even money to be made pushing conspiracy theory via donations, selling T-shirts, etc.

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 30 2020 18:52 utc | 180

@Allen #169
You continue with your disinformation nonsense.
2018 was a severe flu year compared to 2019, 2020, 2017, 2016, going back at least to 2009.
The patterns of mortality in 2018 were totally different - the numbers spiked early in the year whereas the nCOV mortality is only starting (in the mortality data). I've posted many times that mortality data lags by at least a month and as long as a year.
Whether you are repeating what others have told you, uncritically, or are knowingly cherry picking, you simply have not been a credible source for anything so far.

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 30 2020 18:57 utc | 181

I'm actually surprised the conspiracy nuts haven't latched onto this:
Office of Director of National Intelligence denies nCOV is a bioweapon

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 30 2020 19:01 utc | 182

>There is no amount of "social distancing" or fewer cars on the
>street or the wearing of masks or...that can account for a full
>reduction in total excess deaths of a full 33%.
>Anyone want to try to explain this?
>Posted by: Allen | Apr 30 2020 16:59 utc | 169

Iatrogenic harm is one of the top killers, although it is completely missing from CDC tables. Hospitals are desperate for non-virus patients to go to the Emergency Rooms, but they remain near empty. Because there are less patients to harm, mis-diagnoses, medication errors, and botched procedures are down, so that may explain some of the decrease in deaths.

I fail to understand why so many people keep arguing how many virus angels are dancing on the head of a pin. Medical records are unreliable at the best of times and full of errors, most small but plenty of big ones as well, and wrong diagnoses are nearly impossible to remove. Often diagnosis codes are selected so the insurance will cover the treatment, so they may or may not be relevant to the actual illness. Plain and simple, the records are a mess and will stay that way.

Posted by: Trailer Trash | Apr 30 2020 19:05 utc | 183

Allen wrote
Can someone explain how in the world, if we are in the midst of the equivalent of the Black Plague there are over 400,000 less deaths in 2020 than in 2018.

You made up the numbers? I don't know?
I see about 160000 deaths for 2020 and 110000 for 2018.
What happened in Jan Feb and Mar in either year is not very relevant
The large number of excess death showed up in April.

lets look at week 15
33,437 deaths in 2020 and 2227 in 2018

The site says that the reporting for the two most current weeks (16 and 17) is not accurate because there are delays in registration of deaths due to, guess what, a pandemic

Posted by: jinn | Apr 30 2020 19:17 utc | 184

@177 jayc... good comment/observation... thanks..

@188 c1ue... i agree with your summation!

Posted by: james | Apr 30 2020 19:49 utc | 185

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 30 2020 18:45 utc | 185

@Russ #100

Your positioning is incorrect.

The lockdowns are not to eradicate nCOV - nobody has said that.

It sure sounds to me that everyone has said that. Otherwise, why the lockdowns once it's too late?

The lockdowns are to prevent nCOV infections from overwhelming the hospital system.

Stop lying please. We all know perfectly well that if the "don't overwhelm the health system" theme ever had any validity, that time has long past since the hospitals now are near empty.

Is it to the health care system's profit benefit that overall medical activity has fallen?

The likes of you with your pseudo-"rational" defenses of what is obviously an irrational, stupid system, have no leg to stand on. Any lethal virus would more quickly figure out not to kill its host than the
virus of today's political-economic-institutional elites.

Posted by: Russ | Apr 30 2020 19:50 utc | 186

the problem as 'a user' @ 71 pointed out much earlier in the thread regarding allen is a number of things, not the least that he doesn't engage in conversation or respond to posters comments here... it might be an idea to keep that in mind..

Posted by: james | Apr 30 2020 19:52 utc | 187

Trailer Trash @191

Great comment. The epistemological question always.

