The Coronavirus – No Need To Panic

January 25, 2020

Bring Out Your Dead by beq
bigger – uncropped

I had a little bird,
Its name was Enza.
I opened the window,
And in-flu-enza.
The Influenza Pandemic of 1918

The picture and the rhyme are from a fifteen year old Moon of Alabama post headlined Bring Out Your Dead. Beq's title for her picture is from a medieval Mounty Pyton sketch (vid) around the 'black death'. We no longer have to fear the plague but every once a while a new virus catches up with humanity.

China is stepping up efforts to stop the spread of a the novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV:

Chinese President Xi Jinping has held a special government meeting on the Lunar New Year public holiday to warn that the spread of a deadly new virus is "accelerating".

The country is facing a "grave situation" Mr Xi told senior officials, according to state television.

The coronavirus has killed at least 41 people and infected almost 1,300 since its discovery in the city of Wuhan.

Travel restrictions have already hit several affected cities.

And from Sunday, private vehicles will be banned from the central districts of Wuhan, the source of the outbreak.
…
Across mainland China, travellers are having their temperatures checked for signs of fever, and train stations have been shut in several cities.

An infected person transmits the virus to X healthy persons. In an epidemic the factor X is greater than 1. For the novel coronavirus the initial factor, also known as R₀ or R naught, is 1.4-2.5 which is not especially high.

Ferris Jabr @ferrisjabr – 6:58 UTC · Jan 25, 2020

The basic reproduction number (R0) is the average number of secondary infections generated by one infected person in a totally susceptible population #2019nCoV
…
The claim that "we are now faced with the most virulent virus epidemic the world has ever seen" and that the new coronavirus is 8x as infectious as SARS is completely untrue. Even if the R0 were 3.8 that would be nowhere near a record.

Here is some context w/ a range of R0s:

bigger

As long as the R₀ is over 1 the infection will spread further as each infected person will infect multiple healthy ones who again will infect others. To stop an epidemic R₀ has to be brought to under 1. Key is to lower the number of healthy persons an infected person comes into contact with. In 2002-2003 the SARS epidemic started out with an R₀ of about 3 and ended with an R₀ of 0.4. This was achieved by isolating the sick and, as not all infected persons are immediately recognized, also by lowering the number of contacts people have in their daily life.

China is now rapidly doing both.

The fatality rate of the novel coronavirus is also no reason to panic.

Dr. Melvin Sanicas @Vaccinologist – 22:11 UTC · Jan 23, 2020

Preliminary R0 (number showing how contagious / transmissible a pathogen is) for #Wuhan #nCoV2019 novel #coronavirus: 1.4-2.5. Here are the figures for other diseases #SARSvirus #MERS & their case-fatality rates to put things in perspective

bigger

The current 4% case-fatality rate of the coronavirus (which still may increase) is also not especially high. The Spanish Flu pandemic, which began in the U.S., had a fatality rate of about 10%. It was unusual in that it killed mostly young adults. The novel coronavirus seems to be quite usual in that it mostly kills people who are already weakened by other circumstances. The infection is then often the 'last drop in the bucket' that kills a person who already had a medical condition.

People fond of conspiracy theories will speculate that the coronoavirus was spread intentionally or escaped from some laboratory. The neo-conservatives in the U.S. have played with that idea.

Advanced forms of biological warfare that can “target” specific genotypes may transform biological warfare from the realm of terror to a politically useful tool.
"Rebuilding America's Defenses" – The September 2000 PNAC Report

But from a scientific perspective that makes little sense. There is no 'race gene' that could be used to safely discriminate between people of a certain heritage and others.

The novel coronavirus is likely a variant of some animal virus that crossed over to a human host. This probably happens way more often than we recognize.

Posted by b on January 25, 2020 at 17:30 UTC | Permalink

Comments

Engdahal on Gates/Obama connection to man-made disease vectors:
https://journal-neo.org/2015/03/24/gates-and-obama-share-a-dark-secret/

Posted by: casey | Jan 27 2020 14:47 utc | 201

Posted by: lulu | Jan 27 2020 4:06 utc | 176
Yes, the kind “full saturation rescue effort” (the term used in the movie Wandering Earth) is an idea that some people in the West probably can’t even wrap their brains around.
Another general note about the “cured” numbers I want to emphasize again: these are the numbers of people who have been released from hospital. My understanding is that currently, there is a fairly long observation period for those who have been admitted, confirmed, and are in recovery, so the “cured” numbers will not increase much yet for the next several days (possibly another week or so).

Posted by: Chinese American | Jan 27 2020 14:52 utc | 202

Gruff, #194:
nailed it w/drM, spot on!
Thanks!

Posted by: Thomas Minnehan | Jan 27 2020 16:22 utc | 203

Re that Indian site which peddle their Canuck
buddies ‘Chinese agents stole bioweapon from
Canadian lab//……..

‘It’s not right that she’s a Canadian government employee providing details of top-secret work and know-how to set up a high-containment lab for a foreign nation,” one employee said.

‘
So this is the reason then,
Everybody knows that Trumps and Co have been purging Chinese scientists from ‘sensitive’ research centres, ostensibly ‘for national security’ concern, actually an excuse for snuffing out China’s scientific advance.
Wouldnt be surprised the Canucks got a call from Washington.
The way they kidnapped Huawei CEO’s daughter, you know.

‘Ebola and Henipah viruses—classified as Category A and C bioterrorism agents by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, respectively—pose a threat to national security because of their potential to be easily disseminated, cause high morbidity and mortality rates, and deliver lasting blows to public health.

‘
NO kidding , [[[they]]] must be speaking from experience…..
https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2014/10/20/us-government-master-criminal-time/

‘“All transfers of Risk Group 4 samples follow strict transportation requirements and are authorized by senior officials at the lab and the NML tracks and keeps electronic records of all shipments of samples in accordance with the HPTA,” PHAC spokesman Eric Morrissette writes in a statement, as reported by CBC News. “On the specific shipments to China earlier this year, we can confirm that we have all records pertaining to the shipment, and that all protocols were followed as directed by the above Acts and Standards.”’

so How’s that a ‘theft’ by the ‘Chinese biowar agents’ [sic]

‘China agreed to the Biological Weapons Convention in 1984, but both academics and government agencies have recently asserted that the country is a world leader in bio-weapon production, according to the Edmonton Journal.’

[[[They]]] asserted China blah blah blah,
must be true I guess.
hehhehehehehehe

‘Given the tension between the two countries, Chinese-Canadian researchers and academics are starting to worry they may be singled out and targeted, says Jia Wang, deputy director of the University of Alberta’s China Institute,’

BIngo !
There has been a concerted McCarthy style witch hunt on ‘Chinese agents’ all over [[[five liars]]] land in accordance with the bossman’s ‘global Chinese exclusion act’ since Trump took office.
—————————

‘This Coronavirus sample was acquired by Scientific Director Dr. Frank Plummer of Canada’s National Microbiology Laboratory (NML) in Winnipeg directly from Fouchier, who received it from Zaki. This virus was reportedly stolen from the Canadian lab by Chinese agents.’

Which ‘agents’, which ‘report’ ?

‘Xiangguo Qiu – The Chinese Bio-Warfare Agent
The NML scientist who was escorted out of the Canadian lab along with her husband, another biologist, and members of her research team is believed to be a Chinese Bio-Warfare agent’

[[[They]]] ‘believe‘ blah blah blah,
These days, [[[They]]] dont have to prove a damn thing,
just ‘assert’, ‘believe’, ‘claim’ and you’r done.
No way to appeal.
hehhehe
‘

many Chinese agents as students from a range of Chinese scientific facilities directly tied to China’s Biological Warfare Program, namely:
Institute of Military Veterinary, Academy of Military Medical Sciences, Changchun
Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chengdu Military Region
Wuhan Institute of Virology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hubei
Institute of Microbiology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing’

Bioweapon facilities ?
Sounds like defensive research centres to me,
The entire Chinese military doctrine is based on Defence.
China is the first country to declare NO FIRST USE in nukes.

‘However, the studies by Dr. Qiu are considerably more advanced and apparently vital for the Chinese biological weapons development in case Coronavirus, Ebola, Nipah, Marburg or Rift Valley fever viruses are included therein.’

you bet its vital for Chinese defensive biowarfare program,
[fixed]
‘

Dr. Xiangguo Qiu made at least five trips over the school year 2017-18 to the above mentioned Wuhan National Biosafety Laboratory of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, which was certified for BSL4 in January 2017. Moreover, in August 2017, the National Health Commission of China approved research activities involving Ebola, Nipah, and Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever viruses at the Wuhan facility.’

Thats the rub then,
[[[they]]] dont want the Chinese to acquire the means to defend themselves against [[[their]]] bioweapons,.
It figures.

‘Coincidentally, the Wuhan National Biosafety Laboratory is located only 20 miles away from the Huanan Seafood Market which is the epicenter of the Coronavirus outbreak dubbed the Wuhan Coronavirus.’

I dont believe in coincidence theory,
The virus was planted at that seafood market precisely to implicate the Chinese Lab,.

‘The Wuhan institute has studied coronaviruses in the past, including the strain that causes Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, or SARS, H5N1 influenza virus, Japanese encephalitis, and dengue. Researchers at the institute also studied the germ that causes anthrax’

I’d be damned if they dont study those craps the [[[sobs]]] keep throwing at them, it’d be a gross derelict of duty.

‘James Giordano, a neurology professor at Georgetown University and senior fellow in Biowarfare at the U.S. Special Operations Command, said China’s growing investment in bio-science, looser ethics around gene-editing and other cutting-edge technology and integration between government and academia raise the spectre of such pathogens being weaponized.

‘
ROFLMAO
Talk about bandits crying out loud.
Pray tell ,
how did those 80 microbiologists die ,
I heard many specialised in gene manipulation and DNA sequencing.
Im no microbiologist, but doesnt it sounds like race specifice bioweapon specialists ???

‘That could mean an offensive agent, or a modified germ let loose by proxies, for which only China has the treatment or vaccine. “This is not warfare, per se,” he said. “But what it’s doing is leveraging the capability to act as global saviour, which then creates various levels of macro and micro economic and bio-power dependencies.”’

If Im not mistaken , the west hold the IP [sic] of all known virus.
So its not actually bioweapon now, [[[they]]] are worried the Chinese would be chipping at their monopoly !

‘China’s Biological Warfare Program
In a 2015 academic paper, Shoham – of Bar-Ilan’s Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies – asserts that more than 40 Chinese facilities are involved in bio-weapon production’

Heck its bioweapon again.
[[[They]]] asserts.……………………..!!!!!!
Enuff said.

Posted by: denk | Jan 27 2020 16:38 utc | 204

A note on the ‘cured’ category.
Cured is used inappropriately in translations of disease reports. It should be read and understood as the word recovered. Cured implies that medical treatment of some kind was responsible for eradicating the cause of the disease in a person. This is patently not true as of today – there is no known ‘cure’ for nCoV, and no known vaccine.
ALL the hospital care provided to nCoV patients in China is palliative – to relieve suffering and make the patients comfortable until they recover or die. That’s necessarily done in isolation for nCoV patients.
The 10-day hospitals are intended to be containment, isolation and palliative care facilities for the nCoV-infected, NOT ‘hospitals’ in any normal sense of the word. Those containment facilities can be used for nCoV treatment of the sick if a cure is found, but there is no known nCoV treatment today – only palliative care (management) of the symptoms.
These nCoV containment hospitals are still a good idea as they relieve each, individual hospital from the effort to run well beyond the capacity of their existing infectious disease wards. That is, if the 2000+ beds and staff and medical supplies can handle all the nCoV patients. Sorry to be so grim, but there’s no way in hell that’s happening now. They’ll really need five times that many by the end of this week, and Wuhan is going to start losing all the attention when other major cities have to do the same thing. There are only so many doctors, beds and medical supplies to go around when you have 1.4 billion people, even if it’s a ‘small’ epidemic. There wouldn’t be much difference in the US or Europe. No medical system anywhere has much extra infectious disease care capability.
Discussions of R&#x2080 is interesting, but everyone needs to keep in mind that it’s like driving by looking in your rear-view mirror. R&#x2080 is hindsight and subject to both the actual virulence of nCoV and the containment efforts. The first is a guess right now, and everyone has their own spin on the second.
Finally, SCMP reported that researchers (doctors) at Wuhan’s Jinyintan hospital describe patient zero showing up Dec. 1st with symptoms of a viral pneumonia, and only days later identified as nCoV. He had never been to the Wuhan Meat and Seafood Market or had any connection to it. And while his symptoms started at home days before being taken to the hospital, no one else in his family became infected or has since showed any symptoms. A later cluster of infections was associated with the market, but there was also a cluster associated with the big New Year’s feast in mid-December. I have no idea what that means besides they seem confused about the wild animal source despite the gene sequencing effort.

