Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
April 22, 2020

It Is Not 'Authoritarian' To Support Quarantine Measures - It Just Makes Sense

Yesterday James Corbett of The Corbett Report interviewed Kit Knightly of Off-Guardian about the corona crisis. At 18:30 minutes in Corbett finds it "disturbing" that some of the blogs who usually criticize governments, like Moon of Alabama, support the measures governments have taken to lower the speed of the novel coronavirus epidemic.

Corbett then highlights a discussion on Twitter between me and the Off-Guardian account.

It started with this:

vanessa beeley @VanessaBeeley - 5:33 UTC · Apr 9, 2020

#BillGates funded World Health Organisation advocate forced removal of family members fm homes if "tested" positive for #COVID19 even tho test is not proven reliable. So, govts hve corralled us in homes & will now unlawfully raid & extract citizens under poss. false pretext.

I retweeted that and remarked:

Moon of Alabama @MoonofA - 22:30 UTC · Apr 9, 2020
China did this in phase 2 of the Wuhan quarantine because it was the only way to protect the families from their infected members. Without that policy Wuhan would not have ended the epidemic.
Current test reliability is relativ high if test is immediate used when symptoms appear.

OffGuardian retweeted my tweet and launched the discussion:

OffGuardian @OffGuardian0 - 10:54 UTC · Apr 9, 2020
Surely your not actually advocating the forced removal of “infected” people from their homes against their will? #COVID19 #coronavirus

MoonofA: To separate infected from non-infected people is the ONLY way to stop such an epidemic.

OffGuardian: So let’s be totally clear. You believe the govts - the same ones who have lied us into wars, murdered innocents and destroyed the environment - should have the power to invade our homes and take away apparently healthy people whom they “SUSPECT” of being infected?

MoonofA: Our governments already have the right to do so under certain circumstances. An epidemic which threatens the health of all is one of them.

OffGuardian: That is not an answer. Do YOU believe these corrupt govts, which you have been opposing for so many years, should be able to enter people’s homes and take away people they claim to “suspect” of being infected?

MoonofA: I support quarantine measures during epidemics. We have had these for many centuries for good reasons. We should again use them.

OffGuardian: You support arrest and detention for people the govt claims to suspect MAY have a virus that - according to official estimates - is harmless or mild for 80-99% of those infected.
You do. MoA. Former champion of human rights and justice.
Have you lost your mind?

MoonofA: You are framing a measure that protects your and other families as "arrest" and "detention". It is neither of those.

OffGuardian: Oh ok. So, should the people ‘suspected’ of being infected be allowed to leave when they choose?

If your answer is ‘no’, then this IS arrest and detention and you are hiding behind blurry language.

As it made no sense to continue I stopped responding. Later Mark Sleboda jumped in to support my view:

Mark Sleboda @MarkSleboda1 - 5:02 UTC · Apr 9, 2020

Replying to @OffGuardian0 and @MoonofA
Leviathan - save me and mine from such fools.

Another discussion between OffGuardian and him unfolded from that. OffGuardian seemed to become a bit desperate when it then tweeted this nonsense:

OffGuardian @OffGuardian0 - 19:14 UTC · Apr 9, 2020
Replying to @MarkSleboda1 @ghigoberni and @MoonofA
So you would support indefinite detention for anyone who may be carrying flu virus then. It’s a lot more dangerous to healthy people and children than #covid19, as any epidemiologist will tell you.

I have not heard of any epidemiologist who has claimed that. But maybe I am reading the wrong ones. This graphic though from the British Office of National Statistics does not look like a flu outbreak:

Source: ONS - bigger

The same ONS data was used by the Financial Times to produce this probably better visual:

Source: bigger

The few high blue dots around December/January time frame show exceptionally bad flu seasons like the London flu of 1972. Similar charts from other countries show the same effect for current covid-19 outbreaks. Without control measures like the current lock-downs the red line would certainly go through the roof.

The covid-19 disease the novel coronavirus causes is not a "flu". We largely do have 'herd immunity' against the flu. But this is a new virus causing a new disease. Nearly nobody is yet immune against it. It works in ways we are still just beginning to understand and there is no established therapy.

If we let this epidemic run wild without any control measures the death toll will be exceptionally high. The death per infection rate in Germany is currently estimated to be 0.53% (via Christian Drosten). It may be higher in other countries. That looks like a small number but remember that nearly no one has yet acquired immunity. It would probably take a year for the epidemic to run through a whole country.

Great Britain, with a population of some 60 million, would be theoretically looking at 300.000 excess death within one year. But the health care system would completely break down and thereby vastly increase the total death toll as there would be no care for most of the critical covid-19 patients and no beds for the usual other cases. That may already happen as Britain is now estimated to already have 41,000 excess death from the current epidemic.

Current estimates say that 2 to 3% of the population have so far developed anti-bodies against the virus. They likely give some immunity but we do not know how long that will hold. Should this epidemic have weather dependent waves the first one will likely end during the summer. Model calculations show that only some 6-7% of the population would by then have acquired immunity.

A second wave will then come during the winter. It will be worse as it will start everywhere at the same time and will come on top of the yearly flu season. We will then likely again need some harsh control measure like temporary lock-downs and case quarantains.

Now back to the Off-Guardian and Corbett critique. My view on the epidemic was always based on science. You can follow how it developed through the list of posts attached to this one. As I watched how China defeated its outbreak I had hoped that other governments would take similar measures. With globally concerted action we could have completely erased this disease!

But one slips into a pandemic with the governments one has, not with the ones one wishes for.

Will our 'elites' use the crisis to further enrich themselves. Sure. Will they abuse some of the control measures? That is practically guaranteed. And it does not change a damned thing with regards to the pandemic.

It is now too late to defeat it by eradicating its source. Social distancing measures like lock-downs are needed to keep the epidemic under control and to not overload our health care systems. Should the next outbreak wave be worse than the current one we will need even harsher measures than we currently have. I will support those because I know that they will save lives.

If that makes me an 'authoritarian' in the view of some then let it be so.

I for one find it more useful to tell people to make and wear masks than to post 'expert opinions' (scroll down) from PR-company sites which disagree with the scientific mainstream while their estimates of the total death toll have already been exceeded.

Previous Moon of Alabama posts on the issue:

Posted by b on April 22, 2020 at 18:02 UTC | Permalink

« previous page

First NYC covid -19 antibody test finds .5% fatality rate:

Posted by: Chris | Apr 24 2020 11:59 utc | 501

Yeah, Right | Apr 24 2020 1:31 utc | 451

Your response to my post was evidence-free and anti-factual.

It is a fact that Covid-19 is not dangerous except to the elderly and those with co-morbidities like diabetes, obesity, and heart disease. We know the average age of the people who have died is around 80. We know those younger than 65 who die from the virus almost always have the co-morbidities described above. None of these facts is related to lockdowns or non-lockdowns. All of the above facts are clearly shown and discussed in the April 5 Ioannidis review of available data, which I've linked to at various times.

Posted by: fairleft | Apr 24 2020 12:17 utc | 502

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Apr 24 2020 1:32 utc | 452

It's impossible now, according to the experts I've cited before, to suppress the virus (as in almost completely eliminate it) in places where it was allowed to multiply freely for a couple months (January and February) or more before any serious effort was made to contain it.

