Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
February 08, 2020

The Epidemic Recedes - Number Of New Coronavirus Cases In Decline

The novel Coronavirus (nCoV19) epidemic is a receding danger but its effects will stay with us for some time. Here is an update on the current situation.

Caixin reports (machine translation):

In general, with the increase in isolation and treatment work, the number of new suspected cases nationwide has decreased, and the number of new confirmed cases outside Hubei has fallen for 4 consecutive days. The situation of the new coronavirus epidemic situation may have improved. On the 7th, the first confirmed case appeared in only one city, and the number of newly cured cases exceeded the number of new deaths for 9 consecutive days, indicating that the epidemic was under control.

The graphic below shows the newly suspected cases per day (yellow) and the number of newly confirmed cases per day (red).


Source: Dxy - bigger

Newly suspected cases get tested and it takes about a day until they are 'converted' to confirmed cases or removed from the count. It makes therefore sense to combine those numbers and to show a total of new cases per day.

Graphic updated with February 8 data

Data source: National Health Commission of China
bigger

The new cases per day number in China stabilized at around 8,000 per day and is now sinking.

On February 7 the total number of confirmed cases in China during the nCov19 epidemic was at 34,546. 2,050 persons have recovered and have been discharged from hospitals. 722 people have died so far. That leaves 31,774 current confirmed infected persons of which 6,101 are in serious condition. There are 27,657 suspected cases for a current total of some 60,000 suspected and confirmed cases.

The Chinese authorities go to great length to find those who had contact with persons who have been infected. 345,498 people have been identified as having had close contact with infected patients. 189,660 of them are now under medical observation.

The epidemic is still a local Chinese affair. Of 34,956 global cases 34,664 are in China.

Of the 32.000 current confirmed cases 25.000 are in Hubei province. The provincial capital Wuhan alone has 13,600 cases.

Health services and personal in Wuhan were extremely stressed (recommended) during January. The death rate there (blue) topped at 5% of the cases before it came down below 3%. The death rate of nCoV19 cases in all of China (yellow) is now about 2%. The rest-of-the-globe rate (grey), with probably too few total cases to be meaningful, is at 0.17%.


Source: Dxy - bigger

A number of anti-virus medications are now being tested on the current cases. Some combinations seem to help which will further lower the death rate.

Wuhan city is finally getting all the help that is possible. Medical personnel from the army has been ordered into the city. Patients there get classified in different categories and are put into different hospitals:

A total of 1,600 beds in Leishenshan (Thunder God Mountain) Hospital will be delivered on Feb 8, said Hu Yabo, deputy mayor of Wuhan at a press conference on Feb 7.

The city already has 8,895 beds in 28 designated hospitals for patients infected with the novel coronavirus, and 1,000 beds in Huoshenshan Hospital, which are being used for severe and critically ill patients.

There are 4,250 beds for patients with mild symptoms in three public-facility-turned temporary hospitals in the city, which will increase by 5,400 beds in the future.

There will soon be 21,000 beds capacity for the currently 13,600 confirmed cases. Only some 15% of those will become severe.

The World Health Organization (WHO) said that 88% of those who died were over 60 years old. 76% of the dead were men and 70% of the dead had underlying diseases. They were most likely heavy smokers.

Few children get infected or, if they do, only show mild symptoms:

“The median age of patients is between 49 and 56 years,” according to a report published on Wednesday in JAMA. “Cases in children have been rare.”

So why aren’t more children getting sick?

“My strong, educated guess is that younger people are getting infected, but they get the relatively milder disease,” said Dr. Malik Peiris, chief of virology at the University of Hong Kong, who has developed a diagnostic test for the new coronavirus.

It is still unclear if the virus can be spread by a person before that person shows symptoms. A German study which said so has been retracted and new Japanese study which says so seems dubious and is unverified.

During the time of the Lunar New Year festivities some 400 million people in China travel to see their family. Many factories shut down for two or three weeks. While this years traveling increased the geographic spreading of the epidemic, the closing down of factories probably decreased the number of contacts people might otherwise have had.

China's economy is severely effected by the epidemic.

After the Lunar New Year on January 25 property sales stayed at zero instead of increasing towards their normal height.


Source: Capital Economics - bigger

Road congestion is at a record low.


Source: Capital Economics - bigger

The Chinese authorities will soon have to balance public safety with the necessity of economic activities. They are likely to stay cautious. They will want to make sure that the epidemic is under total control before allowing a return to normal life.

Further shutdowns of factories and curfews will interrupt supply chains and will affect the global economy. This will likely speed up the  'decoupling' from China which the U.S. under Trump promotes.

---
Previous Moon of Alabama pieces on the novel cornavirus.

Feb 1 2020 - Novel Coronavirus Defies Conspiracy Theories As Data Shows Its Coming Decline
Jan 25 2020 - The Coronavirus - No Need To Panic

Posted by b on February 8, 2020 at 17:18 UTC | Permalink

Comments
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thanks for this b.... your quote "The Chinese authorities will soon have to balance public safety with the necessity of economic activities. They are likely to stay cautious. They will want to make sure that the epidemic is under total control before allowing a return to normal life." it reminds me of how messed up the world is where economic activities are always interfering with our priorities... i was just saying this on the boeing thread - when money is an important priority - people make wrong decisions..

Posted by: james | Feb 8 2020 17:25 utc | 1

China's economy is severely effected by the epidemic.

China wisely decided to take extraordinary measures at an early stage. If they hadn't done so, the impact on the people and the economy would've ultimately been much much greater.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Feb 8 2020 18:02 utc | 2

Isn’t that interesting. We just happen to have an epidemic when economic activity comes to a halt anyway.

Posted by: Bere Rabbit | Feb 8 2020 18:19 utc | 3

"This will likely speed up the 'decoupling' from China which the U.S. under Trump promotes."

The whole talking-point about 'decoupling' borders on fantasy. China is the supply-chain capital of the world; while US manufacturing has been gutted and will not return without ginormous initiative for industrial planning by the US govt, which is highly unlikely given the current political ideology.

The only meaningful area we can speak of 'decoupling' is in military manufacturing, such as US attempts to sever dual-use drones purchases from Chinese DJI; and to move semi-conductor production back to the US, for example by trying to pressure TSMC to re-locate to the US. The purpose of such military decoupling is to minimize disruption in the case of a US-China hot war.

In the larger economic picture, there is no meaningful way to de-couple from China, for the US or any major economic power such as Germany for that matter, not just because China manufactures so much but also because it is the biggest purchaser of goods and services; indeed is the largest trading partner for most countries in the world.

Posted by: occupatio | Feb 8 2020 18:19 utc | 4

Undoubtedly JR, but I can't help but notice how the extraordinary measures taken by China were described as both "draconian" and "late" at the same time.

China is not facing a deadly outbreak of a corona virus alone, the world is facing an also deadly outbreak of rumour induced stupidity the viral cause being lead by "social" networks.

Posted by: Vasco da Gama | Feb 8 2020 18:21 utc | 5

Thanks b.

we are wading through Incredible hyper-reporting. One news site in Olso, Norway has a "professor" reporting 50,000 infections per day. Bet he does not read, speak Mandarin or Cantonese.

We are seeing disruptions in supply chain - the just-in-time delivery on which global economy relies will be more pronounced in another month. [household goods to chemical, medical products] A walk down the isle or factory floor reads "Product of China" : "Made in China"

By Industry Sector at link


Production disruptions would largely affect household goods, hi-tech goods and textile industries where China plays a core role in the global supply chain. Production disruptions in these industries would have an adverse effect on the global supply chain as companies would struggle to find alternative suppliers.[.]

Posted by: Likklemore | Feb 8 2020 18:44 utc | 6

"The Chinese authorities will soon have to balance public safety with the necessity of economic activities...They will want to make sure that the epidemic is under total control before allowing a return to normal life."

This speaks volumes on what they consider their top priority. I doubt the 'total control' part, but this will take several more months before things return back to 'normal'. Regardless if this outbreak is due to human error or malice, I hope the root cause is investigated and not covered up.

Posted by: Ian2 | Feb 8 2020 18:48 utc | 7

400 Million under quarantine but everything is great, several ships with multiple people infected, but everything is getting better. Either you are getting paid to calm people down or you have no knowledge of Infections, Pandemics etc.
Chinese government has forced people to hide the infections for fear of being taken to Quarantine Facilities. They have a limit on how many people they can test in a day. Dr indicates that 30% of Hospital workers are infected. This is not getting better this is already out of control.

Posted by: Robert | Feb 8 2020 18:58 utc | 8

I imagine Raul over at The Automatic Earth isn't gonna like the sanity of your post today.

Posted by: Rich | Feb 8 2020 19:00 utc | 9

@comment 6
Professor N.Ferguson, Imperial College of London, went on record February 3rd stating that the real rate of infection is now 50,000/day.
No, it is not fake news. It is the analysis of a scientist who showed serious concern in the interview.
The Chinese are lying. Their numbers are not real. They are numbers designed to massage international opinion. They intend on containing this via martial law-no freedom of movement=stay at home and get sick with your family.
How many are dead? If you believe Tencent, then 50,000 are dead and nearly 250, 000 are infected.
Yet, for some reason, there is a determined, wilful blindness to what is actually happening in China that is beyond dishonest. It is wilfully and blatant deception.

Posted by: dorje | Feb 8 2020 19:25 utc | 10

All that stuff reminds me so much of the "climate change" (we're guilty off of course) thing. The target here was the chinese, I feel chinese these days.

