Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
March 1, 2020
Syria – A Short Note on Recent Developments

The current situation in Syria is confusing.

The Russian airforce and air defense went quiet after the bombing of the Turkish infantry battalion. Putin presumably wants a deal over Idleb but neither Damascus nor Ankara are willing to agree to whatever he proposed. Unfortunately there has been no official comment on the situation from Moscow or Damascus. All 'experts' are currently just guessing.

Turkey used the Russian air defense pause to send armed drones behind the Syrian lines. These caused damage though less than Turkey claimed.

Some Hizbullah and Iranian troops were hit and Turkey has received warnings from Iran and Lebanon that this will have consequences for the Turkish soldiers in Idleb.

Today Syria's air defense was again activated and shot down 6 Turkish drones. The Jihadis thought it was a Syrian plane and celebrated.

Turkey responded by shooting down a Syrian jet over Idleb. The missile was fired from Turkey.

Another drone was shot down near the Russian air base in Latakia.

The Syrian army is advancing in Saraqib.

Syria's Foreign Minister met his Libyan colleague from the Libyan National Accord under General Haftar. They criticized the "Turkish aggression" against both countries and signed some agreements.

Yesterday Sputnik published a piece on Hatay:

The ‘Stolen Province’: Why Turkey Was Given A Corner Of Syria By France 80 Years Ago

Today Turkey arrested the Sputnik bureau chief in Istanbul.

Comments

Posted by: corvo | Mar 2 2020 15:26 utc | 191
“Israel using nukes, that’s surely non going to end well. It will be the end of Israel’s ability to ignore UN resolutions. If you think BDS is a problem, you ain’t seen nothing yet if Israel self-immolates on the international stage with nukes. Even the USA will turn its back in revulsion.”
This is, unfortunately, no doubt untrue.

When the Zionists use nukes we’ll see the US propaganda machine launch its most monumental campaign of all in justification of it.
Not just to stick up for the Zionist entity, but because the US government will then be salivating at how the normalization door will be wide open to its own discretionary use of nukes against non-nuke powers.

Posted by: Russ | Mar 2 2020 17:52 utc | 201

In my opinion, the Russian plan-minimum for the meeting with Erdogan is centered on…. Posted by: BG | Mar 2 2020 17:16 utc | 199
… on how is it better to trade tomatoes than blood, even if Turkey has both. Agreements empower to kwetch, IMHO tomatoes (nuclear power station, products in general) are more tangible.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Mar 2 2020 17:54 utc | 202

Canthama put his Twitter suspension this way:
“Thanks folks for the support, it was about time twitter suspended my account, my position against Muslin Brotherhood and its implications on global terrorism, Turkey, Qatar, apartheid regime, US Democrats, UK etc…may have reached some sensitive nerves. Many people will be suspended from twitter in the future as they can not stay afloat with the truth.
“I am not posting on GAB on Syria, may close that account as well. Igor, Indy and others recommended me VK, may see into it, but my primary place to comment and participate in a community will be at Syrper and Plato’s gun.
“Thank you for your support on twitter.”
So, as I suspected, Truth Telling was the reason. New Peto Lucem map shows the two major operational areas in Idlib.
Terrorist losses in their counterattack and then retreat from Saraqib will likely produce an opportunity to jump toward Sarmin and then South on M-4. Idlib City’s overall defensive capacity is also quite likely lessened by the losses. Outlaw US Empire says it will not aide Turkey with air attacks on Syria. IMO, the quicksand I described last night is swiftly enveloping Erdogan. The cards he hoped to hold when meeting Putin no longer exist. IMO, Erdogan’s political future is completely dependent on what occurs in Syria. His bluff was indeed empty, but the coffins draped with Turkish flags are not.

Posted by: karlof1 | Mar 2 2020 18:15 utc | 203

I’m afraid Russ is correct. Israel can act with impunity. If it used nukes, the US propaganda machine would successfully portray Isreal as the victim. They would receive a generous increase in aid from the US.
The way the OPCW scandal has been thoroughly buried is a good measure of the control the US media outlets have on public awareness. Only a fool would believe that they are living in a democracy. It is appalling. It is encouraging to find a site where there are people who haven’t been thoroughly indoctrinated by the US corporate media.

