Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
January 25, 2020
The Coronavirus – No Need To Panic


Bring Out Your Dead by beq
biggeruncropped

I had a little bird,
Its name was Enza.
I opened the window,
And in-flu-enza.
The Influenza Pandemic of 1918

The picture and the rhyme are from a fifteen year old Moon of Alabama post headlined Bring Out Your Dead. Beq's title for her picture is from a medieval Mounty Pyton sketch (vid) around the 'black death'. We no longer have to fear the plague but every once a while a new virus catches up with humanity.

China is stepping up efforts to stop the spread of a the novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV:

Chinese President Xi Jinping has held a special government meeting on the Lunar New Year public holiday to warn that the spread of a deadly new virus is "accelerating".

The country is facing a "grave situation" Mr Xi told senior officials, according to state television.

The coronavirus has killed at least 41 people and infected almost 1,300 since its discovery in the city of Wuhan.

Travel restrictions have already hit several affected cities.

And from Sunday, private vehicles will be banned from the central districts of Wuhan, the source of the outbreak.

Across mainland China, travellers are having their temperatures checked for signs of fever, and train stations have been shut in several cities.

An infected person transmits the virus to X healthy persons. In an epidemic the factor X is greater than 1. For the novel coronavirus the initial factor, also known as R0 or R naught, is 1.4-2.5 which is not especially high.

Ferris Jabr @ferrisjabr – 6:58 UTC · Jan 25, 2020

The basic reproduction number (R0) is the average number of secondary infections generated by one infected person in a totally susceptible population #2019nCoV

The claim that "we are now faced with the most virulent virus epidemic the world has ever seen" and that the new coronavirus is 8x as infectious as SARS is completely untrue. Even if the R0 were 3.8 that would be nowhere near a record.

Here is some context w/ a range of R0s:


bigger

As long as the R0 is over 1 the infection will spread further as each infected person will infect multiple healthy ones who again will infect others. To stop an epidemic R0 has to be brought to under 1. Key is to lower the number of healthy persons an infected person comes into contact with. In 2002-2003 the SARS epidemic started out with an R0 of about 3 and ended with an R0 of 0.4. This was achieved by isolating the sick and, as not all infected persons are immediately recognized, also by lowering the number of contacts people have in their daily life.

China is now rapidly doing both.

The fatality rate of the novel coronavirus is also no reason to panic.

Dr. Melvin Sanicas @Vaccinologist – 22:11 UTC · Jan 23, 2020

Preliminary R0 (number showing how contagious / transmissible a pathogen is) for #Wuhan #nCoV2019 novel #coronavirus: 1.4-2.5. Here are the figures for other diseases #SARSvirus #MERS & their case-fatality rates to put things in perspective


bigger

The current  4% case-fatality rate of the coronavirus (which still may increase) is also not especially high. The Spanish Flu pandemic, which began in the U.S., had a fatality rate of about 10%. It was unusual in that it killed mostly young adults. The novel coronavirus seems to be quite usual in that it mostly kills people who are already weakened by other circumstances. The infection is then often the 'last drop in the bucket' that kills a person who already had a medical condition.

People fond of conspiracy theories will speculate that the coronoavirus was spread intentionally or escaped from some laboratory. The neo-conservatives in the U.S. have played with that idea.

Advanced forms of biological warfare that can “target” specific genotypes may transform biological warfare from the realm of terror to a politically useful tool.
"Rebuilding America's Defenses" – The September 2000 PNAC Report

But from a scientific perspective that makes little sense. There is no 'race gene' that could be used to safely discriminate between people of a certain heritage and others.

The novel coronavirus is likely a variant of some animal virus that crossed over to a human host. This probably happens way more often than we recognize.

Comments

I am skeptical of the information from China. Given the strict measures put in place to prevent the spread of this disease and the limited number of sick and dead when those measures were first put in place, it seemed that the numbers were too low to have caused such a dramatic response. This, I believe the number of sick and/or dead has been underreported.

Posted by: TimmyB | Jan 26 2020 8:20 utc | 101

Pure coincidence> “A prominent Australian doctor who led the World Health Organisation’s Health Emergencies Programme has died suddenly.” see
9news.com.au or whatever. Doctor Peter Salama died “suddenly” @ 51

Posted by: Walter | Jan 26 2020 8:28 utc | 102

To get a relation: I once read a report that there are suspected 15,000 deaths in illegal coal mining in china per year. Divide that number by 365 days: 41 per day.
I alo suspect that there are more people killed by falling from ladders, being hit by falling bricks (or rice sacks).

Posted by: Matthias | Jan 26 2020 9:11 utc | 103

Turkey (where I live) loses approximately 10,000 lives a year to automobile accidents. Unfortunately, there seems to be no vaccine for the automobile virus. Thus the possibility of its eradication seems dire.

Posted by: Blue Dotterel | Jan 26 2020 10:09 utc | 104

Ask the poisonist proxxers who pretend that non-vaxxers are the problem, when it’s really themselves that are driving the campaign to eradicate the efficacy of antibiotics.

Posted by: Russ | Jan 26 2020 10:33 utc | 105

A User #94
Thank you for that data and especially the last paragraph. I second that sentiment and I doubt they will ever STFU unless someone nukes or drops a virus on one of their offshore tax havens. If ever there was a revenge for Qasem Soleimani, that would be a solid one.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jan 26 2020 10:43 utc | 106

Blue Dotterel #104

Turkey (where I live) loses approximately 10,000 lives a year to automobile accidents. Unfortunately, there seems to be no vaccine for the automobile virus. Thus the possibility of its eradication seems dire.

Elon is working on it as is Google. They have a vax called ‘driverless’ but there is a mighty strong chance that the anti vaxers will jump in the drivers seat and save humanity. You do realise that a driverless car can not be prosecuted for dangerous driving or manslaughter. Elon loves the thought of a world with no human responsibility just like Goldman Sachs.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jan 26 2020 10:51 utc | 107

Here is a little fairy-tale for you:
Once upon a time a group of Boltonites (a screed of ultra-delusionist psychopaths) escaped from their high security mental asylum and infected the US government, causing an epidemic of governmental boltonism. A team of jihadi Boltonites was dispatched to Wuhan, China, on a suicide mission to release a very deadly and virulent virus, and make it appear to come from the local Chinese bio lab. The brave lads of the Chinese Intelligence services caught scent of the plot. They nabbed the villains in the act, isolated and secured the hostile virus before it could be released, and took the villains off for secure interrogation.
Meanwhile, as it happened, the Chinese had been developing an experimental extra-mild strain of corona virus to study how it could be used to diminish the virulence of a more virulent outbreak. In order to try to roll up the complete network of the Boltonists, they secretly released the extra-mild strain of corona virus into the population and over-hyped its virulence. The Boltonists’ support network fell for it, and within no time the Chinese security agencies had wrapped up the entire network leading to 107 arrests. Ever wary of the considerable danger of US attempts at bio-weapon attacks, they also took advantage of the opportunity to perfect their emergency procedures for coping with bio-weapon attacks on the civilian population and isolating the affected communities.

Posted by: BM | Jan 26 2020 10:58 utc | 108

If the following is true –
China coronavirus ‘spreads before symptoms show’ then it is more a bit more worrying as control measures need to be a lot more draconian to succeed.
For those people mentioning companies already working on this like the Pirbright and building conspiracy theories – these are decent scientists working to prepare for the worse. If this is the one ( and no-one knows yet – hopefully not ), then your a lot better off if you done years of work before hand rather than starting now.
The science, and history, tells us there *will* be a major new killer at some point – it’s not a question of if, just a question of when.
How bad that will be depends on how well prepared we are, or how complacent we are.
We have all lived in a gold age in the fight against infectious diseases – led be the shining knights of science – it will come to and end if we are complacent – viruses and bacteria are not standing still – we are their food and they are still hunting.

Posted by: Scientist | Jan 26 2020 12:57 utc | 110

Posted by: Scientist | Jan 26 2020 12:57 utc | 110
I’m not sure if this post is serious, but I will comment on it anyway.

viruses and bacteria are not standing still – we are their food and they are still hunting.

I think this is a misconception. Microbes are not ‘hunters’ or ‘enemies’. Microbes are somewhat the foundation of biological life. We humans have billions of bacteria in our digestion system. Without them we couldn’t exist. In a small handful of soil there are more microorganisms than humans on earth. Without these microbes there would be no soil at all, not plant growth, no animals, no food.
Just to put things into perspective when we talk about microbes. We know not much about them, we don’t know much about cell components and their function. But what we can be very sure about is that microbes are essential.

Posted by: Phil | Jan 26 2020 13:16 utc | 111

It gets curiouser…..
In 2012,
Dr. Daniel Gerstein of the Department of Homeland Security made an alarming prediction
“we expect a pandemic by the end of 2013.”
One must wonder how Gerstein could possibly pinpoint a timeline for a pandemic, which is generally seen to be the result of unpredictable microscopic events. Unless, perhaps, he has a hand in creating one.
https://www.activistpost.com/2012/01/dancing-apocalypso-with-microbial.html

Posted by: denk | Jan 26 2020 13:17 utc | 112

@ Posted by: Scientist | Jan 26 2020 12:57 utc | 110; Posted by: TimmyB | Jan 26 2020 8:20 utc | 101
Yes, the virus seems to have some 14 days of incubation. The Chinese government has already warned of that and has already stated the number of infected will continue to rise.
@ Posted by: Phil | Jan 26 2020 13:16 utc | 111
Correct. Genetic mutations always happen randomly. Life doesn’t have a teleology.

Posted by: vk | Jan 26 2020 13:31 utc | 113

This is another very important point for clarification:
No more BATS & SNAKES for gourmands: China bans WILDLIFE trade after virus outbreak linked to agricultural producers
Someone here pointed out how Polinesians never get sick.
When humans were hunter-gatherers (primitive communism), they didn’t develop medicine – but they also almost never got sick. That was the case because the original ecosystem where the homo sapiens evolved was basically untouched by human historic development.
When the forests, plains, steppes, tundras, deserts etc. etc. are untouched, viruses and bacteria are kept “in their places”, and are unable to spread efficiently. Also, hunter-gatherer communities had very low population – generally, from seven individuals to 30 – and were very scattered. To put it simply, epidemics never happened in pre-history.
It was only after humans became sedentary, i.e. when they developed agriculture, that viruses and bacteria found the ideal scenario to spread freely. With agriculture, a lot more of food was produced, so human population balooned. Then, forests and other ecosystems were devastated to give way to the crops, which simplified the ecosystem and favoured the virus/bacteria cycle (e.g. proliferation of rats, lice and humans).
That’s why the Polinesian peoples never suffer from epidemics in their original homes: they are much closer to the hunter-gatherer mode of production than the Chinese, which are the original agriculturists.

