Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
March 30, 2020

Trump, Putin Will Discuss The End Of U.S. Shale Oil

Three weeks ago, when the Russian and Saudi war on U.S. shale oil started, we wrote:

In the first week of January crude oil reached $69/bl but it has since dropped to $45/bl as the coronavirus crisis destroyed the global demand. The Saudis tried to make a deal with Russia, the second largest exporter after Saudi Arabia, to together cut oil production to keep the price up. But Russia rejected a new OPEC cut. It wants to keep its production up and it will use the crisis to further undermine U.S. oil fracking production. As the whole fracking boom in the U.S. is build on fraud the move might well be successful.

Russia does not have a budget deficit and is well positioned to survive lower crude oil prices without much damage. Saudi Arabia is not.

Only a week later oil was already at $30/barrel and we predicted that it would go down to $20/bl.

On Monday the U.S. WTI oil price index reached that mark. Oil prices in other places are falling even further:

Canadian heavy crude has become so cheap that the cost of shipping it to refineries exceeds the value of the oil itself, a situation that may result in even more oil-sands producers shutting operations.

Western Canadian Select crude in Alberta dropped to a record-low close of $5.06 a barrel on Friday, according to Bloomberg data going back to 2008 ...

The corona virus crisis has led to drop in global demand by some 20%. The world production and consumption in normal times was at about 100 million barrel per day. Consumption is now below 80 million bl/d. But after the OPEC+ agreement failed Saudi and Russia both started to pump as much as they could to regain market shares. Together they are increasing their production by some 3-4 million barrels per day. All that oil has to go somewhere.

Trump announced that he would use the cheap prices to fill the U.S. strategic oil reserve. But the spare room in the reserve storage at that time was only some 150 million barrels. As it can only be filled at a rate of 2 million barrels per day the topping off of the reserve is insignificant in the current market.

The oil producers at first pumped their oil into storage tanks to be sold later. When those filled up they rented supertankers to store the oil at sea. But empty supertankers are now also getting rare and the price for them is increasing:

The CEO of the world’s largest tanker owner, Frontline Ltd., said on Friday that he’d never known such demand to hire ships for long-term storage. Traders could book ships to put 100 million barrels at sea this week alone, he estimated, but even that could accounts for less than a week’s oversupply.

The only solution will be a shut down of the more expensive oil fields. Canada and Brazil are already doing it. U.S. shale producers who are bleeding cash will now have to follow.

That is clearly what Russia wants:

As soon as U.S. shale leaves the market, prices will rebound and could reach $60 a barrel, Rosneft’s Igor Sechin said recently. As fate would have it, in what many would have until recently considered an impossible scenario, a lot of U.S. shale might do just that.

Breakeven prices for U.S. shale basins range between $39 and $48 a barrel, according to data compiled by Reuters. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is trading below $25 a barrel and has been for over a week now.

The Trump administration has asked the Saudis to produce less oil but as the Saudi tourist industry is currently also dead the Saudi clown prince needs every dollar he can get. The Saudis will continue to pump and they will sell their oil at any price.

The White House is now concerned that it will completely lose its beloved shale oil industry and all the jobs connected to it.

Russia of cause knows this and a few days ago it made an interesting offer:

A new OPEC+ deal to balance oil markets might be possible if other countries join in, Kirill Dmitriev, head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund said, adding that countries should also cooperate to cushion the economic fallout from coronavirus.
...
“Joint actions by countries are needed to restore the(global) economy... They (joint actions) are also possible in OPEC+ deal’s framework,” Dmitriev, head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF), told Reuters in a phone interview.
...
“We are in contact with Saudi Arabia and a number of other countries. Based on these contacts we see that if the number of OPEC+ members will increase and other countries will join there is a possibility of a joint agreement to balance oil markets.”

Dmitriev declined to say who the new deal’s members should or could be. U.S. President Donald Trump said last week he would get involved in the oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia at the appropriate time.

A logical new member of an expanded crude oil cartel would be one of the biggest global producer that so far was not a member of that club - the U.S. of A.

We now learn that Trump is ready to talk about that or other concepts:

As Ria reports (in Russian) the topics of upcoming phone call [between Putin and Trump] will be Covid-19, trade (???) and, you guessed it, oil prices.

Trump, who sanctioned the Russian-German Nord-Stream II pipeline while telling Germany to buy U.S. shale gas, is now in a quite bad negotiation position. Russia does not need a new OPEC deal right now. It has many financial reserves and can live with low oil prices for much longer than the Saudis and other oil producing countries. Trump would have to make a strategic offer that Russia could not resist to get some cooperation on oil prices.

But what strategic offer could Trump make that would move Putin to agree to some new deal?

Ukraine? Russia is not interested in that unrulable, bankrupt and fascist infested entity.

Syria? The Zionist billionaires would stop their donations to Trump if he were to give up on destroying it.

Joining an OPEC++ deal and limit U.S. oil production? That would be an anti-American intervention in free markets and Congress would never agree to it.

And what reason has Russia to believe that Trump or his successor would stick to any deal? As the U.S. is non-agreement-capable it has none.

The outcome of the phone call will therefore likely be nothing.

The carnage in the oil markets will continue and will ravage those producer countries that need every penny while the corona virus is ravaging their people. Meanwhile the U.S. shale market will go bust.

Posted by b on March 30, 2020 at 17:25 UTC | Permalink

Comments
« previous page

"Bloomberg reports that Plains All American Pipeline asked its suppliers to scale back production,
and Plains and Enterprise Products Partners is requiring customers to prove they have a buyer or place to offload the crude they are shipping
The companies made the requests during the past week.

This is a clear sign that a growing glut of crude is overwhelming storage capacity. Pipeline companies are running out of storage space for oil. Coronavirus related lockdowns are resulting in plunging demand."

https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/pipeline-operators-asking-oil-producers-to-reduce-output-growing-glut-is-capacity-20200329

Posted by: daffyDuct | Mar 31 2020 2:28 utc | 101

Trump has a lot of leverage. by: Kali @ 11 <== I hope not, Americans since 1972 want Americans to produce American oil and leave that foreign oil to the victors of wars. Oil is all over America and Americans can produce and profit from it at $12 -$13 a bbl. 3 million American jobs, non Excon jobs, but jobs of independent oil men.

Question: But what strategic offer could Trump make that would move Putin to agree to some new deal?
Trump's folly "Return Alaska and Sara Palin to Russia" re: ak74 @ 51

<= Red Ryder @ 57 says.. "Trump has no chips and no cards to play. He shot his wad by scaring the Swiss pipe-laying company to cease operations on the Nord Stream 2. Natural Gas is the bloodline for Russia. Might as well fire missiles at them.

