Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
March 31, 2020

U.S. Virus Cases Are Off The Scale - But Its People Can Build A Movement From This

The latest Financial Times graphic for covid-19 cases per country shows that the U.S. case numbers are now literally off the scale.


Source - bigger

When John Burn-Murdoch created that daily updated chart he did not anticipate that any country would have more than a 100,000 total cases. That was a reasonable assumption as China, with 1.4 billion inhabitants, stopped the epidemic with less than 85.000 total cases even when it was surprised by the outbreak.

As of now the U.S. has 164.435 known cases. It will reach a total number of several dozens of millions and will have several hundreds of thousands of dead caused by the covid-19 disease.

Most but not all of those who will die from it will have one or more co-morbid diseases. The number of death in the U.S. will likely be higher than elsewhere because obesity, diabetes and heart problems are more prevalent in the U.S. than in most other countries.

Another reason why the U.S. will have a larger than necessary outbreak is wide mistrust in the authority of the state. A significant number of people will reject stay at home orders or other measures the authorities will have to take.

Then there is this:

Pouya Alimagham پويا عالي مقام @iPouya - 0:48 UTC · Mar 31, 2020

The regime doesn’t want to antagonize the religious classes. Thus, it isn’t doing anything about the fact that some religious sites remain open & clerics are encouraging worshippers to come & pray. These gatherings risk exploding #COVID19.

I’m talking about the US, not #Iran.

The U.S. also has many people without health insurance. The many newly laid off people will additionally lose theirs. These people will avoid seeing a doctor or to go to a hospital as the enormous costs would ruin them. The for-profit health system will reject sick persons who are unlikely to be able to pay their bills. The cases of people who die from such circumstance should be put into the death by lack of money category instead of being blamed on something else.

Congress has failed to take the necessary measures and to give everyone access to free tests and free care. This will come back to bite everyone as it makes sure that the disease will circulate longer and stronger than in other rich countries. Even the rich, who will gain most of the money Congress passed out, will be affected by this.


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The reasons that the U.S. will have very high numbers are obvious and they have nothing to do with China.

When the SARS virus broke out the world united in defeating it. It did that by isolating all cases and by aggressively tracing anyone who had come into contact with them. The fight was successful. The SARS virus no longer exists outside of high security laboratories.

But when the SARS-CoV-2 evolved there was no united response. China did its very best to defeat the virus. It won the fight against the virus within its country but other states did not join in the effort to eradicate it. SARS-CoV-2 is more infective than SARS and we will never know if an eradication attempt could have been successful. There is no glory in prevention. But it is sad that we did not even try.

The Center of Disease Control botched its creation of a test for the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes the disease. The German designed test model the World Health Organization recommended was rejected by the CDC. It wanted to do its own test and failed. U.S. testing started too late and it then tested too few to get a grip on the size of the emerging epidemic.

U.S. President Donald Trump did not believe that the virus would be a problem. U.S. media likewise played down the danger. Most of its reporting from China had a racist undertone. The nativist freakout only helps to hide the real origin of the crisis. Other conservative leaders in other countries, Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil, Boris Johnson in the UK, Alexander Lukashenko in Belarus and others, similarly ignored the predictable consequences of outbreaks in their countries.

It is now guaranteed that the virus will stay with humanity until someone finds a vaccine that is effective, safe to use and cheap. The task now is to reduce the speed of new infections so we do not overwhelm our healthcare systems.

A lot has been learned about the virus and how it behaves. SARS-CoV-2 is three to four times more infectious than the flu. The virus is transmitted by droplets which are then inhaled by other people. It then attacks cells in the upper throat and starts to replicate there. Two days later the infected person is infectious. Each time s/he speaks, coughs or sneezes s/he will release fine droplets which carry a high load of viruses. Symptoms, which only 75% of all infected persons will feel, usually start on day 5 or 6 after the infection. The main symptoms are a dry cough and general weakness. In some patents the symptoms may look like a heart attack. A person stays infectious until day 8 to 10.

The virus can be detected after it started to replicate. A swab test is taken (it feels like it looks) and processed. If the result is positive the person must be quarantined to protect others.


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The way the disease develops is the reason for my repeated urging to wear a masks. You have no real way to know if you already carry and spread the disease. The mask may not help to prevent you from getting infected but it can definitely help to prevent you from infecting others. Wear a mask out of courtesy towards the people around you.

In many Asian countries wearing a mask is a social rule that everyone follows. These countries, light blue in the above chart, had way less ravaging covid-19 epidemics than 'western' societies where wearing a mask is seen as suspicious or as a sign of weakness. This attitude will now surely have to change.

After replicating in the throat for a few days the virus migrates from the throat into the lower lungs where it replicates more rapidly and begins to create real havoc. The immune system of most healthy people will defeat the virus after some 10 to 18 days. But the fight is often difficult. Some of the symptoms during that phase are not from the virus but from the way our immune system reacts to it.

It destroys the many cells that are infected by the virus and thereby rips holes into the lung tissue. The body then starts an inflammatory response to repair the destroyed cells. The whole process can cause pneumonia. Artificial breathing support will then be needed for people who have already other conditions that cause breathing or circulation problems. Some patients may also develop heart problems. If their lungs become unable to provide enough oxygen to the circulating blood the person will die.

Survivors of covid-19 will have developed immunity for at least a year. While the SARS-CoV-2 virus has developed into several strains it has not mutated into a different form as some common flu viruses often do. That increases the likelihood that a once acquired immunity will continue to protect against a reinfection.

Every crisis is also a chance. Congress has used it to again loot the people and to push more money to the rich. At the same time the powers that be have denied universal healthcare and paid sick leave to those who need it. The covid-19 epidemic is a chance to change that.

There are already a number of strikes at Amazon and similar companies over work safety, health care and pay. Rent strikes must now follow. When the bills come in for families with covid-19 cases many more people will get more interested in medicare for all. A movement can be build from these issues. The Sanders campaign should provide a (virtual) platform for it.

The U.S. has enough money to pay for the security of its people. Security is not a military issue. A hugely expensive aircraft carrier with sick sailors is worth nothing. Pandemics are a real security issues and the U.S. has left its people defenseless against them. Cut the aircraft carriers and other insane military spending and invest it in the health of the people.

That message will soon be widely understood. We can all help to reinforce it.

---
Previous Moon of Alabama posts on the issue:

Posted by b on March 31, 2020 at 17:48 UTC | Permalink

Comments
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@b & @11 TrailerTrash—all excellent commentary

Rent strikes are a direct way to draw attention to the inequities of the criminal misuse of public funds currently underway. My great fear (in Australia at least) is that with massive unemployment comes a a delayed tsunami of mortgage defaults. Here in Oz the aspirational middle classes underwrite over-leveraged banks who are in turn propped up by conservative neoliberal policies. They have been encouraged to use their mortgage as a golden goose because property prices only ever go up, right? But here's where I despair: to prevent the angry, xenophobic, neo-fascist backlash that will be whipped up as hundreds of thousands of families lose their homes these same conservative neoliberal governments will backfill the loan vacuum to forestall loss of homes. In other words, public funds will be allocated to help people pay mortgages—i.e. private debts are swapped for public debt—and thus to prop up banks overexposed to housing loans.

I rent partly because I hate debt and partly because as an academic I have been in a precarious sector for most of my life (though I have tenure now, thank the gods). Am I now to accept that the public purse to which I contribute in order to support the communal enterprise of a citizen community (Medicare, free education, public services, etc) will now principally be used to bail out mortgage-holders who dined out prodigally when times were good and will now lose their investments now the shite has hit the fan?

My rent strike, should I commit to it in solidarity with all other renters and those who prudently spend only what they have rather than hedge against the future, would be a protest against the reduction of housing to a speculative commodity and a plea that a dwelling should be one of the fundamental duties of care for any truly democratic government toward its citizen body. I fear too that the effect of the virus on the world's homeless will not even register a note in any media outlet. Homelessness is a scourge and a crime.

Housing is dignity and a right, not a privilege to be managed by profiteers in human suffering and anxiety. Landlords, may I introduce you to Mde Guillotine?

Posted by: Patroklos | Mar 31 2020 22:20 utc | 101

Posted by: lysias | Mar 31 2020 22:09 utc | 99

"The coronavirus will devastate the U.S. submarine fleet. Those guys work in such close quarters."

Yep. The military is by nature mostly a herd activity, and having plenty of sick people is more than enough to "impair operations capability" etc. etc. even if you have stuff that works right.

Posted by: Bemildred | Mar 31 2020 22:21 utc | 102

COBRA is a joke. I work a government job for the State of Oregon. Still working, as I am considered essential, but looking at a layoff in a month or two. When laid off I will have the option of maintaining my crappy insurance for $1000 a month, or pay my rent at $1100 a month...obviously the insurance will have to go.

Posted by: Haasaan | Mar 31 2020 22:31 utc | 103

@ c1ue 91.

Thank you. To be clear I listed only cases but referenced the link to Worlometers.info - a very detailed breakout that includes the Countries - death rate by age and sex of patients, Case graphs, Death graphs, Incubation etc.,
Love your commentary.

========

If are a doctor who talk to the Press - you can be fired.
Hospitals Tell Doctors They’ll Be Fired If They Speak Out About Lack of Gear

Hospitals are threatening to fire health-care workers who publicize their working conditions during the coronavirus pandemic -- and have in some cases followed through.

Ming Lin, an emergency room physician in Washington state, said he was told Friday he was out of a job because he’d given an interview to a newspaper about a Facebook post detailing what he believed to be inadequate protective equipment and testing. In Chicago, a nurse was fired after emailing colleagues that she wanted to wear a more protective mask while on duty. In New York, the NYU Langone Health system has warned employees they could be terminated if they talk to the media without authorization.[.]

Posted by: Likklemore | Mar 31 2020 22:35 utc | 104

The article states: "As of now the U.S. has 164.435 [cases]."

Actually, the number is 185,270. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

The article's first chart asserts that in sundry nations, the case-number doubles every day, or every second day, or every third day. The chart is not drawn well. I cannot determine quite surely whether the chart asserts that United States cases double every day. But such is the chart's seeming assertion.

The chart's term "double" bears a meaning I have not encountered previously. If 20 is the time-1 N, then the time-2 N is 2 x 20 = 40 and the time-3 N is 80. The time-2 N is not a second 20 and the time-3 N is not a third 20.

