China Did Not Deceive Us – Counting Death During An Epidemic Is Really Difficult

April 1, 2020

The anti-China campaign, which the Deputy National Security Advisor Matthew Pottinger is running, presented its April fools joke. It leaked to Bloomberg that a secret U.S. Intelligence Report claims that China concealed the real numbers of its Covid-19 cases:

China has concealed the extent of the coronavirus outbreak in its country, under-reporting both total cases and deaths it’s suffered from the disease, the U.S. intelligence community concluded in a classified report to the White House, according to three U.S. officials.
…
While China eventually imposed a strict lockdown beyond those of less autocratic nations, there has been considerable skepticism of China’s reported numbers, both outside and within the country. The Chinese government has repeatedly revised its methodology for counting cases, for weeks excluding people without symptoms entirely, and only on Tuesday added more than 1,500 asymptomatic cases to its total.

Stacks of thousands of urns outside funeral homes in Hubei province have driven public doubt in Beijing’s reporting.

China did not conceal its number of Covid-19 cases. Nor did it hold back any information.

Reporting numbers during an outbreak of a new disease is actually very difficult.

When does one start to count? China only knew that it had a new virus epidemic in early January. By then those who died during the month before were already cremated. How could it count them?

Does one include co-morbids or not in the count? What about casualties of a car accident that also test positive for Covid-19 when they die? What about those who died with Covid-19 symptoms but could not be tested for lack of test kits? Are the tests really working reliably? At one point China included all pneumonia cases in the Covid-19 case count even after they tested negative for Covid-19. The Chinese epidemiologists thought that their test had been wrong and only later found out that that was not the case.

What about asymptomatic cases that test positive. Are these false positives or do these people really have the virus? One can only know that by testing them a month later for antibodies. If they developed antibody cells against the virus they must have had it. That may well be the reason why China only now added the 1.500 asymptomatic cases to its total count.

The most important number during an outbreak is the one that lets one plan for resources and model for countermeasures. That number is the Case Fatality Rate.

bigger

But that is the wrong number if one asks how likely one is to die of the disease:

You may have heard a term being used: the “case fatality rate”, or CFR. That is the number of deaths divided by the number of confirmed cases. When journalists talk about the “death rate”, that’s often what they are referring to. If a country has 10,000 confirmed cases and 100 deaths, then the CFR in that country is (100/10,000), or 1%.

That is not what we are looking for, and it is probably not even very close to what we are looking for.

Instead what we want is the “infection fatality rate”, or IFR. That is the number of deaths divided by the number of people who actually have the disease. The number of people who have tested positive for the disease is probably only a fraction of the total number who had it, because only a fraction of the population has actually been tested.

Obviously, the IFR is much harder to determine accurately. The only people getting tested will be the people who are most ill, so your IFR is probably much lower than your CFR, because your denominator — the number you’re dividing by — is probably much bigger.

So if your country has tested absolutely everyone and found all cases of the disease, then your IFR is the same as your CFR, or 1%. But if it has only found 10% of the people with the disease, then your 10,000 confirmed cases are just the tip of a 100,000-person iceberg. With those 100 deaths, your IFR would be (100/100,000) or 0.1%.

China, and everyone who followed its data, knew that the number of cases were different from the number of infections. But we did not know by how much. It was also clear that China was not counting all Covid-19 death. Italy shows how that problem arises:

As hospitals become overcrowded, patients are being asked to stay at home until they display the most serious symptoms. Many will die in their houses or nursing homes and may not even be counted as Covid-19 cases unless they’re tested post-mortem.

Last week, two researchers from northern Italy made this point forcefully when looking at Nembro, a small town near Bergamo that has been very severely hit by the outbreak. Writing in Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera they found there had been 158 deaths in the town in 2020 so far, as opposed to 35 on average in the previous five years. They noted that Nembro had only counted 31 deaths from Covid-19, which looks like an underestimate.

In other towns nearby, including Bergamo itself, the trend seemed identical. The researchers made the point that the only reliable indicator in the end will be “excess deaths” — namely, how many more people have died in total compared to a “normal” year.

Death per month in Bergamo over the last ten years*

*The data refer to deaths until March 26th
Source – bigger

The UK produces two different numbers. The Office for National Statistics says that it counts more Covid-19 death than the official GOV.UK site by the Department of Health and Social Care:

We include all deaths where COVID-19 was mentioned on the death certificate, even if only suspected: the GOV.UK figures are only those deaths where the patient had a positive test result

We include deaths that happened anywhere in England and Wales, for example some might be in care homes: the GOV.UK figures are only those that happened in hospital.

The definition who to count can change over time and not only in China:

[C]ountries may have good reasons to change the way they collect data as circumstances change, but it apparently happens often enough that the World Health Organisation feels that they have to ask countries to notify them when they do it. Famously, China did so earlier in the epidemic, but others do too: in complying with the WHO’s request, Australia has noted that it has changed its definition of a Covid-19 “case” (and therefore a Covid-19 “death”) at least 12 times since 23 January.

As for the number of urns delivered to funeral homes in Hubei after the quarantine was lifted one has also to consider the number of regular death. Hubei province has some sixty million inhabitants. The regular mortality rate in China is 726 per 100.000 inhabitants per year. The regular expected number of death from January 1 to March 31 in Hubei province without the epidemic was 108.900. In Wuhan, which has 14 million inhabitants, the expected number was 25.410. Photos that show the delivery of a few thousands of urns to large funeral homes in Wuhan are thereby not a sign for a higher Covid-19 death rate. To claim such is propaganda nonsense.

There is no reason to criticize China for publishing incomplete and a times confusing numbers. That is normal during any epidemic and the U.S. will certainly do likewise. The real problem with the various numbers flowing around lies elsewhere.

People do try to make predictions about how many will get infected and die from the virus. These models are needed to prepare ones resources. But prediction is extremely difficult to do as the various models are very sensitive to the input data. A model that works in country A may give the wrong results when it is used for country B. Cities and towns are different. Local circumstances can make huge differences. With the real infection numbers and the real death rate unknown during an outbreak we can only hope that our epidemiologists, who are trained to make and interpret such models, get it right.

To claim that China deceived the U.S. and the world about its numbers or that China tried to make it look as if the epidemic was not as serious as it is makes no sense at all.

China took extreme and drastic measures at high economic costs to prevent a larger outbreak. It did not do that to deceive anyone but because it saw the seriousness of the problem. It acted in the global interest and to defeat the virus.

China gave the world time to prepare for the pandemic. Unfortunately that time was not used well. One reason that the U.S. will now experience a very large outbreak is that it is not willing to follow China’s example. If one declares that gun shops and shooting ranges are critical businesses that must stay open during a lockdown one is not serious about fighting the epidemic.

To blame China for that is simply nonsensical.

The real number of casualties the SARS-CoV-19 outbreak will cause will only be known when it is over and when we compare the new death statistics to those of previous years. One thing is assured. The “excess death” numbers will be lower in those countries that did use the time China gave them and prepared for what was coming at them.

—
Previous Moon of Alabama posts on the issue:

The Coronavirus – No Need To Panic – Jan 25 2020
Novel Coronavirus Defies Conspiracy Theories As Data Shows Its Coming Decline – Feb 1 2020
The Epidemic Recedes – Number Of New Coronavirus Cases In Decline – Feb 8 2020
Coronavirus – Statistical Change Causes Confusion – New Case Count Continues To Decline – Feb 13 2020
Coronavirus – The Decline Of New Cases Continues – Economic Ripples Begin To Emerge – Feb 21 2020
As Virus Spreads Over The Planet Governments Are Slow To React – Feb 27 2020
Coronavirus – Its Time To Press Your Government To React Faster – Feb 29 2020
Coronavirus – Bad Preparation And Propaganda Increase The Onsetting Panic – Mar 6 2020
Why Is The Coronavirus More Dangerous Than The Flu? – Mar 9 2020
Coronavirus – The Hidden Cases – Why We Must Shut Everything Down And Do It Now – Mar 11 2020
News-Nugget About The Coronavirus Pandemic – Mar 13 2020
The Pandemic Will Cause A Global Depression – We Need Demand Side Measures To Counter It – Mar 16 2020
Coronavirus – A Lockdown Is Not Enough – Mar 17 2020
False Claims About The Novel Coronavirus And How To Debunk Them – Mar 19 2020
Congress Grifters Profit From Crisis – Mar 20 2020
Coronavirus – On Western Government Failures And Possible Therapies – Mar 21 2020
Coronavirus – How To Lift Lockdowns And Why We Should All Wear Masks – Mar 23 2020
More Bits On The Corona Crisis – Mar 26 2020
U.S. Virus Cases Are Off The Scale – But Its People Can Build A Movement From This – Mar 31 2020
China Did Not Deceive Us – Counting Death During An Epidemic Is Really Difficult– Apr 1 2020