Red Ryder @57 says: "MBS overplayed his hand with oil production increases, also, trying to force Russian customers to switch to Saudi oil. This was the second time SA went after the Russian client market. by Red Ryder @ 57.. "<==Americans can save Trump .. but Trump cannot save America or Americans. <= between `1949 and 1972 the oil and gas business in America employed 3,000,000 cable tool guys their 90 day 300' to 7500' deep hole, on 10 or 20 acre spacings, would produce less and less each day, but $11 to $16 a barrel was good money. these wells were everywhere Texas to Penn .. Wall Street and OPEC put 3,000,000 Americans out of work. Trump can take some of the $6 trillion USD he gave to Excon types, and restart those shallow wells, put 3,000,000 Americans to work, and return the price of oil to $11 to $16 dollars. Americans would be working again, oil and gas is all over America;

Vinnieoh @ 72 says: "The US nationalizes those [fracking] holdings and the industry in general. We're throwing money around like it grows on Trump's ample ass, so why not a coupla' trillion to ensure real US energy security? These wells may be undesirable now due to low market price, but a vast amount of money has been spent consolidating leasholdings, laying pipelines, and the other preparatory work. When prices rise to a certain level you can bet those foreign investors will put it all back into production - and ship it to their shores, and a big FU to the US.

Extinguish liquification and transport of LNG. by: vinnieoh @| 72" <= yes, yes, yes,, and keep American oil in America and let the Excon folks suffer the consequences of the oil in the tanker strategies.

VK @ 78 says: "Nationalization makes sense, but it only happened once in America's history if I'm not mistaken. It was done by Truman, and was done to squash a strike in the steel mills. FDR took control of the private sector and effectively made the USA a socialist economy between 1942 and 1944. But those were truly exceptional times. by: vk @ 78" <=== there is no reason to invoke nationalism in a democratic capitalist society.. competition is the essence of capitalism and the little tiny driller with a cable tool on the back of his pickemup truck can make the oil and gas America needs. Foreign Wall Street oil can crash and burn..

Paul @ 82 says: "Slightly off topic, interesting article from the Sydney Morning Herald on Coronavirus:
https://www.smh.com.au/national/the-perfect-virus-two-gene-tweaks-that-turned-covid-19-into-a-killer-20200327-p54elo.html by: Paul @ 82 <= According to the biologists responsible for the research, the virus was not a product of evolution or mutation even theoretically speaking. Hence, .. man-made. Covid 19 was engineered

Well, here's America's chance to buy American! by: Norogene @ 88 < I agree transfer the fall from Americans to wall street's big time players

Posted by: snake | Mar 31 2020 2:29 utc | 102

Any expectation of leadership from the stable genius will be sorely disappointed. Should Biden become top dog, the same will be true. This is a moment for transformation of the nation's priorities and institutions. We leave the antiquated notions of unregulated free markets and enter a new world of managed markets made possible by computer technology. We change failed institutions such as the privatized financial system currently imploding and the already failed private health care system. We develop new energy sources as the oil markets collapse and invest in solar and other sustainable sources. Attempting to rejuvenate business-as-usual will not work and this is all the stable genius can imagine. Biden will be little different. Prognosis: we're screwed!

Posted by: jadan | Mar 31 2020 2:41 utc | 103

@73 Kooshy

I believe google has dropped cov info from Iran, duno if that would have impacted the site you were referring to.. be well.

Posted by: Rd | Mar 31 2020 2:54 utc | 104

@ 106 rd and kooshy - this site still has it up to date as i understand it..
Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University (JHU)


Posted by: james | Mar 31 2020 2:56 utc | 105

Putin's strategy should be that of the matador against a mad bull, ramping up pressure where needed - to Iran, to Syria, to Venezuela, to Ukrainian rebels - to deny it any military solutions anywhere - no fait accompli consensus, no stabilizing victory, only a menu of bad options that leaves the US in a state of strategic paralysis and focused inward on the pandemic and its fallout. The geopolitical status quo should hold as much as possible in the Middle East, Europe, east Asia, and Latin America. Because that means Russia wins.

Posted by: Cesare | Mar 31 2020 2:58 utc | 106

I don't think that b covered the recent development in Russia/Venezuela that makes it unlikely that US will attack it any time soon.

Just this past week the Russian private oil company Rosneft sold its interest in Venezuela oil to the Russian government. I don't think Putin would like it if the US invaded Venezuela.

I like reading about the potential for OPEC++ that would include Iran, Venezuela, Libya, etc. A cooperative agreement about oil manufacturing, sale and distribution instead of the rape and pillage model until now would be an improvement.

We live in very interesting times......

Posted by: psychohistorian | Mar 31 2020 2:59 utc | 107

Just this past week the Russian private oil company Rosneft sold its interest in Venezuela oil to the Russian government. I don't think Putin would like it if the US invaded Venezuela.
Posted by: psychohistorian | Mar 31 2020 2:59 utc | 109
____

Both Russia and China have major investments in Venezuela. They wouldn't like it if the US invaded but couldn't physically stop it; they have no naval projection in the Atlantic. China had considerable investments in Gaddafi's Libya too; they went poof.

Posted by: occupatio | Mar 31 2020 3:23 utc | 108

blues #76

So let's just let Orange Jesus continue with those phone calls.

Orange Jesus can call who he likes but it wont change the global perception that he not agreement capable and will breach the agreement immediately. Ask Kim Jong Un and Xi and Vladimir Putin.

As soon as he announces his agreement the shitheads at the DNC, CNN, MSNBC will tear him down as being a Russian Agent and making a failed 'deal' that sank the USA fracking and shale oil industries.

The Orange Jesus is about to see that the revenge of the money changers is the same 2020 years later. He will be crucified. As no other tactic could ever get Biden elected now that he has been caught with his hand up a skirt.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Mar 31 2020 4:21 utc | 109

Worldometer site is a good coronavirus tracker. plenty of detail. Tried posting link but hasn't appeared.
US deaths will overtake China today.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 31 2020 5:04 utc | 110

Looks like the recently 'delayed' northern gas pipeline to (still largely) Occupied Germany will be going ahead again in the near future ... the art of (Russian) negotiation.... (wink)

Posted by: imo | Mar 31 2020 7:24 utc | 111

G20 current chairman bombing Sanaa
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/houthis-saudi-uae-coalition-carried-air-raids-sanaa-200330113705140.html

Posted by: Mina | Mar 31 2020 9:09 utc | 112

#109

Just this past week the Russian private oil company Rosneft sold its interest in Venezuela oil to the Russian government.

