Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
March 23, 2020

Coronavirus - How To Lift Lockdowns And Why We Should All Wear Masks

While the U.S. president continues to blame China there are more signs that the outbreak started elsewhere:

Some question why Italy was caught off guard when the virus outbreak was revealed on Feb. 21.

Remuzzi says he is now hearing information about it from general practitioners. "They remember having seen very strange pneumonia, very severe, particularly in old people in December and even November," he says. "This means that the virus was circulating, at least in [the northern region of] Lombardy and before we were aware of this outbreak occurring in China."

The sudden appearance of a new type of coronavirus against which no one had any immunity led to a sudden rise of cases with severe respiratory difficulties. These require up to three weeks of ventilator support and intensive care.

Our healthcare systems are not capable of working under such an onslaught. If they get overwhelmed other cases which require intensive care will fall by the wayside. The number of unnecessary deaths will then start to explode.

The only possible way to avoid such an outcome is to minimize contacts between humans to stop the mass infection wave.

When the first wave exploded in Wuhan city the authorities ordered a complete lockdown of the city and of Hubei province. That happened on January 23. Twelve days later, on February 4, the number of new cases in Wuhan started to decline. The Lombardy region in Italy ordered a lockdown on March 9. Twelve days later Italy reported its first decline of new cases.

While the hospitals in Wuhan as well as in Lombardy were for a while overwhelmed the further outbreak has been slowed if not stopped.

(Wuhan is notorious for air pollution but Lombardy is not. The theory that air pollution has contributed to the high number of severe cases in both regions is thus not confirmed.)

Lockdowns have been ordered in several European nations and in several U.S. states. Boeing and other companies have shut down their production facilities in Washington state. Many people are now unemployed. The situations in various states look dire.


bigger

But the lockdowns work and they will limit the rise of the current wave.

The question is now when to lift a lockdown. While twelve days are sufficient to stop an explosive rise in new cases they are likely not sufficient to stop the wave. Another two weeks of lockdown is probably required. After that the restrictions will have to be lifted in several steps to keep the number of new cases manageable.

It may well be necessary to prevent mass events from happening for several more months. Some travel restrictions are also likely to be kept in place. People will be able to get back to work but large meetings should be avoided. Using masks should become a social requirement (see below).

Instead of locking down whole populations one will have to find and lock down clusters.

The health care system needs a new branch that can take care of Covid-19 cases without the danger of infecting other patients. China established local fever clinics where people with flu or Covid symptoms can get tested. Those who have Covid must then be isolated for two weeks to prevent further infections. Their contacts must be actively traced. People who have come into near contact with an acute infected person are part of the cluster and must also be tested and isolated. Those who are put into isolation must be paid. Otherwise some will avoid it and will continue to spread the virus and disease.

These measures can be intensified or relaxed as needed. Their purpose is to keep the number of severe cases manageable. If the system works well we might even be able to eradicate the virus.

We now have tests for the antibodies people develop while they have the disease. Mass production has started. These tests will allow us to identify those who are no longer in danger when they handle a Covid patient.

There are signs that children often have carried the disease but were little affected by it. The antibody tests will show how many of them are already immune. The larger their number the better for the rest of us. Mass testing also seems to show that there are a quite large number of asymptomatic cases among grownups who nonetheless infect others. We should find some measures to prevent that.

A current paper published in Lancet argues that everyone should wear a mask:

Evidence that face masks can provide effective protection against respiratory infections in the community is scarce, as acknowledged in recommendations from the UK and Germany.

However, face masks are widely used by medical workers as part of droplet precautions when caring for patients with respiratory infections. It would be reasonable to suggest vulnerable individuals avoid crowded areas and use surgical face masks rationally when exposed to high-risk areas. As evidence suggests COVID-19 could be transmitted before symptom onset, community transmission might be reduced if everyone, including people who have been infected but are asymptomatic and contagious, wear face masks.

Wearing a mask helps with protecting oneself but even more importantly helps to protect others. One might be carrying and spreading the disease without knowing it. We all release fine droplets when we speak, sneeze or cough. Masks prevent one's droplets from spreading out.

The viruses are quite small and could slip through the pores of a mask. But the droplets they are carried with are larger and are less likely to come through. There are also suggestions that one virus alone is less likely to do harm and that a significant load of viruses is required to start the disease.

There are some cultural consideration that support the call for everyone to wear a mask:

The contrast between face mask use as hygienic practice (ie, in many Asian countries) or as something only people who are unwell do (ie, in European and North American countries) has induced stigmatisation and racial aggravations, for which further public education is needed. One advantage of universal use of face masks is that it prevents discrimination of individuals who wear masks when unwell because everybody is wearing a mask.

There is currently a shortage of professional masks and those that are still available are needed in our hospitals.

But one can also use a scarf, sew oneself a mask or make one's own masks from household items. None will be as good as a professional masks but all will help to keep the number of cases down.

Viruses do not like heat. Soap breaks them apart. One can clean a mask by heating it in an oven at 70°C (160°F) or by washing it with soap.

---
Previous Moon of Alabama posts on the issue:

Posted by b on March 23, 2020 at 18:00 UTC | Permalink

Comments
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typo:
vote: vote
prepare people for work = prepare ppl forf worth

Add: about testing they now say they have been unable to make more testing kits because the "reactive" substances needed for preparation have been outsourced and delocalized and it takes time to get them

Posted by: Mina | Mar 24 2020 10:16 utc | 201

So as I supposed doing anything is too hard when one has the option of interminable bullshitting. sad but entirely predictable. All this endless rabbiting on about things few who are rabbiting have any real grasp of is easier than trying to bring about change. For too many sad sacks the summation of the thousands of 'bernie' posts come to mind - plain pitiful. May as well stay the victim all yer life full of if onlys & no yes but we sorted thats.

There are few sights less appealing than a grown adult sitting on his/her arse whining about what could/should have been or covering their ineptitude with endless arcane discussions they don't really comprehend, but google nevertheless.

Posted by: A User | Mar 24 2020 10:17 utc | 202

Posted by: Alexander Unzicker | Mar 23 2020 19:32 utc | 29

Kontaktinformationen am Ende
https://www.moonofalabama.org/about.html

No Higgs Particles? Hmmm??

Posted by: Kontaktinformation | Mar 24 2020 10:19 utc | 203

Vile racism against asians now,

https://twitter.com/sumtingwong2019/status/1241221293837406208

Commited by another minority, sickos.

Posted by: Zanon | Mar 24 2020 10:35 utc | 204

Not letting a crisis go to waste: the Democrats are trying to add to the latest stimulus bill a provision that payments made to people be made via "digital wallets"; i.e., virtual bank accounts held by Federal Reserve banks (or by such non-member banks as the Fed banks permit), to be administered by the Treasury Dept and the board of the Federal Reserve.

Cashless society, with the added dubious "benefit" of completely entrenching the Federal Reserve system. Dig this - this Federal Reserve digital wallet is based on an idea put forward by supposed progressive rebel, Rashida Tlaib.

Of course, the stimulus checks could simply be directly deposited into people's bank accounts the way the IRS sends refunds now, and physical checks mailed out to people without bank accounts and this would be much easier and way faster than creating a whole new system of "digital wallets", which the Democrats' proposal suggests should happen no later than Jan. 2021.

I'm not going to attempt a link in this comment, but you will find a lot of articles if you do a google search for Democrats propose digital wallets or some similar wording. Naturally, all the articles I have read about this are very positive in their review of this idea because we are really just that stupid.

Posted by: teri | Mar 24 2020 10:37 utc | 205


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https://www.jpost.com/International/Israeli-doctor-in-Italy-We-no-longer-help-those-over-60-621856
This is serious
Posted by: DFC | Mar 23 2020 19:41 utc | 31
"
It is dramatic and it is reported that way. But considering "the JP more generally this article has all the familiar ingredients I know from our top local tabloid. To not start babbling about all the present "news values".

********

This interview should go viral (pun intended). Highly intelligent and knowledgeable;
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=E8ilxBYZHvQ
Posted by: PJB | Mar 23 2020 19:41 utc | 3


Now isn't that the perfect symbiosis of expertise in finances and medicine we need right now. Impressive CV.

http://the-studio-reykjavik.com/

Posted by: vig | Mar 24 2020 10:43 utc | 206

A User @ 203 says:

So as I supposed doing anything is too hard when one has the option of interminable bullshitting

hey, maybe when they cut the internet people'll get down to brass tacks.

