Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
April 24, 2020

Exceptionalistic Claptrap

The graphic below was published in a January 27 piece in Forbes. It shows the U.S., followed by the UK, to be the country which is best prepared for an epidemic.


bigger

Life has since debunked that assertion. The U.S. and the UK were evidently less prepared than most other developed countries.

But such delusions are typical for U.S. media. They are part of the constant sublime propaganda that indoctrinates the U.S. population to believe that their country is the best and greatest ever.

Today the New York Times offers up a related piece of extreme self deluded claptrap:


bigger
BERLIN — As images of America’s overwhelmed hospital wards and snaking jobless lines have flickered across the world, people on the European side of the Atlantic are looking at the richest and most powerful nation in the world with disbelief.

“When people see these pictures of New York City they say, ‘How can this happen? How is this possible?’” said Henrik Enderlein, president of the Berlin-based Hertie School, a university focused on public policy. “We are all stunned. Look at the jobless lines. Twenty-two million,” he added.

“I feel a desperate sadness,” said Timothy Garton Ash, a professor of European history at Oxford University and a lifelong and ardent Atlanticist.
...
The pandemic sweeping the globe has done more than take lives and livelihoods from New Delhi to New York. It is shaking fundamental assumptions about American exceptionalism — the special role the United States played for decades after World War II as the reach of its values and power made it a global leader and example to the world.

No. The world is not missing American leadership. That's because most people of the world are not "ardent Atlanticists."

Their fundamental assumptions about the U.S. is that it is exceptional only in its warmongering and cruelty. Poll after poll have shown that "the world" does not have a widely positive picture of the U.S. It instead sees it as the greatest threat:

  • According to a 2017 Pew survey, 39% of respondents across 38 countries consider U.S. influence and power a major threat to their countries, compared to 31% for both Russia and China. That’s up from 25% in 2013, when the survey was conducted previously.
  • Approval of U.S. global leadership fell to 30% worldwide, per a January Gallup poll. That’s narrowly behind China (31%) and ahead of Russia (27%). It’s also the lowest score in the 10 years the survey has been conducted, and down from 48% in Barack Obama’s last year.
  • America’s favorability around the world has fallen sharply, particularly among key allies like Mexico, Canada and Germany. And that was before Trump's trade war and Iran deal withdrawal.

The NYT piece quotes four white European men from think tanks and universities who are all known for pro-U.S. views plus a French man of of Arab heritage who works for the Atlantic Council, a U.S. think tank financed by the U.S. government and U.S. weapon producers. A quote from one U.S. neoconservative is also included.

The NYT writer, Katrin Bennhold (pictured below), seems to think that their opinions represent "the world". Here is news. They don't.


bigger

The delusion and fake historic views in that piece are breathtaking:

The country that helped defeat fascism in Europe 75 years ago next month, and defended democracy on the continent in the decades that followed, is doing a worse job of protecting its own citizens than many autocracies and democracies.

Bennhold can be happy that her editors have cleaned up that still bad paragraph. On Twitter she had formulated it as this:

Katrin Bennhold @kbennhold - 9:37 UTC · Apr 23, 2020

America, which liberated the Europe of my grandparents from fascism 75 years ago, has been a global leader for the past 75 years. Now it is leading in a different way: 842,000 Americans have been diagnosed with Covid-19 and 46,784 have died, more than anywhere else 2/6

The U.S. did not liberate Europe from fascism. The Soviet Union did that. Between 1942 and 1945 it destroyed the German Wehrmacht on the eastern front. One can reasonably argue that D-Day and the U.S. invasion of occupied France in June 1944 was a mere diversion for the much larger Operation Bagration the USSR was launching in the east.

And what please has the U.S. led but the wars on Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq and numerous other countries?

Instead of defending democracy on the continent the U.S. launched coup after coup whenever majorities in Greece, Italy or other countries voted for too leftish parties. And who by the way helped to hold up Spain's fascist dictatorship under Franco?

Then this:

There is a special irony: Germany and South Korea, both products of enlightened postwar American leadership, have become potent examples of best practices in the coronavirus crisis.

The "postwar American leadership" killed 20% of all Koreans and supported fascist dictatorships in South Korea up to 1987. It has since opposed any South Korean leader who has tried to make peace with North Korea. What please was "enlightened" in that.

Someone should tell that ignorant and uneducated claptrap writer that the U.S. hegemonic 'leadership' is over and that the world has sound reasons to be happy about that:

Many defenders of U.S. hegemony insist that the “liberal international order” depends on it. That has never made much sense. For one, the continued maintenance of American hegemony frequently conflicts with the rules of international order. The hegemon reserves the right to interfere anywhere it wants, and tramples on the sovereignty and legal rights of other states as it sees fit. In practice, the U.S. has frequently acted as more of a rogue in its efforts to “enforce” order than many of the states it likes to condemn. The most vocal defenders of U.S. hegemony are unsurprisingly some of the biggest opponents of international law—at least when it gets in their way.

The relative decline of the U.S. is not a new development. It has been visible to outside observes for more than 20 years. But it is only now that some of the delusions that Hollywood,  main stream media and the establishment have held up for the last 20 years are finally falling away.

More such delusions will be buried when the extent of the new great depression the pandemic will cause becomes more visible.

Posted by b on April 24, 2020 at 17:23 UTC | Permalink

Comments
next page »

The most important book on the Soviet Union's victorious efforts in WW2 is Richard Overy's, Russia's War: A History of the Soviet War Effort.

It is unsurpassed in English-language historiography. Overy's conclusion is correct: "the Soviet war effort remains an incomparable achievement, world-historical in a very real sense." (Page 327).

Overy also makes clear that the Soviet Union inflicted "80 per cent of [German] battle casualties." (Page 327) And it was on the Eastern Front "that the overwhelming weight of the Wehrmacht was concentrated until 1944." (Pages 327-8)

The Western front mattered only on the margins.

Posted by: Prof K | Apr 24 2020 17:38 utc | 1

Can't happen soon enough. Hope they don't take everyone with them as they exit stage left in fury.

Posted by: ramon | Apr 24 2020 17:40 utc | 2

b... anti-americanism is popular and especially on moa! i agree that the msm does the usa no favours with drivel as exampled above... i think my biggest challenge is with the many one post posters who automatically assume everyone lives in the usa and therefore must also have a particular americentric viewpoint on everything.. fortunately some bright lights who also reside in the usa and post here at moa are a breathe of fresh air on these same topics.. my question is this - will the decline be fast or slow?? it is definitely happening, of that there is no question! i figure another 4 years with trump could work some real magic!! he could be like the captain who goes down with the ship!

Posted by: james | Apr 24 2020 17:40 utc | 3

b and Prof K,
yes and that should be completed by the about 4 millions german civil casualties
mostly due to the round the clock bombing of german cities .

Posted by: Charles Michael | Apr 24 2020 17:51 utc | 4

Many defenders of U.S. hegemony insist that the “liberal international order” depends on it. That has never made much sense. For one, the continued maintenance of American hegemony frequently conflicts with the rules of international order. The hegemon reserves the right to interfere anywhere it wants, and tramples on the sovereignty and legal rights of other states as it sees fit. In practice, the U.S. has frequently acted as more of a rogue in its efforts to “enforce” order than many of the states it likes to condemn. The most vocal defenders of U.S. hegemony are unsurprisingly some of the biggest opponents of international law—at least when it gets in their way.

Except that it depends on it. And the quoted paragraph itself explains why: the USA is capitalism's HQ, it is the financial superpower. The fiat currency system can only exist because the USA exists. And a universal fiat currency can only exist if there's one nation-state which can control the main commercial routes - in this case, the USN does this job.

The USA is the cornerstone of the “liberal international order”. That's why the European powers, Japan et al still do everything within their reach to protect the USA. If the USD Standard (and, therefore, the USA) falls, capitalism as we know it will disappear; what will come next, we can't know for sure with the information we have now. But yes, there is a “liberal international order”, and the USA is at its center.

Posted by: vk | Apr 24 2020 17:51 utc | 5

"The relative decline of the U.S. is not a new development. It has been visible to outside observes for more than 20 years. But it is only now that some of the delusions that Hollywood, main stream media and the establishment have held up for the last 20 years are finally falling away."

You won't credit him but thanks to Trump and his Qanon henchmen, a lot of people have had their eyes opened to 'Hollywood, main stream media and the Establishment'.

Just look at how a lot of media folk were hysterical that Trump
might have intervened in the Roger Stone case, requesting a lower sentence recommendation.The same folk sure didn't mind when Chicago D.A. Kim Foxx intervened to protect Jussie Smollett!

Is it self serving? - of course it is. But at this juncture,
when the choice was/is Hillary or Biden,Trump will do just fine for a lot of voters.

So here we are I guess...

Posted by: Skeletor | Apr 24 2020 17:53 utc | 6

Yep, just more "were're #1" BS, but, the world is seeing the bigger picture.
James, the aspersions being cast around here are richly deserved, and more than that, should be a catalyst for my fellow citizens to engage in a bit of introspection. Something most Americans no nothing of.

It could be an opportunity for growth by the American public..

We'll soon see.