Posted by b on April 1, 2020 at 18:45 UTC | Permalink

Comments

With over 900 overseas bases, who is the country that seems to threaten all others with global hegemony? The answer should be obvious..
Posted by: ben | Apr 2 2020 0:09 utc | 95
A “base” can be an office for few people. But I thought a bit about consequences. Chinese claimed that only USA had the presence of all haplotype groups of the new virus. Explanation: RNA viruses mutate quickly, so sequence data shows many differences, and the sequences are grouped into “haplotypes”. The conclusion, which was somewhat malicious, was that the largest variety indicates the country of origin. They do not like the talk of “Chinese virus”. However, USA is very busy collecting the viruses from at least 140 countries. Of course it is not just the military, diplomatic corps, intelligence, (quasi)NGO, but also businesses and tourists, but the hyperactivity of the government assures contact with bugs everywhere, business and tourism is a bit more selective.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Apr 2 2020 13:45 utc | 201

@bandindunito | 191
Totally with you there buddy..
@ Richard Steven Hack | 192
It is basic probability. If you making the claim that the virus jumped from animal host to human naturally (i.e. natural cause) then you have to agree that such a possibility is present everywhere in equal degree. You might make an adjustment to this by saying that a natural jump is dependent not on the area (ie 2x the area then 2x the chances of a jump) but on population i.e. any two regions in China that have the same populations have the same odds of having a new virus created through a jump from animals to humans. You can modify this model by looking at population density, intensity of animal-human interaction and so forth.
So, correlating the area with the odds of a natural jump is a simplification but even if you stretch the model and include all other factors, you will find that the odds of a natural jump of the virus in the immediate vicinity of a very rare (only one in the country) BSL4 (the highest standard of danger/safety) lab are vanishingly low.
If you calculate by area, the odds are 0.01% as I noted above. If you include all other modifications you can probably raise that to 0.1-0.3% – not much more than that.
So, if you do believe in the circumstantial natural jump of the virus from animals to humans in the immediate vicinity of a lab that was doing work on viruses, you believe in something with odds of 1 in 1000 or 1 in 10,000. Up to you if you want to believe in such coincidences, I do not! I have put the facts in front of people to decide – if they want to go ahead and believe in a 0.01% probability event, it’s entirely up to them.
@ William Gruff | 193
I am not denying the possibility of the Americans releasing the virus very near the Wuhan BSL4 lab in order to deflect attention (and blame). The neocon crazies have done similar things before (Gulf of Tonkien anyone) and I don’t put it past them to try this.
In any case, my point is to show that a natural occurrence of the virus is a very improbable event. Either the Chinese lost control of the virus in their lab (which I believe is more likely) or the Americans seeded the Wuhan wet market. In any case, looking at the level of American preparedness, option 1 looks more likely.

Posted by: ancientarcher | Apr 2 2020 13:50 utc | 202

@Peter AU1 #112
No, the FDA did not “approve” hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine phosphate for treatment of COVID-19.
What they did is they have not disallowed it.
This is nothing more than a publicity stunt – doctors in the US can already prescribe hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine phosphate for off-label use, which includes rheumatoid arthritis. I got my mother to get a prescription from her doctor 2 weeks ago, for example.
Read the text carefully: “approved” means something very different than “not unsafe to use”, which is what an emergency limitation authorization means.

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 2 2020 13:50 utc | 203

@195 Vi Yiyo
There is an excellent video on ACEI and ARB in relation to the ACE-2 receptors and COVID-19 on the MedCram channel.

Posted by: TJ | Apr 2 2020 13:56 utc | 204

@atomician #132
There are many variables – including amount of testing, classification of mortality cause, stage of epidemiological outbreak, etc.
However, a big one is relative size of population.
That’s why I’ve been publishing daily CCD/DSU numbers which extrapolate number of nCOV cases based on an nCOV epidemiological progression of 200 infected = 100 symptomatic = 20 serious = 10 critical = 1-2 ICU, of which 25% to 50% die.
I also include %population infected by various calculations, by published numbers, and by 10M population equivalents.
Willis Eschenbach at Wattsupwiththat.com is publishing daily log scale charts which are aimed at showing nCOV trajectory – what is interesting is that the trajectories for the US and Europe aren’t significantly different despite very different responses. The only countries that are different are Hong Kong, China, Singapore, South Korea, Japan and Taiwan…

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 2 2020 13:58 utc | 205

> To me, [not testing,] that is the greatest failure of our western governments.
>Posted by: atomician | Apr 2 2020 8:19 utc | 147
We know from the public record that CDC specifically ordered people not to test. Not testing was a deliberate policy decision. Who made that decision and why?

Posted by: Trailer Trash | Apr 2 2020 14:01 utc | 206

In any case, my point is to show that a natural occurrence of the virus is a very improbable event.
Posted by: ancientarcher | Apr 2 2020 13:50 utc | 203
Given that viruses are present in all vertebrate species, cross from species to species, and you have trillions of mutating bugs, talking about probabilities is pointless. For example, the most bizarre proteins are from viruses. Last year China lost something like 40% of their pigs to a viral epidemic. Developing viruses and other bugs as economic weapons could make sense, but there are just to many natural occurrences to bother (at least I hope so). Actually, the bungling of the latest swine epidemic in China was on an epic scale, other affected countries suffered much smaller losses (say, Russia), and that could contribute to a much more proactive attitude in respect to COVID-19. Presumably, China had an energetic investigation what went wrong and acted on conclusion.
USA had an investigation of what could go wrong in the case of “viral pandemic originating in China”, and the conclusions were languidly ignored. And early this year, doesn’t USA spend tens of billions on intelligence? As we know, on information gathering stage, these agencies are pretty good. Then it goes to the next level: indisputable evidence of a new epidemic in China, vague clues and rumors about Russian interference. What to do? To paraphrase Pinky and the Brain, “we do what we always do!”.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Apr 2 2020 14:08 utc | 207

@willie #183
The US response has actually been very good overall – as a function absolute population. This is despite New York having very poor outcomes, with neighboring New Jersey also having poor outcomes.
Michigan is now bad as well – less clear why that is so.
California is very little affected – this is despite very heavy testing in US terms. The worst affected county in the Bay Area isn’t the big city of SF, but the suburb of Santa Clara which holds Google, Facebook and Yahoo.
LA county is also serious affected but that is a 10 million person county – which is 50% bigger than the entire Bay Area population all by itself.
Willis Eschenbach at wattsupwiththat.com has shown that the various lockdown measures don’t seem to make any different in nCOV trajectory. His argument is that extreme tracking and enforced quarantines for those known or possible infected by nCOV works – the rest is just theater.
It is true that China has had the best results with both lockdown and ultra extreme tracking, but South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore have done well with merely extreme tracking and no lockdowns.
I’ve said before that the US and Europe were experimenting in that they were only locking down and not doing the tracking/quarantining – we’ll find out really soon (2 weeks) how much of a mistake this was or was not.
Ironically, Sweden has elected to not lock down, so we will have another data point there.
And lastly, Trump has politically positioned himself well: the lockdowns were ordered by the state governors – largely in blue states like New York and California. The economic damage from the lockdowns is enormous and growing; California just extended its lockdown a full month to May.
10M restaurant workers already laid off; tourism/travel industry has entirely halted – fancy hotels in SF are contracting with the City of SF government to put up homeless people with the California state government “looking at 901 hotels” to do the same.
Interesting times.

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 2 2020 14:09 utc | 208

@Richard Steven Hack #192
No, the Wuhan Seafood Market theory is dead as a doornail.
Half of the first 46 confirmed nCOV victims never came anywhere close to the Wuhan Seafood market or anyone that was infected.
I noted this at least 2 months ago.
The one person who got nCOV and infected the ones who did go to Wuhan Seafood market was simply a super-spreader, but someone or several someones else was patient zero and a super spreader.

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 2 2020 14:13 utc | 209

You’re a Chinese apologist. Thanks for sharing your views.

Posted by: Petedivine | Apr 2 2020 14:14 utc | 210

Exclusive: The Military Knew Years Ago That a Coronavirus Was Coming

The Pentagon warned the White House about a shortage of ventilators, face masks, and hospital beds in 2017—but the Trump administration did nothing.
Despite President Trump’s repeated assertions that the Covid-19 epidemic was “unforeseen” and “came out of nowhere,” the Pentagon was well aware of not just the threat of a novel influenza, but even anticipated the consequent scarcity of ventilators, face masks, and hospital beds, according to a 2017 Pentagon plan obtained by The Nation.
“The most likely and significant threat is a novel respiratory disease, particularly a novel influenza disease,” the military plan states. Covid-19 is a respiratory disease caused by the novel (meaning new to humans) coronavirus. The document specifically references coronavirus on several occasions, in one instant saying, “Coronavirus infections [are] common around the world.”

Posted by: vk | Apr 2 2020 14:18 utc | 211

@ancientarcher #203
You said:

It is basic probability. If you making the claim that the virus jumped from animal host to human naturally (i.e. natural cause) then you have to agree that such a possibility is present everywhere in equal degree.