Posted by: john | Mar 24 2020 10:44 utc | 207

Posted by: blues | Mar 23 2020 19:06 utc | 26

I'm taking similar to you Blues as in a susceptible age. Except that I'm doing 10,000 D3. Taking the K also to deal with the high D3 dosage. If the throat starts to get sore increase the D dosage straight away. High dose Vit C does well against pneumonia should you get to that stage. Notice the Chinese were using C intravenously as well, that would be why.

I also add in Olive Leaf Extract, read Dr Morton Walkers book for more info. It basically, according to Upjohn Pharmaceuticals, kills almost any virus (including standard corona)and bacteria, plus yeasts, molds and parasites. Doing 4 capsules per day. 2 is generally enough to be preventative, like the D3 up the dose if feeling unwell. Be careful though as if too many microbes floating around in your blood you can get flu like symptoms for a day or two, killing it all off releases cytotoxins, start low and build and drink lots of water.

Don't know much about this one but an acupuncturist recommended Chaga mushroom, also looks promising.

Most here believe in vaccines, despite that they lower your native immune system, I prefer to stay with what was designed by a vastly greater intelligence that pharmaceutical companies.

Posted by: Rancid | Mar 24 2020 10:46 utc | 208

It bears repeating that it makes a lot more sense to look at the people taking advantage of the pandemic than it is to discuss whether someone might have triggered the pandemic intentionally. It avoids a lot of unfalsifiable thinking which is best avoided, and when nasty people/organisations pounce on a golden opportunity it doesn't matter much whether they were actually involved in triggering that opportunity.
Conspiracy territory: when distrust encounters hidden machinations of power you enter territory where it is hard to get useful thinking done because so much stuff is unfalsifiable by nature. People talk about conspiracy theorists as if the problem is with the people but their main problem is that they don't understand the nature of the territory.

Posted by: Tuyzentfloot | Mar 24 2020 10:54 utc | 209

STOP PRESS
Mike Pompeo Admits COVID-19 Is a “Live Exercise” ???
Trump Retorts “I Wish You Would Have Told Us” ???

Go to: https://www.globalresearch.ca/secretary-state-mike-pompeo-admits-covid-19-live-exercise-president-trump-comments-i-wish-you-would-have-told-us/5707223

Posted by: kiwiklown | Mar 24 2020 10:55 utc | 210

A User
Six months down the track, duopoly voting majority may perhaps be looking to do more than vote for the duopoly, but that's only a maybe. It will take a lot of hardship to pull them away from reality tv...meantime, your comment fits in here like another brick in the wall. Another pissed off human having a winge.
Doing something... seems to me a group with structure, a plan and an endgoal is required and this got out to the wider public. End goal needs to be something that would be accepted by the reality tv watching public and step by step plan to get there...
We havn't hit bottom yet, still a long way from it. Any plan will have to match the situation at the bottom and the way back. But first you gotta get two people to agree on a plan.
We are headed into the unknown. Like the first stages of the collapse of the soviet union.
Putin when asked about Gorbochov and Yeltsin he just says "everyone knew we had to change but nobody knew how to go about it."
Here is somewhat different because in the mainstream types, nobody knows we have to change.
We are likely to go through something akin to the soviet nineties and only then will the population know we need to change because the old ways failed.
Best to play it by ear until that point. Nothing can be done untill the wider population realise that all they have known has failed and a different start must be made. I doubt too many of our countries will have a Putin that can pull us out of the shit. And by a Putin, I mean somebody that has a vision acceptable to the majority and comes to be trusted by the majority and also has the nous and ability required.


Posted by: Peter | Mar 24 2020 10:59 utc | 211

212 was me. not sure what happened to the rest of my user name.
Another thing is five-eyes. That must be broken up. Yanks and Brits control Oz Canada NZ through that. Kick the fucking yank and brit spooks out. That has to be first and foremost before any change can occur.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 24 2020 11:06 utc | 212

Well, it has been clear for a while that b has been pushing the Chinese agenda - from the very beginning. The Chinese are never at fault, are they?

What are the chances that such a new virus - and you can calculate how often a new one gets formed and starts getting transmitted to a broader population - arises in two distinct locations at the same time? Close to impossible for a natural virus to evolve simultaneously at two (or more) places. Either it evolved naturally and if it did, the epicentre of the epidemic is vastly more probable than any other place to be the source of the virus (i.e. bat eating Chinese or the Wuhan wetmarket). Or it was developed in a lab somewhere and distributed there. You can't disallow the possibility of it being an accidental leak - and the chances are highest for that possibility given that the only BSL4 lab in China researching infectious viruses is in Wuhan.

As for people connecting past "strange" pneumonia or vaping illnesses to the virus... puhleesee - had it been that the epicentre and the first explosion of the epidemic would have been Lombardy or New York.

And of course, those questioning why Lombardy was so affected - don't forget that Northern Italy has a large Chinese population (a few hundred thousand - around 300k legally and who knows how many more illegally). The Chinese are the ones working in Italian factories so that the luxury goods we pay good money for come with made in Italy and not made in China signage.

It is really surprising that b is still pushing the point of view that nearly everyone in the world might be responsible but definitely not the Chinese!

Posted by: ancientarcher | Mar 24 2020 11:09 utc | 213

And this shit where PMs swear alliance to the English monarch rather than to their own countries.
Fuck me - under the reality tv we're still as medieval as the Saudi's.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 24 2020 11:09 utc | 214

I read one speculation, i can not say whether it is plausible or not. The claims are

1. After Chinese outbreak (which was announced internationally back in 2019) Russia and China introduced quarantine and screening in calm and thought out way. It worked okay and no dwellers of Russia got infected for weeks to come.

2. Things changed after Italian outbreak - just few days later infected citizens were found in Russia.

2.1. Obvious explanation was that despite declared pandemic Russians failed to do proper screening vs Italy, because they focused all anti-CoVid resources in Far East and mostly overlooked other borders, and because human traffic through western borders (most populated western Russia and/or popular USA+EU+Africa+Turkey destinations) was very much larger than relatively few people crossing Far East borders (locals of less populated far eastern parts of Russia and heading towards less popular Far Eastern destinations).

2.2. Conspirologic explanation offered was that Italy had different strain of CoVid. While Chinese strain was allegedly "optimized" for mongoloids, Italian one allegedly was Caucasian-optimized thus overwhelmed screening and isolating measures Russia trained with China, which were sufficient for less infectious (for mostly Cucasian Russians) Chinese strain, but not for Italian strain.

3. Then it is claimed Russian military allegedly saw those two strains as part of the same military activity. When Chinese strain from China failed to spark pandemic - the "reinforces" were sent to the offensive loosing impulse: Italian strain from Italy. Allegedly that was the reason Russian sent military doctors to the Italy. Not because those were trained to work in harsh and disconnected conditions, but because Russian MoD got very interesting to investigate the situation in "epicenter".

Posted by: Arioch | Mar 24 2020 11:13 utc | 215

Some ppl are more deemed to be protected than others, obviously
https://twitter.com/ken_macarthur (crowded London tube today).

By the way, i ve heard that the big NATO, US/EU exercise was going on at a reduced, 45 % capacity, and using additional online meetings.

Posted by: Mina | Mar 24 2020 11:16 utc | 216

Arioch
When it come to infectious diseases military medical will have better training and preparation for epidemic type events. Historically, epidemics often occur during wartime due to conditions.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 24 2020 11:30 utc | 217

Women in Iran and many other Muslim countries do wear face masks, as a matter of local culture.

1. Did it somehow inhibited disease spread? (judging by Iran, it does not seem so)

2. Will men agree to wear facemasks "like those women do" ?

Questions....

Posted by: Arioch | Mar 24 2020 11:52 utc | 218

> But one can also use a scarf, sew oneself a mask

Opening the link we see:

Disclaimer: This mask will not protect you from COVID-19 Coronavirus.

Well, d'uh....

Posted by: Arioch | Mar 24 2020 11:55 utc | 219

The following pre-published, non-peer-reviewed study suggests that the infection rate fatality, i.e. the rate of deaths compared to the infected population is around 0.04-0.12%. This conclusion comes about because the authors suggest that the cases are extremely underreported by the factor 30, suggesting that in reality 2 Million people in Wuhan were affected.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.12.20022434v2

Posted by: Mapa | Mar 24 2020 12:00 utc | 220

From what I have read, transmission is mostly via droplets of snot rather than viruses free floating. All it takes is something to filter out other peoples snotlets before it goes down your airways.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 24 2020 12:06 utc | 221

Philip Giraldi has a new piece, "Denying medicines to Iran and Venezuela is a crime against humanity"

Less politely, I call that an own-goal in geostrategic terms, just like the murder of Soleimani.

MAGA forevah !!!

