|
The MoA Week In Review – Open Thread 2020-22
Last week's posts at Moon of Alabama:
> Go hard right now. Order heavy social distancing. Get this thing under control.
Then, release the measures, so that people can gradually get back their freedoms and something approaching normal social and economic life can resume. <
Harry Moroz @hrmoroz – 15:35 UTC · Mar 20, 2020
For the average American the best way to tell if you have covid-19 is to cough in a rich person’s face and wait for their test results
> Overall, we rate Moon of Alabama Left Biased based on story selection and word choices that consistently favor progressives and Mixed factually due to anonymity associated with who runs the site. Otherwise, Moon of Alabama is well sourced to credible/factual information. <
—
Other issues:
Ukraine:
Six years and $20 billion in Russian investment later, Crimeans are happy with Russian annexation – Washington Post!
Ukraine’s Zelensky wants to end a war in the east. His problem: No one agrees how to do it. – Washington Post
Use as open thread …
Reposted from comments in False Claims About the Novel Coronavirus and How to Debunk Them:
@b
“Facts:
Some Indian researchers found four genome sequences in the novel coronavirus that can also be found in the HIV virus. They self published their findings in a paper that was not peer reviewed. We discussed that paper in detail on February 1 in our second post on the virus and we strongly expressed our doubt about its veracity. A few days later the paper was retracted by its authors after other scientists had pointed out that the lengths of each of the four sequences they had compared were way too small to be of statistical significance”
“– Another peculiar characteristic is COVID-19’s similarities to HIV. And so although another since-retracted pre-print noted several very short genomic sequences in COVID-19’s spike-protein gene that look far more similar to sequences found in HIV than to other coronaviruses – critics quickly pointed out that the shared homology didn’t reach statistical significance. However a closer look at the data reveals that there were a few small shared genomic segments that, despite being physically separated from each other along each strand of DNA, all worked together to code for the Wuhan Strain’s protein-spike’s crucial receptor binding site. Something that is highly unlikely to have happened by chance. And despite most of its protein-spike being shared with SARS, these substituted segments weren’t shared at all – nor were they found in any other coronavirus. One possible but likely reason for these HIV-like segments is that they were meant to be epitopes, or molecular flags meant to mark intruders for a vaccine to target – meaning the Wuhan Strain was built as a monster for a specific vaccine to hunt. It is mathematically possible for this to happen in nature – but only in a ten-thousand bats chained to ten-thousand Petri dishes and given until infinity sense. Alternatively, this pattern could also be produced by infecting a room full of ferrets with a bespoke coronavirus and sifting through the wreckage for your genomic needle.”
https://harvardtothebighouse.com/2020/01/31/logistical-and-technical-analysis-of-the-origins-of-the-wuhan-coronavirus-2019-ncov/
On February 3rd I posted:
“”Uncanny similarity of unique inserts in the 2019-nCoV spike protein to HIV-1 gp120 and Gag” https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.30.927871v1
This is a SARS type coronavirus. Its spike glycoprotein contains 4 insertions. The insertions are in a row. None have been seen in another coronavirus (low probability). All 4 are present in all human source samples of the Wuhan coronavirus – all four of which match up to HIV-1 sequences. They do not represent a single unbroken sequence from HIV-1; they come from four different places, but in this new coronavirus they’re all together (low probability). They each enable the new coronavirus to perform a task making the base coronavirus more survivable and more effective, as they are critical for the virus to identify and latch on to host cells, and for viral assembly (low probability for all four to be useful). It is considered unlikely a coronavirus would mutate to pick up 4 novel insertions so quickly, and it is obviously highly unlikely all 4 would match HIV-1 sequences, and there are no useless incidental insertions. Even if we do not parse these into separate events, there are unquestionably no less than three low probability events here with respect to the consideration that this virus arose spontaneously in nature. The researchers, at least some of whom presumably have more than a passing familiarity with virology, which is not likely to be the case with respect to the participants on this forum, have indicated a certain degree of surprise over these low probability events. That would arguably mean they expect it would be at least one in ten or less that they would encounter them or they would not register surprise let alone write an article that could at a minimum subject them to international embarrassment. In other words, people who are familiar with these phenomena are registering a reaction indicative of at least a “one in a thousand” surprise. If virologists believe it is a one in a thousand we would see this happening naturally, and the choices are a seafood market (which some argue is a discredited theory), or the only category 4 lab in China…draw your own conclusions. But keep in mind the question presented is not “what is the % probability the coronavirus was engineered,” but rather “is it more or less likely that the coronavirus was engineered”? These researchers are indicating it is a proverbial lead pipe cinch that it was engineered, using technical and polite language.”