Yes, the news appeared recently:

The Russian Federation has established the company Roszarubezhneft. The joint-stock company was registered in Moscow on March 28, the day when the Russian government announced the acquisition of assets from Rosneft in Venezuela to the balance of an unnamed state-owned company with 100% state participation in exchange for a 9.6% stake in the oil company itself. Roszarubezhneft has a gigantic authorized capital for the new company - 322 billion 752.01 million rubles (more that 4.1 billion dollars).

Posted by: alaff | Mar 31 2020 9:12 utc | 113

James
Warlike actions

Watch Iraq and by extension Iran. It may be nothing but ----
A war would take out oil production from both of these countries and Trump is desperate to keep the petro-dollar floating. Recent;
Elijah J. Magnier
@ejmalrai
Unauthorised #US flights continue to hover above Iraqi military bases and positions of the Popular Mobilisation Forces in different parts of #Iraq. caretaker Prime Minister Adil Abdel Mahdi warned the US from attacking any target in Iraq saying it will jeoperdise the stability.

Khomeini's twitter account has been supressed and the FT/google is no longer publishing Iranian coronavirus death figures. ( They probably wouldn't if there was any reduction in Iranian figures either, but both number of confirmed cases and recovered figures are still findable elsewhere)

Posted by: Stonebird | Mar 31 2020 9:50 utc | 114

Remember a few days back when I was cynically mock cheering for the US to overtake China as the #1 champion of covid cases? Today the US has lapped them. America now has more than twice the number of confirmed covid cases that China has. It has taken a little longer for the US to catch up in total deaths because the cases are more spread out in the US, so local hospitals (outside of NY anyway) are able to keep up with the critical cases so far, but that is likely to begin to change over the rest of this week and early next week.

Posted by: William Gruff | Mar 31 2020 11:12 utc | 115

I forgot to add to my above depressing news: That means the US isn't going to be "open for business" anytime soon. Because the US response to the virus has been so weak, infections will continue to increase in both rate and total numbers rather than peak like they did in China. The "peak" for the US is months away still. Oil demand will remain tepid at best, and more likely stone cold.

Global markets are China's for the taking. If they do not kill off the petrodollar it will only be out of pity... a sportsmen-like refusal to kick an opponent when they are down. It is my opinion that such a refusal to act decisively would be foolish on China's part.

Posted by: William Gruff | Mar 31 2020 11:21 utc | 116

Yeah, looks like the end of quarantine is working out very well for them, "Go China!"
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-violence-erupts-in-china-as-people-try-to-leave-coronavirus-stricken/

Posted by: Realist | Mar 31 2020 11:42 utc | 117

William Gruff @ 116

There is no way to know when the peak will occur. From the beginning there has been an absolute refusal to gather the data that would make such a determination possible. Now that months of possible data acquisition has been foregone there is still a way to do this. Antibody tests would show how many have been exposed and recovered. Given that this virus is highly contagious and has been with us at least since October it would seem likely that most are already exposed. Antibody tests are cheap, quick, simple.

For two or maybe three weeks now reports come out that antibody tests will be here in just a few days. And then the tests don’t appear. Do the PTB find a pandemic valuable? Is it what they want?

Posted by: oldhippie | Mar 31 2020 11:47 utc | 118

oldhippie @118

Exposure to the virus is not the only way to develop antibodies ;-)

Perhaps you are correct and PTB don't want it getting out yet that many Americans (perhaps all of those who had the last flu vaccine?) already have the antibodies to the coronavirus. That would raise some eyebrows, to say the least. More time gives them more deniability.

Posted by: William Gruff | Mar 31 2020 12:24 utc | 119

For two or maybe three weeks now reports come out that antibody tests will be here in just a few days. And then the tests don’t appear. Do the PTB find a pandemic valuable? Is it what they want?

Posted by: oldhippie | Mar 31 2020 11:47 utc | 118

It takes time from lab to mass production. And given that it is USA, add negotiations about costs, right etc.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Mar 31 2020 12:27 utc | 120

I say "Amen!" to the last sentence.

Posted by: Steve | Mar 31 2020 12:30 utc | 121

'Light at the end of the tunnel': China's factory activity jumps in March amid global recession fears

Yes, there is a light at the end of the tunnel, but it is only one light and that light is China.

Since the downturn will be extended in the West, oil prices will be rock bottom for some time to come. China might take this opportunity to transition a portion of the baseload electricity generation from coal to oil, cleaning up their air a bit. This might buoy prices slightly. Doubtfully enough to make shale profitable, but the Russians and Saudis might appreciate it.

Posted by: William Gruff | Mar 31 2020 12:37 utc | 122

jayc #66:

"If the Americans decide some sort of military adventure is necessary in reaction to the coronavirus disaster, then a regime-change operation directed against Venezuela would likely be the first choice"

A US strike on Venezuela would not be a cakewalk and the yanks know it. Only a complete fool would order a military attack on a country with an over-lapping air defense capability that includes:

23 Su-30MK2 air superiority fighters
20 mobile Buk-M2E SAM systems
2 battalions of S-300VM anti missile systems
5,000 Igla-S MANPADS

This is not to say Fat Fuck Pompeo isn't conspiring with other war criminals like Elliott Abrams in mounting other all-out efforts of bringing about regime change. To allow an oil-rich country in South America to go "communist" and be friends with Russia is basically a non-starter for those turds.

Posted by: krypton | Mar 31 2020 12:47 utc | 123

krypton @123

And that doesn't even take into consideration that the US would eventually need "boots on the ground" to complete regime change Venezuela. They would face off in part against militias.

One wonders how the empire's mass media is able to sell the notion that Venezuela's government is some sort of "hated dictatorship" when they have armed semi-independent militias composed of millions of the country's workers and impoverished? Don't dictatorships disarm their populations rather than arm them?

Anyway, these militias are based in the communities where their members live. If the US attempts to invade they will face a nightmare worse than their effort to subjugate Vietnam since they don't get to start with half the country in a stranglehold already.

What's unfortunate is that the US might be desperate and delusional enough to think they can succeed with attacking Venezuela. Trump, as well as most Americans, seem to believe that most Venezuelans would be on their side if the US were to invade. They are brainwashed/delusional enough to imagine they would be welcomed as saviors by the Venezuelan population. Being welcomed with bullets would cause great confusion among Americans. Confusion that they would deal with by imagining that the bullets are all coming from Cubans, and maybe Hezbollah as well.

