Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
February 08, 2020

The Epidemic Recedes - Number Of New Coronavirus Cases In Decline

The novel Coronavirus (nCoV19) epidemic is a receding danger but its effects will stay with us for some time. Here is an update on the current situation.

Caixin reports (machine translation):

In general, with the increase in isolation and treatment work, the number of new suspected cases nationwide has decreased, and the number of new confirmed cases outside Hubei has fallen for 4 consecutive days. The situation of the new coronavirus epidemic situation may have improved. On the 7th, the first confirmed case appeared in only one city, and the number of newly cured cases exceeded the number of new deaths for 9 consecutive days, indicating that the epidemic was under control.

The graphic below shows the newly suspected cases per day (yellow) and the number of newly confirmed cases per day (red).


Source: Dxy - bigger

Newly suspected cases get tested and it takes about a day until they are 'converted' to confirmed cases or removed from the count. It makes therefore sense to combine those numbers and to show a total of new cases per day.

Graphic updated with February 8 data

Data source: National Health Commission of China
bigger

The new cases per day number in China stabilized at around 8,000 per day and is now sinking.

On February 7 the total number of confirmed cases in China during the nCov19 epidemic was at 34,546. 2,050 persons have recovered and have been discharged from hospitals. 722 people have died so far. That leaves 31,774 current confirmed infected persons of which 6,101 are in serious condition. There are 27,657 suspected cases for a current total of some 60,000 suspected and confirmed cases.

The Chinese authorities go to great length to find those who had contact with persons who have been infected. 345,498 people have been identified as having had close contact with infected patients. 189,660 of them are now under medical observation.

The epidemic is still a local Chinese affair. Of 34,956 global cases 34,664 are in China.

Of the 32.000 current confirmed cases 25.000 are in Hubei province. The provincial capital Wuhan alone has 13,600 cases.

Health services and personal in Wuhan were extremely stressed (recommended) during January. The death rate there (blue) topped at 5% of the cases before it came down below 3%. The death rate of nCoV19 cases in all of China (yellow) is now about 2%. The rest-of-the-globe rate (grey), with probably too few total cases to be meaningful, is at 0.17%.


Source: Dxy - bigger

A number of anti-virus medications are now being tested on the current cases. Some combinations seem to help which will further lower the death rate.

Wuhan city is finally getting all the help that is possible. Medical personnel from the army has been ordered into the city. Patients there get classified in different categories and are put into different hospitals:

A total of 1,600 beds in Leishenshan (Thunder God Mountain) Hospital will be delivered on Feb 8, said Hu Yabo, deputy mayor of Wuhan at a press conference on Feb 7.

The city already has 8,895 beds in 28 designated hospitals for patients infected with the novel coronavirus, and 1,000 beds in Huoshenshan Hospital, which are being used for severe and critically ill patients.

There are 4,250 beds for patients with mild symptoms in three public-facility-turned temporary hospitals in the city, which will increase by 5,400 beds in the future.

There will soon be 21,000 beds capacity for the currently 13,600 confirmed cases. Only some 15% of those will become severe.

The World Health Organization (WHO) said that 88% of those who died were over 60 years old. 76% of the dead were men and 70% of the dead had underlying diseases. They were most likely heavy smokers.

Few children get infected or, if they do, only show mild symptoms:

“The median age of patients is between 49 and 56 years,” according to a report published on Wednesday in JAMA. “Cases in children have been rare.”

So why aren’t more children getting sick?

“My strong, educated guess is that younger people are getting infected, but they get the relatively milder disease,” said Dr. Malik Peiris, chief of virology at the University of Hong Kong, who has developed a diagnostic test for the new coronavirus.

It is still unclear if the virus can be spread by a person before that person shows symptoms. A German study which said so has been retracted and new Japanese study which says so seems dubious and is unverified.

During the time of the Lunar New Year festivities some 400 million people in China travel to see their family. Many factories shut down for two or three weeks. While this years traveling increased the geographic spreading of the epidemic, the closing down of factories probably decreased the number of contacts people might otherwise have had.

China's economy is severely effected by the epidemic.

After the Lunar New Year on January 25 property sales stayed at zero instead of increasing towards their normal height.


Source: Capital Economics - bigger

Road congestion is at a record low.


Source: Capital Economics - bigger

The Chinese authorities will soon have to balance public safety with the necessity of economic activities. They are likely to stay cautious. They will want to make sure that the epidemic is under total control before allowing a return to normal life.

Further shutdowns of factories and curfews will interrupt supply chains and will affect the global economy. This will likely speed up the  'decoupling' from China which the U.S. under Trump promotes.

---
Previous Moon of Alabama pieces on the novel cornavirus.

Feb 1 2020 - Novel Coronavirus Defies Conspiracy Theories As Data Shows Its Coming Decline
Jan 25 2020 - The Coronavirus - No Need To Panic

Posted by b on February 8, 2020 at 17:18 UTC | Permalink

Comments
« previous page | next page »

When does the slander of me personally on this board escalate?
Seriously, get a f@cking grip.

Posted by: dorje | Feb 9 2020 0:36 utc | 64

no dorje... your comments have been noted, not just on this thread, but on others as well... referring to tulsi gabbard as a transgender person was one of the points that tipped it for me... you are fucking nuts, but it is nothing personal and you can have all the opinions you want too.. welcome to moa.. however, don't expect to get a free ride with all your various opinions..

Posted by: james | Feb 9 2020 4:12 utc | 101

@b, jen and a few others.. thanks for your earlier comments on this thread..

@ 95 daniel... we see it much the same way... it's a bit insane, but it is the world we have at the moment.. cheers...

Posted by: james | Feb 9 2020 4:15 utc | 102

I live and work in the south of Viet Nam. Schools and language centres here closed for an extra week after the Tet holiday to combat the spread of the virus. The closure looks set to carry on for at least another week.

Posted by: adamski | Feb 9 2020 4:17 utc | 103

Dorje @ 64:

The Epoch Times is run by Falun Gong, the religious cult whose messianic founder Li Hongzhi lives in New York state and believes he can levitate and become invisible just by thinking so. Falun Gong receives funding from the US government and US government agencies. It has a very anti-Chinese bias.

Be careful also of New Tang Dynasty TV news because that network is also owned by Falun Gong. The organisation is the source of nearly all current news about organ trafficking in China so I would not be surprised if Falun Gong is also pushing a narrative of crematoria working day and night in Wuhan.

Posted by: Jen | Feb 9 2020 4:21 utc | 104

About the India vs China thing: well, of course. China is much more developed than India, so no wonder China suffers more from epidemics (much faster transit of people). India suffers more from poverty diseases - hence its lower life expectancy.

@ all

I'm not discussing the technical aspects of this epidemic. I'm not a virologist or an infectologist, so I won't talk about things that I don't understand.

But History is my expertise, and I know how to interpret sources. So far, no source posted here has come close to be convincing in relation to the official numbers. Of course that every number released now are not definitive - but the same logic applies to the apocalyptics.

Those videos being posted are not reliable sources for one simple reason: the people who filmed them have never seem a large scale quarantine before in their lives - how can they be so sure the government is being "authoritarian" or not? They also probably never saw so much dead bodies before - how can they be so sure the number of dead is of this or that scale? A video of a van with five bodies is far from conclusive in this regard.

Either way, one thing is already clear: the West is delighting itself with China's misery, and is trying to extract the most soft power benefits from it it can.

Posted by: vk | Feb 9 2020 4:26 utc | 105

What we know about pandemics is largely retrospective. The CCP wants to eliminate independent/citizen reportage and send in cadres of party "journalists" to control the story. The happy ending is known in advance and we can see right now the war is being won! Numbers are in decline! Hip hip hurray!

At this moment, b's story is fiction. He's telling the story he wants to hear and it is his opinion which he has in common with the CCP. We all have our opinions, some more persuasive than others. Indeterminacy is a very uncomfortable state of mind. We want certainty and we prefer a future with a happy face! At this moment no one knows the outcome of this "novel" corona virus event because it is novel.

So, we wait and see and we question the nature of this historic event to better inform our opinions. Is it a bioweapon? B doesn't consider this a legitimate inquiry. This is a conspiracy theory, in his opinion, even though the White House is asking this same question and he is fond of the White House.

The unprecedented Chinese response to this virus should give us pause to consider that it is not a flash in the pan, as it were, and will not begin to fade away after a mere month on the world stage. The CCP does not enforce draconian quarantine measures on more than 50 million people, risking serious damage to the Chinese economy and the threat of civil unrest, unless the risk posed by the virus is very great indeed!

The wisest attitude to this event is to wait and see what it really is and not impose our own wishful thinking. In another few weeks we will be in a better position to know the character of 2019nCoV. Whether it develops as a global disaster or not, our response right now should be preparation for the next pandemic that will inevitably emerge naturally or from the world's bioweapons labs. We are not prepared. World mass societies wait passively for their own destruction. We should use this moment to cultivate self-awareness.

Putting a happy face on this virus doesn't help to do that. Denial of possible bioweapon origin doesn't do that.

Posted by: jadan | Feb 9 2020 4:35 utc | 106

vk | Feb 9 2020 4:26 utc | 102
Either way, one thing is already clear: the West is delighting itself with China's misery, and is trying to extract the most soft power benefits from it it can.

Agree. The U.S. never lets a good tragedy go to waste...

Posted by: V | Feb 9 2020 4:38 utc | 107

@81
"Lots of theories going around, the most likely one is that the virus escaped from the Wuhan lab."

Definitely not. The Wuhan lab theory is always peddled by copying/pasting from media whose dishonesty is otherwise obvious.
What is the most likely is the running of disinformation campaign against China which is waged by the real culprit.
Look at the lab which did that research: https://www.nature.com/articles/nm.3985
Why was dr. Xiangguo Qiu suddenly expelled from the Winnipeg NML virus lab? No charge has been made. Did she discovered something? How is it that her previous director in that lab just died unexpectedly (dr. Frank Plummer)?
Cui bono?

Posted by: Parisian Guy | Feb 9 2020 4:39 utc | 108

@ james 98

It's not wise to assume you are conversing with flesh and blood on any blog. In 2020 AI is more prevalent than you might dare think.

Posted by: 07564111 | Feb 9 2020 4:44 utc | 109

@ 107.. thanks.. good point and worth remembering..

Posted by: james | Feb 9 2020 4:56 utc | 110

It appears the Pentagon have an accounting problem in the order of $35 TRILLION!!! ROFL

Congratulations. The current competition for the most obviously absurd conspiracy theory is closed. You are the winner.

This sum equals 50 years of Pentagon budget, at the current rate. If taking into account inflation, well, then we must consider every dollar of Pentagon was lost... since... Christopher Columbus? Isn't it?

Posted by: Parisian Guy | Feb 9 2020 5:19 utc | 111

This article reminds of of a story told to me by a Palestinian. His grandfather was listening to Syrian radio during the 6 day war. They proclaimed that Syrian tanks were overrunning what is now the West Bank. He went out to greet the Syrian tanks in the streets and almost got his ass shot off by the Israelis.

