Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
February 19, 2020

Syria - Turkey's Bluff Is Called - Media Opposition Sources Run By British Intelligence

Russia has called Turkey's bluff of a wide ranging attack on Syrian government forces. The Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan will now have to find a way out of the Idleb trap he set himself in. His excellent Syria adventure is coming to an end.

Meanwhile we learn that the British military intelligence ran another large dis-information campaign that brought 'Syrian voices' into the 'western' press.

Erdogan continues with his wild rhetoric over Syria.

#ERDOGAN: "#Turkey cannot be confined within the 780,000 km2 border. #Misrata, #Aleppo, #Homs & #Hasaka are outside our actual borders, but they are within our emotional & physical limits, we will confront those who limit our history to only 90yrs."

The Turkish talks with Russia have not gone well. Russia had proposed the following points:

1- 16-km border strip in Idlib under Turkey control
2- Russia controls crossing between Idlib strip and Afrin
3- M4 and M5 opened under joint Russian-Turkish supervision
4- Retreat of observation points to border strip

Some ten of Turkey's observation points are currently surrounded by the Syrian army. If Turkey starts to escalate they will be in a dire situation.


bigger

Turkey rejected the Russian proposal:

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said on Feb. 19 that talks with Russia on the northwestern Syrian region of Idlib were far from meeting Turkey's demands and warned that a military operation there was a "matter of time".

"As with all [previous] operations, we say 'we could suddenly come one night.' In other words, an Idlib operation is a matter of time," Erdoğan said. He was referring to the previous three Turkish operations to northern Syria since 2016.

"We are entering the last days for the [Syrian] regime to stop its hostility in Idlib. We are making our final warnings," he added. “Turkey has made all preparations to carry out its own operation plans in Idlib."

Russia called a Turkish attack the worst case scenario:

The Kremlin spokesman added that "if it is an operation against Syria’s legitimate authorities and armed forces, it will definitely be the worst scenario."

Russia will continue contacts with Turkey in order to prevent the situation in Idlib from escalating further, according to Peskov.

"We are determined to continue to use our working contacts with our Turkish counterparts to prevent the situation in Idlib from escalating further," he said.

Two hours after it published the above the Russian agency TASS also published this:

Two Russian Tupolev Tu-22M3 strategic bombers have performed a scheduled flight over the neutral waters of the Black Sea, Russia’s Defense Ministry said in a statement on Wednesday.

"During the flight, the crews covered a distance of about 4,500 km and stayed in the air for more than five hours," the statement runs.

Fighter jets of Russia’s Southern Military District escorted the bombers during the flight.

The Tu-22M3 can fire long range cruise missiles. The Turkish military will understand that warning.

The Russians are also prodding Erdogan with reports about U.S. weapon deliveries to PKK-Kurds in east Syria:

“The US command in the region is intensively saturating the territory east of the Euphrates river with weapons and ammunition. Since the beginning of 2020, 13 military convoys have arrived from Iraq to Syria, which included over 80 armored vehicles and more than 300 trucks loaded with various types of weapons, ammunition and materiel”, Rear Adm. Oleg Zhuravlev said in a daily briefing.

Reports now speak of more than a million refugees in Idleb even as the pre-war population of Idleb governorate never exceeded 1.5 million. Many of those already fled during the early war either to government held areas or to Turkey and beyond. Where are the million reported now supposed to have come from?

The 'western' media is again practicing tear jerking about these refugees in Idleb. But its reports forget to mention that al-Qaeda rules Idleb and that it prevents the people from crossing the line into Syrian government held areas:

In yet another lengthy, expensive, lavishly illustrated story about Idlib, the NYT once again failed to make any mention of the politics of what is happening in that enclave of northwestern Syria– namely, the fact that well-armed jihadist/takfiri fighters from all around the world have controlled it for the past several years, while Syria’s government forces have been battling to regain control.

In that latest article, as in all of the lengthy, one-sided tearjerkers it has published about Idlib over the past year, the NYT has no actual journalists or photographers on the ground reporting the story. It is wholly reliant instead  on “stories” and footage it gathers from unverifiable sources inside the enclave– sources who notably never include any mention of the jihadi armed groups that control all aspects of life there.

Today we learn that many of these unverifiable sources have been on the British government payroll since at least 2012:

A number of leaked documents seen by Middle East Eye show how the propaganda initiative began in 2012 and gathered pace the following year, shortly after the UK parliament refused to authorise British military action in Syria.

Drawing upon British, American and Canadian funding, UK government contractors set up offices in Istanbul and Amman, where they hired members of the Syrian diaspora, who in turn recruited citizen journalists inside Syria.
...
During 2015, Free Syria, Syrian Identity and Undermine were funded in both British pounds and Canadian dollars, with the equivalent of around £410,000 ($540,000) being spent each month.

These 'sources' which were hired and instructed by the UK government are the ones quoted in 'western' papers. The whole scheme, like the British organized 'White Helmets', was run by military intelligence officers:

Individuals familiar with the project say that around nine companies were invited to bid for the contracts. They included a number of firms established by former British diplomats, intelligence officers and army officers.

Although the contracts were awarded by the UK’s foreign office, they were managed by the country’s Ministry of Defence, and sometimes by military intelligence officers.

These companies set up offices in Amman, Istanbul and, for a period, at Reyhanli in southeast Turkey. From here they would employ Syrians who would in turn recruit citizen journalists inside Syria, who were under the impression that they were working for the media offices of Syrian opposition groups.

The British intelligence also hired journalists to write 'Syrian rebel' propaganda stories. Britain also organized and directed the opposition's spokespersons:

Meanwhile, other leaked documents seen by MEE show that the British government had awarded contracts to communications companies, which selected and trained opposition spokespeople, ran press offices that operated 24 hours a day, and developed opposition social media accounts.

British staff running these offices were told that their Syrian employees were permitted to talk to British journalists – as spokespeople for the Syrian opposition – but only after receiving clearance from officials at the British consulate in Istanbul.

One of the responsibilities of the press offices set up covertly by the British government under the terms of these contracts was to “maintain an effective network of correspondents/stringers inside Syria to report on MAO [moderate armed opposition] activity”.

In this way, the British government was able to exert behind-the-scenes influence over conversations that the UK media was having with individuals who presented themselves as Syrian opposition representatives.

It wasn't just UK media who cited those persons. The whole 'civil opposition movement' was, like the 'White Helmets', a well organized and paid British government front. But when Turkey increased its role in Syria the British dis-information operation began to shut down:

British government enthusiasm for much of the work appears to have begun to wane as it became increasingly clear that the Assad government and its Russian and Iranian allies were winning the civil war, and funding for contracts began to dry up.

Early in 2019, the Free Syrian Police, a British-backed organisation, finally ceased operations following a militant takeover of Idlib province, much to the dismay of civilians and civil society activists.

The Turkish government is also said to have become less tolerant of the propaganda initiatives being co-ordinated from its territory.

One British contractor is understood to have been expelled after the Turkish authorities discovered she had entered the country on a tourist visa.

That Turkey's government became less tolerant to the British operation may also explain the death of the British military intelligence officer who ran the 'White Helmets' propaganda group from his apartment in Istanbul.

 

Posted by b on February 19, 2020 at 15:58 UTC | Permalink

Comments
next page »

Thanks for the continued coverage of the ME b.

Erdogan is bringing the end of empire's control over the ME to a climax. These steps need to be taken and hopefully there will be little bloodshed in the process.

After Turkey comes Occupied Palestine/Syria which will bring much more weeping and gnashing of teeth.

Onward!!!

Posted by: psychohistorian | Feb 19 2020 16:13 utc | 1

If his 'bluff' was called, wouldn't it have made sense for Erdogan to de-escalate? He could've just kept quiet or dragged out the talks.