Posted by: PavewayIV | Jan 27 2020 16:41 utc | 205

This is an economic attack on China – Chinese New Year is a very important time for the economy.
Plus if the Wuhan residents have respiratory problems, this is more likely to be from the horrendous air pollution rather than a virus.
https://blog.nomorefakenews.com/2020/01/27/what-are-the-chinese-hiding-in-wuhan/

What are the Chinese hiding in Wuhan?
Yale Environment 360, April 17, 2018, “How a ‘Toxic Cocktail’ Is Posing a Troubling Health Risk in China’s Cities”:
“The foul air of dozens of fast-expanding cities across China contains cocktails of toxic contaminants unprecedented in the range of pollutants they contain at high concentrations…. China has the world’s most dangerous outdoor air pollution.”
“Three other cities listed as regularly suffering dangerous levels of four or five of the pollutants are Jining, also in Shandong, Wuhan in Hubei province, and Jiayuguan and Jinchang in Gansu. None of the seven appear in the lists of the ten most polluted Chinese cities published by the WHO or Chinese environment ministry.”
Lung disease—and no need to invoke a virus to explain it.
Getting the picture?
We have two major clues here. One, the distinct possibility of an economic warfare attack against Wuhan and, during the Chinese New Year, against all of China. And two, the use of a coronavirus cover story to obscure huge pollution dangers and put down protests against that pollution, through mass lockdowns and quarantines.

And of course another clue that this is total propaganda crap is the CIA videos going viral on the internet – see my earlier postings # 164 and #166

Posted by: John Doe | Jan 27 2020 16:43 utc | 206

—> National Health Commission (NHC) and WeChat, with 1.1 billion online mobile users, have jointly set up a new Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia Section.
As WeChat users, you can following the live update of the situation, find 1,512 designated hospitals and 11,594 fever clinics across whole China if they need one, and also find advice and explanation/ clarification from online medical experts.
—> Here is a live epidemic situation map in China for you to visually follow up.
1. The first map of China shows except Xizang (Tibet) that the virus has already spread to all the rest of China. The dark scarlet shows there are >1000 confirmed cases, which is in Hubei Province (Wuhan as its capital city).
Total Statistics till 2020-01-27 15:40（Beijing Time):
– 2,846 confirmed cases
– 81 deaths
– 56 cured/recovered (PS. About”cured/recovered” definition, pls read Chinese American @200)
– 5,794 suspected cases
2. The second chart shows the confirmed cases in red line, death numbers in black line, cured in green, and suspected cases in yellow.
3. Under this second chart, there is a list of all live updated confirmed/death/cured/suspected cases in each provinces and HK & Macao SARs in China as well as overseas.
The first list here is Hubei Province, which split into details for each city/county (region). For example, the top three infected cities/regions are Wuhan (698 confirmed, 63 deaths, 42 cured), Huang Gang (154 confirmed, 4 deaths, 2 cured), Xiao Gan (100 confirmed, 1 deaths).
<--- This high infected rates in these three cities/regions reflect the population immigration pattern around Wuhan. As provincial capital, Wuhan attracts people from nearby Huang Gang and Xiao Gan，both are ca 80 kilometers (ca 50 miles, 1-hour driving away) from Wuhan, and then other cities/regions within Hubei , and lastly from the rest of the country.
—> Another live situation update map .
There are lots of such live update and data readily available, but MSM and anti-China agitating teams will not bother themselves with the reality. Instead they focus on spinning false and dis-information to discredit China, Chinese and CCP and create prejudice among its audience against China/Chinese and panics for the benefit of the big racketeers.
This is truly tragic for all of us who want to live in peace with each other.

Posted by: lulu | Jan 27 2020 16:52 utc | 207

Sunny Runny Burger 193
No problem,
We’r cool.
Anyway, like I say, some are simply ignorant, plain stupid,
others are in denial, willfully obtuse but……….
some are downright assholes.
like this….
pft

China with its 1.4 billion population, much of it aging due to birth rates are at its lowest levels since the famines under Mao, is a big problem. Makes you wonder if they are working on a solution.

P.S.
nearly miss your post cuz you
didnt start with your addressee !

Posted by: denk | Jan 27 2020 16:56 utc | 208

John doe 206

, the use of a coronavirus cover story to obscure huge pollution dangers and put down protests against that pollution, through mass lockdowns and quarantines.

I’d rate that one as ‘pft class’
asshole.

Posted by: denk | Jan 27 2020 17:01 utc | 209

Thank God your blog not being on Twitter is all I can say! Coz 100% guaranteed it would at some point be ‘overtaken’ by the Borg astroturfers!…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nR0lOtdvqyg

Posted by: Jayne | Jan 27 2020 17:13 utc | 210

William Gruff 194
I saw that dr M too,
But these days I tend to concentrate on posting
comments instead of calling out every B.S. LIKE i used to.
Too many trolls., too little time.
Unless someone who’s downrigt obnoxious
like that pft character.

Posted by: denk | Jan 27 2020 17:15 utc | 211

—> The Potala Palace in Xizang (Tibet) is temporarily closed to public from 27/01 onward as a precautious measure to prevent the potential spread of novel coronavirus.
Actually, before the Chinese New Year, some very popular museums in China, such as Palace Museum，National Museum, National Library, Disney Shanghai Amusement Park, cinemas (in some cities) and tourist destinations announced their close-off for the time being.
<--- I guess the usual anti-China pro-Tibet (or shall I call pro-theocracy) teams will probably cry the much predictable foul against this close-off. ---> Good news: The tests of 11 out of the 14 infected doctors and nurses from Union Hospital in Wuhan are Negative! If the next tests of them after 24-hour also are negative, the 11 doctors and nurses will be released from the hospital.
<--- These 14 medical staff got infected during the operation of a patient with Pituitary adenoma, who only showed the symptoms of infection with novel coronavirus after the operation. So the doctors and nurses had not worn relevant protection gears during the operation.
Really happy for these 11 doctors and nurses, their families and friends. Pray for the other 3 to get well soon.
So far there are 15 medical staff have been infected. 11 are on their way recovery, 3 still in hospital, and is the last one the 62-year doctor whom I’ve briefly discussed @132?
<--- That the virus can spread and infect people during its 14-day incubation makes it much more dangerous. It's probably why the Chinese government, health authorities and experts are now all on high alert and try every possible ways to cut off and minimise the spread. I think the figures of infected cases will jump up in the coming days because people infected are going to show signs after 14 incubating days.

Posted by: lulu | Jan 27 2020 17:48 utc | 212

Denk: sorry about that 🙂
Vk & Denk and all: vk wrote a very good reply to DrM.
Phil: no problem and no reason to feel bad or apologize, when something is unfamiliar it’s pretty much impossible to ask questions entirely right. If anything you did well.

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Jan 27 2020 18:01 utc | 213

@lulu
Many thanks for your sterling reporting! There is nothing that clears away the garbled propaganda of the trolls more effectively than someone posting clear, concise, uniformly plausible and obviously well-informed facts, with links to live data.
TThe trolls are no match for you lulu!

Posted by: BM | Jan 27 2020 18:13 utc | 214

Posted by: William Gruff | Jan 27 2020 12:19 utc | 194
“It is my personal obsession to point out the most conspicuous paid State Department/Atlantic Council/CIA trolls when they invariably rear their vile, pimply little heads, so I must point out one of the most obvious new ones in this thread, DrM @154.”
It has always been my understanding that we are not to attack one another in posts. In so doing, one shows a basic lack of good manners and common decency.
I as well as my better half are both medical professionals in primary care, in small-town USA.
“3. “The problem w/ SARS is it killed too quickly… This new virus has a 10-14 day incubation period, meaning…”
Meaning “…we learned from our mistakes. We did a better job creating this new virus”
No, that was not my intent. My intent was to show that this new virus has the potential to spread more efficiently. Take Ebola as an example. Up to 90% case mortality rate, short incubation period. While scary and gruesome, this is not an effective pandemic agent, simply because of the shortened latency period.
The primary point of my three posts were to show the stats as being incorrect, and the reason they are incorrect is the single test that must be performed to establish Coronavirus, is not being done to ALL people exhibiting the symptoms. Because it is not being done, the actual mortality rate is substantially higher than what is being reported.
Here in the US, the one test kit is done only at the CDC in Atlanta, though realistically I can take a blood sample under a microscope and know if the person has the virus. They say it looks like a crown; I disagree, but then each of us have our own viewpoints derived from our own perspectives.
Also, I am not playing the blame game, and I do believe the Chinese people have come together as a nation to combat this.
This morning we have six confirmed cases in the US, with more than 100 whose testing is not yet complete.
Australia has 5, and the newest victim is a 21-yo otherwise healthy woman.
JP Morgan has advised its’ clients this will soon be classified as a global pandemic.
China has already confirmed the mortality rate (of those tested) is 5%; up from 3.8 yesterday.
B said that it is not time to panic, and on this I agree. Do not panic, but do prepare.
Enough said.

Posted by: DrM | Jan 27 2020 18:16 utc | 215

ANOTHER HUGE POINT
Mid-October, Johns Hopkins University sponsored Event 201, which is part of UN Agenda 21. This event was sponsored by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and was a pandemic preparation for the Coronovirus. Everything they addressed is now taking place, including news censorship.
In the exercise, the WHO would not take action until it was too late.
The single most interesting point of this exercise? The Coronavirus is PATENTED, and the owner of that patent is none other than Bill & Melinda Gates, and it is they who will profit from the vaccine being developed.
B, kindly research this point.

Posted by: DrM | Jan 27 2020 18:25 utc | 216

The reader is supposed to believe that it is normal for “medical professionals” to describe the “inefficient spread” of a contagion as a “problem” with that contagion. The reader is supposed to overlook the fact that this is precisely the terminology used to discuss bio-weapons, though.
The “problem” with these imperial trolls is that they believe their audiences to be knuckle-dragging, mouth-breathing morons. Where the typical American mass media consumer is concerned that is always a safe bet. Here at MoA? Not so much.

Posted by: William Gruff | Jan 27 2020 18:41 utc | 217

DrM @215
Sources of your claim that “China has already confirmed the mortality rate (of those tested) is 5%; up from 3.8 yesterday”?
According to the figures I posted @207, the mortality rate=81 dead/2854 confirmed=2.8461%.
BM @214
Thank you for your kind words!
I use my own time to do the updating and summary reporting when I come across the information or data that I think it may be interesting to the commentators and readers here. Hopefully it helps people to get some on-the-ground info/data out of the propaganda fog created by MSM and their online coordinating troll teams.
PavewayIV @205
Many thanks for explaining the difference between “cured” and “recovered”!
Question: how do you quantify the 11 infected Wuhan doctors and nurses whose tests are negative now and will be released if the next tests after 24-hour are also negative? Are you going to call them “cured” or “recovered”?
I am going to use “recovered/cured” in the next updating. Thanks again!