Posted by: AB | Feb 8 2020 19:30 utc | 11

Concerns expressed about what happens if the disease gets into Africa on any scale -

http://www.golemxiv.co.uk/2020/02/3225/

Posted by: Mr Peter Wright | Feb 8 2020 19:31 utc | 12

@Robert comment 8

Sorry, I missed your comment. Thank you for being another realist.

One additional cause of concern I have is that the status quo in China is a mix of old industrial processes (brass, metalwork, etc.)with new (plastics,etc.). According to scientists who monitor air quality in China, the official government numbers are buggery. There is ample corruption. This renders the average person over 40 more vulnerable to nCoV as they have had decades of exposure.
If the Chinese routinely lie about air quality, the idea we can trust them on a pandemic is just laughable.
This is the third cheering squad article for the People's Republic and it is blatantly dishonest.
I am only posting because the truth must be told. In truth, I am disgusted at the lies posted here. The data is all government data: not believable.

People in Wuhan have been left to die at home. The government went around dragging people into the quarantine camps where, so far, their is no medical care let alone proper sanitation. They don't have enough testing, supplies, masks, etc.
What's next: cholera?

Posted by: dorje | Feb 8 2020 19:37 utc | 13

It seems to me that a handful of cases, it would be a problem.

When you have thousand of infected around a country and some new ones popping up around the globe. You no longer have a problem. Its out of your or anyones control.

Hope I am wong.

B seems to tend to downplay things.
Perhaps thats a good thing.

Posted by: jared | Feb 8 2020 19:43 utc | 14

@dorje
the only epidemic here is the spread of fake news by purveyors such as yourself

Posted by: occupatio | Feb 8 2020 19:47 utc | 15

From WSJ:

"Japan also said on Saturday that one of its citizens had died in a Wuhan hospital from a suspected case of the coronavirus. But the Japanese Foreign Ministry said that based on information it received from the Chinese authorities, it could not confirm whether the man, who was in his 60s, had been infected with the new virus. The ministry called the cause of death viral pneumonia."

Nope cornonavirus cases are going down, but "viral pneumonia" cases are through the roof..s/

Posted by: Notsure | Feb 8 2020 19:52 utc | 16

Taking people from homes and placing them in quarantine?
A lot of people. Too many to care for.
I would not describe that as breath-taking, not in a positive way.
I have the impression that respectable and knowledgable people are finding this worrisome.

Posted by: jared | Feb 8 2020 19:57 utc | 17

ITT: Empire fanbois trying to hype the impact of their "team's" latest weapon.

It is the same people and motivation behind the loud assertions that America killed "thousands and thousands of Russians!" when bombing in Dier ez-Zor. Just masturbatory wishcasting.

Posted by: William Gruff | Feb 8 2020 19:58 utc | 18

Re:occupatio | Feb 8 2020 19:47 utc | 15

From the internet "Dorje is a Tibetan name for boys meaning Indomitable". Reading unspun truth about China from dorje is unlikely.

Posted by: tucenz | Feb 8 2020 20:02 utc | 19

Robert @ 8;

Do you rely on the BLS - Bureau of Labor Statistics?

droje @10;

Professor N.Ferguson, Imperial College of London, went on record February 3rd stating that the real rate of infection is now 50,000/day.

did you read his was a computer modelling? Garbage in; garbage out. The guy is guessing and fear mongering.
"My best guess now is" said he.


“My best guess now is perhaps 100,000 cases right now,” Neil Ferguson, a public health expert at Imperial College in London who’s been estimating the disease’s spread for the World Health Organization, told the Guardian. He thinks the actual number could be anywhere between 30,000 and 200,000. [.]

He thinks! That is quite a range? But let's run with the higher number.

Garbage in, garbage out.

there was a time when westerners thought China was all rice paddies and bowl hats. No factories, no technology, no industries. 1992.
Fast Forward China is now our warehouse.
China is at the forefront of:
medical research: Check the link @ 6
technology: supercomputers 5 G left west trailing to catch up.

Posted by: Likklemore | Feb 8 2020 20:03 utc | 20

"Guangzhou, the capital of China's southwestern Guangdong Province and the country's fifth largest city with nearly 15 million residents, has just joined the ranks of cities imposing a mandatory lockdown on all citizens, effectively trapping residents inside their homes, with only limited permission to venture into the outside world to buy essential supplies.

The decision means 3 provinces, 60 cities and 400 million people are now facing China's most-strict level of lockdown as Beijing struggles to contain the coronavirus outbreak as the virus has already spread to more than 2 dozen countries."

400 million quarantined, but yeah, nothing to see here..s/

Posted by: Notsure | Feb 8 2020 20:06 utc | 21

Occupatio @ 15:

I looked up Dr N Ferguson whom Dorje refers to @ 10 and discovered at the RMS blog @ www.rms.com that Dr Neil Ferguson obtained his PhD in theoretical physics at Oxford University and specialises in infectious disease modelling using sparse observational data at Imperial College in London under WHO auspices.

Posted by: Jen | Feb 8 2020 20:07 utc | 22

@Robert @dorje

Lancet article "Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak..." supports your position. Respected medical journal maintaining a series of resource articles on nCoV. Also see Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of 99 cases of nCoV. Note that recently confirmed as pandemic by WHO.
Anecdotal reporting indicates that Dr. Fauci, US virologist with CDC is currently in China, WHO is sending in teams. Would anticipate perhaps better epidemiological info in upcoming weeks, with better detailed methodology, particularly as regards missing data which in this situation is crucial.

Posted by: Clio Blue | Feb 8 2020 20:12 utc | 23

@dorje and others.

Epidemics is a numbers game.

I see no reason to doubt the Chinese government numbers as it is in THEIR best interest to get this thing under control. They have no way to benefit from hiding any higher numbers. It would not work as the epidemic would continue to spread. How would China's government profit from that?

People in Wuhan have been left to die at home. The government went around dragging people into the quarantine camps where, so far, their is no medical care let alone proper sanitation. They don't have enough testing, supplies, masks, etc.

In fact there are police and others working door to door to take peoples' temperature. Those who have significant symptoms will have to see a doctor and may get quarantined. Those places where that happens are large sports or conference centers which have sanitations for mass events. Medical personal has been deployed and is available where needed.

Test kits are now available. The WHO alone distributed at least a quarter million. China produces them en mass. There might be still be a lack in qualified laboratory personal and laboratory space.

It took some time to recognize the danger of this outbreak. The local doctors (see recommended piece) were pretty fast in getting it. It took some time for that to filter upward through the bureaucracy. China is country of 1.4 billion people. A sudden local increase of pneumonia death of some 20 or 50 people takes time to be recognized at the top level.


After that happened China did all the right things. Identified the virus, alarmed the global public, isolated the epidemic, moved all possible resources to the response.

The H1N1 broke out in the U.S. and Mexico in April 2009. It took President Obama until October 2009 to declare it a national emergency. By that time it had already spread worldwide and in the end killed some 17,000 people. What do you think would have happened if nCoV19 would have emerged in the U.S.?


Posted by: b | Feb 8 2020 20:17 utc | 24

https://www.darpa.mil/work-with-us/opportunities

Posted by: Headhunter | Feb 8 2020 20:26 utc | 25

All this talk of 50000 new cases per day is nonsense.


The numbers for Hong Kong and Macao are compiled independently from the Chinese government. These figures are currently 26 for HK and 10 for Macao.


These figures are completely in line with the official Chinese figues on a province by province basis, where Guangdong, for example, now has 1095 infections according to official figures.

All of These exaggerated numbers are either hysteria, clickbait or propaganda.

Posted by: clickkid | Feb 8 2020 20:27 utc | 26

yes of course We are the fools to worry. Doesn't matter what my field of study informed me of (Molecular Biology), Don't Worry. Doesn't matter what I learned in my last company selling infectious disease testing kits, Don't Worry. Don't Worry about the Massive quarantine in China, nothing to see here. It is all getting better, everyone will be back to work in a few days. Seems that this site is full of Optimists more concerned about Israel and Iraq and Airplanes than something as real as an infection.

Posted by: Robert | Feb 8 2020 20:48 utc | 27

"Israel isn't a real country!"

OK, we agree there.

"Airplanes are not real!"

Hmm... I've traveled in them many times. I'm pretty sure the intense discomfort wasn't imaginary.

"China can't control an infectious disease better than America can!"

They make better telecommunications gear and better trains, so why not?

But you have reason to be concerned. If this virus isn't actually tailored specifically for Asian people then it will eventually break out in the West where it will rampage through society like herpes on prom night. But it is not doing that... curious....

Posted by: William Gruff | Feb 8 2020 20:58 utc | 28

If you live on an island, you are right to be worried. If not, it seems clear that most of the dead are mainly elderlies or people with related pathologies. The case of the medical staff is worrying but would be related to the fact you can be re-infected.
Whatever you think of China, the measures they took are indeed the only ones one could efficiently come up with.
This is a big test for the current hyper consumerist hubris all over the world. It was meant to happen unless you really believe we can use a number of earth's resources per year.

Posted by: Mina | Feb 8 2020 20:59 utc | 29

Robert @27: ... Massive quarantine in China, nothing to see here.

The response we are "seeing" is appropriate to the threat, not an indication of the current level of disease.

We should all be thankful that China has the capability to act with such resolve. As b points out, other countries - like USA - do not.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Feb 8 2020 21:04 utc | 30

Thanks b! Asia Times has an article with some interesting facts on fatality rates, virus longevity in different environment (it likes cold temps), etc. Their bottom line was it was like a severe cold, but lasted longer.

https://www.asiatimes.com/2020/02/article/how-lethal-is-the-wuhan-virus/

Posted by: Michael | Feb 8 2020 21:09 utc | 31

B @ 24, Jackrabbit @ 30:

If you go over to www.cdc.gov, you will see that over a 4-month period from 1 October 2019 to 1 February 2020, at least 22 million Americans caught influenza and at least 12,000 have died from it.That works out to 3,000 deaths per month. And these are conservative estimates.