The length of the four chains in question, while indicating each of the four bears no distinctive structure that could act as a signature indicating origin on its own, is a red herring argument. The issue is that there are four, in a row whereas they could have arisen anywhere in the enormous chain, that all four have HIV type function, and all four are in fact found in HIV. The authors who claim they have “clearly” debunked this argument have far lesser credentials than the original Indian authors, and are far less professional and polite in making their claims. Gratuitous use of the term “clearly” is a red flag of weak arguments.
@b
“Myth:
“There is zero evidence that the virus is from a Chinese or U.S. or other (weapon) laboratory and the claim actually makes no sense. The genome of the virus consists of more then 23,000 ‘letters’. It is significantly different than the genome of other known viruses. (Added:) It is not lab made:”
We offer a perspective on the notable features of the SARS-CoV-2 genome and discuss scenarios by which they could have arisen. Our analyses clearly show that SARS-CoV-2 is not a laboratory construct or a purposefully manipulated virus.”
To artificially create such a complex entity and to test all its variants would have been a program of the size of the Manhattan project and would have cost billions.
Weapon researchers are sane people with a limited budget. They look for methods to defeat an enemy. A virus that affects all humans indiscriminately but kills mostly very old ones would have no military value.”
How about a room full of ferrets instead? This is not something speculative. This is something that has already been accomplished – they’re simply getting better at it.
“This report is the product of a collaboration between a retired professional scientist with dozens of peer-reviewed publications and 30 years of experience in genomic sequencing and analysis, who worked at the Theoretical Biology Division of the Los Alamos National Laboratory and later helped design several ubiquitous bioinformatic software tools, as well as a former NSA counterterrorism analyst. It considers whether the Wuhan Strain of coronavirus (COVID-19) is the result of naturally emergent mutations against the possibility that it may be a bio-engineered strain – directly altered by genetic manipulation, subject to artificially-guided evolutionary selection, or both – most likely released into the public by accident since China’s rate of occupational accidents is about ten-times higher than America’s, and some twenty-times more than Europe’s, the only other regions with high-level virology labs….
Beijing has had four known accidental leaks of the SARS virus in recent years, so there is absolutely no reason to assume that this strain of coronavirus from Wuhan didn’t accidentally leak out as well….
Given that this outbreak was said to begin in late December when most bat species in the region are hibernating and the Chinese horseshoe bat’s habitat covers an enormous swath of the region containing scores of cities and hundreds of millions people, the fact that this Wuhan Strain of coronavirus, denoted as COVID-19, emerged in close proximity to the only BSL-4 virology lab in China, which in turn was staffed with at least two Chinese scientists – Zhengli Shi and Xing-Yi Ge – both virologists who had previously worked at an American lab which had already bio-engineered an incredibly virulent strain of bat coronavirus – the accidental release of a bio-engineered virus from Wuhan’s virology lab cannot be automatically discounted, especially when the Wuhan Strain’s unnatural genomic signals are considered….
