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March 1, 2020
Syria – A Short Note on Recent Developments

The current situation in Syria is confusing.

The Russian airforce and air defense went quiet after the bombing of the Turkish infantry battalion. Putin presumably wants a deal over Idleb but neither Damascus nor Ankara are willing to agree to whatever he proposed. Unfortunately there has been no official comment on the situation from Moscow or Damascus. All 'experts' are currently just guessing.

Turkey used the Russian air defense pause to send armed drones behind the Syrian lines. These caused damage though less than Turkey claimed.

Some Hizbullah and Iranian troops were hit and Turkey has received warnings from Iran and Lebanon that this will have consequences for the Turkish soldiers in Idleb.

Today Syria's air defense was again activated and shot down 6 Turkish drones. The Jihadis thought it was a Syrian plane and celebrated.

Turkey responded by shooting down a Syrian jet over Idleb. The missile was fired from Turkey.

Another drone was shot down near the Russian air base in Latakia.

The Syrian army is advancing in Saraqib.

Syria's Foreign Minister met his Libyan colleague from the Libyan National Accord under General Haftar. They criticized the "Turkish aggression" against both countries and signed some agreements.

Yesterday Sputnik published a piece on Hatay:

The ‘Stolen Province’: Why Turkey Was Given A Corner Of Syria By France 80 Years Ago

Today Turkey arrested the Sputnik bureau chief in Istanbul.

Posted by b on March 1, 2020 at 14:04 UTC | Permalink
Comments

@ James #95
Thanks for those thoughts, appreciated. Just to clarify, I didn’t intend to push a narrative, rather seek an explanation that fitted the behaviour. The legal foundation may not be there globally for USA overreach, but when US wants you gone, not many stand and fight. In Erdogan’s case he has been behaving as a cornered animal, and seemingly reckless (not, apparently as the survivor we know he is). I don’t think there’s enough solid information on the table at the moment, I wanted to put a thumbnail out now as his actions have been so far off balance. Most likely though we’ll have to wait to see what pans out, then work backwards from there.

Posted by: dennis | Mar 2 2020 0:03 utc | 101

With a bit of luck, if Russia is capable of shutting down Turk coms in Idlib they will do it. That would put the shaven and unshaven jihadis in a bad position.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 2 2020 0:04 utc | 102

@ RSH 93
Earlier today:

Russia Can’t Guarantee Safety of Turkish Aviation in Syria After Damascus Shuts Idlib Airspace – MoD

The Russian Defence Ministry announced on Sunday that it could no longer guarantee the safety of Turkish aircraft flying over northern Syria, after Damascus moved to close the airspace over the embattled province of Idlib.
Damascus announced earlier on Sunday that it would treat any aircraft that crosses into the airspace of Syria’s northwest as a hostile target.
This comes amid media reports that two Syrian aircraft were shot down in Idlib. Both pilots survived after ejecting, according to reports.
SANA reported that the “Turkish regime’s terrorist forces” struck the planes, without specifying whether they were Turkish troops or Ankara-backed militants.[.]

Posted by: Likklemore | Mar 2 2020 0:06 utc | 103

“The TB2 now forms the backbone of Ankara’s aerial operations. It can fly at an altitude of 24,000 feet for up to 24 hours but relies on ground control stations for communication. With a range of up to 150 kilometers, it can carry a payload of 120 pounds. The more than 75 TB2s used by Turkish forces today fly a total of about 6,000 hours a month and have become a game changer for Turkey’s counter-PKK campaign in the southeast. PKK members are no longer able to move in large groups as they did in 2011.”
This highlights the weakness of their drones pitted against a real army, as opposed to terrorist bands. They are too small to carry a militarily significant payload, and too large and slow to evade destruction for very long.

Posted by: nemo | Mar 2 2020 0:09 utc | 104

@93 Richard Steven Hack

Putin is now in the hard place.

And not just in Syria.
Another unanswered attack on ground forces or an airframe destroyed which involves many deaths ( as with the EWS ) and Putin will find himself in front of a wall in Russia.
Neither the Stavka nor the people of Russia will accept another backdown…perceived cowardice will not be tolerated at home.

Posted by: 07564111 | Mar 2 2020 0:13 utc | 105

Admiral Makarov and a sister ship are, we see, moving into position. wiki has a run-down on the ships and their weapons. Yes, they can carry kalibr
“cruise” missiles…but they can carry ship-killers too, “zircon”.
Apropos, we note the brave USA has sent a carrier “taskfarce” – what can go wrong?
Of course what weapons load they have is a genuine secret. A rare thing, and temporary, usually.

Posted by: Walter | Mar 2 2020 0:17 utc | 106

Erdogan’s Turkey said they wanted to reduce tensions in Idlib. Russia made a goodwill gesture. Erdo said ‘suckers’ and attacked. Result – second Turk convoy destroyed. Hopefully more will be in the coming hours.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 2 2020 0:24 utc | 107

@101 dennis.. thanks and ditto.. i agree with you.. my impression is erdogan has always been a bit of a loose wire… yes, he seems to have ramped up the insanity here and maybe it is only temporary, but i kinda doubt it.. maybe some of it is hidden pressure we aren’t privy to, and as you note – we will have to wait and see later when more info is available.. i have personally stated for years that i just don’t see him as trustworthy.. as @ 107 peter notes – he’s making even worse decisions in this time frame.. i just don’t think you can mess with russia and think it’s going to work in your favour… getting a green light from pompass means little as i see it..

Posted by: james | Mar 2 2020 0:45 utc | 108

In re My 106, an additional remark> US aircraft carrier group enters Mediterranean amid heightened tensions between Russia, Turkey in Syria
This is shaping up to be a major hullabaloo and rodeo. see> almasdarnews dot com
They seem to have rushed Ike outta the yard and workups.. gee, why?
“…Eisenhower began its deployment on February 20, immediately after completing its month-long certification exercises, and without returning to the carrier’s home port in Norfolk, Virginia. The Navy did not offer an official explanation as to why the carrier deployed without the stopover….”
More> “east of Gibraltar as of Sunday afternoon.
The ship reportedly has an escort of several other US Navy warships, including the USS San Jacinto and USS Vella Gulf Tomahawk-armed guided-missile cruisers, as well as a destroyer squadron consisting of the USS Stout, USS James E. Williams and USS Truxton destroyers.”
Gottalotta airplanes too…
I remember what Cousin Vlad said about when a fight’s inevitable…
Wally’s gunna go get a vhs of Strangelove and drink to da gudoldayz.

Posted by: Walter | Mar 2 2020 0:49 utc | 109

This is interesting. Video of several of the militants in the rubble shows them to have short hair, shaved, and in military uniform.
“Footage from the scene of application air strike air force SAR/RF videoconferencing on a group of jihadists in the area of Saraqib, Idlib governorate, Syria.
Reportedly, many of the militants were under the rubble.”
Video https://twitter.com/StasSwanky/status/1234241526299078657

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 2 2020 0:52 utc | 110

It seems to me the USA are using /bullying Erodagun as a proxy (there usual tried and tested trick)
Provoking Russia into retaliating against Turkey.
In order to drag nato/Europe into conflict with Russia.
We can see the ‘flooding Europe with refugees ‘ threat put into action.
USA will use NATO/Europe as an expendable proxy ! to fight Russia.
Q, will nato fall for that.
Russia will be aware of the above trap hence there recent caution ! Russia won’t back down.
Putin will false Erodagun to declare which side he’s on and act accordingly.
Trump wil not let the US become directly involved.
Turkey will be hung out to dry by US as all there proxy’s !
And Europe gets the refugees. What’s not to like ?
USA gets to look the fool that it is.
The coronvirus USA bio-weapon was timed to coincide with theTurkey ‘gambit’ .