This is over-simplification to a degree which destroys any possible discussion.
I strongly recommend you look up Rob Wallace and read what he is saying.
In particular, he notes that industrial farming is what pushed small farmers in China to go “wild”.
Culturally, while pangolin scales for example are a Chinese Traditional Medicine ingredient, “wild” animal consumption is for the wealthy – the Chinese equivalent of organic food.
And both “wild” animal consumption in China and organic food sales in the US/Europe are a response to industrial farming.
But consumption of wild animals isn’t unique to China. How many wild ducks, elk, deer, moose etc are eaten in the US every year? Supposedly there are 40 million hunters and fishermen…

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 2 2020 14:23 utc | 212

BCG vaccine theorized to protect against novel coronavirus
This isn’t a very strong theory – India is very young, demographically, so far from clear that BCG is the reason for lower nCOV issues so far.
I’ve already talked about malaria countries also showing low nCOV impact – these are also very young (all of Africa averages 19.4 age).
There also needs to be a supportable cause. For malaria countries, it is possible widespread use of chloroquine/hydroxychloroquine, but I’ve seen no data supporting the fact that it is (or is not) widely used.
For BCG – one theory is that for nCOV infections, the 2nd stage (viral and bacterial pneumonia) – it is the BCG bacteria that are the primary secondary cause so the BCG vaccine stops that.
Not entirely convincing since antibiotics would also do the same thing, but worth watching.

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 2 2020 14:28 utc | 213

Posted by: vk | Apr 2 2020 14:18 utc | 212
Interesting, 2017 !!!

Trump warned about inevitable infectious disease outbreak
Infectious Disease News, February 2017
Anthony S. Fauci, MD, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said there is “no doubt” President Donald J. Trump will be confronted with a surprise infectious disease outbreak during his term.
Anthony S. Fauci
Fauci has led the NIAID for more than 3 decades, advising the past five United States presidents on global health threats from the early days of the AIDS epidemic in the 1980s through to the current Zika virus outbreak.

link

Posted by: Tom_LX | Apr 2 2020 14:36 utc | 214

“…looking at the level of American preparedness, option 1 looks more likely.”
This is only assuming the American attack scenario to be US military operation, which obviously it was not. To get a better idea of how the attack was carried out think of it being done by a very large organized crime network with tentacles throughout a number of western governments and much of the business community. A very large organized crime network in which the right hand rarely knows what the left is doing… for deniability, doncha`know?
Would such an criminal organization be in a position (or even care) to prepare the home populations for the possibility of the virus making it back home? Not at all.
Did the criminal organization develop the virus themselves? Of course not. They just “borrowed” it from Ft. Detrick like they always do.
What is the purpose of the bio attack? To utterly destroy China? No, it was just to “give them a cold”. To knock China back and let America win the trade war. When the criminal organization had its agents pawing through flasks of contagious crud at Ft. Detrick, they were not looking for the perfect killing bug, but rather just one that would be good enough while not being too good.
Would the criminal organization expect the virus contagion to go global? Of course not. China was able to contain the first SARS outbreak, and this one was only a little more potent. The criminal organization likely was more worried that the outbreak they were causing wouldn’t be big enough to cripple China’s economy for long enough for America to take a commanding economic lead. They never expected it to go far beyond China’s borders.
What is this criminal organization I speak of?
“We lie, we cheat, we steal [sotto voce] and we murder and we torture and we assassinate” –M Pompeo
You know who did it, and the only accident about it was that the contagion went beyond China.

Posted by: William Gruff | Apr 2 2020 14:39 utc | 215

The euromomo site (tracking european mortality since 2008, 31 state and academic institutions) has had some data removed or modified. Italy data have disappeared, graphs tracking excess mortality have now two different color coded lines, for some countries, no explanation given, and color-coded maps have been modified for the prior 3 weeks (again, for Italy but also for Spain).
CV enthusiasts should ask themselves, if the epidemic is so strong, why the data removal. For Italy at least it is clear, the number of CV deaths in the media and government sites exceeds by one order of magnitude the excess deaths calculated from said site.

Posted by: anony | Apr 2 2020 14:49 utc | 216

@ William Gruff 216
Thanks, what you say seems very plausible indeed. The desperate attempts to blame China gives it away, these people always project their own sins onto others.

Posted by: Norwegian | Apr 2 2020 14:55 utc | 217

IFR or CFR they are both only about how many infected that the hospital was not able to save. There are several reasons that that happens and the death rate is highest when the hospitalization of those needing it exceeds the capacity of the hospital.
What would the IFR be without hospitalization? What would the CFR be if every case had the full ICU capabilities and up to date meds?

Posted by: jef | Apr 2 2020 14:58 utc | 218

More Zoom fun:
I already noted that Zoom might be spying on your conversation for ad purposes.
It was then reported that Zoom end to end encryption, isn’t.
Now here’s a really thorough breakdown on all the bad things Zoom does when it gets installed on your system: The ‘S’ in Zoom, Stands for Security
Net net: Zoom increases its customer’s cyber attack surface enormously, presumably for better user experience.

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 2 2020 15:03 utc | 219

Regarding the egregious lack of testing in “the West”, which still continues today, I would wager until some better evidence comes along that the reason for it is that the political classes are scared shitless of what they might find. Blame shifting, obscurantism, and stalling are pretty much instinctive with all of them, and the last thing they want to have to deal with is “facts” they cannot control, and it is already quite obvious that they dropped the ball.

Posted by: Bemildred | Apr 2 2020 15:04 utc | 220

ancientarcher #169
Two things can share a relationship without one being the cause of the other. As in: (1) Lab in Wuhan does research in viruses and vaccines. (2) First reported cases of c19 were in Wuhan. As you would learn in any basic course in statistics, correlation doesn’t imply causation. Yet you invent probabilities of (1) being the cause of (2). Your conclusion is invalid and makes no sense. Until/if solid evidence of the origin of SARS-CoV-19 is discovered and reported the only factual conclusion one can draw at this point is the virus originated in a lab or evolved in nature, with equal probability of either.

Posted by: krypton | Apr 2 2020 15:05 utc | 221

Every I think the american have reach the limits of ignominious, I realize that they has reached beyond

Posted by: fayez chergui | Apr 2 2020 15:06 utc | 222

@ Richard Steven Hack 189
I repeat my point that you say is not relevant:
“You are obviously not aware that the curves in Germany have strongly flattened over the last week, and there will most probably not one triage decision (who may survive) be necessary. Enough beds there.”
The fact that there are enough beds guarantees that, as you demand, “no old person or a young child (or anyone in between) with respiratory problems dies due to inadequate handling of the crisis.” Everyone will get a bed and a treatment – and this is not relevant for you?
To make it clear: The purpose of the shutdown must not be minimizing the number of deaths in toto caused by COVID-19 over the year. With this argument you have also to shut down car traffic. Everybody knows it causes a few thousands deaths per year, but it is generally accepted because it is being viewed indispensable for our way of life. The same goes for other diseases like flu which charges regularly thousands of deaths per year.
The purpose of the shutdown is to prevent a breakdown of the health system and to provide every Corona-sick person with the treatment he/she needs. Triage decisions have to be avoided.
The shutdown not only hurts the economy (and the beaux arts), by the way, it also violates precious basic rights like moving around freely. A shutdown can certainly be justified if a truely deadly desease threatens to destroy the society, and if it promises to be effective. The last premise is, according do Prof. Streeck, not fulfilled. This doesn’t mean that he doesn’t suggest countermeasures, like closing schools and mass events. The infection chains have to be broken, but where there are no infection chains, you can’t break them.

Posted by: mk | Apr 2 2020 15:07 utc | 223

I would like to know what assurances b has for China’s motivations and internal decision making process. B seems to forget their own distrust of the impact of the pandemic while ascribing ulterior motives to everyone else. If B has inside sources in the Chinese or American leadership then I think it is time they say that. Otherwise they are claiming expertise where none exits. Yes, it’s reasonable to conclude motivations from one actions and I would say that B in the past has been balanced in their assessment by providing proper context but that seems to be lacking in recent articles especially regarding covid19. It’s going to turn into a black eye when its revealed that China (like most western countries) “massaged” their daat to present a rosier picture than actually existed. B should consider the cultural concept of “Face” or face-saving and its impact on Asian societies. It’s at least as influential as election season on American politicians. I would also suggest B look into the pandemic modeling done by elite western institutions which give the US an A+. Its most likely that US response was tailored to that exercise and included readiness “exaggerations” by our corporate overlords on stockpiles and capability that was possibly instrumental on our poor response.

