Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
March 11, 2020

Coronavirus - The Hidden Cases - Why We Must Shut Everything Down And Do It Now

The powers that be in our 'western' societies have decided to do nothing significant against the onslaught the novel coronavirus SARS-Cov-2 is now causing.

There will not even be an attempt to do like China or South Korea which have thrown all resources at stopping the spread of the virus while it was still possible. The 'west' now seem to be beyond that point.

The British Prime Minister Boris Johnson floated the idea to "take it on the chin" -  i.e. to do nothing to soften the blow the epidemic will cause. Chancellor Angela Merkel in Germany told her parliamentary group that 60-70% of all Germans will catch the virus. Most of them will fall ill with the Covid-19 disease the virus causes. At a 1% death rate this means that more than 500.000 Germans will die from it. Merkel did not say how she would try to prevent that. So far little was done by her administration to stop a further public spreading of the disease.

The Donald Trump administration has done its best to prevent an early detection of the outbreak in Washington State and likely also elsewhere:

As luck would have it, Dr. Chu had a way to monitor the region. For months, as part of a research project into the flu, she and a team of researchers had been collecting nasal swabs from residents experiencing symptoms throughout the Puget Sound region.

To repurpose the tests for monitoring the coronavirus, they would need the support of state and federal officials. But nearly everywhere Dr. Chu turned, officials repeatedly rejected the idea, interviews and emails show, even as weeks crawled by and outbreaks emerged in countries outside of China, where the infection began.

By Feb. 25, Dr. Chu and her colleagues could not bear to wait any longer. They began performing coronavirus tests, without government approval.

What came back confirmed their worst fear. They quickly had a positive test from a local teenager with no recent travel history. The coronavirus had already established itself on American soil without anybody realizing it.

The CDC and the FDA would not have that:

The message from the federal government was blunt. “What they said on that phone call very clearly was cease and desist to Helen Chu,” Dr. Lindquist [the state epidemiologist in Washington] remembered. “Stop testing.”

Our dear leaders are following the four stage strategy (vid):

In stage one we say "Nothing is going to happen".
Stage two we say something may be going to happen but we should do nothing about it.
Stage three: We say maybe we should do something about it but there is nothing we can do.
Stage four: We say maybe there was something that could have been done but it is too late now.

Yascha Mounk follows my argument and gives a reasonable advice on what we can do to make this as pandemic as survivable as possible. Shut everything down that can be shut down. Increase social distance as much as possible. Avoid all live social contacts wherever possible. Do it NOW!

One Tomas Pueyo explains in detail why we must do this immediately. (I checked his numbers and find no faults with them.)

Wuhan city in China was shut down on January 23. Twelve days later, on February 4, the newly confirmed cases in Wuhan reached their peak and declined from there. This gives us the time delay from an infection to become a diagnosed and counted case as the shutdown increased the social distance and lowered the number of new infections.

Each newly infected person itself infected two or three other persons. The growth rate was thereby exponential until they shut the city down. Had the city not been shut down on January 23 the numbers beyond February 4 would have gone higher and higher. That will happen in our cities and countries as our authorities are unwilling or unable to act as early and as decisively as the Chinese authorities did.

Source: Tomas Pueyo - bigger - full


This is one of the most important charts.

It shows in orange histograms the daily official number of cases in the Hubei province: How many people were diagnosed that day.

The grey histograms show the true daily coronavirus cases. Crucially, these weren’t know at the time. We can only figure them out looking backwards.

What this means is that the orange histograms show you what authorities knew, and the grey ones what was really happening.

On January 21st, the number of new diagnosed cases (orange) is exploding: there are around 100 new cases. In reality, there were 1,500 new cases that day, growing exponentially. But the authorities didn’t know that. What they knew was that suddenly there were 100 new cases of this new illness.

Two days later, authorities shut down Wuhan. At that point, the number of diagnosed daily new cases was ~400. Note that number: they made a decision to close the city with just 400 new cases in a day. In reality, there were 2,500 new cases that day, but they didn’t know that.

This means that we must all act now because today the numbers in Washington state and elsewhere are already exploding even though we do not know yet how high they really are. Those people who do get infected today will only become official cases twelve or more days from now when they will (hopefully) be diagnosed and counted.

The key thing to do now is 'social distancing'. As our governments do not act decisively to achieve that it is our personal responsibility to do that ourselves. Everyone must do this to the best of their abilities.

These numbers are not fantasies but today's reality:

Washington State is the US’s Wuhan. The number of cases there is growing exponentially.
Spain has very similar numbers as France (1,200 cases vs. 1,400, and both have 30 deaths). That means the same rules are valid: Spain has probably upwards of 20k true cases already.

In the Comunidad de Madrid region, with 600 official cases and 17 deaths, the true number of cases is likely between 10,000 and 60,000.

If you read these data and tell yourself: “Impossible, this can’t be true”, just think this: With this number of cases, Wuhan was already in lockdown.

China has defeated the epidemic in Wuhan. A few cases leaked and the effects now move into our societies. But our dear leaders are throwing the Chinese victory out of the window by not replicating early and decisively what the Chinese did. Many of us will have to pay for this.

Communists will shut down a city to prevent a deadly epidemic from going exponential. Our neo-liberal leaders only started to care when the Dow Jones went down. Don't expect them to call for a shutdown as that will cost their donor's some money. As mostly elderly people will die they are probably calculating how much money the pension funds will save.

Not shutting everything down guarantees that our health care systems will get overwhelmed. This will increase the death rate of the disease.

Tomas Pueyo as well as Yascha Munck mention the 1918 influenza pandemic and point out how much difference a shutdown made at that time:

As the disease was spreading, Wilmer Krusen, Philadelphia’s health commissioner, allowed a huge parade to take place on September 28; some 200,000 people marched. In the following days and weeks, the bodies piled up in the city’s morgues. By the end of the season, 12,000 residents had died.

In St. Louis, a public-health commissioner named Max Starkloff decided to shut the city down. Ignoring the objections of influential businessmen, he closed the city’s schools, bars, cinemas, and sporting events. Thanks to his bold and unpopular actions, the per capita fatality rate in St. Louis was half that of Philadelphia. (In total, roughly 1,700 people died from influenza in St Louis.)

Good luck to all of us.

Previous Moon of Alabama posts on the issue:

Posted by b on March 11, 2020 at 16:19 UTC | Permalink

« previous page | next page »

COVID-19 is contagious up to 37 days post infection.


For survivors, the median duration of viral shedding was 20·0 days (IQR 17·0–24·0) from illness onset, but the virus was continuously detectable until death in non-survivors (table 2; figure 1). The shortest observed duration of viral shedding among survivors was 8 days, whereas the longest was 37 days. Among 29 patients who received lopinavir/ritonavir and were discharged, the median time from illness onset to initiation of antiviral treatment was 14·0 days (IQR 10·0–17·0) and the median duration of viral shedding was 22·0 days (18·0–24·0). The median duration of viral shedding was 19·0 days (17·0–22·0) in patients with severe disease status and 24·0 days (22·0–30·0) in patients with critical disease status.

Posted by: Seer | Mar 12 2020 20:29 utc | 301

@268 John

Thank you for the link, John:)

Posted by: SharonM | Mar 12 2020 20:34 utc | 302

ARN: As of 1630 EST the Times has opened up some of its articles to the public. The Post has not yet done that but I expect it will.

Posted by: Bart Hansen | Mar 12 2020 20:39 utc | 303

@ Posted by: D | Mar 12 2020 20:29 utc | 303

The problem with the COVID-19 is not its lethality per se, but its contagiousness. Being of pandemic status, even at 3% death rate, it could kill millions on the denominator alone. If it overwhelms a national healthcare system, then the death rate increases even more.

Posted by: vk | Mar 12 2020 20:41 utc | 304

@ 267 marcos.. thanks for the moment of encouragement...

@ 292 paul b.. thanks paul..

@ 303 d.. thanks for your first hand personal perspective.. it seems very contagious, as vk notes.. that is a problem and the fact people don't seem to know they have it for a time period - that is also a problem as i see it..

more trolls on this thread then usual...

Posted by: james | Mar 12 2020 20:48 utc | 305

My comment above was no joke. I have just had that shit for the last two weeks.
So, to describe it, here we go

Shortness of breath that you could attribute to almost anything else, like just being unfit

A fucking weird nasal blockage , try sleeping on your back

Flu like symptoms but no muscle pains or real fever: let me explain: the fever is a strange one. Twisted weird thoughts but no real hallucinations or anything like malaria... Way more gentle.
Anybody out there who has ever had tickbite fever will know what I'm talking about..?
So. I really can't imagine anybody actually dying from this unless they are old and weak as fuck. But it is rather unpleasant to experience.

Posted by: D | Mar 12 2020 20:50 utc | 306

vk @ 307

"If it overwhelms a national healthcare system, then the death rate increases even more."

Yes, people with medical conditions NOT related to COVID-19 can become victims because they will fail to be treated due to being turned away because of over-capacity. The net numbers on deaths are going to be more than just from COVID-19.

Posted by: Seer | Mar 12 2020 20:51 utc | 307

Here in the U.K. the number of virus cases are escalating.
A govenment expert interviewed on bbc radio, suggested there may be 10,000 undiagnosed cases here !
Ireland has closed its schools, the British govenment considered this and rejected it on the grounds that emergency staff at hospitals ect would be forced to stay home looking after their children !
So why not make schools optional ?
This would drastically reduce the number attending school compensating for the enevitable staff shortages. A lot of parents would be happy not to have their home contaminated from a school, it would also greatly reduce the overall contamination country wide.
They could do this today ‘ but oh no Boris tells us we must get used to this virus and except the enevitable loss of life in all our family’s !!!
Come on guys there it is, Large scale murder in plain sight !
Remember Grenfail tower !!!

