Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
January 11, 2020

Iranian Armed Forces Say They Inadvertently Shot Down The Ukrainian Plane - Updated

Updated below

The Iranian Armed Forces General Staff just admitted (in Farsi, English translation) that its air defenses inadvertently shot down the Ukrainian flight PS 752 shortly after it took off on January 8 in Tehran :

2- In early hours after the missile attack [on US’ Ain al-Assad base in Iraq], the military flights of the US’ terrorist forces had increased around the country. The Iranian defence units received news of witnessing flying targets moving towards Iran’s strategic centres, and then several targets were observed in some [Iranian] radars, which incited further sensitivity at the Air Defence units.

3- Under such sensitive and critical circumstances, the Ukrainian airline’s Flight PS752 took off from Imam Khomeini Airport, and when turning around, it approached a sensitive military site of the IRGC, taking the shape and altitude of a hostile target. In such conditions, due to human error and in an unintentional move, the airplane was hit [by the Air Defence], which caused the martyrdom of a number of our compatriots and the deaths of several foreign nationals.

4- The General Staff of the Armed Forces offers condolences and expresses sympathy with the bereaved families of the Iranian and foreign victims, and apologizes for the human error. It also gives full assurances that it will make major revision in the operational procedures of its armed forces in order to make impossible the recurrence of such errors. It will also immediately hand over the culprits to the Judicial Organization of the Armed Forces for prosecution.

The Pentagon had claimed that Iran shot down the airliner but the evidence it presented was flimsy and not sufficient as the U.S. tends to spread disinformation about Iran.

It is welcome that the Iranian forces come clean about the incident.

That is not a given in such cases.

After the USS Vincennes in 1988 had shot down Iran Air Flight 655 and killed 290 people, including many children, the U.S. government denied any culpability. George H. W. Bush, the vice president of the United States at the time, commented: "I will never apologize for the United States – I don't care what the facts are... I'm not an apologize-for-America kind of guy." Despite its "error" the crew was given medals and the captain was even awarded a Legion of Merit "for exceptionally meritorious conduct in the performance of outstanding service as commanding officer ...".

We can be assured by the statement of Iran's president that the responsible Iranian officer will receive no such a reward:

Hassan Rouhani @HassanRouhani - 4:43 UTC · 11 Jan 2020
Armed Forces’ internal investigation has concluded that regrettably missiles fired due to human error caused the horrific crash of the Ukrainian plane & death of 176 innocent people.
Investigations continue to identify & prosecute this great tragedy & unforgivable mistake. #PS752

The Islamic Republic of Iran deeply regrets this disastrous mistake.

My thoughts and prayers go to all the mourning families. I offer my sincerest condolences.

Let us also not forget that the root cause of the accident was an assassination campaign which the U.S. launched against foreign military commanders of a country with which it is not at war:

On the day U.S. forces killed Soleimani, they launched another secret operation targeting a senior Iranian official in Yemen

The strike targeting Abdul Reza Shahlai, a financier and key commander of Iran’s elite Quds Force who has been active in Yemen, did not result in his death, according to four U.S. officials familiar with the matter.

The U.S. executed a long planned campaign against several Iranian officers in third countries without any reasonable justification:

“There is no doubt that there were a series of imminent attacks being plotted by Qasem Soleimani,” Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told Fox News on Friday. “We don’t know precisely when and we don’t know precisely where, but it was real.” Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Defense Secretary Mark T. Esper have likewise supported the case for an imminent plot.

“Did it exactly say who, what, when, where? No,” Milley told reporters this week. “But he was planning, coordinating and synchronizing significant combat operations against U.S. military forces in the region, and it was imminent.”

Can there be any "imminent threat" when one does not know the "who, what, when, where" of the threat? Why would killing a high officer prevent the execution of such a threat? The excuse is obviously bullshit.

It was the U.S. assassination of the Iraqi and Iranian national heroes Abu Mahdi al-Muhandes and Major General Qassem Suleimani that led to the high alarm and nervousness which, in the end, killed 176 passengers and crew on board of flight PS 752.

Iran's foreign minister is right to point that out:

Javad Zarif @JZarif - 4:05 UTC · 11 Jan 2020
A sad day. Preliminary conclusions of internal investigation by Armed Forces:

Human error at time of crisis caused by US adventurism led to disaster

Our profound regrets, apologies and condolences to our people, to the families of all victims, and to other affected nations.
💔

The death of the people on flight PS 752 is the tragic outcome of unreasonable U.S. aggression.

Update 11:00 UTC

The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp IRGC's Aerospace Commander Amir-Ali Hajizadeh just gave press conference. It was an IRGC air defense unit that shot the plane down.

Iran Front Page journalist Reza Khaasteh translated on Twitter:

IRGC Aerospace Cmdr: I wish I was dead and such an incident hadn't happened. We in IRGC accept all the responsibility, and are ready to implement any decision made by the Establishment.

IRGC Aerospace Cmdr: I was in the country's west following attacks on US base in Iraq when I heard the news. We sacrificed our lives for our people for a lifetime, and now we're trading our reputation with God (disgracing ourselves) and appear in front of the camera to explain.

IRGC Aerospace Cmdr says we had requested the establishment of a no-fly zone given the war situation. But it was not approved for certain considerations.

Revision: IRGC Aerospace Cmdr says Air Defence operator sent a message to his commanders; but after he didn't receive any response for 10 seconds, he decided to shoot it down.

Video of IRGC Aerospace Cmdr. showing the place on map where the Ukrainian plane was shot down by the air defence.

IRGC Aerospace Cmdr: I informed Iranian officials on Wednesday morning, and said we speculate our own passenger plane has been shot down. But the General Staff of Armed Forces quarantined all those who knew about it, and decided to declare it later.

IRGC Aerospace Cmdr.: The officials, including Aviation authorities, who kept denying the missile hit, are not guilty. They made those remarks based on what they knew. We are to blame for everything.

IRGC Aerospace Cmdr.: We were at that time ready for an all-out war with US. We had reports of cruise missiles fired at Iran. It was an individual's error that caused this tragedy.

What I find inexplicable is that the crew of Tor M-1 air defense system did not really consider that the Tehran airport was operating and that civil traffic was likely. More than ten planes had already taken off before the Ukrainian flight took to the air. The accident happened shortly after 6:00 am local time. Pure speculation: I suspect that a crew change had happened at 6:00 am and that the overnight crew did not really brief the one taking over.

Another leak (ukr) from the Ukrainian side of the investigation gives some hints on how the plane came down (machine translation):

"We took up the restoration of fragments of the aircraft. It was necessary to determine how these pieces of metal dumped into a huge pile should be interconnected.

The intrigue remained until late. The fact is that there were no damages on most parts of the aircraft. There was no explosion and no fire in the engines or on the wings. It is possible that the plane could fall almost intact. Unlike the remains of the Boeing MN-17, there were no immediately visible signs of defeat by combat elements on the fuselage and wings. A lot of damage to the case is the result of a fall. But after laying out all the fragments of the aircraft, it became obvious that the bottom of the cockpit was missing.

Among the wreckage, fragments of the upper part of the cabin were identified. And then the find finally took place - at about 22 hours. On a fragment of the cockpit, we found holes in the damaging elements of the warhead of the rocket, which pierced the skin. We found! For the first time, direct evidence appeared in this case, which made it possible to prove what caused the death of the aircraft. For us it was a turning point.

So what we now understand:

Russian anti-aircraft missile "Tor" hit the liner in the lower part of the front of the fuselage, directly under the cockpit.

A direct hit and the cabin flared up inside. Instantly turned off the transponder of the aircraft, which gives signals about the flight. Instantly lost contact.

While there is no data, one or two missiles have caused such damage. It is possible that the second missile also hit the fuselage from below close to the first. But all this remains to be clarified.

We continue to lay out fragments of the aircraft until the complete collection of all surviving parts.

We expect that today we will gain access to all objective control data.

In cooperation with Iranian colleagues, we get the impression that those who contact us sincerely want to help themselves and figure it out, in general, there are no problems. Let's hope that such a mood and working contacts remain with us now."