Another option is to contain it, slow its growth, but we need to acknowledge that about 15% of the population in many parts of the US, for example, have or have had the Covid-19 flu/pneumonia. Many didn't even notice they had it, but they now have antibodies for the virus. Also, there are many strains of Covid-19, so having antibodies for one strain may not protect people from a different strain. These multiple strains also make a vaccine very difficult to develop.

In the above context, we can continue 'locking down' for another year or two (or forever) because for a long time that will be the "99% certain" way to make sure you don't get sick from one of the many strains of Covid-19. Or we could start trying to get on with life, which includes making a living and generating economic activity, in a way that cares far and minimizes harm to the vulnerable.

Posted by: fairleft | Apr 24 2020 12:30 utc | 503

Ric G | Apr 24 2020 5:34 utc | 476

Fantastic set of suggestions. Testing is the key, with the main focus on protecting the elderly/vulnerable and getting the heavily damaged economy running again. Slow the advance of the virus but don't pretend (at what a price!) you can suppress it completely.

Posted by: fairleft | Apr 24 2020 12:43 utc | 504

@519 fairleft "Your response to my post was evidence-free and anti-factual."

Oh, the irony....

"It is a fact that Covid-19 is not dangerous except to the elderly and those with co-morbidities like diabetes, obesity, and heart disease."

That is not at all a "fact".

It is a fact that DURING A LOCKDOWN the people who are in most danger are the elderly and those with already-compromised health. That is demonstrably true, because the existing data DURING THIS LOCKDOWN supports that proposition.

"We know those younger than 65 who die from the virus almost always have the co-morbidities described above."

That is not at all a "fact".

It is a fact that DURING A LOCKDOWN those who are younger than 65 and who do not have co-morbidities have little to fear from Covid-19. That is demonstrably true, because the existing data DURING THIS LOCKDOWN supports that proposition.

"None of these facts is related to lockdowns or non-lockdowns"

You have zero evidence to support that proposition, because you have zero data from a "non-lockdown" situation.

"All of the above facts are clearly shown and discussed in the April 5 Ioannidis review of available data, which I've linked to at various times."

Again, Ioannidis has zero evidence to support that proposition, because Ioannidis has zero data from a "non-lockdown" situation.

In both your case and Ioannidis' case the argument is simply: trust us, and if you do then you will see that we are right.

I can admire your conviction that you are right, which is truly impressive.
But, so sorry, I don't accept your "facts", because you don't possess any.

All you have is faith that
a) you are right and
b) if given the change to prove it then
c) you will be vindicated.

Posted by: Yeah, Right | Apr 24 2020 13:02 utc | 505

@ Posted by: Avid Lurker | Apr 23 2020 18:21 utc | 404

I too, had listened to this interview. I wanted to post it here, but had lost the url. Thanks for sharing.

A host of good information from many experts is also available at the Swiss Propaganda Research website.

Posted by: Nathan Mulcahy | Apr 24 2020 13:02 utc | 506

@487 Me: "Those countries that went into lockdown early and hard *have* done better and *continue* to do better than those countries that flipped and flopped with respect to their lockdown policies. "

@492 Russ: "Oh I'm sorry, I didn't know you were satisfied the whole thing is over, finished, kaput."

Russ, dude, what part of the word "continue" are you having a problem understanding?

Posted by: Yeah, Right | Apr 24 2020 13:07 utc | 507

@522 fairleft "Testing is the key,"

Totally agree. When does the USA plan to start?

Posted by: Yeah, Right | Apr 24 2020 13:10 utc | 508

MadMax2 @ 516 says:

Best to err on the side of caution where pandemics are concerned. Unless you'd like to rid yourself of certain demographics

squeaky, that one.

unless you're referring to the relatively small 'old and sick' group, the demographics that'll be wiped out, first through attrition and then early death, are the immensely larger, younger, healthier ones...

Posted by: john | Apr 24 2020 13:12 utc | 509

Yeah, Right | Apr 24 2020 13:07 utc | 526

@487 Me: "Those countries that went into lockdown early and hard *have* done better and *continue* to do better than those countries that flipped and flopped with respect to their lockdown policies. "

@492 Russ: "Oh I'm sorry, I didn't know you were satisfied the whole thing is over, finished, kaput."

Russ, dude, what part of the word "continue" are you having a problem understanding?

I can't tell if you're illiterate or just pretending to be, but let's reproduce my entire quote:

"Oh I'm sorry, I didn't know you were satisfied the whole thing is over, finished, kaput. I thought on the contrary this Satanic scourge is supposed to keep coming and coming, in ever more severe waves. In that case it would be far too early to tell anything regarding anywhere on Earth."

What part of "far too early to tell" are you having a problem understanding?

And what you say is factually false at this moment as well. Sweden is doing better *so far* than Belgium with its severe lockdown. Germany is doing better than Italy and Spain which have more severe regimes. I'm sure there's plenty more examples.

Only time will tell whether Sweden's strategy to expedite herd immunity will ultimately result in greater or fewer deaths than rigid, inflexible, vain police state attempts to defy nature. I strongly suspect rigid Dominionist-technocratic attempts to thwart the inevitable will only kill more, in addition to the many ancillary horrors of the lockdowns.

Posted by: Russ | Apr 24 2020 13:51 utc | 510

(From a nutritional perspective, I did read that black beans (a cup or two) and sunflower seeds provide a very good balance of copper and zinc, which compete with each other for absorption. ... I think the microbiologists still have very much to learn about this virus.)

Posted by: blues | Apr 24 2020 10:20 utc | 506

Hello blues, You seem to be well-intended after all and, I might add, rather astute re endogenous zinc:copper ratios considerations. Although I've studied such ratios for a few years now, I somehow still managed to adequately appreciate copper's subtle importance re various maladies, including hypertension, metabolic syndrome, etc. If not COVID-19 as well ?? Good luck with everything.

Aerosol and Surface Stability of SARS-CoV-2 as Compared with SARS-CoV-1

Posted by: Avid Lurker | Apr 24 2020 14:23 utc | 511

That should have read INadequately...

Posted by: Avid Lurker | Apr 24 2020 14:26 utc | 512

The Covid cultists took another hit yesterday with the report out of NY- no need to review that here. There was another amazing and unreported mandate from the WHO and it's stepchild the CDC yesterday- they mandated that everyone wear blindfolds so as to be protected from seeing what's going on. This also serves to prove the Covid symptoms are more extreme than before- now it's loss of sight, smell and taste. Next up everyone must plug their ears so as not to hear any facts that disturb any preconceived Covidian mythologies that might cause them to lose faith in Big Pharma Brother.

Even those “official” mortality rate numbers are in decline here in the US. They are already prepping everyone for that untidy fact here in NY State. The number of deaths reported, even as they lower the rate, is also inaccurate and over inflated.- making that rate lower still. This will also come to surface within the next few weeks.

Keep in mind:

1) The CDC changed it’s decades old protocols for how death certificates are to be filled out- giving a special dispensation to COVID deaths which encouraged an over-reporting of Covid as cause of death;

2) Vague to no distinctions made between those who died with or from Covid- “in cases where a definite diagnosis of COVID–19 cannot be made, but it is suspected or likely, it is acceptable to report COVID–19 on a death certificate as “probable” or “presumed.”

