Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
March 11, 2020

Coronavirus - The Hidden Cases - Why We Must Shut Everything Down And Do It Now

The powers that be in our 'western' societies have decided to do nothing significant against the onslaught the novel coronavirus SARS-Cov-2 is now causing.

There will not even be an attempt to do like China or South Korea which have thrown all resources at stopping the spread of the virus while it was still possible. The 'west' now seem to be beyond that point.

The British Prime Minister Boris Johnson floated the idea to "take it on the chin" -  i.e. to do nothing to soften the blow the epidemic will cause. Chancellor Angela Merkel in Germany told her parliamentary group that 60-70% of all Germans will catch the virus. Most of them will fall ill with the Covid-19 disease the virus causes. At a 1% death rate this means that more than 500.000 Germans will die from it. Merkel did not say how she would try to prevent that. So far little was done by her administration to stop a further public spreading of the disease.

The Donald Trump administration has done its best to prevent an early detection of the outbreak in Washington State and likely also elsewhere:

As luck would have it, Dr. Chu had a way to monitor the region. For months, as part of a research project into the flu, she and a team of researchers had been collecting nasal swabs from residents experiencing symptoms throughout the Puget Sound region.

To repurpose the tests for monitoring the coronavirus, they would need the support of state and federal officials. But nearly everywhere Dr. Chu turned, officials repeatedly rejected the idea, interviews and emails show, even as weeks crawled by and outbreaks emerged in countries outside of China, where the infection began.

By Feb. 25, Dr. Chu and her colleagues could not bear to wait any longer. They began performing coronavirus tests, without government approval.

What came back confirmed their worst fear. They quickly had a positive test from a local teenager with no recent travel history. The coronavirus had already established itself on American soil without anybody realizing it.

The CDC and the FDA would not have that:

The message from the federal government was blunt. “What they said on that phone call very clearly was cease and desist to Helen Chu,” Dr. Lindquist [the state epidemiologist in Washington] remembered. “Stop testing.”

Our dear leaders are following the four stage strategy (vid):

In stage one we say "Nothing is going to happen".
Stage two we say something may be going to happen but we should do nothing about it.
Stage three: We say maybe we should do something about it but there is nothing we can do.
Stage four: We say maybe there was something that could have been done but it is too late now.

Yascha Mounk follows my argument and gives a reasonable advice on what we can do to make this as pandemic as survivable as possible. Shut everything down that can be shut down. Increase social distance as much as possible. Avoid all live social contacts wherever possible. Do it NOW!

One Tomas Pueyo explains in detail why we must do this immediately. (I checked his numbers and find no faults with them.)

Wuhan city in China was shut down on January 23. Twelve days later, on February 4, the newly confirmed cases in Wuhan reached their peak and declined from there. This gives us the time delay from an infection to become a diagnosed and counted case as the shutdown increased the social distance and lowered the number of new infections.

Each newly infected person itself infected two or three other persons. The growth rate was thereby exponential until they shut the city down. Had the city not been shut down on January 23 the numbers beyond February 4 would have gone higher and higher. That will happen in our cities and countries as our authorities are unwilling or unable to act as early and as decisively as the Chinese authorities did.

Source: Tomas Pueyo - bigger - full


This is one of the most important charts.

It shows in orange histograms the daily official number of cases in the Hubei province: How many people were diagnosed that day.

The grey histograms show the true daily coronavirus cases. Crucially, these weren’t know at the time. We can only figure them out looking backwards.

What this means is that the orange histograms show you what authorities knew, and the grey ones what was really happening.

On January 21st, the number of new diagnosed cases (orange) is exploding: there are around 100 new cases. In reality, there were 1,500 new cases that day, growing exponentially. But the authorities didn’t know that. What they knew was that suddenly there were 100 new cases of this new illness.

Two days later, authorities shut down Wuhan. At that point, the number of diagnosed daily new cases was ~400. Note that number: they made a decision to close the city with just 400 new cases in a day. In reality, there were 2,500 new cases that day, but they didn’t know that.

This means that we must all act now because today the numbers in Washington state and elsewhere are already exploding even though we do not know yet how high they really are. Those people who do get infected today will only become official cases twelve or more days from now when they will (hopefully) be diagnosed and counted.

The key thing to do now is 'social distancing'. As our governments do not act decisively to achieve that it is our personal responsibility to do that ourselves. Everyone must do this to the best of their abilities.

These numbers are not fantasies but today's reality:

Washington State is the US’s Wuhan. The number of cases there is growing exponentially.
Spain has very similar numbers as France (1,200 cases vs. 1,400, and both have 30 deaths). That means the same rules are valid: Spain has probably upwards of 20k true cases already.

In the Comunidad de Madrid region, with 600 official cases and 17 deaths, the true number of cases is likely between 10,000 and 60,000.

If you read these data and tell yourself: “Impossible, this can’t be true”, just think this: With this number of cases, Wuhan was already in lockdown.

China has defeated the epidemic in Wuhan. A few cases leaked and the effects now move into our societies. But our dear leaders are throwing the Chinese victory out of the window by not replicating early and decisively what the Chinese did. Many of us will have to pay for this.

Communists will shut down a city to prevent a deadly epidemic from going exponential. Our neo-liberal leaders only started to care when the Dow Jones went down. Don't expect them to call for a shutdown as that will cost their donor's some money. As mostly elderly people will die they are probably calculating how much money the pension funds will save.

Not shutting everything down guarantees that our health care systems will get overwhelmed. This will increase the death rate of the disease.

Tomas Pueyo as well as Yascha Munck mention the 1918 influenza pandemic and point out how much difference a shutdown made at that time:

As the disease was spreading, Wilmer Krusen, Philadelphia’s health commissioner, allowed a huge parade to take place on September 28; some 200,000 people marched. In the following days and weeks, the bodies piled up in the city’s morgues. By the end of the season, 12,000 residents had died.

In St. Louis, a public-health commissioner named Max Starkloff decided to shut the city down. Ignoring the objections of influential businessmen, he closed the city’s schools, bars, cinemas, and sporting events. Thanks to his bold and unpopular actions, the per capita fatality rate in St. Louis was half that of Philadelphia. (In total, roughly 1,700 people died from influenza in St Louis.)

Good luck to all of us.

Previous Moon of Alabama posts on the issue:

Posted by b on March 11, 2020 at 16:19 UTC | Permalink

next page »

All I can say is read this and learn,...

...good luck.

Posted by: Taffyboy | Mar 11 2020 16:29 utc | 1

Dr. Fauci, NIH, has come clean after so many years:

Dr. Fauci Warns "Worst Is Yet To Come": Coronavirus Is "10x More Lethal Than The Flu," Could Infect "Millions" Of Americans

with latest US Updates.

Posted by: Likklemore | Mar 11 2020 16:36 utc | 2

What was your first "The Coronavirus - No Need To Panic" about?

Posted by: Lubo | Mar 11 2020 16:47 utc | 3

Can't make this up. Assuming this policy seeks to avoid panic or is Trump in melt down?

Exclusive: White House told federal health agency to classify coronavirus deliberations - sources Reuters.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The White House has ordered federal health officials to treat top-level coronavirus meetings as classified, an unusual step that has restricted information and hampered the U.S. government’s response to the contagion, according to four Trump administration officials.

The officials said that dozens of classified discussions about such topics as the scope of infections, quarantines and travel restrictions have been held since mid-January in a high-security meeting room at the Department of Health & Human Services (HHS), a key player in the fight against the coronavirus.

Staffers without security clearances, including government experts, were excluded from the interagency meetings, which included video conference calls, the sources said.