That sure puts the Wuhan-origin coronavirus infection scare into some perspective.

Posted by: Jen | Feb 8 2020 21:16 utc | 32

This c-virus itself is a nothing-burger then? (It would still be good to hear from that research scientist and that lab in Wuhan though. What were they up to? What are they researching and was there an "accident"?)

Does the media hysteria, travel bans and the like fulfill a bigger purpose? It all does make for diversion of attention from other developments. And, of course, we have yet to experience the secondary consequences and fall out.

Posted by: Siotu | Feb 8 2020 21:20 utc | 33

Compare H1N1, estimates of 28,000 dead, sloppy attempts to isolate carriers, started in US and went around the world.
Or for that matter the current year's flu in US, 22-31 million flu illnesses, 12-30,000 deaths
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm

Posted by: Michael Droy | Feb 8 2020 21:25 utc | 34

Robert @27 and Dorje The Indomitable can have their opinions, yet B's empirical analysis makes far more sense than the statements they have posted. Why indeed would the Chinese gov't lie about the numbers of infections if the infection rates were as high as R and D have claimed? Such high numbers would quickly expose the lie, and the Chinese gov't would then be completely discredited, and hence the reason to lie in this case is vastly reduced, as our host has pointed out.

As for Prof Ferguson's epidemiological model: I have an MSc degree in Mathematics, and I've worked with plenty of epidemiologists, trying to implement their often vague ideas into valid mathematical models. Such models can only be back-validated (and climate models suffer from the same problem), meaning their various parameters and so-called "fudge factors" (that is really the term!) must be adjusted so that their predictions agree with data from past epidemics. Since every epidemic is different from every other in often quite subtle ways, epidemiologists "specialise" in fudging a model's parameters (hence the term "fudge factor") so that the model now agrees with historical data. Yet why would current epidemics always behave like past epidemics? No epidemiologist I have asked was ever able to answer this question with the hard empirical reasoning that is science's only guarantee, and hence the predictions are really not all that trustworthy.

Posted by: Theophrastus | Feb 8 2020 21:45 utc | 35

Model this: as of today there were 343 2019-nCoV cases reported OUTSIDE China. There is exactly ONE death recorded OUTSIDE China in the Phillipines, or a fatality rate of .3%.

Now, I'm including HK as part of China, but if you disagree then there are exactly TWO fatal cases, or a rate of .6%. Hardly apocalyptic.

Considering that U.S. patients were identified over two weeks ago, according to hysterical nutcases we should be seeing an explosion of new patients from cross-infection. Where are they?

Crickets ...

Posted by: Trisha | Feb 8 2020 21:51 utc | 36

Dorje, Robert, et al
Your point of view is noted.
It is 9 February. Let's review on 1st April and see how things are then.
If there is pandemic, then everyone will need to apologise to you for not listening.
If the epidemic has been controlled and the infection rate has dropped to low levels, then I guess you'll admit that you got it wrong.
Sound fair?

Posted by: Deltaeus | Feb 8 2020 21:55 utc | 37

Siotu -perhaps part of a long-term effort to "other" and vilify the Chinese, in the eventuality of a hot war where you will be required to die fighting them.

Posted by: Winston | Feb 8 2020 21:58 utc | 38

I see no reason to doubt the Chinese government numbers as it is in THEIR best interest to get this thing under control. They have no way to benefit from hiding any higher numbers. It would not work as the epidemic would continue to spread. How would China's government profit from that?

That's a non sequitur.
It fails to demonstrate that the government needs to tell the true numbers. It only demonstrates the obvious: govt needs to know the correct numbers in order to be able to act accordingly and effectively.

Furthermore, no govt action would work if there is panic or social trouble. For that reason, lying on the numbers may be a necessary tool for the victory against the epidemic.

On the other side I don't believe the Tencent numbers. Do somebody knows the source of that story? From my quick and dirty search, it looks like it was a Taiwanese newspaper which is regularly smearing China.

On the other side of the other side, I give some credit to the Lancet article. Some commentators went away with it by saying: "It's simulation, and you know that garbage in - garbage out ". Did he notice there was no garbage in the input data? They were 1) numbers of cases outside China and 2)numbers of travelers who went outside China.
Let's say 200 repatriated from Wuhan to France, one week ago. According to the Lancet paper, one would have expected one contaminated amongst the repatriated. And we got exactly what was expected. On the next batch of 250 repatriated there was no cases.

To conclude:
- the thesis of the correctness of officially released Chinese data has no strong argument for it.
- the Lancet is probably overestimating, maybe 2 times. The reality would still be several times above official numbers.

By the way, one key witness of the skripal-like story of a Chinese spy stealing the virus in Canada will not be able to help. Dr. Frank Plummer just died unexpectedly...

Posted by: Parisian Guy | Feb 8 2020 22:00 utc | 39

Posted by: Theophrastus | Feb 8 2020 21:45 utc | 35


[.] "Since every epidemic is different from every other in often quite subtle ways, epidemiologists "specialise" in fudging a model's parameters (hence the term "fudge factor") so that the model now agrees with historical data. Yet why would current epidemics always behave like past epidemics? No epidemiologist I have asked was ever able to answer this question with the hard empirical reasoning that is science's only guarantee, and hence the predictions are really not all that trustworthy."

Kudos. Thank you.
In grabbing "numbers" what has been overlooked by most is the fact that the Prof Ferguson said he was "estimating" "guessing'

And there is that bit of anti-China seeping through.

b reminded us of the 2009 swine flu. Fear mongering went with that one too. Governments bought millions of doses of vaccines, months after some 4.7 million vaccines were destroyed. It's only money.

Posted by: Likklemore | Feb 8 2020 22:15 utc | 40

If nCoV is indeed a bio weapon, a Frankenstein entity bioengineered by man:
http://stateofthenation.co/?p=6103
And if this came from outside of China, then, I suspect the Chinese gov are indeed lying.

It is like in a war. The enemy fires some heavy duty weapons at you and you try hide the effect of it. Not to mention that revealing the true situation could get the gov toppled. This could be to big of a loss for them to remain on top.

Posted by: Nicucino | Feb 8 2020 22:23 utc | 41

If, during the past month, 500 million people worldwide have listened to 2.5 minutes of news about the Corona virus daily, then the time spent is equal to 1000 lives of 70 years each. In other words, the news about the Corona virus is costing us more lives than the epidemic.

Posted by: passerby | Feb 8 2020 22:23 utc | 42

Jrabbit @ 2 said;"China wisely decided to take extraordinary measures at an early stage. If they hadn't done so, the impact on the people and the economy would've ultimately been much much greater."

Yep, whether or not you care for China's politics, their Draconian measures, I feel, are necessary. At this time round' the globe, IMO no other Gov. could handle what they're dealing with.

Thanks b, and I hope your're right about the downward trend.

Posted by: ben | Feb 8 2020 22:27 utc | 43

'What do you think would have happened if nCoV19 would have emerged in the U.S.?" b@24
That is the big question: the US is totally oriented towards maximising profits for the healthcare and pharmaceutical industries. There are large areas in which half or more of the population is uninsured and thus beyond the purview of doctors and other practitioners. All infrastructure including those vital to public health are in an unprecedented state of disrepair and collapse.
Jen @32 goes some way to answering the question. Relying on a compliant propaganda apparatus masquerading as news media the authorities would lie, there would be massive migrations towards 'safer areas.' And then the killing would start.... Among the first victims would independent sources of information.

Posted by: bevin | Feb 8 2020 22:39 utc | 44

I agree with b in most of his points.

I just disagree with the way b (and some other posters) calculate the death rate. We cannot just divide the current number of deaths with the current number of cases. There is a certain time span from the point where the virus is confirmed until the patient dies. For example famous Dr. Li was hospitalized the 12th of January and just died last Thursday. For older patients this time span may be shorter, but the average will still be some days.

If you calculate the rate based on the official WHO reports (numbers for china), you will get the following results:

0 days: 2.09%
5 days: 4.19%
10 days: 12.06%

The final death rate can only be determined when everything is over. I personally expect a mortality similar to SARS.

Posted by: Alex | Feb 8 2020 22:39 utc | 45

@ passerby | Feb 8 2020 22:23 utc | 42

LOLOLOL. Soft kill meme virus.

Posted by: Lurk | Feb 8 2020 22:40 utc | 46

The economic blowback will be the same regardless of the true scale of the epidemic. It will take as long to ratchet up production lines again as they have been down. That means that the supply-chain issues are only going to get worse even if the scale of the epidemic is decreasing. Countries like mine (Australia) will feel it both ways (lower demand for commodities, more expensive parts/supply), and then some: Australia's economy is baked into China's, especially in the service sector—$34b/annum tertiary education sector, 25% of tourist market, with the added effect that Chinese tourists outspend the next highest spenders (those from the US) by 3 to 1. At the university I work at, 6000 Chinese students cannot return to Australia to commence the first semester of the year (beginning Feb 24). One can only imagine the loss of fees, accomodation spending, per diem spending in local businesses, etc. Australia will not lift the travel ban until they are absolutely sure—and if there is such uncertainty about the true scale of the epidemic or the reliability of the CCP reporting, then the travel ban will last longer than is necessary. There are fears here that this will finally tip Australia into recession.