Posted by b on January 11, 2020 at 4:21 UTC | Permalink

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George Bush’s Secret Letter to Iran

When President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran broke Islamic Republic precedent and wrote a letter directly to President George Bush of the United States, the public was told that the letter was ignored and no response would likely be forthcoming. This reporter has learned through leaks out of Hollywood, of all places, that, like the story of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, the report was not true. Actually, the President has already responded secretly in his own inimitable way. Here is a copy of that letter, which one of our relatives, who is an aspiring actress, was able to obtain:

http://dcdave.com/article5/060515.htm

Posted by: Mao | Jan 12 2020 10:43 utc | 401

If it could ever be proven that Boeing planes are being used as RC weaponized drones, the fallout would be epic.

Posted by: Sorghum | Jan 11 2020 23:18 utc | 312

No. It is enough to prove than one can switch off the transponder from a remote place. I have told in case you fly some aircraft over Germany and switch off the transponder it would take 2 minutes till you accompanied by a fighter jet.

Posted by: Hausmeister | Jan 12 2020 10:45 utc | 402

Populism

If the concerns of ordinary people were not overlooked, if their interests were not neglected and their desires not betrayed, there would be no opportunity for anyone to come along and finally give them the acknowledgement and representation that they deserve since they would already be satisfied. But their voice is ignored, there trust constantly abused and their hopes ultimately forsaken. If the public was cared for at all, what reason would there be for them to feel indignation or disappointment? How could there be anything to appeal to at all? How could there be any unspoken sentiment to tap into and arouse? Those who pledge to pull the rug out from under the feet of the establishment criminals that call themselves politicians are smeared and threatened. There cannot be a restoration of positive values and policies, and the public most definitely cannot have their needs not just insincerely addressed, but positively fulfilled. In what kind of world is someone who sympathizes with popular opinion fervently attacked? What does it say about a society that condemns a truly popular leader who is confided in and adored? A leader that vows to give the people their pride and dignity back? To reinstate a semblance of order? To persecute the traitors that have sacrificed their future on the alter of usury and greed? No. The clique must not be held to account for their crimes, and the concept of justice must remain theoretical. The term populist is perceived negatively. But why? I will tell you why. Because the charlatans that call themselves leaders today fear their milk and honey being wrested from their grimy little paws.

Alan Sabrosky

Posted by: Mao | Jan 12 2020 10:48 utc | 403

Paveway
Thanks for putting up the tip on deleting the page stretching links. I could read the page normally in firefox, but could not post comments so I tried your tip. Works like magic.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 12 2020 11:03 utc | 404

Trump sells troops.

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1215836306162372608

Posted by: Mao | Jan 12 2020 11:11 utc | 405

Instagram and its parent company Facebook are removing posts that voice support for slain Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani to comply with US sanctions, a Facebook spokesperson said in a statement to CNN Business Friday.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/01/10/tech/instagram-iran-soleimani-posts/index.html

Posted by: Mao | Jan 12 2020 11:14 utc | 406

Boeing's “uninterruptible” autopilot "would be activated ... remotely via radio or satellite links by government agencies like the Central Intelligence Agency."

https://www.flightglobal.com/diagrams-boeing-patents-anti-terrorism-auto-land-system-for-hijacked-airliners/70886.article

https://21stcenturywire.com/2014/08/07/flight-control-boeings-uninterruptible-autopilot-system-drones-remote-hijacking/

Posted by: Mao | Jan 12 2020 11:19 utc | 407

Not sure how long this lasts before someone messes it up with a mile long link. Why b does not delete comments that disrupt the formatting is a good question.

In any event Iran played right into the US -Israeli hands. They should not have responded. I said at the outset they would be smart not to. They simply should have followed protocol under international law (feeble and futile as it would be). They accomplished nothing with their missiles and showed weakness (30% missed or were duds) If they felt the need to retaliate it should have been a covert op that provided plausible deniability.

I’m still baffled at the airline shoot down. Radar should have shown that the Boeing 737 was on a commonly used flight path heading away from the airport—if it was inbound into the country it would be easier to explain misidentification . The Boeing 737 should have been transmitting a transponder identification code. If the equipment that picks that up, called an IFF interrogator, was malfunctioning, battery operators would have considered the path and speed of the plane on radar. The Flight was rising toward 8,000 feet at a leisurely 275 knots when flight tracking data from its transponder cut out, a normal profile for an airliner. So it is departing the area, climbing through medium altitude, not trying to hide its signature, looking like a routine operation and its shot down?

I’d say if they shot this plane down they are a mess and that perhaps there are some disloyal elements within the military who might want change and seized the opportunity to make them look bad. Sanctions take a toll on moral and support of the people. Thats the intention. Maybe its working.

I am sure the US and Israel will be ready to jump in and help restore peace and help with reconstruction after the coming revolution. That wont be cheap so we (they) will have to get 50% of the oil/gas, and maybe a Trump Tower in Tehran (after he leaves office).

Posted by: Pft | Jan 12 2020 11:42 utc | 408

Uncle Tunsten @392

The Iranian "slap in The face" was effectively arranged with the US. What does that mean?

The assassination of Soliemani was not a stupid irrational act - it was a warning to Iran, Iraq and Iran that there will be no rapproachment. What does that mean for the likelihood of Oman taking a stand against US interests?

You dismiss the petrodollar as it if has no real bearing, but it is everything - without the petrodollar the US crumbles. And, what you also fail to realise is that the US cannot extract itself from the petrodollar therefore it US trapped and compelled to to do anything it can to defend the petrodollar.

Posted by: ADKC | Jan 12 2020 11:51 utc | 409

The MEK is the group Trump wants to replace the Iran regime.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3oIChqqSgzo

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27s_Mujahedin_of_Iran

Posted by: irate | Jan 12 2020 11:59 utc | 410

Mao the uninterruptible auto pilot in the 21stcenturywire article is for fly by wire aircraft. Airbus are fly by wire as are some boeing models, but the 737s, apart from engine controls are not. 737 Max has fly by wire spoilers. On a fly by wire all that is required is to override or replace pilot input signals into the computer to take control of the flight controls.
The article speaks of embedded software being the uninterruptible auto pilot.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 12 2020 12:05 utc | 411

Nobody is asking questions why didn't Iran close down their airspace if they were expecting retaliation, perhaps because they needed a human shield in case Americans attacked? And they were expecting retaliation that is what the IRGC said.

Posted by: dave | Jan 12 2020 12:10 utc | 412

i'm still not sure if some kind of hacking or cyberattack messed up the ability of iranian defense to respond to the plane. at any rate, the ultimate responsibility lies with the u.s. and israel who want regime change in iran and have tried to achieve that for decades.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Jan 12 2020 12:11 utc | 413

@pretzelattack Iran also wanted regime change in the region through their export of the Islamic Revolution. Most likely Iranian defenses got hacked, their communications lines were down, but that does not excuse them for not closing the airspace (perhaps they needed a human shield in case Americans attacked).

Posted by: dave | Jan 12 2020 12:14 utc | 414

People here writing stuff as if Iran and Russia are like ww2 allies. No they are not, even Putin said Russia is never going to allied herself with 1 country against another country in the middle east, that means Putin's Russia is seeking equilibrium in the middle east. It explains why Russia hesitated (after selling) to deliver the S-300 as agreed to Iran, while willing to sell S-400 to Iraq. That is because Russia wants the whole Middle East to be able to defend themselves against USA/Zionists and against each other -- that is equilibrium.

Posted by: dave | Jan 12 2020 12:23 utc | 415

dave
Iran's S-300s were delivered and deployed some time ago.
https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2016-11/news-briefs/russia-completes-s-300-delivery-iran

https://auroraintel.net/middle-east/iranian-s-300-locations

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 12 2020 12:29 utc | 416

they could have just screwed up, too, dave. that happens in war. that doesn't put them on some kind of equal footing with the u.s. and israel. iran hasn't attacked any other countries that i know of, what have they done exactly to topple other governments anywhere?

Posted by: pretzelattack | Jan 12 2020 12:29 utc | 417

@Peter The S-300 has been delivered after a long long long delay (years) after payment. Iran was very very upset and angry about this..

Posted by: dave | Jan 12 2020 12:30 utc | 418

@pretzelattack On what planet have you been living? Iran has been trying to export their Islamic revolution throughout the region and elsewhere where there are muslims ever since 1979. Iran has a neo-con and a conservative faction. The neo-cons are radicals who are seeking worldwide Islamic Revolution, the conservatives want to keep their revolution within their own borders, it is like Stalin vs Trotsky, Stalin wanted communism in 1 country, Trotsky wanted world wide revolution.