Posted by: ponderer | Apr 2 2020 15:07 utc | 224

to A.L. 150 – I, too, bow right down to the way you absolutely nailed it. THANK YOU

Posted by: Phryne’s frock | Apr 2 2020 15:16 utc | 225

CASE FATALLITY RATE IN FINLAND ABOUT 5%
Today’s case numbers confirm, the number of new cases in Finland is going down! The number of new cases has been stabile for over two weeks. This makes it possible to estimate the case fatality number.
It takes on average 17.8 days from first symptoms to death, a few more days to be tested and and a day or two before the results are reported. The total number of cases that were tested positive by March 18th is 424. There are now 19 deaths. This would give a CFR of 4.48%.
There are now 65 patients in intensive care, out of a total 160 hospitalized. It has been estimated by a Finnish doctor that half of those in ICU eventually die. I expect an equal number of those that are now diagnosed to end up in ICU. This would mean that 65 + 19 = 84 of the total 1,518 would eventually die. This makes 5.53%. The two figures combined makes me believe that the current case fatality rate in Finland with the current treatment is 5%. Better treatment and earlier treatment might bring the number down.
The Finnish cases are slightly skewed toward the older age groups. As the number of new cases has not been growing, I do not believe there is a large number of asymptotic or untested carriers around, at least among those infection dates that effect this calculation. I expect the tested positive cases to represent 50% to 70% of the total number of infections. That would put the infection fatality rate at 2.5 to 3%.
If 70% of the population is infected, then about 2% of the population would die. Early medication with chloroquine might bring down the death toll.
I consider the Finnish numbers to be very good. The situation in the United States is far worse.

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Apr 2 2020 15:19 utc | 226

atomician @ 132
Thank you so much for your extensive roundup of statistics, along with your placing them in local contexts (e.g., 1/3 of Bergamo attended a soccer match and partied). Its about as complete and clear a summary of ground truth that I have seen. The range of infection and illness rates speaks for itself.

The Case Fatality Rate (CFR = Number of deaths/Number of confirmed cases) is 11% of in Italy, 7% in Spain, 4.7% globally, 1.7% in South Korea, 1% on the Diamond Princess, 0.06% in Germany, 0.06% in Iceland and 0% in the city of Vo in Italy. What’s going on?

If, in the future, I feel the need to comment on postings of useless projections and hysterical declarations of doom, unsupported by hard evidence, I will point them to your comment. You have pretty much made the case that the jury is still out, which has been my position all along. Nevertheless, the lynch mob is still outside ready to hang anyone who is unwilling to abandon critical thinking and surrender to the “be afraid” bombardment.
c1ue @ 206
You have made quite a commitment to tracking the numbers. Thanks for your ongoing effort. Let me reference your latest:

That’s why I’ve been publishing daily CCD/DSU numbers which extrapolate number of nCOV cases based on an nCOV epidemiological progression of 200 infected = 100 symptomatic = 20 serious = 10 critical = 1-2 ICU, of which 25% to 50% die.

Posted by: john brewster | Apr 2 2020 15:23 utc | 227

TEAR DOWN THE GATES!
Who will save us from this tyranny? Only we can deliver ourselves. The spineless need not muster.

Posted by: Cap’n Klonk | Apr 2 2020 15:24 utc | 228

thanks b for keeping the fear alive
any tips how did the gernans survive the rhineland open air camps set up by thw zios in france,uk and usa maybe we can learn some strategy to survive this novel story virus

Posted by: jack stephens | Apr 2 2020 15:30 utc | 229

karlof, building “respect for all classes” = endorsement for keeping human thinking inside the status quo anti-egalitarian anti-just-reward-for-work pyramid = continuation in perpetuity of the fantastical notion that overpayunderpay overpowerunderpower is someday some way going to work to human advantage rather than get us all killed = epic failure = LACK of goodness. Doing some small part of justice = doing NOT JUSTICE. There is NO *reason* for humans to stack themselves into a pyramid of ‘classes’. It is an obsolete, unworkable, selfharming, autogenocidal, genosadistic dystem (dysfunctional system). Yah I know – nobody here is interested in striking the root.

Posted by: Phryne’s frock | Apr 2 2020 15:34 utc | 230

I’m psychic: I predict that, as unemployment rates grow in the USA, so will grow the ratio of commenters here who will double down on the “media paranoia”, “it’s just a flu”, “the economic damage are greater than the cost of the number of dead” narrative. Desperation is a companion to irrationality.
6.6 million more, 10 million total. I believe that the American working class will crack before the end of April.

Posted by: vk | Apr 2 2020 15:41 utc | 231

Petri Krohn @ 227
Thank you for your statistics, which I have no quarrel with. However, you then proceed to make assumption after assumption to support your predetermined conclusion:

It has been estimated by a Finnish doctor that half of those in ICU eventually die. I expect an equal number of those that are now diagnosed to end up in ICU.
I do not believe there is a large number of asymptotic or untested carriers around,
I expect the tested positive cases to represent 50% to 70% of the total number of infections.
And the cherry on the sundae of this self-spun confection is:
If 70% of the population is infected, then about 2% of the population would die

Infections estimates are all over the place. There is no sound methodology, no reliable test for asymptomatic infected people. 70% is an extremely high estimate, as well. Basically you just pulled this number out of thin air.
Also, Finland is yet another unique place. A very small and homogeneous population with a lot of old folks.

The Finnish population in Northern Europe has been a target of extensive genetic studies during the last decades. The population is considered as a homogeneous isolate, well suited for gene mapping studies because of its reduced diversity and homogeneity.
Genetic markers and population history: Finland revisited

At this point in time, who could possibly say what that homogeneity does to the disease statistics? But you just blithely ignore that massive lack of evidence and plow on to your conclusion.
—-
You can believe what you want. You can post unsubstantiated panic-mongering extrapolations too. But I wish you would just stop. Please, please, pay attention to all the statistics out there

Posted by: john brewster | Apr 2 2020 15:45 utc | 232

>How many wild ducks, elk, deer, moose etc are eaten in the US every year?
But, but *our* wildlife is also exceptional and never have icky parasites or diseases like rabies, ticks, brainworms, bat fungus, etc. It’s only the critters that US rednecks don’t like to eat that have diseases. That should be obvious to any red-blooded patriotic US peon…

Posted by: Trailer Trash | Apr 2 2020 16:00 utc | 233

@ krypton | 222
Correlation not causation. Sure.. except that if it is just random correlation (with no causation) the chances of the epicentre of the epidemic being so near the the BSL4 lab is 0.01% – 0.3%. Take your pick.
If you think it is just correlation you are comfortable in believing something which has a probability of occurence of 0.01%. I am not!
@ Piotr Berman | 208
The theory of farmers being pushed towards the wild (areas and animals) is good. But as far as I know Wuhan isn’t in the middle of wild China country. What does that have to do with my question – why was the epicentre so close to the BSL4 lab in Wuhan? The general theories explaining viruses, and swine flu etc don’t answer that question.
On the other hand, if you are one of those who spout “correlation isn’t causation” without any understanding of the underlying probabilities of each, believe in a 0.01% probability event. Be like the red queen. Be like b

Posted by: ancientarcher | Apr 2 2020 16:12 utc | 234

Petri Krohn @ 227
If you are Finnish, you should be aware of “Finnish heritage disease”.

A Finnish heritage disease is a genetic disease or disorder that is significantly more common in people whose ancestors were ethnic Finns…There are 36 rare diseases regarded as Finnish heritage diseases…The Finnish disease heritage does not extend to other ethnic groups in the region…
In Finland about one in five persons carries a gene defect associated with at least one Finnish heritage disease, and about one in 500 children born is affected.
– Wikipedia Finnish heritage disease

Since one of the few facts agreed upon about covid is that underlying/pre-existing conditions make the chance of severe illness much higher, maybe the fact that the Finns have this high rate of genetic diseases might have some bearing on the covid statistics.
Please note the qualifying words, maybe and might. I am not making any claims. I am merely stating that I have yet to see these factors included in any analysis of Finnish IFR or CFR.

Posted by: john brewster | Apr 2 2020 16:21 utc | 235

Scandinavia is famous for its diabetes and its moose.

Posted by: Tuyzentfloot | Apr 2 2020 16:23 utc | 236

@Bemildred #221
What constitutes “lack of testing” in your view?
Nobody else in the world, except perhaps Singapore, is doing the level of testing that South Korea is.
Germany and California are quite high, however, as a ratio to confirmed cases.
New York and the US in general has run more tests than any other nation by far in an absolute number level.

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 2 2020 16:29 utc | 237

Fear not, ye cowering masses. A Pirbright Future awaits!

Posted by: Cap’n Klonk | Apr 2 2020 16:30 utc | 238

Some people seem confused and are perhaps projecting their own local issues onto China. There is no encroachment on wilderness areas in China. On the contrary, due to dramatic urbanization, wilderness areas in China are growing.
That is correct. China has more forested areas now than they did 10 years ago. In fact, they have more forest now than they did a hundred years ago.
Current agricultural practices in China are more productive than prior ones, so less land area is devoted to food production. China has multi-millennia old farmlands that are reverting to wilderness.
Projecting these problems of destruction of habitats onto China is yet more evidence of unconscious (doubtless unintentional) racism.

Posted by: William Gruff | Apr 2 2020 16:33 utc | 239

@ancientarcher #235
Perhaps you can show the math on how you determined the chance of an epidemic epicenter being near a BSL4 lab is 0.01% to 0.03%?
Secondly, probability is only a statistical distribution.
Statistically, no one ever wins the Powerball lottery but in reality, someone always does.
If you really want to look at statistics, look at the number of new flu strains that have popped up in the last say, 20 years:
1) SARS-1
2) MERS
3) H7N9
4) other H7Nx variants
5) swine flu (H1N1)
1), 4) and 5) were from Asia.
1) and 5) were China.
2) is Middle East
3) is US/Europe
3), 4) and 5) were widespread – worldwide but 3) and 4) never jumped to humans – only killing a lot of chickens.

