Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
March 23, 2020

Coronavirus - How To Lift Lockdowns And Why We Should All Wear Masks

While the U.S. president continues to blame China there are more signs that the outbreak started elsewhere:

Some question why Italy was caught off guard when the virus outbreak was revealed on Feb. 21.

Remuzzi says he is now hearing information about it from general practitioners. "They remember having seen very strange pneumonia, very severe, particularly in old people in December and even November," he says. "This means that the virus was circulating, at least in [the northern region of] Lombardy and before we were aware of this outbreak occurring in China."

The sudden appearance of a new type of coronavirus against which no one had any immunity led to a sudden rise of cases with severe respiratory difficulties. These require up to three weeks of ventilator support and intensive care.

Our healthcare systems are not capable of working under such an onslaught. If they get overwhelmed other cases which require intensive care will fall by the wayside. The number of unnecessary deaths will then start to explode.

The only possible way to avoid such an outcome is to minimize contacts between humans to stop the mass infection wave.

When the first wave exploded in Wuhan city the authorities ordered a complete lockdown of the city and of Hubei province. That happened on January 23. Twelve days later, on February 4, the number of new cases in Wuhan started to decline. The Lombardy region in Italy ordered a lockdown on March 9. Twelve days later Italy reported its first decline of new cases.

While the hospitals in Wuhan as well as in Lombardy were for a while overwhelmed the further outbreak has been slowed if not stopped.

(Wuhan is notorious for air pollution but Lombardy is not. The theory that air pollution has contributed to the high number of severe cases in both regions is thus not confirmed.)

Lockdowns have been ordered in several European nations and in several U.S. states. Boeing and other companies have shut down their production facilities in Washington state. Many people are now unemployed. The situations in various states look dire.


bigger

But the lockdowns work and they will limit the rise of the current wave.

The question is now when to lift a lockdown. While twelve days are sufficient to stop an explosive rise in new cases they are likely not sufficient to stop the wave. Another two weeks of lockdown is probably required. After that the restrictions will have to be lifted in several steps to keep the number of new cases manageable.

It may well be necessary to prevent mass events from happening for several more months. Some travel restrictions are also likely to be kept in place. People will be able to get back to work but large meetings should be avoided. Using masks should become a social requirement (see below).

Instead of locking down whole populations one will have to find and lock down clusters.

The health care system needs a new branch that can take care of Covid-19 cases without the danger of infecting other patients. China established local fever clinics where people with flu or Covid symptoms can get tested. Those who have Covid must then be isolated for two weeks to prevent further infections. Their contacts must be actively traced. People who have come into near contact with an acute infected person are part of the cluster and must also be tested and isolated. Those who are put into isolation must be paid. Otherwise some will avoid it and will continue to spread the virus and disease.

These measures can be intensified or relaxed as needed. Their purpose is to keep the number of severe cases manageable. If the system works well we might even be able to eradicate the virus.

We now have tests for the antibodies people develop while they have the disease. Mass production has started. These tests will allow us to identify those who are no longer in danger when they handle a Covid patient.

There are signs that children often have carried the disease but were little affected by it. The antibody tests will show how many of them are already immune. The larger their number the better for the rest of us. Mass testing also seems to show that there are a quite large number of asymptomatic cases among grownups who nonetheless infect others. We should find some measures to prevent that.

A current paper published in Lancet argues that everyone should wear a mask:

Evidence that face masks can provide effective protection against respiratory infections in the community is scarce, as acknowledged in recommendations from the UK and Germany.

However, face masks are widely used by medical workers as part of droplet precautions when caring for patients with respiratory infections. It would be reasonable to suggest vulnerable individuals avoid crowded areas and use surgical face masks rationally when exposed to high-risk areas. As evidence suggests COVID-19 could be transmitted before symptom onset, community transmission might be reduced if everyone, including people who have been infected but are asymptomatic and contagious, wear face masks.

Wearing a mask helps with protecting oneself but even more importantly helps to protect others. One might be carrying and spreading the disease without knowing it. We all release fine droplets when we speak, sneeze or cough. Masks prevent one's droplets from spreading out.

The viruses are quite small and could slip through the pores of a mask. But the droplets they are carried with are larger and are less likely to come through. There are also suggestions that one virus alone is less likely to do harm and that a significant load of viruses is required to start the disease.

There are some cultural consideration that support the call for everyone to wear a mask:

The contrast between face mask use as hygienic practice (ie, in many Asian countries) or as something only people who are unwell do (ie, in European and North American countries) has induced stigmatisation and racial aggravations, for which further public education is needed. One advantage of universal use of face masks is that it prevents discrimination of individuals who wear masks when unwell because everybody is wearing a mask.

There is currently a shortage of professional masks and those that are still available are needed in our hospitals.

But one can also use a scarf, sew oneself a mask or make one's own masks from household items. None will be as good as a professional masks but all will help to keep the number of cases down.

Viruses do not like heat. Soap breaks them apart. One can clean a mask by heating it in an oven at 70°C (160°F) or by washing it with soap.

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Previous Moon of Alabama posts on the issue:

Posted by b on March 23, 2020 at 18:00 UTC | Permalink

Comments
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The material I've read indicates the virus is probably man-made, due to its unlikely genome sequencing. Many countries run biological warfare labs. The only level 4 lab in China is in Wuhan, so it could be an accidental escape.

Other factors:
1. Pollution in China is terrible. In pre-lockdown pictures of Wuhan there is a total smog. I've read the air quality in major Chinese cities is the equivalent of smoking 20 cigarettes a day.

2. Wuhan has one of the most advanced 5G roll outs in the world. 10,000 5G nodes are installed. EMF is toxic to biological systems. The only question is how much damage a given EMF profile causes. 5G is more damaging than 4G.

Northern Italy is also a 5G roll out zone.

To keep things in perspective though:
Based on published death rates, average 'normal' deaths per week in 2019:
Italy circa 12,500, China 190,000.

So COVID-19 deaths to-date = a small fraction of normal deaths. Most of the deaths are the elderly sick who were already dying.

Posted by: Fred | Mar 23 2020 23:02 utc | 101

@oldhippie "Lots of people seen doing something Americans never do. Walking."
So true. It is the same here. The little kids are the most cheerful, adults are all over the place in their reaction. Lady with a dog walked a 25 foot circle around me while crossing the street the other day, felt like a leper right then. Ah well. I find that getting far enough to get out of sight of buildings (lucky enough to have that option here) is just amazing now. The woods/parks never looked so nice.

@TG "I think we should all wear bandannas. Like desperadoes in the old wild west."
Love it! I'm in. Part of me wants to try this while making a deposit at a bank...

Posted by: ptb | Mar 23 2020 23:03 utc | 102

We now have tests for the antibodies people develop while they have the disease. Mass production has started. These tests will allow us to identify those who are no longer in danger when they handle a Covid patient.

More importantly it seems to be a cheap test to find out what the hell is going on. Assume 0.1% prevalence - you need to test 100k people to find 100 positive - even then is it approximate, and reies on your 100k being random not self-selecting people who worry they have it.
If the test is cheap and simple, that gives us proper data on the virus for the first time ever. Tested data is only data on the tested, it tells you nothing about the population.
And mortality data means absolutely nothing at all - we all know that what gets written on the death certificate has nothing to do with the fundamental causes of death, just the last straw.
But don't count on the test being widely available in April - or even working at all - that is hope. Hopefully a gamechanger.


Bit worried that b has swallowed the myth that suppression cuts back on total infections rather than simply pushes them out into later time periods.
That seems to be a common myth being put about recently based on absolutely no evidence whatsoever. The Wuhan cure may simply be herd immunity and clean air. the virus spreads as sparks that jump far and start a long way away. Too many think it starts in one place and then grows like locusts or a forest fire. In fact there is no reason to expect 98% of China to have any greater early exposure to the virus than say the UK had in February.

Posted by: Michael Droy | Mar 23 2020 23:09 utc | 103

Unintended consequences of the lockdown for supply chains-

governments are asking companies to switch over their production lines to manufacture critical COVID-19 supplies, however
Western supply chains buckle as coronavirus lockdowns spread
Reuters LINK


LONDON/MADRID/LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - Freight carriers are struggling to deliver goods by land, sea or air as the coronavirus pandemic forces Western governments to impose lockdowns, threatening supplies of vital products including medicines into the most affected areas, such as Italy.

While China’s draconian steps to stop the spread of the virus are now allowing its economy slowly to come back online, supply chains are backing up in other parts of the world.

Problems ranging from finding enough truck drivers to restrictions on seafarers and a lack of air freight are hitting the smooth flow of goods, freight logistics operators say.

Stockpiling and panic buying by consumers are also adding to strains.

“Supply chain disruption has moved rapidly from east to west,” said Mohammed Esa, chief commercial officer, Europe, with global logistics group Agility.
[.]

One European supplier of active pharmaceutical ingredients used by the industry, who declined to be named, said the business was struggling to get supplies transported by plane.

The U.S. decision to ban foreign visitors has also cut an estimated 85% of U.S. air freight capacity, as vast amounts of goods were transported in the bellies of passenger planes that are now grounded. That has pushing freight costs up five-fold as space for remaining cargo runs is limited, companies directly involved in the trade say.[.]


