Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
March 26, 2020

More Bits On The Corona Crisis

Donald Trump's MAGA is successful.

The U.S. is providing the world with another example of its great exceptionalism. In a few days it will have the greatest number of Covid-19 cases and the greatest number of casualties of the disease. It will also have spent the greatest amount of money on the crisis with the smallest part of it going to the people who need it.

It is not a nice picture and it makes me sad.

The more than two trillion dollar the lobbyists told Congress to put into their 800+ pages relief bill will mostly go to very rich people. It is  corporate socialism - a bail out for investors and managers.

Contrast that with the Russian president Vladimir Putin who, in an address to the Russian people, allocated most of the money for the unemployed, the retired and for families:

Then, with special flourish, Mr. Putin used the impending crisis to fix several unpopular tax loopholes favoring the very rich, so that the proceeds of the new taxes may be used to offset some of the costs of the social protection measures now being introduced for the great majority of the working population, for families, etc.

To name one such abuse, he is calling for all remittances of dividends and the like by physical persons to offshore ‘tax havens’ where they go untaxed, now to be subjected to a 15% income tax in Russia. The double taxation treaties with those tax haven countries allowing this abuse will be amended accordingly.

The U.S. as well as other countries is still not doing enough to slow down or even stop the outbreak.

The Wall Street Journal today reports (paywalled but quoted here) what we emphasized in our earlier pieces. The lockdown in Wuhan on January 23 was not enough to end the growth of the number of cases.

It was only after February 2, when Wuhan introduced the isolation of suspected cases and of people who had close contact with confirmed cases, that it gained a grip on the crisis:

What really turned the tide in Wuhan was a shift after Feb. 2 to a more aggressive and systematic quarantine regime whereby suspected or mild cases—and even healthy close contacts of confirmed cases—were sent to makeshift hospitals and temporary quarantine centers.

The tactics required turning hundreds of hotels, schools and other places into quarantine centers, as well as building two new hospitals and creating 14 temporary ones in public buildings. It also underscored the importance of coronavirus testing capacity, which local authorities say was expanded from 200 tests a day in late January to 7,000 daily by mid-February.

To send anyone who has mild symptoms home to be cared for by family only increases the speed of the epidemic as all family members are then likely to get catch the virus.

Tests and care for Covid-19 must be for free. We need hospitals to care for only the critical cases. We need quarantine centers to isolate the milder cases from the wider population. Many hotels, sport arenas and exhibition halls are currently empty. They can be converted into quarantine stations within a day or two. People will have to stay for only two weeks. They would be fed and would have medical attention. That is a small restriction of the freedom of a few for a large benefit for our societies.

We must also introduce the wearing of a mask in public as a new social norm:

A number of studies have reported that a significant portion of people are even spreading the virus while presymptomatic — in the day or two before they start to feel ill. Presymptomatic spreaders are, well, gonna spread. It’s not their fault.

How much this type of transmission is driving the pandemic is unclear but it could be significant. Gabriel Leung, dean of medicine at the University of Hong Kong, has estimated about 40% of cases transmit before symptoms develop. A recent preprint — a study that has not yet been peer-reviewed — from China pooled data from seven countries and estimated a very similar 43%.

The novel coronavirus is spread to a great extent by people who stay asymptomatic and by people who do not yet feel sick but will later show symptoms. When they talk, sneeze or cough they release small droplets that carry viruses. The droplets can stay in the air for some time. If a person coming along inhales those droplets the viruses will likely infect that person.

Those who have have the virus or might spread it should wear a mask because it prevents their droplets from flying out. Those who do not have the virus should wear a mask to prevent droplets from entering their body.

We were told that 'masks don't work' because they are not a 100% protection. The very tiny viruses can pass behind the mask at its sides or they can slip through its webbing. But the virus is not traveling alone but as part of a droplet. Even a relatively wide webbing may hold it up. If it is doubled with a sheet of cosmetic paper towel in between the protection will be even better. Microfilter bags for vacuum cleaners and so called HEPA filters are also effective materials that are readily available and easy to turn into masks.

The development of the epidemic will depend on how many people will start to regularly wear masks when they are not at home. Even if the protection masks prevent only 50% of new infections the speed with which the epidemic will unfold will be significantly lower.


Source: Financial Times - bigger

Consider that the societies in the blue circle are all ones where people regularly wear masks while the other countries (except China which was surprised by the outbreak) are societies were wearing a mask is seen as unusual. These 'blue' countries, which also gained experience during the SARS and MERS epidemics, show significant flatter trajectories.

Graphs similar to the above for all U.S. states and territories can be found here.

Meanwhile U.S. media continue to spread anti-China propaganda:

Two European Countries Report High Error Rate For Chinese Supplied Coronavirus Tests

Medical personnel in Spain and the Czech Republic have reported that the coronavirus rapid tests their respective countries have received from China are faulty and have a high error rate.

Several labs in Spanish hospitals have reported that the test kits they purchased, manufactured by Chinese company Bioeasy and based in Shenzhen, have a sensitivity of 30% when the sensitivity should be above 80%, Spanish newspaper El País reported Thursday. Due to the test’s lack of reliability, medical personnel in Spain have switched back to the PCR test, which takes up to four hours for a diagnosis, while rapid tests take between 10 to 15 minutes

The Spanish government purchased 340,000 tests from the Chinese company, a similar quantity to the tests ordered by the Czech Republic, where medical personnel also report an 80% failure rate.

When one checks the original reports from Spain and from the Czech Republic one learns that these countries bought anti-body tests which only react when a person has had the virus for some time and developed anti-bodies against it. These tests can obviously not be used to find persons who are infected but have not yet developed anti-bodies.

China's ambassador in Spain also pointed out that these tests have yet to be verified by the regulator and were imported without the help or knowledge of the Chinese government.

The anti-body tests are valuable to identify people who have developed current immunity against the virus. These people can then care for those who are most endangered by the disease. Anti-body tests are quick. They can be used anywhere. 

The polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests which are currently necessary to find if someone has the virus take at least four hours and  specialized laboratories to process them. We will need a much quicker reliable test if we want to put our economies back to work. Luckily several companies and academic groups are already working on these and a 45 minute test is now ready to be marketed.

When we have a quick test for the virus and a quick test for anti-bodies available in mass we can restart the economy by 'filtering' through the population on a large scale. Movement restrictions would then only be needed for those who show virus-positive and anti-body negative results. All others could go back to work.

There would certainly still be outbreaks from people who escaped the 'filtering' process but with easy testing and care in place those clusters can be locally contained.

It may take another two month or so to get to that point. Until then there is little we can do but to stay apart as much as possible and to wear our masks.

---
Previous Moon of Alabama posts on the issue:

Posted by b on March 26, 2020 at 18:20 UTC | Permalink

Comments
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Posted by: William Gruff | Mar 28 2020 13:56 utc | 353
"It may be difficult for people raised immersed in capitalist culture to
understand, but the Native Americans were right about property
ownership. It is a great tragedy that we trashed that concept rather
than adopting it, but concepts are difficult things to entirely destroy.
It remains as a target to aim for when trying to make our culture healthy."

Yuppp. So many in the West have been schooled into
believing that the rest of the world must be backward.
But there is still hope: after the collapse, some will
discover these discussions, and they will be helped.

Posted by: kiwiklown | Mar 29 2020 9:08 utc | 401

I have been researching low cost respirators following a suggestion on the thread discussing deranges USA. It is more appropriate here on the Coronavirus thread. Current respirators in western hospitals are EXTREMELY expensive and there are old technology devices that function fine at a fraction of the cost. Their patents my well have expired etc but they are so simple that a bit of nifty engineering could skate around that issue.

I discovered a simple tech device and many early types that were in immediate use many decades ago. I even downloaded the service manuals to get a peek at the details and the operator guides.

One the Bird Mk7 sold on ebay 2 weeks ago for $250.

a snippet from the asthma site:

1958: Bird Mark 7 Universal Respirator:
Dr. Bird continued working on positive pressure technology, and in 1955 came up with a prototype of the Bird Mark 7.