In the United States, NEITHER the new cases NOR the new deaths are doubling every day, or every two days, or every three days.

UNITED STATES NEW CASES AND NEW DEATHS

(A) New cases

Now, 2:35 PM Pacific Time, 31 March 2020

21,885

End of yesterday, 30 March 2020

20,297

(B) New Deaths

Now, 1:47 PM Pacific Time, 31 March 2020

647

End of yesterday, 30 March 2020

558

Worldometer, https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Worldometer references its sources, transparently. Its sources include reports of state and local governments. The sources include also some news papers. But in every state’s case, at least one source is state or local government. In California’s case, the only direct source is the Los Angeles Times. But that source’s data are supplied by California government.

Posted by: Loup-Bouc | Mar 31 2020 22:40 utc | 105

Bemildred | Mar 31 2020 21:33 utc | 89
To all MOA readers:

Here is classic explanation of Exponential Growth by Dr. Al Bartlett full of awesome examples apropos to SARS-COVID19'

Best I know of by actual experience.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kZA9Hnp3aV4

Posted by: chu teh | Mar 31 2020 22:49 utc | 106

The idea that some one up top should dictate what everyone at the bottom must do in times of crisis.. is unacceptable when those at the top do not timely, and often never, fully disclose to all everywhere all of time, the full set of facts (good with bad) is criminal in such cases.

If Trump had acted when he had the first glimpse of facts, this pandemic could have been controlled. clearly the Chinese experience should have taught the world if they use Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycine AZ and locally made respirators are far superior to anything the PTB have thus far provided. 6 Trillion to in debt the next 50 generations. for the benefit of the few that live in this generation.

The government should be showing physician by physician what is working and what is not, which hospitals, which care, and which patient histories are showing what. Everyone is entitled to know.

I would hope that b or someone make a url list of all website information. given here relating to treatment.. and number each URL so that we can all contribute to the information as it comes to our attention.

Posted by: snake | Mar 31 2020 22:50 utc | 107

Today's CCD/DSU numbers.
I won't recopy the recap, see previous posts.
I added the following:
#confirmed per 10M population
#death per 10M population
CCD as %pop
DSU as %pop

The above 4 numbers give a much better idea on how the different nations' populations are faring with nCOV.

Note that New York is bad and keeps getting worse - it is not as bad as Italy but is pretty bad.

The CCD/pop and DSU/pop are to give an idea what the #deaths/10M population means: normal flu mortality of 0.1% to 0.2%, with 15% infection rates, means 1000 to 2000 people per 10M die.
Italy is seeing 2000 people per 10M die from nCOV with infection rates somewhere between 0.174% and 2.7% - showing just how much more lethal nCOV is.
CCD DSU for March 31, 2020

Posted by: c1ue | Mar 31 2020 22:51 utc | 108

Loup-Bouc 106

It is quite obvious by b's post that "now" means the at the time of writing.

If you are going to use or quote worldometer, a least learn a little about it. Comparing 24 hr numbers to part day numbers makes you look pretty stupid. And learn a little about doubling time.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 31 2020 22:54 utc | 109

I should also note: New York actually has a higher #nCOV per 10M population than Italy (38,989 vs. 17,400), and is running fewer tests per confirmed case of nCOV (2.71 vs. 4.79).
New York is also clearly earlier in the cycle, so the lower death rate per 10M isn't meaningful yet (but is still significant: 797 vs. Italy's 2044).

We will be seeing, in the next 2 weeks, just how much difference there is in health care between New York and Italy.

Posted by: c1ue | Mar 31 2020 22:57 utc | 110

@ Posted by: c1ue | Mar 31 2020 22:57 utc | 111

What's scarry about the USA is that, albeit it is testing relatively less than most of the world, it is registering 30-50% rates of infected. In other words, even with low rate of testing, the Americans are already registering high rates of infected.

Posted by: vk | Mar 31 2020 23:00 utc | 111

All that the Powers that be care about is resurrecting the Stock Market. Liquidity injections may stabilize the House of Cards even if disrupted Chinese supply chains mean little recovery of productivity; lacking parts and supplies, it's obviously difficult to even manufacture test kits or ventilators, much less get the economy back on its feet.
The biggest reason Asia (the light blue countries) are doing well is that they largely blocked the infection before it entered. Many have increased that blockade requiring ALL (including citizens) to quarantine for 14 days after entering. The US had imbeciles claiming that such travel restrictions were "Racist": now we have useless EU travel restrictions that are too little, too late (once a significant portion of the population is infected, travel restrictions are pointless; they are only effective before the virus gets in). Masks are probably more psychological, and the infected should wear them, the immune compromised should not be out and about.
The US has the major problem that we cannot quarantine our workers. Without work, they get no money to survive. Since health insurance is generally tied to jobs, they lose both together (although most cannot afford the cost even with insurance). So, unlike Asian countries, we cannot effectively quarantine most people. Evidently, much of New York City disagrees in principle with quarantine and have money to travel everywhere, spreading the virus as they move.
While the Asian countries, particularly S Korea, have used the PCR test to quarantine those infected or exposed, the Antibody/ serological test may be more important at this stage for the US. Anyone who has adequate titers should be free of quarantine, and free to work or volunteer to help with those most vulnerable. We have no idea how many Americans have been infected and recovered. The antibody testing will help in that regard as well.

Posted by: michael888 | Mar 31 2020 23:05 utc | 112

They went there. Time to rush to experiment.

Matter of life & death’: Trump’s Covid-19 task force projects 100,000+ Americans will die even under tough 30-day isolation

Senior members of the White House Covid-19 task force said Americans should prepare for 100,000 deaths from the pandemic, as the US president warned that following distancing guidelines was now a matter of life and death.

“The answer is yes,” said Dr Anthony Fauci, a top expert on the coronavirus response team, when asked if the US could really see between 100,000 and 240,000 fatalities in the outbreak at a White House press conference on Tuesday, but added that he "hoped" containment measures could reduce the number.

and yesterday
the FDA issued emergency authorization of anti-malaria drug for COVID-19 to include Chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine

Posted by: Likklemore | Mar 31 2020 23:09 utc | 113

The 2009 fake pandemic gave us Obamacare. Maybe this fake pandemic is meant to give us medicare for all. That could be a good thing, but maybe not if its meant to deny treatments to sick people and enforce mandatory vaccinations/reproductive management procedures. Cant really trust these people .

Anyways, there are no excess deaths in Europe

https://www.euromomo.eu/index.html

Italy has an uptick but its only experiencing higher deaths with a mortality rate ranked 3rd over 5 years in Italy. Meaning they had 2 flu seasons in the last 5 years that were not covid related and yet had more deaths

In Italy and other countries they are just calling more of those pneumonia deaths as COVID deaths. In my country an elderly COVID patient with serious heart condition who recovered from pneumonia and after release died of a heart attack. He goes down as a COVID death. Lol

In the US its hard to get data thats not absolute garbage. That is by design. The record will show eventually mortality rate has not increased significantly, although suicides and deaths from untreated diseases due to fear of going to hospital or hospitals cancelling appointments/surgeries will increase. In the US 7500 die each day of all causes and 50,000 die of pneumonia each year. only 80% full during flu season .

The US has 5 times the ICU beds per capita as Italy/UK and has more respirators than ICU beds. There are 6 times more hospital beds than ICU beds and many can be freed by postponing elective surgeries. There is no crisis, just head over to your nearest hospital/ER in the US. Plenty of twitter videos showing empty city hospitals (as those needing treatment avoid the hospital for fear of catching something)

Anyone with an IQ over 80 and even a semblance of an education should be able to see through this hype. Of course, if believing in the lie is part of your job description I guess you go along. And others just follow the herd so they don't have to think.

Posted by: Pft | Mar 31 2020 23:10 utc | 114

KiltedKing @98: the hatred comes naturally ... [for] immoral China-men

And yet there is so little hatred for US political elites that allowed it to happen because US businesspeople wanted to and then were making a bundle screwing working-class Americans with cheap imports.

Your government sold you out and now is directing your hatred to China.

And you and millions like you still bend over.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Mar 31 2020 23:18 utc | 115

The mule posterior is calling itself "king" now?

Posted by: William Gruff | Mar 31 2020 23:18 utc | 116

"I do not understand why people are still bothering trying to dismiss this covid issue as a hoax." Posted by: William Gruff | Mar 31 2020 20:02 utc | 46

It's simple. Americans are like children who hate to be inconvenienced for five minutes without whining about it. (I'm an American, so yes, that applies to me, too.) So they want the (alleged) lockdown (alleged because it isn't really a "lockdown" on the Chinese scale) to go away so they can continue their normal mentally-blinded occupations.

There is also something called "cognitive dissonance." If someone can't emotionally accept a situation, they deny the situation exists or will exist.

Like they said in the movie "Blazing Saddles": "You know...morons."

San Francisco has yet to do *anything* about the ten to fifteen thousand homeless living on the streets or in tent cities all over the city, but especially in my neighborhood, the Tenderloin. I have to walk past dozens of these immune-compromised individuals when I'm out getting supplies. Santa Clara county, which has been much harder hit (so far) than San Francisco, has rounded up their homeless and housed them in the huge fairgrounds. San Francisco needs to round up our homeless, move them to Golden Gate Park, house them in prefab shelters, and provide them with food, medical help and most importantly virus testing and subsequent isolation for those infected. Otherwise a huge number of these people will be taking up beds in the hospitals and will help in spreading the virus if they are not admitted due to inability to pay (or the system is overwhelmed). But no, the PTB in San Francisco evidently think they can get rid of the homeless by letting them die of the virus.

Meanwhile, despite all the critics of the hydroxychloroquine and Z-PAK treatment offered by people who aren't using the protocol and have nothing at stake in criticizing it, more and more doctors are using it and getting good outcomes. WSJ: 'Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin Continue to Show Results' for Coronavirus Patients - http://www.informationliberation.com/?id=61333

I'm lucky in a couple respects: 1) I'm retired and living on a fixed income - so unemployment doesn't affect me as long as the government continues to send Social Security checks. 2) I'm used to living alone and prefer it - so not having contact with the rest of you chimpanzees doesn't affect me at all.

I'm not buying the hysteria that this is "the Apocalypse" or the final "SHTF" as the preppers call it. This virus will be contained, the US and world economy will take a beating, the consequences will resonate for the next five or ten years. But that's about it. No insurrections, no civil war, none of that is likely. War with Iran is still the biggest violence probability going forward.

