Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
March 23, 2020

Coronavirus - How To Lift Lockdowns And Why We Should All Wear Masks

While the U.S. president continues to blame China there are more signs that the outbreak started elsewhere:

Some question why Italy was caught off guard when the virus outbreak was revealed on Feb. 21.

Remuzzi says he is now hearing information about it from general practitioners. "They remember having seen very strange pneumonia, very severe, particularly in old people in December and even November," he says. "This means that the virus was circulating, at least in [the northern region of] Lombardy and before we were aware of this outbreak occurring in China."

The sudden appearance of a new type of coronavirus against which no one had any immunity led to a sudden rise of cases with severe respiratory difficulties. These require up to three weeks of ventilator support and intensive care.

Our healthcare systems are not capable of working under such an onslaught. If they get overwhelmed other cases which require intensive care will fall by the wayside. The number of unnecessary deaths will then start to explode.

The only possible way to avoid such an outcome is to minimize contacts between humans to stop the mass infection wave.

When the first wave exploded in Wuhan city the authorities ordered a complete lockdown of the city and of Hubei province. That happened on January 23. Twelve days later, on February 4, the number of new cases in Wuhan started to decline. The Lombardy region in Italy ordered a lockdown on March 9. Twelve days later Italy reported its first decline of new cases.

While the hospitals in Wuhan as well as in Lombardy were for a while overwhelmed the further outbreak has been slowed if not stopped.

(Wuhan is notorious for air pollution but Lombardy is not. The theory that air pollution has contributed to the high number of severe cases in both regions is thus not confirmed.)

Lockdowns have been ordered in several European nations and in several U.S. states. Boeing and other companies have shut down their production facilities in Washington state. Many people are now unemployed. The situations in various states look dire.


bigger

But the lockdowns work and they will limit the rise of the current wave.

The question is now when to lift a lockdown. While twelve days are sufficient to stop an explosive rise in new cases they are likely not sufficient to stop the wave. Another two weeks of lockdown is probably required. After that the restrictions will have to be lifted in several steps to keep the number of new cases manageable.

It may well be necessary to prevent mass events from happening for several more months. Some travel restrictions are also likely to be kept in place. People will be able to get back to work but large meetings should be avoided. Using masks should become a social requirement (see below).

Instead of locking down whole populations one will have to find and lock down clusters.

The health care system needs a new branch that can take care of Covid-19 cases without the danger of infecting other patients. China established local fever clinics where people with flu or Covid symptoms can get tested. Those who have Covid must then be isolated for two weeks to prevent further infections. Their contacts must be actively traced. People who have come into near contact with an acute infected person are part of the cluster and must also be tested and isolated. Those who are put into isolation must be paid. Otherwise some will avoid it and will continue to spread the virus and disease.

These measures can be intensified or relaxed as needed. Their purpose is to keep the number of severe cases manageable. If the system works well we might even be able to eradicate the virus.

We now have tests for the antibodies people develop while they have the disease. Mass production has started. These tests will allow us to identify those who are no longer in danger when they handle a Covid patient.

There are signs that children often have carried the disease but were little affected by it. The antibody tests will show how many of them are already immune. The larger their number the better for the rest of us. Mass testing also seems to show that there are a quite large number of asymptomatic cases among grownups who nonetheless infect others. We should find some measures to prevent that.

A current paper published in Lancet argues that everyone should wear a mask:

Evidence that face masks can provide effective protection against respiratory infections in the community is scarce, as acknowledged in recommendations from the UK and Germany.

However, face masks are widely used by medical workers as part of droplet precautions when caring for patients with respiratory infections. It would be reasonable to suggest vulnerable individuals avoid crowded areas and use surgical face masks rationally when exposed to high-risk areas. As evidence suggests COVID-19 could be transmitted before symptom onset, community transmission might be reduced if everyone, including people who have been infected but are asymptomatic and contagious, wear face masks.

Wearing a mask helps with protecting oneself but even more importantly helps to protect others. One might be carrying and spreading the disease without knowing it. We all release fine droplets when we speak, sneeze or cough. Masks prevent one's droplets from spreading out.

The viruses are quite small and could slip through the pores of a mask. But the droplets they are carried with are larger and are less likely to come through. There are also suggestions that one virus alone is less likely to do harm and that a significant load of viruses is required to start the disease.

There are some cultural consideration that support the call for everyone to wear a mask:

The contrast between face mask use as hygienic practice (ie, in many Asian countries) or as something only people who are unwell do (ie, in European and North American countries) has induced stigmatisation and racial aggravations, for which further public education is needed. One advantage of universal use of face masks is that it prevents discrimination of individuals who wear masks when unwell because everybody is wearing a mask.

There is currently a shortage of professional masks and those that are still available are needed in our hospitals.

But one can also use a scarf, sew oneself a mask or make one's own masks from household items. None will be as good as a professional masks but all will help to keep the number of cases down.

Viruses do not like heat. Soap breaks them apart. One can clean a mask by heating it in an oven at 70°C (160°F) or by washing it with soap.

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Previous Moon of Alabama posts on the issue:

Posted by b on March 23, 2020 at 18:00 UTC | Permalink

Comments
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H.Schmatz@295

Here is a doctor's viewpoint that you may choose to act on:
https://www.globalresearch.ca/not-only-covid-19-virus-dangerous-how-our-body-reacts/5707304

Posted by: Krollchem | Mar 24 2020 22:34 utc | 301

H.Schmatz | Mar 24 2020 20:07 utc | 292
I had been wondering if that was the difference. Confirmed case numbers look high, but if this is spread evenly across the country, it spreads the patients requiring hospital care amongst the hospitals, whereas those numbers at a single outbreak wold quickly overload the local hospitals.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 24 2020 22:41 utc | 302

From Krollchem's link "Most Hospitals are already short on hydroxychloroquine,"

Trump bought huge amount of the stuff a few days back, an Israeli and a European manufacturer to supply the orders to the US over the next weeks. Trump most likely tied up a good chunk of the worlds supplies for the US. This came around the time he commandeered the swab kits off Italy for Israel.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 24 2020 22:51 utc | 303

For COVID-19 dis-ease information see:
https://covidtracking.com/data/

Posted by: Krollchem | Mar 24 2020 23:41 utc | 304

Excellent report from Italy on "Characteristics of COVID-19 patients dying in Italy Report based on available data on March 20th, 2020"

https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-COVID-2019_20_marzo_eng.pdf

Posted by: Krollchem | Mar 24 2020 23:53 utc | 305

Curious what the doctors and nurses think about Mycoplasma Pneumonia? Associated with SARS MERS fatal pneumonia. Could easily be with COV19 as well. This explains why anti-malarial drugs and azithromycin are working as they attack Mycoplasma. Essentially the deaths are from secondary infection. Or, in vulnerable groups... they may already have a subclinial Mycoplasma infection that is exacerbated by COV19.