Dr. Bird showcased it at various teaching hospitals, allowing it to be used in the most critically ill patients who were suffering from respiratory failure where other accepted therapies had failed to work. The Bird Mark 7 Respirator was quickly accepted by the medical community, and in 1958 it was introduced to the market.

This respirator was ideal for inhalation therapists, as it was portable, durable, and easy to operate. It was connected to a 50 PSI source and was operated by a flow of air. It could be used to provide controlled positive pressure breaths long term by connecting it to an endotracheal or tracheotomy tube. It was one of the first respirators to provide continuous controlled mechanical breaths for patients who were unable to spontaneously breathe.

MIT has some early research and produced simple low tech devices here and here.

I suspect China and Cuba and others have been producing these for a long time in some form or another.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Mar 29 2020 9:10 utc | 402

Ventilator shortages.

This is a follow up on my post uncle tungsten | Mar 29 2020 4:26 utc | 142 at today thread “in a time of crisis etc.., I was replying to Yeah, Right earlier. It is more suited to this tread.


The need for ventilators is urgent and western hospitals have highly sophisticated and expensive devices in short supply. Ramping up that manufacturing will be extremely prohibitive and delayed.

I discovered a simple tech device and many early types that were in immediate use many decades ago. I even downloaded the service manuals to get a peek at the details and the operator guides.

One the Bird Mk7 which is referred to in the asthma site below sold on ebay 2 weeks ago for $250.

Many are discussed here at the asthma site:

MIT has some early research and produced simple low tech devices here and here.

I assume China and Cuba and others have been producing these for a long time in some form or another.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Mar 29 2020 9:32 utc | 403

About Raoult, I don't care about the person. In the one interview I watched and that was posted here, he explained that a serious confinement means to quarantine the ppl tested positive. This could have been done easily by requisitioning some hotels etc. but since the richest countries in the world have no protective gears for their medical staff or nursing home staff to start with, that has not been done, so to attack him on the base "he said it is just a flu" is ridiculous unless we consider that the measures applied in France, UK or US are not what scientists have been recommending at all. The way western govs are managing the crisis is to have medical staff get infected because badly protected and sent back home in their families after double working shifts. The richer among them do self-isolate in their own appartment, but since these are not at least in the EU the wealthiest professions, those who live with their partner or families in a 1- or 2-room appartment are actually infecting more people who in turn go to the supermarket etc. The same goes for workers in the same supermarkets etc. There is a decision of getting rid of the weaker to alleviate some costs on the economy, period.

Posted by: Mina | Mar 29 2020 9:54 utc | 404

Some wisdom from a doctor on the Front Line in New York.

link

Posted by: Tom_LX | Mar 29 2020 10:17 utc | 405

China takes the mask off:
520,000 per day

Older low tech respirators might save thousands.

MIT has some early research and produced simple low tech respirator devices here and here.

Even older and quite effective respirators can be searched at the asthmahistory dot blogspot dot com. (Cant link it as grief bites my fingers each time... IT glitches Bah!!)

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Mar 29 2020 10:24 utc | 406

China takes the mask prize
520,000 per day

MIT has some early research in 2010 and produced simple low tech respirator devices here

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Mar 29 2020 10:30 utc | 407

oops apologies for multiples ... there has been some gruesome delay and I retried,. Drinks on me next round.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Mar 29 2020 10:32 utc | 408

The New England Journal of Medicine has an article on the first 425 cases of Covid-19 in Wuhan:

Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus-Infected Pneumonia.   https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001316

These cases were defined as Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)-infected pneumonia (NCIP)

The Chinese CDC identified the virus, shared this knowledge with the public and developed a test for it in fairly short order and quickly went into an emergency response level.

They suggested an R naught (how many people an infected patient typically infects) as 2.2.  They had a mortality rate in these patients of 2%.

Super-spreaders as seen in SARS can spread the virus to tens or hundreds of other patients.  The authors make this comment:

"Although infections in health care workers have been detected, the proportion has not been as high as during the SARS and MERS outbreaks. One of the features of SARS and MERS outbreaks is heterogeneity in transmissibility, and in particular the occurrence of super-spreading events, particularly in hospitals. Super-spreading events have not yet been identified for NCIP, but they could become a feature as the epidemic progresses."
-----------

Anthony Fauci and Robert Redfield have an editorial related to this article in the same issue:

Covid-19 -- Navigating the Uncharted
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

Posted by: financial matters | Mar 29 2020 11:44 utc | 409

South Korean doctor on COVID-19

Posted by: TJ | Mar 29 2020 12:03 utc | 410

Casting pearls before (British) swine department.

SBS.com.au broadcast a March, 2018, BBC 4 doco called "Contagion" this evening.
The program guide says: "Dr Hannah Fry tracks the outbreak of a deadly virus after making herself Patient Zero."

The hypothetical scenario is loosely based on the early 20th Century Spanish Flu pandemic and forecasts circa 40 million infections and 890,000 deaths in the UK. BBC had a tracking app called Pandemic written to provide data from the 10k app subscribers to add realism to the projections and progress of BBC's cluster.

It's sort of funny that it was apparently so effing scary that the UK's PTB Toffs decided to dismiss it as nothing more than a Grimm Fairytale.

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Mar 29 2020 12:05 utc | 411

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Mar 29 2020 12:05 utc | 413

However what is even more funny (depending where you are standing) that in that show the outbreak happened in the town of Haslemere. That is the same town where UK's first "Pandemic Flu" victim was hospitalized :-)

BBC reports Truth and nothing but the Truth

Some observant bloggers found that one and not me.

Posted by: Tom_LX | Mar 29 2020 12:34 utc | 412

SK doctor is very interesting
at 8' he says that you don't get immune after you caught it
so what? lockdown til the end of times? when everybody will be registered at a local bank to get his food stamps?

Posted by: Mina | Mar 29 2020 12:37 utc | 413

james @391: "please clarify for me what is wrong with my [advocating depopulation elsewhere than my island] in your eyes.. thanks.."

I have, and in detail.

Now your turn. Point out specifically what you interpreted in my posts as "hostility" and some sort of personal attack.

Thanks in advance for making the effort to clarify the source of your sense of offence.

Posted by: William Gruff | Mar 29 2020 13:00 utc | 414

@415 Mina

The virus can only replicate in humans, and it can only survive max 9 days outside of humans on a surface. Once those that have caught it and either died or recovered in a quarantined country it's only 9 days later that the virus will no longer be in that country. Then it's just a question of quarantining anyone who enters the country to avoid reinfection.

Posted by: TJ | Mar 29 2020 13:26 utc | 415

Mina @415: "lockdown til the end of times? when everybody will be registered at a local bank to get his food stamps?"

That's not economically (physically) possible. If indeed no immunity develops then we go from having an unusually bad time to a true nightmare. This isn't inconceivable as there are many viruses that people cannot develop immunity to. The common cold (rhinovirus) is a good example.

Eventually, though, those most susceptible to the novel coronavirus will die off. If there is a genetic component to resistance to infection then humans will evolve over several generations so that the survivors will only have mild symptoms, much like the common cold. There is one difference, which is that the virus could end up capping human lifespans, even among those who in youth only get mild symptoms. As well, the virus will become endemic in society and will opportunistically kill off those who are resistant if anything should happen to temporarily compromise their immune systems.

Some posters might find that to their liking, though, as human populations will definitely see a significant decline, particularly among the impoverished, those with chronic health issues, and the elderly. It is one way to get carbon emissions down, I suppose, though not one I would prefer. As well, lots of choice real estate might get freed up as useless eaters die off who cannot afford the cost of spending a month on a ventilator every other year. Eugenics is a tiny protein package!

As I suggested, I would prefer to see other solutions to the world's problems, but the scenario you raise could possibly lead to a world populated (more sparsely!) by rosy-cheeked youths in impeccable health. It's a Nazi dream come true.

Naturally, I do hope that SK doctor is wrong.

Posted by: William Gruff | Mar 29 2020 13:26 utc | 416

TJ @417: "The virus can only replicate in humans..."

That's weird considering that we are supposed to believe the virus jumped straight from bats to full-on contagious among humans with at best a single generation of the virus available for it to complete the necessary mutations. I guess during this highly improbably super-mutation the virus also lost its ability to be infectious among other animals? Hey, it's possible! Grabbing your own bootstraps and lifting to fly about is also possible as quantum uncertainty allows for it, just at a relatively low probability. A low probability not too far from the probability of the mutation this virus was supposed to have naturally undergone.

