Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
March 19, 2020

False Claims About The Novel Coronavirus And How To Debunk Them

Today China reported zero new domestic cases of novel coronavirus infections. It has beaten the epidemic just as we predicted early on. Other countries with still expanding epidemics will have to adopt all the measures China has taken to also win the fight.

Our extensive reporting about the novel cornonavirus has attracted many new commentators to this site. Unfortunately some of these, as well as some of the regulars, continue to spread disinformation and myths about the current pandemic and its causes.

To keep some level of quality at this site requires an aggressive countering of such comments. But our capacity to do so is limited. We do delete comments that are nonsensical or have been debunked and we do block people who insist on posting or reposting nonsense. But there are now many more comments per day than we can read. We therefore have to ask other commentators to counter the bad false ones.

Here are some of the false claims that are made about the pandemic and the facts needed to debunk them.


The novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 is a Chinese virus that comes from bats. It infected people because Chinese people eat bats.


The source of the virus is actually not known. The patient number 1, the person who first carried the virus, has not been found. The Wuhan wet market where exotic animals are sold was not the source of the outbreak:

The paper, written by a large group of Chinese researchers from several institutions, offers details about the first 41 hospitalized patients who had confirmed infections with what has been dubbed 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV). In the earliest case, the patient became ill on 1 December 2019 and had no reported link to the seafood market, the authors report. “No epidemiological link was found between the first patient and later cases,” they state. Their data also show that, in total, 13 of the 41 cases had no link to the marketplace. “That’s a big number, 13, with no link,” says Daniel Lucey, an infectious disease specialist at Georgetown University.

While the novel corona virus might be one that was originally carried by bats it is unlikely to have jumped from a bat to a human. The older SARS virus, which is somewhat similar to the novel coronavirus, originated from bats but first spread to other animals before mutating from there into a form that infects humans.

The only place where bats are regularly used as food is the Pacific island Palau which is more or less a U.S. colony. Videos showing Chinese citizens eating fruit bat soup were actually filmed on that island.


The virus is related to HIV, the virus that causes aids.


Some Indian researchers found four genome sequences in the novel coronavirus that can also be found in the HIV virus. They self published their findings in a paper that was not peer reviewed. We discussed that paper in detail on February 1 in our second post on the virus and we strongly expressed our doubt about its veracity. A few days later the paper was retracted by its authors after other scientists had pointed out that the lengths of each of the four sequences they had compared were way too small to be of statistical significance.


Asian people are genetically more receptive for the novel coronavirus.


The virus enters human cells by binding to the ACE-2 receptor on the cells hull. There were assertions that people in Asia have more ACE-2 receptors than people elsewhere. But detailed studies of various genome sequence databases have found no statistical basis for such claims. People of Asian, Caucasian or African heritage all have the same numbers of ACE-2 building elements and receptors. The virus will effect them equally.


The virus originated from a military weapon research laboratory.


There is zero evidence that the virus is from a Chinese or U.S. or other (weapon) laboratory and the claim actually makes no sense. The genome of the virus consists of more then 23,000 'letters'. It is significantly different than the genome of other known viruses. (Added:) It is not lab made:

We offer a perspective on the notable features of the SARS-CoV-2 genome and discuss scenarios by which they could have arisen. Our analyses clearly show that SARS-CoV-2 is not a laboratory construct or a purposefully manipulated virus.

To artificially create such a complex entity and to test all its variants would have been a program of the size of the Manhattan project and would have cost billions.

Weapon researchers are sane people with a limited budget. They look for methods to defeat an enemy. A virus that affects all humans indiscriminately but kills mostly very old ones would have no military value.


Moon of Alabama has downplayed the danger of the virus.


Our first post on the issue was headlined The Coronavirus - No Need To Panic. It discussed the infectiousness and fatality rate of the novel coronavirus disease in comparison to other virus caused diseases. We pointed out that it is less infectious and less deadly than for example SARS but never said that it is not dangerous at all. In fact the numbers we pointed out said the opposite.

The piece simple put the current epidemic into perspective. We have since posted a total of 15 detailed pieces on the pandemic. To claim that this is a downplaying of the issue is nonsensical.

Previous Moon of Alabama posts on the issue:

Posted by b on March 19, 2020 at 12:19 UTC | Permalink

« previous page | next page »


Great post, especially for pointing out the non-fatal health consequences of the COVID-19 disease initiated by the SARS-CoV-2 virus.

Relating your post to that of Hospitaldoc the hospitalized and dead have underlying conditions that make them susceptible to the disease consequences. This is confirmed by a study of the Italian deaths who point out that 99% of the dead have high blood pressure, diabetes or heart disease, or a combination of the three.

While those who are elderly have a highly elevated case fatality rate (CFR) younger people with one or more of these diseases(dis-ease)are less likely to die but also more likely to suffers a range of organ damages as a result of the infection than those young without one or more underlying conditions. I would expect the US death and organ disfunction rate would be higher than predicted due to the high rates of hypertension (high blood pressure), diabetes, and heart disease as well as the age pyramid skewed toward the elderly. The elderly also suffer, on average, with degraded mitochondria function (e.g. ATP production) due to higher levels of the CD38 NADases and lower levels of cellular components that suppress this protein within the mitochondrial organelle. Also interesting that the young, especially babies have high levels of melatonin which may explain their protection from SARS-CoV-2. Studies have shown that melatonin may serve as a therapeutic agent in virus induced disorders

The biochemistry behind the disease progression is extremely complex which is why this is hard to integrate into a system dynamics model. It is as if the specialists response are like the story of the blind men describing a elephant.

I would hope people would stay calm as this is not the end of the world but the end of the illusions. Stay safe in California.

Posted by: krollchem | Mar 20 2020 20:52 utc | 401

Garrett | Mar 19 2020 16:56 utc | 73

The CCP is the most ruthless group in the world, they would happily do whatever it takes to survive, think of all the Chinese famines while their storehouses were full of grain.

This really is codswallop and parroting USG propaganda. Since 1949 there has been no real famine. there great shortages and a lot of hunger after "the Great Leap Forward" but people were not dying of it and it was nothing like the famines which used to ravage China every two or three years before 1949.

Posted by: foolisholdman | Mar 20 2020 21:01 utc | 402

john brewster

If I run onto a study For a stabilised situation I will post it. The numbers are there now for anyone to see. A more thorough breakdown would be possible with more info. At the moment the only studies out that I know are those done ealiey in an epidemic while numbers are rising exponentially. To cling to those numbers now because it was done by an exspurt if foolish.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 20 2020 21:06 utc | 403

Peter, they both have immense Chinese workers and cmmunities. Read Read RJPJR'S earlier post.. or not. Up to you..

Posted by: Lozion | Mar 20 2020 21:09 utc | 404

*sorry for the typos.. multitasking..

Posted by: Lozion | Mar 20 2020 21:10 utc | 405

Nemesiscalling | Mar 19 2020 17:20 utc | 85

Mad cow disease is not a bacterial disease it is caused by a prion protein.

Posted by: foolisholdman | Mar 20 2020 21:11 utc | 406

Do Italy and Iran have 5G. You believe 5G is responsible for transmission of this disease. Or perhaps you think all those contracting the disease in Iran and Italy are Chinese who happen to have a 5G phone in their pocket.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 20 2020 21:15 utc | 407

Putin on companies selling masks skyrocketing their prices. When asked about it by the relevant official, his answer to the problem is short and sweet.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 20 2020 21:23 utc | 408

Peter AU1@408

Putin's response to price gouging echos Sun Tzu and the Lesson of the Concubines.

Posted by: krollchem | Mar 20 2020 21:37 utc | 409

Now we are communicating.

If I run onto a study For a stabilised situation I will post it.

Well thanks for offering. However, it sort of confirms the fact that no such studies exist, which is why I was complaining about a lack of peer-reviewed data.

One other point. I'm not "clinging" to numbers. I'm using the only actual numbers available. I'm willing to look at new numbers.

Also, it looks like the WSJ and Bloomberg both are going with the "99% of deaths are in people with pre-existing conditions" story from ISS. Anecdotal evidence from friends who work in hospitals near me say that all the young people in some of the major big city hospitals had pre-conditions like diabetes or heart conditions.

I am more than willing to say this is a serious health problem. I am not willing to give the gang of theives and wannabee fascists in power carte blanche to declare martial law and debase the currency to rescue crooks like Boeing and all the other stock-buyback artists.

I continue to ask why people won't consider quarantining the now-proven high risk elderly and impaired instead of everybody. At some point the economic impact of the mass lockdown is going to cause more unnecessary deaths than the virus. Of course, TPTB love a crisis; its a chance to make a killing in the stock market.