Here is an research article that says as much: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/crj.12149

Posted by: Matt | Mar 25 2020 0:05 utc | 306

Interestingly how a health official indicated that people were presenting to health services with severe influenza/pneumonia complaints way back in December.

I myself and several others were laid up with a really bad case of the flu in the week between xmas and new years. Maybe this virus is a lot older and more widespread than currently assumed?

Posted by: Glen Batterham | Mar 25 2020 0:07 utc | 307

Peter AU1 @303

Any thoughts on the dosage recommended in Krollchem's link @301?

The doc says 200mg twice per day. You have suggested 300mg per week.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Mar 25 2020 0:46 utc | 308

Posted by: Glen Batterham | Mar 25 2020 0:07 utc | 307

Maybe this virus is a lot older and more widespread than currently assumed?

this may be very well possible. But we don't know, and probably don't have the means to know afterwards. Nature is adapting as we speak, it is practically impossible to follow its course.

It would do good to the scientific community to admit that fact. But the scientists are under heavy pressure, they have the duty to present results and statements. I never hear a specialist talking freely. They are all under distress. No wonder that we have this crisis, which is not a crisis at all.

Viruses are the greatest population on earth. Second are bacteria. Third is, I'm guessing, fungi. I keep saying that we know not very much about microbes that determine our daily life. Which is understandable, it's not a negative critic. Biochemistry is enormously complex, too complex for our minds to comprehend.

Posted by: Phil | Mar 25 2020 0:53 utc | 309

Jackrabbit@308

The Belgium doctor is referring to hydroxychloroquine @200mg. Perhaps Peter AU1 @303 is referring to the hydroxychloroquine sulfate equivalent which would be about 300 g(298g)?

Posted by: Krollchem | Mar 25 2020 1:19 utc | 310

Jackrabbit and Kollchem

The difference I think is in the active constituent or base it might be termed. Hydroxychloroquine sulfate - hydroxychloroquine is the active constituent, sulfate is just along for the ride.
Chloroquine sulfate off memory is around the 70-80% chloroquine.
Chloroquine phosphate is 3 parts chloroquine and 2 parts phosphate. Phosphate from what I make of it is used as a binder in a number of tablets, though from something I saw it could help with absorption but not sure on that.
That's what I have picked up in the last few days of reading - I think it will be in the ballpark.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 25 2020 1:44 utc | 311

Jackrabbit
I should have read the comments better. 300 mg vs 200mg.

Chloroquine - quinine dosage 300 mg.
hydroxychloroquine 200 mg but is not used on its own against malaria nor I think coronavirus.
hydroxychloroquine apparently is a derivative of chloroquine.

Possibly hydroxychloroquinei has more to do with regulating the immune system in treatment. Needs to be used with antiviral from what I have read.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 25 2020 2:29 utc | 312

You coverage of the Syrian conflict is fantastic and insightful, your coverage of the pandemic makes you sound like a shrill for the Chinese government.

Posted by: Rupert | Mar 25 2020 2:41 utc | 313

Patient Infected With Two Strains of COVID-19 In Iceland (The Reykjavík Grapevine, March 24)

It’s been confirmed that an individual who tested positive for COVID-19 in Iceland has been infected by two strains of the virus simultaneously. The second strain is a mutation of the original novel coronavirus. It is thought that this could be the first recorded dual infection case of this kind.

Speaking to RÚV news yesterday, deCODE CEO, Kári Stefánsson confirmed the unusual infection. It is thought the mutated second strain could be more malicious or infectious because people infected by the dual-strain patient were only found to have the second strain. If this is the case, the virus could be mutating to become more infectious over time. However, Kári was unable to confirm this and suggested it could be a coincidence.

Kári also noted that the mutation found in the sample taken from this dually-infected patient is one that has not been found outside Iceland, according to international databases.

This is just one of the startling new discoveries deCODE has uncovered from its analysis of the genetic sequences of 40 COVID-19 strains found in Iceland. According to Kári, the diversity of genetic sequences found in COVID-19 samples taken in Iceland indicate that the virus was brought to Iceland from a wider range of areas than was previously thought. The main origins of Icelandic infections are currently thought to be Italy, Austria, and Britain. A football match in the U.K. is thought to be the source for seven infections in Iceland.

Kári also estimated that 1% of Icelanders are currently infected. The results of screenings have previously suggested that only 0.5% are infected, but Kári believes the true figure of infections may be higher as many may currently be asymptomatic and as a result not coming forward for tests.

Iceland is fortunate enough to boast some of the best testing capacities in the world right now, although there is currently a EU-wide shortage of medical swabs, which means testing may be more difficult in the coming weeks. Over 10,000 samples have been taken to date, providing Icelandic scientists with invaluable data and allowing the country to become a world leader in research into the genetic make-up of the virus.

Posted by: S | Mar 25 2020 3:06 utc | 314

re Peter | Mar 24 2020 10:59 utc | @ 212 who danced around the issue by sayin:
"Doing something... seems to me a group with structure, a plan and an endgoal is required and this got out to the wider public. End goal needs to be something that would be accepted by the reality tv watching public and step by step plan to get there..."
Which is what I have been doing because it is important to start now before all the enforced stay at homes get settled into their news sources.

As I said in the original post about this @ #194, this time will be a world changing event like 911 but with one major difference. That is back in '01 people had to absorb information while stuck in their usual keeping the wolf from the door tasks. That made them totally reliant on the msm. This time most of us have the time stuck in our homes under lockdown. Now we can get the truth out in an entertaining rather than a didactic manner.

It is lame to see my sketch of this thread as just another whinge.

I don't have time to go into it all because we re still scoping out our message line and learning the tools for the media we plan to use, but I still say the same thing; endlessly batting backwards and forwards on issues which few of the posters have a real comprehensive understanding of, may fill in time but it is far from productive since if anyone does read that stuff all they will get out of it is confused.

Now is the time to be developing local community resources (important to get that initial credibility through the community we are known in) which inform, entertain & educate.
leave the flannel for the drongos.

Posted by: A User | Mar 25 2020 3:24 utc | 315

Antibiotics Could Have Aggravated the Epidemic in Italy (Vesti.ru, March 24)


According to a Russian geneticist Vadim Pospelov, such a difficult epidemic situation on the peninsula may be associated with a weakened immunity of local residents. And the reason for this is broad-spectrum antibiotics. Local doctors prescribe them too often, even for common cold.

And this is not just a personal assessment. This is the real problem of Italy, recognized both in the republic itself and throughout the world. According to estimates by the OECD, antibiotics are prescribed 60% more often in [Italy] than in other member countries.

“The population was actually hooked on increased doses, which negatively affects the stability of the immune system. This had its effect on the fact that in Italy many people were affected by coronavirus infection,” says Vadim Pospelov.

