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March 10, 2020
Open Thread 2020-19
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Leaked Covid-19 Documents: Hospitals Prep For 96 Million Infections & 480K Deaths
This “best guess” estimate made by a professor at the University of Nebraska Medical Center (Omaha) in late February was that the US would experience 96 million coronavirus infections, 4.8 million hospitalizations from the infection, and 480,000 deaths.
However, it assumed a R0 value that was much lower than that being observed (assumed R0 of 2.0, but observed value 2-3 times higher, RO of 4.7 to 6.6). Thus the predicted doubling time (time required for the number of people infected with the virus to double) of 7-10 days was almost surely too low, observed values are more like 2.4 to 3 days, certainly no more than 6 days.
Assumed hospitalization rate of 5%, but observed values are at least double that, 10% to 15%.
Thus I think it is safe to say that these estimates are likely to be too low.
Plus, it is clear that the US healthcare system is likely to be overwhelmed, since there are less than 1 million beds (981.000) and under normal circumstances about 330,000 beds are open (there are 94,000 ICU beds in the system). This will make it impossible to hospitalize a large percentage of those who become ill and that will increase the case fatality rates.
If China is unable or unwilling to ship medications to the US (the US gets 97% of its meds from China), this will vastly complicate treatments. Because India is also dependent on China for 80% of is meds (or the ingredients for them), India will not be able to replace Chinese meds (India has already placed restrictions on export of some meds).
This seems to me to be a grim picture. I would think that top US politicians should be hearing these stats, but their reactions have served only to make the situation much worse, because drastic actions were needed early on if there was to be any real chance to prevent a massive outbreak.
You can draw your own conclusions about what thec consequences will be on a civil scale.
Posted by: Perimetr | Mar 11 2020 14:45 utc | 101
Posted by: Walter | Mar 11 2020 13:06 utc | 96
Indeed, something is going on. Given the fecklessness, ignorance, and shallow thought processes of our “elites”, I expect rolling disruption for years to come. I was trying to decide if Trump is our Gorbachev or our Yeltsin (Obama the failed reformer, Trump the sellout buffoon), now I think he gets to be Herbert Hoover. That makes Obama Cal Coolidge. The farce version. It’s been a long time coming, and the future is not the past, but something like that. History does not repeat, but it rhymes sometimes.
I have to allow that the adjustments being made in our Middle East posture likely result from Trump doing “deals”, and Jeffery etc. thrashing around trying to correct the results of their past dumb policies. Their faith in the utility of criminality seems bottomless. I suppose it’s all they have.
I’ve been sequestering myself for a few weeks now. I’m an introvert, so it’s easy, but I’ve upped my game since it was clear Corona was going to escape China.
I expect well-governed states to handle it as well as may be, I expect rolling chaos and buffoonery here, as what remains of our competent technical elite has no power, and that will not be changed until things get much worse, as they will.
A few links, Pepe tells what he knows about the oil price collapse, and takes note that it might be good for the poor:
https://consortiumnews.com/2020/03/10/pepe-escobar-how-black-swans-are-shaping-planet-panic/
Jeffrey’s continued inability to see beyond his nose in Syria:
https://journal-neo.org/2020/03/10/us-israel-predictably-behind-turkish-aggression-in-syria/
More of Trump’s inability to keep more than one ball in the air at a time:
Trump Splashes Into Nile Dispute to Gain Leverage in Middle East
Regards.
Posted by: Bemildred | Mar 11 2020 15:00 utc | 102
vk @10
Can you tell me exactly when exactly we, as a society, were free of “superstition, belief in magic and miracles, ignorance, racial and religious intolerance, and abject sexism?”
Todays’ society is no exception. Try discussing migration, multiculturalism, climate change and you will meet intolerance. And one might argue expectations of science and technology – say, renewables – borders on belief in magic and miracles.
Posted by: passerby | Mar 11 2020 15:09 utc | 103
Re” ‘R’ values, these will depend among other things on population density and social habits, so it’s not useful to spend too much time over the details, what is clear is that it is very contagious in the right circumstances, kills plenty, and as b says, is new, and that’s what matters. The details will sort out over time, and it will all be clear as day in retrospect.
Posted by: Bemildred | Mar 11 2020 15:13 utc | 104
I cannot make heads or tales of this virus.
If it is truly as lethal as it is purported to be, why is the mortality on cruise ships so low?