Posted by: Mark2 | Mar 2 2020 0:56 utc | 111

Another video of the hit on a building. Looks to be turks. None of the militants have chin fluff and all are in uniform. Seems to have occured on the 29th.
https://twitter.com/StasSwanky/status/1234175359572217856

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 2 2020 1:05 utc | 112

Mark2 | Mar 2 2020 0:56 utc | 111
Brother, there’s an awful lot of weapons all focusing toward a really big showdown…I am not of the view that any party is in a position to back-down.
Ivan can wait and be sunk and wasted on the ground by Ike and the rest, or go for it and sink them first – or hope things cool down.
I agree otherwise, and yeah, the timing of the CV is cute, eh?
This whole global war seems entirely on a schedule…even though things are presented as contemporary choices and reactions…at least so far as the Imperial agenda goes, some might think.

Posted by: Walter | Mar 2 2020 1:10 utc | 113

Yep agreed Walter !
I don’t think NATO/Europe will fall for the US trap. Putting Turkey in the vunrable hot seat.
It’s a ‘Mexican stand off’ the good the bad and the ugly.
Erodagun will blink first and jump sides.
Why ?
Becouse all the other players know Trump /US are insane fools.

Posted by: Mark2 | Mar 2 2020 1:24 utc | 114

How many times over the last few years have we heard about a carrier heading to some trouble spot and boyo is the crap about to hit the fan? Seriously? The US is not going to fly in and rescue Erdogan or his terrorist concubines. The Empire has had endless opportunities these past 6 years to go after Russia and have declined to take the offer. Chickenshit anyone? Nato wants no part in an open conflict with Russia, so put the popcorn away.

Posted by: nemo | Mar 2 2020 1:25 utc | 115

nemo | Mar 2 2020 1:25 utc | 115 (man I hope yer right)
“Oh Honeypie, Ah done dis 100 times an’ ain’t nuthing ever happen'”
What crystal ball, Comrade?
But I will surely sleep better after reading your unsupported opinion.
I am sure that the nukes they’ve moved outta Turk and into dispersed depots in Eastern Europe are merely inert dummies and that the matters in Syria have nothing whatsoever to do with matters between US and Ru…merely coincidence. Ike was rushed out to sea just for fun. The W76 “mininukes” on Trident sub are only for show, and “I’m a big fan of nuclear first strike” was not what NATO CiC just said to the Senate…

Posted by: Walter | Mar 2 2020 1:37 utc | 116

You sound hurt? lol!!

Posted by: nemo | Mar 2 2020 1:40 utc | 117

I was down at the Dewdrop Inn and saw on the wall scribbled “idi trakhni sebya” I have no idea what it might mean, if anything…

Posted by: Walter | Mar 2 2020 1:56 utc | 118

US putting an aircraft carrier in the med is probably a sign that they will fight until the last Turk.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 2 2020 1:58 utc | 119

That mask is on crooked a bit. Just leave me out of the suicide note…..

Posted by: nemo | Mar 2 2020 2:00 utc | 120

I remember several times a carrier task force was sent to the gulf and Iran was about to get demolished…then nothing. They are sent to North Korea…and nothing. Hell, they may have sent one to Venezuela! Alas…zippo! The Empire knows Syria is lost. They only care about optics…and they care nothing about Idlib. That is Erdogans’s problem. He supported terrorists and now has no idea what to do with them. Like taking a lot of speed, he cant stop or he will die! Russia must find a way to balance his interests with those of Syria. It is difficult but something will come along. It will not be perfect but it will give time.

Posted by: nemo | Mar 2 2020 2:08 utc | 121

always educational reading turkish news / propaganda as the case may be… “The Assad regime signed an agreement Saturday with liaisons of Libyan putschist Gen. Khalifa Hafta…”

Posted by: james | Mar 2 2020 2:26 utc | 122

nemo
Erdogan believes a lot of the crap he says. To him, the al Qaeda and ISIS types are not terrorists.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 2 2020 2:26 utc | 123

As I stated here more than 1 year ago now and counting, Erdogan holds all the cards in this poker game.
Putin is the master salesman constantly constantly selling to all sides at once. Sorry fan bois, he’s not that into you. And his easiest route out of this mess is through the one nation and leader who mean the least to him economically….Syria and Assad. Both are in the process of being thrown under the bus. Subtly, cleverly and oh so diplomatically as is the consummate Russian way.
Russia will still control the main of Syria after allowing Turkey to cut off its own border area hunk…which the US and Israel too will gladly support as they get to keep their own newly acquired pieces of the prize…the oil region and the Golan respectively.

Posted by: donkeytale | Mar 2 2020 2:28 utc | 124

@ donkey – we see it differently.. what did you do with that silly rabbit? lol…

Posted by: james | Mar 2 2020 2:51 utc | 125

What I like about Putin is – He’s not Trump !

Posted by: Mark2 | Mar 2 2020 3:00 utc | 126

Mark2 – Putin is merely a wilier, smarter version of Trump…of course he appears light years beyond Trump in terms of political skill and even business acumen.
Not much difference though net/net when you boil them down to their respective essences.

Posted by: donkeytale | Mar 2 2020 3:15 utc | 127

donkeytale @124
LOL! For years we’ve had hasbara goofballs telling us that Putin is a betrayer or a closet Zionist. You weren’t the first or the most persistent.
But thanks for the laughs.
!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Mar 2 2020 3:19 utc | 128

The Turks have serious problems now having pissed off royally both Hezbollah and Iran. Hezbollah are amongst the best light infantry in the world; they almost invented urban warfare – ask the Israelis. Iran will supply the hardware. The fighting in Idlib will now go up a notch, and it seems Russia is back in the game. I wouldn’t want to be in the Turk army right now.

Posted by: cdvision | Mar 2 2020 4:14 utc | 129

For the first time since the Russian intervention in Syria there appears to be a *real* setback, as Turkey goes nuts and Russia – like a first rate professional bouncer – tries to calm down the knife-waving drunk but discovers, to its surprise, that the drunk is also on bath salts and starts slicing up patrons.
In this chaotic situation, out of nowhere, new posters arrive at MOA (and Syrian Perspective as well) glorying in the Syrian reverse and condemning Putin as a naïve coward. I’ll give Jackrabbit credit for staying his somewhat “trollish” and reasonably well-argued course over the long term. The rest of you can bug off!
What has happened over the past week is an anomaly in the big scheme and it will not last. Erdogan is panicking. Attacking during a truce is a sign of dire weakness, not strength. Adjustments will be made and equilibrium will be restored, with the balance forcing the Jihadists and Turks out of Syria eventually.