Posted by: Likklemore | Mar 23 2020 23:10 utc | 104

I want a bandana which I can pull down to use it as my superhero mask and which I can pull down some more to turn it into a mouth mask. I won't go any lower.

Posted by: Tuyzentfloot | Mar 23 2020 23:11 utc | 105


b-- Your "in December and even November" was mistranslation. Per "anony Mar 22 2020 22:49 utc | 111" Dr. R said :

".,,in OCTOBER, November, December,,, " which was further corrected to [in UNZ Review item comment 29.]

29. anonimo11 says:
March 23, 2020 at 3:35 am GMT • 100 Words@occupatio
Thanks for advertising my work Occupatio. Since I did that translation a bit on the fly I want to make some small corrections, highlighted in caps.
It is very true. Do you know what happened? Certain family doctors, who have the best ANTENNAS IN THE TERRITORY, at least the most ABLE AND attentive ones, have told me recently that they were seeing grave cases of pneumonia, which we had never seen THE OTHER YEARS. These pneumonia cases had nothing to do with typical flu pneumonia, they were interstitial pneumonias, they had to do CT, radiography, [to diagnose it], and this was SEEN in October, November, December. So this virus has been CIRCULATING a long time.”

Posted by: chu teh | Mar 23 2020 23:27 utc | 106

I think b has not been very good with this corona virus reporting. He thinks he was wrong on his initial reporting and changed as new facts emerged. however he basically repeats the mainstream line. I certainly am no expert, But then again it seems thee is a wide divergence of views from the "experts" but there is a mainstream conclusion which b agrees with. And the mainstream media is pushing the fear full stop. I still think this is not a specially dangerous virus. almost entirely it is old people dying. almost entirely most of them have pre-existing conditions. My initial take was people who would die fairly soon or might die if they got a bad flu are dying but sooner. I know my wife went to the hospital and acquired a very bad pneumonia. She was on a respirator for over a week and afterwards was diagnosed with COPD. How many of these deaths are people who are sick with corona virus and go to the hospital and get a hospital acquired infection but are counted as dying from COV-18? Virologist have been heavily researching corona viruses since the SARS and MERS outbreaks that didn't kill very many people
I do agree that this virus seems exceptionally communicable. That nature article b cited seemed as if it was written to dismiss the idea that the virus was made in some biolab. I have read an article debunking this Nature article - the writer was trying to make a case that it came from a Chinese lab He agreed it wasn't manufactured by gene editing but was created by passing a corona virus through ferrets who do have the same ACE receptor that humans have and COV-19 uses to infect cells.
Engineered bat virus stirs debate over risky research ...
the announcement by Ralph Baric and co-workers at the University of North Carolina that they had created a chimeric SARS-like virus, which expresses the spike (attachment protein) of a bat coronavirus in a mouse-adapted SARS-CoV backbone (4). As in the cases of the genetically modified H5N1 avian influenza viruses, the newly generated SARS-like virus is potentially an extremely dangerous, possibly pandemic pathogen... That was 5 years ago.
https://www.nature.com/news/engineered-bat-virus-stirs-debate-over-risky-research That was 2015.
I agree with the uselessness of bioweapons as a military operation. The economic blowback we are now seeing is proof But But what if this global crisis is exactly what those who want to totally control us would want to happen. It is precipitating the roll out of medical martial law. There are laws on the books that give extraordinary powers in the event of a global epidemic or even a pandemic. Not to mention in the US the Continuity of Government provisions strengthened massively after 9/11. Every year the state of emergency triggered by 9/11 has been renewed. Mandatory vaccinations for everyone. Quarantine powers granted The initiation of martial law. Now you don't have to be a terrorist but just said to be infected and away you go.
I don't think COV-19 is the one to justify the full implementation but it is another giant step for setting up the population for the full implementation.

Posted by: gepay | Mar 23 2020 23:28 utc | 107

Here's the Unz Review site reference:

https://www.unz.com/article/last-man-standing/

Posted by: chu teh | Mar 23 2020 23:29 utc | 108

B. used an AQI map which appears to be a realtime map, it shows the wind, but you have to look for an average one. Most are realtime.

Posted by: Tuyzentfloot | Mar 23 2020 23:31 utc | 109

theres some things that education and intelligence don't seem to be able to teach; you could call it common sense or a gut feeling. I think an awful lot off people see whats going on, but the 'intelligent' people and the experts always lead the argument. Theres people on here talking about zinc, like when Grenfell tower burned to the ground-intelligent people talking about whether it was a hotpoint fridge or a Bosche, and what is the breaking capacity on pre-EU legislations for gain stage amp impedance on commercial refrigerators. Seriously, you lot are all psychos.

To get to the reality and the truth in a world of deception we must just ask ourselves some questions-

Who is going to gain from all this?
What 'emergency' laws will be repealed, if any?(The new bill being passed through the UK house of parliament doesn't make for nice reading, and most of the key elements are NOT part of the sunset clause)
Will this see national and personal debt increase or decrease?
Will this damage or benefit the rich?
Will this mean less or more basic human interactions, like hugging, for us all, in the future?
Whats happening in Albania now?
How many people have died from corona virus in Albania?
Will this 'epidemic' lead to more or less poverty?
Will it lead to EVEN more homelessness in the west?
Will it lead to more physical and mental restrictions?
Will the drug industry benefit or suffer?
How many people died from swine flu?
How many people in the US alone contracted swine flu?
Was the world shut down during swine flu?
Will this lead to the demand for more internet bandwidth? eg. 5G
Will video or remote linking become a standard in the legal and education systems?

Ask yourself these questions. What people with common sense would do is, join the massive obvious dots staring them in the face and say yep, theres far too many gains for the powerful/rich and far too many losses for the average Joe for something else not to be going on here. Its clearly a giant fake news story the like of which has never been seen in history. Whether its planned, who started it, all these ridiculous points being discussed here are irrelevant; is it worth it to POTENTIALLY save a couple of hundred lives? And don't you dare call me callous or flippant when you clearly don't give too hoots about the amount of lives lost in the innumerable wars that our western governments sponsor, like say Yemen, where 85,000 children did actually die. Of starvation. And weaponised viruses, payed for by YOUR government. Because you've all come here because of this terrible apocalyptic virus that is NOTHING compared to even sine flu let alone the Spanish flu.

What it is, is academics, intelligent and educated people who are commenting here, don't have any balls. And your all actually terrified right now. Because if the flu. Think what its like being in a country ravaged by war because the' intelligent' citizens of the aggressor states were too busy arguing about refrigerators and zinc to ask their own governments to stop bombing innocent people.

Germany's cases are significantly less btw, because they have 25,000 spare beds in their hospitals, Italy has 4,000, the UK 5,000. Their hospitals are clean and and you don't automatically contract pneumonia by entering them.

: (

Posted by: danny | Mar 23 2020 23:38 utc | 110

@68 - antares

I got the "flu" in November 2019 and I had the same symptoms as Coronavirus - I thought it was going to kill me - and while I missed some work - work demanded me back - and so I worked through some terrible times. Everyone at work was sick with different levels of symptoms. To this day I have still not 100% recovered - but I am poor and have no health insurance - and, well, everybody has been exposed for months so it doesn't even matter anymore. No one has died - but everyone has a low level persistent respiratory illness.

Is is it an engineered bio-weapon or natural? From what I have read - I believe it is an engineered bio-weapon which is being used by the elites to fight a battle for World Control.

The Federal Reserve - which is neither - is now over 100 years old and the rest of the World is questioning their fiat currency. With the Saudi ARAMCO IPO - I'm guessing that will end the Federal Reserve Saudi oil backed Petrodollar. People seem to forget that the Saudi oil backed Petrodollar was the result of President Richard Millhouse Nixon repudiation of the 1945 Bretton Woods agreement. The cause for the repudiation was because French President Charles DeGaulle was no fool and was trading in massive amounts of fiat dollars for physical gold.

"On August 15, 1971, President Nixon announced on TV 3 dramatic changes in economic policy. He imposed a wage-price freeze. He ended the Bretton Woods international monetary system. And he imposed a temporary surcharge (tariff) on all imports. The Bretton Woods system was created towards the end of World War II and involved fixed exchange rates with the U.S. dollar as the key currency - but also a role for gold linked to the dollar at $35/ounce. The system began to falter in the 1960s because of an excess of dollars flowing out of the U.S. which foreign central banks had to absorb. A run on gold in 1968 was stemmed by a patch on Bretton Woods known as the two-tier gold system. All of this was ended unilaterally by the Nixon decision. After a brief attempt to create a modified fixed exchange rate system, the world moved to flexible rates".

https://youtu.be/iRzr1QU6K1o

Interesting to note that the nuclear weapons which were recently removed from Turkey wound up in Poland and the Baltics. This is a fight between the Elites - the peoples are Pawns - and I believe bio-weapons - silent weapons of war - have been deployed. Destroy a Country's economy/people and you *WIN*!

Posted by: Tim E. | Mar 23 2020 23:52 utc | 111

@ Posted by: john brewster | Mar 23 2020 22:11 utc | 90

No, they are true Christians. This is who Christians really are: a bunch of hypocrites who freely interpret the Bible the way they see fit.