Posted by: David | Mar 2 2020 18:31 utc | 204

Tom_LX | Mar 2 2020 16:22 utc | 196
a bit rushed…thanks for taking the time to look.
The speaker, Glennon, only has about 25 minutes at the CATO video I watched, but the full video is quite a bit longer. I paid no attention to that stuff. This is what the choir hears – that itself is a justification – pretend you’re a spy. As to the man, that’s one thing, but as to what he says…well, it matches or dovetails to Michael Hudson’s thesis, and also the Keiser Report prognostications, and to Curchin’s mathematical analysis (Ages of Discord), and to what we see every day – a dual or two faced “reality” filled with “exceptions”. All these disparate examinations by differing approaches all describe aspects of the global ongoing conflict – the incipient civil discord in the domestic and also European street – the poverty…Keiser called one part “the Cantillion Effect” – but that also called by another, “elite productivity” (I think).
CFR? How does that matter? – I for one am delighted to know what these people say in their marble palaces in their class-based conspiracies. Beside, jerk or not jerk, if the guy’s right about what he’s saying, he’s condeming their class and their future… This implies they’ll use ever more force…trying to hold back the flood.
see> adeyinkamakinde dot blogspot dot com
“Glennon in his lengthy paper cum book “National Security and Double Government” identified what he termed the “Trumanite” institutions (in contrast to the “Madisonian” institutions of state governance prescribed by the American Constitution), an unaccountable collection of fo…. politicians whose payoffs are enabled by laws which allow unlimited electoral spending. It also has a pervading influence on the mainstream media regardless of the ideological designation of “liberal” or “conservative”. Thus we see Democratic Party Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, who tore up President Trump’s State of the Union address, rise up to applaud Trump’s …”
It was Adeyinka’s article that caught me onto Glennon. Curchin’s “Age of Discord” is so dense I dread the task of reading it. The cycle periods in all these evaluations match pretty well, and match actual reality over many years… I should like to see Hudson, Makinde, Curchin, and Glennon all together, sober, drunk, then sober on the third day…and film the party.

Posted by: Walter | Mar 2 2020 18:36 utc | 205

I’d add that Glennon’s wrong about the Trumanite origins…The double government is strongly present in the insertion of Truman, and the design to use the abomb on the Russians – which predated Turman’s VP status. There’s at least one sound historian (not PC) who opines that it was the double government that did away with FDR… Groves said in March of 44 that “the bomb is for Russia” (Alperowitz, The Decision to Use the Atom Bomb)
gotta go

Posted by: Walter | Mar 2 2020 18:42 utc | 206

@ Hassaan 75

Another good point made is that despite all Erdoghan’s shortcomings, he is an independent actor on the world stage, and not a CIA stooge. If his actions align with Israel at times, or with Russia at other times, it is because he feels his actions benefit Turkey.

I tend to agree. The denigration of Erdogan on here as a “Sultan wannabe” or a cartoonish buffoon who one can’t take seriously says more about the mindset of the scoffers than it does about Erdogan’s capabilities as a leader. Whether one “likes” or “supports” Erdogan or Turkish ambitions in Idlib is not the issue. Many people don’t like or support the United States’ imperial aggressions or its leaders but they would have to be complete fools to underestimate their cunning and ability to project force. The same is true for other countries, including Turkey.
If anything, the ritual Erdogan/Turkey bashing shows that the armchair strategists and troop commanders here are frustrated that things in Idlib aren’t playing out as they would have liked.
It suggests that they are emotionally invested in their preferred outcome and that this is clouding their judgement.

Posted by: Daniel | Mar 2 2020 18:48 utc | 207

>emotionally invested in their preferred outcome
I daresay some commenters prefer to see an end to the continuing senseless death and destruction. What outcome others prefer, I know not.

Posted by: Trailer Trash | Mar 2 2020 19:37 utc | 208

Posted by: Walter | Mar 2 2020 18:36 utc | 207
Thanks for responding.
I’m not too surprised by what he said (the first few minutes) in terms of how the US system works. What I can’t figure out who is he trying to reach or if it is a way to calm the upper level puppets (limited hangout) who are starting to understand that the system is completely rigged and are showing more signs of panic. I’ll watch the whole things and see if he will answer my question in some way.