Posted by: ben | Apr 24 2020 17:54 utc | 7

I suggest troothsayer take on that oh so lowly and unthreatening "cold virus" that's already killed so many before it posts another letter on MoA.

Posted by: kalrof1 | Apr 24 2020 17:56 utc | 8

RELIABLE DATA ON COVID-19 MORTALITY - FINALLY!

Three new sources of information allow us to make estimates on the infection fatality rate of the new coronavirus.

1) New York City now has about 20,000 deaths from COVID-19 out of a population of 8.4 million. The official data lists 15,400 confirmed and probable deaths. New York Times finds 19,200 excess deaths between March 11th and April 22nd. This means that the mortality so far is 0.24% making the pandemic worse than the 1918 "Spanish" Flu.

2) Data for the whole world lists 2,733,591 coronavirus cases and 191,185 deaths, giving a case fatality rate of 7.0%. Until now it has been useless to compare the reported numbers as deaths follow new cases by some two weeks and case numbers have been growing exponentially. Now new cases have peaked or slowed down in most countries because of the lockdowns and other measures.

New York City seems to have reached its peak for both deaths and new cases. The peak number of confirmed deaths was 546 on April 7th. The average number of new cases for the week ending April 7th was 5070, which is close to the peak weekly number. Comparing peak to peak we get a case fatality rate of 10.8%. (This is a low estimate, as the peak in deaths should be spread over a longer period than the peak in new cases.)

3) The State of New York has done antibody testing and found that in New York City 21.2% of those tested showed antibodies for COVID-19. The semi-random sample was picked to be tested outside supermarkets. As the people doing shopping are less likely to have self-isolated in the past I think it is more reasonable to say that 10% of New Yorkers may have been infected. Also, it is likely that those infected are younger and healthier than the average population.

20,000 deaths out of 840,000 infected gives an infection fatality rate of 2.4%. No, this is not a flu!

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Apr 24 2020 17:59 utc | 9

This term "Atlanticists" has no meaning in the minds of most people.

I believe it came from the Faker aka the Saker and his other mind-numbing term "AngloZionist".

The Faker is a graduate of the Did you mean: Paul Nitze School of International Relations.

The same training ground for such enlightened souls as Madeleine "Not So" Bright, Wolf Blitzer, Timothy Geithner, and many others who could be labelled as "Atlanticists" aka "globalists" aka the Elite that run the policies and geopolitical goals of the Yankee/British/Israeli "Axis of Evil".

Otherwise, a good article.

Posted by: David Chu | Apr 24 2020 18:03 utc | 10

Posted by: james | Apr 24 2020 17:40 utc | 5

i think my biggest challenge is with the many one post posters who automatically assume everyone lives in the usa and therefore must also have a particular americentric viewpoint on everything …
will the decline be fast or slow?? it is definitely happening, of that there is no question! i figure another 4 years with trump could work some real magic!! he could be like the captain who goes down with the ship!

I am a rare poster, but have to say your trump comment sounds like americentric viewpoint to me! A total collapse of the US economy won't just affect muricans like me, it will cause a world of hurt. I think Putin's recent actions suggest he is trying to engineer a soft landing for the US to a diminished but still leadership role in a multipolar world. In my view, Putin will be more effective at influencing that future than Trump ever could.

Posted by: Weekender823 | Apr 24 2020 18:09 utc | 11

U.S.A. is number one in making toilets, and pooper rooms. This is a world accepted fact. All who ever sat on a U.S.A toilet in an American style bathroom would agree. (Now the business of simply wiping with toilet paper vice properly washing one's butt after a poop as is done in many other countries, that is another issue.

Posted by: Robert | Apr 24 2020 18:21 utc | 12

Anyone who thinks corona is a “cold virus” is a jackass.

Posted by: Disgusted | Apr 24 2020 18:21 utc | 13

Good comments James.
Your posts seem more deliberate, less venting than most of us so you're one I look for.
I would say though that almost all of us here in the U.S. are more addicted and more deluded than others. Kindof like the tough guy that isn't so tough, the pretty girl that's not that pretty, the rich boy who thinks he has lots of good friends. Right now most people (friends, family, neighbors) are scared.
Regarding speed of the collapse, I'm guessing it will be fast, this year. The people out here in rural Illinois know who they don't like-- reds hate blues and blues hate reds-- but most are also questioning their own superheroes: Dem support and disaffection for their party is growing and even Repub support for Trump appears to be weakening a bit. If the corn and bean crop doesn't turn them a profit farmers are in really bad shape and could turn their anger against all of Washington.

Posted by: migueljose | Apr 24 2020 18:22 utc | 14

@weekender #15
I suppose putin is trying to prevent a cornered cat from picking a fight. It is very tempting for an empire in decline, with massive unemployment rates, to recruit many soldiers, print the money out of thin air, then martyr itself by starting and loosing a major war.

Posted by: Joost | Apr 24 2020 18:28 utc | 15

"The relative decline of the U.S. is not a new development. It has been visible to outside observes for more than 20 years. But it is only now that some of the delusions that Hollywood, main stream media and the establishment have held up for the last 20 years are finally falling away."

Well actually it's been 40 years:

The U.S. lost its key manufacturing industries (autos, electronics, etc.) to the Japanese in the 1980s, all the while denying that their industry was in decline.

In the 1990s the U.S. replaced their lost manufacturing with the 'illusionary' 'dot.com' industry.

In the 2000s the U.S. next resorted to fraud (subprime mortgages packaged as AAA money market paper) to transfer money from those who still had a little, to those who had already lost their money and were still trying to maintain their previous life.

In the 2010s the U.S. simply printed money, in order to buy what they could not produce themselves, running up debts that they know would never be repaid.

And now, the whole house of cards is crashing down. The ever more rapid money printing can never end. And when the dollar inevitably collapses the delusions will end.

Posted by: dh-mtl | Apr 24 2020 18:30 utc | 16

More such delusions will be buried when the extend of the new great depression the pandemic will cause will become more visible.

Posted by b on April 24, 2020 at 17:23 UTC | Permalink

That sentence is deserving of a special Pulitzer Prize.

Unfortunately, the CBO is way too over optimistic; equates the BLS - bureau of lying stats. More on target:Shadowstats and St.Louis Fed projections

========

[...]"Except that it depends on it. And the quoted paragraph itself explains why: the USA is capitalism's HQ, it is the financial superpower. The fiat currency system can only exist because the USA exists."[.......] (emphasis added)

Posted by: vk | Apr 24 2020 17:51 utc | 8

What utter convoluted rubbish!!! You outdid yourself, extremely! Exceptional wishful thinking.

By inference you imply; all nations currencies are USD denominated or are pegged to the USD.

Posted by: Likklemore | Apr 24 2020 18:32 utc | 17

Posted by: troothsayer | Apr 24 2020 18:09 utc | 14

Per New York Times the death rate (IFR) is 0,5, which is 25 times higher death rate than the Swine Flu. Combined with being more contagious disease.

0.5 percent IFR, Andrew Cuomo said.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/nyregion/coronavirus-new-york-update.html

Posted by: Passer by | Apr 24 2020 18:32 utc | 18

@Bernhard:

Brilliant. No other words for it. All the shit you had to take from the "Corona-Hoax" people, only seems to make you even stronger... Maybe that can sheer you up a bit..

For the German speaker here, check out the Book/Ebook "Cold War Leaks" by Markus Kompa, published by Telepolis.
Most of the well and lesser known leaks, and MSM-suppressed info on the Empire, all in one handy book.
It quite cheap, and the author surely deserves any cent of it, but those who are not able to, should be able to get it from libgen.


Amazon Link - Markus Kompa - Cold War Leaks

Posted by: DontBelieveEitherPr. | Apr 24 2020 18:39 utc | 19

David Chu | Apr 24 2020 18:03 utc | 13

This term "Atlanticists" has no meaning in the minds of most people.

I believe it came from the Faker aka the Saker and his other mind-numbing term "AngloZionist".

You are wrong there. With the term "atlanticist" it shows that b is a german. In Germany, an "Atlantiker" has been a political/economical term since at least the 1970s. It's supposedly similar to a US globalist who is for capitalism, liberalism (different from the normal US term: liberal, open society), open markets, democracy. Their proponents have a special club called "Atlantikbrücke": atlantic bridge.

Key for these people is the relationship with the US, which in practice makes them simply stooges for the US policy du jour.

If you want you can put this wikipedia article through google translator. Just be careful, it's a whitewashed description of what an Atlantiker is, typical for wikipedia on political topics:
https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantiker

Posted by: curious euro | Apr 24 2020 18:42 utc | 20

Sputniknews reports:

Leaked Document Reveals UK Government Warned in 2019 of Pandemic Risks

Marked “official, sensitive”, the 2019 National Security Risk Assessment (NSRA) was signed off by government chief scientific adviser Patrick Vallance, as well as a senior national security adviser to Boris Johnson.
A leaked secret UK Cabinet Office briefing paper reveals Whitehall ministers were warned in 2019 the UK needed a robust plan to deal with a pandemic virus and its consequences, with many of its cautions and recommendations directly echoing the issues currently[.]

