While it is too soon to tell the long term significance of Coronavirus in China or the world, the virus will be used by global leadership as the default cause for the global economic crash that it is helping precipitate.

It is quite possible that the virus will have a more significant health impact on other countries that are not as organized/motivated as the Chinese.

I read somewhere that the virus is possibly airborne. How long does the virus live in an air space and/or on a surface, and in what conditions? The answers to these questions will identify how much of an impact the virus will have on the global supply chain of food and everything. Given the geo-political climate, this event may evolve some alliances sooner.

I have commented before and will repeat my belief that the Coronavirus is/was a conscious element in our current civilization war. People that consider and use nukes offensively have no problem with controlled bio-warfare. If b is correct in his reporting then China will have dodged a bullet and will not have her civilization growth derailed significantly.

Too soon to tell.......

Posted by: psychohistorian | Feb 11 2020 2:20 utc | 201

@ Sasha | Feb 10 2020 22:41 utc | 203 - 7

I had the same experience not long ago -- found out that is what happens when pasting in text that is copied from elsewhere - as is the case if I compose a comment off line, then copy and paste it in here. All you need to do is to paste your text here, then type one new character and everything will work as it should.

Posted by: AntiSpin | Feb 11 2020 2:21 utc | 202

There is a reason that ethnic Chinese are the major victims of the Corona virus

The virus seeks out and attacks specific types of receptors that are inside specific types of cells that are found only in the lung tissues of Asian males.

This has been reported from various medical sources, and posted here several times.

Try to get a grip . . .

Posted by: AntiSpin | Feb 11 2020 2:29 utc | 203

There's no way that a naturally occurring virus would attack ONE ethnic group.

Hmmmmm...
You forgot the most natural way, which is Darwinist evolution. It is natural for a living organism to mutate accordingly to its environment. The virus seems to have its ancestry in China. If there is something specific to Chineses that would be useful to increase the replication and transmission, then sooner or later one mutating virus will be able to use it. The trick here is "sooner or later". Who can tell whether this mutation is "easy" or it would probably require a very long delay?

On the other side one must be accurate: what is different?
- if it's the transmission rate, see above. Then it's hard to conclude something.
- if it's the lethality rate, this could not be as easily explained as a Darwinist evolution. The reason is that There is no benefit for the survival and reproduction of the virus when its host dies. For such mutation to happen, it must at the same time increase the speed of transmission in order to compensate the premature loss of its host.

Posted by: Parisian Guy | Feb 11 2020 2:47 utc | 204

Posted by: c1ue | Feb 11 2020 0:33 utc | 212

The study is perhaps something else than a failed work. It was made in China. Does it look plausible that they could get four samples from non-asians but they couldn't get more than one sample from asians?

Perhaps the hidden message of that Chinese paper was: "Look at this. We demonstrated it. We just don't publish enough evidence for now, but you can be sure we actually have theses missing data about Asians, since the Asian samples are easier to obtain. Now, before the complete release, let's speak together...

Posted by: Parisian Guy | Feb 11 2020 3:38 utc | 205

Posted by: Bruce | Feb 10 2020 20:26 utc | 198

"One netizen even calculated that it would take the burning of 14,000 bodies to reach such a high level of SO2."

Smart Twn Netizens know how to calculate so exact. To burn 14,000 corpses daily will be such great fireworks even can be seen from US & Twn. You see that?

11M Wuhan has capacity of cremating some 300 bodies daily for its natural death rate running 24hrs. The adding of 30 plus nCov daily deads, aggravated death rate out of crisis stress plus those ages deprived of timely care for other illness easily fill up that. The compulsory cremation of deads precaution now may add to the woe.

What's there to surprise if hospitals start cremating deads in outskirts with kerosene when capacity overwhelmed?
They better do that to stop decaying corpse from worsening outbreak. But lying on at least 14000 bodies, good try. Its probably burning of large amount disposed medical materials & rubbish(not to bury as precaution) added the air pollution.

Posted by: TTdr | Feb 11 2020 3:39 utc | 206

Posted by: JC | Feb 10 2020 21:33 utc | 200

Thks for compliment. I thought Godfree is a Oz living in Thailand. He wrote many great articles in Unz & Quora on China topics.

Posted by: TTdr | Feb 11 2020 3:41 utc | 207

It seems a little odd that most victims of the coronavirus are chinese. I understand it started in China but for instance no instances of infection in Indonesia even though there are large numbers of Chinese visitors and ditto Thailand. Apparently there were over 20000 visitors in January alone from Wuhan in Thailand. I wonder what could explain this can anyone offer an opinion?

Posted by: Chibi David | Feb 11 2020 7:58 utc | 208

Let us all see how many new commenters who claim to be interested are willing to listen through 40 minutes of information in the form of a daily official and public WHO news conference. This is the most recent one at the time of writing and is for February the 10th. This is the official WHO audio recording, sputniknews tried to do live video coverage of it (available both at sputniknews and YouTube) but theirs suffered from several technical difficulties and interruptions.

Direct URL to the mp3 file which is roughly 77.6 MB in size.

After the first six minutes which answers some questions asked here the rest is somewhat shoddy media questions however the WHO answers are still very informative.

A little of it is in French but both question and answer is summed up in English.

It might not be entirely clear to all that listen who the people talking are, it is:
· Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus (WHO Director-General)
· Dr. Sylvie Briand (Director, Global Infectious Hazard Preparedness, WHO)
· Dr. Michael J. Ryan (Executive Director, WHO Health Emergencies Programme)

There is more available at the correct WHO page, it shouldn't take much effort to find it.

Here is a link to the Wikipedia page on ECMO for anyone who does not know what it is.

Fun fact: the Guardian couldn't even successfully make a phone call :P (sure it might not have been their fault but let's pretend it was).

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Feb 11 2020 8:19 utc | 209

Actually in an effort for me to be a little less of an idiot here is that WHO web page with press briefings (audio and a bit later transcripts as well, I don't do social media where they said they have video).

Sorry for my grumpiness …I would love to be able to live under an upturned tree-root deep in some forest if I could survive on gnawing stone, bridge entirely optional :D

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Feb 11 2020 9:14 utc | 210

There are three other reasons for the CCP to fudge its numbers. The first is the still vibrant tradition of "face" and the second is the tendency, particularly in authoritarian bureaucracies, for functionaries to desperately avoid blame. The third is the CCP/China's highly sensitive nationaIism, particularly to perceived inadequacies vs the west. I hope the CCP has moved beyond these to transparency, for all our sakes.

Posted by: NoOneYouKnow | Feb 9 2020 20:21 utc | 162

I have seen this type of thinking for years. Is there anyone more fanatical about saving face than authorities in USA? Recent case: brain injuries may be hard to diagnose or classify, but HOW LONG IT CAN TAKE to diagnose a smallish set of people from several bunkers? Ah, but it would make the President and the Military look bad. Both DESPERATELY avoiding blame -- following a "deeply ingrained custom".

And the highly sensitive American nationalism would requires something akin to WWIII if the facts were disclosed to quickly. First our POTUS, like his predecessor, boldly announces a "red line". Then by golly, he has to keep his word! But if that would be disastrous, well, facts have to be altered. For all we know, some troops will die of pneumonia or some such.

At the end of the day, the difference between "authoritarian bureaucracy" and our system of governance is that ours operates more sluggishly. A similar response to the current Chinese one that fast? Suppose this epidemic started in St. Louis, Missouri... I guess after six months the authorities would settle on a plan of action.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Feb 11 2020 11:03 utc | 211

dotje source:
Professor N. Ferguson, Imperial College
Dozens of publications (Global times, Zh, Tawain Times, SCMP, NY Times, CNN, MSnbc, youtube, etc et al)

For a professor, N Ferguson is a publicity freak. That suggests that his prediction would have a bias for dramatic.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Feb 11 2020 11:07 utc | 212

@ Posted by: ak74 | Feb 11 2020 1:16 utc | 201

That possibility is zero. There are already cases of non-Asian westerners being infected.

The chance of a virus mutation to affect only a specific ethnic group is close to non-existent. What probably happened is that chances are a North American that is willing to travel to China - specially to a non-touristic city such as Wuhan - being of Chinese descent (with parents still living there) are much greater than a pure-blood European descent one.

Posted by: vk | Feb 11 2020 12:10 utc | 213

@vk 201

The question was not about infected. It was about deceased.

Posted by: Parisian Guy | Feb 11 2020 12:46 utc | 214

@ Posted by: Parisian Guy | Feb 11 2020 12:46 utc | 215

I'm sure there must be some non-Asian westerners deceased already.

88% of the dead are 60+ aged. It's again all about correlation: what are the chances an old non-Asian westerner will visit a non-touristic city in China? I didn't look at the numbers, but my guess would be zero.