His "wild rhetoric" will only underscore how weak he is ... unless he's actually serious.

Erdogan has always struck me as devious but careful. He's also a committed Islamist with a soft spot for Jihadi headchoppers. So I'm going to wait and see if this wild rhetoric makes for a spectacular face-plant or if he backs his wild rhetoric with wild actions.

In any case, I'm gonna need more popcorn.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Feb 19 2020 16:17 utc | 2

thanks b... i was reading this morning that erdogan had said yesterday "Turkey will not allow the Syrian government to take control of the province." and an ongoing threat-> "he was prepared to launch a military offensive in Idlib at any moment." now i read in your post " we will confront those who limit our history to only 90yrs."
the guy is completely bonkers and out of touch with reality.

so sad to see how the usa-uk and canada have worked so hard at funding an opposition that consists of the very same terrorist groups these same countries are opposed to.. what a depraved group these ex military intel people are if these unverified sources are correct.. i am guessing they are the ones that convinced the gov't of the need for this?

it seems like it is never over for syria and the syrian people.. all the evils of world power are concentrated in the same place with an agenda that is pure evil..

Posted by: james | Feb 19 2020 16:18 utc | 3

Where are the million reported now supposed to have come from?
Presumably from the surplus of refugees who fled to Idlib from other parts of Syria, when they were retaken, in those infamous bus convoys for example. There's a lot more than the 1.5 million native population there now. But I quite agree that a million is a vast exaggeration. There's people moving, but also others staying put.

Posted by: Laguerre | Feb 19 2020 16:23 utc | 4

Great article, thanks b

I sincerely hopes Erdogan sees sense and pulls back. No one wants to see a lot of Turkish soldiers going home in body bags. Maybe there will be another military coup against him if the military top-brass are interested in their own survival? They know they will lose to a hardened Syrian Army and Russia.

Posted by: James McC | Feb 19 2020 16:26 utc | 5

@ 4 laguerre... tiger lily on the previous syrian thread posted a few articles looking for feedback.. i read this in one of the 2 articles they posted - "Al Jazeera's Hashem Ahelbarra, reporting from Hatay, Turkey, noted Idlib in Syria's northwest is home to four million people and the situation was "unprecedented".

Posted by: james | Feb 19 2020 16:31 utc | 6

it seems like it is never over for syria and the syrian people.. all the evils of world power are concentrated in the same place with an agenda that is pure evil..

Posted by: james | Feb 19 2020 16:18 utc | 3

We're in the endgame, aren't we? There's not much more left to happen, unless someone makes a massive intervention, and we've agreed that's not going to be Erdogan, in spite of all his bluster.

Putin dictated his conditions, and Erdogan doesn't like them, but I suspect he doesn't have much choice. The key condition being the 16km strip along the border - the intention must be for Erdogan to be able to avoid taking in more refugees and keeping them on the Syrian side, including the fleeing jihadis. There'll be an amnesty for civilians, I guess, to allow them to go home.

Posted by: Laguerre | Feb 19 2020 16:34 utc | 7

Erdo's been talking to Trump. The initial Idlib Dawn operation was called off because Trump along with Erdo threatened to attack SAA.
If Erdo is crazy enough to say something like this -Turkey cannot be confined within the 780,000 km2 border. #Misrata, #Aleppo, #Homs & #Hasaka are outside our actual borders, but they are within our emotional & physical limits, we will confront those who limit our history to only 90yrs." - then he's just as likely to kick of a war with Syria, more so if he has Trump's backing.
I doubt Erdogan is bluffing. He's gambling on Russia standing aside when the shooting starts, as did the US. His rhetoric was the same prior to the attack on northeast Syria.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 19 2020 16:41 utc | 8

I think that he plans to start an operation and try to provoke an attack on Turkish soil by the Syrian Army. He can have Turkish artillery, from inside Turkey, firing all over the place till Syria fires back. Then he can invoke Article 5 against Syria, not Russia. Not for any Turkish loses inside Syria, but for the attack on Turkish soil (even if it is a counter attack).

He already consulted with Trump and I think he believes that he could muster enough NATO support to force Russia abandoning Syria, at least in Idlib and drag Putin back at the table in more favorative terms.

How it will really play out though, is another matter. The problem is that if he thinks he can pull this out, he will probably try it.

Posted by: Erlindur | Feb 19 2020 16:45 utc | 9

yeah.. i am not convinced he is bluffing either... i want to believe he is, but i am not convinced.. the guy is completely bonkers... a complete loon..

Posted by: james | Feb 19 2020 16:49 utc | 10

Another point, from what I have read on pro Erdogan twitter accounts, if he doesn't live up to his rhetoric on Idlib, he will lose domestically. Lot of hatred for Syria, Iran and Russia amongst his support base.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 19 2020 16:51 utc | 11

Wishful thinking is all we have now. As spectators at the Bread and Circus at the End of Empire, all we can do is pray to the programmers to send the Deus Ex Machina of divine intervention to this virtual reality game called Life. Between Wars and Rumors of Wars, Plagues of Locusts, Plagues of Plagues, and a Leadership of the Insane, the trend is not toward Peace and Prosperity before Collapse and Chaos.

It's reminding of those vaudeville variety show acts with the guy with ten spinning plates on sticks which he tries to keep all spinning and let none fall. For one plate to fall is a failure of the performance. So many plates, so little time.

Posted by: gottlieb | Feb 19 2020 16:54 utc | 12

The fundamentals are Russia cannot allow the Syrian government to fail in Idlib.

If Erdogan wants to test Putin and Shoigu's resolve, considering the blood and lives lost by the Russians, as well as the trade in gas and oil, the naval port on the Mediterranean the Russians require, then he will be swiftly punished.

Assad's army is primed for the fight against the terrorists and the Turks.

Air power will be decisive and the Turks are not going to control the skies. The Russians will control the skies.

Cruise missiles (Kalibrs) will cripple the Turks swiftly and stunningly.

The Kurds will use any Turk offensive for moves of their own against Turkey.

The potential for public humiliation of Erdogan and his military is a reality. The media is not going to paint Turkey a winner when it gets its men killed, its machines destroyed and it ass kicked.

Will NATO take the Article 5 bait and intervene? Russia has a missile or two ready for those clowns also. Brussels does not want to show its inability to handle the Russian military. They will stand down.

So, it comes down to Trump and CENTCOM. Do they want a piece of the action?

That means winning the skies. And there are those damn S-400s that will shred the F-22s sand F-35s to deal with.
A missile or swarm drone attack on Latakia and Tartus would mean total war with Russia.
Thus, the fundamentals are simple enough. Turkey will start a fight it will lose.

A weakened Erdogan suits the US and Trump.

Erdogan should take what the Russians offered.

Posted by: Red Ryder | Feb 19 2020 16:56 utc | 13

Another point, from what I have read on pro Erdogan twitter accounts, if he doesn't live up to his rhetoric on Idlib, he will lose domestically. Lot of hatred for Syria, Iran and Russia amongst his support base.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 19 2020 16:51 utc | 11

If I were Erdogan (and as megalomaniac as he is), I'd still be hesitating before attacking the Russians. Attacking the Russians is a big thing, when you don't have other support behind you. It's saying: my chances of survival in power are no longer great, better to go down in glory (a sort of political version of suicide by cop). Putin will have laid down the law to him. The logical position - one no doubt being heavily advised by the Turkish generals - is to seek a way of sliding out of war against Russia, much like Netanyahu slid out of attacking Iran in 2018 after all the threats.

Posted by: Laguerre | Feb 19 2020 17:05 utc | 14

It really is crazy. Does Erdogan want Russia to stop delivery of the S-400? To halt work on the Akkuyu Nuclear power plant (4 reactors, $25B). Stop gas flows through the Turkstream pipeline? How could he make all these deals with Russia and not realize that Russia will not allow him to carve off a piece of Syria?