Recommendations include stockpiling personal protective equipment, inking advanced purchase agreements for other essential items, establishing procedures for disease surveillance and contact tracing, dealing with a surge in excess deaths, and repatriating British nationals caught abroad during an outbreak.[.]

More with Scribd.

=========

Craig Murray charged with Contempt of Court for his reporting on Alex Salmond sexual assault trial. Mr. Murray notes:


"The mainstream media gave detail of prosecution evidence and copied out the most sensational phrases of allegation to make lurid headlines; they gave virtually no detail of the defence witnesses or what they said on oath...Were it not for my reporting, the verdict would have seemed utterly perverse to the people of Scotland. Fortunately this blog has a large enough reach, sufficiently amplified by many thousands of other social media users, that I was able to get the truth out far enough to people, particularly within the Independence movement, to make a very real difference. Despite the concerted attempts of the Crown to prevent me,"

Posted by: Likklemore | Apr 24 2020 18:46 utc | 21

Posted by: Skeletor | Apr 24 2020 17:53 utc | 9

The way I see it, conspiracy theory is "anything that contradicts the MSM propaganda - unless that conspiracy theory has been propagated by the MSM itself". Moon of Alabama, and by implication it's posters, have been cynically smeared by bought-and-paid-for shills like propornot.com. Ironic you talk about qAnon, which is just another MSM conspiracy theory, false flag or unicorn - take your pick.

Posted by: moe | Apr 24 2020 18:48 utc | 22

People without a means of support? But I thought capitalism was the best thing ever! 😃

Posted by: Harharhar | Apr 24 2020 18:50 utc | 23

@ 13 "Atlanticist" may not have a lot of meaning to most people out there, but that doesn't mean it isn't a good word to describe the US and Western European power center. The first time I heard it was from Kees van Der Pijl in his book "The Making of an Atlantic Ruling Class." And the term Anglo Zionist is a very good description of the US / Western Europe / Israeli power block. I don't understand your dislike for the Saker, but it doesn't matter to me. I agree that Atlanticist and globalist are more or less interchangeable. I guess globalist would include Japan, too. Would you rather use the term Tri-lateralist?

I am from the United States. I agree that my country has been a large purveyor of much evil in the world. And a lot of it has been directed at its own subjects. There are many good people in this country who are just trying to get by.

Neoliberalism was waged against the US populace as it was unleashed on the world at large. It seems like it really began to gather steam when the dollar was taken off the gold standard. That was the start of the second Cold War according to Kees van Der Pijl, at least in my understanding of what he has written. I learned that in his book MH 17, Ukraine and the New Cold War. The powers that be began to outsource US jobs. Then austerity and privatization.

I don't know why I am commenting. I alway regret doing it. Pregret is a word I have coined for this sense. I know everyone here is a lot smarter than I am, and lately I have noticed that the commenters have become a lot less civil.

I did feel that your dismissiveness of the term Atlanticist merited a response though. As well as the hatred by a lot of people toward a the citizens of the US. The powers that be are treat us like subjects here. There is not much any of can do about the situation in reality. I'm sure most of you out there are aware we have a huge prison population. Filled with the descendants of slaves. We did a real genocide against the native people. The majority of people can't afford health care. I am one of them.

So for what it's worth, that's my take on the sad state of this country. Sorry for all the hell we have created.

Posted by: lex talionis | Apr 24 2020 18:51 utc | 24

vk @ 8 posted in part;"The USA is the cornerstone of the “liberal international order."


Guess if your definition of "liberal" means the "conerstone" nation can kill at will for profit, and change any regime at anytime or anywhere, maybe your post has validity, but not in my world.

The U$A is a capitalistic/fascist nation IMO, and that's one hellofa' long way from "liberal".

https://search.yahoo.com/search?p=liberal+definition&fr=yfp-t-s&fp=1&toggle=1&cop=mss&ei=UTF-8

Posted by: ben | Apr 24 2020 18:55 utc | 25

Nazi-German munition production share: 57-60% for air&sea warfare, only 30-33% for land warfare. Luftwaffe combat losses: 75% against western allies, 25% in eastern front. Losses of Kriegsmarine: 90-92% against western allied. German AA-artillery: 12-14% in Eastern Front. German concrete shelter construction (4.5 bn RM in 1943): 80% targeting western allied strategic air war.

All in all. Majority of German munition production was not targeting Eastern Front war. In fact 60% if not even 65% went to war against western allied. Why German war machine collapsed in east? Because 83% of Jagdwaffe from late 1943 was NOT in east.

If eastern front was "main front" then why great majority of German war effort (production, resources) was not targeting was against Soviet U?

Posted by: Ernesto | Apr 24 2020 19:05 utc | 26

Posted by: troothsayer | Apr 24 2020 18:09 utc | 14

Usin the fata from the worldometer the deaths in NY state today are 21283, and you say in the NY state the Covid seems to affects the 13,9% of the total population, that means 19450000 x 0,139 = 2703550 people, and so the % of lethality is = 21.283/2.703.550 x 100 = 0,79%

But you have to take in account some other facts:

a) There are 225.835 cases in NY state, the percentage of people recovered is very low, so the percentage of the people ill that "have an outcome" is still low, and taking account the people that have an outcome (recovery or death) the lethality can grow a lot, we are still at the begining of the infection and this disease take many many weeks from the infection to the death of the patient

b) As in many countries the official number of deaths does not explain the huge increase in mortality that can be seen in the MoMo reports (Mortality Monitoring), normally MoMo statistics in NY indicate there should be many more deaths than the official numbers

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html

This happens because in many cases there are no tests available to test the dead person, and in other cases as this disease produce also heart attacks and liver and kidney failures, a lot of doctors put another cause instead of Covid-19, but the mortality statistcs indicates something is killing people at an speed never seem in many decades.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/how-does-coronavirus-kill-clinicians-trace-ferocious-rampage-through-body-brain-toes#

c) We have to wait for the re-infections and future waves, as in 1918, we have to wait at least a year and see the statistics os excess of mortality to have a real view of how many people this virus has really killed, and I am affraid we will have a nasty surprise then

Of course this is not a flu (or may be yes, the 1918 flu)

Posted by: DFC | Apr 24 2020 19:10 utc | 27

Passer by @22 and troothsayer @ 14

The medically significant rate, ie for patients, is the probability of death from disease when you are infected. Period.

The rest is epidemiological indexes used for other calculations, and also by politicians (and the inept medical establishment, too) to confuse people. Sometimes the term case fatality rate (CFR) will cover the death probability on a denominator of symptomatic (=sick) patients, sometimes not (if they consider all persons testing positive it may get you a denominator much wider or smaller than the sick population, depending on testing policy and politics), and most of the times a confusing mix of the two.

We now know the effective mortality rate for people who were sick, thanks to Wuhan. The health system in Wuhan, which traced and identified all signaled cases from very early on and did the necessary testing, has reviewed all data and reported after completing the data mop-up and success in stopping the epidemic. Their case definition includes the positives on their extensive testing and typically symptomatic cases, too. They report a total of roughly 50,000 infected and of these 4,000 are deceased with the disease, so an effective death rate of 8% overall. We also know that the rate of sick patients to infected people vary immensely depending on age, and that age-adjusted mortality goes from some 1-2% below 40 to 15% (same as Russian roulette) over 80, so you can do your calculations and compare to seasonal flu...
start with https://www.rt.com/news/486073-china-wuhan-revised-death-toll/

Posted by: Piero Colombo | Apr 24 2020 19:16 utc | 28


"topics.. my question is this - will the decline be fast or slow?? it is definitely happening"
James i appreciate your views. anyway feel that the true point and question is not the speed of the fall.
It is rather the lightning speed of the perception in Europe, asia, LA that all the brag of US exceptionalism in MSM, movies, TV series, and overal news portals - the so called US soft power, has been pure outright crap lie.
And nobody likes to be deceived like that.
on the other hand look at China: they have just come to rescue the WHO with 30 million -additional- after the exceptional trumpesque decision to defund the WHO.

Posted by: augusto | Apr 24 2020 19:21 utc | 29

@ Posted by: Likklemore | Apr 24 2020 18:32 utc | 21

Yep. Pretty much that.

When two nations not named USA trade between themselves, they always use three fiat currencies: their own + USD.

That's true even for countries that are enemies of the USA. For example: Venezuela is selling oil to China and they decided they'll use their own national currencies in this transactions. A naive mind would think that they would just directly convert Renminbi with Bolivares, but that's not what happens in real life.

Fiat currencies are purely imaginary: they don't have any value by themselves. For a fiat currency system to survive, there must be one supreme fiat currency to be used as the universal currency, so the other fiat currencies can compare between themselves.

So, China would have to spend Renminbis to buy the correspondent quantity of USD in a clearing house. This clearing house will usually be in London (that's what keeps the British economy afloat: financial services). London will then buy USDs with the Renminbis, and then use those USDs to buy Bolivares (all of that with a fee). The Chinese then have the Bolivares with which to buy Venezuelan oil.

