Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
April 22, 2020

It Is Not 'Authoritarian' To Support Quarantine Measures - It Just Makes Sense

Yesterday James Corbett of The Corbett Report interviewed Kit Knightly of Off-Guardian about the corona crisis. At 18:30 minutes in Corbett finds it "disturbing" that some of the blogs who usually criticize governments, like Moon of Alabama, support the measures governments have taken to lower the speed of the novel coronavirus epidemic.

Corbett then highlights a discussion on Twitter between me and the Off-Guardian account.

It started with this:

vanessa beeley @VanessaBeeley - 5:33 UTC · Apr 9, 2020

#BillGates funded World Health Organisation advocate forced removal of family members fm homes if "tested" positive for #COVID19 even tho test is not proven reliable. So, govts hve corralled us in homes & will now unlawfully raid & extract citizens under poss. false pretext.

I retweeted that and remarked:

Moon of Alabama @MoonofA - 22:30 UTC · Apr 9, 2020
China did this in phase 2 of the Wuhan quarantine because it was the only way to protect the families from their infected members. Without that policy Wuhan would not have ended the epidemic.
Current test reliability is relativ high if test is immediate used when symptoms appear.

OffGuardian retweeted my tweet and launched the discussion:

OffGuardian @OffGuardian0 - 10:54 UTC · Apr 9, 2020
Surely your not actually advocating the forced removal of “infected” people from their homes against their will? #COVID19 #coronavirus

MoonofA: To separate infected from non-infected people is the ONLY way to stop such an epidemic.

OffGuardian: So let’s be totally clear. You believe the govts - the same ones who have lied us into wars, murdered innocents and destroyed the environment - should have the power to invade our homes and take away apparently healthy people whom they “SUSPECT” of being infected?

MoonofA: Our governments already have the right to do so under certain circumstances. An epidemic which threatens the health of all is one of them.

OffGuardian: That is not an answer. Do YOU believe these corrupt govts, which you have been opposing for so many years, should be able to enter people’s homes and take away people they claim to “suspect” of being infected?

MoonofA: I support quarantine measures during epidemics. We have had these for many centuries for good reasons. We should again use them.

OffGuardian: You support arrest and detention for people the govt claims to suspect MAY have a virus that - according to official estimates - is harmless or mild for 80-99% of those infected.
You do. MoA. Former champion of human rights and justice.
Have you lost your mind?

MoonofA: You are framing a measure that protects your and other families as "arrest" and "detention". It is neither of those.

OffGuardian: Oh ok. So, should the people ‘suspected’ of being infected be allowed to leave when they choose?

If your answer is ‘no’, then this IS arrest and detention and you are hiding behind blurry language.

As it made no sense to continue I stopped responding. Later Mark Sleboda jumped in to support my view:

Mark Sleboda @MarkSleboda1 - 5:02 UTC · Apr 9, 2020

Replying to @OffGuardian0 and @MoonofA
Leviathan - save me and mine from such fools.

Another discussion between OffGuardian and him unfolded from that. OffGuardian seemed to become a bit desperate when it then tweeted this nonsense:

OffGuardian @OffGuardian0 - 19:14 UTC · Apr 9, 2020
Replying to @MarkSleboda1 @ghigoberni and @MoonofA
So you would support indefinite detention for anyone who may be carrying flu virus then. It’s a lot more dangerous to healthy people and children than #covid19, as any epidemiologist will tell you.

I have not heard of any epidemiologist who has claimed that. But maybe I am reading the wrong ones. This graphic though from the British Office of National Statistics does not look like a flu outbreak:


Source: ONS - bigger

The same ONS data was used by the Financial Times to produce this probably better visual:


Source: bigger

The few high blue dots around December/January time frame show exceptionally bad flu seasons like the London flu of 1972. Similar charts from other countries show the same effect for current covid-19 outbreaks. Without control measures like the current lock-downs the red line would certainly go through the roof.

The covid-19 disease the novel coronavirus causes is not a "flu". We largely do have 'herd immunity' against the flu. But this is a new virus causing a new disease. Nearly nobody is yet immune against it. It works in ways we are still just beginning to understand and there is no established therapy.

If we let this epidemic run wild without any control measures the death toll will be exceptionally high. The death per infection rate in Germany is currently estimated to be 0.53% (via Christian Drosten). It may be higher in other countries. That looks like a small number but remember that nearly no one has yet acquired immunity. It would probably take a year for the epidemic to run through a whole country.

Great Britain, with a population of some 60 million, would be theoretically looking at 300.000 excess death within one year. But the health care system would completely break down and thereby vastly increase the total death toll as there would be no care for most of the critical covid-19 patients and no beds for the usual other cases. That may already happen as Britain is now estimated to already have 41,000 excess death from the current epidemic.

Current estimates say that 2 to 3% of the population have so far developed anti-bodies against the virus. They likely give some immunity but we do not know how long that will hold. Should this epidemic have weather dependent waves the first one will likely end during the summer. Model calculations show that only some 6-7% of the population would by then have acquired immunity.

A second wave will then come during the winter. It will be worse as it will start everywhere at the same time and will come on top of the yearly flu season. We will then likely again need some harsh control measure like temporary lock-downs and case quarantains.

Now back to the Off-Guardian and Corbett critique. My view on the epidemic was always based on science. You can follow how it developed through the list of posts attached to this one. As I watched how China defeated its outbreak I had hoped that other governments would take similar measures. With globally concerted action we could have completely erased this disease!

But one slips into a pandemic with the governments one has, not with the ones one wishes for.

Will our 'elites' use the crisis to further enrich themselves. Sure. Will they abuse some of the control measures? That is practically guaranteed. And it does not change a damned thing with regards to the pandemic.

It is now too late to defeat it by eradicating its source. Social distancing measures like lock-downs are needed to keep the epidemic under control and to not overload our health care systems. Should the next outbreak wave be worse than the current one we will need even harsher measures than we currently have. I will support those because I know that they will save lives.

If that makes me an 'authoritarian' in the view of some then let it be so.

I for one find it more useful to tell people to make and wear masks than to post 'expert opinions' (scroll down) from PR-company sites which disagree with the scientific mainstream while their estimates of the total death toll have already been exceeded.

---
Previous Moon of Alabama posts on the issue:

Posted by b on April 22, 2020 at 18:02 UTC | Permalink

Comments
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The justification for the lockdowns are gone.

The models were wildly innacurate in overstating the impact on hospitals, the number of people who have the virus but never show symptoms is now known to be very significant meaning the mortality rate is much lower (and false attributions of Covid-19 causing death at X% further lowers the true mortality rate)...

in sum the curve has been flattened, and who needs protection are the elderly and those with weakened immune systems, not everybody else.

The justification for the lockdowns are gone.

The mark of the authoritarian, after lying about the facts until the lies can not hold - is to change the justifications.

Posted by: Florin | Apr 23 2020 19:53 utc | 401

the death ratio is skewed to the high side with sweden... now there might be some reason for this, but looking at the ratio of death numbers to case numbers, something is out of whack in sweden...

Posted by: james | Apr 23 2020 19:36 utc | 414

One of the reasons why Sweden started and has stayed with no lockdown is their, largest in Scandinavia, immigrant population and the difficulty they would have had in enforcing it. The authorities thought it would be impossible, the police don't go into some areas in normal times. Just like France, with riots every night this week, the indigenous population in Sweden is very twitchy, not wanting to take any risk in provoking any reaction.

Those areas are very high risk. The Swedish Government seems to be very reluctant releasing figures based on ethnicity. The only figure I saw, about a week ago, was Somalis were 35%+ of the deaths.

This could be a factor in Swedish figures as Norway, with a similar population density pattern does not have this problem.

Posted by: JohninMK | Apr 23 2020 20:04 utc | 402

Posted by: Passer by | Apr 23 2020 15:18 utc | 358
The average age of cruise ships passengers is 46, quite close to the european average. Importantly, you overlooked two things - you did not take into account the ship's crew, which is relatively young, and will further lower the age, and the fact that cruise passengers have relatively high socioeconomic status and higher SES is associated with better health outcomes.

Income of cruise ship passengers: nearly 40 % of passengers had income between 100k and 200k. High income is associated with better health outcomes.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/243902/cruise-ship-passengers-by-income/

Even the death rate of USS Theodore Roosevelt Aircraft Carrier is - 0,13, just like the flu, but this is for young and strong military population with average age of 28 with almost zero old people. In other words yeah, Covid 19 death rate is higher than the flu.

Sounds like you never been on one, or dealt with the cruise ship industry. Those statistics are supplied by an industry which has been working very hard to dilute the well deserved stigma of catering to an elderly audience primarily interested in getting their money's worth back from onboard calories. That's not to say that there aren't exceptions (e.g. EasyCruise's low cost format, specialty and adventure cruises), but the typical mega ship such as the one in question is not.

The cruise industry statistics on this sensitive topic are about as reliable as estate agents' "data" on their market.

Higher income is "associated with better health outcomes" - maybe so, but once you're quarantined on a ship your better doctor at home becomes a lot less relevant.

The "death rate of USS Theodore Roosevelt Aircraft Carrier is - 0,13". I read that one officer, 41, died and 655 crew tested positive (out of apparently 4800 crew). Given the ongoing mal-practice of miscounting deaths *with* Covid as deaths *from* Covid, that officers could have died of anything for all we know. He just happened to carry the virus, like the other 655.

Posted by: Leser | Apr 23 2020 20:07 utc | 403

Sounds like you never been on one, or dealt with the cruise ship industry. Those statistics are supplied by an industry which has been working very hard to dilute the well deserved stigma of catering to an elderly audience primarily interested in getting their money's worth back from onboard calories. That's not to say that there aren't exceptions (e.g. EasyCruise's low cost format, specialty and adventure cruises), but the typical mega ship such as the one in question is not.

The cruise industry statistics on this sensitive topic are about as reliable as estate agents' "data" on their market.

Still you did not show proof that the statistics are false. It wasn't a senstive topic before one or ten years, these statistics are out there from a long time. This is not enough. Until you have something good, how can i know if passenger statistics are false? I'm taling about many stats from a vast period. I certainly do not believe that mostly poor people with low socioeconomic status are boarding the ships.

>>Given the ongoing mal-practice of miscounting deaths *with* Covid as deaths *from* Covid, that officers could have died of anything for all we know. He just happened to carry the virus, like the other 655.