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 2 2020 16:39 utc | 240

AriusArmenian @23
“I remember ZeroHedge pushing the propaganda about the number of urns being delivered. ZH is running one China bashing article after another.”
Zerohedge has always been a swamp, but as of Covid19 it has ramped up the Sinophobia to levels that would make Alex Jones cringe.
The comment threads are filled with CIA trolls.

Posted by: linda Doucett | Apr 2 2020 16:42 utc | 241

Ten minute bioweapon scenario:
Start. The bad guys did it. The US are the bad guys and they did it to hurt China. But how did they know the impact of that virus upfront? Well, very advanced prediction of virus behaviour .Neural network. Do you know how hard it was to find out how lethal and contagious this virus was? Ok, maybe that’s a bit hard , maybe they just winged it. Right. But if you make it contagious it will get everywhere. Nah, they’ll contain it… ok , maybe not. They planned for it not to be contained. They want a pandemic. It just starts in China to make them look bad. Alright, we just pick one of the really bad US groups. They expect to benefit from the pandemic. Shock doctrine, get more power. Aren’t an awful lot of people with power going to be angry that this is going against their interests?. Yeah, but it’s a really tiny group. And they have access to the bioweapons as well pharma and surveillance shares. So very small group. Could be a few individuals. Or maybe they’re just so evil and stupid they thought it would all go the way they wanted it to go. so evil and stupid then? Yeah, they’re neocons. Aren’t the neocons more of the proselytizing type? . Yeah but they’re evil but we can get away with that. Or let’s pick CIA then.
CIA it is. And too stupid to look after their own interest. Like it?
No. It’s boring. But you may get the funding if you make them rogue elements and they are stopped by heroic CIA special agents.

Posted by: Tuyzentfloot | Apr 2 2020 16:44 utc | 242

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 2 2020 16:29 utc | 238
Just as a matter of curiosity, are you arguing that we are doing, and have done, plenty of testing?

Posted by: Bemildred | Apr 2 2020 16:48 utc | 243

Gruff, 240, there’s reforestation and there’s reforestation. If it’s anything like Poland, the China story would be a con. Poland claims to be more afforested than ever. This is particularly expressed when concerns are raised about the rapid plunder (gov-endorsed) of the Bialowieza Forest on the eastern, Belarus borderlands. (Last large relic of indigenous woodland in Europe.) But turns out that the statistics reflect monoculture conifer plantations, which indeed have been expanding enormously, providing pulp for Poland’s and Sweden’s substantial papermills. Devoid of the statitic, the wild forest is shrinking at the disheartening rate. Furthermore, every year now, Chinese under licence from Russia are plundering the Siberian forest in the Irkutsk region in massive clear-felling operations. The residents of this and other Siberian regions are deeply upset, but have no voice.
PS. Lest you think so, I am not anti-Chinese and agree with those who are doing their best correcting the distorted MSM reporting and casting of blame upon China.

Posted by: Cap’n Klonk | Apr 2 2020 17:00 utc | 244

Poland has become a hyper-capitalist land of scum. Comparing it with any country other than perhaps contemporary Brazil is insulting to the other country. Try checking the linked article before doing so again and note that primary forest in China is not being exploited.
China’s desert reclamation efforts in many areas do involve an initial stage of planting uniform fast-growing trees (poplars and tamarix), but this is just step one in a very long term planned process. A long term process that has been going on for decades now and thus in many areas has moved into later stages of reforestation beyond soil stabilization and moisture trapping, though you wouldn’t know that from reading the Wikipedia/CIA article on the project.

Posted by: William Gruff | Apr 2 2020 17:54 utc | 245

@ancientarcher #235
“If you think it is just correlation you are comfortable in believing something which has a probability of occurence of 0.01%. I am not!”
The probability of your own existence is way below 0.01: the probability that the exact sperm found the exact egg * the probability of your parents to known themselves * … ,etc unttill the beginning of the human race. This is a very very very small probability. I assume that you dont even belieive in your own existence!

Posted by: Cuban guy | Apr 2 2020 18:01 utc | 246

Gruff 240
Nice try shilling for your sect of ecocidal industrial capitalism, but .6 primary forest X .22 total forest, the rest being the monoculture tree plantations you no doubt prefer, = .132 total natural forest left in the entire country. Extremely damning for your position, from the point of view of any and all ecological criteria.

Posted by: Russ | Apr 2 2020 18:04 utc | 247

Russ @248
Really? And how does that compare with other countries? Try France, or Germany, or worse yet Britain.

Posted by: William Gruff | Apr 2 2020 18:17 utc | 248

@ 249
All are terrible. What’s your point?

Posted by: Russ | Apr 2 2020 18:27 utc | 249

I will say its pretty clear that China tried to suppress the early facts regarding the epidemic, Cernobyl style. We know about some early whistleblowers and how they were silenced . Once it was evident that the cat was out of the bag, the official tune changed..By then, thousand of infected Chinese seeded Italy, Iran and so on…An candid and early alarm with no flights out of China could have been the difference between a manageable problem and true pandemic.
A handful of East Asian countries, affected by SARS/MERS recently, had trained epidemiologic teams in place, with practiced plans ( yearly drills) of early detection and isolation, involving aggressive testing and separation of positives from their families.. that resulted in the low number of infected and dead without the need for total lockdown.
None of those plans were in place in the western world. That being said, it is evident that Europe and America did not recognize the gravity of the problem until South Korea like plans to detect and contain were not possible, due the the large viral burden, so the blame should be shared..
Also, the numbers from China do not make epidemiologic sense, especially the abrupt plunge to zero cases in an enormous country with double the population of America and Europe. I smell a rat, with the party ordering to show the world that China solved the problem… All the epidemiologic models are calling for a prolong tail after apex, for quite a bit of time…i believe that China has a smoldering epidemic now with unreported cases and folks dieing with “pneumonia’. Also, based on multiple sources, the real number of victim may be easy 10 times of the reported ones.

Posted by: hospital doc | Apr 2 2020 18:29 utc | 250

Every commentator positing China covered up is pushing Outlaw US Empire propaganda and is thus a Troll. The #1 cover up agent was/is “nothing to worry about; it’s just a hoax” Trump.

Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 2 2020 18:37 utc | 251

@ Posted by: hospital doc | Apr 2 2020 18:29 utc | 251
That’s not true for two simple reasons:
1) the COVID-19 has a long incubation period. So, by the time any hypothetical whistleblowers (one that wasn’t from December 30th, the other which appeared just one time in a Taiwanese tabloid claimed it “blew the whistle” at December 9th) could see any people infected – even if they could immediately identify it as the next pandemic (which they couldn’t) – then they would’ve already be 18 days too late. In 18 days, all those businessmen from the West had already come and gone from and to Wuhan three times;
2) the West probably begun to be infected by their businessmen (i.e. members of the capitalist class). UK’s patient zero, for example, was a multimillionaire businessman who got the virus in Singapore, then went to Austria to ski, where he begun to feel the symptoms and rushed back to his home country (UK). He landed on his private jet and went directly to an isolated room in the NHS, where he was successfully treated. Even in these very restricted environment (business meeting in Singapore, skiing in Austrie, isolated room at the NHS), he managed to infect 27 other people. Nobody did anything to stop him because he is a member of the dominant class in the West – the capitalist class. The capitalist governments in the West hesitated to end the international flights not because they were being blindsighted by China, but because they didn’t want to irritate their masters’ “freedom”.

Posted by: vk | Apr 2 2020 18:43 utc | 252

@Bemildred #244
I’m not arguing for or against – I was curious as to what you considered sufficient testing.
My own view is that the absolute numbers of tests don’t mean anything in and of itself.
What matters is the identification of known infected and at-risk infected.
Sure, if death numbers are high and test numbers are low, then clearly there isn’t enough testing – or more importantly, the medical investigation work that should be driving the testing.
But absolute numbers of tests – for example: I would argue that in the US, many of the tests run are “worthless” because the people being tested are neither at-risk or were exposed to anyone with nCOV. Testing right now (outside of New York) is a function of money and fear, not medical data.
Equally, South Korea has tested like crazy, but their outcomes are worse than China’s. Clearly there are limits to the medical benefits of testing as well to the medical investigation plus testing path, although South Korea’s 33 nCOV deaths per 10M pop is far better than anyone else except China (24 nCOV per 10M).
From a relative risk perspective, though, the US overall is at 157/10M – driven largely by New York’s 998/10M. California is 52/10M and has the most testing vs. confirmed case ratio outside of Germany and South Korea.