Human immunity depends on the state of microflora. Including intestinal microbiota. About 50 trillion different microorganisms live in the digestive tract. And here, in order to deter this entire army from uncontrolled reproduction, up to 70% of all immunomodulating cells are concentrated.

Antibiotics allow our immune system to relax and repel harmful microorganisms themselves. As a result, immunity becomes weaker, and the ability to resist infections decreases.

“When antibiotics, even the most banal ones, begin to be taken, the immune system shuts off or almost shuts off. As a result, holes form in this microbiotic patchwork quilt, and on the other hand, immunity is weakened, and we create all possible conditions for invasions of pathogenic microorganisms,” says Ivan Kozlov, vice-president of the Russian Scientific Society of Immunologists, doctor of medical sciences.

Large numbers of sick and deceased elderly Italians are another hidden confirmation of the weakened immunity of the nation. The cells of the body’s immune system that recognize viruses and produce antibodies to them eventually adapt to specific pathogens. And the undecided cells (also called naive) that can be trained to counteract a new threat lessen in numbers with age. One can imagine what happens in the elderly, whose immunity is mowed down by antibiotics.

Posted by: S | Mar 25 2020 3:40 utc | 316

Sorry, I forgot to insert the link. Here it is: Antibiotics Could Have Aggravated the Epidemic in Italy (in Russian).

Posted by: S | Mar 25 2020 3:43 utc | 317

My celebration of Russia’s success in containing the coronavirus was premature. FT’s chart of confirmed cases suggests that Russia is following the same trajectory as the UK. Starting on March 26, all Moscow residents older than 65 or suffering from a chronic disease must stay at home. COVID-19 patients with mild symptoms will no longer be hospitalized. Moscow’s testing capacity will be expanded to 13,000 tests/day by the end of this week.

Posted by: S | Mar 25 2020 4:24 utc | 318

Posted by: karlof1 | Mar 24 2020 16:08 utc | 278
"... the chasm separating Chinese morality from the utter lack of same displayed by the Outlaw US Empire...."

Thanks for a great observation.

The Chinese people trust that their government is serving them, and so grant their consent to be led.

Equally, the CCP is generally more moral than the US leadership, being made up of carefully selected / nominated people of high qualifications and proven capacity to deliver good results for the communities that they serve.

This is entirely not obvious to most Westerners, who have been blinded by their MSM incessantly libelling the CCP since WW2.

Posted by: kiwiklown | Mar 25 2020 4:51 utc | 319

A User 315

I started looking into what was happening with MH17 in 2014. Before that time, friends and family, other people I might talk to all agreed the US was the biggest threat to world piece. All those people have accepted the 24 7 propaganda and now see Russia and China as a threat and US is bad but we need US because of the Russia China threat. This wont change until things hit absolute bottom and they find they have to review everything they believe. Then a clear understanding of how they have come to that point will be important. If you have a circle of people there that does understand what is occuring in the world can take this to others, and make plans accordingly, then that is a good thing.
For me, it is important to understand exactly what is occuring so when the world my children have come to know collapses I can help them and their families.
Eldest daughter who is a nurse I think is the only one of my children who has something of an idea on what is coming.
When it comes to political systems though, there is no one size fits all. each has to be tailored to the people their history, and what will be acceptable to the majority.
Once the US goes down, and hopefully it does, most systems I think be be some form of socialism, But that won't happen until we hit rock bottom and US is no longer an economic and military power in the world. For us in five-eyes, this must be broken up before any grass roots change can occur.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 25 2020 4:58 utc | 320

I believe the fellow in the video here may be US investigative journalist George Webb who lives in Washington DC. Has anyone else seen the video? Webb claims to have found Patient X who brought the SARS-COV-2 virus to Wuhan in October 2019, during the World Military Games. The person Maatje Benassi (Dutch-American) competed as a member of the US team in the cycling events.

Posted by: Jen | Mar 25 2020 5:13 utc | 321

@ 321 jen... here is a more recent vid by george webb others might want to watch as well..

Posted by: james | Mar 25 2020 5:46 utc | 322

James @ 322: Thanks for the information! I had heard that the US team that went to the World Military Games last year had trained at a venue not far from Fort Detrick. Fort Detrick (Maryland state) is not far from Washington DC itself.

Posted by: Jen | Mar 25 2020 5:51 utc | 323

re Peter AU1 | Mar 25 2020 4:58 utc | 320

I don't mean to come across as harsh but, I believe it is foolish to the point of stupidity to imagine that as our previously accepted systems fall apart, the world will automatically turn to socialism.

South Africa is one of the best relatively recent examples of how people are lured away from socialism into 'anything but socialism'. As has been previously discussed at MoA, after Russia 'fell' and the elites called off ww1, all elite energy was devoted to kyboshing socialism. Back then the arseholes got so concerned about we the normal human beings giving them, the arseholes the finger, then getting organised & sticking up for ourselves, that the elites called off a war, a 'great' war which they were all making a pile out of, that they had to obstruct an equitable society any way which they could.

In Germany, the spiritual home of socialism all resources were poured into fascism, most of the rest of the whitefella world got sidetracked by being sold the same 'democratic socialism' pup which bernie is still attempting to delude the people with.

This is not a time to hunt out reasons why we can't do it, this is the right time to highlight all the reasons why we should, most importantly how we can.

Anyone with a phone less than 10 years old can get a message constructed and hung on an accessible site, a site that isn't youtube, but one which will allow other humans to access, that will not be the situation for much longer, so now is the time to strike.

Obviously a budget a little larger will be more effective, but the most important element, creativity, cannot be blocked and will allow messages the arseholes don't want for the duration of this pandemic.

We have some workable ideas about vid and text servers that are unlikely to be uncovered by the forces of darkness which I betcha others can dream up better options than.

Of course not all plans will be viable, in fact it is likely that every move we first consider has been covered by the arseholes. So what, we have time & can beat any richfella nonsense. The most important fact I have discovered in more than 50 years of resisting the bastards is as powerful as some of these pricks are, their imagination is totally lacking so that as you engage them, sure they may win the first coupla rounds but that tells us how they think and it inspires more creative thinking by us who resist. It doesn't take long before not only can a resister come up with strategies which do work, we can neat them at their owb game and see what they are most likely to try before they think of it.
What we cannot so easily defeat is the same old same old - that they are too powerful & we too weak. That is nonsense but pervasive nonsense we, the people fall for far too often.

Sure most won't succeed straightaway, but so what? Who cares even if they do get somewhat humiliated, altho I guarantee anyone trying to speak the truth will be respected by far more people than the handful of paid arseholes spewing venom.There is nothing to lose, but a world for our tamariki & tamariki whāngai to gain.