The Syrians proclaimed they were winning the war and even after they lost they won if you follow their logic.

Posted by: dltravers | Feb 9 2020 5:22 utc | 112

@ Posted by: Parisian Guy | Feb 9 2020 4:39 utc | 106 who wrote
"
Why was dr. Xiangguo Qiu suddenly expelled from the Winnipeg NML virus lab? No charge has been made. Did she discovered something? How is it that her previous director in that lab just died unexpectedly (dr. Frank Plummer)?
Cui bono?
"

Thanks for that. I saw the story about Dr. Frank Plummer keeling over after dinner and dead by the time they got him to hospital.
Cui bono?
A. - Empire

One of the issues is that this attack (my assumption) is not something that China/Russia would return "inkind".

We are in a civilization war and one side is playing dirty.....but what did you expect of perverts that used nukes before?

It will be interesting to see if the virus gets a foothold in another country and how that plays out in relation to China....other than being way 2nd in the learning curve.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Feb 9 2020 5:49 utc | 113

b, thanks for the update.

Just want to make one quick note: Caixin is a pro-America news outlet.

Its founder, ex editor-in-chief and publisher, Hu Shuli has been using her influence as key opinion leader to build up a powerful platform to actively promote pro-America/Western agenda and well recognised for that.

For example, she was selected as one of

- The FP Top 100 Global Thinkers for both 2009 and 2010.

- TIME's 100 Most Influential Leaders of 2011

- 2017 Forbes World Top 50 Leaders

She is a board member of International Crisis Group.

Posted by: lulu | Feb 9 2020 5:56 utc | 114

Posted by: Parisian Guy | Feb 9 2020 4:39 utc | 106

I disagree with your assertions. What do you mean "Definitely not". You do not have any more of a real clue than anyone on here. There seem to be a lot of people on here accusing others of China bashing. I don't see that is what is happening at all. In fact I think this aspect has been very muted to date. It is apparent that some Chinese folk appearing on Twitter and Youtube are very unfond of the Chinese Communist Party and blame them for the tardy response including punishing the eight doctors who went public about their concerns at the end of December.

Posted by: Anon2 | Feb 9 2020 6:22 utc | 115

This article suggests a 17% mortality rate. Take a look at the maths, based on the recovery rates of seriouly ill patients.

https://www.naturalnews.com/2020-02-08-do-the-math-china-press-conference-admits-coronavirus-mortality-17-percent.html

Posted by: Anon2 | Feb 9 2020 6:26 utc | 116

Just to straighten a few facts about the "whistleblower" Li Wenliang, who just passed away yesterday due to nCOV infection, heavily promoted by MSM and on social media.

No, Dr. Li Wenliang was NOT arrested.

He got a reprimand talk with Wuhan's police. The police informed him that, according to Law of the PRC on Public Security Administration , it was illegal to spread rumours, such as, 7 confirmed SARS cases within his 150-peole WeChat group. He was asked to sign a letter of reprimand.

The other 7 people who spread similar rumours, ranging “X hospital has got many cases of SARS", "7 confirmed SARS cases" to "Y hospital has received a family of three from X continent, and now they are treated as suspected SARS", all got the same talks with Wuhan police.

Since the cases of all these 8 people were not serious, police just gave them some reprimand talks, NO caution, No punishment, No detention.

Wuhan police's Weibo (aka China's Twitter) official account posted its dealing of the 8 rumour spreaders/"whistle blowers" on Jan. 29th:https://www.weibo.com/u/2418542712?profile_ftype=1&is_all=1#_0, 642,720 thumb-ups for this post.

Posted by: lulu | Feb 9 2020 6:27 utc | 117

It's worth considering, given all the paranoia about Chinese residents and travellers now displayed in other countries, what the situation would be if China had not enacted a swift and draconian quarantine measure against Wuhan. The success of this measure (while not foolproof) is self-evident in the Johns Hopkins live updates of the number of infected inside and outside the quarantine zone. Imagine if instead, similar eruptions of tens of thousands of infected were taking place in Beijing and Shanghai due to initial waves of unrestricted Chinese travel. The Sinophobia would be an order of magnitude greater. If recent events are part of information warfare (as someone above suggested) this is likely what would have been expected. Note, that a Western plan to blame China for a global pandemic does not necessarily require the use of bioweapons. China is regularly the site of outbreaks of varying severity and it could simply be a matter of having the 'message' ready to go the next time a variant virus emerged.

Posted by: Glagaire | Feb 9 2020 6:39 utc | 118

vk @ 102 said;"Either way, one thing is already clear: the West is delighting itself with China's misery, and is trying to extract the most soft power benefits from it it can."

Yep, you can take it to the bank...

Posted by: ben | Feb 9 2020 6:50 utc | 119

The newest data of confirmed and suspected infections confirms the downward trend.

Only 6572 new cases during yesterday. A massive reduction.

Posted by: b | Feb 9 2020 7:14 utc | 120

China gets hit with viruses that disrupt its economy. This has not happened to any other country. Once is coincidence, twice is... what's the term.. hybrid warfare .. warby other means...

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 9 2020 7:36 utc | 121

If a population were to be hit with new viruses due to population density and sanitary conditions, then India would be copping a lot of new viruses, but it is China being hit.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 9 2020 7:40 utc | 122

It will be interesting to see if the virus gets a foothold in another country and how that plays out in relation to China....other than being way 2nd in the learning curve.
Posted by: psychohistorian | Feb 9 2020 5:49 utc | 111

Well, there is a hint of that from adamski in Vietnam, although it might be pure caution:

I live and work in the south of Viet Nam. Schools and language centres here closed for an extra week after the Tet holiday to combat the spread of the virus. The closure looks set to carry on for at least another week.
Posted by: adamski | Feb 9 2020 4:17 utc | 100

Adamski, please tell us about the situation in Vietnam. What is the situation on the ground? There was a small number of infections there amongst Chinese coming from Wuhan, so the infectious input is available. The desease affects predominantly Asians/Chinese, so lots of potential for infections. The Vietnamese cannot remotely compete with China in effectiveness and technology/resources - nor in openness and reliability of information. If it were to take hold there the results would certainly be very different to what we see in China (I am almost laughing at myself for using such dramatic words as I personally think it is little more than an overblown flu, but anyway any flu infection can also take hold in Vietnam).

Posted by: BM | Feb 9 2020 7:51 utc | 123

HMSM is manufacturing another Tiananmen Tank man with misleading inforamtion.


-->27/12/2019, Doctor Zhang Jixian, specialist of respiratory diseases and critical care from Wuhan Zhong Xi Hospital, already reported four cases of new type of pneumonia to District CDC.

-->29/12/2019, Dr. Zhang and Zhong Xi Hospital reported directly to Wuhan Municipal Health Commission about the new type of pneumonia, after receiving 3 more patients from Hunan Seafood Market between 28-29/12/19.

Around 17:00pm, Wuhan Municipal Health Commission immediately took action by sending experts from Jinyintan Hospital, specialised in infectious and contagious diseases, to check on and take in the patients.

-->30/12/2019, Wuhan Municipal Health Commission issued internal document to all hospitals asking about treating, tracking and reporting of new type of pneumonia.

--> 31/12/2019, National Health Commission & CDC already sent in teams of experts to take samples and investigate Huanan seafood market.

-->01/01/2020, Wuhan closed off Huanan seafood market.,


---> 30/12/2019, Dr. Li Wenliang, an ophthalmologistt,saw the file of a patient diagnosed with positive index of high confidence indicating: SARS coronavirus, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, 46oral/respiratory bacteria. He then sent the message to his 150-person chat group saying there were 7 confirmed SARSt, and asking them to NOT leakt this info.

Law of PRC on Prevention and Treatment of Infectious Diseases has set clear legal procedures that nobody without authorisation can publish info regarding infectious diseases, epidemic, etc.

27 & 29. 12.2019 (Dr. Zhang Jixian) vs 30.12.2019 (Li Wenliang ), who is the first one reported the new nCoV pneumonia to save the public lives? Who is the one that REALLY informed the health authorities?

Posted by: lulu | Feb 9 2020 8:15 utc | 124

@88 Grieved "The greatest civilization on the planet is giving all its people into the task of saving all its people, and those of all the world." This might be an exaggeration. But it IS impressive how China tried until now to win this war against a very strong opponent, the Corona virus. They are fighting vigorously, but it's not clear what will happen in next phase when self-isolation orders have to be softened.

@99 Imagine "focus on outcomes": That's one more realistic approach than to compare current infections with current deaths (what our mainstream media and CN government are doing). Personally, I am unconvinced that released people are recovered, and that people at home have only mild symptoms.

Another more realistic approach is to compare accumulated deaths as of today with infected 14 days ago (median time until CV diagnosed person might die). With numbers of today the ratio is 814:2015, which amounts to a CFR of 40%.
Approach discussed here: Worldometer - CV Mortality Rate and by Ferguson, as mentioned above.

Mankind should be in this war together, on the same side, which is the side of us as individuals. Let us challenge OUR governments and for-profit corporations to fight vigorously FOR US as well. China bashing doesn't help, it deserves our empathy and admiration, despite some beautified numbers here and there for good reasons.

Posted by: gkbw | Feb 9 2020 9:51 utc | 125

Thanks B for the article and thanks everyone who exposed the trolls like dorje and anon who tried to tag team supporting each other with sinophobic nonsense so transparent it border on ridiculous.

Meanwhile the SNAFU site also go full gas on spreading disinfo and anyone trying to post correction will be banned by their cowardly mod

Posted by: milomilo | Feb 9 2020 9:58 utc | 126

"Corona" definition Merriam Webster:
https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/corona

Strange... Nowhere it says "corona" also means "THE CROWN".
The word was widely used in souther Europe since midle ages.

(British crown) ?

Posted by: Qparticle | Feb 9 2020 10:14 utc | 127

milomilo | Feb 9 2020 9:58 utc | 127

"sinophobia"

A psychological symptom refferencing to phobia and anxiety attacks when close to other people with Asian origins. Ussualy diagnossed in City of London and wider London area.

(joking)

Posted by: Qparticle | Feb 9 2020 10:20 utc | 128

Would have to agree that there is a lot of Chinese bashing going on online, generally by morons. As to the virus, I hope Bs assessment proves correct, there has already been too much suffering in that unfortunate province.

Posted by: Rancid | Feb 9 2020 11:04 utc | 129

@Posted by: b | Feb 9 2020 7:14 utc | 121
The newest data of confirmed and suspected infections confirms the downward trend.

Thanks! This development is significant, even if the statistics may not cover the complete number of cases. The turning point was on the 5th, so a little less than 2 weeks after the introduction of the first quarantine in Wuhan. It matches the incubation period, as known so far.