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 2 2020 18:45 utc | 253

The hospital “doc” troll should call itself “dog” – as in the last line from the Escobar piece linked by karlof1 earlier:

“The dogs of demonization bark while the Health Silk Road caravan passes.”
– China rolls out the Health Silk Road

Posted by: Grieved | Apr 2 2020 18:47 utc | 254

hospital doc @251
It was clear by last January that the virus could be a pandemic. Trump was minimizing the virus as latse as early March.
Trump hailed the “15-minute test” as a game-changer only a few days ago. AFAIK that still hasn’t been delivered in USA. USA is at least3 weeks behind Japan and at least 6-weeks behind China in availability of 15-minute testing.
USA and other Western countries have also been slow to accept hydoxyCloroquine as a remedy and precaution.
!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Apr 2 2020 18:51 utc | 255

Russ @250
My point is that China is doing pretty damn good for a country with 1.4 billion people that they are raising out of poverty. They are raising standards of living, improving nutrition, making tons of junk that people elsewhere in the world want to buy, and they are reforesting their country at the same time. No other country in the world has done anything like that.

Posted by: William Gruff | Apr 2 2020 18:54 utc | 256

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 2 2020 18:45 utc | 254
The purpose of testing is twofold:
1.) To understand as soon as possible the epidemiology of the disease, how fast it spreads, how it spreads, who has been infected, and how, and what became of them.
2.) To understand who needs treatment, who will need treatment, and who has recovered, died, etc. and the scope of the problem in the present.
In both cases, it’s a matter of having insight early into the problem you are facing. Early is important, because these things can get out of hand quickly, I don’t suppose I have to argue that now. B has actually gone into this fairly well. His error in the beginning was assuming that our ruling/technical elites were smart/educated enough to know it too.
Testing is/has-been sufficient if it is/has accomplished that, and continues to. I’m not an epidemiologist, but I’d find me one to answer the sort question you are asking.

Posted by: Bemildred | Apr 2 2020 19:03 utc | 257

The average incubation time is 5 days..2 to 7 for most folks. 14 days are used to catch 99% of infections.
Communist parties traditionally are known for honesty and transparency/ end of sarcasm. Saving face is a major Chinese trait, I would have been surprised if they have not tried to conceal it, it rythme

Posted by: hospital doc | Apr 2 2020 19:03 utc | 258

“I will say its pretty clear that China tried to suppress…” –hospital dog @251
Maybe I am just stupid, but it is not so clear to me. Could you supply me with the evidence that you imagine is providing that clarity?

Posted by: William Gruff | Apr 2 2020 19:06 utc | 259

“Communist parties traditionally are known for honesty and transparency…” –hospital dog @259
Thank you for demonstrating what ignorance and prejudice looks like. Now can you provide facts?

Posted by: William Gruff | Apr 2 2020 19:08 utc | 260

it rhymes with their traditional behaviour.
I guess that the dead chinese doc who blown the whistle Dr Li Wenliang was a troll too… and the recently disappeared dr Fen also.

Posted by: hospital doc | Apr 2 2020 19:09 utc | 261

Posted by: hospital doc | Apr 2 2020 19:03 utc | 259
“Communist parties traditionally are known for honesty and transparency”
Maybe no maybe just like capitalist countries..I can’t remember so much honesty throughout the last 50 years coming from west.

Posted by: LuBa | Apr 2 2020 19:11 utc | 262

yeah, those names are invented by me, they did not exist..also if you do not know what a saturation epidemiologic curve is, please restrain from comments…the internet is full of ignorant google specialists

Posted by: hospital doc | Apr 2 2020 19:15 utc | 263

Posted by: LuBa | Apr 2 2020 19:11 utc | 263
Yes, we are all transparent as can be here too. Never tell a lie, that is us. Mr Hospital Doc just reeks of transparency and honesty himself.

Posted by: Bemildred | Apr 2 2020 19:15 utc | 264

Well, do you have an objective argument to post ? it seems like we have today several comie stooges from the chinese internet propaganda division… they pay per hour or per post ??

Posted by: hospital doc | Apr 2 2020 19:20 utc | 265

“…the internet is full of ignorant google specialists…”
The hospital dog supplies us with an autobiography, not that anyone cares.

Posted by: William Gruff | Apr 2 2020 19:21 utc | 266

Posted by: William Gruff | Apr 2 2020 18:54 utc | 257
“reforesting their country at the same time. No other country in the world has done anything like that.
You missed out she (China) reforest deserts back into green pasture again and extensive researched growing rice in seawater.

Posted by: JC | Apr 2 2020 19:24 utc | 267

“…they pay per hour or per post?”
The hospital dog is apparently looking for a new job. I suppose the US State Department pay for gig work isn’t so good.

Posted by: William Gruff | Apr 2 2020 19:25 utc | 268

Posted by: Grieved | Apr 2 2020 18:47 utc | 255
Full of trolls today, about time Mr. b clean up and banned them.

Posted by: JC | Apr 2 2020 19:26 utc | 269

It is easy to spot the paid propaganda stooges : no arguments are given , but there is a short personal attack, short because there are many blogs to monitor and mess with…Wi Gu, or what is your real name

Posted by: hospital doc | Apr 2 2020 19:28 utc | 270

hospital doc(comment #262) says:
“I guess that the dead chinese doc who blown the whistle Dr Li Wenliang was a troll too… and the recently disappeared dr Fen also.”
Please stop the ignorant comments. It is embarrassing for Americans. Dr Li was not whistle blower and Dr Ai Fen did not disappear. Dr Li’s case has been thoroughly debated in Unz.com. He was a eye doctor and he didn’t have the knowledge to “blow” any whistle.

Posted by: d dan | Apr 2 2020 19:31 utc | 271

On 30 December 2019, Li saw a patient’s report which showed a positive result with a high confidence level for SARS coronavirus tests. The report had originated from Ai Fen, director of the emergency department at Wuhan Central hospital, who became alarmed after receiving laboratory results of a patient whom she had examined who exhibited symptoms akin to influenza resistant to conventional treatment methods. The report contained the phrase “Sars coronavirus”. Ai had circled the word “Sars”, and sent it to a doctor at another hospital in Wuhan. From there it spread throughout medical circles in Wuhan, where it reached Li.[15] At 17:43, he wrote in a private WeChat group of his medical school classmates: “7 confirmed cases of SARS were reported [to hospital] from Huanan Seafood Market.” He also posted the patient’s examination report and CT scan image. At 18:42, he added “the latest news is, it has been confirmed that they are coronavirus infections, but the exact virus strain is being subtyped”.[2] Li asked the WeChat group members to inform their families and friends to take protective measures. He was upset when the discussion gained a wider audience than he expected.[16]
After screenshots of his WeChat messages were shared on Chinese forums and gained huge attention, the supervision department summoned him to talk, where he was blamed for leaking the information.[2] On 3 January 2020, police from the Wuhan Public Security Bureau investigated the case and interrogated Li, giving him a warning notice and censuring him for “making false comments on the Internet”.[17] He was made to sign a letter of admonition promising not to do it again.[2] The police warned him that if he failed to learn from the admonition and continued to violate the law he would be prosecuted.[18]
After the admonition, Li returned to work in the hospital and contracted the virus on 8 January. On 31 January, he published his experience in the police station with the letter of admonition on social media. His post went viral and users questioned why the doctors who gave earlier warnings were silenced by the authorities.

Posted by: hospital doc | Apr 2 2020 19:37 utc | 272

@ Posted by: hospital doc | Apr 2 2020 19:03 utc | 259
Yeah, in a country with 1.4 billion people. Do the math.
Either way, your line of argument is that, if the Chinese government had extra 18 days to react, the pandemic would not be a pandemic, but just an epidemic that would just kill Chinese people.
From that line of thinking, either you’re praising the CCP for its excellence in governance, or you’re arguing that the Western governments would have reacted appropriately if they had 18 extra days.
This timeline doesn’t hold, because Trump wasted one month with the hoax argument. Boris Johnson did the same in the UK. Sweden is still living the dream, as is Belarus and other Eastern European countries.
And a government doesn’t need to be famous for its transparency and honesty for not wanting to lose millions of its own people. It basic game theory, you don’t need to get ideological to argue with that.
And dr. Ai Fen is alive and well.
51 doctors have already died in Italy. Some dozen others have already died in Ecuador. China is not the only country where doctors are “disappearing”.

Posted by: vk | Apr 2 2020 19:38 utc | 273

The hospital dog’s claims have now been debunked. Will the poster respond like a normal human and apologize for having gotten its facts wrong or will it do like a troll and Gish gallop to the next bogus claim?