Posted by: Activist Potato | Mar 2 2020 4:34 utc | 130

can we just get a special channel for circe and the usa election 24-7 election stupidity? it would help here.. sorry for the ot which others clearly don’t give a fuck about..

Posted by: james | Mar 2 2020 5:07 utc | 131

Saraqib declared liberated again. Heavy tactical missile attack on Turkish troop concentration points near the village of Qmenas caused heavy casualties. Medivac helos allowed to operate. More will be known after dawn. Yes, Canthama’s Twitter was suspended for truth telling I imagine, but there are more sources. Most activity seems to have ceased until dawn. Syria’s use of its heavy tactical missiles is what I expected when I wrote my previous comment. As before, the Outlaw US Empire’s aircraft carrier just presents another target. I don’t expect it to get too close. What’s not being discussed is the open Civil War within NATO between the Turks and Greeks that’s been simmering for awhile and is about to explode.
Erdogan’s open alliance with the terrorists has left him alone on an island of quicksand.

Posted by: karlof1 | Mar 2 2020 5:12 utc | 132

karlof1
I have seen a few comments that things are getting a bit rough for Syrian refugees in Turkey.
I think Erdo intends driving them up against the border fence.
Erdogan’s making no new friends that’s for sure.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 2 2020 5:20 utc | 133

@132
I hear you, James, but open threads are for whatever, unless b specifically relegates all presidential election “announcements” to a specific thread.
I talk a bit about mandatory vaccines. Don’t want topics verboten in off-topic threads, thats all.

Posted by: NemesisCalling | Mar 2 2020 5:30 utc | 134

Activist Potato @130
Thank you.
!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Mar 2 2020 5:32 utc | 135

NemesisCalling @135: open threads are for whatever …
This isn’t an open thread and b did create a specific thread for election commentary.
!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Mar 2 2020 5:36 utc | 136

The SAA & allies continued their advance in Saraqib and liberated it a short time ago. Saraqib friend again. Great news. Kia kaha SAA & allies.
Andrew
🇸🇾
@AndrewBritani
·
1h
BREAKING:
TIGER FORCES PAGE:
🔴
#BREAKING
The Syrian Arab Army liberates the city of Saraqib #Saraqeb ..
02 / 03 / 2020

Posted by: TEP | Mar 2 2020 5:39 utc | 137

@58 Walter is incorrect to claim that the mutual-defense provision of Article 5 of the NATO Charter is incompatible with the UN Charter.
Untrue.
Article 51, UN Charter: “Nothing in the present Charter shall impair the inherent right of individual or collective self-defence if an armed attack occurs against a Member of the United Nations”
Article 5 of the NATO Charter is “collective self-defence”, pure and simple, and the UN Charter is more than OK with that concept.

Posted by: Yeah, Right | Mar 2 2020 5:48 utc | 138

@135 nemisis calling.. yes, thanks, but this is not a open thread!! that is the thing! circe has her head up her ass so far, she is oblivious to it all..

Posted by: james | Mar 2 2020 6:03 utc | 139

Like it or not the Russian presence in Syria is untenable against a full scale Turk invasion. As much as I hate the Turks, they would overrun Latakia and Tartus in hours if they wanted to.
Posted by: BigShawn | Mar 1 2020 15:03 utc | 7

I was kind of astounded by the positive reception people on this thread gave to BigShawn’s views. It is not at all the case that Turkey could waltz through the Syrians and end up in Damascus, if Russia stayed out. The Turks do have a big martial reputation (justified when compared with some others), but they haven’t really exercised much other than internal police-keeping for a long time, or beating up people who don’t have any heavy arms much like the Israelis do. The officer corps was eviscerated after the coup in 2016. They are still more secular and anti-Erdogan. More importantly, it’s still a conscript army, with the consequent problem of willingness to fight. The Turks don’t have capacity for a long-range invasion. They could take some territory, if the Russians left the Syrians in the lurch (which there’s no sign of them doing), but they’d soon be into local insurgency against the Turks, where there’s no local Turkish-speaking population. All of which is not positive for more than a limited advance, in the unlikely case of the Russia letting the Syrians drop. And we’ve seen already how the Turks are likely to have been exaggerating their successes.

Posted by: Laguerre | Mar 2 2020 7:37 utc | 140

@@Laguerre #142
You are dismissing the support Israel would instantly give to Turkey and it’s militants ?
Damascus would fall in mere hours under a hard Israeli rain.

Posted by: 07564111 | Mar 2 2020 7:59 utc | 141

Turkey is playing right into the hands of the American Empire’s divide-and-conquer strategem:
he Threat of a Russia-Turkey-NATO Hot War Over Idlib is a Godsend for US Foreign Policy
http://ronpaulinstitute.org/archives/featured-articles/2020/february/28/the-threat-of-a-russia-turkey-nato-hot-war-over-idlib-is-a-godsend-for-us-foreign-policy/

Posted by: ak74 | Mar 2 2020 8:00 utc | 142

Posted by: 07564111 | Mar 2 2020 7:59 utc | 143
Cr*p, honestly. Israel’s not going for a big war either, because they would quickly be stuck in Syria. Their ground troops are unwilling to fight, for the same conscript reasons. It’s not for nothing that Netanyahu has not wanted to go for action. 2006 was too big a lesson, and Gaza 2014 too. But of course I understand that Israel pays a lot of people to haunt the blog threads like you do. There’s been a long list on MoA over the years.

Posted by: Laguerre | Mar 2 2020 8:06 utc | 143

Why was Canthama’s Twitter feed suspended? has anyone been appraised of any specific reason?
It was one of the best for up to date news from elsewhere. He was doing a great job (except for the snuff pictures. Not a good idea to share those, IMO. Serves no purpose. May be that just gave an excuse to Twitter?).
Who else is worth following?
And please share any updates – those who are in the loop!

Posted by: Merlin2 | Mar 2 2020 8:06 utc | 144

Earlier al Qaeda types in Idlib were reporting a convoy was hit. A short time later there were reports of ambulances and helicopters at the border. Seems as though something happened but the Turks are staying quiet. Incident apparently occurred at Sarmin.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 2 2020 8:22 utc | 145

Hey Peter AU1 , Quick question; “Are you in Australia?”…the AU1 has me thinking that.
I’m in Sweden btw.
X-

Posted by: Veritas X- | Mar 2 2020 8:45 utc | 146

Veritas X-
Yep.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 2 2020 9:03 utc | 147

About the carrier, usually they can operate as a mobile floating “command” structure. Which is maybe more a sign that the US wants to take direct control of the Syrian arena. Particulaly as their bases in the East, now held by the “American Oil Theft Consortium” could be activated to provide some sort of Air (no fly) control over Syrian airspace.
They do have a lot of bases, airfields and radar systems already installed, (9-12 or more?) and they seem to have been reinforced from Iran. (which is one reason for the incidents around Qamishli, as it blocks their direct road route)

Posted by: Stonebird | Mar 2 2020 9:13 utc | 148

Interesting quote from Putin during a q+a:
“Russia doesn’t intend to go to war with anyone, but she creates such defense that it will not enter anyone’s head to go to war with her.”