“We had some very critical people who did not have security clearances who could not go,” one official said. “These should not be classified meetings. It was unnecessary.”

The sources said the National Security Council (NSC), which advises the president on security issues, ordered the classification.”This came directly from the White House,” one official said.
[.] (emphasis added)

Discussions on how to manage a raging virus is classified...thus hampering the flow of critical information !!!!!

National Security for the children,
Is it not time for joe and jane to panic?

There are 5 lamp posts on my short street; can be made available.

Posted by: Likklemore | Mar 11 2020 16:53 utc | 4

Lubo @3
B has always said when data changes, he changes his stance which is acceptable as him being a rational journalist.

Posted by: KD | Mar 11 2020 16:56 utc | 5

Lubo @ 3 is an ill-mannered guest who drops in to critique our host. So you see Lubo,

as data changes Breaking....

WHO Declares Coronavirus Outbreak a Pandemic LINK

Posted by: Likklemore | Mar 11 2020 17:07 utc | 6

Wow! This is the most bizarre headline I've ever seen in the 11 years I've been reading MOA. I'm baffled.

Posted by: SharonM | Mar 11 2020 17:13 utc | 7

Comment on Johns Hopkins twitter feed on the change from reporting U.S. county level COVID-19 cases to summarizing at the state level:

"With the increasing rate of cases being reported in the U.S. & worldwide and in order to retain timeliness & accuracy, @JHUSystems switched from reporting at the county level to state level. County-level details will be added back when it can be done in a timely, accurate manner."

Posted by: Trisha | Mar 11 2020 17:17 utc | 8

Thanks for this update, b.

Indeed it is past time for everyone to get the word out with the true perspective, that by the time this is visible it's already 10 times bigger than you can see. It's best to assume everyone everywhere is carrying the virus, including oneself.

I've been crying "SkyFalling" with close friends since we heard it was in the US, and started last week with colleagues and neighbors. It's a year of social distance and Zoom meetings. Not to mention lots - lots - of luck.

Posted by: Grieved | Mar 11 2020 17:17 utc | 9

Sorry to say but... social distancing is one thing but how do you get some food? are you ready to wash up everything you bought at supermarket and change your clothes each time you go out and your bedsheets every morning?
Better immunity is the way.
What I find really shocking is that governments should have informed people since january on just that, how to be stronger against viruses, when it is possible. And also, that there is a difference between open land and islands, and that cancelling all non necessary travel plans to islands should have been recommended if not implemented.

Posted by: Mina | Mar 11 2020 17:20 utc | 10

I'm in a neighborhood in Spain with at least two confirmed cases (one school closed today) but no one knows for sure because information is scarce and government tries to hide it as much as possible (local radio asked the main local hospital director about any number, patients or health workers on quarantine, already above 50, and he plainly said only the regional government is allowed to tell) to 'avoid panic' or whatever. And from what I see testing in this region is probably quite limited because it isn't one of the three other 'hot' zones which are already a week ahead of us. Other than gathering stupid amounts of toilet paper everyone acts like normal after weeks of 'no panic' 'it's a flu' propaganda. People won't listen, Cassandras (crazy fear mongering people) are ignored in the best of situations so there is very little I can do or could have done. They will only individually act as the corpses pile up.

Plenty of elders like in Lombardy. Hundreds may die here. As far as I see by the number of people coughing or even with fever it could be already quite widespread or it could be the flu. Probably it's too late and we are a few days from getting dozens and then hundreds of severe cases. Or then I hope there is a miracle and everything that has happened in Wuhan and Lombardy was a 'fake' and the slightly hotter local weather will kill it. Some level of government and a part of the health system is starting to react, slowly, but only with a 'contain' or 'slowdown' objective.

I don't have much hope here. Some will live, some will die. If you are somewhere else that is still farther from the peak you may have better luck acting now. But one can't change a society, not in days or couple of weeks.

Posted by: ThePaper | Mar 11 2020 17:21 utc | 11

@ Posted by: Lubo | Mar 11 2020 16:47 utc | 3

I think he meant "The Chinese" (don't need to panic). You know, because the Chinese have a government for and by the people.


I still don't agree about South Korea. Even though its government's heart is certainly in the right place, I don't think it has the tools to contain the epidemic. This is simply too much for a capitalist nation.


I've read somewhere India is in full denial - even though it has some cases registered. India is a capitalist nation. If it gets there, then you'll see the real bloodbath.

Posted by: vk | Mar 11 2020 17:22 utc | 12

If a three-species jump (bat-pangolin-human) = engineered, then, yes, "As mostly elderly people will die they are probably calculating how much money the pension funds will save." i would wager that your average neocon is just fine with a bug that kills lots of old people, as long as they don't end up as one of the dead.

Is it any surprise then that apparently no energy market analyst in US or Saudi did any kind of risk analysis as the end of the OPEC production cut approached that would have signaled a very big potential problem if Russia didn't play along?

Posted by: casey | Mar 11 2020 17:23 utc | 13

"The message from the federal government was blunt. “What they said on that phone call very clearly was cease and desist to Helen Chu,” Dr. Lindquist [the state epidemiologist in Washington] remembered. “Stop testing.”

I cannot understand that threat!
Can anyone explain this lunacy?

Posted by: Jpc | Mar 11 2020 17:23 utc | 14

The orders to stop testing and classifying discussion abet the killing of the public via the disease. There can be no other way to frame those actions AND those actions MUST be made public as far and wide as possible. I say those acts ought to be seen as High Crimes and impeachable. And we know Biden and his utterly corrupt DNC would act similarly.

Posted by: karlof1 | Mar 11 2020 17:27 utc | 15

Sorry to say but... social distancing is one thing but how do you get some food? are you ready to wash up everything you bought at supermarket and change your clothes each time you go out and your bedsheets every morning?

Posted by: Mina | Mar 11 2020 17:20 utc | 10

Korean model is that grocery are ordered (online or phone?) and delivered to the door, increasingly, people pick the grocery without physical contact with delivery people. Korean cities are quite dense from what I understand. Initially, shoppers abandoned big supermarket for neighborhood stores, neighborhood stores usually belong to big chains, like in Germany, so there are website for ordering groceries, but they are delivered over short distances.

Because having food delivered was already popular, a massive increase could be easy to handle. E.g. with more orders to the same address (high rise living is the norm), it takes less time for an individual delivery.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Mar 11 2020 17:29 utc | 16

merkel and her "globalist" masters wants germans to die.
The Kalergi Plan is real, even if "white genocide" is a malapropos term used by CrimeThinkers who understand basic mathematics and what trends are.

Posted by: Florin | Mar 11 2020 17:30 utc | 17

>classify coronavirus deliberations

Thank you Likklemore. This explains at least part of the chaos. There are very important military installations in Washington state. If a bunch of soldiers got sick, Uncle Sam would want to keep that hidden from The Enemy, although The Enemy probably knows better what is going on than the DC Dunces. Perhaps that is the reason for the idiotic secrecy.

Maybe Fauci has his mug on TV instead of his boss NIH Director Francis Collins because Fauci has "clearance" but Collins never bothered and never needed it until now.

Posted by: Trailer Trash | Mar 11 2020 17:35 utc | 18

In an attempt to find U.S. county level info now missing from the Johns Hopkins site, I visited the CDC COVID-19 page and scrolled down to the "COVID-19: Cases in the United States Reported to CDC*†" section, the notes are most informative:

* Data include both confirmed and presumptive positive cases of COVID-19 reported to CDC or tested at CDC since January 21, 2020, with the exception of testing results for persons repatriated to the United States from Wuhan, China and Japan. State and local public health departments are now testing and publicly reporting their cases. In the event of a discrepancy between CDC cases and cases reported by state and local public health officials, data reported by states should be considered the most up to date.