3) Many of the Covid tests themselves are controversial to unreliable;

4) According to the CDC website, 2020 was experiencing a rough flu season with a very high number of cases and deaths- but this suddenly and dramatically reversed to coincide with the arrival of Covid19. But this decrease miraculously only occurred only among older adults -flu cases and deaths among the older population in fact continued but got moved into the C19 column;

5) Remarkable, unprecedented decline in pneumonia deaths reflect false attribution of C19 as cause of death;

6) Some number of untested at home deaths are falsely attributed as Covid deaths- NYC officials stated that they WILL NOT be conducting tests on at home deaths nor will they be doing any diagnostics on the cadavers;


NYC officials also confirmed that they will begin to count suspected COVID-19 deaths in addition to cases confirmed by a laboratory. Stephanie Buhle, a spokeswoman for the New York City’s Health Department, confirmed the change in protocol:

“The Office of the Chief Medical Examiner (OCME) and the NYC Health Department are working together to include into their reports deaths that may be linked to COVID but not lab confirmed that occur at home.”

Posted by: Allen | Apr 24 2020 14:30 utc | 513

So many starving trolls desperate for their masters to start making money again.

Should I feed one?

Posted by: William Gruff | Apr 24 2020 14:58 utc | 514

Posted by: William Gruff | Apr 24 2020 14:58 utc | 534

"Should I feed one?"

It's your choice, b is reluctance to clean sweep.

Posted by: JC | Apr 24 2020 15:06 utc | 515

@ 486 blues... that is a great summation of the situation here... thank you for articulating that so well!!

Posted by: james | Apr 24 2020 15:10 utc | 516

CGTN and XinHua news, China may have a vaccine ready by September 2020 for healthcare workers emergency uses . China is clinical testing at least 2 vaccines and a dozen ready down the road.

You can expect more accusation China steals, cheats the vaccine....... One of the vaccine look "promising"

Posted by: JC | Apr 24 2020 15:23 utc | 517

Merely postponing those payments via a moratorium isn't sufficient as they're still owed. As Hudson points out, such payments must be voided altogether …

convo: karlof, bevin, others.

There are so many arguments to be made for local and small… ex.

Many compromises are possible. In the canton (Switz.) I live in everyone is happy with the cantonal / federal measures, more or less, though quite a few will ‘fakey curse and complain.’

With one exception: very small biz., one-person independents who *must* pay rent to keep going. Ex. 3 person furniture restorer with a largish atelier as a lot of matériel and machines needed, masseuse with rent for small premises, dog washer groomer who has to be ‘central’ and near ‘parking’, with good ‘utilities’, etc. These have demanded targetted, special help.

The answer: the tenant has to convince his landlord to forgo half the rent. The landlord may spontaneously offer a 50% discount. Then, the taxpayer will pay half the rent to the landlord. Fine, done, we will deal with dire cases later.

-- Of course such solutions are dependent on local conditions. For ex. here there are few, maybe even practically no, small landlords dependent on ‘rent’ for some small premises. It is all Big Corps who can absorb the ‘loss.’ Evictions in any case are put off sine die.

Besides that, like some others I am somewhat surprised, hmm not so much, more dismayed, at the panic, alarmism, side-taking, insults, etc. at MOA.

The world, I should say Western W, seems to have gone into a maelstrom of crazed side-taking, embracing totally shoddy science, crazy spins, in part to support ‘tribal’ belonging, rogue actions, uncoordinated BS, mayhem, etc. Revealing btw that 'our' Gvmts. are just not up to their jobs.

Posted by: Noirette | Apr 24 2020 15:31 utc | 518

Yeah, Right | Apr 24 2020 13:02 utc | 524

You have no evidence for your anti-facts. You're just making wild assertions.

I have a scientific review of all the Covid-19 data up to April 5. The facts reviewed there say very clearly that the virus is very rarely dangerous to under-65s without 'co-morbidities'. And that has nothing to do with lockdowns or non-lockdown, it's simply about the % of people who are or are not dying in different age brackets. Look at any data, from anywhere now, and note what age brackets are propelling the rise in number of deaths.

Posted by: fairleft | Apr 24 2020 15:39 utc | 519

MoA was one of my most favorite source of information/analyses. Now I lost a lot of trust.
See for example more common sense information/analyse like

Posted by: Lubo | Apr 24 2020 15:41 utc | 520

Lubo @540

I agree. The fear porn on this and other alternative news sites I used to frequent is almost as bad as the MSM.

Posted by: JasonT | Apr 24 2020 15:48 utc | 521

Multiple trolls ill legitimate posters (trying to be nice here) posting the exact same thing verbatim (see above).

No, that's not unusual at all... on Twitter.

Posted by: William Gruff | Apr 24 2020 15:57 utc | 522

South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Russia, Morocco, and more are using 'virus suppression' strategies instead of 'virus mitigation'.

'Virus mitigation' REQUIRES social distancing, self-isolation, and lock-downs.

If you don't like lock-downs, you should be pushing for a change in strategy because the virus is dangerous to under-65s (even if the danger is somewhat less) and we don't yet know what long-term effects may be.

Lifting lock-downs without changing the strategy will sicken/kill more people and boost Big Pharma profits.


Posted by: Jackrabbit | Apr 24 2020 16:11 utc | 523

@ Posted by: Lubo | Apr 24 2020 15:41 utc | 540

Well, if you still fall for the MSM propaganda, then it's your problem.

But the scientific data is overwhelming: absolute, state-enforced lockdown is the best anti-pandemic measure from a strictly medical perspective.

Posted by: vk | Apr 24 2020 16:24 utc | 524

Its funny, i've come up with a theory on why most leftist who always doubt official narratives are full on board with this. Most of them are old, so they are extra scared because they might die, they also believe this crisis will lead to Medicare 4 all, which is not going to happen. And even if it did, why would you want it to be run by the same people who are making your life miserable?

Posted by: Trent | Apr 24 2020 16:45 utc | 525

i have a theory americans with their americentric viewpoints are too thick to realize the world doesn't revolve around the usa... it works over 75% of the time..

Posted by: james | Apr 24 2020 16:59 utc | 526

my present position on covid 19 is presently something like this.. it is highly contagious... it is taking out mostly older people and very few young.. the younger ones have pre-existing medical conditions... but it is cutting life short for these older folks that wouldn't ordinarily die, but are dying because this thing is magnitudes stronger then the regular the dilemma seems to me, how do you open up society when the nurses and care givers - doctors and etc. etc. - who look after these health challenged people in hospitals and care homes and etc. - how do they continue to give care to people when they might now be carrying the virus or they could very well catch it going about ordinary life? i don't know how that part works... as we know many people can carry this virus but show no symptoms - asymptomatic...

tough questions remain... how do health care workers remain removed from catching the virus and passing it on to those they work with? even if you open up the economy, how do you dodge this?

i don't have the answers..

Posted by: james | Apr 24 2020 17:09 utc | 527

Cui bono, surely not the worlds citizens!

Posted by: Bro43rd | Apr 24 2020 17:09 utc | 528

@ Posted by: Trent | Apr 24 2020 16:45 utc | 545

What official narrative?

Quarantines ("lockdowns") work by definition. We know that because we've already done that for other infectious diseases.

It will always work because you're cutting the denominator: worst case scenario, you have an 100% mortality rate for a fraction of total population and you get rid of the disease. That's a very simple concept, and you don't need to rely on conspiracy theories to know it works.

Nobody complains when an individual with conjunctivitis is isolated from its workplace or even family members. It's just common sense that quarantine works.