– In 2002, Stony Brook first assembled a DNA virus from scratch, building a polio-virus, and providing proof-of-concept for the creation, alteration, and manipulation of DNA-virus genomes. Two years prior, a separate team had already built an simpler RNA-virus from scratch – choosing to engineer a coronavirus from the ground up, and even swapping out its vital spike-protein genes to make it more infectious. And a generation earlier, artificially enhancing selection by intentionally infecting countless series of lab animals with different viruses is understood to have created the H1N1 Swine Flu. Its Franken-genome has a mysterious untraceable genetic parentage and a “clear unnatural origin,” and H1N1 became the poster-child for a moratorium against gain-of-function research – experimentation that seeks to increase a pathogen’s virulence, creating a more effective double-edged sword to counter and learn from. A ban that was in place for years, but was recently lifted by the American government. In the case of H1N1, it wasn’t a question of if it’d escaped from a research laboratory, only whether it’d been designed as part of a weapons system, or been part of a vaccine trial….
– By 2015, conducting research that was met with an enormous amount of concern, scientists at UNC had successfully created a “chimeric, SARS-like virus” by altering the viral genome of a Chinese bat coronavirus’s spike-protein genes – sequences that code for the spikes that poke out from surface of viruses and allow them to unlock entry into hosts, in this case making the bio-engineered coronavirus incredibly contagious. This research raised eyebrows since it was clearly gain-of-function research, a practice banned in America from 2014 until December 2017 when NIH lifted the ban, specifically to allow research on this sort of virus. Looking at UNC’s gain-of-function research on coronavirus spike-proteins, which received its funding just before the ban was implemented and was only allowed to go forward following a special review, a virologist with the Louis Pasteur Institute of Paris warned: “If the [new] virus escaped, nobody could predict the trajectory.”…
– Another exceptional and atypical trait of the Wuhan Strain COVID-19 is that not only does it form its own clade, it’s calculated to have diverged from SARS and its other sister coronaviruses some 260 years ago. And yet in all that time, while it every other branch of the coronavirus tree was busy branching-off into countless variants, if it emerged naturally, COVID-19 somehow spent a quarter of a millennium as the lone known example of its clade, somehow not mutating into related lineages in all that time. Another simpler explanation is that this apparent hereditary distance and genetic uniqueness is the just the result of being altered in a lab. And although two distinct strains of COVID-19 have been identified, there’s no reason to believe this mutational differentiation happened before contact with humans in the winter of 2019. Additionally, when neutral sites, the specific points in the genome which most reliably show evolutionary change, were examined: COVID-19 looks even more evolutionarily distant from any of its possible relatives, which would make sense if all that evolutionary distance was gained by artificially accelerated generational turn-over in a lab.
– Also giving credence to the idea that the Wuhan Strain was bio-engineered is the existence of a patent application registered to a scientist from Wuhan that looks to modulate a coronavirus’ spike-protein genes – the precise region altered by Zhengli Shi at UNC to make a hyper-virulent strain of coronavirus, and whose alteration and adaptation would explain the Wuhan Strain’s unusual behavior as discussed above.”
https://harvardtothebighouse.com/2020/01/31/logistical-and-technical-analysis-of-the-origins-of-the-wuhan-coronavirus-2019-ncov/
There is no question in my mind Covid-19 was bio-engineered, there is no question in my mind Moon of Alabama is among the most valuable Internet resources for information and geo-political analysis, and there is no question in my mind b will not censor this post.
Posted by: Bruce | Mar 22 2020 17:57 utc | 37
The idea advanced on the last thread [by Vk and here @7 and 39 I think] that governments should be organized around something different than economics is sound and worthy of everyone’s input, ideas and objections; discussion is needed and welcome.
International human to human discussion should take place. Human experience with nation state globalism has shown just how vulnerable humanity is to organized and institutionalized corruption; the actions of the leaders of individual nations have shown the nation state system cannot be trusted.
The Covid 19 pandemic has reminded us all that we as humans <= have a right to a government that is of our collective liking, we have learned that governments must serve the best interest of the most persons, not special interest of a few. Governments which fail to serve equal right, open access and equal chance to those it governs are prima facia legitimates. Covid 19 brought the meaning of the principle of self-determination to the forefront. Everyone's life is challenged by submicroscopic beast. It takes the cooperation of all of us, to save most of us, and it takes the corruption of a few, to ruin it all, for most of us.