Posted by: kiwiklown | Mar 24 2020 12:06 utc | 222

The four most important questions are - - -
Is Your govenment trying to kill you ?
Over the next year where will your food come from ?
How will you get money to pay for food ?
How will you protect your food and money ?
Answer those questions then we can afford the luxury of worthless debate !

Posted by: Mark2 | Mar 24 2020 12:09 utc | 223

Social distancing is all about staying away from snot and spittle. Any sort of mask will help keep that out. Masks can be washed and dried or put in an oven at or above 70C to sterilise.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 24 2020 12:09 utc | 224

What are the chances that such a new virus — and you can calculate how often a new one gets formed and starts getting transmitted to a broader population — arises in two distinct locations at the same time? Close to impossible for a natural virus to evolve simultaneously at two (or more) places. Either it evolved naturally and if it did, the epicenter of the epidemic is vastly more probable than any other place to be the source of the virus (i.e. bat eating Chinese or the Wuhan wet market). Or it was developed in a lab somewhere and distributed there. You can't disallow the possibility of it being an accidental leak — and the chances are highest for that possibility given that the only BSL4 lab in China researching infectious viruses is in Wuhan.
Posted by: ancient archer | Mar 24 2020 11:09 utc | 214

Why two places? What exactly am I missing in your argument archer? What are those two places?

Both possibilities you suggest lead back to China? Correct?

The difference being in the bio weapon case they designed it and it escaped from the laboratory with a 65% chance or with a 35% chance, they what? Sacrificed a couple of thousand citizen of their country to create worldwide chaos to take over power?

Posted by: vig | Mar 24 2020 12:13 utc | 225

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 24 2020 9:36 utc | 196

Focussing on China was what allowed the virus to sneak in from OTHER countries.

But what if they also got the memo from the Exceptional Indispensable Nation to let the case load build up sufficiently to proclaim a lockdown?

Stranger things have been known to happen for that brutish animal called The Five Eyes.

Posted by: kiwiklown | Mar 24 2020 12:14 utc | 226

I have been in southern China until 2 days ago. In China I was able to read MoA, but unfortunately not to post.

One of the most amazing aspects of the Chinese handlink of the Covid crisis (aside from the hospitals built in days) is their tracing mechanism. Everywhere in China you see barcodes like these. Everywhere you go in public places you have to scan one of these codes with your smartphone, using the wechat social media application. The one on the right is for arriving, the one on the left for departing. Getting on a bus, entering or leaving the metro, entering public buildings or important places, in every case you are obliged to scan the bar code. There are also many other local precincts such as a small street, a residential building, small business etc which I imagine might in some cases be locally motivated and not always enforced, but otherwise if you don't have the means to do the scan (eg no mobile data) then your id details and the time will be recorded manually.

I believe this is an absolutely central aspect of how the Chinese were able to trace contacts of infected persons so effectively and quickly and thereby isolate sources of further infections before clusters develop. If you are at the same point as an infected person for just one second, they can effectively trace the contact - retroactively - and check for possible infection. Remember the long incubation period before symptoms: tracing of casual contacts is an almost impossible task without these barcodes.

As Chinese American commented a while ago, I don't think most people in the West have the capacity to understand how the Chinese have coped with Covid so effectively, let alone emulate it. There are so many cultural and social differences which lead to a totally different context. Everywhere there are volunteers helping, especially students. People cooperate to an extent that in the West is unimaginable.

I must also say that I was constantly amazed at how helpful and kind many people were to me! It was an amazing experience, which I learnt a lot from.

There were several comments asking about mutations of the virus - there are zillions, it has constantly mutated. The 'hammer and dance' link posted by b has a graphical representation of them - there are several main branches, each of which divide into many minor strains. (I am not sure how reliable that figure is though - so many things in that article are wildly inaccurate, fanciful, and wildly unrealistic - probably some parts of that article are fairly well researched while other parts are just crap).

Chinese research has also shown there are <https://tass.com/world/1126529>two major strains,/a> of Covid-19, Type L and Type S. In the first week in Wuhan Type L was more common, but later substantially reduced in frequency. Type L is far more virulent and deadly than Type S. It would perhaps not be surprising if Type L is an important factor in Italy.

Posted by: BM | Mar 24 2020 12:15 utc | 227

Mapa 221

Written by excellent young researchers funded by the US.

KM acknowledges support from the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) KAKENHI Grant Number 18K17368 and from the Leading Initiative for Excellent Young Researchers from the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sport, Science & Technology of Japan. KK acknowledges support from the JSPS KAKENHI Grant Number 18K19336 and 19H05330. GC acknowledges support from NSF grant 1414374 as part of the joint NSF–NIH–USDA Ecology and Evolution of Infectious Diseases program.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 24 2020 12:19 utc | 228

.

The Non-Directive?

Within (msm non-suppressed screaming
headlines) "climate"...
of anti China
of anti Russia
of anti Iran
of anti Syria
of anti Venezuela
more than innuendos discourse....

For neo-liberal propaganda for "elite" theft of money.
And entitlement.
And, especially, viz. those of varying skin hue,
are we not all 'leaves from the same tree'
subjected to deliberate divisiveness by the criminal few?

And taking into account
the usual MIC-MO and its
marketing and commodification of Lies
e.g. viz. 9/11 & Kennedy & Cuba.
viz. Soleimani & Vincennes & MH17
viz. Vietnam, WW1 & Ireland
viz. Tasmania & Kenya & Capetown
viz. Skripal & viz. numerous 'false flags'
& proxy-deceptions.
viz. Hiroshima & viz. Nicaragua.
viz. Palestine. viz. Afghanistan.
An endless list.

Is there possibly a likelihood that
a so-called public pandemic might be contrived
and faked, to intimidate and divide?
Would such fakery seem feasible?
To an intelligent human being?

..

Posted by: molloy | Mar 24 2020 12:21 utc | 229

Sorry about the messed up TASS link, here it is corrected.

Also on applying the Chinese methods in the West - a major hurdle is the long history of lies and exploitation of the people by Western governments, so that most people (rightly) don't trust their governments and are cynical of their objectives. That will unavoidably make everything significantly more difficult to implement. Most people in China have a very positive view of their government - and are very supportive of the measures taken to control the virus. That makes a big difference!

Posted by: BM | Mar 24 2020 12:26 utc | 230

BM 228
Thanks for your post. Tracking and so forth was something I was wondering about. China will be able to move back somewhere near business as usual with the virus control system it has in place.
In the west here.... we will be just stumbling in the dark for the next year or so. Lockdowns and fookups and lockdowns.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 24 2020 12:27 utc | 231

kiwiklown 227

For Australia - I haven't been following local news much but I am not sure that the OZ government has been trying to put the blame on China. I know they have bean following how China have dealt with the virus, an oz minister being the only western rep when a Chinese minister was giving out information on what they had done and found..

"But what if they also got the memo from the Exceptional Indispensable Nation to let the case load build up sufficiently to proclaim a lockdown?"

Could be but to destroy the economy with a lockdown to what purpose... We do whatever the yanks want, they set up bases wherever they want. I'm more inclined to think that if their is a design behind what is happening rather than plain old bureaucratic stupidity, then the design would most likely be aimed at herd immunity but gradual so hospitals can cope.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 24 2020 12:41 utc | 232

China will be able to move back somewhere near business as usual with the virus control system it has in place.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 24 2020 12:27 utc | 232

About mid-March I noticed a sudden change of atmosphere. Before that in the city where I was all restaurants were closed except for takeaways. Suddenly one day (one assumes via directive) many restaurants were allowing people in to eat there. By a couple of days later the atmosphere was much more relaxed, jovial and sociable, street restaurants were full in the early evening, people were socialising in the streets (but still wearing masks). All directly related, of course, to the verifiable status of the virus. The tracing mechanisms, of course, remain enforced.

Posted by: BM | Mar 24 2020 12:44 utc | 233

Posted by: BM | Mar 24 2020 12:15 utc | 228
"I don't think most people in the West have the capacity to understand.... the Chinese.... People cooperate to an extent that in the West is unimaginable."

The Chinese are an old, old, old civilisation. They remember famine, war, flood, earthquake, pestilence, locusts, fire, invasion.... and so they cooperate, give consent to be led / organised.... they understand and contribute to the common good.

But they have been labelled as docile, repressed, subservient, etc... all manner of insults by Western "thought-leaders" for so long that the typical Westerner today cannot but reflexively repeat their thought-leaders' racism.

First you denigrate your victims.... makes it easier to squeeze the triggers on your rifles. Then, when they have driven you out of their land (think Mao), you go on denigrating them, make up false "history" books so you don't lose face.... helps when you next war on them too.