Posted by: john brewster | Mar 20 2020 21:47 utc | 410

john brewster @ 410 is addressed to Peter AU1 @ 403.

Posted by: john brewster | Mar 20 2020 21:48 utc | 411

Jeff @ 306

The Diamond Princess is an excellent model of the epidemiology of this virus. It was called out as such by a Harvard epidemiologist as well. The statistics have a reliability owing to it being a captive population and all cases were identified which has been seriously problematic in less controlled settings owing to an asymptomatic population as well as mild to moderate cases who have been counseled to avoid medical care and shelter in place or who are self isolating.

Concerns are being raised regarding bankrupting a substantial portion of the population for a death rate far,far below that of the current flu virus, especially regarding children and the fragile, at risk population. Why is this happening?

Posted by: abierno | Mar 20 2020 21:49 utc | 412

Zanon | Mar 19 2020 18:53 utc | 118

Which information did China withheld?
Ive seen this claim alot, but I havent seen any evidence, could you give me a link showing evidence of cover up by China?

I don't know but I had the impression, while listening to Pompeo, that he was angry that details that would be useful to military planners were being withheld. If not that, I don't know what he was on about.

Posted by: foolisholdman | Mar 20 2020 21:56 utc | 413

john brewster

How many people in any community are one hundred percent healthy. Going by the number of medical staff in China that died, fatigue from any cause will be a contributing factor. Somebody down with the flue that they would normally shake off ok will be at risk. All who have diabeties, high blood pressure or heart problems are at risk. On average I suspect Chinese society would be somewhat more healthy than western society.
One mitigating factor that I see as far as numbers per population is that a segment of the population has a natural immunity to the disease. One Chinese study had the majority of cases as A and O blood types, very few B and AB blood types contracted the disease. Perhaps that is the case, perhaps not. At the moment numbers from China are between 3 and 5% death rate amongst those that contract it. We shall have to wait for it to run its coarse in Italy to get the death rate over the general population when it is allowed to spread uncontrolled. 600 hundred deaths yesterday and that numbe will continue increasing for some time.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 20 2020 22:05 utc | 414

abierno 412

What is the cross section the people aboard Diamond Princess. Is it the same as what you would find in towns cities and regions.
I was hoping to use it to gauge what proportion of the population are likely to contract the virus. On the diamond Princess approx 20% were susceptible, but then again that number could be influenced by quarantine measures aboard ship and where or not the passengers and crew are representative of a general population.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 20 2020 22:20 utc | 415

Tony B. | Mar 19 2020 19:21 utc | 136

Quit the bullshit. The source of this thing has been repeatedly proven to be Ft. Detick in the state of Maryland, USA, which was suddenly shut down last summer.

That Fort Detrick was closed down for leaking is true, but proof that what it leaked turned up in Wuhan (in mutated form) is, as far as I am aware, at the moment speculation. I agree it would fit neatly into what I think happened but, What is the proof?

Posted by: foolisholdman | Mar 20 2020 22:21 utc | 416

@Posted by: Saraj | Mar 20 2020 18:35 utc | 379

On Iran and Venezuela. Venezuela, after being denied a loan by the IMF ( which could well qualify also as crime against humanity in the middle of a pandemic ), will have to pay thrice for the test kits because of the US.

Fortunately they have managed to establish a direct line with China for supply.

Then, you have this, stealing of 500.000 tests kits from an Italian factory ( which should be nationalized immediately by treason in time of emergency for the country )by Pentagon when Italy faces the worst numbers after China and worst time after the outbreak ( pick curve )

Thus it is not only Pompeo, it is a general stance of almost the whole country.

Posted by: H.Schmatz | Mar 20 2020 22:24 utc | 417

Re:"One Chinese study had the majority of cases as A and O blood types, very few B and AB blood types contracted the disease."

Is that as a percentage of each blood type or just raw numbers? I presume it must have been mentioned. It is my understanding that blood types O and A are much more common than B and A/B globally. Also did they also give data for rhesus factors?

Posted by: MarkU | Mar 20 2020 22:29 utc | 418

That last post was for Peter AU1 btw, sorry If i confused anyone.

Posted by: MarkU | Mar 20 2020 22:36 utc | 419


As I recall, type A made up 50% and type O 40%. The remaining 10% being the other blood types. The paper was linked in one of these coronavirus threads but I wouldn't know how to dig it up now other than looking right back through the coronovirus threads. Possible putting 'A blood type' or something like that in MoA search box would bring it up or a least a reference to it.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 20 2020 22:47 utc | 420

@john brewster #375
All I did was provide a data point: 5 days after the lockdown order comes out and 3 days after it starts - there is still panic buying, lines in stores and not available product.
I don't know what your problem is with a pure data point being submitted.

Posted by: c1ue | Mar 20 2020 22:50 utc | 421

railer Trash | Mar 20 2020 20:42 utc | 398

...Last I heard, and that was *years* ago, there was a giant sign hanging around its neck saying, "Keep Out"....

True dat. Union guys,bless 'em, put dat up. Then union busters threw it down. Then yesterday the mayor hung it up again. Now i don't know who they're talkin to, cuz everyone's here n i notice people startn to bend over n pick up pennies. N dats like when i arrived, in the 30s.

Posted by: chu teh | Mar 20 2020 23:00 utc | 422

Rud Istvan put up a very detailed article on potential treatments for nCOV: specifically the hydroxychloroquinine/chloroquinine and remdesivir Source

These are actually two closely related anti-malarials, hydroxychloroquine (the small French trial) and chloroquine phosphate (the larger Chinese trial). Both were developed in the 1950’s, and interestingly the main use now is to treat rheumatoid arthritis rather than malaria (which evolved resistance).

The discovery that certain classes of anti-malarials also affect rheumatoid arthritis (RA) was made quite by accident in 1951 by an asute doctor treating malaria in an RA patient. The problem then was the side effects of chronic RA use made them unacceptable for RA. The chloroquines were developed expressly as ‘milder’ side effect anti-malarials, and in the mid to late 1950’s there were a number of papers (I reviewed several for this post) reporting good RA safety and efficacy leading to global approvals for that indication.

The mechanism of chloroquine action on RA has long been well known. It increases a cell’s lysosomal pH. (Lysosomes are membrane bound cellular organelles [think tiny balloons inside the cell floating at a lower pH in the higher pH cytosol] containing about 50 enzymes, discovered and named in 1955.) This in turn changes their ‘leaked’ enzyme balance into the cytosol, which then inhibits the cell’s RA tissue antigen signaling, which in turn reduces the immune system’s attack on the RA tissue, slowing (but usually not stopping) progression of RA tissue damage.

The reason the Chinese and then the French thought to use chloroquine against Wuhan coronavirus is this same mechanism of action, albeit with different sequelae. The viral S protein binds to the epithelial cell wall’s angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptor. Raising lysosomal pH changes (via indirect enzymatic action) the ‘shape’ of ACE2 enough that the S protein cannot bind to it, thus preventing cell infection. Chloroquine changes the cell ‘lock’ so the viral ‘key’ doesn’t work. Does not undo damage from infected cells, nor prevent an infected person from shedding existing viable virus, but does stop the spread in an infected person’s body—a promising therapeutic for those testing positive.

Since safety is well known (the main side affect is retinopathy [vision problems] in 25% of patients over 50 that resolves [slowly] after discontinuation), the main FDA legal issue (FDCA Act of 1906 as amended) issue is to determine dosing and duration for this new indication. But for starters, the standard RA 250mg once a day generic cheap pill should suffice for emergency use authorization (EUA). As a ‘Big Pharma’ goodwill gesture, today (3/19) Bayer announced it donated 3 million 250mg chloroquine phosphate pills to the US to get started.

The reason Gilead tested it against SARS and MERS even though those two episodes died out naturally has to do with Remdesivir’s novel mechanism of action. The ‘drug’ is just an analog of the amino acid adenosine, one of the 20 amino acid (only, in all life on Earth, proving a common genetic ancestor) building blocks the viral polymerase uses to ‘assemble’ new copies of the viral RNA genetic code. The polymerase does not recognize the small difference between adenosine and the analog. Flood an infected cell with enough remdesivir molecules, and the polymerase will eventually grab one and add it to the ‘building’ RNA copy. Remdesivir is enough different that the polymerase is then blocked from adding any more amino acids to the RNA chain, so viral replication halts. Neat very basic molecular genetics provided at a basic science 101 level.