Posted by: William Gruff | Mar 29 2020 13:37 utc | 417

@419 William Gruff

The virus is believed ( not proven ) to have been through another species, believed to be either Pangolin or a variety of snake before making it to humans. Now whether that is true or not, it did originate from a bat in China, given that over 1,100 species of bats have been identified, the chances that after mutating in humans it could go back into a different species of bat as a new reservoir host seem if not zero to be vanishingly small.

Posted by: TJ | Mar 29 2020 14:00 utc | 418

Mask cleaning guidelines based on actual studies and experiments:
source

Old studies have been dug up about ways to reuse the single-use N95 mask. It turns out it can be soaked in bleach, baked in ovens (at from 80 to 120 degrees for a half hour), microwaved on high for 2 minutes, gas-sterilized with hydrogen peroxide, or irradiated under an ultraviolet bench lamp for 45 minutes. Microwaving seemed problematic, since most N95 masks have small metal staples and a metal nosepiece — but in these studies they microwaved them anyway. They reported no damage to the microwave, and only a very few N95 models that melted or burnt. The majority were microwaved up to 3 times in a row with no loss of lab-tested filtration integrity.

Links to studies in original article.
Apparently you *can* microwave masks to successfully sterilize.

Posted by: c1ue | Mar 29 2020 14:28 utc | 419

@ted01 #385
I frankly don't give a crap about generic pronouncements - I look for concrete evidence of efficacy.
The first Raoult study was touted as providing clear evidence of chloroquinine efficacy in fighting nCOV - it does no such thing.
I have said before the hydroxychloroquinine/chloroquinine phosphate show theoretical promise in fighting nCOV, but theory does not automatically translate into reality.
Real world studies including dosage rates and testing results would go a long way towards proving out the theory, but the first Raoult study actually does the opposite since it looks more like cherry picking and grandstanding than peer reviewed science or medicine.
I still hold out hope that various chloroquinine treatments may help, but it doesn't mean I'm going to blindly accept nonsense just because of this desire.

Posted by: c1ue | Mar 29 2020 14:33 utc | 420

Mina@415

I think he's talking about reactivation rather than reinfection.  He talks about someone who seems to be getting better but then at 5-7 days starts to deteriorate again.  They may not have completely cleared the virus.

I don't think that the antibodies that people develop after they've recovered have been much studied but at 33' he talks about possibly using the plasma from recovered patients to try and treat new patients.

Posted by: financial matters | Mar 29 2020 14:41 utc | 421

@Peter AU1 #386
Read the CCD/DSU postings carefully: the CCD/DSU numbers are based on the present epidemiological breakdown of nCOV infected. Specifically: 200 nCOV confirmed infected = 100 symptomatic nCOV infected = 40 serious = 1-2 critical, of which 1/3 to 1/2 die. I've translated the 1-2 to 1.5 and 1/3 to 1/2 to 0.4 I'm applying this ratio to the 2 separate numbers: confirmed cases reported and deaths reported.

Confirmed cases - we know this number is low because asymptomatic are difficult to test and that no nation has done truly comprehensive testing. For example, the most common test is PCR - which China data shows is 29% false negative - particularly with asymptomatic. However, we know about 1/2 of people who get nCOV are asymptomatic because the Diamond Princess - every passenger was tested and 45% of nCOV infected were asymptomatic there.

Deaths: this number if firmer, but still not solid since there are classification differences (death with nCOV vs. death *because of* nCOV. Yes, it is very likely that death rates increase if adequate hospital care is not available, but it is also possible that doesn't matter because early studies have shown that most nCOV mortalities are already very, very sick people to start with.

In any case, the point is simply to derive a data set to compare results between different countries. If a country/region has a high consistency between "confirmed" waterfall data and "deaths" waterfall data, then that's great. Coupled with amount of testing, it can give a high confidence level on the consistency of the data.
On the other hand, if there is a huge disparity between CCD and DSU, then it is likely one or the other is wrong (or maybe both).

As you can clearly see from the pics, South Korea and New York have very consistent CCD vs. DSU. South Korea also has run enormous numbers of tests: 20 per even the "actual" (confirmed + worst case asymptomatic) cases. New York, while it has a similar CCD/DSU ratio, has only run 1.5 tests per "actual", meaning the confidence in its numbers might just be coincidence.

Germany, on the other hand, actually has the lowest CCD/DSU ratio. They are a huge outlier vs all other countries in that their death rate is extremely low vs. confirmed cases.

And then there's Italy and Spain. DSU/CCD numbers are really high - meaning there are huge numbers of more deaths than should be according to life cycle. Yes, Italy's and Spain's hospitals are slammed, but are they really so bad that mortality rates are 4x and 3x times greater? Note their testing per CCD is only somewhat lower than the US overall and is higher than New York.

Lastly, I added the CCD/DSU per 10 million to put all of the numbers in perspective.
Italy has run 429,526 tests as of Wiki reporting on 3/28 - but even their "confirmed" cases are 92472. If Asymptomatic is roughly double that, it means Italy has managed to "hit" an NCOV with nearly every 2nd test. If confirmed includes asymptomatic, then they're hitting an nCOV with every 4.5 tests. This is improbably high, unless Italy is *only* testing those symptomatic.

In any case, the discrepancies between "confirmed" and "deaths" reporting is why I'm putting these numbers up.

Posted by: c1ue | Mar 29 2020 14:55 utc | 422

Apparently even though the Olympics are called off Japan is not on a lock down. Schools closed but that is about it.

Corbett sowing disinfo

graph

Japan is in deep doodoo come May when this will explode.

Posted by: Tom_LX | Mar 29 2020 14:57 utc | 423

@William Gruff #419
Don't forget the pangolins.
The mutation may (or may not) be the ACE2 hook which is what makes the disease both dangerous and easily transmitted.

Posted by: c1ue | Mar 29 2020 14:59 utc | 424

TJ @420

The study published in "Nature" that has been linked several times here at MoA and is cited as proof that the virus isn't a bioweapon asserts that there was no intermediary species, and no evidence of an intermediary has been found in any case.

My post above was just snarking at the bogus "proof" that is frequently trotted out, not at your post. I agree that the evidence for natural transmission of the virus between species other than humans is pretty slim.

Posted by: William Gruff | Mar 29 2020 15:01 utc | 425

@uncle tungsten #405
I'm no expert, but there are clearly multiple types of ventilators ranging from hand-held squeeze bottle to pure O2 dispensing.
The more formal medical types (as opposed to home, allergy, ambulance/emergency) include high reliability power systems, alerts and monitoring, temperature control for the air pumped, filtration, etc.
For that matter, CPAP systems used for treating sleep apnea is a "ventilator".
The low end electronic type are $5K to $10K; the formal hospital ICU type appear to be $25K machines.

Posted by: c1ue | Mar 29 2020 15:04 utc | 426

Just listen carefully to what the doctor says at 1:37 min. Note the masks the doctor has and the one that the drama queen the UK reporter has.

The shocking centre of the COVID-19 crisis

Posted by: Tom_LX | Mar 29 2020 15:05 utc | 427

Sorry for the anti-Raoult movement but the South Korean doctor also says (somewhere in the second half) that chloroquine has been shown to be effective, as well as other stuff he names and which have been mentioned here too. He probably refers to some empirical knowledge, but apparently that should not be allowed anymore in the brave new world...

Posted by: Mina | Mar 29 2020 15:05 utc | 428

Tom
neither is SK in full lockdown, nor Sweden.
watch the SK doc, strongly recommended.

Posted by: Mina | Mar 29 2020 15:07 utc | 429

It appears ACE2 hook is common to both the first SARS and this one - and is shared among many mammal species (but not rats and mice): source

Here’s the problem, although COVID-19 does not recognize the ACE2 receptor in mice or rats, the amino acid sequence suggests it could likely recognize ACE2 from pigs, ferrets, cats, orangutans, monkeys and humans with similar efficiency! The authors even suggest these species can be used as intermediate costs to study the COVID-19 mode of transmission.