Which raises a further question, linked to scale: Is the exaggerated response a calculated pretext for decoupling? I wonder whether our government is using the opportunity to precipitate an economic crisis for which it would be otherwise blamed. The collateral damage is going to be extensive. Universities in Australia, who have lost almost half their public funding in the last 25 years, and who are utterly dependent on Chinese patronage, are soiling themselves as we speak. It won't matter in the end whether it was a real or fake epidemic, the 'contagion' (as they say in financial doublespeak) has already begun.

Posted by: Patroklos | Feb 8 2020 22:42 utc | 47

Dr. Li was hospitalized the 12th of January and just died

Dr. Li, the whistle blower who warned his superiors of the new strain of virus in early December only to get arrested for his troubles because the Chinese govt is more interested in protecting their secrets rather than their people.

Just heard this for the upteenth time on FOX from a flunkie from the FDD. Is this true or an urban myth being used for our info. war against China?

FWIW the Saker has an article which has a completely different take on this issue ... China’s virus response has been ‘breathtaking’
http://thesaker.is/chinas-virus-response-has-been-breathtaking/

Posted by: Christian J Chuba | Feb 8 2020 22:49 utc | 48

Women are the majority within 8,310 volunteer health workers in Wuhan, and the vast majority are militants of the Communist Party coming from 29 Chinese regions.

Such are the 'war wounds' of Chinese nurses who relentlessly fight the coronavirus epidemic

The World Health Organization has said publicly that it is "impressed" by the Chinese response to the coronavirus.

On the 29th, in Geneva, María Van Der Kerkhove, a researcher at the Pasteur Institute (France), one of the main epidemiologists of the World Health Organization and Executive Director of the WHO Health Emergencies Program, told the press that:

- One of the reasons why the growth in coronavirus diagnoses has been so rapid is because the Chinese government had published a complete genome mapping of the new variant a few days after the initial outbreak, which made the diagnosis much easier .

- China and Chinese scientists have probably performed the fastest characterization of a new pathogen in history, and that was immediately shared.

- Historically it is unprecedented that the entire genome sequence of a new virus be published a few days after the first appearance of the virus.

- China is doing the right thing, and is responding massively. We are certain of the absolute, relentless and focused determination of the Chinese government to put the health of people in China above anything else.

Several of the questions asked were about the "transparency" of the Chinese government and whether it gave reliable information. The answer was anthological: "It has been of a state of art, from very early, in an extremely impressive quantity and with constant updates since December 31".

And so that there were no doubts, Tedros Adhanom, WHO Director General said: "The detailed knowledge of President Xi Jinping and the Ministers of Health and Foreign Affairs has left me very encouraged and impressed. This is for me a kind of leadership very rare. The level of commitment [of the leadership] in China is incredible. I will praise China again and again because its actions have indeed helped reduce the spread of the new coronavirus to other countries. We will tell the truth and that is the truth".

Posted by: Sasha | Feb 8 2020 22:55 utc | 49

Maybe Dr. Li was a bad example, as he is used from both sides for propaganda purposes. Maybe he didn't exist, maybe he's still alive... Sorry for that. But it doesn't change the fact that it lasts some days from hospitalization until death.

Posted by: Alex | Feb 8 2020 22:59 utc | 50

All reports and remarks about a Case Fatality Rate of 2% or less are nonsense.
After infection diagnosis, median time to death (if death occurs) was reported to be around two weeks, and might even be longer.

Implication: you have to compare accumulated deaths as of today with total infections two weeks ago. Prof. Ferguson mentioned this as well. Kindly ask B and others to consider this methodical approach. It seems to be very important to get a more realistic feeling for the CFR. This virus is very dangerous.

Do the math, numbers here:
Coronavirus Update (Live)

Posted by: gkbw | Feb 8 2020 23:01 utc | 51

Great to hear the epidemic is over. Too bad we lost Hubei.

Posted by: Fly | Feb 8 2020 23:04 utc | 52

@Alex, Re: Dr Li

Don't take it personally Alex, I am genuinely curious about the story of Dr. Li. It's one of those stories that popped up all over the MSM and like the Uighurs I am wondering about its pedigree (not blaming you :)). The CIA goons have been at this a long time, it's the one thing they are good at. Maybe it is true but it has a strange ring to it. It feels made up but who knows?

Posted by: Christian J Chuba | Feb 8 2020 23:17 utc | 53

I’m guessing b, that you are an old timey maoist or just reflexive anti-what (?), maybe any point of view in western society. Your articles on China seem to depart from your usual highly regarded ( by me) standard.

Posted by: Ed | Feb 8 2020 23:18 utc | 54

"Newly suspected cases get tested and it takes about a day until they are 'converted' to confirmed cases or removed from the count. It makes therefore sense to combine those numbers and to show a total of new cases per day."

Sorry b, I do not get it, can you explain why do you add the numbers? It is resulting in a fictive number, counting confirmed cases double time, once as unconfirmed and again as confirmed case.

As example, if we have 100 suspected cases per day of which 60 are confirmed next day, after ten days we would have 540 (9x60) confirmed cases +100 suspected to be confirmed from last day and not a total of 1600?
We do have 1000 suspected cases, 900 that have been analysed and 100 pending, but still not 1600?

I don't see the usefulness in adding the numbers? Or maybe I missed something?

Posted by: LP | Feb 8 2020 23:27 utc | 55

Nope cornonavirus cases are going down, but "viral pneumonia" cases are through the roof..s/

Posted by: Notsure | Feb 8 2020 19:52 utc | 16

Like the 5 wrapped bodies in the back of this van : Coronavirus pandemic what is Really going on! . Do you think those bodies will be tested for nCoV2019, or will they be burned without autopsy and listed as death by pneumonia?

b, do you really think this scene is from a movie? If so, please indicate which TV show or movie, because that scene is one scary scene! I would love to be shown it is not real. Anyone? Scary if not real, downright terrifying if it is!

Posted by: an on or miss | Feb 8 2020 23:31 utc | 56

Winston

I am not sure that is the reason. Does anyone really want to have a war with China? Even so, why would the Chinese govt carry out policies inside of China to encourage other countries to want to go to war with China?

==

My interest is more along these lines.

China has been experiencing outbreaks of unrest. There have been significant increases in active protests against the govt within China over recent times. This is most clearly visible at a local level. Now we are not talking about a civil war or a colour revolution type of deal (although there are those who would encourage such to develop if they could). Presently whatever outbreaks of protest or unrest that have been experienced are not a collective nationwide uprising of discontent or anything near what is transpiring throughout Western Europe or the USA. Not like that, although things may well change- too soon to tell. Anyway, the serious expressions of public dissatisfaction started in the regions but are now evident in larger centres of population, even in the cities. There are sporadic incidents occurring with increasing frequency and severity. This doesn't get reported often outside of China (and not in China pretty much at all), but it is occurring. There are serious issues which a-brewing they be.

The issue for the Communist Government is that they rely on everyone pretty much ignoring the well-known corruption and malfeasance and the titanic Red Ponzi scheme they sit atop. The expectation holds so long as the average person experiences his personal circumstances and wealth increasing. So far, so good. The expectation has held. It's analogous to a deal between two parties, as in "I'll overlook your moral shortcomings, naughtiness (well OK, criminality) and your general deleterious nature so long as you make sure I am doing well and things go well for me. If this situation is fundamentally altered, then the denizens of govt know there will be trouble. When circumstance change, when people have developed expectations which then are unrealised, or worse, become completely unrealisable, well, the Communist Party is in deepest crisis trouble as its corruptions, incompetences and malfeasances will no longer be overlooked. They become focal points for dissatisfaction and consequent unrest. Then it is on for one and all.

So far the scale of dissatisfaction and discomfort is small enough that the arrangement, the relationship between the two parties, holds and appears stable. Questions arise though. What if it is not really stable? What if conditions can't be kept as they are at present? Would it be a possibility that a decline in general circumstance for the people could be managed via appeal to an "unexpected emergency" (like a virus or two)? Would that allow certain policies and restrictions to be applied as a "prevention", to quarantine popular unrest due to economic problems, before popular unrest gets established? After all, if not an extraordinary thing like a disease or natural disaster, then a remaining alternative is to look for some external factor as an excuse. Traditionally that has been hostilities with the external. Trouble is this means a war with some other country and that, in these times, is exceptionally dangerous. As Chancellor Hitler discovered, once started a war is difficult to control.

It is most difficult to see what gifts the future will bring. That is probably why it holds so much interest. Paraphrasing- we live in interesting times. The developments in the immediate future are likely to be even more interesting still. Meanwhile, watch for the secondary consequences and the immediate fall out from the c-virus scare.

Posted by: Siotu | Feb 8 2020 23:33 utc | 57

15
He's a charlatan passing off my late brothers work as his own.He doesn't even understand it and certainly cant
emulate it, there may not be anyone yet that can, but my brothers work has a loyal following in Russia.

Posted by: winston2 | Feb 8 2020 23:43 utc | 58

b says: "I see no reason to doubt the Chinese government numbers as it is in THEIR best interest to get this thing under control. They have no way to benefit from hiding any higher numbers. It would not work as the epidemic would continue to spread. How would China's government profit from that?"

It's not like there isn't a precedent..

SARS crisis: China admits its big, deadly lie

https://www.smh.com.au/national/sars-crisis-china-admits-its-big-deadly-lie-20030421-gdgmut.html

"Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me.."

Posted by: Notsure | Feb 8 2020 23:45 utc | 59

Lot of apocalyptic writers around here. Not so surprising if you consider the state of mind in rest of world. What is the point in China bashing? It all reminds me of anthrax scare. If this virus is been made, i know where it did come from.