Posted by: SteveK9 | Feb 19 2020 17:06 utc | 15

I doubt Erdogan wants AQ terrorists fleeing to Turkey, so in one sense moving troops to secure the border makes sense. What does one do with pets one no longer needs? Even Erdogan has to realize that no amount of Turkish troops will stop the ultimate defeat of the AQ project as a military power in Syria. They can certainly move to cell-based terrorism and cause a lot of problems, but they can't rule territory like they used to. If Erdogan were truly crafty, I could see him barring AQ from moving north and encouraging it to move eastward to fight the Kurds for territory. In that way, he could rid himself of his AQ pets while taking out some of his greatest enemy, the Kurds--and blaming the whole thing on the Kurds.

However, when it comes to fighting against Russian forces, I have to say that Erdogan is 99% bluffing. His economy was nearly destroyed just from shooting down one jet plane, and he's not dumb enough to send his country on an economic spiral that would surely result in more coup attempts against him.

Posted by: worldblee | Feb 19 2020 17:07 utc | 16

The U.S. is in a no-lose situation--"Let's you & him fight". America will continue to try to push the playground swing and pump it upwards and upwards. The Clinton-faction politicians and their generals have also been itching to have an excuse to start a "limited" hot war with Russia for four years now. Either scenario--Turkey backed behind the scenes, or up front with U.S. power--will be very bad news. Russia must make it clear that attempts to dissolve the United Nations charter by annexing land by force would destroy the rule of law, and will be met with appropriate actions.

Posted by: Imagine | Feb 19 2020 17:08 utc | 17

Good points, red ryder

Posted by: Hogs | Feb 19 2020 17:14 utc | 18

Tiresome! There will be no NATO intervention in Syria. Twice already they have pulled their impotent missile strikes...they wont risk that fiasco again. No boots on the ground. No planes in Syrian controlled airspace to be shot down. No options left except propaganda and aiding the terrorist proxies....Turkey is about to get spanked if they don't cool their jets.

Posted by: nemo | Feb 19 2020 17:23 utc | 19


Jackrabbit @ 2, I ordered to boxes of popcorn.. for each person at the bar.. In the man called Erdo stands the promise of world war III. in the person of Putin stands the man to stop Erdo.. it will be interesting. I just changed th e order to three boxes each.

so sad to see how the usa-uk and canada .. fund[ed].. an opposition that consists of the very same terrorist groups these same countries are opposed to.. James @ 3 .. you described propaganda and activities of mobsters. <. ..I believe the entire top levels of these interconnected governments are in the hands of private greedy dangerous mobsters and or their puppets. using the nation states as weapons and leverage to conduct their mobster affairs. <=it has taken many years for the governed in these various nation states to wade through the propaganda and to discover for themselves, the dilemma the governed are in: victims not of our persons in government we elected, but victims of puppets in government who serve the mob.

We the governed have been cut out from the affairs of government ( so called state secrecy) and from the election to office of persons able to do anything about it. So as one person said we the governed are but bystanders. .

Posted by: snake | Feb 19 2020 17:32 utc | 20

I never believed Erdogan was being serious, whatever number of troops he sent to Idlib. But by now I'd have expected his rhetorics to soften, not stiffen. So I'm not so sure anymore. Obviously the Turks are hoping for Putin to just step aside. I don't believe he will. Syria is an important project for one thing, but more importantly he'd lose a lot of his credibility and deterrent power even on other fronts (and there are many for Russia) if he just chickened out now.

But the whole argument may not really be about Idlib. Perhaps it is more about Manbij and Kobani. Erdogan says: I've let you attack the jihadis, now you let me attack the Kurds. His main goal has always been to de-Kurdify the border region. Manbij and Kobani are much more interesting for him than Idlib.

Posted by: D. Holzmann | Feb 19 2020 17:45 utc | 21

snake @19:

...it has taken many years for the governed in these various nation states to wade through the propaganda and to discover for themselves, the dilemma the governed are in: victims not of our persons in government we elected, but victims of puppets in government who serve the mob.

Great observation snake.

I've found that people that when I tell people that USA is EMPIRE-FIRST, they don't understand. But when I say that the government is run by a mafia that controls EMPIRE largess, then they understand. The value of international trade, arms sales, etc. is hundreds of billions of dollars.

All mafias are about $$$.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Feb 19 2020 17:52 utc | 22

Laguerre 14

It would be interesting to know the mindset of the generals that have survived the purges. Are simply Survivors or are they Islamists like Erdogan. Turk opposition is trying to reign in Erdogan a bit over his threats to Syria, so now he wants them investigated for ties to Gulen.
Generals objecting to Erdogan's plans may well cop the same treatment.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 19 2020 17:53 utc | 23

The straits would be closed for Russia, logistics would get messy, and nobody is talking about what would Iran do.
Dangerous situation.

Posted by: Paco | Feb 19 2020 17:57 utc | 24

When I read Erdogan's bluster about engaging the SAA, I laughed as the SAA will take apart the Turks with gusto as IMO they're hated more than the terrorists. There's also a lot of sentiment from the terrorists that Erdogan has forsaken them. Here's Canthama's morning report:

"Talk of the day in Syria is whether the turkish regime will attack the SAA anywhere in the frontline. It seems the talks with Russia ended in nothing for the terrorist regime of erdoggy and the regime’s army is pretending to be launching an offensive inside Syria…as a side note….

"1) RuAF is bombing the hell of Idlib for 2 days in a roll.

"2) SAAF is no longer carrying many airstrikes, just some isolated ones, reducing the chances for the turkish regime hit a SAAF plane of chopper.

"3) The SAA has gathered massive forces once more in mid-southern Idlib, an offensive is ready to clear . the M4 all the way to Lattakia, that would include Idlib city, Ariha and Jisr al Shughour.

"4) The 25th Special Forces Div is right now in the outskirts of Regiment 111th and Tuqad, ready for the go ahead to liberated the terrorist and turkish HQs in Daraat Izza, ad Dana and Sarmada, closing the Bab al Hawa border crossing for al Qaeda terrorists and turkish regime forces.

"No need to say that both 3 & 4 events will end the traditional war of aggression against Syria, leaving for a later day the cleaning of Afrin, northern and eastern Syria from illegal occupiers.

He then addresses a question about how it might unfold:

"No crystal ball here, anything can happen.

"Lets think about one think….Syria is defending itself on a war of aggression to kill Syrians for almost 10 years, the country is destroyed, economy is destroyed, people died by the thousands etc…in other world, Syrians learnt to fight fiercely all kind of modern warfare, inside cities, desert, mountains, a level of war expertise that no training gives you…

"Then comes a possible turkish regime formal 'invasion', because as I mentioned for years, the turkish regime invaded Syria long ago, with their al Qaeda/Muslin Brotherhood terrorists and their 'filed experts/liaisons/MIT' blah blah…and one should wonder, will Syrians bend to the turkish regime ?

"Nope, and here goes your answer…the war will then pass from Syria to Turkey….balilstic missiles will fly to Tyrkey and hit infra structure, bases, dams, power stations….think about the chaos it will happen to Turkey…tourism, military pride, millions of anti erdoggy will raise and try to oust the murderer of Syrians.

"Again, anything can happen and mad moron like erdoggy is at the show, Syrians lost a lot already, do the turkish people want to lose more than few soldiers ? Do they want to see Turkey in a civil war for 10 years?"

The discussion continues with some good links to talk show vids and other information, particularly by Igor Bundy. SAA has troops massed at Saraqib for next phase. Igor's point: Can Turkey afford to have the war it initiated brought to its turf? IMO, Erdogan's hysteria is tied to his domestic political situation. Here's the direct link to the above suggested vid.


Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 19 2020 17:58 utc | 25

Before everyone goes crazy about bad-mouthing Erdogan, remember a few things :

1. He has taken control of the HTS/FSA militias. Much better that he does, rather than US/KSA/UAE. Remember Khan Sheykoun, when a small advance by the SAA led to rapid diplomatic escalation to the UN and US retaliatory strikes ? Much more dangerous to my mind than a clownish Erdogan.
2. Turkey and Syria have a border. They will have to get along. It is in both their interests to come to some compromise agreement. The fact that Russia is even talking about a 16 km buffer zone shows that compromise is in the air. Erdogan wants a buffer zone all along the north of Syria and in exchange he will deliver the militants. It's a recipe for a deal. I am quite sure neither side will blow this one, although the M4 to Lattakia will be non-negotiable for Assad.
3. Erdogan has an audience. The Muslim Brotherhood is very strong in Turkey. He has to act strong to face them down. Russia and Syria would be well-advised not to humiliate him. With his MB contacts, he may well be best-placed to persuade the extremists to come to the table and withdraw. Everyone knows it is game over now. Assad has won.

Posted by: aniteleya | Feb 19 2020 18:00 utc | 26

Erdogan has been circling the bowl for a while now. It nice to see Putin ready to push the lever on this rat. Like all rats, they cannot smell their own smelly cheese flatulence! It's a long way to the sewage plant there Erdogan, good luck with the swim. Congrats, Dr. Assad and Syria.

Posted by: Taffyboy | Feb 19 2020 18:07 utc | 27

Erdogan is letting himself be set up for a military coup. He is already on poor terms with his purged military. Who can hardly look forward to a humiliation in Syria since Russia will weigh in against them.

But, who will back, inspire such a coup? Of course the U.S. But maybe the Russians for their own reasons.

Posted by: John Thurloe | Feb 19 2020 18:13 utc | 28

https://twitter.com/ornekali/status/1230176078779555847
"Turkey informs NATO that it’s going to launch an attack against Syrian army in #Idlib and asks #NATO to conduct “preventive” flights. Basically a #NFZ for both against Syrian and Russian aircrafts."

US France and UK called a special meeting of the UNSC over idlib a couple of weeks ago. A closed door session whatever that means.

https://larouchepub.com/pr/2020/200207_un_sec_council.html
"Feb. 7, 2020 (EIRNS)—At the behest of the United States, Britain and France, the UN Security Council held another “emergency” meeting on Syria yesterday, to discuss the situation in Idlib. It heard from both UN special envoy for Syria Geir Pedersen and UN Under-Secretary General for Humanitarian Affairs Mark Lowcock. Together, Pedersen and Lowcock painted a picture of a humanitarian disaster in Idlib province resulting from the Syrian Army offensive. But beyond their description of the humanitarian situation in Idlib, the UN Security Council appears to have become a platform for the U.S. and its partners to attack Russia’s involvement in Syria, which characteristic was observed by the Russian side itself.

U.S. Ambassador Kelly Craft delivered a bloodcurdling speech in which she accused the Syrian government, Russia, Iran and Lebanese Hezbollah of pursuing “deliberate, lethal violence against thousands of innocent children, women, and men,” the only purpose of which is “terrorize and subdue.” The U.S. message, therefore, is that “The situation in northwest Syria demands an immediate, comprehensive, and verifiable ceasefire.” The Astana process of Russia, Iran, and Turkey, therefore, “cannot be trusted to deliver such a ceasefire” because “it is Russian warplanes that have routinely terminated Russian-brokered ‘ceasefires,’ ” she charged."

Record of the 6th February meeting (pdf download) https://undocs.org/en/S/PV.8715
UN press release https://www.un.org/press/en/2020/sc14100.doc.htm

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 19 2020 18:21 utc | 29

It would be interesting to know the mindset of the generals that have survived the purges.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 19 2020 17:53 utc | 22

I'm sure the generals are indeed less willing to advise openly than in some other countries. That doesn't mean these things don't percolate through. Real autocrats (i.e. not Erdogan) do nevertheless have to be aware of their surroundings feelings, or they won't last very long. What goes wrong usually is that there's only one person forming policy, and so things easily get deformed. Going to war against Russia though is a big thing, not one that you go ahead with lightly.

Posted by: Laguerre | Feb 19 2020 18:25 utc | 30

So far, in syria, Erdogan has done what he threatened to do (Afrin, YPG). He will not backtrack for he is too much involved. Self delusion, maybe, but only actions in the end matters. When it come to Kalibr, SU 25 and so on, Turkey has plenty full anti ship missiles. The Su 34 & co will maybe do a nice show but 30 planes are no match for 150 f16. Russian military might has never been tested against a real opponent, I will not put a Kopec on it. My bet and 2 cents is draw with plenty loss on both side, SAA losing ground, and Turkey gaining plentifull body bags as much as they want.

Posted by: murgen23 | Feb 19 2020 18:37 utc | 31

James McC @ 5

The number of people bused to Idlib is is the region of 100,000 at most. Of 110.000 in East Aleppo, only 30,000 went west into Idlib. About 10,000 went there from East Ghouta while 3,300 arrived from Daraa, while about 8,000 Shiites were evacuated from Foua in Idlib to government controlled areas giving a net movement of about 35,000 into Idlib. Allow, say, for 20,000 from all other locations giving a total of about 55,000.

The other question is how many people remain in Idlib outside refugee camps. The answer is far less than the numbers claimed by "activists" in western MSM. How do I know? Because, according to the SOHR, the SAA dropped 672 barrels bombs on Idlib in January 2020 and only killed 4 civilians. If the towns and villages in Idlib were fully populated there would be far more dead. BTW, the SOHR failed to report on the number of non-civilian dead from those barrel bombs.

Posted by: Ghost Ship | Feb 19 2020 18:43 utc | 32

Anybody else notice the gut-wrenching stories of freezing baby refugees, shoeless in the snow? Anybody else see the pathetic, snow-covered camps? Anybody else look at the weather in Idleb and Aleppo? Highs between 12 and 17C/lows of 5 to 7C for the last two months.

Posted by: Hephie | Feb 19 2020 18:43 utc | 33

Posted by: murgen23 | Feb 19 2020 18:37 utc | 30

Please tell me you're a comedian, as that would be the only explanation for your comment

If "lowly" Iran gave the mighty US a bloody nose last month, a battle hardened SAA fighting for THEIR country will decimate Turkey should Erdo be so foolish. And that's before Russia enters the picture, which they will... as they are "pot committed"...

BTW of those f16's, how many are actually operational? 3?

Posted by: xLemming | Feb 19 2020 18:48 utc | 34

Peter AU 1 @26--

UNSC met this morning and Russia opposed a UN declaration for a ceasefire as was expected. Lavrov stated that Idlib must be liberated, no more dancing around as with the Minsk Accords. Like Kiev, Erdogan entered into commitments that he refused to honor, and he's being called out for his bad behavior. Russia's UNSC rep on short PressTV vid: "Syrian government should retake control of entire country."

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 19 2020 18:55 utc | 35

Hephie... What are you trying to say?

Posted by: arby | Feb 19 2020 18:57 utc | 36

"Russian military might has never been tested against a real opponent, I will not put a Kopec on it."

Seriously?? What planet are you from? And exactly where has the Turkish Sultan's military might been tested? Jupiter?

Posted by: nemo | Feb 19 2020 19:00 utc | 37

Only way Erdogan isn't bluffing would be if he actually had a secret agreement, SAA halts advances for a time and consolidate recent gains, and Erdogan can claim that his threats still were effective, and he doesn't want to risk his soldiers' lifes for the Eastern third of Idlib as long as he "protects" 2/3 of it.
If that's not the plan, then I actually think he's serious, and that he fully expects Russia not to move. That would be foolish, it's obvious Russia will intervene and bomb as much of Turkish military assets as it can and make Turkey economically suffer. I wonder how Erdogan would react when the realization will come.