... Remdesivir

What Gilead scientists recognized was that the RNA code for Ebola RNA polymerase was very similar to SARS and MERS RNA polymerase, hence the in vitro testing. And when the Chinese first published the roughly 30,000 base RNA code for Wuhan coronavirus in January, it was evident immediately that it was another good RNA polymerase match, so they started immediate in vitro testing once viral samples were in hand.

Aside from price (Gilead is infamous for its Hep C cure that ‘only’ costs about $100,000 per treated patient), and scaled up availability (none yet, same issue that killed my 3 of 4 EUA for a persistent hand sanitizer in the 2009 swine flu pandemic), there are questions about dosing and treatment timing. There is some thought that remdesivir may not be useful past symptom day 10 or 11, typically when a patient worsens to need an ICU ventilator. The concern logic is simple. Remdesivir blocks virion replication in an infected cell, but not its spread to newly infected cells by virions from previously infected cells. So basically a quantity/quality argument saying eventually blocking further spread when you already need a ventilator for viral pneumonia is futile. Those clinical questions are why China is conducting a double blind (drug/placebo) trial on ~790 patients in Beijing and Gilead is conducting an unblinded smaller trial in the US, starting in Nebraska with Diamond Princess patients. The first results from both will be available sometime in April.


But chloroquine still has the same Wuhan issue illustrated by its previous use for malaria–evolving resistance. RNA viruses like Wuhan coronavirus mutate rapidly (explained in my first post on this topic). The most conserved protein is necessarily the RNA polymerase. We know this from influenza, where it is the hemagglutinin and neuraminidase envelope proteins (equivalent to Wuhan S) that mutate so the annual vaccine is never ‘right’. Chloroquine may well be effective now, but if Wuhan coronavirus becomes endemic (now likely given its spread in Africa and Southeast Asia), then it is not a long-term solution like a vaccine. But it will probably buy the precious time to get a vaccine.

Remdesivir may be a longer-term therapeutic solution, because it tricks the conserved RNA polymerase. But its cost and efficacy remain to be determined.

This is a much more useable description:
1) why the chloroquinines could work, the mechanism, the side effects (vision impairment! temporary but significant in older patients) and the fact that abuse will lead to nCOV likely evolving around chloroquinine operation, and
2) remdesivir - how it works but the fact that it is experimental, expensive and not available. And it is primarily a preventative - it has to be used to stop the progress of an nCOV infection early. If used on a late stage patient where pneumonia, edema and sepsis are at play - it is unlikely to help.

Posted by: c1ue | Mar 20 2020 23:01 utc | 423

And note that anti-inflammatory effects are irrelevant for both of the potential treatments above.
That's why I prefer data and mechanisms for proposed function rather than blanket statements.
If we look at the nCOV life cycle as described by Dr. Chuchalin as a potential kill-chain to stop the disease:
1) virusemia - this is the first 7-10 days where only regular flu symptoms are felt. Remdesivir makes sense given the above description. Cholorquinines may also help.
2) viral and bacterial pneumonia. Either remdesivir or chloroquinine is part of the discussion but only a small part. The opportunistic invaders still have to be stopped. Chuchalin described 4th gen cephalosporins as a treatment.
3) edema - no magic bullet here
4) sepsis - no magic bullet here. There *might* be some vitamin C therapy benefit, but it is at best incremental (huge percent still die) but even this is very possibly illusory. The CITRIS trial had a significantly lower (0.61) SOFA organ failure scoring delta between the Vitamin C cohort and the placebo cohort - this makes up at least part of the difference in mortality, and the entire difference might just be composed of the extremes in cohort SOFA breakdown, because the placebo cohort saw a shallower slope of SOFA score reduction than the Vitamin C even as the majority of deaths occurred in the first 2-3 days.
There is no indication whatsoever that Vitamin C makes any difference whatsoever prior to this stage 4/sepsis.

Posted by: c1ue | Mar 20 2020 23:10 utc | 424


Both drugs were tested in vitro and quickly killed the virus at small concentrations compared to other drugs tested. In trials on patients, when tested after several days, no virus detected.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 20 2020 23:20 utc | 425

Peter, read the post. i wont repeat what was said except that A-Wuhan was a major 5G deployment area with B-lots of workers travelling to Italy and/or Iran during the Christian Holidays and Chinese New Year, spreading the virus unbeknownst to most..

Posted by: Lozion | Mar 20 2020 23:29 utc | 426


A lot of thread space taken up copying and posting the opinion of somebody whos main area of expertise is centered around blowing smoke.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 20 2020 23:30 utc | 427

@Peter AU1
Yes, but again - the mechanism is such that it likely needs to be taken before serious complications occur. I.e. you feel a flu, you take one or the other drug.
Choloroqui* in particular has serious side effects - going full or partially blind for the duration + some of the chloroqui* medication, plus the likelihood that poor usage will accelerate the advent of nCOV evolving around chloroqui* effectiveness.
Neither is a magic bullet - these drugs need to be used appropriately and in ways that won't cause more harm and at the right time.

Posted by: c1ue | Mar 20 2020 23:32 utc | 428

@Peter AU1 #427
Frankly, your ongoing crusade of ignorance is more than a little tiring.
Rud Istvan actually worked to create a new type of sanitizer for the 2009 flu.
So unlike you, he had direct experience with medical regulations, with creating a product for the medical market and he has also done a lot of research then (and now) to understand and communicate the operating mechanisms behind these 2 drugs.

Instead of reading what he has written and critiquing the scientific basis behind it, you attempt to ad hominem.
Sad, really.

By all means, continue to wallow in ignorance.

Posted by: c1ue | Mar 20 2020 23:39 utc | 429

Peter AU1 @ 415

Here's a link to a popular summary of a PDF about the Diamond Princess:

Diamond Princess Mysteries

To answer the basic question, the population had many more old people than a normal population.
There's a bar chart in the article showing that.

Posted by: john brewster | Mar 20 2020 23:58 utc | 430


You are correct in pointing out advanced stages of viral infection limit the effectiveness of many antiviral medications. They are also not recommended for those not yet infected due to the side effects you mention.

hydroxychloroquinine/chloroquinine function as a Zinc Ionophore inhibiting the virus replicase as described in Medcram #39. Quercetin and other non-toxic bioflavanoids appear to serve the same function:

Zinc Ionophore Activity of Quercetin and Epigallocatechin-gallate: From Hepa 1-6 Cells to a Liposome Model

This is the approach being taken by Canadian doctors I previously cited. We shall see if they are effective. As I previously mentioned, the co-morbidities and age are highly correlated with the disease progression toward organ injury and often death.

Posted by: krollchem | Mar 21 2020 0:04 utc | 431

abierno | Mar 20 2020 21:49 utc | 412

A major question regarding the study of the Diamond Princess's passengers is whether, once they were let off the boat returned home, there has been any follow-up.

Given that there have been reported cases of incubation lasting up to five weeks, it would seem that follow-up would be essential, for many of those who tested positive but had no symptoms could later develop COVID-19.

As for the role that G5 may have played, I keep thinking of the Swiss Medical Association fighting its implementation (a fight that continues, more vehemently than ever) owing to its harmfulness to human health.

The Swiss government set up an "independent" commission to study the health effects of G5, and last November it issued its conclusion that there was absolutely no danger to health, human or otherwise.

The commission was chaired and run by Martin Röösli, who has spent his life in service to the telecommunications industry. All the other members of the commission had numerous links to the telecommunications industry.

In a letter sent to the members of the government by registered mail, the published conclusions have been challenged by Dr Lennart Hardell, one of the world's eminent experts on electromagnetic radiation, backed by over 20 equally world-class scientists. They are demanding an independent commission of study.

The Swiss government has not even acknowledged receipt of the letter. In the meantime, the government is granting licenses to the telecommunications companies to put up G5 antennas, provided that they are not used for G5 until the appropriate legislation gets passed.

At the same time, there is a movement afoot to challenge G5 through a national people's initiative.

In short, the danger of G5 must not be dismissed, for there is a plethora of scientific literature demonstrating its harmfulness.