Posted by: dave | Jan 12 2020 12:35 utc | 419

dave
You have just been spreading shit that it was never delivered. Upgraded S-300 systems were delivered to Iran as soon as UNSC nuclear related sanctions were lifted.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 12 2020 12:37 utc | 420

again, dave, do you have any specifics? what governments has iran tried to topple, and how?

Posted by: pretzelattack | Jan 12 2020 12:37 utc | 421

@pretzelattack No they haven't screwed up, they (Iranian government) denied IRQGC's request to close down the airspace. Same thing as with Ukraine, Ukraine did not close down their airspace while they knew beforehand (as has been proven by news articles before the MH17 shootdown) there was a BUK in hands of rebels (if that news is true), the rebels were also actively shooting down military jets with manpads. Yet the Ukraine did not close down the airspace, they were using the airliners as human shield as has been proven by the fact their jets were shadowing the airliners.

Posted by: dave | Jan 12 2020 12:40 utc | 422

correction IRQGC --> IRGC

Posted by: dave | Jan 12 2020 12:41 utc | 423

dave 414

"Iran also wanted regime change in the region through their export of the Islamic Revolution."

1. Which governments was Iran at odds with other than Western colonial stooges working for Western imperial goals? Which leads to:

2. Any attempted "export" by Iran has been clear-cut self defense against relentlessly aggressive Western exportation of imperial globalized capitalism. It's even more clear-cut one-way US/Western aggression than in the case of the Cold War. Iran's 20th century experiences with Western aggression in all forms is far more than enough to justify anything they have done in response, which in any event has been relatively very modest.

415

"People here writing stuff as if Iran and Russia are like ww2 allies."

They may not be natural "allies", but they've long had a shared enemy in Western imperialism in the Mideast. They still have that shared interest, which is becoming increasingly existential whether Putin or the Iranians want to admit that to themselves or not. I know this berserker US government. It ain't going home willingly. It's not going to go gentle into that goodnight.

Posted by: Russ | Jan 12 2020 12:45 utc | 424

dave, i didn't say anything about closing down the airspace, although that could be another screwup; i was talking about shooting down the plane. but since you bring it up, do you have any evidence they were using planes as human shields, or any evidence about how the airspace was not closed in the first place? still waiting on the questions of what governments iran has tried to overthrow and how.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Jan 12 2020 12:47 utc | 425

This is infuriating i just receieved an emergency alert regarding the picker nuclear power plant telling me to watch local media yet cbc news still has no information what happend in pickering its still wall to wall coverage of ithe iran air crash disaster

Posted by: Kadath | Jan 12 2020 12:50 utc | 426

@pretzelattack Though nothing compared to what the Americans have been doing, they were spreading their Islamic ideology throughout the region ever since the Islamic revolution of 1979, by exporting the concept of suicide bombings to the Palestinian areas (Hamas, Islamic Jihad), their involvement with Yemen where houthi are trying to overthrow their government, they have been involved in Bosnia. The middle east has seen a Islamic revival thanks to the Iranians and the Americans who needed an Islamic block against secular and socialist block of the 3rd world and 2nd world.

Posted by: dave | Jan 12 2020 12:50 utc | 427

dave 414

"Iran also wanted regime change in the region through their export of the Islamic Revolution."

There wasn't any export that I was aware of. And certainly not regime change. The only question was the Shi'a of Iraq, and Sistani rejected the Iranian model of vilayat-i faqih.

Posted by: Laguerre | Jan 12 2020 12:55 utc | 428

Kadath

https://sputniknews.com/world/202001121078015363-incident-reported-at-canadas-pickering-nuclear-power-plant/
The alert, issued at 7:20 am Sunday, assured Ontarians that "there has been NO abnormal release of radioactivity from the station and emergency staff are responding to the situation."
The bulletin also indicated that people nearby "do not need to take protective actions at this time."

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 12 2020 12:57 utc | 429

@pretzelattack not closing down airspace while IRGC has asked for it because of possible retaliation, that to me sounds like their politicians wanted victims at the hands of the Americans in front of the world (for propaganda purposes). That is the same as in Sarajevo where Bosnian Muslim government forces placed heavy weaponry in the middle of the heavily populated city targeting Serb villages/positions around the city. That is classic human shield against enemy retaliation, also good for propaganda purposes and world opinion in case the enemy retaliates and creates casualties among civilians. UNPROFOR commander got really angry at the Bosnian forces and demanded withdrawal of the heavy weaponry from the heavily populated area, the UNPROFOR commander even threatened to bomb Bosnian Muslim positions because of this provocation by the Bosnian Muslim government forces.

Posted by: dave | Jan 12 2020 13:01 utc | 430

the yemenis are being slaughtered by the saudis, i don't see the iran aid as regime change. and the u.s. had a secular block against the socialist world in saddam till they threw him under the bus. i'm not sure who came up with the idea of suicide bombing, but i don't associate it specifically with iran. it's just another tactic, no more objectionable than pushing typing something on a keyboard half a world away and blowing somebody up by drone, and i don't see how it relates specifically to iran trying to overthrow other governments. i don't support iran's theocratic leanings, but my impression is that prior to the u.s. and u.k. deposing mossaddegh iran was more of an inward looking country.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Jan 12 2020 13:05 utc | 431

Posted by: dave | Jan 12 2020 12:50 utc | 427

"The middle east has seen a Islamic revival thanks to the Iranians and the Americans who needed an Islamic block against secular and socialist block of the 3rd world and 2nd world."

Yes indeed, the Arabs and the Mideast in general originally wanted to go the route of secular nationalism and only turned to a more religious-oriented movement when the West made nationalist progress impossible. Islamic radicalism wasn't their first choice. From what I've read it sounds like Sayyid Qutb originally had less of an audience than my obscure blog. But they came to realize it was their only effective option.

That, too, is 100% on the West. All fundamentalisms are modern movements of reaction against the aggression of other movements within modernity, most obviously Western cultural, economic, military imperialism.

Posted by: Russ | Jan 12 2020 13:06 utc | 432

dave 430

The US drove the Yugoslav firestorm by unilaterally recognizing Bosnian independence while the UN was still trying to work out a negotiated settlement. The US egged them on by implying or promising military support. The Bosnians were more like pawns and at any rate certainly were not Iranian proxies acting in accord with what you allege with zero evidence to be Iran's aggressive Islamist plan for world domination.

Posted by: Russ | Jan 12 2020 13:11 utc | 433

@ Pft | Jan 12 2020 11:42 utc | 408

"I’m still baffled at the airline shoot down. Radar should have shown that the Boeing 737 was on a commonly used flight path heading away from the airport—if it was inbound into the country it would be easier to explain misidentification."

Look, I'm not in any position to say what did (or did not) happen. And neither is anyone else outside a very small covert closed group -- and that probably includes the Iranians with their (allegedly) modern rocket technology and somewhat 19th century thinking and governance systems.

What I do assume is: any technology that the public finds on the magazine/website du jour is already out dated by at least one cycle and probably edging into the release for commercial market phase.

In a previous post I suggested that any virtual software computer system (of which modern jet airliners are mostly -- with a bit of flying hardware attached) can be, in theory, easily separated out into an onion-layered virtual operating system environment which, for all intents and purposes, provides 100% of the simulated environment data/parameters between the layers and applications. The cybernetic world has run on this in the business world since the late 20th century. I doubt the military are in catch-up mode -- quite the opposite, I'd assume.

How do you or I know that what the Iranian 'saw,' or more importantly, thought they saw in that 10 second 'engineered' gap?

One does not need to go full-spectrum Matrix or SkyNet thinking (just yet) to see where this is headed. But I raise an eyebrow at any narrow thinking precluding advanced AI scenarios that synthesis real-world and psychological-world vectors to exploit and manipulate the situation in focus towards desirable outcomes.

Knowing the Iranian character and worldview, and the religious top-down control culture and systems of command (and their weaknesses), allows for strategic modelling of scenarios that, if not directly controlled and created in the virtual 'digital' software world -- probably a few years off yet except in niche environments (hello major MIC supplier Boeing!) -- then at least in terms of statistical 'swarms' of data that nudge the real world towards higher probability preferred scenario. Whether Bayesian statistics is relevant or not, there are advanced options to experiment with.