Posted by: rico rose | Feb 9 2020 0:05 utc | 60

@ b et al
Your faith in China's numbers are based on......?
China put 400 million people under Martial Law. Shut down 80% of their economy.
All for a flu that hasn't killed 1000 people yet. I get it. The CCP overlords have discovered opium they got from some visiting Iranians and have lost their senses, right?
Give us a break. Everybody who tries to draw attention to how bad this is gets attacked, screamed at and shouted down.
The real death rate is waaay higher.
The CCP admitted a 4.9% death rate.
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3873016

If reality doesn't conform to your beliefs you will simply shout other people down?
There is no reason to believe the CCP and every reason to believe the myriad of data out there that paints a much more accurate picture.

Reality says:
200k+ infected in Wuhan.
25k dead (many in their home due to a collapse in the health care system in the initial stages)

Repeats of Reality:
January 19 Announcement that wuhan would be quarantined
Juanry 24 Actual quarantine
In this 5-6 day period 2+million left, possibly 5 million though I will stick to the lower number, and this coming week we all get to chew our nails and wonder if Wuhan will repeat in Beijing, Guanzhu or any of the other cities those wuhan 'potential disease vectors' went to.
Face it, in the initial stages the ball was dropped. My wish is that it doesn't happen again. I sincerely hope that this thing doesn't explode again. It doesn't change the fact that Hubei is not under control and that Wuhan is still going through a really tough time.
I hope this is over soon

Posted by: dorje | Feb 9 2020 0:06 utc | 61

dorje |@60

China recognized that it was bad and took draconian measures to stop it.

Those measures are far more than what current numbers justify but they are warranted due to the possibility of greater turmoil if the threat is not addressed aggressively.

You're judging the response by Western standards which is to do as little as possible to contain and ride out the outbreak (aka "disaster capitalism") instead of taking severe actions to end it.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Feb 9 2020 0:16 utc | 62

Unfortunately, this wont be the end of this. Its true this virus has been overhyped, and is not as dangerous as made out to be, but perception is reality and the sheeple have proved over and over again how easily they can be scared, as they have done once again. Their perceptions are engineered using social media, big data and total information awareness to fine tune perceptions and reality to the desired end point.

The world has now been properly conditioned. The next stage is a 2nd wave, probably this fall, right around election time. This will be more of a global event. The difference is now they will have a stockpile of experimental DNA vaccines to unleash on the already conditioned population. Profits galore for Big Pharma. No liability. Mandatory vaccinations. Maybe elections get postponed . Martial law if needed. After all, Chinas draconian measures will be said to be effective. And if the vaccine is bad, maybe the population problem (man after-all is the virus according to the neomalthusians) gets solved and resource depletion declines giving us time to deal with the other fraud of Global Warming (and perhaps explain the cooling over the next 20 years due to low solar activity).

Tis interesting times indeed.

Posted by: Pft | Feb 9 2020 0:18 utc | 63

Women are the majority within 8,310 volunteer health workers in Wuhan, and the vast majority are militants of the Communist Party coming from 29 Chinese regions.

Such are the 'war wounds' of Chinese nurses who relentlessly fight the coronavirus epidemic

The World Health Organization has said publicly that it is "impressed" by the Chinese response to the coronavirus.

On the 29th, in Geneva, María Van Der Kerkhove, a researcher at the Pasteur Institute (France), one of the main epidemiologists of the World Health Organization and Executive Director of the WHO Health Emergencies Program, told the press that:

- One of the reasons why the growth in coronavirus diagnoses has been so rapid is because the Chinese government had published a complete genome mapping of the new variant a few days after the initial outbreak, which made the diagnosis much easier .

- China and Chinese scientists have probably performed the fastest characterization of a new pathogen in history, and that was immediately shared.

- Historically it is unprecedented that the entire genome sequence of a new virus be published a few days after the first appearance of the virus.

- China is doing the right thing, and is responding massively. We are certain of the absolute, relentless and focused determination of the Chinese government to put the health of people in China above anything else.

Several of the questions asked were about the "transparency" of the Chinese government and whether it gave reliable information. The answer was anthological: "It has been of a state of art, from very early, in an extremely impressive quantity and with constant updates since December 31".

And so that there were no doubts, Tedros Adhanom, WHO Director General said: "The detailed knowledge of President Xi Jinping and the Ministers of Health and Foreign Affairs has left me very encouraged and impressed. This is for me a kind of leadership very rare. The level of commitment [of the leadership] in China is incredible. I will praise China again and again because its actions have indeed helped reduce the spread of the new coronavirus to other countries. We will tell the truth and that is the truth".

Posted by: Sasha | Feb 9 2020 0:36 utc | 64

I don't recall the poster but I will state the following for clarity.

I am not Tibetan. 'Dorje'is a Tibetan word, however, and 'indomitable' is one meaning as is 'indestructable'. So, the use of that as a screen name is a personal choice for spiritual reasons.
I have no axe to grind with China or the CCP.
I have an axe to grind with governments who lie.
I don't dislike Chinese people. I grew up in a large city with 2 Chinatown's and have a basic familiarity with the culture and find them likeable people (barring the soup slurping and hawking on the sidewalk).
My position is based on what I'm seeing out there in medialand:
The Lancet
New England Journal of Medicine
Professor R. Boyle
Professor N. Ferguson, Imperial College
Dozens of publications (Global times, Zh, Tawain Times, SCMP, NY Times, CNN, MSnbc, youtube, etc et al)

The Ro factor is not precisely knoweable at this time. The educated guesses seem to be low 2 up to 3.3.

What I am seeing is a lot of minimizing and outright lying. That the Chinese are hiding the death rate is obvious. One guy has already been 'dissappeared' by the police (a wuhan local reporting from wuhan). China has every reason to hide facts. They have a serious issue with air quality (that they constantly lie about to scientist) which will tie into more deaths for those over 40 and more long term lung damage for those over 40 who survive.
The CCP does not intend on losing control. Now or ever. It is much easier to spoon out info slowly than to come out and tell the truth from day 1. I understand that but don't expect me to tow the line.
Fires burning overnight (ad hoc cremations), non-stop mandatory cremations (several sources including Epoch Times),mandated quarantines and I'm the one whose position is being questioned? When does the slander of me personally on this board escalate?
Seriously, get a f@cking grip.

Posted by: dorje | Feb 9 2020 0:36 utc | 65

No, the numbers are not accurate, and thw Chinese gov has stated as much several times. FUKUS has been on a major media campaign demonizing China on this, including Trump calling for an investigation on if this was a manufactured virus. How neatly this all fits the neocon war template, whether accidental, intentional, or coincidence.

They have a limited capacity for tests (6000/day currently, a new lab is being set up in Hubai which can process 2000/day more) as well as limitationson manufacturing tests alongbwith newly developed tests. The slower the test, the more accurate. The slow tests take 6 hours, but they have some pending approval for 15 minutes and even before symptoms show. The only people being tested are those with severe symptoms and most people are having mild cases with little to mo symptoms. They are not wasting the limited tests or testing capacity on dead people. That's basic triage with limited supplies.
Of the severe cases, 25% require ICU for 2-3 weeks. In the US, ICU is currently full with flu patients, per the CDC. The US has around 100,000 ICU beds.
There seems to be a high false-negative rate with this disease, but without knowing the details of which test was used its anecdotal. As reported, patients are testing negative 2x while having symptoms before testing positive.

It is confirmed that this can be transmitted during an asymptomatic incubation period, with the first transmission happening on average 5 days after infection.

CDC has stated that the only plan to deal with this is to try to slow it down at the borders, but to expect waves for 2-3 years with pockets of high infection numbers. being possible.

Thia seems to primary kill older people with other health conditions, but younger healthy people as dying from cytokine storms damaging major organs.

No, I am not going to find all the sources and post them on this phone as it's a PITA.

Posted by: Sorghum | Feb 9 2020 0:52 utc | 66

pft @62:
Yes, the coronavirus "incident" has the feel of a rehearsal to me. I know it's difficult, but I think we ought to struggle to keep alive our skepticism. We are taking the media on faith. We do not in fact actually know if there is an epidemic, let alone if it is severe.

Once again I call everyone's attention to the preparatory work:

"Event 201, the pandemic simulation staged by Johns Hopkins University in conjunction with the World Economic Forum, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, Johnson & Johnson, and other ruling-class heavy hitters in October."
https://www.globalresearch.ca/all-sectors-us-establishment-lock-step-deep-states-latest-bio-war/5702773

Even if this were not real, but only a hoax, I don't know how it wd look any different. Fact is-- we are endlessly manipulated by Big Media and know nothing. We're in Plato's cave.


"decade-old simulation titled “Lock Step” devised by the Rockefeller Foundation in conjunction with the Global Business Network. The scenario, one of four included in a publication called “Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International Development” in 2010, describes a coronavirus-like pandemic that becomes the trigger for the imposition of police-state controls on movement, economy, and other areas of society."


Posted by: Penelope | Feb 9 2020 0:54 utc | 67

From https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ the following numbers: If these are correct,

up to Feb 8, the vast majority of confirmed cases and all deaths but two are in China.

Up to Feb.2 17,387 confirmed total cases and 362 total deaths
Feb.3 20,626 " " " " 426 " "
Feb.4 24,553 " " " " 492 " "
Feb.5 28,276 " " " " 565 " "
Feb.6 31,439 " " " " 638 " "
Feb.7 34,875 " " " " 724 " "

So there is a trend during those six days of generally diminishing confirmed cases from roughly 3000 Feb.2 to Feb.3, then roughly 4000 Feb.3 to Feb.4, the just below 4000 Feb.4 to Feb.5, then roughly 3200 Feb.5 to Feb.6, then 3436 from Feb.6 to Feb.7.

then so far roughly 2300 more confirmed cases reported from Feb. 7 to Feb.8.