Posted by: lulu | Jan 27 2020 19:20 utc | 218

“…In the exercise, the WHO would not take action until it was too late…”
WHO is a nice idea, but useless as any kind of arbiter of absolute truth in practice. They’re information collectors from official sources. They’re advisors to member states. They are NOT experts in anything besides shaping policy narratives and coordinating efforts. Member states can justify actions based on WHO recommendations (when convenient), or just ignore them when they differ from national health directives. We’re still better off with WHO than without, but nobility of purpose shouldn’t be confused with ‘just another global layer of public health bureaucracy/government’.
WHO and its siblings have been thoroughly politicised to serve the agenda of the largest donors (government, NGO, industry), releasing information it wants governments/media to parrot and suppressing or obscuring otherwise ‘inconvenient’ data. Ever seen them criticize a member state’s health response? Ever see them call the Yemeni famine or cholera epidemic ‘man-made’? Their pronouncements should be considered with all the skepticism one holds for MSM articles that begin with “Government officials said…” Poor countries have no choice since WHO holds the international purse-strings for medical aid.
“…Everything they addressed is now taking place, including news censorship…”
So it seems. But my usual skepticism of the U.S. government would suggest its using the unfortunate event as a golden opportunity for a detailed study, classification and cataloging of dissent (your IP address, identity and social score). That information will be invaluable when the U.S. has to make similar questionable public health decisions. Like any psychopath, they can’t stand ANY dissent. Dissenters and sources of ‘fake news’ are the enemy that everyone must fight. ‘The authorities’ must be trusted and respected as compassionate nannies. Everyone else is a terrorist and (in the U.S.) goes to the camps.
“…The Coronavirus is PATENTED, and the owner of that patent is none other than Bill & Melinda Gates…”
Sorry, but utter bullshit, ‘DrM’. Coronavirus is an entire class of virii, and so are the subclass betacorornavirii. It’s as nonsensical of an idea as patenting spring water. The Chinese NIH published the never-seen nCoV sequence of 29,903 bases on 10Jan20, and the US CDC published their (Washington case) nearly identical one on the 20th. There were at least two dozen full sequences available last week. https://nextstrain.org/ncov
You can patent an existing (natural or man-made) genomic sequence, but nobody has ever patented nCoV. At best, they patented some piece of the genome of the more general class (beta coronavirus) that might have therapeutic potential.
Virologists have (so far) observed that the progenitor animal virus jumped from a single animal species, and the relatively small diversity of mutation suggests the first human infection was somewhere between Oct. 30th and Nov.29th. That agrees with the first (later confirmed) Wuhan patient presenting himself on Dec. 1st for treatment.

Posted by: PavewayIV | Jan 27 2020 19:43 utc | 219

lulu@218 – I have no idea. Last I heard, the Chinese NIH was using some kind of DNA test unknown to the rest of the world and they haven’t given any details. Something that has frustrated virologists who rely on the traditional method. We don’t know if these doctors/nurses had nCoV, some other coronavirus, or something that just presents itself with flu-like symptoms. Unexplained by NIH so far.

Posted by: PavewayIV | Jan 27 2020 19:48 utc | 220

Nature published re. “bat” Coronavirus in 2015
https://www.nature.com/articles/nm.3985
New Scientist published re. a lab-made Coronavirus in 2017
https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/lab-made-coronavirus-triggers-debate-34502
I agree the scare-mongering is often hyped, for many purposes, one being merely not to be taxed with denying dangers, vilified for not taking precautions, etc. In these situations, authorities (when trust is broken!) can’t win – they scare ppl for nothing and are hated – or they reassure falsely and are hated…WHO is supposed to oversee this stuff. WHO has a lot of expertise but politics gets in the way, and prevention of course is a monumental job that falls on National or Local Gvmts.
Ex. study of various Corona viruses..from one author. Link to google scholar – an ex. of sci. papers
https://bit.ly/2Gt5GhI
Imho right now there is not enough information to make a considered judgment about anything concerning this latest scare about a possible pandemic.
b thx for the pic by beq, v. good, old times.

Posted by: Noirette | Jan 27 2020 19:57 utc | 221

Ever notice that those who have been
most concerned about overpopulation, and best described as neomalthusians like the Rockefellers (also one of the founders of Eugenics) and Gates are also the most pro vaccine (supposedly keeps people alive longer) and man made Global Warming alarmists (solution is lower living standards with higher energy costs reducing consumption). During WWI soldiers were given experimental vaccines developed by the Rockefeller Institute at the base that was supposedly Ground Zero for the Spanish Flu. Obviously just a coincidence.
Another thing of interest is supposedly a high-level pandemic exercise (Event 201) hosted by the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security in NW in partnership with the World Economic Forum and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. This was conducted in October , 6 weeks before the first illness from the coronavirus was actually reported in Wuhan. What a coincidence . This involved a pandemic simulation of a coronavirus outbreak. Officials from China were allegedly on the emergency epidemic board in this simulation . BTW, interesting timing on the trade deal. So many coincidences.
Meanwhile the CDC is recommending people get vaccines. However, the only vaccines available are for flu and studies show that those who get flu shots are more susceptible to other upper respiratory infections.
NIH is hard at work with Big Pharma in developing a vaccine for the coronavirus. Expect this to be fast tracked. Little or no safety testing. As with all vaccines, no liability for the makers. Maybe you can choose not to get one, maybe not. Remember 1976 and 2009 swine flu vaccines is all I can say.
As for the incubation period, its 1-14 days allegedly, with an average of 10 days. Apparently they want to justify detaining asymptomatic based on a screening test under development that is probably of dubious validity given the short time frame prevents proper scientific studies with a control group (eg could have a high false positive rate)

Posted by: Pft | Jan 27 2020 20:27 utc | 222

OOoops! From 26 Jan:
WHO nCoV Situation Report 6

….WHO’s assessment of the risk of this event has not changed since the last risk assessment conducted on 22 January: very high in China, high at the regional level and high at the global level.&#179

…

&#179 Note: Error in situation reports published on 23,24 and 25 January as originally published, which incorrectly summarized the risk for global level to be moderate.

Oh, just a simple mistake – no longer to be reflected in the history of WHO’s exemplary response so far. OK, let’s go with that, WHO footnote butt-saving bureaucrats! Remember to wash your hands.

Posted by: PavewayIV | Jan 27 2020 20:39 utc | 223

@vk
China is more susceptible to epidemics because it has more people and more animals, therefore more random mutations on viruses and bacteria.
China has had problems over the last 3 years. Avian flu hit the chicken industry hard in 2017. Swine flu in 2019 did the same to pork. Now this.
It is just a coincidence that Bill Gates is invested in vaccines and that company (PirBridge ?) patented a coronavirus vaccine in 2015.
No reason at all to think Gates et al are trying to create a demand for their supply. None at all.
Things just happen. It’s nature.
I wonder if it is possible to do a forensic audit of a virus via tissue samples, etc. I am really interested to see if things are ‘just happening’ or if their is an actual concerted effort to wage bio-war against China by benevolent Billionaires like Bill Gates.
Strange how America and Israel’s enemies have missiles falling on them and now China has the flue right before New Year. Just strange coincidences I guess

Posted by: dorje | Jan 27 2020 21:11 utc | 224

CDC Alert:

This outbreak began in early December 2019 and continues to grow …

How fortuitous that the outbreak occurred just after the ARAMACO IPO:

CNN December 5th: Saudi Aramco raises $25.6 billion in the world’s biggest IPO
Saudi Arabia has just pulled off the biggest initial public offering in history, raising $25.6 billion by selling shares in its giant state-owned oil monopoly… The IPO values Aramco at roughly $1.7 trillion

<> <> <> <> <> <> <>
Who’s paying for Trump’s “Deal of the Century” that pays Palestinians to move out of Palestine? Isn’t a substantial portion of those funds coming from the Saudis?
!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Jan 27 2020 22:10 utc | 225

PRC Update: Wuhan Flu
60+Million Under Quarantine.
State of Martial Law
Military Doctors and Nurses being brought in.
2 Brand New 1200 bed Hospitals under construction.
Social Media being scrubbed on a regular basis: nurses, doctors, etc are posting videos where they are sobbing, in tears and breaking down; soldiers in hazmat suits with machine guns; physical barriers being created to maintain quarantine at exit/entry points to 15 major cities.
This is not a normal flu event. This is really, really serious. When the final numbers come in, it is not going to be a couple hundred dead like SARS. This will be big and sick people (now disease vectors) left China and cases are showing up in over a dozen countries: Vietnam, France, Canada, Malaysia, US, Phillipines etc, etc.
So far: 42 dead 39 recovered and ~ 1400 known sick. If half of those 1400 die then we already have over 500 casualties and this things is nowhere near ended.
Patient zero, supposedly, got sick December 1, 2019. 14 day incubation with zero symptoms means lots are going to continue to come down with this thing and many of those will die of pneumonia, particularly the young and old.
I think the Chinese gov’t is sh!tt!ng bricks right now. This thing spun out of control because they weren’t able to react fast enough.
It’s quite possible this could be the big one but that will only become clear with time. I would love to have access to satellite imagery right now.

Posted by: dorje | Jan 27 2020 23:09 utc | 226

FWIW. this is “viral pneumonia” –
China starts developing vaccine against novel coronavirus – newspaper
Scientists from the center have successfully isolated the virus
BEIJING, January 26. /TASS/. The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention has started developing a vaccine against coronavirus of the new type 2019-nCoV that causes pneumonia, China Daily has reported.TASS
and in the interim to developing a vaccine –
“About 30 current drugs effective against new coronavirus,” says ex-chief sanitary inspector
Twelve of them are medicines that are used to treat the HIV infection

MOSCOW, January 27./TASS/. About 30 existing medical drugs are effective against the 2019-nCoV coronavirus recently discovered in China, said Gennady Onishchenko, former head of the Federal Service for Supervision of Consumer Rights Protection and Human Well-Being, on Monday.
“I want to allay our public’s concerns. There are already about 30 medical drugs that we have that are effective in treating this virus,” said Onishchenko, who is now the First Deputy Head of the State Duma’s (lower house) Committee for Education and Science. “Twelve of them are medicines that we use to treat the HIV infection, and give to our HIV-infected children as a preventive measure,” he told the radio station, [.]

Posted by: Likklemore | Jan 27 2020 23:37 utc | 227

Greetings. Two points: First, with respect to the families who have lost loved ones, the death toll is now what? Perhaps 100 people. Tens of 1000s of peeps die every year in murkan hospitals due to MISTAKES. We don’t hear any panic there. Stock market doesn’t crash, etc. etc. There is an interesting article in Counterpunch by Patrick Cockburn about a polio panic in Ireland. He is a survivor. He has an interesting take on the reality of panics.
Second: in Seeking Alpha today is a notice as follows: Florida company Star Brite sells a patented EPA approved cleaning agent (chlorine dioxide) which is effective against coronavirus which obviously means that containment is possible. Not a cure, but a big help. So maybe the world can calm down just a tad.
Sorry – I don’t do links but DuckDuckGo is ever ready….

Posted by: Miss Lacy | Jan 28 2020 15:18 utc | 228

Posted by: Miss Lacy | Jan 28 2020 15:18 utc | 228
Yep, we’re all going to die, not news at all. The only times panic is useful involve charging predators or avalanches coming at you, that sort of thing. This is vanilla life really, and the first thing is to stay calm and pay attention.

Posted by: Bemildred | Jan 28 2020 15:47 utc | 229

If you are afraid, then buy yourself and yoru family large quantities of good-quality vitamin C and learn to use it.