This chasm was started 100+ years ago when Europeans plotted to steal other people's lunches. China was weakened with good old British opium, and the original Coalition Of The Willing (to steal, that is). India was robbed blind, even paying a "salt tax" for salt laying on Indian soil. LOL.

Posted by: kiwiklown | Mar 24 2020 12:48 utc | 234

Posted by: ancientarcher | Mar 24 2020 11:09 utc | 214

Really?well the only blaming China are the yankees..china virus...stealth enemy...just to put sheeps heads towards China while the virus spreads all over the country..because the first thing that yankees hate now is to see how China reacted to the problem.
This virus comes from Maryland not from Wuhan..The taiwanese showed it.anyway...
About situation in Lombardy the main reason is the private health care system that during these years replaced the state system..that's what you get now..the spread in Italy has nothing to do with chinese.
Then yes all make mistakes..it's in the human essence..but what the us outlaw empire does are not mistakes are acts of war.

Posted by: LuBa | Mar 24 2020 13:04 utc | 235

@Petri Krohn #156
You might note that the persons in question took aquarium chloroquine phosphate. We also have no idea what dosage they took, but the "small amount" they used could easily have been multiples of what is recommended.
Chloroquine phosphate is much stronger than hydroxychloroquine; rheumatoid arthritis sufferers are advised to take 2-200mg hydroxychloroquine tablets vs. 1-250 mg chloroquine phosphate tablets.
1 teaspoon is 4200 milligrams, for example. They could easily have taken 10 or 20 times recommended dosage.

Posted by: c1ue | Mar 24 2020 13:09 utc | 236

BM 234
Thanks for your first hand reports. I really appreciate them. Eating out after work is really a thing in China. My daughter and I stayed at a motel well off the western beaten track in Guangzhou.
We would eat at a different restaurant each night. They lined the street corner below the motel. factory workers would pour in from across the road at knockoff time. Lot of laughter and talking.
We didn't speak a word of Chinese and nobody there spoke a word of English. Daughter was embarrassed because she reckoned everyone was looking at us. I didn't notice. Was too busy trying to work out what plate or dish I should be using. Green tea I thought tasted a bit crappy. Not my thing, but the green label beer went down well. Had to pick restraints that had menu with pictures. Had a book that translated words and I had beer and coffee bookmarked. Hard to find coffee in China. But the people I just found them good people. Though like everywhere some bad. Got conned at the train station. I thought he was the driver from the motel to pick us up. Charged about ten times the rate and then managed to swap his counterfeit for my good notes. Locals were trying to point out what was wrong with the notes. I couldn't pick up the difference but to them it stood out. Running them through the tester set of the alarm. Still got them somewhere as souvenirs. I would like to get back over there sometime, but the way I'm going I doubt that will happen.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 24 2020 13:15 utc | 237

Putting nCOV mortality in the US, thus far, in perspective:
Estimated days for nCOV deaths to reach normal flu levels

[Normal flu deaths per 10 million people is around 1000]
Washington: 18 days
New York: 6 days
Louisiana: 9 days
New Jersey: 11 days
Georgia: 8 days
Connecticut: 19 days
Oregon: 21 days
California: 23 days

Note that the US has ~45,000 nCOV cases at this point. The percentage of people with regular flu is far, far higher than those with nCOV now and extremely likely for the next 3 weeks.

If we look at world stats:
nCOV world, deaths per 10 million population by country

You'll note that Spain and Italy have already hit normal flu levels, but at infection rates of 0.12% and 0.07% (vs. normal flu infection rate of 15%, give or take). This doesn't mean the mortality rate for nCOV is 100x of normal flu; it is certain that not all nCOV infected have been found in those countries.

But it does give a flavor for why nCOV is a serious issue: many more people will die because of nCOV than flu, if no measures are taken. If the hospital system is overwhelmed, that number increases even more.

Right now, I'm watching US and Germany deaths and serious case numbers.
Serious cases as percent of overall known cases
Germany has done significant testing but has a ridiculously low serious case and death rate. Is it because beer and bratwurst make them immune? Is it because Germany has the highest numbers of hospital beds per 1000 population, lagging only behind Japan, South Korea and Russia? Is it because it is still really early? Germany is the 3rd oldest nation, so it isn't because they're young...
The US, in turn, has had very little testing outside of New York, but has enacted lockdown much earlier vs. other nations.
We'll see in about 2 weeks.

Posted by: c1ue | Mar 24 2020 13:21 utc | 238

Read this and make of that what you will:

The Brit-ish government from its website is saying the Virus is not the Problem
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infectious-diseases-hcid


Posted by: Jayne | Mar 24 2020 13:21 utc | 239

Problem with these lockdowns is that they are causing people to hoard, which drives up prices. This becomes an event akin to the oil shocks of the seventies and could easily lead to runaway inflation. Shortages, higher prices could lead to social unrest, increasing crime, and dwindling value of savings and available cash to spend. That means a major contraction. The damage would be great--much greater than the virus itself will inflict. Therefore, we must consider that the best policy is that everybody goes back to work.

Posted by: Peter Duveen | Mar 24 2020 13:22 utc | 240

@Nuff Sed #199
Italy has socialized medicine. It also has elderly being triaged away from emergency room care.
While I believe socialized medicine is 100% necessary, I don't see the nCOV response as being a socialized medicine issue so much as a pandemic handling issue.
Now, if you want to talk about the economic impacts of lockdowns on the wealthy vs. the poor, that's a very different story...

Posted by: c1ue | Mar 24 2020 13:24 utc | 241

***Extra***

Das Vadanjia Toverish @MoA:
- Putin dons hazmat suit to visit hospital treating coronavirus patients in Moscow (VIDEO)
24 Mar, 2020 13:19
Get short URL
Putin dons hazmat suit to visit hospital treating coronavirus patients in Moscow (VIDEO)

Follow RT onRT

Путин в Коммунарке: Костюм и респиратор для президента pic.twitter.com/QkrBA3UYwp
— Дмитрий Смирнов (@dimsmirnov175) March 24, 2020
-

Дмитрий Смирнов
@dimsmirnov175
·
9m
Путин в Коммунарке: Костюм и респиратор для президента
-
https://www.rt.com/russia/483958-putin-hazmat-suit-hospital-coronavirus/
https://twitter.com/dimsmirnov175/status/1242439080836771841?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

X-

Posted by: Veritas X- | Mar 24 2020 13:25 utc | 242

Danny @110 only intelligent comment here.

Posted by: Goldhoarder | Mar 24 2020 13:30 utc | 243

@kiwiklown #235
If you've ever seen a group of tourist Chinese attacking a line, you'll never think mainland Chinese are docile again.

Equally, there is very little of mainland Chinese social habits that is congruent with Chinese historical mores.

One of the reasons why the CCP maintains such a strong grip in the internet (Great Firewall of China) is that the population is incredibly naive and easily manipulated. I could only shudder to imagine what would happen if it were exposed to full US/Facebook/Twitter.

One example: a few years back, there was a scandal where children's cough medicine in Central and South America was poisonous. It turns out that the reason was the normal additive was replaced by a cheaper, but poisonous variant. The reason wasn't just greed - the Chinese person who did it was just smart enough to understand that the 2 products were chemically very similar; he drank a bottle of the cheap stuff to test - when it didn't hurt/kill him, he did the label switch. Of course, the cheap stuff is dangerous mostly to children...
So it wasn't an evil act of malicious harm, it was due to just the right amount of ignorance.

Posted by: c1ue | Mar 24 2020 13:33 utc | 244

A roundup of the ways by which Asian countries (and Israel) are using largely mobile based tracking to handle nCOV:
source

On Saturday via Twitter, Milo Hsieh, a journalist and American University student in Taiwan, said his tracked phone ran out of power at 0730 and by 0820 local time, after being unable to reach him, the police showed up at his door.

...

Singapore has reportedly used people's digital wallet transactions for contact tracing. The country also recently rolled out a mobile app called TraceTogether that captures records of in-person encounters based on Bluetooth signals between devices running the app.

Hong Kong, meanwhile, has imposed a 14-day quarantine on inbound international travelers. To comply, visitors must wear wristbands with a number that gets added to a mobile phone app for tracking their movements.

...

China, which shut down the city of Wuhan to deal with the outbreak, has broad state surveillance capabilities that includes data from telecom operators and mobile apps. It recently deployed a system called Health Code. Users sign up via Alipay or WeChat and receive a color code based on travel history that changes based on potential risk and virus exposure.

Israel last week also authorized its security service to provide cellular location for coronavirus contract tracing.

Remember how I've repeatedly said that all mobile devices are constantly broadcasting location? And posted links on how US police have started using geofence warrants? - all long before nCOV?