Well military states he died due to coronavirus.

"He was found unresponsive during a medical check on April 9 and died from complications related to the virus on Monday, according to the statement."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-13/navy-sailor-from-uss-theodore-roosevelt-died-of-covid-19

Anyweay, i have several additional questions for you. I would like to know why Wuhan was forced to many additional hospitals if its just the flu? I don't remember cities buiding 10 additional hospitals due to flu. But i have seen China, Italy, Spain, Russia and others buidling additional hospitals due to this. How do you explain that if its just the flu?

Posted by: Passer by | Apr 23 2020 20:22 utc | 404

Above comment to Leser | Apr 23 2020 20:07 utc | 419

Posted by: Passer by | Apr 23 2020 20:23 utc | 405

Why talking about "the" lockdown when the measures are entirely different from one place to another?
About England, I was wondering, and raised the issue here early February, aren't islands supposed to be even more cautious about epidemies?
Another question I have for scientists: if you tell half the population not to go out, and have the 20 percent working for administrations, hospitals and the police go out, aren't we making them the "herd of choice" for the virus, and thus more at risk??
Thanks for any explanations.

Posted by: Mina | Apr 23 2020 20:24 utc | 406

The USS Teddy Roosevelt cases have not all been resolved. 88 have reported recovery while 1 has died so far. Almost everyone on the boat was infected, at least 800 sailors so far. We know that people in the prime of their life are unlikely to die, but as Jackrabbit said, that doesn't leave out the possibility of permanent respiratory and cardiovascular damage - which also represent future strains on the healthcare system.

Very irresponsible to extrapolate anything from the sparse and unrepresentative data from the carrier. Also irresponsible to claim that reported deaths are over-reported. Massive spikes in crude death rates, far exceeding the baseline and far exceeding the number of recorded deaths, means that official death counts and infection rates are massively undercounted if anything.

Posted by: fnord | Apr 23 2020 20:24 utc | 407

to karlof1 #402. I read Giants last year. Too me, it was most notable for what it Didn't say. Lots of names not on the list. With the greatest of respect, it almost seemed like a puff piece to cover for ???? By way of my background, I've been a fan of Max Kaiser for ?? a decade. Read Steve Keen and Michael Hudson starting about the same time. I would also recommend anything by Griffins and Mullins. Plus, a good background is The Robber Barons by Mathew Josephson. Of course, Nomi Klein; early Michael Lewis. "When genius fails" the story of the crash and Fed rescue of Long Term Capital Management. Hahahahaha. Same names same faces in our current melt-up. You might also check out Big Oil & Their Bankers in the Persian Gulf, by Dean Henderson. This stuff is not at all new. The crash of 1929 had the same MO. I think the real turning point was after the assassination of Lincoln which brought the end of the greenback. You need to look into the Warburg connexions along with Morgan and Rothschild.

What is very much new is the internet!!!! Back when, you needed to really dig. It has hard to find the books, which were printed in small editions. Lots of hours in the library. Lots of hours tracing references and bibliographies one at a time. Now we have great people like yourself and Estimable B who try to get the truth out. I should probably post this on the non-virus thread as well.

Posted by: Miss Lacy | Apr 23 2020 20:31 utc | 408

Does anyone have explanation why most hard hit countries in Latin America are on the West Coast? Does this have to do something with the Andes Mountains?

Posted by: Passer by | Apr 23 2020 20:38 utc | 409

A main difference between east Asia lockdowns (apart from proper quarantines of sick people.. not a small issue for sure) is in the way the local media treat their readers/listeners/watchers.
In East Asia, the Confucean approach makes that the experts are providing people with logical and scientific explanations,
while in the West we are getting some sponsored mumbling.
Or a complete total illogical mess for cattle, as in French media, as in a news bulletin starting with "don't put your laundry to dry in the open air in case some one comes less than 1 meter from it" or "don't touch grocery without gloves" and ends with "hospital staffs are greatful that people living near the hospitals are bringing and sending home-made foods and delivered pizzas".
I do believe that the need for trust between humans, some sort of human bound, demonstrated by the med staff accepting such gifts has a better value than the calls for more glass walls.

Posted by: Mina | Apr 23 2020 20:38 utc | 410

oglalla #403

Thanks for responding, I too have learned from Corbett and feel he does have integrity. I guess my issue with him is the matter of duty or responsibility to one's community and society at large.
It is surprising to me that so many around the world are voluntarily quarantining, are they doing it at the point of a gun? Not here in California. are they subject to arrest by the army on the streets? What country is doing that? How are things in Sweden where no quarantine is underway?
Corbett seems to believe that there is no such thing as community responsibility, anything communal is "government" and evil.

Posted by: Babyl-on | Apr 23 2020 20:39 utc | 411

B.! Dr. Drosten is a small child. He is a mainstream scientist. He received threats and resigned. His successor has presented a study from the place where most sufferers. The result: no worse than the flu numbers. Since then I have not heard from the successor. But Drosten tries to intervene further. And I think it's your opinion combined with the science that you think is right.

In the same way, my opinion is scientifically substantiated, with the opposite result. The pressure from the USA, and here from Big Pharma and Gates-Mania for mass vaccinations and nanochip could be a reason.

Posted by: Blocked | Apr 23 2020 20:42 utc | 412

About the so-called undemocratic character of what I call "real quarantines" (i.e. away from the family, if the accommodation does not enable a good isolation of the infected person), let us remember that when people started to be repatriated from Wuhan (all those expats who were working there), they were placed in facilities in various places, be that in France, the US or Australia. That made sense and no one frowned.
A friend from London has caught it. Since her house allowed it and that some families would be there to have a look on her, it was decided by the medical staff of the NHS that an ambulance would come every day and treat her at home. She is now cured, after 3 weeks fighting it at 85.

Posted by: Mina | Apr 23 2020 20:52 utc | 413

@ 418 johnmk - yes... jen who hasn't posted the past few days, brought this to my attention about a week or so ago.. somali refugees are apparently much more affected by this then not... and as you note - do data is made available, or if it is - we are not seeing it..

@ 430 mina... thanks for the story...

Posted by: james | Apr 23 2020 21:03 utc | 414

@Blocked

Gates-Mania for mass vaccinations and nanochip could be a reason.

Mass vaccinations have saved literally billions of lives. You will never be nanochipped. If we get to a point where the government opts to nanochip us, I'll join you on the barricades.

Nonetheless, crude death rates reveal that covid-19 is a much worse disease than the seasonal flu. We'll know just how much worse sooner than we expect, and those who called for the end of quarantine regimes will hopefully be held accountable by voters.

Posted by: fnord | Apr 23 2020 21:06 utc | 415

Miss Lacy @425--

Thanks so much for your reply and hat tip about Giants; I'll be reading it even closer than usual. Yes, I spent many hours in libraries, and commented to the wife that now would be an excellent time to haunt some archival sites.

On the timeline, I'm looking at the 1848 European revolutions as the starting point for the reactionary resurgence against what the Classical Economists, which includes Marx, were calling for regarding the elimination of the Rentier Class and their private banking allies.

Back to Giants. I've only read through Robinson's Introduction, but already I'm speculating that Trump damaged to some degree the solidarity that existed internationally and the pandemic has made its own dent such that the Global Power Elite aren't quite as powerful today as they were when the book was written, and that they will weaken further the more Western economies are dampened by the pandemic. I linked to Hudson's latest video interview on the open thread which you'll want to view. His overall conclusion is we're mired in a Depression and were so prior to the pandemic, the solution being to excise the parasites that caused it. The Depression's essentially been ongoing for 20 years when looking at Shadowstats's Real GDP Chart with no end in sight.

Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 23 2020 21:11 utc | 416

Take you phony "pandemic" bullshit to Germany and stay there.

Posted by: nobody | Apr 23 2020 21:20 utc | 417

'We strongly suggest they reconsider [the approach].'"
Posted by: fairleft | Apr 23 2020 3:54 utc | 246

Well yes, it's quite obvious at the very latest now :

just locking down is not enough, it's half baked. There needs to be close meshed testing and contact tracing. Isolating the known cases, quarantine for travellers, temperature scans and mandatory masks everywhere to have a better chance to stop this and therefore be able to resume economy. Without the right measures resuming economy will be paid with corpses.

"The researchers said that relaxing the lockdown measures without significantly ramping up infection control capacity such as testing could create a humanitarian disaster in the US similar to that experienced by Ecuador, where corpses of coronavirus victims were wrapped in cardboard and left on streets because too many people died.

That conclusion is in line with forecasts by some senior American health officials, including Anthony Fauci, head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, who said that reopening the economy too soon would “backfire”."

"Jaymie Meliker, professor of public health with the Stony Brook University in New York, said the model had its limits because Liu’s team did not put a value on each life lost in the pandemic."

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3081105/flattening-curve-wont-lead-coronavirus-turning-point-study-finds


I've found this author's articles quite a good read:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo
https://medium.com/@joschabach/flattening-the-curve-is-a-deadly-delusion-eea324fe9727
Don't flatten the curve, stop it!

Posted by: JoKuehn | Apr 23 2020 21:40 utc | 418

nay troothsayer, it is to commemorate the chimp's heroic single handed victory over an entire bag of terrorists, i mean pretzels, and a bottle of jack daniels, i mean novichok.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Apr 23 2020 21:43 utc | 419

Ah i just saw that Peter gave you a good answer too:

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 22 2020 20:57 utc | 100

Posted by: JoKuehn | Apr 23 2020 21:44 utc | 420

Signs of sanity within the Outlaw US Empire:

"Majority of Americans Reject 'Astroturf' Anti-Lockdown Protests, Say Social Distancing Orders Must Remain in Place to Fight Pandemic: Only 13% of respondents to a CBS survey said they would return to public spaces in the next few weeks if their cities and states encouraged them to do so."

Unfortunately as author Michael Booth points out, BigLie Media still pushes Trump's propaganda and attempt to exert massive damage on the #1 piece of everyone's property:

"Michael Booth urged journalists to keep in mind the widespread belief among Americans that social distancing must be maintained for the time-being when reporting on the anti-lockdown protests."

Amazingly, the NY Times ran an article that factually reported:

"'As was the case with the Tea Party movement,... established national groups that generally align with the Republican Party have sought to fuel the protests, harnessing their energy in a manner that can increase their profiles and build their membership base and donor rolls.'"