Posted by: Clueless Joe | Feb 19 2020 19:08 utc | 38

karlof1

Partial coverage of the current meeting at the UN site now. https://www.un.org/press/en/2020/sc14114.doc.htm

I am mostly interested in what US, UK, France and Germany (nato) are say. Though Germany doesn't count for much. France statement is still missing from the UN report.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 19 2020 19:13 utc | 39

https://twitter.com/ornekali/status/1230176078779555847
"Turkey informs NATO that it’s going to launch an attack against Syrian army in #Idlib and asks #NATO to conduct “preventive” flights. Basically a #NFZ for both against Syrian and Russian aircrafts."

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 19 2020 18:21 utc | 28

Oh yeah. If the US didn't do it before, they're not going to start now. In the case of a Turkish attack, the Russians will certainly take care not to attack Turkish territory, in order to avoid triggering the NATO mutual defence clause.

Posted by: Laguerre | Feb 19 2020 19:14 utc | 40

@ 19 snake... i agree with you.. thanks for the popcorn, but i can't eat when i am feeling sick.. erdogan is turning my stomach..

@ 32 hephie.. it is either that, or reports of chemical bombs on the people of syria by that dictator assad who leads the brutal syrian regime.. that is all you are going to get from the western msm... do note the uk-usa-canada propaganda money running since 2012 that b discusses in this post... it seems to work on some...

Posted by: james | Feb 19 2020 19:15 utc | 41

@ 37 clueless joe.. it might be soap opera.. all the actors agree beforehand on the role they are going to play so as to make it look like turkey and russia are having a falling out.. it's possible.. i can't discount it.. this would be the tactic for keeping the jihadis and usa-uk and etc in tow along a particular line..

Posted by: james | Feb 19 2020 19:18 utc | 42

This sentence says so much:

"Nebenzya [Russia's UNSC rep]: When armed regiments were marching on Damascus no Western nation called for a #UNSC meeting."

Meanwhile, lots of activity over Idlib. RuAF sorties might go beyond 100 for today. Lots of heavy weaponry being readied at Latakia for the push Eastward. I expect operations to resume tonight for the SAA truly owns the night.

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 19 2020 19:21 utc | 43

Seems as though Turkey is acting at the behest of the empire/NATO/U$A, by refusing to act in the best interests of Syria, and the region.

Regime change,IMO, is STILL on the empire's agenda, and by holding Erdogon and Turkey as economic hostages, can get their way, and eventually effect regime change.

Hoping Russia stays the course in Syria, and restores their sovereignty.

Posted by: ben | Feb 19 2020 19:35 utc | 44

Laguerre
The original Idlib dawn offensive was called off when both Trump and Erdogan threatened to attack SAA. Syria had amassed its forces on the frontlines and the operation was ready to kick off at that stage. The current de-escalation agreement took its place.
I think much depends on what the US or the NATO crowd which is US UK and France promise Erdogan as to whether he kicks off a war against Syria.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 19 2020 19:38 utc | 45

murgen23 @ 30

What the fuck are you on man? That's some pretty good shit.

150 f16
Unfortunately F16s need airbases to fly from and the Iranians demonstrated what they could do to airbases last month. The Russians and prior to them the Soviets, have understood for about about fifty years that in war the mobile missile is god. Aircraft just get in the way. What the Iranians did is just a taste of what the Russians will do. And most of those F16s will be used to defend their airbases from cruise missiles aimed at the airbases. And with the INF gone, the Russians are free to deploy their ship-based cruise missiles on land.
Russian military might has never been tested against a real opponent
It was tested in Georgia and found wanting, so Putin instituted a massive reform program for the Russian military, so no, they haven't done total war for quite a few years, but the last time they did, they ground the Wehrmacht and Waffen SS into the dirt. In fact in World War 2 the Japanese were so scared of the Soviet Union that they went to war with the United States and as soon as the Soviet Union entered the war, they surrendered. The Japanese high command was more scared of the Red Army that they were of atomic bombs.

Posted by: Ghost Ship | Feb 19 2020 19:39 utc | 46

There's certainly the possibility that some pantomime's being played-out as Turkey ships Idlib terrorists to Libya to fight for the NATO side, withdraws some of its forces from Syria's Northeast and orders Afrin-based rats to relocate and defend Idlib City. Clearly, Russia means business as it conducts a great number of airstrikes on Idilb and North Aleppo areas. Hard to know if feints or beginning of main thrust: "The Syrian Army started ground operations in Jabal Zawiya and Deyr Sumbul in the south of Idlib."

It seems like the jawing has ceased and military moves resumed. Terrain may favor terrorists but their numbers are much fewer. Weather favors SAA as does the night. SAA also has forward artillery and air spotters, and SAA gunners have proven their accuracy. Hard to have any type of good morale under these conditions.

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 19 2020 19:49 utc | 47

Education video for Turkey:

ANNA News Agency demonstration of what would happen to Turkish forces in Syria

Posted by: Krollchem | Feb 19 2020 19:51 utc | 48

Looks like UK alone spent two billion trying to destroy Syria.

https://www.un.org/press/en/2020/sc14114.doc.htm
"Ms. PIERCE (United Kingdom) took the floor a second time, affirming that her delegation does indeed listen carefully to statements issued by the Russian Federation. Reiterating her question as to why the attacks were conducted, she went on to emphasize that the perpetrators of crimes will be held personally responsible one day. She went on to state that the United Kingdom has given $2 billion to Syria, adding that since reconstruction costs are mounting amid the ongoing attacks, it will be for Russian and possibly Chinese taxpayers to foot the ever-growing costs."

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 19 2020 20:01 utc | 49

Laguerre #7

There is a permanent amnesty for civilians and a permanent reconciliation offer for combatants.

It has been this way for years. The Syrian government is working hard to deconflict the nation and is ably assisted by Russia at the deconfliction points. Safe passage for civilians and disarmed fighters are always set up when the Syrian Army is driving out the jihadis.

I smell whitewash in your posts, your lack of recognition of the complexity of Syria's approach is telling.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Feb 19 2020 20:01 utc | 50

Erdogan has spent so much time the last few years playing every side of every issue, and trying to play everyone else off against each other, I'm not so sure even he knows what he's going to do. My concern is that the US now seems to be actively trying to use economic threats and promises of true love to get Turkey to do a full blown invasion, and it might not take much of a push to get him to do it.

Why would the Western powers do that? Certainly not any Article V NATO stuff--actually probably the opposite. Sure, they would lead him to believe that if he goes big against Syria they'll be there to back him, but they would love nothing better than to leave him dangling. Let him bleed Syria (and hopefully Russia) by invading, but it's a foregone conclusion he'll lose without major backing, which the West isn't prepared to do (overtly). So he comes home with his tail between his legs, even the friendly Turk military now invigorated in its dislike for Erdogan. If he survives politically, he will have been properly spanked for his flirting with Russia and the S-400 deal, Russia will probably kill that deal (that the US couldn't get killed on its own), and he'll be lectured on how it should be obvious how weak he is without coming back fully into the NATO fold. But equally likely the embarrassment will set the stage for another coup attempt, where the CIA hopes to work with Turkish military/intelligence to get a much more malleable puppet.

Posted by: J Swift | Feb 19 2020 20:04 utc | 51

The original Idlib dawn offensive was called off when both Trump and Erdogan threatened to attack SAA.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 19 2020 19:38 utc | 44

Classic Russian decision. Classic in the sense that they've done it all before in the Syrian war. They can come back to the movement later, when the politics works better. Don't provoke a big war is the Russian word.

Posted by: Laguerre | Feb 19 2020 20:05 utc | 52

So I take it that Erdogan “cannot be confined within the 780,000 km2 border” quote is real?