† CDC is no longer reporting the number of persons under investigation (PUIs) that have been tested, as well as PUIs that have tested negative. Now that states are testing and reporting their own results, CDC’s numbers are not representative of all testing being done nationwide.

In other words, the CDC has lost track of (or has decided to stop reporting) the total number of U.S. cases. They can't even accurately summarize the data they are getting from state reporting, check out the next section: "States Reporting Cases of COVID-19 to CDC*" where the numbers are now given in a range!

Looks like the "Center" has given way and the "Disease" is out of "Control".

Posted by: Trisha | Mar 11 2020 17:37 utc | 19

I was thinking that "no contact shopping" in USA could be more practical with people arriving at their big supermarket (or local store in a rural area) and picking up pre-paid boxes (could be just open boxes that could be left empty).

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Mar 11 2020 17:37 utc | 20

Pick the downside of 1. immediate strong 2. later strong.
It's a fire in the basement. One doesn't fuck around if you know how to deal with fires.

One explanation:

A Poem: Groundhog Day in the USA

It’s always Groundhog’s Day in the USA.
Aug '05 or Sept '17
Katrina or Maria
N'Orleans or Puerto Rico in the way
Repubs in power being "lean"
“Thoughts and prayers” time.
Where's Trump? On the green.

[If nominated I will not accept a Pulitzer for Poetry]

Posted by: stevelaudig | Mar 11 2020 17:38 utc | 21

MSM said back in January that the Chinese people would get pissed off and that there would be a reckoning for the Party and the government.
Screw that.
Western governments, pretty much all of them, are betraying and sacrificing their people. There will be a reckoning for them, and it will be hopefully very nasty and very violent. This is the year ultra-liberalism has to die across Europe.

Posted by: Clueless Joe | Mar 11 2020 17:40 utc | 22

Some times there is links here for articles on Washington post, Wall Street J, New Yourk Times Finan. Times or Bloomberg but many of those require subscription. Is there a way to read those while living in Europe?

Posted by: ARN | Mar 11 2020 17:41 utc | 23

About testing: who makes testing kits, how reliable they are, what is the cost?

Seems that in USA there is a shortage, and the normal behavior of providers of medicines and other medical goods is extremely rapacious. For example, Gilead company found a cure for hepatitis C. In the first year of sales, they got more than 5 billion dollars because of enormous prices they demanded. In about 2 years almost all urgent cases were cured, which is fine, and competition emerged.

Unless forced, these companies will provide nothing at cost, only with enormous markup. If you want to get, say, 10 miilion kits that hypothetically cost 250 dollars to make, they would charge at least 10 billion. Actually, the price/cost multiples have no limit at all, as in Gilead case. In the face of that, Administration should use emergency powers to impose cost controls. Manufactures could be threatened delicately to ramp-up the production if they are not willing to do it just from civic sense of duty. That would violate the most precious human rights, i.e. the rights of billionaires. Not the American way.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Mar 11 2020 17:48 utc | 24

ARN @ 23 Some sites use Javascript to shunt users to a subscription application. You can disable Javascript in Advanced Preferences of your Browser to circumvent this. Other sites are more sophisticated in redirecting to a server-based application that doesn't use Javascript, in which case you can't access it without subscribing AFAIK, although some will give you a few sample page loads for free.

Posted by: norecovery | Mar 11 2020 17:52 utc | 25

Don't shut everything down - this is only a really dangerous thing to the old and chronically ill, quarantine them! Everyone else can work, amazon deliveries could help the oldies live it out till a vaccine is found. That's what my grandma is going to do anyways.

Posted by: Ilya G Poimandres | Mar 11 2020 17:52 utc | 26

>“Stop testing.”
>I cannot understand that threat!
>Can anyone explain this lunacy?
>Posted by: Jpc | Mar 11 2020 17:23 utc | 14

I keep wondering, how does CDC have the power to tell an investigator what they can do with their own equipment? CDC does not regulate medical research or fund it very much. Most public funding comes from the NIH, which does tell people what they can and can't do with the money. The War Department (Pentagram) also funds medical research (especially Gulf War Syndrome) so maybe they are part of this story, the part that is still hidden to us.

Posted by: Trailer Trash | Mar 11 2020 17:52 utc | 27

I'm surprised that B is jumping on the media bandwagon when he's usually so disdainful of their one-sided propaganda. I suppose your perspective changes when it might be your own life on the line.

There are so many holes in the official hysteria but a big one is that the media aren't reporting the names of the victims. For example, here in Ireland, the health authority advises us to avoid people who contract the virus. However, they don't publish names so it's impossible to know if one has been in contact with a carrier.

Moreover, are the dead being autopsied to confirm the cause of death? How accurate are the tests? How many people have been diagnosed merely because of symptoms, rather than tests? (As happened in China.)

How many people have the virus but aren't - and won't get - sick because their immune system is strong? Many other questions but this circus seems overblown to me and other skeptical minds.

By the way, B says that Western governments are doing nothing but that's obviously not correct - hello, Italy?

Posted by: Barry | Mar 11 2020 17:55 utc | 28

> CDC’s numbers are not representative of all testing being done nationwide.

But those are the numbers that will be reported by the media. They don't even try very hard to hide the fact that their publicized numbers are deliberately wrong.

Posted by: Trailer Trash | Mar 11 2020 17:57 utc | 29

How is Hamburg doing? Any efforts to impede the spread of covid?

Posted by: hopehely | Mar 11 2020 17:57 utc | 30

Apparently the West will now end up with both a much lower stock market and a large covid 19 crisis. At some levels the government is taking this very seriously, at others not so much. People have to listen and become informed and the corporate media appears to be holding back and not helping.

I am not so sure that Trump derangement syndrome is not playing out in the media coverage. How does one stop a habit of three years of derangement in an instant? So much BS has been spun off over the last three years I suspect that it is carrying over into this crisis.

There are a myriad of local, state, and federal bureaucracies assigned to the task and it is impossible to create a perfect symphony of action across all levels.

The spread across the world seems to have come from tourists from China visiting various countries. Now that the eyes are on the Western countries no one is reporting on business in China; are the factories coming back online?

Posted by: dltravers | Mar 11 2020 17:57 utc | 31

b, time for a cooler head. Okay, as the Russian virologist said, a new virus is a 'meeting of strangers', so we have to get to 'know' each other first and this takes time. So, just as we got to 'know' the various flu varieties and built immunities to them, so too the virus gets to 'know' us and undergoes its mutations. After all, if it kills all its hosts, it kills itself.

The thing about 'bat' flu is that it seems to kill the old and the sick but leaves the majority with well, flu and I'm one of those old folk (I'm almost 75 and with a bunch of metal tubes in my heart but with a strong immune system, so wish me luck).

I think you're overreacting somewhat. Is it because it's only the so-called developed nations that have a high preponderance of older people that we're seeing this panic, or is because capitalism was on the verge of meltdown anyway? My feeling is that the barbarians have no compunction in sacrificing the old and sick. Social Darwinism Rules OK! And don't forget, the wealthy are mostly old too!!

I'm not trying to minimise the impact, but my feeling is that it has more to do with the falling rate of profit than the number of sick people.