There has already been reported cases of dogs and a cat catching nCOV.
Not clear if they can transmit it.
I guess we'll need masks for the cats after all... cat mask pic

Posted by: c1ue | Mar 29 2020 15:10 utc | 430

More thought provoking commentary from Rob Wallace
Yasha Levine source

Starting in the 1990s, as part of its economic transformation, China ramped up its food production systems to industrial scale. One side effect of this, as anthropologists Lyle Fearnley and Christos Lynteris have documented, was that smallholding farmers were undercut and pushed out of the livestock industry. Searching for a new way to earn a living, some of them turned to farming “wild” species that had previously been eaten for subsistence only. Wild food was formalised as a sector, and was increasingly branded as a luxury product. But the smallholders weren’t only pushed out economically. As industrial farming concerns took up more and more land, these small-scale farmers were pushed out geographically too – closer to uncultivable zones. Closer to the edge of the forest, that is, where bats and the viruses that infect them lurk. The density and frequency of contacts at that first interface increased, and hence, so did the risk of a spillover.

It’s true, in other words, that an expanding human population pushing into previously undisturbed ecosystems has contributed to the increasing number of zoonoses – human infections of animal origin – in recent decades. That has been documented for Ebola and HIV, for example. But behind that shift has been another, in the way food is produced. Modern models of agribusiness are contributing to the emergence of zoonoses.

Take flu, a disease that is considered to have high pandemic potential, having caused an estimated 15 pandemics in the past 500 years. “There is clearly a link between the emergence of highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses and intensified poultry production systems,” says spatial epidemiologist Marius Gilbert of the Université Libre de Bruxelles in Belgium.

…China is one of the world’s major exporters of poultry, but its poultry industry is not wholly Chinese-owned. After the recession of 2008, for example, New York-based investment bank Goldman Sachs diversified its holdings and moved into Chinese poultry farms. So if China has its share of responsibility for spillover events, it isn’t alone. That is why Wallace insists on talking about relational geographies rather than absolute geographies, when it comes to identifying the causes of disease. Or as he puts it: “Follow the money.”

As I've said before - China's increasing wealth means they eat more meat = more farmed animals.

Rob Wallace is pointing out that it isn't just the organic demand - China is farming chicken for export, and the industrialization of animal protein production has caused ripples including displacement of small farmers into wild areas, the development of "wild" animal farming for the luxury sector (Chinese equivalent of organic food/produce in the US), etc.

Posted by: c1ue | Mar 29 2020 15:17 utc | 431

A very interesting video of two people who were on the cruise ship that stopped in Japan. Some interesting comments about respirators.

link

Posted by: Tom_LX | Mar 29 2020 15:21 utc | 432

As for the theory that the virus has been in existence outside China long before the Wuhan outbreak, BINGO

Posted by: Jonathan W | Mar 29 2020 15:56 utc | 433

This is a re-post of some thoughts on the cv crisis since it was originally posted in the wrong thread. Apologies!

Let me suggest a note of optimism in the discussion. To those who are creaming their pants at the prospect of the demise of Capitalism and the impending social apocalypse, don't count on it. Granted the coronavirus crisis will have deep life-changing consequences for many, but eventually people will go back to work, much as they did before. I say this despite my belief in the Hobbesian view of the human condition. Not his commonly misunderstood belief that human beings are at their core evil selfish creatures, but his belief that the human species "are not hardwired to live together in large scale political societies. We’re not naturally political animals like bees or ants, who instinctively cooperate and work together for the common good. Instead, we’re naturally self-interested and look out for ourselves first and foremost. We care about our reputation, as well as our material wellbeing, and our desire for social standing drives us into conflict as much as competition over scarce resources." There ain't going to be a revolution after this crisis is over. Shock and dismay, sure, and a lot of anger also. People will expect and will demand a lot more from their governments. But change won't happen like in 1979 in the Soviet Union. Too many people nowadays with a lot more to lose. In the US there will be incremental progressive changes in the system as the old generation of Bidenists are replaced by a new generation of Sandenites like Occasio Alexandria-Cortez, even if the one percenters and TPTB have to be dragged kicking and screaming into new directions and social priorities. Life must go on.

Posted by: krypton | Mar 29 2020 16:09 utc | 434

@ 416 william gruff...

this is all bullshit and i am only pulling some of it from your post @ 352..

" Anyone who brings up overpopulation as a problem the world faces but fails to include themselves at the center of that problem is voicing a despicable ideology; a despicable ideology that the individual may be unaware of but is present all the same."

"When you point the accusatory finger at those consuming less as being a problem, then you are consuming too much. That shouldn't be so difficult a concept to grasp."

go back and read your post @ 352... notice all the times the phrase 'you' is used in reference to me when you in fact don't know me..

i never mentioned china once in my comment about over population... you did.. you think you know me, but you don't... but you'd like to put me in some cheap box and proceed to throw me around with you ideology... it can't work on me william.. use some other fictional enemy in your brain that you seem to need to hold up your ideology...

Posted by: james | Mar 29 2020 16:09 utc | 435

james @437

That's a common overreaction among overly sensitive people. I never said that you were despicable. I said that you are giving voice to a despicable ideology, possibly without being aware of it. This is simply a statement of fact and not a personal attack.

As for being in a cheap box, that is up to you. I have no interest in putting you anywhere. At the same time, I have no inhibitions against pointing out that you are in a cheap box if that is where you choose to be.

Posted by: William Gruff | Mar 29 2020 16:27 utc | 436

William Gruff @ 352 says:

That poster[me] is looking at the world filtered through capitalist ideology, so it is unfortunate that you are in agreement

yes, William, keep telling me more about me, eventually you might even get something right.

and how 'bout you, William, i mean, other than being a communist, albeit one with 'a couple decent sized properties,' what else filters your perception?

Posted by: john | Mar 29 2020 16:28 utc | 437

Posted by: Matt | Mar 29 2020 3:02 utc | 398

Well said, Sir... however.

In this fast spread scenario it will naturally pick off the sick, co-morbid, and immuno-compromised VERY quickly- **they** are like sitting ducks. But, again, we will NEVER be able to stop **their** eventual exposure... only delay it.

I wonder how different your take on this thing would be, if you had to write the above this way:

In this fast spread scenario it will naturally pick off the sick, co-morbid, and immuno-compromised VERY quickly- **we** are like sitting ducks. But, again, we will NEVER be able to stop **our** eventual exposure... only delay it.

It is easy to be smart ass when your ass is not on the line.
BTW, are you sure that when you get the corona, you will breeze thru it just with sniffles?


Posted by: hopehely | Mar 29 2020 17:02 utc | 438

john @439

What I pointed out about you is all I needed to know about you at the time. I hope it doesn't hurt your feelings too much if I say I don't care to know any more. It would be unfortunate if you were to feel attacked and victimized as well.

Posted by: William Gruff | Mar 29 2020 17:11 utc | 439

james @437

On a previous thread you accused me of being dishonest, cheap, never reading (that which I have definitely read), being fucking ignorant, writing bullshit, etc. You're posts were full of assumptions about me, when you don't know me.

To this, I said you were unobjective.

Now you are over-reacting to things that Gruff says as far as I can see he is saying exactly the sort of things he normally would say.

By your own measure, you really should apologise to me but I am not asking or expecting this.

Your discussion with Gruff went awry because of your advocacy of population reduction which is obviously important to you. But Gruff holds a counter view and it is important to him.

You are fundamentally upset by Gruff's opposition to your point of view but I don't see how you can have expected that you would not receive opposition? (And this is the wrong place to be posting if you are going to get upset).

FWIW I agree with Gruff that you are advocating a Malthusian/fascist ideology and you need to do a lot more research and give a lot more thought to the matter. But, if you are really committed to the idea of population reduction as an end in itself, of the population itself as the problem, then I have to tell you that you and I would be opposed in a very fundamental way.

Personally, I think you are going through a dialectical process. An idea that you hold dear (but do not really understand) is being opposed in a place where you were comfortable and by people from whom you expected approval and you are resisting and lashing out. You need to work through your idea and the counter idea and see what emerges.