If so, wow.

I’ve assumed that for public consumption, Erdogan mostly relied on some “pre-emptive self-defense” story for his Idlib meddling (if not for the whole Syria adventure). But I guess he’s actually “saying the quiet part out loud”, Trump style: these former Ottoman territories are still rightfully ours.

At least there’s some consolation in the way the US/UK and Turkey can’t stop jabbing each other (the S-400, the Kurds) long enough to fully co-ordinate their evil Syria plans.

Posted by: David G | Feb 19 2020 20:11 utc | 53

Laguerre 51

Similar to my thought. Russia went into Syria to wind down a war, not start a new one. Russia like Syria, now seems intent on wiping out the UN designated terrorist organisations in idlib. At the moment, I don't see Russia calling a ceasefire this time round.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 19 2020 20:22 utc | 54

...
"It weren't just UK media who cited those persons. The whole 'civil opposition movement' was, like the 'White Helmets', a well organized and paid British government front. But when Turkey increased its role in Syria the British dis-information operation began to shut down:

British government enthusiasm for much of the work appears to have begun to wane as it became increasingly clear that the Assad government and its Russian and Iranian allies were winning the civil war, and funding for contracts began to dry up.
..."

It's worse than that. The Christian Colonial Cranks have moved their Anti-Syria campaign to the UN.
This morning F24 reported that the "UN Envoy to Syria" (whatever that means) underlined the 900,000 displaced Syrian Civilians trope and stated that there is "no military solution to the Syria crisis" conveniently 'forgetting' that Turkey is invading Syria and the Turkish UN rep has given Assad "until the end of the month to stop its Idlib offensive."

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Feb 19 2020 20:25 utc | 55

Suriyak has excellent ongoing thread detailing aspects of Operation Redemption 3 that confirm my writing above:

"Despite the lack of ground advance important units, previously deployed in Aleppo city & others from Damascus, Tartous & Homs began moving to the southern countryside of #Idlib in order to prepare the 2nd part of #Op_Redemption3 while others reinforce Ghab plains & Afrin axis."

I'll be curious to see how close his hypothetical frontline at end of this phase matches reality.

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 19 2020 20:30 utc | 56

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 19 2020 20:22 utc | 53

Erdogan, like Trump, has rages. Better to wait till the rage is over, before acting. Putin is quite bright in that, although an alpha male himself.

Posted by: Laguerre | Feb 19 2020 20:35 utc | 57

In other, not unrelated news, F24 was reporting this morning that the UN-backed Govt in Libya has withdrawn from the Geneva peace talks after Haftar launched an attack on Tripoli. Several 'Western' news outlets have been reporting this week that the EU is "divided" over which side to support in (NATO's) Libya SNAFU.
I still believe that NATO can't afford to let Haftar (or anyone else) re-unify Libya and risk exposing NATO's malfeasance in that once-prosperous country. But they're going to have to confront 'Russia' and probably 'China' to prevent re-unification.

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Feb 19 2020 20:45 utc | 58

A number of leaked documents seen by Middle East Eye show how the propaganda initiative began in 2012 and gathered pace the following year, shortly after the UK parliament refused to authorise British military action in Syria.
I’ve always believed the 2013 UK parliament vote against direct military action against Syria was key in stymieing the US push for open war to support the jihadis at that time, and thus was a signal moment in the decline of unbridled US imperial power (just as I’m convinced UK disobedience in 2002-2003 would have been a serious obstacle to the US plan to destroy Iraq).

I still believe so, but it is discouraging to see how that vote served mainly as a starter’s pistol for the UK secret state to get serious about intervening clandestinely, rather than as a democratic mandate to stay out of Syria.

Posted by: David G | Feb 19 2020 20:47 utc | 59

The fact that Erdogan stands to gain tens of Billion from the Russian Turk Stream project alone. Leads me to believe he's being controlled by the US and Nato. Otherwise he wouldn't be committing Economic suicide.

Posted by: Ron | Feb 19 2020 21:01 utc | 60

So, the major parts of Idlib have been retaken. Aleppo is cleared of daily bombardments. The M5 is open, the main road from Damascus to Aleppo. All that are major achievements. What remains other the complete extermination of the rebels? The M4, from Latakia to Aleppo, is not vital. They've got the minimum they need, and if the Turks/US block further progress, who cares?

Posted by: Laguerre | Feb 19 2020 21:03 utc | 61

Out of subject. But very intriguing:

from an article on PressTV:

https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2020/02/19/619035/Iran-coronavirus-cases-confirmation-Qom-health

Two confirmed dead by the coronavirus in Qom, Iran. Both over 65 and one with injuries from chemicals in
the Iran/Irak war.

However, they never left their province and never went out of Iran in their lifetimes.

Isn't Qom one of these historic cities in Iran?

Didn't Trump announce he was going to bomb historic sites in Iran?

Should we draw a conclusion on this inexplicable event?

Posted by: CarlD | Feb 19 2020 20:42 utc |

Posted by: CarlD | Feb 19 2020 21:15 utc | 62

In politics a weak hand is played loudly.
How is Erdogan holding up in domestic politics?
Surely his footing at home is getting weaker; there must be knives being sharpened?

Posted by: hosscara | Feb 19 2020 21:16 utc | 63

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Feb 19 2020 20:45 utc | 57

Does the Haftar bombardment of Tripoli actually put the city in danger of being taken? I would say it's not evident.

Posted by: Laguerre | Feb 19 2020 21:21 utc | 64

nemo #18

There will be no NATO intervention in Syria. Twice already they have pulled their impotent missile strikes...they wont risk that fiasco again. No boots on the ground. No planes in Syrian controlled airspace to be shot down. No options left except propaganda and aiding the terrorist proxies....Turkey is about to get spanked if they don't cool their jets.


Perhaps not NATO but Israel via the Golan and a direct assault on Damascus.
Russia is the target now. No matter how cosy it appears between Is and Ru the oligarchy wants to plunder all.
Could be they dream of a rerun of USSR in Afghanistan yet.
Once Israel commences something (and Canthama has an ominous quote from Israeli Defence Minister prattling on about an offensive approach) then the captive nations of FUKUSEU will follow. As if Israel foreign policy was anything other than offensive in every sense of the word.
It is a vulnerable moment and all contingent of a NATO alliance with a megalomaniac useful idiot Erdoghan.
Time will tell.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Feb 19 2020 21:33 utc | 65

Here in the Land of Oz, jihadi soapie "For Sama" has been running at a number of cinemas with heavy media promotion. This film had been nominated for an Oscar at the recent self-congratulatory Hollywood Academy Awards ritual in the Best Documentary (sic) category.

I read something about the film and found that most its footage had been filmed by so-called "citizen journalist" Waad al-Kateab, after whose bub (for 15 minutes of fame at least) the film was named, lest we confuse the exploited child with that other Syrian kid Bana al Abed, and the co-director of the film was British director / producer / cinematographer Edward Watts who I believe has never set foot in Syria. I figured there had to be a missing link somewhere that would explain how Watts and Waad al-Kateab came to be in contact and work out a way to make a film about her "experiences".

After reading this latest post by B at MoA, I now have a better idea of who that missing link / third party may be. Who but the British government and British military intelligence agencies themselves?

And perhaps there is even more to Watts himself than just being a director / producer / cinematographer / documentary film-maker. Making such films is an expensive endeavour. What film-maker wouldn't jump at the chance to work with the British government and its agencies and take their money to speak to so-called "Syrian opposition representatives" to get access to supposed "refugees" and their "stories"?

Posted by: Jen | Feb 19 2020 21:38 utc | 66

US contribution to destroying Syria, just via pentagon and CIA 3.3 billion.
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/202002191078354369-photo-pentagon-ig-report-finds-716-million-in-equipment-destined-for-syrian-rebels-left-to-rust/

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 19 2020 21:38 utc | 67

Laguerre #60

They've got the minimum they need, and if the Turks/US block further progress, who cares?