Posted by: Mark2 | Mar 12 2020 20:51 utc | 308

thanks D...

Posted by: james | Mar 12 2020 20:52 utc | 309

Scary how closely other nations follow the infection/rate of Italy,

We must be prepared for what happen in China, Italy could happen literally anywhere.

Posted by: Zanon | Mar 12 2020 21:00 utc | 310

Michael Osterholm on Joe Rogan, talking about coronavirus: JRE w/ Michael Osterholm

1) nCOV is going to be a multi-month long thing.
2) incubation time is 4 days. He's saying primary transmission is air/aerosols - different from what China is saying (fluids)
3) Doubling time is therefore as low as 4 days. [So we'll see if there are 3000-5000 cases by the weekend]
4) Gloves and masks don't prevent infection
5) nCOV is not a bioweapon
6) Hot air doesn't do diddly - i.e. saunas won't disinfect you
7) nCOV carriers infectious before symptoms show
8) No evidence, despite studies, that vitamins, probiotics etc etc do *anything* to reduce infection or improve immunity, if you're healthy to start with. Exception below but still doesn't prove out in studies And there have been many studies.
9) Surgical masks don't do squat. N95 only. But regular people using them is bad - because it means the health care workers won't have enough.
10) Serious aches and pains from flu - for more than several days (more than 2) - go see a doctor immediately. Treatment at this stage will greatly reduce likelihood of serious complications occurring. Virus damage to lungs will often cause secondary bacterial infection - which is causes pneumonia.
11) probiotics will give a very short term boost, but it goes away very quickly. The normal gut bacteria come back really fast, even if you keep retaking probiotics - this is why the studies don't show either short or long term benefit from probiotics. But if you're really concerned about it and/or have actual bad intestinal microflora - do a fecal transplant.
12) Lyme disease likely from Upper Midwest. In the FDR era, there was a major deer dieoff in the Northeast; a lot of Midwest deer were trapped and relocated to the Northeast. So the deer (and their ticks) in those areas are likely descended from the Upper Midwest. A study involving deer hunters looked at ticks on deer right when loaded on vehicles, then again after the hunters arrive home. Basically, all the ticks were falling off - and there would be increases in Lyme infections along the highways...
13) chronic Lyme disease seems to not be from the disease, but from the immune response. Or in other words, even if the Lyme bacteria is gone, the immune system is still (over)reacting.

Posted by: c1ue | Mar 12 2020 21:02 utc | 311

i posted that vid right when it came out.. i thought it was pretty good too c1ue...

Posted by: james | Mar 12 2020 21:03 utc | 312

@Paul Bogdanovich #292
You may be a statistician, but you apparently don't seem to understand the difference between an overwhelmed health care system and a drawn out nCOV population spread.
The difference isn't 400K vs. 500K Americans; Wuhan mortality is 5x to 10x that of the rest of China.
Secondly, even a statistician should understand that the real world isn't black and white - people *are* going to react to nCOV. The economy *will* be affected.

It is not at all clear to me that simply "letting nature take its course" is either unavoidable or a better alternative.

Posted by: c1ue | Mar 12 2020 21:07 utc | 313

Why the Defender Europe 20 exercises are not suspended when every other crowded activity is being, after Trump has suspended flights from Europe?

Posted by: H.Schmatz | Mar 12 2020 21:26 utc | 314

With proper help from the healthcare pros at my county hospital I beat lung cancer and the RSV that put me on life support for 2 weeks, twice on a ventilator. I survived the flu type N a month ago. I provide care for my 93 year old mother and am her only means to survive, plus I provided care twice for my daughter when she was ill after giving birth and simultaneously cared for my grandchildren. And these are only the people WITHIN my family who I, with the help of my virtuous husband give unpaid care to! I worked hard my whole life starting at age 14, I have dedicated what is left of it to educating my species about the absolute crucial vital necessity to pick up the tool called justice - economic fairpay justice - and use it to strike the root cause of all our greatest threats. I have for decades been warning that we are in a globalocal emergency - AND I have offered the way out of it that no one else has offered! I spend time almost every single day campaigning and educating for the solution to all our most enormous problems. Many days I spend many hours on this.

Paul Bog, YOU who were willing to kill on command in the Marines, YOU go die with dignity if you want to.

ME, I LIVE with dignity befitting a human being - and I most certainly earned and deserve proper healthcare in a country that is the richest ever known on a planet that has never been richer!

Your comments here have been utterly despicable.

Posted by: Phryne's frock | Mar 12 2020 21:33 utc | 315

@ karlof1 | Mar 12 2020 20:02 utc | 296 "USA Become a Moral Nation".

That sounds interesting Dr K. My Quaker cussidness and oddball-ness abides yet, so I would moot the examination of assumptions.

In particular "nation"... I expect the deeper question, since all nations seem to have morality as part of their definition itself, the deeper question is can the USA become a nation at all.

My bet is that it's always been a divide (natios or classes) to rule forward operating base of conquest, with some pretty parts too.

Now that this modus seems to fail, I wonder how many nations will emerge in North America, and wonder too how that might occur.

Please, what is the Franklin Reality Model? Wally worked on a metaphysics of conflict up on the mountain...there is one and it's nice, but he lost interest after that. Models are neat.

Posted by: Walter | Mar 12 2020 21:40 utc | 316

To be honest B this is the first time where you sound like the officials you always bash. You said corona is a hyped virus a couple of days back which is what those officials also thought of. You also instantly jump to the conclusion that China beaten the virus when this can't be said until we see a good amount of time passing. Phase 2 can easily trigger again in China if their officials decide to resume daily life again. You are being a bit too jumpy here.

Posted by: epicfox | Mar 12 2020 21:47 utc | 317

Whatever the professionals say I can't help the feeling that by avoiding exposure to this virus we are making ourselves more vulnerable to the next ones in the long term.
I also can't help another feeling, that, whether well meaning or not, the medical profession, who still can only guess at the ultimate means of destroying or protecting against all viral illness, will risk the above long term effects against the short term benefit of finding out whether a comprehensive social isolation program will make this particular virus more manageable.
We have had 1984 and Brave New World, now read "The Machine Stops" by E.M. Forster, where everyone lives in individual cells and face to face contact is at a minimum.

Posted by: Ben McDonnell | Mar 12 2020 21:48 utc | 318

Zanon | Mar 12 2020 10:56 utc | 202

". . .Trump will end up getting stronger in the election by actually doing something against the spread of the virus."

The ignorance, inactivity, misinformation and stupidity with which the current federal administration has non-responded to the threat, dooms us to at least two, perhaps three or more years of wildly spreading (and re-spreading) plague.

China took massive, immediate, intelligent action, and went from an initial explosion in the number of cases, to a reduction in the number of new cases, in less than  three months.

The US, as I mentioned above, is looking at as much as three years . . .

Posted by: AntiSpin | Mar 12 2020 22:05 utc | 319

james | Mar 12 2020 20:52 utc | 312

Yea mate it really isn't that bad, compared to a lot of weird and wonderful diseases we have here. People go about their business without worrying about flu. Can you only imagine what would happen if the mozzies here hit the northern hemisphere? Fuck it would be a massacre.
Although Im pretty sure the CIA or whoever started this shit have plans for exactly that... "African Coronovirus Ebola Flu" or some shit.

Look, just sit tight up there in Canada, you"ll be fine.

And remember: you never know whats gonna kill you next:}

Posted by: D | Mar 12 2020 22:07 utc | 320


The Paul character has clarified its position and it seems my initial take was correct.
Advocates doing nothing, any attempts to mitigate slow the spread ect it views as nothing more than cowardice.
No wonder US loses all its wars with these types running around playing soldiers.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 12 2020 22:17 utc | 321

karlof1, the ceaseless drift of wealth from its rightful earner-owners to the freebie-getters happens with or WITHOUT human agency. We may well have a morals problem, but worse yet is our epic failure to understand the un-justice consequences of legal thefts. We'd still have legal theft occurring in virtually every transaction even if no one was TRYING to rob the other party. This is a key point. What we most need to shut down now and for forever is the idea to allow unlimited fortunes on a planet where nature has limited the amount of work that any human being can contribute by their own work.

Gotta go. Everyone, I wish you well.

Posted by: Phryne's frock | Mar 12 2020 22:21 utc | 322

No, we ultimately lose the wars because the political dynamics change and people realize that the war wasn't worth fighting in the first place. In my view they almost never are. But, while the war is going on we kill these people, whomever they are, 50 or 100 to one. Or at least we did when I was in.

Posted by: Paul Bogdanich | Mar 12 2020 22:26 utc | 323

dltravers | Mar 11 2020 17:57 utc | 31

I thought this was interesting.