Writer Julia Conley's tells the truth with her conclusion:

"Rather than reflecting widespread concerns about stay-at-home orders, Atlantic writer Amanda Mull wrote on Twitter, the anti-lockdown protests are a product of powerful right-wing groups which are putting the lives of demonstrators at risk to serve corporate interests.

"'Turns out it's kinda hard to astroturf people into voluntarily catching the plague for capitalism,' Mull tweeted."

However, although the numbers were rather small, there were still enough Covidiots involved to easily fuel a large second wave of the pandemic which makes their "protests" criminal acts akin to shouting Fire! within a packed theatre--meaning there's NO 1st Amendment protection for their sort of behavior. DeVos and her ilk behind it all must be arrested and properly charged.

Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 23 2020 21:45 utc | 421

"However vast numbers of people are being thrown into unemployment, or being "furloughed". There are many who have nothing, and can't survive without working." Laguerre.

It is the first duty of government to ensure that all are fed, clothed and housed. That is the very basis of all government. If the government cannot feed the people the people have a right, in natural law, to take what they need from those who are not in need. These are ancient rights long recognised as the bases of society.

What this means now is that those in need must be looked after: there must be a moratorium of debt collection and rent payments, a basic income must be paid to all in order to make up for the lack of employment. People are unemployed because society insists that they must be-clearly this means that society must compensate them for being unemployed. Those who follow society's directions cannot be allowed to be the losers by doing so.

Posted by: bevin | Apr 23 2020 21:58 utc | 422

c1ue | Apr 23 2020 17:26 utc | 388

Please re-read more carefully. I'm not "clinging" to three studies. The Ioannidis et al Stanford review evaluated ALL scientific studies up to April 4. It is not 'one study'. ALL studies point to an infection fatality rate of 0.36 to 0.10. The LA County indicates the IFR may be between 0.15 and 0.09. 0.1 is the IFR of the flu. The University of Oxford survey predicts similar IFR as Ioannidis et al. All research indicates the virus is FAR less dangerous for healthy under-65s than it is for elderly people and those with certain 'comorbidities'.

Are there scientists and statistics experts who disagree with the picture I've painted above? Who are they? Links please! Because ... I've read many comments by you here, c1ue. You never cite any actual scientific studies. I have no idea how you conjecture your New York figures. Can you cite an actual expert who has done research that agrees w your NY numbers?

Posted by: fairleft | Apr 23 2020 22:28 utc | 423

bevin @439--

Merely postponing those payments via a moratorium isn't sufficient as they're still owed. As Hudson points out, such payments must be voided altogether and the creditor/landlord be made whole via government, if at all given they're rent-seekers and parasites to begin with.

Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 23 2020 22:52 utc | 424

Posted by: fairleft | Apr 23 2020 22:28 utc | 440

You don't have good search skills and their or your assertion that ALL studies point to an infection fatality rate of 0.36 to 0.10 is false.

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/

Posted by: Passer by | Apr 23 2020 22:57 utc | 425

"I think it's still deliberate.If citizens want to sue, it's their own governments that should be in the accused box."

Posted by: willie | Apr 23 2020 14:04 utc | 343

So here in Germany we unfortunately cannot sue our government because the Attorney General is bound by instructions. Our judiciary has been subordinated to the executive since the German Empire.
For example, if they wage a war of aggression (as happened before against Yugoslavia) then someone may come and sue. But it will not even come to a trial. The war of aggression is safe and so is other mess.

Our constitution and our constitutional reality are unfortunately very different from one another.
If we want a regular court for our felons, than we need to constitute a new democracy.
One that deserves that name.

Unfortunately for this step one needs the right help.

There is a subtle mood for overthrowing our government here, but what i found was, that some of those people's ideas read much like massacres and kill-lists where you mainly will find known left politicians but interestingly not those reactionaries from CDU, Greens or SPD on it. As if blood shedding was the right way towards a better order...

"It is the first duty of government to ensure that all are fed, clothed and housed. That is the very basis of all government. If the government cannot feed the people the people have a right, in natural law, to take what they need from those who are not in need. "
Posted by: bevin | Apr 23 2020 21:58 utc | 439
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2020/04/it-is-not-authoritarian-to-support-quarantine-measures-it-just-makes-sense.html?cid=6a00d8341c640e53ef0240a4feae87200d#comment-6a00d8341c640e53ef0240a4feae87200d

I would rather change the sentence to:
If the government cannot take care of its people's basic needs such as housing, medical care, food, epidemic mitigation, fair court hearings (equality before the law no matter your bank account) and the implementation of a high degree of popular sovereignty and separation of powers, and ?, the people have the right to overthrow the government and constitute another if voting and the set of rules for establishing a new government doesn't enable one that could fulfill its sole raison d'être in a democratic way (proper implementation of popular sovereignty and separation of powers).

Posted by: JoKuehn | Apr 23 2020 23:11 utc | 426

Passer by | Apr 23 2020 22:57 utc | 442

'Case fatality rate' and 'infection fatality rate' are different.

Posted by: fairleft | Apr 23 2020 23:13 utc | 427

@fairleft

See my comment @535.

Would you accept a short delay in lifting lock-downs to change the approach from 'virus mitigation' to 'virus suppression' - in short, to be more like South Korea?

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Apr 24 2020 0:21 utc | 428


Time to panic, or time to carry on, with awareness?

https://www.globalresearch.ca/de-mystifying-statistics-muddled-clear-headed-thinking-leaders-need-during-times-crisis/5710544

Posted by: Ric G | Apr 24 2020 0:26 utc | 429

SOOOOO many bad takes in this thread. I had a different one in mind before seeing Seamus Paidrig's at about 305. Absolutely moronic. It's like these people haven't been paying attention to the steps China, SK and Vietnam did to stop its spread. "It's not a plague..." OMFGSTFU

To the general sentiment I'm picking up from the mostly non-regulars/barflies: Just because your governments have lied you into wars and other horrible things in the past doesn't mean that they're ALWAYS lying. Nor can you simply group ALL government into the same category. We have state governments, city governments, the federal government and even within each of those sub-agencies that often have no connections to one another. You can count the number of stories about people ACTUALLY being arrested for violating quarantine mandates in the U.S. on one hand. You don't see ANYONE being removed from their homes and moved to government run camps. So far NO additional surveillance has been seriously discussed by gov't or legislated, at least in my state. I un-followed Off-Guardian based not on them having a wrong take, but on how fervently they are treating it and how frequently they post/tweet about it. They literally talk about nothing else now.

400+ comments is a sure sign that there are tons of new and drive-by visitors here, in addition to legitimate trolls using more than one handle to back themselves up. Hoping that things get back to normal around here soon and that 'b' isn't afraid to delete some of the garbage and multi-post rants by the newbies/trolls.

Good night.

Posted by: Mister_Wiggles | Apr 24 2020 0:55 utc | 430

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Apr 24 2020 0:21 utc | 445

Yes, if it were possible. But 'virus suppression' like China has done is not possible anymore, had to happen at initial outbreak, according to the scientists cited in the SCMP news article. Look at the link to the original report: https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.07765

If people can get it through their heads that Covid-19 is only a serious health threat for the elderly and for those with serious health problems (like obesity and (especially) heart problems), then we can start to focus on protecting the vulnerable. We should take the money and state energy spent on locking down the economy and policing healthy people under age 75 and direct that toward retirement homes, nursing homes and hospitals, and toward families who are taking care of their elderly parents.

People should read the following -- WHO Europe director says almost half of Europe COVID-19 deaths in care homes -- and take three lessons from it: (1) we need to fix the neglect and carelessness that caused many of those deaths, (2) Covid-19 targets a limited subset of the population, (3) if they take the now standard precautions, the healthy under-65s could get back to work with minimal risk.

Posted by: fairleft | Apr 24 2020 1:04 utc | 431

@446 Ric G links to a Global Research article dated 23 April 2020.

In it a Dr Gary G. Kohls says this: "The risk of dying of COVID in the US (23,000 deaths so far,".....

A quick trip over to the CDC website shows me that the number of deaths in the USA from Covid-19 "as of April 22" is..... 46,379

Or, put another way, the Good Doctor is disastrously wrong, when even the simplest of fact-checking would tell him how wrong he is.

I pretty much stopped reading the article at that point because, honestly, what's the point?

Posted by: Yeah, Right | Apr 24 2020 1:21 utc | 432

It seems to me that in their eagerness to return to normal social life, an understandable yearning, some posters are looking for arguments and statistics that comfort their position.

From flawed tests, they deduct that large portions of the population have been through Covid19
and have not been seriously maimed or killed.

Testing for antibodies is not a foolproof method of ascertaining contagion and recovery. From random samples, and small samples, conclusions are drawn without regards to validity of con-
clusions.

Lets take for example the actual infected population in the US:
according to Worldometer Coronavirus update live, there are 741,513 active cases and 14,994
critical cases in the US on the 23 April 2020. So, if we assume that 50% of critical cases will end in death then it would seem that only 1.011% percent will die. considering the number of active cases.

Quite a small but misleading percentage of fatalities.

What this calculation fails to consider is the date of initial infection. These 14994 critical cases
would correspond to a certain number of active cases that are older than 14 days.

since 20,000+ people are new cases added daily, we have to remove a certain number of cases to reach the number of active cases 14 days ago >280000-741431= 461431, then FR=3.6%

Which is way more than 1% as given by raw calculation.

Worldometers resolved cases statistics, cases that han an outcome, reveal a 20% FR

This has to be taken into account and augmented considering the number of cases such
as strokes, and other organs failures caused by COVID19.

Besides, not only older folks are at risk, young ones are also killed and maimed by the scars caused to human organs by the virus.

Being young should not generate carelessness.

Am sorry if I do not provide links.


Posted by: CarlD | Apr 24 2020 1:23 utc | 433

@448 fairleft "If people can get it through their heads that Covid-19 is only a serious health threat for the elderly and for those with serious health problems (like obesity and (especially) heart problems)"

Speculative nonsense.

The correct statement is to say that WHEN EVERYONE IS UNDER LOCKDOWN then Covid-19 is only a serious health threat for the elderly and for those with serious health problems.

ABSENT a lockdown then Covid-19 will be a serious health threat to everyone: healthy and unhealthy, elderly and sprightly, skinny or obese.

I just find it hilarious that people like fairleft point to the success of a lockdown and insist that this is "proof" that the lockdown is unnecessary.

Intellectual laziness, at best.