Looking for input here
g
Posted by: guidoamm | Mar 11 2020 15:23 utc | 105
It seems clear that Western govs must have known, as everyone here, by the beginning of February, that it was not going to be contained and that elderlies would take a toll. They decided that the later the better, knowing that airlines would be the first impacted (are western economies based mainly on big pharma, weapons sales, and tourism?). It also means they decided to sacrify the 80+ knowingly.
Posted by: Mina | Mar 11 2020 15:29 utc | 106
re Bemildred @104
You’re right in the sense that it is silly to worry about exact R0 (R naught)values, but they are important in terms of the doubling time of the disease, as well as the need to get the R0 value below 1, which is what it takes to halt the disease over time. I would also say that the coronavirus is highly contagious under *most* circumstances (rather than the “right” circumstances). Unless you are standing in a blast freezer, you have a good chance of getting infected from an aerosol from an infected person who is within 1-2 meters of you. And that person doesn’t even have to be symptomatic, apparently.
I brought those values up simply to show that the estimates from UNMC were probably too conservative. If you do the math, having 2000 infected people in the US during the first week in March could easily result in 1 to 8 million people infected by the end of May (using a doubling time of 6 days). The hospitals and universities are now starting to try to figure out what in hell they are going to do. I am glad that at least the disease seems to be not a problem for the young and healthy. But the Grim Reaper will be coming to visit many of us older folks this year.
Posted by: Perimetr | Mar 11 2020 15:34 utc | 107
Another reason the West is dead jealous and repeats every day “it’s China’s fault” “Putin is bad” is that it is now for everyone to see that the precautions taken by the Chinese (full outfit, googles etc) ARE NOT AVAILABLE to the medics in Europe (what about the US?) even for those who are sent to visit or receive infected people (until they are put in isolation at the hospital).
Posted by: Mina | Mar 11 2020 15:48 utc | 108
This is hilarious:
£22bn tax cut scandal surfaces in the UK just as Chancellor presents budget
As the UK Chancellor presents his budget, there is the scandal of £22bn handout in tax relief to retiring business owners over the last ten years. The Resolution Foundation found that so-called Entrepreneurs Relief cost the taxpayer more than annual medical research!
This ludicrous tax measure was introduced by dimwit New Labour chancellor Alastair Darling to encourage innovation!
This is a classic “where were the legions when Rome fell?” moment. You couldn’t make this up.
Posted by: Perimetr | Mar 11 2020 15:34 utc | 107
We do not disagree, and I’m not criticizing you, that the R values depend on what we do is the point I want to make, and we should focus on bringing it down. I give the Chinese a lot of credit for getting a handle on it as quick and forcefully as they did. Very old school, but the only way in the circumstances. I’m almost 75, with a history of damaging mycobacterial pneumonia (walking pneumonia) 20 years back, so I’m definitely in the high risk demographic.
Posted by: Bemildred | Mar 11 2020 15:53 utc | 110
Concerning taking “drastic action” in the Untied States, how does anyone suggest that be done in a capitalist society? The government cannot order private industry around like China does with SOEs. The US government doesn’t even have the means to build an emergency outhouse, much less a hospital. Try to imagine how the following conversation would end: “Hey, Hospital Corporation of America? This is the President of the Untied States. We want you to build a new hospital. We’ll even give you a tax break if you can do it in a couple weeks!”
Yeah, no-go on that “drastic action”, and it is not even Trump’s fault. After a couple generations of outsourcing government responsibilities and trying to downsize the government to where it can be drowned in a bathtub, the US government simply no longer has the means to do anything useful. The same is largely true of the private sector in the US as well, with much of the industrial capabilities (you know, the part of the economy that actually does useful and constructive things) outsourced to cheaper labor markets abroad.
You want “drastic action”? Step #1 is nationalizing big chunks of the private sector. I don’t think that even Bernie Sanders would go along with that, though, so you’re just going to have to wait for Market™ solutions.
Posted by: William Gruff | Mar 11 2020 16:07 utc | 111
re Bemildred @ 110
Vitamin C Protects Against Coronavirus
Take lots of vitamin C. (I would vitamin E to the list)
Vitamin C: 3,000 milligrams (or more) daily, in divided doses. (1 gram 3 times a day, or more)
Vitamin D3: Start with 5,000 IU/day for two weeks, then reduce to 2,000)
Magnesium: 400 mg daily (in citrate, malate, chelate, or chloride form)
Zinc: 20 mg daily
Selenium: 100 mcg (micrograms) daily
Posted by: Perimetr | Mar 11 2020 16:14 utc | 112
US troops ‘protecting’ the Syrian oilfields are being attacked by drones. Now why would anybody want to do something so unfreindly?