See this article:

The original, full article is here:

Also, see this for background to the capitalist meltdown:

Bruce Aylward, Deputy DG of WHO, who is interviewed in this article makes eminent sense but his views have been universally ignored in the West (he spent time in China in February), I more than suspect because of the West's racist anti-Chinese attitudes, else why ignore virtually all of his recommendations?

Posted by: Barovsky | Mar 11 2020 17:57 utc | 32

I've read somewhere India is in full denial - even though it has some cases registered. India is a capitalist nation. If it gets there, then you'll see the real bloodbath.

Posted by: vk | Mar 11 2020 17:22 utc | 12

We will see. There were theories that the new virus is specific to the oriental race, but Iran and Italy contradict that. There is still a theory that meat eaters are more in danger. Otherwise, the subcontinent is quite use to calamities that kill many thousands per case, say, a heat wave. People of the subcontinent may be more adapted to heat waves than, say, Europeans, but the regular death toll is the reason.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Mar 11 2020 17:59 utc | 33

In Donald Trump we have a King Canute who actually believes the tide will obey his command to halt. So much for a thousand years of supposed Western progress.

Posted by: David G | Mar 11 2020 18:02 utc | 34

merkel and her "globalist" masters wants germans to die.

Posted by: Florin | Mar 11 2020 17:30 utc | 17

I do not know about the globalists, but wise experts keep alarming us about the fiscal danger created by untold millions of folks who retire, get sick every so often and stubbornly refuse to die, sometimes for decades. Just few days ago I have read again that The End is Near, in mere 10 years USA will run out of money to pay health costs of those oldsters. Germany has the same problem. If we could have a virus that specifically kills those above 65...

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Mar 11 2020 18:04 utc | 35

For the western welfare states it is a good possibility to take out elder and ill people. On the medium run they will save a lot of money! Cynical but true and simple.

Posted by: Mitch | Mar 11 2020 18:12 utc | 36


Previous Moon of Alabama posts on the issue:

The Coronavirus - No Need To Panic - Jan 25 2020
Novel Coronavirus Defies Conspiracy Theories As Data Shows Its Coming Decline - Feb 1 2020
The Epidemic Recedes - Number Of New Coronavirus Cases In Decline - Feb 8 2020
Coronavirus - Statistical Change Causes Confusion - New Case Count Continues To Decline - Feb 13 2020
Coronavirus - The Decline Of New Cases Continues - Economic Ripples Begin To Emerge - Feb 21 2020
As Virus Spreads Over The Planet Governments Are Slow To React - Feb 27 2020
Coronavirus - Its Time To Press Your Government To React Faster - Feb 29 2020
Coronavirus - Bad Preparation And Propaganda Increase The Onsetting Panic - Mar 6 2020
Is The Coronavirus Really More Dangerous Than The Flu? - Mar 9 2020

Posted by: poshpotdllr | Mar 11 2020 18:15 utc | 37

with the huge debt overload in usa/eu, war would be the traditional escape, cf hitler et al, but thermonuclear incineration has no appeal, but global pandemic would be a godsend: the collapse isn't our fault, blame nature or the chinese or god. global pandemic makes sense as a weapon though that would be a conspiracy theory. for those that survive simply burying the perpetrators alongside the victims will exhausting enough.

Posted by: bolasete | Mar 11 2020 18:15 utc | 38

If nothing else, this pandemic is laying bare, for all to see, especially here in the USA, the true meaning of "Disaster Capitalism".

Good luck all!!

Posted by: ben | Mar 11 2020 18:23 utc | 39

After seeing the statements by Trump and Merkel, it is clear they have decided to protect business before people.

The consequent outcome by this intend of mass assassination ( when they have the Chinese and South Korean, and even Italian, examples on how is to be done )would be a revolution, but due the pandemic, that would take the revolution dying from the starting point as many peers would get infected and most probably jailed, with which the possibility to die will increase, if more was needed.

At the first times of the pandemic, I commented this seemed all the way intended, amongst some other purposes, to save the pensions of the boomer generation now in their 50s-60s by killing them mostly. Increasing data and what falls already in the grounds of absolute criminal behavior by Western leaders comes to confirm this.

I am told that at some health organizations of world wide fame in Spain, professionals in their mid 50s-60s ( the majority of the fixed personel at the public health system right now ), and thus in the range of medium risk group, have been provided with a simple coat, an FPP3 mask, gloves a bit longer than usual, and skying like glasses, to go to the homes of the patients to take samples, in case it was needed at some point..... Transport of the samples has been suggested to be done in personal private cars...No head, hair or neck full coverage, nor boots, as it is being observed it is done in China and South Korea.

This is a clear neglecting of people´s and professional´s health and security. Of course, all this is favoured by the fact that getting sick with COVID-19 infection has been decreed to be considered a common illness in Spain at all effects for everybody, thus not professional in the case of health personel, otherwise, more tight and correct measures at gear protection level would be put in practice due the high indemnizations they would face after a fatal, or incapacitating ( in case of surviving ) outcome after acquring a bilateral lung fibrosis.

Posted by: H.Schmatz | Mar 11 2020 18:27 utc | 40

Seems the Reuters item linked @4 is being suppressed as it's immediately disappeared when I go there. My daughter works at a hospital in WVA and says they can't even get the correct masks. I once thought of Civil Defense included proper response to an epidemic, but apparently that's not the case if indeed it was once before. Also makes common sense that for proper Civil Defense Universal Healthcare would exist.

Posted by: karlof1 | Mar 11 2020 18:39 utc | 41

New confirmed cases for the past 10 days for countries and U.S. states with >100 new confirmed cases as of March 10:

Country/State   3/1   3/2   3/3   3/4   3/5   3/6   3/7   3/8   3/9  3/10

Italy 566 342 466 587 769 778 1247 1492 1797 977
Iran 385 523 835 586 591 1234 1076 743 595 881
Spain 39 36 45 57 37 141 100 173 400 622
France 30 61 13 81 92 276 296 177 83 575
Germany 51 29 37 66 220 188 129 241 136 281
US, Washington 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 267
Norway 4 6 7 24 31 21 39 29 29 195
US, New York 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 173
Denmark 1 0 2 4 0 13 0 12 55 172
US, California 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 144
Switzerland 9 15 14 34 24 100 54 69 37 117
Sweden 2 1 6 14 59 7 60 42 45 107

Posted by: S | Mar 11 2020 18:43 utc | 42

Bringing the immunity again, i would say (but i'm no doc) that if you live in a place which has a reasonable amount of sun (for vit. D), is not TOO POLLUTED (unlike China, Iran, Milan region and plenty of places in France thanks to diesel and pesticides), you should not panic.

Posted by: Mina | Mar 11 2020 18:47 utc | 43

Austria is about to enter the preliminary stages one can expect prior to a complete Coronavirus lockdown. The border to Italy has been completely closed. All outdoor events with more than 500 participants and all indoor events with more than 100 have been banned. Museums, marathons and countless cultural events have been either cancelled or postponed. Numerous flights by Austrian air carriers have been cancelled. As of coming Monday (16. March) all schools above the 9th form will be closed and studies continued on e-learning venues. All other schools and kindergartens will be closed down as of next Wednesday. The closures will remain in effect until after Easter. As you can imagine, this will have a major impact on overall production and the Austrian economy.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel stated very openly at a press conference held today that her government expects 60-70% of the German population to be infected by the Coronavirus, that no natural immunity to the virus exists and that no immunization against it is available yet. At this point, lacking any other benchmarks, we can only presume that the figures here in Austria will be similar. At this time the government is doing all it can to prevent the excellent Austrian healthcare infrastructure from being overwhelmed by slowing the spread of the contagion.