This cluster-fuck by the Iranian military, set off by an equivalent of 21st century "Archduke Franz Ferdinand" event is like watching (unfortunately, imo, and only because I believe a balanced multi-polar world is a safer scenario) a Mexican peasant running after his hat just blow off his head by a gust of wind. Comical if not so bloody dangerous for the global geopolitical and economic context.

NK is another case altogether. They have enough nuke or no-nuke (as does Israel apparently) binary options to be treated with some junk-yard guard dog 'respect'. But the romantic poets and intellectuals of Tehran (with their 4,000 years of increasingly irrelevant cultural history) are just being played with like a wounded mouse by a cat.

I had written off the USA in accord with the public narrative until this event. Now I've sat back and looked at it again and the pattern looks entirely different. Trump or not, this has coordinated psyops dimensions flashing red all over, imo.

If what I have set out here as a possible (plausible?) scenario is even anywhere near a reality then Iran (Mullah version) is on the edge of collapse. The people will rise up for any number of reasons -- but one critical emerging one will be simply utter frustration with trying to live and work in the modern global world with a state-based ideology suited for the Crusades of the Middle Ages. Why not just uniform up in 'British Red Coats' with a red cross labeled "shoot here!" across the heart? [*]

The last item of interest towards this view is the almost hysterical reaction by the US to Russia's S300/S400/S500... technology expanding into broader markets. I'd suggest, apart from being high-class radar and missile technology, it is also likely resistant to the digital manipulation risk that 'sees' a Boeing lilting sideways (and mapping mentally) as a cruise missile within a critical window of weakness etc. Perhaps one can see behind the Oz wizard curtain better?

----
[*] - Since 9/11 it has been clear to some in the systems/cybernetics fields that an emerging 'chaos' orientated global governance model was coming into play. The use of the periodic 'shock' is the key. Think defibrillation as the metaphor to keep a certain heart-beat rhythm going while chaos (systemic fibrillation) reigns -- and is even promoted in some contexts. The book to read on the theory is "Chaos: Making a New Science" by James Gleick (1987). He applies/explains the defibrillation principles. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaos:_Making_a_New_Science )

Posted by: imo | Jan 12 2020 13:12 utc | 434

USA has attacked secular Iraq, secular Lybia, they helped Al Qaeda and other Islamists in their battle against secular governments (Afghanistan), USA (democrats) are in bed with the Muslim Brotherhood, USA has helped the Muslim Brotherhood and instigated the revolution in overthrowing the secular/military government of Egypt. USA was involved with the Arab Spring which targeted secular governments.

Soviet Union and USA both supported Saddam's Iraq against Iran, then USA dumped Saddam starting in 1991.

The concept of suicide bombings comes from Iran, they were promoting and instigating suicide bombings against Israel. Sunni Islam never had a history of suicide bombings before. Al Qaeda took that concept of suicide bombings from Iran and got a CIA sponsor (in the afghanistan war). Iran also has a tradition of religious flagellation: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2507355/Slashing-chained-blades-bloodied-Muslims-including-young-boys-flagellate-themselves.html

Posted by: dave | Jan 12 2020 13:17 utc | 435

Dave 427

Seems to me you need to swot up on the Sunni and Shia.
When you find out the differences come back.
This for instance...
Craig Murray 4th Jan
Quote
The truth of the matter is that if you take every American killed including and since 9/11, in the resultant Middle East related wars, conflicts and terrorist acts, well over 90% of them have been killed by Sunni Muslims financed and supported out of Saudi Arabia and its gulf satellites, and less than 10% of those Americans have been killed by Shia Muslims tied to Iran.
This is a horribly inconvenient fact for US administrations which, regardless of party, are beholden to Saudi Arabia and its money. It is, the USA affirms, the Sunnis who are the allies and the Shias who are the enemy. Yet every journalist or aid worker hostage who has been horribly beheaded or otherwise executed has been murdered by a Sunni, every jihadist terrorist attack in the USA itself, including 9/11, has been exclusively Sunni, the Benghazi attack was by Sunnis, Isil are Sunni, Al Nusra are Sunni, the Taliban are Sunni and the vast majority of US troops killed in the region are killed by Sunnis.
Precisely which are these hundreds of deaths for which the Shia forces of Soleimani were responsible? Is there a list? It is of course a simple lie. Its tenuous connection with truth relates to the Pentagon’s estimate – suspiciously upped repeatedly since Iran became the designated enemy – that back during the invasion of Iraq itself, 83% of US troop deaths were at the hands of Sunni resistance and 17% of of US troop deaths were at the hands of Shia resistance, that is 603 troops. All the latter are now lain at the door of Soleimani, remarkably.
Those were US troops killed in combat during an invasion. The Iraqi Shia militias – whether Iran backed or not – had every legal right to fight the US invasion. The idea that the killing of invading American troops was somehow illegal or illegitimate is risible. Plainly the US propaganda that Soleimani was “responsible for hundreds of American deaths” is intended, as part of the justification for his murder, to give the impression he was involved in terrorism, not legitimate combat against invading forces. The idea that the US has the right to execute those who fight it when it invades is an absolutely stinking abnegation of the laws of war.
As I understand it, there is very little evidence that Soleimani had active operational command of Shia militias during the invasion, and in any case to credit him personally with every American soldier killed is plainly a nonsense. But even if Soleimani had personally supervised every combat success, these were legitimate acts of war. You cannot simply assassinate opposing generals who fought you, years after you invade.

Posted by: Emily | Jan 12 2020 13:18 utc | 436

@Russ Yes Bosnia was primarily US proxy, Alija Izetbegovic, Bosnian Muslim leader, he staged a coup with US backing, before he organized the illegal arming of his political party with illegal weapons, they started the war by attacking Yugoslav forces, Alija Izetbegovic wanted an Islamic State according to the Iranian revolution (as he had written in his book "Islamic Declaration"), many Iranian mujahideen (including Solaymani himself) besides famous Al Qaeda members went to Bosnia to fight (together). The Clinton administration gave the green light to Iran for their support to the Bosnian Muslims (which also included Sunni Islamic radicals and known 911 hijackers). Iran is willing to support Sunni terrorists if that is in their geopolitical interests, just as they supported Sunni radicals in the Palestinian areas (suicide bombings). Now Iran is enemy with Sunni radicals/terrorists, but Iran always wanted to unite all Islamic forces against Israel (and Christian world). Russia is seeking equilibrium in the middle east, Putin does not want to allied himself with 1 country against another country in the middle east, Russia does not want to allied herself with Iran against Israel, or the other way around.

Posted by: dave | Jan 12 2020 13:34 utc | 437

dave
You are rapped up in the concept of suicide attacks. It is as old as war itself.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suicide_attack#History,_pre-1980

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 12 2020 13:47 utc | 438

No more "whatabout" distraction from Iranian incompetence and guilt. One shootdown at a time. Iranian officers must be punished, commanders dismissed, compensation offered.
US and other Western crimes are separate, keep them separate.

Posted by: Jack_garbo | Jan 12 2020 13:50 utc | 439

@269

"It is a mystery to me why the airport was not closed down that night, esp. in view of the FAA warning that specifically addresses Tehran."

This questions has been asked multiple times by numerous people, b included. Speculation only, but one possibility is that after the missile strike on the air bases the Iranian government was expecting a military response from the U.S., perhaps even Shock and Awe Ver 2. Maybe in that highly tense period somebody high up decided it would be better not to close the airspace immediately, thinking it would complicate matters for the U.S. And if a civilian plane did get hit in the cross-fire, the U.S. could be rightfully blamed.

Posted by: Carciofi | Jan 12 2020 13:57 utc | 440

Immediately after this horrific tragedy the leaders of the US Canada Austria Germany Holland as well as other Western leaders claimed that a missile had brought the plane down sighting "intelligence." How did the Western leaders know so quickly? Were their intelligence organizations privy in any way in bringing down the plane? Through hacking air defense radars or some other high-tech tools?

As the fog of War lifts, as we proceed forward I suspect we will know more. A lot more.

Posted by: Al Kiani | Jan 12 2020 13:59 utc | 441

Some points...