--//--

The Democratic Party has blocked the Senate's second attempt to a relief package:

Democrats block SECOND attempt to pass coronavirus stimulus in US Senate

If that makes Americans here feel better, at this point in time this package is merely a formality: the Fed has announced today at morning that it would be bailouting the American economy infinitely and indefinitely.

Do I think the West will win the war against the COVID-19? Definitely yes.

However, it will arise from this war weaker and smaller in the geopolitical field. China will emerge as the winner.

Maybe, if small and medium (zombie) business is destroyed with this crisis, the West may find some room for creative destruction and have another post-war miracle. But that's a huge maybe, because big business is also knee-deep in debt.

Posted by: vk | Mar 23 2020 23:55 utc | 112

Then there is the coincidences of Bill Gates and the Event 201 in Oct 2019 laying out the almost exact scenario that is unfolding today. The Coincidence of the US military being in Wuhan at the exact time the pandemic is supposed to start in China. There is the coincidence of Iran being the first country outside of Asia to have a deadly outbreak. There is the coincidence that the US 2018-19 flu outbreak killed 80,000 people when usually is 20,000, That Fort Detrick was closed down in 2018. then there was the incredible incompetence of the CDC sending out tests that didn't work. I read of one researcher that was actively inhibited from testing. and the FDA made research laboratories go through bureaucratic hoops to get their tests being able to be used until the US finally said this is serious weeks and weeks later. Coincidence theorists have no problems with this but I see it not as a bug but a feature. There has been 100s of millions of dollars spent on Corona virus research since SARS. I know China is a big place with a lot of farm animals but the number of new virus outbreaks in their agriculture has been staggering. And the US has used biowarfare against China before - in the Korean War. It has used bio warfare against Cuba and Nicaraugua. And there are idiots in charge of what tries and fails to be US foreign policy.

Posted by: gepay | Mar 24 2020 0:03 utc | 113

Again: if nCOV was really already in the US in November - where was the surge in hospitalizations? Regardless of age, ~20% of those who get it, get pneumonia or worse and need hospital care.
We don't even have that right now despite a huge number of cases.
Maybe the US and Germany are different - we'll see in about 2 weeks.

Posted by: c1ue | Mar 24 2020 0:24 utc | 114

Boris Johnson locks down U.K. ! I’m getting a bad feeling about this becouse - - -
It’s the wrong people doing the right thing for the wrong reason,
Yes it’s a bio weapon, yes it’s a controlled demolition and yes it’s the end of life for the poorest 50%

Posted by: Mark2 | Mar 24 2020 0:24 utc | 115

b,
You do brilliant analyses and I check your blog almost daily for years.
But in my opinion you’re being too quick to dismiss bioengineering and weaponisation theories - as you do in your recent 19 March post https://www.moonofalabama.org/2020/03/false-claims-about-the-novel-coronavirus-and-how-to-debunk-them.html

See my post #66 on this current thread.

Dr Paul Cottrell has a lengthy video where he line by line dissects the Nature article (Andersen et al) which you cite in your 19 March post for evidence that dismisses the bioweapon theory. He shows the article to be wrong on facts and disingenuous:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=e2kJH7vOVBU

The video is long and best of one has the open access Nature article to read as Cottrell dissects it. Skip to the 1hr 40’ mark for more summing up.

Could you study the analyses of, or even interview, Dr Cottrell and Professor Boyle and then provide us with your thoughts on their quite plausible theories?

Posted by: PJB | Mar 24 2020 0:25 utc | 116

Again: if nCOV was really already in the US in November - where was the surge in hospitalizations?

Because most in US can't afford Hospitals or even have health insurance.

Posted by: Tim E. | Mar 24 2020 0:29 utc | 117

They love to flaunt there evel depraved attacks. Some times even beforehand !
Here’s ‘another coincidence ‘

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VG3WkiL0d_U

Posted by: Mark2 | Mar 24 2020 0:41 utc | 118

Bernhard,

Here’s an article from the LA Times that seems to backup your theory that the coronavirus may indeed have its roots in Italy instead of China (see link below). If you come up against a paywall, here is a snippet from this article that touches on this very subject followed by a comment of mine in brackets:

“Getting vaccinated against the flu is important because a coronavirus outbreak that strikes in the middle of a flu epidemic is much more likely to overwhelm hospitals and increases the odds that the coronavirus goes undetected. This was probably a factor in Italy, a country with a strong anti-vaccine movement, he said, referring to Michael Levitt, a Nobel laureate and Stanford biophysicist.”

[ Yes, and how long did the virus go undetected in Italy, I ask? Nevertheless, I also truly believe that if you come down with lower lobe pneumonia following exposure to the coronavirus, being vaccinated against the pneumococcal virus will greatly lessen the severely of COVID-19. After all, it is often the case that a secondary infection does more harm to you than the primary infection does. So if you are protected against getting a secondary infection such as the pneumococcal virus, it is much easier for you to recover from the primary infection that you have, which in this particular case would be the coronavirus. That’s true despite not having a vaccine against it. This probably explains why Angela Merkel decided or was advised to get vaccinated against the pneumococcal virus in the middle of a novel coronavirus pandemic. Who would have thought to do that? Though not relevant to my argument, Merkel soon found out that the doctor who vaccinated her came up positive for the coronavirus, which resulted in her being self-quarantined at home. Just a random thought of mine.]

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-03-22/coronavirus-outbreak-nobel-laureate

Posted by: Cynthia, The First | Mar 24 2020 0:46 utc | 119

Re Cyril @10
I think the CDC numbers of 160 to 200 million infected are inflated (remember they are projections, estimations, as are the German numbers)

From other internet sources: China total 81,093 or 56 total cases per million; death 3,270 recovered 72,703
US total 43,651 or 132 total cases per million; death 545

Given that a University of Washington public health researcher identified Covid19 in the general popultation in February, we have been harboring this virus for at least two months if not longer; patient zero from Snohomish Wa was not the first and clearly, person to person transmission was evident in February. When she reported this to the CDC she was told to stand down immediately. Again, Why? Why bankrupt our working classes with 9 to 12 week lockdowns rather than getting hospitals, clinics, and families the safety products they need to move around the community (e.g. to work) - gloves, masks, sanitizer, gowns, etc. The lockdown appears to be a drastic move to compensate for a public health catastrophe as regards preparedness, and is ongoing insofar as the aforementioned products are not available to the public. Also Gilead has paused provision of their HIV drug and supplies of chloroquinine, once readily available are now hard to find. Again, why? And, not surprisingly, access to tests is limited even for our exceptional frontline medical staffs. Furthermore, no statistics are available regarding the reliability or validity of the existing tests - major numbers of false positives or negatives can have drastic consequences. Why?


Posted by: abierno | Mar 24 2020 0:46 utc | 120

Far too much nonsense being repeated ceaselessly in every thread. This might be my last comment on this topic as well. I don't have the time to deal with any of it. I'm confident China will survive and maybe Russia too and that's enough for me even though I don't live in either place.

To me it looks like MoA is intentionally being destroyed.

Many are not basing their opinions or assumptions or even speculation on either solid evidence (WHO, ECDC, Chinese CDC etc.) or solid examples (China, Singapore, Viet Nam) or self-congruent logic.

As an example anyone who thinks this pandemic started elsewhere than Wuhan need to explain why it didn't turn into an epidemic in whatever place they're talking about and it better be good and not invoke nonsense that has already be debunked.

One doctor finding something suspicious or unusual is not proof of anything. Events happening at some point in time does not mean they are connected; how much do people ignore when they make the connection? Close to everything? That's cherry-picking. One has to be more stringent than that if one doesn't want to be branded as a raving lunatic :(

Harsh? What about true?

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Mar 24 2020 0:59 utc | 121

40 Stay at home order starts in Denver tomorrow. Rec shops are closed.
N95 masks are the minimum you'll need according to information I've read. Anything below that standard is just decoration.

Posted by: liveload | Mar 24 2020 1:00 utc | 122

So those predicted mortality statistics ! Do they included the vonrable 70 million ‘displaced persons ‘ created by western greed and violence ? They will surly die.
How about the mass starvation about to occur within the next 12 months and beyound ?
Remember hungry / desperate people will do desperate things ! The forthcoming violent civil unrest will result in large mortality on both sides ! Poor and rich.
Will this be within the coronavirus mortality statistics ?

Posted by: Mark2 | Mar 24 2020 1:19 utc | 123

It seems that the USA will soon surpass Italy and China to become number one!

This seems to be the aim of DJT.

MAGA!

Posted by: CarlD | Mar 24 2020 1:20 utc | 124

Many doctors have started to connect the dots.

Not only case correlation with coronavirus is not causation of their deaths but also as mentioned all the tests are made not among random population as they should to eliminate methodological data bias but among those who are symptomatic or been in proximity of those diagnosed or symptomatic of Coronavirus.

And hence numbers derived from such sample are likely questionable as I will elaborate later.

There is another aspect of likely misclassification of early cases starting in December 2019 and January 2020 as a flu while may indicate mortality rate of SARS-Cov2 similar to that of 2019-2020 seasonal flu pandemic we are still under. Here is excerpt from congressional testimony as reported by Counterpunch :

Congressman Harley Rouda asked him this: “So, we could have people in the United States dying for what appears to be influenza, when in fact it could be the coronavirus or COVID-19? Redfield replied that, “Some cases have been actually diagnosed that way in the United States to date.”