Posted by: foolisholdman | Mar 12 2020 22:31 utc | 324

@ Posted by: Paul Bogdanich | Mar 12 2020 19:44 utc | 292

So you are a marine & statitician, well

We can try to make a model of the results of your proposal of Business As Usual (BAU) in this pandemic. if I have understand your proposal, you want to continue the life as before the pandemic. Well we can start using the statistics of this article:

So, in place las Hubei province (China), even with draconian containment/lockdown, it was late, they suffered the overwhelming of the hospital, even if they built two brand new with many thousands of beds in just 10-14 days and sent 40.000 physicians to the province from all China, all of this was not enough and they end up with a fatality rate of 4% in Hubei. The overwhelming of the hospital in Italy now is even worse than in Hubei and the hospital staff are deciding now, in real time, who will live and who will die because they do not have enough capacity in the ICU's, respirators, the fatality rate in Italy is in the range of 6,7% and growing

Now think in the USA, what you propose (no containment) easily will means that around 70% of the US population will be infected; but USA has very low number of hospital beds per cápita (lower rates in the developed world), for civilian purpose, may be in Bethesda there are high spare capacity waiting for the usual wars in the ME...Also in the USA there is a huge obese and diabetic population, etc...So, we could have, without containment (this virus has a R0 in the range of 6!) around 231 million people infected in the USA in few months; we do know that around 13,8% of all of them would neede severe hospitalzation, that means we would need to care in hospital around 31,9 million people, that means the health care system is doomed from the very beginning (way before those numbers), that is the reason to try to contain early the epidemic, because IT IS MUCH MORE DANGEROUS THAN A NORMAL FLU.

So you have detroyed all the health system of the country in some weeks, but still you have people with heart attacks, cancer that need to be operated/treated, traffic accidents, labor accidents, dialisis, diabetic complications, embolia, ictus, etc...but the health care system is destroyed, and you are in the midst of a pandemic with a health care system similar to that of 1750... Very good.

With all in mind we can expect "only" a 4% fatality rate, like Hubei where the brutal containment was imposed not too late, but OK we will asume this "optimistic" number is OK; then we would have a number of deaths in all the country of around 231 x 0,04 = 9,24 million deaths, and then you need to add the additional deaths for other causes due to the complete meltdown of the hospitals and health care failities, the number of deaths could be in the range of 10 - 12 million people, the majority old people, but also many of them not so old...

Is this your proposal for the country?

This is not an "stoic" approach, this is criminal

Posted by: DFC | Mar 12 2020 22:38 utc | 325

The Tory government in the UK is heavily influenced by fascist ideologues. The Tories always have been. The current lot, running hog wild while the Blairites and the Israeli Embassy purge the Labour Party of socialists, are unusually vicious.

Posted by: bevin | Mar 12 2020 23:00 utc | 326

Walter @319--

It's a psychiatric model developed in 1962 and now marketed as a tool to align beliefs with behavior and positive outcomes. As with all models, it's imperfect. Perhaps when we meet and have a brew, I'll tell you how it entered my world. In short, behavior reflects beliefs for otherwise you wouldn't have behaved as you did. I intend to apply that to the Outlaw US Empire's behavior to discern its actual beliefs, not what it says it believes--The Narrative. Here's a link.

Your "normal nation" point is yet another of those where to start problems. In order for the point to be seen and acted upon means lots of prior knowledge is required, which for most needs to be supplied.

Posted by: karlof1 | Mar 12 2020 23:01 utc | 327

Vk talks about the concern being the infectiousness of the virus. Well in hubei only 1/1000 people were confirmed infected. Given the first infection was likely in November and hubei was not licked down until mid January, that doesn't sound like much. In Italy only 1/6000 have been infected. Mortality is high because Italy has one of the oldest populations and many elderly that are more seriously affected are being denied care

As for the lethality, consider this. Dr. Jeremy Samuel Faust, an emergency physician at Brigham and Women’s Hospital and an instructor at Harvard Medical School, has written:

“The public is behaving as if this epidemic is the next Spanish flu, which is frankly understandable given that initial reports have staked COVID-19 mortality at about 2–3 percent, quite similar to the 1918 pandemic that killed tens of millions of people.

Allow me to be the bearer of good news. These frightening numbers are unlikely to hold. The true case fatality rate, known as CFR, of this virus is likely to be far lower than current reports suggest. Even some lower estimates, such as the 1 percent death rate recently mentioned by the directors of the National Institutes of Health and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, likely substantially overstate the case.

We shouldn’t be surprised that the numbers are inflated. In past epidemics, initial CFRs were floridly exaggerated. For example, in the 2009 H1N1 pandemic some early estimates were 10 times greater than the eventual CFR, of 1.28 percent. Epidemiologists think and quibble in terms of numerators and denominators—which patients were included when fractional estimates were calculated, which weren’t, were those decisions valid—and the results change a lot as a result. We are already seeing this. In the early days of the crisis in Wuhan, China, the CFR was more than 4 percent. As the virus spread to other parts of Hubei, the number fell to 2 percent. As it spread through China, the reported CFR dropped further, to 0.2 to 0.4 percent. As testing begins to include more asymptomatic and mild cases, more realistic numbers are starting to surface.

Here’s the problem with looking at mortality numbers in a general setting: In China, 9 million people die per year, which comes out to 25,000 people every single day, or around 1.5 million people over the past two months alone. A significant fraction of these deaths results from diseases like emphysema/COPD, lower respiratory infections, and cancers of the lung and airway whose symptoms are clinically indistinguishable from the nonspecific symptoms seen in severe COVID-19 cases. And, perhaps unsurprisingly, the death rate from COVID-19 in China spiked precisely among the same age groups in which these chronic diseases first become common. During the peak of the outbreak in China in January and early February, around 25 patients per day were dying with SARS-CoV-2. Most were older patients in whom the chronic diseases listed above are prevalent. Most deaths occurred in Hubei province, an area in which lung cancer and emphysema/COPD are significantly higher than national averages in China, a country where half of all men smoke. How were doctors supposed to sort out which of those 25 out of 25,000 daily deaths were solely due to coronavirus, and which were more complicated? What we need to know is how many excess deaths this virus causes.

Posted by: Pft | Mar 12 2020 23:01 utc | 328


Exactly. I don’t know why people keep proposing these complicated, sinister theories. Another person on this site, linked to a PDF of an article from 2015 that showed researchers (the head in fact) of the lab in Wuhan was working on ‘chimeric’ coronaviruses with researchers in North Carolina, which sound extraordinarily similar to Covid-19. These genetically-modified organisms were recognized as dangerous. I don’t think there was anything ‘evil’ about this research ... looking for way to combat pathogens that ‘might’ arise. But, you had better know exactly what you are doing if you want to work with such things. An accidental release from a lab, working on these types of viruses!, a short distance from the epicenter of the outbreak is by far the most likely cause. China has been hurt tremendously by this, and I expect some drastic measures will be taken, perhaps curtailing this research completely, or at least putting in even more extraordinary controls.

Posted by: SteveK9 | Mar 12 2020 23:13 utc | 329

To DFC 328.

The Chinese did an epidemiological characterization with n =44,672 severely ill, confirmed COVID-19 patients. Death rate for all ages was 0.2% The death rate was liner with age. Zero, none, zip, zilch, nada, for patients 0-to 9 years of age. One for patients 10 to 19 years of age. And it keeps progressing like that until you get to 60 to 69 3.2%, 70 to 79 7.9%, above 80 14.3% But overall the death rate is about 0.2%. Your 4% figure is from severely ill, hospitalized, intubated, patients in Italy. Most cases are asymptomatic many others are only mildly symptomatic. As a statistician when n =44,672 that's a good study. You ought to read it sometime.

Posted by: Paul Bogdanich | Mar 12 2020 23:28 utc | 330

karlof1 | Mar 11 2020 18:39 utc | 41

Using Google Chrome I can get it.

Posted by: foolisholdman | Mar 12 2020 23:29 utc | 331

Firstly i’d like to thank ‘b’ for providing this valuable platform. Which is at the moment a matter of life or death.
Compare the overall informed post, comments and links on this site to the ‘dumbed down’ minimal information our governments and main stream media are giving us ! Like a seditive while we’re being euthanasd !
Even the right wing comments here give a very usefull insight into the sick minds that are behind the creation of this virus and most importantly the underlying strategy.

DFC important link there thanks @ 328

Posted by: Mark2 | Mar 12 2020 23:32 utc | 332

"we kill these people, whomever they are, 50 or 100 to one. Or at least we did when I was in." --Paul Bogdanich @326

You're a subhuman monster. Evil incarnate, and you think that is cool. You obviously have no clue what karlof1 is talking about when he says that the empire is always losing its wars. You are so vile and mindlessly primitive that you actually think that killing is whole the point of war.

You do not qualify as human. You are just an attack dog, like al Qaeda or ISIS. Exactly like al Qaeda or ISIS. You probably think that is a compliment.

Posted by: William Gruff | Mar 12 2020 23:36 utc | 333

I wonder if some might view it as fortuitous fix for demographic imbalance.
How much would one have to pay for development of custom tailored virus?

Posted by: jared | Mar 12 2020 23:44 utc | 334

William Gruff @ 336

And you sir jump to too many unwarranted conclusions. I was 20 years old. Didn't know my ass from a hole in the ground. Thought all the bullshit I saw on TV and in the movies when I was young had some basis in reality and found myself in a bad situation one day. As a grown man I would never join the Marine Corps. I had a grown man, a veteran of my unit at the siege of Hue, try to tell me that at the time. But being 20 I didn't listen. Had to learn it for myself.

Posted by: Paul Bogdanich | Mar 12 2020 23:47 utc | 335

Thank you Seer for the Lancet link. I've been worried about and expecting that something like that was the case however it is important to remember that China's containment efforts still made and continues to make a big impact on the aggregate virulence thus the article isn't as bad as it sounds but offers an explanation in the form of outliers that slip through.