But of course, my predictions are no better than those coming from the hysterics. So as usual, it boils down to "we'll see."

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Mar 31 2020 23:22 utc | 117

@ 95 per/ norway... more fear mongering from rt??? ‘Matter of life & death’: Trump’s Covid-19 task force projects 100,000+ Americans will die even under tough 30-day isolation

who ya gonna call? fear busters!!!

hey, maybe trump and company can issue worldwide sanctions on covid-19... nah... that probably won't work either...

Posted by: james | Mar 31 2020 23:23 utc | 118

MoA believes the SARS-CoV-2 virus is spreading unchecked in the U.S. MoA also believes the virus leads to very high mortality compared to other coronaviruses that are already widespread. Therefore, MoA should expect to see evidence of significant excess total mortality in the U.S. population.

My questions for b. at MoA:
• Are you looking for evidence of excess total mortality in parts of the U.S. or the whole country?
• If you are, have you seen it?
• If you are, and you haven’t seen it, when do you expect to start seeing it?
• If you look for it and continue not to see it, when would you begin to question your beliefs about the virus and COVID-19?
• If you aren’t looking for such evidence, why not?

Posted by: David G | Mar 31 2020 23:25 utc | 119

re wearing mask

1.WHAT mask? Only N95 or FFP type, or better effectiveness

than 0.3 micron such as P-100, will clearly inhibit passage.

2. Carriers without symptoms do not know they are carriers. Their, and your, exhale cloud can be contagious.

3. Any mask will, to some degree, block/inhibit/limit droplet passage. How much do you wish to avoid catching this virus?...then, maybe wear it now whenever leave home. YOU decide, not BigBrother.

4. As all nuclear power-plant workers know in the reactor containment bldg.., never-touch-face! [can use known clean wipe if you must].

5. China did experience major loss of nurses, etc who, early on, used inferior mask [e.g. isolation mask].So they mandated N95 or equivalent. There is also hi-end protection...see PAPR or CAPR protection in use by some hi-end docs and nurses.

6. Can re-use a mask if fresh not available BUT there are ways to sterilize for re-use.

7. Prepare now to make own mask, albeit inferior. Materials and DIY on UTube...just in case in future you have no choice.

Total

Posted by: chu teh | Mar 31 2020 23:25 utc | 120

Realist @97:

Comrade Bernie-bro Bevin, despite having the opportunity to see it twice now, seems unable to make sense of the Bernie Sanders roadshow. Twice now Mr BS has pulled the same stunt.

... It's plain now, even to the blind, taht given Mr BS' complete unwillingness to actually put up a fight when challenged or cheated, that his role was never to actually try and win.


We need more Realists!

A breathe of fresh air.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Mar 31 2020 23:25 utc | 121

If people are having difficulty getting facemasks here is where we have been getting facemasks for citizens from. It is worth reading the fine print on the listing tho because some (especially for disposable medical masks) have an up to 14 day delay before shipment. Others guarantee immediate shipment and I know y'all have been indoctrinated into believing chinamen lie, but if the shipments we have received are anything to go by, scrupulous honesty is the order of the day for facemasks.
One more thing you may have to scour news services to discover, I heard/saw it on France 24 .
That is in Italy Spain & france where 'complications of covid 19 are a bit over 70% humans aged 60 years or more, over 60's are a minority 30%, from memory, of the humans put on ventilators.
A very basic form of triage is going on the moment a patient struggles to breathe for themself, undoubtedly related to co-morbidity so if like me you are of that age & have hypertension or such, make sure you have as much protection as you can get.

Posted by: A User | Mar 31 2020 23:26 utc | 122

john brewster @69--
John, if your goal is to enforce your version of syntactic consistency in blog comments -- or other hobgoblins normally of interest to little minds -- you might wish to raise your standards for the rest of us. Rather than quibbling over the use of abbreviations, which would be unworthy of your time, theirs and mine, consider addressing matters of substance before us.

Among the things we are fed too much of, are panicky reassurances that the prospects of bad things are overblown. As the passage of days sweeps most of these "just-like-the-flu" reassurances away, let's take the opportunity to explore, as is best practice in risk management, credible worst case and worst-imaginable case scenarios.

One such, which I presented above, is this: the plausible (not most likely but worth considering) prospect of tens of millions of excess deaths in the US over the coming year or so, and the implications that this would have on public order in a corrupt, undisciplined and inequitable society.

If you have something of substance to say on this, please do, but perhaps you might spare us the otiose reassurances that this is not the most likely outcome (which I readily grant). As an alternative to soothing us or your intellectual fellows with rapidly negated best-case scenarios, apparently huffing into a paper bag helps with the jitters.


Posted by: Paul Damascene | Mar 31 2020 23:27 utc | 123

Just a reminder:

Who or what is responsible for you?

Posted by: chu teh | Mar 31 2020 23:28 utc | 124

BTW, another note on San Francisco. Apparently some morons were hanging around the convenience stores until all hours, so the Mayor decided to order them closed at 8PM every night. As an example of whining, I frequently go out for snacks later than that, so this is an irritation.

But I'll live. Half the commenters here would go ballistic if that happens in their town.

Eventually as the cases and death toll rises, these morons will fall silent (except for the biowarfare scenario, which they'll flog for the rest of their lives.)

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Mar 31 2020 23:32 utc | 125

nyc numbers update:

around 8500 hospitalized

the city expanded its numerical reporting,
here (covid data from nyc.gov)

the old format pdf's are still there at the bottom of the page linked.

the sudden apparent decline in hospitalizations yesterday does seem to be due to reporting delays.

in any case, the daily new hospitalizations graph seems to have plateaued last week, and I would expect them to start falling this week. the daily deaths should then also do the same. that is tremendously good news for the city.

Posted by: ptb | Mar 31 2020 23:38 utc | 126

Pft @115: The 2009 fake pandemic gave us Obamacare.

No. Obamacare originated in campaign promises starting in 2007.

Obama also promised a "public option". Something very similar to Bernie's Medicare for all. But Obama broke that promise saying it wasn't "American".

He also broke a bunch of other campaign promises, declaring toward the end of his Presidency that: "I believe in American exceptionalism with every fiber of my being".

All those who thought he was "black" and "inclusiveness" was paramount in his thinking should've immediately seen that he was full always full of shit.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Mar 31 2020 23:39 utc | 127

For people worried about availability of masks, a quite cheap and effective mask can be can be easily made from simple everyday materials readily available in almost every home.

A section of vacumn-cleaner bag sandwiched between two sections of cut Tea-towel/dish-drying cloths


https://mobile.twitter.com/CMichaelGibson/status/1239718351573843973

    Cambridge scientists tested 0.02 micron Bacteriophage MS2 particles (5 times smaller than the coronavirus) & compared homemade masks made of different materials to surgical masks.
    Surgical mask blocks 89%
    Vacuum cleaning bag 85%
    Dish Towel 73%
    T shirt 70%

https://mobile.twitter.com/CMichaelGibson/status/1239719367274901504

    Cambridge researchers tested if wearing 2 layers of homemade masks improved filtration. For a dish cloth / tea towel it furthered improved filtration

Posted by: Realist | Mar 31 2020 23:44 utc | 128

For people worried about availability of masks, a quite cheap and effective mask can be can be easily made from simple everyday materials readily available in almost every home.

A section of vacumn-cleaner bag sandwiched between two sections of cut Tea-towel/dish-drying cloths


https://mobile.twitter.com/CMichaelGibson/status/1239718351573843973

    Cambridge scientists tested 0.02 micron Bacteriophage MS2 particles (5 times smaller than the coronavirus) & compared homemade masks made of different materials to surgical masks.
    Surgical mask blocks 89%
    Vacuum cleaning bag 85%
    Dish Towel 73%
    T shirt 70%

https://mobile.twitter.com/CMichaelGibson/status/1239719367274901504

    Cambridge researchers tested if wearing 2 layers of homemade masks improved filtration. For a dish cloth / tea towel it furthered improved filtration

Posted by: Realist | Mar 31 2020 23:45 utc | 129

ptb

The change in the graph may also be a result of full hospitals, the bar for admittance being raised as hospitals approach capacity.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 31 2020 23:51 utc | 130

US Covid19 death projections put out within the past week or so by the University of Washington (state) School of Medicine's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections indicate a broad peak of daily covid deaths to reach a DAILY median rate of ~2200 +/-1100 deaths/day  by April 15, just two weeks from now.  Model assumes existing standard supportive care regimens to continue w/o any new breakthrough therapies happening.

Error/ uncertainty range of their modelling allows that US Covid fatality rate could be as high as 3300 deaths (ie, ~one 911)  per day, or as low as 1100 deaths (~4 jumbo airliner fatal crashes)/day, that will continue to repeat DAILY, tapering off gradually over two or more following months.

Daily drumbeat of this magnitude of deaths in the US media will be hard for this US population to withstand I fear, so it might be downplayed or buried.  

Additional IHME Covid data here:  http://www.healthdata.org/ .

Posted by: gm | Apr 1 2020 0:08 utc | 131

Patroklos | Mar 31 2020 22:20 utc | 102

Housing...does criminal price-gouging come to mind? Oh, wait... the rule writers said it's legal? So it's OK?

1. Who are the rule-writers?
2. Who are the real rule-writers?
3. Who decides what the rule means?
4. Who really decides ...
5. Who decides how the rule is enforced? and when it is not enforced?
6. Who really decides...

Posted by: chu teh | Apr 1 2020 0:08 utc | 132

@ Posted by: David G | Mar 31 2020 23:25 utc | 122

Obviously, there aren't statistics for excess deaths due to the COVID-19 yet, as those numbers can only be collected after the pandemic is over.

All we have now are the mortality rates. And yes, they show a much higher mortality than other coronaviruses: even Trump's 100,000 dead are already above the yearly deaths from pneumonia in the USA (80,000).

--//--

@ Posted by: Pft | Mar 31 2020 23:10 utc | 115

The Italian government itself is declaring those deaths as deaths from COVID-19. Why are you doubting those numbers?

And Spain is also catching up with Italy in terms of deaths per day (24h). France is also showing potential to present Italy-like numbers of daily deaths. You could claim one specific government uses an awkward methodology - but three? Either there's something in the old Roman Empire's water, or it is simply the case those numbers are solid.

