Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
January 25, 2020

The Coronavirus - No Need To Panic


Bring Out Your Dead by beq
bigger - uncropped

I had a little bird,
Its name was Enza.
I opened the window,
And in-flu-enza.
The Influenza Pandemic of 1918

The picture and the rhyme are from a fifteen year old Moon of Alabama post headlined Bring Out Your Dead. Beq's title for her picture is from a medieval Mounty Pyton sketch (vid) around the 'black death'. We no longer have to fear the plague but every once a while a new virus catches up with humanity.

China is stepping up efforts to stop the spread of a the novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV:

Chinese President Xi Jinping has held a special government meeting on the Lunar New Year public holiday to warn that the spread of a deadly new virus is "accelerating".

The country is facing a "grave situation" Mr Xi told senior officials, according to state television.

The coronavirus has killed at least 41 people and infected almost 1,300 since its discovery in the city of Wuhan.

Travel restrictions have already hit several affected cities.

And from Sunday, private vehicles will be banned from the central districts of Wuhan, the source of the outbreak.
...
Across mainland China, travellers are having their temperatures checked for signs of fever, and train stations have been shut in several cities.

An infected person transmits the virus to X healthy persons. In an epidemic the factor X is greater than 1. For the novel coronavirus the initial factor, also known as R0 or R naught, is 1.4-2.5 which is not especially high.

Ferris Jabr @ferrisjabr - 6:58 UTC · Jan 25, 2020

The basic reproduction number (R0) is the average number of secondary infections generated by one infected person in a totally susceptible population #2019nCoV
...
The claim that "we are now faced with the most virulent virus epidemic the world has ever seen" and that the new coronavirus is 8x as infectious as SARS is completely untrue. Even if the R0 were 3.8 that would be nowhere near a record.

Here is some context w/ a range of R0s:


bigger

As long as the R0 is over 1 the infection will spread further as each infected person will infect multiple healthy ones who again will infect others. To stop an epidemic R0 has to be brought to under 1. Key is to lower the number of healthy persons an infected person comes into contact with. In 2002-2003 the SARS epidemic started out with an R0 of about 3 and ended with an R0 of 0.4. This was achieved by isolating the sick and, as not all infected persons are immediately recognized, also by lowering the number of contacts people have in their daily life.

China is now rapidly doing both.

The fatality rate of the novel coronavirus is also no reason to panic.

Dr. Melvin Sanicas @Vaccinologist - 22:11 UTC · Jan 23, 2020

Preliminary R0 (number showing how contagious / transmissible a pathogen is) for #Wuhan #nCoV2019 novel #coronavirus: 1.4-2.5. Here are the figures for other diseases #SARSvirus #MERS & their case-fatality rates to put things in perspective


bigger

The current  4% case-fatality rate of the coronavirus (which still may increase) is also not especially high. The Spanish Flu pandemic, which began in the U.S., had a fatality rate of about 10%. It was unusual in that it killed mostly young adults. The novel coronavirus seems to be quite usual in that it mostly kills people who are already weakened by other circumstances. The infection is then often the 'last drop in the bucket' that kills a person who already had a medical condition.

People fond of conspiracy theories will speculate that the coronoavirus was spread intentionally or escaped from some laboratory. The neo-conservatives in the U.S. have played with that idea.

Advanced forms of biological warfare that can “target” specific genotypes may transform biological warfare from the realm of terror to a politically useful tool.
"Rebuilding America's Defenses" - The September 2000 PNAC Report

But from a scientific perspective that makes little sense. There is no 'race gene' that could be used to safely discriminate between people of a certain heritage and others.

The novel coronavirus is likely a variant of some animal virus that crossed over to a human host. This probably happens way more often than we recognize.

Posted by b on January 25, 2020 at 17:30 UTC | Permalink

Comments
next page »

Also bear in mind that those fatality percentages are from WHO and world wide. IIRC, the CDC (who I trust in general as far as I can throw a fridge) has stated that no one in the USA had died of measles for over 10 years. In this particular case, I believe that they are telling the truth about this hysterically lethal disease. That's why when I was a kid, mothers would have measles parties just to get it over with at a convenient time and give their kids life long immunity (as opposed to autism and maybe temporary immunity today).

Posted by: el gallinazo | Jan 25 2020 17:51 utc | 1

The new coronavirus doesn't seem to have the death rate of SARS or MERS yet.
We shall see-----
Didn't take these seriously until SARS.

Posted by: Duncan Idaho | Jan 25 2020 17:52 utc | 2

Thanks b. There is so much hype. Last evening, on a credible website, I read of an alleged communication from someone who knows someone who knows someone in Wuhan that already, 10,000 have died, people dropping like mosquitoes caught in Vector control. And NO, I will not provide the link.

It's all hype: aided by Reuters News. You would think in 7 cities with up to 46 million under quarantine the death toll would be in the 100s. LINK
Xi says China faces 'grave situation' as virus toll hits 41

Factbox: The latest on the coronavirus spreading in China and beyond
U.S. to evacuate its citizens from Wuhan, China: WSJ
Coronavirus worries have surgical masks flying off shelves in New York's Chinatown
Virus anxieties cast shadow over Year of the Rat festivities


UK is tracking 2,000

Periodically, society needs a virus scare to lay the table for another of Big Pharma's new vaccines. Past due to invoke the 11th Commandment.

Posted by: Likklemore | Jan 25 2020 18:01 utc | 3

Assessment for the impact on the Chinese economy?

Posted by: Passer by | Jan 25 2020 18:01 utc | 4

I wonder what role timing (Chinese New Year) plays. Person-to-person contact and travel are enhanced during CNY. Is CNY the worst time to fight the spread?

Posted by: fundas | Jan 25 2020 18:01 utc | 5

More info for the interested:
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2759815

Posted by: Duncan Idaho | Jan 25 2020 18:02 utc | 6

Damn.....i was hoping this was it....humanity finally hits the wall....its existence erased from the surface of the planet....but NO....tensions will continue to escalate.....insanity will continue to reign in the various halls of government...until somewhere a button is pushed or a switch is flipped....not by a lowly virus.....but by the hand of man....

Posted by: michael Houston | Jan 25 2020 18:06 utc | 7

It stand to reason that airbone droplets are a less effective infectant than airborne droplets. The pieces of bone weight them down so they disperse less.

But if it is not a misspelling, I do not understand completely who coefficient larger than 1 lead to an end of an epidemic. Perhaps the coefficient reflects the number of contacts of an infected person with the susceptible part of the population, small coefficient tells that this subpopulation is not so big. Once enough of the susceptible people go through the disease and build antibodies (or succumb in a minority of cases), the coefficient drops below 1.

Asian habit to wear masks can also decrease the number of infections produced by a person who is infectious and asymptomatic.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Jan 25 2020 18:13 utc | 8

Thanks for this balanced presentation. I have been looking for one.

Just my 'back of the envelope' (so to speak) calculations were not justifying the hysterical headlines.

I was surprise to see even Zerohedge, as balanced a web site as there is, was pushing the hysteria. This is not to imply that the virus is not a very important issue. Rather, to say that it is so important that it must be presented with factual (quantitative) analysis and valid logical inferences.

Posted by: Tom Verso | Jan 25 2020 18:17 utc | 9

Solomon over at SNAFU has gone into complete hysteria over this. He is doing the impossible of making the MSM look sane.

Posted by: BraveNewWorld | Jan 25 2020 18:25 utc | 10

China is more susceptible to epidemics because it has more people and more animals, therefore more random mutations on viruses and bacteria.

SARS, for example happened because the virus came from the duck and mutated to infect chicken, which then mutated to infect humans. Since China has a lot of ducks (they are endemic of China), a lot of chicken and a lot of humans, sheer numbers ensured it was there, and not somewhere else, where SARS was born.

Posted by: vk | Jan 25 2020 18:27 utc | 11

Here's a few facts (?) -

In 2015, a patent was filed by The Pirbright Institute for the live, attenuated coronavirus. The application claims that the new virus could be used to create a vaccine for treating or preventing respiratory viruses. The patent was awarded in 2018.