Posted by: vk | Apr 24 2020 17:33 utc | 529


What quarantines? I'm 36 and nothing like this has ever happened in my life time, i have a major in history and nothing like this appears to have happened in the last 100 years. Its been four months since we've known about coronavirus. They are now claiming it was in the united states in January. But who knows, because that information will change in a few days, maybe a week. If its as bad as the media is making it out to be, why aren't are numbers even higher? And why is it only really bad in certain areas? We did not lockdown until March 13th (which was a friday by the way) and western PA isnt exploding with cases. I had a horrible flu at the beginning of Febuary, and by the definition of Coronavirus (which can be almost any symptom based on official information) i already had the disease. High fever, cough and aches, but here i am three months later and i'm fine. Do you know anyone personally who has had this virus? I may be the only person i know based on the definition of it. Heck you can't even get tested for it around here. Too many things are not adding up.

Posted by: Trent | Apr 24 2020 17:41 utc | 530

Same tactics as 2008 are being used also. If we don't bail out everyone, everyone is going to die!!!!!! Do you want that blood on your hands? This is like watching a bad movie.

Posted by: Trent | Apr 24 2020 17:44 utc | 531

Repo market was blowing up in September, rates were being lowered last year and the balance sheet run off had stopped. I find it very odd that just as financial crisis was rearing its ugly head, we have a virus which we aren't allowed to question (nakedcapitalism will not let you be antivirus) and the first priority of ours is to bailout out the same assholes who were bailedout in 2008. Most of knew this was coming, because nothing was fixed in 2008. The reaction to the bailouts in 2008 was very negative, but now you aren't even allowed to meet with other people to discuss this except online......

Posted by: Trent | Apr 24 2020 17:49 utc | 532

And i find it hard that people who have been caught lying about every goddamn thing under the sun, have now done a 180 and i'm supposed to believe everything they are telling me.

Posted by: Trent | Apr 24 2020 17:53 utc | 533

"It will always work because you're cutting the denominator: worst case scenario, you have an 100% mortality rate for a fraction of total population and you get rid of the disease. That's a very simple concept, and you don't need to rely on conspiracy theories to know it works."

Yeah just like those models wall street used and told us what we feared would never happen.

Posted by: Trent | Apr 24 2020 17:55 utc | 534

The same people who are torturing Julian Assange due to him pointing out their lies are now telling me they know whats best and i better social distance.

Posted by: Trent | Apr 24 2020 17:59 utc | 535

I agree with Trent. The virus is real but the government, media & establishment response is unreal.

Posted by: Bro43rd | Apr 24 2020 18:02 utc | 536

Really, alot of whats going on right now was how i envisioned the mass bankruptcy of the world financial system would look like. Oh and don't forget the virus will be back in the fall, so we'll have to lockdown again.

Posted by: Trent | Apr 24 2020 18:10 utc | 537

5) Remarkable, unprecedented decline in pneumonia deaths reflect false attribution of C19 as cause of death;

Counting deaths from different causes is never perfect, and with even testing can do only so much. The virus does not need to be present during the final stages of the diseases, "cytokine storm" can eliminate the virus with a "suicidal attack". Some symptoms point more specifically but not conclusive to COVID-19. Thus rules either overcount or undercount. At least they did not estimate COVID-19 deaths from satellite photos of funerary urns that "proved" the Chinese lies.

Thus there are two issues here

A. What to do when we are uncertain and there is a big downside risk?
B. How to minimize the risk most cost effectively?

Intuitively, a quarantine for the infected people and reasonable freedom for the others would reduce economic pains, and humungous amount of test that would be needed costs much less than "bail-out". In USA, testing everyone would cost less than 100 billion, and the numbers for the bailout are in trillions. Reducing lockout time by a month saves about a trillion.

The estimated risk in terms of deaths or long/permanent disabilities are ranges of guesses. Medicine is not a miracle science, it would take a year to get reliable answers, perhaps less to find reliable therapies. Vaccines are just one way, RNA viruses are elusive targets for vaccines, but much more effective therapies can be found, i.e. was an interesting article in NYT about a "simple approach (give every infected person, or "at risk person" a gadget measuring oxygen absorption, and oxygenate them without "ventilators" (like Boris Johnson) as soon as their level drops dangerously), and very contradictory news about medications -- perhaps some are working?

Then there is the question of sufficient quality and quantity of protective cloths and what are sensible rules to decrease infections. Some countries (like Ecuador, see Consortium News, and probably India) kill many more by "lockdown" than save.

On another note, is it American (USA) peculiarity that producers and vendors of cleaning products warn customers not to ingest or inhale household cleaning products, regardless how they interpret the statements of their leader?

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Apr 24 2020 18:35 utc | 538

blues' Solution to the Covid-19 Plague:

Since nobody else deigns to step up to the plate and just solve the Cov19 disaster immediately, the solution appears to be up to me (as usual). Since I have already been stupidly doxxed by idiot mathematicians on another site, and am getting too damn old to worry, I'll let on that my so-called 'real' name is 'Joyce'. My solution to the Cov19 disaster is the 'Joyce krama' (or just 'Joyce scarf'). The 'krama' is a traditional Cambodian cotton scarf, worn to cope with a variety of environmental challenges, including dust storms. I have ordered mine on eBay but it has yet to arrive from France. But I already have received the other Joyce krama 'ingredients'. They are:

Relatively pure fructose sugar, plus unscented, or very lightly scented (try to smell before buying) dish detergent. I will add the fructose powder to a bowl of water until it is somewhat sticky and yucky. Also, I will add the dish detergent to the bowl of water, at maybe about 10% by volume. Although virtually harmless, the fructose happens to be super powerfully 'hydrophilic' -- it attracts and retains water. Then mix (d'uh).

Then, dip the scarf into the solution, and wring it out sufficiently to be breathable. The Cambodian krama is made of cotton, which is the best material for holding water, but care must be taken to prevent moldiness. The idea is that the water and dish detergent in the thick cotton krama will ruin the virus' envelope ('kill' it). I'll let folks know what happens when I receive my krama. And... put thee lime in thee coconut...

How to Tie a Keffiyeh, an Improvised Dust Mask (You Tube)

Posted by: blues | Apr 24 2020 18:35 utc | 539


Good point about the medical personnel as the dis-ease progression is dependent on both cellular health and dose. Thus medical personnel would be advised not to treat those with COVID-19 if the herd mentality approach is taken.

Besides US medical personnel have generally not been provided with appropriate PPE and when raising concerns were often fired by the corporations that runs the hospitals. In contrast, see the case of Chechnya where the medical personnel at the hospital that the Kadyrov visited (use duckduckgo to see video)at Sputnik news.

Posted by: krollchem | Apr 24 2020 18:44 utc | 540

Posted by: Thom | Apr 24 2020 12:45 utc | 523

Twisted, mis-directed and demented hyperbole.


Here's 3 gut-wrenching stories out of many similar ones where Covid killed healthy people in their 30s that convinced me that confinement was a necessary measure. I literally sobbed listening to these 3 particular tragic accounts.

young dying of coronavirus

So don't whine to me about the temporary infringement on your freedom and how seniors are expendable and how the lives Covid takes are a small price to pay for your damn selfish interests!

Move to another f**cking planet and let the rest of us create a more evolved; compassionate world here, damn you!

Posted by: Circe | Apr 24 2020 18:45 utc | 541

"Move to another f**cking planet and let the rest of us create a more evolved; compassionate world here, damn you!"

If that is what you think will come from this, you are going to be sorely disappointed.

Posted by: Trent | Apr 24 2020 18:50 utc | 542

Sorry, link did not connect. I'll see if I can find another.

Here are the names in case you want to look them up.