Today I watched the news in CGTN, and it appears that, albeit the USA has a 34 per 100,000 ICUs, they are unequally distributed: New York has 24 ICUs per 100,000, but San Francisco has 200 per 100,000, and Chicago has even more (if memory doesn't fail me, it was 240 per 100,000 inhabitants). So you have a few cities with a lot of ICUs and other cities with below national average ICUs per capita. As half the cases are in NYC and the city has 10 ICUs below the national average, it wouldn't be farfetched to speculate its healthcare system is indeed collapsing.

Posted by: vk | Apr 1 2020 0:08 utc | 133

Paul Damascene @ 126

John, if your goal is to enforce your version of syntactic consistency in blog comments -- or other hobgoblins normally of interest to little minds -- you might wish to raise your standards for the rest of us. Rather than quibbling over the use of abbreviations, which would be unworthy of your time, theirs and mine, consider addressing matters of substance before us.

Oh, the common meaning of words, not to mention scientific terminology, is nothing but "semantic consistency"? Who are you? Bill Clinton and "it depends on what the meaning of the word 'is' 'is"?

You want to completely reinvent the meaning of "case fatality rate" from per infected to per severely impacted patient. That's a mere hobgoblin. A mere factor of ten. Let's change the definition of CFR from death to death or severe impairment. That's just a quibble for little minds. I sure wouldn't want you for my doctor.

Its not mere semantics to completely change the definition of a scientific term. It's misrepresentation and best, and lying at worst. I'm sure that you will understand that it is mere semantics when I call you a liar.

You refuse to acknowledge that your numbers are at odds with common usage. Instead you dodge and deflect with generalities and tropes that any high school debater might use when caught making shit up.

Among the things we are fed too much of, are panicky reassurances that the prospects of bad things are overblown. As the passage of days sweeps most of these "just-like-the-flu" reassurances away, let's take the opportunity to explore, as is best practice in risk management, credible worst case and worst-imaginable case scenarios.

"Panicky reassurances"? Geez, you do just make shit up. Reassurance is the opposite of panic in my dictionary. But, clearly you have your own dictionary. In your dictionary, asking for solid data equals giving reassurance. No, I am asking for people like you to stop running their mouth with casually made up numbers that cloud the facts.

One such, which I presented above, is this: the plausible (not most likely but worth considering) prospect of tens of millions of excess deaths in the US over the coming year or so, and the implications that this would have on public order in a corrupt, undisciplined and inequitable society.

Now you say that what you previously defended is "not most likely, but worth considering". If you had said that in the first place, we wouldn't be having this exchange.

If you have something of substance to say on this, please do, but perhaps you might spare us the otiose reassurances that this is not the most likely outcome (which I readily grant). As an alternative to soothing us or your intellectual fellows with rapidly negated best-case scenarios, apparently huffing into a paper bag helps with the jitters.

I already said something of substance. You just chose to ignore it. You have no facts. You just bloveate about the unfairness of anyone actually calling you to account on your bullshit.
I'm sure you will declare that I haven't proven anything. Well, you had nothing to start with, so I didn't have to prove anything. That burden was on you; and you failed.

We are through here. You have nothing substantive. Just twenty-five cent word insults. Goodbye.

Posted by: john brewster | Apr 1 2020 0:10 utc | 134

so sad...

Posted by: james | Apr 1 2020 0:19 utc | 135

@Pft #115
I don't think you actually have looked at the numbers you talk about.
If normal flu mortality is 0.1% to 0.2% - with typically 15% of the population infected, this is 1000 to 2000 dead per year per 10M population.
Announced nCOV deaths in Italy, per 10M population, is already at 2000.
There is zero likelihood that these are all normal flu deaths being called nCOV.
Secondly, the percentage of the population infected with nCOV is between 0.17% to 2.7% of the population. While Italy's normal death rate per year is 10.3 per 1,000 = 8583 per month per 10M population, that is for 100% of Italy.
Looking at the population that has nCOV: 0.17% of 8583 = 14, 2.7% = 231 - that's the range of monthly deaths from all causes.
It simply isn't credible to say that all of the 12,400 nCOV deaths thus far are normal mortality - flu or otherwise - reclassified as nCOV unless there is some magic mechanism where only the people about to die also catch nCOV.

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 1 2020 0:25 utc | 136

@vk #139
The hospitals in SF are misleading because SF is a tiny city - 850K but it serves the entire Bay Area: 6.6 million people.
It is less clear to me if the differences in hospital bed/ICU are different for the entire Bay Area.
Furthermore, the Bay Area county most affected isn't SF - it is Santa Clara which is separated from SF by San Mateo county.
Santa Clara is Google, Yahoo, and Facebook...
I'd also note that Spain has a higher percentage of its population confirmed with nCOV, and lower tests/confirmed case than Italy.
It would not surprise me at all if Spain's mortality per 10M passes Italy in a week or so.

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 1 2020 0:30 utc | 137

I mentionto friends and family how China defeated the corona virus and they say 'well china is a police state and the can enforce lockdowns'.
That sort of shit always comes from people who have never been to China and do not realise it is us that live in a police state.
China lockdown and quarantine was coupled with actively tracking and eradicating the disease.
here we have a lock down where you can be arrested and jailed if you are not on essential business when out and about. Many businesses have been closed and people out of work.
there is no program to eradicate the disease - no wide scale testing or temperature monitoring, no quarantine that I no of for confirmed cases.
Under those circumstances the lock down is without end... and clowns say but China is a police state... well now I simply watch with interest as the disease progresses and at the idiocy of our white supremist society that absorbs the messages coming from msm.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 1 2020 0:37 utc | 138

I run an Infectious Disease Practice in the US.
Currently, there is an acute shortage of MDs in the US.

Gov Como's task force sent out repeated emails for personal info from MDs. They used an anomyous email address which does not accept replies.

Ditto Indiana and Florida.

My recommendation is this..... If you feel you are being asked to risk your life at your job to make admin look good.... take the photos.... post it on facebook, VK, or anywhere else you have access.

When they threaten to fire you.... demand a written notice specifying why.... AND...

Say the following: "Go ahead, make my day"

Then leave.....

Then sign up for locums in some backwater... South Dakota needs MDs... and it's safer...

INDY

Posted by: Dr George W. Oprisko | Apr 1 2020 0:42 utc | 139

NEW: CA has 6,932 positive cases of #COVID19. 1,617 of those who have tested positive are in our hospitals. 657 of those patients are in the ICU. Over the next few weeks we expect these numbers to increase. This disease can impact anyone. Stay home. Take this seriously. — Gavin Newsom (@GavinNewsom) March 31, 2020

For the deniers - do the math on those numbers. Around 20-25 percent are in hospital. Around 9-10 percent are in ICU. Once you're in ICU, your prognosis is not great - depending on your immune system and overall health, perhaps around half will die.

All this "are the overall mortality numbers greater" is so much bullcrap intended to distract from the percentages of people who are actually ill who are actually dying. All this "did they die from other causes" is also so much bullcrap. What matters is 1) would these people be alive if they hadn't caught the virus? and 2) would these people have died if they caught the *normal* flu that didn't ravage their lungs and stimulate their immune system to the point of organ failure? No one can be sure about the latter point, but the evidence does point to this virus being much deadlier than ordinary flu. So that "co-mordbidity" bullcrap falls apart and proves once again that the arguer has a hidden agenda based on cognitive dissonance (not to mention all symptoms of being a troll.)

As for aerosols vs other means of transmission, a doctor in New York held a group chat. He works in the ICU of one of New York's major hospitals with 1,200 beds. He's the guy that decides whether you go on a ventilator. That hospital, he said, does everything - heart transplants, whatever. *None* of that is being done now. It's all COVID-19. He claims, based on what real evidence I can't say and he didn't say, that most of the cases he sees results from people being in extended contact (20-30 minutes or more) with other people and with people who touch things that you then touch - and then you touch your eyes, nose or mouth. Not aerosols. Again, can he be sure? Probably not. He doesn't see the cases that *don't* get as far as his ICU.

Based on the articles I posted in an earlier thread, aerosols and droplets can go varying distances based on temperature and humidity, and they last on surfaces a mostly unknown period of time also based on temperature/humidity.

I also posted an article on various mask types in an earlier thread which suggested that any mask is better than no mask, but anything other than a properly sealed N95 provides less than optimum protection. Fit and seal quality is apparently significantly important, although perhaps more so with gasses than droplets. So again, YMMV.

So you pays your money and you takes your choice. Staying away from people helps with both methods of transmission. How much risk you are in when you go out and walk the streets is completely unknown. But why risk it if you have a mask?

Thanks to whoever posted that AliExpress link for Chinese mask sellers. I probably will buy some when the Social Security check comes in end of this week. I'm also considering buying some of these disposable food service gloves to deal with touching the hall john every time I have to pee.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 1 2020 0:44 utc | 140

@Posted by: vk | Apr 1 2020 0:08 utc | 139:

That’s the kind of double talk that makes me want to see unambiguous evidence.

Posted by: David G | Apr 1 2020 0:49 utc | 141

USA is in full-scale propaganda war against China right now.

I have no doubt that the plan was always to blame China as USA slow-walked the virus response so that they could gin up a 'national emergency', bailout Wall Street and favored corporations, assist Big Pharma looting, and kill off some old folks that cost health insurers a lot of money.

It's as bad as Russiagate.

And people who insist that they are skeptical of government are blind to the misdirection.

<> <> <> <> <>

Reminder: I've covered this on my blog.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Apr 1 2020 0:55 utc | 142

websites like the Hill, Consortium News, Strategic Culture and even here keep saying that this pandemic will set the stage for a people movement or something that will eventually move American away from a corporate oligarchy towards something more like a "normal country" (normal presumably meaning more like a European form of government). I hate to say it, but no, this feels more like the start of another Russian Market liberalization ala 1991, double digit unemployment, declining wages, lower living standards, shorter life spans and hyper-concentration of wealth which will drag on for a decade or two.

For a people's movement to succeed democratically (i.e. without a violent revolution), it needs to be lead by uncompromising firebrands with great ideas that force the mainstream political establishment to "adopt" some of these good ideas and implement them in order to steal the thunder of the reformers. That's simply not going to happen in the US, Canada, UK, France or Germany, the political establishments of these countries are hopelessly corrupt and in the pocket of the MIC, they will not adopt any reforms, because the political-economic triangulation they use to create party identity and government coalitions cannot be reform without breaking the triangulation that makes their existence possible.