Posted by: RJPJR | Mar 21 2020 0:04 utc | 432


Early intervention with anti virus Drugs I believe is critical and I have thought this for a number of days now. Once it gets to the stage of bacterial pneumonia, then it is a very poor outlook for the patient. Most will ether die or what is appearing to be the case, suffer permanent lung injury if they live.
Taking the numbers as they are and as we can see them is not a crusade of ignorance.
Unlike your hero, I have an auto immune type condition that I have had top live with. That something similar was happening in the case of this virus caught my eye very early on.
I have twice had conditions that where unknown to doctors at the time. Juvenile spondylitis and the early onset ankylosing spondylitis. Nearly 15 years ago I was hit with what is now call mammal meat allergy. It wasn't know or recognised at the time. On top of what I already have, it knocked the shit out of me. I have put in a lot of time on medical research and recognise shit when I see it. I was fed a lot of shit hy doctors, to the point I researched and then asked for and paid for various medical tests.
I looked for and found and traveled 2000k to see a doctor that had been sick with an undiagnosed illness himself. He was a completely different person to talk to.
Your current hero uses the US political term for the virus - Wuhan Virus. He is politically oriented rather than medically oriented.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 21 2020 0:05 utc | 433

433 comments… I did not read them all. How many will read this? 2?

The main point first…

On this ECDC page one can find a chart named "Distribution of COVID-19 cases worldwide, as of 20 March 2020" which is very worrying, notice compared to "China" how much steeper the "outside China" curve has gotten even if one considers the number of cases for the last day to have been an outlier. It's not the number itself that is crucial but the gradient of the curve becuse this indicates the speed of transmission of the virus.

If it's not an outlier it can very easily (almost certainly) already have gone nearly vertical due to the lag in time between transmission and detection :(

Some (many?) commenters do not seem to grasp just how serious the situation has become and should be treated. According to the latest data it is now far worse than anything that was seen in China. Far worse.

For those who are very keen on coincidences being "coincidences" my own circumstancial and likely random anecdotal impression is that today was the day they toned down detailed numerical public coverage. Maybe I'm giving everyone another dead horse to both resuscitate and kick simultaneously? :P If that's right then many here are truly missing the forest for the trees.

- - -

If anyone is dumb enough to want to create a "killer virus" to spread globally they don't need any BSL (Bio Safety Level) kind of safeguards at all, not even if they want to survive, since 1. they deliberately want an environmental release, and 2. protection can be achieved on a much more limited and less stringent scale for such a loon.

If the question will matter at all is for the future to decide. The facts of it will not be found in some internet post.

- - -

To "Tom74": as far as I can tell there's currently far more disinformation or similar here in comments than from most governments except possibly the US. Of course a lot of the comments here could easily be from "agents of governments" and people here are generally aware of that right? At least the regulars know.

To "Hmpf": that's getting into the topic of comorbidity. It is normal in medicine when it is deemed extremely likely that (in this case) COVID-19 was the last straw and final push to cause death then it is named as the reason. It is entirely correct to do this and it makes all the sense in the world.

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Mar 21 2020 0:14 utc | 434

john brewster 430

Thanks for the link to the chart. At the low infection rate, I had thought it was perhaps a cruise for young people but that is not the case. A large proportion of older people. Perhaps though of general better health than what would be in a cross section of a town.
Whatever the average health of those on board, it would seem 20% of a population are susceptible, give or take a bit depending on average health.

If it turns out that only around 20% of a population is susceptible but 3 to 5% mortality rate with good medical care, that covers the actual numbers we are seeing from China but would also mean mortality as a percentage of overall population is much lower.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 21 2020 0:20 utc | 435

the greta thunberg age group will surely benefit.the boomers have left them a terrible world.what can I say.if you are presently in the age group 50 and over beware.
that's right.....beware

Posted by: mcohen | Mar 21 2020 0:31 utc | 436

Sunny Runny Burger

I doubt its an outlier. A number of countries have not bothered with testing and tracking and have allowed it to spread in low numbers through the country. You can see them on various stats where at the beginning small numbers of cases are reported from various parts of the country and it is not tracked back to source. I have been watching the numbers on the Hopkins tracker site, but its the various news reports that give an idea whether or not a country has allowed the virus to spread.
If US doesn't turn into another Italy in the coming weeks then I would be suspicious they have a vaccine. Uk may go that way too.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 21 2020 0:33 utc | 437

foolisholdman | Mar 20 2020 22:21 utc | 416 (and Tony B)

just fyi, no endorsement.( You know what Wally thinks, Sammy did it and it's an opening gambit to "do" Iran and Chine. Just opinion.)

see "COVID-19: All Truth Has Three Stages"

Posted by: Walter | Mar 21 2020 0:43 utc | 438


November 17- A months after Event 201 hosted by John Hopkins University and attended by Dr Gao of Chinese CDC the first known patient of Covid 19 is treated (known retrospectively)

Sometime between November 17-Dec 28, awareness of and investigation of some new serious pneumonia cases in Wuhan. Keeping in mind that there are thousands of such cases daily in a population of 11 million which has heavy pollution, an aging population and large number of smokers during the flu season. Cant understand how they figured out there might be a new virus but after SARS they probably were always on alert for it toreturn.

December 29, according to Caixin the industry leader Huada Gene (Shenzhen, China) completed a case of gene sequencing, and the results showed that the virus and SARS gene sequence similarity was as high as 80%.

On December 31, 2019, the Wuhan Municipal Health and Health Commission announced multiple cases of pneumonia were related to the South China seafood market.

On December 31, the first expert group of the National Health Commission on December 31, 2019. Peng Zhiyong, director of Critical Care Medicine confirmed the diagnostic criteria was 1)have a history of exposure to the South China seafood market; 2) have a fever Symptoms; 3) whole genome sequencing. All three criteria are required to confirm the diagnosis. A study since issued by Lancet reported that of the 41 known cases 1/3 had no contact with the market or anyone who had. So why limit testing to those who had exposure to the market?

On January 1, 2020, the South China Seafood Market was closed for a environmental sanitation rectification.
Presumably the confiscated all live animals and tested them. They have not reported which animals if any tested positive. No bats are sold in the market.

On January 1, Huida Genes three sample test reports were submitted to the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission.

On Jan 2 , Wang Yanyi, director of ‪Wuhan‬ Institute of Virology, issued a notice to researchers, forbidding anyone to release info on the virus without permission.

Jan 3, 2020- After Wuhan Public Security investigation and detention of eight doctors who posted on social media about the virus and were accused of spreading “illegal and false” information, the eight were made to sign a Letter saying that they had “severely disrupted social order.” State media followed this up with reminders from the police that it would pursue anyone else who spread false rumors. 

Dr. Li’s subsequent death generated 800 million comments on Weibo by midnight and over 80,000 Chinese have been infected to date (SARS killed 800 people). Lots of 8’s here. 8 is a lucky number in Chinese sounding like father (ba). In fact 8/8 is Fathers Day.

On Jan 5, Zhang’s Yongzhens team at Shanghai Public Health Clinical Centre isolated and finished the genome sequence of the then-unknown virus on January 5. The Shanghai centre reported its discovery to the National Health Commission on the same day

Jan 9, China’s officially announces that mysterious pneumonia cases in Wuhan were caused by a hitherto unknown coronavirus.

Jan 11. Zhangs team made the finding public after it saw that the authorities had taken no obvious action to warn the public about the coronavirus.

China’s National Health Commission announced hours after the release by Zhang’s team that it would share the genome sequence with the World Health Organisation. It later emerged that the information had been sent through the officially designated Wuhan Institute of Virology.

Jan 12. According to an article in SCMP today the laboratory at the Shanghai Public Health Clinical Centre was ordered to close for “rectification” on January 12, a day after Professor Zhang Yongzhen’s team published the genome sequence on open platforms.

January 18, the second group of experts such as Zhong Nanshan of the National Health Commission on December 31, 2019 revised the diagnostic criteria after 16 consecutive days of NO NEW CASES (clearly impossible). After relaxing the criteria new cases spiked dramatically.

On January 22, Gao Fu, director of the National Center for Disease Control and Prevention, said that the source of the New Coronavirus in Wuhan was wild animals illegally sold in a seafood market in Wuhan.

On January 23, 2020, Wuhan declared lockdown. Subsequent cities and provinces followed in the next days but a few million people had already departed Wuhan by this time for the weeklong New Year Holidays .

In any event, since we still don’t know how the virus made the jump to man and Wuhan did have a major BSL-4 lab near the market and their scientists and military had been doing a lot of gain of function studies on bat viruses (as was the US) I will hold off being “grateful” to them.

Posted by: Pft | Mar 21 2020 0:47 utc | 439

@ 434 Sunny Runny Burger .. if it is any consolation, i find you are one of the more thoughtful posters at moa and i always make a point of reading what you have to say.. it is easy as you tend to not post very much either... i don't know what this is, but as you note with the graph on the link you share, this is something that we all better get a handle on soon, as it has eclipsed what china has had to deal with already and i shudder to think of how far it has to go... thanks for your post..