For a direct dual-currency transaction to occur, an independent institution, with a large enough fund in the two currencies, would have to exist. And they do: there is one between Russia and China, for example. But this financial architecture is still too small, very timid - very far from threatening the USD supremacy.

So, yes, even countries like Russia, China, Cuba, North Korea and Iran have to sustain the USD. They'll have to swallow that bitter pill for the foreseeable future, as it is only the USA which has a strong enough Navy to control, by violence, the main routes of goods. We live in a maritime world still, and the USA is still the King of Seas, a title it took from the British Empire at the end of WWII.

@ Posted by: ben | Apr 24 2020 18:55 utc | 29

"Liberal" here means "ideologically capitalist". Not to mix with capitalist as a member of the capitalist class, an owner of the means of production.

Classical Liberalism is dead, but it still exists in its reincarnated form - neoliberalism (literally "new liberalism").

Posted by: vk | Apr 24 2020 19:21 utc | 30

Ernesto 3
The Todd organization had time to build the Atlantic wall as a defensive position;
the Easten front was never stabilized enough.
Same goes about the defence against Air terror bombing of civilian targets in Germany.What you call strategic bombing.
And by the way, so was it in Corea, Vietnam, Irak, and so on.

120 division in the West versus 350 in the East not counting many nazi allies.
80 % of german military casualties were on the East front.

Posted by: Charles Michael | Apr 24 2020 19:24 utc | 31

Based on my reading of popular news outlets and essays, speeches, the current term "liberal international order" was born out of anti-Russian propaganda. The Russians were not only out to get a few enemy countries (and Hillary personally), but was a civilizational threat egads. The term basically means the US and its European lacky allies. It is self promoting PR against the anti-Western imperialist Slavic and now Asiatic East.

I believe that much of the anti-Russian propaganda has its echos if not origins in German Nazi propaganda. The Nazis (and indeed their current brethren spread across Europe and North America) believed that the Jews were not only trying to destroy Germany (America), but also trying destroy the entirety of European civilization (EU). Which in current terms is the liberal international order. This term helps justify the hysterical anti-Russian rants in the mass media of North America and the EU. This is an old anti-Semitic narrative updated.

Posted by: Erelis | Apr 24 2020 19:31 utc | 32

"So, yes, even countries like Russia, China, Cuba, North Korea and Iran have to sustain the USD. They'll have to swallow that bitter pill for the foreseeable future, as it is only the USA which has a strong enough Navy to control, by violence, the main routes of goods. We live in a maritime world still, and the USA is still the King of Seas, a title it took from the British Empire at the end of WWII."

I find this somewhat hard to believe.
I'm pretty sure that if say Russia wants to ship something to Venezuela that the US could not stop the ship without some extremely serious consequences.

Posted by: arby | Apr 24 2020 19:34 utc | 33

Losing 14,600,000 soldiers deceased in 1941-45 was likely not best proof of "effective" Soviet Red Army (and 167,976 in Winter Was against Finns 1939-40). Pyrrhic victory playing certain role in process of collapse of Soviet Union. Even marshal Zhukov admitted in early 1960's that without western aid "we won't have been able to create our strategic reserves" and "continued the war".

So - did Soviet U really liberate Europe or was it Uncle Sam giving tools to do it? Soviet blood and western technology?

Posted by: Frankie | Apr 24 2020 19:35 utc | 34

Ernesto is very wrong on the most important points.

In the east, Germany and her allies had 228 divisions, compared with 58 divisions in the west, only 15 of which were in the area of the Normandy battle in its initial stages.

Furthermore, more manpower and anti-aircraft artillery were deployed against bombing in the Reich than were available in France.

The German army was well aware of the greater threat: the revived Soviet war machine.

Finally, there was no major movement of manpower westward to cope with the invasion of France. And the Allied bridgehead in Normandy was contained, though not eliminated, with the troops already there.

Posted by: Prof K | Apr 24 2020 19:36 utc | 35

Petri Krohn@12

Please do not trust the serological tests!

Several serological studies for the presence of IgM-IgG antibodies have concluded that the percentage of individuals infected with the COVID-19 virus SARS-CoV-2 is 50-80x higher than the recorded cases, due to recovered asymptomatic cases that were not tested during the infection using the RT-PCR test.

Unfortunately, this serological test yields very high false positives “due to past or present infection with non-SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus strains, such as coronavirus HKU1, NL63, OC43, or 229E.” Yes, if a person has had a common cold they would likely test positive!!!
https://www.biomedomics.com/products/infectious-disease/covid-19-rt/

Other limitations mentioned by this manufacturer include:
(1) Lacks FDA review due to the urgency of testing;
(2) “Negative results do not rule out SARS-CoV-2 infection, particularly in those who have been in contact with the virus. Follow-up testing with a molecular diagnostic should be considered to rule out infection in these individuals.”;
(3) “Results from antibody testing should not be used as the sole basis to diagnose or exclude SARS-CoV-2 infection or to inform infection status.” “The COVID-19 IgM/IgG Rapid Test can be used to screen patients suspected of having been affected by the novel coronavirus. However, results of test should not be the only basis for diagnosis.”;
(4) Only used on fresh samples and tested immediately;
(5) “Results are valid 10 minutes after sample and buffer are combined in the cassette sample well. “;
(6) This test has a low sensitivity, as it has been determined to detect only 88.66% of those confirmed to be positive by the PCR test;
(7) This test have a low specificity of 90.63%, as 9.37% of those patients tested were not SARS-CoV-2 infected;

Other issues with serological testing in the fore mentioned studies include”:
(1) Lack of random sampling for age, sex, ethnic background, socio-economic status etc.
(2) Potential of super-recruiter bias from word of mouth of the drive by test site(s)

See also this video by a doctor of pathology on limitations of serological testing for COVID-19
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R8Pv77R3g1E

Given the measured sensitivity and selectivity from the above test one can calculate the following for a 1% infection rate (10,000) among one million people:
Positive cases found =8,866 (0.8866%)
False positives found= 92,763 (9.2763%)
Ratio of false/real =92,763/92,763+8,866 = 91.28% of positive tests are false

Thus the herd immunity is greatly exaggerated in serological testing. For instance, if a serological study claims that 20% of the population has been exposed to COVID-19, the actual percentage of the population exposed to this virus is actually 1.74%.

All such studies using serological testing should contain a BIG disclaimer on the accuracy of the results.


Posted by: krollchem | Apr 24 2020 19:38 utc | 36

@ Posted by: arby | Apr 24 2020 19:34 utc | 37

No, that's exactly how it happens 99% of the time.

Sure, Russia could do barter with Venezuela with gold - but even gold is indexed in USD nowadays (the gold standard doesn't exist anymore).

Posted by: vk | Apr 24 2020 19:42 utc | 37

Weekender823 @15: "I think Putin's recent actions suggest he is trying to engineer a soft landing for the US to a diminished but still leadership role in a multipolar world."

So is China. So is Iran. Heck, even Syria and Venezuela are trying to soften America's landing to the best of their abilities, despite all of the vicious hostility they get from the US.

Hysterical paranoia about everyone being out to "get them" is the dark flip side of America's delusion of exceptionality.

Posted by: William Gruff | Apr 24 2020 19:49 utc | 38

lex talionis @28

You do not have to feel guilty for all the wrong things your gov. has inflicted to many, in spite of living permanently in election cycles you have no choice, so not even that could be held against you, electing evil representatives. I've seen many a beautiful place ruined by the policies of your government, but at the same time I've met and worked with excellent USA people, deep inside I feel a bit sorry, the idea was good, the outcome it is still to be seen fully but it does not look good, a soft landing would be the best one can hope for. Still, I've enjoyed many a thing from the USA, now locked up I've been listening to Coltrane records, just a small example. A drastic change is needed, hopefully it'll come without much pain.

Posted by: Paco | Apr 24 2020 19:51 utc | 39

Some of you are mentioning "four more years of Trump". I believe there will be a putsch before.

Posted by: venice12 | Apr 24 2020 19:53 utc | 40

Posted by: Frankie | Apr 24 2020 19:35 utc | 38

Soviet Union already defeated the euro nazi armies at Moscow 1941 before the vast majority of supplies from the US arrived with only 1,4 % of total supplies arrived. Even in 1942 when combined euro nazi armies were defeated in Stalingrad, only 14 % of supplies from US have arrived.

So yeah, the Soviet Union broke the back of German Military Machine even before almost all of the supplies from the US have arrived.

Posted by: Passer by | Apr 24 2020 19:56 utc | 41

Posted by: Hail | Apr 24 2020 19:53 utc | 44

It was media pandemic in China? They are in joint conspiracy with the West? Iran is too?

Posted by: Passer by | Apr 24 2020 19:59 utc | 42

@30: 90% of German naval losses were against Western powers? You don't say. Next you'll be telling me the percentage of German tank losses on US or UK soil.

Posted by: passerby | Apr 24 2020 19:59 utc | 43

@43 Paco - Thank you for the kind words. There really is little most people can do affect change in this country. There were massive protests against the Gulf War waged by Bush the First. That resulted in nothing. Occupy Wall Street? Same. Voting doesn't matter aside from local issues. Etcetera etcetera. I do feel guilty, though. But mostly just plain sad.
I love John Coltrane. As well as his wife, Alice. His releases on Impulse are my favorites. In the words of Pharaoh Sanders, "The creator has a master plan." Thank you! And thanks to our host and everyone else here.