The Pirbright Institute is currently funded by the UK Department for Environment, Food, and Rural Affairs, the WHO, and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

In November of 2019, collaborating with the World Economic Forum, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation hosted “Event 201” where they ran a simulation of a coronavirus pandemic.

Posted by: Realist | Jan 25 2020 18:37 utc | 12

As always, USA behind everything wrong.
Why dont you guys go to china if you think its so safe

Posted by: Takeiteasy | Jan 25 2020 18:38 utc | 13

16,000 people have died from the flu in the US during the current flu season. Yet no one seems concerned by that number (which isn't unusual) since it's not trumpeted in the news, nor does it originate in China.

Posted by: worldblee | Jan 25 2020 18:41 utc | 14

It's hard to estimate the lethality of a new disease. Here's one current statistic: 1438 confirmed cases, and 42 dead. So, 2.9% CFR (Case Fatality Rate)? Well, no, because only 39 confirmed cases have recovered. The rest are To Be Determined; at this point, the odds look 50/50 between death and recovery.

Here's another figure: of the first 41 confirmed cases, 15% died. So, 15% CFR? Probably not, because only the most serious cases would have gotten medical attention early in the outbreak.

So, somewhere between 3 and 15% Maybe, but viruses mutate, evolving to spread faster, but kill less (because a dead host doesn't spread the virus). But when the population density is high, a virus can kill quickly and still spread effectively.

Then, the fact that a 62-year old MD has died, after a week in hospital care, is very worrisome, because I assume that he'd get the best care available (unlike the average resident).

Lungs damaged by chronic air pollution might be more susceptible to pneumonia, I suppose.

Posted by: Lathechuck | Jan 25 2020 18:43 utc | 16

@ Realist 12

Yes, the Pirbright Institute holds many Patents on viruses used to treat diseases. Just wondering if they will go after this strain, of Wuhan origin, to protect their named Coronavirus Patent # 10,130,701

Posted by: Likklemore | Jan 25 2020 18:44 utc | 17

The "racialization" can be somewhat implemented by the bio-terrorists carefully placing their latest "pandemic" pathogen in a specific location. Cultural choices, like eating bats or snakes which happen to be more likely to POTENTIALLY be species to naturally develop the new strain would provide adequate cover. Like Ebola, Zika, the latest "swine" flu and even bird flu, springing up where the locals are more exposed to the relevant species than Western populations.

Pandemics on the scale of the Spanish flu or even the Black Plague are increasingly less likely as humans increasingly travel internationally, sharing low-level transfers of the wide variety of local pathogens across the globe. Think micro-dosing of similar-variants of pathogens, distributed between airline passengers, airport workers and friends/relatives/casual-contacts of passengers. Notice how in the recent past the "pandemics" quickly dies out when they hit large cities with well-traveled populations. If there was no travel-related resistances happening, a "pandemic" should spike exponentially upon reaching major population centres... that has not happened, and the actions taken by gov'ts have not been proven to be more than a minor deterrent to the spread.

This is not new information. The Spanish flu was so deadly and virulent because the literal millions of WW1 soldiers leaving the battlefront brought it home to very localized, insular and therefore low-resistance populations. I can't locate the link right now, but there was a British warship where the crew came down with the Spanish flu, but very few died... because that ship's crew had been traveling the world and obviously had acquired some resistance from visiting various locations.

During the SARS scare, the Canadian gov't sent body bags to remote northern settlements as they knew the population would have little resistance. Fortunately the need for the body bags never materialized, but the reality of sending the bags shows how much is known by gov'ts and medical organizations.

I don't think this coronavirus variant "escaped" from the Wuhan bio-research facility, and until the full and definitive genetic analysis is done (remember the post 9/11 anthrax "attacks"?) the public jury on where this strain originated needs to remain in deliberation.


Posted by: A P | Jan 25 2020 18:50 utc | 18

Oz's Chief Medical Officer said this week that China is to be commended for its cooperation, openness, and prompt implementation of extreme quarantine measures. The WHO has said something similar.
The Sleazy Poms, naturally, are finding fault with everything China has done...
France has found 3 suspected cases and has advised ppl who think they may be infected to stay at home, don't go to a clinic or anywhere else, and call for assistance - which seems surprisingly sensible.

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Jan 25 2020 18:51 utc | 19

I read somewhere that the military is in fact researching "race genes" and it is on the way to being more than just in science -fiction.

You do remember Killary taking all the DNA ,saliva and fingerprints off cups and spoons used by world leaders at UN events don't you? Why did she do that? She loves "Dexter"? Is that why Putin brings his own teacups?

Posted by: Inoticed | Jan 25 2020 18:53 utc | 20

El gallinazo @1. That is nonsense! The issue with measles is not the fatality rate but rather the terrible complications. See the recent Science News feature on its effects on the immune system.

Posted by: Catb | Jan 25 2020 18:53 utc | 21

@14 A few years ago I began to question the high number of flu deaths in the US (tens of thousands)as compared to the child deaths of around 350. I did an investigation of state Health Department statistics and found that in all states that I looked into (20) they counted all pneumonia deaths as part of the flu death number. I found that to be totally disingenuous and more than likely a scare-pitch to sell vaccines.

Posted by: Linda Amick | Jan 25 2020 18:56 utc | 22

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lk5XkhUKMDM

A somewhat lengthy, talkative video from two, Western English speakers who have lived in China for years and are married to Chinese. I’ve occasionally watched them over the past few years.

They stress they're not trying to be alarmists...

Here’s what they have to say in summary:

1. The Chinese central government ignored and even, possibly, added to the initial contagion of the virus. In trying to lessen any alarm, the Central government (or local, I forget) organized large banquets which obviously brought thousands together needlessly.

2. Such banquets are ubiquitous around this time of the Chinese New Year.

3. Everyone’s traveling home during the New Year. I didn’t know this factoid, but they call the Chinese New Year the greatest, annual human migration on the planet.

4. Then there’s the wet meat markets. They say even Shenzhen, in the very wealthiest parts, are open, unrefrigerated, wet meat markets. No soap in Chinese bathrooms. The terrible problem of the Chinese and their ‘spitting’ (old Chinese medicinal tales of getting rid of bad phlegm, etc.) The hygiene is, how shall we say it, not up to any European standard by any stretch.

5. The Central Government is doing everything to ‘paper over the cracks’. They’re even dragging out ‘anti-rumor’ laws to quell any agitation against their beloved ’social harmony’. Necessary medical garb is in low, if any, supply, etc.

I don’t think these two are being alarmists. Basically they describe the Chinese government’s reaction, central and local, as, pardon my language, clusterfucks.

Just an alternative perspective.

Posted by: W Baker | Jan 25 2020 18:59 utc | 23

I'll also drop in that colloidal silver has been shown to be an effective antibiotic against nearly all known viruses, bacteria and fungal infections. Can be used for external application (have it in a pocket/purse-sized spray bottle instead of alcohol/chemical concoctions of dubious effectiveness) and CAREFULLY taken internally.

Protect yourself and your family, the gov't and Big Parma/medical won't.

Posted by: A P | Jan 25 2020 19:00 utc | 24

Great summary B.

Medical crisis:
Admiration and respect to China which seems to do everything reasonable.

Biological warfare:
I am not a virologist. Aside from the ethics of why one shouldn't do anything like weaponizing illnesses any idea of "targeted" weaponizing of cold and flu viruses seem like a suicidally bad idea since they mutate so easily and rapidly (the reason why one can get a new variant of an "old strain" of cold and flu every year) that the "targeting" is unlikely to survive or survive in the way intended.

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Jan 25 2020 19:06 utc | 25

The issue with measles is not the fatality rate but rather the terrible complications.

Yep-
And the wiping out of past immunological protection.
One is left almost defenseless.
The death rate prior to immunization is astounding.