A more likely result is that the continuing disconnect between being nominally democratic and the actual policy behaviour of the mainstream parties will lead to a overthrow of Democratic process. These "Democratic" countries will still call themselves democratic (and condemn their enemies as authoritarian). Yet they will be Democratic only in the sense that people "vote" on approved candidates and that the actual winner will be determined through opaque processes (unauditable voting machines, unclear voting registration, voter busing, identity/ethnic politics, etc...), in essence, all parties will cheat and the best cheater will win. This will continue until the system runs out of the political legitimacy necessary for the political elite to govern society, as which point states like the UK, Canada, the US and perhaps Germany breakup or decentralize into smaller, more accountable political units, a process that will be messy and possibly violent.

The bottom line is that for the vast majority of the populations in these countries the next 10 years at least will be thoroughly unpleasant and people between the ages of 20-40 will have their most productive years squandered in a hopeless effort to bail out their corrupt political leadership's financial donors.

Posted by: Kadath | Apr 1 2020 0:55 utc | 143

@149: that should be: many people who insist they are skeptical ...

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Apr 1 2020 0:58 utc | 144

Kadath @150

I think your on the right track.

It seems that TPTB are just continuing the push to transform America from democracy to neo-feudalism.

And those slated for peasantry seem clueless to what is happening.

<> <> <> <> <> <>

Stockholm syndrome: the new love that dare not speak its name.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Apr 1 2020 1:05 utc | 145

The alibaba link posted by A User looks to be dust masks. Better than nothing though.
This page has the search results for FPP2 which is the European equivalent of the KN95 N95 ect.
https://www.aliexpress.com/wholesale?catId=0&initiative_id=SB_20200331171354&origin=y&SearchText=FPP2+mask

My contact told me there were plenty of FPP2 masks in China but not many KN95.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 1 2020 1:17 utc | 146

PeterAU @145:

Perhaps it wouldn't be far off the mark to say that they're all police states, but that wrt COVID-19 they demonstrate varying degrees of concern for the well-being of their populations? China scores high according to that metric; France scores much lower; the USA doesn't even score as high as the bottom of the scale, demonstrating gleeful contempt toward its own population.

Posted by: corvo | Apr 1 2020 1:27 utc | 147

re masks

This from Virologist at Unz Review. I cannot verify the data, but is worth mentioning:

by Marc Wathelet article https://www.unz.com

..."Let’s remember the difference between isolation (or surgical) masks and the famous N95/FFP2 masks. The first wave in Wuhan the medical staff was short of FFP2, all the photos show them with surgical masks; result: 3,000 infected medical staff. The Chinese government sends reinforcements, 42,000 medical personnel equipped with FFP2; result: zero infection out of 42,000!"...

FFP2 is EU equivalent to N95. The above seems significant.

Posted by: chu teh | Apr 1 2020 1:29 utc | 148

The New Yorker has an excellent article for the uninformed on the plight of Americans who are really struggling to survive and how this virus is exposing so much of what is wrong with America. I suggest everyone read it and get enlightened.

Oh and by the way: the article has the best title I've seen this year so far!

Reality Has Endorsed Bernie Sanders

Here's an excerpt, but please take the time to read it all. My [...] indicate text missing/not copied from article.:

[...Read the beginning in the Article linked below.]

But the danger of contracting the coronavirus will hardly be the problem of the poor and working class alone. Those who, because of poverty and insecurity, are most vulnerable to infection also have disproportionate contact with the broader public, through their low-wage retail and service work. Consider the plight of the home health-care worker. Millions of such workers attend to a largely elderly and homebound population for meagre hourly wages and often without health insurance. In 2018, home health-care workers, eighty-seven per cent of whom are women and sixty per cent of whom are black or Latino, made an average of about eleven dollars and fifty cents an hour. These workers are the sinews of our society: they must work to insure that our society continues to function, even as that work poses potential threats to their clients and the general public. Their insecurity, combined with the failure of meaningful action by the federal government, will make the suppression of the virus nearly impossible.

Thus far, the Trump Administration has predictably bungled the response to the coronavirus. But the Democratic Party’s response has been hampered by its shared hostility to unleashing the power of the state, through the advance of vast universal programs, to attend to an unprecedented, devolving catastrophe. About half of American workers receive health insurance through their employer. As job losses mount, millions of workers will lose their insurance while the public-health crisis surges. In the last Democratic debate, former Vice-President Joe Biden insisted that the U.S. doesn’t need single-payer health care because the severity of the coronavirus outbreak in Italy proved that it doesn’t work. Strangely, he simultaneously insisted that all testing and treatment of the virus should be free because we are in crisis. This insistence that health care should only be free in an emergency reveals a profound ignorance about the ways that preventive medicine can mitigate the harshest effects of an acute infection. By mid-February, a Chinese government study of that country’s coronavirus-related deaths found that those with preëxisting conditions accounted for at least a third of all covid-19 fatalities.

Dismissing the necessity of universal health care also shows an obliviousness to the power of medical expenses to alter the course of one’s life. Two-thirds of Americans who file for bankruptcy say that medical debt or losing work while they were sick contributed to their need to do so.

[...read what I didn't post here; it's all good.]

The crisis is laying bare the brutality of an economy organized around production for the sake of profit and not human need. The logic that the free market knows best can be seen in the prioritization of affordability in health care as millions careen toward economic ruin. It is seen in the ways that states have been thrown into frantic competition with one another for personal protective equipment and ventilators—the equipment goes to whichever state can pay the most. It can be seen in the still criminally slow and inefficient and inconsistent testing for the virus. It is found in the multi-billion-dollar bailout of the airline industry, alongside nickel-and-dime means tests to determine which people might be eligible to receive ridiculously inadequate public assistance.

The argument for resuming a viable social-welfare state is about not only attending to the immediate needs of tens of millions of people but also reëstablishing social connectivity, collective responsibility, and a sense of common purpose, if not common wealth. In an unrelenting and unemotional way, covid-19 is demonstrating the vastness of our human connection and mutuality. Our collectivity must be borne out in public policies that repair the friable welfare infrastructure that threatens to collapse beneath our social weight. A society that allows hundreds of thousands of home health-care workers to labor without health insurance, that keeps school buildings open so that black and brown children can eat and be sheltered, that allows millionaires to stow their wealth in empty apartments while homeless families navigate the streets, that threatens eviction and loan defaults while hundreds of millions are mandated to stay inside to suppress the virus, is bewildering in its incoherence and inhumanity.

[...ditto]

The Sanders campaign was an entry point to this discussion. It has shown public appetite, even desire, for vast spending and new programs. These desires did not translate into votes because they seemed like a risky endeavor when the consequence was four more years of Trump. But the mushrooming crisis of covid-19 is changing the calculus. As federal officials announce new trillion-dollar aid packages daily, we can never go back to banal discussions of “How will we pay for it?” How can we not? Now is a moment to remake our society anew.

reality-has-endorsed-bernie-sanders

And Reality is the best endorsement of all.

Posted by: Circe | Apr 1 2020 2:13 utc | 149

BTW, Belorus was placed on the list of countries that heroically defy "corona virus delusion" and refuse to undertake "necessary measures". For some reasons, the number of cases in this bucolic nook of Europe remains small, so lockdown indeed seems premature. In Russia it was done only in areas with larger number of cases. Lukashenka also did not close the borders, rather symbolic as all neighbors did.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Apr 1 2020 2:14 utc | 150

Where is psychohistorian?

Posted by: Lozion | Mar 31 2020 18:14 utc | 5

I only have time for lurking for the next 3 months as I remodel my newly acquired retirement home so I can live in it...roofs, bathroom and electrical issues............... but I will make it happen.

None yet in this thread have written much about what a movement b writes about would look like.

What sort of a society do you want to live and raise your grandkids in? Since this thread is about health care then maybe the movement decides to what extent health care is a right and provided by the government and what parts of health care should be privately provided to those that can afford such.

As I, commenter ben and others write about mixed economies, it is core services like health care, education, communications, roads, water, fire and police protection, sewer service, garbage collection and management....and yes, even finance needs to be discussed as to the public versus private effects on society.

Health care is a stupid place to have profit in the middle of, IMO

Posted by: psychohistorian | Apr 1 2020 2:28 utc | 151

Circe @159: Reality Has Endorsed Bernie Sanders

Sadly, Bernie hasn't return the favor.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Apr 1 2020 2:28 utc | 152

Bernie argues for what's right...

... then ignores the reality of Democratic Party politics (loyalty pledges, in-the-tank media, etc.).

As a long-time politician and 'friend' of the most powerful Democratics, there's no doubt that Bernie knows what he's doing. And he's done this sheepdog service TWICE now.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Apr 1 2020 2:33 utc | 153

Kadath @ 150 said;"I hate to say it, but no, this feels more like the start of another Russian Market liberalization ala 1991, double digit unemployment, declining wages, lower living standards, shorter life spans and hyper-concentration of wealth which will drag on for a decade or two."

And I hate to agree, but, I believe you're right..

Jrabbit @ 152 said;"It seems that TPTB are just continuing the push to transform America from democracy to neo-feudalism."

"And those slated for peasantry seem clueless to what is happening."

Yep! And the red-baiting continues..

<> <> <> <> <> <>

Stockholm syndrome: "the new love that dare not speak its name." Yes, evident in the latest "poll" numbers about our present regime. So sad...

Posted by: ben | Apr 1 2020 2:42 utc | 154

Jrabbit @ 163: You're RIGHT, I cannot refuse to acknowledge reality. Damn shame though.

Posted by: ben | Apr 1 2020 2:47 utc | 155

Jackrabbit @162:

Oh, I think Bernie Sanders has endorsed reality. I just wish he'd endorse Bernie Sanders.

Posted by: corvo | Apr 1 2020 2:59 utc | 156

@125 A User - Many thanks for the aliexpress link!

@153 Peter AU1

It's way cheaper than Amazon for sure. I just ordered some of the cheaper N95 masks - less than $5 USD each and says will ship from US (where I am) through USPS within 4-7 days. They also have PM 2.5 replacement filters which can be used in homemade masks. They seem to have a lot of stocks of everything available.

I'll see what arrives and when and I'll circle back through an open thread to confirm satisfaction. "A User" is New Zealand I believe and seems happy with service and I can believe it. All looks good so far.

