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Why Lebanon And Iraq Are At The Brink Of Further Strife
Today the Prime Minister of Lebanon Saad Hariri resigned after -at times- violent protests. In Iraq the gadfly cleric Moqtada Sadr joined protesters after previous protests in Iraq also led to violence. In both countries at least some protesters demand the resignation of their governments. While the demonstrations in both countries are about local economic and political issues there are foreign actors involved who want to use them to achieve their own goals.
Elijah J. Magnier @ejmalrai – 12:37 UTC · Oct 29, 2019
#Lebanon and #Iraq protestors hitting the "Axis of the Resistance" stability in these two countries and pushing Prime Ministers in both countries to resign and lead the country towards instability.
#US and #SaudiArabia has lost #Syria but are still fighting in other theatres.
On October 6 we warned of these 'regime change' attempts : The U.S. Led Coup Attempt In Iraq May Further Weaken That Country
During the last five days there have been protest all over the south of Iraq where the majority of the people are Shia. The protest escalated within a few days into shootings with over a hundred killed. In several cities party and government offices were burned and various groups hustle to take a position in the "leaderless" movement.
There are legitimate reasons for protests. The majority of the people in Iraq are younger than 20. The people have little chance of finding a job. The state is weak and many of its actors are corrupt. Services the state is supposed to provide don't get delivered. Electricity and water supply is often sparse.
But those are not the reasons why the protests immediately escalated into violence.
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The protests are part of the conflict between the U.S., its Saudi proxies, and Iran.
The immediate aim is to bring down the government under Prime Minister Adel Abdel Mahdi who strove to stay neutral in the conflict between the U.S./Israel/Saudi Arabia and Iran.
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New U.S. sanctions against Lebanese banks who allegedly support Hizbullah are likewise part of U.S./Israeli/Saudi effort to squeeze Iran and its proxies …
An imminent breakdown of the very weak economy of Lebanon, partially caused by U.S. sanctions against Lebanese banks and the end of traditional Saudi subsidies to Lebanon, also led to protests and today to the resignation of Prime Minister Saad Hariri. He will now lead a caretaker government which will have too little power to change anything.
Both, Iraq and Lebanon, have ethnic-sectarian systems that are finely balanced. The warlords or clan leaders of the various groups use the state for their own enrichment. Providing services for the whole country mean nothing to them. All they want is more money that allows them to run a system of patronage and clientilism for their immediate followers which keep them in their positions.
In Iraq and Lebanon the positions in the parliament and government are decided (more or less) by group quotas that are difficult to change. Both countries would be better off under universal constitutions that would do away with any quotas and specific positions for special groups.
But the Christian groups in Lebanon would lose out as the Christian share of the population has decreased over time. In Iraq the currently strong Kurdish and Sunni positions would lose power to the Shia majority. These groups would rather fight than give up on their privileges.
The current political systems make any change extremely difficult. The demonstrators are asking for the corrupt politicians to leave. But even if the governments resign and call for new elections an adherence to the election laws and constitutions would only recreate a similar situation.
To call for resignations is thereby not the way to achieve change.
The best strategy for the legitimate protesters is to press the current governments for reform. The governments in Iraq and in Lebanon have both already agreed to make certain changes. The protesters should accept those and pull back. If the politicians do not stick to those commitments the protesters can always go back into the streets and demand more.
Unfortunately there are external actors with lots of money who want to prevent that. They want to throw both countries into utter chaos or even civil wars because they hope that it will weaken those factions that have good relations with Iran.
In Lebanon there was some violence by followers of the Shia Amal movement against a protesters tent camp. 'Western' media falsely attributed the violence to Hizbullah. In Iraq the guards of a government building in Karbala shot at protesters who tried to breach its gate. Some 'western' media falsely alleged that those shooters were Iranians.
But external actors have made such bids before only to fail to achieve the wanted results. The outcome of any violent strife now will – in the end – likely be a different one than they dream of. In both countries it is likely that, after a bloody and chaotic period, the groups that will come out on the top will be the very once that the Saudis, the U.S., and Israel want to push down.
There would also be a lot of collateral damage and both countries would be further weakened. That is why the Iran aligned groups are currently trying to avoid to react to the obvious provocations against them. But with blood flowing in the streets it will be difficult to adhere to that position for much longer.