Posted by: benito | Jan 28 2020 16:23 utc | 230

Latest Update
Total Statistics till 2020-01-28 17:33（Beijing Time):
– 4,633 confirmed cases
– 106 deaths
– 73 recovered/cured (About”cured/recovered” definition, pls read Chinese American @200)
– 6972 suspected cases
—> live epidemic situation map in China (It seems the first link posted @207 doesn’t work, re-post it here again.)
1. The first map of China shows Xizang (Tibet) is still the only place not infected. The dark scarlet shows there are >1000 confirmed cases, and it is in Hubei Province (Wuhan).
<---Latest: Anyone who travels to Xizang (Tibet) now must be required to quarantine for 14-day.
2. The second chart shows the confirmed cases in red line, death numbers in black line, cured in green, and suspected cases in yellow.
3. The list under this second chart shows all live updated confirmed/death/recovered/ (cured)/suspected cases in each provinces and HK & Macao SARs in China as well as overseas.
The numbers in Hubei Province continue growing: 2714 confirmed, 100 deaths, 52 recovered/cured .
Follow by Guangdong province 207 confirmed, 4 recovered/cured), Zhejiang province (173 confirmed, 3 recovered/cured).
Only 6 deaths out of Hubei (Wuhan) province.
<--- Good news: a 89-year old grandma among 5 patients in Wuhan has been released from hospital today. She was in severe conditions when she was brought in, couldn’t eat and had had miocardial infarction in December.
<--- National Health Commission (NHC) has issued Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia Treatment (4th draft). It says that majority of patients react well (to the treatment), children’s symptoms are relatively mild, small number of the patients’ get worse. Old patients and patients with other long-term diseases are susceptible to death.
—> Another live update map
<---Note 1: Here the numbers are slightly different to those in the first link due to their different update time(s). <---Note 2: Here the infected map of China is not correctly updated: some infected provinces are still left in white instead of being coloured as infected. Different to the live map of the first link, here the dark scarlet shows that there are >100 confirmed cases (instead of >1000 as the first one). That’s why on this map there are several provinces are coloured in dark scarlet.
Due to these reasons, beware of the disparity in these maps or any other live maps, charts and numbers that you may see online.
—>As mention yesterday, National Health Commission (NHC) and Tencent (WeChat’s mother company), have jointly set up Fever Clinics/Hospitals Map for new Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia, which covers the whole China: 363 cities, 1,512 designated hospitals and 11,594 clinics.
Baidu, China’s biggest search engine, has also issued APP: Baidu Live info, which provides the users with live information about the latest control/restriction of public transportation, self-driving and traveling; live virus spread situation map and designated clinics/hospitals for Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia treatment.

Posted by: lulu | Jan 28 2020 16:43 utc | 231

PavewayIV @|220
These doctors/nurses were confirmed with nCoV infection. I wrote clearly in my post@212 how they got infected with nCoV via operation of a patient with Pituitary adenoma. This patient only started to show the symptoms of infection with nCoV after the operation. So the doctors and nurses had not worn relevant protection gears during the operation.
3 of them are released from the hospital today after their second negative test, 24-hour after the first negative test.
More photos of the 3 recovered/cured doctors/nurses from local newspaper.

Posted by: lulu | Jan 28 2020 17:06 utc | 232

Lulu: thank you for all the information. I’m aware the virus could get much worse (or much better) and the numbers will grow quite a lot either way before anything is over, still in my own opinion (with a generally positive bias) China and the Chinese have done as well or better than anyone could have done or can be expected to do.
“Add oil” China 🙂

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Jan 28 2020 17:11 utc | 233

Pft 222. Bill Gates opened up the Global Fund to fight AIDS, TB, Malaria.
https://www.theglobalfund.org/en/
The Global Fund partnership mobilizes and invests more than US$4 billion a year to support programs run by local experts in more than 100 countries.
The B and M Gates Foundation just donated 500 million to it.
The effort was to compete with WHO (funded internationally like the UN and supposedly taking decisions collectively and in a ‘fair, democratic’ fashion) thus effectively rendering this type of effort private and charitable. On a global scale! without oversight (except financial in part maybe… as a ‘charity’ etc. which doesn’t mean much.) — The Fund poached experts away from WHO and national bodies.
Neo-malthusianism and Eugenics (aka some forms of ‘racialism’) appear to go hand in hand, I agree Pft. But then you have globalisation and neo-liberalism, to have ‘growth’ in the ‘W’ you need to believe in ‘development’ – aka often a form of neo-colonialim – to have more workers, more consumers, more producers (of everything and anything..) which does mean saving lives cheaply and mixing populations etc.
/this is not an argument for/against WHO or the Global Fund. the models are different/

Posted by: Noirette | Jan 28 2020 17:14 utc | 234

National Health Commission (NHC) explains why so few patients are released.
The reasons are:
1). The dramatic increase of patients with confirmed nCoV infection just starts in recent days.
It takes 1-week to recover/cure for patients with mild symptoms, 2-week for those with severe symptoms.
2). NHC standards/definition for recovered/cured patients infected with nCoV to be released are:
– firstly, symptoms get alleviated;
– secondly, temperature drops back to normal;
– thirdly, only after two negative nucleic acid tests, it then can be sure that the patients pose no danger of infection contamination/contagion to other people. Only then the patients can be released.
<--- My guess is that we probably will see more recovered/cured patients in coming two weeks. NHC also says there 30 medical teams (4,130 doctors/nurses) from all over China have arrived Wuhan and are now working in Hubei (Wuhan) to treat patients infected with nCoV.

Posted by: lulu | Jan 28 2020 17:48 utc | 235

lulu@232 – Sourced mostly from [here]
Mr. Zhao – the patient – was in the hospital more than 15 days before he showed signs of an infection. It was five days after the Jan. 8th operation that his symptoms became severe enough that he was moved to isolation, so around Jan 13th. On Jan. 15th, they used the new nCoV test on him and confirmed (for the first time) that he had nCoV. He was moved to Wuhan Jinyintan Hospital where nCoV patients were sent, at the time.
Some of the operation staff from Union Hospital started coming down with fevers on the 13th, which resulted in:

For the fever of medical staff, the hospital immediately opened a special isolation ward for isolation placement.

Of course the hospital is going to claim Zhao was the source, but they have no idea. If he didn’t have symptoms before or when admitted on Dec. 30th, then he must have had an unusually long incubation period of 15 – 16 days. How about the possibility that he contracted it from one of the operating staff during the operation? That would be consistent with a five-day incubation period for everyone else including Zhao.
Other staff at the hospital were infected and isolated (not clear of timing), just like the operating staff. Other patients were infected at the time, and Zhao was moved around a lot before and after the operation. Some kind of hospital cross-infection occurred, but I have to wonder if Zhao was the source or a victim.
Suspicious:

In the notice issued by the Wuhan Health Commission at 23:55 on the 16th, there was no mention of infection among medical staff.

Now that’s damn curious since 1) Zhao’s nCoV was confirmed just the day before, and 2) the hospital staff involved in his operation had been in isolation – some with fevers – since the 13th. It’s inconceivable that they hadn’t been tested by the 16th, and also impossible for the Wuhan Health Commission not to have know about Zhou and the Union Hospital staff with fevers and in isolation. Three days later:

…the fourth floor has set up the medical staff isolation room, the suspected infection medical staff has been placed in the hospital on the 19th, and more than 20 medical staff are suspected to be infected at the peak of the highest peak.

So now there’s six more staff ‘suspected to be infected’.
I’m not blaming the hospital or staff here – they were not sure about transmission or incubation periods of nCoV and obviously didn’t understand the extent of the hospital’s contamination in Mid-Jan. Nobody knew about Zhao (if he was even the source). But they had to have infected dozens of other patients prior to showing symptoms themselves. Unfortunate, but not intentional. Now where is that report? Well, there wasn’t any.
That was a crucial piece of epidemiological information that should have been relayed to infectious disease authorities internationally. Face-saving by the hospital or Wuhan Health Commission, instead, caused even more unnecessary confusion both within China and internationally. This could easily happen at any hospital anywhere in the early stages of an infectious disease – China doesn’t get a pass for complicating understanding by hiding uncomfortable information.
The one bright spot in China’s surprising transparency – sharing the genome sequence – is eclipsed by this ham-fisted effort to obscure a widespread hospital cross-infection.

Posted by: PavewayIV | Jan 28 2020 18:47 utc | 236

Latest (28/01/2020) Interview with professor Zhong Nanshan, specialist for respiratory virus diseases, who kicked start the fighting of SARS in 2002, and is currently in charge of the nation-wide team to coordinate the fight of the novel coronavirus.
Key points:
—> It’s hard to say for certain when the nCoV infection will reach its peak. However, he estimates that it probably will peak within 1-week or 10-day, and after that there shouldn’t be any large scale infection.
—> Scientists are trying to identify the virus intermediate reservoir/carrier(?) . (Sorry not sure about the correct English term). The initial carrier of 2019 nCoV is found in bats , but the virus intermediate reservoir/carrier(?) is yet to be identified.
—> Need both infectious-disease specialists and critical care specialists to save/take better care of the patients.
—> Till now, there is no fully-targeted medicine for 2019 nCoV. However scientists and doctors have already worked out some treatment solutions, and with the help of life science the death rate will certainly drop down.
—> Having fever is still the typical symptom of nCoV infection.
—> Incubation period of nCoV infection is 10-14 days. After the incubation period, people either get treated for their infection, or they simple don’t get infected. However it is necessary to continue the screening measures.
—> As said before Chinese New Year, it’s better to not travel around, esp. around Wuhan. This is about the health not only of yourselves but also the whole society.
—> Keys to take control of this infection are early diagnosis and early treatment. These two measures are the simplest but most effective ones.

Posted by: lulu | Jan 28 2020 19:08 utc | 237

@ 182 Peter AN
Hey Pete, wrt your correlating India and Chinese eating practices, I will say that India leans vegetarian in many respects, reveres the cow and does not partake in its consumption. These are basic facts about India that I would say separate it from China, which will eat indiscriminately every stinking thing that crawls, slithers, or flys.
Water-borne and gut-related illness is probably much more prolific in India, but just as Steven Soderberg’s film ‘Contagion’ detailed avian flu jumping ship into swine and thereby mutating and ready for human consumption, the Chinese have it all over most other countries when it comes to their indiscriminate meat consumption and veracity therein. There is speculation that bat consumption is the culprit here with the Coronavirus and so the Chinese gov’t has responded by banning these “exotic” and growing trends in Chinese eating.
…
I find it peculiar that calling China out for this is immediately met with accusations that one is a China-hater or a plant for the West MIC or what have you. It is well known that China does not practice safety in its production and ignores many industrial bans such as lead paint on child toys for Americans or using melamime in baby formula which was discovered in 2008.
I am sure it has to do with their massive population and lag when it comes to government enforcement of safety standards. They like their meat and they like their buck. And they gonna have it.

Posted by: Nemesiscalling | Jan 28 2020 19:27 utc | 238

lulu@237 – “…Incubation period of nCoV infection is 10-14 days…”
Come on, lulu… Why wouldn’t you question that number even if Prof. Zhong did say exactly that? I don’t think he did. I’m not attacking you for trying to provide information, but it is not accurate the specific way you have it worded.
We know from many past reports that the incubation period can be as little as two days. I think even you posted that, too.
I’ve seen this ‘new’ incredibly long incubation period repeated in a lot of other publications – both Chinese (machine translated) and english, so I’m not picking on you. Nobody really questions the odd, revised number but repeats it without question. Example:
The incubation period IS 10 – 14 days is a materially different and inaccurate statement compared to
The incubation period CAN BE AS LONG AS 10-14 days .
I understand the incubation period to be anywhere from 2 to 14 days.
Google translation from the article you posted:

Zhong Nanshan: 10 to 14 days is a good period of isolation and observation. The incubation period has passed.

