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False Claims About The Novel Coronavirus And How To Debunk Them
Today China reported zero new domestic cases of novel coronavirus infections. It has beaten the epidemic just as we predicted early on. Other countries with still expanding epidemics will have to adopt all the measures China has taken to also win the fight.
Our extensive reporting about the novel cornonavirus has attracted many new commentators to this site. Unfortunately some of these, as well as some of the regulars, continue to spread disinformation and myths about the current pandemic and its causes.
To keep some level of quality at this site requires an aggressive countering of such comments. But our capacity to do so is limited. We do delete comments that are nonsensical or have been debunked and we do block people who insist on posting or reposting nonsense. But there are now many more comments per day than we can read. We therefore have to ask other commentators to counter the bad false ones.
Here are some of the false claims that are made about the pandemic and the facts needed to debunk them.
Myth:
The novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 is a Chinese virus that comes from bats. It infected people because Chinese people eat bats.
Facts:
The source of the virus is actually not known. The patient number 1, the person who first carried the virus, has not been found. The Wuhan wet market where exotic animals are sold was not the source of the outbreak:
The paper, written by a large group of Chinese researchers from several institutions, offers details about the first 41 hospitalized patients who had confirmed infections with what has been dubbed 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV). In the earliest case, the patient became ill on 1 December 2019 and had no reported link to the seafood market, the authors report. “No epidemiological link was found between the first patient and later cases,” they state. Their data also show that, in total, 13 of the 41 cases had no link to the marketplace. “That’s a big number, 13, with no link,” says Daniel Lucey, an infectious disease specialist at Georgetown University.
While the novel corona virus might be one that was originally carried by bats it is unlikely to have jumped from a bat to a human. The older SARS virus, which is somewhat similar to the novel coronavirus, originated from bats but first spread to other animals before mutating from there into a form that infects humans.
The only place where bats are regularly used as food is the Pacific island Palau which is more or less a U.S. colony. Videos showing Chinese citizens eating fruit bat soup were actually filmed on that island.
Myth:
The virus is related to HIV, the virus that causes aids.
Facts:
Some Indian researchers found four genome sequences in the novel coronavirus that can also be found in the HIV virus. They self published their findings in a paper that was not peer reviewed. We discussed that paper in detail on February 1 in our second post on the virus and we strongly expressed our doubt about its veracity. A few days later the paper was retracted by its authors after other scientists had pointed out that the lengths of each of the four sequences they had compared were way too small to be of statistical significance.
Myth:
Asian people are genetically more receptive for the novel coronavirus.
Fact:
The virus enters human cells by binding to the ACE-2 receptor on the cells hull. There were assertions that people in Asia have more ACE-2 receptors than people elsewhere. But detailed studies of various genome sequence databases have found no statistical basis for such claims. People of Asian, Caucasian or African heritage all have the same numbers of ACE-2 building elements and receptors. The virus will effect them equally.
Myth:
The virus originated from a military weapon research laboratory.
Facts:
There is zero evidence that the virus is from a Chinese or U.S. or other (weapon) laboratory and the claim actually makes no sense. The genome of the virus consists of more then 23,000 'letters'. It is significantly different than the genome of other known viruses. (Added:) It is not lab made:
We offer a perspective on the notable features of the SARS-CoV-2 genome and discuss scenarios by which they could have arisen. Our analyses clearly show that SARS-CoV-2 is not a laboratory construct or a purposefully manipulated virus.
To artificially create such a complex entity and to test all its variants would have been a program of the size of the Manhattan project and would have cost billions.
Weapon researchers are sane people with a limited budget. They look for methods to defeat an enemy. A virus that affects all humans indiscriminately but kills mostly very old ones would have no military value.
Myth:
Moon of Alabama has downplayed the danger of the virus.
Facts:
Our first post on the issue was headlined The Coronavirus – No Need To Panic. It discussed the infectiousness and fatality rate of the novel coronavirus disease in comparison to other virus caused diseases. We pointed out that it is less infectious and less deadly than for example SARS but never said that it is not dangerous at all. In fact the numbers we pointed out said the opposite.
The piece simple put the current epidemic into perspective. We have since posted a total of 15 detailed pieces on the pandemic. To claim that this is a downplaying of the issue is nonsensical.
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Previous Moon of Alabama posts on the issue:
An Illustrative Sketch> (which b may or may not permit. if not then apologies in advance)
Wally was sippin’ a brew down at the Dewdrop Inn and watchin’ his pals Dirty John , Wrongway, and Half-Sack hustle a stranger at Poker… Sally the doe-eyed blond bar-girl slipped into the back, “probably to snort a line of crank”, Wally thought.