Posted by: William Gruff | Mar 31 2020 13:11 utc | 124

Considering the reality that most Americans refuse to accept that 9/11 wasn't the work of 19 Arab men armed with box cutters, I don't hold out much hope that a majority will realize what's being done to them this time, either.

Posted by: information_agent | Mar 31 2020 13:14 utc | 125

@116 William Gruff

China closed down thus destroying global supply chains, now it has exported the virus so even as it starts opening back up to resupply the world it is seeing massive global demand destruction. This is a big loss for China and they won't be taking over global markets anytime soon.

Posted by: TJ | Mar 31 2020 13:28 utc | 126

@information_agent | Mar 31 2020 13:14 utc | 125

Considering the reality that most Americans refuse to accept that 9/11 wasn't the work of 19 Arab men armed with box cutters, I don't hold out much hope that a majority will realize what's being done to them this time, either.

It is cognitive dissonance. Americans have been spoon fed with nonsense propaganda that they are exceptional and their "way of life" is no much better than anyone else's. They just refuse to even consider the thought that they live in a fundamentally evil system of war and propaganda. The reason they refuse is that there is a subconscious feeling that their world view is a lie, and that feeling must be suppressed.

Having said that about americans, I should add that unfortunately many in my country have similar delusions.

Posted by: Norwegian | Mar 31 2020 13:37 utc | 127

TJ @126

Sure, global demand is down for manufactured goods, but not nearly so much decline there as for oil. Furthermore, the supply of manufactured goods, other than what is produced by China, is down even more than the demand. Of course it is still a big loss for China, but they will still end up owning global markets. There is really no way around that so long as social distancing and lockdowns continue in the West, and we have many more months of that yet to go.

Posted by: William Gruff | Mar 31 2020 13:39 utc | 128

Norwegian @127: "The reason they refuse is that there is a subconscious feeling that their world view is a lie, and that feeling must be suppressed."

That is an American's patriotic duty. America is a country at war, and has been for almost the entire lives of all Americans. It is the duty of every citizen to support their country's war efforts any way they can, even if it only means forcing themselves to believe "their side's" obviously bogus jingoism and propaganda.

Posted by: William Gruff | Mar 31 2020 13:46 utc | 129

@ Posted by: William Gruff | Mar 31 2020 13:39 utc | 128

The author expressed wrongly in the post. It's not that demand fell, it's that supply (production) fell. Supply and demand are empty terms used by vulgar economics (bourgeois economics) to explain everything.

Most of the world's consumption of oil doesn't come from the average citizens (i.e. working class), but from industry. Industry uses oil as constant capital, that is, a thing that is used with the machinery (fixed capital) in order to produce other things, but which its original form disappears in the process. You can consider constant capital as all the "raw materials" + the energy used to make the infrastructure work (electricity, water, etc.).

So, the correct term b should have used in his post is not "demand", but "consumption [as constant capital]". The intermediary chains of production had to stop production because of the pandemic (otherwise they would lose their workers, who are the variable capital). It was this paralysation that curbed global oil consumption. Yes, people stopping going to work by car also curbs oil consumption, as gasoline and diesel have oil as its main ingredient, but this consumption is very low in relation to the global total consumed.

Posted by: vk | Mar 31 2020 14:05 utc | 130

james | Mar 31 2020 2:56 utc | 105

James-
It is the Financial Times, which as of yesterday afternoon suddenly dropped showing Iran on it’s daily comparison graphs of number of death and number of infected on major infected countries. Up to yesterday morning Iran progress was shown in Green on number of dead and number of infected graphs. If you check even on individual smaller disease progress graphs, Iran’ graphs is no longer shown, mentioned or included. I suspect Iran was dropped because Iran’ under sanction current death and infection is lower than most leading western countries including US, and that has been becoming a embarrassment for US and Brian Hook. Coronavirus tracked: the latest figures as the pandemic spreads | Free to read for propagandist at FT Iran doesn’t exist especially if there is any relatively good news

https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

Posted by: kooshy | Mar 31 2020 14:13 utc | 131

b states "..Saudi tourist industry is currently also dead..."

What a laugher. Saudi Arabia is the last place any normal person would spend money to visit. It's backward, dangerous and totally devoid of anything worthwhile. Nothing to see except billions worth of US and British weaponry - that the Saudis themselves cannot operate without massive assistance. Hell, ya can't even get a drink there - Saudi royalty has to flock out of their own country to party.

Posted by: Vic | Mar 31 2020 14:20 utc | 132

Remember when the Fed enacted infinite bailout and zeroed our interest rate?

Now it has to deal with the collateral effects:

U.S. Fed to allow foreign central banks to swap debt for cash

The first country to come begging to the Fed's door was South Korea. Now it's time for the other "allies".

Posted by: vk | Mar 31 2020 14:42 utc | 133

@ vk 130

So, the correct term b should have used in his post is not "demand", but "consumption [as constant capital]".

vk, you do express yourself well, but at times like we all do, you slip up. Our host b is in Germany- first language, German.

Good grief, cut it out. In commerce the english word "Demand" for a product (Goods and Services) infers "Consumption" thus production:

Oxford Dictionary:- "Demand" (Pol.Econ.) purchasers' call for a commodity (laws of supply)
purchaser demand/buy/consumes; it's gone off the shelf, to be restocked by production.

COVID-19 has led to lockdowns; except for medical and groceries, it's "Stay at Home" [you are quarantined facing fines] thus the new COVID-19 related term - "Demand Shock" unforeseen.

Cheers.

Posted by: Likklemore | Mar 31 2020 14:45 utc | 134

this guy sounds a bit like The Saker, seeing the world trough his rose colored glasses. The Real Reality isn't that simple or favorable toward Russia as he makes it appear to be.
For example Russia has many MANY things it can ask from USA. It can ask for the crushing sanctions to be lifted. It can ask for USA to move out of illegality occupying Syria, Ukraine, Iraq, etc. Russia can ask for some sanctions against Iran to be lifted. Dont tell me Russia wouldnt love to get some the the sanctions against it to be lifted.
Plus USA isnt that helpless against Russia either. USA can impose even more crushing sanctions against Russia, and especially sanctions against Russia's oil and gas sector that will ruin it.
Sorry, but that to be more realistic, eh?

Posted by: Hoyeru | Mar 31 2020 15:06 utc | 135

@ vk | Mar 31 2020 14:42 utc | 133

'The first country to come begging to the Fed's door was South Korea. Now it's time for the other "allies".'