-That now The Donald comes Twitting in Farsi is the obvious evidence that he does not manage his Twitter account, but one of his "ideologues", or a CIA agent...I bet Steven Miller...that nazi disguised in a gentleman suit trying, without success, to constrain his overwhelming rage againt everybody who do not profess his ideas...

-The regime in Oman will do nothing and will never join the Axis of Resistance, as a regime which resulted from a coup d´etat supported by the US/UK against its own father/monarch. We will be dándonos con un canto en los dientes if they remain somwhow "neutral"...
People who are more worried for their long time made up turbans, who hate getting untidy by any reason, do not usually take part in any fight, but like to remain as espectators...
That same could be said of the Swiss...who had the entrails to remain neutral during the nazi carnage, in the voew of all Europe being invaded, destroyed, submitted...hence they are now a rich country who act mainly as postman of the US...they had never to recover and rebuilt anything from smithereens as the rest of all....

-@Vintage Red, I join your expression of gratitude to bevin, although had to search for your numbered comments amongst the sea of trolls, but you notice the clear contrast with other alleged leftist resident of always ( notice how well they swim here in this sea of trolls and how they have taken advantage today to be prolific....)
That of bevin would be the common stance of any decent honest leftist, or person, in the world. The others resident here, who seem part time lefties, they really are not, but Trotskyite NATOist capitalist imperialist fifth column, the ones who have disintegrated and dismantled the genuine left in Europe and the whole West with their confussing stances, one day they say this, the other just the opposite....they criticize, slightly, the US, but then, at the first opprtunity, fall over any country or people from the resistance field as a hammer, justifying that way the evil deeds of the US and its cohort of criminal collaborating governments in Europe and North America.

-I continue finding the Russian stance in all these events shamefully mild, when not totally absent.

Posted by: Sasha | Jan 12 2020 14:03 utc | 442

The US and five eyes Orwellian hypocracy is far worse than any suicide attackers - in fact they now back the majority of them - the destruction a good part of the world in their war of terror, the humanitarian bombs and right to protect, weapons of mass destruction and vials of white powder regime changing friend and foe alike... the other day I had the pleasure of happening to be near a radio and had to listen to MH17 2.0 narrative ad nauseam. When Iran officials still thought the plane had come down due to technical problems fife new not only that it was downed by a surface to air missile, but that it was downed with a Tor missile.
With that it was completely obvious five eyes had pulled off another MH17 stunt.
And now shit head trolls like yourself and garbage man come to infest this site.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 12 2020 14:07 utc | 443

Now that Iran admitted downing the plane by mistake, some western journalists are pushing the narrative that it did it on purpose, and not by accident:

Iran keeps concocting fake news on downed jet

Stephen Bryen is the broken clock who was, for the first time in his life, right about the cause of the downing of the plane. Now he's riding on this excitement and is going one step further, echoing Trudeau's accusation one day earlier.

His main point of argument is that it is not possible the Tor operator had "only 6 seconds" to decide.

In the last thread, people who used the "it's too much coincidence" argument won the debate against all odds.

Now it's time for another "it's too much coincidence" argument: why, of all planes, it was a Boeing? Why, of all nationalities, it was Ukraine?

If Iran really downed the plane on purpose, then we're in counter-intelligence territory. The list of the names of the passengers is already out; some people here highlighted the fact that there were nuclear scientists in it; others highlighted the fact that the Americans can "mask" the signatures of a Boeing to make it look like a military plane; others got so far as to speculate about some kind of autopilot from afar. The correct question, though, should be: what did the Iranians discovered in or about that specific flight of such importance that they thought it better to publicly admit they downed it "by mistake"?

Posted by: vk | Jan 12 2020 14:08 utc | 444

Re Peter Au,

Yes thats the same message that came with the alert no details on what happend though. Pickering has a terrible safety record so the government assurances mean very little to me if they felt this was important enough to send out an emergency warning saying you dont need to do anything they should at least give some explantion of what happend - as im typing they send out another emergency alert saying the first alert was sent in error what a bunch of monkeys what is going on another Hawaii missile drill

Posted by: Kadath | Jan 12 2020 14:13 utc | 445

vk "what did the Iranians discovered in or about that specific flight of such importance that they thought it better to publicly admit they downed it "by mistake"

Over the last years, Iran has gone to great pains to do things by the letter of international law. It has top quality diplomats and statesmen like Zarif. It wishes to trade with the world, be accepted by the world while retaining sovereignty and way of life. IT complied with the original stipulation of the nuke deal for a year after US pulled out, and with the introductions of US sanctions, European countries pulled out of deals and trade with Iran. Even now Iran is still within the terms of the nuke deal as the are stipulations on what can be done if a party pulls out or does not abide by the deal.
Iranian government for the first day or so where sure the plane had come down due to technical problems. When they found it had been shot down as their enemies were saying, it was a major blow. Those few days of denying it had been shot down undone much of the painstaking diplomatic work they had accomplished over a decade or so.
Also on the military side, Iranian military have proven to be very professional and high tech, but this shootdown will be used against them to try and show incompetence as many of the trolls here are doing.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 12 2020 14:28 utc | 446

Dave, for others to understand everything, please answer the only question. Are you one of those who are tolerantly called Zionists on this site?

Posted by: Saraah | Jan 12 2020 14:30 utc | 447

Dave @422

"Ukraine did not close down the airspace, they were using the airliners as human shield as has been proven by the fact their jets were shadowing the airliners."

If we accept your view then we must accept that this was an intended win/win situation for Ukraine; Ukraine could use civilian aircraft for cover and, also, induce the rebels to shoot down a civilian aircraft. (I have a different view of MH17 but it would be OT to go into).

The MH17 scenario that you describe can only be comparable to Iranian shooting down PS752 if the US used similar tactics (presumably by use of electronic warfare) in order to induce Iran to shoot down PS752...

...or is it that your posts are full of fact-free, poorly researched whataboutism that should just be disregarded by any thinking person?

vk @444 asks the correct question? Perhaps, Iran know much more but a pre-requisite is that they must take responsibility for what they did - shooting down PS752) - and, perhaps, this is not what the US/west expected Iran to do? How would Iran know? Perhaps, Russian monitoring of US EW activity has revealed much more than the US expected? And, perhaps, Russia will not agree to any public relevation at present?

Posted by: ADKC | Jan 12 2020 14:51 utc | 448

@Posted by: Emily | Jan 12 2020 13:18 utc | 436

To your list of Sunni terrorists´ victims, add all those resulting from terrorist attacks in Europe in the last years, by, then discovered, suspciously Sunni extremists related to mosques and mullahs funde by KSA for long time old known of the security services of any European country which has suffered these terrorist attacks....

Everybody a bit informed and their dogs knows by now that all these attacks were made to create "shock and awe" amongst the gullible population to jusitify European intevention in the illegal wars on Lybia, Syria and Iraq....What the gullible population do not know is that their governments were allying in all those invaded and slaughtered countries the same Sunni extremist terrorist who have slaughtered their own population in Europe, and not only, but morevoer they gave them prizes... like with the case of the UK MI6 founded/funded/trained White Helmets of HM...

Posted by: Sasha | Jan 12 2020 14:53 utc | 449

There is a lot of tin hat conspiracy theorising in this thread (1) centred on an alleged FAA ban on US flights over "Tehran", and (2) that the Ukraine flight allegedly turned back to the airport before being hit by the missile.

The nonesense over the alleged FAA ban on US flights over "Tehran" has thankfully already been dealt with by the posting of the full text of the NOTAMs: the FAA ban, which applied only to US aircraft, was for all US flights in the whole of Iran airspace and the whole of Iraq airspace. Such a ban is fully to be expected in view of recent US military actions.

As regards the alleged turn of the aircraft. The Flightradar24 site shows the actual path of the Ukraine flight up to the point the transponder signals ceased (the point where the missile hit), and compare it both with the other 9 flights from Tehran that morning, and with the previous 45 scheduled flights by PS752. It is crystal clear that the only turn the aircraft made up to the point it was hit was 100% in line with it's scheduled flight plan. The only difference that could be drawn is that in terms of angle of climb it was well below average - almost but not quite the lowest of the 45 flights - because the aircraft was way overweight and therefore had difficulty climbing even on full power. The pilot Peter Haisenko wrote in detail about that. The turn, however, (up to the end of transponder transmissions) was only about 50 degrees, and was completely in line with other flights. The turn was also completed well before the missile hit - when the missile hit it was already established on straight and level flight.