Total deaths by Feb.8 are reported as 807.

The total new deaths attributed to this virus are day by day since and including Feb.2, and up to and including Feb.7: 64, 66, 73, 73, 86, with 85 more reported so far as occurring on Feb.8

Those numbers if correct are reassuring, but it's early to assume even by these numbers that this epidemic in China is really under control.

How accurate are the numbers above? We have no way of knowing. There are incentives for accuracy and there are incentives for dishonesty, and there are possible innocently erroneous contributions.

There is also the question of possible second and third wave epidemics; and the possibility of surprising mutations for better or worse.

The repercussions of this whole situation - let us call it the 2020 Coronavirus (nCoV19) epidemic affair - will include calling into serious question the whole neo-liberal globalization project. The major alternative is for far more emphasis on diverse local production, decentralized economies, independent production and reliable access to basics, less reliance on massive inputs from far away, and so on.

There is also the question as to whether this was a deliberately induced situation, asymmetric warfare type of thing. If that is concluded to be the case, or even probably the case, then whatever the ultimate health repercussions of this virus, sinister geopolitics has taken an even more sinister turn.

Posted by: Robert Snefjella | Feb 9 2020 0:57 utc | 68

Stay strong China, you will defeat those who attack you with bio weapons, economically, politically, hate and racism. 中國加油。

Biological Weapons: A Useful and Timely Factual Overview

https://globalresearch.us11.list-manage.com/track/click?u=2cc48fb30f331d97157a65aa2&id=c3b5097ed7&e=ae465b326f

Posted by: KenTX | Feb 9 2020 1:01 utc | 69

Biological Weapons: A Useful and Timely Factual Overview

Posted by: KenTX | Feb 9 2020 1:17 utc | 70

@ Posted by: dorje | Feb 8 2020 19:25 utc | 10

But then you're putting China in an impossible moral choice: either it let it loose and the epidemic spreads freely (killing much more than those 50,000 per day your source is telling us) - in which case you would point out the structural failure of Chinese socialism and preach for the restauration of (disaster) capitalism in the country - or it contains the epidemic by whatever means it has and you accuse them of being "draconic", a communist dictatorship.

You see the situation you put yourself into? You - consciously or not - already had the anti-China narrative ready for all seasons. You had already decided you would attack China no matter what happened.

Your hypothesis of "massage international opinion" doesn't make any sense to me. First of all: why is this epidemic China's fault? It is a force of nature, there's nothing we can do against it - China simply has more human beings and more animals. It would be the same to try to blame the USA for a major earthquake that happens in California. What is the rest of the world going to do if China really is lying about the amount of dead? Invade it, sanction it - in order to kill even more Chinese? Besides, why would China bother to placate the world financial markets? It isn't as dependent on them as the USA, and a panic attack would be more harmful to Wall Street.

Also, assume China is an absolute and most brutal dictatorship. Even if that would be the case (which is isn't, in any possible definition of the word), we have to face the logical fact that it wouldn't be of the best interests of China to not try to defeat the epidemic in the most efficient way possible. After all, dictatorships are the stronger the more people it controls. There was not a rebellion in Wuhan that we know of before the epidemic was discovered, so we can write off the "bioweapon" possibility.

This "China is killing its own people and hiding it" is a remniscent of the old Cold War propagandistic myths that stated Stalin and Mao simply killed millions of their own people gratuituously (e.g. "Holodomor", the famines of the Cultural Revolution) because they were "dictators". Why would they do that?

I also noticed you've just begun to use the term "quarantine camp" - a term invented by the NYT yesterday. Don't think we don't notice those things here.

And you westerners must decide what to do about Tencent. Either it is a CCP façade behemot designed to buy and control western companies or it is a reliable and honest source at the service of "the truth".

Posted by: vk | Feb 9 2020 1:18 utc | 71

@dorje 37:

"Seriously, get a f@cking grip."

First, including a profanity, especially one disguised in such an adolescent manner, is exactly that: adolescent.

Second, truth thrives on criticism. Sometimes criticism hurts. Tough.

Third, MoA readers are not known for being easily cowed or scared. If anyone insists on expressing views that, in the minds of many here at MoA, are hyping fear and promoting the Imperial agenda, then criticism is to be expected. Deal with it.

Finally, it would be best if the excellent advice offered by Deltaeus (many thanks!) in post 37 is followed.

Posted by: Theophrastus | Feb 9 2020 1:20 utc | 72

Reference should have been @dorje 64, not 37. Sorry.

Posted by: Theophrastus | Feb 9 2020 1:22 utc | 73

I can see all Western MSM and anti-China trolls are in full gear all over the internet and social media spreading rumors and anti-China propaganda.

Why would they do that to support the US-ZOG narrative if China wasn't the victim of bioweapons attack?

Posted by: KenTX | Feb 9 2020 1:22 utc | 74

As the others pointed out the 2% death rate is fake news / innumeracy. It will turn out to be at least 5% when the dust settles, quite possibly over 10%. In the worst affected areas such as Wuhan it will be even higher due to the lack of medical cover - the volumes are already overwhelming the medical care capacity.

https://youtu.be/nkF4qYdNU9Y is so far the most balanced take on the situation

Posted by: Parabolic | Feb 9 2020 1:37 utc | 75

@34 -- similar theme here. (Published on February 5, 2020)

somethings-right-here-folks-look-usa-2009-h1n1-virus-compared

Posted by: imo | Feb 9 2020 1:40 utc | 76

Posted by: vk | Feb 9 2020 1:18 utc | 69
First of all: why is this epidemic China's fault? It is a force of nature, there's nothing we can do against it - China simply has more human beings and more animals.
I don't know. India has the comparable human population and lots of all kinds of animals (they have lots of monkeys btw) but we do not see these kinds of outbreaks from there. So, it seems it is more matter of interactions than just the numbers. SARS, Corona and Ebola all started from game meats. MERS OTOH came from camels but god knows what those goat fuckers in Saudi Barbaria were doing with camels...

Posted by: hopehely | Feb 9 2020 1:46 utc | 77

@b

Thanks very much for this update. It agrees with what I've been reading from several Chinese sources, and fits the culture of China as I so far understand it.

The article at the Saker linked up-thread on this subject is by Pepe Escobar, who knows his Asia very well:
China’s virus response has been ‘breathtaking’

The World Health Organization would agree with Escobar's take. WHO has marveled at and praised China's response to the outbreak of this previously unknown virus, and has warned that the problems for the world will really be dire if it spreads to other countries with less well developed health systems. To me, the United States comes to mind in this regard.

The fact is that China has contained this threat within its borders to an amazing extent. I, personally, am grateful for that, since I live in the US and would hate to see such a thing here in this barbaric social organization.

~~

One word on the "draconian" aspect of what China has done. The government rules under the Mandate of Heaven, and can be rebelled against and even overthrown if it fails to serve the people. The CCP holds the well-being of the people as its principal goal. The Chinese people's relationship with their government is vastly different from western such relationships. In the west, we tend to regard government as an intruder into our lives. In China, the government has a seat at the household dinner table, often as the respected elder, and certainly more intimately, almost as family, than anyone in the US can imagine.

The quarantining of 400 million people cited frequently in this thread, if this is the number (I don't know), is simply the government doing what it is charged with doing. If you delve into Chinese life you will find that the people are glad that their government is acting with such dispatch to defeat this threat. It's what the people expect from the government. It is the sign of a competent government. I will call the current CCP one of the most capable governments in the world, perhaps the most capable now and even of all time. I suspect that the Chinese people will agree with me. But I don't care to argue this point - go check it out for yourself and see what you find.

~~

The great problem in this situation, as with all things Chinese, is the almost total lack of knowledge in the west of things Chinese. And the legacy of imperialist racism that still pervades our thinking, certainly our media and western governments.

And so on this basis, b, I would like to redouble my thanks and appreciation for your sane and accurate update on the situation.

Posted by: Grieved | Feb 9 2020 1:46 utc | 78

@32 Jen

I have to remind the board again that pneumonia deaths in the U.S. is a far greater number annually than flu deaths and they are lumped together which gives a false impression of actual flu deaths. Actual ratio I am not entirely sure, but I have read it is extremely skewed towards pneumonia deaths over flu ones...something like 100:1.

Posted by: NemesisCalling | Feb 9 2020 1:50 utc | 79

The first paragraph of https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/07/health/coronavirus-patients.html begins "One patient, admitted to a hospital in Wuhan, China, infected at least 10 health care workers and four other patients with the Coronavirus .."; which makes the most commonly cited number of 5 mean transmissions per carrier seem at least plausible.

So accepting that number for the sake of argument, can anyone tell me please what are the chances, on the one hand, of the epidemic being controlled without major loss of life; and on the other hand of millions of deaths, widespread panic, and the collapse of social order in large parts of the CPR, or elsewhere?

Posted by: carl | Feb 9 2020 1:52 utc | 80

@69 vk, @75 hopeholy

Yes, I agree with vk that, so what?...it originated in China. I don't see how this should threaten the reputation of China or why there would be a presence of shills exaggerating statistics for what reason?...embarrasing China?

They have a massive population and are playing furious catch-up to first world standards of living and disease protection.

I don't see the need if you are pro-China to worry about what these people are spreading.

However, I am a fan of potentially decoupling from the east anyways and letting China rule the roost over there.

...