Posted by: Tom_LX | Mar 2 2020 20:46 utc | 209

@177 Jackrabbit: “I would say “yes, definitely” if it returned fire was in the form of chemical weapons attack.”
But that is not the scenario that Lang is presenting.
I take it that you and I both agree that the Syrians WOULDN’T return fire using chemical weapons, and so any such use would be a jihadi false-flag.
In which case, why both with the nonsense about “return fire”? Just load some canisters of nasty stuff and fire it into Turkey.

Posted by: Yeah, Right | Mar 2 2020 21:16 utc | 210

@180 BG I have quoted Article 6 several times already, both here and at Pat Lang’s site.
There is no question that an armed attack on Turkish soil triggers Article 5. No question at all.
The question has always been this: would Syrian counter-battery fire constitute such an “armed attack”?
That phrase – armed attack – is nowhere defined in the NATO Charter.
Nor is it defined in the Geneva Conventions, nor the Hague Regulations.
AFAIK it is undefined – Customary Law – so every situation has to be judged on its merits.
Q: A full-on military invasion?
A: Sure, no question, that’s an “armed attack”.
Q: Some border patrols exchange shots? A couple of soldiers dies, whatever?
A: Definitely not. That happens all the time all over the world.
Q: Turkey fires artillery into Syria, and Syrian artillery shoots back?
A: I’d say “yes”, and “no”, respectively.
And the reason why is Article 2 of the UN Charter: “All Members shall refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, or in any other manner inconsistent with the Purposes of the United Nations.”
That initial Turkish artillery fire violates that Article, insofar as Turkey has no right to fire artillery into Syrian territory. Syrian return fire does not, being nothing more nor less than an attempt by Syria to make Turkey stop firing into Syrian territory i.e. an attempt to stop Turkey from doing something they are not entitled to do in the first place.
I really can’t make it any simpler than this: UNPROVOKED Syrian artillery fire into Turkey would constitute an “armed attack” on Turkey, but COUNTER-BATTERY fire by Syrians in retaliation for a Turkish barrage does not constitute an “armed attack” on Turkey.
I’m fairly confident all European NATO partners would agree with me. I doubt the neocons in Washington would.

Posted by: Yeah, Right | Mar 2 2020 21:33 utc | 211

Walter, Tom_LX, imperial origins:
Walter Karp: Politics Of War

Politics of War describes the emergence of the United States as a world power between the years 1890 and 1920-our contrivance of the Spanish-American War and our gratuitous entrance into World War I-and by filling in the back story of an era in which mendacious oligarchy organized the country’s politics in a manner convenient to its own indolence and greed, Karp offers a clearer understanding of our current political circumstance.

And if you like that, his take on the 60-70s:

Indispensable Enemies sheds light on political power in America. The reason we no longer understand why things happen as they do has one, and only one, source. We no longer understand who really has power in America. This book is an attempt to show as clearly as possible where power lies in twentieth-century America.

Indispensable Enemies: The Politics of Misrule in America
YMMV.

Posted by: Bemildred | Mar 2 2020 21:45 utc | 212

@ russ / corvo… agree with you both… usa has it’s head so far up israels ass, there is no light to be gotten in any of it..
@ 209 daniel… well we see it differently then… erodogan is a fanatic and a nutjob.. that he is in power still also shows he is extremely cunning and ruthless too.. a person can be all of this at the same time..

Posted by: james | Mar 2 2020 23:42 utc | 213

@ 13 yeah, right… thanks for that.. i see it the same way but appreciate the greater context..

Posted by: james | Mar 2 2020 23:43 utc | 214

Russ @203:
The massive propaganda campaign wouldn’t even be necessary. Americans never have had, have, and will continue to have no problem with the use of nukes, as long as they or their “special relationship” buddies are the ones using them, and the target is a hated enemy.
I should also add: Europe would whimper piteously but continue to support Israel too.

Posted by: corvo | Mar 3 2020 0:14 utc | 215

Yeah, Right | Mar 2 2020 21:16 utc | 212:

I take it that you and I both agree that the Syrians WOULDN’T return fire using chemical weapons, and so any such use would be a jihadi false-flag.