Posted by: c1ue | Mar 24 2020 13:36 utc | 245

Peter Duveen @ 241
The best way to avoid catching this virus, is to completely isolate yourself from it. To do that you need addiquite food stored for the period of time your hoping to isolate for. That way you have zero chance of catching the bug, or spreading it to others.
Hope that explains it for you ! Stay safe.

Posted by: Mark2 | Mar 24 2020 13:38 utc | 246

c1ue @242
The triaging/priority business has long been a talking point against socialised medicine. But it is false. Setting treatment priorities, rationing, whether by using wealth, age, race or previous condition as criteria arises only because the Healthcare system is nor designed to expand and contract as demand for it does.
It would not take much, for example, to educate thousands of ordinary citizens in nursing and other medical arts, in much the same way as we maintain reserve military capacity in the form of militias and trained Reserve units-ready to be mobilised in times of crisis.
As Mike Davis pointed out the medical system is currently run, as are factories and markets, on a 'just in time' principle with the number of beds and intensive care units available to deal only with average demand. Epidemics over run these systems quickly making rationing, generally through the market, and consequently increased mortality inevitable.

Posted by: bevin | Mar 24 2020 13:55 utc | 247

c1ue: is it because they used intravenous vit C and a boosting cocktail that other countries do not use? or that they did not use anti-inflammatories from the beginning?

Posted by: Mina | Mar 24 2020 13:55 utc | 248

c1ue 237

Chloroquine is the pure compound, the active ingredient. Phosphate I believe is the binder to make the powder into a pill. 500mg chloroquine phosphate pill contains 300mg of chloroquine.
This is about all I can find on hydroxychloroquine "Hydroxychloroquine, a less toxic derivative of chloroquine," https://www.nature.com/articles/s41421-020-0156-0


Treatment Of Uncomplicated Malaria
Adults
800 mg (620 mg base) followed by 400 mg (310 mg base) at 6 hours, 24 hours and 48 hours after the initial dose (total 2000 mg hydroxychloroquine sulfate or 1550 mg base).

https://www.rxlist.com/plaquenil-drug.htm#dosage

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 24 2020 13:55 utc | 249

The most likely outcome is that the so-called Western nations will enforce some sort of "world gov" to replace the UN and its veto rights (you see who I mean, Russia and China having been not too complacent lately).
On top of that our elites will have manage to persuade most of the populations that full-tracking is better for them: no more anonymous posting, Google transhumanist dreams come true who wants his chip?
Those (I mean the states, for at that stage it is clear that for individuals within Western societies it will be too late) who will not accept to be part of the flock will be outcast/banned/axis of evil, pick up one.

Posted by: Mina | Mar 24 2020 14:01 utc | 250

@159 tedo1

Thank you tedo1:) And what you wrote can't be said enough:

"Suddenly the corporate mainstream media have become the epitome of truth, honesty and integrity."

Posted by: SharonM | Mar 24 2020 14:13 utc | 251

Mina @251:

The most likely outcome is that the so-called Western nations will enforce some sort of "world gov" to replace the UN ...

This is interesting speculation and is somewhat consistent with PeterAU's thoughts about the 'snap back' of UN sanctions on Iran possibly leading to a split in the UN.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Mar 24 2020 14:14 utc | 252

Posted by: c1ue | Mar 24 2020 13:33 utc | 245

I was agreeing with BM, who said most Westerners cannot fathom the unimaginably cooperative Chinese.

You and I do not belong in the "most Westerners" grouping because you are a well-read person, as I am too.

You may notice by now that I distinguish Westerners, eg. Americans, between their leadership, whom I despise as people with no integrity / honour, and the citizens, whom the grouping, "most Westerners" will apply, and with whom I do not have a quarrel with, my point being that their leaders are engaged in a hybrid war against China in their (deplorable) names. LOL

Then, too, western leaders, led by the US, are carefully distinguishing Chinese citizens from Chinese leadership, using the dog whistle "CCP".

Posted by: kiwiklown | Mar 24 2020 14:31 utc | 253

@BM 228
thanks for the report from China!

I heard similar things from a close friend there. In addition to universal use of the tracking app, he mentioned also spot checks of people's temperature (in effect will force everyone to check their own possible symptoms daily, to avoid being caught if nothing else), squads of people going around spraying/wiping all doorknobs keypads touchscreens etc. Did you see that too?

Applying these ideas to our culture (I am in the US most of my life) I have to admit that to my mind, some of this sounds a oppressive. Such a level of unified effort would be necessary if the goal is to eradicate the disease.

But that is clearly not the expectation or goal outside of a couple of Asian countries. rather it is to spread it out in time. for that, a temporary reduction in the connectedness of the real- world contact/proximity network. In particular to disconnect the highly connected nodes (e.g., nodes with <10 connections have negligible impact on the "speed" of the network, when there are ones with 100 or 1000 as is common in cities.) Thus I don't feel that Chinese style response is appropriate. What euro countries are doing is good, except they should have done it a lot sooner. (and the lack of fast testing in a number of countries is completely disastrous, won't belabor the point)

Posted by: ptb | Mar 24 2020 14:43 utc | 254

@Jayne | Mar 24 2020 13:21 utc | 240

The British government from its website is saying the Virus is not the Problem
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infectious-diseases-hcid

I read the announcement quite differently. I think the definition of a HCID is to do with how it is to be treated by health professionals - by quarantine and contact tracing. To be an HCID the disease needs to be extremely rare in Britain, and the measures taken are to eliminate it completely. The announcement is just acknowledging that COVID19 is past that stage - we've moved from a strategy of elimination to 'lowering the curve'.

Posted by: kgbgb | Mar 24 2020 14:47 utc | 255

@bevin #248
I assume you mean the US health care system is "just in time".
Note I clearly said socialized medicine is necessary - and also that the Italy situation is that of handling a pandemic as opposed to a normal capacity issue.
There is no question in my mind that the multi-decade Italian austerity plays a factor as well.
Overall, the situation is complex yet simple. Complex because there are factors beyond profit and health that go into the outcomes/capability of a health care system, but simple in whether the health care system is focused on maximum population benefit, maximum benefit for a few (rich) and profit.
Lastly, the notion that socialized medicine is all about lines - quite frankly, my personal experience with medicine in the US vs. other countries is that the waiting times are longer in the US outside of operating rooms. And even then, the waiting times are at home vs. at a clinic or hospital.

Posted by: c1ue | Mar 24 2020 14:50 utc | 256

Bailout Mission Accomplished.

New priority: get the 'debt slave' dumbasses back to work.

=

Yesterday morning: US Federal Reserve circumvented Congress to provide 'bailout'/stimulus to US business.

Yesterday afternoon: Trump starts talking about returning Americans to work saying US economy "wasn't built for this" (for non-use).

This morning Trump tweets again about returning Americans to work.

=

Will American people ever see 'helicopter money'? I'm doubtful. That bright shiny thing was just part of the CRISIS! con job.

Pelosi and establishment Democrats conveniently demanded that extraneous measures be added to the Congressional bailout/stimulus bill, prompting a no strings attached bailout from the Federal Reserve. Pelosi isn't complaining about the Fed's circumvention.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Mar 24 2020 14:53 utc | 257

@Mina #249
As far as I know, nobody is using widespread vitamin C intravenous treatments. Boosting cocktails, ditto.
Note also that the vitamin C treatments are for very late stage (4) sepsis treatment as proposed by the trials to date.
The talk about intravenous vitamin C in any other context is pure agitprop.
Please post a link if you see actual widespread medical practices deploying these treatments.

Posted by: c1ue | Mar 24 2020 14:53 utc | 258

Just to add some more levity Simon PEGG and Nick FROST made a SHAUN OF THE DEAD Quarantine PSA and it's perfect.

Posted by: TJ | Mar 24 2020 14:56 utc | 259

@Peter AU1 #250
The couple in question were using fish medicine. It wasn't in tablet form. It might not even be chloroquine phosphate - it might be chloroquine straight.
I also can't vouch for the medical quality of said fish medicine - it might well have all manner of additional unsafe for human additives.
And again, 1 teaspoon is 4200 mg. The recommended dosage for rheumatoid arthritis is 1-250mg chloroquine phosphate tablet = 150 mg of active ingredient. The couple in question could easily have taken 30 or more times this recommended dosage.

Posted by: c1ue | Mar 24 2020 15:00 utc | 260

Posted by: kgbgb @ 256

I'm reading it that the level of lockdown we have in place is like hitting a needle with a sledge hammer. We have a case of flu - yes... We have had bad viruses before. Also, noting that the PTB have not been advocating how to actually 'boost' our immune systems, but have been providing us with every symptom under the sun to scare people to think they might actually have it -- as opposed to a bad cold or even a bad case of flu. This flu hits the vulnerable, and obviously not just the elderly, but not to the level we need Marital Law. What is happening is the government (globally it would appear) is 'killing' small businesses, jobs, where people will lose everything. IMHO this is far far more even above and beyond just 'lowering the curve'.