Posted by: William Gruff | Apr 2 2020 19:50 utc | 274

If you read my post carefully, it may de confuse you. I said that China conceal the problem early thus canceling the odds of containment strategies in non vigilant countries. As it is seen from the above post, there was suppressed data before Jan the 1st.
I also said that the western countries failed to see the gravity of the problem months after that, thus sharing the blame.
The CCP deserves nothing but praise for the outstanding mitigation efforts, but that does not have anything to do with the early problems.
I do not get the link between poor reputation for disclosing internal affairs and the desire of not to loose millions of its own people… On the contrary, they were in a position to save millions by sounding an early alarm…

Posted by: hospital doc | Apr 2 2020 19:53 utc | 275

Jack Rabbit @ 256
Ahh your on to that as well I see. Sharp! Yes .
This is the latest US / UK genercidal strategy !
For at least the last 6 weeks delaying the testing equipment, restricting the protective /safety equipment and surpressing knowledge of the medicine avalabile, to treat early onset of the virus, thus prevent the high mortality rate.
That is three ways, these filthy politicians ect have helped wilfully to kill as many of the public as they can.
But here’s my point (finally) aware that as gullible as the public are including the media. The powers that be, are deliberately focusing on the first one or two as a distraction to the treatment you mention.
Here in U.K. hardly a mention of this life saving treatment !!
Hydroxychoroquinine.
By the time the public have become aware the virus can now be cured, we will be 6 months in. the virus will have (with help) taken a complete hold of our country ! Murdering 50%
The ‘chosen ‘ 50% being Adaquitly protected.

Posted by: Mark2 | Apr 2 2020 19:57 utc | 276

Weird that a hospital dog doesn’t understand issues like patient confidentiality. The doctors in Wuhan are supposed to publish all of their patients’ particulars before they realize that there is a public health problem? And once they do realize that there is a problem they should announce it to the world before measures are in place to contain the spread of the contagion?
I would think a reasonably bright therapy dog would be able to pick up on concepts like this from living in a hospital.

Posted by: William Gruff | Apr 2 2020 20:03 utc | 277

“Am I correct? Le Monde journalists are so ill informed of the real world that they believe snorkeling masks are used as “respirators” and not in order to replace mask+ googles? They claim a company is now producing these snorkeling masks to help fill in the lack of respirators! I think I have heard similar stories elsewhere where it was clear it was to protect the medical staff.”
Posted by: Mina | Apr 2 2020 11:17 utc | 179
This was reported on the BBC with an interview with the two Italian 3D printing designers. Inspired by the head of the local hospital, it is indeed a conversion for a Decalthalon mask turning it into a simple respirator. They have freely released their design as ‘open source’ and the .pdf has been downloaded over a million times as of yesterday. They just want to help humanity and quoted feedback from a Brazilian doctor who was already saving lives with it. Good for them!
https://www.somagnews.com/tool-convert-snorkel-respirator-mask-covid-19-patients/

Posted by: JohninMK | Apr 2 2020 20:10 utc | 278

I will tell you how it works in USA, Wi Gu. Once a doctor encounters a suspicious patient, state Health Department must be informed, they will contact Cdc and an epidemiologic case will be open asap. Please note that police is not involved at any moment in time… You seem to be very aware of what the docs in Wuhan are supposed to do and I am not surprised, comarade… now that your cover has been blown, please summon your disinfo brigade buddies out of here….

Posted by: hospital doc | Apr 2 2020 20:13 utc | 279

Equally, South Korea has tested like crazy, but their outcomes are worse than China’s. Clearly there are limits to the medical benefits of testing as well to the medical investigation plus testing path, although South Korea’s 33 nCOV deaths per 10M pop is far better than anyone else except China (24 nCOV per 10M).
From a relative risk perspective, though, the US overall is at 157/10M – driven largely by New York’s 998/10M. California is 52/10M and has the most testing vs. confirmed case ratio outside of Germany and South Korea.
Posted by: c1ue | Apr 2 2020 18:45 utc | 254
——————
It seems that S Korea had a reasonable strategy to minimize fatalities with relatively modest disruption of the economy. China isolated a province with population larger than South Korea, where the epidemic started with a big outbreak with several hundred cases. Thus comparing averages is not meaningful. OTOH, I heard some anecdotes how crazy was the testing in Korea. Positive cases were posted, together with businesses they visited, so people could volunteer for testing if they visited them too. That’s OK if the business in question was a garment boutique, or OK if the posting is anonymized, but no! You could read who visited some massage parlor. So some people were afraid to be tested, and intrepid police was hunting them, like patiently waiting for a sign of life in the apartment of a hiding person and then banging “Open up! We know you are there”.
——————–
To a sane person it is clear that enough was known about the initial stages of the epidemic for governments to prepare, were they so inclined. When did Russia closed the border with China?

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Apr 2 2020 20:27 utc | 280

“…save millions by sounding an early alarm…”
Sadly, dogs, even ones that live in hospitals, do not understand epidemiology. What would people do if they were told there is a deadly disease running rampant in their city and no measures are yet in place to contain it? They will get the heck out of Dodge… or Wuhan in this case. In the process they will spread the disease far and wide.
Come to think of it, these clowns’ complaints because a panic wasn’t sparked in China prior to the authorities getting their containment plans rolling sound like a serious case of sour grapes. It is almost as if these weirdos are upset because China was cool and methodical in dealing with America’s bioweapon attack on them. They are apparently suffering intense posterior pain due to the fact that the blow-back from America’s attack is far greater than the damage done by that attack to China.

Posted by: William Gruff | Apr 2 2020 20:38 utc | 281

#145 OuSi
Thank you so much friend! for referring to the detective stories by Robert van Gulik ,Dutch orientalist,diplomat and writer,born 1910.His protagonist Judge Dee rechter Tie in dutch language,was an historic person under the T’ang dynastie,about whom a lot of folklore and mystery literature was spun through the ages of chinese literature.Van Gulik stumbled on an ancient manuscript by unknown author from the 18th century,translated in english it was called “Celebrated cases of Judge Dee” Later on van Gulik wrote his own detective stories with the Dee figure,they are very good read and clever stories.
About the same personage there are two wonderful chinese films great achievements by all standards :Detective Dee,and Detective Dee II,that I would recommend to any body who wants to learn more about China and its spirit.I was stunned by the lenghth of the off-titling credits which gave me an idea of the great organizing and co-ordonnational capabilities.Hundreds of chinese and hongkong names ,and the hundreds of korean,and hundreds of japan,well maybe it is an asian movie.
Another nice movie is “Hero”that opposes the first Emperor who as a king of Qin beat and united the other six kingdoms to a warrior from Zhao.
They sure know how to organize

Posted by: willie | Apr 2 2020 21:28 utc | 282

hospital doc ignores my comment @256
I’m not surprised. He desperately wants to direct the conversation to what China did or didn’t do instead of the failure of the US/West response.
USA had enough info to act on the pandemic threat in early February. They didn’t.
Trump WANTED a CRISIS! to mask his bailout of Wall Street and corporations like Boeing. Plus he wants to help companies like Gilead Sciences to loot us.
As soon as he got his bailouts, Trump was talking about the timetable for returning people to work. But there is NO TALK of changing from ‘virus mitigation’ to ‘virus suppression’ because ‘mitigation’ reduces but doesn’t eliminate Covid-19 illnesses (to the benefit of Big Pharma).
Best government money can buy – with full support of 1%-ers like hospital docs.
There’s more here: Corovirus Response Failure: Additional Evidence
!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Apr 2 2020 21:42 utc | 283

Given the exponential spread, how many lives will have been lost by the weeks-long delay in acting?
It will be measured in terms of the last weeks of the virus.
If the virus kills 500,000 people before it is contained in 6 months, the delay in acting would likely mean more than 250,000 people died unnecessarily.
That’s blood on the hands of Trump, his political advisors, The National Security Council (who was coordinating the response), and the public health officials that never bothered to resign in protest at a failure to respond appropriately.
!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Apr 2 2020 21:51 utc | 284

@cuban guy 247
The probability of the epidemic starting in any area in a circle of radius 20km in China is 0.01%.
However, we are talking about one particular area of 20km radius – that around the BSL4 lab. The probability of an epidemic starting through natural means in an area within a 20km radius of the only BSL4 lab is 0.01%.
Did I get through to you? It’s the difference between the probability of a specific event and an event of a general class. Capisce? You can’t use the example you used in this scenario

Posted by: ancientarcher | Apr 2 2020 21:59 utc | 285

Wi Gu, it seems you like eating dogs, its ok. The problem came from your people eating the bats…please stop…
Jackrabbit, what are you talking about? Re-read 2 of my above posts, it says very clear that US/West failed to respond. The sheer amount of the problem was evident and all the flights from China should have been canceled, long before they did… but without a very early chinese warning, a lot of seeding was done.

Posted by: hospital doc | Apr 2 2020 22:48 utc | 286

@Bemildred #258
I don’t disagree with the 2 points you noted, but you also didn’t respond to my commentary on how the testing is done.
Particularly in the beginning – when testing availability is low – should not there be a protocol to maximize medical benefit of testing?
Secondly, outside of South Korea, the numbers of tests are still very low from a %population basis. The cost is also not trivial.
When I see ratios like less than 4 tests run per confirmed case of nCOV, it seems abundantly clear that only testing of symptomatic is occurring.
At the same time, the South Korea tests aren’t giving them better results than China. Better than the rest of world, sure, but it may well be that it is because of the medical tracking and quarantine of all potentially affected individuals.
You don’t even have to test to do that.
Lastly, the reality is that the testing is very unreliable. PCR based testing – which is the majority of tests run so far – won’t catch asymptomatic early in their infection or clear people who have recovered. It has a high false negative rate as a result – 29% error from what I saw.
Couple this with a US health system where people with lots of money have access to tests but few others do – doesn’t seem like testing numbers are so important when size of wallet is the primary driver behind getting a test done.