Posted by: Yeah, Right | Apr 24 2020 1:31 utc | 434

Moving these comments to the correct thread

= =

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Apr 24 2020 0:21 utc | 445

Yes, if it were possible. But 'virus suppression' like China has done is not possible anymore, had to happen at initial outbreak, according to the scientists cited in the SCMP news article. Look at the link to the original report: https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.07765

If people can get it through their heads that Covid-19 is only a serious health threat for the elderly and for those with serious health problems (like obesity and (especially) heart problems), then we can start to focus on protecting the vulnerable. We should take the money and state energy spent on locking down the economy and policing healthy people under age 75 and direct that toward retirement homes, nursing homes and hospitals, and toward families who are taking care of their elderly parents.

People should read the following -- WHO Europe director says almost half of Europe COVID-19 deaths in care homes -- and take three lessons from it: (1) we need to fix the neglect and carelessness that caused many of those deaths, (2) Covid-19 targets a limited subset of the population, (3) if they take standard precautions, the healthy under-65s could get back to work with minimal risk.

Posted by: fairleft | Apr 24 2020 1:00 utc | 181

= =

fairleft @Apr24 1:00

I'm glad we agree on changing the approach! IMO it's the botched government approach - delayed response and delayed change in approach - that are responsible for the lengthy lockdowns.

But I disagree with you here:

only a serious health threat for the elderly and for those with serious health problems (like obesity and (especially) heart problems)


USA in particular has a big population of 'at risk' people - most of whom are not elderly. Diabetes, compromised immune systems, hypertension, etc. And we don't know how prevalent or severe lung damage is for those who recover from Covid-19. And, as it's a new disease, there may be long-term effects that we are not yet aware of. All of that argues for a change in approach from "living with the virus" (mitigation) to ending the outbreak (suppression).

AFAICT The only group that benefits from "living with the virus" is Big Pharma.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Apr 24 2020 1:20 utc | 182

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Apr 24 2020 1:32 utc | 435

b is playing right into the hands of the imposters who perpetrated this Covid hoax on the world

Posted by: dickr | Apr 24 2020 1:34 utc | 436

@417 Florin "in sum the curve has been flattened"

I've just gone and had another look at the graph that is updated daily at the CDC website.
This one: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

Current as of 22 April.

Show me where that curve is flattening off.....

Take your time, I'll wait.

Posted by: Yeah, Right | Apr 24 2020 1:44 utc | 437

Merely postponing those payments via a moratorium isn't sufficient as they're still owed. As Hudson points out, such payments must be voided altogether and the creditor/landlord be made whole via government, if at all given they're rent-seekers and parasites to begin with.
karlof1@441

I have no problem with that. I am merely stating the minimal demands that ought to be made; any moratorium should be followed by an audit to discover the origin of the debt. All rents should be based on an accounting of costs. All profits should be taxed. One of the things I like about Hudson is that he realises that the way things are done nowadays, including the free rides that rentiers get, is historically anomalous

JoKuehn@443
Amend away! My purpose was simply to outline the basic position, from which consent to government originates. Your additions are an improvement, do doubt.

Posted by: bevin | Apr 24 2020 1:45 utc | 438

Information which has recently become available seems to have changed circumstances somewhat. The death of the apparently healthy lady in Santa Clara County, California now proven to have occurred on February 6 is one key bit of information. Since, according to the commonly accepted incubation period, and since she was healthy before, she probably contracted the disease before 15 January.

That seriously damages the story that China was responsible for the outbreak since there was no record she was in China, and the time of infection was prior to when many cases had occurred in Wuhan. Other evidence, the results of a test for antibodies in the same Santa Clara county, released several days ago, and the results today of a New York wide test for antibodies, should be enough to expose any stories claiming Chinese responsibility for the virus outbreak in the US as a canard, since the level of penetration by the virus makes it appear to have been a more long-term development.

Suspicions of the rationale for the temporary closure of the yankee lab installations at Fort Detrick Maryland in the summer of 2019 may be relevant here. Somewhere I saw that there were pneumonia outbreaks in old folks homes near Fort Belvoir, northern Virginia (not that far from Fort Detrick, Maryland) in the autumn of 2019. As I recall there have been also reports that the deaths of old people from flu related pneumonia and suggestions of deaths from vaping were also reported during the winter of 2019, prior to when the covid outbreak became the centre of attention.

I also have personal knowledge of a friend in her late 50s who lives outside of Stuttgart, Germany who barely survived a pneumonia attack which required her being artificially unconscious on a ventilator for a prolonged period around September, 2019. In addition, I remember reports that there may have been unexplained pneumonias in Lombardia and elsewhere in Northern Italy during the winter prior to the virus becoming big news outside of China.

All of this, it seems to me, exposes the China accusations made by yankee propagandists as canards. The widespread presence of antibodies in people in different areas of the yankee state, Santa Clara County, but also now the State of New York, and earlier reports concerning Boston, and the February 6 death, indicate that the Virus has likely been present in the US for at least several months. It may also have been present elsewhere, but undiscovered, and we have no clue as to why they decided to close the Fort Detrick installation which, if I am not mistaken, they may have since reopened.

These new facts also tend to lend support to those sceptical of lockdown quarantines since they indicate a level of virulence less intense than indicated by media statistics based on known cases, though they do indicate a high level of communicability. All of these facts have to be intelligently evaluated to come to a determination of what the right plan to follow should be, and, of course potential economic damages and damages to the rule of law should also be taken into account.

Posted by: exiled off mainstree | Apr 24 2020 1:49 utc | 439

For whatever it is worth, here is the WHO definition of "death by Covid-19". I believe it is the same definition as used by the CDC:
"COVID-19 death is defined for surveillance purposes as a death resulting from a clinically compatible illness in a probable or confirmed COVID-19 case, unless there is a clear alternative cause of death that cannot be related to COVID disease (e.g. trauma). There should be no period of complete recovery between the illness and death."

Seems pretty sensible to me, if only because it removes as much subjectivity from the definition as can be reasonably expected.

Someone who is positive to Covid-19 dies in a car crash? Not a Covid-19 death.
Someone who is positive to Covid-19 dies of pneumonia? OK, that's a Covid-19 death.

As I said, pretty sensible. Otherwise you are going to have nay-sayers splitting hairs all day long.

Posted by: Yeah, Right | Apr 24 2020 2:01 utc | 440

Astonishing how quickly stupidity sets in amongst commentators who have neither experience with nor responsibility for the lives of others. They show themselves so quickly... unserious.

Posted by: steve laudig | Apr 24 2020 2:15 utc | 441

I suggest you go to European Mortality Monitoring Project https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/
They probably have the best statistics and most coherent breakdowns of the numbers. They also show that the flu season in both 2017 and 2018 was just as lethal. The graphs you show compare to a *5 year average* (not indicating which 5 years) whereas what is required is a comparison with the highest previous levels, because as you will see from their data, in a bad flu season, such as in 2017, numbers are comparable, and yet no restrictive measures were taken. I suggest reading Dr. John Lee's recent series of articles in The Spectator. I have worked through flu pandemics, in London teaching hospitals in the 80s and 90s, where staffing levels have been pushed to the brink. If the MSM had behaved in the panic inducing manner they do now, I have no doubt outcomes would have been much worse, because let's just say medical judgement calls are not at their best when physicians and other hospital personnel are overly stressed. We can see this in some of the extraordinary information coming out about the questionable choices and protocols concerning ventilator therapy.

I'll admit that initially the behaviour of China indicated a need for serious concern, and some degree of lockdown. But for the past two weeks, there has been more than enough evidence emerging to seriously question the need for extending the quarantine. Figures in Norway, Denmark, Austria, Germany, Hungary, the Baltics, Greece, and more, show no higher mortality rates than usual, and while Sweden shows figures comparable to Britain, they did not enforce any lockdown measures, and left all businesses open, which means their figures should have been significantly worse. This certainly raises large questions, particularly since we know that in Britain, France and the US, physicians are being told to put COVID on death certificates even if it is only suspected. This requirement is completely unprecedented. Physicians never *guess* whether a patient died from a virus, it is completely absurd, and unethical, but that is now what government agencies are requiring, apparently to bolster the numbers, rather than admitting the embarrassing fact that they may have made a huge gaff. The initial models which induced the media panic fell apart quickly, and no epidemiologist was taking the Imperial College model seriously from the start, it was a highly suspect document. Their role in this narrative needs to be heavily scrutinized in the near future. MOA is in a state of MSM induced panic, and it shows from some of the frankly amusing "facts" about the flu, (which we apparently all have herd immunity to - thanks for that one, I've needed a good laugh.) I very much respect the stand of Off-Guardian, and will keep an eye on their work.

Posted by: Em | Apr 24 2020 2:50 utc | 442

Trump thinks that an injection of isopropyl alcohol, bleach or Mr. Clean might cure Covid-19.

That's the Commander-in-Chief and leader of the free world that nutjobs protesting Covid-19 restrictions waving Trump 2020 and Don't tread on me flags and evangelicals who will never get Covid cause they're covered in the blood of Jesus support.

Now if only they'd all rush home to try what Trump thinks might work; the world would be a little more disinfected...of ignorance.

Posted by: Circe | Apr 24 2020 3:31 utc | 443

How does one explain the lack of cases in Australia and New Zealand, with minimal deaths, and where states can go for days without reporting even a carrier, let alone a death.

Western Australia has had six deaths with about an average age of 75 years.

Is the lock down working brilliantly - I have a shamans anti-tiger device on my verandah. As I have seen no tigers, is it a superb device?

Are there different strains of Covid19 virus and we just got hit with the 'village idiot' virus?

In a great panic, when it snows in Siberia, apparently everyone in Australia has to wear a fur coat. One solution prescribed for all countries.

We have destroyed our economy. Thousands of businesses will never open again.

And we won't even mention the calamity Modi has created for India!

Posted by: Ric G | Apr 24 2020 3:37 utc | 444

@459 Em, I would advise you to go to the CDC website here:
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html

Look for the graph entitled "Pneumonia, Influenza and COVID-19 Mortality Data through the week ending April 11, 2020, as of April 16, 2020"

The curve conforms to the graph that b displayed. Note also that it shows the "seasonal baseline" and the "epidemic threshold" and (important for your argument) it also goes back enough to clearly show the spike from the 2017-2018 influenza peak. Note that the 2018 spike was not "just as lethal".

Far, far, far from it.