On a perhaps related note. In US medicine we do the big stuff. Heroic surgery is the admired style. The observant and helpful family doctor is mostly historic. And all are terrified of visiting the doctor. From fear of the price, from fear of iatrogeny, from fear of the majesty of the Doctor. So anyone who sees the doctor is sick and has been for a good while. Then a test that may require four or five days for a result. Patient comes back to hospital real sick. And much later than when something simple like chloroquine will be useful.

Posted by: oldhippie | Apr 30 2020 19:56 utc | 188

Allen @ 102

Looks like you fcked up the page with your too-long link, making it difficult to read for everybody.

As others have repeatedly pointed out, 2018 was off-the-charts for flu-related seasonal deaths in usa.
Who knows the actual proximate causes of those 2018 deaths? Pretty sure most usa for-profits weren't looking, just doing accounting for bookkeeping purposes.

Posted by: suzan | Apr 30 2020 20:07 utc | 189

Different tools were implemented in one gold-standard approach to quelling the novel virus:

"Many provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions swiftly initiated the top level of the public health alert system
that involves the government, medical facilities and the community when the lockdown of Wuhan began.

"In other parts of China where the epidemic was at different stages, slow-down, shut-down or lockdown strategies
were adopted for those at the early stage, progressive stage and outbreak stage, respectively, Zhang said.

"Slow-down measures, including testing, tracing, social distancing and patient hospitalization, were adopted in
regions like Shanghai; shut-down measures, including testing, tracing, stay-at-home order for healthy people
and closing recreational sites, were adopted in regions at the progressive stage; and lockdown measures were
adopted in Wuhan and other cities in Hubei to break the transmission chain."

Posted by: suzan | Apr 30 2020 20:23 utc | 190


What if he's the real deal? After all it's possible.

You guys are losing it. Scared to death, why? Pun intended.

Society has banned any thought of death for so long, now it seems the grim reaper is having a little fun by scaring the shits out of a great many.

When the Syrians fought their way up to Idlib - which I welcomed whole-heartedly - it's been all about the ME and geo politics, only a very few of the regular posters on this site, if any at all, where thinking about the dead and maimed (young people!), their friends and family.
Now, as soon as there's a tiny chance one's own bum's on the line, all of a sudden it's different, so it seems to me.

Posted by: Hmpf | Apr 30 2020 20:39 utc | 191

@ 204 hmpf quote "only a very few of the regular posters on this site, if any at all, where thinking about the dead and maimed (young people!), their friends and family.
Now, as soon as there's a tiny chance one's own bum's on the line, all of a sudden it's different, so it seems to me."

how do you know these kinds of details about other posters here?? it is fine to make a conclusion, however wrong, but i am curious how you figured out this particular detail? oh, and it is definitely wrong regarding me.. maybe you can take a survey and update or modify your conclusions, lol... falling that, i am curious how you arrived at this definitive position?

Posted by: james | Apr 30 2020 21:17 utc | 192

There are few facts and numbers being reported that one can count on as being reliable. I thought Americans would die in larger numbers as the general health of Americans has deteriorated greatly in the last 50 years. A friend of mine of retirement age's doctor was amazed when she told him she took no chronic or any medications regularly. Nobody really knows how accurate the tests actually are. Especially the antibody tests that are from many different sources and just recently created.
Nobody trusts economic information as reported from China. I have no clue as to the reliability of covid 19 numbers from China. They appear to be fairly reported. The CDC I don't trust at all. Is it a fact that a hospital is paid $13000 if a patient is reported as infected with SARS COV 2 and $39,000 if they are put on a ventilator? Might that be an influence on what they do and report? It appears more and more likely that many people with covid19 symptoms were put on ventilators prematurely causing long term harm and possibly death. Nobody knows whether treating very ill people with Covid- 19 and pre-existing conditions powerful antivirals was helpful or harmful. Its been over a decade and there are still many contesting observations on how bad the swine flu pandemic was or wasn't.
One thing is not contested. The lockdowns have caused a devastating collapse of the world economy. One thing that can not be known is if the lockdowns were needed or even effective. We only know that China did what it did and the pandemic was controlled. We also know that S Korea did what it did without a lockdown and the pandemic was controlled. Sweden also doesn't have a lockdown. Their figures are worse than Denmark's but not anywhere close to drastic. It is still too early to make conclusions.
It is also clear that the big banks and Wall Street had gotten away with getting trillions 2008 to cover for their financial failures leading to the Great Recession. Nothing was fixed and the talk was it was not if but when the whole system would blow up again. This time even worse as the debt in the whole system was a magnitude bigger. Rinse and repeat is happening again while everybody is distracted by the virus. IN the white house the mighty white house the liar roars again.
Other areas are using COVID-19 lockdowns for their own agendas. Amazon loves it. Silicon Valley, the intelligence agencies, the surveillance state love the AI increase from stay at home and social distancing. Bill Gates appears positively happy the corona pandemic is happening. No more yellow jacket demonstrations. No more demonstrations in Chile. As I mentioned soon one won't have to be a suspected terrorist to be taken away and not get a lawyer or a trial.
I am glad that moon still does other reporting up to his usual standards but I am sorely disappointed with his reporting on COVID 19. Not up to par.