I like many others here has to accept that yes, I am past my 'best before' date but there is little the greedies can do to me that life isn't already inflicting.

My kids & grankids are what gets me up, so if there is anything I can possibly achieve that could stand the notion of ordinary humans' existence becoming worse tomorrow than it is today, I will try to give that a go. And, I betcha, I'm not Robinson Crusoe.

Posted by: A User | Mar 25 2020 7:52 utc | 324

A User

My definition of socialism may be different to most. To me it is a government that controls natural monopolies or those industries where cartels can form. The government ensures full educational an investment in the country, health plus all the standard duties governments perform.
To me I guess that is my very basic definition of socialism. The government controls natural monopolies and ensures education and health. To me communism means everything owned and controlled by the state collectives and so forth but all centrally controlled. US capitalism being the other end of the spectrum.
To me a socialist country can take bits of capitalism, bits of communism and custom build a society to suit the people and that to me makes socialism.

On getting something going before five-eyes is broken, look at Hanson and Whitlam. Five-eyes intel is like an insidious cancer. It must be removed before anything else can occur. Five-eyes is supposed to be joint intelligence gathering, but it is more an extremely powerfull deep state type organisation. Other than being a thorn on the peripheries, no change can be made in our countries until that operation is brought down.
I put this up as my thoughts that are often in my mind rather than to denigrate what you are doing and want to do.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 25 2020 8:32 utc | 325

I know that in Belgium hydroxychloroquine (Plaquenil)is currently being advised for treatment - but only when COVID is confirmed by a test and most suspected cases aren't tested. Rheumatologists are familiar with the product.

Posted by: Tuyzentfloot | Mar 25 2020 10:43 utc | 326

@99 The corona virus nutjobs here remind me of the global warming bed wetters. I remember a time when people used to laugh at the crazies wearing the the sandwich boards "The World Will End Tomorrow". Today we take them seriously and put them in charge of public policy. What a world.

Posted by: Goldhoarder | Mar 25 2020 11:15 utc | 327

According to TASS, the State Duma (the lower house of the Russian legislature) plans to pass a law next week introducing punishments for violating epidemiological rules (e.g., quarantine):

  • A violation that unintentionally causes a mass infection will be punishable by up to ₽1,000,000 fine or up to 3 years in prison.

  • A violation that unintentionally causes death of one person or intentionally creates a threat of a mass infection will be punishable by up to ₽2,000,000 fine or up to 5 years in prison.

  • A violation that unintentionally causes deaths of two or more people will be punishable by up to 7 years in prison.

Posted by: S | Mar 25 2020 11:26 utc | 328

The virus may have been circulating in Wuhan as early as October a Professor of Epidemiology who is directly involved told me. That would be consistent with Lombardy patients appearing in November or perhaps earlier. The Chinese have strong trade links with Milan through the fashion industry, so transmission could have been fast. Bear in mind that only a tenth of cases are reported.

Posted by: walrus | Mar 25 2020 11:51 utc | 329

Secretary of the Security Council of Russia Nikolay Patrushev on the coronavirus:

Patrushev: Russia Will Continue to Help Countries Suffering from the Coronavirus (Kommersant, 25 March)


Mr. Patrushev is convinced that joint efforts will bring positive results. “The virus came to us from abroad, and today the shared task is to combine efforts in the fight against the pandemic both within the country and in the world as a whole. Russia already helps and will help the states that are most in need of support to cope with the mass spread of the infection in order to prevent its further penetration into our territory,” said Nikolay Patrushev.

Tonight, the 15th IL-76 aircraft of the Russian military transport aviation with military personnel and equipment on board flew to Italy to assist in the fight against the coronavirus. In addition, as previously stated by the Russian Ambassador to the United States Anatoliy Antonov, Russia is ready to assist the United States in the fight against the coronavirus COVID-19, if necessary.

Posted by: S | Mar 25 2020 11:54 utc | 330

Krollchem @310, Peter AU1 @311 @312

The question is: what is the correct preventative dosage of quinine?

Peter had suggested 300mg per week. Since tonic water has 83mg per liter in USA, that would mean drinking 4 liters per WEEK.

The doctor in the link is recommending a much higher dose: 400mg per DAY.

But the doctor's dosage may be in tablet form where some part is filler. So his recommendation may actually be closer to 300mg per DAY of quinine.

so ... 300mg of quinine per DAY or per WEEK????

Now, to complicate matters, from what I've read, the dosage for someone that is sick is 500mg per DAY of Chloroquine. So 300mg of quinine per DAY seem rather high as a preventative measure.

<> <> <> <> <>

My daily preventative right now: 1 liter of tonic water (83mg of quinine) with orange juice (vitamin-C) plus 2,000 IU vitamin-D and a few Brazil nuts (for selenium).

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Mar 25 2020 12:46 utc | 331

Posted by: S | Mar 25 2020 3:06 utc | 314

Patient Infected With Two Strains of COVID-19 In Iceland (The Reykjavík Grapevine, March 24)

Nature is adapting, changing, modulating, mutating all the time. Right now, in your very own body. Every second. Otherwise biological life, which is very complex, would not be possible. Therefore it is no surprise at all to find new strains of nuclein acid envelopped in proteins that we erronously call viruses (latin for poison).


Posted by: S | Mar 25 2020 3:40 utc | 316

Antibiotics Could Have Aggravated the Epidemic in Italy (Vesti.ru, March 24)

Antibiotics can and should be used, but with wisdom. The same for other pharmaceutical products. The same for vaccines.

Posted by: Phil | Mar 25 2020 13:03 utc | 332

... but it's better to strengthen the body with natural means. Manual work (exercise) or long walks, fresh air, sunlight, good company, good relationships, etc. Good spirit is important. Bad spirit, worry, fear, makes one unenjoyable. And everything unenjoyable, weak, atonic, tends to fall victim of natural selection. We have now the opportunity to study nature in more detail, to finally understand nature a bit better. This leads to ease and confidence. This leads to the exact opposite of fear. This is strength. Everything that is strong, enjoyable, happy, will thrive and live long.

Posted by: Phil | Mar 25 2020 13:16 utc | 333

I heard similar things from a close friend there. In addition to universal use of the tracking app, he mentioned also spot checks of people's temperature (in effect will force everyone to check their own possible symptoms daily, to avoid being caught if nothing else), squads of people going around spraying/wiping all doorknobs keypads touchscreens etc. Did you see that too?
Posted by: ptb | Mar 24 2020 14:43 utc | 255

Not spot checks but widespread systematic checks. Virtually everywhere you go (except getting on a bus) there is someone measuring your temperature - this is just a check for the absence of fever and the figure is not recorded (it would be too cumbersome). Entering the metro, buildings, hotel, shopping centre, important places, anywhere you might have contact with many people they measure your temperature on entering.