The revelation passed without further questioning. The U.S. media paid no attention. News services in China pounced on the statement.

Epidemiologists ought to have been interested in the timing of the epidemic’s onset in the United States. Vagueness on the matter, as suggested by Redfield’s testimony, betrays a remarkable lack of scientific curiosity.

What the public knows is that the first case of imported Coronavirus showed up on January 21. The first cases of possible community-acquired coronavirus appeared on February 26. On February 14 the CDC indicated persons with influenza-like symptoms would be tested for COVID 19 in various U.S. cities.


The results of any testing weren’t made public, although Redfield’s testimony may allude to them.

The possibility emerges that U.S. people were being infected in January, not long after Chinese authorities on December 31, 2019 informed the World Health Organization of an outbreak of a new form of coronavirus infection. Suspicion prevails in China that the epidemic may have manifested first in someplace other than China.

https://www.counterpunch.org/2020/03/20/fighting-covid-19-in-cuba-china-and-the-united-states/

This lack of curiosity smells rather like political cover-up as other numerous reports suggest.

Another mystery is inability by Chinese scientists to find patient Number One who supposedly contracted SARS-Cov2 from yet to be identified and found animal in which organism supposed fusion happen of two old and known viruses from Betabatcoronavirus group one of them was original SARS-Cov of epidemic of 2002-2004 in China and 29 other countries.

From CNN:

Comparative genomic analyses have shown that SARS-CoV-2 belongs to the group of Betacoronaviruses and that it is very close to SARS-CoV, responsible for an epidemic of acute pneumonia which appeared in November 2002 in the Chinese province of Guangdong and then spread to 29 countries in 2003. A total of 8,098 cases were recorded, including 774 deaths. It is known that bats of the genus Rhinolophus (potentially several cave species) were the reservoir of this virus and that a small carnivore, the palm civet (Paguma larvata), may have served as an intermediate host between bats and the first human cases...

From AP.

The source of the virus is actually not known. The patient number 1, the person who first carried the virus, has not been found. The Wuhan wet market where exotic animals are sold was not the source of the outbreak:

The paper, written by a large group of Chinese researchers from several institutions, offers details about the first 41 hospitalized patients who had confirmed infections with what has been dubbed 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV). In the earliest case, the patient became ill on 1 December 2019 and had no reported link to the seafood market, the authors report.

“No epidemiological link was found between the first patient and later cases,” they state. Their data also show that, in total, 13 of the 41 cases had no link to the marketplace. “That’s a big number, 13, with no link,” says Daniel Lucey, an infectious disease specialist at Georgetown University.

Another issue is so called “excess mortality” due to pandemic and here over 3000 deaths in China in last about 5 months barely registers on mortality gauge as it is moderated among other factors by deaths attributed to flu which in China averaged at least 60,000-100,000 a year increasing as population is aging.

In US alone Flu pandemic is still in full swing with about 30,000 dead already in 2019-2020 season to end in two months.

The same lack of evident excess mortality is showing in Europe in the midst of coronavirus pandemic.

Here is website that tracks EU deaths based of government death records.


http://euromomo.eu/

Some doctors as well as former public heath officials like Dr. Wolfgang Wodarg from Schleswig-Holstein in Germany staring questioning lethality of the SARS-Cov2 and methodology of calculating mortality rates not based on scientific principle of random testing following distribution of age and locales of population at large and acquiring sample of minimum 7% (22 millions tested in US ) of entire population a week to be a representative sample of pandemic development and population response to it including infection rates, recovery and death rates.

Such or similar statistical modeling of flu pandemic produces average mortality rate of 0.1% while locally and within old age groups it can be much higher even near 1% similar to current numbers for Coronavirus calculated using not random sample but mostly volunteer, higher probability of infection sample groups in hospitals or aware of being potentially exposed to virus in US, in the range only of about 50,000 total to date, far less than anything that would scientifically provide mortality rate with any meaningful statistical confidence.

Glasgow scientists study between 2013-2017 found between 7% and 14% percent admitted to hospitals with respiratory problems had been infected with coronavirus among many other identified viruses like flu, rhino and unidentified viruses.

Additional points were raised about what turned out to be internal research purposed Coronavirus test frantically adopted by WHO.

The test itself coming from Berlin’s Charite hospital that was targeting original SARS-Cov of 2002-2004 epidemic (not SARS-Cov2 ) to see if contagion was spread in Germany.

And hence it is not entirely clear how many false positive results are coming from the fact that original SARS-Cov already spread around the world (documented in 29 countries) and exists in many communities controlled but not completely eradicated by newly acquired immunity to SARS-Cov.

CDC and corporate labs in US are allowed using their own tests often classified or patented making correct interpretation of those tests by doctors and public likely incompatible, extremely difficult sometimes nearly impossible to interpret adding to confusion.


All of those serious questions combined with utter lack of desperately needed funding for medical research and remediation is scandalous and under circumstances uncalled for and detrimental to society while the $3 trillion corporate bailout in itself questions entire pandemic narrative as supposedly calamitous of biblical proportions supposedly justifying complete shutting down of economy and society under authoritarian extra constitutional rules.

People must be rational by scientifically analyzing hard data and apply analysis of scientific material whatever outcome and not succumb to anxiety or panic based on fate in judgments or predictions of corrupted fraudulent authorities including corporate medical authorities who serve only class interests- they surely ain’t the working class interests and have no concern for public health.

Posted by: Allen | Mar 24 2020 1:29 utc | 126

Exaggerated case fatality rate (CFR):

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/eci.13223

European Journal of Clinical Investigation
“Coronavirus disease 2019: the harms of exaggerated information and non‐evidence‐based measure
John P.A. Ioannidis
First published: 19 March 2020


Early reported CFR figures seem exaggerated.

The most widely quoted CFR has been 3.4%, reported by WHO dividing the number of deaths by documented cases in early March.

This ignores undetected infections and the strong age-dependence of CFR. The most complete data come from Diamond Princess passengers, with CFR=1% observed in an elderly cohort; thus, CFR may be much lower than 1% in the general population; probably
higher than seasonal flu (CFR=0.1%), but not much so.

Observed crude CFR in South Korea and in Germany, , the countries with most extensive testing, is 0.9% and 0.2%, respectively as of March 14 and crude CFR in Scandinavian countries is
about 0.1%. Some deaths of infected, seriously ill people will occur later, and these deaths have not been counted yet. However even in these countries many infections probably remain undiagnosed. Therefore, CFR may be even lower rather than higher than these crude estimate

Posted by: Pft | Mar 24 2020 1:34 utc | 127

@97 Richard Steven Hack

"The number of idiots everywhere on the Internet proclaiming the following:
1) The virus won't prove to be any more dangerous than ordinary flu..."

Yeah sure, we should have just shut up and believed...

Russia interfered in the election
Russia invaded Crimea
Russia invaded Georgia
Iran is making nuclear bombs
The Skripals were poisoned by Russian agents
Assad is using chemical weapons
Saddam has weapons of mass destruction

"etc, etc., ad nauseum.
I could go on and on. The number of people who just *have to have an opinion* is staggering. And they'll argue that they're right until the cows come home."

@99 Michael Weddington

"The virus deniers here remind me of the global warming deniers."

Why not holocaust deniers? In fact, since you didn't say holocaust deniers you must be an antisemite holocaust denier nazi, right? It's not like you two are at CNN's website, you're in the alternative media, where we actually questions things instead of just having blind faith.

Posted by: SharonM | Mar 24 2020 1:41 utc | 128

@ Posted by: headlineurl | Mar 24 2020 0:48 utc | 121

Bergamo's case (or Lombardy's, depending on your point of view) is suspected on a football game that wasn't cancelled.

At the time, UEFA still was reluctant to cancel/suspend the Champions League, and the game between Valencia and Atalanta was held in an empty stadium. Since there are minimum quality standards for stadiums to receive knockout stage games in the Champions League regulations, Atalanta (the team from Bergamo) had to receive Valencia (from Valencia, Spain) at the San Siro stadium (which is in Milan, Lombardy's main city and maybe also its capital).

As every epidemologist and sports marketing guy knows, just because you hold an important game in an empty stadium, it doesn't mean its fans won't dislocate to the surroundings of the stadium in order to follow the game "in the atmosphere" at a close by pub or even tailgating. Brazil committed the same mistake by holding cancelling games in São Paulo but not in the smaller cities in its hinterland (with closed stadiums): one week later, they had to cancel all the games, regardless of the city it was held, as it was clear a lot of fans were dislocating inter-city.

Anyway, that's exactly what happened in the Atalanta vs. Valencia game: nothing less than 40,000 Atalanta fans travelled from Bergamo to Milan. It is hypothetised those fans brought the virus to Bergamo from Milan, which made the city one of the hardest stricken by the virus outside Lombardy. One third of Valencia's staff was tested positive to the virus, matching the timing of the game. Indeed, I watched the game live on tv, and I remember perfectly that, at the time, there was no worries about the SARS CoV-2 hitting Europe at a significant level at all.