- - -

Separately I note that no one here have so far mentioned the recent news in Europe (and it has been half a day or more now), so I won't go into detail about it either! :D

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Mar 12 2020 23:54 utc | 336

@Paul Bogdanich #333
If you're a statistician, you're not a very good one.
The study you posted showed a mortality rate of 2.3%.
The only 0.2% mortality numbers were for 10-19, 20-29 and 30-39 age groups. For all older groups, it was higher.
The mortality rate in Hubei was 2.9%; the mortality rate elsewhere was 0.4% - so your wrong information didn't from there.
2.3% would be 7.6 million Americans at 100% infection rate.
At a more realistic 20% - that's "only" 1.5 million.
But a 0.4% rate - potentially the mortality with adequate facilities and care - would be 264,000 deaths.
1.2 million excess deaths seems like a big enough delta to me to justify significant measures.

Posted by: c1ue | Mar 12 2020 23:57 utc | 337

Sorry I should have written "paper" not "article".

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Mar 12 2020 23:57 utc | 338

Paul Bogdanich @338

And yet you brag about how good you are at killing.

Just to stay on topic, you do know that killing isn't such a big challenge, don't you? Snakes can do it. Bugs can do it. Even mindless chunks of RNA so small you need an electron microscope to see them can kill. You are proud of being the equivalent of a virus.

Congratulations, you are a worm. Your sole contribution to existence is killing beings that were all almost certainly better humans than you yourself.

Posted by: William Gruff | Mar 13 2020 0:00 utc | 339

To C1ue at 340

Read it again. The 44,672 sub set that is the subject of the paper was culled from the full sample set of seventy some odd thousand people. You get erroneous results when all you do is a back of the envelope calculation from the mortality table. All in including asymptomatic and undiagnosed cases the death rate is about 0.2%

Posted by: Paul Bogdanich | Mar 13 2020 0:02 utc | 340

COVID-19: Further Evidence that the Virus Originated in the US

Posted by: occupatio | Mar 13 2020 0:03 utc | 341

All this is nonsense. If this study:

is even half correct we are going to find out soon enough. Also notice in all these studies there is no reliable "test" for COVID-19. The method in both studies was growing cultures from swabs. I guarantee you they are working 24 hours a day seven days a week to develop a reliable "test" but nothing yet. Even when you think you have it you have to characterize the missed and false positives and that takes time.

Posted by: Paul Bogdanich | Mar 13 2020 0:07 utc | 342

@ 323 D.. thanks.. your last line is especially true! how old are you, if you don't mind me asking? thanks..

paul bogdanich... i am amazed at the responses you're getting here. people make mistakes and hopefully learn from them.. as the saying goes - 'let one who has not sinned, cast the first stone.' lots of folks throwing stones at you here! i think you are saying stuff people don't like hearing... keep it up..

Posted by: james | Mar 13 2020 0:22 utc | 343

Here's a good article in laymans terms.

Here's an excerpt:

"When Tedros made his remarks, the WHO had recorded 3,112 deaths and 90,869 cases. Dividing the deaths by the cases, you get 3.4 percent. But that denominator is actually pretty fuzzy. So far, many countries — even those with sophisticated health systems, like the US — have struggled to get adequate testing up and running. And, to date, much of the focus has been on checking people who traveled to affected countries, not the broader population.

That means, in many places, health authorities are only picking up a subset of the sick — and perhaps the most severe cases, given that roughly 80 percent of people with Covid-19 have a mild case. (Remember: The sickest are usually the ones who show up at doctor’s offices and hospitals, while there may be hundreds or thousands of others with the virus who never show symptoms or don’t bother going to see a doctor. That’s why the CFR can often look much worse in the early days of an outbreak.)

Some of the countries that have done more widespread testing appear to have relatively fewer deaths in the case mix. In South Korea, for example, where thousands of people are tested every day, they’ve picked up more than 7,500 people with the virus. Among those, 54 have died. If we use the WHO’s method of calculating the CFR — and don’t take into account the potential problem of underestimating the number of mild cases out there — a crude case fatality estimate hovers under 1 percent."

Based on my examination I still maintain the final CFR will be about 0.2%. Like I said, we will see soon enough.

Posted by: Paul Bogdanich | Mar 13 2020 0:26 utc | 344

Paul Bogdanich

Here in Australia, testing is relatively cheap or free. Anyone with the slightest symptoms are tested. Anyone seeking medical help for anything are first asked if they have been overseas. A few weeks ago I had to call an ambulance for my wife. When I rang the emergency number, first thing they asked was had she been to China recently. This when corona virus was largely confined to China.
Apparently there is very good tracking here - if somebody tests positive, everyone they have been in contact with are tracked down and tested.
My daughter works at a private hospital and they had a meeting just recently. At some point coronavirus will spread through the population here and if allowed to run unchecked hospitals will be swamped and many will die.
Survival rate and death rate are very dependent on level of medical care patients recieve.
You cite various death rates and they are relatively low but - that is with good medical care.
China threw everything at it, medical staff from all over China quickly going to the hard hit areas, new hospitals built in just a few days.
On top of that they shut the country down to slow the spread.

That survival and death rate numbers are totally dependent on level of medical care is something you don't seem to understand.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 13 2020 1:04 utc | 345

@ 348 peter au... last line - yes - that is the critical part to all the numbers too... without a closer look, as you gave - the general data is not that helpful..

Posted by: james | Mar 13 2020 1:10 utc | 346

To Peter AU1 # 348

You can't determine a full CFR until you have a blood based antigen marker test. Before that you miss all the people who are totally asymptomatic or working for a living and decline testing so they don't get put in quarantine or lose their employ. All I'm saying is I think we are overreacting and that the all in CFR will be about 0.2%. So shoot me. Everyone else does but that remains my opinion based on the data I have sifted.

Posted by: Paul Bogdanich | Mar 13 2020 1:18 utc | 347

Until there is reasonable consensus to guide us - which means as long as people can argue about the lethality of this event - it seems best if we act as if:

1. the fatality rate is very high
2. the infectiousness is somewhere close to impossible to avoid
3. delaying your own exposure and contamination in order to slow the spread is the best possible contribution you can make to your community's healthcare system

In the face of unknown dangers it makes sense to err on the side of caution rather than on the side of serendipity.

The statistics and odds are interesting, and will eventually help us choose wise courses between life and death, but at present the principles of action seem unvarying regardless of the numbers.

Posted by: Grieved | Mar 13 2020 1:27 utc | 348

The ones who don't die from this virus are gonna die from headaches caused by trying to crunch the numbers and deduce the odds of living - and living with or without toilet paper as a further subset of the numbers. This event has caused a lot of people, including me, to do a lot of thinking all at once.

I always loved the description by Douglas Adams in one his Hitchiker books of the furious concentration of one of his characters trying to program the flight of a new kind of space ship immediately pre-launch, that he "looked like a man trying to convert Fahrenheit to Centigrade in his head while his house was burning down."

The ship, by the way, was powered by the new science of "bistromathics", derived from finally cracking the code of how the total on the bill for a party at a restaurant could possibly be accurate.

Those were simpler days, perhaps.

Posted by: Grieved | Mar 13 2020 1:42 utc | 349

Paul Bogdanich

This was the official method for diagnosis at 23rd January in Australia. Possibly its changed since then. Many illnesses and conditions are diagnosed using a number of criteria when no single accurate test is available. In the case of coronavirus, those people matching any of the criteria can be tested.
There appears to be three separate tests available to positively identify coronavirus.

Suspect case
As the full clinical spectrum of illness is not known, clinical and public health judgement should also be used to determine the need for testing in patients who do not meet the clinical criteria below.
If the patient satisfies epidemiological and clinical criteria, they are classified as a suspect case.
• Travel to Wuhan City (Hubei Province, China) in the 14 days before the onset of illness.
Travel to an area* with evidence of sustained human-to-human transmission, or a declared
outbreak, within 14 days before onset of illness.
• Close contact (see Contact definition below) in 14 days before illness onset with a case
of 2019-nCoV.
Clinical criteria
• Fever or history of fever (>=38C) and acute respiratory infection (sudden onset of
respiratory infection with at least one of: shortness of breath, cough or sore throat).
• Severe acute respiratory infection requiring admission to hospital with clinical or
radiological evidence of pneumonia or acute respiratory distress syndrome (i.e. even if
no evidence of fever).

Confirmed case
A person who tests positive to a specific 2019-nCoV PCR test (when available) or has the virus
identified by electron microscopy or viral culture, at a reference laboratory
Epidemiological criteria.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 13 2020 1:49 utc | 350

@ DFC 282

“Cheers” to you, as well. Indeed, I confess to ribbing you a bit, with my comment. But, I think you knew that. Thank you for not “taking me to the woodshed”. :-)

I understand your feelings about the “winner” / “loser” talk. Unfortunately, I know some people who really think like they’re “tools” of the oligarchs. It’s sad and frustrating to listen to.

Posted by: oglalla | Mar 13 2020 2:48 utc | 351

People had a choice. Face the cold virus and trust your immune systems, which is quite robust in healthy people, or panic and devastate the economy and many more lives with supply disruptions and bankruptcies.

They chose to let fear rule them. You live with your choices, or dont. . As FDR said, the only thing to fear is fear itself. Unfortunately fear seems to be addictive.