To call for resignations is thereby not the way to achieve change. <= It was just a few months ago that Hariri spent a few weeks in detention in Saudi Arabia and much of his family is stil subject to abuse by MBS.(James @28 remembered also). any chance Hariris' untimely, and inopportune resignation is an imposed part of the fake resistance scheme?
How does getting Sa'd al-Hariri to resign accelerate interest of US/Israeli?
1. by: Laguerre @ 16, <= I would answer hariri is well respected and generally fair, there is no room for fairness in a regime change and takeover opperation, further MBS does not trust Hariri? <=supported
2. by Karlof1 @ 10 "Hariri will be out as PM as he has never put Lebanon first and instead acts as the Saudi agent he is a traitor to Lebanon".
3. by murgen24 @17 "MBS cut the fund to lebanon since Hairy do not lick his shoes. So Lebanon is now on its own, .. there is services, no industry to provide a sustainable life. Yeah, Hezbollah has 130 000 missiles, how digest is it a missile in stock ?
4. by Sasha @ 19 outing inefficient playboy, Israeli collaborator Hariri is useful...
5. by James @ 28 clear message Hariri resignation, was a facilitation to form a new government..
Turning Lebanon into a Syria is what will come next. ..the .. campaign to remake the M.E. and redraw it's borders will not be so easily put back on the shelf. Coastal Syria and Lebanon share the same culture. A new country will be fashioned, along the coast, but it w\n\b permitted to hold the interior and control Syria's hydrocarbon wealth, which is considerable and would make Grand Liban or Greater Syria a serious threat to Israel and more specifically to Jerusalem, capital-to-be of the Zionist New World Order. As I said, this will not be permitted, by Zionist Russia least of all, so don't hold your breath waiting for a saviour. Zedd @ 30 <=said it best.. the opportunity for the ME nations to divert encroachments against their sovereign soils may be disappearing?
Karlof1 @ 34 says divide and conquer originated by the Floretine Niccolo Machiaveli, in the Prince, Sasha @ 5 says, too much organization.. @ 8 "the protesters d\n target the Hariris nor the homes of corrupts...but instead Hezbollah´s weapons... and what has all the traces of a intent of coup d´etat by Samir Geagea. Psychohistorian @ 3 explains that financial manipulation is a weapon which deflates quality of life to ground zero but d\n id enough about it to be useful.. please help us what do you mean? Peter AU 1 @6 explains that propaganda is a mind control weapon mCw, access control is accomplished by law and rules, and spying collects personal data sufficient to tract, contain, setup and manipulate, inhibit or promote the behaviors of every single individual within the controlled society, then there is the old stand by, as Deschutes @ 36 just posted, Arrest, torture and worse fates to those who fail to conform.. (<= collectively I call these techniques= soft weapons). While soft weapons are ordinarily used to contain, control and keep suppressed <=domestic governed humans, they are often also used by militarises engaged in foreign regime change activities. Soft weapons are used on both sides of the equation at once, to prepare the domestic population for the domestic spending and deployment of domestic resources to foreign places, in the coming regime change in the foreign target, and in the take over place; to induce population unrest of a nature that most legitimate sitting governments are near powerless to correct. When soft weapons (financial, MCW, and 24/7 spying) are used to target regime change the user selects his targets to impose "inhumane and out of control local conditions" of the type that develop and incite legitimate local risings. Historically, planted within legitimate local rising groups are agents of the outsiders who tolerate the local rising elements until opportune moments favor take control by the outside invaders. At that point the legitimate local rising elements can not believe their eyes, as the intensity, and the direction of the rising is no longer within their control, suddenly hidden elements in state and think tank institutions come to life in support of the rising. The legitimate elements often discover they have been used to help the instigators accomplish take over with consequences far different than the original dissidents intended..
Lenin and banker backed Bolsheviks used soft weapons to position the local propaganda so that they could accomplish their October Revolution in 1919. Soft weapons often employ advanced, latest technology and often use authority established by those embedded puppets who have relations with powerful domestic and international institutions to control and to suppress the governed. Soft weapons have been under development for centuries. Militarises and intelligence services since 1919 have been developing the targeting and effectiveness of these soft weapons.