Posted by: Duncan Idaho | Jan 25 2020 19:08 utc | 26

If anyone would like to track the number of cases in near real time there is the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-NCoV) Global Cases live website

Posted by: TJ | Jan 25 2020 19:12 utc | 27

Posted by: el gallinazo | Jan 25 2020 17:51 utc | 1
I to remember the measel parties our mothers had when some of the kids got it, i got them that exact way and so did my sister...

Posted by: Per/Norway | Jan 25 2020 19:17 utc | 28

"I wonder what role timing (Chinese New Year) plays. Person-to-person contact and travel are enhanced during CNY. Is CNY the worst time to fight the spread?"

Posted by: fundas | Jan 25 2020 18:01 utc | 5

It plays a major role, the biggest mass movement of people on this earth...
DDGO or perhaps even g00gle will be your friend in this research,, Cny is bigger then djt`s ego and million upon million of people is traveling home to their villages from the cities around China..

Posted by: Per/Norway | Jan 25 2020 19:22 utc | 29

Lathechuck thank you for illustrating that outside of pure mathematics (where everything exists in a sort-of-separate abstract reality or dimension) statistics only really work (or make any real sense) afterwards and not before whatever they are applied to.

Another great examples is the US NASA shuttle safety statistics; only after the conclusion of that program could one truly say what the statistics were. Everything before that point was guessing and propaganda and —perhaps— wishing, or straight up misapplication/abuse of mathematics.

With viruses statistics are even worse (until "after the fact") because any virus can change each time its RNA or DNA is copied and any change can both increase or decrease their virulence by a little or a lot, or stay the same. A constantly moving target.

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Jan 25 2020 19:38 utc | 30

It's a hoax.
Jim Stone has pointed out that it's winter in China now while photos of people collapsing show trees in full foliage.
Plus the infection is supposed to start in Wuhan where 5G has been rolled out
http://82.221.129.208/.vt0.html

Don't get excited over this.
Just observe how they are working overtime top scare us stupid.
Go forth and debunk this 'pandemic' on the internet

Posted by: John Doe | Jan 25 2020 19:41 utc | 31

all states that I looked into (20) they counted all pneumonia deaths as part of the flu death number. I found that to be totally disingenuous and more than likely a scare-pitch to sell vaccines.

Posted by: Linda Amick | Jan 25 2020 18:56 utc | 22

Perhaps not totally disingenuous, because bacterial pneumonia is a typical complication of a viral infection. But the unidentified viral infection could be "common cold". Is coronavirus a common cold virus, i.e. giving mild symptoms in most cases?

As slightly related topic, when I learned history in school, Black Death was an unimportant topic. History being focus on national history, there was some mentioned that many countries were affected by something. But in Polish history, the period was the earlier Golden Age. There was no epidemic, unification proceeded, the prosperity increased, the kingdom incorporated the prosperous Western Ukraine (Red Rus). There are different conjectures why epidemic reach countries around Poland and Russia but not those countries. On conjecture was that building good roads was unnecessary, so the roads were awful. Instead, during winters the roads were smooth, no mud or potholes, and trading goods could be hauled efficiently by sleds. Thus rats had hard time to spread within the trade goods, hitching rides would kill them from hypothermia.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Jan 25 2020 19:42 utc | 32

Sorry typo.Meant to write:
To scare us stupid


Posted by: John Doe | Jan 25 2020 19:44 utc | 33

Protect yourself and your family, the gov't and Big Parma/medical won't.

Posted by: A P | Jan 25 2020 19:00 utc | 24

The duchy of Parma was rather smallish, if I recall. I just checked, yes, it did not change size while it lasted, BUT, was it very valuable? "In 1735 Parma was ceded to Emperor Charles VI in exchange for the Two Sicilies." Two Sicilies meant the island, and Italy south of Rome. But no parmesan....

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Jan 25 2020 19:53 utc | 34

Dr. Eric Fiegl-Ding, an epidemiologist, has Wuhan coronavirus Twitter threads here: https://twitter.com/drericding The latest estimate of reproductive rate from Imperial College in London is 2.6, with the range of uncertainty being 1.5 to 3.5 https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news--wuhan-coronavirus/ Dr. Fiegl-Ding seems very concerned about the prospect for a pandemic, given that people can be contagious while asymptomatic, and given the reproductive rate.

Posted by: Karl Boyken | Jan 25 2020 19:54 utc | 35

Wuhan has a high security Microbiology Laboratory.

There was cooperation with Canadian laboratories which was stopped because of politics.

If it is an escaped virus, it may have all kinds of strange features.

Posted by: somebody | Jan 25 2020 20:11 utc | 36

Those of us who conidered the hype, knowing about the criticisms levied against China for its handling of the SARS outbreak way back when, the new virus' origination being a seafood market (harkening back to the Soviet smallpox-plankton problem) weren't envisioning a fatal pandemic (early days and Wuhan has millions in its boundaries, so, numbers point to less-than-a-bad flu) were being "conspiracy theorists" inasmuch as this virus and its accompanying media blitz is yet another "opportunity" to damage both China's reputation and economy. Given U.S. rhetoric, particularly under Trump, about China, don't blame us for wondering (wondering, not concluding) if this virus is far from a natural mutation. The only good thing about this is that, unlike U.S.-backed democratic protests", this will not cost (at least not yet) thousands of deaths and walking wounded nor make many more homeless. As for the possibility that it's the result of an "industrial accident" (another commenter in the open thread blog noted some bio-hazard facilities; Wuhan, being a major industral center, is also home to several pharmaceutical facilities; so, Theoretically, even OTC researchers could be another source) isn't so far-fetched since the seafood market origin hasn't been publicly explained - is the source goods sold there, or a human who was present there? There are very few virii caused in humans by fish. Could this be one? Yes - in which case it's not only a "novel" coronavirus, it's a novel seafood -related disease. If it was a human at the market, it will be interesting to hear that story (the first human to get this new virus).

Posted by: Zee | Jan 25 2020 20:24 utc | 37

The measles complications and death rate has been hyped as well. Deaths are very rare with adequate nutrition (particularly vitamin A) and sanitation. The death rate in the USA and other first world nations had been reduced to a minuscule amount before the vaccine was ever introduced. Some studies even show beneficial effects afterwards in those who had the measles.

https://childrenshealthdefense.org/news/measles-and-immune-amnesia-a-closer-look/
https://childrenshealthdefense.org/news/ny-times-deceives-about-the-odds-of-dying-from-measles-in-the-us/

As for the current coronavirus, its still too early to tell what's likely to happen, but given how many overhyped disease scares there have been in recent years, SARS, West Nile, Zika etc. I'm not worried too much just yet. I'm more worried about how the gov't and big pharma will use this to advance their agenda.

Posted by: Jimothy | Jan 25 2020 20:28 utc | 38

Karl Boyken@35

Thank you. You highlighted one of the greatest concerns with any pathogen, that is the period that infected individuals remain asymptomatic.
This seems to be missing from most discussions of this 2019-nCoV case, and profoundly affects the rate of spread. People who are really sick don't tend to move very far, whereas people who are asymptomatic can travel through multiple population centers during a two-week gestation period.

Posted by: Jon_in_AU | Jan 25 2020 20:36 utc | 39

Tom Verso #9

"Zero Hedge reliable" hahaha. So is a stopped clock, twice a day.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jan 25 2020 20:54 utc | 40

dozens of videos out there showing people unconcious or convulsing on the street. doubt all these videos are fake. if at least a third are real this is a real epidemic and the virus is highly contagious and once it kicks in on someone acts really really fast. also if 1/3 are true and given the quarantines on million it would show chineaw authorities have lost control. also see videos of empty grocery stores and people starting to fight for food.

hope its all a farce but my gut tells me even if theres some truth to this this is a big deal. not sure why other countries are not sounding the alarms

Posted by: comandante | Jan 25 2020 20:57 utc | 41

As a surgeon, I have to be an alarmist and those who think this is a hoax, please take your heads out of the sand. I have been in touch with a number of Chinese friends living in Chengdu, Nanjing and Beijing, and they are all alarmed. they tell me that even family gatherings are small and strictly with masks, as it is everywhere else.