Posted by: vk | Jan 26 2020 13:43 utc | 114

> I’m not sure if this post is serious, but I will comment on it anyway.
>>> viruses and bacteria are not standing still – we are their food and they are still hunting.
It’s metaphorical not literal of course. Obviously they are not conscious – when some bacteria eat our flesh or viruses rupture our cells, they have no concept of us, but they are constantly evolving to be better at it.
Of course microbes are an essential part of the web of life as a class ( not so sure about viruses – if we wiped out coronaviruses I think the world would still keep on going ). However for many – and not just those rare few that can be successful against healthy adults – we are just walking food – your body and immune system is keeping them at bay all the time.
Read here about living without an immune system – spoiler – life is extremely short unless you are given an immune system transplant.
To them – you are just a rich source of food – and the generation time is in minutes/hours not twenty years – they can evolve rapidly.
> We know not much about them, we don’t know much about cell components and their function
Yes and no – we have barely touched the surface of all the microbes out there – but actually for some of them – like E.Coli – we have a much better understanding of them than of pretty much any living thing* eg EcoCyc E. coli Database/A>( that said there is still lots to learn ).
*( Some viruses we know almost everything about them – but then they are very simple ).
Microbes are amazing – living at all extremes – if we nuke the world some of them will keep going – but that’s exactly why we have to treat them with a healthy respect.

Posted by: Scientist | Jan 26 2020 13:51 utc | 115

>denk
Unfortunately some scientists have found that if you talk about things like global warming or pandemics in sensible, caveat laden terms then *nobody listens*, you don’t get funding and no action is taken.
There are also some ambitious people trying to build careers, but generally scientists are a cautious bunch, but it’s the ones that are not you tend to hear.
Scientist: the science says it’s just a question of time before another pandemic.
Politician or funder: So when is it going to happen? Next 4 years?
Scientist: Can’t say – no idea, it’s a question of probability.
Politician: Well how can you be sure it will happen at all – I don’t understand?
Scientist: We know what most of the important factors are, but we can’t put accurate numbers on them, we just know that the probability approaches 1 as time increases.
Politician: Huh? This other guy says there is a 100% chance of a war with Iran in the next 10 years – I’m putting my money there.

Posted by: Scientist | Jan 26 2020 14:03 utc | 116

Empire watch rule no 1
When uncle sham cries wolf, run for YOUR life.

A number of insiders, including Dr. Daniel Gerstein of the Department of Homeland Security, former Senators Bill Talent and Bob Graham of the Weapons of Mass Destruction Center in Washington, D.C. and vaccine manufacturer, Dr. J. Joseph Kim of Inovio Pharmaceuticals, have stated that a major global pandemic is likely to take place before the end of 2013

Those DHS insiders were warning about bioweapon attacks on the ‘free’ world from ‘terrorists or rogue states’, but guess what,
it was China that got hit by massive bird flu in 2013, culling tens of millions of chickens, much like the current swine flu.
https://www.activistpost.com/2013/05/united-states-accused-of-planting-avian.html

Posted by: denk | Jan 26 2020 14:16 utc | 117

Latest news I read from China:
– Chinese Center for Disease Control has confirmed that it has successfully separated the virus and is working on vaccine
– Testing kits have been widely deployed now, which may see the numbers of patients increasing. The test kit can confirm whether a patient is infected by the novel coronavirus or not within a day.
– Professor Zhong Nanshan, expert of respiratory virus diseases, who kicked start the fighting of SARS in 2002, is in charge of the nation-wide team to coordinate and study the measures to fight the novel coronavirus. He told Guangzhou Daily on 20/01 that a few type of medicines have beeen identified to be safe to use for the treatment of the pneumonia. Just need to wait and see the effectiveness in coming days . (<--- Are those 49 already cured patients the testimony to these medicines?) His advice: early diagnosis, early treatment and quarantine separation of patients are the keys. The figures are updated in Chinese online all the time. Till midnight of January 25th: - 1,975 confirmed cases (incl. 324 of critical conditions); - 56 death - 49 cured patients*;
2684 suspected cases to be yet confirmed**.
*From the time these cured patients who got sick till their recovery, it seems the whole circle takes about 2 or 3 weeks of treatment plus one-week incubating period. (<--- This is my rough non-scientific calculation after reading the news in Chinese. ) The public health expert 曾光 (Zeng Guang), who was in charge of combating SARS in Beijing in 2002, says in an interview dated 26/01 that the virus is currently spreading from Wuhan to its neighbour cities/counties. It is still at its early stage. Lock-down of Wuhan is absolutely necessary . The sacrifice Wuhan people have made by staying put at home is helping to reduce the spread of the virus across the whole country.
He also says the spreading of the virus in Wuhan will slow down significantly once the treatment of severe patients and quarantine is totally separated. The designated hospital that is under 24-hour construction is reportedly to be in full operation on 3rd of February.
** These figure will probably fluctuate quite a lot in next few days due to the Chinese New Year, during which there would normally be around 3 billion people, including tens of millions of university students who went back to their home town during the winter break, traveling back and forth across China for family reunion/celebration and back to work/schools.

Posted by: lulu | Jan 26 2020 15:04 utc | 118

fyi
The Coronavirus Is Already Politically Fraught
https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2020/01/24/Coronavirus-Politically-Fraught-China-WHO-Frenzy/
“Serious disease outbreaks are always political…”

Posted by: John Gilberts | Jan 26 2020 15:17 utc | 119

56 deaths!? in the fog of mistruths.. make your own conclusions;
families initially told the infection of family member is coronavirus, on death certificate listed as pneumonia [Pay to read]

The corpse of Chen Min was wrapped in a yellow body bag with tape when it was delivered to the funeral home by workers in hazmat suits. The staff disinfected the van they travelled in and disposed of protective gear.
Despite being pressured into a quick cremation by authorities, the grieving family did not know if the 65-year-old had died from the novel coronavirus sweeping China. And they still don’t.
Official figures estimate that 41 people have died so far and 1,300 have been infected. But experts at Imperial College reckon as many as 9,700 could have come down the disease.
The swift disposal of Ms Chen’s body raises further questions about the scale of the problem.[.]

Coronavirus is becoming more contagious and can infect during incubation, Chinese authorities warn
People cured but they are working on a vaccine:
China starts developing vaccine against novel coronavirus

[.]
“Research and development of a vaccine for the novel coronavirus, which has caused a wider outbreak in China, is under way,” the paper writes, citing Xu Wenbo, head of the center’s viral disease control and prevention institute.
“Scientists from the center have successfully isolated the virus, and are working to select the proper strain for vaccine production,” the report said.[.]

Posted by: Likklemore | Jan 26 2020 16:00 utc | 120

Talking about swine flu,
I presume everybody knows what uncle sham did to Cuba ?

Giving Cuban exiles, for their use, the virus which causes African swine fever, forcing the Cuban government to slaughter 500,000 pigs.
Invading Cuba in 1961 at the Bay of Pigs.
Invading Grenada in 1983 and killing 84 Cubans, mainly construction workers.
Blowing up a passenger plane full of Cubans in 1976. (In 1983, the city of Miami held a day in honor of Orlando Bosch, one of the two masterminds behind this awful act; the other perpetrator, Luis Posada, was given lifetime protection in the same city.)
Infecting Cuban turkeys with a virus which produces the fatal Newcastle disease, resulting in the deaths of 8,000 turkeys.
In 1981 an epidemic of dengue hemorrhagic fever swept the island, the first major epidemic of DHF ever in the Americas. The United States had long been experimenting with using dengue fever as a weapon. Cuba asked the United States for a pesticide to eradicate the mosquito involved but was not given it. Over 300,000 cases were reported in Cuba with 158 fatalities.

https://www.foreignpolicyjournal.com/2016/03/17/cia-motto-proudly-overthrowing-the-cuban-government-since-1959/

Posted by: denk | Jan 26 2020 16:31 utc | 121

@Glagaire 76
As a a physician you can never overreact where it concerns the life of a patient. But you will be castigated to hell for underreacting.
I don’t expect you, a layman, to understand that. So leave it to the scientists and professionals to deal with this, however exaggerated.

Posted by: Alpi | Jan 26 2020 16:34 utc | 122

The average mortality rate from Coronaviruses is 10%
Reference:
https://www.nfid.org/infectious-diseases/coronaviruses/

Posted by: Richard | Jan 26 2020 16:38 utc | 123

When I first heard of swine flu in China 2019 which almost wiped out its pork supplies, my first thought was [[[the Usual Suspects]]]
What I dont know is [[[sobs]]] used drones to carry out the attacks !

Swine flu was propagated by drones
As strange was it seems, the complete collapse of the pig farm industry in China in 2019 was propagated by drones. This is why so many isolated pig farms became infected. “Criminal elements” were using drones to spray the pigs with flu to devastate the pork industry.
This is the Swine-flu pandemic in 2019.
Chinese Farmers: Criminals Are Using Drones to Infect Our Pigs
Commercial pig farm in China jams drone signal to combat …
Pig Farm In Trouble for Defenses Against Swine Fever …
Chinese gangsters use drones to spread African swine fever …
Have you ever heard of this?
It’s using technology to destroy an entire national industry. And it’s blamed on “criminal gangs”. I know that gangs are powerful, but why would they ever want to destroy a national resource? That is like Tony Suprano conspiring to sink every container ship in every port in the United States. It does not add up.

UNlesss they were paid big bucks by [[[you know who]]], like those Cuban exiles ?
https://metallicman.com/laoban4site/was-the-2020-wuhan-coronavirus-an-engineered-biological-attack-on-china-by-america-for-geopolitical-advantage

Posted by: denk | Jan 26 2020 16:59 utc | 124

@79 So that he can sneeze on his boss Lord R..

Posted by: Lozion | Jan 26 2020 17:01 utc | 125

Hello, b. I’ve never had much to contribute except pictures. I just love your commentary and, of course, memories of the Bertolt Brecht Brigade.

Posted by: beq | Jan 26 2020 17:01 utc | 126

@A User #96
Sorry, but your prejudice is showing.
At the end of 2017, 58.52% of all Chinese lived in an urban area. So unless you are saying citified Chinese keep a pig in their apartment, 50% is impossible.
Equally, there are a lot of non-farm, non-city ventures in China. Mining for rare earths is just one notable example.
The issue isn’t a nation of subsistence farmers – which you’re implying.
The issue is a nation of low-regulation, high growth proto-industrial farmer wannabes.
Indonesia is where urbanization is lower, and also the non-urban population is much more heavily subsistence farmer. And coincidentally, they’re also a lot poorer than China: China is in the 60s rank worldwide for per capita GDP while Indonesia is in the 100s to 110s.

Posted by: c1ue | Jan 26 2020 17:05 utc | 127

families initially told the infection of family member is coronavirus, on death certificate listed as pneumonia
Likklemore @ 120
———————————————————————————–
This is typical Western MSM disinformation reporting. Take a look of post number 97 by b:
People’s Daily, China @PDChina
Chinese health authorities announced Sunday that 1,975 confirmed cases of pneumonia caused by the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), including 324 in critical conditions and 56 deaths, had been reported in the country by the end of Saturday.

Posted by: lulu | Jan 26 2020 17:10 utc | 128

Do NOT delude yourself that biological warfare is conspiracy theory. Case A-The Cholera Epidemic of Haiti in 2010: Cholera Infected Nepalese blue helmets feces container was emptied in the Artibonite river that feeds the countryside north of Port-au-Prince. 10 000 deaths.
Case B-WHO public relations adviser asking to countermand Senegal’s Government decision to close border with Mali after its 1st certified death from Ebola, spreading from Guinea Conakry.
I was in Abidjan at the time and wrote the 1st article on Wiki about the pandemic..