30-year-old Ben Luderer

Joe Lewinger (actually he was 42)

Conrad Buchanan 39

All 3 were healthy and 2 left behind young children.

These are only 3 cases of many more.

Posted by: Circe | Apr 24 2020 18:57 utc | 543


Most of us here would not believe CNN if they were to state the sun came up this morning.

So I looked at the first death you list. Sent home from hospital. Doesn’t match with any other COVID tale. Apparently no autopsy. Thirty year old guy in apparent good health dies three days after the MDs cut him loose is a darn good example of when an autopsy is called for. Looking at his photos I have a pretty good idea what he was doing, can’t say if it would have caused his death, definitely would have complicated any illness.

Posted by: oldhippie | Apr 24 2020 19:23 utc | 544

Joe Lewinger

new Jersey baseball coach dies

Here's another in his 40s and at the end of the article is a list of more victims some of which are under 50.

kious kelly

Conrad Buchanan

How about a perfectly healthy father of 6!?

healthy dad coronavirus victim

These are just some cases of healthy victims under 50. Are younger healthy fathers expendable too to satisfy those here who believe Covid confinement infringes on their freedom?

Posted by: Circe | Apr 24 2020 19:31 utc | 545

@562 Trent

Of course I don't think that with so much apathy and selfishness around!

I stated so in a previous comment. I'm just pissed at spoiled whiners who can't sacrifice anything!

Posted by: Circe | Apr 24 2020 19:42 utc | 546


You mean like boeing, who spent billons on buybacks the last few years further increasing inequality, made shitty planes that crashed, and then two weeks into coronacrisis got a bailout? I didn't tell them to do any of those things, but i'm being told now what i can and can't do. Do you see the difference?

Posted by: Trent | Apr 24 2020 19:50 utc | 547

A quarantine is when people are kept in a place, not necessarily a closed room or appartment or house by the way, where they are brought their food so as to keep them apart from other people and the possibility of infecting them.
A (stupid) lockdown is when you pretend to lock people home but allow some or all people of the place to go out and mingle because of doing errands or else.
The purpose of the quarantine is to guarantee that after isolation during a period longer than the incubation, not showing any symptoms would mean you have not been infected.
As long as you mingle you have to start the duration again from start.
That is why the French are actually going to start the real quarantines on May 11th. The gov pretends that by then, they will be ready with masks, tests and teams trained for contact tracing, and requisitioned places where they will put the infected people who cannot or do not want to self isolate (and be supported to do that) at home. They claim, however, that as a democratic country, it will be based on the will of people whether they stay isolated after being tested positive or not. Since they did not offer that to the people who were evacuated from China back in January and February it is just another proof of their duplicity and the double agenda they are implementing.

Posted by: Mina | Apr 24 2020 19:51 utc | 548

@ trent... thanks for your comments.. you seem genuine... moa is more international, but i appreciate your unique situation in the usa.. regarding the pandemic, i am in my mid 60's and this is the first time in my lifetime something like this has happened ever as well, so i think you are correct.. one has to go back 100 years to the last time something like this came up, and the circumstances and situation was off course different... i don't know how it is going to work out in the usa because the set up is very different then here in canada where people are being given emergency funding of 2 grand a month if they qualify for it - and most qualify for it! i can see how people in the usa must be really outraged at what is going on and of course the 2008 bailout looks to be reenacted here in the same way where banks and etc get bailed while little people like you- get screwed... i hope things can work out for people in the usa, but it looks discouraging at this point.. and i am thinking they are not going to get this under control as they are going about it all wrong, but the economic pressure everyone is feeling is very real.. the pressure is pushing a response, but it is to my way of thinking, as irrational and ill informed response.. cheers..

@ 559 blues.. fascinating.. i take it you live in a more congested part of the usa... you will need to do something like this to lessen your chances of catching this.. on a different note, i am a big fan of the singer joyce moreno from sao paulo - brazil.. check out here music if you are curious..

@ 560 krollchem.. thanks.. i think i did see that video footage, but yes - how do you protect the health care workers in all of this? it seems like a critical point being lost in the focus on lockdown, or no lockdown back and forth...

@568 mina.. thanks for the sad overview on france.. i fear france is not all that different from many other western countries approach here.. too little too late basically..

Posted by: james | Apr 24 2020 20:14 utc | 549


"the French are actually going to start the real quarantines on May 11th."

You may be onto something as the French military has ordered a large quantity of chloroquine phosphate. The only other thought is that this shipment is for supporting the French military conquests in Africa, such as Mali.

Posted by: krollchem | Apr 24 2020 20:19 utc | 550

@567 Trent

Blame Trump for the Boeing bailout and not people who believe confinement was necessary to slow contagion, massive death and to avoid a total collapse of the healthcare system.

It's been 6 weeks; not 6 months! The restrictions are starting to be relaxed and this will happen everywhere from mid-May to June.

Posted by: Circe | Apr 24 2020 20:22 utc | 551


Really? So a democrat wouldn't have done the same? Trump was not the beginning of america's problems. They are equally evil, one just smiles and pretends to be your friend. Get rid of both parties. I never said it had been six months. We've known about the coronavirus since January. Yeah, restrictions are starting to be relaxed...... until we get this second wave of human eating virus in the fall

Posted by: Trent | Apr 24 2020 20:25 utc | 552

James 547 "tough questions remain... how do health care workers remain removed from catching the virus and passing it on to those they work with? even if you open up the economy, how do you dodge this?"

The answer to that is in the Chinese handbook on Covid-19 treatment. Separate hospitals with very strict procedures for moving from contaminated to clean area. Medical workers staying in clean area on site. Either for the duration or several weeks on, several weeks off but.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 24 2020 20:41 utc | 553

I absolutely agree with you. I've really been put off by Off-Guardian's coverage of coronavirus

Posted by: Ruth | Apr 24 2020 20:45 utc | 554

@ james | Apr 24 2020 20:14 utc | 569

'Joyce' is my surname, not my given name. Fate has rendered me male.

Posted by: blues | Apr 24 2020 21:05 utc | 555

@ peter au.. thanks... i see the trick is when they are off work, how do they interact with the public in a non locked down state and then go back to work in an environment with many people with comprimised health situations??

@ blues, lol... yer irish!! my friend richards last name is joyce as well - red hair and family of 10 - grew up in montreal - irish catholic.... thanks for clarifying that!

Posted by: james | Apr 24 2020 21:19 utc | 556


I asked weeks ago at what point the denialists would concede this thing was actually dangerous. We're now at at least 200,000 corpses globally (the real number is probably much higher), a quarter (again, the real toll is almost certainly higher) of them in the US. And these people are still pushing denialism.

They are stupid, pure and simple. If vast numbers of dead people isn't going to change their minds, my being more polite certainly won't.

Posted by: Benjamin | Apr 24 2020 21:23 utc | 557

@ benjamin... i agree with you.. i guess i am a sucker for style, but ultimately content is the most important... why alienate people unnecessarily? we're all just trying to get by.. cheers..

Posted by: james | Apr 24 2020 21:25 utc | 558

james 576

The Chinese treated Covid-19 as an enemy attacking their country. I guess for us in the west it depends on whether or not we think we've got anything worth fighting for.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 24 2020 21:39 utc | 559


Do you have personal experience with Covid-19? I only ask because i haven't received an affirmative response yet except for a nurse i know who works at a hospital.