That means that the virus can be contained, but it requires extraordinary measures.

The question remains, will other countries act decidedly enough too, if necessary?


Posted by: Alex | Feb 9 2020 11:05 utc | 130

@dorje #132
You continue to destroy your own credibility.
The beauty of free speech is that it puts everything into the common marketplace of ideas - the crap is then readily identifiable by those with a modicum of wisdom and analytical capabilities.
Your statements have disqualified themselves, and you.

Posted by: c1ue | Feb 9 2020 12:28 utc | 131

"Corona" definition Merriam Webster:
https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/corona

Strange... Nowhere it says "corona" also means "THE CROWN".
The word was widely used in souther Europe since midle ages.

(British crown) ?

Posted by: Qparticle | Feb 9 2020 10:14 utc | 127\
++++++++
The corona virus is so named because it resembles a crown (more so in two-dimensional images).

Posted by: Really?? | Feb 9 2020 13:25 utc | 132

@ Posted by: jadan | Feb 9 2020 4:35 utc | 106

If the number of deaths reamins as low as the official data suggest, and if those deaths remain essentially confined to 60+ year old people, then the economic impact in China, albeit significant, would be a one-off and very far from the end of the world.

A quarantine is the economic equivalent to a general strike. Like a general strike, they sure work in disrupting the economy, but they are extraordinary events. The economy drops, but quickly recovers next year.

Unless this epidemic reveals to be something to the level of the Antonine Plague, then I don't think it will cause permanent damage to China's economy (like the 2008 meltdown did to the West).

--/

@ Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 9 2020 7:40 utc | 122


The difference is India is a much less developed nation than China. It has much less "new interactions" per unit of time. To put it simply, India has a much less mobile population, who's essentially living under the same conditions as thousand years ago.

Less development means less susception to epidemics. Hunther-gatherers almost never got sick, and never were victims of epidemics (obviously, pandemics didn't exist in their time, since the populations were scattered and very small, whose mobility was restricted by the ecosystem itself). When humans became sedentary, epidemics become a thing because the forests and other natural habitats were devastated to give way to crops, which liberated the viruses and bacteria from their respective natural barriers.

The more development, the more the ecosystem becomes unbalanced, the more vulnerable to epidemics the human species becomes.

The Indian population is more vulnerable to other sanitary and subnutrition-related diseases, though. That's why the Indian life expectancy in lower than the Chinese one. This new coronavirus also seems to hit particularly hard heavy smokers (as we can attest by the fact that 79% of the deaths so far are male; in the Third World countries and in China in particular, smoking is culturally a masculine habit) - which is another collateral effect of industrial development (i.e. mass consumption of cigarettes).

It's also important to remember that what's happening in China after 1949 is unparalled in human history. It's urbanization process dwarves the one that happened in England during the first two industrial revolutions. Also, when the industrial revolution happened in Europe, it had already lost all of its original forests (Europe is by far the most devastated continent today, with less than 0.5% of its original forests remaining). That means China will have to make innovations that were never seen in the history of humanity - because they will have to face challenges never seen before.

Posted by: vk | Feb 9 2020 13:29 utc | 133

Re "crown," actually "corona" is a metaphor for crown but what it refers to is defined thus:

": a usually colored circle often seen around and close to a luminous body (such as the sun or moon) caused by diffraction produced by suspended droplets or occasionally particles of dust."

The corona virus has bits that project out from the main sphere of the virus, so in two-dimensional images these form a "corona," or halo, effect. Shown Here:
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/mers/photos.html

Posted by: Really?? | Feb 9 2020 13:32 utc | 134

@gkbw #125
Even disregarding the inanity of "modeling" by Ferguson - among other things, there is no way he has sufficient data to build a model - the methodology you describe is so wrong as to be laughable.
I'd also note that the "RMS infectious disease model" is a lot less credible than it appears. RMS sells a product to insurance companies - officially it is to allow them to more accurately price insurance. In practice, their models are such that insurance companies can charge more - unsurprising since there is clear conflict of interest present.
RMS models were so badly skewed that insurers had to pay back $1.3B in overcharges for hurricane insurance (for 3 years). source

Secondly, people aren't robots - they don't die exactly X days after being infected. Sicker people die faster than healthy people, in general, but tracking individual patients is how mortality rate is derived.

Again, as of a few days ago, 88% of the deaths were men over age 60 with a severe existing health condition. When you're halfway into the grave already, nCOV will push you the rest of the way in.
What is relevant is that normal flu kills the very young and very old. Swine flu killed, disproportionately, the healthy young adults as did SARS.
That nCOV appears to be killing just sick old men, if this holds - it doesn't look like a pandemic to me.

The quarantine measures are designed to slow down the spread, to give time to gather more data and do more research. They aren't going to make the disease disappear, but slowing the rate of infection/spread for an otherwise green field situation is sensible.

Posted by: c1ue | Feb 9 2020 13:35 utc | 135

Why are there none of these "novel" viral infections in India? Simple: India is a nominal ally/vassal of the empire. The empire has an interest in promoting the "free market"/neoliberal "democracy" model they represent and currently has no reason to attack them.

Important note about viruses, particularly "novel" ones: Viruses need a "reservoir" in the environment where they can evolve. If humans are frequently exposed to the virus, then the immune system adjusts as the virus evolves and you get moderate symptoms like a mild flu instead of a something deadly. This is why you never see deadly outbreaks in heavily populated isolated island communities even when the locals eat anything that moves and live with their pigs, that is unless that virus is introduced from outside the island.

What this means is that large, dense, and highly mobile populations in which that population comes into frequent contact with many kinds of animals and have few deep wilderness areas are less likely to see "novel" viruses spontaneously developing naturally that immune systems are ill-prepared to respond to. India may have significantly less wilderness than China, but the bulk of the Indian population is less mobile. This reduced mixing of the population allows the above-mentioned "reservoirs" to develop in remote areas. If these viruses were naturally occurring then we would expect to see more outbreaks in India than in China.

Posted by: William Gruff | Feb 9 2020 13:41 utc | 136

'The Moon' seems remarkably complacent about this virus, while the Chinese are locking down half their country, afraid of the dark mists appearing within their midst, and appearing as though they have some secret information, not available to the masses.

There are 'lies, damn lies, and statistics' and it is a brave person who can get a handle on this, at least over the short term.

Come back to this thread in April and you will see whether 'The Moon' is a genius, or a little too complacent!

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/first-american-citizen-dies-coronavirus-wuhan-5-britons-diagnosed-french-ski-town

And beware of the African connection. The match there might strike the 'tinder-box'!

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/coronavirus-african-connection


Posted by: Ric G | Feb 9 2020 13:42 utc | 137

Key Diagnostic Test Might Be Missing Many Coronavirus Cases

This is a classic case of panic-mongering and hysteria-inducing journalism.

Every test has its percentage of false negatives. Of course there are patients infected with the new coronavirus that were dismissed by the hospitals. But this is a calculated risk, with its given margin of error.

If we were to publish in the MSM the number of deaths due to misdiagnosed cancer in the First World, there would be mass hysteria and a spike in demand for cancer screening. That doesn't happen because the western MSM is not interested in causing chaos in their home court.

Posted by: vk | Feb 9 2020 13:49 utc | 138


The Epidemic Recedes

Wishful thinking

Posted by: mh505 | Feb 9 2020 13:57 utc | 139

Ref 5 Britons in France
The group had spent a week in an appartment in the Alps with one of them who was coming from Singapour.
ZH is lacking the minimum seriousness in the way they report this piece of information, sorry.

Posted by: Mina | Feb 9 2020 14:05 utc | 140

@Really 134, 136
Corona is a Latin word, meaning crown but also the circle around the sun etc. pp. English crown is a loanword from Latin via (predecessors of) French. English has the Latin word intact in the term coronation, because less used words tend to change more slowly. And corona as English word for the sun's surrounding is another newer loan from the same Latin word.

Posted by: BG13 | Feb 9 2020 14:07 utc | 141

@Several ppl - Dr. Frank Plummer died of a heart attack in Kenya. He keeled over -> dead. (News.)

He was an inveterate alcoholic who underwent experimental brain surgery to cure his addiction.

from the Globe and Mail

Dr. Plummer is the first patient with alcohol-use disorder to participate in the trial at Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre; researchers are hoping to get a total of six. It is believed to be the first trial of deep-brain stimulation for alcohol-use disorder in North America.

https://tgam.ca/38gsehO

This treatment is only open for 'end of the road' patients.

Ppl do keel over from heart attacks. Maybe his condition didn’t help? Or he just had a weak heart. Who knows.

sarc on: somebody secretly manipulated his brain stimulator! :)

Posted by: Noirette | Feb 9 2020 14:26 utc | 142

Here's an interesting point about nCOV which hasn't been talked about much: fecal-oral transmission.
Some of the news articles note that bodies are being treated as contagious, reinforcing this author's point about there being multiple ways nCOV can be transmitted: Wim Rost talking about nCOV at WuWT
No idea if his view is correct or supported: he's saying that nCOV infection via fecal-oral is less dangerous because the victim has more time to build up defenses vs. infection via aerial transmission directly into the lungs.
He does have a good precedent/point about the ability of nCOV to transfer from digestive system to rest of the body, if true: bubonic plague is transmitted by fleas on rats - going from bloodstream to rest of body, but it got really bad when the bacterium got into the lungs. At that point, transmissibility became aerial.
I'm not 100% convinced of the digestive system route though. Shaking hands = virus to other people, but it is just as likely the transmission is occurring when these people touch their eyes or nose as because they eat food without washing their hands first.
The conclusion is also not strong concerning deaths outside of China: the predominant demographic of nCOV deaths so far are 60+ year old men with severe health problems; I'd not be surprised that these types of people don't travel much, if at all.

Posted by: c1ue | Feb 9 2020 14:31 utc | 143

A video of a van with five bodies is far from conclusive in this regard.

Either way, one thing is already clear: the West is delighting itself with China's misery, and is trying to extract the most soft power benefits from it it can.

Posted by: vk | Feb 9 2020 4:26 utc | 105

The bizarre level of denial from many of you otherwise intelligent barflies is rather astonishing to me. Several comments: I never said anything about the other scenes in the video I referenced, only the five bodies in the van. The other scenes are no different than SF or NYC or even Portland, and can be explained or rationalized as inconclusive easily, even though many of those other clips are alarming and still possibly related to nCoV. However, the five bodies in the van that are thoroughly wrapped and being placed there by people dressed in heavily-protective / hazmat-level suits, are not likely as easy to dismiss as just some bodies in a van. If the quarantine agents are not of the opinion that they are likely nCoV victims, they probably wouldn't be treating the corpses in that manner.

The point I was making is that those bodies, some of which are victims of nCoV (1 or 5, pick your bias, but pretending that all 5 are natural causes unrelated to nCoV and were left uncared for until removal by quarantine enforcement is specious at best), are not included in the count of actual fatal victims of this virus. Therefore, the numbers coming in as reported deaths is wrong. This van wasn't for the entire city of Wuhan, but rather likely, just a small neighborhood/district quarantine center/morgue, and is therefore representative of a much larger number of uncounted nCoV deaths - in the city of Wuhan alone.