Posted by: Lozion | Jan 26 2020 17:20 utc | 129

Seldom if ever is anything completely black and white in the real world.
I’m not an expert and this lacks detail and the following might or might not be an explanation but I think it is part of the bigger picture one might want to keep in mind so I’ll post it. It doesn’t negate anything said by anyone but might add a little bit of perspective to something which I wish will turn out to be “just another somewhat exotic viral strain”.
1. There is a natural time lag on any figures/numbers and this is well known by the medical profession and one of the challenges in preparing for the worst. Normal flu reporting has a minimum lag of about one week and even then with the caveat that the numbers are tentative and subject to correction. That is for testing of new and old varieties of ordinary well-known flu strains. This kind of continuous (but not all-encompassing, not everyone is tested and not everyone tested is tested to the same fidelity of identification, it’s all just a sample) testing happens at least during the local flu season all across the world. In some places like for example population hot-spots like China it might happen every week, I don’t know.
2. Thus in order to attempt to be pro-active for what could (but often won’t be) a particularly virulent new strain the threshold for setting all the gears in motion when something actually new is suspected is very low and starts with the first identification or any strong suspicion (when someone in the medical services consider something to be odd). A single case is enough when it is shown to not fit closely to any of the common known strains that tests already exist for.
3. I would have liked to have found documentation for the following but it is my impression that following from 2. and because time is essential in case something new is truly very virulent (active); that in such cases the flag goes up/alarm is raised outside of such things as formally written reports and much quicker and more directly between governments and the WHO. It won’t be a secret and while media ought to remain calm many instead bring out their biggest drums at the drop of a hat (and that can certainly be intentional for propaganda purposes and misinformation —which it almost is by default at such an early time). People/individuals can also walk straight into that trap of doing the same for all kinds of reasons including both well-intentional and malicious ones and all kinds of “personal nonsense”/”the human condition”. This could explain why some media were very fast at running “war type” headlines.
– – – –
The beq picture/painting is very nice, does anyone else see someone reading a newspaper while looking over their shoulder at a perching bird, perhaps on a window sill? Treasure the good things in life 🙂

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Jan 26 2020 17:43 utc | 130

How could the average mortality of coronaviruses be anything like 10 percent? If 10 to 15 percent of common colds in humans are caused by coronaviruses, that must be the overwhelming majority of coronavirus infections in humans.

Posted by: lysias | Jan 26 2020 17:54 utc | 131

Lathechuck@16
1. Are you sure you have grasped the basic math calculation? Sorry to ask this question because your calculation/assumption @16 is totally wrong.
If 100 persons got food poison, among which 42 are dead, 39 recovered, 19 stay in hospital.
After one week of treatment, 18 of the 19 patients are recovered and 1 died. What’s the final death rate and recovery rate of this food poison accident?
The correct answer: Death rate = (42+1)/100 = 43%; Recovery rate = (39+18)/100 =57%
2. The 62-year old retired MD died because he had caught on the novel coronavirus and found out at the late stage of the infection when diagnosed. His death is not different to any other patients who were diagnosed at the late stage of infection. Please don’t use American mindset to assume he’d get the best care available unlike the average resident because he’s MD.
Rich Chinese do have their perks that money can buy them. However, in general, you get the same care in public hospitals, especially under current crisis situation. Most hospitals in China today still are public hospitals, though there are rackecterers, both Chinese and Westerners (esp. Americans) are trying hard to push to privatise them to import American style “advanced” health system.

Posted by: lulu | Jan 26 2020 18:01 utc | 132

Jen @ 91
Thanks for the link. It’s nice to see some Wuhan Expats are waking up from the Western MSM propaganda. Hopefully more will come to know how their money-controlled-for-profit “free”MSM and social media have been brain washing them all these years.
Here is another link that tries to push back the MSM narratives: Literally however China reacts to the situation will be weaponised against it by Western media.

Posted by: lulu | Jan 26 2020 18:39 utc | 133

A quick glance of twitter, I see the following “insightful” Western narratives:
– Pure bullcraps: 100,000+ dead, dead bodies lying around on hospital floors, digging mass graves;
– Alarmist/Hysteria: I-dare-not-touch-my-parcel-sent-in-from-China, pandemic will kill the world;
– Commie tries cover-ups, it doesn’t give a sh!t about the ordinary Chinese, lock-down violates human rights, experts dare not to make public statement (pls check out the experts’ interviews in my post@118);
– Racist remarks: Chinese are dirty and despicable, Allah’s curse on Chinese b/c it has 1 million Uighurs in concentration camps, etc.
The cyber disinformation war is not limited to Western MSM, Twitter and Facebook, we have tons of lies and mis/disinformation spread all over Chinese social media. (Use google translation to have some fun reading!)

Posted by: lulu | Jan 26 2020 18:51 utc | 134

Posted by: Scientist | Jan 26 2020 13:51 utc | 115

Of course microbes are an essential part of the web of life as a class ( not so sure about viruses – if we wiped out coronaviruses I think the world would still keep on going ). However for many – and not just those rare few that can be successful against healthy adults – we are just walking food – your body and immune system is keeping them at bay all the time.

I’m also not sure about the virus class. It is a latin word for poison, and from what I was able to see are only artist renderings. Bacteria can be displayed in microscopy, but viruses cannot be displayed by scientific methods. How is that? This is strange, but I’m sure you can help me out in this matter. In the 90’s I read an article from a microbiologist that said there was not a single scientific relevant display of viruses. Since then I still wait for such an image. You’re the ‘scientist’, you may shed a light on this matter.

Yes and no – we have barely touched the surface of all the microbes out there – but actually for some of them – like E.Coli – we have a much better understanding of them than of pretty much any living thing

indeed we know a lot about certain microorganisms. And certain species like the fruit fly. But what really is going on inside a cell is still something shrouded by multiple enigmas. You know that.
But that’s a debate that is beyond my comprehension and education. I’m all ears for your insights and thoughts. Thank you for being kind with me, I appreciate that.

Posted by: Phil | Jan 26 2020 18:53 utc | 135

Zerohedge posted a clickbait
I’d like to know who did the counting? In a city of 11 million nearly one-half (<50%) left before the city was locked down.
little math:-
out of 11 million:
“5 million people left…..all are Potential carriers?
As a result, only 9 million people were remaining” !!!!
5 Million Potential Carriers Have Left Wuhan As Coronavirus Appears To Mutate Into “More Transmissable” Form

“Authorities have prevented anyone from leaving Wuhan, the city of 11 million people at the heart of the viral outbreak which has so far infected nearly 1,300 people and killed 41 others” AFP writes adding that its reporters saw “a steady trickle of cars approaching the roadblocks around 20 kilometres (12 miles) east of the city centre on Saturday morning, only for police in fluorescent jackets wearing masks to tell them to turn around.”[.]
Yet, but… there is just one problem: the much needed quarantine and lockdown were far too late, because as Wuhan’s mayor Zhou Xianwang revealed on Sunday during a press conference, about 5 million residents had already left Wuhan before the lockdown because of the deadly coronavirus epidemic and the Spring Festival holiday. As the SCMP reports, many of Wuhan’s residents had already left the city for the holiday, while others rushed out after the lockdown was announced on Wednesday night.
As a result, only 9 million people were remaining in the city after the lockdown, with roughly a third of it, including countless cases of coronavirus, having already spread across China.[.]

Posted by: Likklemore | Jan 26 2020 19:08 utc | 136

From what I heard on the radio, scientists are already well advanced on devising a vaccine. If you know the structure of the virus, creating a vaccine can be done. Adapting from already existing vaccines, to the particular DNA of this one.

Posted by: Laguerre | Jan 26 2020 19:10 utc | 137

Phil I am happy I can direct you to look at the virus images at Wikipedia. Since it’s Wikipedia they don’t have all that many images due to their copyright requirements, someone here might know of much better sources of imagery freely available on the internet. I think we had pictures such as those in the nineties as well considering atoms were imaged in something like 1986 (the IBM Xenon atoms logo thing was in 86 wasn’t it?) and viruses are a lot bigger.
Oops the IBM Xenon logo was in 1989. That logo is made of 35 atoms.
Back on topic in their own right viruses are actually very cool “creatures” on the very line of debate about what is or should be thought of as “living” (no general formal biological definition of life existed when I last studied anything about biology, maybe that has changed —I still can’t believe it is 2020). There’s even smaller stuff than viruses too.
For stuff like this (what should be but never is general knowledge and a source of wonder) Wikipedia is just fine.
There is and will likely always be a lot we don’t know but the things we do know should fill us with wonder and amazement like starry-eyed children because every (Planck length or less) “moment” of the existence of every one of us is a continuous miracle considering how unlikely everything actually is (yet it is) 😀
Too many people are too worried about not understanding science and math but gawping and a little bit of fascination is a big step in itself and just about all I can do myself 🙂

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Jan 26 2020 19:31 utc | 138

In ongoing efforts to tamp down hysteria and false information, I post a couple of articles from Martin Armstrong:
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/disease/coronavirus-chinas-bio-weapons-lab-conspiracy/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/disease/the-disease-cycle-turned-up-next-peak-2022/
Not saying that these are the definitive answers but certainly worth reviewing and certainly worth some thought. I will say the cycle article caught me completely uninformed and will reflect on that more with more research.
I still deferring going out to purchase a hazmat suit, regardless as to what WHO and CDC come up with (sarc).

Posted by: Thomas Minnehan | Jan 26 2020 19:47 utc | 139

@ Realist: I completely agree. No need for virus to be geno-type specific to create lots of economic havoc and toss a nice big wrench into the BRI. The more the virus spreads all over the world the better it is for the Dark State to literally “isolate” and demonize China. Also, plays into fear of the racist fear of Oriental hordes and their diseases. That this virus emerges during an unprecedented swine fever epidemic in China, and emerges during the world’s biggest annual human migration, Chinese New Years, just at lull in a nasty trade dispute during which China is moving into the oil business in Iraq and Iran. Correct me if I’m wrong, B, but isn’t all of known human history a series of continuous and overlapping acts of conspiracy? As far as I can see this attack checks off every economic covert op goal on the list.

Posted by: casey | Jan 26 2020 19:47 utc | 140

@lysias #131
Coronavirus is a family, not a specific virus.

Posted by: c1ue | Jan 26 2020 20:21 utc | 141

@Laguerre #137
From what I read, there are a number of different types of vaccines.
The quickest (and earliest examples) were attenuated agents – actual disease but damaged or weakened in some way to confer immunity without getting the full blown disease.
What is not written about much is that Edward Jenner – the smallpox vaccine using cowpox – was a practitioner of attenuated smallpox. Prior to the cowpox, it was a big business to give people attenuated smallpox, then hospitalize them so that they would get immunity. Death rates were supposedly around 1% vs. 10% or more if you just got it the old fashioned way.
The second way is to create a protein replicant which causes the immune system to recognize the target virus and build immunity. Being able to see the structure helps, but it still takes time and experimentation to see what the “target” protein coat structure is (and verify it doesn’t cause autoimmune attacks or trigger other bad things).
Even once such a protein structure is identified, there is still significant work in the manufacturing process needed to create a known protein setup.
Dropping individual atoms is all fine and good, but biological substances are generally multiple orders of magnitude more atoms and have structural properties as well.
Long story short: it is extremely unlikely that a vaccine could be created, manufactured in volume and shipping in any time frame under months to years. Only if an existing protein setup is really close could a shorter time frame be possible.