Posted by: Trent | Apr 24 2020 21:51 utc | 560

@ Benjamin | Apr 24 2020 21:23 utc | 577

Hey Benjamin here's one of these stupid morons typing.

Let's see: Mean life expectancy in 2017 was ~72 years globally (source, there's been roughly 7.5 billion people inhabiting the planet, which leads us to about 104 million people kicking the bucket every year.
nCovid-19's been around since say January that makes ~115 days as of April 24th which yields an average death rate for 2020 to date of ~32.5 million globally. Your 200,000 deaths supposedly victims of Corona and Corona alone's still a mere drop in the bucket at ~0.6%.
Pneumonia deaths from other causes down, flu deaths all of a sudden down ever since Covid entered the stage .... no or very little post mortem examination of fatalities .... proven experts on virology and epidemiology with differing opinions flat out dismissed and ridiculed by all-knowing journalists and commenters....hard numbers from sites like dismissed without even ever doing a proper graph analysis -which I did ;)....

Btw, Mother Nature doesn't give a shit about your feelings. All the emotional blatherings are just that.
People are born to die, if you so will. This is true for you, me and everybody else. Ever stood next to the torn up body of your brother killed by a drunk driver just seconds before? Ever watched people dying agonizing deaths? I did both of it. You and most of your brethren do not seem to know shit about death and destruction, so please get a grip.

South German county, 4 months in the crisis: established covid centers dialing back service hours due a lack of patients - not a single suspected patient over the entire Easter weekend, ICU units empty, 1 death (93 year old lady) out of a population of ~180,000. You call this a most serious pandemic?
Source: A friend (MD) working in the field and I had dinner with just this past afternoon.

Posted by: Hmpf | Apr 24 2020 22:50 utc | 561

@501 Michael888 " The WHO tweeted in mid January that covid-19 was NOT spread by human-to-human contact (wet market viruses like bird flu are not)."

That is simply untrue.

The WHO never claimed that covid-19 was *not* capable of human-to-human transmission.

The first WHO comment was on January 6 which you can see here:

The money-shot:
"Based on the preliminary information from the Chinese investigation team, no evidence of significant human-to-human transmission and no health care worker infections have been reported."

Saying that there is "no evidence" (and they were correct, they had zero evidence) is not the same as saying that it "was NOT" spread by human-to-human contact.

It's the difference between accurately conveying the information that you have received (WHO) versus making your shit up to suit your agenda (you).

I'm seeing a lot of the latter in this thread.

Posted by: Yeah, Right | Apr 24 2020 23:25 utc | 562

@539 fairleft "I have a scientific review of all the Covid-19 data up to April 5."

Good, we both accept that you have significant data on how Covid-19 is spreading during a period of global lockdown.

"The facts reviewed there say very clearly that the virus is very rarely dangerous to under-65s without 'co-morbidities'."

Again, we both agree: the data that has been collected shows that during a lockdown those who are young and healthy have little risk of dying from Covid-19.

"And that has nothing to do with lockdowns or non-lockdown,"

This is where we part company, for the good and simple reason that the *only* data you have shows what happens during a lockdown. You have zero data that shows what happens when there isn't a lockdown.

"it's simply about the % of people who are or are not dying in different age brackets."

Again, those %s are derived from data during a lockdown. It tells you nothing about what would happen sans-lockdown.

"Look at any data, from anywhere now, and note what age brackets are propelling the rise in number of deaths."

I have looked again and, yep, it is data collected during a lockdown, so it tells you what happens during a lockdown.

It doesn't tell you what would happen without a lockdown because, du'oh, the data wasn't collected sans-lockdown.

Honestly, this isn't rocket science.

Posted by: Yeah, Right | Apr 24 2020 23:42 utc | 563

@530 Russ "I can't tell if you're illiterate or just pretending to be, but let's reproduce my entire quote:"

Oh, sure, try your best....

"Oh I'm sorry, I didn't know you were satisfied the whole thing is over, finished, kaput. I thought on the contrary this Satanic scourge is supposed to keep coming and coming, in ever more severe waves. In that case it would be far too early to tell anything regarding anywhere on Earth."

Let's parse that piece of passive-aggressiveness, shall we?

"Oh I'm sorry, I didn't know you were satisfied the whole thing is over, finished, kaput."

Nothing I have written on any of my posts - not a one - indicates that I consider this pandemic to have run its course.
Not once, and certainly nowhere in my post @487 is there so much of a hint in support of such a proposition.

But let's continue, shall we?

"I thought on the contrary this Satanic scourge is supposed to keep coming and coming, in ever more severe waves."

Where did you derive that "thought" from, Russ?
Are you also attempting to ascribe that sentiment to me, as a logical follow-on from your first sentence would imply?
Or has your logical train of thought just left the station, and you are now into full stream-of-consciousness mode?

It makes a difference, as we go on to consider the last sentence....

"In that case it would be far too early to tell anything regarding anywhere on Earth."

In that case it would indeed.
But, you know, who's "case" are we talking about?
If you were attempting to ascribe that middle sentence to me then you have indulged in "verballing"
If that middle sentence was your own thoughts on the subject then you have just indulged in a "straw man"

Annnnnnd, back to the present:
"What part of "far too early to tell" are you having a problem understanding?"

Gosh! That would be the part about trying to decide if you were making a poor attempt at verballing me, or a poor attempt at a straw-man argument.

Either way, "piss-poor" is the phrase that comes to mind.

Posted by: Yeah, Right | Apr 25 2020 0:23 utc | 564

As I watched how China defeated its outbreak I had hoped that other governments would take similar measures. With globally concerted action we could have completely erased this disease!

Not everything depends only on governments. I think everyone saw videos where people, despite the voiced urgent calls for self-isolation and quarantine, mass walk in parks, grill kebabs, go to the beach - in England, Germany, Russia, the USA, etc.
The governments cannot make you conscious and responsible. Much depends on the people themselves. And in this aspect, often lies a weakness that can destroy (or significantly undermine) all the efforts undertaken by the authorities. The call to unite globally and follow China’s example in the hope of stopping the spread of the disease (and even 'completely erase this disease') is good only in theory. In reality, everything is somewhat different.

As for the scientific view of what is happening ('My view on the epidemic was always based on science')... Agree that all the same, you give preference to those scientific opinions that coincide with your personal opinion, or at least do not contradict it.
I am not saying that it is bad or wrong. It just is.

A number of scientists, as well as serious international organizations, governments, the media, etc., are talking about the "super-danger of the virus" (I only note that they are often the very same scientists, international organizations, governments, especially the media, who assured the world of chemical weapons in Iraq, Assad's "chemical attacks", the bombing of the Syrian "last hospitals", the bird flu "pandemic", the use of the Novichok by the Russian GRU in Salisbury on Putin's personal order, "Russian interference" in American elections, etc.). But there are also a number of scientists who do not share such alarmistic opinions, and, without denying the danger of COVID-19, speak out less categorically about the threat of the virus. These are also scientists - with titles, degrees, work experience and other merits. But you try not to notice the opinion of these scientists, or present them as a kind of "marginal", "not serious".
Well, again, this is your right.
It’s good when there is a variety of opinions.

Posted by: alaff | Apr 25 2020 0:51 utc | 565

alaff @Apr25 0:51

Not everything depends only on governments.

This is a meaningless statement that attempts to side-step the fact that for some things a government response is crucial.

The governments cannot make you conscious and responsible.

But they can provide leadership and force compliance.

you give preference to those scientific opinions that coincide with your personal opinion

Wrong! b has been attacked for supporting a governmental response. Some of those attacks call him hypocritical because of his critical view of governments.