Which is more irresponsible - to warn that the scale is still unknown, and therefore caution is well-advised, or to declare that 'we got this' and therefore continue on as if everything is in control and normal? I never said to panic, I just say 'we don't yet know, but this isn't under control due to faulty statistics'. But still my post is dismissed and under attack as if I'm attacking China, etc. In Indianapolis today, the Shen Yun show is performing an afternoon performance. Should we all be so sanguine that there is absolutely no cause for concern going to a large auditorium with many Chinese nationals working now in Indy? Should everyone just ignore the reality that an extremely contagious virus with a long incubation rate and unknown transmission capacity is possibly going to be floating around that auditorium while they enjoy a wonderful show? Is it not foolish to assume that not one Chinese audience member was recently in southern China over the last month or two? It may be true, and I certainly hope so, but to ignore the possibility for the sake of normalcy is clearly stupid. It is amazing that so many of you defend the extreme level of quarantine by the CCP and yet are willing to dismiss caution outside of mainland China as foolishness. Why, because Bernhard believes the clearly faulty reported death toll?

Very disappointing to see Bernhard and fellow barflies so sanguine about this terrifying event unfolding. And to so blithely dismiss what are clear causes for concern regarding the actual death numbers versus the death counts reported is something I would have expected at far lesser quality gatherings of minds.

I'm a very infrequent poster, but fairly regular reader. Bernhard, I have been in awe of your knowledge which you gracefully share, and this is true about many of the regular barflies as well. On this very serious topic, however, the regulars here are proving to be less quality than zero hedge.

You are all wrong: the death count reported is far, far lower than true deaths from nCoV. The number will never be accurate as too many of the dead are burned before confirmation, and will never be added to the reported death count. To proclaim victory with this degree of faulty statistical reporting is not just ignorant, it's downright irresponsible.

Posted by: an on or miss | Feb 9 2020 14:43 utc | 144

@135 vk

I don't think that is necessarily true about development and disease. Or at least not empirical.

The Athenians were stuck in Athens under siege from the Spartans when the plague struck and hit them hard.

Turn of the 20th century in the U.S. saw disease mortality that is much higher than today in urban areas. What they found was that when they moved slaughterhouses outside the city, thanks to the combustion engine and trucks, water ways were far cleaner and less contaminated from animal holdings and these illnesses receded.

India has the same densely populated problems and even more slums than China, but has less animal-borne mutated viruses and epidemics.

You are right that China has more infrastructure in place than India and this has no doubt led to fewer water-borne illness, one would think.

But if we are thinking empirically about why China is ground zero, my theory is it has to do with their large population, rate of meat consumption, unregulated slaughter houses, and a lack of immune system priming which India has over China and where they eat far less meat as well.

China is really the only place this could have happened. The stars are in alignment.

There is no schadenfraude from pro-westerners here...and if there is...they are just fucking with you. China is in some pretty shit, but I fail to see how this can be used propgagandistically to any benefit by the West.

...

In other words...I think the China lovers are paranoid.

Posted by: Nemesiscalling | Feb 9 2020 14:47 utc | 145

Ric G @139
'The Moon' seems remarkably complacent about this virus, while the Chinese are locking down half their country, afraid of the dark mists appearing within their midst, and appearing as though they have some secret information, not available to the masses.

William Gruff @138
Why are there none of these "novel" viral infections in India? Simple: India is a nominal ally/vassal of the empire. The empire has an interest in promoting the "free market"/neoliberal "democracy" model they represent and currently has no reason to attack them.

It is not a question of "if" a pandemic will cull the human population, but when. 2019 nCoV is the latest, but there will be others. The Chinese Communist Party seems to acknowledge this. The new facilities in Hubei will be replicated throughout the nation.

B has not framed the pandemic correctly. He is not "complacent" so much as he's frightened and in denial. He's understanding the risk of pandemic as the leaders of humanity currently understand the danger of nuclear weapons. We got 'em under control! Biowarfare makes an equivalence between pandemics and nuclear war/nuclear pollution, but the pandemic threat is greater than the nuclear threat at this time for the simple reason that it is ignored/denied.

If the ruination of ecological order exposes mass populations to natural disasters, famine, disease, and warfare, then nature can be seen as an enemy. New diseases emerge from the environmental chaos naturally, with the added dimension of biological weapons development complementing the pandemic threat humans face. Nuclear weapons were once subject to diplomatic control, until the Lunatic Trump came on the scene. Bioweapon development was outlawed. But it has gone forward since 911 just the same, ignored and denied, just as B ignores and denies it.

We are not served by our intelligentsia. We are betrayed by the lack of courage of intellectual leaders.

Bioweapons are a reality. Conspiracies fester beneath the surface of social order in service of political agendas. "Democracy" is a global Potemkin Village.

Posted by: jadan | Feb 9 2020 14:58 utc | 146

@Posted by: Ric G | Feb 9 2020 13:42 utc | 139

To my initial suspicions on that this virus is really a bioweapon, comes to add this data, in case it is true since still unreported by Chinese officials or media, that now the infection has spread to Guangzhou ( a claim that could well be part of the US dissinfo and war against growing Chinese influence in Africa and around the world...)

It could well be in the realm of possibilities that the Hong Kong riots ( clearly provoked by the flourisihing, and competing, economy in neighboring Guangzhou, one of whose manifestation was the numerous criminal attacks on mainland Chinese arriving in Hong Kong ) could be related to the outbreak of this virus, due the current stop of the riots and instead the surge of information warfare coming from the US through its main officials like Pompeo and operatives in the net following exactly the same script.

It would be very easy for one of this clearly enajenated "riotters" to release the bioweapon in mainland China...

The clear relation and alternation between the violent riots in Hong Kong and the Coronavirus epidemic outbreak points at the same mastermind behind the two events...

Not to mention that it has been only the US who is using its shameful schadenfreude to try to profit from the outbreak of the Coronavirus epidemic, debunking some commenters´ here theory on that it is the "West" who is using this on the grounds of information warfare.
No European country has made such thing, as the statements from the Chinese authorities have clearly showed, calling only on the US to stop using this infection as informational weapon.

The king of Spain moves his support to China for the outbreak of the coronavirus

Queen Elizabeth II moves her solidarity and blessings to China in her fight against epidemic

More leaders from foreign countries and heads of international organizations have recently expressed their support for the battle of #China against the outbreak of the new #coronavirus and praised China's measures to prevent and control the epidemic.

https://twitter.com/XHespanol/status/1225851001036591105

"We all live in a global village and we must fight together against disasters." Leaders of foreign political parties have expressed their support for #China's efforts in the battle against the outbreak of the new #coronavirus in messages addressed to the CCP.

https://twitter.com/XHespanol/status/1225849156088090626

Posted by: Sasha | Feb 9 2020 15:05 utc | 147

Missing info in your post: We’re just learning that testing for 2019ncov can be tricky.

Dr. Li Wenliang was hospitalized for two weeks and tested negative multiple times before his death.
Turns out 2019ncov can live entirely in lower respiratory, where it will not show for nasal swabs.
May require aveolar lavage for accurate test, and that is only possible on the bronched (sedated, intubated).

i believe this information should reduce the certainty of your predictions

Posted by: Jerome | Feb 9 2020 15:38 utc | 148

Was the swine flu from Mexico in the 2000s a bioweapon? How many did that help to kill in the U.S.? 10,000?

Those dirty Ruskies!

Gimme a break, you guys.

Posted by: NemesisCalling | Feb 9 2020 15:47 utc | 149

On how this has been clearly used by the US against China, in spite of the recent and missleading Twitts and phone calls by the Donald ( surely provoked by the absolute isolation amongst the international community on his and his admnistration use of this event for profit ):

COLD WAR 2.0 AND THE RETURN OF THE "YELLOW DANGER": The "Wuhan coronavirus" or how to name a virus in a racist way

Related, and what nobody tells you in the pro-Trump media praising economic results by his presidency....

Pyrric Victory: One of the "collateral damage" of the US trade war against China has been causing the collapse of sales of the US chip industry, which has fallen to levels below those of the dotcom crisis

Posted by: Sasha | Feb 9 2020 15:47 utc | 150

@noirette

From the link you posted:
"Parkinson’s disease, depression, anorexia nervosa, post-traumatic stress disorder and addiction disorders."
That's not "end of the road".
Not being myself an expert in the English language, but I understand "end-stage" as meaning that the treatment is in the end of the list of possible treatments, because it is more risky. You only use it after other treatments have been tested without success.
There is nothing wrong by itself when someone aged 67 dies suddenly.
The problem is that it happens precisely when any serious inquiry about Chinese versus American bioweapon would need the most credible witness of what happened in the Winnipeg lab.

Posted by: Parisian Guy | Feb 9 2020 15:48 utc | 151

@an on or miss #145
So what do you believe is actually happening? i.e. what is the actual mortality rate?
And given that nCOV cases are being reported all over the world - why is the death rate outside of China, exactly 1 person so far?
Are the mysterious Chinese vans also in the US, Europe, Japan, etc?

Posted by: c1ue | Feb 9 2020 16:26 utc | 152

@ an on or miss | 145

I think you are jealous from Bernhardt. You shouldn't.

It is true that Bernhardt showed high gullibility when taking the numbers at face value.

Fortunately, you gave a little bit of value to this video, whom real origin is absolutely unknown. Therefore you still keeps the Gold Medal.

Posted by: Parisian Guy | Feb 9 2020 17:18 utc | 153

Regarding the Uighur Camp claims:

"A spokesperson from the UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) confirmed in a statement to The Grayzone that the allegation of Chinese “camps” was not made by the United Nations, but rather by a member of an independent committee that does not speak for the UN as a whole. That member happened to be the only American on the committee, and one with no background of scholarship or research on China"
https://thegrayzone.com/2018/08/23/un-did-not-report-china-internment-camps-uighur-muslims/

Posted by: Peter | Feb 9 2020 17:28 utc | 154

To recap...


As early as 1947
Nobel Prize-winning Australian microbiologist Sir Macfarlane Burnet secretly urged the Australian government in 1947 to develop bio-weapons for use against the ‘overpopulated countries of South-East asia.’

In a 1947 meeting with the New Weapons and Equipment Development Committee, the group recommended that ‘the possibilities of an attack on the food supplies of S-E Asia and Indonesia using B.W. agents should be considered by a small study group.’ [0]

1988
His Royal Virus
Reported by Deutsche Press Agentur (DPA)

August, 1988
In the event that I am reincarnated, I would like to return as a deadly virus, in order to contribute something to solve overpopulation. [1]

2010
The masons discussed a plan to depopulate China during a study group.
By triggering a pandemic in China which'll spread to the rest of the world so that China is blamed for its own demise.
CHINA WILL CATCH A COLD. [2]

2011
NIH sponsored scientist Ron Fouchier wanna publicize how to DIY weaponising H5N1

2011
Hillary of 'The family' warned about ‘danger of genetic bioweapons attack from AQ’ [SIC]


2012,
CDC insiders predicted a pandemic crisis in the next year,


2012
someone referred to that free masons meeting in 2010.
'Why would any sane person publish details about how to weaponize bird flu? We are not dealing with sane people.