There is a bit of flaw with the R0 theory. And R0 of 1.5 for Ebola, for instance, in an African village of sparse 5,000 people is one thing but when you have a population density such as anywhere in China, that R0 has to be factored in and it is more like 3-4, if not more.

Any such epidemic has to be treated with utmost seriousness and not taken lightly. Pictures of the nurses in Wuhan in full sealed hazmat suits in ICU taking care of patients is a testament to the gravity of this. This could easily become a nightmare scenario if Chinese government doesn’t contain it, especially in light of no vaccine coming around soon. WHO is inches away from declaring an emergency. But as usual, social, economic and political considerations keeps them from doing so, as yet. i hope I am wrong but expect more death tolls.

Posted by: Alpi | Jan 25 2020 21:11 utc | 42

@ uncle tungsten 40: Zero Hedge is merely an aggregator, and ya some of what shows up there is nonsense.

Do we throw out Newton's Rules of Motion because he was also an alchemist?

NO ONE is 100% correct all the time, but aside from the perennial pro/anti gold or Keynsians/Austrian/Chicago School wrangling, ZH posts real info that doesn't show up elsewhere. Requires the ability to think critically, but worth slogging through the detritus.

Posted by: A P | Jan 25 2020 21:19 utc | 43

OF COURSE this outbreak has to treated seriously, but this is no where near Spanish flu "pandemic" yet. If ever, see SARS, swine, bird, Zika, Ebola "pandemics" that weren't.

As a surgeon, Alpie must also know that US hospitals and the Big Pharma system is the 3rd largest source of preventable deaths. Many 1,000s dead every year, but we are supposed to scared sh**less by this outbreak?

I think the PTB are more concerned the public will figure out what a sham/scam far too much of the allopathic medical system is. Sure, I don't want an herbalist if I have a broken leg or need surgery, but there is much the allopathic system ignores, putting far too many patients in more danger than they need to be.

Posted by: A P | Jan 25 2020 21:31 utc | 44

Gonna call BS on mothers throwing measles parties. They were chicken pox parties.

Measles can be deadly. I had them way back shortly after the earth cooled.

Posted by: Bart Hansen | Jan 25 2020 21:32 utc | 45

Then of course there's modern transportation to move the virus from local to global literally overnight. There was a picture on Twitter I came close to linking a few days ago depicting commonplace cross-contamination by street vendors that could cause this sort of outbreak or others. When seeing such photos, it's a wonder this sort of problem doesn't occur more often.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 25 2020 21:44 utc | 46

Common measles is different from Rubella... but ya, parents didn't get frantic with common measles, I had them...

How many here have the smallpox vaccination scar? Polio was the big "new" vaccination back then.

Posted by: A P | Jan 25 2020 21:46 utc | 47

To karlof1 46: Air travel... we get in long aluminum tubes for hours at time with recycled, barely filtered air, trading low levels of pathogens... this gives some level of resistance to a wide variety of pathogens. The fact is just because someone gets exposed to a pathogen doesn't mean they will get sick from it. A properly functioning immune system will deal with such low-level of pathogens a majority of the time, otherwise we'd all be dead in a year.

Posted by: A P | Jan 25 2020 21:51 utc | 48

The beq painting is captivating. The analysis as well...I just hope we're getting moderately accurate information. Comparisons to the Spanish Flu should serve as a reminder that disinformation is the default assumption, given it arose in Kansas. I wish you all good health.

Posted by: Bruce | Jan 25 2020 21:52 utc | 49

Correct. According to an archeologist who studied disease transmission during first contact, Europeans and Native Americans, all the diseases that decimated tribes had domestic animal vectors.
First nations did not live closely with food species and no need to develope immunity to these diseases.

Posted by: Carol Davidek-Waller | Jan 25 2020 22:26 utc | 50

Perhaps this novel coronavirus isn't something that CIA goons were spraying around Wuhan a month ago. If that is not how this outbreak started, then how is it that the "Operation Mockingbird" mass media was treating this as a big deal weeks ago when there were only about 40 suspected cases and no fatalities yet? Before the Chinese medical scientists had even isolated and gene sequenced the virus?

Remember back in Cold War Ver1.0 when Voice of America would be announcing news of a train wreck in the USSR before the railroad operators themselves even knew the train had wrecked? Getting a jump on the news so they could claim that the Soviets were trying to cover it up? How was it that VoA knew of the train wrecks before the emergency crews even arrived at the scene? Easy! Their bosses in the CIA had arranged the train wreck (sabotaged signalling, switching or rails), so outfits like VoA and RFE/RL knew of them before they even happened.

Same thing here. Western Mockingbird mass media was screaming about an epidemic when there was still only forty cases so that they could get the jump on China's media and thus claim an attempted cover-up. Thus not only does the CIA get to kill a bunch of people (they really love doing that), but they get to leverage the deaths as a propaganda bludgeon against the empire's "enemies".

Or maybe CNN and the Bezos Post writers are clairvoyant? Is there any other explanation for how they got out ahead of this story?

Posted by: William Gruff | Jan 25 2020 22:28 utc | 51

https://off-guardian.org/2020/01/24/reality-check-coronavirus-fear-porn/

QUOTE:

REALITY CHECK: Coronavirus fear porn This is NOT a “global health emergency”, so why is everyone pretending otherwise?

…. As always with the mainstream media, it’s difficult to take anything for granted.

We don’t know the casualty numbers are accurate, China could be downplaying the threat to minimise panic.

We don’t know that the “lockdown” is as extensive as our media report, the press could be exaggerating to paint China as hysterical or autocratic.

We don’t even know for sure the disease exists at all, when you think about it.

As usual, absolute scepticism is required. It’s hard to say exactly what’s happening yet, but when 26 deaths makes international news…that means something is going on.

Posted by: John Doe | Jan 25 2020 22:32 utc | 52

7,000 Americans have died of influenza this season and that's not newsworthy? And 142,000 Americans died due to drug use in 2016, but that's not news, either

But 40 Chinese–all born during WWII, malnourished and carrying a heavy disease burden–have died from a novel virus and that's an epidemic?

China's Public Health Service is probably the most efficient on earth, which is why Chinese children will live longer, healthier lives than their American contemporaries. But that's not news.

Posted by: Godfree Roberts | Jan 25 2020 22:33 utc | 53

From away in the past...

Opinion
BUSH'S NOMINEE FOR U.N. ENVOY HAS ALREADY IRRITATED THE WORLD
By Robert James Parsons
San Francisco Chronicle
March 13, 2005

http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2005/03/13/ING8CBNC1N1.DTL

GENEVA – John Bolton, whom President Bush nominated last week as the new U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, is remembered here as the man President Bush sent, in the first year of his first administration, to kill the biological weapons treaty – a man who accomplished the task with a truculence that made a lasting, and very negative, impression.

It explains why so many observers of the international scene respond to his appointment with a shudder.

In 1995, there was a review conference for all the signatory countries of the 1975 biological weapons convention, which the United States had ratified. Its purpose was to assess the state of the matters dealt with in the treaty and discuss amendments to it in view of advances in biological research and in the world's political situation.

The conclusion of the conference was that the treaty needed an enforcement mechanism, for advances in research were reaching a point at which it would soon be possible to circumvent many of the text's provisions.

A drafting committee was set up to produce an additional protocol to give the text teeth. It was to meet several times each year and to have a final text ready for the review conference in November 2001.

By April 2001, the text was almost ready. The drafting committee was to hold one more three-week session, in July, to finalize the text, after which it would be available to the signatory country governments to study until the review conference.

The U.S. delegation to the April session gave little indication that anything had changed with the new administration. Work proceeded satisfactorily.

In July, the new Bush administration sent a new delegation, headed by Bolton. He declared the United States was withdrawing support for the enforcement protocol.
The United States already had the biggest bio weapons program in history, all in the name of defensive research.