I didn't see any systematic wiping of door handles, but since it would make sense I am sure they do (come to think of it, I didn't come into contact with many door handles, except for my hotel room door). I did see non-systematic wiping of surfaces in general, and I did see wiping of lift buttons. I also saw people in protective gear sprayingpedestrian areas quite often. There are also trucks spraying the streets. This is despite the fact that I was only ever in very low-risk areas.

Posted by: BM | Mar 25 2020 13:38 utc | 334

Use N95 respirator mask, raincoat, gloves and eye protection when in high risk areas. Quarantine in special room everything, including food packages you import in your home for 3 days.
Posted by: Passer by | Mar 23 2020 20:05 utc | 44

Something like this?

Posted by: BM | Mar 25 2020 13:42 utc | 335

A recommended another take on the subject - though difficult to say which view is more to the point - here: 12 Experts Questioning the Coronavirus Panic in OffGuardian

Posted by: Die Niemandsfuchs | Mar 25 2020 13:43 utc | 336

@ Posted by: Goldhoarder | Mar 25 2020 11:15 utc | 327

There's certainly a huge class struggle being waged with this pandemic, as it became clear with Trump's and Bolsonaro's yesterday speeches.

On one side, there's the petit bourgeoisie (aka "small and medium business owners"), who are at a zombie state (i.e. they have zero profit, they can only roll their business and service the minimum of their debt) and will certainly be wiped out from the face of the Earth if a total quarantine extends for much time. Put in this group the so-called "self-employed" (who are particularly numerous in Los Angeles, where the art industry is strong, and also in the UK), who have the worst of the two worlds: they have to work like a worker but without the benefits of the worker. These are being represented by the so-called "populist right" or "far-right" - the likes of Trump and Bolsonaro.

On the other side, there's big business. They want the lockdown to be as long as possible for the simple reason that this will weed out the inefficient and unproductive petit bourgeoisie, leaving potential for a "creative destruction" which could, in theory, initiate another cycle of capitalist accumulation. They can weather a big lockdown because they have the size to do so, because they already had a huge pile of cash from the ZIRP era and because they will receive huge and generous bailouts. In the USA, they are being represented in the political arena by NY governor Andrew Mark Cuomo.

The working class is kinda on the fence, but pending more on the side of big business, for one simple reason: they don't want to die. However, it wouldn't surprise me if the lumpenproletariat (workers of the "gig economy", informal workers without any rights) side with the petit bourgeoisie, for the same, but reverse side of the reason: they don't want to die by starvation. They want to continue to work because if they don't work, they don't get paid, so, in their calculation, it's better to risk catch the COVID-19 than to die by starvation or drowining even more in debt. That may be one of the reasons why big banks froze the deadline to pay debts like mortgages: they want to drive a wedge between the lumpenproletariat and the petit bourgeoisie.

Posted by: vk | Mar 25 2020 14:16 utc | 337

#316
Yes, for sure weakened microflora in populations with overuse of antibiotics.... wonder then if that's why Third World countries are fairing better at this point?

To add a sane preventative measure to other recommendations here:

L. Gasseri is a lactobaicill probiotic that SPECIFICALLY attacks COV19!! Here's the research summary from S. Korea: http://www.koreabiomed.com/news/articleView.html?idxno=7744 The Swanson Brand can be purchased on AMAZON for under $15.

Also would bring attention to "real" sauerkraut or kimchi (from coop or farmers market- not the preserved soggy kind) which is is loaded with microflora. 1T 3x per day as a supplement will colonize the throat, nasal passages, and even into the upper respiratory system. These "bugs" are humans FIRST line of immune defense.

I had SARS a few years back. After hacking my lungs out for months with no help from mainstream medicine, the sauerkraut did the trick.

Keep in mind that this is not "alternative" medicine anymore. The new "antibiotic" research is designer "probiotic" strains engineered to attack human pathogens.

Posted by: Matt | Mar 25 2020 14:38 utc | 338

The information we know has been consistent so far: the vast majority of deaths from nCOV are not just the elderly, but the elderly who are already very sick.
I personally think it may be possible that this is early reporting bias: the really sick expire from their existing illnesses and/or nCOV faster.
nCOV victims who get to the pneumonia stage take 2-3 weeks to recover, but patients who progress from there to non-cardiopathic edema (i.e. can't breath) or worse, to sepsis (organ failure) - take months. A younger person would seem to be able to continue in these extreme conditions more than older ones.
Nonetheless, the absolute infection rate in the population is still really low even in Italy.
What I'm monitoring now is deaths vs. recoveries vs. confirmed cases.
Deaths are the least variable of the stats, but even this not terribly reliable because of the pre-existing condition situation. Italy is reporting deaths *with* COVID-19 vs. death *from* COVID-19, for example.
Recoveries are hopefully firm but are only in relation to confirmed cases.
Confirmed cases are the most variable - this is absolutely a function of testing. New York has tested a lot, California - not so much.
The reasoning is simple:
We are seeing a stream of epidemiological data: 100 people catch nCOV, 50 show symptoms, 10 get the pneumonia or worse, 1-2 get past pneumonia into non-cardiopathic edema and/or sepsis. At the last stage, 1/3 to 1/2 die.
For the 40 people who show symptoms but don't get worse - they recover (i.e. are virus free) in roughly 2 weeks.
This is useful because this can be used to frame the numbers being reported regionally: confirmed cases, deaths, recoveries. In particular, we can use the ratio down from confirmed cases to deaths vs. the ratio up from deaths to actual cases. Let's call this CCD (confirmed cases down) vs. DSU (deaths scaled up)

For Italy: CCD from today's numbers implies 162K overall infected (including asymptomatic), 13.8K pneumonia, 1K serious and 415 deaths.

DSU from today's numbers: 6820 deaths implies 909K nCOV infected, 454.7K symptomatic, 90.9K pneumonia and 17,050 serious cases.

South Korea: CCD from 9137 confirmed cases yields: 18274 overall (including symptomatic), 1827 pneumonia, 137 serious cases and 55 deaths. Lower than actual but not ridiculously so.

DSU from 126 deaths yields: 16,800 overall cases, 8,400 symptomatic, 1680 pneumonia and 315 serious. Note the overall is actually lower than CCD.

Why does this matter?

Because of the disparate stages of nCOV in different countries/states, it is really hard to make any sense of the numbers being reported.

South Korea, for example, is touted as having handled the nCOV epidemic really well because their curve has "bent". We know that South Korea is doing a lot of testing as part of their response. But equally, we don't know how other countries are testing. Are they as thorough as South Korea? Hardly testing at all? Skewing the reporting deliberately or just via different standards?

The CCD and DSU calculations just put a framework around the different reported numbers.

For Italy, the CCD numbers are clearly unrepresentative of what is going on while DSU-Italy implies over 900K people (out of the population of 60 million) caught nCOV.