For a non-Asian westerner to visit a city like Wuhan, he/she would most probably be on a business trip. Westerners on a business trip to a Third World country usually live isolated in five-star hotels, and travel with private chauffeurs, only to meet his/her other westerner counterparts with one or two local elite Third-Worlder who serve as a bridge to the target country. They are usually at their prime (i.e. they are not old people). Contact with the local populace is non-existent (unless he/she is of the adventurous type, which is very rare).

Either that, or it is simply a rich guy with a very bad luck. An illustrative case of this stereotype is the British "super-spreader" case. A 53-year old businessman, he contracted the virus while on a conference in Singapore. Lucky for the European people, he went straight up for skiing in the French Alps (a relatively isolated area), before finally being diagnosed in Brighton on February 6th. A rich guy, he probably doesn't walk on the streets - and even then, he is believed to have infected 11 people. Being a ski fan, he probably wasn't a smoker and, being rich, he probably had an above-average health for a man his age.

Curiously, he was treated in the NHS - where he was also put in total isolation (not seing the NHS being accused by the NYT of setting up "quarantine camps").

Posted by: vk | Feb 11 2020 13:06 utc | 215

Like nearly all of us here, I have no clue where the Truth starts and ends in this particular event.

However the words from PNAC Sept. 2000 report "REBUILDING AMERICA’S DEFENSES" are very clear as to where the Neocons in the US intend to push the World,

Although it may take several decades
for the process of transformation to unfold,
in time, the art of warfare on air, land, and
sea will be vastly different than it is today,
and “combat” likely will take place in new
dimensions: in space, “cyber-space,” and
perhaps the world of microbes. Air warfare
may no longer be fought by pilots manning
tactical fighter aircraft sweeping the skies of
opposing fighters, but a regime dominated
by long-range, stealthy unmanned craft. On
land, the clash of massive, combined-arms
armored forces may be replaced by the
dashes of much lighter, stealthier and
information-intensive forces, augmented by
fleets of robots, some small enough to fit in
soldiers’ pockets. Control of the sea could
be largely determined not by fleets of
surface combatants and aircraft carriers, but
from land- and space-based systems, forcing
navies to maneuver and fight underwater.
Space itself will become a theater of war, as
nations gain access to space capabilities and
come to rely on them; further, the distinction
between military and commercial space
systems – combatants and noncombatants –
will become blurred. Information systems
will become an important focus of attack,
particularly for U.S. enemies seeking to
short-circuit sophisticated American forces.
And advanced forms of biological warfare
that can “target” specific genotypes may
transform biological warfare from the realm
of terror to a politically useful tool.

Obviously "specific genotypes" doesn't refer to rats and cats but most certainly to people.

Posted by: Tom_LX | Feb 11 2020 14:11 utc | 216

Cotton sits on the Senate's Select Committee on Intelligence - missed his comments of last week, but is this another "accuse your opponent of what you do" or just pandering to xenophobes? https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/09/chinese-diplomat-coronavirus-gop-senator-112820 The Hill also covered the Chinese Ambassador's response. As of the end of last week, WHO (via the daily press conferences held in Geneva and available on youtube via the United Nations' channel) told reporters that neither the source nor natural reservoir of this virus has been identified. RT this morning uploaded to youtube video purported to be Chinese disinfection of the streets . . . are they really, or is that just something the Chinese do anyway?

Posted by: Zee | Feb 11 2020 16:44 utc | 217

To all those who want a clear view of the coronavirus development, please visit:

https//www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/:

Then some clear conclusions are inescapable. Even if most humans can contract it,
only Asians reach critical conditions.

Add Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross' claims that "the coronavirus is good for American Business and will lead to
US resurgence."

Food for thought.

Posted by: 1CarlD | Feb 11 2020 17:04 utc | 218

@ Posted by: 1CarlD | Feb 11 2020 17:04 utc | 219

Because the epicenter is in China.

By your logic, I could state the Black Plague can only infect white Europeans.

Posted by: vk | Feb 11 2020 17:47 utc | 219

TTdr @ 207
"To burn 14,000 corpses daily will be such great fireworks even can be seen from US & Twn. You see that?"
With what? Binoculars? If one can see burning corpses, one can see burning medical supplies, which is your alternative and preferred interpretation of the data ("Its probably burning of large amount disposed medical materials & rubbish(not to bury as precaution) added the air pollution"). Either they're burning something or they're not burning something. What can be seen from afar is anyone's guess but as China is rather large, it would be seen from a satellite. I don't think what's burned is easily distinguished via satellite imagery. If it's a publicly available satellite image, someone can go fetch those images and reflect on how that information relates to the reported increases in atmospheric SO2. If it's a private satellite image, who is to say it is not visible, given the parties who access those may have no interest in sharing the results with us at this point in time. I believe the point of looking at SO2 emissions is that we do not have adequate visual data to make any realistic assumptions. The drone footage is only of the downtown areas, so far as I have seen.

Posted by: Bruce | Feb 11 2020 18:00 utc | 220

@ Posted by: Bruce | Feb 11 2020 18:00 utc | 221

This burning corpses conspiracy theory already is debunked. A simple google maps visit to the address demonstrates there's a coal plant there.

Posted by: vk | Feb 11 2020 18:17 utc | 221

VK,

The Plague would have not contaminated the Japanese because they bore no fleas. Any of the clean
People on this Earth would have been unscathed by the Plague.

But since Europeans of that age were such filthy individuals and families and hygiene was nowhere to be seen
the end result is they suffered the brunt of it.

Rest assured that the naked people of the Amazon would not have been touched by it, nor the Caribbean Aborigines.

Now back to the Coronavirus.

The epicenter is in China. Sure. But bear in mind that those of not Asian ethnicity do not become critically ill.

It means that either naturally or by design, the virus seems to be genome-specific, up to now.

Unless we get a few Caucasians dead in the near future, it is to be anticipated that the non-asian World will be spared
because whoever designed the virus, man or God, intended to cull Asians.

Posted by: CarlD | Feb 11 2020 18:30 utc | 222

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Feb 11 2020 11:07 utc | 213

Well said, correction dorje and not dotje
BTW, dorje also a racist. If you hate a Chinese you'll alway hate Chinese no matter what......

Posted by: JC | Feb 11 2020 18:41 utc | 223

@ Posted by: CarlD | Feb 11 2020 18:30 utc | 223

Since when Japan didn't have fleas? Where did you get that information?

There will not be a pandemic because the Chinese quarantine was efficient, not because non-Han are naturally resistent/immune to the coronavirus.

Some individuals are naturally immune to a virus - but these characteristics may or may not be ethnically related. Even when they, it is because a huge natural selection purge happened before.

Posted by: vk | Feb 11 2020 18:42 utc | 224

Coronavirus ninds to ACE2 receptors.

East Asians have more of these receptors:

https://www.researchgate.net/figure/ACE-II-genotype-frequency-in-different-populations-countries_tbl2_5642354

https://twitter.com/HarmlessYardDog/status/1222635075046649856

Posted by: clickkid | Feb 11 2020 18:53 utc | 225

VK

At the time of the Black Plague, transmitted by fleas, the Japanese were, and are still, very clean people,
bathing at least once a day and donning fresh clothes every day.

Read James Clavell, Shogun, and be enlightened.

Meanwhile, Europeans wore the same clothes all the time, bathing once a year in a wooden tub. Household head first,
followed by all males and then by the females and finally the Babies.

Posted by: CarlD | Feb 11 2020 19:01 utc | 226

@ak74 #201
There are simply not enough numbers outside of China to really matter yet.
In addition, as I've said before, there aren't many old, sick people who travel to China to vacation.
It is also becoming more likely that the death rate in Wuhan is higher because of a lack of health care: both hospital beds and health care delivery professionals.

Posted by: c1ue | Feb 11 2020 19:13 utc | 227

@Parisian Guy #206
I don't know what study you refer to, but this is what I saw as the basis for every single one of the lame-ass "Asian susceptibility" nonsense articles: Source
The 8 patients in question: 5 Africans, 2 White and 1 Asian. All already dead. All not dead due to nCOV.
The Asian was a former smoker; the Africans never smoked, the White people were active smokers.
Is a study with this small a sample worth anything at all? No.
This is even disregarding the smoking situation - would anyone argue that being a smoker is likely to affect the lungs?
What about environmental causes? If the Asian man lived in Beijing - would that famously polluted air have an impact on his lungs?
There may well be differences - but this study is utterly worthless to determine if they really exist.

Posted by: c1ue | Feb 11 2020 19:21 utc | 228

Re. the Novel Coronavirus imho there is not enough solid info. to be sure of anything. Which is not suspicious in itself, we humans can’t dominate nature, our analytical tools are poor.

I saw a screed by some Random-Stat-Guy who tried some curve fitting, well, no use, when the nos. are the outcome of too many unknows that vary over time (sensitivity / aka efficacity of test, reporting of mildly-affected ppl, distinction between hospitalised / not, criteria for being lodged in one category or another, treatment applied, outcome … although dead, 死, is sorta unambiguous …)

>see also Theophrastus at 35.