Posted by: Egor68500 | Mar 2 2020 9:15 utc | 149

MI6 is saying there was an incident at Qominas or Qmenas on google maps which is close to Sarmin.
http://www.syriahr.com/en/?p=156171
“Meanwhile, several Turkish soldiers have been injured in rocket attack carried out by regime forces on their post in Qominas in Idlib countryside.”
The headchoppers reckoned a Turk convoy had been hit so perhaps on the road between Sarmin and Qmenas.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 2 2020 9:21 utc | 150

Yeah, Right | Mar 2 2020 5:48 utc | 139 ART5
That claim is discussed in Dean Acheson’s auto bio. What the Charter means with respect to NATO Treaty is in dispute since the documents came into Law. In the instance of course, since the Turkish forces in Syria are invaders, and also because Syria is not in Europe, the matter cannot relate to Art5. Interestingly, when, one might ask, does a Mutual Defense Treaty become a Criminal Conspiracy to Make War of Aggression? When that happens what does Art5 mean? Obviously Art5 under the latter arrangement would constitute proof of a criminal intent…and be inconsistent with the Charter’s most basic principle. Since NATO CiC claims first-use of nuclear weapons is a good policy and one for which he’s a “big fan” (recently to the Senate) it’s obvious that NATO has become identical with said latter form. Threatening first use is itself a prohibited war crime in law.
Not that such legalistic evaluations are important just now in any practical sense…but one never knows how the currents of Power will change, and sometimes criminals wind up getting treated as criminals. Times change.

Posted by: Walter | Mar 2 2020 9:26 utc | 151

@ak74 | 144
This theory has been doing the rounds for a while now on Turkish tv and is usually dismissed completely because rhere is one simple fact: Turkey will not go to war with Russia, even with NATO in support.
And in my opinion NATO is simply not going to go to war with Russia over Turkey – it would be the end of NATO.
Having said that, the premise that the US is wringing it hands in the hope of a growing rift between TR and RF is unquestionable, but again, both Russian and Turkish sides are long aware of this. To some degree I think this is why Putin would like Syria and probably Iran to become more independent of Russian support, Syria to stand on its own, and Russia will do everytjing to facilotatebit while trying to bring about some kind of accompanying political solutions … Probably too soon for all of that now though.

Posted by: Egor68500 | Mar 2 2020 9:28 utc | 152

@Stonebird #150
The USA could/would if they were serious in taking Syria fly from Icilik, Ramat David at Haifa plus the air-wings and use the carrier as C&C.
Turkey also could temporarily block the Bosporus to Russian vessels. There is nothing that either Russia or Syria could do to stop those actions without full conflict.
comment from a Russian troll 😉

Posted by: 07564111 | Mar 2 2020 9:31 utc | 153

There is not going to be any article 5. The rest of the NATO countries won’t risk WW3 for the sake of Erdogan. It became obvious back in 2015 after shooting down the Russian aircraft and Erdogan went running to NATO begging for help. They showed him a cold shoulder then and it isnt any different now.
Even article 4 has become problematic with Greece’s veto. The USA would like to support Erdogans war in Syria with Turkey as a proxy force, but not much more.

Posted by: redrooster | Mar 2 2020 9:48 utc | 154

@ 07564111 | Mar 2 2020 9:31 utc | 155
Lemme guess, you’re a USA-based “Russian troll” and your dual loyalty is not to “Russia”.. ?
Any big escalation of the war on Syria that threatens to eliminate the Syrian state, also involving active participation by Israel would push Hizbullah and Iran over the red line, because it would endanger their vital interests. Sure, that is Israel’s wet dream, I can see where you are coming from. But do you understand the consequences for Israel when both Iran and Hizbullah go all in with the missiles that they have been stockpiling? Maybe you do not see it, but the Israeli leadership surely does, because they have been very careful to not go beyond the minor nuisance value in their ongoing overt micro-aggressions against Syria.

Posted by: Lurk | Mar 2 2020 10:01 utc | 155

I see some do not like facts 😉
1) As yet the purpose of the Strike Group in the Med is unknown, so most comment is
supposition re: said group.
2) Lebanon is not going to risk direct conflict with the US, nor will Iran due to the
logistical nightmare they face.
3) Russia will stand down unless the US was to directly attack Russian assets. Egor68500
@151 correctly points out an accurate comment from Putin.
Do not forget that today is election day in Israel, things may change if this time they
get a result. bibi worse choice and benny only slightly better.
Still a Russian troll, but one who points out tactical truths. 😉

Posted by: 07564111 | Mar 2 2020 10:21 utc | 156

I’m a collector of old maps, terrestrial globes, atlases and books.
I’ve spent alot of time doing research, concerning ‘borders’, historically speaking.
Believe me when I say it takes…years to get-a-grip on…the who/what/where/why/how aspects of it.
Anyway, there is a very well-done short synopsis @Saker which I strongly suggest every-1 here read:
http://thesaker.is/the-gateway-to-idlib-goes-via-cilica/
Another quick source-map I use when dating things can be found here:
http://www.emersonkent.com/map_archive/ottoman_dismember_1683.htm
https://www.courses.psu.edu/ger/ger100_fgg1/ottoman1683_shepherd.jpg
Regarding Syria & the Ottomans, it’s pretty good.
Regarding the *politics* behind borders is a whole ‘nother story.
I’ve been studying that for over 50 years, and, know that it’s…complicated to say the least.
Whereas the expression “All Wars are Banker’s Wars” applies since, at a minimum over 500+ years.
Actually probably, since the 800’s. No joking.
X-

Posted by: Veritas X- | Mar 2 2020 10:26 utc | 157

Today’s headline on HispanTV:
“Syrian Army Recaptures The Strategic City Of Saraqib”
https://www.hispantv.com/noticias/siria/450400/ejercito-idlib-terroristas

Posted by: SharonM | Mar 2 2020 10:32 utc | 158

@ 07564111 | Mar 2 2020 10:21 utc | 158
The underappreciation of facts is entirely on your side.
1. You are making suppositions about the carrier strike group.
2. Israel has been hoping to butcher Syria for the purpose of creating a logistical nightmare for Iran and hizbullah. Any Israeli escalation will be met with a counterescalation. Tel Aviv and Haifa will burn. Maybe Dimona as well.
3. Remember the “beautiful chocolate cake” cruise missile volley? How the Russians negotiated a range of acceptable targets? How they helped to down the bulk of the tomahawks? Quite an active form of “standing down” that you imply here.
Anyway, enough with your damned facts. Happy voting today to you.

Posted by: Lurk | Mar 2 2020 10:47 utc | 159

@ 07564111 | Mar 2 2020 9:31 utc | 155
Sure, the bigggest problem is one of massive escalation.
Just a reminder that a credible estimate of all-out war gives 93 million deaths in the first 45 minutes, based on ONE small nuke, either fired in anger or by mistake.
However, the US likes to threaten others by moving closer to potential hotspots, and trying to get the others to back down. Chickens do it as well. Noticible efforts have been made in the China Sea and the newest exercises on Russia’s EU borders.
One other scenario is the Turkish-Greek hotspot. (50 ships from Greece to stop Turkish “refugees”). Which could block the Dardanelles for all forces in the area (including USAxis warships).
The carrier could also be used for selecting targets and providing and gathering “intelligence” from satellite/other observation, rather than by direct interference.
“Suppositions, suppositions”, (could even write a song about them.)