However, this is an area where there is only a fine line between defensive and offensive, and most observers and scientists were convinced that if the United States had not yet crossed that line, it was about to do so.

As long as the United States refused to guarantee its compliance with the treaty, no other country could be expected to guarantee compliance either.

At the opening of the review conference, Bolton proposed that the protocol be, simply, dumped. In its place, he proposed bilateral treaties between the United States and every other country in the world, treaties that the United States would have the power to enforce, including the right to extradite and try in U.S. courts those suspected of engaging in bioweapons research.

In short, nothing would disturb the United States when it crossed the line into research for offensive bio weapons, but the United States was seeking for itself a system answerable to nobody that would empower it to bring its full force (including military, of course) to bear on any country attempting to compete with it in bio arms research.

The academic experts and nongovernmental organizations monitoring the drafting process and bioweapons research throughout the world were horrified and predicted that this would give rise to a frenzied arms race in biological weapons, probably with China in the lead.

A year later, China discovered SARS and tried to hide it. Three months later, terrified of the possibilities of its spreading throughout China and the world, it notified the World Health Organization, which immediately organized an emergency response on a scale unprecedented for any new illness. The WHO, too, was obviously terrified.

SARS was brought under control, but within the WHO, suppressed by pressure from a certain superpower, was an analysis of the SARS virus showing it to be an artificial creation designed to kill fast and furiously.

The conclusion was that it had somehow escaped from a military lab, which explained why, for three months, the Chinese authorities had hoped to counter the threat, ultimately in vain.
In the end, the Chinese were only too happy to have the analysis suppressed, and the superpower in question averted a major worldwide debate on the need for a bioweapons treaty with an enforcement mechanism.

Now, the bioweapons treaty is essentially a dead letter, the bio arms race is on, and many are quietly asking what the real origin of the bird flu might be.
The world is the poorer for the loss of the bio arms treaty and much less secure, but John Bolton did his work well. Now he can focus on the United Nations.

-- Robert James Parsons, a journalist based in Geneva, writes for the Geneva daily Le Courrier.

Posted by: RJPJR | Jan 25 2020 22:36 utc | 54

Nice analysis, however hospital routinely understate deaths due to a pathogen simply because if they don't test you for the pathogen they just log it as severe pneumonia. It take a Molecular pathology test to determine presence of pathogen, basically a DNA test looking for matching DNA sample of Corona Virus. Look for a general uptick in death by pneumonia for any reason, to set you Virulence factor. The numbers are higher just how high we do not know.

Posted by: robert | Jan 25 2020 23:11 utc | 55

re: vk@11 - the observation that China with its many fowl and many humans is a very likely origination point for this kind of thing.

It is my admittedly limited understanding that in addition to the fowl/human proximity, there is the large number of pigs that are also raised in close proximity (if not intermingled) to all those ducks and chickens. Pigs being so close metabolically (and genetically?) to humans, they provide an excellent site for whatever viruses are present to mutate into a form that is more easily transmitted to and among humans.

Posted by: NotBob | Jan 25 2020 23:11 utc | 56

A P #43

@ uncle tungsten 40: Zero Hedge is merely an aggregator, and ya some of what shows up there is nonsense.

Do we throw out Newton's Rules of Motion because he was also an alchemist?

... Requires the ability to think critically, but worth slogging through the detritus.

Fully agree and that is precisely what I do but to call it 'accurate' was what amused me and why I responded to another post.

I do my best to separate grain from chaff.

Back to the virus hysteria though I assume infection has a gestation period before it manifests as overt symptoms and on that premis I am sceptical of the link to the fish market etc. Bats might be more likely but I have no personal experience as I would never eat them as they are renowned vectors for some mighty unpleasant virus.

A far greater world affliction is the economic sanctions virus that seems to originate from the USA and supported by its 5 eyes parasites. Hundreds die every day due to the ban on medications and services arising from the economic constriction of their nations.

The price is NOT worth it and it is a crime against humanity, an assault on the rights of the child, a grievous attack on family life and values and moral degradation at its worst.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jan 25 2020 23:14 utc | 57

A P @48--

It's not the proximity in the aluminum tube; rather, it's the rapidity with which it can be spread geographically. The Black Death spread globally via sailing vessels, the jet planes of that era. Fortunately, humans discovered sanitation and microbiology; otherwise, there'd be far fewer of us.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 25 2020 23:23 utc | 58

uncle tungsten@56

Who wrote: "A far greater world affliction is the economic sanctions virus that seems to originate from the USA and supported by its 5 eyes parasites. Hundreds die every day due to the ban on medications and services arising from the economic constriction of their nations.

The price is NOT worth it and it is a crime against humanity, an assault on the rights of the child, a grievous attack on family life and values and moral degradation at its worst."

Thanks. Well said.
Estimated figures for Venezuela of 40,000 deaths from the illegal US sanctions (I can't recall if that was 'just 2019', or 'up to and including 2019') is a war-crime and should be punished severely.

Posted by: Jon_in_AU | Jan 25 2020 23:44 utc | 59

It is probably pointless to restate how quickly amerikans forget their missteps, scandals and outright rorts, but I'm going to do so.

It is as if amerikans have forgotten donald rumsfeld's SARS scam one of the most scandalous & ignoble acts of corruption that the amerikan empire foisted upon the developing world, because Gilead's charges for Oseltamivir (Tamiflu) for which they held sole patent and which John Negroponte (remember him? author of so many central american genocides who after his UN gig went on to screw over Iraq) foisted upon the constrained budgets of the developing nations of Africa, Asia, ME & Latin America, by insisting the UN pass a resolution demanding all members 'halt the SARS pandemic' by buying up sufficient tamiflu to 'protect' their entire population.

Rumsfeld was still a majority shareholder in Gilead when this happened and he made a killing (pun intended). The worst was yet to come as 3 years later when nations lacking in medicines to treat the diseases that were actually in their populations because the budget had been blown on Tamiflu were forced to call "same again" to Gilead despite having millions of unused doses gathering dust in warehouses because the unused stock had expired and the 'deal' with Gilead included an undertaking that unused expired stock must be replaced.

The scam here will be different, just as amerika hasn't ever had the balls to pull that WMD lie again, but they do false flag gas attacks to attempt other goals.

The media networks which beat up SARS are still in place, my best guess is that the current coronavirus is a naturally ocurring bug which amerika has chosen to game because it surfaced so close to Chinese New Year.

The gang of arseholes have likely been waiting for this opportunity and it is worth noting that nearly as soon as news of this bug was trumpeted - just days after China announced yet another year of 6% plus gdp growth far ahead of any 'western nation' (despite corporate media's claims that China was screwed -a repeat of what was said last year and the year before) TV & fishwrap news outlets with backing from the usual websites began banging on about the proximity of Chinese New Year and how that would make the epidemic 'unstoppable' as there was no way the Chinese govt could/would block movement. Yet that is exactly what the Chinese have done.

It is worth noting that the 2 cents a word here today gone tomorrow wannabe amerikan astroturfers are ignoring that as they post their ill-informed tosh - see fundas, W Baker etc.

There is no doubt we're all a bunch of slacktards at MoA, more and more often lately the alarm bell has rung at Bellinger or wherever signalling a new post and some never heard of before quickly posts a one liner totally lacking in fact to try and rubbish b's article.
Yeah yeah we should be more onto it but I betcha we won't so as long as everyone ignores post #1 as a matter of course it shouldn't matter - except for noobs who are the target such posts are aimed at.

I'm not concerned about this Coronavirus nonsense altho I imagine many are. The purpose of this exercise is most likely to shift mass perception a bit more anti-china by having the ignorati think "F+++ing China, are they trying to kill us all?", so the next attempt by the empire to encroach on China's borders will seem a little more acceptable to those devoted to keeping their family's above water for another week, who don't have the time for analysis.

Posted by: A User | Jan 25 2020 23:45 utc | 60

There's gold in them thar ills.