Impossible to conclude.

Everyone is dead (sic) - scared of some pandemic and all tops (Intl Authorities, PTB, WHO, in world) are praising China for the crackdown it is implementing. Rightly so, as it seems those outside China are spared for the moment. Or, they suspect (know?) of some greater disaster and support China to the hilt in the face of it.

tv doc - only in F.

Marseille: La peste noire de 1720

Black Death, explores the idea that the Town was sacrificied to commercial interests. Shows pointedly how little has changed. It is quite well done, worth a watch. I refd. previous to the Swiss Model of containment, of course nobody likes to look at that (old hat), … we may even be less well armed against epidemics, pandemics, than in 1700 or so.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ggaSA1eTEM

Marseille was closed off. Probably too late. A large part of the measures concerned the goods that came in (by ship) which were ‘quarantined’…

Admin struggles, probably fraud, took place to obtain a ‘patente de santé’, that is, certificate of good health, i.e. as non-contaminated. Of course all on spec, without any ‘scientific’ tests.

Posted by: Noirette | Feb 11 2020 19:30 utc | 229

ZEROHEDGE BREAKING NEWS

New insights are emerging about the tricks employed by the evil Chinese dictatorship. According to a well respected source, who is wanting to endanger his life for telling the truth to the Free World, for which we cannot reveal more than its covertname, vk@comment#222, There is stronger than ever evidences that hundreds of thousands of corpses are disappearing in the furnaces of Wuhan's coal plants.

Posted by: ZEROHEDGE | Feb 11 2020 19:48 utc | 230

@vk216
"I'm sure there must be some non-Asian westerners deceased already."

You're very good at reasoning but you also are a little bit lazy when it comes to look at reality.

I will be corrected if I am wrong but for now I've never heard of a deceased non-Asian. Neither did I hear of a critical condition. The British are going fine.
Of course there are too few infected, and they are too fresh. It is also a plausible explanation. Time will tell

By the way, the question of plausibility of mutations is about virus mutations. Darwinist selection does apply to virus too. Optimization of its adaptation to its environment is unavoidable, in the long term. Therefore like any living thing it will adapt to the specific character of it's available food, which is the local human beings.

Posted by: Parisian Guy | Feb 11 2020 20:37 utc | 231

@c1ue #229

Yes. I was speaking about that paper.

Just have a look at the authors affiliation. Academics from Shanghai and Guangzhou. Due to the diplomatic explosiveness of the topic, I am doubting if they actually could release such (unsubstantiated for now, OK, but ) charges without government support.

Posted by: Parisian Guy | Feb 11 2020 21:00 utc | 232

@Parisian Guy #234
I have no idea what you're trying to say.
Is it that the Chinese government is trying to show that Asians are more susceptible to nCOV because it helps them, how?
My original point, which still stands, is that the paper is not useful for anything given the single person from which conclusions are being drawn.

Posted by: c1ue | Feb 11 2020 21:31 utc | 233

@Zee #218

is this another "accuse your opponent of what you do" or just pandering to xenophobes?

If the only purpose was smearing China, then it was absolutely unwise since it would almost certainly fireback. There is quite enough publicly released info about US activities for this end outcome. Then any other kind of bullshit would have been more suitable.

On the other side, if the US knew (how is it?) that unavoidably such charges will soon come against them, then it was wise from them to preemptively revert the accusation. There do exist an unconscious prejudice which gives more credit to the side who is first to accuse the other side.

This reasoning was from my POV a real clue which made me giving serious attention to the bioweapon hypothesis.
I told it to PavewayIV around the end of the previous thread on nCov.

Posted by: Parisian Guy | Feb 11 2020 22:07 utc | 234

@c1ue 235

Therefore, you neither had idea of the meaning of my comment 206, to which you nevertheless answered. Well, my fault or your fault, anyway I was speaking about a process for blackmail: the blackmailer publicly releases a redacted version of the compromat. The effect is this:
- average Joe don't understand, or believes something for no rational reason. Anyway, he's conditioned to get more of it.
- those who are in the known. They understand the charges, and this is already bad for the blackmailed. But it's still repairable since no substantial evidence are yet released.
- the blackmailed understands that the blackmailer only needs a few more mouse clicks to release the unredacted version of the compromat. The threat could materialize in a very short time, therefore the blackmailed cannot make any defensive moves before the full release.

For instance Putin had released one photo of the Erdogan'trucks smuggling ISIS oil. Not enough for myself to be sure of what Putin claimed. But Erdogan could know by looking at the photo if Putin could really have got a heavy compromat. Dumb Erdogan didn't understand he had to negotiate. Then Putin released a few more photos, after what Erdogan became more compliant.
Another time, Putin released a few photos vaguely showing US encampments which were friendly intertwined with those of ISIS. No more was released after the first photos. Being more smart than Erdogan, they probably negotiated when the released amount was limited enough to be deniable.

Posted by: Parisian Guy | Feb 11 2020 23:19 utc | 235

Today's WHO press conference re: coronavirus: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hd2QoYt5Fcw

Things which caught my interest - 1) headlines about the Chinese state agency's changing the definition to exclude asymptomatic cases got it completely backwards - apparently, China's health facilities are now routinely testing for coronavirus (when you come in for something else), finding it in asymptomatic individuals and are now including such individuals in the "confirmed cases" category, and 2) the genetic code of the virus is publicly available, virologists have identified it as appearing to be, yes, similar to a bat virus, the Wuhan seafood market, which did not have a lot of bats, apparently, turned up multiple environmental samples of contamination with the virus, testing of the different species of animals (presumed to be an "intermediary" host of a mutated bat virus) has so far yielded no intermediary host, but testing continues. Let's hope they find the intermediary host. Otherwise, the multiple environmental contaminations at the market is a bit hard to explain unless there is a human who went to the market after contracting the virus from a bat. Will the real Patient 0 please stand up?

Posted by: Zee | Feb 11 2020 23:44 utc | 236

@Bruce 237

I already said that Taiwan News is the outlet of the Taiwanese anti-China political movement. It pretends that the document came from the windy.com website. Taiwan News is the only witness of the authenticity of the document, nobodyelse had noticed what they claim, although the website is available to billions of people. Like the Tencent story, one pattern appears: "thousands were watching, but only the most partisan one claimed that he saw something strange, which happens to benefit its political agenda. Furthermore the claim can't be checked."
All this should have alerted you. Furthermore I remember having given to you a link about the importance of checkable claims.
Therefore, without any remorse for giving you the ridicule that you deserve, here is the link to a site similar to windy.com, but he keeps some archive of past days: there was nothing special in SO2 rates around Wuhan that 8th of February
https://earth.nullschool.net/fr/#2020/02/07/2300Z/chem/surface/level/overlay=so2smass/orthographic=-247.57,30.01,1203

Posted by: Parisian Guy | Feb 12 2020 1:35 utc | 237

Parisian Guy @241
You previously complained about unverifiable claims made by various media sources, but what you offered were nothing more than a series of irrelevant links. Not one of your links addressed the comments you implied they refuted. You were blowing smoke.
That Taiwan is at odds with China has been a given since 1949 when the paper was established. It doesn't mean what they post is necessarily disinformation to make China look bad, or we must also conclude all the Chinese data is disinformation to make them look good. Your logic is wanting. And while you are entitled to call the Taiwan Times a bunch of liars, you might consider you are an anonymous poster on a forum on the Internet, and not entitled to any inherent credibility thereby.
The data you complain about can be verified. Instead repeating a useless objection like a mantra and endlessly bashing at everyone on this forum in haphazard fashion, why don't you offer some data yourself? Go get the data from those days from both sites. You wrote: "here is the link to a site similar to windy.com, but he keeps some archive of past days: there was nothing special in SO2 rates around Wuhan that 8th of February."
You gave a link to the site. Let's see you come up with the data you say is there, and post it on this forum. The rude nature of your comments suggests you are blowing smoke.

Posted by: Bruce | Feb 12 2020 2:21 utc | 238

The chance of a virus mutation to affect only a specific ethnic group is close to non-existent. What probably happened is that chances are a North American that is willing to travel to China - specially to a non-touristic city such as Wuhan - being of Chinese descent (with parents still living there) are much greater than a pure-blood European descent one.
Posted by: vk | Feb 11 2020 12:10 utc | 214

https://www.thinglink.com/scene/596398538917675010

Apparently, Black Death had some ethnic specificity, or at least, territorial specificity. Poland was surrounded by affected countries, but it was spared. Actually, this period was a first golden age in Poland, the fragmented state was consolidated, population grew, the cities flourished, there was also a bit on conquest absorbing kingdom of Halych what that gave name to Galicia, curiously sharing the name with another Fascist cradle in Spain), and Halych was spared of Black Death as well. The colors of the spread come from rather sketchy chronicles, so one could over-interpret.