Posted by: Stonebird | Mar 2 2020 10:59 utc | 160

An AKP Regiional Assembly gettimg underway im Ankara and their leader Erdogan will be hailed and regailed as a hero.
He has already given one speech in which he interesrongly praised himself for having brought Turkey to the point of being able to protect itself without reliance on anyone and with the use of its own arms manufacturing.
Those who read my comments – and I really don’t blame you if you don’t, will remmeber that I’ve saif a few times that the greayest internal threat to Erdogan, albeint indirectly, is from within the ranks of AKP.
He has now unified those ranks.
At the moment the head of Teligious affairs, Görmez (?) (means ‘unseeing’!!! Apt when it cpmes to his blind eye to Al Qaeda and ISIS!!) is leading a prayer in memory of the 35 dead.
Could this be the reason for the 29th deadline? Could it be the reason for Russia’s ‘stepping down’ temporarily? Erdogan needed to quel dissent in his ranks? Of course Idlib is far bigger an issue, but the last few days … Interesting. Both Putin and Merkel have aupported these vain-glorious shows of strength before at Erdogan’s behest.
Erdogan is due to give a second speech soon.l to the whole assembly rhis time, ao expect a tempered but rallying nationalist speech full of self-praise for Erdogan.

Posted by: Egor68500 | Mar 2 2020 11:02 utc | 161

My Typing errors!!!!
Forgive me.
)))

Posted by: Egor68500 | Mar 2 2020 11:04 utc | 162

@153 Walter, we agree more than you seem to think.
Article 5 can only be invoked within the geographic boundaries that are defined in Article 6. Syrian territory is indisputably outside that area. Therefore I agree with you – any soldier from a NATO member state is fair game anywhere inside Syrian territory, and if those troops are whacked then that member state can’t go crying to Brussels.
No question about that – argy-bargy inside Syria can no more trigger the NATO alliance than, say, some French misadventure in Vietnam, or some odd angry shot between the Argentinians and the Brits in the vicinity of the Falkland Islands.
But there is the issue raised by Pat Lang – what if Turkish artillery INSIDE Turkey is firing into Syria and the SAA fires back? Clearly the SAA will be firing into Turkish territory, but would that amount to an “armed attack” on Turkey that could trigger Article 5?
I would say “no”, and I suspect almost all European countries would also say “no”. But Pompeo is likely to say “yes” along with every neocon nitwit within the beltway. As for Trump, well, who knows?
But, regardless, where I took issue with you is on another point entirely i.e. your claim that Article 5 is incompatible with the UN Charter. That is clearly untrue, and I quoted you the article of that UN Charter that makes this abundantly clear.

Posted by: Yeah, Right | Mar 2 2020 11:05 utc | 163

@161
1 ) Syria is not Russia (a fact I should not need to point out) there will be no conflict with the USA over Syria. That road leads only to hell for all.
2 ) Any attack on Israel is an attack on the USA…a Trump diktat
3 ) Israel is nuclear armed, I’m sure they thanks Germany for the Subs…who will take the MAD risk ?
Your turn. 🙂

Posted by: 07564111 | Mar 2 2020 11:11 utc | 164

Tell me if you send people onto a minefield are you not responsible should something happen?
The first refugee has been shot on the Greek border.
Turkey should be loudly condemned for its inhuman practises and extreme racist stance towards refugees.
Turks are cowards that hide behind lies and conscious self-delusion.

Posted by: Egor68500 | Mar 2 2020 11:26 utc | 165

There were various comments ignorant of the logic of limited war. Sure, Russia may nuke Turkey, Turkey can unleash all tanks, men and planes, Israel can demolish Damascus, but what happens the day after or, in Israel case, within hours?
Are the adverse consequences more valuable than putative gains?
One has to observe that war is nonsensical to begin with, but humans do not live by bread alone and express their emotions. But escalation can make the nonsense really, really stark.
Concerning Israel and Turkey, one has to observe common paranoia that “everyone is against them”. Do you think that “giving Syria to Turkey and head choppers” would make them feel more secure? No! Their long term paranoia is “second Salah-ed-Din”, hostile Muslim united and surrounding the small state and pushing it into the sea, so they sail back to France, England etc., encountering assorted misfortunes (like Richard the Lion Heart). What is the benefit of Sunni Axis over Shia Axis?
Concerning Turkey, if they do not see any “genuine friends” (and why!? aren’t we so nice?), they want to preserve options of playing powers against each other (there is also a minority that advocates more strictly pro-Western policies, but this is in part nit-picking on Erdogan, no one in Turkey wants to imitate Baltic states). Within that landscape, why should Russia even think about using nukes?

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Mar 2 2020 11:28 utc | 166

Sorry for a mis-editing. Surely, Turkey would love to play “second Salah-ed-Din” (even though he was Kurdish), but Israel would not like to see that.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Mar 2 2020 11:37 utc | 167

Peter AU1 @96 source ?

Posted by: murgen23 | Mar 2 2020 11:42 utc | 168

It seems that nobody here (or anywhere on the net) has bothered to read the next article in the NATO charter:
Article 6
For the purpose of Article 5, an armed attack on one or more of the Parties is deemed to include an armed attack:
on the territory of any of the Parties in Europe or North America, on the Algerian Departments of France, on the territory of Turkey or on the Islands under the jurisdiction of any of the Parties in the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer;
…

Posted by: BG | Mar 2 2020 11:56 utc | 169

@Piotr Berman | 168
“Sure, Russia may nuke Turkey, Turkey can unleash all tanks, men and planes, Israel can demolish Damascus …”
Great comment.
It is of course all he ‘inbetween’ that leads to such complex situations as we are seeing in Idlib for instance. While exerting or protecting our interests there are ever morphing and ever palpable limits as to how far we can go based on that “what happens tomorrow”. This leads also to seemingly opposing sides allowing concessions which I believe could explain what happened with Russia ‘standing down’ temporarily; it gave Turkey the means to mourn and exact revenge while at the same time strengthen Erdogan’s hand at home. (Pure supposition on my part of course and we shall see how thing span out here on in.)
We must also remember that those very interests do not create enemies as such they create friction which again one has to try and balance. Here the Turkey/ Iran situation is classic. Both very much need the other and despite events in the Syrian conflict and their wider regional rivalry, dialogue and cooperation in other arenas remains productive.