Begging? Maybe, I certainly do not know for sure.
But, is it possible they are doing this to prevent cash strapped countries from selling off their T-Bills, which if they did would lead to a sharp rise in interest rates across the board, which again would add more damage to already ravaged economies.

Posted by: Hmpf | Mar 31 2020 15:06 utc | 136

@Vic

Hajj revenues poised to exceed $150bn by 2022: Experts

(the article refers to both Hajj and Umrah revenues)

https://www.arabnews.com/node/1151751/saudi-arabia

If that actually occurred it would exceed SA's 2019 $88bn oil revenue by a good margin

Posted by: Bill | Mar 31 2020 15:34 utc | 137

@ 114 stonebird... thanks for that... we'll see.. as i said earlier.. i sure hope not..

@ 131 kooshy.. i see they mention iran at the very bottom, but as you note, not everywhere else.. that seems strange..

Posted by: james | Mar 31 2020 15:37 utc | 138

OilPrice discussion

Jan van Eck
yesterday at 02:03 AM

Petroteq, the Utah oil-sands micro-producer with that new solvent technique developed by Canadians, has shut in its pilot plant, only producing a trickle as demonstration for potential licensees. First one down. Who is next?

>> solvent technique became insolvent, pain felt mostly in Canada <<

marginal offshore.

Rasmus Jorgensen, Oil Major

after that : US LTO (a.k.a shale)

After that NOCs of the ME, Africa, South America and SE Asia

Ward Smith, Oil Major

23 hours ago, wrs said:
Like I said on another thread. I spoke with our independent about shutting in our 5 wells that he operates as long as price is below $35. He is getting an agreement put together so we can implement that beginning April 1. That's 50kbbl/mo.

Is this an implicit admission that the independent's cost to produce is $35? We've been trying to figure that number out for years on this site.

Dan Clemmensen, Community Member
Dan Clemmensen

20 hours ago

Why do we keep talking about the Saudis and Russians? they have basically nothing to do with the current problem, which is the demand crash. The market was (by definition) roughly in physical balance (crude pumped equals crude consumed) in December. The Saudis and Russians are making big talk about increasing production by maybe 2 million bbl/day, but they have not even done that yet. In the mean time demand has already crashed and will continue crash, reaching a crash of perhaps 20 million bbl/day by mid June: more than ten times the Saudi/Russian threats. When storage fills up, the price of newly-pumped crude will be zero. Asked: $5, bid: (no bids). Or worse for some wells, minimal production is necessary to maintain the well and you will pay someone to take it, like natural gas in the Permian. So what are you guys going to do with that crude? This has nothing whatsoever to do with the Saudis and the Russians, it's all about Covid-19. Once crude output is reduced to maybe 75 million bbl/day, it will have to stay there until at least the highest-cost storage is emptied, because the guys who are paying for that storage will be "selling" at or below zero.

ronwagn, Oil Major

20 hours ago

On 3/30/2020 at 2:05 AM, El Nikko said:
If there's almost nowhere to store it can anyone even take advantage of the low prices?
There's a lot of pressure within the shale industry to act as fast as possible from what I've seen including ways of preserving oil from the newest wells which don't lose productivity if shut in. But with no one to buy either the oil or gasoline/petrol it's not going make any difference for ages. It comes down to which governments are willing and are able to afford to keep these valuable industries alive surely?
I imagine there must be huge pressure on NATO and 'allied' countries to not buy from countries like Russia.

El Nikko, I hope you are right but I don't see them going for more expensive energy.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Mar 31 2020 15:44 utc | 139

Realist | Mar 31 2020 11:42 utc | 117

Not real. Click bait.

Posted by: stove pipe alley | Mar 31 2020 15:56 utc | 140

Since the theme of this thread is Putin vs Trump, comparing the speeches they made to their respective citizens ought to be done to reveal the chasm in philosophy between them. Putin's was delivered on 25 March, Trump gave his speech on 11 March. It should come as no surprise that Putin's speech framing and proposals were far superior to Trump's, who employed the Big Lie at the top of his speech:

"Because of the economic policies that we have put into place over the last three years, we have the greatest economy anywhere in the world, by far.

"Our banks and financial institutions are fully capitalized and incredibly strong. Our unemployment is at a historic low. This vast economic prosperity gives us flexibility, reserves, and resources to handle any threat that comes our way.

"This is not a financial crisis, this is just a temporary moment of time that we will overcome together as a nation and as a world."

Absolutely nothing he said above is true and in many cases he was immediately proved wrong. In stark contrast, Putin chose the following to begin his speech:

"By taking precautionary measures, we have been largely able to prevent the infection from rapidly spreading and limit the incidence rate. However, we have to understand that Russia cannot insulate itself from this threat, simply considering its geography. There are countries along our borders that have already been seriously affected by the epidemic, which means that in all objectivity it is impossible to stop it from spilling over into Russia.

"That said, being professional, well organised and proactive is what we can do and are already doing. The lives and health of our citizens is our top priority.

"We have mobilised all the capabilities and resources for deploying a system of timely prevention and treatment. I would like to specially address doctors, paramedics, nurses, staff at hospitals, outpatient clinics, rural paramedic centres, ambulance services, and researchers: you are at the forefront of dealing with this situation. My heartfelt gratitude to you for your dedicated efforts." [My Emphasis]

We must also consider the numerous gaffs Trump committed prior to his speech, his earlier gleeful gloating over China's troubles in January, and his politicizing of the crisis along with that of Pompeo. Then there's his escalation of the illegal attacks on Iran and Venezuela specifically, which are crimes against humanity. Yes, I readily admit my anti-Trump bias, but I'm not blinded like those who applaud him. Putin had immediate proposals for aid to his people that they can count on, while Trump did next to nothing by comparison. But do please read them both and make your own determination as to which nation and leader you'd rather have during this sort of crisis.

Posted by: karlof1 | Mar 31 2020 16:07 utc | 141

Piotr Berman @139

Yes, it does seem to just be hand waving and posturing from the Russians and Saudis, but it is having the desired effect, isn't it? If they shout loudly about increasing production, then they can "compromise" by not doing anything at all with their production levels, and US shale still takes it in the neck. Russia and the Saudis get what they want while looking conciliatory and reasonable.

In other words, perhaps all the sound and fury about Russia vs Saudia was just pre-positioning themselves on the geopolitical chessboard to avoid attacks from the US. This is perhaps more for the Saudis' benefit than the Russians since the Saudis are not really positioned to shrug off sanctions from the US... yet.