Posted by: c1ue | Jan 26 2020 20:28 utc | 142

R0 range now estimated 3.30<->5.47, no panic required sure, but still dead serious…
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.916395v1

Posted by: rototo | Jan 26 2020 20:36 utc | 143

The average mortality rate from Coronaviruses is 10%
Reference:
https://www.nfid.org/infectious-diseases/coronaviruses/
Posted by: Richard | Jan 26 2020 16:38 utc | 123
I actually clicked on the link in your post, and the article clearly states that the mortality rate from SARS is about 10%. This is pretty far from the mortality rate from all types of diseases due to Coronaviruses, as the article also makes clear.

Posted by: Chinese American | Jan 26 2020 20:40 utc | 144

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Jan 26 2020 19:31 utc | 138
thank you. But it’s still the same. No images of real life viruses. We talk about them all day, but there is no scientific proof. I’ll wait another decade until there is at least a glimpse of real scientific evidence. Where has science gone? I hope that the scientist here can solve the problem.
With that I certainly don’t want to make fun of science. Not at all. It is just that I try to pursue a scientific path with proven facts. I have no facts available concerning viruses. Give me one single image, and I will believe (or at least consider to believe).

Posted by: Phil | Jan 26 2020 20:47 utc | 145

Posted by: lulu | Jan 26 2020 15:04 utc | 118
Many thanks for the update, I believe the team of Chinese doctors and volunteers deserve Nobel peace prize

Posted by: JC | Jan 26 2020 20:48 utc | 146

Indonesia is far larger at 273,523,615 but still much less by an order of magnitude than China at 1,439,323,776 . Nevertheless previously unseen viruses have popped outta Indonesia from time to time – given the population of Indonesia is about one eighth or 12.5% of China,
Posted by: A User | Jan 26 2020 7:35 utc | 96
Hm. !439/273 < 1500/273 < 1500/250 = 6. So we are not surprised that Indonesia has ca. 19% of the population of China.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Jan 26 2020 20:53 utc | 147

Whatever the outcome, the Chinese are doing what they can to contain the outbreak. Many of the containment approaches would not work in the US due to atomization of society. Here are a couple of “be prepared” articles:
Background on coronavirus:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=570&v=Nk5P_iRYwTY&feature=emb_logo
Tips on increasing immune response:
https://www.lewrockwell.com/2020/01/bill-sardi/your-chance-of-developing-symptoms-or-dying-from-the-menacing-coronavirus-that-now-threatens-global-human-populations-is-0-0000017482-symptoms-0-0000001137-death/
Being prepared also works in case some idiot starts a nuclear war or civil war erupts over someone lost an election.

Posted by: Krollchem | Jan 26 2020 20:56 utc | 148

Whatever happened to the Zika panic? It seems like as soon as the Olympics in Brazil were over, the panic disappeared from the media machine. Did the Zika stop when the Olympics stopped, or is it that the “West” just doesn’t care about deformed babies when they are Brazilians?

Posted by: Trailer Trash | Jan 26 2020 21:24 utc | 150

GreatGameIndia dot com is sourced by Zerohedge for a story about Chinese scientists stealing coronavirus and sending to China. The link is not functional in the hedge story and attempts to access meet error. WordPress advises its a subscription only site.
The Zerohedge story is good material but the facts are not linked well. My take was ‘maybe’. Time will tell.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jan 26 2020 21:28 utc | 151

Posted by: lulu | Jan 26 2020 15:04 utc | 118
It’s good to see someone who actually reads Chinese here, among a sea of speculations based on third-hand MSM English-language information.
If I may add a few personal observations from following Chinese media and social media (mostly weibo) for the last few days:
1. There is a lot of information in Chinese news sources, including the number of confirmed and suspected cases in each province, the number of people who have been in close contact with these cases, a fair amount of medical detail about many of the victims who have died. (For what it’s worth, most of the fatalities so far have been people over 60, or with underlying health issues.) All the information and related news have been continuously updated.
2. For comparison, I just saw on CNN (the TV was facing my table at a restaurant, so I couldn’t avoid it) that four cases have been confirmed in the US. The anchor was sighing about how it will be a “big task” to find and isolate all the people who have been in close contact with these four cases (e. g. people who were on the same flights), which will make containment difficult. China is trying to do this for all the people who have been in close contact with the 2,000 confirmed cases so far.
3. There is no need to hide the fact that people are quite openly critical of the Wuhan city and Hubei provincial governments for their delays in reacting to the situation. The central government apparently took over around January 20, at which point all responses kicked into massive high gear.
4. The story mentioned by lulu @134 claiming “100,000+ dead, dead bodies lying around on hospital floors, digging mass graves”: if it is the one I’m thinking about, it is a video of a guy who claims to be a doctor in Wuhan (but in a swimming cap and the wrong kind of face mask). Local social media users have also said that they guy’s Wuhan accent was a bad imitation. Hmmm, I wonder where his actual accent might be from…
5. About the 5 million people who have left Wuhan: this is approximately the number of non-permanent residents in Wuhan. Mostly people who returned to their hometowns at the start of the New Year holidays. These numbers definitely pose a huge challenge, but it’s the kind of numbers one gets when it comes to China.
6. People in China are overwhelmingly supportive of quarantines and travel restrictions at this point.
7. China’s population density, and the amount of travel people do around this time of the year, is probably hard to imagine for Westerners who never visited there. However, its ability to mobilize is probably also hard to imagine for Westerners who never visited there.

Posted by: Chinese American | Jan 26 2020 21:35 utc | 152

Posted by: Whatever | Jan 26 2020 21:22 utc | 149
And here is the image of this virus, first released yesterday:
http://nmdc.cn/#/nCoV
One more note about the fatality vs “cured” numbers: the number of those “cured” is, more precisely, the number of people who have been confirmed cases, and already fully recovered and released from the hospital. There are people who are currently in recovery, but still waiting to be released (two negative tests is the current requirement).

Posted by: Chinese American | Jan 26 2020 21:52 utc | 153

First time posting here, and B, I am a regular reader of your blog, meaning, you appear to have excellent insight on many levels. I thank you.
While I hope and pray (and yes, I do believe in prayer) that you are correct in your assessments regarding this event, I cannot agree with you, for a few very specific reasons. Your expertise is in intelligence and world affairs; mine is in medicine.
1. Whether true or not, I have read reports this is in fact a bio-weapon that was released (accidentally or otherwise). Wuhan has a level 4 facility at the epicenter of the infection. Coincidence?
2. Reports are the virus was stolen from a bio-weapons lab in Canada. I have no idea if this is true.
3. The problem w/ SARS is it killed too quickly as compared to the incubation period, and the same applies to many virii. This new virus has a 10-14 day incubation period, meaning, many hundreds of thousands (if not millions) were exposed prior to there being a single confirmed case. That concerns me. Thus,
4. With this virus and it’s long incubation period, the exposed person may be contagious long before they show any symptoms.
5. Chinese statistics are lies. That is, the OFFICIAL death rate is 4%, yet, Chinese officials are listing the vast majority of deaths as “community acquired pneumonia” and as simply “viral pneumonia,” and NOT as the Coronavirus. In other words, the mortality percentage is FAR higher than 4% (definitely in the double-digits). The doctors there are telling relatives their loved one have the new virus, yet the listed cause of death is not that. These suggest this may be one of the deadliest epidemics in history, and I pray I am wrong.
6. In the realm of conspiracy theories, and yes I do believe in some of these, Agenda 21 (and others) WANT this. It will be an excuse for the end of our freedoms, our very way of life. It will bring in martial law, collapse of society, economic depression, etc.
7. China has stated it is working on a cure as well as a vaccine. As the first confirmed case was December 1st, this seems rather odd, unless they were working on these long before. Coincidence?
8. China is building two complete hospitals each within two weeks, and that takes intense planning and preparation. Coincidence?
9. Here where I live, basically in the middle of nowhere, we routinely test older people for RSV, which is a viral respiratory infection. We especially do this if they have secondary medical issues, meaning a weakened immune response. There does exist a test for the Coronavirus (among others), but at Duke costs (on average) $5,000 per test. While no doubt cheaper in China, they may simply not have sufficient quantities of kits for these tests. This would explain why the listed cause of deaths is not what it should be, and if true, proves the mortality rate is in the double digits.
10. Wuhan area hospitals are overwhelmed by the sheer numbers of patients with an unknown viral pneumonia.
Lastly, by the time the first case was confirmed, millions may have already been exposed, and not just in China, and with modern travel (as compared to the days of say the Spanish Flu), it could already be throughout the world.
Please feel free to correct me if your knowledge of these events supersedes mine. As stated, my field is medicine, not world affairs and the intelligence services.
Again, I thank you for a most excellent blog.

Posted by: DrM | Jan 26 2020 22:33 utc | 154

No need to panic? Sure, if you don’t know how to do math.

Posted by: ebolax | Jan 26 2020 22:34 utc | 155

I think Phil might be asking for what I guess one should or could call an optical light-wave photograph of a virus.
There are a few giant viruses large enough to be photographed in a plain microscope using only light but finding any on the internet looks like an awful lot of work and I’m doubting if anyone has bothered to post any considering how more clearer and useful the higher resolution of other approaches are. If they did it’s still easily drowned out by all the other far better and far more common “non-light” images. I’m not going to spend more time on that than the fast unsuccessful search I did but if anyone happens to have a link to anything like it I’m interested (don’t spend any extra time on it though).
Other than that I can only point out that many electron microscope images (electron photographs rather than light photographs, if that makes the difference plainer) look similar to what microscope photos of cells used to look like in old black and white textbooks. It’s not like either are visible unaided to the naked eye.
Like these examples of giant mimiviruses in Figure 3 taken from this paper.

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Jan 26 2020 23:04 utc | 156

@ Posted by: DrM | Jan 26 2020 22:33 utc | 154
1, 2 – A lot of high-security labs around the world have many viruses mutations which would cause devastating epidemics if released. They are kept there for research purposes. It doesn’t make them all “bioweapons”.
3, 4 – The Chinese government has already publicly stated the virus has a 10-14 incubation period, that it is spreading faster as we’re speaking, and that it seems to be contagious even in its incubation period. The Chinese people already knows all of that, there’s no censorship.
5 – But that would also mean this new coronavirus has a lower spread rate (R0), which would be good news.
6 – The problem with this theory are many: why did the elites only release it now, and not, say 30 years ago? How would they keep themselves isolated from these new bioweapons, since they are also human? In a capitalist system, why would the elites kill their source of profit, that is, the working class?
7,9 – The Chinese government has recognized it failed in early diagnosis of this new coronavirus. They were specially bitter by the fact that the mutation was actually first diagnosed by a German laboratory. The Chinese people is certainly not kept in the dark about this.
8 – We could also invert your question. We could speculate why your country is so inneficient and corrupt instead, to the point you think it is weird a hospital can be built in 10 days.
10 – That answers your question about why the new hospitals are being built.

Posted by: vk | Jan 26 2020 23:07 utc | 157

Anthony Fauci, M.D. of the NIH announced that trials of a vaccine for Corona 2019 could begin within 3 months.