Posted by: Egor68500 | Mar 2 2020 12:04 utc | 170

Yeah, Right | Mar 2 2020 11:05 utc | 165 My claim art 5
I think we actually agree, or would easily come to agreement down at the Dewdrop Inn. There are details and depth of examination. And deep questions about the nature and qualities and character of the Treaties.
It’s a legalistic point. Art 5 was probably (though disputed at the time) consistent with the Charter when the NATO treaty was made…however this dispute itself is both interesting and legalistic – largely based on non canonical but public facts, one can see the US Ratification of both Charter and NATO as fraudulent… That’s one point. (A fraudulent treaty is not lawful). We know today (since Nuremberg)that planning a war of aggression is a war crime. The US was doing that, planning to use atom bombs in a first strike (on USSR), prior to March of 1944 (Alperovitz) – and these plans were put into action with a massive effort in material and preparations – even as these Treaties were worked into place…an obvious fraud any lawyer would pounce on. Treaty Law is all based on Contract. (see> “ABOVE AND BEYOND INTERNATIONAL LAW:
GEORGE W. BUSH AS THE AUSTINIAN SOVEREIGN” Professor Ali Khan,Washburn University School of Law, JURIST )
In time it became self-evident that NATO was, or became, is, a criminal organization engaged in planning and making wars of aggression. Examples abound. The recent “first strike” remarks by NATO CiC are a bald example. As are also the idiotic pronouncements and threats we are treated to by a fat guy with orange top, or the other fat guy…
The Charter does not, as a first principle, permit that. Subsequent aspects of the Charter cannot be applied if the first principle is violated thereby. Art 5 is therefor moot. If a Treaty (a contract) is entered into with fraudulent intent, it ain’t gunna protect that fraudulent party…but it may bind them…it’s all disputable.
Again the meanings were in hot dispute at the time, largely revolving ’round art5. I actually remember a little bit about the dispute, and legalistic arguments around me – I was surrounded with law professors as a child. It was mostly on this particular point…at my house anyway (sorta red-diaper times). They took the position that NATO was illegal when it was formed, since it was baldly intended to attack the USSR – an exhausted and devastated State, and thus a open violation of the Charter. They did not know about the plans to do a massive nuclear first strike – but suspected it. If they had, they would, in logic, have seen the Charter ratification by US (and UK) as a fraud.
I do take your point that, at least on the superficial level, Art 5 seems to exist within the Charter as valid (but inapplicable in the instance,as you say)
This may perhaps someday be argued in defense, if any war criminals use Art5 as part of their defense strategy at their trials.
There is no double jeopardy defense in War Crime Law, by the way – however the convicted may only be punished once. (Laws of War,Kagan (I think, can’t find the volume)
This may, in time, create a situation wherein a worried war-criminal may surrender to a “friendly” prosecutor and plead guilty and get his 1 day in jail… (If I was B43 I’d take the day in jail…just to play it safe)
About the Dean Acheson and the fraud (from those days) see>
coldwardiplomacy [dot] files [dot] wordpress [dot] com/2017/05/dean-acheson [dot] jpg?w=960
or search> “soviet poster art Dean Acheson as wolf”
………
In a related matter, it may be that Law itself is moot now, and for obscure reasons… see “ages of discord peter turchin”
I would like to witness a Meeting between Turchin and Michael Hudson in re the cycles, and how Debt relates (Hudson) to Turchin’s Cliodynamics
All the best. Wally

Posted by: Walter | Mar 2 2020 12:21 utc | 171

@ 07564111 | Mar 2 2020 11:11 utc | 166
There is no need to enumerate non-sequiturs.
Israel using nukes, that’s surely non going to end well. It will be the end of Israel’s ability to ignore UN resolutions. If you think BDS is a problem, you ain’t seen nothing yet if Israel self-immolates on the international stage with nukes. Even the USA will turn its back in revulsion.
Anyway, even nukes cannot stop missile volleys from lighting up Tel Aviv and Haifa. Most Israelis would have to leave an uninhabitable Israel and return to the USA after the infrastructure underlying their cozy 1st world living conditions ceases to function. For all the threats with nukes, Israel actually has nothing to gain from using them, only major losses.
At least you are not claiming to be a “Russian” troll anymore.

Posted by: Lurk | Mar 2 2020 12:46 utc | 172

I don’t believe this is the start of a major war. More likely an elaborate show in which the Turks demonstrate they are a force to be reckoned with. Turkish and Syrian soldiers had to die before the Turks pulled their forces back following an “agreement” with President Putin. The Turks will say they did all they could but under the circumstances they got the best deal possible. Who could doubt them when they sacrificed dozens of their soldiers.

Posted by: Michael Thomas | Mar 2 2020 13:57 utc | 173

Posted by: Walter | Mar 2 2020 13:26 utc | 175

ARTICLE
National Security and Double Government
Michael J. Glennon
In framing a government which is to be administered by men over men, the great difficulty lies in this: you must first enable the government to control the governed; and in the next place oblige it to control itself.—James Madison

Would love to hear what Jim would have to say if he lived today.

Posted by: Tom_LX | Mar 2 2020 14:02 utc | 174

Yeah, Right @165:

But there is the issue raised by Pat Lang – what if Turkish artillery INSIDE Turkey is firing into Syria and the SAA fires back? Clearly the SAA will be firing into Turkish territory, but would that amount to an “armed attack” on Turkey that could trigger Article 5?
I would say “no”

I would say “yes, definitely” if it returned fire was in the form of chemical weapons attack.
Would they wait for confirmation that it was not a false flag (as I described @14)?
I doubt it.
!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Mar 2 2020 14:22 utc | 175

Egor68500 | Mar 2 2020 9:28 utc | 154:

Turkey will not go to war with Russia, even with NATO in support.
And in my opinion NATO is simply not going to go to war with Russia over Turkey – it would be the end of NATO.

Turkey wants to sideline Russian air power.
They hoped to convince Russia that the Turk-Russian alliance was much more important than Syria-Russian. That didn’t work. Now they want to use the threat of USA/NATO intervention to pressure the Russians to accede.
I doubt USA/Turkey wants to prosecute the “war” beyond Idlib. Idlib + NE Syria + Tanaf + Golan Heights are all strategic positions that together strangle and humiliate Syria. For the ‘Assad must go!’ Coalition, they are non-negotiable.
And I doubt that Putin is under any illusions about the Sultan’s loyalties. He just now better understands how deep-seated those loyalties are.
!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Mar 2 2020 14:38 utc | 176

If one is engaged in an ongoing “supreme crime” there’s not much recourse to law as a protection…
……..
Tom_LX | Mar 2 2020 14:02 utc | 177 Madison…Kennan and the long telegram…spoke of internal contradictions in USSR and framed a strategy of playing the long game to exploit these contradiction…
Some may imagine that the mirror imaged US also has, ah, “internal contradiction” as that’s what Glennon seems to describe, again, politely. Indeed, the Strategy of Ru seems to follow Kennan’s advice, but apply it to USA… and we see how things are going…one institutional collapse follows another…similar to USSR in the 1980’s right down to surrender in Afnamistan…

Posted by: Walter | Mar 2 2020 14:38 utc | 177

The North Atlantic Treaty:
Article 6:
For the purpose of Article 5, an armed attack on one or more of the Parties is deemed to include an armed attack:
on the territory of any of the Parties in Europe or North America, on the Algerian Departments of France, on the territory of Turkey or on the Islands under the jurisdiction of any of the Parties in the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer;
—

Posted by: BG | Mar 2 2020 14:45 utc | 178

Michael Thomas @176 We will be fixed soon. The SAA is keeping its move forwards despite the losses. I thought they would run but apparently not. So next we must see the following : either turcs soldier appears on first lines in number to greet the Syrian or not. If not, then SAA will keep advancing and Turcs will keeps withdrawing until all these people reach the border line at which point, both sides, head choppers and finger nails collectors, are entitle to a good beer. In this scenario, I don’t expect the SAA stop at Afrin.