The coming “LOCK STEP” will have long lasting consequences for those who care about freedom. Good luck.

To know what LOCK STEP means for you look to China (take off your rose tinted glasses first) . Excellent article here.

Posted by: Pft | Mar 13 2020 2:54 utc | 352

@ Paul

>> What I'm saying is the panic is worse than, and doing more damage than, the disease.

What damage is worse than people dying?

>> We're in a tough spot, beyond our control.

A moment ago, you said we’re doing damage. That implies control. Now you’re saying we have no control.

>> Some of us are going to die. Nobody's fault.

Depends. If you apply political or peer pressure to encourage people to attend NBA games in person and then more people die because of your advice, then the fault becomes partially yours.

>> I just lament the fact that nobody seems to be able accept the hard facts.

Seems like everyone accepts the hard facts and prefers to save lives rather than continue going to sporting venues and nightlife. Everyone but you. Which path is virtuous?


Sure, there’s more “damage” than just lost opportunities to enjoy luxuries ( sports venues, bars, etc ). I’m oversimplifying. But, much work can continue via telework, which will yield its own benefits. Maybe this will finally push some loser managers into accepting telework.

Posted by: oglalla | Mar 13 2020 3:09 utc | 353

>> think our response is cowardly

Wouldn’t it be cowardly to reject saving other people’s lives in order to try to continue “fun and games as usual”?

Posted by: oglalla | Mar 13 2020 3:15 utc | 354

@ Paul

Sorry, I probably shouldn’t have “piled on”, given that you’re already defending against multiple people. FWIW, i appreciate your general politeness while trying to articulate and support an alternate viewpoint (even if it’s one I currently don’t “get”).


And “good night, fellow barflies”.

Posted by: oglalla | Mar 13 2020 3:29 utc | 355

With luck, one way or another, coronavirus will drive another half dozen nails into the coffin of the US empire.
Unless Americans recieved a coronavirus vaccine that was slipped into their flue shots, US will be hit hard. Clowns like Paul who's intelligence does not seem to have increased since his younger days of killing gooks, darkies or whatever the fashionable term was for their target subhumans will help to ensure the US is hit hard.
I guess US being what it is, the pile of bodies will be useful to stand on to get a better view of stock market prices.
Great community spirit there. Sacrifice the old and weak for the greater good of the stock market.
What a shithole country.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 13 2020 3:35 utc | 356

Phryn's frock #325

YES +++++ to your key point. Thank you and good luck.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Mar 13 2020 3:42 utc | 357

james | Mar 13 2020 0:22 utc | 346

40 years old with a young wife and two preteen kids.

Easy to isolate ourselves on a farm.

Caught it from picking up a friend at the airport in Durban. His flight was delayed, so I ended up spending almost a full day in the arrivals lounge, and got sick literally the next day.

Over here the isolation is entirely voluntary, and a bit of homeschooling never hurt, so no real harm done.
Also we dont have the infrastructure, as a state, to control the spread, and nobody seems to be panicking. Officially they are estimating roughly 20 cases nationwide so far, which must be complete and utter bullshit, unless I personally know half...

Posted by: D | Mar 13 2020 4:39 utc | 358

Oregon COVID-19 cases doubled in 2 days. On the morning of 3/10 there were 15 cases. Just a few minutes ago, the new statewide total reached 30 cases.

Posted by: Trisha | Mar 13 2020 4:48 utc | 359

Posted by: Pft | Mar 13 2020 2:54 utc | 356

Face the cold virus and trust your immune systems, which is quite robust in healthy people, or panic and devastate the economy and many more lives with supply disruptions and bankruptcies.

If your economy wasn't based 100% upon destruction and disaster, including all the just-in-time tightropes it deliberately walks at all times, including all "outsourcing" and deliberate eradication of all regional self-sufficiency, it wouldn't be so vulnerable even to severe crises.

They chose to let fear rule them. You live with your choices, or dont. . As FDR said, the only thing to fear is fear itself. Unfortunately fear seems to be addictive.

The pandemic is causing only a portion of the ambient fear-itself. The great majority of it was already free-floating and perhaps now is being concentrated by this pest. That includes all the anxiety constantly generated by your commodity economy.

The coming “LOCK STEP” will have long lasting consequences for those who care about freedom.

Nothing is more enslaving and self-enslaving, more antithetical to all freedom (except the Sodom and Gomorrah license of the rich, which isn't freedom either - none of them ever look free to stop accumulating, be happy and go enjoy life), than the economic death march.

The economy is the source of the Coronavirus pandemic in the first place, and it is the cause of all the death and travail that comes from this pest. The pest and its effects, including any economic disruption up to and including collapse, is a blow purely self-inflicted by a civilization at war with its own biological basis, including waging war on its own people.

You scapegoat individuals who are deliberately deprived of accurate and truthful information (regarding this pest and about everything else, going back as far as anyone alive can remember), deliberately deprived of all sense of stability and security and community sufficiency and resilience (again going back as far as we can recall), scapegoat them for giving in to fear (which of course is a manifestation of the ideology of capitalist individualism into which they all were indoctrinated).

You scapegoat them for behaving exactly the way the elites of the economic society normally want them to behave and expend such resources to indoctrinate and propagandize such behavior, now that we've reached a crisis where this behavior threatens to boomerang on the slave economy itself.

If a few people must insist on weeping for the plight of the economy, at least put the blame where it belongs, 100% on the elites. No amount of panic (and none of us knows at this early date what really constitutes panic, as opposed to prudence) on the part of the people could exceed the bounds of the mass-psychological atmosphere the elites of the economic civilization deliberately have instilled in these masses, which this economy deliberately atomized in the first place.

Posted by: Russ | Mar 13 2020 5:18 utc | 360

Looks like the Trudeaus have the virus. But never fear Queen Chrystia's got the helm. Her Alexander Haig moment perhaps.

Sophie Gregoire Trudeau Tests Positive For Covid-19, PM Begins 14 Day Isolation

"...Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland said she spoke with Trudeau several times on Thursday and that he sounded 'energetic as usual'. 'He sounded fantastic. He's very much in charge,' Freeland told CTV's Power-Play..."

Sure sounds like it. She also advised Canadians that Donald Trump's European travel ban was done without consultation with Canada and that seeing it on TV was how the government first learned of it, despite serious effects and implications of the move for Canada.

Freeland has been quite adept at brownosing Republican Washington, of course caving to US demands re NAFTA didn't hurt, nor did snatching Meng Wanzhou for them, nor adopting similarly belligerent stances by Canada against all on Washington's shit-list, Venezuela, Bolivia, Russia with a will, and mutual deep and eternal love for Israel as well naturally, but you can tell she'd really rather do a Dem. Freeland and Biden would get on swell. Watch for her star to rise higher in the firmament perhaps even higher than Trudeau's, as his numbers plummet, his pipelines fail, Indians block railways and our oligarchs consider Freeland.

Posted by: John Gilberts | Mar 13 2020 5:43 utc | 361

...The coming “LOCK STEP”...

Lock step is not coming. It arrived long ago. Snowden gave us a glimpse. Holland Merkel did not see concerned about have their phones monitored by uncle sam.
For any of us hooked into the US system which includes the phones and the internet we use are all monitored by uncle sam. Every thing we do and say are recorded by five eyes.
US is good at projecting onto others what it is itself doing .

Pft quoting US stink tanks and ebay owner Omidyar to back his argument...

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 13 2020 6:13 utc | 362

The Chinese were reacting to a sudden, extensive-but-local, outbreak of a virus about which they knew only the symptoms, the most alarming being the apparently long incubation period. They responded as they did, but I'm sure in retrospect, if not now, they would've done so differently. After all, why isn't the response to sequester those deemed most at risk, i.e., elderly people with pre-existing conditions as well as others with serious respiratory ailments, people likely not in the work force to begin with. They would be provided all they need from consistently safe sources. Shutting down stadia when you can't shut down transit, pre-bailing out banks and corporate leeches to the tune of hundreds of billions, trillions before we're through, and an entire new suite of 'bio-security' industries, technologies, lobbyists, military funding, financial wizardry.

Buy into this (apparently) blind panic, the hoarding, for instance, and we might just as well hold the door open for a full-blown crisis, a state of emergency, canceling elections, etc.

Like 9/11, this provides the cover for anything.

Posted by: Artful Dodger | Mar 13 2020 6:26 utc | 363

@SharonM | Mar 12 2020 13:58 utc | 226

Just for the sake of a realistic perspective:
Because of their attacks on foreign nations, the U.S., Britain, Israel, and France have murdered, crippled, and displaced tens of millions of people in the last two decades.
Traffic deaths around the world are at about 1.35 million per year.
Alleged deaths from Coronavirus are under 5000.

My headline would be:
"No Bail-Outs: Do Not Allow Martial Law For A Flu."

It's still early. People are justifiably worried because Covid's 5000 fatalities can grow enormously.

The other day, MoA made a very good point: that Covid-19 is a new virus, meaning that nobody is immune to it yet.

Thus a country's infection rate can grow to 20%, 30%, or even more. German Chancellor Angela Merkel recently admitted that 60% to 70% of the country could be infected.

Germany's population is about 80 million. Let's assume an infection rate of 60%; this is the low end of Merkel's range, but we'll err on the cautious side. If fatality rates are 0.2% (the case in China outside Hubei; the death rate in Hubei province is far worse), then 96,000 Germans could die.