Posted by: dh | Mar 11 2020 16:18 utc | 113
The only humorous explanation someone has found to the current “War of the Toilet Paper” which break out amongst some peoples as outcome from the COVID-19 epidemic….
https://twitter.com/Obozrevatell/status/1236973698042691584
Of course, there is no bidet anymore…
But how about a low part shower as it is the custom in the Arab world?
As someone said at a tie, ther is no need to worry for things which have no importance…
Posted by: H.Schmatz | Mar 11 2020 16:19 utc | 114
In stark contrast to the utter lack of leadership on the COVID-19 by TrumpCo, the commissioners of the major sports leagues located within the Outlaw US Empire are going to act together on the issue which will likely eventually entail players performing in arenas sans spectators. Some of the college conferences are doing this, primarily on the East Coast, by suspending their conference tournaments. However, so far there’s been no word from the NCAA about its two upcoming tournaments which total 132 games played in front of @2+million fans, not including other tournaments like the NIT that will be played before @1 million fans in arenas where fans almost sit atop each other.
Another area I want to illuminate people about are the children’s play areas at fastfood places like McDonalds which are generally never sanitized, and the workers charged with such a duty are certainly not provided with the proper protective gear. Sure, schools get shutdown but what about public and quasi-public playgrounds. And this isn’t just a problem within the Outlaw US Empire as such play areas are now global.
How those two issues and many others get addressed will depend on the nature of the society involved as I wrote yesterday. There’re numerous businesses that never get a sanitation inspection–charter fishing boats, movie theaters, and retail stores of all types readily come to mind–along with people who never give proper sanitation & prevention behavior any thought whatsoever: think of all those sneezers and coughers who never cover their mouths and just expectorate into the air. Oh, and we shouldn’t forget the currency or payment kiosks we use when shopping. If you’re now alert and thinking about the above and more, then I’ve done what I intended–raise awareness as many of us here including me are within the most vulnerable age grouping of 50+.
Okay – so what exactly is the ‘test’ they are doing to specify coronavirus – is it a blood test, a urine test or is it confirmed clinically – and if so what exactly is the specific nature of the test? This certainly passes the Hysteria 2020 test!
Posted by: bob | Mar 11 2020 17:06 utc | 116
William Gruff @111–
Yes, it’s certainly a Buyer Beware situation given the Empire lacks the Systems required to protect its #1 asset–its human capital. Some corporations are acting responsibly by telling their staffs to work from home and even compensating local businesses that exist to support those workers and other efforts beyond those. What these corporate actions highlight is the paucity of what stands for a safety net within the Outlaw US Empire and the failure or lack of the Systems required for the proper care and advancement of the populace. As I wrote yesterday, a great deal of political hay ought to be made using the current crisis as an excellent example of what we don’t have and what must be done if we’re to consider ourselves ethical and moral. But of course, those two values must be displayed by those in leadership positions, and of course we don’t see anything of the sort, which is why all the China and Russia bashing.
It’s often said people get the government they deserve. Is it the overall lack of morality displayed by the polity that’s to blame? Or is the polity too cowardly to stand up for itself and do what it knows is morally correct? I know many millions are completely brainwashed and are incapable of making a moral choice thus defeating their own interests, so perhaps a brutal crisis that’s national in extent is required to educate those millions and get them to change their attitudes.
Half of nCOV deaths in China study had hypertension source
Still not clear if it is hypertension, smoking, both, neither – smoking is a major risk factor for heart disease, as is hypertension.
The very pronounced age demographic does support the likelihood that nCOV places enormous strain on the pulmonary system – which declines with age but dramatically with smoking and/or hypertension.
Posted by: c1ue | Mar 11 2020 19:40 utc | 118
>The government cannot order private industry around like China does with SOEs.
Well, actually…
on March 8, 1952, President Truman nationalized the American steel industry.
On June 2, 1952, Justice Hugo Black, writing … in Youngstown Sheet & Tube Co. v. Sawyer, ruled that the president lacked the authority to seize the steel mills. The government returned the mills to their owners hours later, and the Steelworkers went on strike for 51 days.