Posted by: gepay | Apr 30 2020 21:26 utc | 193

William H Warrick M.D. @ 199
You say ‘’ we don’t quarantine the healthy’’
(1) Surly the whole point is — it’s a pandemic, highly contagious. With out testing the public how do you know who is healthy and who is not ?
(2) on the same point ! How did we prevent Ebola spreading around the world ?
With all due respect. Here on MOA we get all sorts of bogus.

Posted by: Mark2 | Apr 30 2020 21:30 utc | 194

@hausmeister, 18:26 30 April
"we are all removed from knowing enough to design reasonable methods of fighting it"

I read the following article recently “Implemented since the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic, the chloroquine-based therapeutic protocol to which patients with Covid-19 have been subjected has met with great satisfaction. Indeed, according to specialists who took stock of the treatment at the APS this Saturday 25 April chloroquine has proven its effectiveness. Dr. Mohamed Yousfi head of infectious diseases department at Boufarik hospital (Blida), said figures in support that the treatment is effective. He indicated that half of the patients admitted since 23 March 2020 at this facility had left the hospital, completely cured after being treated with either chloroquine or antivirals in other cases. The doctor reveals that " 90% of the cases have responded very well to this treatment protocol recommended by the Ministry of Health, population and hospital reform ". Mohamed Yousfi states that " patients suffering from cardiovascular diseases and those who have not tolerated this treatment are excluded from this therapeutic protocol. The latter were put on antiviral drugs, used in the treatment of HIV infections and which gave very satisfactory results ". Pr. Nassima Achour, head of the infectious diseases department at the Specialized Hospital (EHS) El-Hadi Flici (formerly El-Kettar) in Algiers, confirmed her colleague's observation . She states that chloroquine has demonstrated "near-total efficacy".

This looks as if Algeria has designed a way of fighting the infection. Is this not a reasonable method or have I misunderstood your statement?

Posted by: cirsium | Apr 30 2020 21:56 utc | 195

From the other thread about how to avoid Great Depression 2.0 within the Outlaw US Empire--

Max Keiser on his program has explained the why behind the demand for dollars and thus its strengthening--ever scarcer dollars are required by nations and businesses to make payments on dollar denominated loans. Since the velocity of dollars moving through the system has dropped off a cliff, the opposite--need--for dollars has gone up thus its growing stronger. But as we both know, that strength is a chimera, a mirage, a ghost, and as soon as equilibrium for dollars is attained, it will then fall again as the demand vanishes. The reality is the Outlaw US Empire did it to itself, and this should be considered Blowback from its decades of unwitting support--often disguised as outright extortion--by so many nations. The dollars flowing from Fed to Wall Street will never enter the global economy unless they're forced to by redirecting their flow. The utterly gross mismanagement--shall we call it felonious fraud--of US Monetary Policy and its inability to think outside Neoliberalism will be the genuine cause of the coming Great Depression 2.0 as those $$Trillions going to Wall Street needed to be injected into the general economy for it to have any chance at restarting and recovering. The gunmen that invaded Michigan's Capitol Building were at the wrong place making the wrong demands. They should've invaded the US Treasury and kidnapped Mnuchkin and or the New York Fed and grabbed Powell, then demanded the end to Fed supplying Wall Street and instead supply Main Street.

Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 30 2020 21:58 utc | 196

Well I’v heared all the views and arguments (several times yawn) and I can clearly state ——
I’m a 100% in favour of lock down and social distancing !
This came from professional good advice and public intelligence. With political reluctance.
Learning from the Black Plague (a different contagion ) we should be setting up a cordon sanitare around clean areas ! and infected areas, plus testing the public, testing testing and testing again.

Posted by: Mark2 | Apr 30 2020 22:04 utc | 197

Here is the list of countries where governments issued lockdown/curfew order.
Canada is not on the list, we do not have it.
As you can see the US did not issue the lockdown on national level, but individual states decided by themselves. Some states do not have lockdown at all, but majority do, unfortunately.
Lots of European countries have lockdown on national level. That is hard.
To all you barflies who suffer under lockdown or curfew, my sympathies.

Posted by: hopehely | Apr 30 2020 22:16 utc | 198

Thanks for the sympathy hophely but save it for the dead and their family’s, save it for the doctors nurses and care home staff the residents liveing in fear right now, save it for the refugee camps and palistians.
Roll up this virus to the last single one put it back in the fort Detrick test tube and sue the sick US monsters who created this with corporate mansloughter.

Posted by: Mark2 | Apr 30 2020 22:28 utc | 199

NO, hopehely@212, Canada is not on the list. And, in case you didn't know the reason is that under the Constitution such matters are left to the discretion of the provinces. I live in Ontario, the most populous province and most of the measures that are described as a 'lockdown' are enforced here. They are enforced even more stringently in many municipalities, where councils have passed by-laws to deal with particular urban problems. And there is more than 70% approval for the strategy according to a recent public opinion poll cited by Skwawkbox.

It is an appalling waste of energy to continue this unprofitable back and forth around the subject of whether or not the virus exists and who is responsible for it.
Sensible people should move on and insist that we discuss the very real lessons of the crisis.

For example there is no doubt that old peoples homes-call them what you will- have been slaughterhouses in the past few weeks. There are all sorts of reasons-all non medical- why this has happened and we would do well to discuss what they are. And insist that nothing like it recur in future years.

There isn't much doubt either that our society has become infested by fascist eugenicists for whom the view that individual human lives are precious and must be protected is quaint and laughable. Small wonder that we live in a world in which the life expectancy of entire continents is less than half of what it is in the imperialist metropolis: the callous disregard for a life in Papua New Guinea, or Iraq, or Gaza, schools us to the point that we bring such attitudes home. Fascism always did begin in the peripheries of Empire and always came home to haunt the metropole.

The big question that we should be addressing, and which we lose sight of when playing statistical trivia with idiots, is the question of capitalism. This crisis is a direct result of living under capitalism. Every aspect of it from the way it spread like wildfire across the world, to the fragility of food supply chains (I am surrounded by farmers growing corn crops to be converted into ethanol!), to the failures to stockpile protective equipment and ventilators, to the contracting of the business of fighting the virus to for profit businesses, to the precarious existences lived by millions of people thrown out of work and reduced to misery by the crisis- every aspect of this complex and massive socio-economic crisis calls into question the fundamental nature of our class society.
That is what we should be talking about. Unless of course, like I suspect most of the quibblers, we are so invested in the religion of Thatcherism and the mysteries of class exploitation and oligarchy that anything is preferable to the dangerous blasphemy of questioning cannibalism/capitalism.

Posted by: bevin | Apr 30 2020 23:13 utc | 200

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