A sovereign people care Laguerre, a sovereign people sick of warmongering neighbours care.
I care that there should be peace in Syria and the entire lands of Earth.
I care and so do many others that people should direct their energies toward our material, social and philosophical fulfilment.
I care as do many others that war is indiscriminate and destroys our environment, wastes our energies in destruction.

I care to protect the extraordinary nature of life on this small plane
And I am insulted by indifference to crimes against humanity and this beautiful world.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Feb 19 2020 21:44 utc | 68

@64 …"Perhaps not NATO but Israel via the Golan and a direct assault on Damascus."

Pardon? An IDF ground offensive towards Damascus?

That would end in a fiasco for the Israelis, and the IDF high command knows it. It would definitely demolish the pretence that the modern IDF ground force is anything other than an ill-disciplined, unmotivated, poorly-trained gang of thugs with guns good for brutalizing women and old men at checkpoints and not much else.

Posted by: Yeah, Right | Feb 19 2020 21:44 utc | 69

karlof1 #46

The ships to Tripoli are looking a little vulnerable right now. One just narrowly missed a shell that incinerated the cargo just unloaded on the dock.

The next one might not be so lucky.

Egypt has no time for the Muslim Brotherhood nor any shenanigans from the west to encircle it with jihadis, Israelis or any other belligerents. If necessary Egypt will muscle in with Haftar and they will roll over the jihadi front and grind them.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Feb 19 2020 21:55 utc | 70

Macron..
"Paris will clamp down on imams from Muslim countries that arrive in France to push worshipers into violating the law, the country's President Emmanuel Macron said, warning Turkey it can't "feed separatism" on French soil.
Macron promised to "gradually" end the program allowing Muslim countries to send imams and teachers to France in order to teach languages and culture unsupervised by the state. Speaking at the town of Mulhouse near the German border, he said that the influence of foreign imams leads some to "separate themselves from the Republic and therefore not respect its laws.""

Exactly what he along with the usual suspects are trying to do to Syria.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 19 2020 21:55 utc | 71

Yeah, Right #68

Yes it would end in a fiasco. Since when is that excluded from the mongrel war mind?

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Feb 19 2020 21:56 utc | 72

@67 Amen..

Posted by: Lozion | Feb 19 2020 22:01 utc | 73

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Feb 19 2020 21:44 utc | 67

I meant that can be left until later.

Posted by: Laguerre | Feb 19 2020 22:03 utc | 74

"Turkey cannot be confined within the 780,000 km2 border. #Misrata, #Aleppo, #Homs & #Hasaka are outside our actual borders, but they are within our emotional & physical limits, we will confront those who limit our history to only 90yrs."
Emotional borders? Who knew that Erdogan's war in Syria was all about feels!

Posted by: Seamus Padraig | Feb 19 2020 22:04 utc | 75

Quite informative to me of the Russian General attitude is the fact that neither Shoigu, Gerasimov or Lavrov or Putin met with the Turkish delegation; ergo last time the agreements were made with the top brass, Turkey hasn't fulfilled it's obligations, so those guys have nothing to say to them or Erdogan,and sent only the deputies to the meeting which means the subordinates in the Russian General Staff also are of the same view - Do what you said you will, we have nothing more to say to you, if you won't, it will happen by other means in spite of you.

Posted by: jrt | Feb 19 2020 22:16 utc | 76

Note, that I am not an Erdogan fanboy but a warm supporter of YPG. But feel here a self delusional mood in overpricing the Russian tech and looking down on the Turks because the trucs are not brilliants. True, their performance was not what you expect from a NATO member. But turcs are stubborns, they swallows their loses, and there lies their real strength since hundreds years. Erdogan is not subtle, Assad is desperate to win this war while Putin is overplaying is cards.

Let's remind you that we saw the sole russian aircraft appear near syria coast, quickly lose 4 of its 25 planes in tech issues to return and was scrapped because russian were unable to maintain its docking. Did I say Junk stuff?. Why do you think the rest is better maintained? It is not.

Stick to my point. Russian gear is not tested and the few we saw is not appealing. Israel is bombing the shit out of IGRC under the nose of the Russians. They dare do nothing. The mighty AA systems 'Aka Pantsir', were targeted multiple time and found unable to defend themselves from low speed incoming israelis drones. How can they defend the costly SA 400/300? When it come to performance, after several years, hundreds of site bombed each with its lot of coffins, IRGC & co managed to down 1 plane. Nice shot, still 700 to go. You are not in a hurry? My diagnostic : russian electronic on battle ground is near junk stuff.
Next you are bragging the Russian Kalibr, forgetting that turkey has plenty of anti ship missiles and the targets are near. Given the state of non-art of russian AA capability to protect its bases, I suspect that Putin will not move to protect SAA or risk lose his precious toy.

Posted by: murgen23 | Feb 19 2020 22:18 utc | 77

The participation of the UK on the propaganda front is a very interesting subject.

Since the very beginning of the second Cold War (1945), the UK has been investing heavily on propaganda and spionage. One bigwig at the time - don't remember if it was Bevan or Eden (don't care either way) - once stated that this was because, until the 1950s, the UK still considered the Americans a bunch of uncultured brutes. He thought the UK could serve as some kind of civilizational guide to the USA, so it could finish inheriting the torch of Western Civilization.

The metaphor was revealing. He said the UK could "be to the USA what Greece was to the Romans".

Posted by: vk | Feb 19 2020 22:23 utc | 78

A big game changer from when Russia and Syria canceled the Idlib Dawn offensive a couple of years back is the Kinzhal missile. And perhaps a few other goodies that have been deployed since that time.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 19 2020 22:27 utc | 79

Near where the incident was last week, Russian 3 vehicle patrol held up by 2 slow moving US MRAP patrol tries to overtake. Lead Russian vehicle gets past one MRAP but the other is having non of it. The Russian feints to the left, MRAP blocks, Russian goes right MRAP forces Russian off the road into the field but can't stop it passing. Note the civilian that nearly got mowed down in the final move.

Imagine what would have happened if that civilian had been hit or if the Russian vehicle had overturned. Wars start like this.

Video at link.

twitter.com/ibrashino/status/1230218147938082818

Posted by: JohninMK | Feb 19 2020 22:37 utc | 80

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 19 2020 21:55 utc | 70

Nothing special in those remarks. After the oil-price explosion of the 1970s, the Saudis paid for mosques everywhere, equipped with Wahhabi Imams, all ready to radicalise. Now we have the kick-back from states that formerly happily accepted Saudi finance for mosque building, but now have finally understood the consequences of what they formerly accepted.

In fact, as I once had a student who studied modern-day mosques in France, I can say that most modern-day mosques are not Saudi-built, and Macron is exaggerating.

Posted by: Laguerre | Feb 19 2020 22:39 utc | 81

Moon is the most obvious pro Russian troll on the inter web. Turkey is, as I type, shelling the living crap of your esteemed Russian friends. Generals dropping like flies for 'ol Vlad. Erdogan wan't bluffing that's for sure. Additionally, you folks better brush up on your Turkish military knowledge and Nato connection. Those boys are going to roll syria and their Russian masters if they feel like it. Syria and the entire world knows that Russia only wants syria for pipelines. If Turkey wants to landlock syria they will. And if they start to get desperate you better believe Israel will roll a few tanks through Lebanon and help out. Sheesh you all talk like Turkey is some tiny country like Monaco. Turkey has 500k+ soldiers and they're relatively modern with connections to Nato that they're already flexing. Russia. Lol.