Human rights come first, long before economics. No economic rationale can support the delay or justify the cost of failure for those entrusted with the power to act, should they fail to timely act with diligence on threat that human lives are in danger. Experience suggest it is not possible to leave the power, function, and direction of government to those whose responsibility it is to operate it <= something very different is needed.
Covid 19 was a wake up call, that makes real the unfulfilled and failed campaign promises in a never ending trail of campaigns. Its time for everyone to insist on truth, truth in media, truth in political campaigns, open book truth from those appointed to government, and to bring everyone’s troops home. Its time for nation states to stop supporting the private oil and gas bandits, the MSM, or any other special interest, its time to make a single global currency that bears no interest and that does not require repayment of principal, its time for governments to stop arming belligerents, their own or those of anyone else (gun control should be transformed into between governments, weapons control and the persons of all humans everywhere should be equally armed), its time to stop one nation instigating or supporting regime change in another, and its time to deny government leaders from using the governments they lead, to enable private or corrupt profits. Every human has a right to life, liberty and to pursuit of happiness: <=governments were instituted to secure to mankind the enjoyment of the privilege of those rights; but it seems mankind has been lax in making these governments conform to their privilege of existence.
A $0 military budget, and no interest, no repay currency could bring the credit needed to create multi many places of employment, AWA fix ailing infra structures, improve access to, even make access globally universal. It could improve the quality of education and open to everyone<= fair play, access to capital (instead of venture capital expecting reward of profit, how about advances of capital in search of human progress). which could enable real progress on earth for mankind.
Its time to eliminate the dependency on, or even the existence of those monopolies nation states like to create out of thin air by using their power to invent by rule of law, powers that restrain true competition (license, privatized government ownership, special authority, patents, copyrights, and the private property ownership).
It time to stop over hyped , Wall Street multi global type greed which only exist because currency is used as control devise, instead of a facilitator. Nation states should facilitate humans to interact, in ways transparent to the nation state boundaries (Its economics, that encourages non sharing attitudes, that cause competitors to seek ways to use governments to restrain human inter action). Humans should try to replace foreign products with locally made goods and the foreign goods producers should be encouraged to make goods in places where the goods have a demand because demand produces jobs and provides opportunity, globalism organized to produce economic gains, often attempt to steal from locals the benefits of demand created by the locals. The local province rule should apply: that is if locals want to make it, multinationals should be denied. The billions saved to the global economy in unexpended energy consumption (no transport cost), could bring prices of goods and services to comparative advantage adjusted market price levels. I predict, the poor would prosper because they would have an opportunity to contribute to our global human society, and government would be re instituted to encourage and enforce equality for all to those it governs. Governments should restrain and deny wealth, but they should encourage and facilitate local competition. At one time people elected their representatives based on performance in accord to those ideals. Currency that carries no interest and that never needs to be repaid, challenges economic induced greed and redirects the efforts of mankind to providing that which is needed.
In 1949 the income tax in USA governed America was layered into tiers (where different tax rates were applied); the USA taxed those who made big bucks at 90% in its highest tier .. Seem to recall Briton had something similar [100% of everything over $150,000 pounds of taxable Income?]. From here => http://www.milefoot.com/math/businessmath/taxes/fit.htm <=i made a table
year rate@personal taxable income level
1941 81% @$5,000,000
1942-1943 88% @$200,000
1944-1945 94% @$200,000 The tax limited to a 90% effective rate.
1946-1947 91% @$200,000 The tax limited to a 90% effective rate (85.5% >credits).
1948-1951 91% @$400,000 The tax limited to a 77% effective rate in 1948-1949, .
1952-1953 92% @$400,000 The tax was limited to an 88% effective rate.
corporate rate from http://www.milefoot.com/math/businessmath/taxes/fit.htm I made a small table.