This aberration in the spread of Black Death has different theories, one being genetic difference. Another is the reliance on sleds for trade that was mostly conducted in winter. At other times the roads were a morass of muds and potholes, but in winter they were smooth. That make it hard for rats and fleas to hitch rides, unlike areas were good were transported by means that functioned well above freezing.

No theory postulated superior cleanliness of humans and rats. Japan being spared could be easily explained by patterns of trade. As sailors from other nations got sick, they did not venture to Japan.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Feb 12 2020 4:42 utc | 239

For instance Putin had released one photo of the Erdogan's trucks smuggling ISIS oil. Not enough for myself to be sure of what Putin claimed. But Erdogan could know by looking at the photo if Putin could really have got a heavy compromat. Dumb Erdogan didn't understand he had to negotiate. Then Putin released a few more photos, after what Erdogan became more compliant.
Another time, Putin released a few photos vaguely showing US encampments which were friendly intertwined with those of ISIS. No more was released after the first photos. Being more smart than Erdogan, they probably negotiated when the released amount was limited enough to be deniable.

Posted by: Parisian Guy | Feb 11 2020 23:19 utc | 236

Any student of international affair can observe amazingly effective ability of Erdoğan and USA to deny the obvious. Thus neither is susceptible to compromat.

BTW, I was told that Erdogan and Erdoğan sound quite different, ğ is silent, Erdo-an, not Erdo-gan. This guy even denies that there is a consonant there!

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Feb 12 2020 4:53 utc | 240

Parisian Guy @238 (sorry not 241)

Spiked levels of sulfur dioxide emissions in Wuhan were recently used to suggest that tens of thousands of bodies might have been cremated. https://www.voanews.com/science-health/coronavirus-outbreak/china-struggles-cope-surging-numbers-infected-coronavirus

Cloud of sulphur dioxide hints at scale of China’s coronavirus cremations
https://metro.co.uk/2020/02/10/cloud-sulphur-dioxide-hints-scale-chinas-coronavirus-cremations-12215712/?ito=cbshare

SULPHUR DIOXIDE CLOUDS HINT HIGH SCALE OF CREMATIONS IN CHINA, REVEAL CORONAVIRUS IS DEADLIER THAN IT SEEMS
https://www.skymetweather.com/content/global-news/sulphur-dioxide-clouds-hint-high-scale-of-cremations-in-china-reveal-coronavirus-is-deadlier-than-it-seems/

Posted by: Bruce | Feb 12 2020 4:56 utc | 241

re Bruce | Feb 12 2020 4:56 utc | 242

Of all the lame attempts to beat up Coronavirus into a SHOCK! HORROR! lets blame the chinks for the impending collapse of the world's economy.
See here, here and here. The NYT, had many such stories like this but I got bored emptying cookies, by all means check it out yerself.

This 'too many cremations' scenario has to be the lamest see What causes sulfur dioxide emissions? and you'll see cremation doesn't feature anywhere. What does feature as the #1 cause is coal powered electricity generation, which is still the primary way many regions of China generate power. There is much movement away from coal as an energy source but the shift takes time.
The fantastic notion that burning bodies causes SO2 emmissions greater than huge industrial coal fired generators is the fucking silliest attempt to play the 'blame a chinaman' game yet.

It is just plain insulting to all MoA readers to insinuate any of us could possibly be that moronic.

Posted by: A User | Feb 12 2020 5:18 utc | 242

The average sulfur content of coal in the north of China is 0.77%, but it is more than double (1.71%) in the south.

... sulfur makes ca. 0.3% of total body mass for humans ...

Supplying power to Wuhan requires many thousands of tons of coal. Because of his central location, Wuhan can get coal from different region. Switching the type of coal would make a larger effect than burning many thousands of human bodies each day: a combination of a ton northern coal and 40-50 humans would have the same amount of sulfur as a ton of southern coal, and the province consumes ca. 300,000 tons of coal each day. You could burn a million of humans each day and explain it by the switch between varieties of coal, this is just a mental exercise to show that cremating bodies produces a very tiny component in sulfur emission that can very quite a bit as coal can come from different provinces and even from Australia.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Feb 12 2020 5:30 utc | 243

Bruce @ 242, A User @ 243:

The sources promoting most heavily the narrative of crematoria working around the clock burning bodies so as to help the Chinese government fudge the death statistics include the New Tang Dynasty TV network, owned and run by the Falun Gong religious crazies. These are the people whose messiah Li Hongzhi believes he can turn himself invisible just by thinking "I am invisible". It would not surprise me if Falun Gong turn out to be the ones who started this narrative in the first place.

Posted by: Jen | Feb 12 2020 10:25 utc | 244

Personally I am of the opinion that the "crematoria" narrative originates from the same narrative spinner in northern Virginia who fed the story to the press and the paid "Internet marketing professionals" making their nickel/posts in social media of "mobile crematoria" cooking up dead Russians in Donbass. I'm not saying the same organization (we all know which one sits at the top of "Operation Mockingbird"), but actually the same individual within that organization. The individual has some odd fixation with cremation... probably has nightmares about it, I would imagine.

Posted by: William Gruff | Feb 12 2020 10:47 utc | 245

@ Posted by: Piotr Berman | Feb 12 2020 4:42 utc | 240

Oh, great - now we have to pretend to have precise data from the Middle Ages in order to make absurd points. That's new to me.

There simply are no numbers from before the Second Industrial Revolution. People before that didn't think in economic terms, they didn't have the concept of statistics or of economic theory. All those numbers you read and hear on the newspapers or the internet are extrapolations some random historians with basis on very - very - fragmentary data gathered from non-trustable written sources and archaeological findings.

We don't even know the total populations of the main medieval cities, let alone how many people died from the Black Plague, much less which "ethnic group" (peoples from the Middle Ages also didn't have anthropology, so they also didn't think in ethnographic terms) was more or less affected.

--//--

@ Posted by: Bruce | Feb 12 2020 4:56 utc | 242

But do your sources know the historical series of Wuhan? How many "sulphur dioxide clouds" have the city had over the last 50 years? Maybe it's a common thing in Wuhan.

Remember: westerners didn't even know Wuhan existed before the new coronavirus broke out. Your sources don't have the appropriate context.

Posted by: vk | Feb 12 2020 11:44 utc | 246

@Piotr Berman 240
Apparently, Black Death had some ethnic specificity, or at least, territorial specificity. Poland was surrounded by affected countries, but it was spared.
Here's my hypothesis:
As shown quite above by a comment from @Noirette, ships were the main vector for international spreading of the plague. Rats were the carriers. They dwelled on board of ships which carried grain.
Since Poland was a big producer of grain, it exported a lot, and it almost never imported.
Therefore the plague carrying rats were not imported.
Furthermore one can guess that Poles were less affected by the general under nourishment which helped the plague development.

Posted by: Parisian Guy | Feb 12 2020 13:11 utc | 247

vk: Polish anomaly during Black Death seems pretty certain, precise geographic and temporal extend cannot be precise because of the sparse nature of medieval records. I just wanted to point out that "ethic-specific" impact is possible, could be linked to diet, lifestyle, methods in agriculture or transportation etc. And genetics.

Concerning "sulphur (sulfur?)" cloud, I calculated that with the amount of coal burned in the region (the province consumed more that 100 million tons last year) and differences in the type of coal, and in use of electricity, you have variability of coal sulphur emissions that exceed by many orders of magnitude the possible impact of cremation, I mean, at least 100 times. The precision of satellite data can hardly be so large that would allow to discern contribution from such a minor source.

Chinese provinces invested insane amounts in building coal-fired power station and electricity is cheap. Heating in Chinese apartments used to be bad. With cheap electricity and better income, Wuhanese probably use a lot of electric heaters that are used more if they stay at home more as it is now. Of course, weather has a big impact too. Thus the amount of coal burned each day is different. And the types of coal can differ too.

Attributing variability in sulphur to cremation of bodies smells sulphur, rumors on viruses spread virally. Never underestimate predictive power of stupid puns, and never overestimate reliability of newspapers on matters that require calculations, however simple.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Feb 12 2020 13:28 utc | 248

@W. Gruff 346
The individual has some odd fixation with cremation... probably has nightmares about it, I would imagine.

There is no random coincidence here. The guys in Langley know how to produce nightmarish narratives. There is two benefits:
- the induced fear does suspend the little bit of rational analysis that humans could use.
- the thrill makes the narrative going viral.

I know a lot about freudian psychoanalytic psychology and psychopathology. I can smell war propaganda before having any clue about what actually happened.

Posted by: Parisian Guy | Feb 12 2020 13:44 utc | 249

This is mostly just a small sigh of exasperation but there is a danger someone might learn something too… :)

Yes this information is taken from another WHO news briefing, this one on the 11th. Here's the direct link (mp3 file, about 57.3 MB slightly poor audio quality and a few journalists didn't use the microphone when asking questions).