The video of the Aerospace Commander's presentation shows a very sketchy hand-drawn diagram which is not to scale, with an exaggerated turn (but still depicted as less than the claimed 90 degrees). However the Aerospace Commander's sketch and the Flightradar24 charts are wholly in agreement despite the very inaccurate sketch - this is clear from the locality map given by Flightplan24, and further down the page the elevation plan, which shows the topography in 3-D.

In the latter picture you can clearly see the mountains in the background, and two smaller pointed hills in the foreground. From the video it is clear that the air defence base was at the top of the second (further) of these small hills, obviously utilising the high ground for the defence of Tehran. Virtually all the flights shown by Flightradar24 first start to turn at exactly the same point - level with the first hill - and turn towards a path going immediately to the left of the second hill where the air defence is mounted. This means that immediately on completion of the turn, all these flights would be pointing nearly directly at the air defence base, exactly as shown on the commander's sketch (except that the latter exaggerated somewhat the angle of turn). Comparing the map with the 3-D view this can be seen quite clearly.

This does not say anything about whether there was a turn after being hit - if the missile hit one engine this would automatically cause the aircraft to turn unless compensated for by the pilots, who may have been already dead - that is irrelevant to this issue.


I do share the gut feeling that the incident may have been set-up by the US, because there are a lot of grounds for suspicion, but as far as I know there is no concrete evidence in the public domain in support of that suspicion at this stage - certainly not in terms of an unusual turn before being hit by the missile.

Grounds for the Iranians to believe they had detected cruise missiles are likely very strong - the US uses electronic warfare measures (see the link posted by Peter AU) which cause the Iranian radar to see phantom images of moving objects. Many US aircraft were moving around the outside(??) of Iranian airspace, presumably creating these phantom radar images of cruise missiles, therefore the Iranians would presumably have "seen" these suspected cruise missiles in the border regions, assumed they then penetrated Iranian territory unseen by hugging the ground through the mountains, in which case they could suddenly appear subsequently at some stage where radar can detect them.

Posted by: BM | Jan 12 2020 14:59 utc | 450

Posted by: BM | Jan 12 2020 14:59 utc | 450

As regards the alleged turn of the aircraft. The Flightradar24 site shows the actual path of the Ukraine flight up to the point the transponder signals ceased (the point where the missile hit)

The part in parentheses is an assumption.

Posted by: Norwegian | Jan 12 2020 15:07 utc | 451

@ Posted by: ADKC | Jan 12 2020 14:51 utc | 448

I said all that under the presupposition that we should speculate over the "too much coincidence" premise.

Of course that, all thing remaining as they are, Iran really took down the plane by mistake.

Posted by: vk | Jan 12 2020 15:15 utc | 452

I had thought the aircraft was headed back towards the airstrip when it crashed but just run onto this map showing the debris feild in relation to the flight path.
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/image/12249294/0x0/1536/1123/e2547a6766430da163d2c2041681d9af/Lw/iran-plane-crash-gfx-jan-10.jpg

That would also match with the Iranian military presentation.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EOAW7RhWsAEfY2n.jpg

If these are correct then the aircraft had continued turning toward the military site after it had stopped transmitting dater and was hit when flying towards the military site. It would have to have continued turning slightly to crash where it did which was approx ninety degrees to it flight path.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 12 2020 15:20 utc | 453

BM

You dont seem to think Iran has radar records to go off.. you're assuming a lot there. Isn't Peter Haisenko the one who kicked of the conspiracy theory about MH17 being machine gunned from the air.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 12 2020 15:32 utc | 454

An interesting backgrounder re Iraq/Iran some might like to read.
THe author's view is that the US's occupation of Iraq is numbered in months - not years....
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/luongo-fears-abyss-losses-iraq-becomes-mideast-battleground

Posted by: Emily | Jan 12 2020 15:48 utc | 455

BM, I was a bit hasty in my last reply. The amount of shit that went on in comment sections around MH17 because looking at pics of a panel Haisenko thought it had been hit by cannon fire bugged me at the time.

When I checked your link I found this.. yandex translation..

"Again, I point out that it is also in this view, only a possibility, in the context of probabilities. One possibility, which has no claim to be the whole truth. Since there may be big Surprises.

The B-737 had decided in the start-up phase under critical conditions is a technical Problem and the captain to an immediate return to the departure airport.

Because of the high workload in the Cockpit, the pilots have not had the time, the Tower immediately of your plans to teach. Since there are more important things to do – under normal conditions.

Because now the machine was on a course, the Iranian air defense had not been expecting, back in the direction of Tehran, was this now a unidentified flying object for the Hyper nervous air defenses an enemy anfliegendes object.

Because of the threatening proximity to the city of the time stayed out of it for a solid risk analysis, and the shooting of the object it was started."

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 12 2020 15:55 utc | 456

So ever since the U.S. murder of Soleimani, the whole situation has seemed to me to give a strong impression of being stage-managed. A pas-de-deux to give Trump cover to leave Iraq which suits Iran and several other actors just fine.

The key snag in this is that Soleimani's life seems to be a high price for theatre. So, does anyone know if perhaps he was seen below the radar as a rival or loose cannon by the Iranian regime?

Posted by: Figleaf23 | Jan 12 2020 15:59 utc | 457

US/NATO allegedly posses the technology circumstancially to bypass defensive measures of a rival state and according to local topography and selection of relative target location introduce delivery vehicles "out of thinn air" (at least relative to the efficiency of most detection tech available in operation globaly including possibly their own) that have a limited ability to deliver special payloads and then they can vanish back literally without a trace. It is the outcome of the dreaded US Navy/Air Force Tactical Reconnaissance programe. Project classification publicly aknowledged under T.R. (x-number or letter) (x-number or letter) (TR-XX for example)

John Doe | Jan 12 2020 9:32 utc | 395

This is very disconcerting information since it publicly signals that the Mossad might now be (or will soon be) owning the full blueprints of the tech I am describing above, since L.M. corporation and Pentagon fathered these programes and relative research since the 60's, at least for the Air Force. These programmes are literally part of the "Space Force".

Now is there countermeasure? Yes of course, but the ability to counter this technology appeared before they found out about the tech itself, which is a paradox. It happened at September 1947 in the Nevada desert for the US, and few months later at April of 1948 in the USSR near Kaspian Sea lake. At the heart of that research there was a a team of former Nazi research scientists, split equally between US and USSR. The scientists later relocated back to Europe.

So they were all introduced with radar tech with a very limited insight of the power this new tech possesed. It really openned up other dimensions for them, literally, and as someone would expect the Universe is teaming with life. They have opened Pandora's Box.

Posted by: Qparticle | Jan 12 2020 16:02 utc | 458

No. It is enough to prove than one can switch off the transponder from a remote place. I have told in case you fly some aircraft over Germany and switch off the transponder it would take 2 minutes till you accompanied by a fighter jet.

Posted by: Hausmeister | Jan 12 2020 10:45 utc | 402

Was this what was seen in the New York Times video pointing a camera at the dark sky in the right angle for what was going to happen in a few seconds?

Posted by: somebody | Jan 12 2020 16:05 utc | 459


@Peter AU1 453 -

combining the map with the official confession of the Iranians doesn't add up. I'm confused about the moment when the transmission of flight data ended.

The guy on the TOR decided (allegedly) 10 seconds after having tried futily to get allowance to launch the missile by himself. So he has warily observed it before already, let's say for 10 seconds. And the missile needed let's say 10 seconds to hit the plane - then from the first suspicious movements until the hit 30 seconds have passed at the minimum. But 30 seconds prior to the end of data transmission, the plane has just taken off and was on a straight path, nothing suspicious about it.

I see no other possibility than that the termination of the data transmission was NOT induced by the missile hit. More general, there probably was some ratf**king happening with the communication channels.


Posted by: mk | Jan 12 2020 16:07 utc | 460

add to
Posted by: somebody | Jan 12 2020 16:05 utc | 459

The case of MH370

Ever since Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 disappeared, a fascinated public has asked: Why can somebody in the cockpit shut off the transponder?