Posted by: vk | Mar 24 2020 1:44 utc | 129

More than 250,000 people are hospitalized for pneumonia annually in the US.  The mortality rate for pneumonia in the US population (all ages) is 15.1 deaths per 100,000.
An estimated 50,000 Americans die of pneumonia annually (137/DAY). 7500 Americans per day die of all causes.

In Lombardy, the precrisis total ICU capacity was approximately 720 beds (2.9% of total hospital beds at a total of 74 hospitals); these ICUs usually have 85% to 90% occupancy during the winter months. The number of intensive care units has dropped by half over the last 20 years, dropping from the highest to the lowest number of beds per capita in Europe to around 230 per 100,000 inhabitants (23 , 000 beds in lombardi -700 icu beds) with population of 10 million

The US has 15% ICU based on total hospital beds and runs at 60-77% capacity depending on hospital size (higher in winter months)

The United States has 25 ICU beds per 100 000 people (75,000), as compared with 5 -7 per 100 000 in the United Kingdom and Italy

U.S. ventilator capacity exceeds its number of ICU beds, according to data from the Society of Critical Care Medicine

Tests being used to detect COVID 19 are self validated by the manufacturer. FDA states they have not review the validation data. There is no reported specificity. A chinese study showed expanded testing of those with mild symptoms or asymptomatic were false positives. More testing yields more cases and deaths. Even with influenza only 1% of those who get it are laboratory tested.

Populations unable to think can not maintain a Democracy and Freedom, and will be doomed to serfdom. Lock Step will pave the way for the transition.

Posted by: Pft | Mar 24 2020 1:49 utc | 130

Sunny Runny Burger
The only question is who and how rather than where. If a local animal in China is found to be carrying the bug, then that would mostly settle the who and how. But until that time, options are open.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 24 2020 1:53 utc | 131

vk 130: ... suspected on a football game that wasn't cancelled.

In USA, there are now a lot of cases in Louisiana. They may have been caused by mardi-gras celebrations held on Feb. 25th.

On March 4th President Trump infamously told the nation that coronavirus was nothing to worry about - most would only get a mild illness.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Mar 24 2020 1:56 utc | 132

@Pft 128

good points re: Germany and South Korea.

However, as has been pointed out here by others, a 0.1% fatality rate for a disease that is completely new, will have a far larger result (i.e. enough to knock out the hospital system in most countries) compared to a 0.1% in a "new" seasonal flu, which is really a small variation of something everyone already had exposure to for years.

1000 cases of pneumonia per million people, if it happens within 2 months on each continent (as would be the case is there were no isolation etc), would be catastrophic.

Also Germany for example looks like it is now 0.4%

Posted by: ptb | Mar 24 2020 1:57 utc | 133

gepay | Mar 23 2020 23:28 utc | 107:

It appears the Nature article has been flushed down the memory hole.

Posted by: Ian2 | Mar 24 2020 1:59 utc | 134

Iranian Journalist Who Did Not Believe in the Epidemic and Licked Shrines for Hype Dies of Coronavirus (Komsomolskaya Pravda, March 23)

The pandemic has divided people into three camps: those who soberly assess the situation, those who exaggerate the danger and those who downplay it. The latter group is growing, and there are supporters of the “conspiracy theory” among the journalists. In Iran, for example, media representatives, in order to prove that the coronavirus does not exist, licked shrines, refused to wear masks on principle, arguing that the disease was a fiction and the authorities needed to do something to calm down the alarmists.

The journalist Hamed Jalali Kashane participated in such experiments. He accused the government of intentionally intimidating citizens with the coronavirus in order to influence election results, and even admitted that he himself would like to become infected “for hype”. He said this after he was hospitalized with a fever.

“Well, I’ve been hospitalized with a flu. I wish it was the coronavirus. I could laugh and create some hype,” the journalist wrote on February 21 on Twitter.

It really was a coronavirus, and on February 29 Kashane has died. YJC agency has confirmed his death.

[video of the licking]

Posted by: S | Mar 24 2020 1:59 utc | 135

In my area of 1.5 million people in the SF Bay Area the confirmed cases have moved up from 60 to 70. Deaths still sit a one cruise ship victim. Went by the County hospital today and the tents are not crowded with victims. The EMS channels are pretty quiet. They always ask a virus victim to meet them outside. EMS will not enter the residence if they do not have to enter. I have heard only one EMS call for Corona in 15 hours of listening.

Meanwhile Musk delivered 1000 ventilators to LA county. Millions of masks are being rounded up by the state from other companies and agencies. The State has delivered 21 million masks to hospitals from their own stockpile. The State is chartering flight from China to deliver supplies.

The state is looking to add 30,000 hospital beds. Hotels have made 8,000 rooms available to the City of San Francisco for quarantine victims. Of those 8000 rooms the city has leased 60 and is using only 30.

People rushed into the parks in large numbers on Sunday causing many agencies to shut the parks down for a few weeks. Some parks are still open. People are staying home being patient. The roads are light and the night sky is very impressive with fewer jets polluting the sky.

We are coping. Cases are rising and people are dying but it is nothing like Italy. I think we have two weeks left of this in my area then we can let the virus run. I am sure it is running now and most people are coping with mild conditions at home. Hopefully they will protect and keep isolated those with underlying conditions, in nursing homes, jails, and similar conditions for at least 6 months.


Posted by: dltravers | Mar 24 2020 2:04 utc | 136

gepay | Mar 23 2020 23:28 utc | 107:

Found the Nature.com article which I guess I can't post the actual link (or it went to moderation). Anyway, add the following in quotes "-1.18787" to the end of the original link. They've added a Disclaimer now.

Posted by: Ian2 | Mar 24 2020 2:13 utc | 137

VietnamVet @94:

You touch upon a thought that lately obsesses me: The only numbers that matters are the mortality rates, broken down by age group and risk factors, for those without access to medical care -- because that's precisely the situation we in the USA (at least we who are not named Tom Hanks or Harvey Weinstein) will be facing in about two weeks.

Posted by: corvo | Mar 24 2020 2:13 utc | 138

Talking to my daughter this morning. Husband and wife returns from overseas. No testing an quarantine for people coming . They go home do whatever, husband feels a bit crook, tests positive for coronavirus. Hospitalized, on a ventilated and will soon die. She is at a private hospital and this is at the public hospital. no medical staff working with this patient wore protective gear.
I had thought we where following China closely on dealing with this but man was I wrong. Total fuckwits collecting seashells on the seashore as the tsunami approaches.
Sent my daughter links to the pdf handbook put out by the Chinese doctors who worked on the frontlines. Covers PPE and much else. She is now passing it around to the other nurses.
Doctors in Australia had started using chloroquine if they could not obtain other antivirals. Apparently the government has now stopped them from doing this.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 24 2020 2:13 utc | 139

12 days per case seems to be the going rate. However, 'patient zero's' twelve days will have passed long before the last case, even in a contained geographic area (weeks? months?). Basically need all ins and outs to and from the infection area to be sealed and provide immediate medical, social, economic, security, and welfare relief to the affected population. For the prescribed duration of time across the entire zone, until clean tests reach 100%.

Posted by: Joshua | Mar 24 2020 2:19 utc | 140

correction to above 134... 1000 fatal cases per million. Antibiotics don't work on this pneumonia.

Posted by: ptb | Mar 24 2020 2:28 utc | 141

Germany reports widely different mortality numbers than most other countries with developed epidemic.

In severe cases Corona causes hypoxemia, significantly lowered white blood cell count and elevated blood pressure, which greatly exacerbate any comorbidity or secondary infection. In these cases fatality can be attributed to comorbidity (Germans only add respiratory failure fatalities towards Corona death toll) or to Corona (while most other countries count any death of a Corona positive patient).

Posted by: Passer by | Mar 24 2020 2:43 utc | 142

burkas to become derigeur?

Posted by: brian | Mar 24 2020 2:49 utc | 143

97
'While your frustration is quite understandable, I would say over here on MoA most are trying their level best to figure out what is going on'

oh?

Posted by: brian | Mar 24 2020 2:54 utc | 144

Posted by: Pft | Mar 24 2020 1:34 utc | 128

CFR for all infected people (passengers and personnel)on Diamond Princess is 1,1, and not only for an "elderly cohort". I suspect these people also had higher average socioeconimic status (SES) and thus being more healthy than the average population.

Some countries (Germany) only add respiratory failure fatalities towards Corona death toll. Most others add comorbidity exacerbated by Corona infection as well.

Posted by: Passer by | Mar 24 2020 2:55 utc | 145

Passer by
That appears to be what both Germany and US are doing. It is bullshit to me as many of these so called co morbidity deaths most likely would have lived a much longer useful and interesting (to them) life if not for coronavirus.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 24 2020 2:56 utc | 146

101
'The material I've read indicates the virus is probably man-made, due to its unlikely genome sequencing. Many countries run biological warfare labs. The only level 4 lab in China is in Wuhan, so it could be an accidental escape.'

chinese make a bio weapon that targets chinese?
unlikely!