For anyone who wants to do better than far too many journalists (who insist on getting it wrong):

· COVID-19 = disease. It is the name of the disease. The name is made from combining parts of "Corona Virus Disease 2019" into something easily pronounceable.

· 2019-nCoV = virus. It is the temporary name of the virus. The name is made from using the year and shortening "novel Corona Virus". Later (perhaps much later) it (the virus) will get a proper taxonomical name.

If you understand the parts in bold then you're already smarter than most journalists, congratulations! :D (Okay, anyone can mess up a little, me too, but their job is still supposed to be to inform).

Like Zee in an earlier comment I too noticed that the truth of what China did was sensible and the complete opposite to the US/CIA rumors. No shock there.

By the way I'm not the biggest fan of the UN or the WHO and can always find flaws or worse but when they say sensible things (like they currently do aside from on some currently less central issues like censorship) then I'm not going to argue otherwise.

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Feb 12 2020 14:05 utc | 250

"...never overestimate reliability of newspapers on matters that require calculations..." --Piotr Berman @249

Particularly not when the staff of those newspapers are members of a society in the throes of mass hysteria and being bombarded by hyper-jingoism: hyper-jingoism that the newspaper staff themselves are are producing and then consuming in a sentience-destroying positive feedback loop. As the hysteria intensifies, annoying details like facts and calculations and reason itself are dispensed with in order to let that feedback loop tighten into an inchoate wail of reptilian brain anguish.

After all, newspaper people are human too, and just because they are tasked with manufacturing jingoism doesn't make them immune to it.

Posted by: William Gruff | Feb 12 2020 14:08 utc | 251

https://www.ceicdata.com/en/china/coal-balance-sheet-hubei?page=3

The link is to official Chinese coal statistics for Hubei province. I grew up in Communist Poland and my mother was a statistician, so I recognize the pattern of extensive statistics, meticulously compiled and published each year in thick volumes. Finding statistics in free market USA is hard (more precisely, there are paywalls), but Communist believe in planning and planing needs statistics.

As numerate bar denizens can see, the province of Wuhan consumes a lot of coal, thus I was citing 300,000 tons per day on the average, and 80-90% of it come from other places. Wuhan historically emerged as a hub of water transport, and later, railroad hub as well. As the electricity production increased a lot, roughly doubling in 10 years, accommodating variable demand is easy, and there are reasons for variability. And there are provinces with coal surplus in different directions. Simple calculation shows that daily sulphur emissions from coal in the province would equal the sulphur content of FIVE TO FIFTEEN MILLION human bodies, dependent on the type of coal.

But Wuhan is not the province. The numbers are similar as England with metro London or France with metro Paris, the metropolis having roughly 20% of population and similar proportion in energy consumption. So the average sulphur emissions from Wuhan metro area would equal ONE TO THREE MILLION human bodies dependent on the type of coal. A small switch gives larger emission change than a huge epidemic, I mean, Black Death type of epidemic with hundred thousand bodies each day.

One can also conjecture big impact of the epidemic on electricity consumption. Some industries would slow down and consume less. But heating homes would increase. Additionally, people could be advised to keep warmer than notoriously low levels that Chinese (and even Japanese, something cultural) usually maintain in winter.

I repeat those points because too many people ignore numbers when we assess information from the internet. The discussion usually analyzes the potential bias of sources, which is surely a valid consideration, but inherently inconclusive. But there is a general pattern that helps: truth is typically more consistent and more complete than lies or mistakes. In this case, we have statistics that show that reports cited by Bruce had absurdly wrong interpretations.

But statistics are not always available, like in a recent East-West controversy about OPCW. There are two basic and very different narratives that appeal to different estimates of reliability of the proponents. However, one side provides a lot of details about ballistics, medical symptoms and detected levels of chlorine compounds, while the other side responds purely with attacks on reliability, without any objectively superior credentials, while not responding to the details at all. And the details of the "Eastern side" look quite credible. Novichok incidents have similar asymmetry of detailed analysis on the side of "conspiracy theorists" and "Her Majesty Government". But as we have seen with sulphur emission, providing details does not mean that they are true, so we have to read and ponder the consistency.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Feb 12 2020 14:36 utc | 252

Since Poland was a big producer of grain, it exported a lot, and it almost never imported.
Therefore the plague carrying rats were not imported.
Furthermore one can guess that Poles were less affected by the general under nourishment which helped the plague development.

Posted by: Parisian Guy | Feb 12 2020 13:11 utc | 248

Poland became a grain exporter 100 years later, and Baltic trade became important two hundred years later. The maritime export from Polish Kingdom did not exist in XIV century because the coast was in the hands of Teutonic Order that had military conflicts with the kingdom, the trade links would go through Hungary, an allied country, and Bohemia, Bohemian/Czech crown controlled Silesia. As the trade could not use rivers, it focused on lighter goods. I guess Poland was exporting salt and red die extracted from insect larvae and processed with alum. Self-sufficiency was high and closing trade for extensive periods would not be a problem. However, that raises the question about Scandinavia and Rus/Russia. There probably we have a bias for records from cities on the sea shore and hubs of river transport, and the lack of records from vast hinterlands, while map-makers were averaging over territorially big political units based on some monastery records in few towns.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Feb 12 2020 15:00 utc | 253

@Bruce

Your pride is not your best friend. Not wanting to run personal attacks but I can't think of other explanation for you continuing to defend your POV with so counterproductive claims.

1) You want to show that it's not propaganda war but a point which is independently made by several media. Then you begins your practical demonstration by linking to Voice Of America. Unfortunately for you, there is no Nobel Prize in the art of self-sabotage.

2) there is no independence of your sources. They only parroted Taiwan News. The evidence of the parroting is that they curiously made the same screengrab at the same time from the same weather website.

3) You claims that the authenticity of the screengrab from windy.com can be checked. This claim is wrong, and it doesn't looks like a really honest error. It was very easy for you to see that no archive of previous days are available from windy.com.

4) About the link I gave to nullschool, it is relevant enough, since it give maps of SO2 above China for the relevant day, which is 8th of February. I perhaps overlooked the difficulty of the user interface of this website which I use quite often. Since the burden of evidence is on your side, you must either try harder on nullschool or find a third weather website which would be user friendly enough for you.

Posted by: Parisian Guy | Feb 12 2020 15:28 utc | 254

As the hysteria intensifies, annoying details like facts and calculations and reason itself are dispensed with in order to let that feedback loop tighten into an inchoate wail of reptilian brain anguish.

After all, newspaper people are human too, and just because they are tasked with manufacturing jingoism doesn't make them immune to it.

Posted by: William Gruff | Feb 12 2020 14:08 utc | 252

Once again, we broadly agree. However, media content producers (called journalists in antiquity) garble facts and numbers in the most tranquil times to, and this lets them go totally unhinged in times of crisis and/or acute political demands.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Feb 12 2020 16:17 utc | 255

@ Piotr B.

I didn't imagine that the mouth of the Vistule was grabbed by Teutonics several decades before the plague

I'd like to know if your claim "no grain export by the Baltic at this time" is a documented historical fact, or a logical consequence that you pulls from the Teutonic conquest?

My idea is such: Is there a stronger incentive for conquering the mouth of a big river than to control the exchange of goods and therefore reap the profits of the shipping trade?
Thus the conquest by Teutonic of Gdansk area is more a clue of actual shipping export/import going well in this hub than the contrary.

There's numerous historical cases of conquest of shipping hub. The purpose was mainly to capture the profits from the trade.

Posted by: Parisian Guy | Feb 12 2020 16:22 utc | 256

@Piotr Berman #240
Even disregarding the highly unlikely possibility that Polish are sufficiently genetically different than their neighbors, I cringe anytime I see sometime like "relative unaffected". What does this mean? They suffered 25% deaths instead of 50%? In fact, about 25% of Poland's population died. This is only a win in relative terms. Milan also had a lower rate during the Black Plague...

However, the explanation in this case is much simpler: the Poles quarantined their borders. It wasn't due to germ theory understanding - it was more likely a xenophobic and/or religious edict from Casimir, but it worked.

Posted by: c1ue | Feb 12 2020 17:53 utc | 257

Parisian Guy @255
You wrote: “I perhaps overlooked the difficulty of the user interface of this website which I use quite often. Since the burden of evidence is on your side, you must either try harder on nullschool or find a third weather website which would be user friendly enough for you.”
You wrote that in response to my challenge which stated: “You previously complained about unverifiable claims made by various media sources, but what you offered were nothing more than a series of irrelevant links. Not one of your links addressed the comments you implied they refuted. You were blowing smoke.”
You are stone cold busted for blowing smoke on the Moon of Alabama forum. Your potential for credibility here is extinguished. Further, you began your response with “Not wanting to run personal attacks but…” It was a personal attack. Are you incapable of transcending that kind of behavior?