(from Wikipedia)
As long as the military and the spooks are willing to obey orders, the President can do what he likes, at least for a while…
Posted by: Trailer Trash | Mar 11 2020 20:13 utc | 119
Breaking: Three killed, including US troops, in rocket attack on Iraq base
Posted by: Bemildred | Mar 11 2020 20:55 utc | 120
The US has already launched multiple reprisal air strikes in both Syria and Iraq
Posted by: Kadath | Mar 11 2020 22:01 utc | 121
Trailer Trash @119: “Well, actually…”
Well, actually Truman couldn’t do it without a near-revolution. What part of “The government returned the mills to their owners hours later…” is ambiguous? It was workers striking that got shit done, not Truman flapping his lips and waving his arms.
Posted by: William Gruff | Mar 11 2020 23:08 utc | 122
Congress passes bill limiting Trump’s ability to take military action against Iran
The House has passed a resolution aimed at constraining President Trump’s ability to take military action against Iran, sending it to the president’s desk for his expected veto.
In a largely party-line 227-186 vote, the House approved the resolution that would direct the president to “terminate the use of United States Armed Forces for hostilities against” Iran unless Congress specifically authorizes it. Six Republicans voted for the measure.
The Senate passed the resolution in a 55-45 vote last month, with eight Republicans siding with Democrats to support it.[.]
Neither chamber has the votes to override Trump’s veto. The Dems, having lost the impeachment battle, will likely take the War Powers issue to the Supremes.
Anyone noticed, with Biden in the lead for the ticket, the Dems are not planning on defeating Trump in November.
Silly party.
Posted by: Likklemore | Mar 11 2020 23:10 utc | 123
I’m sorry, karlof1 @ 117, I do not buy it that people get the government they deserve. It all depends on which group of people you are suggesting is doing the deserving. We are looking at a government in the US of A which cares only about the very very rich, and skews all of its programs in their favor. “We are the 99 percent” from back in the day now ought to read “We are the 99.99 percent” – when the political race heats up I plan to plant my old sign firmly in the front yard, because that is the only truth we, the majority of USAians all can recognize.
This is not about ignorance or weakness or immorality. This is about power. The people do not have it; they do not have the respect of the leadership in any way, shape, form. Sure, they are flailing about — we are flailing about!!! An horrible injustice has been perpetrated upon the vast majority of the population — do you know how to fix it? I don’t! We don’t!
If anything, the population has been too nice, too moral, too democratic, too in love with its honorable institutions of government to believe that those we trusted and expected to behave as we would behave in their position …don’t!
Regular folk, whatever their cultural background or beliefs are for the most part doing the best they can with what they know, peacefully!!! And it’s just like me with the mouse invasion I’m currently coping with. Heck, I don’t want to kill them — I’m trying everything not to do that! But all my plantings are being dug up and eaten, so what’s a body to do???
I am not saying we have to wipe out our current leadership, but it is very hard to forgive them (and that’s all of them) for what they have done to this country. They, not us!!! We are the 99.99 percent!
Thanks very much for linking to PUtin’s address to the Duma. There is a balm in Gideon…
Posted by: juliania | Mar 11 2020 23:44 utc | 124
Time for a gambit from the “movement”. The DNC has played a great pawn game. pushing one then another culminating in a grand Bait and Switch Gambit sacrificing them all to push a creaky knight who can bring in the desired stalemate, a brokered convention; the game plan all along. The Bernie movement has had only one true and loyal ally on the board the whole time, and that’s Tulsi Gabbard. All the punditry is gaga over the daring play of the DNC; how about some daring play from the movement? There’s no chance that Bern might prevent the brokered convention. There’s no chance that he might gain the nomination. But Tulsi starting fresh with Bernie’s endorsement, and delegates might sweep the board the rest of the way. If there is a movement then this is its chance!
Does anyone out there understand that this is possible? Just as possible as the resurrection of Biden; it’s just strategy! Might seem little daring but otherwise it’s all over. If anyone gets it please help…. it might not be too late.
Posted by: NOBTS | Mar 12 2020 3:21 utc | 125
Posted by: Likklemore | Mar 11 2020 23:10 utc | 123
“Silly party.”
Yes, the same who just this past December voted to give the president greater discretionary war powers, in the very midst or impeaching him. There’s no limit to how far they can stick their heads up their own asses.
@ Russ 126
That is some acrobatics !! You should’ve given a pre-alert: “Remove all liquids surrounding your keyboard”
Are you poised for Biden’s speech on coronavirus? No, I did not make this up.He is seeking to contrast with Trump
See, it’s at 1:00 PM EDT. Maybe it will be his younger double, sans dementia.
WILMINGTON, Del. (Reuters) – Democratic presidential front-runner Joe Biden will deliver a speech on the coronavirus pandemic on Thursday, 16 hours after the man he hopes to beat in November’s election, Republican President Donald Trump, addressed the nation from the White House.