As for your European Mortality Monitoring Project graphs, I must be missing something because they definitely do not prove that "the flu season in both 2017 and 2018 was just as lethal". one look at the "excess mortality" graph makes that very clear: the acceleration is MUST higher and is showing no signs of plateau. For all you and I and the EMMP are concerned that blue line is going to keep going up, up, up until it disappears off the top of the page.

NOTE ALSO that the data for "Week 16" on all the "Pooled deaths" graphs is uncomplete and, hence, speculative. That incompleteness accounts for the "last-week-dip" that is shown in *all* of the graphs. Look at them again during the "Week 18" update and see if they haven't turned sharply upwards in the intervening period.

Basically, unless I am not reading those graphs correctly they are saying the very opposite to what you are claiming.


Posted by: Yeah, Right | Apr 24 2020 3:44 utc | 445

Em @459

1) This is not "a bad flu season". It's an entirely new virus. These are completely separate events with very different characteristics.

2) We have to careful how we use 'excess mortality'. It is "excess" because it's compared against what is expected. As I recall, the flu season in at least one of the years you cited (2017 or 2018) was bad because the flu shot was ineffective. That is not the case this year.

3) Covid-19 mortality would be much greater if lock-down measures were not in place. You're essentially trying to justify lifting lock-downs because they are effective. LOL.

We see similar mistakes made time and time again by commenters that want to justify lifting the lock-downs asap.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Apr 24 2020 3:56 utc | 446

In a reaction to an unseen virus, we have torn loose the money printer from the collapsing real economy.

Is this a deliberate plan by the bankers to 'buy the world for the price of a shoelace'?

If it is not, then they will certainly not let a 'good crisis' go to waste!

A quote:

In the past, an inflationary collapse has usually affected currencies in isolation; but the modern tendency for governments to coordinate their inflationary stimulations raises a new factor, of strains between currencies collapsing at the same time but at different rates.

The most notable experience of it in modern times was in several European countries following the First World war. The inflations were individual to the nations, but the cause was the same, and Austria’s inflationary collapse ran ahead of Germany’s. A passage from a man who witnessed it, the Austrian writer Stefan Zweig, in his autobiographical The World of Yesterday vividly describes the consequences:

Every hotel in Vienna was filled with these vultures [foreign tourists]; they bought everything from toothbrushes to landed estates, they mopped up private collections and antique shop stocks before their owners, in their distress, woke to how they were being plundered. Humble hotel clerks from Switzerland, stenographers from Holland would put up in the deluxe suites of the Ringstrasse hotels. Incredible as it may seem, I can vouch for it as an eyewitness that Salzburg’s first-rate Hotel de l’Europe was occupied for a period by English unemployed, who, because of Britain's generous dole were able to live more cheaply at that distinguished hostelry than in their slums at home. Whatever was not nailed down disappeared. The tidings of cheap living and cheap goods in Austria spread far and wide; greedy visitors came from Sweden from France; more Italian French Turkish and Romanian was spoken than German in Vienna's business district.[ii]

Among the Austrians impoverished in their own communities, the law-abiding starved and those prepared to break food rationing laws thrived. Savers, who had patriotically bought government bonds, lost everything. Germans from across the border, whose currency was yet to enter its final collapse, could swill six litres of Austrian beer for one of German, adding to the foreign revelry in Austria’s misery.

In our contemporary fiat collapse, differences in its rate will create similar openings for an unsettling life arbitrage. In business dealings, any vestiges of decency and compassion are early victims as those with an early understanding of the opportunities provided by a monetary collapse profit from the innocence of the ignorant. But Germany was to suffer the inflationary fate of Austria the following year. Again, from Zweig:

A pair of shoe laces cost more than a shoe had once cost, no, more than a fashionable store with two thousand pairs of shoes had cost before; to repair a broken window more than the whole house had formerly cost, a book more than the printers shop with a hundred presses. For $100 one could buy rows of six-storey houses on Kurfürstendamm and factories were to be had for the old equivalent of a wheelbarrow…

…Towering over all of them was the gigantic figure of the super-profiteer Stinnes expanding his credit and in thus exploiting the mark he bought whatever was for sale, coal mines and ships, factories and stocks, castles and country estates, actually for nothing because every payment, every promise became equal to naught. Soon a quarter of Germany was in his hands and, perversely, the masses who in Germany always became intoxicated at a success that they can see with their eyes, cheered him as a genius.

Posted by: Ric G | Apr 24 2020 3:57 utc | 447

Two corrections and an update for my post @462:
"MUST" should be "MUCH"
"are concerned" should be "know"

Finally, an additional point: all these graphs that Em has linked to compare past influenza mortality when there *wasn't* any attempt at a lockdown against Covid-19 mortality *during* a lockdown. Yet the "pooled deaths" and the "excess mortality" charts still show the data for Covid-19 accelerating much faster and there is *no* data in those graphs that would suggest that this acceleration is going to slow any time soon.

And that *during* a global lockdown. Let that sink in.

I for one would *not* want to see what it is capable of doing *without* a lockdown, though I suspect very much that the EMMP will have to switch over to logarithmic charts pretty damn quick.

Posted by: Yeah, Right | Apr 24 2020 3:58 utc | 448

@461 Ric G

In a great panic, when it snows in Siberia, apparently everyone in Australia has to wear a fur coat. One solution prescribed for all countries.

And China sneezed and everyone caught the virus.

Covid crashed the party and burst Wall Street's bubble.

Shit happens and life's a bitch. Get used to it, adapt and save for the next rainy day.

Posted by: Circe | Apr 24 2020 3:59 utc | 449

Ric G @Apr24 3:37

Ric, the lock-downs are a blunt instrument. They put into place when we didn't know how to effectively counter the disease.

I've been arguing that we need to change how we address the virus before we lift the lock-downs. IMO we should shift to a pro-active methodology like South Korea. It would allow healthy people to leave a normal life.

As sensible as it would be, changing the strategy doesn't seem to be something that TPTB are interested in. And it doesn't seem to something that libertarians are interested in either. All we hear from those who complain about the lock-downs is that they must be lifted immediately.

The virus is not a hoax. It's not just a bad flu season. And it's not just a danger to the old. So the best way to lift the lock-downs is to change how we address the virus so that the lock-downs can be lifted in a responsible way.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Apr 24 2020 4:08 utc | 450

@461 "How does one explain the lack of cases in Australia and New Zealand, with minimal deaths, and where states can go for days without reporting even a carrier, let alone a death."

It's a funny ol' thing, isn't it, those countries that promptly and thoroughly follow the advice of their health professions have the best outcomes.
Can't imagine why....

"Western Australia has had six deaths with about an average age of 75 years."

It's a funny ol' thing, isn't it, those countries that promptly and thoroughly follow the advice of their health professions have the best outcomes.
Can't imagine why....

"Is the lock down working brilliantly - I have a shamans anti-tiger device on my verandah. As I have seen no tigers, is it a superb device?"

It's a funny ol' thing, isn't it, those countries that promptly and thoroughly follow the advice of their health professions have the best outcomes.
Can't imagine why....

"Are there different strains of Covid19 virus and we just got hit with the 'village idiot' virus?"

It's a funny ol' thing, isn't it, those countries that promptly and thoroughly follow the advice of their health professions have the best outcomes.
Can't imagine why....

"In a great panic, when it snows in Siberia, apparently everyone in Australia has to wear a fur coat. One solution prescribed for all countries."

It's a funny ol' thing, isn't it, those countries that promptly and thoroughly follow the advice of their health professions have the best outcomes.
Can't imagine why....

I can't be bothered to go on, except to point out that all this talk about old-age pensioners in Perth, or Sumatran Tigers, or Siberia Snowfalls all collapse in the face of one simple counter-point: this is a GLOBAL outbreak.

You know, a "pandemic".

It is occurring more-or-less simultaneously all around the world, not just in Perth, or just in Sumatra, or just in Siberia.

Every country in the world is grappling with this, and it is a demonstrable fact that some countries are having much better success in wresting this thing to the ground. Other countries are just thrashing around in agony.

And once more, because this never gets old: It's a funny ol' thing, isn't it, those countries that promptly and thoroughly follow the advice of their health professions have the best outcomes.

I have no idea why. Just luck, I suppose....

Posted by: Yeah, Right | Apr 24 2020 4:10 utc | 451

Posted by: Avid Lurker | Apr 23 2020 18:21 utc | 404

Sorry, but Sweden did not perform well at all. I said that before several days too. All neighbouring countries performed far better than Sweden, (Norway, Denmark, Finland, etc.) please do not give me a country that is number 7 in the world in deaths per population as an example. Thanks.

Posted by: Passer by | Apr 23 2020 19:24 utc | 413

How's your reading comprehension ability these days ? The link and attached quotes FROM "Professor Johan Giesecke, one of the world’s most senior epidemiologists, advisor to the Swedish Government (he hired Anders Tegnell who is currently directing Swedish strategy), the first Chief Scientist of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, and an advisor to the director general of the WHO, lays out with typically Swedish bluntness why he thinks:" ...

Passer by Are you seriously trying to discredit this gentleman's professional experience ?? More to the point, I myself said absolutely NOTHING about Sweden per se. The term drive-by shooting springs to mind. So perhaps your intent actually was to shoot the Swedish messenger via innuendo. Shoot !! Ready !! Aim !! Nice hatchet job, pal.

Posted by: Avid Lurker | Apr 24 2020 4:18 utc | 452

@464 Ric G

One man's misery is another man's ecstasy.

That's why I'm not buying into the brotherly love and sudden appreciation for unsung heroes that Covid is supposedly inspiring in the mass, because I witnessed the worst of humanity at a time when I was living hell.

So I already know how the next chapter reads.

Of course even knowing what I know of human nature's rotten core, I still cry out for compassion and decency. Silly me!

Posted by: Circe | Apr 24 2020 4:44 utc | 453

@Yeah, Right | Apr 24 2020 4:10 utc | 468

Funny ol' thing?

Cheese.

Don't do that again, it's not clever.

Posted by: Gravatomic | Apr 24 2020 4:46 utc | 454

@ 468 yeah, right... lol.. thanks for that - especially the last line!

Posted by: james | Apr 24 2020 4:46 utc | 455

it's just the regular flu? https://twitter.com/i/status/1252909788561801216

mass graves don't look too regular to me...