To english-only audiences (me), he is describing the safe, minimum amount of time (good period) of isolation and observation necessary to cover the entire possible incubation period. That makes sense to me. He does not say the incubation period itself is 10 – 14 days.
I’m not suggesting this is a deliberate attempt by China to confuse people at all. Somewhere in all the translated Chinese statements, for whatever reason, this is being interpreted and reported (incorrectly) as 10 – 14 day incubation period. Translations – especially machine translations like Google – are notoriously bad at picking up subtle differences in phrase meanings like this. Maybe you have some insight on the actual Chinese words used.

Posted by: PavewayIV | Jan 28 2020 20:26 utc | 239

Sunny Runny Burger @ 233
Thank you very much!

Tonight 8:00pm (28/01/2020) these Wuhan-ers, who have been staying put at home since the lock-down, open their windows shouting “Add oil” to their city and singing songs. :)))
I read it online that this is initiated by Wuhan people via social media WeChat. It’s called “Let’s Open Our Windows and Sing”.
They are tough guys!
A few days ago, thousands of Wuhan people with private cars organised via WeChat to volunteer to dive the doctors and nurses back and forth to work after the city shut down the public transportation as prevention measure.
Now Wuhan government has organised the out of operation public buses to transport the doctors and nurses, and also rents some hotels nearby the hospitals for the doctors and nurses to rest.
Some people with apartments near the hospitals give their apartments to doctors and nurses for free use.
With support coming from all over China, such as, medical teams consisting of over 4,000 doctors/nurses now, vegetables and food, under construction Wuhan Huoshenshan Hospital for designated treatment coming into shape and donations from big companies to ordinary overseas Chinese, China will beat the nCoV virus in due course.

Posted by: lulu | Jan 28 2020 20:45 utc | 240

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3047956/china-coronavirus-hong-kong-researchers-have
“Hong Kong researchers have already developed a vaccine for the deadly Wuhan coronavirus…… Scientists in mainland China and the United States were also separately racing to produce a vaccine for the new coronavirus,….”
Disclaimer: JC a 3rd generation overseas Chinese after 1911 revolution. Huanggang Hubei my ancestor home.

Posted by: JC | Jan 28 2020 20:59 utc | 241

Wuhan News – World Breaking News
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mIK1VCdkV7Y
Wuhan Restaurant owner begging for help because his business suffered from Wuhan being locked down

Posted by: JC | Jan 28 2020 21:53 utc | 242

JC@241
‘Producing the vaccine’ to these scientists really just means making a trial vaccine for 1) months of testing on animals followed by 2) at least a year of human trials if they expedite testing. So maybe ready for use by summer of 2021 if every stage in the trials are successful.
This first vaccine gives us hope, but it doesn’t have to be successful. They will likely produce additional, different versions of trial nCoV vaccines and start testing them as well. More trial vaccines means a better chance of producing the safest and most effective one possible even if many fail.

“We have already produced the vaccine, but it will take a long time to test on animals,” Yuen said, without giving a specific time frame on when it would be ready for patients. But he said it would take months to test the vaccine on animals and at least another year to conduct clinical trials on humans before it was fit for use.

HKU and Yuan have completed the important first step of isolating an interesting part of the nCoV virus structure and incorporating it in a known flu vaccine. Many other labs in Mainland China and around the world are trying somewhat different approaches and will probably announce that they have also produced a trial vaccine in the next few weeks or months. All those trial vaccines will still have to go through the same year-and-a-half of animal testing followed by human testing.
Producing a vaccine for trial is not the same as producing a fully-tested vaccine for safe human use.
Lots of smart people in China and abroad are working on both a vaccine and effective treatments. Good luck to them all.

Posted by: PavewayIV | Jan 28 2020 22:27 utc | 243

Posted by: lulu | Jan 28 2020 20:45 utc | 240
Thanks for continuing to update here for those who will read it!
I’d like to repeat a point that I was hoping to make earlier. Namely, there is a lot more information (constantly updated) in Chinese, compared to what is being reported in English language media, MSM or otherwise. If you are theorizing/speculating based only what you’ve been reading in foreign media, you are doing so based on a small fraction of the information.
And oh, by the way, to the poster (@226) who was attempting to spread BS about military doctors in Wuhan, “martial law”, “machine guns”, etc. (among other nonsense): here’s a hint. If you are trying to spread panic about disasters in China, going on about the Chinese military being there is just about the least credible approach. Go ahead. Think about why. It might even challenge some of your assumptions.

Posted by: Chinese American | Jan 28 2020 23:49 utc | 244

Posted by: lulu | Jan 28 2020 20:45 utc | 240
Thanks for link to “Wuhan add oil”. We are all Chinese!
https://haokan.baidu.com/v?pd=wisenatural&vid=2657511800911403108

Posted by: JC | Jan 29 2020 7:45 utc | 245

The Russians state that they have 30 drugs that are effective on this latest coronavirus including 12 used for HIV.
See here: https://tass.com/world/1113265

Posted by: Anon3 | Jan 29 2020 7:54 utc | 246

Duran has article “Is This Man…” in re CVirus. His notion is that the Chinese fubar’d in the lab…seems reasonable. Not my subject though.
(And I never worry about getting sick… I do refuse injections when these are unnecessary though, and when there is no informed consent. Most US medical people that I have met don’t know anything about medicine or chemistry or physics and themselves are unable to give informed consent themselves, but don’t realize their ignorance. I will give surgeons a pass…many are very skilled, and know their field well. One can become a licensed pharmacist in California with zero knowledge of chemistry, never taken even one class in chem.)

Posted by: Walter | Jan 29 2020 13:55 utc | 247

There’s been an alarming development in the Coronavirus (manufactured) crisis. I’ve been following news reports on the spread of the virus since mid-January. The vast majority of infected individuals are in the region of China designated as the original source of the epidemic.
It is noteworthy that China’s efforts to prevent the spread of the virus beyond China seem to have been hugely successful. To date there have been only a handful of infected individuals, in a handful of countries, outside China.
That seems likely to change thanks to AmeriKKKa and a few of its vassals. AmeriKKKa and its vassals Japan and Oz, have decided that selected nationals of each country residing in China should be urgently repatriated to their respective Homeland. Apart from mawkish sentimentality/ bathos considerations, this knee-jerk move is an inane and stupid repudiation of China’s HIGHLY SUCCESSFUL regional quarantine strategy.
Some Japanese nationals have rejected their government’s offer to ‘rescue’ them arguing that they would rather endure China’s quarantine restrictions, and trust China’s treatment competence, than to reurn to Japan to be imprisoned in a cell.
Oz PM Scum Mo, aka Mr Glib, is going to send repatriated Oz citzens to the Christmas Island Immigration detention centre where almost every detainee who gets sick becomes seriously ill or dies due to the complete lack of medical facilities and competent medical personnel.

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Jan 29 2020 16:09 utc | 248

ONE QUESTION: How do you stop a virus that is spread by people that show NO SYMPTOMS of being infected!?

Posted by: Pete | Jan 29 2020 16:54 utc | 249

Pete | Jan 29 2020 16:54 utc | 249 (How do you…)
It’s primitive. You quarantine, with guns etc, as necessary. At Nuremberg one of the nazis, a doctor I think, was accused of murdering an entire barracks block of ladies because of an epidemic. His defense was that they would have died anyway. His way is yet another form of “quarantine”.
I think he was hanged. But that was long ago, and most German nazis were “rehabilitated”, at least in the freedom loving democracies. The filthy commies shot most of the ones they caught, according to Grossman (and old expat red diaper kid who oughta know, since he’s lived in DDR since he swam the Danube.
It’ll burn out. Forget about it, just part of the freak show of history.

Posted by: Walter | Jan 29 2020 18:36 utc | 250

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Jan 29 2020 16:09 utc | 248
“Some Japanese nationals have rejected their government’s offer to ‘rescue’ them arguing that they would rather endure China’s quarantine restrictions, and trust China’s treatment competence, than to reurn to Japan to be imprisoned in a cell….”
Last night RT News feed.. >below> Most likely Huawei will participat in Canada, NZ, Aussie 5G as RT Boom Bust presenter’s Christy Ai said, including Germany and France will follows… Did you know before Singapore independent from her colonial UK master in 1961 Christmas and Coco Island were under Singapore jurisdiction, the first Chief Minister Lim Yew Hock (self government before independent) sold it to Australia… Christmas Island was rich in phosphores basically bird shit. Wikipedia is WRONG and I stand correct.
I’m all for China!!
https://www.rt.com/news/479511-passengers-applaud-plane-wuhan-coronavirus/?utm_source=browser&utm_medium=aplication_chrome&utm_campaign=chrome
WATCH: Stranded Chinese passengers applaud as plane reroutes to quarantined Wuhan, “The crew of a Juneyao Airlines flight from Osaka to Shanghai volunteered to take stranded tourists directly to quarantined Wuhan after seeking special dispensation from Chinese authorities in an incredible display of solidarity……”

Posted by: JC | Jan 29 2020 20:27 utc | 251

Many of you have called me out as a CIA troll or state department shill. Even B told me by private email that I am full of shit on every single point I made, and as such I can expect to be called out as a liar.
I stated the R-O was between 1.4 and up, and then later clarified this as closer to 5, meaning it is spreading rapidly, and was told this is utter bull****.
Herein is one of four sources I took this from. https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.916395v1
I stated that w/ a 1-14 incubation period, an exposed person is rather likely to expose many others prior to themselves showing symptoms, and was told I am basically full of ****. Even the CDC admits this fact that infected people are spreading the dsiease. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3047701/coronavirus-contagious-even-incubation-stage-chinas-health
I stated that since more than 5 million form Wuhan alone had already departed, and many more potentially exposed persons allowed to leave prior to any lockdown, this really cannot be contained. The many airline flights that continue have prevented any containment. I was told I am full of ****. Here is just one of my sources: https://www.worldpop.org/events/china
I stated this will most likely become a global pandemic, and B himself told me not to post such “utter bull**** on his blog. https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Event 201 modeling projections from October of last year said ~69 million will die. Event 201 (go ahead and look it up) stated the Coronavirus was patented, and the company that owed the patent was the Gates Foundation.
Other countries have confirmed cases of H2H transmission of people who were never in China. The first of these cases was in Japan, the 2nd in Germany, the 3rd in Taiwan. Many cities even here in the US are establishing hotlines; emergency call centers, and I ask, if all this is for no real reason, why spend millions preparing?
I am simply saying you should prepare, and this is common sense.
Those who wish to badmouth me, go ahead.

Posted by: DrM | Jan 29 2020 21:59 utc | 252

@252 When I read in 3 different places that Chinese doctors and others were saying that this virus is spread before people show symptoms, I came to the same reluctant conclusion, pandemic, I hope we are both wrong.

Posted by: Pete | Jan 29 2020 22:54 utc | 253

The Lancet, which is a Medical Journal (to which I subscribe) as well as the source of several previous posts, states the case mortality Rate, though some call it the Case Fatality Rate, is substantially higher than cited.
They say 11%, though numbers I am getting from elsewhere say 10-15%. Why the huge discrepancy? Chinese are taking deceased straight to crematoria. This journal previously stated the infection rate “may be as high as 83%.”
I am simply saying you should prepare, BEFORE the news is announced and before the supply chain ceases. If you get the essentials and end up not needing them, you sill still use it over time.

Posted by: DrM | Jan 29 2020 23:13 utc | 254

DrM thanks for your posts.
Here is additional like cycle into on the coronavirus for those who can understand the information.
https://www.theautomaticearth.com/2020/01/2019-ncov/

Posted by: krollchem | Jan 29 2020 23:14 utc | 255

This comments section is a piece of work entirely.
Thanks for pointing me down another rabbit hole, Caitlin.