Just hope b has been taken over by the BORG.


Posted by: Jayne | Mar 24 2020 15:03 utc | 261

Posted by: Jayne | Mar 24 2020 13:21 utc | 240

Yes, suggesting, haste, indecision, maybe? Curious to read both that Corona isn't classified as HCID and then read the definition, or six criteria. Out of onlyoe washeavily debated, still is. But why isn't it defined as HCID, but the present response fits the last criterium? That's curious. Interesting. Thanks.

Forget that page and move on to:
https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/public-health-england

The country monitors are helpful, you can check on regional data. I can over here. What about friends wherever?
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14

Posted by: vig | Mar 24 2020 15:04 utc | 262

@kiwiklown #254
Sorry for not more clearly reading, and agreed with your points.
It is always easier to point the fingers elsewhere than to fix the problems.
The bloody shirt, or in this case, the snotty shirt, works great.

Posted by: c1ue | Mar 24 2020 15:04 utc | 263

Jane et al

Out of onlyoe washeavily debated, still is.

Tried to shorten here: Out of six only one was heavily debated, still is.
And failed. Too hasty?

Posted by: vig | Mar 24 2020 15:06 utc | 264

Oops NOT been taken over by the Borg!

Posted by: Jayne | Mar 24 2020 15:06 utc | 265

@253 Jackrabbit

It doesn't appear to me that this manufactured crisis will bring on a one-world-government, simply because the initial reaction of China was based on this "new flu" being a bio-weapon. You can't create a one world government when China, Russia, Iran and Venezuela are distrustful enough of the U.S. and British regimes to think that they used a bio-weapon on China.

@240 Jayne

I make of it that MOA was wrong and OffGuardian was right;)

Posted by: SharonM | Mar 24 2020 15:15 utc | 266


I know this is off topic but, according to the the World Socialist Web Site, the stimulus package that has just propelled a two thousand point rise in the Dow calls for the hundreds of billions allocated for businesses to be distributed solely at the discretion of Treasury Secretary Steven Mnucnhin. He has the power to waive prohibitions against stock buybacks. The names of the companies being provided funds will not be identified. If true, one man is going to have an unprecedented amount of power with no oversight whatsoever. He will be able to save Trump's ass and enrich his friends at taxpayer expense and do so in secrecy. The airlines and companies such as Boeing that have enriched their executives by using their profits to buy their own stock can do so once again. I hope this report is not accurate.

Posted by: David | Mar 24 2020 15:17 utc | 267

follow up on medicinal mushrooms.
i suggest you start with turkey tail:safe (no poisonous look alikes), easy to process (throw a handful into a pot of water, boil then simmer for an hour or two--if you get colored water you have good medicine), available in temperate woods/parks.

here are some links. you can follow up with more:
https://www.davidwolfe.com/turkey-tail-mushroom-benefits/
https://practicalselfreliance.com/turkey-tail-mushroom/

Posted by: migueljose | Mar 24 2020 15:19 utc | 268

Wow -- this thread sure grew fast!

I wanted to mention, the instructions for making masks linked to in the article above, point out that they will not stop the Covid19 virus.

Adding a layer of air-dried anti-bacterial wipes (which are made from non-woven fabric) probably will stop the virus.

And here is a pattern for masks:
(go here and scroll down)
https://www.craftpassion.com/face-mask-sewing-pattern/

Posted by: AntiSpin | Mar 24 2020 15:20 utc | 269

NOx attach to the lungs and cause irritation, especially leading to asthma. This is why manufactured cigarettes, where the tobacco is steeped in potassium nitrate to prevent extinguishing, cause more asthma and lung cancer than roll-up's or pipe tobacco. When a cigarette is ‘drawn’, the tobacco glows white hot, breaking the NO2 in the air into nascent half oxides (NOx). The same happens in the cylinders of diesel engines due to the high combustion temperatures. The (un) joke is that as petrol engines become more efficient their combustion temperatures rise towards that of diesel engines (thermodynamics).

Therefore smokers and those exposed to NOx are more likely to suffer worse effects of Covid19 because their lungs are sensitised.

The virus has a fatty coating. By washing hands in surfactants (soap) it dissolves the coating and the virus turns inside out and that kills it. Also that the virus is heavy, restricting the range it can be thrown by breath etc (hence 2m+).

That is my 2 pence worth.

Well done b and everbody.

Posted by: Old Engineer | Mar 24 2020 15:20 utc | 270

Posted by: Jayne | Mar 24 2020 15:06 utc | 266

Well, strictly I prefer the blob. ... it's less easy to define.

Posted by: vig | Mar 24 2020 15:28 utc | 271

Oh and for those in the know... Why was TYROZETS™ discontinued three months ago? This product for those in the UK know this stuff totally *Works*, so why are we not getting it?

Re: One World Government. Truly people need to be broader with their research. I'm not being sarcastic -- really this stuff is real. It overlaps with how the 1% actually sees and operates in the World - Manipulation of religion, political families, and conditioning. Posting this for those interested - because if you actually will listen to it at lot is presented about our history in a relatively short space of time. 3 hours I know-- but just listen. Pulls in a lot... Early Egyptian cults, the basis of our religions, (control basically), Royalty (in all its forms), and then Freemasonry. Can't have a good expose without FM being involved.

Jordan Maxwell What's done in darkness will come to light
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ILohRSoZl8Y&fbclid=IwAR0gIWdTz0n5XvM-h8u-G8-YiXsm78WI16unWayt2ab48I5VALBjrzb6YL8

Posted by: Jayne | Mar 24 2020 15:32 utc | 272

It's not an exaggeration to say that, right now, the American right wing is proposing literally sending millions of Americans to die a horrible death, drowning in their own bloody pneumonia, to make the stock market go up.

https://twitter.com/carterforva/status/1242255077051699200

Posted by: H.Schmatz | Mar 24 2020 15:38 utc | 273

SharonM @267: one-world government

I'm not suggesting that it would.

At a high-level, there's a conflict today between the Empire and the upstarts (Russia, China, Iran, and some others).

Peter AU and Mina's comments that I referred to are relevant to this division as they relate to a possible overt global split in global governance. To simplify: US-led NATO "rules-based order" vs. China-led SCO sovereignty-based international order (very much like the current UN).

In USA this has an analog which has been summarized by Hillary Clinton as "the Constitution is not a suicide pact". Meaning that Constitutional safeguards are pliable when it is deemed that there is a threat that could undermine Constitutional order. This "rule" overrides the Constitution just as US "rules-based order" overrides the UN.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Mar 24 2020 15:45 utc | 274

Never let a crisis go to waste. 911 provided cover for mass surveillance, Orwellian narrative, and endless murder in the name of righteous indignation. What will Coronapocalypse allow?

The who, what, when and where of Covid-19 is fun speculation, and fodder to reinforce our world view from MAGA to Marx. But what isn't a conspiracy theory are the measures governments will impose upon peoples to assure Law and Order. Taking our shoes off in airports isn't about security, but authority. What are the next steps in the 'land of the free' to further the control of the few over the many. Checkpoints, papers, real-time surveillance, and the inverted totalitarianism of 'social credit.'

Posted by: gottlieb | Mar 24 2020 15:48 utc | 275

Thanks for clarifying, Jackrabbit:)

Posted by: SharonM | Mar 24 2020 16:01 utc | 276

A hearty thank you to BM for his SitRep and descriptive report on the mechanisms China's employed to deal with the upsurge in viral outbreaks over the last three decades. Such steps are precisely the type I'd expect China to take. Augmenting his report is this new Global Times report: "COVID-19 pandemic just started, hard to see end: Chinese epidemiologist." Long excerpt:

"Zeng Guang, [China's] CDC expert, noted that China took the strictest measures including lockdown and stopping of all business when there were only a few hundred cases, but the number still grew to more than 80,000 due to the disease's high transmission rate, infectiousness and long incubation period.

"There are almost 300,000 cases outside China, and some 26 countries have reported with more than 1,000 infections. Even if the globe adopts China's measures, the infection number will grow many times the current figure, Zeng said.

"It took 67 days for the first 100,000 infections to appear, 11 days for the next 100,000 and only four days for the figure to reach 300,000. The next 100,000 might only take two to three days or even less, Zeng said.

"China's decisiveness in the early stages of the COVID-19 epidemic came from the trauma of SARS, but that experience doesn't apply in data prediction as SARS had a lower transmission rate despite its high mortality rate, Zeng said.