Posted by: William Gruff | Mar 31 2020 16:13 utc | 142

Posted by: stove pipe alley | Mar 31 2020 15:56 utc | 140

Lol
The old fingers in ears "la la la I can't hear you" reply.

Posted by: Realist | Mar 31 2020 16:31 utc | 143

and just like that Pompeo throws Guaido under the bus....in the midst of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Pompeo Calls on Maduro and Guaido to Step Aside for New Venezuela Elections

LINK

The US secretary of state also said that the two men need to establish a transitional government to arrange the polls.
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has told reporters that Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and Juan Guaido, whom Washington recognises as Venezuela's leader, should both step aside for new elections.

Pompeo proposed creating an interim government in the Latin American country and for a vote to be held in six to twelve months. If the US conditions are met, he added, Washington will be willing to lift sanctions from Venezuela.

The US secretary of state also said that the two men need to establish a transitional government to arrange the polls.
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has told reporters that Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and Juan Guaido, whom Washington recognises as Venezuela's leader, should both step aside for new elections.

Pompeo proposed creating an interim government in the Latin American country and for a vote to be held in six to twelve months. If the US conditions are met, he added, Washington will be willing to lift sanctions from Venezuela.[.]

How about donning a PPE and give a helping at the temporary Hospital in Central Park, NY?

Posted by: Likklemore | Mar 31 2020 16:31 utc | 144

Anyone who doesn't understand that Mike Pompeo is the enemy of humanity has not been paying attention. This is not a partisan statement, it's an objective observation.

Posted by: information_agent | Mar 31 2020 16:34 utc | 145

Realist | Mar 31 2020 16:31 utc | 143

And why do you have fingers in ears. Not an access point for covid?

Posted by: stove pipe alley | Mar 31 2020 16:38 utc | 146

@Posted by: Likklemore | Mar 31 2020 16:31 utc | 144

Thus, they appoint a clown as president encargado, so as to after failing a coup through intends of invasion at Cucutá border and massive sabotage of basic infrastructures by cyber terrorism, try to get with the trick of retiring the clown with the condition of retirig also the legitimate president of the country along him.

The result will be a coup similar to that in Bolivia, where any majority opposition to the minority far-right appointed encargada is allowed to run as candidate for elections under "US conditions"...and OAEs support....

To another dog with that bone.

Posted by: H.Schmatz | Mar 31 2020 16:39 utc | 147

What a laugher. Saudi Arabia is the last place any normal person would spend money to visit.

Posted by: Vic | Mar 31 2020 14:20 utc | 132

You've obviously never been there, or know anything about Saudi. Quite a lot of it is very beautiful, and well worth seeing. Just not the oil-fields or Riyadh, where you would have been if you'd really been there.

Posted by: Laguerre | Mar 31 2020 16:39 utc | 148

H.Schmatz @147

That may very well be the empire's plan, but the people of Venezuela have a say in how that turns out. They've not been docile and compliant with the empire's wishes for some years now.

Posted by: William Gruff | Mar 31 2020 17:02 utc | 149

As no other tactic could ever get Biden elected now that he has been caught with his hand up a skirt.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Mar 31 2020 4:21 utc | 109

WatchBeTalkingBoutWillis? US elected the orange dude which did far worse. Hmmm. It's a sign of manhood there.

Posted by: Sakineh Bagoom | Mar 31 2020 17:20 utc | 150

What a laugher. Saudi Arabia is the last place any normal person would spend money to visit.
Posted by: Vic | Mar 31 2020 14:20 utc | 132

You've obviously never been there, or know anything about Saudi. Quite a lot of it is very beautiful, and well worth seeing. Just not the oil-fields or Riyadh, where you would have been if you'd really been there.

Posted by: Laguerre | Mar 31 2020 16:39 utc | 148

Given some time and currency, I guess Morocco would offer more value for money if you want some exotic customs and landscapes. If you have more money, you could spend them on a carbon-free cruise with stunning vistas and off-the-beaten route: North Pole on board of nuclear-powered ice breaker! It is wise to have swimming costume (a pool is on board, heated, I presume) and sensible apparel -- enough for normal winter (in Moscow). The number of places is below 150, with a little hospital on board too. In the latest ads I read about discounts, but the deal was that you can pay in rubbles with prices below the rubble plunged by 25%, still, for 27 k USD you can see John Bolton's relatives in natural environment (like mommy walrus taking care of youngsters), polar bears, seals, and landscapes of Franz Josef Land. Helicopter rides included. You can also take a plunge into the arctic water -- with safety precautions .

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Mar 31 2020 17:22 utc | 151

It is payback time for Russia no doubt, but Russia plays always the long game, any decision or concession will always be related to the long game. for Russia, which is the global leader in energy supplier (oil, gas & nuclear).
Russia got really mad with the Nordstream II delay, this is something Russia will not forget that easy, besides costing them a lot, it was some sort of global humiliation, that combination is pure fire. Even if the sanction are lifted now, Nordstream would start late 2020 and not late 2019....1 year delay anyway, so lifting sanctions won't matter here.
My first reaction is that Russia will not agree with the USA in anything, it will drive the shale market dry for a little longer, it must if it wants to cause long term problems for the players in the US, so no short term relieve for the shale players here, and if Russia does agree in the OPEC++ with the US and other export players then this will take time, and then US Gov can not intervene in the local production, more time...and no results, at the end the US will have to give up something, and I do not think lifting sanctions will be it, they may try it, bit it has no real value for Russia....only a global military retreat, something that will cost dearly, politically and in image will. serve Russia and its key strategic ally...China, mind you that cheap oil and gas helps China's recovery...March nbrs came in from China and it has already shown a better recovery than expected.
This is the only way I can see Russia playing the long game, together with China and a major strategic geopolitical defeat for the US.

Posted by: Canthama | Mar 31 2020 17:26 utc | 152

Given some time and currency, I guess Morocco would offer more value for money if you want some exotic customs and landscapes.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Mar 31 2020 17:22 utc | 151

The question was about Saudi, not Morocco or other places which might be worth also visiting. Like I said, well worth seeing. Places should not be judged by their current political regime.

Posted by: Laguerre | Mar 31 2020 17:42 utc | 153

Posted by: Canthama | Mar 31 2020 17:26 utc | 152

"This is the only way I can see Russia playing the long game, together with China and a major strategic geopolitical defeat for the US."

I like what you said, but Russia and China must continue supports one another. Both should also supports Iran and Venezuela too.