The question you need to ask is "Why do some people not support my commonsense idea of population reduction". One possible outcome is reinforcement - that you will become more committed to the idea that the population needs to reduced and that the people who hold the counter view are endangering the planet and because they will not change their views (and they won't) they need to be stopped.

Or you may conclude that the root cause of the problem is not people but the capitalist system itself (which you explicitly rejected as a cause in an earlier post) - specifically, the waste, capital accumulation, resource exploitation, the environmental damage, exploitation of humans, etc, inherent in capitalism.

It will take you time to work through these ideas, please take it. Or just respond by telling me to "fuck off" - it's up to you!

Posted by: ADKC | Mar 29 2020 18:10 utc | 440

William Gruff @ 441 says:

What I pointed out about you is all I needed to know about you at the time

well, having such a penchant for the unverifiable, that's understandable.

Posted by: john | Mar 29 2020 18:33 utc | 441

@ adkc... i was wondering if you would get involved with my conversation with gruff, so i am not surprised to see you interjecting here.. maybe you can tell me what is wrong with me saying that i think over population on the planet is a problem? feel free to give your ideas.. thanks..

Posted by: james | Mar 29 2020 18:35 utc | 442

@ 438 william... please tell me what is despicable about raising the issue of overpopulation... as i said previously.. i don't get it or see it... your quote - "I said that you are giving voice to a despicable ideology"... i am interested.. thanks..

Posted by: james | Mar 29 2020 18:37 utc | 443

c1ue @ 422
"...I have said before the hydroxychloroquinine/chloroquinine phosphate show theoretical promise in fighting nCOV."

But you actually didn't - this is what you said
"...The data that does exist does not show promise for Hydroxychloroquine."
This was the point.
It's not about Didier Raoult as is clearly shown by the links placed by myself & others.
The WHO & others obviously think there is some credible data out there or they wouldn't be going ahead with these research projects.

Posted by: ted01 | Mar 29 2020 18:50 utc | 444

Mina @430

There was a doctor interviewed on some US TV channel indicating that the medical staff at his New York hospital were all taking Plaquenil (low toxic version of chloroquine) & apparently staying healthy.

Of course it could be a placebo effect, who knows.

I haven't got time to find the link, maybe later.

Posted by: ted01 | Mar 29 2020 18:59 utc | 445

@ted01

Yeah, and critics would like us to ignore the fact that Chloroquine threatens to reduce Big Pharma's pandemic profits by billions of dollars.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Mar 29 2020 19:14 utc | 446

james @445

As I said, try reading Mein Kampf. The author was also concerned about overpopulation, though he didn't flinch from the implications and instead addressed them directly and honestly.

The very concept of "overpopulation" is that there are too many people in the world; that is, there are people in the world who should not be here. Solutions to problems are always conceived around efforts to bring "what is" into alignment with "what should be". In your view "too many people" is the "what is", and is actually a very simple problem. and the solution, "what should be", is obvious: Less people. We have X people in the world and we want there to only be X-Y people; therefore we have Y people who are excessive; redundant; surplus. Now we just have the question of what to do with that surplus Y quantity of people, and that is nothing more than an engineering problem.

To be sure it is also a political, law enforcement, and possibly military problem as that Y quantity of people are unlikely to be enthusiastic about your final solution, but those are all problems that have been solved before and so there is really nothing new there.

I am confident you will protest "That's not what I mean!", but what else can you mean? There is no point to trying to claim that it is a problem we need to discuss to figure out solutions to because the only realistic solution is obvious and simple. Any discussion can only ever be an effort to rationalize that solution. If that only solution you can finally arrive at; that final solution, is something you claim would be unacceptable to you, then all you are doing is dwelling upon problems for which there can be no solution. That would be annoyingly childish.

Posted by: William Gruff | Mar 29 2020 20:11 utc | 447

@ william gruff... that was another example of what i found interesting in your post @352 - characterizing me in the same context as hitler.. it didn't go un noticed and i resented it then and now... i never said anyone shouldn't be here, but i suppose you missed that? in fact, i said very little and your inclination was to extrapolate a very lot... in fact we haven't even talked about my ideas... what i get is 'this is how you see it james' more then anything... and i do resent it.. there has been no conversation with me - just a condemnation of me for voicing an idea - i think the world is over populated and i think it would be better if there were less people on it... it is difficult to converse in this context... it appears to me as not a conversation so much as a judgement and a talking down to someone who doesn't see things correctly -0 or in the correct ideological framework according to you... that is how it appears to me... i'd like to be wrong, but nothing you have shared changes my initial comment to you on this.. as i said previously - it seems futile and that it would be better to end the conversation... please do have the last word... this will be the last comment from me.. cheers james

Posted by: james | Mar 29 2020 21:16 utc | 448

Wm Gruff @449: "That's not what I mean!", but what else can you mean?

I've been reading james' comments for years.

I've never had the impression that he wants to see a racist depopulation as implied by your post.

What I have seen from james is a desire for compassion, fairness, and justice. And a searching for truth that guides us to those worthy ends.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Mar 29 2020 21:50 utc | 449

To put this into some perspective, the Malthusian theory of overpopulation has been with us since the 1790s. It was then that the 'discovery' that poverty was attributable not to capitalism but to overpopulation was made. The theory immediately came in for wide criticism but it was soon incorporated into the rapidly gelling ideology (Political Economy) of the capitalist class because it was a perfect excuse (with puritanical anti-sex features attracting evangelical support) for the systematic looting of the Commons and the working class throughout the expanding Empire.
At the time the population of the UK was about 9 million, that of the United States not double that and that of China 300 million.
Malthus's theory was wrong in all its aspects; it remains however central to neo-liberal, as it was to liberal, policy in all areas, particularly those of income distribution and social security because it attributes the problems of class society to the reproduction rates of ordinary people.
Many decent and well meaning critics of our society, particularly among the Greens, are fixated by the cheap science of Parson Malthus, often because they are afraid to be seen as being opposed to the capitalist system, by accepting the overpopulation theory, however, they are lining themselves up with the fascist politics which spring naturally from liberalism in decline, because the imperialism which bred it is doomed.

Posted by: bevin | Mar 29 2020 21:54 utc | 450

ted01

Plaquenil is simply a brand name for hydroxy chloroquine which is a derivative of chloroquine.
It most likely works in the same way as chloroquine in blocking the virus.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 29 2020 22:01 utc | 451

james @450

Your resentment is neither my responsibility nor concern.

"i never said anyone shouldn't be here"

You did, even if you cannot be honest with yourself. "Overpopulation" = "some people shouldn't be here". The two are one and the same thing. You and the author of Mein Kampf share that opinion, though that author was apparently more honest with himself about it. In at least that regard you are not like the author of Mein Kampf, but I don't think I would brag about that particular difference.

You voiced an idea that is despicable at its very core. It is every bit as despicable as voicing the idea that Black people be made property again. There is absolutely no possible take on the idea that you could come up with to salvage it. Your idea is vile and monstrous and 100% fascist.

Very important note: I did not just say that you are vile and monstrous and 100% fascist.

I am not attempting to use shocking prose by suggesting that you read Mein Kampf. You really will find a well reasoned defense of your idea in that book. It is useful to find out how reasonable horrible ideas can be made to appear, as well as how reasonable-sounding ideas can be utterly horrible.

I do realize that "victim culture" is all the rage these days, and that people can now find for themselves a modern substitute for honor in casting themselves as victims, but do note that I never attacked you. I pointed out that you were voicing a vile idea, and I attacked that idea. If you cannot distinguish between yourself as a person and a bad idea that you are espousing, then that is perhaps something that you would find benefit in putting effort into resolving.

I do believe that you are a very nice guy. If you lived in my current neighborhood I would happily share my best Irish uisce and Japanese sake with you over raging joyous arguments discussions. That said, no matter how nice a guy you are you will never be able to convince me that a hideous Nazi idea is one that can be salvaged with the right argument; that I just have not heard the right argument for it yet. I will listen to you, but then I will dismantle your argument, and if you insist upon holding that argument close to your heart then that dismantling will cause you pain. My advice is to try and put a little distance between your identity as a human being and ideas that you might happen to have at any given moment.