The game went on and things got tense. The Stranger was winning, a lot. Wally spied that the back door was unobstructed…and thought “good, now let’s see the game”.
There musta been a thousand bucks on the table when the Stranger called with a winning hand.
Wrongway pulled his .38 – “let’s see those cards of yours, friend”.
Stranger kicked over the table and dove out the open front doors, money and cards went everywhere, Wrongway’s cannon went off and blew a hole in the mirror by the stuffed two-headed horse. Everybody’s ears wuz ringing and the place wus filled with gun-smoke.
Unfortunately for the Stranger, Deputy Curtis Hicks was right outside and collared the Stranger…who had practically tackled him.
“Is y’all finished shootin’?,” Deputy Curtis shouted into the smoky Dewdrop, as he snapped the cuffs on the Stranger. (Curtis usually comes by to collect contributions on Thursdays, and it was Thursday)
“Yeah – is that you Curtis?” (Wrongway passed his gun to Wally, who slipped it into the opaque and filthy dishwater filling the sink behind the bar).
Curtis came in, shoving the cuffed Stranger before him, sat him down, and the Stranger began to whine about the cash. Curtis shut his mouth for him with a tap, and the Stranger spit out a bloody tooth through a fat lip. The fellas picked up the money and the cards and set up the furniture, Sally came back and slipped behind the bar, ignoring us, sniffing now and then with her doe-eyes bigger, wider, than before.
At length everybody figured it out. Seems the Stranger’s cards were marked. He knew it.
Talkin’ funny with a little bit of blood drippin’ the Stranger told us why he kicked over the table – “I wus in a zuswang” he said.
“What’s that?” asked Wrongway.
“You don’t play chess, Ah reckon”, replied Stranger. “It’s when you can’t go back and you can’t go forward – yer screwed either way”.
“Whadda ya do then?” Curtis wanted to know, tapping the guy with his billy.
Half-Sack and Sally slipped out back, for some reason, but at the back door she turned her head, shook her bangs, and called out loudly answering the question for the Stranger…”That’s when you kick over the phuckin’ table! Curtis, yer an idiot!”. Half-Sack had ‘hold of Sally’s ass as the door slammed.
Wally reached ’round an’ drew a re-fill from the tap.
We all chipped in, well, not Half-Sack, but the rest of us chipped in, and Curtis took the guy to the Greyhound Station and bought him a ticket to Laramie, 100 miles away. He left with the hundred bucks we gave him.
“Ah always leave a fella a way to git out, git away…it’s better. That’s what the Sheriff sez”, remarked Curtis the following Thursday foldin’ his $20 contribution as he finished his brew.
…………..
The CV19 is the upset table. The Imperial zuswang is over.
Whether somebody kicked over a slop-bucket or it came from Mars.
Crosstalk to-day pointed out that the monopolar world is gone.
Posted by: Walter | Mar 20 2020 11:12 utc | 326
Wow, a lot less meat vs. crap on MoA comments than typical.
Anyway, some facts to consider:
1) The median age in Italy is 45.5 – it is the 6th oldest nation in the world.
Japan #2, Germany #3, Greece #6, Slovenia #7, Hong Kong #9
2) The median age in the US is 38.1 – #61
3) I can’t find data on the median age in the US in 1918, but life expectancy was 36.6 and 42.2, for males/females respectively (Life expectancy today is 76-77 in the US). Safe to say median age was in the 20s, and likely lower 20s to boot. The earliest mention I can find is that the median age in the US was 29.5 in 1960 vs. a life expectancy of 69.8.
4) Random note: India median age: 28.1; Africa average age: 18. This is why nCOV doesn’t seem to matter there – those countries are really, really young although there certainly are a few old people around, and some of them are dying.
Thus all the comparison with 1918 flu are bullshit. The 1918 flu killed a hell of a lot more people – and almost everyone was young then – than nCOV can even theoretically. The 1918 flu was much more like SARS-1 only with nCOV type transmission capability.
All these conspiracy theories make the assumption that a “natural” flu can’t be that bad – that is flat out wrong.
To make a really bad disease, you have to test – and you have to test en mass. Where are the mass graves of test subjects? Where are the thousands to tens of thousands of missing people? The hundreds to thousands of beds, doctors and technicians needed to examine and care for test subjects? Note this excludes the difficulty of actually designing said disease.