Posted by: BAR | Jan 30 2020 19:59 utc | 256

I see a whole bunch of nonsense comments about “CIA propaganda trolls” yet I have yet to see even a single example. Maybe they were all dirty deleted.
Meanwhile, the only alarmism I see here are conspiracy theories about how 2019-nCoV was a western engineered bioweapon designed to undermine China.
A whole lot of projection is going on here.

Posted by: BAR | Jan 30 2020 20:18 utc | 257

Perhaps doctor M is a CIA troll. My guess is he is not. I am educated in mathematics for research in biology and related sciences. I have found nothing moronic in what he wrote. On the other side, he did not smell the bullshit in this story of a Chinese agent who stole the virus from Canada. So what? If he is what he said, then he understand international politics like a physician, not like the seasoned geopolitical commentator which he’s not.
By the way I want to correct a very common error: many people compute the death rate by dividing the numbers for the dead by the numbers of confirmed cases. But they don’t understand that it’s wrong to use both numbers which are released at the same time. The reason is that many of the confirmed cases are too fresh. They didn’t materially have enough time to eventually meet their deadly fate. Therefore numbers for deads must be compared to numbers of confirmed cases from the day when the deceased was himself only a new confirmed case. This is specially relevant here because the numbers are speedily increasing: on average they are quadrupling every five days. This means that at any time only one fourth of confirmed cases are five days old or older. For the easiness of the explanation, let’s say there’s also five days between “a new case confirmed” and “death” for this case. With this hypothesis , for 3/4th of those confirmed on day D, the virus would need a few more days to kill. At D+5, the number of deads will be completed, but the number of confirmed will have quadrupled… Therefore we should compare the total number of deaths which is released today with the number of confirmed from five days ago, which is four times smaller. This would give a death rate four times higher.

Posted by: Parisian Guy | Jan 30 2020 21:38 utc | 258

Hub staff report /
Published
March 1, 2019
The U.S. government is quietly funding controversial scientific research to create airborne versions of highly infectious diseases, and the results of an experimental accident could be catastrophic, two public health researchers write in an op-ed published by The Washington Post today.
Read on –
https://hub.jhu.edu/2019/02/28/inglesby-airborne-bird-flu/

Posted by: Amarka | Jan 30 2020 21:58 utc | 259

(Sorry too busy yesterday to post here. I will keep on providing the info I come across inside China for people who are really interested to know what’s happening inside China regarding novel coronavirus, till the turning point comes. )
Now the latest Update from China
—> Fnation-wide accumulated total statistics till midnight 2020-01-30 18:17 （Beijing Time):
– 8,163 confirmed cases
– 171 deaths, of which 162 from Hubei Province (129 in Wuhan)
– 136 recovered/cured, of which 90 from Hubei (54 in Wuhan)
– 12,167 suspected cases (<--- Bad news: Xizang/Tibet has 1 confirmed case) - Beijing has 121 confirmed cases, 1 death, 5 recovered/cured. Between 08:00 -20:00, there are 7 confirmed in Beijing, of which two came from Hubei Province, 5 had close contacts with infected nCoV patients . <--- It is clear that close and direct contacts with infected patients are responsible for the quick and wide spread of this infectious virus. ---> According to China’s NHC report, till midnight 29/02/2020, there are 88,693 who have come into close contacts with infected patients have been traced down. 2364 are released from medical monitoring/quarantine(?), total 81,947 people are under medical monitoring/quarantine.
<--- Hopefully it will peak in a-week or 10-day as professor Zhong Nanshan, leading specialist for respiratory disease and academician of Chinese Academy of Engineering (CAE), said in his interview. (His key talking points of the interview posted @237)

Posted by: lulu | Jan 30 2020 22:17 utc | 260

Very strange the preview doesn’t show my full post; When trying to post it, it only shows the first two paragraphs.
What’s going on???
Will try one more time.

Posted by: lulu | Jan 30 2020 22:20 utc | 261

—> Fnation-wide accumulated total statistics till midnight 2020-01-30 18:17 （Beijing Time):
– 8,163 confirmed cases
– 171 deaths, of which 162 from Hubei Province (129 in Wuhan)
– 136 recovered/cured, of which 90 from Hubei (54 in Wuhan)
– 12,167 suspected cases (<--- Bad news: Xizang/Tibet has 1 confirmed case) - Beijing has 121 confirmed cases, 1 death, 5 recovered/cured. Between 08:00 -20:00, there are 7 confirmed in Beijing, of which two came from Hubei Province, 5 had close contacts with infected nCoV patients . <--- It is clear that close and direct contacts with infected patients are responsible for the quick and wide spread of this infectious virus.

Posted by: lulu | Jan 30 2020 22:49 utc | 262

b, could you please delet post 261 & 262? Thank you!
It seems the system doesn’t allow me to put in the same live map link posted before? So please go to the first link in my post@231 to see the latest data and where the following figures come from:
Total nation-wide accumulated statistics till 2020-01-30 18:17 （Beijing Time):
– 8,163 confirmed cases
– 171 deaths, of which 162 from Hubei Province (129 in Wuhan)
– 136 recovered/cured, of which 90 from Hubei (54 in Wuhan)
– 12,167 suspected cases (<--- Bad news: Xizang/Tibet has 1 confirmed case) - Beijing has 121 confirmed cases, 1 death, 5 recovered/cured. ---> Close and direct contacts with infected patients are responsible for the quick and wide spread of this infectious virus.
For example:
– There are total 12 confirmed nCov cases (29/01/20) in Shantou, Guangdong province, of which 11 cases are due to spread within the families.
Male, 41, came back from Wuhan on 22/01, showed symptoms on 26/01 and was in hospital for treatment since 27/01. His wife, son and daughter have been diagnosed for infection.
– Hefei, capital city of Anhui province: A 22-year old male student came back from Wuhan on 19/01, had a gathering with 5 classmates on 21st. He then had fever on 22nd and was hospitalised on 23rd. Of the 5 other people of the gathering, 1 got sick on 22nd, 3 were sick on 24th, 1 on 25th. Now all 6 of them are hospitalised with mild symptoms and in stable conditions.
– Beijing: Between 08:00 -20:00 (20/01), there are 7 confirmed cases, of which 2 came from Hubei Province, 5 had close contacts with infected nCoV patients .many confirmed cases are due to the spread via family/friend social gatherings
<--- The contagious danger is really super higher. The husband of the infected woman in Chicago is confirmed to be infected as well. He is the first man-to-man transmission in US.

Posted by: lulu | Jan 30 2020 23:37 utc | 263

@lulu, thanks for the updates.
My own personal contact in China (Wuhan) has been repatriated by the JPN gov (pressure from wife and kids at home). He checked out clean on arrival in Tokyo but of course he spent quite a few hours in close contact -airplane- with people diagnosed with the virus upon arrival (at least 3).
Quite a bit of hysteria here in the JPN media.

Posted by: phiw13 | Jan 31 2020 0:16 utc | 264

—-> Project teams/task-forces focus on the nCov in China are undergoing right now:
1A. Isolation of the novel coronavirus (done).
1B. Development of vaccine (in progress).
According to Li Lanjuan, academician of Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) and senior expert to NHC, whose lab has successfully isolated the novel coronavirus, “successful isolating the nCov virus means we have the nCoV seed strain for vaccine, with which we can get vaccines strain. With vaccine strains, we can prepare vaccine.
It will takes one and half month to get the vaccine strains, after which it takes one and half month to get the approval (from the health authority)”.
2. Tracing back the origin of nCoV and its spreading medium/pathway/carrier (in progress).
3. Optimising the treatment of novel Coronavirus, incl. tradition Chinese medicine (in progress).
National Health Commission (NHC) has just issued/updated the 4th draft of optimal treatment for nCov.
4. nCov test kits for quick result in use (done). Production and distribution (in progress).
Hubei Province has already prepared 50,000 test kits for nCoV by 29/01/2020.
NHC is to send in the second batch of 60,000 kits in coming days, to make it to total of 110,000 for Hubei alone.
According to Hubei Provincial Health Commission, there are 41 hospitals and institutes, apart from Hubei provincial CDC, are capable to handle 6,000 tests per day at full capacity. Huang Gang, the second severely hit region nearby Wuhan, used to only be able to only handle 49 tests per day since 23/01, now it can handle 400 tests per day.
Factories are in 24-hour production
New type of test kits, such as, CDetection developed by Institue for Stem Cell Regeneration under CAS, can use fluorescence signals to identify a living sample (活体) whether it is infected or not after 40 minutes under 42℃. (<--- Note: How many of this type of test kits are put into use, I haven't seen detailed number. ) 　　 DISCLAIM of lost-in-translation: I am not familiar with all these medical terms and English is not my mother tongue, if any of my translation of these medical jargons/terms is not correct, which may mislead you, it is all my fault.

Posted by: lulu | Jan 31 2020 0:21 utc | 265

@ Posted by: lulu | Jan 31 2020 0:21 utc | 265 with their information about China response to coronavirus….Thanks!
I think you are doing a good job providing translations of what is being reported in China about what is going on and the response of the people and government.
I shudder to think about what the, for profit, Western people and government response is going to be to coronavirus.
IMO, if the death rate increases a bit more, a world wide travel lock down will occur and it already beginning….except all will want to buy supplies from China….grin
This will also trigger a world wide Recession/Depression/?Change Opportunity?
I guess this is better than a shooting war being what grinds the world into a pause and reflect.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Jan 31 2020 0:43 utc | 266

As yellow men, we are so used to this type of “freedom of speech”.
However, as we all know decent people do exist in this world: some of the comments under the following twitters are heart-warming. Big thanks for the support!
– Dr. Gan: From Jan. 4, I have worked in the heat outpatient, I am not frightened . Good news will come in the near future.
– “Mommy is going there to fight the monster virus, I’ll be back soon.” 144 medical personnel from Chongqing Emergency Medical Centre left for Wuhan last night
– 姜伟 Jiang Wei
@juliojiangwei
A doctor suddenly fell to the ground after 36 hours of continuous work, but he returned after a short rest.
Expats inside Wuhan lockdown live reporting:
– American inside Wuhan’s long twitter thread about the lockdown
– Another Video of Wuhan Jia You from Expat inside Wuhan
Let’s have some fun:
– Wuhan people really know how to entertain themselves

Posted by: lulu | Jan 31 2020 1:13 utc | 267

Correction post@263:
—> Beijing: Between 08:00 -20:00 (30/01), there are 7 confirmed cases, of which 2 came from Hubei Province, 5 had close contacts with infected nCoV patients.
Many confirmed cases are due to the spread via family/friend social gatherings

Posted by: lulu | Jan 31 2020 1:23 utc | 268

phiw13 @264
Due to due to the political, economical and racial reasons, it is quite nature for the “first class” developed Western countries, incl. JPN as ally of the Western “superior race” and democracy lover, to whip up a mass hysteria against China globally.
However, that being said, you yourself should stay away from your contact at least for 14-day, and suggest his family members should do the same, since “he spent quite a few hours in close contact -airplane- with people diagnosed with the virus”.
Check the last part of my post @263: The contagious danger is really super higher. The reason of the recently jumping figures of the infected cases are mostly due to the close contacts with infected people before they show any symptoms of infection.
Doctors in China have already confirmed that this virus spread during incubation. Be very careful.
I personally wonder whether it is wise for all foreign governments to take their citizens back to their countries. By taking back the potential virus-carrying people back increases the possibility to wide spread across the global.