Posted by: james | Apr 24 2020 4:58 utc | 456

@469 Avid Lurker, I've just listened to that interview, and I've come away with a few observations:
a) His point about the ICL report not being peer-reviewed and unpublished is valid. That it has been criticized is also a valid observation.
b) But his poo-pooing of it seems at odds with the back and forth of the interview, where the interviewer said that the paper predicted around 20,000 under a full lockdown, and when Giesecke asked he is told that there have been around 13,000 dead *so* *far* during this full lockdown. That the data appears to be in agreement with the model is something Giesecke just shrugs away, which is odd to say the least.
c) His claim that "The results will eventually be similar for all countries" is presented without any evidence. None. "Wait and see" is his only response when pressed on it.

Basically, he comes across as opinioned - and good for him for that - but not authoritative.

As far as that interview is concerned he knows because he knows because he knows, but apparently he has no data whatsoever to support that knowledge.

Posted by: Yeah, Right | Apr 24 2020 5:04 utc | 457

@468

Strangely enough, Australia was not that fast at locking down.

The schools were one of the last to close as they did not want to deprive the kiddies of their education.

Now let me see, the virus, despite being a pandemic, has almost no effect on children. The children are usually the greatest spreaders of any disease, just one hug grandma!

If I wanted to shutdown a pandemic, I would quarantine the children and the old as my first move!

There is something about this whole story that just does not pass the sniff test. Same as 9-11.

Posted by: Ric G | Apr 24 2020 5:06 utc | 458


Precautions we should take, from the Australian experience, with hindsight, for Australia:

1 - Shut down cruise ships, close borders to international tourism.

2 - Quarantine those over 70 and those with a chronic illness, or at least make them take an anti-body test every two weeks. At the first sign of symptoms, they are shutdown.

3 - Free masks at the super markets and temperature checks. Any symptoms sent for testing.

4 - Everyone in the nation should be tested once a month so we know the spread of the infection.

5 - Everyone else lives and works their lives as normal.

6 - Proceed until this wave of the disease has passed. Then all can return to normal.

Posted by: Ric G | Apr 24 2020 5:34 utc | 459

b,

Disappointed by your post - but not surprised. We always knew you were a leftist, you told us so on occasion. Without firm principles of Freedom, one can be expected to take your position. Please get back to basics - read Bastiat, What is Not Seen. The negative health effects of lockdown and economic recession are going to be massive.

Posted by: Finn Andreen | Apr 24 2020 5:52 utc | 460

That Which is Seen, and That Which is Not Seen
Frédéric Bastiat
thanks.. interesting reading...

Posted by: james | Apr 24 2020 6:17 utc | 461

Posted by: fairleft | Apr 24 2020 1:04 utc | 448

If people can get it through their heads that Covid-19 is only a serious health threat for the elderly and for those with serious health problems (like obesity and (especially) heart problems), then we can start to focus on protecting the vulnerable.

The fact that that police state-mongers reject this rational program with such frothing vehemence is proof that all their professed concern for the vulnerable is just so many crocodile tears, and that they're really promoting their irrational totalitarian program for its own sake.

All the inner fascists are coming out. That's by far the worst symptom of this epidemic. By far.

Posted by: Russ | Apr 24 2020 6:24 utc | 462

Posted by: Yeah, Right | Apr 24 2020 5:04 utc | 474

His claim that "The results will eventually be similar for all countries" is presented without any evidence. None. "Wait and see" is his only response when pressed on it.

In other words exactly the same as your claim that the results will eventually be better according to how severe a lockdown a country imposed.

Posted by: Russ | Apr 24 2020 6:27 utc | 463

I am surprised how fast and completely even intelligent people can be brought to a panic. I will remind myself of that fact when I read MOA. I had expected more backbone and brains.

Posted by: g kaiser | Apr 24 2020 6:32 utc | 464

As far as that interview is concerned he knows because he knows because he knows, but apparently he has no data whatsoever to support that knowledge.

Posted by: Yeah, Right | Apr 24 2020 5:04 utc | 474

Yeah, Right What he did say/imply is that the world needs more time in order to gather more reliable data re COVID-19. The interviewer agreed to do so. Not to mention that he is officially retired. I was esp. heartened that Giesecke tore into that unpublished, unpeer-reviewed paper by Neil Ferguson et al.:

"The Imperial College paper was “not very good” and he has never seen an unpublished paper have so much policy impact."

Speaking of that pillar of predictive reliability (Ferguson):

Intellectual Fraud. Covid-19: Neil Ferguson, the Liberal Lyssenko, by Thierry Meyssan

"Professor Neil Ferguson, high priest of liberal hospital management and inventor of the generalized containment against Covid-19.

Professor Neil Ferguson’s Charlatanism

"Professor Ferguson is still the European reference for epidemic modelling.

- Yet it was he who, in 2001, convinced Prime Minister Tony Blair to have 6 million cattle slaughtered to stop the foot-and-mouth epidemic (a decision that cost 10 billion pounds and is now considered an aberration).
- In 2002, he calculated that mad cow disease would kill about 50,000 British people and another 150,000 when transmitted to sheep. There were actually 177.
- In 2005, he predicted that bird flu would kill 65,000 Britons. There were a total of 457.

… Simon Cauchemez, who was his right-hand man in 2009, now heads the modelling unit at the Pasteur Institute. He is, of course, a member of the Scientific Committee of the Élysée, where he proposed generalized confinement. This committee was set up by the Director General of Health, Professor Jérôme Salomon, the spiritual son and former technical advisor to Bernard Kouchner."

Posted by: Avid Lurker | Apr 24 2020 6:38 utc | 465

Ric G @461

Posted by myself April 12 ....

Death toll Australia - 59 (12/04/2020)

The Common Denominator

Unpalatable (for some), but nevertheless.....

• 78-year-old Diamond Princess passenger James Kwan died in Perth
• a 95-year-old female resident of Sydney’s Dorothy Henderson Lodge died
• an 82-year-old male Dorothy Henderson Lodge resident died
• a 90-year-old female Dorothy Henderson Lodge resident died
• a 77-year-old woman died in a Sydney hospital after arriving from Queensland
• an 86-year-old man from Sydney died
• an 81-year-old woman died after having close contact with a confirmed case at Ryde Hospital
• a 77-year-old woman who had been rushed to hospital off the Ruby Princess died in Sydney
• 68-year-old Voyager of the Seas passenger Garry Kirstenfeldt died in Toowoomba
• three men in their 70s died at Victorian hospitals
• 73-year-old Celebrity Solstice passenger Ray Daniels died in Perth
• a 91-year-old female Dorothy Henderson Lodge resident died
• a 75-year-old Ruby Princess passenger died at Caboolture hospital north of Brisbane
• a man in his 80s died at a Melbourne hospital
• a Ruby Princess passenger in her 80s died at North-West Regional Hospital in Tasmania
• a woman in her 80s who acquired the disease overseas died at Canberra Hospital
• a Ruby Princess passenger in his 80s died at Royal Hobart Hospital
• a 95-year-old female Dorothy Henderson Lodge resident died
• 67-year-old Ruby Princess passenger Janet Lieben died at Orange Base Hospital
• a woman in her 60s died at a Victorian hospital
• a woman in her 70s died at a Victorian hospital
• an 85-year-old male Ruby Princess passenger died at Darling Downs Hospital in Toowoomba
• 82-year-old Mike, father-in-law of Labor MP Ged Kearney, died at Canberra Hospital
• a 91-year-old male Ruby Princess passenger died at Port Macquarie Base Hospital
• a 76-year-old male Ruby Princess passenger died at Westmead Hospital
• an 80-year-old male Ruby Princess passenger died at Westmead Hospital
• a 61-year-old man died at Hornsby Hospital
• a 78-year-old Ruby Princess passenger died at The Prince Charles Hospital in Brisbane
• an 86-year-old male Opal Care Bankstown resident died at Liverpool Hospital
• an 85-year-old man who was a close contact of a confirmed case died at Liverpool Hospital
• a man in his 50s died at a Victorian hospital, the youngest death so far
• a Victorian woman in her 80s died at home
• an 84-year-old male Ruby Princess passenger died at Royal Perth Hospital
• a 90-year-old male Dorothy Henderson Lodge Resident died
• an 87-year-old female Ruby Princess passenger died in NSW
• a 90-year-old male Opal Care Bankstown resident died at Liverpool Hospital
• Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews announced an 11th person had died in the state
• 75-year-old Frank Ferraro died at Royal Adelaide Hospital after acquiring COVID-19 interstate
• a Ruby Princess passenger in his 80s died at North-West Regional Hospital in Tasmania
• an Artania passenger in his 70s died at Joondalup Health Campus in Perth
• a woman in her 70s who had travelled overseas died at Royal Perth Hospital
• a 62-year-old female Ruby Princess passenger died at Royal Adelaide Hospital
• a Victorian woman in her 80s died at hospital, the state’s 12th victim
• a 76-year-old man died at the Royal Adelaide Hospital
• a Victorian man in his 80s died at hospital
• a 69-year-old man died at John Hunter Hospital in Newcastle
• an elderly man died at the Northwest Hospital in Tasmania
an 82-year-old man died in Sydney’s Royal Prince Alfred Hospital after contracting the virus
an elderly woman in her 70s died at Northwest Regional Hospital in Tasmania, the state’s fifth death
a former Ruby Princess passenger, a 74-year-old man, died in Royal Adelaide Hospital

Posted by: ted01 | Apr 24 2020 6:55 utc | 466

Link for above @483

The elderly are dying

Posted by: ted01 | Apr 24 2020 7:04 utc | 467

@484

Good post Tedoi.

Maybe we, in Australia, are made of jarrah hardwood, and in the Northern hemisphere they are made of candy floss, but I doubt it!

We have destroyed the Australian economy, throwing generations into debt, ruining hundreds of thousands of businesses, in a futile effort to save those who were destined to die shortly anyway.

Personally, I would prefer to develop anti-bodies to Covid-19 as I suspect that Covid-20/21 is going to be a hell of a lot worse for the unprotected, those who hid their candy-asses in their bunker beneath the woodshed, before finally surfacing and looking around, bewildered, as if they were financially ruined Meerkats!

Where is the sanity in our conversations?