Posted by: james | Mar 21 2020 0:52 utc | 440

@ Sunny Runny Burger | Mar 21 2020 0:14 utc | 434

Ah, I see, wikipedia.
Did you indeed read what I wrote? No symptoms - stage 1.
Honestly, I prefer talking to friends (MDs) working in the field and listen to what they have to say.

Many people that die have serious preconditions due their life long living habits - diabetes, heart problems, high blood pressure and so forth. If you have high blood pressure alter your diet, eat chili on a regular basis that helps a lot, same goes with acquired diabetes and heart problems - lower stress, have a healthy diet and exercise. Unfortunately most seem to be unwilling to compensate for unhealthy habits they're not willing or able to give up.
A cynic, which I'm not, would say: The chickens come home to roost.
Do you think I'm that much different? Being in my mid-50s and smoking, I'm not. But please accept responsibility for personal conduct and try to compensate. My blood pressure's just fine, heart's doing great, no diabetes - why? No junk food, very little beef and pork. I grow most of our food myself, 80% of protein we eat I fish myself and garden work and fishing help me stay fit physically. Besides life comes with risks, which most in the West seem to have forgotten or suppressed.

The above I want to add is totally different to health issues like the one Peter's suffering from.

Posted by: Hmpf | Mar 21 2020 1:08 utc | 441

btw if anyone thinks the chinese are telling the truth about their numbers is really fooling themselves

nobody talks aboit how social media posts that were negative to China went blavk sometime in February. no more video os croqded hospital, people convulsing or dropping on the ground, or bodies in bags lined up on the streets

all of that is gone now. please dont tell me you believe those #s

Posted by: Comandante | Mar 21 2020 1:40 utc | 442

Some of that propaganda is still out and about. Our state owned media, ABC, is pushing some of this crap supposedly from people in China. Waste of time trying to push it here though. Most have got over tossing babies out of cribs and all that exciting stuff.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 21 2020 1:55 utc | 444

I hear a nickname for this corona-virus going around; its now being called the Kung-flu.......

Posted by: Robert | Mar 21 2020 2:02 utc | 445

Walter @438

Trying to find anything definitive about who & where these Japanese & Taiwanese researchers are from seems impossible to find.

I don't expect much from google but DuckDuckGo doesn't throw up anything either - results are all rather circular.

It would be interesting to read something from the source.

Posted by: ted01 | Mar 21 2020 2:31 utc | 446

: ted01 | Mar 21 2020 2:31 utc | 446 Yes, indeed so, I too noticed a defective or unsatisfactory bibliography in the article.

Posted by: Walter | Mar 21 2020 2:35 utc | 447

>Trying to find anything definitive about who & where these Japanese & Taiwanese >researchers are from seems impossible to find.

If they have published research in a scientific journal there should be an abstract on PubMed. Even if the journal is in Mandarin or Japanese there is often an English abstract. Authors want people to be able to find (and cite) their work. The abstract will list all the authors, the name of their institutions, even an email address for the corresponding author. PubMed is one of the few things NIH gets right.

Posted by: Trailer Trash | Mar 21 2020 2:44 utc | 448

tedo1 and Walter

Looks like the story originated with a Japanese TV station

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 21 2020 2:45 utc | 449

Trailer Trash @448
Thanks - tried a few different search queries - nothing jumping out. Read a couple of abstracts but my eyes tended to glaze over.

Peter Au1 @449
All pretty vague like the other reports.
One of the comments reminded me of the 5 strains found in US vs 1 strain in China. But again no detail.

Posted by: ted01 | Mar 21 2020 3:18 utc | 450

In case anyone thought that the covid test kits spirited outta Italy were for amerikans, think again, your government, diplomatic corps & military stole these kits for Occupied Palestine aka israel.
Nice eh, not content with theft now the zionists plan on counterfeiting the Italian kits:

Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency was able to deliver 100,000 new coronavirus test kits collected overseas to local labs overnight Wednesday, Channel 12 News reported Thursday.

In the next few days, the Mossad will facilitate the delivery of 4 million additional kits. Mossad director Yossi Cohen is said to be personally overseeing the operation.

So poor people unable to access a kit to ascertain whether your mother's dry cough is the real thing, there is no point in whining to some federal government employee when it makes more sense to turn a zionist upside down & shake him for a kit. May I suggest one of the smarmy two-faced pseudo xtian preachers who are always rabbiting on about how israel is great and will bring about 'end times'. It is they who have generated & sustained the move away from amerika looking after its own citizens, preferring to fund israel's free medical program instead of one for amerika.

Posted by: A User | Mar 21 2020 3:19 utc | 451

The numbers and timing match. US making it a military operation and landing the kits at an airforce base was also very sus. I thought commandeering the Italian kits for their own use was bad enough but thieving them off the Italians to give to the zionists....

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 21 2020 3:52 utc | 452

Hmpf: sorry for the confusion, my mistake. I should have taken the time to point out that I responded to a much earlier comment of yours (Mar 20 2020 9:29 utc 316) but thought it would be apparent:

"Also, Italians do port-mortem testing, meaning if a patient dies of a heart attack or late stage cancer, gets p-m tested positive for nCOVID, then the deceased is determined to be a victim of COVID. Doesn't make sense."
That's what I was replying to since it does make perfect sense. Also; any doctor will know about comorbidity and the Wikipedia link was for reference.

James: thank you for the kind words but it was more about how long these threads get, it would take much more time than I have to keep up with them. There were many people around though so I was wrong :)

I also agree with the latest posts by everyone looking for solid publications (PubMed and DOI links) on the Japanese and Taiwanese story. It seems to be pure fantasy.

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Mar 21 2020 3:54 utc | 453

Are those the same kits the zionists couldn't make work because they were missing some custom and likely proprietary medical liquid or solution that the tests needed? (I don't know).

Peter AU1: yes I doubt it's an outlier as well :(

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Mar 21 2020 3:59 utc | 454

Re patient zero or one in the US. I doubt it kicked off early in the US for the simple fact that no US hospitals are swamped with pneumonia cases. Once news comes out of a US hospital being swamped it will be possible to guestimate when this coronavirus first started spread in the US.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 21 2020 4:12 utc | 455

"In a video conference with the heads of several medical universities, Raisi said that 22 million and 500,000 people were screened in the country’s national campaign in fight against coronavirus, of which, one and a half million people are being monitored to gain full health.

He mentioned that Iran’s IRGC and Basij (volunteers) forces are ready to add more than a thousand temporary clinics to monitor the health of new coronavirus patients, due to the fact that some provinces could not keep their clinics active for long hours but some of their patients need urgent care in less than 24 hours.

Raeisi also reiterated that some people still haven't taken the novel coronavirus seriously, so the prosecutors across the country are obliged to accompany the medical universities and take necessary precautions."

It looks as though the virus has spread unimpeded through the country. Numbers (deaths recovered ect) on the coronavirus tracker has changed very little in the last few days. I guess they will tally it up when it is over.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 21 2020 4:28 utc | 456

Oh geez, I hate having to post this article.

iran Italy paying price for ties with china

The author of this piece suffers from staggering hubris and entitlement.

When the death toll in U.S. cities skyrockets people will start to know what it feels like to live in the countries the U.S. government ravaged. Imagine criticizing Iran for turning to China for help while the Trump administration is bleeding their economy dry with blistering sanctions?

Posted by: Circe | Mar 21 2020 4:32 utc | 457


I agree with Circe's conclusion that America as well as France and the UK will face much more death and destruction than China and Iran suffered regardless of the source of this virus. The nature of the predatory corporate capitalism system cannot be fixed and the collapse was baked in before the virus catalyzed this collapse.

It will be a rough ride and the virus consequence will be dwarfed by the secondary effects. Such hope the end result doesn't include nuclear war...

Posted by: Krollchem | Mar 21 2020 5:08 utc | 458

Circe 457

Glancing through the article, and then reading through some of the comments removed any chance of me having sympathy for the US when the bodies start to pile up.
Numbers of confirmed cases in US are skyrocketing now. Time lag on death numbers is about a week as the walking dead must become carcases before they can be counted.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 21 2020 5:13 utc | 459

Posted by: Circe | Mar 21 2020 4:32 utc | 457

Oh geez, I hate having to post this article.

Thanks she got the same twisted mind like Pompeo. Oops I mean Gordon Chang.

Posted by: JC | Mar 21 2020 5:19 utc | 460

Regarding the US as origin -
Link posted earlier by IronForge gives more detail - they call him a top virologist & pharmacologist but don't actually name him.