I recently developed a patent for a vaccine designed to eliminate the greed virus. Unfortunately for humanity the WHO and the CDC claimed the rights, squelched it and are reaping huge profits from it's antithesis.

Any time we get the latest/greatest viral "scare" can we cut to the chase and first get the details on the "victims" with a full analysis of the strength of their immune system.

Recommend these two articles:

Remember the 2009 H1N1 Swine Flu Pandemic: Manipulating the Data to Justify a Worldwide Public Health Emergency

https://www.globalresearch.ca/the-h1n1-swine-flu-pandemic-manipulating-the-data-to-justify-a-worldwide-public-health-emergency/14901

And:

China’s New Coronavirus: An Examination of the Facts

At the time of writing, Chinese health authorities announced 830 confirmed cases caused by this virus in 29 provincial-level regions in the country, resulting so far in 25 deaths primarily among the elderly who had been suffering serious prior medical conditions and were perhaps in weakened physical states.

https://www.globalresearch.ca/chinas-new-coronavirus-an-examination-of-the-facts/5701662

Posted by: Allen | Jan 25 2020 23:50 utc | 61

Canada Announces 'Presumptive' 1st Case of Deadly Coronavirus in Toronto

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/canada-1st-case-coronavirus-toronto-1.5440760

"Public health officials announce first diagosed case at Toronto's Sunnybrook Hospital..."

Posted by: John Gilberts | Jan 26 2020 0:05 utc | 62

Remember the AIDS virus "epidemic". Wherever the tests where carried...Aids break out. Antibody tests. But the thing is if you are positive you dont need any vaccination to produce the antibodies. Everything is fine ...you have already the immunreaction!

In the high time of Aids pneumonia was listed as an Aids desease.
I knew personally some people who made the Aids test and then after a month they had a pneumonia. One guy told me that there are not ten minutes passed while he was not thinking one time of having a deadly virus.

The big problem is the fear after tested positive. The fear is the immunosuppression NR.1 and it is changing the breathing leading toward dyspnea / breatlessness.

Its a devils circle and the big pharma knows exactly how to make the best profit out of it. Hundred billions where made with the aids hysteria. Big pharma and MSM are working hand in hand for a new plot to weaken the Chinese economy and making big pharma great again.

Just wondering how they test the coronarvirus? Are this antibody tests or do they just collect "related symptoms" like fewer? And then the horror begins.

Posted by: Adrian | Jan 26 2020 0:28 utc | 64

Posted by: Realist | Jan 25 2020 18:37 utc | 12
Some additional info on the Gates connections:
The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation is a major contributor to the organization that ran the simulation that says this new virus will be on plague proportions with 63 million dead. Although they used criteria that considered this virus far more dangerous than SARS when it is at best one fourth as virulent. Johns Hopkins Centre for Health Security ran the simulation and is a think tank (not affiliated with the medical center) that does policy research and gives policy recommendations to the United States government as well as the World Health Organization and the UN Biological Weapons Convention.
Gates is also linked to the organization that was awarded a recent PATENT on "a novel Coronavirus". Gates is an advocate of vaccines for everyone but oddly enough has refused to have his children or any members of his family receive a single vaccine.
This is the patent for the coronavirus, filed 2015, awarded in 2018 patents.justia.com/patent/10130701 This assignee of this patent is the government funded Pirbright Institute out of the UK, some of their major funders are the World Health Organization and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1219795721286586368.html
Lastly scientists close to the same people running the simulation which was actually a training exercise predicted in 2017 that the Chinese would probably have an incident at Wuhan. Why did they single out Wuhan? Other countries, like India and Georgia, also have BP4 research labs. The interviewee was Tim Trevan founder of CHROME Biosafety and Biosecurity Consulting in Damascus, Maryland, talking to Nature magazine (Maryland is the home of Fort Detrick, Maryland. Home of the U.S. Bioweapons program). https://www.nature.com/news/inside-the-chinese-lab-poised-to-study-world-s-most-dangerous-pathogens-1.21487

All of this reminds me of as A User | Jan 25 2020 23:45 utc | 59 pointed out of Rumsfeld and the SARS scam. Not buying into any of it at this point.

Posted by: frances | Jan 26 2020 0:31 utc | 65

@ Posted by: Alpi | Jan 25 2020 21:11 utc | 42

For sure. China - and humanity - doesn't have the divine right to exist and prosper, so there's always a chance a deadly virus wipes out either China and/or humanity any time, any place.

And yes, the R0 model doesn't describe reality with an 100% precision. It is just an approximation, a model so that the experts can act and try to catch up or be one step ahead of the curve.

With the information we have now, however, this is the (partial) conclusion we can reach.

And its understandable people from Hubei and Wuhan are worried, desperate and angry - they want to get out, and, if the virus is indeed deadly, the decision to quarantine hte region made it a giant coffin. I would be too if I were one of them. Doesn't change the fact the Central Government had to make a decision and live with the consequences in the name of the greater good.

Posted by: vk | Jan 26 2020 0:46 utc | 66

"As usual, absolute scepticism is required. It’s hard to say exactly what’s happening yet, but when 26 deaths makes international news…that means something is going on."

Posted by: John Doe | Jan 25 2020 22:32 utc | 52

The above is good advice..

Thanks b, and all..

Posted by: ben | Jan 26 2020 0:53 utc | 67

The most reliable source on the Coranavirus is the Chinese government via its website, www,ecns.cn

Posted by: Giap | Jan 26 2020 0:55 utc | 68

Let it run wild then everyone will have immunity. Its called herd immunity. This is a cold virus people and we have immune defenses. Because the human immune system is diverse among individuals, there will always be a subset of the population that succumbs to a new virus. The vast majority of people experience sub-clinical immune response to exposure or very minor symptoms and are not counted as infected. It is the cold/flu season after all. So the mortality rate is grossly overstated by a magnitude of 10-100.

As usual this is another overreaction by the technocrats, a form of health terrorism not unlike financial terrorism used to scare people and encourage them to surrender more freedom and give the technocrats more control (forced quarantine, forced vaccination). China is the perfect testing ground given its population and authoritarian control and one should not overlook that Chinas first bSL-4 biological lab was opened in 2015 in Wuhan to study among other things SARs like viruses.

Posted by: Pft | Jan 26 2020 1:10 utc | 69

Say ... does anyone know where I can obtain a suit like the one Alan Krumweide wore ?? Amazon ??
Ok ... you in the back row, standing all alone, wearing a surgical mask and gloves ... um .. Mr. uhh .. Soderbergh? .. do I have that right?
';]

Posted by: polecat | Jan 26 2020 1:12 utc | 70

Alpi @ 62
The fact that over 46 million in 8 cities are quarantined does trigger the smoke alarm. Earlier today, I read Larry Romanoff piece at globalresearch.ca. He quoted Dr. Horowitz who, 18 years ago, predicted, wrote books on emerging viruses becoming pandemics; lucky we are in waiting mode.

I am still in the camp of doubters on the origins in Wuhan.

FWIW
this non-practicing pathologist [in the U.S.] is alarmed. At link he gives a primer on viruses; advises caution to prepare.

Coronavirus Pandemic Event Now A Serious Risk

"This virus has all the statistical and virologic markers to be a true pandemic – the sort that the world has been luckily spared for many decades. But which nature and history shows us is always an inevitability.

According to the WHO’s guidance document on pandemics, this new coronavirus is already well on its way to being a full-blown pandemic:

Posted by: Likklemore | Jan 26 2020 1:12 utc | 71

After all .. when it's serious, you have to laugh, no?

Posted by: polecat | Jan 26 2020 1:15 utc | 72

R0 only tells us how many people will contract the disease. It says nothing about the resulting mortality.

Billions of people contract the common cold every year.

Posted by: lysias | Jan 26 2020 1:16 utc | 73

I was suspicious of SARS 2003 when it hit for purely political/economic reasons and my suspicions were later confirmed by its' engineered origin.

Swine flu H1N1 hype in Canada was huge. But the data was really weird - heavy infection rates in eastern Canada, benign response in western Canada for same age demographic. In addition there was a huge hole in the western data for those aged 45 to 75, almost zero infection...