It’s good when there is a variety of opinions.

It's good to have the RIGHT opinion. Especially when your life or the life of a loved one is at risk.


Posted by: Jackrabbit | Apr 25 2020 1:29 utc | 566

The best(and most damning) thing about these corona threads are all of the old school mofos I've been seeing show up in earnest, only to be called "trolls" by the current MoA checkout cashiers. Big up to all my old homies. In fact, haven't "we" always been trolls? The only thing different is we weren't called trolls on our own turf. So I think it's pretty clear this turf it turfed.

Seeing ppl like Fairleft, Norwegian, Seamus Padraigh et al called conservative trolls has tickled an area of my funny bone I thought had long died. So thanks, Jack's Smirking Rabbit, and the rest of the scientific illiterati. Good show! That doesn't include blues, who has to be admired for his tenure but his brain-damage never did work itslef out. Itslef is a hat-tip to whoever Donkeytale is now. Now THAT is some old school expertise, barflügelhorns.

(The above is not an endorsement of Donkeytale, but the bar regulars are pretty much a simulacrum of "him"; or his mission, or wtf)

Posted by: Sejomoje | Apr 25 2020 2:37 utc | 567

@ 579 peter au... yes.. good question.. what is worth fighting for in the west? i like how you have framed it...

Posted by: james | Apr 25 2020 2:45 utc | 568

Adding to my last comment:

The RIGHT opinion is formed from accurate and complete information. Which is not provided from those with an agenda.

We've seen, for example, that those who are are determined to lift the lock-downs immediately(!) focus on inaccurate information and unreliable studies while seemingly unaware of things that they any responsible person should want to know before advocating lifting the lock-downs such as ways to lift the lock-downs in a safe way.

Most of them also appear to be unconcerned about the financial bailouts for Wall Street and corporations, or the hate China campaign, or Big Pharma profiteering. They are solely focused on their 'mission': lift the lock-downs!


Posted by: Jackrabbit | Apr 25 2020 2:59 utc | 569

We will all die of fear from the 24/7 media psych-ops before we ever die from Covid19.

The typical child care centre is essentially a fully functional germ warfare lab. Whatever one child gets, they will all get. The child care centre is a transmission centre, par excellence, a petri dish on steroids.

And yet, while the whole world is shut down, the children show zero symptoms of any disease so the children either do not get the disease or they are all super spreaders, 'Typhoid Mary's' in their millions, demons who can kill grandma with a smile within two metres!

Has there ever been a test on the children to see if they have developed anti-bodies?

Are we all idiots boiled in ignorance? I find it impossible to contemplate a pandemic which has no effect on the children, the concept simply does not compute without my brain melting down.

It was Hitler who said 'How fortunate for governments that the people they administer don't think'.

And now even 'B' is fallen victim to the psych-ops fever!

Posted by: Ric G | Apr 25 2020 3:35 utc | 570

@ jackrabbit... just wanted to say pat lang let a post of mine go thru at sst, lolol! like i say - the guy is a typical jack in the box gemini!

Posted by: james | Apr 25 2020 4:19 utc | 571

The French know better... To give you an idea of what they call "to be ready" for the process they will follow from May 11 th on.
Today's morning news on the radio; reporters visiting a family in Paris. The mother has called because she has flu-like symptoms. Everybody is tested, after they get the results, the medic team comes to explain the family how to behave safely from now on: wear masks when you are close to the mother; wash your hands well. She does not want to be taken to a hotel for full isolation, since the appartment is big enough for the family to sleep in different rooms. And, ah, yes, she will continue cooking (they probably told her to wear a mask when doing that but that was not braodcasted).
No 100% rest? Cooking???????????????
The family wearing masks only when approaching her but handling everything she has been sneezing on?

People here should invest of the French shares market. It is going to be juicy once they have gotten rid of all the sick, elderly and deplorables.

Posted by: Mina | Apr 25 2020 11:50 utc | 572

Those who oppose lockdowns as being a form of malevolent authoritarianism are as ignorant as the most devout Christians who are hoping for the Rapture. In both cases, saving lives is not a high priority. Under pandemic conditions, lockdowns and strict isolation regimes represent a form of benign or enlightened despotism, which may seem like an oxymoron but is not. There are many historical examples.

Posted by: Rob | Apr 25 2020 18:28 utc | 573

In the old days, when a pandemic turned up, the children were separated and placed on one 'hill', the old on another, and everyone else continued fishing and farming until the pandemic passed.

Now we have a suicide cult where we shutdown the economy and go and hide in our bunkers, with death by starvation a certainty, and the seizing of the nation's treasures by the debt bankers a high probability.

History will record us as a death cult, who suffered the same fate as the tribes on Easter Island.

The madness of crowds, the delirium of the Salem medical witch trials!

Posted by: Ric G | Apr 25 2020 22:12 utc | 574

I want to draw the distinction between
- voluntary quarantine measures which people spontaneously and for which a mere suggestion is enough
- quarantine measures enforced from the top down
- negotiated quarantine measures
An example of voluntary measures is how the cinemas in Sweden emptied spontaneously on the news of COVID. Voluntary measures can make the growth of an epidemic very different from what the unimpeded model predicts.
Negotiated measures are those where we agree we have to give up something for the greater good but since what we give up is valuable we don't give it up for free. Certainly in a 'free for all grab whatever you can' situation where banks and stockmarkets are bailed out but not the population, I don't see why the population can't demand for something in return. I don't see why we should be nice about it.

Posted by: Tuyzentfloot | Apr 26 2020 11:12 utc | 576

My guideline is balance of power. In which direction does it shift and can we compensate for that. It is a kind of status quo thinking which I usually prefer over 'identifying the bad guy'.

Posted by: Tuyzentfloot | Apr 26 2020 11:39 utc | 577

In Germany the measures taken BEFORE the drastic seizure of individual freedoms (called lockdown) were already enough to lower the rate of infections significantly and below reproduction rate of 1!

So while doing a lot of damage (and now even influencing the death rates due to measures) and putting so much individual social and econonomic suffering upon the people it seems really irrational to lock up people at home instead of using the proven to work measures like physical distancing, hygienic measures, isolation of sick people etc..

Taking constitutional rights from people with reasons that seem to do more harm then good is a double no-go for me, especially when you look at the developement of 1984ish systems potentially useful to gain total control over people (id2020, tracking apps implemented in operating systems google/apple etc.).

New studies show, that especially public transport is a major spreading place, so there should be measures exactly there, like explaining people that they should were masks and putting up more busses and trams not less, like they did in our country and therefore made it even more crowded.

And countries should decide for themselfes how to handle it you cannot compair them to each other if theyre not relatively similar in population, way of living, climate, social/cultural behaviour, healthiness of people, age of people, quality of air etc.. AND not to forget the medical system. Still I feel it's been a very hard overreaction by most countries and those countries that did not overreact like sweden still dont have the overrun of hospitals.

In germany we have had so much fearmongering like its a killer virus.. that has nothing to do with the real death rates (not of sick hospitalized people but of the overall group like youve seen in studies from the cruiseship, in iceland, germany, south korea etc.) Its definitly a propaganda campaign and you have to question why is that?