The former vice president’s speech, slated for 1 p.m. EDT (1700 GMT) will give Biden, who has criticized Trump’s response to the coronavirus, a chance to portray himself as a steady, experienced hand in the face of a public health crisis.
“Today’s speech will be presidential, not political,” a Biden adviser said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the upcoming remarks. “It will be clear-eyed about the challenges we face and offer thoughtful ideas on the path forward. It will offer a view into how Biden will lead in times of crisis as president.”[.]
” It will be clear-eyed..”
We will leave it there. ROFLMAO.
Posted by: Likklemore | Mar 12 2020 15:27 utc | 127
Maybe Arabs and Persians just like the proximity of other people.
Posted by: Nemesiscalling | Mar 10 2020 23:10 utc | 46
Yes, it’s a thing in those societies. In live societies, people seeing people, face to face, conversing, unlike the dead western model of air conditioned houses with kid playing Call of Duty, getting ready for the real world guns/armor.
Posted by: Sakineh Bagoom | Mar 12 2020 15:41 utc | 128
It is quite something to see all the talking heads screaming and demanding that the Government throw a few gazillion at the markets.
EG:”Jim Cramer on Thursday called for the federal government to immediately print $500 billion to address the coronavirus outbreak, and suspend all taxation during the ”
These are the same pricks that scream and shout at the government to get out of their business when things are going great for them.
No shame.
Posted by: arby | Mar 12 2020 17:05 utc | 129
Good (if mixed) news: Chelsea Manning released, but still faces $256,000 fine.
Posted by: jalp | Mar 13 2020 0:16 utc | 130
At some point, a good proportion of Iraqi’s will have to unite to drive the US occupation forces out though they seem to occupied with internal divisions at the moment.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iraq-security-usa-iran-statement/u-s-air-strike-hits-four-iraqi-positions-iraqi-military-statement-idUSKBN21000I?il=0
“The United States flew air strikes against four locations of Iraqi paramilitary forces, police and army in Iraq, an Iraqi military statement said on Friday.”
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 13 2020 0:45 utc | 131
I hope it ll be quickly translated to English
https://www.amazon.com/Lesbos-honte-lEurope-Documents-French/dp/2021451992
Posted by: Mina | Mar 13 2020 10:16 utc | 132
@Robert Lindsay #132
Very good comment, thank you. It would be great if b re-posted it in a separate post to give it greater visibility.
Posted by: S | Mar 13 2020 12:21 utc | 133
Below is a link to a Xinhuanet article and take away quote from it
China report says human rights situation deteriorating in U.S.s
The take away quote
”
BEIJING, March 13 (Xinhua) — China on Friday issued a report on human rights violations in the United States.
Titled “The Record of Human Rights Violations in the United States in 2019,” the report said the facts detailed in the document show that “in recent years, especially since 2019, the human rights situation in the United States has been poor and deteriorating.”
The State Council Information Office released the report based on published data, media reports and research findings. It began by citing a quote from U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in a speech on April 15, 2019: “We lied, we cheated, we stole … It reminds you of the glory of the American experiment.”
“The remarks of U.S. politicians have completely exposed their hypocrisy of adopting double standards on human rights issues and using them to maintain hegemony,” read the report.
The United States released annual reports to “distort and belittle” human rights situation in countries and regions that did not conform to U.S. strategic interests, but turned a blind eye to the “persistent, systematic and large-scale” human rights violations in its own country, the report said.
Consisting of foreword and seven chapters, it detailed facts on human rights violations in the United States relevant to civil and political rights, social and economic rights, discrimination suffered by ethnic minorities, discrimination and violence against women, living conditions of vulnerable groups, and abuses suffered by migrants, as well as U.S. violations of human rights in other countries.
”
Posted by: psychohistorian | Mar 14 2020 6:03 utc | 134
Pat Lang at SST
“Download speeds from Musk’s orbiting circus are said to approach one gigabyte. Service will begin to be offered in Canada and the Northern US this year. The issue of price will be critical to success. Universal high speed internet access! Is this not a marvelous prospect for mankind? pl”
Is this not a marvelous prospect for mankind… would be if it were neutral, but US companies and individuals are not neutral.
Microsoft heavily involved in Ukraine coup, and google creating apps for colour revolutions…
Yep CIA and the regime change organisms would love universal high speed internet that was based and controlled in the US. Not so marvelous for mankind though.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 14 2020 23:58 utc | 135