Then I remembered a political cartoon in the early 80's lampooning the US & Canadian gov's for spraying flu virus on western Canadian cities, to monitor its' spread, in the early 60's

45 years later, H1N1 ran into resistance in the same places,

Gov's that spray virus OR release weaponized anthrax on their own population can be trusted to do the same to rivals.

Posted by: les7 | Jan 26 2020 1:28 utc | 74

The Chinese have genomically sequenced the coronavirus. It is
supposed to be a "novel" virus. How are they certain of this?
Have they compared the genetic sequence to known viruses like
the one that gates has the patent for, or to a database of bioweaponized
viruses?

Posted by: evilempire | Jan 26 2020 1:39 utc | 75

I mentioned in a previous thread that the real cause of the current hysteria is almost certainly:
(a) The standard media reaction to any new virus, i.e. it being the "end of times".
(b) China using the incident as a road test for possible future (far more serious) pandemics and/or viral warfare.
(c) The USA overhyping the issue because anything that damages Chain's global soft-power is good for the West.

It would be reasonable to assume that a mixture of all of the above are at play. In the case of (c) it would be interesting the see the results of a study that examined the spread of public hysteria related to the disease. Again, the symptoms displayed and the amount of people effected would not have been noticeable among the regular victims (presenting identical symptoms and with many mortalities among the elderly) of the regular flu season, had not their been significant public media hyping of the 'new' danger. While the West are happy to accept claims of small care of Russia bots and sock-puppets influencing their election they are likely to be less inclined to believe that a small number of Western psyops specialists (members of JTRIG perhaps) could drum up a localized panic inside China by driving social media reactions to this event.

Some have suggested a local bio-weapon incident due to the nearby secure lab but there is simply no reason, as yet, to consider that more likely than other plausible reasons. If the mortality transmission rate prove to be far higher than initially believed, then alternative hypotheses will warrant more scrutiny.

@Alpi #42

As a surgeon

Trust the science, not the scientist.
(also, remember that the science is not the same as a popular or majority view among scientists)

I have to be an alarmist

An alarmist is literally someone engaging in excessive or exaggerated overreaction.

those who think this is a hoax, please take your heads out of the sand

Thos who suspect it is being overblown have perfectly good reason for caution. Anyone who lived through the hysteria surrounding AIDS, H5N1, H1N1, SARS, MERS, Zica, etc. knows that initial panic is often unwarranted, whether it is stories from acquaintances in the region or pictures of nurses on hazmat suits. Overreaction to imagined crises can cause as much harm as a real incident.

Posted by: Glagaire | Jan 26 2020 2:00 utc | 76

I am in the camp of the doubters as well; many excellent skeptical comments above as well as b's skeptical article.

I would note that there is a ton of money to be had for pushing epidemic hysteria, in other words follow the money. I agree with a comment above that the reliability of CDC and WHO is about equal to any other source with us govt control and/or influence, zero or less than zero if that were possible.

I provide two links to support my skepticism:

https://off-guardian.org/2020/01/25/coronavirus-update-following-the-money/

https://blog.nomorefakenews.com/

Rappaport has debunked numerous epidemic hoaxes and for that reason does not get a lot of serious support from the MSM. However,I tend to at least consider what he has to say.

Posted by: Thomas Minnehan | Jan 26 2020 2:04 utc | 77

@10 BraveNewWorld

SNAFU's solomon is anti china racist who took in all sinophobic propaganda and accept them as fact , because he wallow in every kind of news that show chinese despair.

The fact that he is an african american and at the same time hold the right wing racist ideology suggest a confused man inside.

anything that negative to china as a nation and to chinese people will be put on display on SNAFU with no thinking allowed.

remember SNAFU's commenter site are full of astroturfers and hasbaras from all over the world.

Posted by: milomilo | Jan 26 2020 2:05 utc | 78

Can someone sneeze on George Soros already?

Posted by: Jezabeel | Jan 26 2020 2:20 utc | 79

"Bring out your dead" wasn't a Python invention. Those of us who went to school learned that during the plagues there were, indeed, workers who went round collecting the dead, and that "Bring out your dead" was the cry they used.

Posted by: RoHa | Jan 26 2020 2:48 utc | 80

Prior to January 17, according to this CDC press release, the CDC had motoring stations set up at airports...

After arrival, CDC Quarantine Station staff will conduct a health assessment of the sick traveler’s symptoms and possible exposures. If necessary, CDC staff will coordinate transport to a health care facility for medical evaluation and testing. CDC will update the airline about the results of the testing and any need for follow-up of exposed crew members or passengers.

I thought it strange that such a fast response would be organized over what at the time was a couple of reported deaths in China. Hysteria or fact? Can't answer that one but I doubt if China is going to run a mass quarantine that is certain to damage its image, citizens, economy, and its standing among its neighbors just to make some Western pharmaceutical companies happy.


Posted by: dltravers | Jan 26 2020 3:02 utc | 81

So [[[they]]] 'war game' a pandemic attack
three months ago......

https://coercioncode.com/2020/01/24/unbelievable-gates-foundation-predicted-65-million-deaths-via-coronavirus-3-months-ago/

Posted by: denk | Jan 26 2020 3:08 utc | 82

FWIW article published

February 2017 - Nature, the international weekly journal of science

Inside the Chinese lab poised to study world's most dangerous pathogens
Maximum-security biolab is part of plan to build network of BSL-4 facilities across China.


Wuhan, China

A laboratory in Wuhan is on the cusp of being cleared to work with the world’s most dangerous pathogens. The move is part of a plan to build between five and seven biosafety level-4 (BSL-4) labs across the Chinese mainland by 2025, and has generated much excitement, as well as some concerns.

[But] Chinese microbiologists are celebrating their entrance to the elite cadre empowered to wrestle with the world’s greatest biological threats.

“It will offer more opportunities for Chinese researchers, and our contribution on the BSL‑4-level pathogens will benefit the world,” says George Gao, director of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Key Laboratory of Pathogenic Microbiology and Immunology in Beijing. There are already two BSL-4 labs in Taiwan, but the National Bio-safety Laboratory, Wuhan, would be the first on the Chinese mainland.[.]

BSL-4 is the highest level of biocontainment: its criteria include filtering air and treating water and waste before they leave the laboratory, and stipulating that researchers change clothes and shower before and after using lab facilities. Such labs are often controversial. The first BSL-4 lab in Japan was built in 1981, but operated with lower-risk pathogens until 2015, when safety concerns were finally overcome.[.]


Many staff from the Wuhan lab have been training at a BSL-4 lab in Lyon, which some scientists find reassuring. And the facility has already carried out a test-run using a low-risk virus.

But worries surround the Chinese lab, too. The SARS virus has escaped from high-level containment facilities in Beijing multiple times, notes Richard Ebright, a molecular biologist at Rutgers University in Piscataway, New Jersey. Tim Trevan, founder of CHROME Biosafety and Biosecurity Consulting in Damascus, Maryland, says that an open culture is important to keeping BSL-4 labs safe, and he questions how easy this will be in China, where society emphasizes hierarchy. “Diversity of viewpoint, flat structures where everyone feels free to speak up and openness of information are important,” he says.[.]

Posted by: Likklemore | Jan 26 2020 3:21 utc | 83

@9
Zerohedge is a Trumpist/alt-right site. Lately they've been infested with anti-China,anti-EU crap of sort.

Posted by: Fabin | Jan 26 2020 3:24 utc | 84

@14 worldbee

Flu deaths are grossly misrepresented and overcounted in the U.S. because deaths from pneumonia are also lumped into mortality numbers from Influenza.

Pneumonia deaths which affect the elderly severely account for probably over 80% of combined flu/pneumonia deaths.

Just an FYI.