Although some store shelves are noticeably more empty than usual, there has been no panic buying and on the whole people have simply quietly preparing to self-isolate themselves and their families at home for 10-14 days. Almost no face masks are being worn here although shaking hands and the usual greeting hugs are no longer being undertaken either. We have all gone a bit “en distance” to each other, albeit with understanding smiles.

We all know a hard rain’s gonna fall before all this is over.

GreyRaven, Austrian Alps

Posted by: GreyRaven | Mar 11 2020 18:55 utc | 44

"The spread across the world seems to have come from tourists from China visiting various countries."
One British guy flew from the UK to Singapore for a conf late January and came back to France for holidays, infecting his British friends who are residents in France Haute-Savoie. He infected 25 persons all together, and these were among the first cases in France.
Europe and the US, being among the most 'frequent travelers' should have cancelled all conferences and business trips to Asia by the end of January. They did not because they knew it would provoke a panic among tourists and a crash for airlines.
Instead, they went the Trump way and believed "a miracle will stop it".

Posted by: Mina | Mar 11 2020 18:57 utc | 45

S @42--

Given the info supplied by b in his article, all Outlaw US Empire data must be dismissed as inaccurate and assumed to be orders of magnitude worse.

Posted by: karlof1 | Mar 11 2020 18:58 utc | 46

charlie chan sees many posts that today's elderly dying will save pension plans, apparently for when they retire. charle chan reminds them that Karma is real.

charlie chan says panic incited by media will cause more problems than virus and notes that all MSM and alternative media and governments spouting same should make one wonder.

charlie chan finds one voice of reason.

Posted by: charliechan | Mar 11 2020 19:04 utc | 47

New confirmed cases for the past 10 days for countries with >100 new confirmed cases as of March 10:

Country/State   3/1   3/2   3/3   3/4   3/5   3/6   3/7   3/8   3/9  3/10

Italy 566 342 466 587 769 778 1247 1492 1797 977
US 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 892
Iran 385 523 835 586 591 1234 1076 743 595 881
Spain 39 36 45 57 37 141 100 173 400 622
France 30 61 13 81 92 276 296 177 83 575
Germany 51 29 37 66 220 188 129 241 136 281
Norway 4 6 7 24 31 21 39 29 29 195
Denmark 1 0 2 4 0 13 0 12 55 172
Switzerland 9 15 14 34 24 100 54 69 37 117
Sweden 2 1 6 14 59 7 60 42 45 107

This is the same data as in my comment #42 above, but with all U.S. states collapsed into one row.

Note that China (including Hong Kong and Macau) has only 27 new confirmed cases as of March 10.

Posted by: S | Mar 11 2020 19:07 utc | 48

There is NO mass testing in Norway, ca 200 known infected as i type.
without knowledge how can they say how deadly this virus is?
without knowledge of the total numbers of infected and the true % of deadliness of the virus how can they declare it a pandemi?
I read a tweet yesterday that asked if this is a test to see how tyranical actions the populations will accept in the west, it seems more plausible every minute.
The media and politicans are willfully spreading FUD, frau mErkel is one example with her 70% of Germans will be infected..
The msm and state broadcaster here is FULL of FUD,, i will do my own thing and await real numbers and not risk exposure just to be safe BUT i will NOT panic or blindly believe the system and their damned FUD.
Luckily i guessed this would happen and bought a shitload off tp 😂

Posted by: Per/Norway | Mar 11 2020 19:12 utc | 49

@S #42, #48

In case anyone’s wondering where the heck is South Korea, they only had 35 new confirmed cases on March 10.

Posted by: S | Mar 11 2020 19:14 utc | 50

Trailer Trash@29

The main reason why the federal government is downplaying the epidemic is that the primary source (outside of Washington State) was infected attendees at the recent CPAP and AIPAC conferences. See my previous post at the last coronavirus thread.

In Iran a team of Chinese medical personnel has arrived and it appears that Iran is slowly adopting the Chinese approach and mobilizing the IRGC for this pandemic elimination task

From what I can see the Iranian medical labs are state of the art. I do not think that the US has the will, resources or capability to match the current Iranian effort.

Posted by: krollchem | Mar 11 2020 19:16 utc | 51

“It takes a remarkable force to keep nearly a million people quietly indoors for an entire day, home from work and school, from neighborhood errands and out-of-town travel. It takes a remarkable force to keep businesses closed and cars off the road, to keep playgrounds empty and porches unused across a densely populated place 125 square miles in size. This happened … not because armed officers went door-to-door, or imposed a curfew, or threatened martial law. All around the region, for 13 hours, people locked up their businesses and ‘sheltered in place’ out of a kind of collective will. The force that kept them there wasn’t external – there was virtually no active enforcement across the city of the governor’s plea that people stay indoors. Rather, the pressure was an internal one – expressed as concern, or helpfulness, or in some cases, fear – felt in thousands of individual homes.”—Journalist Emily Badger, “The Psychology of a Citywide Lockdown”

This Is a Test: How Will the Constitution Fare During a Nationwide Lockdown?

Posted by: fourfour | Mar 11 2020 19:18 utc | 52

charliechan | Mar 11 2020 19:04 utc | 47

Dear Charlie Chan,
could you pick up an argument for your claim and if so could you show it here?

Posted by: Hausmeister | Mar 11 2020 19:19 utc | 53

GreyRaven @44--

Thanks for your report! Good to hear Austria's acting responsibly relative to its neighbors!

Mitigating social distance will be much easier for some versus others. Those having jobs with close contact with the public ought to very seriously contemplate avoiding work or going as armed as possible with face mask, goggles, and gloves. Too many people can't afford to miss any work, and they will be the worst affected. I wince at my thoughts of all too many people tasked with disinfecting workplaces without being provided with the proper protective gear. I hope the actions of the Three Stooges--Trump, Pence & Pompeo--aren't mimicked.

Posted by: karlof1 | Mar 11 2020 19:21 utc | 54

"Italy’s medical community is mourning the death of the head of the medical association in the northern Italian region of Varese, Italy’s state-run ANSA reported Wednesday.

Roberto Stella, president of the Medical Guild of Varese, died Tuesday night in Como, where the 67-year-old was hospitalized for respiratory failure due to coronavirus, the agency reported."

I hope this crisis will be the final nail in the Brussels Eurocrats coffin. Let them pack and go home.

Posted by: Mina | Mar 11 2020 19:24 utc | 55

@karlof1 #46

Pueyo’s article doesn’t say that you should dismiss the official data as inaccurate. It simply draws attention to the fact that the official data is the data on diagnosed cases (confirmed cases), while the number of actual infections out there is much larger.

Posted by: S | Mar 11 2020 19:30 utc | 56

Posted by: karlof1 | Mar 11 2020 19:21 utc | 54

" I hope the actions of the Three Stooges--Trump, Pence & Pompeo......"

Sorrie to disagree, you forgotten the Two clowns-- (Laurel & Hardy) Bennie and Biden

Posted by: JC | Mar 11 2020 19:35 utc | 57

Austrian addendum:

As of this evening there are 246 confirmed coronavirus infections in this country. I find no mentions of any deaths here yet. In Tyrol hospital visitations have been banned. Visits to geriatric care centers have also been curtailed in many states, in order to protect the exceedingly vulnerable older people in their care.

For a good description of what the scene is like in Austria right now, see the comment above #52 posted by fourfour. I guess the word solidarity describes it pretty well.

I never thought it would have been possible.