Posted by: Bruce | Feb 12 2020 18:10 utc | 258

Jen @245
You wrote: “It would not surprise me if Falun Gong turn out to be the ones who started this narrative in the first place.”
I am very familiar with Falun Gong, your point is well taken, they have the resources to plant disinformation in fairly well established media, they have a motive to do so, and it would not surprise me either.

Posted by: Bruce | Feb 12 2020 18:13 utc | 259

A User @243
My comments @242 were addressed to Parisian Guy. He essentially complained the Taiwan Times is politically inapposite to China and therefore likely to publish disinformation. My point was that while this is important to consider, the people who say otherwise also have certain biases, and that as an anonymous poster on the Internet, he does not merit MORE credibility than the Taiwan Times. That three additional sources have also posted the story indicates at least three other journalists felt it is worth considering – implying they also disagree with Parisian Guy’s position that the report should be dismissed out of hand without further consideration simply because it came from the Taiwan Times. The article is an additional piece of data, like the rest of the data. The possibility of an SO2 plume from cremation of bodies not included in the official count has absolutely nothing to do with the potential impact on the economy of the coronavirus. Your post does not address mine. It is also chock a block with argumentum ad hominem and inappropriate language. My apologies if I have insulted your massive intellect.

Posted by: Bruce | Feb 12 2020 18:15 utc | 260

A User @243
You wrote:
"This 'too many cremations' scenario has to be the lamest see What causes sulfur dioxide emissions? and you'll see cremation doesn't feature anywhere."
Your reference states:
"What causes sulfur dioxide emissions?
Sulfur dioxide. Sulfur dioxide (SO2) is a gas primarily emitted from fossil fuel combustion at power plants and other industrial facilities, as well as fuel combustion in mobile sources such as locomotives, ships, and other equipment."
That's from https://answersdrive.com/what-causes-sulfur-dioxide-emissions-7749026
With all due respect, I suggest your research efforts might have been a bit more exhaustive. Have a look at a page created by people who burn bodies for a living.
https://www.calgarymemorial.com/effect-of-cremation-on-environment.html
Sulfur dioxide is one of the gases emitted at cremation. While your post is inaccurate, it is important to note that we don't have sufficient information to determine if it would be enough in theory to show up on a monitor, and the behavior of gases in the atmosphere is highly unpredictable.

Posted by: Bruce | Feb 12 2020 18:43 utc | 261

@Piotr Berman #240
Even disregarding the highly unlikely possibility that Polish are sufficiently genetically different than their neighbors, I cringe anytime I see sometime like "relative unaffected". What does this mean?

It means that the epidemic was not recorded in Polish history, so it could not be a major event. Mind you, lesser epidemics were not rare at all, so Black Death did not raise above that background, and the reign of Casimir The Great, 1340-1370, was characterized by growth of population in general and cities in particular. Nothing like voluminous data on coal production and consumption in Hebei province that I posted.

Concerning the trade through Gdansk/Danzig, the port of the mouth of Vistula that has most of Poland in its basin, Teuton Order was granted a country by the Prince of Mazovia to organize defense against pagan Prussians. That happened ca. 1230. But they did not merely conquer Prussians,, but also grabbed another country that became a bone of contention for two centuries, took over the Pommeranian principality of Gdansk and tried to expand more. Moreover, grain export does not happen just because peasants have enough to eat, they may gain more free time, or use land for flax to make linen, a certain grass to make red die, raise cattle for export "on the hoof" (I recall reading about all of that). History books are skimpy on economics and more comprehensive on conflicts. From the history of wars in the following century, Gdansk Pommerania and Prussia became grain exporters and the cities did prefer larger trade, however the knights were more inclined for conflicts with infidels. Ultimately, cities led by Gdansk rebelled against the Order but that happened 100 years after Black Death.

After Poland got Gdansk there were continuous changes in the feudal system that allowed the nobles to extract more grain from the peasants, and one the other end, Baltic trade had increasing importance for the Netherlands and England. So my thinking is that before that the export was much smaller and frequently interrupted by quarrels between states. Rather than export, what makes your case is that given the level of agricultural techniques, Poland was still underpopulated and had no problem finding enough land to increase food production for the growing population, while western Europe had more precarious food balance. Again, just on the level of anecdotes, notes about the history of dishes like borsch etc., episodes of crop failure affect "underpopulated" areas less because of the option of eating wild plants (borsch was one of them), getting animal foods etc. So fewer peasants died of hunger at times of bad crops.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Feb 12 2020 18:48 utc | 262

Vk @247; Piotr Berman @253; @all

First, a reminder of this particular language from the posting from Taiwan Times:
“Intelewave listed a few possible explanations for this increase in emissions, with the first being a power plant. However, none of China's numerous other power plants were seen emitting such large numbers that day.”
Second, Piotr Berman’s conjecture:
“One can also conjecture big impact of the epidemic on electricity consumption. Some industries would slow down and consume less. But heating homes would increase. Additionally, people could be advised to keep warmer than notoriously low levels that Chinese (and even Japanese, something cultural) usually maintain in winter.
I repeat those points because too many people ignore numbers when we assess information from the internet. The discussion usually analyzes the potential bias of sources, which is surely a valid consideration, but inherently inconclusive. But there is a general pattern that helps: truth is typically more consistent and more complete than lies or mistakes. In this case, we have statistics that show that reports cited by Bruce had absurdly wrong interpretations.”
The consumption of electricity in the major cities affected by the coronavirus outbreak has plummeted. That is not a secret. Everyone was too busy sniping other people’s comments here to do their own research. Some have conjectured there might have been a change in coal supply to a higher sulfur composition, or “dirtier” coal, and it is a good point. I have been responsible for negotiating contracts for a remarkable number of power plants, and emissions are a specific criterion associated with substantial penalties for failure to meet them. Content of emissions can be somewhat unpredictable. Where they go and how they change in the atmosphere is the very reason (“excuse”) the US Environmental Protection Agency never regulated sulfur and nitrogen emissions regardless of their impact on acid rain. The location and behavior of particles in a plume is incredibly unpredictable. To see a spike of sulfur dioxide is meaningful, but unfortunately that claim is given without much context, apart from an assertion it was not where a power plant exists. The inadequacy of the data presented certainly raises questions, but that is also a virtual hallmark of journalism – it is invariably skinny on the facts.
But folks…we have to work with what we have. It is a data point. There aren’t many, and everyone here knows government disinformation to suit political agenda is a by-product of civilization.

Posted by: Bruce | Feb 12 2020 18:52 utc | 263

@Bruce 259
You wrote that in response to my challenge which stated: “You previously complained about unverifiable claims made by various media sources, but what you offered were nothing more than a series of irrelevant links. Not one of your links addressed the comments you implied they refuted. You were blowing smoke.”
I strongly recommend that you have a little rest.

1)
I did not "offered a series of irrelevant links". I only gave the nullschool link. You probably were confusing with someone else or with another time.

2)
For that reason I was not "responding to your challenge. Not only I was not concerned, but you didn't expressed it. You have been dreaming all that time.

3)
Since I explicitly spoke about the probing value of Voice of America and the two other media which parroted Taiwan News, my answer was obviously about your comment which referred to these media. Otherwise said: my comment 255 answered your comment 242

4)
Furthermore, since you are continuing to peddle the same confused criticism about myself in your comments, I have to answer it for once:
A) my credibility doesn't compare to Taiwan News. I don't have a personal history of China bashing,
B) I made no claim of personal credibility about the weather data
C) I implicitly claimed that nullschool is credible, not because I said so, but because everyone could see that it's some kind of non commercial website feed by some academics and the best governmental weather forecast department. Did you understand that you could not get more credible data? Furthermore everybody can verify by its own eyes what is actually displayed (the "earth" button which is located at the bottom of the right side will open the parameters control panel).

In conclusion, if you did not previously understand the above C paragraph, then you would have compared credibility of Taiwan News and nullschool.
But in any case, there was no logical reason to attack my personal credibility. The probable motive of your behavior is that it'your way to defend your own credibility and/or your pride.

Posted by: Parisian Guy | Feb 12 2020 20:35 utc | 264

Parisian Guy @265
You wrote:
“B) I made no claim of personal credibility about the weather data
C) I implicitly claimed that nullschool is credible, not because I said so, but because everyone could see that it's some kind of non commercial website feed by some academics and the best governmental weather forecast department. Did you understand that you could not get more credible data? Furthermore everybody can verify by its own eyes what is actually displayed (the "earth" button which is located at the bottom of the right side will open the parameters control panel).
In conclusion, if you did not previously understand the above C paragraph, then you would have compared credibility of Taiwan News and nullschool.”