Posted by: Rob | Jan 26 2020 23:10 utc | 158

http://stateofthenation.co/?p=5231
Quote:
WUHAN CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC BIOENGINEERED: Who’s behind it, why now and why China?
A Complex Psyop Perpetrated to Distract,
Enforce Mandatory Vaccinations and Coerce China to Comply with American Demands
End quote
.
.
.
Don’t take any vaccinations, folks.
That’s how they caused the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic
themillenniumreport.com/2018/11/spanish-flu-of-1918-was-really-a-bioterror-attack-on-humanity/
.
https://www.getholistichealth.com/78234/book-spanish-influenza-vaccinations/

Posted by: John Doe | Jan 26 2020 23:32 utc | 159

Its a cold virus. There are 4 strains that are endemic world wide. As a new strain it may cause more of a problem than endemic strains especially for older people or those with poor immune systems and other diseases, but they are at risk from typical colds and flu too.
In a province with over 40 million people there are 2000 cases after over a month. Do the math, 1 in 20,000 have symptoms bad enough they have been tested or suspected. 80 have died. Probably many more have been exposed and were either asymptomatic or mild enough that people assumed it was just a typical cold during a time of year when people expect to get colds .
It would be helpful if China could provide details on the deaths such as the age distribution. The fact they have not , or that its not being reported seems telling. The reporters obviously want people to be scared so why not disclose that many of the deaths were among healthy and young people (20-50). Maybe because if they tell you most of the deaths were among elderly and those already sick it wouldn’t seem scary enough
Just another example of Disaster Capitalism IMO. Money is to be made. I guess people like to be scared, I hope so since they scare so easily.
Oh well, carry on

Posted by: Pft | Jan 27 2020 0:04 utc | 160

re Rob | Jan 26 2020 23:10 utc | 158
Sorry, but I don’t believe a word of anyone to do with NIH. Fauci’s offsider Robert Gallo stole a sample of the HIV virus which had been isolated in France, then claimed he had discovered it first. The French had held off making an announcement until they had completed all testing. Gallo got caught out because the sample he claimed to have isolated was absolutely identical to the French sample – an impossibility given the continuous evolution of that retrovirus.
This was a big controversy in the 80’s which the amerikans tried to resolve by leaning on French politicians eventually Chirac & Reagan signed a piece of paper saying the virus had been ‘jointly discovered’.
Fine for pols but it didn’t cut it with research scientists cause in 2008 when the Nobel committee awarded a nobel prize for the guys who isolated the virus, Francoise Barre-Sinoussi and Luc Montagnier got the prize and Gallo was ignored.
amerikan medical research is corrupt, ridden with plagiarism and all about maximising Pharma returns, only a moron would trust the NIH on any issue.

Posted by: A User | Jan 27 2020 0:06 utc | 161

re Rob | Jan 26 2020 23:10 utc | 158
Sorry, but I don’t believe a word of anyone to do with NIH. Fauci’s offsider Robert Gallo stole a sample of the HIV virus which had been isolated in France, then claimed he had discovered it first. The French had held off making an announcement until they had completed all testing. Gallo got caught out because the sample he claimed to have isolated was absolutely identical to the French sample – an impossibility given the continuous evolution of that retrovirus.
This was a big controversy in the 80’s which the amerikans tried to resolve by leaning on French politicians eventually Chirac & Reagan signed a piece of paper saying the virus had been ‘jointly discovered’.
Fine for pols but it didn’t cut it with research scientists cause in 2008 when the Nobel committee awarded a nobel prize for the guys who isolated the virus, Francoise Barre-Sinoussi and Luc Montagnier got the prize and Gallo was ignored.
amerikan medical research is corrupt, ridden with plagiarism and all about maximising Pharma returns, only a moron would trust the NIH on any issue.

Posted by: A User | Jan 27 2020 0:06 utc | 162

A couple more points I forgot to mention, and I apologize.
11. As per the guidelines from the World Health Organization, this is already classified as a level 4 pandemic, meaning sustained human-to human transmission, ALTHOUGH, the WHO refuses to admit this fact. Officially, we are at Level 1, but in reality level 4.
12. When it reaches level 5, meaning sustained human-to-human transmission across borders, WHICH IT HAS, all travel must cease. In fact, we are nearing level 6, except the bureaucracies refuse to admit it. Once another country admits sustained transmission, it is game on. At this point there will be mass panic.
Spanish Flu was considered a global pandemic, and had a Case Mortality Rate of 2.5%, and the numbers coming from TESTED cases in China is 3.8%. These numbers are too low, in that most deaths are not being tested with the specific test kit required.
The infection rate is above 1, meaning it is sustained.
13. Medical supplies will become unavailable. Even we, both doctors, may have difficulty obtaining supplies.
14. IF this happens, food supplies will be unavailable, especially in large cities.
15. This virus is especially dangerous to the very young and old, due to weakened immune response. For the very healthy person, it will present as the worst flu you have ever experienced.
16. In China and as of this writing, 56 million people are under quarantine, we have confirmed cases in the US, Canada, France, etc, yet authorities are telling us there is no cause for alarm? Really?
17. Do you honestly believe we will go to our medical offices if we do not have adequate protection, such as Hazmat suits? Hospitals will be overwhelmed, and how long before medical personnel simply see their families as higher priority than strangers?

Posted by: DrM | Jan 27 2020 0:11 utc | 163

The disinfo on the internet is disgraceful
It reminds me of the video of Indians (from India, waving the Indian flag) being described as people from Iraq or Qatar or whatever Middle Eastern country which has a flag of similar colours as the Indian flag
Here’s a video titled “China coronavirus: a look inside the sealed off city of Wuhan”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CfcIHUdOI8w
Look at this comment and the replies
The CIA shills came out in force to discredit the info by saying it’s an Uigur speaking Turkish- go to the link if you wish to read all the CIA’s comments
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CfcIHUdOI8w&lc=UgwiDqaHPC0FiX1vkwh4AaABAg

Zuzutjuh 2 days ago
For the people who don’t understand Turkish the woman basically said how scary it was that just a few days ago the market was filled with people and now people are scared to go outside. Also a lot of fruit almost ran out since people try to do grocery shopping ASAP.(I think bc they want to avoid going to crowded spaces as much as they can)
.
.
Mis KITKAT BOOM Boom 1 day ago
Uigur
.
.
Zuzutjuh 1 day ago
Mis KITKAT BOOM Boom uitgum sounds different than the official Language of turkey she is definitely Turkish
.
.
LCRXNE 1 day ago
@Mis KITKAT BOOM Boom Uigurs are Turkic peoples.
.
.
Turkish Pattis 2 hours ago
@Mis KITKAT BOOM Boom she is Turkey Turkish.We saw on news.And she speaks Turkey Turkish

Posted by: John Doe | Jan 27 2020 0:21 utc | 164

Correction of my post@118 with updated information I just come across:
The incubating period of this novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is about 14-day, since medical experts advise people who come out of Wuhan or have been in the same subway or train carriage or plane with the passenger(s) who are later diagnosed as infected should stay at home for self-quarantine for 14-day.
– A MD from Hangzhou noticed one case that the virus could spread around during its incubating period: A guy from Wuhan who didn’t show any signs of infection during his stay in Hangzhou infected the people who came into contact with him.
This is going to make the control and monitor more difficult than initially thought. Now the Central and local governments are discussing to extend the Chinese New Year holidays so as to minimise the danger of potential virus spread due to mass population traveling back to their work places.
Many schools (incl universities) are announcing to delay the start of next semester.
– 桂希恩 (Gui Xi’en), epidemiologist from Wuhan, tells CCTV in an interview the turning point MAY come in ca two-week time but to totally control and eradicate of it will take months. (Probably less than the 6-months taken to eradicate SARS?)
Good news for the worrying readers here: he says the virus spread from person to person directly via saliva. (I read from somewhere that it can only happen when you are within 2-meter with the infected person.) None of the doctors or nurses at his hospital have got infected when taking care of the infected patients. With proper protection measures it is possible to prevent the spread.
(The 15 infected medical staff in Wuhan were probably due to lack of adequate protection measures at the initial stage.)
He also says the death rate of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is lower than that of SARS, which is 10%. Majority of patients infected by this virus are with mild symptoms and are curable.
The whole interview: 感染科专家:预计正月十五前武汉疫情可能出现拐点 (The key talking points are in this post.)
PS. Be cautious when come to the so-called news or information from inside China, because a disinformation war is simultaneously going on Chinese social media by the usual protagonists……

Posted by: lulu | Jan 27 2020 0:30 utc | 165

Gosh! The CIA are not using their best guys to churn out these panic videos
I’ve been reading the comments to the article at:
https://beforeitsnews.com/new-world-order/2020/01/coronavirus-proven-fake-8699.html
Some CIA guy posted 2 videos to prove how dire the situation is in China:

Nom De Plume
Leaves On Trees In Wuhan China January 24 2020
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CfcIHUdOI8w
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cmgPVhubmQA
Jan 24, 2020, 3:00 pm

And here’s someone debunking it:

DK
Chinese Evergreen (Magnolia delavayi) its native to the area and grows to 49 feet in height, but not planted everywhere in fact going to the stone site his photo has one covered in snow.(http://82.221.129.208/pages/wuhansnow.jpg) P1040937.jpg Wikimedia Commons.
Seen at 1.32 on your video at 1.35 a bare tree trunk 1.40 some green foliage so heavily shaped and pruned to the crown at 1.48 we have our first tree in fall and at 1.49 an entire street, no leaves have fallen but every tree is brown. At 2.03 shot back down a street all the trees are green bar one which is in fall.
The problem with the latter part of the video is that it looks taken in late November last year, there is no leaf litter, the only people wearing masks are walking with the cameraman & the empty shelves are full at 2.10 the terrified of being infected person has removed his mask.
Stock & staged footage along spliced with the initial aftermath of a panic buy in the local market.(https://youtu.be/QYiRcunBG1E) normal for Chinese New year its entirely normal in China 2 days before New Year to find everything sold out. There probably was a panic at the hospital, but the tree footage is some we did earlier in autumn last year. Some true stuff same fake, some misrepresented. The Reuters footage @1.20 is deliberately blurred, the aspect ratio is 4:3 so TV footage and if they did that, its probably not Wuhan either & stock from the 2002 SARS outbreak.
Vidoeo 2 you lost me at 1.13 with 44 CGI diggers operating without site managers all ‘within’ the arm traverse distance of each other just moving soil around, which is all what happens, you dig trenches with them, you load a truck with them, you move soil with bulldozers unless you are in a confined site. You had 4 bulldozers, just one would have cleared the site in a day. 😆 How not to build a hospital by February 101. Concrete wont set below 5C, it certainly wont set by February 3rd. Again some real footage, some CGI, some truth some lies. Cure period for concrete is at least 28 days and then you can start to build your hospital, a month after the outbreak has ended.
Jan 25, 2020, 6:54 pm

Posted by: John Doe | Jan 27 2020 0:42 utc | 166

One single point that I brought up, that is being overlooked.
The main test used is for RSV, which is also a respiratory virus. Coronavirus (and others like it) requires a very unique and rather expensive test, and in the case of China, simply is not available in quantities. Ergo, the specific test needed to confirm Coronavirus IS NOT BEING DONE. The result is the listed cause of death is viral pneumonia. These artificially lower the actual mortality rate of the disease. They are claiming 3.8%, when in fact it is significantly higher.
With an infection rate in excess of one, and here it is 2.5 or higher, it is sustained.
With an incubation period of at least 9 days, the infected person will be contagious for at least 4 days w/o any symptoms.
Now, say I am infected. I will see 30+ people a day in the medical setting, and most of the time I will be wearing a surgical mask. Still, I will expose at least 10 to the disease, of which at least 2 will become ill. By the time I am really showing symptoms I will have infected at least 10 others.
Say I work at a grocery store, say Walmart. I will expose at least 200 people per day. You do the math.
The actual Case Mortality Rates are far higher than reported, because the specific test needed to confirm the Dx is not being done. That is the point I am trying to get across.