Might as well share my favorite homemade mask video, very nice and calming music, will take PM2.5 filter (was going to use vacuum cleaner bag material, probably won't have to now):
How to make Easy Face Mask In 1 Minute - No Sewing! Washable, Reusable Face Mask [YouTube]

Posted by: Grieved | Apr 1 2020 3:01 utc | 157

OK i'm sure that those moa habitues who do watch the occasional TV drama would never consider watching a show about the invasion of Iraq & subsequent regime change which was produced anywhere near usuk.
That on the basis of the zionist propaganda posing as entertainment would be a fair call.

I mention this because Monday night when I finally got home I was exhausted wanted to watch something to switch off and all I could find was an englander TV show called Baghdad Central, allegedly a semi-noir type detective yarn set in Iraq late 2003 featuring a 'hard boiled' detective who happened to be Iraqi.
As I put it on I was concerned that the racism & petty humiliations of the Iraqi people would anger me into wide awakeness before the lame plot lulled me to sleep - but it was all that was original which appeared to be on offer.
I didn't cop a kip for quite a few hours, not because I was angry, but because I was entranced by Waleed Zuaiter's performance as a man who suddenly finds his home is no longer the decent honourable society whose love of poetry isn't that of a one of a kind eccentric, such as Horace Rumpole, but that of everyman, an intrinsic part of a culture that is destroyed in front of his eyes.
It is impossible to watch this series and not conclude that the invasion of Iraq was a crime against humanity. Which is why that zionist rag, the Times, sledged it so badly while praising the performance of an englander actor Bertie Carvel, a performance that was to me by the numbers compared to that of Zuaiter, an actor who was only known to USuk audiences for a few turns as a 2d 'terrorist'.

This is a detective yarn, 'noir' if you insist, but Inspector Muhsin Kadr al-Khafaji is mos def an Iraqi inspector who whose resemblence to Sam Spade or Philip Marlowe exists but his concerns are based on rather different (I reckon more honourable values).
Why am I saying this? Because many of us are stuck under lockdown & unless you have been able to jag an exemption to assist other more vulnerable humans as we have, you are stuck inside with SFA to do, so I have grabbed all six episodes rar'd them into an archive 'Trans.rar' available here.
The 6 episodes are viewable on a computer or smart tv once extracted from the rar.
7zip an open source compression & extraction program which will get you the files from the rar can be obtained here. Sorry about the hassle but the alternative would have been to put them into a self extracting archive but that would mean running an unknown program, e.g. an 'exe' in windows.
This way you can scan the rar extract it safely using a well known app which is much safer on an android, linux, or windows.
Otherwise the complete series is available on torrent & usenet sides which I suggest you should do if you want a higher resolution.

So take a break from arguing the number of angels can fit on a pinhead and relax with a decent entertaining drama for a bit.

Posted by: A User | Apr 1 2020 3:12 utc | 158

"Survivors of covid-19 will have developed immunity for at least a year."

Where's the evidence for this, b? I haven't heard any expert say this, not Michael Osterholm, Paul Wathelet, Anthony Fauci. Would be nice if it were true. Then we could feel more comfortable about the outcome of this pandemic.

Posted by: jadan | Apr 1 2020 3:19 utc | 159

Piotr Berman @ 157:

I read Witkacy's novel "Insatiability" in its English-language translation many years ago. It was very long and from what I remember, very surreal. There was a theme about Poland being invaded by neo-Mongols from China but that had to be read as metaphor, not literally. I believe Witkacy committed suicide not long after Germany invaded Poland in September 1939; perhaps he realised that what he wrote in "Insatiability" and other works, intended as warning, had become prophecy.

Posted by: Jen | Apr 1 2020 3:22 utc | 160

Psychohistorian @ 161:

Didn't B say once on a past post that he wished that Putin were more socialist than the Russian president currently is? Can't remember what post it was but it was some years ago.

Posted by: Jen | Apr 1 2020 3:25 utc | 161

NY Times Creates ‘Alternative Universe’ to Bash China’s Disease Reporting System - Journo

“After doctors in Wuhan began treating clusters of patients stricken with a mysterious pneumonia in December, the reporting was supposed to have been automatic. Instead, hospitals deferred to local health officials who, over a political aversion to sharing bad news, withheld information about cases from the national reporting system - keeping Beijing in the dark and delaying the response,” the Times article claims.

“The central health authorities first learned about the outbreak not from the reporting system, but after unknown whistle-blowers leaked two internal documents online,” the article claims.

However, according to Noh, the Times fails to take into account the complexity of the reporting system.

“In this system, you get into trouble if you don’t report - not if you report. So that assertion that somehow the Chinese didn’t report because they were trying to cover their rear, it doesn’t make any sense,” Noh told hosts Brian Becker and John Kiriakou.

“This is an epidemic out of the blue. There is no blame to be apportioned for this … China has had a national reporting system since the 1950s, and since that period, the detection rate has improved 56-fold, so it’s constantly getting better. One of the reasons why they put it in is because China was subject to biowarfare by the US during the Korean War - and this has been extensively documented. But, this automated system is called CIDARS - the China Infectious Disease Alert Reporting System - and it's coordinated with another system called the NIDARS - that’s the national reporting system - and the way that it works is if there’s a case, you diagnose it,” Noh explained.

Noh noted that diagnosis itself is key, because if the illness hasn’t been diagnosed, it doesn’t get reported.

“There are 6,000 stations reporting this information, and if every single one of them would report anything that came up to them, there would be so much noise in the system that it would be impossible to discern anything,” he noted.

After this guy explained the basics of how the Chinese system works, and how a pandemic works, I hope the noise about the evil CCP covering up things to finally go to the garbage bin of History, where they belong.

--//--

@ Posted by: David G | Apr 1 2020 0:49 utc | 148

"Excess death" is not an official statistic, and its extremely hard to collect. In the USA, for example, the government was only able to notice there was an opiate crisis on a societal level after three consecutive years of fall in American life expectancy, and only after a lot of crossing statistics and causes and investigation. And that was after 200,000 deaths (all of which were immediate, i.e. overdose, not even "excess" as in life expectancy shortening).

It's not as simple as it sounds: just because it happened to you or to your family or to your neighborhood or to your city it doesn't mean it is a nationwide problem. Perception is not always the truth (and it almost never is the whole truth). It's hard to manage a whole country - specially a big one like China or the USA.

Posted by: vk | Apr 1 2020 3:30 utc | 162

@168 A User

Thanks - downloading now!

At your Rotten Tomatoes link I notice most of the reviews cite Zuaiter's outstanding performance, while both of the so-called "top critics" from the Times quoted are cold to it, as you mention.

The second "top critic" actually is quoted as saying: "I can see this noir is well done, but I'm not sure I have the stomach for a whole series."

Oh, Fleet Street - street of shame indeed.

Posted by: Grieved | Apr 1 2020 3:30 utc | 163

Been following a medical view direct from front lines:
Ongoing, page 1 of 7

Clinical Pearls Covid 19 for ER practitioners


https://texags.com/forums/84/topics/3102444/1

Posted by: chu teh | Apr 1 2020 3:32 utc | 164

Make no mistake.

COVID-19 will be the American Evil Empire's Chernobyl moment.

The Invisible Bug That Killed an Empire
https://journal-neo.org/2020/03/30/the-invisible-bug-that-killed-an-empire/

Coupled with this pandemic is the looming end of America's PetroDollar Dictatorship--which is what Russia's "oil price war" with Saudi Arabia is ultimately about.

Russia’s Exit from OPEC+: How Moscow Is Killing the Petrodollar
https://www.stalkerzone.org/russias-exit-from-opec-how-moscow-is-killing-the-petrodollar/

Oil price war will expedite the end of petrodollar & rise of Chinese-Russian currency– RT’s Max Keiser
https://www.rt.com/business/482691-kaiser-oil-price-petrodollar-end/

And with the end of the US PetroDollar, you have the implosion of America's unipolar world empire--and with that, the American Way of Life™ itself.

As Vladimir Putin once stated, the US PetroDollar system allows America to be a *parasite* on the global economy by devouring enormous amounts of goods from the rest of the world in exchange for worthless US toilet paper/dollars, while also exporting inflation to the rest of the world. (All the while, Americans pathetically whine like a nation of entitled bitches about "foreigners stealing our jobs.")

Putin says U.S. is "parasite" on global economy
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-putin-usa/putin-says-u-s-is-parasite-on-global-economy-idUSTRE77052R20110801

America: Host Or Parasite? - Michael Hudson, #121
https://soundcloud.com/guns-and-butter-1/2051-20070314-guns-and-butter

America is sick alright, but it ain't only from COVID-19.

America is a sick parasite with a militant sense of its own entitlement.

It is all part of the USA's warped national religion called American Supremacy (aka American Exceptionalism).

The more America rapes, loots, exploits, bombs, regime changes, or invades other nations, the more Americans invert reality and present themselves as morally righteous victims who are "threatened" by foreign Evil-Doers.

The only question now is this: Driven by this inbred sense of entitlement, will Americans launch a catastrophic world war to maintain their unipolar world order?

If so, America will experience a cataclysm far surpassing the COVID-19 pandemic.

Posted by: ak74 | Apr 1 2020 3:39 utc | 165

Anyone ever wanted proof of what an evil empire looks like should check out how amerika not content with irradiating & killing thousands of indigenous inhabitants of the North Western Pacific during nuke testing, is now intent on wiping the remaining population of the Mariannas Islands & Guam out with covid 19.
Eagle eyes with decent memories may have noticed that the covid 19 infected crew of the aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt is going to dock in Guam.
Apparently Guam is the carrier's 'home base'
This piece here in the graun informs:

"A very worrying report out of the Pacific region now.

The Northern Mariana Islands, which is a US commonwealth in the north Pacific, has seen its first coronavirus-related death – a 70-year-old man. The commonwealth now has six confirmed cases of coronavirus and officials warn there is evidence of community transmission.

This brings the Pacific region’s death toll to three. Two people have died in Guam, which is located just to the south of the Northern Marianas. . . .

. . .There are grave fears for the Pacific region in relation to coronavirus.