Re: India and their eating habits. Chinese are far more voracious meat-eaters than India with it's 40% observing vegetarianism. Even those that do eat meat in India eat far less. I would chalk this up as to why they don't have these same outbreaks as China and western meat lover states.

I did also mention once before that incidence of gut-borne illness is probably much greater in India than in China. You have immune systems then that are more primed to repel mutations?...just theorizing.

Posted by: Nemesiscalling | Feb 9 2020 2:13 utc | 81

The video posted #55 is a good example of the reaction to this. The CPC are authoritarians with an extreme censorship system, however, in this case they have legitimate grounds for it. Those saying "trust the medical sources and their 'estimates'" are overlooking the fact that response to pandemic threats is driven by security concerns before medical concerns. In a potential pandemic situation the possible damage than can be caused by mass panic (in economic and humanitarian terms) is at least as severe as the damage that can be caused by the actual illness. Security concerns must take priority in regard the spread of information, balancing a need to prevent panic with sharing accurate data on the illness. In some cases this can, quite justifiably, include hiding or lying about the extent of the outbreak in order to better contain its spread. So, China may well be lying, that doesn't mean they aren't correct to do so.

Getting back to the video #55, it shows many of the snippets of footage leaked from Wuhan that are making people on the outside overreact in an irrational manner. The lockdown makes complete sense given the nature of the virus is still not fully known. Even if no worse that regular flu it would be impossible to predict this in the early stages and an excessive response is far better than risking a worst case scenario. Imagine though, what would happen if the US tried to enforce such a lockdown.

The panic and rumour-mongering we now see about Wuhan would be 100 times more extreme if it was people talking about relatives cut off in a US city. The media would be examining worst case scenarios and encouraging people to stock up on food and seal themselves into their homes. Countless people inside the quarantine zone would be trying to break out and the military would certainly be mobilized. Gun nuts within the quarantine area would likely end up in firefights with police. Medical personnel trying to take infected people to hospital would, in less affluent areas, likely come under physical attack. Shops would be shut down, looting would likely be endemic, criminals would be running wild and police and other emergency services hopelessly overloaded. Every person that passed out drunk, had an epileptic seizure or was chased by police would probably be video-taped and uploaded as a 'victim of the virus'. As was mentioned above, the fact that China has a pretty shitty political system likely means they could carry this quarantine out in manner that would have been almost impossible in Western states.

The thing is that because of their strict response, and to a large extent a common view that (apart from a few whistleblowers who receive hero status) the Chinese government is populated by thousands of people with no basic empathy or concern for their fellow citizens, people are assuming that things inside the Wuhan bubble have to be much worse that what we're seeing on the outside.

At present the only reliable figures we can work with are infections on outside Wuhan/Hubei and the mortality among those cases, which is 0.25% in mainland China (still unreliable due to above) and 0.29% in other countries. Someone above said these are unreliable due to the 2 week incubation period but the infected:death ratio has to be based on when symptoms occur not when people are infected, which is a much smaller window. Unless there is a significant shift in the next week it seems that the external mortality rates are unlikely to change (unless it is to decrease). It's also worth remembering that a city the size of Wuhan would have been expected to suffer up to a 1000 pneumonia type deaths annually, most of them during the current flu-season. In the current situation every one of those deaths would likely be treated as suspect and given the yellow body bag treatment. Videos of dead bodies being taken away cannot be taken as evidence of anything other than excessive caution.

Readers of this blog would generally be accepting of the fact that the mainstream media cannot be trusted to curb hysteria rather than fan its flames. They should also be aware that these events, in geostrategic terms, play very well into the long-term aims of the US and UK and that those states will (at best) face a difficult choice over whether to downplay or promote panic over the issue - likely based on a purely realpolitik assessment of whether the panic will do more long-term harm to China's interests or their own. Finally, regarding medical professionals, niche experts have atrocious track records at any kind of predictive analysis. Whether earthquakes, climate change or viral pandemics, they are far, far better at looking at data after the fact and examining what happened rather than using their digital crystal balls to conduct real-time extrapolations. Their opinions are certainly valuable and can, in some cases, offer valuable insight, however, their preliminary data cannot be trusted, especially when exaggerating the extent of threats can be beneficial to their public profile or future research budgets.

Posted by: Glagaire | Feb 9 2020 2:13 utc | 82

Dorje is taking a lot of heat, but I believe he is more right than wrong on this. I don't think b has looked at the right sort of unofficial info yet which explains why detection has been quadratic and not exponential as one would expect due to limitations on test kit availability. I have found useful info from Chris Martenson, see YouTube. A Hong Kong University professor presentation said he expects this to peak April/May - can you imagine the global economic carnage by then? Lots of theories going around, the most likely one is that the virus escaped from the Wuhan lab. It seems this has happened on Martin Armstrong's ECM turn date of 18/19 January 2020 predicted years ago indicating it is a very significant event that will have global consequences.

Posted by: Anon2 | Feb 9 2020 2:26 utc | 83

@77 Yes you can tell that the pneumonia cases are dramatically more as shown by the small number of child deaths reported annually. The difference between flu deaths overall and flu deaths of children over the same period is surprisingly different.

Posted by: Linda Amick | Feb 9 2020 2:31 utc | 84

@69

CIA clowns like Dorje have their heads so far up their asses that they are even believing their own fantasies about a collapsed China, and that always makes them easy to spot from a mile away.

Posted by: JW | Feb 9 2020 2:41 utc | 85

It's going to be interesting to see how all of the people who have made all these hysterical, exaggerated predictions these last couple of weeks are going to walk back their excitement. The latest figures from the Chinese provinces show them in complete alignment with HK and Macao - eg Guangdong with around 1100 cases.

Outside of China the numbers are going nowhere, although yes,I do expect some economic carnage.

The most boring pandemic in history. - fortunately.

Posted by: clickkid | Feb 9 2020 2:42 utc | 86

@ grieved 76 good post

@ glagaire, I agree with most of what you posted. Thank you.

Mortality and infection rates are always an estimate until after the event is over due to new data changing the numbers and considering this bug has barely been around for 2 months, its hard to give accuate estimates. Wuhan's medical system is overwhelmed as any system would be with such high numbers of severe cases. Being ground zero for a novel virus allowed it to spread unchecked so Wuhan's R0 number will probably be worse.

Since most cases are mild and therefor aren't IDed/tested, the CFR and R0 are skewed and guesses at best. R0 will possibly be higher, but CFR is almost certain to drop.

I've seen a lot of people on other forums over reacting to China's response to this. Most seem to live in the fantasy that similar tactics would be used anywhere else if needed. It's emergency triage on a national scale, and something which China is possiby the only country able to do it on this scale.

As for Event 201, anyone who thinks it was some sort of nefarious pre-planning for this outbreak should go listen to the videos of the discussion. It is interesting because it gives insight into the thought process behind the decisions being made by govs. There are 3 hours of videos.

Posted by: Sorghum | Feb 9 2020 2:49 utc | 87

On occasion I would talk with some close friend that I care about and say that it's a shame you don't know the truth about Russia and Putin - for example - because you are missing some astonishing moves of great elegance that you would completely appreciate and enjoy if only you knew about them.

Similarly, as I continue to read and watch videos clips from the China situation - including Iranians wishing Wuhan to be strong, for example, from that nation which has so far sent 3 million face masks to China - I feel a certain sorrow that friends of mine will never see this situation for the true thing that it is, a great human crisis, with the heroic response, and the outpouring of heart-warming and heart-rending emotion that fills the story.

It's one of the most magnificent events in many ways, and it is lost in the west, and even in this thread for many people I suppose, simply because it all filters through screens of ignorance and disbelief. The greatest civilization on the planet is giving all its people into the task of saving all its people, and those of all the world. Time stops, the heart stops, the mind stops, as we wait and watch, while the Chinese have plunged into combat with this new enemy, in a race faster than the world has ever seen in any such situation.

And in the west, none of this is seen.

Posted by: Grieved | Feb 9 2020 2:52 utc | 88

A few points to consider:
1. WHO is planning to send the first coronavirus test kits to Africa on Tuesday, so hopefully, they can begin testing suspected cases by this weekend. We should know a little more about the situation in Africa next week.
2. As of yesterday, there were flights leaving China for Mexico City every few minutes. Considering the fact that the number of illegal border crossers is generally over 100,000 per month, we may regret not building that wall in the near future.
3. The numbers of infected in Wuhan is going up at a consistent rate, because each hospital is given 100 test kits per day to work with. The number under observation is about to level off, because the number exceeds the number that they are able to monitor. Once they get past that 100th patient, the rest of the infected just aren't counted.
4. While China is hyping the fact that only about 3% of Coronavirus patients have died, it's not so anxious to publicize the fact that the true death rate will only be known once more people recover; right now, the official number is 2,410 recovered out of 37,552 cases.
5. Even the worst flu will only kill about 1 out of 2,000 infected. Even the official estimate of 3% means 3 out of 100, which means that, if this spreads worldwide like a normal flu, there will be tens of millions dead. BUT Tencent accidentally released some data showing a mortality rate of almost 17%, and a recovery rate of about 2 per 1,000 infected. If it's true, we're talking maybe a billion dead if this thing gets out.
6. Speaking of which, Chinese Mega-Corp Tencent has published, then retracted, some scary numbers on 4 separate occasions; each day they posted, the numbers had increased substantially from the day before. The latest I've seen would indicate over 150,000 infected, 25,000 dead and only 290 recovered as of 2/2/2020. The question is: How much do you trust the Chinese Government?
Is being prepared for an epidemic worth it? If it doesn't become a global pandemic: Cost to stock up 2 or 3 months' worth of canned food, dried beans and rice? Nothing. If nothing happens, you'll eat it over the course of the next few months anyway. A box of face masks, manual can opener,flashlight and batteries, and propane camp stove? Maybe $100. Cost of being unprepared if it really is as bad as the Tencent numbers, and escapes the quarantine zone? Your life...