Posted by: lex talionis | Apr 24 2020 20:08 utc | 44

Trump just had one of his genius moments pondering whether disinfectant can be injected into people to cure the virus, or maybe insert some UV lights intro the patients. Now doctors and corporations all around the country are trying to explain to people that injecting bleach into your veins may be bad. This level of stupidity is actually unbelievable. I've refused to believe it until I saw the actual interview. I guess this is what decades of Hollywood "education" gets you.

Posted by: Tod | Apr 24 2020 20:09 utc | 45

VK, I don't understand you. I am quite sure that the US would not dare to stop a Russian ship.

Posted by: arby | Apr 24 2020 20:09 utc | 46

The The United States is the 1st only by absolute numbers, if you look at cases per 100,000 people, the U.S. is "only" twelfth. Also, countries with higher GDP per capita tend to have more accurate data (because of testing capacities), so if you compare the U.S. with Spain or other rich europian countries that won't look that bad.

Posted by: Xavier | Apr 24 2020 20:10 utc | 47

As 'b' has writtten:

"constant sublime propaganda that indoctrinates the U.S. population to believe that their country is the best and greatest ever" and destined by the hand of God to be the moral exemplar and sole leader of all humanity.

With God on their side, what else could the USA be but #1?

Indeed, mind-massaging 24/7, so effective that they believe anything told to them despite living through one more debacle, as long as it can be blamed on someone outside their borders, like China.

A scant few, maybe 5-10%, depending on the issue, have some other POV. But they fear retribution and so abandon their right to speak out.

It's not just a Nation of Sheep. It's a Nation of Brain-Washed Sheep.

Posted by: Red Ryder | Apr 24 2020 20:10 utc | 48

Posted by: Xavier | Apr 24 2020 20:10 utc | 52

Eastern Europe and East Asia are developed enough and they proved that the US/Western epidemic response is a joke and a massive embarrassment.

Posted by: Passer by | Apr 24 2020 20:17 utc | 49

vk "Fiat currencies are purely imaginary: they don't have any value by themselves. For a fiat currency system to survive, there must be one supreme fiat currency to be used as the universal currency, so the other fiat currencies can compare between themselves."

Currency values can be judged by its purchasing power of common commodities found in each country. Gold, grain ect. A third currency is not required.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 24 2020 20:22 utc | 50

Speaking as an historian, it has always baffled me how a country founded on genocide and enslavement, not to mention its continuing acts of imperialist aggression, could present itself as some kind of benevolent model for the rest of the world.

Although its author still seems to believe that the U.S. "democratic" project is fundamentally good, this article in The Atlantic helps to take the American Exceptionalist delusion down a notch or two: "We Are Living in a Failed State: The coronavirus didn’t break America. It revealed what was already broken"

Posted by: JPM | Apr 24 2020 20:25 utc | 51

Posted by: moe | Apr 24 2020 18:48 utc | 26

The way I see it, conspiracy theory is "anything that contradicts the MSM propaganda - unless that conspiracy theory has been propagated by the MSM itself".

Russiagate was a theory about a conspiracy.

A "conspiracy theory" is anything that challenges the official narrative. When someone says "conspiracy theory", this only shows that an official narrative exists and needs to be protected.

The difference between a "conspiracy theory" and "propaganda" is that propaganda has a foreign origin, while conspiracy theories are domestic.

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Apr 24 2020 20:26 utc | 52

Whilst we're on the subject of rank stupidity/ appalling dishonesty, Oz PM Scum Mo announced on Friday that Oz's Coronavirus tracking app will be provided by Amazon.com, one of the world's most notorious AmeriKKKan data thieves!? Oz's Intel Agencies have endorsed this move "because the 5-Eyes have heartily approved Sco Mo's choice..."

According to Oz computer nerds, the worst feature of the app, besides being from Amazon, is that the encryption key is embedded within the app which the nerds liken to putting a padlock on a securely bolted door and leaving the key in it.

I wasn't keen on downloading a tracking app approved by Scum Mo, the world's Most Secretive, Mendacious & Untrustworthy Christian Zionist national leader, before this announcement, but now I wouldn't use it if it came with a free, brand new, super duper I-Phone.

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Apr 24 2020 20:27 utc | 53

Capitalism as we know it will disappear; what will come next, we can't know for sure with the information we have now. But yes, there is a “liberal international order”, and the USA is at its center. by: vk |@ 8

Let me again explain, America and Americans are generally democratic in their thinking and in their sense of justice, but the USA is a republic, it does not give a damn about democracy, never did and never will.

Its in the definition of a republic that the Aristocracy will define and do everything. What the USA calls capitalism is far far from Capitalism. Why because Capitalism depends on the state to keep the playing field highly competitive..Each investment is suppose to create a new mouse trap, and the population is suppose to knock that mouse trap out of the box with new and better mouse trap. Every gain what ever it is becomes subject to the capacity of the many to find a way to overcome it with something even better. But the Aristocracy has ordered government to make anti-competitive laws (patents, copyrights, and to engage in acts of privatization and to make every effort at competition subject to license and so on) the Aristocracy have used the USA to take the competition out of the USA market place.. There is no capitalism left, its monopolism.

Americans want their democracy back, every vote since 1913 has said that .. but the powers to be have blocked the voters access to change or mandates.

I say it again and again and again the USA has failed America and Americans.

Posted by: snake | Apr 24 2020 20:39 utc | 54

@ Posted by: arby | Apr 24 2020 20:09 utc | 51

But they could.

In practice, however, this is seldom needed, because the USA is also the owner of the financial architecture (SWIFT), and there's also the power of incumbency: even for enemies of the USA, it is better to follow the tide most of the time.

--//--

@ Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 24 2020 20:22 utc | 55

Purchasing power has no relation whatsoever with fiat currency. Two different countries can use the same currency or currencies with the same value in USD and still have completely different purchasing powers.

But as a curiosity: even the concept of GDP PPP uses the USA as the standard. That's why the USA's GDP is, by definition, equal to its GDP PPP.

As I've said before, it is possible for two nations to trade between them using only their own fiat currencies. It indeed does exist, in sporadic cases. But it is extremely cumbersome, as a parallel financial infrastructure is necessary, with huge reserves of each currency, so that the prices will fluctuate a lot as expected, but the sheer size of the reserves will hedge them.

Posted by: vk | Apr 24 2020 20:44 utc | 55

Charles Michael @ 7:

My understanding is that the aerial bombing conducted against civilians in various cities in Germany in the later stages of WW2 were carried out not by Soviet warplanes but by Western Allied forces (mainly British, possibly also American) over the objections of some, like US General Dwight D Eisenhower (who was supposedly in charge of the Allied High Command in Europe at the time), against such a strategy. The preference among the Allies for such bombing seems to have come the then British Prime Minister Winston Churchill.

This is at the same time that civilians in Tokyo and other major Japanese cities were being subjected to aerial bombardment by US forces, resulting in massive conflagrations of neighbourhoods in which most houses and were made of wood.

Posted by: Jen | Apr 24 2020 20:48 utc | 56

UKC against Lockdown!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UT309TYf3js

Posted by: JC | Apr 24 2020 20:52 utc | 57

See the third sentence of

https://www.world-war.co.uk/loss_edinburgh.php3

and get back to us on how Uncle Sam was “giving” the tools like it was out of the goodness of his heart.

Posted by: Cortes | Apr 24 2020 20:59 utc | 58

Just to add a quiet voice here from Germany: Aside from our disgust for and incredulous amazement about your orange leader, most people I talk to feel pity for the American folks and unemployed and their suffering. Not to mention the upcoming perception that our grandma in charge is going to fuck up big time as well.
Just saying. So you don't get the impression that we despise the American people.
It's the government, stoopid! ;-)

Posted by: Cemi | Apr 24 2020 21:01 utc | 59

Arby @ 37:

I'm sure that this time last year when the US was promoting Juan Guaido as the legitimate President of Venezuela and Richard Branson was pulling money out of Virgin Airlines to finance that pathetic aid concert at Cucuta on the Venezuela-Colombia border, and Venezuela was being squeezed by Western sanctions and its own anti-Maduro oligarchy who own companies that import food and other commodities, China was sending ships with medical supplies to the country. I think the sources of this information might have been RT.com, Telesur and Venezuelanalysis.com.

Posted by: Jen | Apr 24 2020 21:01 utc | 60

vk 60

After reading your reply and thinking on it a bit, stability of currencies would be an issuefor trading in own currencies, especially in small countries under attack many of which get hit by hyper inflation and so forth.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 24 2020 21:02 utc | 61

Posted by: krollchem | Apr 24 2020 19:38 utc | 40

Several serological studies for the presence of IgM-IgG antibodies have concluded that the percentage of individuals infected with the COVID-19 virus SARS-CoV-2 is 50-80x higher than the recorded cases, due to recovered asymptomatic cases that were not tested during the infection using the RT-PCR test.