Posted by: JC | Mar 31 2020 17:46 utc | 154

James@25

". in a roundabout way i smell WAR." I take it you mean for the US because a lot of other parts of the world have been at war for quite a while , whether it be shooting or economic the death and destruction is the same only takes a little longer for the latter. The WAR you will see this time will be with plane loads of body bags that were seen in the Vietnam "police action". Unless Trump plans on bombing the Palestinians with Bibi most other places left can shoot back.

Posted by: Tobi | Mar 31 2020 18:03 utc | 155

@ 155 tobi... it is hard to know how it will manifest... one could say the planet is at war with covid 19 right now.. it might be more figurative then literal... it just seems the combination of the oil collapse and covid 19 are a combination that might result it something else.. maybe not too.. i don't know...

@ adkc.. i wanted to tell you that i continue to read the youtube links you shared with me.. the info on population control is really in the 2nd link which i am still processing.. here is a key quote from it -
"To understand how this came about, we have to examine the history of the emergence of the environmental movement. In the post-war period, the desire to control the population put on a new mask: protecting the world from resource depletion, pollution and ecological catastrophe. And, as always, the Rockefeller family was there to provide the funding and organizational support to steer this burgeoning movement toward their own ends."

Posted by: james | Mar 31 2020 18:15 utc | 156

Does anyone else have an apprehension about possible sabotaging of the Akademic Cherskiy?

Posted by: chet380 | Mar 31 2020 18:26 utc | 157

Posted by: Realist | Mar 30 2020 23:21 utc | 84


The saudi were put there by UK secret services..even the stones know that Saud family is not muslim but simply zionists put there to serve the greater ZOG design.

Posted by: LuBa | Mar 31 2020 18:33 utc | 158

The responses re:Al Saud get stupider by the minute

Posted by: Realist | Mar 31 2020 18:56 utc | 159

Hmpf | Mar 31 2020 15:06 utc | 136

...But, is it possible they are doing this to prevent cash strapped countries from selling off their T-Bills, ...

Reading that, I felt the ground shake. Insider prescient.

Posted by: chu teh | Mar 31 2020 19:01 utc | 160

krypton | Mar 31 2020 12:47 utc | 123

Re...This is not to say Fat Fuck Pompeo isn't conspiring with other war criminals like Elliott Abrams in mounting other all-out efforts of bringing about regime change. ...

As above, FFP n EA n many others have no fear of death. From deeply imbedded truths, they somehow know that their views are purely righteous and therefore pleasing to their God.

Posted by: chu teh | Mar 31 2020 19:23 utc | 161

re: alaff | Mar 31 2020 9:12 utc | 113

"The Russian Federation has established the company Roszarubezhneft. The joint-stock company was registered in Moscow on March 28, the day when the Russian government announced the acquisition of assets from Rosneft in Venezuela to the balance of an unnamed state-owned company with 100% state participation in exchange for a 9.6% stake in the oil company itself. Roszarubezhneft has a gigantic authorized capital for the new company - 322 billion 752.01 million rubles (more that 4.1 billion dollars)."

Anyone think that this change in ownership was done to increase the liklihood of Russian intervention if Washington decides to intervene militarily in Venezuela?

Posted by: Perimetr | Mar 31 2020 19:24 utc | 162

The so called experts lied about US oil shale production and investors, media and politicians fell for it. Do you think the same could happen in other fields like diseases?

Yes people are dying from the corona virus, but some questions are,

Are people dying at a rate which is exponentially higher than in past years?
Is the coronavirus really the cause of death or a complication which results from old age?

In other words, we can't stop death, especially among the elderly, in spite of what our government or the so called experts tell us or want us to believe. The elderly, like the rest of us, are eventually going to die from something, whether it is from the corona virus or something else. Stopping the coronavirus isn't going to stop people from dying, death rates in the US were going up but not because of the coronavirus but because of a variety of factors especially among the poor, and those without healthcare coverage, which is still the case with the coronavirus.

Posted by: Jim | Mar 31 2020 19:41 utc | 163

oldhippie | Mar 31 2020 11:47 utc | 118

"For two or maybe three weeks now reports come out that antibody tests will be here in just a few days. And then the tests don’t appear. Do the PTB find a pandemic valuable? Is it what they want?...

Thanks your credible n valued input.

Perhaps of note, week ago a source related a family member's recovery from C19 virus using [transfusion?] antibodies from a recovered patient, based on their physician's understanding and recommendation as last resort.

Again, your views of great value.

Posted by: chu teh | Mar 31 2020 19:45 utc | 164

Coincidentally, this has just came out today in the MSM:

Fracking Once Lifted Pennsylvania. Now It Could Be a Drag

Posted by: vk | Mar 31 2020 20:38 utc | 165

Posted by: Perimetr | Mar 31 2020 19:24 utc | 162

The USA is not really in a position to intervene militarily in Venezuela at the moment, or any time soon. A bit of death from above maybe, but that would change nothing and would backfire "big time". Actually even that could be tricky to arrange at the moment. This is why Pompeo has put forth his new plan for Guaido and Maduro to step aside for some ruling council, he seems to think Maduro is dumber than he is, and he's wrong about that too.

Posted by: Bemildred | Mar 31 2020 22:13 utc | 166

Canthama #152

This is the only way I can see Russia playing the long game, together with China and a major strategic geopolitical defeat for the US.


YES to that. I do not see Russia being in any hurry to even discuss the oil issue outside the Opec++ gang of fixers. They might even see some advantage in long drawn out wrangles within OPEC such that Saudia loses its dominant share and power.

From what Trump said the next move is G20 as they have kicked the ball over there. Bound to get lost in the long grass for a month or two.

If Trump can get a muzzle or garrotte around Pompeo's throat it might help and I would think that is the sign others are looking for. I would not hold my breath for that to happen.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Apr 1 2020 6:28 utc | 167

117 That's your American exceptionalism. Your link is bullshit anti Chinese click bait, as someone else called you out on. For 116, hey man I'm in Washington state and it is very much open for business. Also here the state government is giving a peak...for late april. So are NY and FL my other haunts are considerably more closed down,but nothing like my family in southern Europe or South America. They are under the real quarantine.

Posted by: Abu aisha | Apr 1 2020 7:23 utc | 168

karlof1 #141

Thank you for the link to Vladimir Putin's address to the Russian nation. What a fine world it would be if all leaders responded to these times in that fashion.