That is just the Germans. Who knows what the global body count will be? Do you see now why the World Health Organization is right to worry?

Posted by: Cyril | Mar 13 2020 6:30 utc | 364

As the US #COVID19 situation becomes increasingly obscure, the Chinese public shares the suspicion raised by Zhao Lijian @zlj517 that the US might be the source of the virus and that the US is subject questioning and is obliged to explain the world.

"Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian on Thursday suspected it might be US army representatives who brought the novel coronavirus to Wuhan, Central China's Hubei Province, in October 2019, after a top US health official admitted that some deaths from flu have been found posthumously related to coronavirus. Zhao urged the US to disclose information like the patient zero in the country and be transparent on coronavirus cases and give an explanation to the public"

Mar 11
A Chinese team has developed a rapid antibody test that can diagnose #coronavirus within 15 minutes by testing a drop of blood. It can be used for the rapid screening of SARS‐CoV‐2 carriers, symptomatic or asymptomatic, in hospitals, clinics, and test labs: reports

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 13 2020 6:37 utc | 365

Paul Bogdanich@347

I found your bragging about being a marine to be repulsive as I was drafted as a 1AO CO and worked as a medical laboratory specialist and senior clinical specialist.

As for statistical analysis, I will not argue with you at this time as my main background was in setting up statistically obscure sampling and analysis protocols for beryllium contamination using anthrax sampling and statistical analysis methods.

I would suggest that you preface your argument by noting that even medical professionals see the patient outcome much like the blind men describing an elephant. The virus infection severity is dependent on many factors including immune response, nutritional status, cellular function status (often are related), neurology, lung function, mineral deficiencies, hormone status, etc. For example in Italy the death rate may be elevated by several million immigrants, many of which have underlying TB infections that are activated by a cascade of biochemical responses of a viral infection. Likewise, in America there is an elevated incidence if Nontuberculous Mycobacterial Diseases (NTM)that can result in death following a viral immune response.

Your approach of just letting the virus burn itself out is cold and calculating. It will result in excess mortality among otherwise compromised individuals (viral and otherwise) when the medical system in America is overloaded. This approach appears to be just what the fascist ruling class in America has chosen to do!

Fortunately, many of these "leaders" are old and in poor health and will be the some of the first to go as they recently attended large CPAC and/or AIPAC conferences where they were exposed to individuals actively shedding the SARS-CoV-2 virus. These conferences have spread the virus to many, mostly Zionist, communities across the US, Canada and other countries such as Brazil.

Speaking of Brazil, President Trump summoned the President of Brazil of the Florida White House where Zionist members of the Brazil delegation took the time to attend the AIPAC conferences prior to the meetings. The Brazil Press Secretary repeatedly came in close contact with Trump and Pence (including selfies) on several occasions and later flew back to Brazil in the plane with the President of Brazil and than met with most of the US Southern Command military officers. The Press Secretary soon tested positive two times for SARS-CoV-2.

Attempts to save the stock market and destroy the democratically elected government of Venezuela may be out the window as the death toll increases. I would agree that the death toll to second and third order effects will dwarf the virus related deaths. I differ from your clinical approach in the it doesn't take into account the psychological and sociological responses to the crisis which cannot be contained by a few national guard troops (many are deployed in Trump's little 30,000+ man war game in Eastern Europe).

It is a shame that the US government isn't honest about its approach to cull the herd. I give you credit for being honest and pointing out that the virus is only one of many issues facing the American people and the environment we depend on to survive.

I hope others realize that the prior choices by the ruling class has led to this outcome which would otherwise be minimized by responsible actions in many areas rather than wars of conquest, the raping of the economy and of the environment.

Posted by: krollchem | Mar 13 2020 7:13 utc | 366

The whole western government is crazy. All they need to do in this matter is simple:
- quarantine areas with large infection, enlarge if more and more cases pop up, quarantine the entire country if necessary.
- Encourage everyone to wear mask.
- Ban all schools, service work, only perform the necessary work (production of mask, food, necessity)
- Perform mass screening test on areas where the infected are discovered, the more the better to mark out areas that need to be quarantined.
- Ban all travels from countries with more than 50 cases.
- Immediately put ration on food, mask, hand sanitizer, toilet paper.
- Bring in military to control transportation flows and guarding sick camps/quarantine areas.

The economy is going to take a hit, but it's better than just let the virus going unchecked, the mere public uncertainty alone is gonna destroy the economy more in long term.

Posted by: Smith | Mar 13 2020 7:53 utc | 367

Posted by: John Gilberts | Mar 13 2020 5:43 utc | 365

Freeland has been quite adept at brownosing Republican Washington, of course caving to US demands re NAFTA didn't hurt, nor did snatching Meng Wanzhou for them, nor adopting similarly belligerent stances by Canada against all on Washington's shit-list, Venezuela, Bolivia, Russia with a will, and mutual deep and eternal love for Israel as well naturally, but you can tell she'd really rather do a Dem.

There was a time (10-15 yrs. ago) when I was scratching my head wondering why Canada is behaving more and more like a 53 State of US of A. Well I was cured of that about 10 yrs ago.

People get fooled by Freeland ,IMHO, due to her last name and not know anything about who emigrated to Canada after WWII. On the last point it was in part these individuals and their families who got a free pass to Canada so as to escape the justice they would have gotten from the Soviets, bullet in the head.
14th Waffen Grenadier Division of the SS (1st Galician)

It is worthy to note that such "kid glove" treatment was not extended to the Cossacks who were also from the lands called today Ukraine.
A large segment of Ukrainian (Western) diaspora in Canada has firm roots in the "mind frame" of the men who entered the 14th Waffen Grenadier Division of the SS during WWII. The Poles know all too well what sort of people they were. The other notables in Western Ukraine during that time were the "valiant soldiers" of OUN/UPA who to this day heroically fight the Neocon War in Ukraine.

Freeland dances around the fact that she is a Catholic and that her grandfather was just a journalist(yeh right). Well closer analysis of what was happening in that part of the World and after the WWII suggest that Freeland is a Neocon in a skirt. Her grandfather was a very special journalist (sic).

So no, Freeland is not some talented Canadian politician who made it to the top of the food chain of power in Canada. She has a specific mind set required in the New World Order hence the position. She is a leader in waiting should Ukraine by some miracle go full Neocon. Another version of Mikheil Saakashvili of Georgia but not needed there at the moment.

Posted by: Tom_LX | Mar 13 2020 9:08 utc | 368

@ Peter AU1 | Mar 12 2020 22:17 utc | 324 (the intrepid jarhead P)
The "training" puts the fellas in a sort of emotional "warrior" delusion. This is easier if they're stupid. I do agree with P insofar as when you can't do anything but what you must, then you must. As it is for a crew member in a ship during an emergency, or in a lifeboat tempest tossed, or if people are doing their best to kill you. Obviously it is in the instance entirely idiotic to take no or ineffective actions. Just plain dumb. We recall Buck Turgidson's (G C Scott) making fun of the marines. When I had to work with them I used to tease them a lot, fag jokes mostly, they'd turn the most interesting shades of red and blue. Great entertainment...their campy dress uniforms provide a rich source of such jokes. I have noticed that generally the plainer the dress, the better the soldier... Thinking here of the men and women of the VC and NVA, black pajamas. Best. Not Show, all go. So to speak. I believe a fair case in Nuremberg Law can be made that the marine corp is a criminal organization, Brother Smedley Might well agree. When the army wanted me they promised to make 18 year old Wally a "sniper". The precision 30.06 rifle is a fun weapon, no doubt. The kid surprised himself, and flat out told those people that if they wanted somebody dead, they'd have to do it themselves. NFW was I gunna shoot anybody. They (incredible!) told me I might be rehabilitated. Ma kurrupt Quaker blood I guess. I am still not rehabilitated. NFW will old Wally willingly hurt anybody.


@ Karlof1 > Thanks for Franklin Reality Model - I will follow that up a bit.

When I was a kid we thought we had a nation, a national mythos, a fairly or somewhat unified worldview. What's left? It seems to be a deconstruction of national shared consciousness. Thatcher claimed there was no society, only individual... ie nation is not even possible.

Now I see institutions, essential to every nation, burning one after another...even to pulling down statues...iconoclastic, the gods dying.


Between CV effects and the evident econ-oh(!)fubar et sec and the obviously rigged voting, we seem to be over-looking a chaotic and dangerous phase-change, presently the crystal structure (as if a state or a nation were a metal) is becoming liquid...foundations then "sink" - so to say.


Posted by: Walter | Mar 13 2020 9:52 utc | 369

At this stage it's not a question of if, but when people will get the virus.

So shutting everything down and putting people in bubbles will just delay the inevitable at great cost.

The question then is what's the value of delay? It's 2 fold:

1. Spread out infections over a longer period of time creates more capacity in hospitals to deal with patients.
2. Scientists and doctors are furiously working on better treatments - it could become the case where the treatment ensures that nobody dies.

If you don't believe 2 can come in time ( which I think is wrong - they are taking the advice of people who are out of touch with modern drug development - eg look up the P3 pandemic prevention programme ), then ideally you'd have all the people who are likely to have a mild disease get it first while staying away from the vulnerable. Once the majority of people have had it, then the spreading rate will dramatically drop due to herd immunity naturally.

So for example - children are at very low risk - so *don't* close schools - let them all get it but tell them to stay away from grandparents - once they have all got it - it can't spread via schools anymore....