Posted by: brian | Mar 24 2020 2:57 utc | 147

Here's a weird finding by some US epidemiologists. The data for "influenza like illness" this flu season is off the charts. Some states reported the highest in 22 seasons early in the season (starting around October and November). The crazy part is that many of these cases tested negative for the flu. See the graphs.

https://github.com/reichlab/ncov/blob/master/analyses/ili-labtest-report.pdf

Posted by: Doryphore | Mar 24 2020 3:01 utc | 148

Also, the facemasks (en masse) are most useful to keep Mr. and/or Mrs. cough and sneeze from spraying everything down with infected body fluids, not the other way around.

Posted by: Joshua | Mar 24 2020 3:13 utc | 149

' The State is chartering flight from China to deliver supplies.'

so china is helping a USA that wants to sink them?

Posted by: brian | Mar 24 2020 3:16 utc | 150

I mean, real full on airborne pathogen/poison means full hazmat suit, not silly looking mask, right?

Posted by: Joshua | Mar 24 2020 3:16 utc | 151

Decent masks and proper disinfection/decon are still a very, very good idea, mind you.

Posted by: Joshua | Mar 24 2020 3:18 utc | 152

@69 I also came down with a very nasty cold/flu/cough - the worst I can remember having- in late October. I had flown from Boise to DC (National Airport) on October 20, then returned home on the 24th by which time I could feel I was coming down with the crud. Felt like I was just kind of sinking into the floor. Never much of a fever. I remember it was pouring rain for the first couple days in DC, super-humid in the Metro and elsewhere. The flu lasted around 3 weeks. Very bad stuff.

Posted by: castilleja | Mar 24 2020 3:23 utc | 153

@abierno | Mar 24 2020 0:46 utc | 120

I think the CDC numbers of 160 to 200 million infected are inflated (remember they are projections, estimations, as are the German numbers)

From other internet sources: China total 81,093 or 56 total cases per million; death 3,270 recovered 72,703
US total 43,651 or 132 total cases per million; death 545

You get China's lower numbers if you lock the country down, as China did.

I think you're refusing to understand a critical fact: that Covid-19 is novel. It's brand new to humans, which means very few have much immunity to it. Therefore it can spread enormously, infecting huge percentages of the total population. Even if its nominal death rate is low (and that is not established), that is completely overwhelmed by the sheer number of infected.

Thus many people will die from Covid, far more than will die from all the flus combined -- far more, maybe ten times more, or worse, than all the American deaths from the Vietnam War. Can you imagine ten Vietnams, or twenty? That is why the novel coronavirus is not just a flu.

Posted by: Cyril | Mar 24 2020 3:32 utc | 154

From the New York Post:

1) On "vaping illness"

I suspect that the mysterious "vaping illness" seen is the US in late 2019 was caused by a strain of the SARS-COV-2 virus. The symptoms are identical. Americans however never tried to isolate a virus.

Doctors say vaping could make coronavirus worse for young people

US doctors are reportedly eyeing vaping as a possible factor in the alarming number of hospitalizations among young adults diagnosed with COVID-19.

Medical experts began floating the theory last week after the US Centers for Disease Control reported that up to 20% of people hospitalized with the virus were between ages 20 and 44.

This is the "limited hangout mode" the media goes into when the truth is just about to come out. The article admits that vaping increases the risk of developing COVID-19 symptoms and needing hospitalization, but cannot admit that "vaping illness" was caused by a virus. Time published a similar story: Is There Actually a Link Between Vaping and COVID-19?.

2) On chloroquine

Man dies after self-medicating with chloroquine phosphate to treat coronavirus

His wife, also in her 60s, is in critical condition after taking the additive, which is used in aquariums to kill some organisms, like algae, that may harm fish.

The man’s wife told NBC News she’d watched press briefings where Trump talked about the potential benefits of chloroquine — and she recalled the name from the treatment she used on her koi fish.

“I saw it sitting on the back shelf and thought, ‘Hey, isn’t that the stuff they’re talking about on TV?,'” she told the outlet on the condition of anonymity.

The couple mixed a small amount of their fish treatment with a liquid and drank it as a way to prevent the coronavirus, she said.

“We were afraid of getting sick.”

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Mar 24 2020 3:33 utc | 155

B seems to be declaring victory of a sort: "It may well be necessary to prevent mass events from happening for several more months. Some travel restrictions are also likely to be kept in place. People will be able to get back to work but large meetings should be avoided...." Odd how this aligns with Trump's plan to get Americans back on the job. Fauci's got to go for being a nattering nabob of negativity and the Donald will take it from there. We know that Trump's "gut" is a source of infallible intelligence, like Papal pronouncements, but I have credited b with the gift of reason. If China has beat the virus as the Party claims, where's the industrial pollution and energy consumption? Local gas in remote North Carolina mountains is $1.89. Demand is collapsing and the price may go lower yet. Show me don't blow me!

Posted by: jadan | Mar 24 2020 3:38 utc | 156

'correction to above 134... 1000 fatal cases per million. Antibiotics don't work on this pneumonia.

Posted by: ptb | Mar 24 2020 2:28 utc | 142'

antibiotics only useful against bacteria not viruses

Posted by: brian | Mar 24 2020 3:39 utc | 157

SharonM @129

Nailed it Sharon.

Suddenly the corporate mainstream media have become the epitome of truth, honesty and integrity.

Posted by: ted01 | Mar 24 2020 3:41 utc | 158

Posted by: occupatio | Mar 23 2020 18:33 utc | 12
"No, China didn’t cover up the Covid-19 outbreak: An analysis"

Thanks. I've saved the article for when it is memory-holed.

Crisis reveals character... the nature of people.

When shown to be incompetent, US leadership lies.

Russia says the US leadership is not "agreement-capable".

Less politely, I say they are dishonourable, shameless, ghouls who have lost their souls.

What does it profit a leader when the world's TV cameras shine on you, but you have lost your soul?

Posted by: kiwiklown | Mar 24 2020 3:51 utc | 159

This is going to sound strange but: RESPECT DISEASE. If you don't; it will come after you.

We take too much for granted.

I agree. Wear a mask.

Trump was delusional in his briefing today and everyone who was around him could not bring themselves to tell the emperor he has no clothes.

Why on top of everything must we be subjected to his inability to deal with reality?

Posted by: Circe | Mar 24 2020 3:57 utc | 160

Posted by: Cyril | Mar 23 2020 18:39 utc | 18

Good question, but the US is a bank pretending to be a democracy.

Nothing against the good American people, who are mostly honest, hardworking, decent folk, but I refer to the ZeroPointOnePercenters, those who would own the world.

Remember? one of their lot called Russia a petrol station pretending to be a nation.

What insolence!!!

Posted by: kiwiklown | Mar 24 2020 4:01 utc | 161

Is this OT? food for thought... 1968 BBC program
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tboSifl92Z8

Posted by: Nancy | Mar 24 2020 4:09 utc | 162

jackrabbit @33 -- "Coronavirus Drives the U.S. and China Deeper Into Global Power Struggle"

I would rephrase that to "US uses coronavirus to deepen global power struggle against China"

NYT -- "These officials warn that a fast-growing China, under Mr. Xi’s increasingly authoritarian rule, seeks military, economic and technological domination over the United States and its allies."

What weasel-speak! Repeating a big enough lie often enough, and you get distracted citizens to fall in line behind you for when you launch a sneak attack on China. This is nothing but a case of projection by parties who are themselves seeking to dominate the world, the better to eat other people's lunches.

Posted by: kiwiklown | Mar 24 2020 4:21 utc | 163

This may be an important new clue:

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ //
Lost Sense of Smell May Be Peculiar Clue to Coronavirus Infection
The New York Times - March 22, 2020

A mother who was infected with the coronavirus couldn’t smell her baby’s full diaper. Cooks who can usually name every spice in a restaurant dish can’t smell curry or garlic, and food tastes bland. Others say they can’t pick up the sweet scent of shampoo or the foul odor of kitty litter.

Anosmia, the loss of sense of smell, and ageusia, an accompanying diminished sense of taste, have emerged as peculiar telltale signs of Covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, and possible markers of infection.

On Friday, British ear, nose and throat doctors, citing reports from colleagues around the world, called on adults who lose their senses of smell to isolate themselves for seven days, even if they have no other symptoms, to slow the disease’s spread. The published data is limited, but doctors are concerned enough to raise warnings.
// ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Posted by: blues | Mar 24 2020 4:32 utc | 164

@Tim E. | Mar 24 2020 0:29 utc | 117

Again: if nCOV was really already in the US in November - where was the surge in hospitalizations?

What if the Covid-19 victims were living in military barracks? These people tend to be young, and we know that the young tend not to suffer much from an infection by the coronavirus. Even if the epidemic got completely out of control, it would have been limited to the barracks; there would not have been a surge of hospitalizations.

In fact, even a huge outbreak in the barracks might not have been enough to warn the higher ranks. So they could have ordered those 300 athletes to Wuhan's Military World Games completely unaware that many of them were carrying a highly infectious disease. The unhealthy athletes proceeded to infect the city. And the rest is history.

Posted by: Cyril | Mar 24 2020 4:44 utc | 165

yeah jackrabbit... when the usa wasn't busy trashing russia for this that and the other thing, they then moved on to trashing china... and of course everything will be used to trash either... so now we have the '''china''' virus according to the head bimbo in charge.. give it up... the neo con hot meal being served up regularly is going to happen regardless of coronavirus, or king turnips ''china'' virus... the msm in the usa is as predictable as you and pat lang, lol.. no offense, but i have to agree with kikilown....