Posted by: GreyRaven | Mar 11 2020 19:35 utc | 58

fourfour @52--

When I lived on Oahu in 1985, we had a major Tsunami Warning that shutdown the entire island for most of the day--Waikiki was like a scene from On the Beach. Fortunately, the warning wasn't needed, but it was heeded as Hawaiians know what Tsunamis can do and have done. But that was a different and much simpler/easier test from the current one. If the Outlaw US Empire practiced proper Civil Defense, the current test would be accomplished easily as primary concern would be for the public, not profit. But sometime back in the 1950s as secret tests were made on the citizenry, the moral basis for proper Civil Defense was jettisoned and we began the march to the situation we have today. The same mantra I've been pounding bears repeating: The actions we're witnessing and words we're hearing tell us the public's wellbeing is no longer a priority. In essence, it's been outsourced like everything else.

Posted by: karlof1 | Mar 11 2020 19:39 utc | 59

We are all going to get this virus. A small (very small) proportion will die. Unfortunately a (very) small proportion of a very large number of people is quite a big number in its own right.

Given that it is going to happen anyway, the best option is to manage the disease so that the pandemic happens slowly, to give the health system a fighting chance. Unless you want a much larger proportion of people to die of the disease, in which case do nothing...

(Look at what they do, not what they say.)

Posted by: UBrexitUPay4it | Mar 11 2020 19:48 utc | 60

JC @57--

Neither Sanders nor Biden have anything to do with the federal government's inexcusable response to this crisis. They could show leadership by cancelling campaign rallies and associated politicking, particularly now that WHO has declared the crisis a Pandemic.

Posted by: karlof1 | Mar 11 2020 19:49 utc | 61

More data coming out on that this is a coordinated effort and the plan is to leave the people to die....

When Rome asked to activate the Civil Protection for the supply of medical equipment no EU country replied. "Only China responded bilaterally." Tough piece by the Italian EU ambassador @MauMassari

Posted by: H.Schmatz | Mar 11 2020 19:53 utc | 62

I think the low number of dead compared to the number of cases in Austria, Germany and even South Korea simply points to the quality of their healthcare: they know what to give people to keep them alive. It is not a miraculous cure but all the anti-bacterial (on top of the anti-virals) and boosters that are needed to help people fight it.

Posted by: Mina | Mar 11 2020 19:54 utc | 63

The bill ( penalty ) for going to be tested and not needing it....10K...Obviously they do not want you going to test yourself...they prefer you staying at home waiting for your death or expecting the virus to go away, as he says Trump.

Avi Asher-Schapiro @AASchapiro A public school teacher who'd recently traveled to Italy, & was exhibiting some possible Coronavirus symptoms, went to the ER at @nyulangone —they didn't test her, but they did figure out how to charge $10,000 for the visit.

Posted by: H.Schmatz | Mar 11 2020 20:00 utc | 64

Korea reports 242 new virus cases, total now at 7,755

That represents almost double of yesterday's new cases (131). South Korea is failing.

There is suspicion there are at least two more clusters in the country outside the Daegu region. Moon's social-democrat government will have to bleed its coffers if it has to lockdown the entire country. Samsung et al will surely bill every penny for it.

Posted by: vk | Mar 11 2020 20:02 utc | 65

Το ΑRΝ @ 23

Most of those sites don't differentiate according to where you're dialing in but your payment status -- for pay sites.
If you encounter any site that does not provide news to overseas users, get a VPN and direct it to a US server.

But the real question is the following: considering that you can only get reliable news outside the US, many times in serviceable English outside the 5-eyes fraternity, why the devil do you want to continue reading US propaganda?

Posted by: Piero Colombo | Mar 11 2020 20:02 utc | 66

For what it's worth here is Canada's official response via a press conference today:

Two communities most at risk, isolated Indigenous and inner city homeless are definitely threatened:

"Public health officials have so far failed to develop a plan for homeless populations amid the global COVID-19 outbreak..."

Once again we learn - capitalism kills.

Posted by: John Gilberts | Mar 11 2020 20:03 utc | 67

You can't shut everything down just because several hundred thousand old sick people are going to die. It's unreasonable. Stop children from going to school and put an entire generation at a disadvantage so great grandpa can do what? Live another year with his heart condition and diabetes? A puss whipped nation. Don't think too highly of your military either. if this is the general level of courage in your society then your young men would make lousy surface combatants. The virus while contagious is not deadly unless you're very old or very sick or both.

Posted by: Paul Bogdanich | Mar 11 2020 20:25 utc | 68

@S #50
@vk #65

Weird. Johns Hopkins CSSE data repository says there were only 35 new confirmed cases in South Korea on March 10, while your link says there were 131.

Posted by: S | Mar 11 2020 20:29 utc | 69

The Chinese government announces that it will send one thousand respirators and two million masks to Italy, and the Chinese company Xiaomi joins in and gives Italy thousands of masks, while NATO "partners" remain silent

Why the rest of our European governments do not ask the Chinese for masks and respirators and instead there are health personel in Instagram, Twitter, Facebook and so on, desperatley asking the people who do not have symptoms to please not to wear masks otherwise there will be shortage a d asking people to saty home otherwise they and the system will collapse?

Posted by: H.Schmatz | Mar 11 2020 20:33 utc | 70

Posted by: Paul Bogdanich | Mar 11 2020 20:25 utc | 68

German Nazis thought more or less the same... extensive to certain races...

Reading you and the rest of scoundrels of the same ilk at certain blogs, I am increasingly sure the International Far-Right is a player in all this with Trump adminsitration and his associated military and intelligence retirees at the head.

I only hope they are the first to fall...Do not thinks you will die fast of this COVID-19...Recently released patient remained 18 days in ICU fighting to breath....

Posted by: H.Schmatz | Mar 11 2020 20:41 utc | 71

@Paul Bogdanich #68:

You can't shut everything down just because several hundred thousand old sick people are going to die. . . . A puss whipped nation. Don't think too highly of your military either.

What nation are you talking about? The author of this website is German. The commenters are from many different countries. And may I inquire, what country are you from?

Posted by: S | Mar 11 2020 20:46 utc | 72

@ Posted by: Paul Bogdanich | Mar 11 2020 20:25 utc | 68

Philosophically, that's a valid argument. The problem is the double standards: you cannot call China "authoritarian" when a few doctors die only for, the next day, you suddenly shift your gears to "people are disposable" just because it's your country's turn.

The West must admit it has been falsifying History by depicting Stalin, Mao, and other communist revolutionaries as genocide dictators. Issue an official apology, then correct the history books in their respective basic education programs.

Posted by: vk | Mar 11 2020 20:49 utc | 73

Joe Rogan had an interesting interview with epidemiologist Michael Osterholm yesterday. Lots of information about COVID-19.

One notable prediction: Osterholm lauds the Chinese for successfully working to control the outbreak -- but warns another wave of infection will follow upon workplaces and schools and shops reopening as the society begins returning to normal.

Posted by: Emily Dickinson | Mar 11 2020 20:52 utc | 74

If anything it is going to do this pandemic is putting people around the world in their places.

After their almost solitary effort, a message on humanism and class...

This is the message in the donation cargo from Xiaomi to Italy...

"We are waves of the same sea, leaves of the same tree, flowers of the same garden"


This, falls way too far from propaganda grounds. These are spontaneous moves by people who are accustomed to care for each other and hve not lost the snese of community, as we have do.

The other day, Chinese citizens were delivering masks for free in a subway station in Madrid...