For South Korea, the CCD and DSU numbers are a fairly tight ring around their reported stats.

I can't seem to find an easy way to show all this in html - but I uploaded a pic, you can see it here:(BOLD numbers are from internet, rest are calculations) IMGUR link

Posted by: c1ue | Mar 25 2020 15:44 utc | 339

Haven't seen anything about this in the UK MSM, apologies it its already here.

It is the 20th March Public Health England announcement that the UK Government, as of 19 March 2020, no longer considered COVID-19 to be a high consequence infectious diseases (HCID) here in the UK.

Whilst it probably a fair decision, compared to the other diseases on the list (at link), it does confirm that the UK Government was well aware in January of the potential seriousness of what was heading our way yet, on the surface, did very little about it like order masks and other protective wear, let alone ventilators.

My highlight.

The 4 nations public health HCID group made an interim recommendation in January 2020 to classify COVID-19 as an HCID. This was based on consideration of the UK HCID criteria about the virus and the disease with information available during the early stages of the outbreak.
......
In particular that COVID-19 has not been considered highly infectious in the UK due to low death rate since 19th March 2020. They have determined that several features have now changed; in particular, more information is available about mortality rates (low overall), and there is now greater clinical awareness and a specific and sensitive laboratory test, the availability of which continues to increase.

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infectious-diseases-hcid

Posted by: JohninMK | Mar 25 2020 16:02 utc | 340

good work c1ue.

Posted by: Phil | Mar 25 2020 16:08 utc | 341

c1ue #339:

We know that South Korea is doing a lot of testing as part of their response. But equally, we don't know how other countries are testing. Are they as thorough as South Korea? Hardly testing at all?

See the table at en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_testing.

Posted by: S | Mar 25 2020 16:57 utc | 342

c1ue #339

Also, this table published by Dipartimento della Protezione Civile might provide enough detail to help improve your model.

Finally, you may find TradingView useful for quickly analyzing COVID-19 data: www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=COVID19%3ACONFIRMED_US.

Posted by: S | Mar 25 2020 17:10 utc | 343

>Russia is ready to assist the United States in the fight
>against the coronavirus COVID-19, if necessary.

Uncle Sam would sooner choke on his own vomit before allowing assistance from any other nation state.

The complete absence of any kind of real planning for epidemics is shocking. There are entire agencies that are supposed to prepare for this, and they always claim that epidemic scenarios are at the top of their lists. I guess I shouldn't be shocked after watching the destruction of New Orleans on live TV 15 years ago. Perhaps it is the scale of their failures that takes the breath away.

Posted by: Trailer Trash | Mar 25 2020 17:51 utc | 344

There is a book missing in that great anti-utopia list, the book is WE by Evgeniy Zamyatin:
https://openlibrary.org/books/OL17199938M/We
Some say Orwell and Huxley were inspired by it.

Posted by: Paco | Mar 25 2020 20:08 utc | 345

@S #342
Thanks for the link - I find it interesting that Germany isn't even listed...
France - very few tests, even less than the US.
For US numbers: how much is New York vs. the rest of the country?
By state?
I'm 100% sure the level of testing is dramatically variant.

Posted by: c1ue | Mar 25 2020 23:29 utc | 346

@S #343
Thanks for that link as well. If I understand "tamponi" right, they've only actually tested 297K people of which 69K are confirmed.
This seems like a really high "hit" rate - implying they're only testing people who are showing symptoms.

Posted by: c1ue | Mar 26 2020 0:02 utc | 347

The google tracker lists confirmed cases per million people by country.

https://google.org/crisisresponse/covid19-map

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 26 2020 0:20 utc | 348

@Paco | Mar 25 2020 20:08 utc | 345

Also "One" by David Karp, now almost forgotten.

Posted by: Dystopias | Mar 26 2020 3:13 utc | 349

'b' said: "There is currently a shortage of professional masks and those that are still available are needed in our hospitals.
But one can also use a scarf, sew oneself a mask or make one's own masks from household items. None will be as good as a professional masks but all will help to keep the number of cases down. Viruses do not like heat. Soap breaks them apart. One can clean a mask by heating it in an oven at 70°C (160°F) or by washing it with soap."

These are all ill advices without doing a proper search.

1) Why a normal cotton mask (scarfs) don't work because its pores are so wide, small virus simply get thru 100% giving false security. You need 16 layers cotton cloth mask China Drs improvised in 2003 SARS outbreak to work.

There are videos teaching how to sew mask using layered cotton cloth, with a layer of plastic food wrapper sewn in middle to provide water proofing, and a nose bridge make of metal wire(can take out from disposable mask).

2) The reason disposable surgery mask (cloth type) work well because it has a middle layer with electrostatic function to stick all virus & bacteria particles up to 95%. But it has no water proofing hence a risk of infection used by Drs doing surgery or tube insertion on infected patients, so a N95 3M mask with water repelling layer is required by Drs.

3) By washing, steaming, soaping, alcohol spraying the masks, the wetness render the mask static layer ineffective, hence making it useless in protecting against virus. That's reason why mask can last only 4~8hrs as our breathing and saliver wet it.

But using recycled mask do help to prevent aerosol saliva from our talking, coughing and sneezing, so it helps protect each others hence reduce cross infection.

China has make extensive studies on the recycling masks due to severe shortage. They even make 20x reusable mask with special static layer. Some use replaceable static pad on recycled mask.

But both China studies, and later Germany, concluded that recycle mask after sterilize or wash can be reactivated with static charge by:
-hairdryer blowing, most effective.
-fan blowing.
-lighter igniting sparks.
And the recycled mask should be tested with small piece of tissue papers to see if it attract them. If not, blow again.

To sterilize recycled mask,studies revealed:
-most effective was hairdryer blowing 20~30min.
-altho virus died at 58deg for 30min, oven of 70deg don't work. Yes, it just don't kill all virus in studies.
-use of medical UV light.
-steam or put in boil water for few min,but that destroy the static function. Need to reactivate.
-microwave oven, which will burn and sparks on the embeded nose bridge metal unless removed.

What i did is to rotate use of a few masks. I hanged them on windy sunny place after use, and rotate in sequence so each can get atl least 24hrs natural sterilization of wind & sun uv. They are good enough for normal usage in non epidemic center.

Reactivation of static function is very important if to truly prevent virus. And not forget the eyes, drs got infected with protective suits because of no goggle. Wear a sunglass at least.

If you enter enclosed area like shopping mall or airport, office, etc, then good luck. Aerosol virus is proven to stay for many days in climate control enclosed area, infecting even those with mask for prolong exposure. That's how thousands of Drs working in ICU & hospitals get infected even with hazmat suits.