Posted by: james | Mar 24 2020 4:45 utc | 166

Petri Krohn @ 156

The man’s wife told NBC News she’d watched press briefings where Trump talked about the potential benefits of chloroquine — and she recalled the name from the treatment she used on her koi fish.

Typical for NBC to pick up a story like this and blame Trump. Drinking aquarium algecide is Darwin's natural selection in action. NBC and the other media idiots will Trumpet this story for weeks.

10 of thousands and maybe millions will get this virus in California and will have little to nothing happen to them. I bet I could dig up many stories of flue killing multiple residents in nursing homes and prisons. Not to downplay the severity of this but getting back to work in a few weeks may not be a bad idea. Focus on protecting those most at risk. Let the population build up natural immunity.

Staying locked down for months is questionable at this time but it is working in the short term. I guess time will tell whom is right or wrong. No apologies will be allocated.

Posted by: dltravers | Mar 24 2020 4:49 utc | 167

The Trump Regime recently sent out a cable directing US government officials to focus on specifically criticizing China for the COVID-19 pandemic--and conveniently distract blame away from the Trump Regime's own belated and haphazard response:

"As the number of coronavirus cases continues to grow at a rapid pace in the U.S., the White House is launching a communications plan across multiple federal agencies that focuses on accusing Beijing of orchestrating a “cover-up” and creating a global pandemic, according to two U.S. officials and a government cable obtained by The Daily Beast.

The cable, sent to State Department officials Friday, lays out in detail the circumstances on the ground in China, including data on coronavirus cases and deaths, the local business environment and transportation restrictions. But it also issues guidelines for how U.S. officials should answer questions on, or speak about, the coronavirus and the White House’s response in relation to China.

[...]

The cable was disseminated to officials at a time when the administration is engrossed in a communications battle around how to disseminate the flow of crucial health information to the American public while at the same time deflecting criticism that the White House was unprepared for the pandemic and that President Trump is at odds with members of his coronavirus task force.

One of the results of those internal deliberations appears to be a renewed focus on underscoring China’s missteps. Two U.S. officials working on the administration’s coronavirus response said the White House is pushing federal agencies to stick closely to the national security council’s talking points, especially when senior officials take to the podium, to ensure continuity with President Trump.

“These talking points are all anyone is really talking about right now,” one official said. “Everything is about China. We’re being told to try and get this messaging out in any way possible, including press conferences and television appearances.”

White House Pushes U.S. Officials to Criticize China For Coronavirus ‘Cover-Up’
https://www.thedailybeast.com/white-house-pushes-us-officials-to-criticize-china-for-coronavirus-cover-up/

Posted by: ak74 | Mar 24 2020 4:50 utc | 168

Further thoughts on Covid-19 possibly starting in the US barracks, then brought to Wuhan's Military World Games...

Testing all the military should be a high priority, I think. The close quarters of a barracks would be perfect for spreading infections.

If the US military is highly infected, would that explain why some coronavirus discussions have been classified?

Posted by: Cyril | Mar 24 2020 5:07 utc | 169

@ 170 cyril... that's a good question ->"If the US military is highly infected, would that explain why some coronavirus discussions have been classified?"

Posted by: james | Mar 24 2020 5:10 utc | 170

@164

Authoritarianism is a lame term by the West to excuse their own chronic lack of responsibility at all levels. At least here in Singapore everyone knows true freedom revolves around our wallets and essential goods/services, and not from ideological chicken soup.

Posted by: JW | Mar 24 2020 5:17 utc | 171

The pollution link that b gives for Lombardy is a little misleading, as it shows only the level for March 23rd (in that window). Clicking around on that link @100 you can find the month by month variations. January and February readings are at the unhealthy levels. And looking over the whole year's figures, there is a sustained average and some months with even higher levels in the Milan area, and in nearby cities.

Here in North Texas, air pollution levels described as "moderate' on the charts we are working with, are truly awful if you have to breathe this crud year after year. The Dallas-Fort Worth area, and Fort Worth especially, is the site of thousands of fracking wells; and the big diesel machines running the rigs are said to add more exhaust gases than the total of cars and trucks.

I think the issue of the impact of air pollution has not been settled, as it relates to those who are susceptible to the onset of Covid-19 pneumonia. People of Lombardy have been living with "moderate" and elevated levels of air pollution throughout the year.

Posted by: Copeland | Mar 24 2020 5:21 utc | 172

Blues @ 26

I'm no doctor, but that is what I am taking"
You're no doctor, therefore that is what you are taking.
There, fixed it for you.

Posted by: Piero Colombo | Mar 24 2020 5:38 utc | 173

Petri Krohn | Mar 24 2020 3:33 utc | 156

chloroquine phosphate. Aquarium supplies sell it. exactly the same stuff doctors prescribe for malaria various illnesses and coronavirus.
The probably should have looked up dose rates, drug interactions and if their tickers were up to it.

Best to look up medical papers and medical description of vaping pneumonia. They are out there to be found.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 24 2020 5:44 utc | 174

dltravers

It kills parasites on fish same as it does with humans. Same stuff.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 24 2020 5:52 utc | 175

Spain's numbers are up there with China Iran Italy ect. Most of western Europe numbers are similar to these percentage wise. Germany the odd one out. US numbers are similar to Germany. Either something in the air or creative accounting.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 24 2020 5:57 utc | 176

@ 177 peter.. todays headline in rt - Covid-19 cases in Germany surge by 4,700+ in one day, with 28 new deaths..

Posted by: james | Mar 24 2020 6:15 utc | 177

Posted by: Piero Colombo | Mar 24 2020 5:38 utc | 174

=/ You're no doctor, therefore that is what you are taking.
There, fixed it for you. /=

Yeah but I am blues. I learned calculus when I was 11 years old. And so much more since then.

Posted by: blues | Mar 24 2020 6:47 utc | 178

Are there any genome analyses of the Wuhan vs Italian viruses?"
Posted by: james | Mar 23 2020 18:34 utc | 15

You aren't serious, james?

Why is the coronavirus mortality rate so much lower in Germany?
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-is-the-coronavirus-mortality-rate-so-much-lower-in-germany-

We are of course a couple of days behind the Italian curve. ... But we had cases brought in via China and cases via Italy or Tirol.

Great Links by:
Posted by: Pundita | Mar 23 2020 18:19 utc | 7
Posted by: occupatio | Mar 23 2020 18:33 utc | 12

Thanks appreciated:
Pundita's here is a case story of two female 29 year old Chinese health workers, one survives, one dies.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/13/world/asia/coronavirus-death-life.html

Posted by: Vig | Mar 24 2020 6:52 utc | 179

@ 180 vig... that is a quote from @8 pjb...

Posted by: james | Mar 24 2020 6:56 utc | 180

Jack Ma placed a message on Twitter regarding availability of a Handbook related to Coronavirus for medical workers and anyone else who is interested.

Jack Ma Handbook

Posted by: Tom_LX | Mar 24 2020 7:01 utc | 181

In the flu season 2015/2016, Italy reported 20,259 deaths attributable to influenza (just as now, these were almost all in the 65+ age group). (Source: Journal of Infectious Diseases)...and nobody proposed shutting down the world then. If it's now being suggested the virus has been around since November then the numbers don't add up even more (i.e. Italy's Covid-19 deaths so far are around the 6,000 mark which would make the virus far less deadly than the 2015/16 flu).

Is there not an argument to be made (as says John P.A. Ioannidis – professor of medicine and professor of epidemiology and population health at Stanford University) that we are destroying economies and lives (and possibly killing far more people than Covid-19) in an hysterical over-reaction based on flawed modelling and sparse and unreliable data?...

https://richardhennerley.com/2020/03/23/enough-of-the-coronavirus-doom-porn-already/


Posted by: Richard | Mar 24 2020 7:08 utc | 182

Posted by: Allen | Mar 23 2020 20:33 utc | 55
Posted by: Allen | Mar 24 2020 1:29 utc | 127

(Coronavirus is a fake emergency))

I've also pondered the question of whether the 'cure' is worse than the 'disease' in net/overall effect. However, it's important to remember that the reason the pandemic has been declared an emergency IN EVERY COUNTRY, whether Commie or Fake Democracy, is that it's making people sick enough to require hospital treatment. And these patients are ADDITIONAL patients which the health system hadn't planned for. When the flood of COVID-19 patients eases, then hospitals will return to normal levels of bed vacancy - nationwide.

For your preferred theory to be true, it would be necessary to prove that many, or most, of these extra patients are faking the seriousness of their illness AND the medics are too uneducated/inexperienced to tell the difference. You'd probably also have to prove that there are lots of people would rather be in hospital, pretending to be sick, than anywhere but hospital...

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Mar 24 2020 7:11 utc | 183

"Italy is known for its enormous morbidity in respiratory problems, more than three times any other European country. In the US about 40,000 people die in a regular flu season and so far 40-50 people have died of the coronavirus, most of them in a nursing home in Kirkland, Washington."

"The characteristics in every country are different. In Italy the median age of those dying of the coronavirus is 81 and the population is very old and frail and smokes more and among the dead are more men." - Professor Yoram Lass / https://en.globes.co.il/en/article-lockdown-lunacy-1001322696

Posted by: Arby | Mar 24 2020 7:16 utc | 184

Great idea - how about halloween masks for you and your government 'friends'?