Posted by: H.Schmatz | Mar 11 2020 20:53 utc | 75

If the west are going to do nothing much about Coronavirus be among the first to be infected before beds in ICUs are all occupied

Posted by: Ghost Ship | Mar 11 2020 20:54 utc | 76

Bloodbath at Wall Street today:

Dow Ends 11-Year Bull Market as Coronavirus Defies Economic Remedies

"Defies"? Only in the land of bouregois (neoclassic) economics.

The USA has been so long without a general strike that even its elites forgot how one looks like.

Posted by: vk | Mar 11 2020 20:54 utc | 77

With some notable exceptions, it seems clear the West has fallen/pushed into the moral abyss it created for itself by putting profit over people and choosing to do all the wrong things in response to the Pandemic. IMO, Bismarck would call Merkel's actions treasonous by not acting in Germany's best interest, which is to protect its #1 asset--its people. The same goes for UK, France, Canada, USA, Australia, New Zealand--that portion of the world driven morally blind by the Neoliberal disease--a Pandemic in its own right that WHO will never announce as such.

Posted by: karlof1 | Mar 11 2020 20:55 utc | 78

Paul Bogdanich #68

"Stop children from going to school and put an entire generation at a disadvantage"

What possible disadvantage could it be for children to have a temporary respite from that soul-killing indoctrination factory? Seems to me it could only be a good thing.

Oh, I get it, you're sore that your beloved neoliberal globalization looks increasingly on the ropes. That's literally the only point of view from which it's so critically important that children be incarcerated in your system schools, so they can learn to be more obedient and "competitive" cogs.

Yes, the Coronavirus and the much greater pandemics soon to come may throw some spanners into your works there.

Posted by: Russ | Mar 11 2020 20:57 utc | 79

Karlof01 - 78
Exactly. Most Western leaders are guilty of treason, and I hope they'll eventually be punished accordingly by their people. Mere removal from office won't be enough for these heinous scumbags.

Posted by: Clueless Joe | Mar 11 2020 21:04 utc | 80

Some interesting sidenotes to the slowly evolving panic pandemic in light of the US government's questionable delayed actions and its most peculiar recent decision to classify briefings as secret.

Whitney Webb @ thelastamericanvagabond :
Bats, Gene Editing and Bioweapons: Recent DARPA Experiments Raise Concerns Amid Coronavirus Outbreak

DARPA recently spent millions on research involving bats and coronaviruses, as well as gene editing “bioweapons” prior to the recent coronavirus outbreak. Now, “strategic allies” of the agency have been chosen to develop a genetic material-based vaccine to halt the potential epidemic.

Larry Romanoff @ globalresearch :
China’s Coronavirus: A Shocking Update. Did The Virus Originate in the US?

The Western media quickly took the stage and laid out the official narrative for the outbreak of the new coronavirus which appeared to have begun in China, claiming it to have originated with animals at a wet market in Wuhan.

In fact the origin was for a long time unknown but it appears likely now, according to Chinese and Japanese reports, that the virus originated elsewhere, from multiple locations, but began to spread widely only after being introduced to the market.

More to the point, it appears that the virus did not originate in China and, according to reports in Japanese and other media, may have originated in the US.

China Global Television Network article that was referenced in the globalresearch article.

Original ChinaXiv scientific article (pdf) that forms the basis of the claims.

I noticed that in recent days, the Washington Times and China Uncensored, both obvious USA propaganda outlets, published scathing denials of the Chinese claims, without providing any substance to their denials.

The claims about different strains of the virus and their respective distributions are interesting, but I was not able to quickly find good confirmation of the Chinese scientific article. I would like to know more,so anybody who can weigh in with more links is very welcome to do so.

Posted by: Lurk | Mar 11 2020 21:06 utc | 81

David G @ 34

You misrepresent King Canute - he was demonstrating to his toadies that he could not control the tide.
It could be that Trump is positioning himself to turn on a sixpence (dime for Americans) and introduce M4A as the only realistic way to deal with this crisis although I doubt it.

Posted by: Ghost Ship | Mar 11 2020 21:06 utc | 82

Stages of Failure

"Stage three: We say maybe we should do something about it but there is nothing we can do.

Stage four: We say maybe there was something that could have been done but it is too late now."

There is no meaningful difference between Stage 3 and Stage 4.

Posted by: Liberty Blogger | Mar 11 2020 21:06 utc | 83

I should have clarified, I'm an American living in the United States. That said, it bothers me. The absolute lack of any detectable level of courage or fortitude in the face of diversity (hard times) is just stunning. Old people die. Everyone dies over time. Viruses like the flu or SARS, or COVID-19 accelerate that process from time to time. It's just what viruses do. There is no cure for either death or viruses. If you want the biblical "Ye shall surely die."

The worst estimates of "excess deaths" in the U.S. is currently 480,000. Let's call it 605,000. 605,000 out of a population of 310 million is a death rate of 0.2%. Point two percent. If this was a deer heard and the managers were assured that the virus did no other damage and that the point two percent would be overwhelmingly composed of the aged and infirm they would consider intentionally introducing the virus to other herds that were too large.

The panic and cowardice is doing more damage than the disease. The level of fear and panic and the lack of dignity about a life process that you know or should have known was coming for as long as you were sentient is just appalling. The whole society is pusillanimous. There's just no other conclusion. It's outrageous compared to the whole of human history. No other generation in history panicked so much over so little.

Posted by: Paul Bogdanich | Mar 11 2020 21:09 utc | 84

What's missing entirely from the media representation are the many accounts that people with the virus might offer.

We hear of everything abstract, but find no trail of destruction reported among the recovered.

And squirt gun accidents have claimed more elderly people than the corona virus.

The media is in the midst of a complete 100% departure from reality with this one.

Imagine it's 1980. People just have the 'cold or flu', and are coughing and sneezing for a few weeks.

Posted by: Shellshk | Mar 11 2020 21:11 utc | 85

With the current not forced "auto-control" system in place in western countries to contain the spread of corona, some people say that what is happening is that many youngs in their 20's knowing they will not suffer the consequences, are taking extremely cheap planes and hotels and spreading the disease as hell; it is reported that many of them are not following the quarantines when test positive.

It is really difficult to control a pandemic wihout the army in the street that show the people how important is to avoid the total collapse of the health care system

Posted by: DFC | Mar 11 2020 21:11 utc | 86

vk @77--

Ellen Brown explains why the Fed responded as it did. Also, there's never been a genuine "general strike" within the Outlaw US Empire. The strike coming closest to that level was the Great Railroad Strike of 1877. 1877: Year of Violence is the best study of that happening. During the Depression, the most violent strikes occurred in Farm Country where open rebellion was widely feared/anticipated within the Farm Belt. Rebellion would certainly have happened if the POTUS had the same ideology as Trump, or any POTUS since Carter actually.

Posted by: karlof1 | Mar 11 2020 21:14 utc | 87

Quote: Paul Bogdanich #68

“You can't shut everything down just because several hundred thousand old sick people are going to die. It's unreasonable. Stop children from going to school and put an entire generation at a disadvantage so great grandpa can do what?”…


What an interesting sentiment. The German Nazis used to have similar ones.

When you turn 74 and the next SARS pandemic eventually hits you, I’ll visit at your hospital bed and watch you slowly asphyxiate with interest. As your breath shortens, your lips turn blue and I see the fear of death in your eyes, perhaps I’ll remind you of the amazing arrogance you have expressed on this thread and ask you how you’re doing…

Posted by: GreyRaven | Mar 11 2020 21:15 utc | 88

Here two graphs:
Risk-factor of mortality for different groups of age:

How "CFR" and "IFR" are calculated:

Then this: The SARS-Cov-2 seems to have spread ftom the USA(!) - not China:

Posted by: Joerg | Mar 11 2020 21:16 utc | 89

I'm sticking to my guns: ignore the media fear porn, and go about your business. More people will die in Yemen and Syria each day going forward, and no one cares. wtf?