"Zeng noted that China cannot be settled if the world cannot defeat COVID-19. 'We cannot say it's a victory if there is one infection in any country in the world,' he said.

"Other countries may trust in luck from their experience with the H1N1 pandemic in 2009, believing the disease will finally be brought under control without taking strict measures. In contrast, China 'overreacted' in 2009, which served as a public mobilization drill for all-round control and prevention in the face of a massive outbreak, Zeng said.

"Western countries have ignored China and WHO advice, which shows they cannot learn epidemic control from another country but only from own real pain and experience, Zeng said, noting South Korea may have learned its lesson from MERS."

The bolded text confirms what I hypothesized as to why China was so ready to act. The social reactions BM reported show well the chasm separating Chinese morality from the utter lack of same displayed by the Outlaw US Empire. What I see is a nation responsibly using technology to enhance the wellbeing of its human capital, while the citizens of "the richest nation on the planet" fear their government ever trying to do the same for its clear that advancing the people's wellbeing has never been on the agenda despite it being front and center as the rationale for that government's behavior.

Posted by: karlof1 | Mar 24 2020 16:08 utc | 277

Old Engineer
Thanks for putting that up. I had noticed NOx in a bit of other research and meant to look into it more.

http://www.apis.ac.uk/overview/pollutants/overview_nox.htm

Emission Sources and Trends
Man-made emissions of nitrogen oxides dominate total emissions in Europe, with the UK emitting about 2.2 million tonnes of NO2 each year. Of this, about one-quarter is from power stations, one-half from motor vehicles, and the rest from other industrial and domestic combustion processes. Unlike emissions of sulphur dioxide, emissions of nitrogen oxides are only falling slowly in the UK, as emission control strategies for stationary and mobile sources are offset by increasing numbers of road vehicles.

Nitrogen dioxide looks to be the main baddie amongst the NOx gases.
World map showing nitrogen dioxide hotspots. Can download larger version at the linked page
https://www.esa.int/Applications/Observing_the_Earth/Copernicus/Sentinel-5P/Nitrogen_dioxide_pollution_mapped
Looking at the map, I doubt the atmospheric NOx pollution play much of a part in outbreaks or death counts.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 24 2020 16:09 utc | 278

This is a good article analyzing the different strategies that countries have adopted.

Basically, they can impose a Suppression strategy or a Mitigation strategy.

The article advocates an early Suppression strategy, which has the benefit of buying you time.

Asian nations--and Europe belatedly--are using the Suppression strategy.

The Americans and British are using the Mitigation strategy, which could lead to disaster....

Coronavirus: The Hammer and the Dance
https://www.greanvillepost.com/2020/03/24/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance/

Posted by: ak74 | Mar 24 2020 16:14 utc | 279

Add to 279
To download slightly larger version hotspot map click on the map in linked page to bring up the download button.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 24 2020 16:26 utc | 280

@ Peter AU1 @279

The very charts you put up show a hot spot of these NO2 pollutants in Northern Italy, England, New York, Northern France, Belgium, Germany, and a huge swath of Eastern Europe. Moderate levels indicated in yellow are not all that healthy to breathe, especially if you are an older adult.

Posted by: Copeland | Mar 24 2020 16:33 utc | 281

@ BM.... thanks for your comments! i liked your gentle conclusions on a number of the dynamics at play as well.. welcome back!

Posted by: james | Mar 24 2020 16:49 utc | 282

Back to the Reality of our existence, the Mind.

Will probable never know the true effect the intense Media Storm created around Covid-19 has on mortality numbers but it's there.

Nocebo Effects and Negative Suggestions in Daily Clinical Practice – Forms, Impact and Approaches to Avoid Them
Link
Mechanisms of placebo and placebo-related effects across diseases and treatments.
Link

Here is a case of someone in an Italian hospital who has no clue about the above. Playing the national anthem through a megaphone in an ICU ??? Strange is putting it mildly.
video

Posted by: Tom_LX | Mar 24 2020 18:12 utc | 283

Copeland
Spain is a hotspot for case numbers and deaths but not NOx. Checking the map closely, I see Wuhan city itself is under a small hotspot within Hubei province. Germany exceptionally low death rate as percentage of confirmed cases.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 24 2020 18:18 utc | 284

Stupid move by Putin considering how easily Corona is spread.
https://www.rt.com/russia/483958-putin-hazmat-suit-hospital-coronavirus/

Posted by: Zanon | Mar 24 2020 18:47 utc | 285

@ zanon.. do you ever challenge your set position with regard to putin?? it seems to me in all the posts you have made on moa, that you are consistent in suggesting he is basically a retard for everything he does... i am just curious if you challenge that basic position you hold on him? and i apologize in advance if i have misunderstood your basic position...

Posted by: james | Mar 24 2020 19:13 utc | 286

Willis Eschenbach just looked through a report on 355 nCOV deaths in Italy.
In a serious blow to the NOx, different strain, etc people - but with a potential shout out to the early establishment theory - his suspicion is that it is spreading through the hospitals in Italy.
source
In particular:


1) More of the patients were over 90 than were under 60
2) The average age was 79 years
3) All but three of them had at least one other disease, so basically all of them were already sick
4) Three-quarters of them had two other diseases, and half of them had three or more other diseases. Half!

A look at the other diseases: hypertension, diabetes, atrial fibrillation, renal failure, stroke etc.

The mortality rate for 30-39 was 0.2%; for 40-49 was 1%; for 50-59 was 3%. Only 3% of the 355 cases had no other disease besides nCOV/COVID-19.

He ends with an anecdote from another contributor, speaking to what South Korea is doing:


The key is changing the criteria for testing. Here [in Korea] we test and track.

An employee of a call center in Seoul, was infected.
Office had 207 people.
March 8th. he tested positive.
EVERY person in that office was tested. today 152 have tested positive, they tested floors above and below his floor. Today 3 more from the 11th floor were found and 1 contact.

They are now tracing the contact, and the contact’s contacts. All will be tested. The business was in a residential building. 553 of the people in that building were tested. floors 13-18

This little beastie lives on surfaces for up to 3 days. See that elevator button? the hand rail on the stairs? the bathroom door handle? the coffee cup that pretty girl behind the counter handed you? it’s there. Now in my building we have hand sanitizer by the elevator buttons. you get in the habit of not touching public pretty quickly. Trust me I am not a germ phobe, but the changes have been simple when they are reinforced.

Let me give you a little taste of the highly detailed info we get.
Info that is shared daily in one spot, I will include some of the earlier call center case snippits

“In Daegu, every person at high-risk facilities is being tested. 87 percent completed testing and 192 (0.8 percent) out of 25,493 were confirmed positive. From Daesil Covalescent Hospital in Dalseong-gun, 54 additional cases were confirmed, which brings the current total to 64. In-patients on 6th and 7th floors are under cohort-quarantine.”

“From Guro-gu call center in Seoul, 7 additional cases (11th floor = 2; contacts = 5) were confirmed. The current total is 146 confirmed cases since 8 March. (11th floor = 89; 10th floor = 1; 9th floor = 1; contacts = 54)”

“From Bundang Jesaeng Hospital in Gyeonggi Province, 4 additional cases were confirmed. The current total of 35 confirmed cases since 5 March (20 staff, 5 patients in inpatient care, 2 discharged patients, 4 guardians of patients, 4 contacts outside the hospital). The 144 staff members who were found to have visited the hospital’s Wing no. 81 (where many confirmed cases emerged) were tested, 3 of whom tested positive.”

“Five additional confirmed cases have been reported from the call center located in Guro-gu, Seoul, amounting to a current total of 129 confirmed cases from the call center since 8 March. As of now, 14 confirmed cases in Gyeonggi Province has been traced to have come in contact with a confirmed patient who is a worker at the 11th floor call center at a religious gathering. Further investigation and tracing are underway.”

Test, Trace, Test more.

A random test in Iceland found 1% infected. 50% asymptomatic.

Posted by: c1ue | Mar 24 2020 19:47 utc | 287

@Richard

Congrats to the CDC for re-writing the famed remark: "The only thing we have to fear is we're not afraid enough!"

The following study particularizes on the problem vs. generalizing into panic mode. IMO we all need to get a grip. It appeared at ZH and then was picked up by Real Clear Politics (not that I'm impressed with either of these sites, but this study is worth the time (it is long and detailed versus the usual presentation):

The complete study (from March 22):

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/covid-19-evidence-over-hysteria

Here is a summary from commentator Ultramaroon at the ZH site:

1) The absolute number of total cases of the virus is not very informative, and should not be used to incite panic.