Unfortunately, this serological test yields very high false positives “due to past or present infection with non-SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus strains, such as coronavirus HKU1, NL63, OC43, or 229E.” Yes, if a person has had a common cold they would likely test positive!!!

Yes, I am aware of the issue and have been saying the same thing. Any COVID-19 antibody test should be validated by testing blood bank samples from last year. Except that it would not give an accurate baseline as coronavirus infection rates and strains vary hugely from year to year. But it seems more and more people ate taking the serology results seriously.

Actually I even proposed using HCoV OC43 or HKU1 as an inoculation against COVID-19. This is what I posted on Facebook some days ago.

THE VIRUS IS THE VACCINE!

It has been suggested that parts of the population be exposed to or inoculated with the SARS-CoV-2 virus in order to build "heard immunity". There may however be a better method of achieving immunity to COVID-19.

Betacoronaviruses produce cross-immunity to one another. These include two viruses that cause the common cold. HCoV-OC43 produces 70% cross-immunity to HCoV-HKU. It has also been demonstrated to produce immunity against SARS-CoV-1 (the original SARS from 2003). I believe HCoV-OC43 could be useful as a vaccination against COVID-19.

There is one caveat however. It may be that no immunity, herd immunity or otherwise, against COVID-19 can exists. COVID-19 is like AIDS, it also attacks T-cells. Antibodies might not provide immunity, instead the virus uses them to attach to the T-cells. No vaccine against the original SARS has ever been successful, despite over 15 years of research.

***

Many vaccines use live viruses. Some vaccines use one virus or pathogen to protect against a different disease. The original "vaccination" used the vaccinia virus of cowpox as the vaccine against smallpox. The BCG vaccine against tuberculosis was developed from mycobacterium bovis bacteria found in cows.

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Apr 24 2020 21:04 utc | 62

"Purchasing power has no relation whatsoever with fiat currency."

Not the same, but I think intimately related. For a currency to be useful in international trade, the purchasing power must be relatively stable, and there must be liquidity, reliable financing, contracts, etc.

The Euro or RMB for example have the size and significance and powerful enough home regions to be global currencies, even if their links to the dollar were severed. It would be a huge inconvenience. Big business in Eurozone and China are not interested in any such thing now. I don't think they would be in the future either. But who knows, The past 20 years have been full of surprises ... really stupid ones for the most part. Best not to underestimate the willingness of 3rd rate imperialists who end up in organizations headed by people like Trump or Cheney, to pull whatever levers were left by their 2nd rate imperialist predecessors. Not that the Chinese or EU power structures would do any better if they had 50 years of noone saying no to them.

Posted by: ptb | Apr 24 2020 21:19 utc | 63

Petri Krohn

MERS also attacked T cells. In the coronavirus family tree, it is very close to the alfacoronavirus.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2012-7/figures/1

COV229E is common cold virus and an alfacoronavirus. I have no Idea if this would help immunity though.

The family tree is interesting in another way also. Just off the page at the top is SARS-1. Moving up from SARS-CoV-2, it can be seen many bat mutations where required to get to SARS-1.
SARS-CoV-2 just popped out of the base of that long list of changes containng the lower lung lobe attributes of SARS-1 plus the ability to attack T cells like MERS, and on to of that, highly infectious before symptoms appear which neither MERS nor SARS-1 had.

SARS-CoV-2 pretty much popped out of a harmless bat strain, highly developed for it life as a human pathogen, neatly combining attributes of other distantly related coronaviruses.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 24 2020 21:26 utc | 64

@Petri Krohn 12

I find your calculations for number of cases and death rates for the world and US rather confusing. If you took your 10% hypothetical positive cases for NY and applied it as a random sample for the rest of the world, the 2 Million plus number of total infected is suddenly a much larger number, rendering the total death rate less than 1%. Also, the numbers mentioned for NY should be added and calculated with rest of the country for total rate, which probably will decrease those values in question and even less when applied to the rest of the world.

Chances are the number of infected is much much higher than the official numbers, by an order of X10-25. I dont think we will truly know that at this time since we still don't have efficient and accurate anti-body testing.

Posted by: Alpi | Apr 24 2020 21:30 utc | 65

I would love some perspective on all the many good things Germany is doing to help hard hit nations like Italy. whoops, forgot where I was for a second. did everyone get their two minutes of hate in?

Posted by: lizard | Apr 24 2020 21:30 utc | 66

There are two ways you can design a virus-tracking application for a mobile phone. One trusts people to shoulder responsibility as citizens. The other aims to control and monitor a population.

1. Respecting privacy
You download the app and run it. When it is close to another phone's app, they say to each other "hey, we're close to each other now". When you've been close to someone for more than say 15 minutes, the apps say to each other "hey, its been 15 minutes, let's exchange phone numbers". The collected phone numbers remain on your own phone under your control.
If you are diagnosed, you can submit your list of phone numbers to a central site (or not). Those numbers go into a "bucket", and health workers take a number out of the bucket and contact those people to let them know that they have been in contact with someone (not known who exactly) recently so they should get tested.
This approach expects citizens to be responsible, and trusts them with their own data.

2. Controlling the population
You download the app and run it. The apps exchange phone numbers in the same way, but also the age, sex, postcode/zipcode, and name. This data resides on your phone (for now). If you are diagnosed with covid and you consent, your data is uploaded to the central database so they know exactly who was in contact with who.
The government in Australia announced an app like this (based on a Singapore app), and asked people to use it, but said that if 40% of people do not voluntarily use it, then they might make it mandatory.

I just wanted to point out that technology can be used in a way that does not automatically lead to people losing autonomy and power. The only reason such a banal statement needs to be made is that we see precious few examples of it being used in this way, especially if one is a subject of a Five Eyes country.

Posted by: Deltaeus | Apr 24 2020 21:32 utc | 67

@dh-mtl

"In the 2010s the U.S. simply printed money, in order to buy what they could not produce themselves, running up debts that they know would never be repaid."

How can it have debts if it is simply printing new money? Answer: it can't. 'Debt' in regards to federal spending is simply sloppy, outdated terminology.

And by the way, literally every country pays for its central government budgets by 'money printing' (except for the poor dumb bastards who decided to join the Eurozone, and are now held hostage by German fiscal illiteracy). It's breathtaking how people are incapable of engaging their critical thinking skills when it comes to fiat money.

The dollar isn't going to collapse, just as it didn't collapse the other five thousand times people have engaged in screeching about how the 'ponzi scheme is about to come crashing down!!!11one'.

In fact what the US needs to be doing right now is printing a bunch more money. Only this time give it to average people, rather than bailouts to industry.

Posted by: Benjamin | Apr 24 2020 21:41 utc | 68

@ Posted by: ptb | Apr 24 2020 21:19 utc | 68

For example: Brazil and China. Both had, some years ago, roughly the same average wage level and roughly the same per capita income. But the Real (BRL) is much stronger, in USD terms, than the Remninbi (RMB). Even today, the BRL is at five per USD (and, for a lot of years, it hovered around 2-3 per USD), while China adopts the policy of 7 RMB per USD.

But the purchase power in China is much higher than Brazil - double, to be exact. That's because, in China, goods are, relatively to their workers' wages, much cheaper. It's not how much a given commodity costs in money terms (price) that matters, but how much of the worker's income it devours.

There are many reasons why China has a much higher purchase power than Brazil. Suffice to say here that, as a rule of thumb, the more self-sufficient is a nation (in our post-industrial revolution world, that means the more industrialized is said nation), the higher its purchasing power. That's because goods produced inside the country are entirely traded with the country's fiat currency, so it is independent (or more independent) of USD fluctuations. The lower costs with transportation are just the icing on the cake.

Posted by: vk | Apr 24 2020 21:43 utc | 69

Deltaeus 72

Privacy is a non issue in the west. Anyone with a smartphone has lost it. Sort of like an old prostitute worrying that her virginity might get stolen.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 24 2020 21:44 utc | 70

Is incompetence the reason for the Covid19 "crisis? really? The national security state will be immeasurably more powerful as a result, while Pharma will be much wealthier as will Amazon, etc. cui bono? Let's see who had what before the crisis and who has what after the crisis in five years. The only people believing this Covid19 MSM narrative are same ones who believe in the magic bullet and 7 World Trade fire/collapse.

Posted by: skeptic23 | Apr 24 2020 21:52 utc | 71

David Chu @ 13

This term "Atlanticists" has no meaning in the minds of most people.

Nah, it's a reasonably well understood word in the UK where it has evolved to be a perjorative for pond-life with their noses firmly stuck up Washington's arse, such as Tony Blair, Kier Starmer and most of the Conservative Party.

<

I believe it came from the Faker aka the Saker ....

That damn fine dictionary, Merriam-Webster defines Atlanticism as a policy of military cooperation between European powers and the U.S. with the first use back in 1950. Atlanticist, defined as a supporter of that policy, has probably been around for a similar length of time. Nothing to do with The Saker.