It turns out there are several legitimate reasons why a pilot might want to shut off this key form of communication that allows air traffic controllers to identify and track airplanes.

Authorities believe that Flight MH370’s transponder was intentionally shut off, delaying search-and-rescue efforts and helping to conceal the plane’s location — a mystery unsolved more than 10 days after the Boeing 777 vanished.

It’s rare for a pilot to turn off a transponder during flight, but occasionally there is cause.

Posted by: somebody | Jan 12 2020 16:09 utc | 461

FYI, Pepe Escobar has recently posted on his FB page an interesting scenario that reflects some of the thinking here. "IT AIN’T OVER TILL THE CYBER EXPERTS SING -- THE STRIKE ON THE UKRAINIAN BOEING MAY HAVE BEEN THE CONSEQUENCE OF A CYBER ATTACK"(caps in original)

Key point of interest relating to IL-20 (2018):

1. He quotes and links to a Russian site (translated, but notes the original Russian is more detailed) -- avia-pro.net/news

2. "The report in Russian says that if that was cyberwarfare by the Americans, the coup matches point by point the destruction of an IL-20 near Lattakia in September 2018 - which Israeli fighter planes used as a shield."

Posted by: imo | Jan 12 2020 16:11 utc | 462

Figleaf23 @457: "So, does anyone know if perhaps he was seen below the radar as a rival or loose cannon by the Iranian regime?"

Such speculations are not uncommon, but I doubt the people hyping the idea actually know much about it. It seems unlikely to me that Iran is all that divided politically, not so unlikely that they have their issues, just like anybody.

I had the distinct impression the Seulimani taunted Trump in a twit-war before the killing, which doesn't really suggest Rouhani or any of his friends really had to do much managing to make it happen, assuming they would want to, which I doubt. The General was a handy guy to have around.

Posted by: Bemildred | Jan 12 2020 16:13 utc | 463

Something appears to have happened to the plane BEFORE it was hit by a missile.

AFAICT Transmission of transponder info ends well before the missile hit (as determined by fightradar24 and the IRGC presentation).

I made this point @369 and a couple of comments after.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Jan 12 2020 16:15 utc | 464

Was cyberwarfare going on when Syrian air defense was spoofed into shooting down that Russian plane?

Posted by: lysias | Jan 12 2020 16:18 utc | 465

Anyone that hasn't seen the IRGC presentation should just stop commenting.

In that presentation, it is clear that:

- The plane had turned much more than what is shown on flightradar24 and had continued much further.

- There is no evidence for any "technical problems" on the plane - and the plane was NOT turning back to the airport. The plane made a sharp turn only after it was hit by the missile.


!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Jan 12 2020 16:20 utc | 466

Iranian general staff statement.

"2- In early hours after the missile attack [on US’ Ain al-Assad base in Iraq], the military flights of the US’ terrorist forces had increased around the country. The Iranian defence units received news of witnessing flying targets moving towards Iran’s strategic centres, and then several targets were observed in some [Iranian] radars, which incited further sensitivity at the Air Defence units.

3- Under such sensitive and critical circumstances, the Ukrainian airline’s Flight PS752 took off from Imam Khomeini Airport, and when turning around, it approached a sensitive military site of the IRGC, taking the shape and altitude of a hostile target. In such conditions, due to human error and in an unintentional move, the airplane was hit [by the Air Defence], which caused the martyrdom of a number of our compatriots and the deaths of several foreign nationals."

Full statement here.
https://ifpnews.com/iran-finally-admits-its-air-defence-unintentionally-hit-ukrainian-plane

The statement says "and when turning around". Not turning, but turning around.

But there is also this "and then several targets were observed in some [Iranian] radars,"

Iran believes the plane turned due to technical problems. US were also spoofing their radars. That leads to the thought, did the plane turn (as in start to turnback rather than standard flight path turn) or did it only appear to turn on radar. I think the crash site is evidence that the plane turned as the Iranians believe.
When the Iranians were going through sorting and stacking the debris they found the cockpit floor had been caved on by the missile blast. Fragments from the warhead would most likely have killed the pilots.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 12 2020 16:31 utc | 467

Jackrabbit 466

Thanks for putting up the link with the english subtitles. More bloody headaches because he is saying the plane didn't turn and the general staff statement which I linked to says it did turn

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 12 2020 16:41 utc | 468

[*] - Since 9/11 it has been clear to some in the systems/cybernetics fields that an emerging 'chaos' orientated global governance model was coming into play. The use of the periodic 'shock' is the key. Think defibrillation as the metaphor to keep a certain heart-beat rhythm going while chaos (systemic fibrillation) reigns -- and is even promoted in some contexts. The book to read on the theory is "Chaos: Making a New Science" by James Gleick (1987). He applies/explains the defibrillation principles. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaos:_Making_a_New_Science )

Posted by: imo | Jan 12 2020 13:12 utc | 434

Excellent!
If one does research on Benjamin Netaniahou he realise he was KEY man that appeared from nowhere between US dot com crash year and 9/11 era, and he was instrumental (like having prior knowledge of where internet economy would land after dot com crash AND that a state wide emergency like 9/11 in the US would later unfold) in to transforming Israeli bussineses in to a global cybertech start up heaven so the army would later be able to illegaly access anything relying on software, logic gates and a processor on the planet.

Posted by: Qparticle | Jan 12 2020 16:41 utc | 469

vk @452

I didn't intend to misrepresent you. I don't think you said all that? Poor editing, I'm afraid.

I intended to represent your position with an exclamation mark:

"vk @444 asks the correct question!"

Everything else is my conjecture:

"Perhaps, Iran know much more but a pre-requisite is that they must take responsibility for what they did - shooting down PS752) - and, perhaps, this is not what the US/west expected Iran to do? How would Iran know? Perhaps, Russian monitoring of US EW activity has revealed much more than the US expected? And, perhaps, Russia will not agree to any public revelation at present?"

And it was intended to be "conjecture" as indicated by the use of the word "perhaps". And it was intended to counter the tiresome whataboutery, specious argument and conjecture of "dave".

Your comment...

"Of course that, all thing remaining as they are, Iran really took down the plane by mistake."

...is not disputed, but, if they were induced by EW to take down the plane then the responsibility lies with the US. There is no proof of this, just conjecture.

And I am taking your question...

"The correct question, though, should be: what did the Iranians discover in or about that specific flight of such importance that they thought it better to publicly admit they downed it "by mistake"?"

...to the area that (imo) you are obviously pointing at!

Posted by: ADKC | Jan 12 2020 16:44 utc | 470

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 12 2020 16:31 utc | 467

They said that the unit responsible for the shoot down was added to Teheran's defence because of the threat - it is a mobile unit.

See the full presentation with subtitles as Jackrabbit recommends.

Posted by: somebody | Jan 12 2020 16:45 utc | 471

So the explanation is incompetence rather than a willful disregard for civilian life?

Iran hands another propaganda victory to the US.

Posted by: reedw | Jan 12 2020 16:52 utc | 472

add to

Posted by: somebody | Jan 12 2020 16:45 utc | 471

This here is the full uncut version:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S3e9g1oWNUA&feature=youtu.be

The rabbit's version is cut for some reason.

Posted by: somebody | Jan 12 2020 16:56 utc | 473

"Do Not Kill Your Protesters" - Trump Warns Iran As Crackdown On Growing Protests Begins

Presidential cue for color revolution snipers killing both sides?

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Jan 12 2020 16:57 utc | 474

somebody @473: The rabbit's version is cut for some reason.

No, it's the same one.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Jan 12 2020 17:00 utc | 475

@ Posted by: reedw | Jan 12 2020 16:52 utc | 472

The USA regards human life?

Posted by: vk | Jan 12 2020 17:00 utc | 476

Posted by: reedw | Jan 12 2020 16:52 utc | 472

There is now also this:


Reza Khaasteh
‏ @Khaaasteh

Important comments by Iran top security official Shamkhani:

Iran didn't seek to hide truth of #UkrainePlaneCrash. We should have first checked all possibilities [that caused the human error] including jamming, hacking of our systems, possible infiltration, and other issues

Posted by: somebody | Jan 12 2020 17:03 utc | 477


I've watched the IRGC presentation for a second time. Even facing the official Iranian position I stick to my comment 460: that the point where the plane got silent is impossibly the point of impact.