You have misrepresented what you wrote at 238. Let’s look at what you wrote more carefully:

Furthermore I remember having given to you a link about the importance of checkable claims.
Therefore, without any remorse for giving you the ridicule that you deserve, here is the link to a site similar to windy.com, but he keeps some archive of past days: there was nothing special in SO2 rates around Wuhan that 8th of February
https://earth.nullschool.net/fr/#2020/02/07/2300Z/chem/surface/level/overlay=so2smass/orthographic=-247.57,30.01,1203
Posted by: Parisian Guy | Feb 12 2020 1:35 utc | 238

Again, specifically: “there was nothing special in SO2 rates around Wuhan that 8th of February.” Do you care to retract what you wrote @265 and apologize, or do you prefer to remain on record as a vulgar prevaricator?

Posted by: Bruce | Feb 12 2020 21:30 utc | 265

Asymptomatic cases that have been tested positive will now be included in official updates.

Epidemic Situation of New Crown Pneumonia in Hubei Province on February 12, 2020: (machine translated, my emphasis)

With the deepening of understanding of new coronavirus pneumonia and the accumulation of experience in diagnosis and treatment, in view of the characteristics of the epidemic in Hubei Province, the General Office of the National Health and Health Commission and the Office of the State Administration of Traditional Chinese Medicine issued the "Diagnosis and Treatment Plan for New Coronavirus Infected Pneumonia (Trial (Version) "adds" clinical diagnosis "to the case diagnosis classification in Hubei Province, so that patients can receive standardized treatment according to confirmed cases as early as possible to further improve the success rate of treatment. According to the plan, Hubei Province has recently conducted investigations on suspected cases and revised the diagnosis results, and newly diagnosed patients were diagnosed according to the new diagnosis classification. In order to be consistent with the classification of case diagnosis issued by other provinces across the country, starting today, Hubei Province will include the number of clinically diagnosed cases into the number of confirmed cases for publication.

At 02:00 and 24:00 on February 12, 2020, Hubei Province newly added 14,840 new cases of pneumonia (including 13332 clinically diagnosed cases), of which: 13436 in Wuhan, 37 in Huangshi, 26 in Shiyan, and 13 in Xiangyang Cases, 26 in Yichang, 321 in Jingzhou, 231 in Jingmen, 204 in Ezhou, 123 in Xiaogan, 264 in Huanggang, 9 in Xianning, 31 in Suizhou, 26 in Enshi, 20 in Xiantao There were 69 cases in Tianmen City and 4 cases in Qianjiang City. There were 242 new deaths (including 135 clinically diagnosed cases) in the province, of which: 216 in Wuhan, 3 in Huangshi, 1 in Xiangyang, 3 in Yichang, 2 in Jingzhou, 2 in Ezhou, and Xiaogan There were 4 cases in Huangshi City, 4 cases in Huanggang City, 1 case in Xianning City, 2 cases in Suizhou City, 1 case in Enshi Prefecture, and 3 cases in Xiantao City. There were 802 new hospital discharges (including 423 clinically diagnosed cases), including: 538 in Wuhan, 17 in Huangshi, 11 in Shiyan, 6 in Xiangyang, 10 in Yichang, 22 in Jingzhou, and 11 in Jingmen 23 in Ezhou, 28 in Xiaogan, 89 in Huanggang, 19 in Xianning, 11 in Suizhou, 10 in Enshi, 5 in Xiantao, 1 in Tianmen, and 1 in Shennongjia Forest District.

As of 24:00 on February 12, 2020, Hubei Province has reported a total of 48206 cases of new coronary pneumonia (including 13332 clinically diagnosed cases), of which: 32994 cases in Wuhan (including 12364 clinically diagnosed cases) and 911 in Huangshi (including clinical 12 cases were diagnosed), 562 cases in Shiyan City (including 3 clinically diagnosed cases), 1101 cases in Xiangyang City, 810 cases in Yichang City, 1431 cases in Jingzhou City (including 287 clinical diagnosis cases), and 927 cases in Jingmen City (including clinical diagnosis) 202 cases), 1065 cases in Ezhou City (including 155 clinically diagnosed cases), 2874 cases in Xiaogan City (including 35 clinically diagnosed cases), 2662 cases in Huanggang City (including 221 clinically diagnosed cases), and 534 cases in Xianning City (including 6 clinically diagnosed cases), 1160 in Suizhou, 229 in Enshi (including 19 clinically diagnosed cases), 480 in Xiantao City (including 2 clinically diagnosed cases), and 362 in Tianmen City (including 26 clinically diagnosed cases) There were 94 cases in Qianjiang City and 10 cases in Shennongjia Forest District.

A total of 3441 patients were discharged from the hospital. The province has a cumulative total of 1,310 cases, including 1036 cases in Wuhan (including 134 cases of clinically diagnosed cases), 9 cases in Huangshi City, 1 case in Shiyan City, 13 cases in Xiangyang City, 11 cases in Yichang City, and 23 cases in Jingzhou City. There were 24 cases in Jingmen City, 30 cases in Ezhou City, 49 cases in Xiaogan City, 58 cases in Huanggang City, 7 cases in Xianning City, 14 cases in Suizhou City, 4 cases in Enshi Prefecture (including 1 case of clinically diagnosed deaths), and 16 cases in Xiantao City. There were 10 cases in Tianmen City and 5 cases in Qianjiang City.

At present, 33,693 patients are still being treated in the hospital, of which 5647 are critically ill and 1437 are critically ill. They are all receiving isolation treatment at designated medical institutions. There were 9028 suspected cases, 3317 were excluded that day, and 6,126 were concentrated and isolated. A total of 158,377 close contacts were tracked, and 77,308 people were still under medical observation.

Posted by: Vasco da Gama | Feb 13 2020 1:55 utc | 266

@Bruce

You definitely needs a lot of rest. You are not even able to tell what your objection is, only to hurl insults.

The reality is that everybody has lazerized by it's own way your smoking SO2 claim. Then you went in long digression to cauterize your bruished ego, which interested nobody.

For myself I consider that, unless you really needs more spanking, for which I would oblige, the controversy was closed when you went dry on the point 1), 2) and 3) of my comment 255. If my fourth and last point made you mad I can't help but to again strongly suggest you get a lot of rest.

Posted by: Parisian Guy | Feb 13 2020 3:39 utc | 267

Parisian Guy @268
Since you have gone out of your way to DOX me on this forum, after being caught blowing smoke and then lying unabashedly while hurling the kind of insults normally only seen from teenagers, it is obvious that is most likely what you are. DOXing me is nothing more than legally actionable abuse, unless it is to make a point - so go ahead and make it. If the point is you are more credentialed than I am, put your own name and credentials up on this board. I not only have nothing to hide, my resume only serves to support what I have posted. Incidentally, by now everyone has noticed the data is also beginning to support the possibility the Chinese data is suspect, which is the original point.
At any rate, put your own name up here or hide under your mother's petticoat. I cannot respond to your last point otherwise as you have failed to make one.
I trust the other forum participants, and the moderator, will handle a DOXer in accordance with the vehemence I observed regarding the alleged ZeroHedge transgression.

Posted by: Bruce | Feb 13 2020 3:56 utc | 268

@Piotr Berman

Many thanks for the time you spent for answering my doubts with such a long description. It is both erudite and practically informative.
It's the kind of exchange which disappeared from the net, but on this venue. For which I take the opportunity to also thanks b who makes it possible.

About economics in historical science, you're right. It's a pity since this kind of knowledge is useful to understand the current evolution. I guess you probably already knows it, but in case you don't, I strongly (and chauvinistically) recommend the work of the French "Ecole des Annales" especially the masterpiece of Braudel https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fernand_Braudel#Capitalism which was revealing for myself.

Posted by: Parisian Guy | Feb 13 2020 4:06 utc | 269

@Bruce
Nobody doxed you. It seems you put your name by accident in the comment form of 266 . That's all, and it demonstrates furthermore that you need to rest.

Posted by: Parisian Guy | Feb 13 2020 4:20 utc | 270

@parisian guy
I will take your word on that, unless and until I am advised otherwise, by implication due to your absence. That does not in any way absolve you of having blown smoke, or of lying unabashedly, which you swiftly proved for my convenience. No need to DOX yourself, your posts indicate your intellect and experience, and the time of day in Paris suggests your current state of employment.

Meanwhile:
Foxconn says recent Reuters reports on factory resumption in China were not factual
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-foxconn/foxconn-says-recent-reuters-reports-on-factory-resumption-in-china-were-not-factual-idUSKBN20704F
I don't need to explain why this is among the most concerning evidence the situation is worse than we are advised.

Additionally:
Following the removal of the most senior health officials in Wuhan yesterday, Chinese State Media has just reported that Chen Wei, China's chief biochemical weapon defense expert, is now to be stationed in Wuhan to lead the efforts to overcome the deadly, pneumonia-like pathogen.
According to the PLA Daily report, Chen Wei holds the rank of major general, and along with reports that Chinese troops have started to "assist", it strongly suggests that the PLA has taken control of the situation.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/sudden-militarization-wuhans-p4-lab-raises-new-questions-about-origin-deadly-covid-19

Posted by: Bruce | Feb 13 2020 4:47 utc | 271

Bruce seem to believe he knows it all and must be right. He should take a rest and watch two vids below....