Posted by: Aj | Feb 19 2020 22:48 utc | 82

Laguerre
Macron does not mention Saudi.
What I was noting was the hypocracy in Macrons statement. " he said that the influence of foreign imams leads some to "separate themselves from the Republic and therefore not respect its laws." Isn't that what they are trying to do to Syria, cheering and financing those very prople macron does not want in France.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 19 2020 22:50 utc | 83

Posted by: Aj | Feb 19 2020 22:48 utc | 81

Ah yes. "Israel will roll a few tanks". The guys who are afraid to roll their tanks out of their bunkers, for fear of a Hizbullah missile bombardment.

Posted by: Laguerre | Feb 19 2020 22:56 utc | 84

so a wee question in all that fighting and tit for tat bullshit that the ruling classes amuse themselves with in Syria.


Where are the refugees are supposed to go to? Also, does it matter that it is winter?

Will there be an essay on being a Syrian refugee? Or is that just tough luck, sucks to be you and not be Turkish, Russian, us american and you can just go rot in a camp or in Europe (some hate fodder for theersatz nazis there)?

Seriously, in all that war porn do we still give a shit what happens to people like us, or are we just to get off on the righteousness of turkey, Russia, us america?

Posted by: Sabine | Feb 19 2020 22:58 utc | 85

@83. Big difference between being scared and waiting for the right time. If you think Turkey taking the lead to smack down syria isn't a good time to get rolling, then I'm sure I can't help with that. Go back to the kitchen and bake some cakes for the real soldiers.

Posted by: Aj | Feb 19 2020 23:00 utc | 86

@24 "The SAA has gathered massive forces once more in mid-southern Idlib, an offensive is ready to clear . the M4 ..."

I can see that M4 and the other cities mentioned are important and need eventual cleaning. I'm curious though on the order of operations. After the SAA success in Western Allepo they're now very close to the main road from Turkey to Idlib city. I would think that it would be critically important for the SAA to close this single point of resupply before before reaching for other goals. After all, the road is only 2cm from the front, on my map. How hard can that be? :-)

Posted by: namelessone | Feb 19 2020 23:00 utc | 87

Recep is President--------in other words, RIP!

Posted by: john johnson | Feb 19 2020 23:01 utc | 88

@24 "The 25th Special Forces Div is right now in the outskirts of Regiment 111th and Tuqad, ready for the go ahead to liberated the terrorist and turkish HQs in Daraat Izza, ad Dana and Sarmada, closing the Bab al Hawa border crossing..."

Doh! This makes more sense. I suppose I should have finished the post before commenting :-)

Posted by: namelessone | Feb 19 2020 23:02 utc | 89

turkey is mentioned in greek and islamic prophecy and it is overun by russia, apparently preceded by a large gathering of warships in the mediteranian.
erdogan is just the sort of guy to make it happen. wont be the first time the populace gets screwed by an idiot leader.

Posted by: john johnson | Feb 19 2020 23:08 utc | 90

Sabine
Perhaps they should have thought they may lose before backing the jihadis, Turkey US et al to destroy their country. They've had eight years to go over to the government side. They want Turkey to take over Idlib, let Turkey take care of them.
Or should UN designated terrorists and Erdogan be allowed to control Idlib just so bana remains safe..

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 19 2020 23:08 utc | 91

Laguerre #73


I meant that can be left until later.

I would think that in the current circumstances with a route in play and the western jihadi front fractured and in disarray, the SAA would drive them to the border and over it. Then Turkey can have its buffer zone. IN TURKEY where it all began.

There certainly should be a drive from Latakia and the south west if resources are available. That would wrap up the rout in week or two. Major cities can be avoided as direct battle zones and isolated the deconfliction process can unfold again. As it did in Daraa.

The jihadis can be returned to their country of origin along with their families. Their captive sex slaves can be released if the jihadis haven't already murdered them.

There is no need for a ceasefire, another round of rearmament for the jihadis. Turkey and the west have just supplied them with MANPAD weapons. Insane bastards. So that was certainly the end signal to SAA and Ru forces - drive them to the sea asap.

Consider: If MANPADS are in the hands of jihadis where will they be misdirected first? Perhaps a few European airports? A Ruuian Federation airport? perhaps a predictable landing flight path in Asia? Australia, Indonesia? These devices are small and smuggleable.

I am with the the forces that actively seek to permanently rid humanity of these maniacal useful idiots.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Feb 19 2020 23:09 utc | 92

Posted by: Aj | Feb 19 2020 23:00 utc | 85

Real soldiers don't make snotty remarks. The Turks have given no evidence so far of any military puissance, Syria & Russia will wipe the floor with them, and it won't take long either.

Posted by: Bemildred | Feb 19 2020 23:19 utc | 93

Laguerre @ 60:

I agree with Uncle Tungsten @ 67.

The more practical aspect is that if Syria and Russia were to leave the rest of Idlib alone, Turkey could take advantage of that action to mount another assault against Aleppo. If Turkish-held Idlib is mostly populated by extremist jihadis and their families, many of them from western China, and not simply "just rebels", they will come to be a continuous threat to NW Syria and have to be dealt with sooner or later - and much better sooner than later.

The security of Aleppo needs all of Idlib to be liberated so that direct communications can be re-established with Latakia on the coast.

Posted by: Jen | Feb 19 2020 23:22 utc | 94

Turks aren't real soldiers. Neither are Americans for that matter. Real soldiers don't hide in bunkers while their base is under attack. Maybe if the us had some pantsir units they wouldn't have over 1000 boys with brain pudding from that Iranian missile attack their air defense technology so spectacularly failed to defend them from.

Posted by: Nemo | Feb 19 2020 23:26 utc | 95

Seamus Padraig @ 74:

One has to feel for Erdogan's sadness that Turkey's military range no longer extends to Poland and Ukraine where all those beautiful women like Roxelana (died 1558) could be captured by Crimean Tatar slave-raiders (as Crimea's tribute to its overlords in Istanbul) for the harem in Topkapı Palace.

Posted by: Jen | Feb 19 2020 23:29 utc | 96

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 19 2020 23:08 utc | 90

whom are 'they'?
the people that call themselves Syrians and happen to live in a world where the US bullshitters, the Russian bullshitters and the Turkish bullshiters are wanking all over the country and pretend they are there for anything else but their own gain?

Fact is, that in all that mental masturbation exhibited here about the the killing fields that are Syria, people like you and me always end up homeless, killed, raped, locked up in refugee camps with no way out and so on. No matter what you do or don't.

Posted by: Sabine | Feb 19 2020 23:30 utc | 97

I think the M4 and south is critical, the remainder of Idlib not so much. All of those hundreds of pesky drone attacks on the Russian airbase come from south of the M4. They may not seem like much, but whoever is launching them is likely only testing the defenses at this point. In a real war situation, many more drones would be used, and in combination with other attacks could prove to be too much for Russian defenses.

Posted by: Haassan | Feb 19 2020 23:32 utc | 98

This is the kind of infantile, high-school level messages the US military sends:

Forcing Russian vehicle off Syrian road, US military sends a strong message

And that is, I am sorry to say, the mental level of most of our top-level brass, high-school bullies trying to annoy their betters. Real soldiers are not bullies either. Their manhood is not treatened if they cannot intimidate. The US military thinks bullying is what war is all about. Just watch them and see.

Posted by: Bemildred | Feb 19 2020 23:34 utc | 99

Sabine

It happens to people that believe US UK France ectra and join religious nutters to destroy their country. How many of these countries are better off now than when the US began its seven countries in five years war on terror. Now in Syria those that joined the US attempted destruction of Syriua will pay the price of their stupidity.
They have had the option of reconciliation and that is always open. If they are that committed to destroying their country and turning it into terrorist utopia then they deserve whatever happens. Remember the option of reconciliation is always open yet they choose to rely on Turkey.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 19 2020 23:48 utc | 100

next page »

The comments to this entry are closed.