Spore Dr had found out that during 2003 SARS afyer many died even with full protective suits, so a pressurized mask with a air compressor(biowarfare filteration) carried on lower back was needed to be fully protected in close contact and enclosed space like ICU with high concentration of virus. So you don't find Spore Drs get infected this time. US & Jp adopted similar design. China made their own this month after 3400 Medical staffs got infected with some deaths.

Then its your shoes bottom that carry the virus into your house that require proper treatment. Spread some antiseptic powder or detergent on a box, step/put your shoes on it.

Don't press elevator buttons by hand. Use a pen, then cap back after use.

Wash hand with soap diligently esp before eating.

Keep rooms well ventilated to reduce virus concentration.

Keep pets in healthy conditions. HK has already found 2 cases of infected dogs, one died, and a dozen quarantine. If virus can jump from animals to humans, what them not able to jump to animals from infected human and vice versa?

To sterilize your clothing, bags, hairs & body, ..after returning home is great hassle. You can wash down everything, hang them on windy sunny place to reduce virus concentration. Or you can improvised a clean room disinfection shower by using fuming of herbal burning smoke in say enclosed bathroom.

Clinical studies found these two herbs work very effective to the tune of below first one reaching surgery theatre level.
-生苍术, rhizome of Chinese atractylodes(Atractylodes chinensis)
-艾草, Asian mugwort or wormwood (genus Artemesia), Moxibustion tube.

Other herbs smoke is not sure, but their particles likely suffocate the virus or at least their alkaline particles sticking on virus make them less active-surviving.

Some use tumeric powder. Some use vinegar steaming, tea tree essential oil aromatherapy, but you need large concentrated dosage to be effective.

So the best is to build up immune boday that can resist whatever strands and mutating virus by healthy lifestyle and herbal tonic, with high vitamin C fruits like oranges. Hope my mths of research info sharing helps.

Best regards to all, take great care.

Posted by: TTdr | Mar 26 2020 3:32 utc | 350

c1ue #346, #347:

I find it interesting that Germany isn't even listed

It’s very strange.

France - very few tests, even less than the US.

Note that the data on testing in France is outdated. The last update is from March 15. It’s not an issue of Wikipedia—France simply hasn’t published any updates on testing since then.

For US numbers: how much is New York vs. the rest of the country?
By state?

The data on testing in New York state, California and Washington state is in the table. The data on testing in other U.S. states is available at covidtracking.com/data/.

If I understand "tamponi" right, they've only actually tested 297K people of which 69K are confirmed. This seems like a really high "hit" rate - implying they're only testing people who are showing symptoms.

That is how I read it as well. So the real numbers of infected are much higher, and the real fatality rates are much lower.

Posted by: S | Mar 26 2020 4:22 utc | 351

Paco #345

I second the recommendation of Zamyatin’s We (written in 1921).

Posted by: S | Mar 26 2020 4:46 utc | 352

Peter AU1 @ 325 -- "To me a socialist country can take bits of capitalism, bits of communism and custom build a society to suit the people and that to me makes socialism."

That sounds like the present China. Singapore too. Governance is about serving the people. It does not matter if the cat is black or white as long as it does what it is supposed to do.

vk @ 337 -- "There's certainly a huge class struggle being waged with this pandemic..."

The US just agreed to hand out $2 Trillion to the ZeroPointOnePercenters, and they still do not have enough masks, tests, hazmat suits for first responders. Similarly, here in NZ, billions of dollars are being handed out today, only the second day of the 4-week lockdown. but first responders still have no masks, thermometers or hazmats. Looking more like a class beatdown than a class struggle. :0)

Trailer Trash@ 344 -- "Uncle Sam would sooner choke on his own vomit before allowing assistance from any other nation state."

They never let a good crisis go to waste. The GFC shovelled Main Street wealth to Wall Street. This covid19 affair will do even more: 2 Trillion, and counting.

Posted by: kiwiklown | Mar 26 2020 8:24 utc | 353

COVID-19 has been spreading around Europe for much longer than has been stated publicly, it appears:

In an earler post I noted that the larger part of the outbreak in Europe stems not from Northern Italy, but from Ischgl, a ski resort in Austria. Here is another report, linking Ischgl to England's patient zero, back in Januari(!):


Dad could be UK's coronavirus 'patient zero' after spreading Covid-19 'since January'

Daren Bland, 50, went skiing at Ischgl, Austria, from January 15 to 19 with three friends before returning to the UK where he passed on coronavirus to his wife and children

Britain’s coronavirus patient zero could be a Dad who caught the killer bug at a ski resort in January.

Daren Bland, 50, could have infected his family a month before the fist case of the disease started in the UK.

He went skiing at Ischgl, Austria, from January 15 to 19 with three friends before returning to the UK where he passed on the infection to his wife and children.

The family live in the Maresfield, East Sussex and the virus spread through the quiet town in the weeks leading up to February half term.

Official tests have confirmed Daren did catch coronavirus while at the resort, which places Britain’s outbreak in January, not February.

An investigation is now underway at the resort amid fears they covered up the outbreak - allowing the killer virus to then spread across Europe, which has seen cases rocket.

IT consultant Daren told the Telegraph: "We visited the Kitzloch and it was rammed, with people singing and dancing on the tables.

“People were hot and sweaty from skiing and waiters were delivering shots to tables in their hundreds.

“You couldn't have a better home for a virus.”

All three of Daren’s friends fell ill after returning to Denmark and the US from the trip.

The dad was then struck down by the disease on January 20, and fell ill the with coronavirus symptoms.

Daren told the Telegraph he was ill for ten days and unable to work after being "knocked for six" and "breathless".

Wife Sarah Bland, 49, said: "I was then ill and so was my youngest daughter.

“My symptoms were a temperature and strange flushes, exhaustion which lasted for nearly three weeks intermittently and total brain fog.

“My daughter had a temperature and persistent cough and was off school for two weeks.

“My eldest daughter felt wiped out for a day but it passed quickly.”

The family have not officially been confirmed as having Covid-19 but are calling for a test so experts can "better understand" the spread of the disease.

I personally find this shift of initial infections back to mid Januari noteworthy, as it ties in with my earlier observation that around the same time, a friend had contracted a double pneumonia, from which she recovered, but was left with pulmonary fibrosis in the aftermath. She had not been skiing, nor even left the country. She had however broken her arm recently, causing her to visit the local hospital.

Posted by: Lurk | Mar 26 2020 13:37 utc | 354

Now what could wrong with this idea ?

Hospitals across U.S. consider universal do-not-resuscitate orders for coronavirus patients

link

Posted by: Tom_LX | Mar 26 2020 14:06 utc | 355

This is concerning: RT-PCR testing accuracy is apparently only 71% Science Daily source
This means a false negative rate of 29%.
It isn't entirely bad: it seems likely that the 29% are people with low amounts of nCOV - since no one in the study who falsely tested negative, died.
Still, if these people are infectious - it means the risk and difficulty of controlling nCOV spread is even higher than is thought of now, and that the need to do extreme medical investigation and tracking of potential exposed people is even greater.