It isn’t enough to stick part A onto virus B to make it “better”, viruses are notoriously unstable. nCOV in particular is a single strand RNA virus – it has very little capability to error correct (that’s why more advanced forms of life have double stranded DNA). As I’ve mentioned before – viral replication is extremely inefficient. A single virus-infected cell will spew out thousands of virii (many individual virus particles), but maybe 10 will actually be viable because the single strand replication process is so crappy. This is precisely like a nuclear fission reaction: one neutron/virus can cause a chain reaction because it creates more neutrons/virii. (for the record, a uranium fission reaction is started by one neutron breaking up a uranium atom, which releases 3 neutrons. So 10 virii per cell is actually more efficient than nuclear fission)
Designing a virus that can 1) penetrate cells effectively 2) remain viable for extended periods of time 3) is spread efficiently 4) is stable enough to keep the spread/lethality/targeting characteristics 5) is able to be deadly – is really, really, really difficult.
Then let’s look at the nCOV disease path:
1) virusemia
2) viral and bacterial pneumonia
3) edema
4) sepsis
This is really complicated. nCOV is only the primary driver in 1) – the initial infection – largely targeting the respiratory tract despite virii being present in blood. Note again the targeting – this is non-trivial to design, and this stage is just like a normal flu.
And again – morons keep talking about “Asians being vulnerable” – Italy, Spain and Iran are showing this to be the idiocy that it is.
The damage nCOV does is sufficient that in some cases – around 20% – infected people get stage 2: where bacteria as well as the original virus (and some new ones) cause pneumonia – because nCOV causes enough damage that it opens the door for everything else. The ensuing edema and sepsis are logical outcomes from 2).
So to put some of these “miracle cures” into perspective:
If you are in stage 2) – you will likely lose some lung capacity permanently. Whether chloroquine or whatever helps – if so, great but the history of miracle cures is that they don’t stand up over time and close examination.
Anti-virals – remdesivir or whatever – won’t matter unless you take it in stage 1. Are there enough of these to pre-treat everyone? I very much doubt it, even if they’re affordable (remdesivir is not).
Vitamin C therapy: If you’re in sepsis, you’re already screwed. Even if there was some real reduction of mortality – it is incremental at best. You’re going to lose lung function, you’re going to already have been in the hospital for some time, and you’re going to be in the hospital for some time. For most Americans, just the duration of hospital stay is enough to destroy them economically – even ignoring the health bit.
Sadly, the primary treatment for nCOV is: lockdowns to reduce spread, wash hands frequently. That’s it.
The economic impact of lockdowns – particularly in the US – is enormous.
I looked at the US Bureau of Labor Statistics to get a rough idea.
Average household spending is: $53,708
Other transportation: $712
Eating out: $3365
Alcohol: $558
Entertainment: $3203
Other: $2214
While some of this spend will transfer over – it is likely a small fraction. A takeout meal or delivery meal vs. a restaurant or bar visit – the takeout is going to be a lot less.
The above categories, excluding Other:, constitute 14.6% of average household spending. If overall spend in these categories drops 2/3rds, that’s 10% spending reduction.
The problem is that the US GDP is 70% consumer spending. China’s, in comparison, is 38.7%.
10% reduction in household spending = at least 7% GDP reduction. I say at least 7% because GDP is every dollar doing anything – and entire value chains are being disrupted.
For example: one conference is cancelled due to nCOV. airlines cancel flights so pilots, stewardesses, mechanics, fuel suppliers, food suppliers, baggage handlers etc all lose income. Hotels, Airbnb, restaurants and bars around the convention center lose bookings. Convention staff itself, event staff at exhibitor companies, suppliers of giveaways, convention center owner/operator also lose business. Uber/Lyft/taxi lose passengers. The customers of these 1st order businesses affected jobs in turn lose business, which in turn affects their suppliers – rippling all the way down.
One of the reasons why 1st world economy GDPs are so much larger is precisely this interwoven net of value chains; in contrast a really poor, subsistence farming country has really flat and short value chains.
What’s the impact of falling GDP? well, Russia’s GDP fell in half from 1989 to 1998 – a bit under 5% a year. Russia’s life expectancy dropped from 69.2 to 66.9.
To put this in perspective: 70K additional deaths per year due to opiates dropped US life expectancy by 0.3 from 2014 to 2017.
Russia has a smaller population, but it would take around 700K extra deaths in Russia to account for their past life expectancy fall, with about 1 million deaths for the round trip from 69.2 down to 66.9 and back again.
So 5% GDP annual losses = 0.05% deaths in population.
Just contrasting the nCOV mortality rates vs. deaths due to economic despair/poverty – lockdowns so seem to be a net win regardless. Nonetheless, a proper economic response could alleviate this, but it seems highly unlikely in the US since the equivalent losses due to health care profiteering hasn’t seemed to matter.
Posted by: c1ue | Mar 20 2020 12:51 utc | 337
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