He must have a magnificent team of advisers and managers around the Kremlin. Such a response demonstrates clearly the capacity of the current ideology in Russia, which I see as solidly capitalist with strong residual social community priorities. It makes western leaders appear as mice.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Apr 1 2020 10:05 utc | 169

Tungsten a pig is a pig, yet vova who I deeply respect and admire, is really a proper statesman. As lavrov, a million times over is the absolute diplomat. He's no pig. Or trash as they say in rossija. Most everyone in the planet knows the threat is not Russia, it's not China, it's not Iran or. Irak . Much less Cuba or Venezuela or Nicaragua. Poor Bolivia. The threat is the US. The US imposed on the planet we are living in is the threat. I cannot forget Greek American friends in 1990 saying that when they went home for the holidays people would say: "the Soviets will destroy you"

Posted by: Abu Aisha | Apr 1 2020 11:00 utc | 170

YES to that. I do not see Russia being in any hurry to even discuss the oil issue outside the Opec++ gang of fixers.
Posted by: uncle tungsten | Apr 1 2020 6:28 utc | 167

One has to have a macro picture to figure out the reasonable course of action for various actors.

The oil production outside OPEC++ increased a lot by exploiting high cost sources like deep ocean wells, oil tars and shale. Yet most of that lowered its "break even point", so they could huff and puff through periods of 40-ish prices, and there was a stream of new investments. The low cost producers that wish to use oil to lower taxes, national investments etc. were very much hindered. In the long term they need to increase the risk for high cost investors. Now the excess capacity in oil seems to be about 25%. The prices perhaps could be kept stable if "everybody cut the production by 25%". But the high cost producers do not want to do it. If Canada, USA and some other non-OPEC offered to join everybody in 25% production cut, that could be considered, but I just do not see it happening. So OPEC would need to make 50% cut, keeping the leeches alive.

In other words, the question is: is it better to get 50% rather than 100%, or leave it to Mother Nature (Invisible Hand?), get 20-30% for a year or so, and instill Fear of God in the financial circles that bankrolled high cost producers. Resisting MaNa and InHa can be futile to begin with.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Apr 1 2020 16:21 utc | 171

I decided to spend a few minutes to look at what Harris Kupperman said, as well as what b posted.
China consumes 13.5 mbpd, but imports 8.4 mbpd
US consumes 20.5 mbpd, imports 7 mbpd
Europe consumes 15 mbpd, imports 14 mbpd
China's drop was in imports, not overall consumption - so actual consumption decrease was likely only 12.5%
Using this as a model, here are the results:
China, US and Europe only, 3 months, excess oil (million barrels = mb): 549mb
Above, 6 months: 1097 mb
Entire world, 3 months: 1114 mb
Above, 6 months: 2228 mb

But this isn't the whole picture, there's also the production increases.
Saudi increases, 3 months: 234 mb
Above, 6 months: 468 mb
Russia, 3 and 6 months: 45/90
UAE, 3 and 6 months: 90/180

Summing it up: US+Europe+China+extra production, 3 months and 6 months: 917mb and 1835mb
Whole world: 1483 and 2966 mb

Note I didn't add rest of OPEC increased production.

Net net: the Kupperman 1-3 billion barrels of extra oil is a credible prediction.

I don't see any reason to doubt his view of return to normal only decreasing the ginormous pileup by 5mbpd. Every billion barrels in storage is 200 days of excess inventory pressuring oil prices down. 3 billion barrels more is 2 full years, added rest of OPEC production only makes this worse.

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 1 2020 17:07 utc | 172

One mystery for me is why Canadians bother to produce oil with single-digit prices. Stopping tar oil production should be simple, just mothball the equipment.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Mar 31 2020 1:46 utc | 99

I did some checking. It seems that half of Canadian production is from sand tars using "in situ" method. you create a system of horizontal pipes and inject steam to one part of types and collect liquified bitumen with the other part. I also made an experiment: re-starting to use a liquid soap dish after a year, as my household wishes to have soap dishes "everywhere" now. The nozzle required some cleaning with a straightened paper clip, and then the pump started to work after pumping for a while using hot water. When you do not use it, liquid soap turns to gunk. Probably the same happens with bitumen which is basically gunk. Perhaps once it reverts to more solid state, it takes a while of steam using to make it flow again, and perhaps some chemical changes can make it harder than in the case of my soap pump.

Shale oil may have similar problem. If you stop production, the horizontal pipes can get clogged, and restarting the production can be pricy. Something like that affects conventional oil too, so there is a rush for storage, so far the storage prices only doubled... but storage in tankers skyrocketed, when it rains it pours in the oil patch.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Apr 1 2020 19:01 utc | 173

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
· 23m [an hour ago at my posting time]
Just spoke to my friend MBS (Crown Prince) of Saudi Arabia, who spoke with President Putin of Russia, & I expect & hope that they will be cutting back approximately 10 Million Barrels, and maybe substantially more which, if it happens, will be GREAT for the oil & gas industry!

-----

Someone is delusional. My bet is on DJT, although MbS is not particularly lucid either.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Apr 2 2020 15:01 utc | 174

Piotr Berman @174:

Well, didn't that just cause the Dow to jump 400 points!

But yay, the prospect of higher fuel prices right when nobody can afford to fill their tanks anyway.

Posted by: corvo | Apr 2 2020 15:08 utc | 175

"Amid the confusion, multiple White House officials told POLITICO this week that Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner has become the de facto coordinator of emergency response, with his influence in the White House outweighing that of Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar..."

The architect of Middle East peace plan of this Administration now applies his talents to corona virus response.

We are doomed.
=========
Concerning KSA cutting oil production. They had huge problems selling their stuff. Tankers are re-purposed as storage facilities, and when you find a tanker, the customers refuse to buy (some Saudi cargoes were refused by India, so they get converted into storage). Perhaps oil will move up a bit, bit Americans, of all people, barely drive, I guess the same is the case in Europe (although in Poland they surely drive judging from reports of road fatalities), very few people fly. On the positive side, some oil companies already went bankrupt, so the removal of excess capacity is happening.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Apr 2 2020 22:12 utc | 176

Christian J Chuba | Mar 30 2020 20:01 utc | 35

Hubei province has a population of about 57 million.
The average Chinese dies aged 76.7 years old.
Put those figures together and you can see that rather more than 2000 people will die on an average day.
The epidemic does not prevent people from dying of other causes.
" 'local sources' are telling them that they are cremating 500 people a day". Why so few?
I would add that there are also stories in the msm that there are large numbers of urns being delivered to the crematoria. This also seems unsurprising to me. Probably, urns were not sufficiently important to ship during the lockdown. Hence there was a big backlog when the lockdown was ended. Since the Chinese are not, on average, stupid, they will not have adopted just-in-time working and the crematoria will buy urns in bulk because it is cheaper.

Posted by: foolisholdman | Apr 5 2020 16:58 utc | 177

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