1942- 1945 40% > $50,000
1946- 1949 38% > $50,000
1950 42% > $25,000
1951 50.75% > $25,000
1952- 1963 52% > $25,000
1964 52% > $25,000
1965- 1967 48% > $25,000
1968- 1969 52.8% > $25,000
These numbers suggest a long winded story of useless corruption.
Posted by: snake | Mar 22 2020 19:39 utc | 60
Regarding one Tomas Pueyo, the Germans, one Ferguson fellow, the Black Swan 101 and their »collective strategy of religious hope« (copyright: Donald j Trump): Attention seeking & egomaniacs reign supreme these days. So supreme, that all reason is lost. All that’s left is hope. Pure hope without proof, hope with no science behind, no nothing. It is in fact: a pure religion.
“It will go away”.
Attention seekers /Pueyo, Taleb/, panicked politicians /@all/ driven by panicked doctors (w/o protection, looking flatlined @ these »curves) would like you to think that there are only two possible strategies fighting this outbreak.
Mitigation and Suppression-the almighty.
In order for you to swallow down the whole Suppression, they first equate »Mitigation with Herd immunity« (Taleb, Pueyo) and furthermore – they equate that with the British Government actions (Do nothing & let the virus roam free far and deep).
If you swallow both of these pills, then – by now – you should scream helplessly in horror, locked away in dread. For years 😉
But.
There was always another option: so obvious, it’s funny. To Optimize the rate of infection, based on ICUs (+/- number of respirators) /dt.
On average, let there be 20 times as many infected as there are free ICUs (respirators) – that is your 5% »critical rate«. Now, to achieve that, you first quarantine all those over 80 (+ all those from 55,60-79 with known pre-existing medical records, comorbidities – that we know, will complicate the infection).
Only then, expected rate of »critical cases« falls well below 5% (lets speculate to around 2% or even less – and less, with time). So now you can increase the rate of infection of all the 0-50 (less than 1%@risk) – from 20 (x) to 50 times the number of »free ICUs« (the »fake red line« of Ferguson and Pueyo and the mighty horror of Taleb). The true »red curve« is not flat. It wasn’t t flat yesterday, it isn’t today. At all. It grows with time. Almost exponential – within weeks. The dread red line is flat – only as long as the German policy stays 100%, brain dead. As a duck.
The number of »free ICUs » Europe-wide is free. Same – for the US. The »free ICUs » (medic teams, protective gear, respirators, medicine, beds….) should move freely within the Union and all around (yes, even to GB and back), so that no LOCAL health care systems go down and drowns, overwhelmed by German IQ. LOCAL means Bergamo, Merkel, not Italy. It could mean Madrid tomorrow, not Spain. And as far as your “Sunday elections” apparently caused the »sudden« 36% increase in Bavarian infection, well yes, Munich, the day after tomorrow (that one courtesy of Macron, no doubt).
Where Ferguson et all failed is they did n’t bring the (BoJo blown) curve down from 8 times the NHS free ISUs. It’s easy.
You regionalize the lockdown/s. Europe or countrywide.
Then, as your red curve slopes upward, one can release these regions »one by one« from lockdown. This is how your LOCAL health care system does NOT BREAK: This is how you free the industrialized regions first, to not collapse the economy and dismantle whole society into something lying in-between the fall of Rome and the beginning of the first Crusades. This is how you face the second wave, standing, not dead. Otherwise, wave#2 will smack you right »on the thick chin right under that emptied brain« – all over again… It is »hope« that it will not. It is religion.
This is the EUs train. The Brain-dead-train. To nowhere…
That is how you don’t collapse the HC system. Not of country, but of a town or two. Or even three at once. Of a hospital or two within the LOCAL outbreak. Then: you sent them to Madrid, then, dear German people, when your time is up, we will send them back. A mysterious and sudden 36% surge? Here, dear Munich, with compliments and thanks.
But no. This is how this Union came around to fully embrace the original »American strategy«. Lock us down, then hope… in terror.
That is the:
»It will go away«.
And then »it will not come back«.
Won t you? Will, u…
Please…
Posted by: 433 | Mar 22 2020 22:04 utc | 94
|