We are dealing with people infected by the blasphemous reality of the mentally ill: Satanism. We are dealing with Illuminists-Satanists who are out to execute their agenda for depopulation, genocide, fomenting chaos, diseases, deaths, violence …. to initiate hell on earth … to prepare the way for their fake messiah, the Anti-Christ, the bringer of false peace, the white horseman of Revelation 6. They want to use bio-weapons and even race specific Bird Flu in this coming Satanic World War 3.

This act of publishing the detail how-to of airborne transmissible virulent Bird Flu is just for plausible deniability before the western Illuminati employs it. They will say it is an act of rogue terrorists and nothing to do with their MIC.' [from my archive]


2013
China hit by H5N1 bird flu,

PS.
2013
BIll Gates
“the benefits (of vaccines) are there in terms of reducing sickness, reducing population growth.” He then adds that “it really allows society a chance to take care of itself [3]
==================

2014
NIH sponsored scientist Ron Fouchier publicised enhanced method of weaponising H5N1

===============
Jun 2017

murkkan Scientists publicized their research on …weaponising H7N9

How To Kill A Whole Lot Of People: Scripps Scientists Publish How They Made H7N9 Virus More Transmissible The scientists themselves who were conducting the specific research on how they made H7N9 virus increase its rate of human transmissions are already publicizing it.

More than that, they are also studying specific strains from different locations on Earth, so that a gene, or race, specific attack can be made possible.

The viruses being experimented upon “have been collected in at least 28 countries in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia.”


2018
China hit by H7N9 almost wiping off its poultry industry.
=======================

2019
China hit by swine flu,
Pig farms nation wide were sprayed with swine flu virus by armies of professionally modified drones. !

China forced to buy pork from US again !

==============================
2020 jAN
Bill Gates warned about ‘global pandemic’. during a 'simulation of global pandemic'

2020 Feb,
China hit by SARS2, AND H5N1

==================

[0]
https://www.veteranstoday.com/2020/01/21/new-improved-sars-bioweapon-Tested-in-china/


[1]
https://www.bibliotecapleyades.net/sociopolitica/esp_sociopol_depopu12.htm
https://larouchepub.com/other/2014/4122charles_empire.html#fn3

[2]
http://projectcamelot.org/lang/en/anglo_saxon_mission_presentation_traNscript_en.html

[3]
https://thefreedomarticles.com/bill-gates-vaccines-reduce-population-growth/

Posted by: denk | Feb 9 2020 17:40 utc | 155

The edu-phobic 9/11 Trufers who were either too lazy to read the NIST Report, or too stupid to understand it, have now switched their uninformed debunking "skills" onto debunking China's Official Story about the Coronavirus - judging by the tiresome drivel they're posting in this thread...

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Feb 9 2020 17:55 utc | 156

Posted by: jadan | Feb 9 2020 14:58 utc | 147

Ah well...

...Tešim se da sve to nije tako crno,
A ne može biti crnje...

Posted by: hopehely | Feb 9 2020 18:51 utc | 157

Have a listen to this pompous buffoon and tell me he is not using the current situation in China to further blacken China's image. This is the same guy who while at a Texas A&M engagement publicly stated that he lies as part of his job. In this video I would even go so far as to say he is threatening the governors, "We are watching you.".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SqQ1A7bKLhw&feature=emb_title

There's no bottom to this.

Posted by: Tom_LX | Feb 9 2020 19:12 utc | 158

Malthusian growth model says it’s all in the sauce.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malthusian_growth_model

Through the animal and vegetable kingdoms, nature has scattered the seeds of life abroad with the most profuse and liberal hand. ... The germs of existence contained in this spot of earth, with ample food, and ample room to expand in, would fill millions of worlds in the course of a few thousand years. Necessity, that imperious all pervading law of nature, restrains them within the prescribed bounds. The race of plants, and the race of animals shrink under this great restrictive law. And the race of man cannot, by any efforts of reason, escape from it. Among plants and animals its effects are waste of seed, sickness, and premature death. Among mankind, misery and vice.
— Thomas Malthus, 1798. An Essay on the Principle of Population. Chapter I.

Posted by: Sakineh Bagoom | Feb 9 2020 19:42 utc | 159

Quite some bullshit here from commentators who we have never seen before.

There is zero evidence that nCoV19 is a bio-weapon. There is quite some evidence that it is typical evolution of well known other coronavirii.

There is zero evidence that the official Chinese data is intentionally wrong. There are question about test veracity and how to qualify a person as infected but that is just normal at this still early stage.

Those who claim that there are more victims than the numbers China publishes should provide evidence for their claims. Remember: "In God we trust. All others have to provide data."

If you are in need of "We will all die!!!" sensationalism go to zerohedge or some other lunacy site. I for one will continue to take a rational approach to this issue.

Posted by: b | Feb 9 2020 20:20 utc | 160

How long does it take to roast a camel?

There are three other reasons for the CCP to fudge its numbers. The first is the still vibrant tradition of "face" and the second is the tendency, particularly in authoritarian bureaucracies, for functionaries to desperately avoid blame. The third is the CCP/China's highly sensitive nationaIism, particularly to perceived inadequacies vs the west. I hope the CCP has moved beyond these to transparency, for all our sakes.

Posted by: NoOneYouKnow | Feb 9 2020 20:21 utc | 161

Some of us are more cynical than others regarding the information we are getting about the coronavirus situation. b is among the less cynical. Maybe we'll find out he was more wrong that right, maybe he'll prove more right than wrong, and maybe we'll never know. If he is painfully incorrect on this matter it is not going to cause me to read his column with additional cynicism.
b is the best all around geo-political "plus" analyst (that is, he knows about a heck of a lot more stuff than the geo-politics of which he is a past master) on the Internet (writing in English, which is all I can read). There are a number of fabulous analysts out there. b is simply the best. And I think that's freaking people out here a bit. Some of the people who frequent this forum cannot accept the possibility he could be wrong about something. This assumption of infallibility is the highest compliment an analyst can receive. So don't forget to send him some lunch money from time to time so we can keep reading, and criticizing too. And let's all keep praying he's not wrong.

Posted by: Bruce | Feb 9 2020 20:26 utc | 162

@ Posted by: Nemesiscalling | Feb 9 2020 14:47 utc | 146

Your hypothesis could make some sense - except for the fact that the Chinese life expectancy (76 years) is much higher that the Indian life expectancy (66 years).

--//--

@ Posted by: NoOneYouKnow | Feb 9 2020 20:21 utc | 162

Everybody has reasons. But you must provide evidence.

If you want to play the circumstancial evidence game, then let's use the data from the so-called Western Democracies (South Korea, Japan, USA, UK, Canada, HK). According to the NYT, patient zero was infected at December 6th, 2019. Allegedly, local government corruption stifled the case for almost one month, until, at December 30th, a doctor "whistleblowed" (to a group of 10 friends in a chat) that there were at least seven cases of SARS in a local seafood market. Again according to the NYT, this doctor was censured by the evil communist machine for spreading "dangerous rumors" (actually, he just had to sign a reprimand) and the case was again stifled for circa 15 more days, when the disease finally became an epidemic and it was impossible to hide anything.

So, December 6th (patient zero) to January 15th (becomes epidemic). That's almost one and a half months. The new coronavirus has an incubation period between 7 and 14 days. According to some western sources, the virus can be transmitted even in its incubation phase. Also according to western sources, more than 50 million passed through Wuhan and its province in this period, going back to the rest of China and to the rest of the world.

If all these information are true and the 10-15% "real" mortality rate is also true, then by now we should certainly have a full-fledged pandemic, with millions of cases and thousands of deaths in Japan, South Korea, UK, USA and other countries. But even recent vacation ships in quarantine reaveal only a few infected (the most recent in Japan had only six infected).

Well, if mortality is so high, then they should also be high in the Western Civilization - which received the information about the new coronavirus much later, well after the 7-14 day incubation period. Thousands of patient zeros should've already be detected in Paris, London, Vancouver, Los Angeles, New York, Tokyo, Moscow, Seul etc. etc.

But that's not the case. Mortality in the rest of the world is negligible, much similar (taking into account the statistical fluctuation from the negligible number of infected) to the one officially publicized within China.

And the reason why the WHO is not allowed to interfere in China is very simple.

First: the Chinese have a much better infrastructure than the WHO, so the WHO would do more harm than good in the complex logistics of a mass-wide quarantine - which are essentially military operations in terms of scale and complexity (so much so that the PLA is directly involved).

Second: the IMF, World Bank, OPCW, UN et al are all instruments of American (Western) intervention on national affairs of countries that are enemies of the USA; why wouldn't China be suspicious of the WHO, once having access to the Chinese security apparatus and lines of communications, to systematically sabotage and implement disaster capitalism in the country?

Posted by: vk | Feb 9 2020 21:12 utc | 163

Posted by: b | Feb 9 2020 20:20 utc | 161:

Those who claim that there are more victims than the numbers China publishes should provide evidence for their claims. Remember: "In God we trust. All others have to provide data."

I have no doubt that China's current official numbers are true. However, I suspect that very mild and mild cases were under-reported in Wuhan in the first few weeks of the outbreak, because of the heavy burden put on Wuhan's healthcare system in the early days. This is indicated by the difference in mortality rates between Wuhan (4.1%) and the rest of China (<0.2%). This kind of under-reporting in the early stage of an epidemic is a common occurrence.

Posted by: difficult bird | Feb 9 2020 21:12 utc | 164

Just been reported that Chinese authorities have stated that this virus is airborne, ie can be picked up floating in the air. That makes it a lot more serious.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12307276

A Chinese official has confirmed a scary new fact about the deadly coronavirus: it is airborne.

It was previously understood that two main ways the virus transmitted from person to person were:

• Direct transmission: breathing in air close to an infected patient who sneezes or coughs, and

• Contact transmission: when a person touches an object tainted with the virus before infecting themselves by touching their mouth, nose or eyes.

However, over the weekend, an official in Shanghai confirmed the virus also travelled through aerosol transmission, which means it can float a long distance through the air and cause infection later when it is breathed in.

"Aerosol transmission refers to the mixing of the virus with droplets in the air to form aerosols, which causes infection after inhalation, according to medical experts," Shanghai Civil Affairs Bureau deputy head Zeng Qun said at press briefing on Saturday, the China Daily reports.

"As such, we have called on the public to raise their awareness of the prevention and control of the disease caused by family gatherings."