Posted by: Ghost Ship | Apr 24 2020 21:52 utc | 72

a bit OT

Several media outlets report that the first death with or due to Corona in the US happened on February 6th. (see link for details)
for example: https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/22/us/california-deaths-earliest-in-us/index.html

I don't know about you but I find that timing somewhat odd. Even if one assumes that the first victim died fast, let's say 8-10 days from infection to death, that would mean the infection was sometime between 28-30th of January. And at least according to those articles community spread no less.

To put that into perspective..the WHO officially confirmed human to human transmission only a week earlier (22 January) and two weeks after the first case outside of China ( 13 January, Thailand).

I don't usually subscribe to conspiracy theories but that timing is off.
Either the virus jumped fairly directly from China to the US and spread there for a Month or more undetected or that whole official Timeline is somehow wrong.

Posted by: Noctua | Apr 24 2020 21:53 utc | 73

+1

Even as the United States self-destructs under its own callousness and the political and economic system it promotes around the world through violence and coercion is proven to be unfit for purpose, the NYT is clutching its pearls and wringing its hands in supremacist agony and denial. A fascinating blend of propaganda, cognitive-dissonance and outright delusion.

One quibble...instead of using “exceptionalist”, their preferred term, the word that best fits the American superiority complex is supremacist. It is an imperial nation built around a supremacist ideology.

Posted by: Daniel | Apr 24 2020 22:01 utc | 74

For those who fail to appreciate the exceptional USA are simply not in the 0.1% club:

  • exceptional income inequality;
  • exceptional militarism;
  • exceptional 'neoliberal capitalism' that informally blends state and corporate interests (aka "crony capitalism");
  • exceptional propaganda;
  • exceptional allies like Israel, Saudi Arabia;
  • exceptional aggressive foreign policy (New World Order!);
  • exceptional Stockholm syndrome - glorifying of the rich and the State;
  • exceptional guest worker program (millions of undocumented immigrants);
  • exceptional public services (police, education, health, etc.) whose administrators happily shape themselves into the instruments of torture required by an uncaring plutocracy.

  • exceptional political elite who are completely free of accountability - as long as they are serving the 0.1%;

    HTH

    !!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Apr 24 2020 22:10 utc | 75

For those who fail to appreciate the exceptional USA are simply not in the 0.1% club:

  • exceptional income inequality;
  • exceptional militarism;
  • exceptional 'neoliberal capitalism' that informally blends state and corporate interests (aka "crony capitalism");
  • exceptional propaganda;
  • exceptional allies like Israel, Saudi Arabia;
  • exceptional aggressive foreign policy (New World Order!);
  • exceptional Stockholm syndrome - glorifying of the rich and the State;
  • exceptional guest worker program (millions of undocumented immigrants);
  • exceptional public services (police, education, health, etc.) whose administrators happily shape themselves into the instruments of torture required by an uncaring plutocracy.

  • exceptional political elite who are completely free of accountability - as long as they are serving the 0.1%;

    HTH

    !!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Apr 24 2020 22:10 utc | 76

Petri Krohn@67

Thanks for the additional info!

Posted by: krollchem | Apr 24 2020 22:12 utc | 77

Anybody here who has made up their mind has also given themselves to fallacy. No amount of conjecture can bring us to a valid, objective insight into what is currently transpiring, for now we are drowning in falsities that are illustrated by neurotic pedlars of pure bullshit...
I for one have not seen for myself or heard from even one single reliable source, the deadly nature of this thing. What I have seen, however, are people who are normally quite sound of mind and otherwise grounded, critical thinkers completely lose any semblance of sanity regarding an invisible, apparent evil that politicians and news people (by all accounting the least reliable people on the fucking planet) tell them about. And even if by some miracle they are not lying to us, there are so many more important things to spend energy on. Look up statistics on how many children starve every year, and how much it would cost to feed and home them, and then relate that to this farce.
I am having nothing to do with this horseshit until it becomes clear what exactly the fuck is going on, and exactly how much the disaster capitalists have stolen. When the fog clears, I might buy a mask, to ease the stench of shock-doctrine thievery and pious self-congratulation that will ensue...

Posted by: Dan | Apr 24 2020 22:18 utc | 78

@vk 74

ok, so PPP is defined relative to local wages. It is meant for assessing standard of living. So maybe, saying that "stable PPP" is desirable for a good currency wasn't quite right. Some other measure of stability, that includes labor on both sides of the definition would be better.

The comparison of Brazil and China makes an interesting example too. The two countries have somewhat different economies as regards trade, in being importers or exporters of labor (embodied in many complex manufactured goods) vs materials? I'm not familiar enough with Brazil however.

The US is increasingly a massive importer of labor in the form of labor-intensive goods, (but also actual labor via nafta). Doesn't seem to matter. US is roughly neutral on materials, at least chivalrous to the other really big economies, who are either clear importers or exporters.

In any case I think the China-Eurozone relationship is the most important one, as an RMB-Euro system is the only currently viable international alternative to USD. Complementary in terms of labor-intensive-manufactured-goods. Both importers of materials, however. Add in either Russia and Central Asia, and you get something really interesting. Probably the Euro would have to be dismantled to prevent this.

Posted by: ptb | Apr 24 2020 22:22 utc | 79

"chivalrous" .... auto typo from phone.
should say "compared to"

Posted by: ptb | Apr 24 2020 22:23 utc | 80

Dan,


I agree with your comments fully. Bravo!
Hopefully with time people will see through the fog of the war against this virus before it is too late!

Posted by: Dennis Brown | Apr 24 2020 22:31 utc | 81

Dan @Apr24 22:18

You think TPTB shut down economies at a cost of tens of billions of dollars so that they can implement marginally stronger controller measures? Measures that they'd be able to institute anyway.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Apr 24 2020 22:32 utc | 82

@Peter Krohn (57) Not all conspiracy theories are created equal. Some are completely nuts and often designed to support a particular agenda (e.g. almost anything from the mouth of Alex Jones), while others are reasonable and consistent with evidence (e.g. the CIA may have been involved in the JFK assassination). At the same time, what might be called the “official narrative” may actually be true. Even those who control the narrative do not lie all the time, just enough of the time to raise suspicions about anything they say.

Posted by: Rob | Apr 24 2020 22:32 utc | 83

Until the current epidemic ends, and the WHO publishes its Country by Country statistical summary, I'm taking a break from Rigorous Science and evaluating the honesty and effectiveness of each country's COVID reporting by assuming an arbitrary ratio of 1 death per 100 infections.

Multiplying the Reported Deaths for each country by 100 reveals significant disparities in the Infection/Death ratio between countries which, imo, helps to identify countries which are probably understating either the total deaths OR the total infections.

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Apr 24 2020 22:33 utc | 84

Benjamin @73
"How can it have debts if it is simply printing new money? Answer: it can't. 'Debt' in regards to federal spending is simply sloppy, outdated terminology."

I believe that the dollar Bill is in fact an IOU. They do not just print the money for nothing. The treasury has to give the Fed Treasuries as collateral. These treasuries are backed by the governments right to collect taxes. This puts the taxpayer in debt.

Posted by: arby | Apr 24 2020 22:41 utc | 85

Benjamin | Apr 24 2020 21:41 utc | 73

'How can it have debts if it is simply printing new money? Answer: it can't. 'Debt' in regards to federal spending is simply sloppy, outdated terminology.'

The dollars, in themselves, are debts. Any country holding dollars, has the right to receive from the U.S. goods and services, i.e. something of value, in exchange for the goods and services that have already been provided to the U.S. That is the definition of a debt.

Many of these dollars were exchanged for formal debt, bearing interest. How do you think China ended up with more than $1 Trillion of U.S. Treasury securities.

This printing dollars and spending them on imports creates a national debt that will eventually need to be repaid, with something of real value. Something that is hard to do whey your economy can't even produce as much as it consumes.

By the way, printing dollars and spending them, with the idea that it incurs no debt, is like 'getting something for nothing'. Thermodynamicists will recognize that this violates the first law of thermodynamics, something that has never been observed in the history of the universe.

Dollars are only of value if you can exchange them for something of value. Print enough of them and they will only be good for wallpaper

Posted by: dh-mtl | Apr 24 2020 22:42 utc | 86

@ Posted by: ptb | Apr 24 2020 22:22 utc | 84

Yes, if the USA falls, what we probably have is a soup of fiat currencies, more or less like we have with the IMF nowadays.

Posted by: vk | Apr 24 2020 22:47 utc | 87

To Americans their country is not seen as a nation, but a religion. After all, they are God's country; at least to them. I was born and raised in the US before leaving 35 years ago for an opportunity that came my way and I have no wish to return. Americans are no different from others except for one thing; brainwashed from childhood. On my first day of kindergarten, the first thing the I learned was the Pledge Allegiance to the Flag; it only got worst from there.

I have traveled extensively through the US before I left and met many decent, kind, and intelligent individuals with whom I had interesting discussions on many topics. However, when the discussion turned to the US foreign policy or a mere criticism of a domestic policy they would become hostile are critical of such ideas. They can not comprehend that their believe system is in error. Americans are in a religious cult of American exceptionalism where they swim in a sea of propaganda beyond their ability to perceive.