Nathan Rich comments on "The TRUTH of the Wuhan Coronavirus Doctor's Death"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b-Fy80yHYQo

...and another one Amy "Blondie", an Ozzie speak fluent Putonghua. I'm better (slang not Beijing or Taiwan mandarin) and 4 dialects. Like most foreign Amy love China. Chinese are basically very friendly and kind if you treat then with respect and not superior "Gweilo"

Blondie in China

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCISrVZmDM4x-Rq9mmNUw7Zw

Posted by: JC | Feb 13 2020 5:18 utc | 272

OK now I'm pissed, I don't give a flying fuck about what bruce the goose says about me, since A) sticks n shit & B) after trying to lay that cremations nonsense which if it were true that the alleged 'spike' in SO2 emission had been caused by cremations it would have taken many millions of burnt bodies to cause it, which in turn raises the question of how, the nazis went all industrial designing and building crematoria over a period of years, yet they only managed to burn a million or two, 'n that took over a year, the rest were dropped in mass graves, I pointed out brucie had dissed all of us by imagining we were moronic enough to believe that tossage, so anything further is water off a duck's back, but now the bloke puts his full name to a post then alleges some innocent who used facts to carry his argument had doxxed brucie-woosie. When the truth of the situation is pointed out, instead of apologising to the chap he had falsely accused, bruce the dingbat refuses to concede what is plain for anyone to see. That is an indication of both the ridiculousness of his thinking and the worthlessness of engaging with such a drongo.

Is big bad bruce insane to the point of psychosis, or merely drunk? I dunno but I do wish he would hop on his bike & fuck off - at least until he can maintain a semblance of rationality.

Posted by: A User | Feb 13 2020 5:25 utc | 273

And I never did get to the reason I'm pissed, it's because bruce the lying amerikan goose tried to diss another poster here at for not being at work 'at that hour'.
Maybe the guy has a corner office and can post whenever he wants, maybe he works nights, has a day off or any one of a thousand other reasons he could post at that time.
One thing is for sure he doesn't try to defend a screwed up capitalist society that judges human beings on account of their employment status.
bruce neatly if accidentally sums what is really disgusting about the type of human who tries to attack China for no reason other than China plays the capitalist game an order of magnitude better than amerika ever could - that's called envy and it is ugly as. Hence the need to rely on lies so facile they can't withstand cursory scrutiny.

Posted by: A User | Feb 13 2020 5:42 utc | 274

Panic mode is getting a bit beyond a joke. Missus ticker isnt too good and she had some chest pain last night. I ring OOO to get the ambulance and first thing the clown on the other end asks is 'has she been to China recently'.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 13 2020 8:02 utc | 275

Peter AU1 | Feb 13 2020 8:02 utc | 276

That would be horrible to go thru but I'n willing to bet that "Scotty from marketing" sent out am instruction that 'has he/she been to China recently?' be at the top of every first responder's spiel not because the guvmint cares one way or the other about what happens to your wife, but because he needs to cover his arse should too many humans die as a result of his government's negligence.
I hope your wife is feeling better, those of us who have dicky tickers know how awful it feels to be determined by a doctor, that you are so close to the edge. It can get really scary even when we hang on in the knowledge "I've got a coupla more decades yet." My pharmacist is always bailing me up to tell ne I need to do this or that, I respect what she says but I also know a life not lived isn't worth living, as I'm sure you do Pete, so IMO yer missus needs to hear she is doing fine and the fools at the end of an emergency call are the actual dingbats trying to cover their arses by offering every anodyne panacea they can remember.

Please say hello & best wishes to your wife/partner from us all at MoA.

Posted by: A User | Feb 13 2020 9:08 utc | 276

@Bruce

If we really burning tens of thousands bodies daily, as claimed by Taiwan site, VOA, Wapo, NYT, fox, BBC, Falungong Epoch, Guo Wen Gui,... after 30days it should reach 500,000 deaths out of 11M Wuhan population. That's about 4% gone in a mth. At a death rate of 4%, it means all 12M should be infected & hospitalized.

Yet there isn't any public disorder is very astonishing. May be like a US website said, he guaranteed that Wuhan & whole China has been cutoff completely. All tonnes of mssg and chatting between 1400M Chinese are A.I. response.

If indeed this way, China A.I. is truly scary to able handle 1400M fake response real time. They even know precisely what my China friends & me supposed to know & discuss.

Posted by: TTdr | Feb 13 2020 11:19 utc | 277

A question has been asked as to whether this disease is race-specific?

2019-nCov binds to the host via ACE-II receptors, using the HIV sequence which was artificially inserted into the virus so as to increase it's rate of infection; basically the R-naught value. What is the R-naught? This depends primarily upon the number of ACE-II receptors that person ---that ethnicity, has.

Orientals and Mongoloids have the highest number of these receptors, Caucasians about 55-60% of the numbers the former have, and those of Arab descent are in the low single digits; infections in the UAE are Chinese workers who visited family in China.

Thus, the valid argument this could have been a race specific bio-weapon. As to who and how it was released, I can only speculate. Patient zero was diagnosed 12/1/2019, so it is safe to say he/she contracted the disease early November, infecting others. To trace this requires forensic epidemiologist as well as very thorough investigative work.

For the people in China, depending on official stats versus reality, R-O has been defined as anywhere from 2.5 to 5.47. In other words, most definitely not contained. China is doing all it can to limit the rate of infection, but in my opinion, they did too little too late. This cannot be contained, in China or the world.

Again, the R-0 will be different in different ethnicities, based on the ACE-II receptors, immune response, underlying conditions, etc.

Now as to mortality rates.

China, whether by design or by accident, has shown us the fatality rate. They stated 82% are mild and recover, which leaves 18% who are either serious or critical. They stated 6% of serious recover (meaning 94% of these die), and 1% of critical cases recover (meaning 99% die).

Say 100 people are infected, 82 are mild of which 100% recover, say 12 are serious of which 96% die, and 6 are critical of which 99% die. Ergo, 17.22 people die, meaning the Case Fatality Rate is ~17%.
In the accidentally released TenCent reports, the CFR was 15.96%

Outside researchers initially projected a CFR of 10-20%, and stats have proven to be 16-17%. Is this number also race-specific? Only time will tell, though virologists might have a better handle on this.

Japan has stated the incubation period whereas the infected person is asymptomatic and infectious in as high as 24 days. In practice, taking one's temperature at say an airport is of very little value in terms of containment.

If infected, it will generally take at least 24 hours before you are contagious, as the host needs to build a viral load. Taking a throat swab is also of little use, as the disease (in the early stages) will be in the lower lungs. A rectal swab is more useful, as is a Computed Axial Tomography of the chest.
China has been taking throat swabs then saying the person is not infected; thus the resulting huge numbers of false negatives.

Different media have claimed people cannot be contagious if asymptomatic. Nonsense.
Once the viral load is built sufficiently, the person is contagious, and only when this load is substantially higher will symptoms be exhibited.

China is a culture I know very little about, but it has always seemed to me their most important criteria is saving face; their integrity. If the people return to work, the virus will infect the entire nation and they lose face and their economy crashes, but if the true numbers are released, their economy crashes as they lose all credibility. It seems they are faced with a no-win situation.

Some have stated this is a good thing as supposedly China is our enemy. Nonsense.
The global economy is fragile, and very closely tied to that of China. Approximately half of all derivatives are held by China, so if their economy crashes, so does ours. Again, economists know more of this subject than I.

Posted by: DrM | Feb 13 2020 16:13 utc | 278

@ DrM | Feb 13 2020 16:13 utc | 279

Thank you for the detailed explanation of the "race-specific" matter.

Posted by: AntiSpin | Feb 13 2020 16:50 utc | 279

Here's some actual information rather than the propaganda etc. we all see so much of here and elsewhere. Both of these WHO press briefing audio files are highly recommended.

WHO press briefing for the 12th of February mp3 51,9 MB in size, about 54 minutes long, runs over time as the WHO Director-General (sometimes referred to as "D-G") gently and softly crushes a US/CIA propaganda allegation against China and the WHO.

The term "free pratique" is nautical and concerns itself with the right to access port as long as one follows certain rules including but not limited to declaring oneself disease free and not having had a death aboard.

WHO press briefing for the 13th of February mp3 30.8 MB in size, about 32 minutes long.

WHO press briefings and transcripts page where there are more previous press briefings available.

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Feb 13 2020 20:16 utc | 280

Did you that this virus DOSE NOT fit the definition of epidemic? An epidemic is the rapid spread of infectious disease to a large number of people in a given population within a short period of time, usually two weeks or less. For example, in meningococcal infections, an attack rate in excess of 15 cases per 100,000 people for two consecutive weeks is considered an epidemic. This is not that, and last report outbreaks are on the decline.

Posted by: rob pollock | Mar 5 2020 0:50 utc | 281