Posted by: William Gruff | Mar 29 2020 22:19 utc | 452

c1ue #422

I still hold out hope that various chloroquinine treatments may help, but it doesn't mean I'm going to blindly accept nonsense just because of this desire.

I strongly suggest that holding out hope be complimented by evidence from the almost four months of responding to the infection.

What do the on site practitioners tell us from China, Korea, Italy?? As I understand it they have tried almost everything in the pharmacy.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Mar 29 2020 22:33 utc | 453

By the way, this whole twist in the discussion has started me thinking that perhaps the covid pandemic might possibly be an attempt at a neo-Malthusian "cure". I still maintain that the attack on China was a massive screw-up and own-goal by psychotic and incompetent gangsters trying to secure the new century for the Empire, but perhaps I underestimate those gangsters. I have underestimated them before, at least with regards to their inhuman psychosis.

Posted by: William Gruff | Mar 29 2020 22:42 utc | 454

Posted by: ted01 | Mar 29 2020 5:35 utc | 401
" it is not about Didier Raoult"
It looks like you were drunken. Saturday Night? You were not even able to notice the reason for myself explaining to you what's wrong with Raoult.

Guess what?
Could you remember? Just before, at the end of your last comment #397, you explicitly requested such explanation.

You got what you requested. Since you were not able to answer anything to it, you now pretend it was not the matter. What an artist you are!


Posted by: Parisian Guy | Mar 29 2020 23:22 utc | 455

William Gruff #456

I still maintain that the attack on China was a massive screw-up and own-goal by psychotic and incompetent gangsters trying to secure the new century for the Empire, but perhaps I underestimate those gangsters.

Well put William Gruff I also entertain the thought that it was on the loose already in the USA. That is indicated by the intensive scrutiny last June and July 2019 and extraordinary shut down of the CBW lab at Fort Detrick in August. In the USA a federal bureaucrat ordering a military closure is EXCEPTIONAL. Beyond belief and there will be an interesting backstory there.

So IF it was out and running in Maryland, a standard human (let alone military) cover-up would surely follow. Given the heated and ignorant 'hate China' syndrome pumped by Trump and his Orcs and the Military Games in Wuhan then why not transfer the virus under cover of that event. Military personnel and their attendant cheer squads and support teams could be the vector. Its what these psychopaths do time and again. (There is a video doing the rounds of a caucasian man standing in a Chinese bus pulling down his face mask, licking his fingers and wiping them on the hand bar then replacing his mask. It could be a total fake but.... possible).

These psychopaths did Abu Grhaib they still persecute Julian Assange and Chelsea Manning for daring to expose their war crimes. They will stop at nothing.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Mar 29 2020 23:26 utc | 456

uncle tungsten @458: "Military personnel and their attendant cheer squads and support teams could be the vector."

That's something I've been suspecting as well. Grunts are disposable. Any civilian military authority will tell you that. The "beauty" of them potentially dying from an operation like this is that there are no body bags on TV. They just quietly disappear before anyone realizes that the contagion is in the US.

Posted by: William Gruff | Mar 29 2020 23:36 utc | 457

@ted01 #446
As a new person n this forum - you might consider reading some of the past threads.
I talked about the mechanism by which the chloroquine variants could potentially be useful against nCOV in multiple threads starting March 20.
As for the study in question: your apparent inability or lack of desire to actually read what the study documented is to your own discredit.

Posted by: c1ue | Mar 29 2020 23:36 utc | 458

Parisian Guy, ted01

France sanctions use of chloroquine for certain patients with coronavirus

=
Informative Summary:

Summary of Chloroquine Therapy and Covid-19.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Mar 29 2020 23:38 utc | 459

@uncle tungsten #455
You said

I strongly suggest that holding out hope be complimented by evidence from the almost four months of responding to the infection.

What do the on site practitioners tell us from China, Korea, Italy?? As I understand it they have tried almost everything in the pharmacy.

That's the point - this Raoult study was supposed to be quantitative and qualitative evidence, and it is anything but.

I am keeping an eye out for other actual evidence as opposed to press releases. After all, there have already been arrests for individuals flat out lying about nCOV cures, but so far I have yet to see anything definitive.

And this is important: the chloroquinines have significant side effects. The dosages described in the Raoult study are far higher than the rheumatoid arthritis prescriptions - 2x to 3x higher, and the study even notes that one participant had to withdraw due to too much illness from medication.

Understanding what level of chloroquinine in the blood matters. Understanding the stage which the chloroquinine should be taken matters.

Just pushing the name of a potential therapy around is what caused the death of the person who put a "teaspoonful" of fish chloroquinine into tea...

Posted by: c1ue | Mar 29 2020 23:42 utc | 460

james @444

I remember at school (50+ years ago) teachers pushed Malthusian ideas. Right from the very start I felt and knew it was wrong but also that the programmed teachers were programming their charges in what to think. Quite a few of my peers just accepted and agreed with what was being suggested to them. So the first thing I would say is that my teachers were entirely wrong in their concerns; the planet continued to support a population that grew from 3 billion to 8 billion. I have since discovered that Malthusian ideas and predictions have a long history of being wrong. Please ensure that you read bevin's post @452.

The second thing is that most of the world's population do not consume excess resources; that is entirely down to the Capitalist countries, in particular, the US. Despite Capitalist western populations stabilising, their consumption of resources still increases.

The third thing is that as wealth and security improve family size/population growth reduces and stabilises. Poverty and inequality cause population growth.

If you wish to see population growth slow or stabilise then allocate wealth and resources fairly. But, the planet is capable of supporting a much bigger population with less environmental damage and resource depletion; it just depends on the productive system and the fair distribution of wealth and resources.

If you wish to see the use of resources made more sustainable then it is the western Capitalist system that needs to change. In particular, designing a system of production that is based on human need rather than private profit.

It is capitalist think tanks and foundations that are pushing population reduction and that should make you think "Why are the very organisations responsible for environmental damage seeking to blame population?". If you seek out and watch James Corbett's How Big Oil Conquered The World and Why Big Oil Conquered The World then you should have more than enough background to begin questioning the assumptions you are making about over-population.

Posted by: ADKC | Mar 30 2020 0:26 utc | 461

William Griff@456

I assumed that the discussion about over-population was in the context of the Coronavirus pandemic and that both you and james were aware of the implication!

[On another thread it occurred to me that there would need to be a Pandemic Celebrity Sacrifice. You cannot have all these celebrities testing positive (where did they get the test kits? Why are they so healthy looking? Why are they still alive?) and self-isolating (Why are their houses and gardens so massive and luxurious?) and have them all survive when significant numbers of ordinary people are dying. It occurred to me that Bob Dylan was the obvious choice and that he may have volunteered (or been volunteered) for the role. Maybe by posting this, I am saving Bob Dylan and they will have go with Paul McCartney instead.]

With regards to the possibility that Covid-19 is a bio-weapon (and I know I am repeating myself here); that was the conclusion that Larry Romanoff came to in his latest article. Romanoff suggests multiple strains that interact in different ways - he believes that this is the only way to explain why Covid-19 acts differently in different countries. I noticed that both WSJ and USA Today have both published articles attempting to debunk Romanoff previous claims that the virus originated from outside China - it is interesting that his articles have attracted that level of attention.

Posted by: ADKC | Mar 30 2020 1:18 utc | 462

ADKC @463:

most of the world's population do not consume excess resources; ... as wealth and security improve family size/population growth reduces and stabilises.

This is true. Yet China's one-child policy is considered a success by most who are not predisposed to be anti-China. This, despite the forced reduction in population growth and higher abortion rates (which a large number of Christians consider a moral outrage if not murder).

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Mar 30 2020 1:35 utc | 463

@ 451 jackrabbit.. thanks.. a bit of gentleness here is appreciated!