If you take a look at sweden, who have a less icu beds and hospital capacity and no lockdown and still not the overflow of hospitals that is told as reason you may wonder what numbers these people are using. Then you look at their arguments and it's often based on computer modelling instead of real data that we already have. The same models that initially predicted millions of deaths are still being used in a way and some institutions have shown no intereset in creating real data instead, which would have been there f*n job.. but now (for some weeks) there is enough data to stop the irrational actions.

meanwhile swedes are building up heard immunity which is the most natural way to deal with any pandemic and which has had humanity survive the likes of corona viruses, flu etc. I wonder if we don't "want" that so big pharma can ultimately "safe" us?

if you're interested in an evergrowing staple of non-mainstream-panic "may bill gates safe us all" data and analysis I suggest you keep this site bookmarked:

Posted by: Felix Stephan | Apr 26 2020 13:28 utc | 578

MoonofAL, you completely missed the clarifier in Kit's last reply that you posted. He said "It’s a lot more dangerous to healthy people and children than #covid19, as any epidemiologist will tell you." The clarifier you missed was "healthy people and children". I don't know if what Kit said is 100% accurate, but we know the flu kills 100s-1000s of children every year here in the US. The flu doesn't selectively kill the elderly and diseased at significantly higher rates in the way that CV does. But you didn't post graphs of flu vs CV fatalities for healthy and children. You posted graphs of the impacts on the population as a whole to make your point. Sweden never closed their elementary schools and they've reported 0 deaths for 0-18 year olds. The Chinese population is obedient to the state as a part of their society/culture. Western societies are not anything like that and we value freedom and individuality in a way the Chinese people don't. You have this notion that we will be able to "stop the epidemic" in the West in the same way that China did. That is impossible for this epidemic. The Swedish epidemiologists have cited this disparity in cultural values in their reasoning for choosing their approach. It was either completely destroy Western society/culture/values in a vain and futile attempt to slow the spread of the virus or embrace Western values and emphasize personal responsibility and protection of the vulnerable segments of the population. In the US, what we are doing is complete insanity. Outside of NYC, hospitals are largely at normal capacity or lower and we're sending infected nursing home residents back to their nursing homes in order to keep these underwhelmed hospitals from being overwhelmed. People are most definitely dying from COVID, and we know who they are - elderly and adults with pre-existing medical conditions. It's possible find a way to function in society and still protect that vulnerable segment of the population without authoritarian measures. The primary problem with accepting authoritarian measures to stop an unstoppable epidemic is that new measures won't be temporary. When have they ever been? You think that people like Kit and James Corbett have blinders on, but they don't - they can see the dystopian future we are headed for. The people with blinders on are people like you and Mark Sleboda and sadly many others.

Posted by: Lisa P | Apr 26 2020 13:35 utc | 579

Australia has had minimal deaths from covid-19 yet we have had a savage lock down.

Australia, 80 deaths, average age, 75-80 years.

One million jobs lost, the sacrifice of 12,000 jobs per death.

Perhaps 100,000 businesses destroyed, 1200 businesses ruined per death.

150 billion extra dollars borrowed from the debt markets, bearing compound interest, using the Australian taxation streams and national treasures as collateral, a mere two billion dollars for each 80 year old who would have died in the next couple of years anyway.

And this makes sense to our politicians? Give me a break!

Somebody needs to explain why the virus is impotent in Australia – is it the cleansing effect of the sun? I must admit, I have no idea!

Posted by: Ric G | Apr 26 2020 15:20 utc | 580

b. I praise you for following science, unlike so many in the independent press. I admire your capacity to read so many stupid messages without deleting them all and banning these simpletons. Their usual line of thinking is "governments lie, steal, kill" so it cannot be something else happening here. Their reasoning is based on previous observations and thus, it is fallacious. One should conclude based on current observations, data, events. Sapere Aude, goddamnit.

The pandemic is *real*, the virus is extremely dangerous and excess deaths are undeniable. These are the conclusions of all of the demographic experts I discuss with on a daily basis across ten universities in North America and some in Europe. Differing opinions are posted by fly-by-night bloggers, improvised data analysts and their hordes of simpleton conspiracy theorists.

Posted by: melkiades | Apr 26 2020 20:02 utc | 581

It's a sad bizzo when non-amerikans get caught up in the amerikan rethug indoctrination.
Especially when so few amerikans are buying it.
The so-called mass demonstrations in big cities against the lockdown are lucky if a few hundreds turn up. It seems as though the former tea party activists who guaranteed to orange buffoon that they could turn out tens of thousands as they had occasionally managed in their heyday, are well past their use by date now. Many of the rabidist rethugs are baulking at getting out there since they fall right smack into the 'most likely to die from covid 19' group so don't want to do anything that requires them to slime out from beyind their keyboards, so sites like MoA are copping the rough end of the pineapple.

I noticed some kiwi whined about the Aotearoa lockdown in one of these threads. What he didm't bother to mention was that the leader of the kiwi conservative party National had a whinge about the 'draconian' lockdown & came very close to losing his gig.
As Martyn Bradbury explains:

…Twitter & the Woke Twitterati don’t mean anything to public opinion (in fact what they are for the rest of NZ is generally aghast at), but Facebook sure as hell does represent middle NZ and the backlash on his page was a fair representation of where the electorate is right now.

Despite the criticisms of the Plan B Death Cult Capitalists, the vast majority of New Zealander’s accept and understand Jacinda’s decision and they are grateful for her leadership.


I don't trust Jacinda the airhead Ardern, much less those pulling her strings, neolibs cannot change their spots, but the fact is lockdowns in most nation states have been successful because Jo/Joe Blow generally have a better reading of science than any self-serving pol and they are making lockdowns successful in spite of governments, rather than because of them. France is one of the few exceptions where Macron who has less chance of reading the public mood than he has of reading a Russian Orthodox bible in its original cyrillic, lead the french lockdown with the gendamerie and is paying the price.

Most other nation states chose not to try to heavy the citizenry and consequently citizens feel they have an ownership of their nation's lockdown so support it.
Yes even in amerika.
Which is driving the trumpists nuts since orange buffoon foolishly imagines he can get both the dow jones and unemployment statistics looking good by November.
He cannot and if he was half as smart as he pretends to be, he would ease up on trying to convince the voters that they are stupid & gullible & instead sell some aspect of the flawed amerikan containment program.

Then perhaps the tea party handmaidens to the billionaire set would find someone else to annoy.

They too are trying to win people over by insulting them. None of us trust any politician as far as a fart could blow one of the obese drongos, but most of us can read graphs & from time to time agree with those generated by types with no obvious axe to grind.

Telling us we cannot, that we are holding it upside down, or worse there is some arcane & secret conspiracy that relies on a few hundred thousand non-political humans located in pretty much every society on this planet, is even stupider than the climate change denial tosh. In that one the only buyers are those with an interest oil produces & the mugs that they can convince.
Those of us who have actually lived our lives & y'know experienced stuff, not just read & fantasized it, know all too well that any successful secret plan becomes an order of magnitude less likely to have success, for every human required to be in on the secret. By my consistently indifferent maths, I reckon the chances of a successful coronavirus conspiracy scam are about 10 to the power of 70000 to one against. ie No chance.

Posted by: A User | Apr 27 2020 8:42 utc | 582

I'm sorry to see you spreading this kind of authoritarian eulogies, B! You got this completely backwards...
Read this to find out why.

Posted by: LXV | Apr 27 2020 8:54 utc | 583

Only 12 years in prison for human trafficking (and in this case, under age) in Ukraine???
Good business...

Posted by: Mina | Apr 27 2020 9:03 utc | 584

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