There is a video of his presentation in Chinese -

Posted by: ted01 | Mar 21 2020 5:26 utc | 461

Pertaining to the theory that COVID-19 is a "chimera" virus with origins in both bats and pangolins:

Posted by: Thirdeye | Mar 21 2020 7:16 utc | 462

I'm going to try to post for one last time.
My posts keep disappearing in spite of being factual.
I used to donate to this site but unfortunately I cannot under the current censorship.

Posted by: Kaiama | Mar 21 2020 7:19 utc | 463

re foolisholdman | Mar 20 2020 21:01 utc | 402
All the famine talk spewed out by fukUS over the years is so transparently false it always bothers me than Jo/Joe Citizen continues to lap it up.
Anyone who is actually interested in Soviet or Chinese citizens & their history would know that Russians, Ukrainians & Chinese suffered numerous regular famines before their revolutions but few if any after.
Why is it that Africa, by far the wealthiest continent on this planet or here still gets forced to endure regular famines courtesy of its exploiters?
Better yet why is it the west never has to cop the blame for this?
A/ Because it has never been held accountable for the hundreds of millions born on the wrong side of the divide it depends upon for enrichment.
eg between 1880 & 1892 Russia had 3 famines, the last (1881-1892 was so egregious (a decision had been made by the aristocracy to export as much of the grain harvest as possible in order to get sufficient gold for Russia to have its very own industrial revolution, that the tsar very nearly lost his gig then rather than his son Nicky in 1917).
Grover Furr an amerikan academic has done considerable research debunking the 'Stalin caused a famine' nonsense & I would reference his findings if I hadn't lent my copies of some of his books to my daughter.
AFAIK there is one vital issue that any famines must be considered by:
If either nation did have famines following their revolutions, they only had one as the inexperienced party officials learnt their business.
Whereas under the previous capitalist/feudal models famines were a regular occurrence, considered to be a part of the Boom, Bang, Bust cycle of predatory capitalism.
As I suspect amerikans are about to learn for themselves.

Posted by: A User | Mar 21 2020 7:35 utc | 464

ps apologies for going off topic, but it is more productive to piss into the wind than try & reply, still sustaining a train of thought in some other thread.

Posted by: A User | Mar 21 2020 7:39 utc | 465

Somewhere back in these coronavirus threads, I believe there was a link to a section of video on the John Hopkins pandemic exercise. From what I remember the virus for the pandemic came about by two coronavirus strains recombining, each having a part of what is required for a pandemic capable virus.

The link put up by Thirdeye @462 is worth reading.

The authors bio...
My research aims to understand the evolution of biodiversity through phylogenetic studies and temporal.
Molecular phylogeny
Systematic (mainly ruminants and bats)
Biogeography/Phylogeography (with a particular interest in the faunas of Africa and Asia, and the geological periods of the Neogene and Quaternary)
Molecular taxonomy
Molecular Evolution

From the article. Original here
"This recombination mechanism had already been described in coronaviruses, in particular to explain the origin of SARS-CoV. It is important to know that recombination results in a new virus potentially capable of infecting a new host species. For recombination to occur, the two divergent viruses must have infected the same organism simultaneously.

Two questions remain unanswered: in which organism did this recombination occur? (a bat, a pangolin or another species?) And above all, under what conditions did this recombination take place?"

A virus strain specific to the bat had to recombine with a strain specific to the pangolin.
Best way to achieve this I would guess is place them together in vitro to gain a seed virus.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 21 2020 8:32 utc | 466

Posted by: A User | Mar 21 2020 3:19 utc | 451

And here I was thinking what a great "patriotic" work it was that the US Ambassador to Italy Lewis Eisenberg was doing for the American People. Now you go and squash my Illusion by pointing out that the final destination was the Land of Zion.

Ha ha ha .... It never fails that in the end the Joke is Always On Me the Little Prole.

"Wake-up Winston, it was just a Joke")

Posted by: Tom_LX | Mar 21 2020 8:33 utc | 467

Event 201
"The Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security in partnership with the World Economic Forum and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation hosted Event 201, a high-level pandemic exercise on October 18, 2019, in New York, NY. The exercise illustrated areas where public/private partnerships will be necessary during the response to a severe pandemic in order to diminish large-scale economic and societal consequences."

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 21 2020 8:42 utc | 468

Looking into it a bit more, the exercise was October 2018 rather than 2019 as I had thought.
Name of the hypothetical bug was Clade X and a parainfluenza virus rather than coronavirus.

"Lab analysis showed that Clade X had been deliberately engineered; bioterrorists, the Council learned, had inserted genes for neurologic virulence of Nipah into the parainfluenza genome."

The hypothetical is a genetically engineered Frankenstein bug made from sections of two different viruses whereas the current coronavirus may be a recombination of two known strains that colonise different hosts.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 21 2020 9:02 utc | 469

Posted by: A User | Mar 21 2020 7:35 utc | 464

All the famine talk spewed out by fukUS over the years is so transparently false it always bothers me than Jo/Joe Citizen continues to lap it up.

They are naive but the same goes for the rest of Europe. I once spoke with a German couple on vacationing about the stream of refugees that Merkel just opened the Gates of EU for. They were in their early 70's. Both highly educated. The man had some important position in a chemical firm. When I suggested that opening the gates was a dangerous thing for EU and Germany the lady countered by saying "Well we MUST help people." (the lady seemed very sincere). After a time she intimated that she was very worried for her grandchildren's Future !!! At this point I just bit my tongue and let the conversation take a different direction.

Anyone who is actually interested in Soviet or Chinese citizens & their history would know that Russians, Ukrainians & Chinese suffered numerous regular famines before their revolutions but few if any after.

I'll just add my few cennts worth of knowledge on the issues you raise.

Few people realize how poor the Russian Empire was despite the fact that it has that word "empire" characterizing it. Serfdom lasted the longest on these land if we assume that Russian was part of Europe. People and the village they lived in were freely traded, given or exploited as the given moment required by the Upper Class. These people were exploited to the max. The how is the interesting aspect which requires careful reading to understand who it was and how it was worked. That discussion typically gets ,to put it mildly, "over heated".

The Romanov Dynasty was NOT Russian. They had German roots and mentality but even this in the end did not save them. Family looks best on a photo.

Grover Furr an amerikan academic has done considerable research debunking the 'Stalin caused a famine' nonsense & I would reference his findings if I hadn't lent my copies of some of his books to my daughter.

Furr was not my main sources but I also came to the conclusion that Stalin is a Devil mainly due to Hollywood and Western Propaganda Machine. The situation is much more nuanced and complicated but the Devil meme is the best one to serve to the Public as it only has a 5 min. attention span.

Whereas under the previous capitalist/feudal models famines were a regular occurrence, considered to be a part of the Boom, Bang, Bust cycle of predatory capitalism.

The Middle Europe Slavic nations had fewer problems with this !!

Posted by: Tom_LX | Mar 21 2020 9:19 utc | 470


My only thought about Stalin now is that he was a man for his times. Everybody likes to blame the early hit when Germany attacked as being due to Stalin's purges but I am not too sure about that. Russian military did not have a good record for the prior decades. Destruction of the fleet by the Japanese and not much of a showing in WWI.
Without Stalin and his restlessness and putting Beria in charge of war production, Germany may well have overrun the Soviet Union.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 21 2020 9:32 utc | 471

@c1ue #337

Great comment, thank you.

Posted by: S | Mar 21 2020 9:34 utc | 472

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 21 2020 9:32 utc | 471

Germany may well have overrun the Soviet Union.

Soviet Union would have been toast without Lend-Lease enacted by FDR on March 11, 1941.

Operation Barbarossa (German: Unternehmen Barbarossa) was the code name for the Axis invasion of the Soviet Union, which started on Sunday, 22 June 1941, during World War II.

Wink wink .... :-)

Posted by: Tom_LX | Mar 21 2020 9:42 utc | 473

I watched a number of the russian tv WWII doco films on youtube. Compared to Russian equipment, US equipment was minute in quantity in those early days of stopping the German attack. By the time the Soviets had started pushing the Germans back there was one or two groupings of american tanks but numbers were still small compared to soviet tanks. That also is similar to other reading I have done. US make a big song and dance about it and say the supply saved Russia and although that supply would have been appreciated, it was only a tiny portion of the soviet equipment.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 21 2020 9:53 utc | 474

H.Schmatz @ 417 -- "Venezuela, after being denied a loan by the IMF ( which could well qualify also as crime against humanity in the middle of a pandemic ), will have to pay thrice for the test kits because of the US. Fortunately they have managed to establish a direct line with China for supply."