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 2 2020 23:33 utc | 287

The sheer volume of comments is more than I can read/absorb in detail. However, I want to list the gist of some by different barflies at different times which stuck in my mind and when assessed together in sequence make me wonder.
– Ft. Detrick closed by CDC for non-compliance (leaks?) in summer 2019
– US military team for Wuhan games trained at Ft. Detrick before the closure
– in the second half of 2019 there were reports of strange pneumonia deaths with previously unknown characteristics in various spots in the US, cause classified as flu/pneumonia/fibrous something that may have been C-19 before it was recognised as a new flavour of virus
– US military team was quartered not far from the Wuhan open market
– several (5?) team members were treated in hospital in Wuhan
I don’t know the sources for these comments and also did not note the individual comment numbers. Someone else may have the energy to find and verify them – I don’t. If these could be confirmed though what should one conclude?

Posted by: augrra | Apr 2 2020 23:51 utc | 288

Having lived in China 211,2012 and 2013, I have friends from north to south. One friend, a 55 year old woman lives in Wuhan city. She has 77 year old parents and a young daughter with a husband and a one year old grandson.
As is common in China, they often shop in neighborhood markets. Street markets with small vendors who sell their fruits, produce, meats and nuts. When I lived in Guangxi province in the south I shopped in them too. My friend and her parents bear out my experience: They’ve NEVER seen BATS traded in these markets. I believe entire bat nonsense is more bat shit than truth. But who can know the limits of the lies of two totalitarian governments on either side of the Pacific Ocean? I, for one, choose to believe the people I know and trust on the ground in the epicenter of CV-19

Posted by: Lawrence Cook | Apr 3 2020 0:20 utc | 289

NEVER seen BATS traded in these [Chinese] markets.Posted by: Lawrence Cook | Apr 3 2020 0:20 utc | 290
MERS allegedly originated from bats transmitting to camels and camels to humans. Clearly, camels did not buy any bats to supplement their vegetarian diet. Insects fly near camels (many are attracted to animals), bats eat insects and if they sneeze or drool, you get a transmission. Humans also live in places with insects and bats, so a direct bat -> human transmission is possible. Bats also like to live in nooks of buildings like barns, so they can transmit to agricultural workers or farm owners, but I imagine that they can live in supermarkets etc. too (if one can see sparrows and swallows in supermarkets, bats are possible as well, they tend to be discrete).
Similarly, bats did not buy any pangolins. If bats were the vessel for mixing a pangolin strain with one of their own, perhaps some liquid excreted by a pangolin had a contact with an insect that flew away and was consumed by a bat. In any case, there is a myriad of indirect contacts between species. Bat shit could be involved …

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Apr 3 2020 0:43 utc | 290

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 2 2020 23:33 utc | 288
“but you also didn’t respond to my commentary on how the testing is done”
That’s correct, I said it’s not my job, and that I’d get someone competent to handle it.
What I was explaining was why you have to do it to avoid this kind of mess. Worrying about money in this sort of situation is the wrong thing to worry about, had people in authority allowed/ordered competent people to get on the testing ASAP, huge amounts of money/capital would have been saved, boatloads.
China did it right, but almost too late, and we are complaining about that too, so how do we get of the hook for not doing what we complain about them not doing?
But that is enough, you carry on with this if you want.

Posted by: Bemildred | Apr 3 2020 0:46 utc | 291

hospital doc @287: … without a very early chinese warning, a lot of seeding was done.
Your ‘Yellow Peril’ dog won’t hunt.
USA/West had sufficient warning to take serious action by early Feb. Instead USA/West delayed action until it was sure to be a CRISIS! Then Trump could invoke a national emergency and funnel money to his friends (while blaming China).
Even establishment publications have recognized the failure:

NYTimes: China Bought the West Time. The West Squandered It.
Politico: Trump team failed to follow NSC’s pandemic playbook

And US/West is still fucking around as they doggedly pursue a ‘virus mitigation’ strategy that is likely to fail. With quick testing and an effective, low-cost treatment, the ONLY STRATEGY THAT MAKES SENSE is ‘virus suppression’ – which is what China and South Korea have been doing for nearly two months.

February 4
Nature
Remdesivir and chloroquine effectively inhibit the recently emerged novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in vitro
February 15
China Global Television Network (CGTN)
China develops COVID-19 detection kit that delivers results in 15 minutes

The only real reason I can see for such fucking around is to maximize profits of Big Pharma.
Stop wasting our time with ‘Yellow Peril’ nonsense.
!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Apr 3 2020 2:01 utc | 292

Annie #115
https://www.thelastamericanvagabond.com/top-news/all-roads-lead-dark-winter/
Thank you for that link. Whitney Webb is a magnificent investigative journalist.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Apr 3 2020 2:55 utc | 293

What is with this dog obsesion? And proudly praising China while linking China global television? Honestly, JR or Wi Gu or whatever your chinese name is, you are crude and non subtle. You can not deceive the ‘white devils’ and praise comarade Xi if you blow your cover like that. Maybe they are right when they say you are hard workers but lack creativity…

Posted by: hospital doc | Apr 3 2020 3:17 utc | 294

hospital doc @294
LOL. You’re the one that’s blown your cover with a response like that.
!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Apr 3 2020 3:43 utc | 295

Doc,
just go do your fucking job (if you’re even a real doc). please leave the history writing to researchers.
you provided zero insight and if it wasn’t for your handle most people would have skipped your comments. don’t think we haven’t noticed.
I thank you for your service.

Posted by: A.L. | Apr 3 2020 4:22 utc | 296

ancientarcher #169

b, would your reaction have been the same if a viral epidemic started close to any of the US’s BSL4 labs?
And barflies, please.. don’t muddle the issue here. Don’t talk about the many BSL4 labs all over the world that are operated by different countries, including the US in ex-soviet republics. They are not relevant.

What a load of BS broken arrow, You will never cover for the fubar at Fort Detrick BSL4 lab where pathogens were detected leaking YET AGAIN. Fort Detrick is a perpetual leak and managed by careless, incompetent fools. Even your CDC closed the craphouse down UNHEARD OF! Then your CDC was so f’ing negligent it allowed an olympic class military team to train there en route to China a week or two later.
You do see how little the CDC and the US military care about its personnel don’t you?
Same blunder as 1918 when the USA sent its pox ridden soldiers (those that survived training in USA bases) to the western front and then called it Spanish Flu. Another great USA fubar cover up crime against humanity.
You do see the pattern here I trust?
Its not just readers here that see it. Even the USA Trump admiring pundits like Steve Pieczenic see it as do commentators on his blog. Way back in August, October, November it was rampant in USA.
Your CDC likely has people in charge that have been drinking lead contaminated water since birth and they couldn’t even be bothered investigating that gross crime against humanity. So you are incapable of diverting attention from the USA.
Now lets get that US history and post mortem data and epidemiological data out in the public shall we.
And please advise your masters – don’t appoint Mueller to investigate it, like he did anthrax, 9/11, Russian activity in the USA or whatever.
Dark Winter coming up for you guys from many quarters within your country.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Apr 3 2020 4:51 utc | 297

please don’t debunk all the arrows some of the composite bow archers hurl through their mouth. whether it is 0.1% or elementary finger math, or all of the above kinds of methods…… it would be more fascinating to hear them further explore their creativity.

Posted by: jason | Apr 3 2020 4:57 utc | 298

Oil price today:
WTI Crude $23.84 -5.85% and yet their headlines reflect that as an increase from $20.31 – myopic I guess.
The oil adoration press are saying the US oil thieves are about to talk with the Russian state oil managers.
That will be revealing.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Apr 3 2020 5:02 utc | 299

augrra #289

– Ft. Detrick closed by CDC for non-compliance (leaks?) in summer 2019
– US military team for Wuhan games trained at Ft. Detrick before the closure
– in the second half of 2019 there were reports of strange pneumonia deaths with previously unknown characteristics in various spots in the US, cause classified as flu/pneumonia/fibrous something that may have been C-19 before it was recognised as a new flavour of virus
– US military team was quartered not far from the Wuhan open market
– several (5?) team members were treated in hospital in Wuhan
I don’t know the sources for these comments and also did not note the individual comment numbers. Someone else may have the energy to find and verify them – I don’t. If these could be confirmed though what should one conclude?

One could conclude some or all of these:
-hospitaldoc ate ancientarcher’s homework (statistically speaking)
-ancientarcher groks dogs and bbqs them for hospitaldoc
-hospitaldoc couldn’t recognise a logical fallacy if it bit him on the arse
-acientarcher is statistically non existent
-hospitaldoc has failed to earn his keep here today and should be fed to komodo dragons in the hills around me.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Apr 3 2020 5:36 utc | 300

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