Posted by: Tom74 | Mar 24 2020 7:21 utc | 185

@danny | Mar 23 2020 23:38 utc | 110

Thank you, thank you. You have got it right. Yes, the question of what is happening in Albania now is essential. Check it out people.

Posted by: Norwegian | Mar 24 2020 7:33 utc | 186

Why does it appear in some and not in other and why in certain locations? Yet, some hypotheses tend to get discarded as too fanciful.
Posted by: Jonathan W | Mar 23 2020 20:57 utc | 61

A small city close to Dutch border had one single case, apparently returning from skiing in Tirol, Austria or South Tirol/Alto Adige, Italy. He returned to his local town for carneval. Highly close setting, masses of people, drinking, joking, hugging and kissing. The town was put into quarantine. When doctors noticed the rise in cases, one had to isolate himself.

But that's how it got there. 1000 cases now.

...

Posted by: vig | Mar 24 2020 7:45 utc | 187

Posted by: danny | Mar 23 2020 23:38 utc | 110 --"To get to the reality and the truth in a world of deception we must just ask ourselves some questions.... the 'intelligent' citizens.... were too busy arguing about refrigerators and zinc...."

All excellent, excellent questions, Danny, but the intelligent people are distracted by The Magician's Hands. And so, they argue about minutae and miss the Big Picture.

They's a-kicking the table overs, peeps!!!

The Great Reset is being done. Even now, billionaire gangs fight over who gets what.

They scatter a few crumbs as "assistance" to Main Street deplorables, who are even more distracted than the intelligent deplorables.

When the billionaires are done divvying up the trillion dollar treasure, we will enter a brand new normal, one not to our design, but theirs.

And that's change you can believe in.


Posted by: kiwiklown | Mar 24 2020 7:53 utc | 188

Bergamo, which is a relatively small place, hosts the Il Caravaggio International Airport, the third busiest international airport in Italy. Doesn't surprise me that they have a problem.

Posted by: sad canuck | Mar 24 2020 8:01 utc | 189

The virus has affected peoples sense of smell someone above mentioned !
It has beyond doubt affected peoples sense of ‘for-sight.

Posted by: Mark2 | Mar 24 2020 8:05 utc | 190

Posted by: Allen | Mar 24 2020 1:29 utc | 127

Yes, I agree, thank you, we don't really know what we are talking about, we have not done the necessary surveilance, testing, and research to which is which in most cases, lots of guessing and lumping things together because the difference is not thought important.

I don't mean by that to imply that CV19 or any highly contagious respiratory disease is not a serious business.

I assume the Chinese and some others will be able to help out with that problem in the future, but in the meantime it's better not to get too committed to one interpretation of events, let's care for the sick and then do the research, make sure we don't get blindsided like this in the future.

Posted by: Bemildred | Mar 24 2020 8:10 utc | 191

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 24 2020 2:13 utc | 140 -- "I had thought we where following China closely on dealing with this but man was I wrong. Total fuckwits collecting seashells on the seashore as the tsunami approaches."

Here, in NZ, a Kiwi returning from China (where he works) filmed his arrival into Auckland Airport. He was asked if he is sick, to which he answered, "No", whereupon they gave him a brochure concerning self-isolation, and he was waved through. He asked, "What? Is that all? No thermometer readings?" They said, ".... But you are not sick, right? OK, you can go." All of 5 seconds, LOL. His youtube is online... short and sweet.

Posted by: kiwiklown | Mar 24 2020 8:24 utc | 192

FFS can we stop with the endless debate about who did what to whom in the early days of this virus' existence?
Not only are such debates entirely pointless because it is out among us now, it is pointless because whether they want it or not a full investigation including non-fiction backtrace is inevitable if we the people who look past the lies, play our cards right.

It has been said that like 911 the coronavirus pandemic will be a game-changer, that is the world will be different after the lockdowns, lies and beat ups than it was before.

There is however one major difference. Most humans were busy working and looking to keep their families going to do more than lap up what network TV & the fishwraps told them about 911. The far from reality attitudes too many still hold, date from that intensive tabloid indoctrination.

This time is pretty much opposite, people are stuck at home with too much time to think, but not enough they believe they can do.
If ever there was a time when it was possible to assist our fellow humans to see the world as it is rather than how the media tells them it is, that time is right now.
Many humans are already pissed about this; plans they had made for their 2020 are kyboshed, no one really trusts politicians anymore so everyone is asking themselves if this enforced income cut is really as essential as the pols claim it is(sure some nations have trickled a little down for the durationbut even there no one is gonna be better off, everyone normal is going to be copping an income cut).
That means most people are going to be somewhat resistant to the usual bland pol platitudes.
Have no fear the neolibs see the danger and will be pumping out the bulldust 24/7, the difference this time is Jo/Joe Blow finally has the time to consider other points of view, especially those which are expressed entertainingly rather than didactically, so WTF are people wasting time and energy arguing the toss about matters of interest to so few other humans?

I'm germinating a notion of what I am going to try to combat the tosh being pumped out by the elite it would be great if other humans considered the same as I'm certain most will come up with far better means to help others see than what I dream up.

Posted by: A User | Mar 24 2020 8:29 utc | 193

b, Vietnam Vet, Richard Steven Hack, and anyone else who cares to comment:

If what the CDC says is in the right ballpark (that between 200k and 1.7 million Americans will die, my question is: what will this do to the economy the United States? Will it be enough to implode it to the point where people in the civilized world will no longer fear secondary sanctions and the 40-plus year siege on Iran will be lifted? If so, that would be poetic justice. Nuff Sed.

Posted by: Nuff Sed | Mar 24 2020 8:53 utc | 194

kiwiklown 193

When I checked on the amount of testing done by various countries, Australia had a very high testing rate as percentage of the population. Back at the end of Jan when this was just making the news, I had to ring for an ambulance and first thing they asked was had she been to China recently.
A large testing campaign, from an early stage asking anyone needing to see a doc if they had been to China, but not even bothering to test at airports... Sounds like it is similar in NZ.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 24 2020 9:36 utc | 195

The only thing that would make any sense out of the large amount of testing but not at airports, is that they are trying to acheive a certain level of the virus in the community and then lock it down so hospitals can keep up. Do the herd immunity thing but at a pace suited to what hospitals can handle.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 24 2020 9:39 utc | 196

Hoarsewhisper, you say "When the flood of COVID-19 patients eases, then hospitals will return to normal levels of bed vacancy - nationwide."

I doubt it. We are going through one crisis after another. This time it is big because Europe and therefore the US (most extensive travellers) are being affected, but usually it is in poor countries and no one cares. The "prophets of doom" have been protesting in masses to say that "capitalism is killing us", which some ppl like to reduce to marginal protests about "climate change". It is rather about the sanitary catastrophes in the making (and not only in the making, as some have been ongoing) that people have been protesting.
We should rather be thinking about "what next?" and responsibility/accountability. However, this is made impossible by the emergency laws taken all over.
https://www.connexionfrance.com/French-news/Covid-19-France-declares-state-of-health-emergency-after-law-voted-through-by-MPs-and-Senators-Assemblee-Nationale

Before that, a group of MP's could have a number of ppl who would decide to cote against a law even when the group had said it would vote for it. Not anymore. Only the chief of the group is allowed to go to the parliament and vote. Do you imagine what it means?

Just to give one example, in France, the emergency servies have been striking and demonstrating for a year because indeed they did not have enough intensive care beds, even in pediatry (!) and often had to transfer people OUTSIDE PARIS...

Posted by: Mina | Mar 24 2020 9:45 utc | 197

What is also interesting is that it seems that an unfair distribution of wealth exacerbates the problem. IN other words, it socialized healthcare was provided, detection and testing would happen in a much more efficient and epidemiologically efficacious manner. So to the extent that this is true, it is a case of the chickens coming home to roost.

Posted by: Nuff Sed | Mar 24 2020 9:47 utc | 198

Another interesting feature of the shock strategy currently applied is that until planes and trains and stadiums were not plugged off, one can imagine that the virus was spreading on a much bigger scale than without these going on as usual.
So why should people who already see a max of 5 persons a week (close enough) be under house arrest? masks are evidently a solution.
Instead the French authorities are now trying to prepaper people for work by saying that people should not go out at all because when they do they touch the left button, the doors etc. But what of asking people for responsibility? They can just wear gloves and clean up whatever they touch with alcool, no? Why aren't such cheap things not distributed widely, household by household?
The French are doing worse because they have no community planning, unlike Belgium, the Netherlands, the UK and other northern countries. I haven't heard anyone on French media say that the municipalities or district social centres could play a role in better mapping the needs. It seems to be entirely on the shoulders of our super-centralized gov and the hospitals! With the results we see (and we are actually doing not so bad: 5 % of the positive seem to die, vs 10% in Spain and Italy -using the figures given here https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest)

Posted by: Mina | Mar 24 2020 9:54 utc | 199

Some fights just aren't fair.

https://youtu.be/5ixlPowYRpw

Posted by: Tim E. | Mar 24 2020 10:03 utc | 200

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