Posted by: murgen23 | Mar 2 2020 14:47 utc | 179

Egor68500 @154:

the premise that the US is wringing it hands in the hope of a growing rift between TR and RF is unquestionable, but again, both Russian and Turkish sides are long aware of this.

Yeah.
It’s important to note that the rift was always there. It’s just widened.
Even after warming Russian-Turk relations, Erdogan has consistently argued that “Assad must go.” And it’s been clear that Erdogan’s Islamist orientation means that he’s unwilling to reign in the Jihadis – at least until Assad is gone.
IMO Erdogan’s consolidating of his power after the fake ‘coup’ was actually a positive development for the ‘Assad must go!’ countries as Turk internal turmoil would likely have tied Turk hands.
!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Mar 2 2020 14:59 utc | 180

@ Jackrabbit | Mar 2 2020 14:22 utc | 178
I think we have seen the last of the “Assad gas attacks”, now that the subterfugue and outright falsifications have been traced back right into heart of the OCPW. Western MSM has all their fingers plugging the holes in the narrative management dykes. A new round of publicity risks bringing the unwelcome revelations more sharply into focus.
The stakes have increased significantly too, as now not only the reputation of the white helmets is in question, but the OCPW, and with it many more sanctified “international institutions” are under threat of being exposed as politically engineered instruments of consensus management, rather than objective sources of fact.
Regarding the Turkish artillery operating from inside Turkish territory while shelling Syrian territory, these are clearly unilateral acts of aggression engaged in by Turkey. Retaliating against this aggression is fully justified according to international law.
Erdogan has been propping up a quagmire. USA would like Russia to get stuck in it (which Russia has been skillfully avoiding), but the USA itself has no desire to fall into the shithole they helped Erdogan digging. Not while Trump wants to be reelected, and not while the USA are precariously trying to manage their de-facto defeat in Afghanistan, Iraq and Iran.
Europe is also beginning to realize that it is in its own best interest that Syria becomes a viable state again. Otherwise, millions of Syrians (and many more millions of Pakistani, Tunesians etc., etc. claiming to be Syrians) will be heading towards north-western Europe, further destabilzing the already precarious political status quo.

Posted by: Lurk | Mar 2 2020 15:05 utc | 181

The situation is confusing – and escalating. If what’s at stake is too high a price to compromise the ensuing conflagration will consume not just the region, but the world. The embers of history warn of what lies ahead.
https://www.ghostsofhistory.wordpress.com/

Posted by: peter mcloughlin | Mar 2 2020 15:08 utc | 182

IMO both sides will seek to limit the war.
A chemical false flag would likely prompt a massive bombing of Syria command and control (aka assassination attempt against Assad) and a “no fly” zone above Idlib.
After that, it would be a ground war between Turkey + Jihadis one one side and Syria + Iran + Hezbollah on the other.
Russian MPs and Syrian border forces will also have to leave the Northeast.
!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Mar 2 2020 15:09 utc | 183

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Posted by: Blogger Templates | Mar 2 2020 15:10 utc | 184

BG | Mar 2 2020 14:45 utc | 180 art6 Yes. But it cannot apply due to fraud and aggressive war. Moreover UN Treaty cannot protect as also fraudulently ratified. Not that it matters…they do as they wish – the hallmark of criminals and con-men everywhere.
as to fraud. harvardnsj dot org ARTICLENational Security and Double Government (Glennon) a 114 page pdf paper on the fraud…politely framed as is traditional in the Client Class that generally serves the oligarchy. (The Toga, the Bath, by these things…when they are actually the chains that bind them to servitude” Tacitus, I think.
also lecture @ CATO https://www.cato [dot] org/
events/national-security-double-government

Posted by: Walter | Mar 2 2020 15:11 utc | 185

I believe those two Russian missile cruisers are being sent precisely to deal with Turkey’s heavy formations and artillery, if it proves necessary. Russian Aerospace forces and satellites will be able to pinpoint Turkish assets inside Syria, and a volley of missiles from the cruisers will eliminate them. Turkey can replace its lost tanks with a bunch of the old models it has, but its heavy artillery and MLRS systems will be harder to replace, although they have a fair number of those. What Turkey is weak on is antiaircraft systems – which is why they bought Russian S-400 (which probably aren’t operational yet and certainly not against Russian assets in Syria) and are now begging for US Patriot systems. So if Russia uses its stand-off systems to hit Turkey either inside Syria or inside Turkey, there isn’t much Turkey can do about it.
Erdogan is trying to grab as much as he can before Putin reads him the riot act in the upcoming meetings, then hopes to hold on to most of it during future negotiations. Whether Putin will allow that is unclear.
In my view, to paraphrase Mike Tyson, Erdogan has a plan – and needs to be punched in the face. The only question is what will the US neocons do to trick Trump into backing Turkey, given that he’s a moron easily led by the nose.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Mar 2 2020 15:14 utc | 186

@ murgen23 | Mar 2 2020 14:47 utc | 181
Indeed, Turkish presence in Syria is illegitimate. It will end sooner rather than later. The writing is on the wall:. Russia will stand with Syria, FUKUSI will drop Turkey like a hot potato, notwithstanding vacuous soapboxing about “monster Assad”, “last hospital” and “moderate Syrian rebels”. Sure, they want Turkey to formally remain a member of NATO. That does not mean that Turkey gets any support on Turkey’s terms though. Turkey is not a first class member of the club. Not even second class, really.

Posted by: Lurk | Mar 2 2020 15:16 utc | 187

Veritas-X ref maps
And guess what kind of tribes were expelled from Medina (Yathrib) to Daraa, where the so-called revo started?
Much more than 800 years if your replace banks by merchants.

Posted by: Tomm | Mar 2 2020 15:24 utc | 188

Lurk @174:
“Anyway, even nukes cannot stop missile volleys from lighting up Tel Aviv and Haifa. Most Israelis would have to leave an uninhabitable Israel and return to the USA after the infrastructure underlying their cozy 1st world living conditions ceases to function. For all the threats with nukes, Israel actually has nothing to gain from using them, only major losses.”
This is no doubt true.
“Israel using nukes, that’s surely non going to end well. It will be the end of Israel’s ability to ignore UN resolutions. If you think BDS is a problem, you ain’t seen nothing yet if Israel self-immolates on the international stage with nukes. Even the USA will turn its back in revulsion.”
This is, unfortunately, no doubt untrue.

Posted by: corvo | Mar 2 2020 15:26 utc | 189

EU funds to Turkey?
ca 4 billion Euros
https://www.dw.com/en/eu-cuts-pre-accession-aid-to-turkey-by-75/a-52049775
(don’t laugh, “€150 million will be spent on strengthening democracy and rule of law”)
https://ec.europa.eu/neighbourhood-enlargement/instruments/funding-by-country/turkey_en
https://www.againstcorruption.eu/articles/eu-aid-turkey/

Posted by: Mina | Mar 2 2020 15:30 utc | 190

Lurk 183:

1) I think we have seen the last of the “Assad gas attacks” … 2) USA itself has no desire to fall into the shithole … Trump wants to be reelected … 3) Europe is also beginning to realize that it is in its own best interest that Syria becomes a viable state again.