Yes, of course. Sorry that I didn’t make that more clear.
!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Mar 3 2020 0:24 utc | 216

My entirely speculative and subjective 2 eurocents about the USA and Israeli nukes:
While I agree that the initial USA government and corporate media might at first respond not unfavorably to Israel initiating the use of its undeclared and illegal nuclear weapons, the overwhelming and diametrically opposite response from almost every other nation will soon enough cause the USA to reconsider its public stance.
The USA may believe in its exceptional ability to go its own way and dictate its terms to everyone else, but it is only used to applying its bullying to individual other nations, not to nearly all of them at the same time. If the USA were to let it come to this, the defeat experienced would be shattering to its collective self-image and catalyze a downward spiral of waning influence as progressively more of USA actions on the global stage would be publicly scrutinized with successively decreasing inhibition.
It would be a dangerous time for humanity, it could be likened to an individual going through a psychotic breakdown.
I expect that the USA deep state (the real one, not the Trump & qanon caricature) knowns this, has already calculated its options and scenarios and will not let things get this much out of hand, innthe interest of self-preservation. The USA needs at least three more decades of uninterrupted societal devolution before it can spin out of control so badly that it really gets scary. At that time though, most nukes will hopefully have ceased to function properly due to neglected maintenance.

Posted by: Lurk | Mar 3 2020 0:28 utc | 217

Yeah, Right @213:

I really can’t make it any simpler than this: UNPROVOKED Syrian artillery fire into Turkey would constitute an “armed attack” on Turkey, but COUNTER-BATTERY fire by Syrians in retaliation for a Turkish barrage does not constitute an “armed attack” on Turkey.

Yes, that may be true BUT if the “returned fire” was chemical wmd (a false-flag) then IMO the outrage may overcome any legal objections to invoking Art. 5.
!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Mar 3 2020 0:30 utc | 218

@220 Jackrabbit No actor in this drama would be under any misunderstanding.
They would all know – each and every one of them – that such a chemical attack was a false flag.
So any “outrage” they show would be play-acting. Mock outrage so that they could do what they always wanted to do.
In which case I return to my previous point: why bother with all this unnecessary prelude?
Erdo could have simply instructed his tame jihadis to launch a CW false-flag against Turkish soil and *then* launched his “retaliatory” attack on the SAA.
Would have been much neater, and his claim to Article 5 protection would have been immeasurably stronger.

Posted by: Yeah, Right | Mar 3 2020 4:39 utc | 219

@203 Russ …”the US government will then be salivating at how the normalization door will be wide open to its own discretionary use of nukes against non-nuke powers”
Ahem. You do remember that the USA has already been there, done that?
They’ve done it twice, in fact
Not recently, sure, but the lack of a precedent didn’t stay their hand in 1945.
I doubt very much that a lack of recent precedent in 2020 will stop them either.

Posted by: Yeah, Right | Mar 3 2020 4:47 utc | 220

Posted by: corvo | Mar 3 2020 0:14 utc | 217
“The massive propaganda campaign wouldn’t even be necessary. Americans never have had, have, and will continue to have no problem with the use of nukes”
That’s likely true for the idea of using nukes. But most Americans are cowardly bullies whose belly would be nowhere near as strong as their malice aforethought.
I predict they’ll be highly shaken when a real mushroom cloud rises above one of these places where everyone knows there’s no two-tangoing “war”, just US/Zionist aggression. That’s when they’ll need lots of propaganda supplements.

Posted by: Russ | Mar 3 2020 6:19 utc | 221

Posted by: Walter | Mar 2 2020 18:36 utc | 205
Thanks Walter. I listened to the rest. Nothing surprising other than that an insider said it.
Best example of one of these Mandarins keeping a steady course is Cheney. OK he went to Halliburton to take a break and make real money but other than that he was their constantly steering.
At 34-38 min. mark Prof. Glennon says that which will not happen, an enlightened citizenry will grab the steer of the State and change its course that it is on Today. No Way Jose.
What is missing in his analysis is who enables the Mandarins to stay where they stay and whose interest do they represent. The third group is not readily visible nor visibly seen to be in control.

Posted by: Tom_LX | Mar 3 2020 14:33 utc | 222

@200
Putin diddling whilst erdoghan roasted plenty of gear and valuable soldiers badly damaged his image amongst the SAA, Hezb and IRGC. Not a smart move

Posted by: langa | Mar 3 2020 16:23 utc | 223