I have visited the US over the years and recently there appears to be an awakening in some to the contradictions in their misguided idealism. Maybe this pandemic will awaken many more to the falsehoods coming from their government. I would suggest Americans read the history of France, specifically, the 30 years leading to the French Revolution. They may find the parallels enlightening.

Posted by: Dick | Apr 24 2020 22:49 utc | 88

VK, "they could",
LOL, and then what would a buck be worth?

The US bucks only real strength is imaginary like religion. Everybody believes it. Everybody.

Posted by: arby | Apr 24 2020 22:52 utc | 89

Jackrabbit | Apr 24 2020 22:32 utc | 87

No, I dont think that. But what I know is that as long as myself and the rest of us have no real insights into the immutable bylaws of global domination by sociopathic megalomaniacs, we cannot possibly fathom the causes or the likely outcome of this particular scenario. Whether it was manufactured or natural is not the point. I am pretty certain, however, that even if it were unforeseen and unpredicted, it will be taken advantage of. Come July, or whenever this whole shitshow ends, the curtain will not be raised and the fat lady will not have sung. No, my friend... We will all be walking like John Wayne after a cameo in Brokeback Mountain, wishing we had lubed up and insisted on protection...

Posted by: Dan | Apr 24 2020 23:02 utc | 90

Hoarsewhisperer 89

1% death rate with good medical care. Where hospitals become swamped, percentage rises considerably.
Early stages in China, Italy, Iran ect woild have gone above the 1%.
US, UK and France all seem to be in 737 MAX mode so anybodies guess what is going on in those countries.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 24 2020 23:21 utc | 91

James #5

"will the decline be fast or slow??"

Also, will it be bloody or not?

Examples from the previous century include Britain (slow, non-violent), and the demise of the USSR (fast, non-violent (relatively speaking).

The U.S. regime is likely to be dragged out kicking and screaming, one way or another.

One possibility is a Hollywood style mad max ending.

The most violent scenario would be to take the whole world with it in a nuclear conflagration.

Considering its militaristic history and civilian gun culture I think the most likely scenario is for the US to be headed for another civil war and eventually go down in flames in a matter of a year or two - mad max style.

What ever happens after that is anyone's guess..

Posted by: krypton | Apr 24 2020 23:31 utc | 92

The US is what its 1789 constitution plainly designed it to be: an oligarchy. Only wealthy male land owners were privileged to vote. The founders had a fear and loathing of the "mob". Since that time, the nation has been trying to democratize with numerous constitutional amendments, none of which has corrected the foundational framework of 1789. Today the elite owners of everything control the election process so that the nations most undemocratic ignoramus oligarch landlord sits on his White House throne arrogantly attempting to destroy the last remnants of a government by and for the people (the post office) and insulting journalists who dare to question his egregiously stupid pronouncements or his glaring incompetence. The dream of unalienable rights of the individual has produced a ruling elite of sociopathic billionaires & millionaires.

And its not like we weren't warned early on by a dispassionate European observer in the 1840's, an aristocrat of all people, Alexis de Toqueville who foresaw the development of the worlds worst despotism to be deployed by these emerging oligarchs, the industrial titans we fondly recall as "robber barons", and whose progeny rules us today and owns everything, including the government by and for the people. They were ruthless sociopaths then, pursuing their right to get rich, as Ronald Reagan phrased it later on,and they are sociopaths today in their relentless drive to steal ("privatize") whatever of the commons has not been exploited or monetized.

The US has been exceptional in its refusal to socialize itself. The pandemic is teaching an unwelcome lesson to these fools, most of whom claim to believe in god and prayer in the schools and reading the Bible. Americans are learning this is not a free-for-all and that they must consider that the public good often outweighs the private right to get rich and the sociopathy that this right entails. Those who adopt this right most fervently, the 1%, have impoverished us all.

It's over. Our Way Of Life that an earlier oligarch president declared would not be compromised, is over. But no other nation should rejoice. We shouldn't rejoice because there is no future for OWOL. There's megadeath in our future and a humble little coronavirus is the trigger. The other nations needn't look down their noses at the spectacle of US incompetence. Who's going to hold up Lady Liberty's torch now? There is no other nation that can do it. We drop it and it fizzles out in the ocean.

Posted by: jadan | Apr 24 2020 23:46 utc | 93

to lex and paco. Yes indeed. Murka has - some years ago admittedly - produced some great music. And it used to travel. Duke Ellington and the Ambassador, went every where. Ella in Berlin is an awesome album. So many. And Coltrane. Miles! I recently stumbled on a Peggy Lee/Benny Goodman album. Benny - without doubt the greatest of the greatest.

Now murka mostly exports moral hazard and bombs, but the music laurel is still huge and "you can't take that away from me."
Peace guys.

Posted by: Miss Lacy | Apr 24 2020 23:49 utc | 94

to jen #65. Yes, quite true what you said. And there are many more sources. That Branson is a nasty piece of work. Guido, aka wormboy, has been photographed palling around with colombian drug dealers. His uncle was arrested not too long ago for trying to smuggle C-4 into venezuela. Guido was on the same flight (from portugal) traveling under a false passport. He got caught as well. All the while, murka tightens up the sanctions, and was recently caught out bribing a former venezuelan military officer to lead an assault/assassination effort from colombia. The guy took fright, fessed up and fled to murka.

Throughout this, russia, china and cuba have been steadfast in support of venezuela, while murka keeps on seizing assets. I've
seen numbers from $30 billion up to $120 billion for the value of venezuelan property stolen by murka.

Shall I go on? Does any one really care about south america? Y'all may have noticed todays surprise headline from brazil. The minister for justice just resigned siting political pressure from preznit Bolsanaro. This comes just days after the minister for health resigned because are fore mentioned Bolsanoro refuses to take the corona virus seriously.

Truly do feel sorrow for brazilians.

Posted by: Miss Lacy | Apr 25 2020 0:03 utc | 95

Illinois Director of Public Health Let's Cat out of the Bag- COVID Deaths Are Overstated

Here is the exact quote from the director of Illinois Department of Health, Dr. Ngozi Ezike, transcribed from Illinois Governor's health briefing on April 19th :

[i]"I just want to be clear in terms of the definition of people dying of COVID. The case definition is very simplistic. It means at the time of death it was a COVID positive diagnosis. So that means if you were in hospice and had already been given a few weeks to live, and then you also were found to have COVID, that would be counted as a COVID death. It means technically even if you died of a clear alternate cause, but you had COVID at the same time, it's still listed as a COVID death. So, everyone who's listed as a COVID death doesn't mean that that was the cause of the death, but they had COVID at the time of the death."[/i]

During Gov. JB Pritzker's health briefing on Sunday, Dr. Ngozi Ezike, the Illinois Department of Public Health director, said anyone who had COVID-19 at the time of death, even if the person died of other causes, is counted among the COVID deaths.

In fact, even if a person is in hospice for other reasons but has COVID, too, that death is still counted among the COVID deaths, Ezike said.

https://www.theherald-news.com/2020/04/21/what-counts-as-a-covid-19-death/a38v0ed/

Posted by: Allen | Apr 25 2020 0:07 utc | 96

jadan @ 98 said, in part;"Today the elite owners of everything control the election process so that the nations most undemocratic ignoramus oligarch landlord sits on his White House throne arrogantly attempting to destroy the last remnants of a government by and for the people (the post office) and insulting journalists who dare to question his egregiously stupid pronouncements or his glaring incompetence. The dream of unalienable rights of the individual has produced a ruling elite of sociopathic billionaires & millionaires."

Undeniably obvious, good rant...

Posted by: ben | Apr 25 2020 0:13 utc | 97

“I feel a desperate sadness,” said Timothy Garton Ash, a professor of European history at Oxford University and a lifelong and ardent Atlanticist.

Actually the author, Katrin Bennhold, is around four years out of date there. Garton Ash used to be very Atlanticist - he was a visiting professor in Stanford, and very pro-Bush/Iraq. But he isn't any more. The Brexit referendum in 2016 turned him into a campaigner for remaining in the EU. He writes about it endlessly. He understood where Britain's real interests lay, and I think the change was genuine. The conspiracy theorists will say he was sent as an agent to preserve Britain's status as the US representative in the EU, but Trump doesn't care about that, and it must be a very deep state in the US that is trying to keep UK in the EU, so deep as to be non-existent.

The point, of course, is that Bennhold, in order to prove her case that Europeans regret the disappearance of US leadership, can only call on a witness who no longer thinks that.

Posted by: Laguerre | Apr 25 2020 0:15 utc | 98

30
"Why German war machine collapsed in east? Because 83% of Jagdwaffe from late 1943 was NOT in east."

What a loss to humanity that you were not around in late 1943. Had Germans in 1943 noticed that particular misallocation problem and perhaps followed your advice, they could have easily won the war. What a shame.

Posted by: kare | Apr 25 2020 0:24 utc | 99

It seems pointless to masturbate ourselves with a hypothetical death rates. The question is, what is the maximum number of new cases with complications that any particular health system can cope with, without breaking down. In many countries we are somewhat close to that breaking point, especially as ever larger percentage of medical staff gets infected.

Posted by: kare | Apr 25 2020 0:36 utc | 100

next page »

The comments to this entry are closed.