IMO if this “conventional wisdom” really held true, then Turkey would not be defying Russia.
Point 1: USA has done everything it can to suppress the OPCW scandal and to negate it.
Point 2: Concern for the election of a Deep State spokesperson and establishment fixer is over-blown. War-time President’s often get a nationalistic boost in polls.
Point 3: Nuland’s “F*ck the EU!” still applies. The poodles will follow along as they always do.
!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Mar 2 2020 15:40 utc | 191

Considering 1-of-my-best *up to date* sources got censored last nite, here is a partial report from *Canthama* posted 5+ hrs ago @SyrPer:
https://www.syrianperspective.com/2020/02/aleppo-cleared-of-lice.html#comments
#311134
“The situation on the skies of Idlib has improved dramatically but one or two turkish drones manage to evade radar detection using the benefit of mountains and hills, a bit of patience for SyAAD to install proper coverage in areas that can detect low flying objects.
Two IL76 arrived in Khemeimin yesterday, it brought Pantsirs and BUK defenses for the SyAAD, they were brought for the frontline, should be installed and operational this week.
Erdogan tried to up his hand for the up coming meeting with Putin in Moscow. Russia is really up sent with Turkey, it believed escalation was going to be manageable, and at the end put Russia, Syria, Iran and HezbAllah troops under severe dangerous with hundreds soldiers unfortunately killed plus large losses of vital tanks, howitzers, artillery and armoured vehicles thus the sudden advance by the terrorists.
Weapons can always be replaced with certain speed but experienced soldier no, this week will be key in Syria, it is do or die for Idlib, but there is a feeling the meeting in Moscow will end with a compromise, for how long any deal with a terrorist leader will last is unknown….”.
More & more recent info can be found if 1 clicks on the link above.
X-

Posted by: Veritas X- | Mar 2 2020 15:54 utc | 192

To those saying Turkey can overrun Syria, Latakia and Tartus. That would be equivalent to Turkey making a declaration of war on Russia. At that point Russia has no choice but to go to war.
So no lol even a nutbag like Erdogan, I doubt he has that option on the table or even any leverage of that. In the end his generals would most likely not allow him to declare war on Russia.
Erdopiggys days are numbered if he continues on this path. That why probably he is now going to Moscow.

Posted by: Comandante | Mar 2 2020 16:17 utc | 193

Posted by: Walter | Mar 2 2020 15:11 utc | 187
Help me out here Walter. I started to listen to that video on CATO and the moment I heard CFR in the CV of Prof. Michael Glennon a question poped up. Why do I want to listen to this guy ? Help me as that thing is over 1 1/2 hrs. long.

Posted by: Tom_LX | Mar 2 2020 16:22 utc | 194

@ Jackrabbit | Mar 2 2020 15:40 utc | 193
1. You are only further illustrating my point. USA does not want the cover publicly blown on the OCPW subterfugue. But by now, there is a lot of material out there that needs to be suppressed and managed. This front of the information war has become unstable and vulnerable to flank attacks. A careless offensive could turn into a dramatic reversal.
2. The USA is on a tactical retreat in the Middle East and not because they like it, but because their overreach has become untenable. Apart from “chocolate cake volleys”, the USA does not hold a hand of good cards for a quick and decisive easy victory to present on the home front. In fact, if the USA weighs in to strongly, there is nothing to stop Syrians from attacking USA bases in Al Tanf and east of Euphrates. The USA has only enjoyed a free hand there because of the other party’s unwillingness to escalate. If that dynamic changes, body bags will be piling up.
3. Unlike the situation with Ukraine, where the EU only risked cheap gas deliveries (now to be replaced by Nordstream) and was presented with new markets and cheap laborers, here the EU can see no benefits and risks major political turmoil if not only more refugees, but thousands of certified terrorists flood into it. Already since the Brexit, the USA has lost influence over Europe. Presenting the bill for Erdogan’s ottoman adventures to the Europeans will badly harm NATO as an instrument of leverage for the USA.

Posted by: Lurk | Mar 2 2020 16:37 utc | 195

@194 Thanks for the update. No front-line reporters among the presstitute media of course, so we have to rely on you guys. Keep up the good work!
It would be most unfortunate if Putin agreed some kind of “compromise” with Erdoggy. In his treatment of refugees as pawns and his gratuitous assault on Syria, with irredentist claims on Aleppo, Erdoggy shows all the manners and traits of Adolf H. Putin must stand fast and tell Erdoggy any Turkish armour, airforce or navy in Syria will be blasted out of existence. No ifs and no buts. If Putin appeases and compromises an inch, Erdoggy will take a mile . . and still want more. He has to be stopped. For good.

Posted by: John Marks | Mar 2 2020 16:39 utc | 196

Apart from the 8 IL76s loaded most probably with airdefence systems, also 2 TU154s with “unknown” passengers arived. Afaik, the planes used Turkish airspace.
In my opinion, the Russian plan-minimum for the meeting with Erdogan is centered on the opening of M4 and M5 for commercialn and civilian traffic, which will finally help the Syrian economy and trade through the seaports. Knowing who lives in Jisr al Shugur at the moment, Turkey cannot do it on its own, so there will need to be pacification there. I don’t see Erdo getting major concessions after all his bluster and military intervention on the side of terrorists for the last few weeeks.

Posted by: BG | Mar 2 2020 17:16 utc | 197

I still think that Erdy ordered the invasion under duress, with Uncle Sam holding a gun to his head. The US policy continues to be “controlled chaos”, so it matters little who actually wins or loses particular engagements. After the chaos of recent days, perhaps his appetite for blood has been sated for the moment, giving Putin enough time to arrange something with Erdy on March 5.
It’s a funny thing about vassals: after a while they start to resent being used. Erdy must be smart enough to know that Uncle Sam always backstabs vassals and throws away tools when no longer useful, since that is the way Erdy operates as well.
In the end the Turks will withdraw and blame it on Uncle Sam who refused to deliver air defense. The depressing part is that so many serfs have to die while Dear Leaders play their Important Games.

Posted by: Trailer Trash | Mar 2 2020 17:32 utc | 198

Sheer genius. I couldn’t accept the view of those who thought Erdie had ‘called Russia’s bluff’. Thnat Russia had backed off and allowed the Syrians to loose forces. I’ve played too much chess not to see a master strategy in play. Russian ‘Police’ are entering the critical city. No ‘Policeman’ can allow crooks to impede traffic and trade. (Which is the Zio Nazi Turk mission 😉 ) Cavalry to the rescue! https://www.rt.com/news/482134-russia-military-police-saraqeb/

Posted by: Ralph Conner | Mar 2 2020 17:41 utc | 199

The next couple of weeks, depending on how talks turn out with Ergo, could see Putin rightfully emerging as the world’s premier living statesman, a stature he can share with someone like George Washington. Of course the U.S. establishment will never admit this, stuck in its cold war mentality of 50 years ago, stuck with a dumb orange turd they elected as their leader

Posted by: Carciofi | Mar 2 2020 17:45 utc | 200

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