However as I said, I think they are underestimating the ability of scientists to come up with better treatments....

Posted by: Scientist | Mar 13 2020 11:07 utc | 370

In 1918 the first wave of the virus was not very lethal. It did not spread very far since travel was slow. The second wave in the fall was lethal. Those areas exposed in the first wave suffered less. Giving a virus time to mutate is probably not a great idea. At best its a coin flip as a virus can become more or less lethal. Of course, in 1918 it was the young who suffered most (8-10% of young adults died) and there were no antibiotics (many died from secondary bacterial infections).

Anyways, the dumb virus makes this all mute. Carry on

Posted by: Pft | Mar 13 2020 11:34 utc | 371

I see from RT that the Chinese obviously have a very good idea as to who and where the CV19 virus was first hatched-out.

Some may recall the Wally mooted "agent Sam" bringing CV19 to Wuhan. Looks like they might agree with Wally.

"...“When did patient zero begin in US? How many people are infected? What are the names of the hospitals? It might be US army who brought the epidemic to Wuhan. Be transparent! Make public your data! US owe us an explanation!” Zhao wrote.

The Chinese spokesman is not the only high-ranking official to raise questions about how the virus sparked a global epidemic. Former Malaysian PM Matthias Chang offered similar speculation back in January, describing the outbreak as the start of a biological war waged by the US against Beijing...."

Not that it matters. Geopolitical relations cannot be based (for long) on paybacks and emotions...for if they were, we would all be dead.

@ Scientist> I agree with your 374, and expect to get infected... I do not expect any support, and expect to survive...@ nicely in excess of 70 years... However I also do worry about the XYL (wife) - she's got a myeloma that affect the white blood cells and immune response in compromised...but maybe that will mitigate the symptoms...we'll see.

Wally continues to see CV as a purpose-made weapon. Whether the release was coincidental, deliberate, or accidental, whether Policy or sabotage - is weapon from weapon factory that went industrial in 1941 (Merck Report), used bioweapons against Korea and China starting 01 January 1952 as Policy (similar to Nixon's bombing, this was during "peace talks"...) Of course everyone knows part of the CBW in Vietnam, only a part - and these days DU munitions amount to "dusting" - a form of prohibited radioactive poisoning once (in the 50's) discussed at DC cocktail parties. In case people doubt that "they" would scruple to infect "their own people" - they never have hesitated in the past... (but that's a public secret)

Wally wants to know how the 30,000 NATO fellas are - and notes that "Mr Chin" and "Ivan" must be watching closely to see if CV19 afflicts these individuals... or have they been inoculated in a secret diabolical and insane plan? Did Fort Detrick make a vaccine?

Trump's voice from yesterday sounds kinna rough...does the Clown of Orange have a sore throat? Or has he been abusing his vocal apparatus by screaming in rage?

film at 11, as they used to say.

Posted by: Walter | Mar 13 2020 11:39 utc | 372

Swine Flu Was Officially a Hoax, Corona Virus Probably is Too. Big Pharma Stands to Profit, Again (SOTT)

In January 2010, Wolfgang Wodarg, a German deputy who trained as a physician and now chairs the health committee at the Council of Europe, claimed major firms had organised a "campaign of panic" around swine flu to put pressure on the World Health Organization (WHO) to declare a "false pandemic" to sell vaccines. Wodarg said the WHO's "false pandemic" flu campaign is "one of the greatest medicine scandals of the century". He said that the "false pandemic" campaign began in May 2009 in Mexico City, when a hundred or so "normal" reported influenza cases were declared to be the beginning of a threatening new pandemic, although he said there was little scientific evidence for this. Nevertheless, he argued that the WHO, "in cooperation with some big pharmaceutical companies and their scientists, re-defined pandemics", removing the statement that "an enormous amount of people have contracted the illness or died" from its existing definition and replacing it by stating simply that there has to be a virus, spreading beyond borders and to which people have no immunity.

In March 2010, the Council of Europe launched an inquiry into "the influence of the pharmaceutical companies on the global swine flu campaign", the findings of which made interesting reading.

Breathe! Don't Succumb to the Pathological Hysteria from the Coronavirus Madness (SOTT)

Prolonged stress alters the effectiveness of cortisol to regulate the inflammatory response because it decreases tissue sensitivity to the hormone. Specifically, immune cells become insensitive to cortisol's regulatory effect. Runaway inflammation is thought to promote the development and progression of many diseases. The same mechanism is at play in type 2 diabetes when cells become insensitive to the hormone insulin which spikes continually in its effort to regulate blood sugar levels coming from a high carbohydrate diet.

Cohen showed how people suffering from psychological stress are more susceptible to developing symptoms of the common cold due to the inflammatory response that is triggered by the body's effort to fight the infection. The greater the body's inflammatory response to the virus, the greater the chance of having symptoms of the common cold.

Posted by: fourfour | Mar 13 2020 11:46 utc | 373

Peter AU1

Sometimes the “stink tanks” lay out their plans for all to see. Knowing of course the herd is too dumb to comprehend. HG Wells called it the Open Conspiracy. Snowden is controlled opposition, laying out the elites conspiracy. Currently in Russia, who is a willing partner to the global elites conspiracy (as is Chinas elite, both since 1990). It serves everyones purpose to engage in the fake wrestling (us vs china and or russia) .Its a fake Cold war made possible by the dumb virus going around.

Its pretty sad reading the comments here nowadays.

Posted by: Pft | Mar 13 2020 11:48 utc | 374

I snatched the following text from the oft cited article:

" I related in an earlier article, between 2005 and 2012 the US had experienced 1,059 events where pathogens had been either stolen or escaped from American bio-labs during the prior ten years – an average of one every three days."

Apparently the virus has affected the part of my brain that does math. I cannot make sense of it.

Posted by: jared | Mar 13 2020 11:51 utc | 375

Posted by: Walter | Mar 13 2020 11:39 utc | 376

I also take the tweet from Zhao as being the official stand of the Chinese government. By now they must have enough data to put one and one together. Having looked at these "event" over the last 10-20 years you start to see what elements are in the script.

1) Perps either disappear or are killed or are in the process of being hunted down (for years). "It's Osama"
2) Some silly elements are added that for someone thinking critically would ring alarms. To the Public they are only "That makes no sense. Oh well." . "The inspectors found aluminum tubes"
3)Guilty is announced almost immediately and this News like one choir is repeated by MSM 24/7.

Posted by: Tom_LX | Mar 13 2020 12:00 utc | 376

Please excuse my remark above, the math works. Was my brain that did not work.

Posted by: jared | Mar 13 2020 12:07 utc | 377

Posted by: Pft | Mar 13 2020 11:48 utc | 378

Sometimes the “stink tanks” lay out their plans for all to see. Knowing of course the herd is too dumb to comprehend.

Excellent observation and should be in my list of how they do these events.

In the case of this one, one such way is the infamous "Rebuilding Americas Defenses" of the Neocons.

A silly element for me is the rumor of APAC boys getting it in the "Green Room". Yes, the "green screen" is very versatile in illusions.

Green screen

Posted by: Tom_LX | Mar 13 2020 12:07 utc | 378


The United States and its allies have canceled a series of joint exercises around the world as the new coronavirus pandemic continued to grip the international community.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg told Agence France-Presse last Wednesday that the Western military alliance planned "no cancellation of exercises" related to the spread of the COVID-19 disease across Europe. However, a week later, host nation Norway called off Cold Response 20, one of the maneuvers being conducted as part of the larger Defender-Europe 20 exercise that was supposed to send 20,000 U.S. troops to Europe in their largest deployment there in a quarter-century.


But the disease has already taken hold. While U.S. Army Europe told Newsweek in a statement Thursday that "at this time, we are not aware of any U.S. personnel associated with DEFENDER-Europe 20 that have a positive diagnosis for COVID-19," the Polish Defense Ministry confirmed days earlier that commander General Jaroslaw Mika tested positive after attending a conference related to the exercise. As a result, the U.S. top Army general in Europe, Lieutenant General Christopher Cavoli, was potentially exposed and remains in quarantine with several staffers.

Elsewhere in Europe, a civilian employee at U.S. Army Garrison Bavaria tested positive Wednesday, as has a U.S. sailor at Naval Support Activity Naples in Italy, where active COVID-19 cases will soon surpass that of China, the disease's country of origin. The entire country is in lockdown.


Posted by: Bemildred | Mar 13 2020 12:21 utc | 379

Good panel discussion on coronavirus from a UCSF expert panel:

Some key points:

At this point, we are past containment. Containment is basically futile. Our containment efforts won’t reduce the number who get infected in the US.

Based on observations from Chinese clinical treatments, while children can get COVID-19 and be infectious, they don't tend to develop severe symptoms that lead to death

I take issue a bit with these extrapolations:

[We used their numbers to work out a guesstimate of deaths— indicating about 1.5 million Americans may die. The panelists did not disagree with our estimate. This compares to seasonal flu’s average of 50K Americans per year. Assume 50% of US population, that’s 160M people infected. With 1% mortality rate that's 1.6M Americans die over the next 12-18 months.]  

The fatality rate is in the range of 10X flu.

The death rate varies hugely by age. Over age 80 the mortality rate could be 10-15%. 

When they assume 50% infection rate they are including a lot of young people so not sure the 1% mortality would hold. 

Might be more reasonable to use the 10x worse than the flu and multiply by the 50K usual flu deaths which would give a number of 500,000.