@ bevin and william.... regarding the history on the concept of population control, i plead ignorance on the history.. i am not an ideological theory nerd or ideology historian.. maybe neither of you two are either, but clearly the history on it isn't pretty as you both note... but, that is not where i was or am coming from... and i was unfamiliar with the background as described by you both....

my thinking is really simple - and @adkc - thanks for your posts @ 463 and 264 too! where i am coming from is the using up of the natural world - resources, or the pollution of the natural world and resources.. i see this where i live, so it is not about anything other then my own first hand experience... i am not casting blame anywhere and i don't think anyone has to worry about my position on this being adopted.. it will probably happen naturally anyway where the adjustments are made or forced on us by nature.. we live in a consumer society.. maybe some of the other cultures i am less familiar with aren't consumer societies.. i know the one i live in is and i see a direct connection between numbers of people and amount of over-consumption, whether it be trees, or fish, or ever greater numbers of walmarts, tim hortons and gas stations strewn across the landscape.. i am not down with any of this suburban sameness brought to us by corporations that are quite happy with more and more people consuming more and more of same...

@ 464 adkc.. apparently john prine is not doing well.. he is a very big music figure - not as well known as dylan, but on a similar level of artist merit.. maybe you will disagree and do your ISIS routine on him too, lol...

cheers gang!..

Posted by: james | Mar 30 2020 2:59 utc | 464

@ 463 adkc... i wanted to thank you for that more then i did.. i am actually familiar with most all of that except the last paragraph you mention.. thanks adkc..

Posted by: james | Mar 30 2020 3:03 utc | 465

james @467

I interpret your post that you are quite firmly committed to your position and will not be re-evaluating it? That's a pity.

I hope that you will take the time to watch How Big Oil Conquered the World and Why Big Oil Conquered The World

--oOo--

I am familiar with Vancouver Island, where you implied you live. Both sides of my family (Eire) were small farmers that worked the land (very basic, no plumbing, you got your drinking water from a well which was really a pond where water seeped onto the surface, you used a bucket to clear the insect larva from the water surface before you dipped your bucket, it was quite a walk from farmhouse to well, the horror of the whole family spending an afternoon castrating a pig I'll save for another time). Forgive me but living in Vancouver Island is not living close to the land.

Also, you should be aware that Vancouver Island is intimately connected to crime; it is has a deserved reputation as the drug gateway for the whole of Canada and it is the elites that are running and profiting from the whole sordid business. It is obvious that ordinary people get involved in transporting drugs into Vancouver Island (via its small isolated harbours) and they do this to support their desired lifestyles; everyone turns a blind-eye. It is also obvious that the Mounties drag their feet on investigations.

I was in Vancouver in early to mid-2018 when Dan Archibald and Ryan Daley bodies where discovered. They went missing on the same day as Ben Kilmer went missing. Ben's body was found some months later. It was obvious that Ben was also murdered but the police refused to link them. The families and acquaintances where curiously compliant with the Mounties' do-nothing approach. I could not believe the lack of progress on the murders and the high-handed approach of the Mounties and the families just being so deferential and grateful for the Mounties doing effectively nothing (anything's acceptable when it means keeping your taxes low!).

It was Breaking The Code that linked these ordinary family men to Chad Wilson, the Leader of the Local Hells Angels chapter, who was also killed shortly after the deaths on Dan, Ryan and Ben. "Breaking The Code" alleged that the Hells Angels were required to kill all four.

It took a full year before the mainstream Canada press began to vindicate the "Breaking The Code" story. Please notice, the involvement of ordinary local people in international crime, the effective complicity of the victims family and acquaintances, and the delay and do-nothing approach of the Mounties.

It may appear that Vancouver Island provides a lifestyle that has nothing to do with the horrors of the modern western capitalist/crime system, but, unfortunately, it is intimately related to it and subsidised by it.

Posted by: ADKC | Mar 30 2020 10:26 utc | 466

Parisian Guy @457

It looks like you were drunken. Saturday Night? - no, its the best way to communicate with the willfully ignorant.
Of course we could always try Belgium, your prefeered language.

It's called a rhetorical question - look it up.

c1ue @460
"...The data that does exist does not show promise for Hydroxychloroquine." - This is what you said. You made the call.

I responded that The WHO & some universities & research institutes disagreed with you.

Nothing else, that's it. No Didier Raoult

Another person with an unhealthy obsession with Didier Raoult? (rhetorical question alert).

You don't like chloroquine - good for you, don't take it.

All I am doing is providing links to online newspapers, magazines, websites etc to articles related to research into Chloroquine as a cure for coronavirus for those interested.
If you are not interested just move on.

Posted by: ted01 | Mar 30 2020 11:02 utc | 467

The monkey-wrench in these plans is this: other countries will continue travel bans against countries that haven't completely defeated the virus. That might lead UK and US citizens to question how their government's have handled the outbreak.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Mar 27 2020 1:51 utc | 112

Yes ideally the world will forever quarantine these two evils. But once they gain herd immunity after sacrificing a few millions, they will force their vassals to open up and infect them again. Then spread gradually to the world esp China through these vassals.

Once the world is in crisis again, we will not see a US & its evil mother UK coming to aid the world like China. They will invade oil nations, China, Russia...with all asymmetrical warfare.

Posted by: TTdr | Mar 30 2020 12:30 utc | 468

An all-out hot war might change the dynamics, but it might not. Then what? Will the US learn to do win-win, or be destroyed trying to dominate the world?

Posted by: kiwiklown | Mar 27 2020 10:56 utc |

After ZUSNato failed its whole series of asymmetrical warfare, including the bioterrorism that backfired, now its left with one last choice, a nuclear war to destroy China rise.

The idiot that will be very happy to volunteer as canon fodder is none but Modi India. It has been stepping up activities to provoke Pakistan and China since virus attack.

USM has activated its unusual nuclear war drill with leaders hiding in its four deeply concealed underground nuclear bomb shelter command centers.
https://www.rt.com/usa/484389-military-underground-bunkers-coronavirus/

China issued a tacit warningfor US-India evil axis with a rocket force exercise news immediately.
http://en.people.cn/mobile/new/content.html?cI=1002&nI=9674134&aT=m


Posted by: TTdr | Mar 30 2020 12:42 utc | 469

Posted by: vk | Mar 27 2020 19:48 utc | 274
The Chinese article you mention has only tested for a little bit more than 100 patients.

Hydroxycloroquine is not a cure. The Chinese are using 22 different drugs to try to contain the COVID-19, a typical practice for desperate times. But desperate times imply there's no "miracle drug", so the French doctor acted like a false prophet on Youtube.
_____


There is not one serious scientific paper which demonstrates that chloroquine is effective against nCov in real life patients.


Randomized trial, with 3200 patients and several antiviral molecules (including chloroquine!) just started a few days ago in Europe.

Posted by: Parisian Guy | Mar 27 2020 17:28 utc | 240
________


If Chloroquine works as some paid Drs touted with sales pitch, China will see zero or 0.1% death since it started trial on B/Feb. Yet thousands continue to die with Drs too(who will quickly pop those magical pills themselves).

China gov has since prohibited all hospitals from treating COVID with chloroquine after some died due to its toxicity, except clinical trial. Its reported in China medical news.

China has done clinica trials on hundreds of selected drugs, including 2 HIV drug + chloroquine, US Gilead Remdesivir, Favipiravir,..even convalescent plasma, all were touted by various China specialists as magical cure. Many who endorsed these drugs were later exposed as related to the Pharma companies selling these drugs by themselves or family.

[Chinese researchers have narrowed down their focus to a few existing drugs, including Chloroquine Phosphate, Favipiravir and Remdesivir, after multiple rounds of screening, said Zhang Xinmin, director of the China National Center for Biotechnology Development under the Ministry of Science and Technology, at a press conference on the new virus.

According to him, the researchers scanned more than 70,000 drugs or compounds through computer simulations and in vitro enzyme activity tests, and selected 5,000 potentially effective drug candidates.

Then they were tested at the cellular level against the common coronavirus infection, and about 100 drugs were chosen for further experiments, which helped to select the final drugs for clinical trials, Zhang said.]

Several drugs against COVID-19 already in clinical trials: official(Xinhua)
Updated:2020-02-16
http://en.people.cn/mobile/new/content.html?cI=1002&nI=9658261&aT=m

A Chinese clinical preliminary report circulated in China wechat shown all have below 85% rate, i.e non effective since 85% patients will have light or no symptoms with self recovery without treatment. A lollipop given group recover just as good with 85% rate.