The concerns about airborne spread of the disease are so dire that the government has urged residents to cancel all social activities and avoid gatherings altogether.


Posted by: Anonymous | Feb 9 2020 22:48 utc | 165

btw "Pandemic" is a truly great board game that simulates all this happening. Fascinating game design: Rather than a typical American competitive game, this game pits all the players (representing humanity) against the viruses. It's designed so that you have to be COOPERATIVE in order to survive. Very fun. Worth ordering and playing, as it gives a visual, physical, intuitive grasp of what an exponential explosion on a worldwide basis looks like.

Posted by: Imagine | Feb 9 2020 23:55 utc | 166

Pandemics happen periodically on a worldwide basis, and my money is on a natural mutation rather than a bioweapon. I could be wrong.

World should be more worried about nuclear launch/bombing accidents. I think this has a higher chance of wiping everybody out than various pandemics. There's been at least 10 near misses so far. We have been and continue to be THAT close to omnicide.

Posted by: Imagine | Feb 10 2020 0:04 utc | 167

@ b #161

There is zero evidence that the official Chinese data is intentionally wrong

That's an interesting statement. Someone with an enquiring mind might however pose the following question:

"Where is the evidence that the official Chinese data is correct?"

Posted by: mh505 | Feb 10 2020 0:17 utc | 168

Chris Martenson latest on the virus!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y4Ho96UKfYA

A grim perspective!

Posted by: Ric G | Feb 10 2020 0:29 utc | 169

@Bernhardt

There is zero evidence that nCoV19 is a bio-weapon

That's correct.
Once you have remembered that the use of such weapon is forbidden and would start WW3, you knows it is very unlikely the criminal would left any evidence. Furthermore he would build the appearance of an accident.
Therefore, the absence of evidence, the apparent link to the seafood market and the similarity with natural virus are all equally corroborating both hypotheses.

By the way I guess you knows about Popper. What is your comment about falsifiability in the current controversy? Taking into account that it works differently whether "there cannot be evidence available for such theory" is 1) an hypothesis belonging to the claimed theory or 2) a fact of the real world.

By the way also, I appeared here a little before one year ago, when the Yellow Vests invaded my hometown. Also, when the houthi's drones destroyed the Saudi refinery.

Posted by: Parisian Guy | Feb 10 2020 0:39 utc | 170

b @161
If you are in need of "We will all die!!!" sensationalism go to zerohedge or some other lunacy site. I for one will continue to take a rational approach to this issue.

It is not rational to believe the pronouncements of the CCP. All official data from China is tailored to fit a narrative that furthers social stability, trust in government policy, and belief in the wisdom and good intent of the Party. There is no transparency and no spontaneous expressions of truth that are not ruthlessly suppressed. This a political necessity in a society that is dangerously overpopulated. If the US had a population of 1 billion, there would be no second amendment and no libertarian culture of sovereign individuality. You would be suppressed. The Declaration of Independence would be consigned to the dustbin of history.

Overpopulation is in itself a chronic condition of instability. You can acknowledge that or deny it, but if you're the CCP you struggle mightily with the threat daily. Climate change is a condition of instability which the president of this benighted country rejects to the detriment of us all. The existence of genocidal weapons exacerbates the threat of structural instability that we experience, which is nothing in comparison to China's experience. Bioweapons do exist and pose an even greater threat than nuclear weapons because they are unacknowledged.It is rational to consider the laboratory origin of 2019nCoV and irrational to deny the possibility.

My primary source for bioweapons information is Dr. Francis Boyle who has played a large role in the attempt to outlaw these bioweapons. He developed international protocols that became law in 1989.

Hopefully readership of your blog will increase and people will be stimulated to think for themselves ( which is not a virtue in China ) and consider this issue of ultimate concern and maybe dare to post a comment! I want others to consider the possibility that the situation is worse than we are being told and that we are lied to by our leaders and betrayed by our institutions.

Posted by: jadan | Feb 10 2020 2:47 utc | 171

from b: There is zero evidence that the official Chinese data is intentionally wrong.

The fact is test kits are limited, and testing capacity is limited. It is highly unlikely that they are testing corpses. I do not have proof, but there is no intelligent rationality to waste limited resources on corpses in this instance, and I agree with that likely decision. Logistically some of those untested dead are also likely victims of this virus. The video shows wrapped corpses that authorities are treating as though they are possibly related to this virus. They are not likely counted in the final death count numbers. My initial post was to question the veracity of death counts, which are needed for any honest statistical analysis. So far, I have found no reason to dismiss my skepticism. Defending those obviously errant numbers is irresponsible and dangerous.

If the number of dead victims is false, then all projections of CFR or mortality cannot be trusted. Intentionally or not from the CCP, the fact is they are not reporting useful death counts, and that fact should be reported. The fact is that they cannot give accurate death counts due to limited testing resources, and there has been no explanation of the composition of death counts or acknowledgement of the possible inaccuracies therein. Covering it up, or denying that fact alone is making anyone referencing those numbers a liar. Willful ignorance is personal, I could care less; but intentional ignorance pushed on others is dangerous.

Posted by: an on or miss | Feb 10 2020 3:44 utc | 172

@ 161 b.. quote of the week, lol....

"Quite some bullshit here from commentators who we have never seen before."

Posted by: james | Feb 10 2020 4:59 utc | 173

The first article below makes a very interesting observation that the Americans were running a simulated exercise of a Coronavirus outbreak in Oct. 2019--before the Wuhan outbreak even occurred. This exercise was called Event 201 and staged at John Hopkins University and sponsored by the World Economic Forum and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

Two Birds with One Flu: Coronavirus is US’ Latest Weapon Against China…and its Own Dissidents
https://www.greanvillepost.com/2020/02/05/two-birds-with-one-flu-coronavirus-is-us-latest-weapon-against-china-and-its-own-dissidents/

And speaking of the benevolent Bill Gates, he apparently also "predicted" a Coronvirus outbreak in a documentary that aired on NETFLIX in the Fall of 2019--again even before the Wuhan outbreak occurred.

Bill Gates predicted coronavirus-type pandemic could ‘kill millions’ in 2019 Netflix documentary
https://metro.co.uk/2020/01/31/bill-gates-predicted-coronavirus-type-pandemic-kill-millions-2019-netflix-documentary-12159314/

The Americans are either Nostradamus --- or they seem to have had *foreknowledge* that there would be a Coronavirus outbreak.

The fact that this outbreak hit one of America's designed enemy nations (China), causing it significant economic damage--as well as conveniently handing the United States a useful propaganda weapon to bash China with--is purely, utterly coincidental. ;-)

China – Western China Bashing – vs. Western Biowarfare?
https://www.globalresearch.ca/china-western-china-bashing-western-biowarfare/5703152

This issue is also evocative of 9-11 insider trading on Wall Street in which "put options" were placed that suggested foreknowledge of the Sept. 11th attacks.

9/11 Attacks: Criminal Foreknowledge and Insider Trading lead directly to the CIA’s Highest Ranks
https://www.globalresearch.ca/9-11-attacks-criminal-foreknowledge-and-insider-trading-lead-directly-to-the-cia-s-highest-ranks/32323

It is also harkens back to America's Project for a New American Century (PNAC) think-tank, which eerily anticipated the New Pearl Harbor event of 9-11 with its document, Rebuilding America's Defences, published in Sept. 2000. This document not only implicitly anticipated 9-11 but also other events like the American war of aggression against Iraq, and even that the USA "may consider developing biological weapons 'that can target specific genotypes [and] may transform biological warfare from the realm of terror to a politically useful tool.'"

This war on terrorism is bogus
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2003/sep/06/september11.iraq

Posted by: ak74 | Feb 10 2020 5:40 utc | 174

Thank you B and others and thank you China.

There are clearly a few people in the world who (mistaken and shortsighted to the extreme) think it benefits themselves to try to induce panic, if nothing else to try to sell more newspapers or advertising space. Their targets are those who can't or won't accept the imperfections and tentativeness of the real world (which seems to be something entirely alien to them) and thus need the allure of absolutist yet nonsensical "facts" plucked out of nowhere to satisfy all kinds of weird biases and convictions.

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Feb 10 2020 6:34 utc | 175

I am quite disappointed by how shallow the treatment of this world wide event. It's clear to me that the blog tries to triangulate from ZH and is ready to sacrifice its credibility in order to gain something (how does one gain something from being biased and ignorant, I have no idea).

Very disappointed, the ridiculous bias and lack of intellectual integrity was noticeable from the very first post on the topic. It definitely makes the blog look less credible with respect to the host of other topics discussed here.

Posted by: MeliaB | Feb 10 2020 6:38 utc | 176

One thing should be clear: the health care system in Hubei province is overwhelmed, so a lot of people there died from the new coronavirus infection.

Outside Hubei the story is different.

According to a Chinese source (https://news.sina.cn/zt_d/yiqing0121) Chinese statistics excluding those in Hubei are: 10593 confirmed cases, 38 deaths and 1545 cured cases. (I computed the totals.)

Some people would like us to believe that these statistics, being Chinese, aren't trustworthy.

One way to see whether they are is to compare them with statistics from outside China: 319 confirmed cases, 1 death and 34 cured cases. Can anyone challenge them?

Percentwise, the two sets of statistics aren't very different. If you doubt the Chinese statistics then you should doubt the statistics from outside China too.

Maybe China has just doctored statistics from Hubei? Why, might I ask?

Posted by: TN | Feb 10 2020 6:44 utc | 177

Bunch of jokers the Chicom apologists are. Anything from the US government is to be gone over with a fine tooth comb, but anything from the holy CCP is to be treated as gospel truth. The scale of their deployment now three weeks old, suggests that they suspect a leak from their bioweapons lab, that may or may not have occurred. But their actions all speak of that as the primal fear. Fear itself, fear of what the Chicoms are capable of drives the people to madness apart from anything the disease is capable of.

Posted by: ivan | Feb 10 2020 10:24 utc | 178

so many people born yesterday, this is the fourth ‘pandemic’ in recent history...

Posted by: Jimbo | Feb 10 2020 11:26 utc | 179

...
It is not rational to believe the pronouncements of the CCP. All official data from China is tailored to fit a narrative that furthers social stability, trust in government policy, and belief in the wisdom and good intent of the Party. There is no transparency and no spontaneous expressions of truth that are not ruthlessly suppressed.
...
Posted by: jadan | Feb 10 2020 2:47 utc | 170

Why let the truth get in the way of a load of Western bollocks?

One suspects that you're basing this fatuous assumption on the CCP's reprimand of the Chinese doctor who discovered the nCoV19 virus. However, you've conveniently "forgotten" why the CCP was angry with him. It's because, as a qualified medical person, he knew that he should FIRST have notified Chinese Medical Officialdom of his suspicions instead of blathering to a few (drunk?) mates at a party.
Doing something that myopically stupid could get a doctor into strife in many countries.