Then also most of those 50,000 actually die of bacterial pneumonia complicating the viral infection and could have possibly been treated by antibiotics but most were very aged and near death.

In contrast many of the coronavirus patients may be healthier.  This could make a more reasonable number maybe around 100,000 to 200,000 (better than 1.2 million anyway)

Posted by: financial matters | Mar 13 2020 12:24 utc | 380

financial matters 384

The China numbers I saw was 3% death rate among those requiring medical care (number of recovered patients vs number of deaths).

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 13 2020 12:43 utc | 381

@Zanon #313

It’s a useful chart, thank you. Some commenters who do not understand the concept of rapid growth would do well to look at it and think about it.

Posted by: S | Mar 13 2020 12:53 utc | 382

This may help to explain the indifference exhibited by our federal government and its agencies:

Posted by: jared | Mar 13 2020 13:04 utc | 383

@368 Cyril

Thank you for the response:)
I understand your point of view, I do. I just don't agree with the panic which may allow for the people to give up their liberties and rights for what James Corbett calls, "medical martial law". Human life means you face mortality everyday. Being poor, like I am, means you face it more than the well-off or wealthy. I'm entirely unconvinced that this virus should allow people to become cowards without criticism, and to give up more freedom, Cyril.

Posted by: SharonM | Mar 13 2020 14:21 utc | 384

There is way way too many people with air between their ears.

My daughter spent just over $50 for, I think, 12 rolls from Costco, which they say will be delivered in 3-5 days. My workplace has locked up all rolls.

If they cry Fire get out of the way immediately.

Posted by: Tom_LX | Mar 13 2020 14:34 utc | 385

@Nemesiscalling | Mar 12 2020 17:34 utc | 270

Absolutely no credit given to POTUS and his compliments given to Xi and China wrt their tackling this.

Of course not, as Trump is rarely sincere. He compliments Xi one day. Then he blames Xi harshly for not doing enough against the virus. Why should Trump be given credit for his insincerity?

Posted by: Cyril | Mar 13 2020 14:45 utc | 386

Walter @372:

I turned over the piece of paper --
and there -- there, on the other side . . .
in the middle of the other side . . .
away from everything else on the other side . . .
in capital letters . . .
parentheses . . .
quotated . . .
read the followin' words:


Posted by: jalp | Mar 13 2020 17:47 utc | 387

To 308...
Same here. I have been having little fever and troat pain going and comming for about a week, light enough to simply ignore it. On thuesday a severe cough started with very nasty green slime...
As I am asmatic and have recurrent bronchitis due to alergic issues, I started to worry and went to doctor. Here in Germany they put you in quarantine really quick, but I thought it is just a normal flu, as I havent been to china or Italy or (I thought) contacted any infected people.
The Doctorr put me on leave for a week, but he was clearly terrified to touch me, speaking behind a mask and his desk.
After about 3 days more spitting light green slime looks like its gone.
I spent almost all the time in bed, drinking water, and having a couple of hot water bottles al the time over my chest. Sweating like a pig.
Today I feel almost ok.
Corona or not... I don't know, they haven't make any proofing, nor sent me to a hospital, just home. But... I was a week at home with a cold in December... it would be the first time in my life I have it twice in a Year.
I have told my wife to be prepared. If she fall ill next week we all know what is it. As the median incubation time is about 2 weeks

Nasty Slime though.

Posted by: FMAN | Mar 13 2020 17:47 utc | 388

@Paul Bogdanich #342
Wrong. There is a chart that clearly shows the mortality rates as being 2.3% overall, which shows the groups included and breaks down by various demographics. You either are stupid or being deliberately disinformational.
Furthermore, as I noted, none of the sub-populations are anywhere close to 0.2% - so adding 30k to the population won’t change results from 2.3% to 0.2%.
A real statistician should have some sense of the impact of numerator/denominator changes.
You clearly do not.

Posted by: c1ue | Mar 13 2020 17:52 utc | 389

Looks like the nCOV panic in CA has started. Grocery store: never in 18 years have I seen it with 20-30 people in line at each register, much less Friday before noon. Toilet paper aisle almost completely empty although there is TP elsewhere in store. Every 2nd person buying TP

Posted by: c1ue | Mar 13 2020 19:05 utc | 390

@Paul Bogdanich | Mar 12 2020 19:44 utc | 292

Some of us are going to die .... My question is what do you do about that? Shut down society and spend the better part of a trillion dollars so that only 10 million die instead of 15 million ... ?

Spend the better part of a trillion dollars? Nonsense. The US didn't have to do a lockdown, like China. Washington had several months to prepare, after all. It could have greatly mitigated the impact of the virus by producing working test kits in a timely fashion, by building hospitals, and by actually administering the tests, regardless of the protests from the usual free market fanatics. All of this would not have cost anywhere near a $trillion -- maybe not even $10 billion.

America could still reduce the death count greatly -- at a slightly higher cost, thanks to squandering so much time.

So basically what you are saying is, "Let some people die, because I'm too callous and too cheap to spend a tiny fraction of GDP to save hundreds of thousands of lives."

Posted by: Cyril | Mar 13 2020 20:11 utc | 391

Cyril | Mar 13 2020 20:11 utc | 391 It depends on what a man sees as value. If he values death, then Paul might be right. If, on the other hand, he values life, he's "dead" wrong.

It's pretty obvious what RICO , er, USMC, sees as's what they do, murder.

So don't be hard on Comrade P, he can't help what he is.

Posted by: Walter | Mar 13 2020 20:30 utc | 392

more cases are popping up in Japan ... despite the lack of large scale testing ... the new cases seems contracted SARS-Cov2 from an Egyptian Nile River cruise ...

Posted by: r | Mar 13 2020 20:57 utc | 393

FMAN Update
I wrote about my experience some hours ago.

Well, my wife started with the symptoms, throat aches, bit off tiredness, bit of fever... no coughing as of now.

I am feeling better, not 100% fit yet, but.

So... that's why I think we are all witn the virus now. We are having it, incubating, or pass it. And I mean ALL.

Any human is only 6 relationship steps away from any other human.

Whatever measures taken are too late.


Posted by: FMAN | Mar 13 2020 23:04 utc | 394

Article on

‘Where was your patient zero?’ Chinese official speculates AMERICANS may have infected Wuhan at army games & calls to ‘come clean’

Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Lijian Zhao has demanded US authorities reveal what they’re hiding about the origins of Covid-19, going as far as to suggest the coronavirus may have been brought to China by the US military.

This is explosive. China's Foreign Ministry is responsible, unlike Trump. If its spokesman is accusing the US of bringing Covid-19 to Wuhan, he must have some strong evidence. He offers a piece of evidence:

Pointing to a video of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) director Robert Redfield apparently admitting the US had several deaths from Covid-19 before they were able to test for it, Zhao called on the American watchdog to come clean in a tweet posted on Thursday.

My speculations. Zhao is presumably referring to the World Military Games, which were held in Wuhan just before the first case of Covid-19 in China. Maybe many members of the US team were infected, and they spread the virus to the city. If the US contestants were feverish already, their poor performance in the contests would be explained.

Posted by: Cyril | Mar 14 2020 5:51 utc | 395

Another article on

US to China: drop dead, we get our jobs back. China’s richest man to US: here, have 1 million masks & Covid-19 test kits

Ma managed to make the US government, which all but congratulated itself on the increased business opportunities presented by thousands of Chinese drowning in their own phlegm, look like bumbling (and cruel) idiots.

Posted by: Cyril | Mar 14 2020 5:55 utc | 396

@SharonM | Mar 13 2020 14:21 utc | 384

I'm entirely unconvinced that this virus should allow people to become cowards without criticism, and to give up more freedom

Did you ask anybody? Others have freedoms too.

I suspect that most people would choose to save their father if they only had to stay home for a few weeks.

But no, it seems you prefer to give them no option but to play Russian Roulette with the virus. How are you different from a dictator?

Posted by: Cyril | Mar 14 2020 6:38 utc | 397

China has reported 81,000 COV-19 cases, mostly in Hubei province. Hubei province has 58.5 million people. That is an infection rate of only about 0.15%. The first case was supposedly in November. China only cracked down in mid January (before all the Lunar New Year traffic). So something doesn't add up.
If truly that contagious (and Asians may be more susceptible because of increased ACE2 in their lung cells), a much faster rise in infected people should have been observed. More likely the infection rate in Hubei was much higher than determined by hospital/ doctor visits (the only way to tell will be looking at recovered people's antibody levels to the virus); children are largely spared bad affects though infected. If the infection rate was 10-fold higher (1.5%), their fatality rate (attributed to overwhelmed medical care initially) would be only 0.7% (as the rest of China). But if the infection rate was 40- 70%, as our "experts" keep predicting for the West, the fatality rate is about 0.02% like the flu, and mostly borne by those over 75 years old.

Posted by: michael888 | Mar 14 2020 16:36 utc | 398

Are we going to have the election this year and how long will state of emergency last? What will happen after the plague is over? Will our economy recover and if it does how long it will take? Is there a prospect of famine?

Posted by: Dave | Mar 16 2020 3:46 utc | 399

What really poses an existential threat to the mankind? Coronavirus or complete strip down of all our civil liberties? You are asking for toughter measures from governments world wide, aren't you? You better think twice. Before you make any funny comments whatch this and make up your mind wheather they've done enough or too much.

Posted by: Dave | Mar 16 2020 4:09 utc | 400

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