Posted by: DrM | Jan 27 2020 0:45 utc | 167

Just see this: Debunk the false doctor video that goes viral on twitter
1. The doctor claims there are 90,000 people have been infected within a month, while According to WHO, a total of 8,098 people worldwide became sick with SARS during the 2003 outbreak..
IF what she says were true, which means the current novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infected 10 more times of people within a month than the whole SARS period (Nov. 2002 – Aug. 2003. According to this speed, the world population will be wiped out soon.
2. – It looks like she was reading the scripts while speaking because she was staring at only one direction
The way she put on her mouth mask/respirator is not how the real professional Chinese doctors would do. Click the above posted link to compare the two pix: the left one is the false doctor, the right one is the real doctor.
– The left false doctor’s mouth mask/respirator has breathing valve, while what the real Chinese doctor wear on the right does NOT have the breathing valve, for it accumulates virus, which would be harmful to the doctors.
– The blue plastic(?) hat she wears under the helmet in the left pix is totally different from what the real Chinese doctor wears on the right pix;
– She wears a plastic protection helmet, while the real Chinese doctor wears protective goggles.
3. One Netizen noticed at the end of the video “Da Ji Yuan”, a propaganda branch of the cult Falun Gong, appears.
“Da Ji Yuan” is financed none other than CIA. (Printing media of the world is under great financial constraint, but “Da Ji Yuan” are still year after year deliver free newspaper to all Chinese/Asian shops around the world every week! )
With US tax payers’ money, Falun Gong also has set up a TV station:https://www.ntdtv.com.
Beware a “White Helmet” type tool is being created and established for current and future smear campaign against China.

Posted by: lulu | Jan 27 2020 1:38 utc | 168

JohnDoe,AUser, #159,#161: Thanks much for trying to keep a lid on this hysteria!
Here is another individual who has been involved for years attempting to debunk this hysteria and disinformation; he agrees that the NIH is prob at the bottom for credibility. I would say CDC and WHO are at that point as well. The WHO actions during the H1N1 swine flue epidemic was disgraceful.
https://blog.nomorefakenews.com/2020/01/26/vaccine-for-the-china-virus-the-planet-is-the-guinea-pig-for-a-vast-experiment/

Posted by: Thomas Minnehan | Jan 27 2020 1:57 utc | 169

Posted by: lulu | Jan 27 2020 1:38 utc | 166
Hey, thanks very much for doing your best.
Some people will listen and personally I appreciate that very much. But even on a website like this, a lot of old white men people would rather believe in their own preconceived notions and imagination (based on zero knowledge), instead of what actual Chinese people say.

Posted by: Chinese American | Jan 27 2020 2:01 utc | 170

The latest update (till midnight of 26/01) of the spread of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) by National Health Commission (NHC):
Between 0-24 of 26/01/2020, there are 769 confirmed new infected patients from thirty provinces, incl. 137 new ones in critical conditions, 24 new deaths (all in Hubei province, where Wuhan locates), 3806 newly suspected cases.
Till midnight of 26/01/2020, the total accumulation numbers:
2744 confirmed infected patients in 30 provineces, including 461 in critical conditions;
80 deaths;
51 people cured;
5794 suspected cases reach.
Found 32,799 people who have come into close contacts with infected patients. 583 people have been released from medical monitoring (quarantine?), 30453 people are under medical monitoring(quarantine?).
– HK SAR: total 8 confirmed infected cases;
– Macao SAR: total 5 confirmed infected cases;
– Taiwan: total 4 confirmed infected cases. 
Information received from overseas:
– Thailand: total 7 confirmed infected cases;
– Japan: 3 confirmed infected cases; 
– S. Korea: 3 confirmed;
– US: 3 confirmed;
– Vietnam: 2 confirmed;
– Singapore: 4 confirmed;
– Malaysia: 3 confirmed;
– Nepal: 1 confirmed;
– France: 3 confirmed;
– Australia: 4 confirmed.
Here is the original update data: 26/01/2020 Update
You can check NHC Official Website for Daily update . You may just need to refresh the website a few times if it doesn’t show up or disappears.

Posted by: lulu | Jan 27 2020 2:25 utc | 171

Thank you lulu for the updates. So much propaganda and BS coming from the west! Not surprising, really.

Posted by: sorghum | Jan 27 2020 2:46 utc | 172

Below is a posting at Xinhuanet that clarifies where they think it started at this point……how it got there is another question.

BEIJING, Jan. 26 (Xinhua) — Experts of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) have successfully isolated the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in the environmental samples of a seafood market in Wuhan, indicating that the virus stems from wild animals on sale at the market.
Thirty-three of the 585 environmental samples collected from the Wuhan’s Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market were found to contain the nucleic acid of the novel coronavirus, according to the National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention under the China CDC.
Earlier reports quoted experts as saying that the geographical distribution of the cases indicated a close relationship between the epidemic and the seafood market.
Experts of the institute took the samples on Jan. 1 and Jan. 12 on instruction of the Chinese CDC.
Thirty-one of the 33 positive samples were collected from the western zone of the market, where booths of wildlife trading concentrated. The result suggests that the novel coronavirus outbreak is highly relevant to the trading of the wild animals, experts said.
The successful isolation of the novel coronavirus further substantiates that the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market contains a large quantity of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), according to the experts.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Jan 27 2020 3:21 utc | 173

On the geopolitical side of things it’s an incredibly bad idea for the MSM and their backers to —again— in effect take ownership of an event like some of them are doing. This is the second time in a year they do this against China. By taking ownership it doesn’t matter if they —whoever they are— were involved to begin with because they’re automatically also taking ownership of any responsibility whether or not the virus is entirely natural.
Anyone in the US and particularly all US armed forces should be extremely worried about how actively the US government wants to die and how they are shooting themselves in the head repeatedly.

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Jan 27 2020 3:36 utc | 174

@A User (161) When the vaccine trials begin, I hope that you will post a retraction of your broadside against the NIH, the single largest funder of medical research in the world. The number of important scientific discoveries that began with that institution is huge. Robert Gallo was not and is not the NIH.

Posted by: Rob | Jan 27 2020 3:42 utc | 176

Panic is never a good idea, but when the urge to panic erupts from the nether regions, it is a very good idea to put that energy to good use. Let’s say that building two new hospitals is a constructive use of that destabilizing impulse. Build ’em in record time. Work day and night and quarantine more than 40 million people in Hubei province.
Why would China take such extreme measures if there is no cause to panic? Because there actually in cause for panic and they have to work very hard to prevent impending chaos.
Why is there cause to panic? Because we all know in our bones that pandemic is inevitable, not merely because a lunatic named John of Patmos prophesied that it would be thus, but because there is historical precedent. In the 14th Century nearly half the world’s population was liquidated by the black plague. We know precious little in direct evidence, but we strongly suspect many millions of natives populating the North American continent were felled by plagues introduced by white Europeans. A mere remnant remained by 1620.
The flu of 1918 was ignored as far as possible by newspapers and local community boosters. Wilson wanted no distractions from his war agenda. Too much attention paid to plague could be construed as unpatriotic. There is no accurate database to inform us today and make us wise, but the global mortality is certainly underestimated today as it was then. Commonly 50 to 100 million. Surely it was more than that! John M Barry speculates as much as 400 million. But when the community buries the dead in a mass grave, how does one count them? Call in the forensic archaeologists to break through the denial.
There is good reason to panic. Only by studying the situation does one learn to embrace the terror of the situation and overcome that useless panic response. The situation is terrifying. We ARE defenseless against a truly virulent pathogen and the unwieldy herd of humanity WILL be culled by such a pathogen. This is inevitable. You know it and I know it, and we are afraid of that impulse to panic. There is a growing subculture of “preppers” or “survivalists” who have embraced their fear and loathing and run away from the doomed herd in an effort to elude the common fate.
100 seconds to midnight is not a cliche. What we should do friends and neighbors is try to reduce the causes for panic. This is like trying to reduce CO2 in the atmosphere. This is like trying to limit the growth of our own species so our populations do not exceed threshold limits. We are going to find out very shortly what those limits are. A pretension of rationality is no defense.

Posted by: jadan | Jan 27 2020 4:06 utc | 177

Chinese Amercian @168
Thanks for adding more information from Chinese social media. To be honest, till today I didn’t pay much attention to this virus thing ’cause I was/am pretty sure that the government will eventually take full control of the whole situation given its capability and experience to mobilise and coordinate nation-wide resources to handle such kind crises, such as 1998 Super Flood, 2002 SARS, 2008 Winter Storm and Sichuan Earthquake.
This kind 举国之力的赈灾 is totally embedded in the government governance DNA in Chinese history. Now CCP government just has more resources and better means than the emperors used to have.
But lots of Westerners who are so much trenched into their Western mentality simply can’t get a grasp how the Chinese government actually and traditionally governs the country. Especially the Anglo-Saxon who have been so used to the idea that money rules everything . They can’t imagine that Chinese Central government overrules the moneyed-class.
For example, because of surging demand and short of supply, some businessmen attempted to raise the prices of the mouth masks/respirators. The government has just issued a decree that anyone who hoard mouth masks/respirators and related medical supplies for profiteering/racketeering will get grave punishment.
Local governments require some closed factories for the Chinese New Year to re-open and start to produce the much needed masks and protection suits.
State-owned companies are working their ass off to produce and deliver the much needed medical supplies to Wuhan.
Yesterday morning, the military just delivered a full train of the N95 masks, protection suits and other medical supplies to Wuhan.
The government asks the cancellation of hotels, flight and train tickets should be fully refunded without any punitive charge.
The first batch of doctors (around 1000 at the time I am typing) from other part of China (Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Xuzhou, Shanxi, Heilongjiang, etc.) have arrived in Wuhan to support the very much depleted medical staff there. More to come
Latest: Tomorrow (27/01) the government will send in another 12 medical teams (1,600+ staff) to Wuhan with much needed supplies from all over China
(Sending Yi Liao Dui aka Medical Corp/teams from all over China to the areas hit by disasters is a very normal crisis management measure by Chinese government. CCP members and leaders are required to be among the first batch to fight on the front line. I think no MSM bothers to report this.)
Such “authoritarian” anti-free market measures are probably too much for the free-market and democracy lovers in Western to stomach, I guess.

Posted by: lulu | Jan 27 2020 4:06 utc | 178

jadan@175
To be totally honest, Chinese inside China are far more relaxed than the Western MSM and its brainwashed readers.
Talk to families and friends inside China and take a look of Chinese social media, Chinese are closely following the situation while carry on with their lives, esp. those not in the center of crisis.
It is the Western MSM and the cyber warriors who are whipping hysteria and creating panics around the world.

Posted by: lulu | Jan 27 2020 4:28 utc | 179

Is someone up there tired of how the [[[bastards]]] have made a mess of his handiwork ?
All of a sudden, the picture become so clear.
Every thing start to click together. ???