Posted by: George | Feb 9 2020 3:04 utc | 89

reading the comments, it is amusing to immediately notice the obvious anti China posters.
They can easily be spotted by:
spreading fear, uncertainly and doubts, using sentences such as "let's see what the future brings"
talking about the CCCP and how it it doesn't want to lose control(As if the Illuminati in USA and the West would want to relinquish control)
dissing the Chinese AND the Chinese CCCP with claims that the Chinese are lying about the figures but not offering any proof
presenting the whole affair in negative terms and only using negative sentences when describing China.
and so on.

By now, it is fairly obvious (from the circumstantial evidence) that this is an engineered bio weapon designed to isolate China from the rest of the world and the cause a lot of problems for BRI project(especially the BRI project). it is obvious who benefits from isolating CHina and causing problems for BRI project, we don't have to mention any names or initials. After all, Pompeo and several other high officials have recently clearly started that CHina is USA's number 1 enemy and competitor. That much is clear to pretty much everyone.
The onl problem left is how severe the economic damage will be and how it will causing problems for and delaying the BRI project will help the unscrupulous bastards who released this on China.

Posted by: Hoyeru | Feb 9 2020 3:06 utc | 90

Hoyeru,

spot on with your comment - thank you.

I am pretty sure that this will be only a temporary setback for China. Indeed, the resulting economic damage, which will obviously not be confined to China, but will ripple out, may in fact topple the towers of global debt and accelerate the end of this dollar-centric world monetary system.

The bastards may have miscalculated.

Posted by: clickkid | Feb 9 2020 3:13 utc | 91

Grieved #86

It's one of the most magnificent events in many ways, and it is lost in the west, and even in this thread for many people I suppose, simply because it all filters through screens of ignorance and disbelief. The greatest civilization on the planet is giving all its people into the task of saving all its people, and those of all the world. Time stops, the heart stops, the mind stops, as we wait and watch, while the Chinese have plunged into combat with this new enemy, in a race faster than the world has ever seen in any such situation.

And in the west, none of this is seen.


YES a thousand times to that. I sometimes see the USA government's abandonment of its very own state of Puerto Rico at the devastation caused by hurricane Maria as my benchmark for government failure and callous disregard.

China has demonstrated the immense power of good government and compassionate response to public emergency.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Feb 9 2020 3:25 utc | 92


Posted by: Grieved | Feb 9 2020 2:52 utc | 86

Thanks well said. Huanggang Hubei was my ancestor home, if my dad is alive he would cried even as he fought for the others sides during the civil war. We have no family member in the mainland.

Posted by: JC | Feb 9 2020 3:26 utc | 93

by: occupatio @ 4 viral infection as an inducement to decouple' is in military dual use manufacturing, to pressure TSMC to re-locate to the US. The purpose of such military decoupling is to minimize disruption in the case of a US-China hot war. <== I see the decoupling as occurring from the other direction.. China may have been attacked, but anyway it is using the virus scare to restrain its masses from objecting to decoupling USA from China.. Chinese people would not agree to suffer the short term economic that is occurring, unless they believed it was necessary to prevent the spread of the virus.
Over time, the Chinese will accept the short term return to poverty caused by the Chinese refusal to allow Chinese goods to be marketed in USA market as a Chinese response. . After a short time China will no longer be dependent on USA governed America or the American Market.
The viral scare provides cover for China's commitment to deny the USA in China, and to effect a regime change in America, and to deny the USA access to Chinese goods.

As you occupation points out, China is the largest trading partner for most countries in the world, but I believe Iran, India, Russia, Turkey and Pakistan can and will supply China until China can ramp up to supply those things internally. IOWS, I see China as using the virus scare to retrench its own exports, seeking NON USA suppliers worldwide; the unstoppable Huawei=> Xiaomi <

by: Patroklos @ 47 Is the exaggerated response a calculated pretext for decoupling? the supply-chain issues are only going to get worse even if the scale of the epidemic is decreasing <=makes sense to me. China don't need the USA any longer.

to Bevin @ 44 regards how would the USA respond regards an uncontrollable viral epidemic.?
to answer consider putting B's question into a set of null hypothesis:

In the event of fake or real viral infection in America <= the following hypothesis seem likely:
Hypothesis 1: Privately owned propaganda would designate the infection as an act of BIO-Terrorism.
Hypothesis 2: USA would bomb the party designated by private propaganda to be source of the infection.
Hypothesis 3: USA would use private media propaganda to justify a bio tech lab in every nation in the world.
Hypothesis 4: USA would give big pharma tillions for a non effective vaccine.
hypothesis 5: Americans would be forced to pay and be victimized by the ineffective big pharma vacine.
Hypothesis 6. private lobbist would encourage Congress to impose more survailence and restraint on Americans.

Those measures are far more than what current numbers justify by Jackrabbit @ 61

KenTx @ 67 thanks for that link summary bio-weapons I agree China may have developed a defense to the USA Market by using the virus epidemic as cover, acting defensively not against the virus but against the dominate power of the USA market. Also not mentioned in global research report are the hundreds of privately owned biological facilities around the globe, and the special expertise the Israelis have in bio-weapon technology.


Posted by: snake | Feb 9 2020 3:31 utc | 94

These reports reminded me of three experiences I'd like to share as anecdotal data points, as we don't have much to go on.
First, I visited Changhai lake with a VOA reporter who spoke fluent Mandarin just after the birds who were the purported source of the infamous bird flu left the lake area, where they migrate through, and where the virus purportedly originated. Quite a bit of activity had presumably taken place there with respect to this investigation. Nobody there had seen anything in the least bit unusual take place during that time period. The only people that came through were small groups of tourists, people buying honey from roadside stands, and a rare passer-through stopping for some grilled yak for lunch. No teams of scientists, and nobody had heard of this bird flu. They were amused to hear this news.
Second, I was equally fortunate to spend time in Beijing, about two years before the 2008
Olympics, when the major construction was taking place. There were roughly half a dozen to a dozen major projects, and several men perished each day at most sites. Men were standing in line all the way around the block, waiting for an opportunity to open up because someone had gotten killed during the construction. This was no secret to anyone, and this level of mortality did not arise to the level of cocktail conversation.
The third observation is that I was not so fortunate in experiencing H3N2 virus coupled with pneumonia. I am physically highly robust. It was really pretty rough. I have been looking at the photos of the field hospitals in China. I don't think I would have survived the illness I experienced, antibiotics included in the calculus, in one of those places. Unless the coronavirus is not so hard hitting as H3N2 coupled with pneumonia, they would be more like a triage encampment for the hopeless.
Let's all pray the numbers are mostly honest and this virus is simply not that deadly, as the alternative scenario seems to require that it is more so, that the authorities are engaged in significant cover up, and that the numbers and and the entire situation in every way is more scary than we'd all prefer to believe.

Posted by: Bruce | Feb 9 2020 3:32 utc | 95

Yonden Lhatoo South China Morning Post Chief News Editors

Coronavirus crisis injects new life into Hong Kong ‘revolution’ with toxic results

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=2&v=Wf5-wh2_w_4&feature=emb_logo

Escaping Wuhan: Chinese-American on her evacuation from coronavirus-hit city

"Now under quarantine, Xu will have to repay the US government for the extraction, to the tune of around US$1,000

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3049651/american-chinese-evacuated-coronavirus-hit-wuhan-relieved-be


Posted by: JC | Feb 9 2020 3:36 utc | 96

@james 01

it reminds me of how messed up the world is where economic activities are always interfering with our priorities.

Neoliberalism in action. In a sane society/world the interests of the citizenry would come first and economic activity would be conducted to benefit the citizenry as a whole. In our world it’s exactly the opposite. The economy is controlled by a small group of transnational oligarchs and their interests always come first while ‘the people’ are used as pawns and fodder to make sure the oligarchs, people like Bezos, Soros, Koch, Branson and Gates, continue to reap massive economic benefits at their expense and maintain a stranglehold over the global economy. It’s a recipe for dystopian disasters and broken societies.

Posted by: Daniel | Feb 9 2020 3:41 utc | 97

When this blows over MoA should do an analysis of the epidemic of China bashing that this epidemic has caused.

I have noticed quite a few sites (mostly youtubers) who normally don't go in for China bashing dedicate a lot of time on China bashing in this instance.

I wonder if the "sleeper cell" method is not being applied to get the people swayed to a particular agenda. That is, allow a range of sites to build up a large following and use them judiciously at critical times to achieve ones propaganda aims.

Posted by: jiri | Feb 9 2020 3:52 utc | 98

I believe you should deal with outcomes, which is #deaths:#recovered-or-died, or 813/(2689+813) = 23% chance of death, 77% chance of survival as an outcome, to date. All other infecteds are in progress, and cannot be counted for survival rate.

A linear rate in total confirmed would be consistent with the number of people able to run confirmations/day being saturated.

Posted by: Imagine | Feb 9 2020 3:56 utc | 99

Hopehely @ 75:

Wedding feasts in Saudi Barbaria traditionally feature a turducken-style feast in which roast camel is stuffed with a sheep, the sheep stuffed with a chicken and the chicken stuffed with fish or something equally small. The whole thing traditionally served on a common plate and everyone sits around and helps himself or herself with fingers. Just thought you'd like to know.

Posted by: Jen | Feb 9 2020 4:10 utc | 100

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