Posted by: Ric G | Apr 24 2020 7:25 utc | 468

It's really quite a phenomenon occurring here. This often happens when a subject of discussion involves highly technical, yet unsettled questions. It almost always crops up when things like peak oil, global climate, or diseases and vaccines, for example, come up for discussion. Here's how I will lay it out:

You end up with three camps, which mutually despise each other. You will have conspiracy missionaries who insist that dark forces are in play, waiting to take insidious advantage. Then, you will get disillusionment missionaries, who have lost faith in the experts, who they insist are about to create a disaster. And also, you get the acceptancy missionaries, who have come to accept the simple, prosaic narrative.

And these three camps mobilize to wage all-out war with each other. Their missionary zeal (at least ostensibly) is directed at converting everyone else to become persuadants to their unquestionable beliefs. It's quite a fine show, although there is usually a lot of mayhem.

Posted by: blues | Apr 24 2020 7:35 utc | 469

@480 "In other words exactly the same as your claim that the results will eventually be better according to how severe a lockdown a country imposed."

No, quite the reverse, actually. Those countries that went into lockdown early and hard *have* done better and *continue* to do better than those countries that flipped and flopped with respect to their lockdown policies.

That is demonstrably true: South Korea got on top of their epidemic quickly. Vietnam never allowed an epidemic to develop. Australia on a per-capita basis has done an order of magnitude better job than the USA.

It's all there in the figures, sunshine. You only need to open your eyes and read them.

Posted by: Yeah, Right | Apr 24 2020 8:00 utc | 470

It's really quite a phenomenon occurring here. This often happens when a subject of discussion involves highly technical, yet unsettled questions. It almost always crops up when things like peak oil, global climate, or diseases and vaccines, for example, come up for discussion. Here's how I will lay it out: ...
Posted by: blues | Apr 24 2020 7:35 utc | 486

Strong Inference, by John Platt

According to Platt, the following procedure should be adopted: (1) devising alternative hypotheses (or possible answers); (2) devising a crucial experiment – or several of them – with alternative possible outcomes, each of which will, when possible, exclude one or more of the hypotheses (or possible answers); (3) carrying out the experiment to obtain a clean result; and (1’) recycling the procedure, making subhypotheses to evaluate remaining possibilities.

In stark contrast to Platt blues, do you have any inkling just how dogmatic your sentiments come across as ??

Platt again: "These comments upset a number of those present. An electron microscopist said, "Gentlemen, this is off the track.
This is philosophy of science."

Leo Szilard retorted, "I was not quarreling with third-rate scientists: I was quarreling with first-rate scientists."

Posted by: Avid Lurker | Apr 24 2020 8:02 utc | 471


China has a lot of experience with Sars, swine flu, bird flu, etc, so when I saw China shutting down Wuhan I assumed someone had accidentally released a military grade virus.

If every other country had immediately shut down its borders then this would have been a 'nothing-burger'. To now blame the Chinese for deception is the height of absurdity.

And I also assumed that when this virus hit the US, with a combination of the US health system, the US diet, and the US ego, then this virus was going to be one for the ages!

The Australian/New Zealand experience is also being presented, as a balance, to help subdue the 'dogs of panic'!

And a lot of simple truth can be hidden behind an expert with a wheelbarrow full of stats and graphs. 'Your mission, is to baffle them with bullshit'!

Posted by: Ric G | Apr 24 2020 8:05 utc | 472

@489 "China has a lot of experience with Sars, swine flu, bird flu, etc, so when I saw China shutting down Wuhan I assumed someone had accidentally released a military grade virus".

That's quite some leap of logic there, Ric.

I'm assuming tou aren't trying to imply that those other pandemics were bioweapons.

In which case I fail to follow the arguments. Isn't it simpler to assume that China knows what it is to be burnt by a viral disease, so it was determined to go in hard the next time one appeared?

Posted by: Yeah, Right | Apr 24 2020 8:17 utc | 473

@482 Sorry, Lurker, I thought you wanted to discuss Giesecke's interview.

I didn't realise that what you really wanted was someone to help you move your goalposts.

No thanks, I'll leave you to it.

Posted by: Yeah, Right | Apr 24 2020 8:24 utc | 474

Yeah, Right 487

Oh I'm sorry, I didn't know you were satisfied the whole thing is over, finished, kaput. I thought on the contrary this Satanic scourge is supposed to keep coming and coming, in ever more severe waves. In that case it would be far too early to tell anything regarding anywhere on Earth.

I'm glad to hear you're rejecting at least that part of the mass lunacy.

Posted by: Russ | Apr 24 2020 8:27 utc | 475

Several serological studies for the presence of IgM-IgG antibodies have concluded that the percentage of individuals infected with the COVID-19 virus SARS-CoV-2 is 50-85x higher than the recorded cases, due to recovered asymptomatic cases that were not tested during the infection using the RT-PCR test.

Unfortunately, this serological test yields very high false positives “due to past or present infection with non-SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus strains, such as coronavirus HKU1, NL63, OC43, or 229E.” Yes, if a person has had a common cold they would likely test positive!!!
https://www.biomedomics.com/products/infectious-disease/covid-19-rt/

Other limitations mentioned by this manufacturer include:
(1) Lacks FDA review due to the urgency of testing;
(2) “Negative results do not rule out SARS-CoV-2 infection, particularly in those who have been in contact with the virus. Follow-up testing with a molecular diagnostic should be considered to rule out infection in these individuals.”;
(3) “Results from antibody testing should not be used as the sole basis to diagnose or exclude SARS-CoV-2 infection or to inform infection status.” “The COVID-19 IgM/IgG Rapid Test can be used to screen patients suspected of having been affected by the novel coronavirus. However, results of test should not be the only basis for diagnosis.”;
(4) Only used on fresh samples and tested immediately;
(5) “Results are valid 10 minutes after sample and buffer are combined in the cassette sample well. “;
(6) This test has a low sensitivity, as it has been determined to detect only 88.66% of those confirmed to be positive by the PCR test;
(7) This test have a low specificity of 90.63%, as 9.37% of those patients tested were not SARS-CoV-2 infected;

Other issues with serological testing in the fore mentioned studies include”:
(1) Lack of random sampling for age, sex, ethnic background, socio-economic status etc.
(2) Potential of super-recruiter bias from word of mouth of the drive by test site(s)

See also this video by a doctor of pathology on limitations of serological testing for COVID-19
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R8Pv77R3g1E

Given the measured sensitivity and selectivity from the above test kit, one can calculate the following for a 1% infection rate (10,000) among one million people:
Positive cases found =8,866 (0.8866%)
False positives found= 92,763 (9.2763%)
Ratio of false/real =92,763/92,763+8,866 = 91.28% of positive tests are false

Thus the herd immunity is greatly exaggerated in serological testing. For instance, if a serological study claims that 20% of the population has been exposed to COVID-19, the actual percentage of the population exposed to this virus is actually 1.74%.

All such studies using serological testing should contain a BIG disclaimer on the accuracy of the results.

Posted by: krollchem | Apr 24 2020 8:27 utc | 476

@ Avid Lurker | Apr 24 2020 8:02 utc | 488

I don't know what you are complaining about. I was not talking about scientists; I was talking about bloggers.

Why does my my little paradigm sound 'dogmatic'? If you you can revise or extend my little description, then why not just do that?

What does what I said have to do with 'John Platt's' pronouncements.

(Platt also seems to think that high-energy physics is doing very well. That's just wrong; those physicists are enduring a very bad dry spell. They have a lot of theories, but there has been just one breakthrough in decades -- the Higgs boson discovery.)

Posted by: blues | Apr 24 2020 8:33 utc | 477

bevin@445
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2020/04/it-is-not-authoritarian-to-support-quarantine-measures-it-just-makes-sense.html?cid=6a00d8341c640e53ef0240a5237be8200b#comment-6a00d8341c640e53ef0240a5237be8200b

Amend away!

Not let's amend away?:)

My purpose was simply to outline the basic position, from which consent to government originates.

yes a good starting point.

Your additions are an improvement, do doubt.

Do doubt? Does it mean you doubt that or you don't?
Actually it's not only additions. It makes a difference if you take away from others at your personal discretion of justice
or
unite to constitute a better government, which solves this problem of injustice
in a democratic way, executed by public organizations in a transparent manner.
Although the first one being much easier and more immediate and understandable.
After decades of mafia rags on democracy, one might think that democracy is what they have sold us as such and we might think: Democracy? It's not just institutionalized fraud anyway?
We do not need that. Everybody's gotta look out for themselves....?

Posted by: JoKuehn | Apr 24 2020 8:37 utc | 478

@475 Ric G "Strangely enough, Australia was not that fast at locking down".

Actually, not so strange. The government was working to a plan of graduated lockdown, and was quite explicit about that.

The point was that there was a *plan*, and the govt was taking constant advice from their health officials about when they should move from *that* stage of shutdown to the *next* stage of shutdown.

But each move was an attempt to *act* before the virus got ahead of them, not *react* as the epidemic got out control

The case about schools is a great example: Sco-Mo came under enormous pressure on that yet he stuck to his guns - his health advisors said they were safer going to school so that's what his policy was going to be. And if their advice were to change then his policy would change, but not a moment before.

Have a plan, stick to it. Keep taking advice on how well the plan is working, and if the advice is to change it then.... change it. But not a moment before.

Posted by: Yeah, Right | Apr 24 2020 8:40 utc | 479

The death rate progression follows the fat tail model and not that of the University of Washington. Following current trens the number of dead from COVID-19 in the US will reach 100,000 with another comparable number disabled.
https://covid-19.direct/US?tab=peakdeath

Even the poor levels of social distancing and other confinement methods have been able to reduce the number of new confirmed cases and death substantially. On April 1st the death rate was 21.3% and has dropped to 10.3% as of April 18th

The exponential growth of cases has been slowed and is temporally changing to a logistical curve. This will last until restrictions on large gatherings is lifted, at which time outbreaks will add additional spikes in both new cases and deaths.

On the positive side the medical community have learned a lot about the disease progression and how to improve the chances of survival. Unfortunately, many of those who now survive will be disabled, perhaps for life.

The high incidence of comorbidities among the population will continue to result in a high number of deaths from COVID-19 infection once the economy returns to "normal". These pre-existing health issues are mostly due to the standard American diet (SAD) that his proliferated around the world. More specifically, the SAD diet leads to metabolic syndrome. There is no chance that a significant number of persons on the SAD diet will choose to eat health and be physically active. Thus the herd will continue to be thinned making this pandemic worse than the 1918 Kansas flu.