————————————————–
Talking about bird flu 2013,
how could I fail to mention the biggie….. H7N9 in 2018 ???
————————————–
The Chinese chicken industry was almost wiped out in 2018 by the bird flu virus.

You do not need to believe me.
Just Google for viral outbreaks in China. Ever since President Donald Trump became President and incorporated Neocon “War Hawks” on his Negotiation team, China has been wracked with all sorts of [1] new, [2] novel, and [3] unusually lethal strains of viral agents. All of which cripple the Chinese people, food and livestock.
https://metallicman.com/laoban4site/was-the-2020-wuhan-coronavirus-an-engineered-biological-attack-on-china-by-america-for-geopolitical-advantage

—————————
Thanks for the reminder !
NOW GET THIS…..
DO YOU KNOW THERE’S A NIH SPONSORED PROJ TO WEAPONISE H7N9 AND…..THEY EVEN PUBLISHED THE RESULT !!!
Here’s good ole Janet Phelan again,….

‘This planet has already achieved a delicate balance between all species, long before we arrived. But the self-deluded geniuses wanted more excitement to the show. There is a conspiracy to spread the flu virus at the widest coverage possible, and it’s not just a theory.
The scientists themselves who were conducting the specific research on how they made H7N9 virus increase its rate of human transmissions are already publicizing it.
More than that, they are also studying specific strains from different locations on Earth, so that a gene, or race, specific attack can be made possible.

The viruses being experimented upon “have been collected in at least 28 countries in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia.”
View this document on Scribd
How to Kill a Whole Lot of People: Scripps Scientists Publish
How They Made H7N9 Virus More Transmissible
By Janet Phelan
“>https://eclinik.net/heres-the-proof-flu-virus-was-deliberately-weaponized-for-widest-transmission/

———————————————-
Somebody noticed this….

Socio-Economics History Blog
Socio-Economics & History CommentaryHome
AboutWeaponized Bird Flu Research Published as Virus ‘Just Mutations’ Away from Pandemic!
Why would any sane person publish details about how to weaponize bird flu? We are not dealing with sane people. We are dealing with people infected by the blasphemous reality of the mentally ill: Satanism. We are dealing with Illuminists-Satanists who are out to execute their agenda for depopulation, genocide, fomenting chaos, diseases, deaths, violence …. to initiate hell on earth … to prepare the way for their fake messiah, the Anti-Christ, the bringer of false peace, the white horseman of Revelation 6. They want to use bio-weapons and even race specific Bird Flu in this coming Satanic World War 3.

This act of publishing the detail how-to of airborne transmissible virulent Bird Flu is just for plausible deniability before the western Illuminati employs it. They will say it is an act of rogue terrorists and nothing to do with their MIC.

Page 72 of PNAC (Project for New American Century) Report And advanced forms of biological warfare that can “target” specific genotypes may transform biological warfare from the realm of terror to a politically useful tool.

Ex. British Military: The Illuminati Plans World War 3 in 18 – 24 Months!
China will catch a Cold … During the nuclear ceasefire, there is planned to be a covert release of biological weapons. These will initially be targeted against the Chinese. As our source chillingly told us, “China will catch a cold”. Biological warfare will spread further, to the west. Infrastructure will be critically weakened. This is intended to be just the beginning. After this, a full nuclear exchange would be triggered: the “real” war, with widespread destruction and loss of life. Our source tells us that the planned population reduction through these combined means is 50%. He heard this figure stated in the meeting.

[link is dead, webarchive doesnt help these days]
—————————–
No sooner than the guy made that astute observation when H7N9 hit China in late 2017 which wiped out the Chinese poultry industry… !!!
——————-
Nov 2017
Is China Ground Zero for a Future Pandemic?
Yin, who is 50 and wearing a neat gray polo shirt, is thumbing through a thick sheaf of medical records, pointing out all the ways physicians and traditional healers failed his wife. She was stricken by vomiting and fatigue this past March, but it took more than a week to determine she’d been infected by H7N9, an influenza virus that had jumped across the species barrier from birds to humans. By the time doctors figured out what was wrong with her, it was too late.
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/china-ground-zero-future-pandemic-180965213/

Posted by: denk | Jan 27 2020 4:35 utc | 180

denk @176: While I have no doubt that our spooks would do such a thing – it is clear nothing is too asinine for them to consider, there is just no reason to do it; Chinese commercial practices when it comes to food animals is guaranteed to spit these sort of diseases out with some regularity.

Posted by: Bemildred | Jan 27 2020 5:17 utc | 181

Bemildred
Food practices are not a lot different to a good part of the world population. But if that were the case, then a lot these diseases would be kicking off in India.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 27 2020 6:07 utc | 182

@DrM | Jan 26 2020 22:33 utc | 154
8. China is building two complete hospitals each within two weeks, and that takes intense planning and preparation. Coincidence?
China built a hospital for SARS in just seven days from a cold, standing start. And that was 17 years ago, in 2003. Their techniques have probably improved since. They can definitely do it.
How do they do it? By using prefabricated modules, of course.

Posted by: Cyril | Jan 27 2020 6:20 utc | 183

Live: View of construction site of Wuhan’s novel coronavirus hospitals
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BDmwWSjaTro
CGTN YouTube.

Posted by: JC | Jan 27 2020 7:36 utc | 184

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Jan 26 2020 19:31 utc | 138

There is and will likely always be a lot we don’t know but the things we do know should fill us with wonder and amazement like starry-eyed children because every (Planck length or less) “moment” of the existence of every one of us is a continuous miracle considering how unlikely everything actually is (yet it is) 😀

indeed, when you think about it how fragile and yet stable every life form is. It’s a miracle.
Posted by: Whatever | Jan 26 2020 21:22 utc | 149
true, the tobacco mosaic virus is relatively well known, and the images are convincing. The problem is, according to the microbiologist I mentioned earlier, that he can see proteins and cell fragments in those images. Not viruses (virii, but I prefer the word viruses). He is questioning the very definition of virus and their existence. I am not in a position to judge this claim, as I also cannot tell that the mainstream science is wrong or right. There are other theories about illness and infection, but they need to be proven first.
It is just that if science knows so much about viruses and virus strains, why aren’t there more photographs instead of graphics in publications and in the media? That would make the entire thing much more convincing and appealing. Is it too expensive to create photographs, or are they afraid to show only proteins and cell fragments? I don’t know, but I remain sceptical.
Posted by: Chinese American | Jan 26 2020 21:52 utc | 153
Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Jan 26 2020 23:04 utc | 156
thanks for the images.

Posted by: Phil | Jan 27 2020 8:01 utc | 185

@JC | Jan 27 2020 7:36 utc | 182
Live: View of construction site of Wuhan’s novel coronavirus hospitals
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BDmwWSjaTro

Thanks for the link. I plan to drop in there regularly to see how it’s going.
By the way, the BBC article I linked to earlier shows a very murky picture of the construction site. (Propaganda: China’s air pollution is very bad everywhere, all the time.) From the live view of the same site, if you visit during the day, Wuhan time, it’s clear that the BBC picture was probably doctored.

Posted by: Cyril | Jan 27 2020 9:07 utc | 186

lulu and Chinese American, big thank you for keeping the cultural dialogue and its context balanced and credible.
DrM thank you for crystal clear information even if a little stark.
I am sure the Chinese Government will do its best as it has a record of superhuman effort in times of disaster and natural calamities. Compare that with the abject response in the USA to hurricane impacts over the past few years.
I note the Chinese President is at home and committed to his duties unlike the Australian PM who was at a beach in Hawaii or some such while the nation incinerated.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jan 27 2020 10:21 utc | 187

Where it all began…………………

Since 2001, the US government has poured over $100 billion dollars into what was initially called “Biodefense” but has euphemistically been renamed “Health Security.” Many of these programs are dual-use; that is to say the research can be used for either protection or weaponization. Scientists argue that it is necessary to first create the weapon (in this case a pandemic agent) in order to research the cure.
https://eclinik.net/heres-the-proof-flu-virus-was-deliberately-weaponized-for-widest-transmission/

[[[They]]] spew the same BS about the cyber research,

‘we need to familiarize us with all sorts of cyber attacks in order to defend ourselves from other rogue states’

[[[sobs]]] are always defending themselves from some OTHER enemies,
see ?
What did Reagan call the Minuteman missile, ?
The Peacemaker , no shit !
What did they call their bouncer in chief ?
Sec of DEFENCE no less.
————–
In fact, we know that as early as 1945, US kicked start its biowarfare program with that ‘treasure trove’ gifted from the unit731 war criminals, in exchange for their immunity from prosecution.
In 1997, DOO William Cohen warned darkly about

‘OTHERS engaging in nefarious proj such as ‘race specific bioweapon, HARRP, Ebola…..’

[Empire watch rule 1
BANDITS CRYING ROBBERY]
In the same year,
[[[They ]]] spelt it out boldly in the PNAC manifesto,

‘advanced form of race specific bioweapon can be transformed from the arena of terrorism into useful political tools’

Meaning ?
If [[[they]]] spray some nasty craps into your country, killing , maiming, sickening millions, destroying your livestock, messing up your lives, when people darent touch their loved ones, shaving off 40% of your GDP,….

This aint terrorism per se, its just some benign ‘political’ play,
Dont get so upset, honey !

But what did Empire watch rule 2 tell us,,…
‘When uncle sham cries wolf, run for YOUR life’
Sure enough, two years, 80 dead microbiologists later,
SARS hit the GREATER CHINA,…mainland, HK, TW, Singapore, SEA with sizable Chinese , ….
What about Toronto , aint them whitey ?
Take a good look ….all those people with mask look definitely ORIENTAL, mostly likely Chinese.
iF it looks like a Chinese, speaks like a Chinese……….
https://www.cuttingedge.org/SARS_Global_Map3.jpg
P.S.
According to Larry Romanoff, the victims of the current pandemic are all Chinese………..

Posted by: denk | Jan 27 2020 10:44 utc | 188

The current 4% case-fatality rate of the Coronavirus (which still may increase) is also not especially high.
The number of people infected seems to be growing by 20% per day. It takes 14-21 days between getting infected and dying (for those who die). I checked on my spreadsheet and that suggests that 10% of those infected eventually die. If the current published numbers are at all near the truth for those known to be infected and those who have died. It is certainly a lot higher than 4%. I hope I am wrong. 🙁
Patient zero was on December 01, 2019.

Posted by: Alfred (Cairns) | Jan 27 2020 11:01 utc | 189

Like I say,
[[[sobs]]] = CIA/MI6, period.
I try not to blame the people.
BUt when I take a quick look at the articles and comments at the internet now going viral,
including many at ‘alternate media’,
it make me wonder………
Are they simply ignorant, plain stupid, in denial, willfully obtuse or worse ?????