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Feb 10 2020 11:49 utc | 180

@ Posted by: ivan | Feb 10 2020 10:24 utc | 177

So, now you're blaming China for being too efficient?

China is bigger than your country, everything that happens there is on a scale that transcends the imagination of any westerner. No wonder that crises that would just require a bunch of people in a micro European country requires an military-grade operation in China.

--//--

@ Posted by: an on or miss | Feb 10 2020 3:44 utc | 171

We're talking about scientific truths, not the absolute truth (in philosophy, the "thing in itself"). A scientific truth is never the absolute truth, but a model of the absolute truth, an honest approximation which humans can use to predict and maybe alter the future.

Nobody will ever know the true number of infected and dead by the new coronavirus - or any other disease for that matter. But that doesn't stop your local doctor from diagnosing you with a common flu with a 60% diagnosis certainty. That's why doctors almost always ask you to come back if the treatment fails.

Every doctor kills patients thanks to medical error. There is a statistics of people who die every year from medical errors, and each individual doctor has its own percentage of deaths from human error (misdiagnosis). The difference is that the western MSM doesn't keep waging those numbers in their front pages in order to induce panic and chaos - otherwise nobody would trust doctors, or medicine in general.

--//--

@ Posted by: jadan | Feb 10 2020 2:47 utc | 170

Then China is kept afloat on pure imagination. Therefore China isn't a threat to Western hegemony. Therefore Donald Trump is crazy. Therefore the USA shouldn't bother trying to "decouple" from China.

If China is a paper tiger as you suggest, then why are its enemies worried about its rise?

Posted by: vk | Feb 10 2020 11:57 utc | 181

Alright, there is nothing here to see: go put your arrogant heads back in the sand.

Posted by: an on or miss | Feb 10 2020 14:33 utc | 182

Xi showed up for the first time with a face mask. I would not like to live on an island in Asia.

Posted by: Mina | Feb 10 2020 14:38 utc | 183

@ Posted by: an on or miss | Feb 10 2020 14:33 utc | 181

So, do you have better (scientifically based) estimates? Or is that only God speaking through you?

Posted by: vk | Feb 10 2020 14:51 utc | 184

Many here making much allegation on China gov faking data don'even able to read Chinese ground info.

Its reported in Chinese media that China gov has set up a very robust system after SARS crisis to track epidemic outbreak timely.

Some Chinese netizens also doubt if Wuhan local gov is hiding data, but was quickly cleared as all provinces are more incenticize to report higher figure for more resources grant from central gov. There isn't incentive for any officials to cover up risking their own lifetime career. Commie is indeed ruthless towards officials that break their code of conduct.

On some discrepancy of data, the chief Dr of the epidemic control that also incharged in last 2003 SARS, is rather open in discussing the epidemic.

He has been repeatedly explained its still in climbing stage, the actual peak is not known yet as many unknown carriers yet to surface up under long incubation period.

First the hospitals are totally overwhelmed by scared people with any normal flu symptoms, while other sickness continue to require treatment. Many are asked to take basic medicine & self quarantine at home to avoid cross infection in overcrowded hospitals.

Some patients may died or recover before they even get to diagnose with the limited test kits. No one is going to waste precious resources to test the corpse. As precaution, all are cremated without count under nCov. Bare in mind, seasonal flu, infections, heart attack, etc. actually each caused more deaths than nCov daily in 1.4B China. Also over 70% nCov death is old age with long term illness.

Then there are many young ones who recovered without symptoms unknowingly, many mild ones(80%) recovered with simple medication before test kits is available during initial stage. This can be hundreds of thousands.

By this sense, it can be said that China gov data may has under reported since its beyond anyone capability to pin precisely in such outbreak of 11M large city, while 600M is moving across 1400M country. Its simply too far off to allege any cover up.

As thousands of medical Drs, resources & test kits are rush into Wuhan, more confirm cases are pick up which is why the sudden surge. Also more carriers are surfacing up over 2wks quarantine period, which is the main objective of quarantine.

Frankly most of my Chinese friends and all social media postings are optimistic to stay at home with very supporting view of gov strong actions to contain the outbreak. Their slogan has been Don't go out(as long food not run out), Wear Mask(if going out), Wash hands.

As of now, Wuhan death rate is 4%, Hubei= 3%, outside Hubei=0.36%, China overall 2.26%. Overseas =0.44%.
At 4% in epicenter, 0.36% outside, 0.44% overseas, VS normal influenza death rate of 0.1%(after all vaccines), its not that alarming.

Which is why Spore with only 6M population, has declared that under such low death rate, should it face an outbreak, it will simply treat it like normal flu without quarantine to avoid overwhelming hospitals. This will allow serious cases to be treated timely in free up hospitals, while life goes on.

No one can harnessed such resources & political will to lockdown cities of 40-400M without generating into chaos & riots, except China.

Everyone should be gratitude of Chinese sacrifice to contain outbreak overflowing into the world. They could instead take US easy path to remain silent, let the virus takes it natural path to kill globally & make a great vaccines sales to compensate their loses.

So West msm are extremely suspicious of waging a scare media warfare in their over hyping, part of USNato asymmetrical warfare to isolate China globally destroying its rise.

Posted by: TTdr | Feb 10 2020 15:14 utc | 185

a different approach to the phenomenon. I cannot say that Jon Rappaport is correct, but at least it shows a way of explaining things in a different way. To me the question is always: what is first? The disease or the microbe?

China “epidemic” cases with no coronavirus—what??

And there are a couple of other questions? How are virus test performed? What exactly is detected? The virus itself, or the virus indicators? (Which can have other causes)

Posted by: Phil | Feb 10 2020 16:26 utc | 186

Thanks for providing us these elements

Posted by: Mina | Feb 10 2020 16:32 utc | 187

It definitely makes the blog look less credible with respect to the host of other topics discussed here.

Posted by: MeliaB | Feb 10 2020 6:38 utc | 177

++++++++++

Classic concern troll!
Put it in the concern troll textbook.

Posted by: Really?? | Feb 10 2020 17:32 utc | 188

>I am quite disappointed by how shallow the treatment of this world wide event.

It is unfortunate that the poster neglected to include any specifics. Personally I am not much convinced by hand-waving. As for the accuracy of the reported numbers, of course they are only estimates based on a fast-moving situation. Overworked physicians and nurses may be more focused on keeping people alive than on filling out forms.

I hope that posters will give a thought to the medical people risking their own health, whether official reports are honest or fraud. I recall that during the big West Africa Ebola epidemic, some nurses were treated horribly on their return to Uncle Sam Land. Instead of honoring them as heroes, they were basically driven out of town, thus proving once again that no good deed goes unpunished.

If the virus gets loose in the US, Canada, or UK, and many other places as well, their medical systems would be immediately overwhelmed. And they will have earned every bit of it.

Posted by: Trailer Trash | Feb 10 2020 17:37 utc | 189

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51447761
Coronavirus: Brighton GP practice closes after staff member tests positive
Let's see how Bojo handle that.

Posted by: Mina | Feb 10 2020 17:41 utc | 190

@meliaB

The blog tries to triangulate from ZH and is ready to sacrifice its credibility in order to gain something

The root cause of your discontent is your own laziness. You never seriously checked what actually happened when ZH pretended to have been martyred by Twitter.
If you carefully read their paper, you'll see that they were not doxing, they called for Lynching the Chinese scientist, they said explicitly "to pay him a visit ", before giving his public coordinates.
Furthermore the charges they made against the Chinese were pure speculation.

The definitive evidence of their dishonesty came when instead of pleading they made an error, they pretended to be martyr of free speech. When they claimed to be innocent of doxing, it was irrelevant to what their actual crime was. But it was a very effective smokescreen. You didn't see it.

One could also speak about the reasons why ZH regularly peddles the propaganda of the Zionist Gatestone Institute. Or the many bullshit traders which are only driven by greed...

You can trust me: just check my many comments about nCov, and you'll be sure that I'm not on the payroll of the marketing department of the future Bernhardt'media corporation.

But on China topics, ZH is almost certainly on the same payroll than a lot of of US MSM, doing the agenda of Langley.

Posted by: Parisian Guy | Feb 10 2020 18:20 utc | 191

Rise in sulfur dioxide could be sign of mass cremations in Wuhan
Windy map shows spike in SO2 emissions from Wuhan, possibly signaling increased cremations
"The third possibility proposed was that: "Dead bodies are being burned on the outskirts of the city, the death numbers are way higher than the CCP is letting on about, and things are really, really bad." One netizen even calculated that it would take the burning of 14,000 bodies to reach such a high level of SO2."
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3874013

Posted by: Bruce | Feb 10 2020 20:26 utc | 192

For what it may be worth, since the discussion continues...

b posted (and I have commented):

@dorje and others.

Epidemics is a numbers game.

I see no reason to doubt the Chinese government numbers as it is in THEIR best interest to get this thing under control. [While “it is in THEIR best interest to get this thing under control”, they are under no obligation to tell the truth about the extent of the problem while they do so, least of all if it is as great as it appears to be.] They have no way to benefit from hiding any higher numbers. [They have every way to benefit from hiding any higher numbers: it prevents panic.] It would not work as the epidemic would continue to spread. [But in a society where the government has almost entire narrative control, it keeps the people ignorant.] How would China's government profit from that? [It would buy time, before the threat of panic sets in...]

People in Wuhan have been left to die at home. The government went around dragging people into the quarantine camps where, so far, their is no medical care let alone proper sanitation. They don't have enough testing, supplies, masks, etc.

In fact there are police and others working door to door to take peoples' temperature. [This is pointless, because the infected person is contagious long before a fever develops. For SARS, it was the opposite: it was only when the fever developed that the person became contagious. In short, they are fighting the last – not the current – war… ] Those who have significant symptoms will have to see a doctor and may get quarantined [after already having infect how many others?]. Those places where that happens are large sports or conference centers which have sanitations for mass events. Medical personal has been deployed and is available where needed.

Test kits are now available [but in insufficient numbers and nobody is testing the dead to ascertain what they died from]. The WHO alone distributed at least a quarter million. China produces them en mass. [But there are over 400 MILLION persons affected, and it is growing with Chengdu now under quarantine.] There might be still be a lack in qualified laboratory personal and laboratory space.

It took some time to recognize the danger of this outbreak. The local doctors (see recommended piece) were pretty fast in getting it. It took some time for that to filter upward through the bureaucracy. China is country of 1.4 billion people. A sudden local increase of pneumonia death of some 20 or 50 people takes time to be recognized at the top level.

After that happened China did all the right things. Identified the virus, alarmed the global public, isolated the epidemic, moved all possible resources to the response. [The speed with which the virus was identified – impossibly fast, according the many observers – suggests that it was already well know – from a bio-warfare lab?]