Posted by: lulu | Jan 31 2020 1:54 utc | 269

Thank you again Lulu.
I agree it’s very unwise to start moving people around to other countries. I’m not surprised though, I don’t think too highly of most governments in general.
What I wish would happen instead is that other countries would ramp up their production of relevant medical equipment and assist China directly. There’s a little bit of it but mostly only due to commercial activity as far as I know. Even better would be if the world in general had prepared well enough to have relevant stock ready to be shipped. This usually happens when it comes to other kinds of emergencies internationally but it seems no one thought about doing this for viral outbreaks (or maybe I’m simply wrong and have missed any news regarding it). I am aware China has said it has all the necessary resources to beat the virus and I don’t think that’s wrong but it might not include short-term shortages. Maybe it’s not an issue in any way but I would like the world to be able to provide at least some relevant help if asked by China or anyone else.
– – – – – – – –
The following is my own attempt to try to understand the issue with the cartoon which I have only had described to me: a Chinese flag with the yellow stars replaced with viruses. Hopefully I’m not making it worse since there’s no way I can be sure I correctly understand either Denmark or China and most of this will be about Denmark since I know much more about their perspective than I’m familiar with the Chinese. Maybe I’m as bad as them at not understanding something that is obvious to the Chinese.
There are more and larger cultural differences in the world than most ever consider and some of them are not at all obvious. I’m thinking whoever drew the cartoon most likely didn’t intend any malice at all and that most Danes seeing it wouldn’t consider it to be anything but a topical summary (a virus outbreak taking place in China). I’m not Danish but that would be my own interpretation.
Again I think this is part of why they also have trouble apologizing since they struggle to understand what the insult is and that China can see it as their nation being equated with a virus, being blamed, and/or disrespected.
If Denmark itself is heavily hit by this or some other disaster with a loss of life it wouldn’t surprise me at all if some Danish cartoonist made (or maybe somewhere in the past after a disaster this has already been done) a similar illustration creating a Danish flag by drawing two white bones in a cross on a red background, and few if any of them would consider it as being any kind of criticism or having any kind of deeper meaning.
Thus when someone else sees things very differently and in addition if the Danes in question manage to understand why that is so (and they probably still haven’t, I’m not even sure I have) they probably end up in a situation where they’re asked to apologize for something they never intended and feel like they never did and this will strike them as absurd and weird. Then it gets even more complicated because a foreign government is asking them to apologize when they’re strictly speaking not supposed to have to apologize even to their own government (this is the freedom of speech they’re talking about, it has nothing to with China or Chinese as such).
I hope I didn’t make anything worse, sorry for mostly only being able to speak about what I think the Danish point of view is.

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Jan 31 2020 3:02 utc | 270

psychohistorian@266
Thank you!
China will get a hard hit for sure, but not destroyed or stopped.
Will nCoV trigger a world wide Recession/Depression? Let’s see how long it will take China to defeat nCoV. It took 6-month for China to beat SARS. Now with more experience and better coordinating system, hopefully it will take less time. The next 10-day to 2-week will be crucial.
Will nCoV bring change/opportunity for the world to pause and reflect, sadly, I doubt the all-for-profit ruling class will……

Posted by: lulu | Jan 31 2020 3:53 utc | 271

@lulu 169
Don‘t worry, contact person lives 500km away…
That said,

I personally wonder whether it is wise for all foreign governments to take their citizens back to their countries. By taking back the potential virus-carrying people back increases the possibility to wide spread across the global.

The JPN gov seems to keep them for 3 yes 3 days for observations. And no I don’t think is a great idea, all that repatriation.
Also, the city where I live is a very popular destination for chinese people this period of the year. Up to two weeks ago, the city centre was busy as usual. now less, of course.

Posted by: phiw13 | Jan 31 2020 9:02 utc | 272

More from your local CIA troll / State Department Shill.
Medical staff from Hong Kong are reporting completely different stats than those reported by China, and you tell me which you would believe — numbers from staff on the ground or numbers from a government that always tells the truth? Medical personnel on the ground or multiple governments whose primary concern is GDP, the stock market, etc?
Two days ago these brave souls reported in excess of 90,000 confirmed cases, and several thousand dead. This has to be utter nonsense, we say, as this is totally different from what China and WHO, et al, are reporting. Two days ago I was informed that China is secretly cremating people, but this could not possibly be true, correct? I mean, I MUST be making this up, correct? https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12304547
The Lancet as well as Hong Kong University both ran their own numbers, two days ago, showing between 100,000 and 488,000 infected, w/ an infection rate as high as 83%, and R-naught above 5, and mortality rates between 10 & 15%.
Hubei Province is under lockdown, but many countries are still accepting flights from there. China has confirmed that ALL provinces have confirmed infections, yet many of these countries are still allowing international flights? This cannot be contained.
Incoming airports initially screen by taking temperature. If infected but not yet ill, there will be a false negative. If the person cools their head with a moist cloth prior to being screened….
People are wearing standard facemasks, which are woefully inadequate. Properly fitted N95 or better is needed, WITH eye protection — I use P100 full-face respirators w/ carbon filtration.
N will not stop oily droplets, P will; P can also be cleaned and re-used.
The virus is aerosolized but heavy, so will only travel about 3 meters. It can survive 7 days in water. Fulmites are an issue, meaning things that are touched such as door knobs, etc. Always wear goggles, if nothing else than to prevent you from rubbing your eyes with contaminated hands.
I am waiting to hear from naysayers such as PavewayIV, vk, denk, William Gruff, and B. I hope and pray I am wrong, but the medical as well as scientific evidence, as well as the mathematics, says otherwise. This IS a global pandemic, and all you can do is to prepare.
HK medical staff have stated the virus has already had a 2nd major mutation, and will continue doing so. It is their data I follow the closest, as all others are guessing whereas they have personnel on the ground. It is their staff who 1st reported secret cremations, stats far higher than official Chinese reports, etc.
It is in India, and this plus people in Africa and S America are areas I fear for the most. Their sanitary conditions are often horrid, in super dense populations, where immune systems are already compromised. India has now disallowed export of facemasks, but again, basic masks are inadequate, at least for healthcare workers.
At a local Walmart recently, I purchased sufficient canned goods, pasta and legumes to last a year, and was one of only two wearing a mask. The cashier asked me why, to which I replied, I do not want anyone to get sick from my having treated sick patients.

Posted by: DrM | Jan 31 2020 16:29 utc | 273

Not buying it DrM, don’t believe you are in the medical profession at all, not even as a porter or on the dirty side of the laundry crew (bless their souls, that’s damn hard work most people have no idea even exists).

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Jan 31 2020 19:31 utc | 274

And by the way “Dr”M you could have provided the link to the genetic sequences of the mutations (not the originals provided to the WHO through the government of the People’s Republic of China) because those should be semi-publicly available through the WHO from your sources unless it’s all rumor-mongering propaganda of the filthy unethical kind.
There, I gave you a chance to redeem yourself too (but guess what).

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Jan 31 2020 19:49 utc | 275

Laughing my ass off @DrM @273
I hope you didn’t forget to stock up on duct tape and plastic sheeting while you were visiting Wally World! You’ll certainly die without those!

Posted by: William Gruff | Jan 31 2020 23:17 utc | 276

More on genome via arvix study
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1223308656101462016
Very technical, Disinfo?

Posted by: casey | Feb 1 2020 2:26 utc | 277

So Ok I’m just this minute reading on RT that thus far 256 people have died of the coronavirus. A few minutes ago I read that the according to the CDC in the U$S this flu season +/- 15 million people have had the influenza illness; 140,000 have been hospitalized and +/- 8,200 have died. That is eight thousand two hundred. Just in murka. So it’s really past time to cut the bullfarts. The china bashing is simply oportunistic economic warfare. No body personifies murka better than Killery – vindictive murderer who thinks herself above the law. Her secret service chump refuses service of Gabbard’s lawsuit. How is that even legal? To call it a disgrace is a compliment.
What I don’t understand is why all the EU countries fall for the bs time after time. Sigh. Thanks for listening – or not.

Posted by: Miss Lacy | Feb 1 2020 13:47 utc | 278

This is a request for a document, which some people here may weel have available from a university library – which is very difficult for Wally to access.
I am looking for a copy of the January 1946 issue of “The Merck Report”.
Why?
This issue is referenced in this way>
“…copies among the Embassies in Chungking, and it may well be more than a coincidence that according to the well-known Merck Report of Jan. 1946, large-scale work in America on the methods of bacteriological warfare began in the very same year, 1941. The Commission was happ;i to have the opportunity, during its work in Korea, of meeting the distingqished …”
Which is a fragment from the 764 page report on US biowarfare in Korea, issued in 1952 “REPORT
OF THE
INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC COMMISSION
FOR THE
INVESTIGATION OF THE FACTS CONCERNING
BACTERIAL WARFARE IN KOREA AND CHINA
Which report constitutes the week-end reading for Wally.
So, whoz gotta copy of Merck from January ’46 ??
Gotta be on microfiche somewherz.

Posted by: Walter | Feb 1 2020 14:05 utc | 279

Latest update the latest data
(Please go to my post@231 to see the explaination about the different charts and lists on the live website),
Total nation-wide accumulated statistics till 2020-02-01 12:44（Beijing Time):
– 11,893 confirmed, of which 7,153 in Hubei province (3,215 in Wuhan)
– 259 deaths, of which 249 in Hubei (192 in Wuhan)
– 269 recovered/cured, of which 167 in Hubei (106 in Wuhan)
– 17,988 suspected cases
<--- Good news: First time the number of recovered/cured cases overtake that of the death. Bad news: The huge surge of confirmed cases and suspected ones mean the situation is much severer than originally thought. ---> China’s NHC daily press conference on 2019-nCoV on 01/02/2020. (Please use online translation for help). The press conference took place on 15:00, 01/02/2020.
Just a reminder: NHC’s figures are always collected on daily basis till midnight of the previous day, which explains the disparity between these figures and the above-mentioned figures: final daily statistics vs live update.
NHC’s figures are always split into two set: numbers increased/decreased within the day (between 0-24) and numbers accumulated till midnight of that day. For example,
Till midnight of 01/02/2020, there are 2,102 newly confirmed cases (incl. 268 in critical conditions), 46 new deaths (45 in Hubei, 1 in Chongqing), 72 newly recovered/cured, 5,019 newly suspected.
The total accumulated 11,791 confirmed (1 case reduction in each of Jiangxi, Shanxi and Gansu provinces after check), incl 1795 in critical conditions, 259 deaths, 243 recovered/cured, 17,988 suspected in 31 provinces and autonomous regions.
13 confirmed cases in Hong Kong SAR, 7 in Macau SAR, 10 in Taiwan.
—> 8 million masks are sent into HK with the support and coordiantion from the Central Government, 24 millions are on the way to HK according to HK Chief Secretary Matthew Cheung
1 million masks are sent to mainland China by Macau SAR.
Taiwan forbids the export of masks and protective gears to mainland China， but initially pledged to send in 100,000 masks to Australia for its fire fighting on 14/01.

Posted by: lulu | Feb 1 2020 14:10 utc | 280

Thanks lulu, with a bit of luck the spread of information and control measures will start to bend the curve of new infections down soon.
(Let me just add that I think your English if pretty good for the Internet. Lot’s better than my Chinese.)

Posted by: Bemildred | Feb 1 2020 14:35 utc | 281

As the information war against China spreeds, taking advanatge of the new Coronavirus epidemic, some things you should see, and stop believing in myths….
Thread of the main Chinese companies, what they do, what income they have, who their owner is and what model they have.
https://twitter.com/GuiriEnTabarnia/status/1154090455736434689
I would translate for you, but I do not have enough MGbs through this connection to do it as before…

Posted by: Sasha | Feb 1 2020 16:55 utc | 282

@Posted by: BM | Jan 26 2020 8:03 utc | 100
For not to mention the alleged doctor, DR.M, who, after scaring the people away ( something that would be the last thing a real doctor would do…if not because security and keeping control is vital to control an epidemic… ) claims he and his wife, both doctors, will not go to work unless provided with a hazmat suit, and, not even glad enough with that, alleges that at certain point the health workers will opt for attending first their relatives ( with which he really admits being the scoundrel he is, thinking everybody would do what he would do…) jumping over any Hyppocratic Oath and even the more than probable fact that any doctor or nurse would be militarized in case of the situation getting out of control, with which anybody not attending work place would be sent MP and go to work, with or without hazmat suit, depending on the availability, or would face jail.