Posted by: denk | Jan 27 2020 11:07 utc | 190

Phil I think part of it can be that illustrative drawings and simulations and the like are used for emphasis and clarity in many scientific publications and then general news media or popular science reporting latch on to that and copy the style.
Science reporting in general is abysmal and for some good reasons considering just about anything being reported on took years of education and then easily decades of work building upon decades or centuries of previous work. It’s impossible to condense all that into something brief so all those years of slowly understanding a little bit more are left out. That’s like being given a billion piece puzzle box only containing a corner piece and one other piece and no picture anywhere of what the puzzle was meant to look like 🙂 It’s funny but no wonder anyone and everyone complains about this or that.
Another thing is that with more advanced microscopes (Wikipedia page talking a bit about the various more normal or common types) the amount of physics and mathematics involved in deriving images from the values given by the detectors (camera equivalents in a sense) often distracts from realizing what the method used is which is often something much simpler and easier to understand, and when that understanding is gained it makes it clearer that one is still talking about a kind of “photograph” only one made using different methods.
For example in something as exotic (at least to me) as atomic force microscopy it isn’t a given at all that people in general will connect it with their own sense of touch and that what the microscope is doing is essentially to “touch” its way all across an object and report the minute differences in what it feels, a bit like how one can sense the difference in height if one sticks a piece of tape on something flat or even and by sliding a fingertip across the edge of it can detect the small height difference.
Nothing wrong with skepticism. In addition outright disbelief or simply being wrong should also be more accepted or at least tolerated simply because the expansion of science and knowledge has been enormous and accelerating during the last two centuries and a lot of it isn’t intuitive at all or outright counter-intuitive and puzzling; no one at all has any chance of keeping up with all of it, certainly not in detail and probably not in general either.
Add to all of that the “curse of knowledge” where the better someone is at something the less easily they will be able to explain it to anyone who isn’t close to doing the same because they’re trapped by what is important to them in their own context and can’t easily remember what was important when they didn’t have that context and were starting out. Some people can be amazingly good at defying it but they’re the exceptions.
I think I’ve gotten a headache writing this comment lol I’m drifting into talking about huge challenges in science and education 😀
I probably didn’t address things you brought up but I need to stop.

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Jan 27 2020 11:08 utc | 191

Wow,I didn’t expect B to shit the bed on this one. Why are you assuming the Chinese narrative about the outbreak is true? 56 million people were quarantined, 8 hour wait times at hospitals lined wall to wall with people, people passing out all over, dying doctors, overworked medical staff afraid to leave their hazmat suits, all because a few people have the sniffles?
The idea that this is a pathogen that escaped (incompetence or otherwise) is much more sound than the bat soup deflection cast immediately as this began last week. There was a level 4 biohazard research facility 9 and 20 miles from the hypothesized initial ground zero. Could have been someone stopping for lunch.
That this line of thinking is being tainted as neocon propaganda is ridiculously reductive and dismissive.

Posted by: Boldizar | Jan 27 2020 11:10 utc | 192

I wish I could disagree with more of what Denk writes but I simply can’t, as someone who loves both Japan and China (and Korea) the darkest most vile chapters of WWII are immensely sad and horrifying in so many different ways it is hard to put into words.
However I feel confident in disagreeing on something else entirely: Twitter or “social media” is not representative of popular opinion or any majority of people anywhere, nor does it have any reputation for being thoughtful or sensible.

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Jan 27 2020 11:55 utc | 193

It is my personal obsession to point out the most conspicuous paid State Department/Atlantic Council/CIA trolls when they invariably rear their vile, pimply little heads, so I must point out one of the most obvious new ones in this thread, DrM @154.
First note the intro sentence in which the obvious imperial spox attempts to establish that it is a “regular reader” and tries to imply that it is in general agreement with the content that is provided by our host. That is the sugar coating that these Internet warriors for the empire are trained to apply to their ideological cyanide to make it easier for the unsuspecting to swallow.
Next note the list of FUD points neatly organized, but pay close attention to the details. Many of these points actually contain a kernel of truth, which is a necessity for a good lie.
1. “I have read reports this is in fact a bio-weapon that was released (accidentally or otherwise). Wuhan has a level 4 facility at the epicenter of the infection. Coincidence?”
Of course it is not a coincidence. If (more likely “when”) the Chinese amass the evidence to prove that the virus is manufactured, the CIA will need a backup narrative to deflect blame. Projecting American establishment scumminess on their imagined adversaries comes naturally to these tools of empire, so their promoting the narrative that the Chinese, intentionally or otherwise, did this to themselves is to be expected.
So if you were some Harvard Skull and Bones types with warped senses of humor, where would YOU choose to release the virus other than near your imagined “adversaries'” top infectious diseases lab?
2. “Reports are the virus was stolen from a bio-weapons lab in Canada.”
This is interesting, as it suggests that evidence will come out soon that the artificial virus was manufactured at one of the CIA’s dark site/contractor facilities in Canada. The FUDsters need to plant the suggestion that it was “stolen” before that evidence comes out to throw some more misdirection into the mix.
3. “The problem w/ SARS is it killed too quickly… This new virus has a 10-14 day incubation period, meaning…”
Meaning “…we learned from our mistakes. We did a better job creating this new virus”
Followed by more nonsense that is too boringly FUD boilerplate to bother discussing.
I think the Chinese are likely to suss this one out quickly, and proof will be available soon that the virus was manufactured. This is the reason for the large numbers of professional troll posts trying to plant the narrative that it was manufactured by the Chinese themselves to get that narrative in first. Otherwise the natural assumption people will have is that the virus was made by some other country that has declared itself China’s enemy… who could that be?
Why do I think the Chinese will figure this one out? DNA is just data once the genes are sequenced. China has more “Big Data” data scientists these days than the rest of the world combined. You just know that there are many thousands of Chinese data scientists right now mining that freshly sequenced genetic data for whatever they can find in it. Initial reports were that the virus’ genetic material was 70% familiar stuff. That means it is 30% novel stuff. That is a lot. Viruses mutate quickly, but not that quickly. That means that this novel genetic material (for a coronavirus) was spliced in from other sources. It shouldn’t be long before the Chinese track down those other sources, and that is likely to be what leads to the above-mentioned Canadian bio-weapons lab.
I ask one more time: How is it that western corporate “Operation Mockingbird” mass media was hyping this viral outbreak when there was only a handful of suspected cases and NO fatalities yet? Unless the mass media’s handlers at Langley sent out the directive to get the jump on the story, how would they have known it was anything other just a batch of bad fish?

Posted by: William Gruff | Jan 27 2020 12:19 utc | 194

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Jan 27 2020 11:08 utc | 189

Phil I think part of it can be that illustrative drawings and simulations and the like are used for emphasis and clarity in many scientific publications and then general news media or popular science reporting latch on to that and copy the style.

You are right, I am asking for too much, and I am frustrated that I don’t understand the nature, the purpose of microbes clearly. Maybe I am projecting this ignorance of mine onto the science community that does such excellent work. Except the bio-weapons scientists, of course. Although even there I have my doubts. When talking about ABC warfare, I always found A and C relevant. The B, the biological weapon, I never really considered powerful enough or even working. I might be wrong. But I hope I’m right.
Sorry about the headache I provoked. This was not my intention. And I realise that my posts about microbes were ill formulated. My fault. I was forced to answer, which accumulated to further answers from others, etc. Sorry again, I would like to apologise to all.

Posted by: Phil | Jan 27 2020 12:46 utc | 195

From Vietnam, dated 23 January 2020:
The representatives of Cho Ray Hospital confirmed that two Chinese men, Li Ding, born in 1954 and his son Li Zichao, born in 1992 who were tested positive for the coronavirus. The father and son have been diagnosed with the mysterious virus that broke out in Chinese city of Wuhan last month.
The father was hospitalised on Jan 17 with a high fever, days before his son showed symptoms, health officials said.
These cases were confirmed as the coronavirus that has sickened close to 582 people in China and others in Thailand, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea and the U.S.
“The patients have shown signs of good recovery, (their) fever has reduced and they can eat now,” Doctor
Nguyen Ngoc Sang said Thursday at a meeting at Ho Chi Minh City’s Cho Ray hospital.
– source: https://vietnaminsider.vn/wuhan-coronavirus-cases-confirmed-in-vietnams-ho-chi-minh-city/

Posted by: Hope | Jan 27 2020 13:27 utc | 196

They stress they’re not trying to be alarmists…
I used to subscribe to serpentza, though he did a lot of clickbait stuff there were some interesting insights into China that were reasonably accurate, still the guy impressed me as a somewhat slimy opportunist, in keeping with his chosen moniker. For example, I would not have approached him with a business deal, he always seemed a bit ‘off’. The strangeparts guy Scott, on the other hand, seems like a straight shooter.
serpenza suddenly started doing very anti-China stuff and moved to the US (how did he get permission that fast, as a South African?). I’m very suspicious he (and maybe his buddy) got a well-paid deal to distribute virulent anti-China propaganda over his youtube channel. The change from him was very distinct, and I go to China frequently and know there has not been so great a change there. There has been a LOT of anti-China propaganda on social media in recent months and I have to think it’s being coordinated and is deliberate.

Posted by: bill | Jan 27 2020 14:04 utc | 197

Peter AU1 @180: India is an interesting case, I can’t say I’ve looked into it, but I also don’t remember any particular breakouts there, but they do indeed crop up regularly and globally:
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/en/

Posted by: Bemildred | Jan 27 2020 14:25 utc | 198

Yes there is another virus making the rounds. b wrote, No need to Panic
A helpful reminder: because I suspect this novel coronavirus 2019 will also spawn another $$multi-billion windfall for the usual suspects.
H.L. Mencken observed

[.]The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety)[.]

Remember the 2009 H1N1 Swine Flu Pandemic: Manipulating the Data to Justify a Worldwide Public Health Emergency

By. Prof Michel Chossudovsky, Global Research.ca, January 25, 2020
In the course of the last week, the World Health Organization (WHO) has pointed to a possible Global Public Health crisis in relation to China’s novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) categorized as a viral pneumonia. The virus outbreak is centred in the city of Wuhan, a city in Eastern China with a population in excess of 11 million.
At the time of writing, the WHO has not declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC). On 22 January, the members of the WHO Emergency Committee “expressed divergent views on whether this event constitutes a PHEIC or not”. A far-reaching decision of the WHO is expected.
What is the nature of a Worldwide Public Health Emergency under WHO auspices?
The following article recalls the unusual circumstances of the April 2009 H1N1 Swine Flu Pandemic.
An atmosphere of fear and intimidation prevailed. The data was manipulated.
Based on incomplete and scanty data, the WHO nonetheless predicted with authority that: “as many as 2 billion people could become infected over the next two years — nearly one-third of the world population.” (World Health Organization as reported by the Western media, July 2009).
It was a multibillion bonanza for Big Pharma supported by the WHO’s Director-General Margaret Chan.
In June 2009, Margaret Chan made the following statement:
“On the basis of … expert assessments of the evidence, the scientific criteria for an influenza pandemic have been met. I have therefore decided to raise the level of influenza pandemic alert from Phase 5 to Phase 6. The world is now at the start of the 2009 influenza pandemic. … Margaret Chan, Director-General, World Health Organization (WHO), Press Briefing 11 June 2009)
What “expert assessments”?
In a subsequent statement she confirmed that:
“Vaccine makers could produce 4.9 billion pandemic flu shots per year in the best-case scenario”,Margaret Chan, Director-General, World Health Organization (WHO), quoted by Reuters, 21 July 2009)
[.]
There was no pandemic affecting 2 billion people…
Millions of doses of swine flu vaccine had been ordered by national governments from Big Pharma. Millions of vaccine doses were subsequently destroyed:[.]

Posted by: Likklemore | Jan 27 2020 14:44 utc | 200