So far, there have been a relatively low number of cases across the Pacific, but in many of Pacific countries and territories, health systems are very weak and doctors struggle to have the resources to deal with even ordinary illnesses. There are fears that if the virus reached pandemic levels in these countries, the death toll would be huge."

amerika 'liberated' all the islands north of Guam during ww2. They are colonies of amerika denied the right to vote as amerikans do. We should not be surprised as Guam, like the Philippines was grabbed from Spain following the spanish-amerikan war, unlike the philippines it has never been entrusted with the ersatz freedom the philippines got.
Guam has been a nuke base since the late '40's and now the people have been hit with a virulent disease by amerikan military but no one knows how badly since neither Guam nor the Mariannas have health facilities which could determine this.
The wannabe murderers for empire on the uss roosevelt will eventually be looked after, unlike the innocents these 'sailors' infected.

Posted by: A User | Apr 1 2020 3:43 utc | 166

@ Jen | Apr 1 2020 3:25 utc | 171 who asked if b ever commented about the relative socialism of Putin.

I don't recall anything specifically.

Russia is another example of where their mixed economy is different than other nations. Look at the difference in the social safety net available in various parts of the world, including health care.

What Americans are going to see fairly starkly is that US government exists now to service the elite and not the public. Will the American public do anything about it?

Too soon to tell. We need more dead bodies to make failure to serve the public more obvious and maybe that will occur in another couple of weeks or a month.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Apr 1 2020 3:44 utc | 167

@172 vk

The hair-trigger disease alert system that China created had one weak link in the chain, in that regional officials were able to delay (but not stop) the alarm sounding to Beijing. The first thing Beijing did when it learned of the Wuhan event was to fire the Wuhan Director of Public Health, and then to create a CDC hotline that now bypasses local authorities system-wide.

Godfree Roberts detailed this over at Unz Review in his last piece ("Last Man Standing", March 22).

As I pointed out somewhere, the Chinese Communist Party is a meritocratic learning mechanism. The very thought of having such a thing for one's system of governance feels like a cool rain in the desert, but I'm afraid here in the US all we have is dry sand.

Posted by: Grieved | Apr 1 2020 3:49 utc | 168

https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/
Posted by: Gary | Mar 31 2020 20:18 utc | 55

bye gary, lol...
Posted by: james | Mar 31 2020 20:20 utc | 56

James, have you read that swprs article yet? It has been posted before. If you read it, you'll appreciate how incredibly stupid and arrogant that response of yours was.

The swprs article is not an MSM fake news article, nor government/spy agency propaganda/misinformation, nor is it corporate misinformation, and nor is it crackpot misinformation. It is serious and educated medical science. It includes a wealth of links to hard data that back up its claims (including eye-opening reports published by the Italian goverment that bare the reality of those Italian deaths to be seen that has so far been obfuscated by the lying MSM and Western governments). It includes links to esteemed scientists who take issue with the consensus panic porn.

PLEASE DO NOT BELIEVE ME JAMES, in what I write above! Instead, follow the above link and read the article for yourself with an open mind.

Please do not believe the article either! Instead study it carefully against your prior experience, follow and read the links, and consider it carefully with an open mind, before reaching conclusions.

Please do not believe the "esteemed scientists" either - after all, there are "esteemed scientists" who are willing to say anything if it benefits them, as well as esteemed scientists who will give an unpopular view they honestly believe in. Instead, examine carefully what they say, try to understand their point of view and why they articulate it, and try your best to reach a balanced overall view of the arguments as a whole, and whether they appear to conflict with reality as a whole, or supplement it. For that is the only way to get anywhere approaching the truth, in this world.

If you do that, James, you will be shocked. For you've been had. You've been manipulated. You've been exploited.

Posted by: BM | Apr 1 2020 3:54 utc | 169

So much argument over whether its the load or the straw that breaks the camels back. The load is perhaps a heart issue which a person could live with for many years. That person contracts coronavirus and dies...

It doesn't matter if coronavirus is the only health issue or a straw placed on top of a load, it is the coronavirus that causes death.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 1 2020 4:09 utc | 170

re Peter AU1 | Apr 1 2020 1:17 utc | 153
If you had looked at my link properly you would have seen that the listings go across many pages and includes all face masks listed, not just the current consumerist driven demand for N95 which if they are genuine n95's are useless for most people. especially those who do not have covid 19 as they are virtually impossible to breathe thru. If you have that lergy use n95 although you will struggle even more to get oxygen you will not infect others with your breath - if you can keep the damned thing on which is not easy.
Many listed as N95 contain the correct filter but are improperly constructed, so I elected to leave the specifics out for people to decide for themselves.
If people really want a proper hospital grade protection the terminology is respirator.
All types including KN95 can be found here, I must warn though that many people especially older humans with compromised lungs esp former smokers, will not be able to wear an N95 respirator for long at all. I have found it better to use something which gives some protection but doesn't inhibit breathing.

Posted by: A User | Apr 1 2020 4:22 utc | 171

Peter AU1 #180

It doesn't matter if coronavirus is the only health issue or a straw placed on top of a load, it is the coronavirus that causes death.

Yes it matters IMMENSELY to the extent that we humans benefit from 'informed opinions'. That's why the bar here is crowded with people right now. Classifying the dead as 'died with' or 'died of' is a mighty significant issue.

I have a medical condition that kills. Not many but quite a lot. Most people who have the condition, die 'with' that condition , not because of it. A reasonable few where it advances uncontrollably either have their skull opened up and a surgeon swish around with a scalpel and get it cut out, then convalesce for a long time and move on or die of complications. If it is left growing uncontrollably it simply fills the brain cavity and dislodges the brain from the stem. Remember most who have this affliction take it to their grave because of the normal aging process.

The death rate from this little quirk of nature is high enough for anyone to make a public panic of it. Managed pandemonium is easily achieved. But that does not happen in these cases and recent innovations have rendered the surgical approach obsolete in countries that can afford some flash kit of nuclear medical technology.

No one made a fuss like this COVID-19 and yet 1 percent of the population have it and mostly it is benign enough to evade detection or not warrant intervention.

Thanks to c1ue who has been badgering for and posting the real data as proportion of population. I would like to see some random post mortem on those USA deaths back in July, August, September etc so we can more certainly locate point of origin and cause. THAT is serious epidemiological approach. Not bland numbers extracted from categorisation or point of reference.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Apr 1 2020 4:43 utc | 172

BM #179

Please don't piss on the trolls and their sprouts as to them is is fertiliser.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Apr 1 2020 4:47 utc | 173

Grieved #178

As I pointed out somewhere, the Chinese Communist Party is a meritocratic learning mechanism. The very thought of having such a thing for one's system of governance feels like a cool rain in the desert, but I'm afraid here in the US all we have is dry sand.

Thanks, I'll drink to that and add that there is a lot of wind behind that sand. Sigh, I grieve for the USA. May its people survive and remember. I went to The Atlantic today to see what they had to say on the Trump/Putin phone chat. Nearly threw up my breakfast, what a f'ing stupid rag and a blithering idiot story pumping 'hate russia, hate russia'. Fortunately I don't read much of the USA press as its just co-opted propaganda.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Apr 1 2020 4:54 utc | 174

@ Posted by: vk | Apr 1 2020 3:30 utc | 172:

Before, you said excess deaths were a statistic that only becomes available after the pandemic is over (“obviously”, for some reason). Now you say it isn’t a statistic at all.

I’m backing out of your troll cave. Good bye.

Posted by: David G | Apr 1 2020 4:59 utc | 175

Saudi Arabia sends Covid aid to Yemen. Only bonesaw man could sink to these depths.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Apr 1 2020 5:05 utc | 176

@Posted by: David G | Apr 1 2020 4:59 utc | 185

It is a statistic, but not an official one. Don't understand the difficulty in comprehending such simple logic.

Posted by: vk | Apr 1 2020 5:31 utc | 177

uncle tungsten

What was the point of your post. As in why does it matter immensely. You didn't actualy get to that point.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 1 2020 5:46 utc | 178

This is the title of b's piece. "U.S. Virus Cases Are Off The Scale - But Its People Can Build A Movement From This"

Wont happen here that's for sure. Everyone I know are blaming China Iraq Iran whatever for kicking off this bug. All believing the bullshit the US has been pumping out which is parroted by the media here.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 1 2020 5:51 utc | 179

Wont happen here that's for sure.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 1 2020 5:51 utc | 189

I entirely agree, unfortunately. There is a 911 event happening here. What is worse, most people who read that assertion will dogmatically cling to the meaning of 911 claimed by the US government, rather than it's deeper and truer meaning. Even here on MoA! What a shame for MoA.

Posted by: BM | Apr 1 2020 6:14 utc | 180

I'm in chicago and we are supposed to be in lock down, most people are going to work except restaurant workers mkds are still open you can go in and sit down eat, noone is wearing masks. I saw one guy at store wearing one and people where looking at him like a creep. I guess since we are middle of the USA people still think it will just like miss us?

Posted by: Bob burger | Apr 1 2020 6:16 utc | 181

I'm still not getting it...juxtaposed against seasonal flu deaths and previous 'pandemics' the illness simply doesn't warrant the hysterical, society-killing response. It looks more and more to me like a massive, propaganda driven 'smash and grab' raid on the working and middle classes..

https://richardhennerley.com/2020/03/29/the-new-crown-virus-a-coronavirus-parable/

Posted by: Richard | Apr 1 2020 6:35 utc | 182

Apr 1 2020 4:47 utc | 182

I catch nearly all your posts. You are wise.

re med condition. . As a close spouse, I learned some from late wife's experiences.
I've a list of friends who have "gone on". They pioneered the way for me. It is some comfort. No one gets out of here alive.

After such a sobering #182, Your # 183 preciously nailed it...with fertilizing trolls. That's some tight composition.

Then #186 abt SA sinking to send aid to Yemen. Less and less am I surprised by life.

Posted by: chu teh | Apr 1 2020 7:05 utc | 183

The piece at the swiss propaganda site "A Swiss Doctor on Covid-19"

Who is the Swiss Doctor.

There is a little test at the bottom of this page to see if you have been taken in by Russian propaganda. https://swprs.org/russian-propaganda/

They also direct people to sites that uncover Russian propaganda.
Western projects on Russian propaganda: DisinfoPortal (US / Atlantic Council), EU vs­ Dis­info (European Union), BellingCat (United Kingdom), StopFake (Ukraine), FactFinder (Germany)

Self diagnose with the little test these clowns have put up, and as most here will test positive to being influenced by Russian propaganda, you can then go to the websites they have listed.
I wonder if the followers of the anonymous doc will all be trooping off to read bellingcrap's or atlantic councils take on things.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 1 2020 8:40 utc | 185

99 American Navy on leave and on ship are widely known for not just spreading diseases. There's also the murder, the rape, solicitation of prostitutes where it is illegal the drunken debauchery,and general abuse of locals etc. Lovely Navy to visit your Port!