Posted by: krollchem | Apr 24 2020 9:05 utc | 480

Re blues' raising "peak oil, global climate, or diseases and vaccines" implicitly involves scientific investigations, hence underlying scientific methodologies more times than not, hence Platt's landmark. Do you get these connections now ?

Oh, in case you missed it that Platt retrospective was published nearly six decades ago.

Whereas according to Wiki: "The Higgs boson was initially discovered as a new particle in 2012 by the ATLAS and CMS collaborations based on collisions in the LHC at CERN, and the new particle was subsequently confirmed to match the expected properties of a Higgs boson over the following years.

On December 10, 2013, two of the physicists, Peter Higgs and François Englert, were awarded the Nobel Prize in Physics for their theoretical predictions.


@ Avid Lurker | Apr 24 2020 8:02 utc | 488

I don't know what you are complaining about. I was not talking about scientists; I was talking about bloggers.

Why does my my little paradigm sound 'dogmatic'? If you you can revise or extend my little description, then why not just do that?

What does what I said have to do with 'John Platt's' pronouncements.

(Platt also seems to think that high-energy physics is doing very well. That's just wrong; those physicists are enduring a very bad dry spell. They have a lot of theories, but there has been just one breakthrough in decades -- the Higgs boson discovery.)

Posted by: blues | Apr 24 2020 8:33 utc | 494

Posted by: Avid Lurker | Apr 24 2020 9:15 utc | 481

The chief difference between covid-19 and the flu is that covid-19 is explosively contagious and overwhelms all of a community's health services in a few weeks; flu is continual over six months. Recent antibody studies (which seem lower than expected, not boding well for vaccines) suggest that covid-19 is about the same in fatality rate (around 0.1% in most competent countries) as flu, a big difference being the old and vulnerable being hit harder by covid-19. (Also NYC physicians struggled with correct use of ventilators, which Italians saw as life-savers). If comparing fatality rate of HOSPITALIZED flu patients and HOSPITALIZED covid-19 patients (almost the only ones confirmed by PCR), flu is much worse for younger people; covid-19 hits the oldest and those with cardiovascular issues harder. While the main stream media has been trashing these antibody studies showing the much lower fatality rates and asymptomatic 'survivors' (people generally know when they have the flu), the gold standard PCR test is showing the same phenomenon among sailors on the Teddy Roosevelt, where 710 of 4500 so far have tested positive by PCR, with maybe two dozen showing symptoms. A great case study to watch. Even more impressive is Singapore's 330,000 foreign (mostly construction) workers, where a few cases led to testing more and more asymptomatic/ mild symptoms, resulting in 80% of Singapore's 11,000 cases confirmed by PCR being this huge cohort of Bangladeshi and Indians. Singapore has had 12 deaths from covid-19, out of 11,000 cases. Expect the case number to jump when antibody testing of this population is completed. Again, this is a dangerous disease for the vulnerable (as is flu), but is more benign than flu for the vast majority of the population. Of course almost all of our leaders are older than 65, possibly that enters into the crazy decision making?

Posted by: michael888 | Apr 24 2020 9:16 utc | 482

Some lurkers at MoA may learn from this interview of Nassim Nicholas Taleb
https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/the-pandemic-isnt-a-black-swan-but-a-portent-of-a-more-fragile-global-system

Posted by: krollchem | Apr 24 2020 9:17 utc | 483

Obviously the most dangerous authoritarians are our scientific 'experts' who give bad advice. The WHO tweeted in mid January that covid-19 was NOT spread by human-to-human contact (wet market viruses like bird flu are not). This advice blocked travel bans in the West (Asian countries implement travel bans automatically from infected countries; the testing, tracking and quarantining is much easier with very small populations of sick people). This one authoritarian "fact" is probably responsible for more deaths than anything our corrupt incompetent politicians like Cuomo or Trump have done.

Posted by: michael888 | Apr 24 2020 9:24 utc | 484

Posted by: g kaiser | Apr 24 2020 6:32 utc | 481
I am surprised how fast and completely even intelligent people can be brought to a panic. I will remind myself of that fact when I read MOA. I had expected more backbone and brains.

I have made a similar observation amongst pretty much all of my friends and family, myself included: at some point everyone tipped into panic. With some, control transfers back to the cerebrum sooner, with others the cerebellum reigns for longer. It doesn't seem so much a question of morals or intelligence, perhaps rather openness, curiosity and ability to tolerate conflicting information. A few people I know - well educated, bright, street-smart to almost cynicism - have succumbed to fear (and increased drinking) and practically haven't left the house in weeks. They are glued to continuous MSM Covid news and near impervious to other information.

Posted by: Leser | Apr 24 2020 9:28 utc | 485

Posted by: michael888 | Apr 24 2020 9:16 utc | 499

"Of course almost all of our leaders are older than 65, possibly that enters into the crazy decision making?"

That's occurred to me as part of the explanation for a program which essentially demands that all of humanity suspend their lives so the aged and sick can scrounge a few more months of mortal coil. That's in line with the extreme narcissistic way the Boomers in the US have lived their whole lives, after all.

I've also wondered if that demographic profile matches well with the number of erstwhile anti-authoritarians, anti-imperialists, anti-globalists who suddenly have gone full police state.

Posted by: Russ | Apr 24 2020 9:31 utc | 486

The prevailing demograhic for MOA:

American white male over 60, obese plus multiple health issues, poor diet, high risk group for covid 19. Income stream maintained despite isolation. Armchair marxist living a comfortable bourgeoisie lifestyle.

No wonder they don't want to lift the lockdown.

Posted by: ted01 | Apr 24 2020 9:53 utc | 487

Some lurkers at MoA may learn from this interview of Nassim Nicholas Taleb
https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/the-pandemic-isnt-a-black-swan-but-a-portent-of-a-more-fragile-global-system

Posted by: krollchem | Apr 24 2020 9:17 utc | 500

Hey krollchem, the author of your acclaimed article, i.e., Bernard Avishai, cites a hagiographic article re Fauci. So Avishai just tipped his (in-crowd) credentials. cf.:

Exhibit 1

Exhibit 2

Exhibit 3

Nice try !!

Posted by: Avid Lurker | Apr 24 2020 10:01 utc | 488

@ Avid Lurker | Apr 24 2020 9:15 utc | 498

As I said, I was merely describing a way to interpret how bloggers interact when discussing 'unsettled' technical subjects. I was not directly addressing anything about scientific issues at all. So your criticism makes no sense to me. Perhaps you could make an effort to be a bit more diplomatic?

(From a nutritional perspective, I did read that black beans (a cup or two) and sunflower seeds provide a very good balance of copper and zinc, which compete with each other for absorption. Also, I have been convinced that about 6,000 IU of vitamin D3 can be rather strongly protective. I think the microbiologists still have very much to learn about this virus.)

Posted by: blues | Apr 24 2020 10:20 utc | 489

ted01 says:

The prevailing demograhic for MOA:

American white male over 60, obese plus multiple health issues, poor diet, high risk group for covid 19. Income stream maintained despite isolation. Armchair marxist living a comfortable bourgeoisie lifestyle.

No wonder they don't want to lift the lockdown

i think you've nailed it, dude.

i mean, who gives a shit for those 4 or 5 hundred million Indian day labourers now cut off from their 2 dollar-a-day wage anyway?

Posted by: john | Apr 24 2020 10:23 utc | 490

The prevailing demograhic for MOA:

American white male over 60, obese plus multiple health issues, poor diet, high risk group for covid 19. Income stream maintained despite isolation. Armchair marxist living a comfortable bourgeoisie lifestyle.

No wonder they don't want to lift the lockdown.

Posted by: ted01 | Apr 24 2020 9:53 utc | 504

I like your sense of humor !!

Posted by: Avid Lurker | Apr 24 2020 10:31 utc | 491

- Caitlin Johnstone:

"MSM China Hysteria Gets Way Crazier & Dumber"

"It is never a good sign when the political/media class all across the aisle begins loudly trying to out-hawk one another"

Source:
https://consortiumnews.com/2020/04/21/covid-19-msm-china-hysteria-gets-way-crazier-dumber

Posted by: Willy2 | Apr 24 2020 10:31 utc | 492

Hello Mina,yes french media are bottom of the pit.Still french so called intellectuals consider themselves and the french people as "cartesianist" that is,theorizing along the lines of logic,haha.

Posted by: willie | Apr 24 2020 10:38 utc | 493

443#
Danke,Jo Kuehn für Ihre Kommentar.I suppose it is the Karlsruhe based Bundes Verfassungsschutz which decides the receptability of such criminal cases.We need change,preferably without violence.There is hardly any political personnel left in western countries that's not been compromised.

Posted by: willie | Apr 24 2020 10:48 utc | 494

William Gruff #314


On sreroid use and COVID 19 vulnerability in cops.

I guess that applies to US navy and military. Hence all those ships straggling about on the world's oceans.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Apr 24 2020 10:49 utc | 495

Hi, just offering my support on this one. I've followed Off Guardian for over a year and they have posted lots of good material. But looks like they have suffered the equivalent of a Cytokine attack on this issue. Shame, as it has seriously damaged their credibility.

Posted by: Martin Smith | Apr 24 2020 10:50 utc | 496

Jo Kuehn,bevin made a typo Do doubt would be no doubt,don't you think so?

Posted by: willie | Apr 24 2020 11:00 utc | 497

Posted by: ted01 | Apr 24 2020 9:53 utc | 504

"Armchair marxist living a comfortable bourgeoisie lifestyle."

Speaking of which, I noticed that long-time MoA nemesis Louis Proyect, the "unrepentant Marxist", is a hard-core police state lockdownist. Funny how he keeps aligning with the US empire on, well, pretty much everything.

See, there's lots of common ground!

Posted by: Russ | Apr 24 2020 11:05 utc | 498

Awesome levels of monkey shit being hurled here at MOA. Incredible scenes. Agree with Martin @ 513. Off Guardian, along with many otherwise quality alternative stream pundits will suffer significant credibility damage over this. Some real banshees out there. Best to err on the side of caution where pandemics are concerned. Unless you'd like to rid yourself of certain demographics.

@500 krollchem - indeed we are inside one of Talebs fabled events, however entirely predictable.

Posted by: MadMax2 | Apr 24 2020 11:09 utc | 499

Those who would give up essential liberty, to purchase a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety. Benjamin Franklin (1706-1790).

Posted by: James Richard | Apr 24 2020 11:28 utc | 500

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