All in the name of western values....
-- IMF wdn't lend to Venezuela;
-- EU wdn't lend to Italy;
-- Swiss wdn't sell to Iran;
-- US ups sanctions on Iran during a pandemic;
-- Pentagon enters mask freight-forwarding usiness;
-- Mossad enters mask procurement business;
-- UK tells oldies to take it on the chin;

Posted by: kiwiklown | Mar 21 2020 9:59 utc | 475

Walter @ 326 -- "The CV19 is the upset table. The Imperial zuswang is over."

Love your erudition. Love your educated mind even more.

The losing side kicks the table over to ask for a rematch ( but on his terms, LOL ).

This is The Great Reset, long-predicted in financial / monetary circles since the GFC (Global Financial Crash) of 2008.

Posted by: kiwiklown | Mar 21 2020 10:03 utc | 476

@ c1ue | Mar 20 2020 12:51 utc | 337

Thanks for the comment, but in the 1918 flu pandemic the peak of defunctions was at 28 years old, when the adult body is in his peak of fortitude and the immune system is more prepared to tackle any infection. The people more affected were in their 20 - 40 years, and was much mild disease fot the younger and older. There are many records of the age of people who died of the 1918 pandemic

For the epidemiologist it seems that precisely was a consequence of the strong and vital immune system of the young that the lethality was so high because the cause of death seems to be, in the majority of cases the infamous "cytokines storm" were the immune system go crazy and fill the lungs with linfocites and antobodies in a over-reaction that suffocate the patients.

It seems that today the cytokine storms are behind a good part of mortality in the Covid-19 pandemic:

If fact some epidemiologist are thinking that there were an old epidemy that affect the immune system before and then "confuse" the immune system when the pandemic strike. In 1918 seems to be the called "Russian flu" of 1890, and now?:

Posted by: DFC | Mar 21 2020 10:06 utc | 477

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 21 2020 9:53 utc | 474

Yes Peter, it was Russian equipment on the front lines. We just don't know the details of what was going on in those factories, supplies for those little bits and pieces to make the big thing. Did Lend-Lease make a difference there ? Suvorov wrote some interesting stuff on this subject.

But I take your point. I might be inhaling the Amerika PR a bit too much.

However I am convinced that "The Plan" was to do all that is possible to bleed the Germans and the Soviets (hence help) to the MAX. THEN when the smoke cleared come and clean up. To a point I think it worked.

Posted by: Tom_LX | Mar 21 2020 10:08 utc | 478

You got me thinking when was the last payment made by Russia for that aid. Here it is,

Yes. The Russian (for Soviet), and also the English, final Lend-Lease payments were made to USA just 10 years ago in 2006. USA was not involved in WWII for more then 2 years from Sept. 1939 to Des.

Corona likewise will be all about Big Money but for the wrong people.

Posted by: Tom_LX | Mar 21 2020 10:16 utc | 479


Light trucks may have been the most useful item US sent. I recall them being mentioned a bit in some of what I have seen and read, but tanks and planes hardly get a mention.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 21 2020 10:17 utc | 480

Whoa b, take it easy with the deleting and blocking--you still sure that there's no panic involved? What happened to "bad speech can only be countered by more good speech"? You are our esteemed host, not an authority figure--in a forum attractive to the very people inclined to distrust authority figures. Several responders have raised substantial qualifications to your purported myth/fact list.

As others have also pointed out, a priori, "escaped from a lab" could mean "containment failure during vaccine research"--it doesn't imply "deliberate bioweapon attack". Given how the US has been absolutely non-transparent about the sudden closure of Fort Detrick, "vaping disease", etc, these are legitimate avenues of inquiry--if only to maybe dismiss them later as more knowledge becomes available.

Likewise, I have to concur with others that reference to the sanity of US weapons researchers is neither here nor there. Au contraire, the Dark Throne has been consistently rabid in the quest to harm its enemies, to the point that the US accidentally nuked its own territory during the original Cold War with a hydrogen bomb which miraculously failed to go off. b starts well by saying "the origin of the virus is not yet known" but then makes some dubious categorical statements all the same.

Posted by: Ma Laoshi | Mar 21 2020 10:29 utc | 481

Tom_LX @ 478

They procrastinated, delayed their help, sent insignificant "supplies" while Russia repeatedly urged America to send the goods.

Why lift a finger when your two most powerful enemies are bleeding each other?

The perfidy of it all was to then prepare a sneak attack on a weakened Russia using nukes! They actually made two, not one such nuking plan, the second one more devastating than the first.

Does that not sound like upping sanctions on an Iran already-weakened by a pandemic?

Posted by: kiwiklown | Mar 21 2020 10:30 utc | 482

Regarding numbers.
There are some of the earlier studies from China still being used to try and depict the death rate while ignoring current numbers.
Those studies of death rates as a percentage of confirmed cases would need to allow for the average length of time after becoming a confirmed case until death. Say the average is five days then the death rate on a given day must be compared to the confirmed numbers five days previous.

Not allowing for the length of time is takes a confirmed case to die during a period when confirmed case numbers are rising exponentially gives a much a much lower and misleading death rate.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 21 2020 10:31 utc | 483

Hi all

Data from CDC about the age of people requiring hospitalization and ICU in USA from February 12 to March 16:

This is not Italy or China, this is for USA, and the CDC say:

"Among 508 (12%) patients known to have been hospitalized, 9% were aged ≥85 years, 36% were aged 65–84 years, 17% were aged 55–64 years, 18% were 45–54 years, and 20% were aged 20–44 years. Less than 1% of hospitalizations were among persons aged ≤19 years (Figure 2). The percentage of persons hospitalized increased with age, from 2%–3% among persons aged ≤19 years, to ≥31% among adults aged ≥85 years. (Table)."

So the percentage of people, in USA, that required hospital care, mainly due to acute dyspnea, with less than 65years is an astonishing 55% of all of them, more than half of all the cases. For people with less than 54 years they are 38% of all the cases, so very significant!

They continue:

"Among 121 patients known to have been admitted to an ICU, 7% of cases were reported among adults ≥85 years, 46% among adults aged 65–84 years, 36% among adults aged 45–64 years, and 12% among adults aged 20–44 years (Figure 2). No ICU admissions were reported among persons aged ≤19 years. Percentages of ICU admissions were lowest among adults aged 20–44 years (2%–4%) and highest among adults aged 75–84 years (11%–31%) (Table)."

So, the percentage of people in ICU's with less than 64 years is 48%, almost half of all the cases; and 12% between 20 and 44 years, so it is not very low below 44 years

The people in ICU's need mechanical intubation or EMCO or similar treatment, otherwise they'll die, so if the ICU's become overwhelmed a lot of people below 64 years old will die, that is for sure, as in 1918.

If you overwhelm the hospitals you will have the same medical care than in 1918 and probably with the same results, now North of Italy and some parts of Spain are approaching to this situation; I think in London and is some parts of USA will happens even more, thanks to BoJo and DJT

Here in Spain the authorities does not show the raw data with age and causes, but the news have filtered the name of people in the 40's or 30's that have died without pre-existing conditions, like two guardia civil of 37 and 38 years, and a nurse with 52, etc...and many many are in hospitals and ICU's, all of them with the infamous "cytokine storm" syndrome

Posted by: DFC | Mar 21 2020 10:50 utc | 484

Cytokine release syndrome.
This is something very few people understand.
"Ironically, in most cases, it is the strength of their immune response that can put a healthy person at risk for complications associated with the flu. While most of the time a strong immune system is key to keeping an infection in check, sometimes the body’s reaction to being infected with the flu presents the greatest danger to an otherwise healthy person."
CRS is a form of systemic inflammatory response syndrome and is an adverse effect of some drugs.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 21 2020 11:08 utc | 485

DFC 484

Thanks for putting that up. Gives a very clear picture to the disease this virus causes.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 21 2020 11:28 utc | 486

Posted by: kiwiklown | Mar 21 2020 10:30 utc | 482

The perfidy of it all was to then prepare a sneak attack on a weakened Russia using nukes! They actually made two, not one such nuking plan, the second one more devastating than the first.

Yes, the psychopaths had this on their minds. As Wally noted, bio-weapons were used in Korea as the nuke option was taken out of the hands of the insane.

Speaking of nukes. The US was not aware that Soviets had nukes in Cuba during the Cuban Missile Crisis. On the ground Soviets had the option to use them when they felt necessary without an OK from Moscow. The US side was unpleasantly surprised when after years they go together to open up their cards that they were holding then.