Its chief epidemiologist Dr Zhong Nanshan has been promoting his disastrous therapeutic treatment of heavy dosage (antibiotics + steroids) killing many since 2003 SARS and now,including the "whistleblower" Dr Li Wenliang.

He is also the most active advocate of chloroquine effectiveness in treatment of patients before severe illness. Yet under his hands patients are dying.

With West medication all not effective, staring at rapid outbreak of infection & deaths, China CCP has stepped in to order officially all hospitals use TCM. 4900 TCM physicians were flown into Wuhan alone to takeover all hospitals. Over 90% proven effective rate was achieved, with zero deteriotion, zero death, zero medical staff infected.

Wuhan & Hubei have the highest death rate partly due to its hospital Drs resisting order to adopt TCM. Only less than 30% was treated with TCM, while outside Hubei up to 90% were treated all with TCM achieving below 0.3% death rate. Once CCP cracked down hard with mayor changed, immediately the patients discharge rate shoot up to the sky.

[WUHAN, March 23 (Xinhua) -- Clinical observation showed that traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) has proven to be effective in the treatment of over 90 percent of all confirmed COVID-19 cases on the Chinese mainland, said a TCM official on Monday.

A total of 74,187 COVID-19 patients, or 91.5 percent of the total confirmed cases on the Chinese mainland, have received TCM treatment, said Yu Yanhong, Party chief of the National Administration of Traditional Chinese Medicine, at a press conference in Wuhan, capital of the hardest-hit province of Hubei.]

CM treatment effective on over 90 pct of COVID-19 patients on China's mainland: official
http://en.people.cn/n3/2020/0324/c90000-9671689.html

[A total of 74,187 pneumonia patients have been treated using traditional Chinese medicine, accounting for 91.5 percent of the total cases in China, according to Yu Yanhong from the National Administration of Traditional Chinese Medicine.

Meanwhile, clinical observation suggests that TCM proved effective in over 90 percent of cases.]

Traditional Chinese medicine plays major role in fighting epidemic
http://en.people.cn/n3/2020/0326/c90000-9672754.html

TCM goes around the world to help fight COVID-19
http://en.people.cn/n3/2020/0325/c90000-9672079.html

More reports on TCM role.
http://search.people.com.cn/language/english/getResult.jsp


China highlights scientific information sharing in containing COVID-19.
(Xinhua) 10:02, March 27, 2020
http://en.people.cn/n3/2020/0327/c90000-9673260.html
Spore Drs have openly declared that there are no effective proven drugs for COVID. Its not necessary to trial them when China already doing extensively, unless its last option where patient is dying with no choice. So why risk patient lifes unnecessarily.

Factbox: China's development of vaccines against novel coronavirus.
(Xinhua) 10:00, March 27, 2020
http://en.people.cn/n3/2020/0327/c90000-9673254.html
Vaccines started on Human trial, with the inventor as first to inject.


Posted by: TTdr | Mar 30 2020 15:25 utc | 470

A scientific study by China how to recycle disposable mask. Its been translated to English from Chinese.

Recently, Chen Jianfeng, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and executive editor of Engineering, led the team to face the problem of re-use of masks during emergencies. Only ordinary household hair dryers, electric fans, and electronic igniters can make "failure" masks "regenerate".

According to Wang Dan: "Overall, the principle of mask filtration is mainly the use of electrostatic adsorption and the blocking of ultrafine particles and droplets after fiber alignment. The charge layer in the middle of the mask acts on particles or droplets carrying viruses, bacteria, etc. Important protective effect. "

Take medical surgical masks (common 3-layer flat non-woven masks) as an example. The structure includes an outer non-woven fabric to prevent liquid splashing and large particles; a middle-layer electrostatic meltblown non-woven fabric, that is, a charged layer, is effective in utilizing electrostatic adsorption. Blocks small particles, especially particles or droplets that carry nano-scale viruses, to effectively block particles such as viruses; inner non-woven fabric is used to block exhaled water vapor.

Why do masks have to be discarded after a period of use? The main reason is the failure of the electrostatic filtering function of the middle layer of the mask.

https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=1&nv=1&rurl=translate.google.com&sl=auto&sp=nmt4&tl=en&u=http://www.xinhuanet.com/politics/2020-02/21/c_1125604682.htm&usg=ALkJrhhZzKU8-UEHMyt2qdIcTyzJF5iLxA">http://www.xinhuanet.com/politics/2020-02/21/c_1125604682.htm&usg=ALkJrhhZzKU8-UEHMyt2qdIcTyzJF5iLxA">https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=1&nv=1&rurl=translate.google.com&sl=auto&sp=nmt4&tl=en&u=http://www.xinhuanet.com/politics/2020-02/21/c_1125604682.htm&usg=ALkJrhhZzKU8-UEHMyt2qdIcTyzJF5iLxA

Posted by: TTdr | Mar 30 2020 15:49 utc | 471

@ 468 adkc... thanks for the additional comments... i have been reading the transcript of the first video you shared that you asked me to look at.. so far, nothing is being said that i am not familiar with.. i will get back to you on it when i finish.. https://www.corbettreport.com/episode-310-rise-of-the-oiligarchs/

regarding crime on vi... yes.. no place is immune to crime!! nanaimo has an interesting reputation.. i am familiar with much of the history.. thanks for your comments of a more personal nature... cheers james

Posted by: james | Mar 30 2020 16:30 utc | 472

entrance - whole album.. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-FzXGF3Oj3s&list=PL0A02C2A28179FDD0

haven't listened to it in many a year...

Posted by: james | Mar 30 2020 19:54 utc | 473

wrong thread.. sorry!

Posted by: james | Mar 30 2020 19:55 utc | 474

TTdr #472

Thank you for that post. I appreciate your effort to assemble and present that timely ripost.
Bravo for sane methodical science.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Mar 30 2020 21:25 utc | 475

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Mar 30 2020 21:25 utc | 477

Many quoted Pepe Escobar article as proof by taking out of context. It clearly said follow "Asia success in vigorous testing filter out infected one" for Prof Raoult recommended "treatment with chloroquine in very early stage as preventive measure",not a cure.

So chloroquine is not a proven cure as many falsely touted, tho it exhibits some preventive effect. Its known toxicity side effect is another topic.

That made some sense, which in line with China and Thailand limited small clinical test result. Fr is said to start 20k trial cases.

Only Thailand is using chloroquine with HIV drug liberally with unknown side effect. Oz reported one case, hospital was urged to imitate this by a dying patient's family and it work.

"Raoult was part of a clinical trial that in which hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin healed 90% of Covid-19 cases if they were tested very early. (Early, massive testing is at the heart of the successful South Korean strategy.)

Raoult is opposed to the total lockdown of sane individuals and possible carriers – which he considers “medieval,” in an anachronistic sense. He’s in favor of massive testing (which, besides South Korea, was successful in Singapore, Taiwan and Vietnam) and a fast treatment with hydroxychloroquine. "

Zhang Nanshan, who says that treatment with chloroquine phospate had a “positive impact,” with patients testing negative after around four days.

The key point has been stressed by Raoult: Use chloroquine in very special circumstances, for people tested very early, when the disease is not advanced yet, and only in these cases. He’s not advocating chloroquine for everyone. It’s exactly what the Chinese did, along with their use of Interferon. "

In general, 85% patients will has mild or no symptoms require no treatment(Italy don't report that as infection). 12% will be hospitalized & recover with care, 3% will be in ICU.

So Dr Raoult methodology is to prevent that 15% from happening at very begin stage of outbreak by wide testing like SK, not as a cure. Since this is what overwhelmed all hospitals and kill many patients,it might be a good preventive system.

If a dosage of $1 cheap chloroquine to every early stage tested positive ones can act as effective prevention, it warrant attention and not deride Dr Raoult. But huge resources will be required to test very rigorously with 97% risking toxicity complications, which may harm more than COVID did(0.01~3%)? So we will have to wait until France 20k clinical study completed to see its merit.

But Pharma giants won't be happy to see unprofitable chloroquine preventive system. A patented $100 vaccines like Tamiflu with $1k/day HIV drug is what they will ram through.

Btw Chloroquine play no role in China success to contain outbreak.

Posted by: TTdr | Mar 31 2020 3:06 utc | 476

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