Thanks karlof1 @ 33 for exposing as a possible false narrative that the Iraqi government killed its protesters. Establish the narrative fails, but what about the seven other propaganda debunkers=> 2) they wrong: we right, 3. cherry pick the facts, 4. ignore stuff, 5. blame the victim, 6. make up stuff, 7. attack challenge, 8. repeat the false narrative until hell freezes over I think I also saw a similar report on consortium news.
Posted by: snake | Oct 30 2019 10:45 utc | 38
@Posted by: Don Wiscacho | Oct 30 2019 15:16 utc | 42
The picture you paint of Lebanon differs quite a bit from what I could witness four years ago when I visited the country.
For what I could witness, people in Lebanon is quite conservative in attire, as happens in every Arab or muslim country I have visited ( which are almost all except Iraq and Afghanistán…)
It is true that in the Christian neighborhoods you can find a girl dressed in a shiny beaded tank top, but this is, in the best case, one person amongst the many modern bars and pubs surrounding the street, and even this isolated case was a thin girl who, in any case, was showing the belly, but not most of her breasts out, as I have witnessed doing some big breasted girls in the videos, something that would call the attention even in Europe…
Then, ambiance in these modern bars and pubs is quite classy and quiet, without any outburst at all, people talking to each other peacefully ( as it is the ancient custom in the Midle East for spare time…), but definitely they do not dance neither in the bars/pubs, nor in the streets…as you could find it happens in Spain, for example.
Rich people running through Le Corniche go in shorts, but in t-shirt, even dfor this sweatting activity and in the middle of summer canicle….
For what Tripoli and Tyre is respected, Tripoli is an even more conservative city than Beirut, far more, moreover Sunni ( I would say integrist…), and where there is more poverty than in Beirut, if you do not count the rich who live in their neighborhoods and definitely were not making show off of their money in the streets, nor definitely dancing almost nake there at the time I visited, with ISIS type folks with their eyes like out of their orbits coming in into the city for funerals in ancient mosquees…The Saint Gilles Citadel was at the time occupied by Lebanese Army…due possible nfiltration of ISIS thugs…The ambiance of a party it was not…Of course, people were trying to live their lives the best and normal way they could, but you could say el horno no estaba para bollos, that we say around here…tension was palpable…
Tyre is a Hezbollah stronghold, and thus, it is quite difficult to find there the girls in tank tops you can find in Beirut.
Anyway, anywhere in Lebanon I could remember finding young guys in bermuda ( as i could watch so many in the protests, but this seem to be the “uniform of current orchestrated protests, in Hong Kong, Barcelona, Iraq, …and also in Lebanon…as previously was in Maidan…) men in Lebanon dress quite conservative, as happens in every Arab country ( although Mediterranean, this is not defintely Tel Aviv…) and girls or women who dress tank tops are a minority…even amongst Christians…
That in Lebanon they like a party more than anything else, that´s for sure ( as happens with all the Arabs…), but may be that it is left for their intimacy celebrations ( as happens in all Arab and muslim countries…), since that is in no way obvious in the streets, and definitely there is no money to spend in that. Disc jockeys, musicians, performers and belly dancers we have seen in the videos spreaded of these protests are not there for altruism, they have been payed by somebody…People in Lebanon have not definitely that money to hire them.. ( and we know, from the organized concert in Cucutá by the owner of Virgin, that these poeple do not move if not for money…You see that there are not concerts of Los Juanes, Alejandro Sanz, Carlos Vives or Miguel Bosé en Chile…it´s only anonymous people with theri instruments chanting their resistance poets and bards many assasinated in the past, not without being left wthout their tongues before…)
Even rich people when they go out, they do to have a drink or have dinner in modern pubs and good restaurants, but they do not organize public parties…if not because of classism implied….In Lebanon, even the beaches are private, and people having sunbaths there are not visible for the rest of passerbies….one more detail on their conservatism…
With respect to electricity cuts, I did not suffer any during my stay, nor suffered any water cut either, and garbage was being picked up timely ( I have suffered quite worst odors in Eurpean cities with not such hot weather…) Most touristic locations like Byblos are like city boutiques, with everything so cuttely placed with exquisite taste and no paper or waste on the pavement…But it is that, as I have been able to witness, Arabs, in general, are not dirty people, they do not use to throw waste in the streets, the poorest the could be, there is always something dignifying in these peoples…This is why sooner or later they will liberate themselves all, like the Houthies are doing, as that is their nature…
Posted by: Sasha | Oct 30 2019 21:23 utc | 52
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