Posted by: Sasha | Feb 1 2020 17:06 utc | 283

—>Huanggang, neighbouring Wuhan, is the second severely infected region after Wuhan:
– 726 confirmed cases
– 14 deaths
– 17 recovered/cured.
Between 0-24, 31/01/2020, there are 153 newly confirmed cases in Huanggang.
Since 23/01, Huanggang hospitals take on the 2019.nCoV with free treatment. The government has already started to allocated money to shoulder the financial burden.
—>Vice mayor answers the questions why Huang Gang has the second largest number of infected cases after Wuhan.
Key talking points:
– The initial understanding of 2019-nCoV is incomplete, which resulted in the underestimation of the situation. So the preparation was not adequate.
– With a population of 7.5 million, Huanggang is the second largest city in Hubei, right after Wuhan. 14% of 5 million people out of Wuhan i.e 700,000 people went back/arrived in Huanggang .
– The city’s medical resources, aka adequately equipped hospitals to take in patients, though the government has already taken on three hospitals and one medical center since 21/01, are stretched to the very limit.
– Inadequate test capacity.
–> Before 19/01, Huanggang is not authorised to do the tests;
–> Between 20/01 – 22/01, it was authorised but did not have the test kits to test 2019_nNoV.
–> From 23rd, it had test kits but not enough medical technicians, and the fist batch of test results still needed to be sent to the provincial CDC to get final approval.
–> Now it (finally) have the capacity to speed up the tests.
That explains why the number from Huanggang is increasing fast in the last few days. The numbers of confirmed cases will continue rise in coming days, and then will reach the plateau. After that, the number could begin to decline.
—> The head of Huangshi’s Health Commission is removed from her position on 30/01 due to incompetence.
When asked by the Supervision Team from Central Government on 29/01, she couldn’t answer the following questions:
1. What’s the capacity of the hospitals to take in nCoV infected patients? She couldn’t gave an answer.
2. How many beds are available for nCoV patients? She replied: “I don’t know exactly.”
3. How many nCoV patients have been taken in? (Asked by the CCTV journalist). She said: ” I am not clear about that, ’cause it keeps on changing.”
<--- On Chinese social media there are talks/wild speculations/rumours how she got promoted in the first place. --->Huanggang takes disciplinary action against 337 officials for slacking off from their duty in combating the nCoV , incl. 6 heads of local government departments/agencies have been removed from their positions.

Posted by: lulu | Feb 1 2020 18:15 utc | 284

Data just posted by lulu 280 shows lethality rate around 3.5% in wuhan, and less than 0.5% elsewhere. This demonstrates what I said two days ago in com258:
When the confirmed cases are very fresh, the lethality rate is artificially strongly lower because the virus needs more time to kill.
Since this effect is still working in Wuhan also, we can guesstimate that the true lethality rate is quite above 3.5%, somewhere between 5 and 7% (as long as the health system is not overwhelmed)

Posted by: Parisian Guy | Feb 1 2020 18:41 utc | 285

Hundreds of thousand deaths annually is attributed to the seasonal flu – crickets.
Reminder: the 2009 swine flu was declared a pandemic by the WHO, giving big Pharma a windfall of $$ at taxpayers’ expense after the millions of vaccines were destroyed.
the Coronavirus in 2020.
Here we are hyperventilating with assumptions on the ratio of declared deaths to numbers infected. Not a pips by western MSM: there people who were infected and are recovering.
No thought for the 60 millions under quarantine; likely with a 3-7 days food and essential supplies. How are they making out to be fed? Millions locked in place and unemployed!!!
And what of the global economic impact? China is the global warehouse – and the just-in-time supply chain is broken.

Posted by: Likklemore | Feb 1 2020 19:16 utc | 286

@Casey 277
There are poor guys from some research institute or university who made a planetary joke of themselves when they published this clownish scientific article. (If these people are real)
Have a look to the unanimous comments from other researchers, below the article. Genomics is not my field of knowledge but biomathematics was. I perfectly understand the criticisms and I can guarantee their relevance. I have seen many biological article which are a little – or more – bit mathematically or logically defective (1/3 of them were), but this one is an intergalactic champion.
It also could be voluntary disinformation. In any case, it’s bullshit.

Posted by: Parisian Guy | Feb 1 2020 19:17 utc | 287

Posted by: Parisian Guy | Feb 1 2020 19:17 utc | 288

“How transmissible is infection with 2019-nCoV?
Preliminary studies based on the first 425 confirmed cases have placed the reproductive index, R0, at 2.2 (range 1.4 to 3.9). The R0 is the number of people, on average, who are infected by a single infected person. In comparison, the R0 for SARS-CoV was about 3. ”
Source: http://www.virology.ws/2020/01/30/the-growing-coronavirus-epidemic/
The guy running this website is a Columbia Biologist. Not a quack.
I imagine his data is on the conservative side: note that while he cites the Ro as 2.2 he also states a range of 1.4 to 3.9. I believe this is called: could range from a virulent flu to the Apocalypse-we just don’t know yet. If you graph an Ro of 2.2 it is still pretty damn scary especially combined with reports that the 2019 nCoV is in it’s 3rd or 4th mutation.
They will continue to gather data. I am all for that. I am, however, suprised by the response of the West. Borders need to be shut to passenger airtravel between many parts of China and the rest of the World. Also, re: disinfo and misinfo; I am really suspicious when within a week of 911 a govt official-yeah, those guys never lie-is holding up a passport. That is what has happened in this wuhan situation: everyone in the MSM had confirmed ideas about this flu from the very beginning-it either came from a bat (a known disease vector for virii that ‘jump’ to humans or human companions like horses or (civet) cats OR it came from the Wuhan level 4 facility via the local Market. Either way, good enough for the MSM. Take your pick (hahahahaaaa!!!). Is this not completely laughable?
Then we get the crap about the Chinese scientist ‘expelled’ from a Canadian lab, blah, blah, blah and Mike Pomparse labels the ChiComs the biggest threat to America!
Bottom line: all 5 eyes gov’ts are doing bio-weapon research. The Chinese have been through SARS, MERS, H1N1, swine flu, avian flu, etc. Do you think that China is starting to wonder if someone is pointing a gun at their head and laughing at them while pulling the trigger on occasion. I just don’t buy all the outbreaks I’ve seen in China as natural events and forensic analyses of all these virii will prove that view correct in time. China is under attack. They know it. Maybe that is why they are doing everything they can to get ahold of weaponized virii. It is time we stopped believing our lying MSM (the guys who always told us the truth about 911, jfk, Iraq war, etc ad nauseum) and used our grey matter.
I haven’t seen anything in MSM along the lines of: the 60+million people in and around Wuhan are indoors, waiting it out and will need emergency rations and water soon as their cities are shut down. If you wish to donate to a relief fund here is how.
Would people give $ to help them out? Absolutely.
Demonizing China is not a workable solution. Understanding that other countries have interests and aspirations just like we in the West is rational and a sound basis for policy, at the level of govt and individuals.

Posted by: dorje | Feb 1 2020 19:36 utc | 289

Encouraging responsible citizenship on the forgetful for achievement of major general goal…
https://twitter.com/zlj517/status/1223511186643116032
A whole informational war is being unleashed on China. Were borders closed and flights diverted when other more virulent viruses affected mainly Western countries? this is a shame!
Wuhan Coronavirus compared to other major viruses
https://twitter.com/elenaevdokimov7/status/1223409153713983490
The fact is that their management of the situation, amongst the almost complete lack of support is being oustanding in effort and effectiveness…
https://twitter.com/CGTNOfficial/status/1223078448228335617
https://twitter.com/XHNews/status/1223417880064098305
Congrats!

Posted by: Sasha | Feb 1 2020 19:36 utc | 290

@doctor M
You forgot that there are 100 cases outside China. If the disease was actually as hongkong said, it should have appeared on these cases.
What a pity! You’re not a CIA Troll but a doctor who made himself an (unpaid) CIA useful idiot.

Posted by: Parisian Guy | Feb 1 2020 19:38 utc | 291

—> Thank you, Bemildred @281, for your kind words!
I guess the situation will probably continue to be bad for a few days before the turn-around comes.
The next big challenge is how to avoid the nCoV spread during the huge population movement across the country when people start to come back to work and schools/universities this weekend after the extended Chinese New Year holiday.
Another one is how well/bad the prevention measures have been carried out at all local levels across the whole country.
The situation will be much improved if all take the prevention measures to heart like this Provincial Governor told by the old village guard to not come into his village and go away.
<--- On 30/01, when the Governor of Jiangsu province, Lou Qinjian, went around for a random inspection, the old village man with red armband, who had been guarding at the edge of his village, told him: "You're stranger here. If you don't have anything to do here, (you'd better) leave here as quickly as possible." :D --->phiw13 @272
Are these people all in a quarantine center or do they stay at home in self-quarantine? Basing on the experience I read from Chinese websites, the quarantine time should be 14-day.
Fingers crossed that the virus will not widely spread to Japan or any other country.
—> Sunny Runny Burger @270
Many thanks for taking your time to write back! What you said is definitely a perspective I would have never thought of. Don’t worry, I know you mean well.
Do you think the Danish cartoonist will put H5N1 virus on Danish flag since there is a Latest News about the Avian Influenza (bird flu) right now in Denmark? Or, will he use the fire symbols to replace the stars on Australian flag?
Actually,I’d rather prefer this kind of blunt honesty: U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross says coronavirus ‘will help to accelerate the return of jobs to North America’

Posted by: lulu | Feb 1 2020 19:45 utc | 292

—> Huanggnag has issued the restriction order as further preventative measure that takes effect from today (01/02/2020) onwards.
Key points:
– Apart from patients who need to visit clinics/hospitals for treatment, public health and medical staff and people working in pharmacies/supermarkets, every family can have only one member to go shopping for food and daily necessities every two day.
– CCP members and government officials should set good examples by making sure themselves, their family members and relatives as well as neighbours to not go outside unnecessarily, and not participate any social gatherings*.
(*<---Now it is still Chinese New Year. Traditionally, during the first 15-day of the Chinese New Year, there are a lot of social and family visitings and gatherings as well as dining out. It’s hard for people to give up the thousand-year old tradition, but now they must.
These measures may sound very harsh but are much needed at this critical time when hospitals and staff are overwhelmed and medical supplies deplete quickly.
Hope the sacrifice made by people in Wuhan, Huanggang, Hubei and other parts of China will help to stop the virus to be widely spread to the rest of the world.)
– Police will hold anyone who refuse to observe these precautious prevention measures or agitate to organise the crowd for disturbance of public order accountable.
– Anyone who slacks off their duty will be punished.
Locals reaction to the restrict order. The photo shows that there are public health personnel and police at the controlling points measure the temperature of people who need to go out to work.
<--- Hope this helps to provide a bit info about the situation on the ground.

Posted by: lulu | Feb 2 2020 0:20 utc | 293

@ Posted by: lulu | Feb 2 2020 0:20 utc | 293 with the China update
There is a new posting at MoA that you should continue your comments to please and thanks.
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2020/02/coronaupdate.html

Posted by: psychohistorian | Feb 2 2020 0:34 utc | 294

—> Thank you, psychohistorian @294!
I have posted the latest update under b’s new post about nCoV: my post @123
Will write one or two posts about so-called a). government “cover-up” and b) online lynching of Hubei Red Cross and the political motivation behind it as well as c). cyber disinformation battles undergoing on Chinese social networks since 2008.
—>Sasha, many thanks for link of the funny drone video to persuade people to wear masks!

Posted by: lulu | Feb 2 2020 15:42 utc | 295

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