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The MoA Year In Review
The big stories of 2019 which Moon of Alabama covered were:
- The vindication of Donald Trump by the Mueller and Horowitz 'Russiagate' investigations. The Democrats, driven by the security state, then continued their coup attempt against Trump by impeaching him over 'Ukrainegate'.
- The slow but continuing retreat of the U.S. from the Middle East demonstrated by its lack of reaction even after the attack on the Saudi oil installations and the shooting down of a large U.S. drone by Iran.
My predictions on these issue for next year are:
- The unreasonable campaign against Trump will hurt the Democrats in the 2020 elections. Unless something unforeseeable happens Trump will be reelected.
- The U.S. will pull its troops out of Iraq and Syria.
- The MAX will not be allowed back into the air unless Boeing ditches MCAS and finds a better way to make the plane certifiable.
- Mainstream media have suppressed all news about the OPCW scandal. This will only change if major new evidence comes to light.
May all of you have a happy new year!
Congratulations from me too!
Especially your work on OPCW! Even a MSM “alpha journalist” like Hitchens was forced to give props to you reporting those otherwise not reported information about the hospital “victims” being there even before the alleged attack!
Sadly i dont see the US pulling out of Iraq. The US is wanted there by a huge part of the Iraqis (As counterweight to Iran), not only by Sunni, but also by many Shias.
Even a totally pro-Shia reporter like Elijah reports that. So with that large Anti-Iran sentiment the US will not be forced to leave until Iraqis from ALL confessions, tribes, political factions and other groups agree to force the US out.(I dont claim the Anti-Iran sentiment in Iraq is as valid as those people think, and it certainly is fueled by Gulf state and US propaganda, but it is a fact this sentiment is prevalent).
As Elijah writes, Iraqis are “emotional”, in this context meaning easily manipulated by (anti-Iran) propaganda/fake news, and just like the protests/riots without coherent political plan, and realistic objectives.
Also Iran was pretty crude and Qassem Soleimani not as subtle as needed when they tried to use their soft power in the political struggle, opposed to the gulf states and the US. At least this is the prevailing view of the Iraqis, which makes it real for them, no matter how valid it is or not is.
Many Iraqis felt offended by this, and they now have a very strong patriotism, which fueled the riots and attacks on Iranian linked targets. They felt their honor was attacked, and they acted as their culture and society demands when someone offends you: They hit back, violently.
That the US has this time not used their power as much as before to influence Iraq in the elections, likely made Iran’s use of soft power more visible, and therefore led many Iraqis to see the US and gulf states as the smaller evil.
This unreflected, emotional and often violent patriotism now seems to be universally for most Iraqis. Even the Shia religious leaders agitate for a sovereign Iraqis, without any interference from Iran or US. So the US clearly won the battle here for the moment in a hybrid war/soft power view concerning the public image of Iran in Iraq.
Only thing that could turn this around fast would be a public outcry against the US.
If the current air strikes are enough? i dont think so. The US can claim they only attacked Iran linked soldiers, even though they are now part of the Iraqi army command strucure, and many Iraqis have no problem with that.
And as Iraqis are sick of war, understandable, they also dont want those Iranian linked forces to use Iraq as a battleground against the US. And the multiple attacks in the last weeks against US installations to which the US did not react militarily, are seen by many Iraqis as just that; Iran misusing Iraq as a proxy battleground to fight the US. They think the US had to react sometime.
Then there is Al Sadr, who is rumored to be the main man who instigated the riots against Iranian targets with his forces. But he may change sides and now turn (again) against the US, who knows.
All in all, the US now seems less interested to influence politics in Iraq directly like the US always did before. Trump seems to really want to get out of the MENA and focus on China etc.
But Iran would have to act more cleverly with a soft power approach to turn the Iraqis currently bad image of Iran into something more positive and leverage that situation where the US is less focused on the Middle East.
Then, and only then, if the Iraqis would not see Iran as a threat to sovereignty anymore, would they force the US out of Iraq.
But all that may not matter anyway, as Iraq is on a downward spiral, and the whole political system reeks of Weimar.
Democracy is seen by the majority now as the rule of the corrupt. The protesters rallied for the Shia general (connected to the US) who (in their mind) saved them from Isis to take over and clean the corrupt politicians out. Just like Saddam was a hope for most Iraqis back in the day.
An “enlightened despot”.
And while it may send shivers down many of our western political minds who believe that our ideology is universal to humanity(Social Democracy, Neo Liberal Democracy, Socialism, ..):
Maybe it is the only realistic option; The best realistic result based on realpolitik.
The Middle East is not Western Europe. Democracy does work not in tribalism, islamic tradition and law, sectarianism, without any real civil society whatsoever.
The only options are living like the last 1500 years politically; Anarchic and tribalistic. Or with a central state hold together by a ruthless despot that gouverns respecting popular demands.
Western Democracy in Iraq is an imperialistic project doomed to fail. As sad as this may be for many of us westerners.
Posted by: DontBelieveEitherPr. | Dec 31 2019 22:10 utc | 49
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