Posted by: Abu Aisha | Apr 1 2020 9:14 utc | 186

Posted by: Circe | Mar 31 2020 20:20 utc | 58
".... what this pandemic is exposing in Western countries is that
healthcare and healthcare workers are neglected all around....'

Sending healthcare workers into battle against this virus with just a mask; gloves and a plastic apron is like sending firemen to fight a fire in their city clothes.

But of course, that would be how to do things if you are a "normal nation" practising "western values" that all other nations, especially Iran, Russia, China ought to copy !!! LOL

Posted by: kiwiklown | Apr 1 2020 9:34 utc | 187

Posted by: Likklemore | Mar 31 2020 22:35 utc | 105

First, they send you into war with a mask, gloves, and a plastic apron.
Then they fire you for talking about hazardous work conditions.
I would rather be fired under those circumstances.
Better to live to fight another day than to die like a fireman sent to fight a fire in my city clothes.

And they have now classified all leadership discussions on covid19.
They are "national security" secrets now.
What do they know which they do not want us to know?
Do we have to wait 50 years to find out, just like those JFK Papers?

Posted by: kiwiklown | Apr 1 2020 9:49 utc | 189

Self diagnose with the little test these clowns have put up
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 1 2020 8:40 utc | 195

Thanks for that reference to the Russian-Propaganda page, it adds an important side-note to the Swiss Doctor page, and I will say straight out that I felt uncomfortable reading the page with it's unbalanced insinuations. Nevertheless, your above statement is doubly disingenuous. The Russian Propaganda page is written by a different person from the Swiss Doctor page, and it is disingenuous to directly equate one with the other. It is also disingenuous to directly equate readers of one page with readers of another quite different page. To describe that as unhelpful and unconstructive towards an understanding of the Covid-19 phenomenon in all its many facets would be an understatement.

As I suggested to James at 179 above, it is more helpful to view the whole of the Swiss Doctor page in its entirety, with its linked articles, and judge it for internal consistency and external consistency with one's own direct experience, and draw an inference for oneself about how believeable or otherwise it is. There is no other way that can come close to the truth, in this complex world of competing information sources. As to the Russian Propaganda page and the insidious insinuations contained within it's 'questionaire', that page should indeed form a (small, I say) part in the evaluation of the Swiss Doctor page, but it muts also be borne in mind that any organisation on this planet of more than one person is composed of a range of different people with a range of different views, opinions, biases, positive points and negative points. To dismiss an entire organisation just because we take exception to one single member is unbalanced and unproductive - doing so we would soon find ourselves utterly isolated and alone against the rest of the world.

As counterbalance to the Russian Propaganda page please look at these pages here and here, which clearly show that the Russian Propaganda page is not all we need to know about that site as a whole.

Instead of trying to dismiss the Swiss Doctor page with disingenuous remarks about a quite different page, why not investigate for yourself one of the most important points asserted (with abundant supporting information) on the Swiss Doctor page, which is that the observed (Italian government published) cross-section of Covid-19 deaths in Lombardy correlates remarkably well with a cross-section of death from natural causes (extreme old age) when subjected to a very tiny additional superimposed pressure? Can you find any robust and verifiable counter-evidence in the MSM, or have you been to the hospitals in Lombardy to see for yourself, during this Covid-19 period?

Or perhaps you think it is unhelpful to have a broad range of opinions and views expressed on MoA, and that it is better to see only MSM-approved mass-concensus views and opinions on MoA? I look forward to your carefully considered response.

Posted by: BM | Apr 1 2020 9:50 utc | 190

There is a 911 event happening here.
Posted by: BM | Apr 1 2020 6:14 utc | 190

I've since found this article wich perfectly expresses what I meant by that statement:

The Propaganda of Terror and Fear: A Lesson from Recent History

Posted by: BM | Apr 1 2020 10:05 utc | 191

Interesting...this is what the Chinese were doing...

Vitamin C may reduce the duration of mechanical ventilation in critically ill patients: a meta-regression analysis
https://jintensivecare.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s40560-020-0432-y

"In five trials including 471 patients requiring ventilation for over 10 h, a dosage of 1–6 g/day of vitamin C shortened ventilation time on average by 25% (P < 0.0001)."

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 1 2020 10:10 utc | 192

Peter AU1 @195

So apparently Swiss Propaganda Research is some sort of research effort to improve Swiss propaganda.

I must say that Swiss propaganda must have been in a very sorry state if they are studying bellingcrap to improve their technique.

Posted by: William Gruff | Apr 1 2020 10:22 utc | 193

BM 201

In this case, due to what we have seen in China, South Korea and Iran not to mention Russia's preparations, there does seem to be a genuine pandemic and a genuine threat. Most western governments seem to have enhanced this by allowing free travel into their countries to ensure the virus takes hold and then declaring lock downs.
A genuine threat to a demographic the powers that be may see as useless eaters and in the case of the US at least bailouts for failed companies and a large transfer of wealth in plain sight.
And the duopoly voters, those who get their news from MSM, which make up the majority in most western countries all going along with this.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 1 2020 10:24 utc | 194

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Mar 31 2020 23:39 utc | 131
"... he was full always full of shit...."

That is one way of describing The Great Pretender,
he of the stiff lower jaw, the better to signal his resolute
belief in the lie he is spinning that very moment.


Posted by: kiwiklown | Apr 1 2020 10:26 utc | 195

This is a good one...

After that France and Germany forbade exports of medical material when we were facing the worst of the crisis and thus we had to rely on China...and after The Netherlands spitted on us to manage on our own and recommended to have been more froesighted in preparations on a pandemic that caight the world by surprise...

"The EU asks Spain to open borders to avoid fruit shortages"

https://twitter.com/EconomiaED_/status/1244707798719627265

Why do they not eat tulips?

We must not open the borders under any circunstances now until the pandemic is controlled in Spain, must keep our fruits and vegetales for ourselves, who are suffering shortages and higher prices because of accumiulation by great malls at the first moments of the mandatory quaratine, and, once all this passes, we should start selling our fruits and vegetales to Russia, Iran or whoever wants to buy them, as we used to do, once we have seen how Trump passes his own sanctions for said part when it is for the US convenience, like now when they need medical supplies.

Posted by: H.Schmatz | Apr 1 2020 10:34 utc | 196

Posted by: King Lear | Mar 31 2020 23:40 utc | 132

And would a sweat shop build bullet trains
when there is none in the Exceptional Indispensable?

And would a shell of its former self build hypersonic missiles
when there is none in the City On The hill?

And is history dead when the US just accepted planeloads
of covid19 gear from Russia and China?

We are living in an inflexion point in the history of the world,
and you say history is dead?

In which kingdom can we find people so blind to
epochal changes happening right in front of our eyes?

Posted by: kiwiklown | Apr 1 2020 10:35 utc | 197

Syrian girl is right on to it.

Ventilators From Palestine with love.

Adversity is the mother of invention.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Apr 1 2020 10:44 utc | 198

It doesn't matter if coronavirus is the only health issue or a straw placed on top of a load, it is the coronavirus that causes death.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 1 2020 4:09 utc | 180

There is an important issue that I have so far not seen any discussion of: Covid-19 and car crashes. As Peter so eloquently puts it, it seems it doesn't matter (hmm?) whether coronavirus is the only health issue or a straw placed on top of a load, if coronavirus is present then it is coronavirus that causes death. Therefore, if a car accident occurs and the driver, after being killed in a crash, on autopsy tests positive for Covid-19, then the driver's death is caused by coronavirus. We surely don't want to worry ourselves with whether the driver had any symptoms, after all, this is Big Brother territory with all that implies. Henceforth the most important factor to determine the cause of death, and who might be responsible for what damages and to whom, should not take into consideration any trivial and irrelevant questions such as whether the driver was drunk, whether he had a valid drivers' licence, whether he was insured, what his religion is, etc, but first and foremost whether he tests positive for Covid-19. What in the world could be more important than that?

But there still remain even more issues than this, for there are second degree implications. Consider what happens when a drunk driver, without driving licence or insurance (naturally), and driving a car known to have faulty brakes, fatally hits a 7 year old school child while driving recklessly. Subsequently he is tested positive for Covid-19. Is the 7-year old child then a covid-19 death? And if so, does this absolve the driver for his more minor features such as being drunk, driving recklessly with faulty brakes, etc? After all, we have firmly established the pre-eminent importance of the Covid-19 test result.

Or consider another example: supposing the US government decides that getting the Boing 737MAX back into service immediately is of utmost priority even before resolving outstanding safety issues; the first flight gets into the the air with 180 passengers and 9 crew on board, and then promptly takes a nose dive and crashes due to upmteen known and unknown safety defects, killing all on board. But there is a problem: the pilot is subsequently tested positive for Covid-19 - therefore are all 189 deaths caused simply by Covid-19? NO no no! They are in fact the first ever DOUBLE-Covid-19 cases, because on investigation it is subsequently established that the FAA official who had signed off on the order putting the MAX back in flight had himself tested positive for Covid-19 the day before signing the order!

(/SARC)

Hmm, maybe we need to rethink our model of causality, don't you think, Peter? Is there a more useful model we could use than loads and last straws?

Posted by: BM | Apr 1 2020 10:46 utc | 199

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 1 2020 0:37 utc | 145
"Under those circumstances the lock down is without end...
well now I simply watch... the idiocy of our white supremist
society that absorbs the messages coming from msm...."

Looking at how 'leaky' the West's "lockdowns are, I am starting to think that, as each "lockdown" fails, it will be followed by another one, and soon, there will be rolling lockdowns rippling across the face of this globe, each one of dubious effectiveness at knocking off this virus.

I am not saying it will be that way, because I do not have all the info that they have, but this is one possibility if I extrapolate from their current performance.

As an example, here in NZ, where we have passed the first week of lockdown, there is confusion as to whether all butchers (being food suppliers) are open, or only some butchers (which?). Then someone asked about halal butchers (wdn't it be oppressive if no halal foods are available?). Farming is classified as essential services, but a lavender farm on a lifestyle block (hobby farm to you Americans) raised a query about a lavender harvest, which would require seasonal workers, and how will they handle that? And so on, ad infinitum....

Posted by: kiwiklown | Apr 1 2020 10:58 utc | 200

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