Posted by: c1ue | Mar 26 2020 14:19 utc | 356

@ LuBa | 236

Yes, I agree with you.

The Chinese are never responsible. They are not responsible for either (1) creating the coronavirus and leaking it accidentally from their own virus research BSL4 lab in Wuhan, (2) Eating all sorts of mammals from whom a new virus jumps over to humans once very few years. No one got virus from eating mangoes, did they?

No, the Chinese are blameless. We should all thank them for the help they are giving to the countries suffering from the virus for both deaths and economic impact across the world. They are also blameless for now instituting a ban on foreigners entrance to the country but shouting 'racism' when there was talk of banning flights from China in Jan/Feb.

The world would have been spared this disease if the CCP hadn't focused on silencing whistleblowers when the epidemic started. It would also have been much better for the world if everyone would have banned all flights from China in Jan/Feb.

The next time this happens, and for sure, it will because a lot of the viruses in the last few years seem to come with a made in China label - from SARS, to swine flu to avian flu - everyone should just ban any flights from China. Then you guys can just eat your own cooking and not make the whole world suffer!

Posted by: ancientarcher | Mar 26 2020 16:44 utc | 357

@ancientarcher #357
Thank you for dropping by and spouting racist nonsense.
Don't let the door hit your ass on the way out.

Posted by: c1ue | Mar 26 2020 17:53 utc | 358

Updated CCD/DSU numbers.
CCD = calculations on nCOV disease cohorts based on confirmed cases
DSU = calculations on nCOV disease cohorts based on deaths reported
The objective for CCD/DSU is to get a sense on whether there are a lot more unreported cases in some regions vs. others - due to testing, reporting, criteria etc.
I've added #tests per the wikipedia page pointed out by S and a DSU/CCD ratio.
Interestingly, there is a lot of variance between South Korea (most tests per capita by far) vs. New York (most tests/CCD) vs. Italy (most tests/DSU).
IMGUR 03/26 CCD DSU

Posted by: c1ue | Mar 26 2020 18:00 utc | 359

Posted by: Cyril | Mar 24 2020 4:44 utc | 166

In fact, even a huge outbreak in the barracks might not have been enough to warn the higher ranks. So they could have ordered those 300 athletes to Wuhan's Military World Games completely unaware that many of them were carrying a highly infectious disease. The unhealthy athletes proceeded to infect the city. And the rest is history.

It might also explain their dismal performance in the games!

Posted by: foolisholdman | Mar 26 2020 22:25 utc | 360

@c1ue | 358

How come everyone, including Chinese media could refer to the AFRICAN swine flu without allegations of racism, but suddenly referring to a virus by its epicentre/place of origin suddenly becomes racist if it is the Chinese.

But I guess I am wrong. You can't name it the Chinese coronavirus because there have been so many viruses that start from there. Did you know that the Black Death plague that devastated Europe in the middle ages is also thought to originate from there?

made in china! ha!

Posted by: ancientarcher | Mar 27 2020 12:05 utc | 361

@ancientarcher #361
I don't care what you call the virus.
However, your post is very clearly racist and wrong to boot.
Shit happens, deal with it.
Americans catch rabies from bats, they eat prions from deer they've shot, they catch Lyme diseases from deer ticks. American agribusiness created 2 different strains of H1Nx flu - which fortunately didn't transfer to people.
The notion that diseases only come out of China is bullshit.

Posted by: c1ue | Mar 27 2020 13:03 utc | 362

@c1ue | 362

You don't object me calling the virus a chinese coronavirus but still think my post is racist. Why?

I am pointing towards eating habits that lead to a jump of viruses from animals to humans. What you eat and the way you raise the animals you are eating. Have you ever heard of a cabbage or a potato virus jumping over to humans?

In the time gone by, if you had bad habits you or your community would be wiped out by a virus. Now in a globalised world, I am affected because of your bad habits. Shouldn't I point a finger at you? Especially when quite a few papers have previously pointed out the wet markets in Chinese cities as potential new virus breeding grounds?


From what I have seen, nothing has changed wrt the wet markets in China and most probably nothing will. In a few years, again a virus will jump over to humans. It is literally a given.

Is it racism if I point that out?

Posted by: ancientarcher | Mar 27 2020 18:42 utc | 363

Italy got infected by the Chinese expat community in Lombardy, who work in the factories there as cheap labour, producing luxury goods "Made in Italy", see e.g.

https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JEC-11-2015-0052/full/html.

The virus has been in circulation in China since end of last year. The Italian government has an agreement in place which facilitates this importation of cheap Chinese labour.
The renowned german economist Prof. Hans-Werner Sinn lays out the case convincingly:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qac5Kk1dKqU

Obviously globalisation, open borders and the free movement of labour are prime cuplrits in the spread of the virus. But many on the left do not want to hear this, and fear the ramifications once people understand the connection, even though the left is supposed to protect the interests of the working classes, which of course they do not do.

Posted by: frit | Mar 27 2020 20:20 utc | 364

Updates for the SF Bay area are as follows:

Sonoma County:
Active 41 recovered 8 deaths 1 tests 854 total cases 50 Cases reported today ? hospitalized ?

Santa Clara County:
Website not working

Napa County:
Active 3 recovered 0 deaths 0 tests ? total cases 3 Cases reported today ? hospitalized ?

Solono County:
Active 12 recovered ? deaths 0 tests ? total cases 34 cases reported today 0 Hospitalized ?

San Francisco County
Active ? recovered ? deaths 3 tests ? total cases 279 Cases reported today ? hospitalized ?

Santa Cruz County
Active ? recovered ? deaths 0 tests ? total cases 25 Cases reported today ? hospitalized ?

San Mateo County
Active ? recovered ? deaths 6 tests ? total cases 239 Cases reported today ? hospitalized ?

Contra Costa County
Active ? recovered ? deaths 1 tests ? total cases 151 Cases reported today ? hospitalized ?

Marin County:
Active ? recovered ? deaths 1 tests 681 total cases 61 Cases reported today ? hospitalized 9

As you can see in a pandemic reporting is poor. The area is still trying to get its act together. This is the center of Silicone valley and all of the tech gurus. Reported testing is not all testing completed by all labs. A few counties are breaking numbers down by age group.

A few more drive up test centers has popped up. Area health officials are using this time to continue preparations for a worse case scenario.
Cases have basically double from last week. Hospitals are not overrun with patients. Local officials are having a tough time organizing and
Federal help is slow in coming. The crisis is not here yet.


Posted by: dltravers | Mar 28 2020 3:31 utc | 365

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