Posted by: NemesisCalling | Jan 26 2020 3:33 utc | 85

NotBob #55

It is my admittedly limited understanding that in addition to the fowl/human proximity, there is the large number of pigs that are also raised in close proximity (if not intermingled) to all those ducks and chickens. Pigs being so close metabolically (and genetically?) to humans, they provide an excellent site for whatever viruses are present to mutate into a form that is more easily transmitted to and among humans.

To temper that proposition, my observation of life among polynesian and melanesian people throughout the pacific is similar in their proximity to domestic pigs and fowl. Why no outbreaks there where proximity is closer and sanitation circumstances much less effective? Munching on bats is also common and they even can them in some places.

Is this a genetic susceptibility perhaps?

I recall an outbreak of japanese encephalitis in the Torres Strait islands where pigs were kept under dwellings and mosquitoes spread the virus between human and pig and back again in a perfect closed circuit.

But why no regular viral outbreak among Papuans? Perhaps they will inherit the earth. Likewise Indonesia?

Is it simply that we do not see this reported and the only reason the current scare is manifested is because it is Hate China week again?

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jan 26 2020 3:40 utc | 86

In case you forget,

War games that turned live....!

https://edwardmd.files.wordpress.com/2013/04/00drill603712_10200305411612853_2104942473_n1.jpg?w=450

Posted by: denk | Jan 26 2020 3:41 utc | 87

Inoticed | Jan 25 2020 18:53 utc | 20:

I remember and the news was sweep under the rug rather quickly IIRC. There should be no doubts on people working on such disgusting things.

Posted by: Ian2 | Jan 26 2020 3:51 utc | 88


In case you forget,

Yet another 'war game' that went live !

https://www.globalresearch.ca/when-war-games-go-live-staging-a-humanitarian-war-against-southland/24351

Posted by: denk | Jan 26 2020 4:05 utc | 89

Thanks B. Now just waiting on the Norwegian:)

Posted by: Tannenhouser | Jan 26 2020 4:18 utc | 90

For anyone who is interested, there is a Facebook public group called Wuhan Expats, set up by foreigners living in Wuhan critical of the Western media's reporting on the recent coronavirus outbreak.

You may ask the group questions but its members are not talking to journalists.

A little bit of background on the group:
Frank Hossack, "Wuhan Expats Fed Up With Foreign Media Hype" (The Nanjinger)

Posted by: Jen | Jan 26 2020 4:49 utc | 91

Jen | Jan 26 2020 4:49 utc | 89

Thanks for that link.
Living in Thailand for the last 17 years, I can really relate to your link.
The foreign reporting on the military coups here was Monte Pythonesk...especially from the U.S. MSM...

Posted by: V | Jan 26 2020 5:41 utc | 92

The easiest way to reduce the number of health scares is to take the profit out of health care by banning patents on medicines and life forms, including viruses. Instead research can be restricted to universities and non-profit institutions funded by tax payers. This removal of the profit motive would provide much cheaper and more effective health care. What tax payers now fork over to pharmaceutical companies and ,in the US HMOs, would be more than enough to cover the costs of research of non-profit institutions.

Posted by: Blue Dotterel | Jan 26 2020 6:23 utc | 93

I sure wish you would post more of beq's work, if available.

Posted by: Dr Wellington Yueh | Jan 26 2020 6:57 utc | 94

I sure wish you would post more of beq's work, if available.

Posted by: Dr Wellington Yueh

Beq no longer comments here. Haven't from her for years. Likewise with other artists who's pictures I posted.

Posted by: b | Jan 26 2020 7:31 utc | 95

re : uncle tungsten | Jan 26 2020 3:40 utc | 84

There are 683,786 Polynesian souls spread across all the islands of the South Pacific. Around 50% of them live the traditional lifestyle which includes a house pig. see here You can see that doesn't compare with a billion Chinese of whom a similar ratio probably live rurally and keep pigs.
Melanesians currently a tad over 11 million souls more than Polynesia sure but still infinitesimal in comparison to China's population.

Indonesia is far larger at 273,523,615 but still much less by an order of magnitude than China at 1,439,323,776 . Nevertheless previously unseen viruses have popped outta Indonesia from time to time - given the population of Indonesia is about one eighth or 12.5% of China, that should be the approximate ratio except for one important difference - Indonesia is a vast archipelago so it is likely transmission of viruses is considerably less efficient.

Population plays a major role in this, just as anyone who buys 1,439,323,776 lotto tickets is more likely to take the jackpot than the type who only grabs 683,786 of the worthless things, new virus evolution is a numbers game - except it prolly isn't a purely linear relationship . Population density may be even more important than just population numbers.

The west needs to wake up on this & recognise that it is they who hold the rough end of the pineapple in a simple numbers game - there is no way fukus can win anything long term so their smartest move is to STFU and get along to go along. I fear that by the time our sociopathic leaders finally come to terms with that it will be too late they will have antagonised the unwhite majority of this planet too much.

Posted by: A User | Jan 26 2020 7:35 utc | 96

@all the newest numbers:


People's Daily, China @PDChina
Chinese health authorities announced Sunday that 1,975 confirmed cases of pneumonia caused by the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), including 324 in critical conditions and 56 deaths, had been reported in the country by the end of Saturday.

People's Daily, China @PDChina
#WuhanPneumonia cases outside China
- Thailand: 4
- Japan: 2
- South Korea: 3
- US: 2
- Vietnam: 2
- Singapore: 3
- Malaysia: 3
- Nepal: 1
- France: 3
- Australia: 1

As for economic consequences:

As it is the lunar new year many Chinese are traveling which increases the possible distribution.

But it also means that many factories were already closed over the holidays and the loss of production due to the epidemic will therefore be less than during other times.

Industry in Wuhan will be hurt but not decisively.

Here is some cooking for the Chinese new year: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Jqrm2MNggk


Posted by: b | Jan 26 2020 7:37 utc | 97

It will never cease to amaze me how such absolutely great journalism that b. does based on facts attracts so many anti-vaxx conspiracy loonies.

Posted by: BRafael | Jan 26 2020 7:39 utc | 98

re Posted by: b | Jan 26 2020 7:31 utc | 93 who said "Beq no longer comments here. Haven't from her for years. Likewise with other artists who's pictures I posted." Damn shame - MoA was a much more pleasant place to hang before we got too blokey and distilled down to a bunch of over-read retired men plus a handful of tenacious women,.
It is likely not quite that simple but contempt for the Oblamblam dems was hard for some who have devoted much toil and resources to the dems. I dunno if beq fitted into that but I do know that quite a few of the women did still hold hope for a dem renaissance and are probably still hoping in many cases.
amerika is too hard to fix because it is too big, the arseholes have been grinding away closing off any loopholes that could engender real hope for too long - for centuries.

Worker based political parties for the workingman/working person are no longer viable - too many mean laws in too many mean legislatures have made it so. Now that the notion of work has changed so much that unions cannot get comprehensive population coverage, us ordinary humans have a unique opportunity which young humans can take advantage of.
We may have lost the ability to unite and withhold our labour, but we have not lost the ability to withhold our consumption. The net phones and their associated apps provide some great ways of harnessing consumption power.

Posted by: A User | Jan 26 2020 7:57 utc | 99

They stress they're not trying to be alarmists...

In other words exactly the opposite! That piece of s__t Baker's summary is straight out of the CIA's regime-change handbook. I hope those two scoudrels in the video get arrested and jailed for life.

Wow! The CIA trolls are really out in force today with their nonsensical scaremongering! No delay in coming either, i.e. well primed for action. Fortunately the Chinese are well ahead of the curve, in my opinion, and have everything under control. I give them top marks.

Posted by: BM | Jan 26 2020 8:03 utc | 100

next page »

Verify your Comment

Previewing your Comment

This is only a preview. Your comment has not yet been posted.

Working...
Your comment could not be posted. Error type:
Your comment has been posted. Post another comment

The letters and numbers you entered did not match the image. Please try again.

As a final step before posting your comment, enter the letters and numbers you see in the image below. This prevents automated programs from posting comments.

Having trouble reading this image? View an alternate.

Working...

Post a comment

Working...