Posted by: Joetv | Mar 11 2020 21:17 utc | 90

no hope

Posted by: no hope | Mar 11 2020 21:20 utc | 91

What possible disadvantage could it be for children to have a temporary respite from that soul-killing indoctrination factory? Seems to me it could only be a good thing.

Posted by: Russ | Mar 11 2020 20:57 utc | 79

Yeah, and not only the children would benefit from temporary leaving most of the time useless school, ut they will benefit more from staying with their elders from whom they will learn quite more.

The orchestrators of all this, it seems to me that along with saving in pensions, they are trying to erase the memory of the Great War against nazism and fascism so that that facilitates them the imposition of a new nazi order .
No other way it fits to me the previousv efforts of the past year on rewritting history of WWII and now this pandemic which mostly kills elders and people who have any memory of the fights which dervied into the European welfare state.

In case you can understand Spanish, heard this...

Posted by: H.Schmatz | Mar 11 2020 21:20 utc | 92

If we could have a virus that specifically kills those above 65...

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Mar 11 2020 18:04 utc | 35

I guess you are on the young side. Those of us that are older than 75 must arrange their succession
and take a philosophical approach to an early death.

Posted by: CarlD | Mar 11 2020 21:21 utc | 93

While narrow interests of financial game may lead decisionmaking there is also the matter of how the situation is understood. If you see measures as a 'slowing down' and if you see no big difference in CFR between intensive care and no care at all then the reasoning can be considered a 'tough but not cynical' view.
Get it over with quickly. But the reasoning may also be a rationalization to suit interests and preconceived ideas. What is the difference in CFR between full care and no care at all?

Tomas Pueyo argues that it makes a very large difference. That with good care the CFR can stay between 0.5 and 1% while without good care CFR is between 3% and 5%. With numbers for hospitalization of 20% and intensive care of 5% I'm convinced that is a reasonable estimate.

Posted by: Tuyzentfloot | Mar 11 2020 21:22 utc | 94

Paul Bogdanich @83--

Thanks so very much for the outstanding example you gave of moral relativism. I was waiting for it to be broached. Clearly you don't value life as being Priceless--not even your own.

Posted by: karlof1 | Mar 11 2020 21:25 utc | 95

Somehow it is no surprise Milano was touched that bad. It is a huge world hub. Not only coz industry, fashion, but also its airport. To make a bit of money, Alitalia has started some years ago to offer cheap long distance flights by coupling an EU internal one with an intl one.
In 2019, Malpensa Airport handled 28,846,299 passengers and was the 20th busiest airport in Europe in terms of passengers and 2nd busiest airport in Italy in terms of passengers... and the busiest for freight and cargo, handling over 500,000 tons of international freight annually.

Posted by: Mina | Mar 11 2020 21:25 utc | 96

(This is what I wrote on Facebook this morning.)

The coronavirus epidemic is likely to turn into an unstoppable pandemic in the United States. Only a complete lockdown of the country could stop the virus.

When Wuhan was put under a lockdown there were only 830 COVID-19 cases in all of China. The United States now has 1052 confirmed cases and a daily growth rate of some 40%.

Any lockdown or quarantine is slow to show effects as there are some eleven days of infections not yet showing symptoms or diagnosed. In Wuhan the lockdown was highly effective in preventing new infections as the epidemic was eliminated in three weeks. Still the number of cases grew almost a 100-fold from under 830 to 67773.

My simple mathematical model says that the total number of infections corresponds to a 11-day growth at the current rate of growth. As the daily growth numbers vary, the "ten-day rule" says that ratio of total or expected cases to already diagnosed cases is the ratio of the number of cases today to the number of cases from ten days ago.

The number of cases reported in the USA by March 10th was 927. The number from February 29th was 24. This is a 38.6-fold increase in ten days.

The very latest number reported from the USA is 1052. Multiplying this by 38.625 gives a total of 40633. This is my estimate of the total number of COVID-19 cases in the USA if Wuhan-style lockdown and quarantine measures were implemented. Most likely it also corresponds to the number of people already infected.

For more on the mathematics, see my earlier post on Italy:


When Wuhan and Hubei were locked down on January 23, 2020 there were only 830 coronavirus infections in all of China. As of today there are 67760 cases in Hubei, almost a 100-fold increase! Yet the lockdown seems to have been effective as the epidemic is now over.

When northern Italy was put under lockdown on March 8, 2020 there were 7,375 cases in Italy, with a daily growth rate of 25%. From these numbers it is possible to estimate the total number of people in Italy already infected with the COVID-19 coronavirus.

The growth rate in China on and around January 23rd was about 50% per day. Going from 830 to 67760 would take about 10.86 days. This number is related to the average incubation period.

Staring from 7,375 with a daily growth rate of 25% for 10.86 days results in a 11.28-fold increase or a total of 60,613 83,215 cases.

This estimate is based on the assumption that the daily growth rate at the time of the lockdown was twice as high in China as in Italy. Italians may have already prepared for the coronavirus and practiced better hygiene. The figure 50% for the Chinese growth rate is a rough estimate. Averaging over 10 days before and after January 23rd gives a daily growth rate of 47.6%.

It may also be that the growth rates are similar. Comparing the Italian and Chines numbers side-by-side gives similar growth rates for the same number of patients, the main difference being the Italy started the quarantine and lockdown 6 days later and with nine times the number of cases. If so, the total number of COVID-19 cases in Italy may reach half a million.

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Mar 11 2020 21:27 utc | 97

If this was a deer heard and the managers were assured that the virus did no other damage and that the point two percent would be overwhelmingly composed of the aged and infirm they would consider intentionally introducing the virus to other herds that were too large.

Posted by: Paul Bogdanich | Mar 11 2020 21:09 utc | 83

Stop trying to fix it, that you make it worse...

We are neither a herd, nor we are deers.

Obviously you are a nazi troll...Ukraine?

Posted by: H.Schmatz | Mar 11 2020 21:28 utc | 98

"Thanks so very much for the outstanding example you gave of moral relativism. I was waiting for it to be broached. Clearly you don't value life as being Priceless--not even your own."

I served in Alpha Company 1st Battalion 5th Marines. Look it up. Once you accept the fact that there is no hope and you are going to die, the headaches go away, you sleep better and in my case miraculously survive. The thing that gripes me is according to the science you can't stop COVID-19. According to that German Study released a few days ago for the first 5 to 12 days the infected show no signs of infection, no cough, sneezing, fever, nothing. Yet by the act of breathing they expel aerosol virus loads 1,000 X SARS levels. Everyone is going to get this no matter what you do. You can't prevent it from happening. People are going to die. All I'm saying is when faced with that situation why don't Americans apply the same resignation to death that they are happy to live with when it's American policy that is killing a million Iraqi,s, or Syrians, or Yemenis or Libyans? It's simply outrageous. These people are cowards. It's just as simple as all that.

Posted by: Paul Bogdanich | Mar 11 2020 21:34 utc | 99

Mr Bogdanich. Having read your first comment I was going so suggest you alter the prism through which you view the world but then several people emptied their chamber pots over you, (I can't imagine what they had been eating) People are getting very prescriptive about alternative viewpoints. Anyway, someone posted this earlier and I copy.
The four stage strategy, crisis management.

Posted by: Zarate | Mar 11 2020 21:34 utc | 100

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