2) Placing all countries at a common zero point where X and Y axes intersect is a bit more useful. You can see that the USA and the European countries are woven together as in a skein of yarn, and that there are outliers like Malaysia, Singapore, Hong Kong, and maybe Japan.

3) Considering cases per statistical unit is even more useful, but does not give a view into how fast the virus is moving.

4) The novel coronavirus is spreading, but growth rates across all countries have declined over time regardless of those countries' policy decisions.

5) Cases of viral infection increase, then they stop increasing, then they decrease until they reach zero. God forbid that anybody should use the term "Bell curve" to describe that process, lest we anger a sweater-wearing professor from gloomy Washington who loves the word "********".

6) The likelihood that any given person will become infected with COVID-19 is quite low, the efforts of the media to convince the world that such likelihood is high notwithstanding.

7) COVID-19 cannot remain intact and viable on fomites for longer than 72 hours. It persists longest on stainless steel and plastic, and not as long on other materials.

8) UV radiation and heat denature this virus as they do many other viruses.

9) The "sweet spot" for viral replication in the winter months seems to be Europe, northern China, Japan, the central latitudes of the USA, and the west coast of South America down to Tierra del Fuego.

10) Children under the age of 19 are unlikely to get COVID-19, and usually have mild symptoms if they do get it.

11) The true R0 ("R nought") of the novel coronavirus may be between 1.5 and 3.0. However, the value of R nought is decreasing over time. The end of the pandemic is near.

12) Only 1 to 10 percent of people get the virus from others who were truly asymptomatic at the time of transmission.

13) The positivity rate varies according to country, but overall 93% of those who have symptoms and think they are COVID-positive are not actually positive.

14) 12% of all cases of COVID are serious. 5% of cases become critical. 2.3% of those infected die.

15) Case Fatality Rates (CFR) are declining. In the USA alone, the CFR has declined from 4.06% on 8 March to 1.32% on 20 March.

16) The CFR in the USA is trending closer to South Korea's than it is to Spain's or Italy's.

17) Panic does not reflect a population's fear of being infected with COVID-19. It reflects the fear of what governments will do in response to the epidemic.

18) Countries that have been hit hard by the virus should increase the capacity of the health-care systems to respond to future pandemics.

The author concludes that we should support business and productivity, stop closing schools and businesses, practice good hygiene, use common sense, and don't let the drones in government who threatened martial law get away with it; vote their sorry asses out of office. Anything that tends to increase the size and power of central governments is bad. Anything that tends to encourage and preserve freedom, tolerance, and openness in society is good.

~~

My question: How are we being played this time, for what and why, and will it take ten years for us to figure it out?

Posted by: hetro | Mar 24 2020 19:52 utc | 288

at OffGuardian there is an article about a dozen experts who have a different view on the crisis. In my opinion, a more educated and balanced view than in mainstream and alternative media. I won't put a link to the article to avoid censoring. It is from March 24 and has '12 experts questioning' in the title.

Posted by: Phil | Mar 24 2020 20:02 utc | 289

Regarding #288
I asked if it was possible that the early results are skewed because the really sick people are also likely to die quickly.
355 is presumably the earliest cohort of victims; the extreme age and pre-existing conditions of so many could be a factor in their expiring right away, whereas healthier people might take longer (or not expire at all).

Posted by: c1ue | Mar 24 2020 20:04 utc | 290

@Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 24 2020 18:18 utc | 285

The difference with respect Germany lays clearly in the higuer number of health care beds it has with respect Italy and Spain, as well as nurses/doctors per capita.

Posted by: H.Schmatz | Mar 24 2020 20:07 utc | 291

Please note that the US government ran the "Crimson Contagion’ Pandemic Exercise" from January 2019 to August 2019. The full coordinated draft report in PDF is posted online. Somehow the lessons learned are not being followed which is par for incident command drills.

Unfortunately, I have not seen a valid statistical analysis of the severity of the pandemic vs the seasonal flu. Ben Swann presents an analysis that points out that the Covid-19 dis-ease is thus far less dangerous than the common flu, as other posters have argued.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ohO8eAwi_po

Be careful about official statistics on Covid-19 disease deaths, as in many countries (e.g. Germany) the deaths triggered by the virus are recorded as due to the comorbidity from metabolic dis-eases.

Many doctors have pointed out that the Covid-19 virus is far more aggressive than the common flu that mostly kills the elderly. Therefore, from a personal basis it is best to error on the side of caution. Those who wish not to die prematurely from virus triggered diseases would be advised to study the biochemistry of the disease progression, or at the very least eat a healthy diet to resist viral infections and metabolic diseases (compress morbidity) that result in a more deadly viral infection outcome.

Posted by: Krollchem | Mar 24 2020 20:20 utc | 292

17) Panic does not reflect a population's fear of being infected with COVID-19. It reflects the fear of what governments will do in response to the epidemic.

Posted by: hetro | Mar 24 2020 19:52 utc | 289

Population widely remains ignorant of what is going on, and their fears and panic are about the wave of unemployment they are suffering as a consequence of lockdown and facilitation of dismissals by government.

Panic amongst the health care workers are less related to fear of being infected with COVID-19 and lack of prefessionalism ( as some have been accused today in certain Spanish autonomous organization by a former mini boss...)and more with being sent to treat patients without adecuate protective gear, still absent after more then two weeks of outbreak and when at the time of outbreak in Spain there were no more Western countries affected except Italy, with which the markets of health care material were not so overcrowded as they are now ( at the time of starting lockdown in Spain, China was offering to send whatever Spain would need...) They panic also in front of the continuous changes in orders of procedure, protocols, organization of personel and so on ( which could even change from 8am to 2pm...).

The feeling of complete chaos, lack of care, and meanness with respect spending in material ( even when additional budget was approved by central government ) for their employees by managers is what spread not panic but depression and dissapointment amongst those who are at the front line.

Posted by: H.Schmatz | Mar 24 2020 20:24 utc | 293

@Posted by: Krollchem | Mar 24 2020 20:20 utc | 293

Your theory, long ago debunked on that COVID-19 is only dangerous for elderly with preconditions and is not more deadly than common flu gets, again, debunked by the fact that amongst the first deaths in Spain after lockdown were a 52 years old nurse and a 38 years old Civil Guard ( notice both at essential services )without preconditions. Also there was a guy in his twenties amongst the first dead.

Posted by: H.Schmatz | Mar 24 2020 20:33 utc | 294

Phil @290

Funny (not) that we're getting an increasing messaging from "experts" that says that we should ease up on the fight against Covid-10 so that the economy doesn't suffer too much.

But there is little interest in the approach advocated by Dr. Didier Raoult that would both treat Covid-19 effectively AND end the lockdowns as explained here (mostly english translation of a post by a Swiss public health expert):

Covid-19 Fake CRISIS! Allows Government-assisted Profiteering: Chloroquine vs. Remdesivir

It means free testing for everyone and early treatment with Chloroquine, an inexpensive drug. Why are policymakers so disinclined toward this approach? Maybe because it would seriously cut into drug company profits (especially Gilead Sciences, maker of Remdesivir).

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Mar 24 2020 20:51 utc | 295

H.Schmatz@295

You have totally misrepresented my viewpoint, please reread my post! Please also read all the my comments from the COVID-19 disease MoA threads.

Posted by: Krollchem | Mar 24 2020 21:36 utc | 296

c1 i thought i had read here that the chinese had been using vit c succesfullyvwith cv, but maybe it was mere propaganda from a vit c advocate and i misunderstood.

Posted by: Mina | Mar 24 2020 21:56 utc | 297

@dltravers #137
Your information is very out of date.
There have been 16 nCOV deaths in the Bay Area. The cruise ship victim died in Placer county - isn't counted.
The majority of deaths so far are in Santa Clara County: 13 of the 16.

Posted by: c1ue | Mar 24 2020 22:08 utc | 298

c1ue@288

Thanks for mentioning Iceland's statistically valid study of the incidence and severity of the CoVID-19 disease.

Here is the Iceland government report summary:
https://www.government.is/news/article/2020/03/15/Large-scale-testing-of-general-population-in-Iceland-underway/

The company analyzing the tests is well respected and is most likely using the RT-PCR test
https://www.decode.com/research/
https://www.questdiagnostics.com/dms/Documents/covid-19/SARSCoV-2_HCP_Fact_Sheet.pdf

Posted by: Krollchem | Mar 24 2020 22:11 utc | 299

H.Schmatz@295

Here is a doctor's viewpoint that you may choose to act on:
https://www.globalresearch.ca/not-only-covid-19-virus-dangerous-how-our-body-reacts/5707304

Posted by: Krollchem | Mar 24 2020 22:34 utc | 300

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