Previous meetings were held in Hawks Cay, Fla., and Cambridge, Mass., both in 1987, in Moscow in 1989 and in Antigua in 1990.

At the Moscow meeting, the Americans learned that they were mistaken. A Soviet general told them there were 20 warheads intended for use on medium-range Soviet missiles in Cuba, and another 20 en route. These missiles could reach southern and eastern United States, Mr. McNamara said.

Last week in Havana, the General's former deputy amended the information, saying that there were 36 of these warheads in Cuba at the time of the crisis, according to Mr. McNamara. More were on the way.

These warheads were not to be launched without the authority of Nikita S. Khrushchev, the Soviet leader.

But last week the Americans learned that there also were nine short-range nuclear-tipped missiles, each with explosive power equivalent of 6 to 12 kilotons of TNT, Mr. McNamara said. These missiles have a range of less than 90 miles, and could be used only against invading forces, and not the United States mainland.

"We were told that the Soviet commanders in Cuba had the authority to launch the nine tactical warheads without any authority from Moscow, against a U.S. invasion force," Mr. McNamara said.

I don't expect anything less in the current situation. We the little Proles have no clue what cards the Big Boys are playing and which ones they played. But if the Past is any predictor of the Future then I think everything is on the table depending on how a given party is cornered.

Posted by: Tom_LX | Mar 21 2020 11:33 utc | 487

C1ue 337
If you look at the world stats, ppl with the best health system and physicians (e.g. Germany, Switzerland, Singapore..) have ca 1% dead. Ppl with a good but messy healthcare and not so good physicians get 10 % (France, Italy, Spain...).
And still, really serious only for 80+ or associated pathology.
All in all I start to think that was panics people here is that it actually kills quickly rather than costing 1-2 years on heavy treatment, like cancer.

Posted by: Mina | Mar 21 2020 12:19 utc | 488

john Brewster,

I understand the point you are making about the Covid-19 panic. I'm no expert on the subject and can't point to any specific peer-reviewed journals that directly contradict what you're suggesting, but what do you say to the statistic shown in the Kaiama's post #390:

Italy 627 in one day.
Normal influenza season 187-241 per week.

Wouldn't you agree with his conclusion? "it's serious"

Posted by: Carciofi | Mar 21 2020 12:26 utc | 489

Of course not, this is not a US bioweapon ( sarc.)

‘The US and Riyadh try to spread the coronavirus in Yemen and Syria’

Posted by: H.Schmatz | Mar 21 2020 12:32 utc | 490


DFC has posted some stats for the US. A large section of those requiring hospital care are under 65. The number of survivors that suffer permanent lung damage is unknown. Perhaps most of those requiring intensive care.
Figures will change greatly without medical care and that will come down to not the standard of care a health service normally provides, but whether the government takes measures to keep confirmed case numbers down - prevent exponential spread.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 21 2020 12:33 utc | 491

Noirette 372
On that one you disappoint me! Varoufakis has explained repeatedly that the alternative is extreme right (i don't want to live under the Polish gov, the AfD crackpots, the Le Pen dynasty or the Flemish Vlaams Belang, do you?). It is not being pro EU to say EU countries (I mean the continent) should coordinate on a number of issues, that have to be determined by a larger population participation rather than by Eurocrats who decide from far and without accountability. Read his 'Adults in the room', it is good. I haven't read the others but if someone has a recommendation, please do.

Posted by: Mina | Mar 21 2020 12:46 utc | 492

@Posted by: DFC | Mar 21 2020 10:50 utc | 484

Triage for being included into ICU care has laready started in Madrid, yet not at other locations in Spain, bu the criteria is clear, lowing the age of no admission as the ammount of younger cases come in...that score would reach the line of 60 years...

Elder Spanish woman in Madrid owrking class neighborhood literally screaming as her husband was left out of ICU in favour of a 44 years old patient in Madrid. She does not blame the doctors, who, she states, have enough with having to take these horrible decissions, which, she believes, will end getting them either exhausted or directly mad after all this passes. She blames governments for lack of prevision and lack of international solidarity with respect to provision of ventilators to the most accutely affected countries...It is really heartbreaking hearing and seeing her, as she states his husband worked his whole life and has the right and deserves to live...

Posted by: H.Schmatz | Mar 21 2020 13:06 utc | 493

john Brewster,

Ok, I just read your post # 410 where you say "I'm more than willing..."

So far the rate of new infections and deaths in Italy continues to climb despite that country's response in what is effectively a state of martial law. The "martial law" response seems warranted, no?

Regarding the bailouts and currency debasement being talked about, I don't know where governments will get the money for either supply-side or demand-side strategies for economic recovery, however I agree with you that a rescue package that saves Wall street and the super rich will not go down well with the 99%.

Posted by: Carciofi | Mar 21 2020 13:11 utc | 494

Yesterday's death rate in Italy:387.Average age :80 years old.Youngest deceased 29.So what does this seem to implicate?Is it worth blocking all of the economy to find out that it's the same categories of people that die every year from the flu?

Heard also,in France,in 2011 there were 1 billion and a half of masks,none to find nowadays,where have they gone?

Posted by: willie | Mar 21 2020 13:13 utc | 495

Meawhile, it is being reported that still in Madrid, autonomous community most affected in Spain ( governed by far-right coalition ), private hospitals remain almost empty and missused ( at one of them only 2 patitents in ICU...) and that is giving place to intents on starting employment regulation expedients, while health authorities are asking for volunteers all around the country to come to Madrid and those at duty are doing shifts of 12 hours or more...

The governments of Madrid and Andalusia keep sanitary facilities closed in the midst of the coronavirus crisis

Unions and health workers ask the "popular" to use all possible resources to face this health crisis

Posted by: H.Schmatz | Mar 21 2020 13:17 utc | 496

Tom_LX | Mar 21 2020 11:33 utc | 487

Two comments.

Alperowitz "The Decision to Use the Atomic Bomb" quotes or relates Groves saying in March of '44 that "the bomb is for Russia". He said this at a private dinner, over alcohol, in a relaxed and true-speaking circumstance, to at least two senior bomb scientists up on the Mesa.

Americans were the first people to die from the bomb, as the Trinity Test down-winders were poisoned and began to abort, and get all the rest. The DoE uses contract geologists to track the shot-gun patterns of coruscating hot fallout particles from the open-air tests...but since there is hot stuff with clusters and zero effort to mitigate the ongoing poisoning and disease, one is forced to conclude that the people are being used as test subjects to this day. They don't keep the geologists too long, the work is divided up so no individual gets the Big Picture. Wally has spoken with Geologist at Truth of Consequences in New Mexico - that's where he got this.

The Plan to nuke Russia called for hundreds of bombs, 400+ I be dropped by airplanes, B-29's and the following types, B-36, B 46, B-52. But two Big Things changed the Strategy...

The Soviet bomb "Joe 1" was one.


The Soviet airforce wasted the B-29 in Korea... demonstrating that they would not be successful attempting to drop on Russia, or indeed USSR.

The Strategy has changed, not the goal.

Posted by: Walter | Mar 21 2020 13:23 utc | 497

Posted by: Mina | Mar 21 2020 12:19 utc | 488

The statistics depend on what is counted and tested.

In Italy, they testet by March 20 according to Wikipedia 206,886 to find 37,860 active cases with a death rate of 4,032 deaths. That would be more than 10 percent. My guess is that they mainly tested people coming to the hospital with pneumonia.

In Germany, people get tested by their doctors or by hospital - 100.000 in the last week alone - they already found 20.000 cases, the more they test and find cases, the lower the percentage of fatalities.

I would not get a test - no symptoms, don't know anybody with Corona, did not visit Italy or Austria nor France or China.
I am pretty sure I already survived the virus - it has been around in China since November, I live close to a central airport in Germany with lots of Chinese visitors and I travel to work in the airport line.

Posted by: somebody | Mar 21 2020 13:23 utc | 498

Meanwhile Ivanka Trump gets as much tests as she needs...

An uninsured American already recovered from the Covid-19 just received the bill that she must pay after receiving her treatment: $ 35,000.

Posted by: H.Schmatz | Mar 21 2020 13:26 utc | 499

It's started.

Update: we’re expanding our safety rules to include content that could place people at a higher risk of transmitting COVID-19. Now, we will require people to remove Tweets that include the following:

- Denial of expert guidance
- Encouragement to use fake or ineffective treatments, preventions, and diagnostic techniques
- Misleading content purporting to be from experts or authorities.

Posted by: Carciofi | Mar 21 2020 13:31 utc | 500

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