The H1N1 broke out in the U.S. and Mexico in April 2009. It took President Obama until October 2009 to declare it a national emergency. By that time it had already spread worldwide and in the end killed some 17,000 people. What do you think would have happened if nCoV19 would have emerged in the U.S.? [Hypothetical question: the United States medical system is suffering from decades of neglect, and the Powers That Be see medical care as a commodity, not a public health matter to be acted on by the government – until it gets so bad – as in 2009 – that it can no longer be ignored.]

Posted by: b | Feb 8 2020 20:17 utc | 24

Posted by: RJPJR | Feb 10 2020 21:39 utc | 193

No agreement reached on China’s handover of coronavirus strain to Russia
Russian Deputy Minister of Health Sergei Kraevoi said on February 4 that the lack of a live coronavirus strain hinders Russia’s search for a vaccine against the disease
MOSCOW, February 10. /TASS/. China and Russia have not reached an agreement on the handover of the 2019-nCoV strain, head of the Russian Federal Service for the Oversight of Consumer Protection and Welfare Anna Popova told reporters on Monday.
"So far, such an agreement [on the handover of the 2019-nCoV strain] has not been reached," she told reporters. https://tass.com/society/1118519
I am unable to come up with a plausible suggestion as to why there would be any delay, unless the Chinese government is reluctant to allow Russia to investigate the specific details of the structure of the coronavirus. This delay certainly casts at least some suspicion on the other acts and/or omissions of the Chinese government associated with the epidemic.

Posted by: Bruce | Feb 10 2020 22:14 utc | 194

What is the breakdown of the ethnicity of the people that have died of the Coronavirus--particularly outside of China or Asia in general?

The article below suggests that Asians are more susceptible to the Coronavirus, while Whites are (curiously) less prone to catching this disease.

If this is true, I wonder why the virus is so ethnic-specific to Chinese or Asians--but not other groups like Whites?

Asians Far More Susceptible to Corona Virus than Other Races, More Likely to Die, Just Like SARS - REPORT
https://russia-insider.com/en/asians-far-more-susceptible-corona-virus-other-races-more-likely-die-just-sars-report/ri28241



Posted by: ak74 | Feb 10 2020 23:08 utc | 195

I find it interesting that in the case of news bias. MoA and it's regulars are familiar with the lengths gone to clear independents off platforms and control a dubious narrative. Continually gaslighting a version of events and hiding others. We know also that such is part of a greater objective in which the whole truth does not feature well, so we must be hyper-vigilant in anticipation of such a projected future and seek to counter those who will most easily enable it. 9/11 and all the demons that crawled from that crypt must have taught us that? Or the Black Hatting actions against Jeremy Corbyn & Bernie Saunders?

China air-blockade is sanctions by the backdoor.
Ethiopia to Tanzania still remain China-open (see last 24hrs on any flight tracker).
Africa/Latin America/Indonesia are without support, testing kits and containment.
This lack of action is virus break out for the rest of us.
There is no mobilisation, no UN or Nimitz & floating Hospital sent to 3rd world xxxx to aid in virus containment. So its coming, inevitably so, maybe this flu season maybe next. Though the virus can withstand warmer temperatures it seems most comfortable in the cold.

I just want more facts, and the fact we do get interrogated by the spectrum of intelligent minds we have here. Please, keep up the good work b and all.

Posted by: dennis | Feb 10 2020 23:17 utc | 196

Not a lot of mention about the Biolake complex in Wuhan hosting some of the leading pharmaceutical and biotech companies in the world.

The mortality rate in Wuhan dwarfs mortality rate outside of hubei province by an order of magnitude. Of course, maybe time equalizes this a bit but the mortality rate stats in Wuhan have actually declined since numbers were first reported, so not sure why we should expect the mortality rate outside China to increase.

In any event one scientist speculated that the Chinese in Wuhan were somehow sensitized to the virus. Some studies with animals show that after receiving a SARS-CoV vaccine rechallenge with the same virus sometime later led to serious effects due to short lived humoral immunity that allows for reinfection and then subsequent immune enhancement. This makes me wonder if the population of Wuhan was subject to a secret CoV vaccination trial, perhaps as part of the seasonal flu vaccination program. They did have a SARS vaccine that was in Phase II trials 10 years ago that fell off the radar


Hubei was relatively unscathed by SARS so the population was unlikely to have been sensitized by the SARS virus making it a good place to test the vaccine.

However, for the unvaccinated global population not previously sensitized by a prior SARS exposure or SARS vaccine, this is really just another cold virus.

We do know China and the world has a lot of pneumonia each year . According to a Lancet study About 100 million cases of viral community-acquired pneumonia occur every year in adults.
Assuming China is responsible for 1/7 of that thats 14 million pneumonia cases a year for China alone. One older study in adults in China almost 20 years ago , which included older adults up to age 94 years, found a case fatality rate of up 9.98% but I assume these numbers have declined with better care, at least among younger patients. Another study presented a pneumonia incidence for adults: 0.037 episodes per person-year for people ≥65 years of age . China has 140 million people over age 65, so thats about 5 million cases per year in a group that may have a mortality rate approaching 10%. So 500 , 000 deaths from pneumonia each year in older people and corona virus has caused about 1000 thus far most of whom are over 60

Another study in Shanghai had an incidence of 1.6% of the population coming down with pneumonia each year. If that incidence held for Wuhan that would be 160,000 pneumonia cases each year in a normal year. Most cases probably occur in the winter so call it 80,000 pneumonia cases each winter. Hmm.

As for the validity of tests being used for confirmation, given it was rushed to market without detailed studies, I expect they are overly sensitive and not specific, like early HIV tests were. Lots of false positives.

I did see China is no longer treating a patient as confirmed if they test positive but has no symptoms. This should help them keep the cfr up as patients will lie about mild symptoms to avoid quarantine. Or maybe they just realized the test was not very specific

Maybe there is no new virus at all. How would we know. Science today is as controlled as it was in Galileos day. Just a different religion and priests doing the controlling. Those who deny are heretics (denialist) and burned as witches , if not literally there careers are burned. That helps keep scientists in line. If they want to survive they play along

The motive behind the fraud, if thats what it is (remember this is speculation) , or at least overhype, would be related to exercising control over populations and perhaps reducing population, along with good old disaster capitalism.
.

Posted by: Pft | Feb 11 2020 0:30 utc | 197

@ak74 #209
Yet again, a study which looked at 5 total dead people, 1 of which was Asian, is being used to justify nCOV being deadlier for Asians. The dead person didn't even die of nCOV.
Such a study is utterly worthless for any type of ethnicity based extrapolation, or really for anything because of the ridiculously small sample size.

Posted by: c1ue | Feb 11 2020 0:33 utc | 198

b | Feb 9 2020 20:20 utc | 161:

I understand your reluctance in accepting the possibility of bioweapons as it's rather frightening but it cannot be ignored. We all know of the geopolitical tensions we're living in. The timing is just far too suspicious for me to ignore, and we all know that timing is everything in politics. If that isn't convincing enough for anyone, then let's look at the circumstances such as location and timing of these outbreaks.

Notice that India, a nation with similar population size to China, doesn't have these kinds outbreaks. The Indians do carry out practices (i.e. tossing cow dung at one another) that could cause one. RT news showed a short clip of it months ago. Let's look at the past: Pandemics That Changed History. Noticed the dates of WHEN these occurred; how far spread out on the timeline. Fast forward to today. Take note of the timing of the emergence of these outbreaks in China alone. Someone here (dorje I believe) posted a longer timeline of these outbreaks. My list was much shorter starting with the African Swine flu (2018), 2019-nCoV and 2020-H5N1 (as reported by Reuters). Is the Reuters H5N1 report fake news? We'll find out soon enough.


I ask, what is the probability of NATURAL outbreaks of dissimilar origins occurring within months apart in ONE country?


The reported low mortality rate does not dismiss the 2019-nCoV as a low-grade bioweapon. Survivors are needed to maintain Plausible Deniability; otherwise, a near absolute death rate will leave ZERO room for misinterpretation.

The one thing that I'm keeping my eye on is the ethnicity of the victims. Someone here posted an article of well known warhawks and celebrities musing on the idea of an ethnic specific bioweapon. There's no way that a naturally occurring virus would attack ONE ethnic group. Time will tell. Information will always be incomplete until after the fact.


The circumstances remind me of past industrial accidents in China. The first explosion occurred in Tianjin, I believe, and it was a BIG one where a US spy satellite recorded it. Washington wasted no time in reporting it. I ignored it because safety protocols isn't well practiced in China. And then another explosion occurred, followed by another. The third explosion caught my attention, and noticed Western MSM dropping the matter. I believe a total of FIVE explosions occurred across the nation about a week apart. My gut feeling is that there is some group traveling, likely in a vehicle, causing these explosions by taking advantage of the weak workplace safety protocols. No need to smuggle and plant explosives which will leave a residue as evidence.


Asking a similar question, what is the probability of such workplace "accidents" occurring about a week apart?


Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. Three times is enemy action.


Notice some of these asswipes couldn't help themselves in hiding their glee. The hubris of these retarded idiots believe they're immune from blowback such as mutations. And I can assure everyone here, the authorities have noticed the same PATTERNS that we're all seeing ourselves (some of us refuse to acknowledge it). It's one thing to kill off animals and it's another when it involves people. IMHO, a very big RED LINE was crossed. Retribution is coming. The question is when and how it will be carried out.


Perpetrators:

This is nearly impossible to determine and the investigation will take a long time. The list ranges from state actors to private individual/groups driven by simple greed or ideology. The question I have for those here that know, how easy is it to establish a bio-lab? I'm not interested in the step-by-step instructions for obvious reasons. I'm only interested in how easy is it for a wealthy private individual to acquire the needed equipment. AFAIK, there is little control/restrictions in place unlike the nuclear industry. Don't forget scientists themselves aren't apolitical, some may not have a functioning moral compass, and ALL have a price.

Some have suggested that this is a self-inflicted attack directed by government. Utter nonsense. Why? The Chinese authorities haven't identified the perpetrators unlike those with respect to 9/11 attacks. Hell, the Chinese authorities haven't concluded on what happened to MH370.


Hanlon's razor:

Yes, this also cannot be ignored. Some here have noted a bio-medical facility nearby in Wuhan. A leak from a careless employee? Possible. No one is perfect. IIRC, this facility did have foreign scientists (Canada?) working in it recently so there should be no mystery on what research they were conducting.

Posted by: Ian2 | Feb 11 2020 1:02 utc | 199

@ c1ue

What about the ethnicity (not nationality) of the people who have died of the coronavirus in general?

Is there any information on these ethnic-specific casualty numbers--particularly for nations outside of Asia/China?

If there isn't, why not?

Like SARS, Coronavirus has been framed as an "Asian/Chinese" disease, so it would be revealing to see if there is a greater susceptibility to the disease, even for people of Asian ethnic descent in the West.

Even the "American citizen" who just died of Coronavirus was of ethnic Chinese descent.

Posted by: ak74 | Feb 11 2020 1:16 utc | 200

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