I'm looking forward to what the black boxes reveal.

Posted by: mk | Jan 12 2020 17:12 utc | 478

somebody

Tor systems are mobile. The spokesman says general staff organised the investigation. I have linked the general staff statement plus quoted a section of it @467 which I posted before seeing jackrabbits link to the presentation with subtitles. General staff statement says

"3- Under such sensitive and critical circumstances, the Ukrainian airline’s Flight PS752 took off from Imam Khomeini Airport, and when turning around, it approached a sensitive military site of the IRGC, taking the shape and altitude of a hostile target."

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 12 2020 17:12 utc | 479

Transcript of the IRGC video
https://ifpnews.com/irgc-releases-details-of-accidental-downing-of-ukrainian-plane

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 12 2020 17:26 utc | 480

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 12 2020 17:12 utc | 479

For some reason he does not say that in the subtitled version. He says "the poor guy identified it as a missile" "plane hit and then turned round".

Posted by: somebody | Jan 12 2020 17:26 utc | 481

Thanks to some legerdemain on my part that doesn't involve technical expertise, I have done a better job reading these final two pages.
I do have sympathy for the Iranians in the second to second judgments they were required to make - sadly there seems to have been no
good response to the incoming commercial plane, which was apparently already experiencing difficulties before it was shot down. Then
if you add the radar spoofing underway from both major entities on high alert (I am being very general here) we have a more complex
but similar situation possibly happening - similar to the shielding that had Syria shooting down the wrong plane as we have discussed
on a previous thread. So, the complications abound, and thanks to those folk that have been assessing this.

I will add on the shia/sunni arguments that are also surfacing that one has to be very careful in speaking in black and white terms.
There are radical and not radical elements in both. And there is no truth to the claim that Iran is engaged in world revolution on
this score. Zarif is engaged in co-ordinating his Arab neighbors in a defensive alliance that will protect them against attacks such as
the color revolutions we have clearly seen the west advocate and support destructively in these countries. And we see that the US
has immediately tried to foment something similar even after the exchange we are still attempting to understand.

But they failed, thanks be in large part to the better information from sites such as this. Thank you, b.

There will be clarifications still to come as the crash site is meticulously examined. Unfortunately we in the US are well aware of how
civilian airliners loaded with passengers and fuel become weapons in themselves. That is hugely sad and horrific.

Posted by: juliania | Jan 12 2020 17:35 utc | 482

Somebody

The IRGC General is not the General staff. The General staff conducted the investigation. There is a difference which is why I said "more headaches" in an earlier comment.

At the bottom of the general staff statement is this..
... 5- The relevant authorities at the IRGC were also instructed to appear on state TV and give detailed explanation of the incident as soon as possible.

The video is the IRGC general appearing on state television to explain to Iranians what happened.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 12 2020 17:36 utc | 483

F.Y.I The http://theasaker.is site has been down for a second day now. Might be nothing, but who knows. If it stays down it will join the syrianperspective.com site which has been down for weeks now. Not a good sign.

Posted by: Fog of War | Jan 12 2020 17:37 utc | 484

Having one of his units down the plane by mistake seems to have genuinely knocked the IRGC General. He may well be over compensating, taking too much blame on himself and IRGC which could explain the difference between what he said and what the General staff statement said.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 12 2020 17:41 utc | 485

@Posted by: Fog of War | Jan 12 2020 17:37 utc | 484

It was available until after midday UTC...

Posted by: Sasha | Jan 12 2020 17:42 utc | 486

Apologies for that messed up post, but at least it can be read.

Today in the old calendar Christmas cycle, the importance of Joseph's action in taking his new family out of Israel and into Egypt for safety is the liturgical theme. A time to give prayers for those caught up in the tragedy of this time as well as the innocents sacrificed then as an adjunct to the birth of Christ.

Posted by: juliania | Jan 12 2020 17:45 utc | 487

Peter AU1

"Turning around" due to technical difficulties/blow engine was just the initial speculation about what caused the crash.

There was no communication from the pilots at all. If they were turning back, wouldn't they tell the tower asap?

The IRGC presentation shows the location of the missile hit and and the crash site. It's clear that the "turn" happened AFTER the missile hit and the pilots almost certainly had no control after the missile hit.

<> <> <> <> <> <>

Why is everyone ignoring my observation that something stopped the transmission of transponder info WELL BEFORE the missile strike?

The IRGC presentation shows the plane going MUCH FURTHER before being hit than the flightradar24 track (info from the transponder).

Just compare the IRGC track with the flightradar24 track.

There could've been jamming or a bomb on board.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Jan 12 2020 17:45 utc | 488

jr - do they know this for a fact? - "something stopped the transmission of transponder info WELL BEFORE the missile strike."

Posted by: james | Jan 12 2020 17:48 utc | 489

@484 Fog of War

I have had no problem accessing thesaker.is in the last few days. Problem is on your end.

He just put out a transcript of an Iranian Major General's statement re: the downed 737.

Posted by: NemesisCalling | Jan 12 2020 17:50 utc | 490

Back in the thread somewhere vk I think asked what caused the Iran government to say the plane had been shot down after denying this for several days. It was only when going through the wreckage with the Ukrainians that they found clear evidence the plane had been shot down, and that according to Ukraine was in the last of the debris inspected.

But the IRGC gives the answer at the start of his television explanation of what happened.

"" When I made sure that has happened, I really wished I had died and wouldn’t see that happening. We sacrificed our lives for the people for a lifetime, and today we trade our reputation with God Almighty by appearing in front of the cameras to explain under such difficult circumstances."

Lose his reputation by appearing on television and explain what happened, or keep his reputation and lose god.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 12 2020 17:52 utc | 491

james @489

Just compare the two tracks.

IRGC track.

Flightradar24 track

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Jan 12 2020 17:52 utc | 492

Peter AU1 @491 Lose his reputation by appearing on television ...

I think "trade our reputation with God Almighty" is probably idiom for doing the right thing regardless of the consequences.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Jan 12 2020 17:57 utc | 493


Jackrabbit, at least I am not ignoring you. I'm saying the same.

Posted by: mk | Jan 12 2020 18:00 utc | 494

@Jackrabbit @488

I'm not ignoring your observation that "something stopped the transmission of transponder". Quite the opposite - I'm checking this thread and elsewhere for other similar confirmation every few minutes. If (and only if) the transponder was shut down (turned off remotely, or jammed or otherwise interfered with), and if it was just the transponder on this plane (ie, not widespread electronic warfare that could be reasonably expected at times like this), then we have another can of worms to deal with, and the Iranians won't be ones under the gun.

Posted by: retiredmecheng | Jan 12 2020 18:00 utc | 495

Sorry guys...

... my frustration stems from my having put this info up last night.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Jan 12 2020 18:05 utc | 496

jr - i see what you are saying... thanks...

Posted by: james | Jan 12 2020 18:05 utc | 497

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Jan 12 2020 17:57 utc | 493

I think the Christian version is "I swear by god ..."

Posted by: somebody | Jan 12 2020 18:08 utc | 498

Jackrabbit 488
I have been comparing the scale on the Flight Radar map and the IRGC general's map and the plane has obviously traveled quite a distance past where flight radar lost track of it before being hit. I believe BM is wrong in the IRGC map being just roughly drawn and not to scale. Airport first turn and crash site are all in same position compared to landmarks. IRGC map shows the flight path continuing a short distance further in the direction of the first turn, which is the direction other flights took, but then it does another turn to the right and continues about the same distance on that line before it is hit. That second turn pointed the aircraft neely directly at the Tor position.

"The IRGC presentation shows the location of the missile hit and and the crash site. It's clear that the "turn" happened AFTER the missile hit and the pilots almost certainly had no control after the missile hit."

As I put in my comment to somebody. It is the general staff that conducted the investigation and the ordered the IRGC to appear on television and explained what happened.
The General staff have also put out a statement on the results of the investigation. They differ slightly and say that the aircraft was hit when it turned back.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 12 2020 18:08 utc | 499

Peter AU1 @499:

I believe BM is wrong in the IRGC map being just roughly drawn and not to scale.

I agree.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Jan 12 2020 18:14 utc | 500

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