@ Erlindur 101
First, you correctly quote Article I not Article II as I said.
The Congress shall have Power To … To declare War…Is that all?
No, as I said the War Powers Act enables the president to attack another country but he must report it later.
the president is the Commander in Chief
Article II says the president commands the forces called into service. Some US civilian people claim that he’s “our commander in chief” but that’s baloney. As comander, Trump has the right to change troop deployments in Syria. That’s not a function of the Congress according to the Constitution.
All US government members, top to bottom, take an oath to defend the Consttution when beginning employment. As you indicate, that doesn’t happen, and that’s because the system has been totally corrupted. Starting wars is noncompliant with the UN Charter, for example, which the US government ought to be compliant with, but isn’t.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Oct 9 2019 23:16 utc | 103

Erlindur @105
I don’t know what scenarios you’re thinking of, but I highly doubt US Congress declaring war unless asked to.
FYI See my next comment for my guess as to what’s up.

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Oct 9 2019 23:37 utc | 105

it is possible to ask OT questions on the MOA open thread… wonder why some don’t do that, or why many regulars respond to OT questions? please don’t respond to this.. get people to use the open thread instead…

Posted by: james | Oct 9 2019 23:49 utc | 107

Erlindur @105–
And to further confuse you, according to the UN Charter which the USA is legally obliged to obey thanks to the Supremacy Clause within its Constitution, the only time the USA can legally enter into war with another nation is in immediate self-defense; otherwise, the USA must be allowed by the UNSC to wage war–anything other than within those narrow rationales constitutes the waging of Aggressive War–the War Hitler and Tojo waged in WW2. Indeed, the War Powers Act cited by Don Bacon likely violates the UN Charter, although that question has yet to be adjudicated. If you recall, the missile strikes engaged in by the Outlaw US Empire and its vassals in wake of the false flag gas attacks in 2017 & 2018 were both declared to be War Crimes because they represented the waging of Aggressive War (both these strikes would provide excellent grounds to impeach Trump but will never be used because of the president set).
Indeed, do read the UN Charter and you’ll discover that the entire unilateral sanctions regime imposed by the Outlaw US Empire is illegal under international law and is unconstitutional under US law because of the Supremacy Clause, which has yet to be invoked in an attempt to calla halt to the many illegal and unconstitutional activities of the US federal government.
To provide you with further context into what stands as the grounds for the Outlaw US Empire’s reasoning for it illegalities, I offer this essay detailing the Empire’s historical approach to the question of national sovereignty (which is THE primary facet within the UN Charter) and how it’s evolved. A few more bits: George Washington in his Farewell Address admonished those who would follow him to avoid “entangling alliances” and thus preserve the ability to act unilaterally, which was one of the main arguments used against Woodrow Wilson’s Internationalism, 14 Points, ratification of the Versailles Treaty and subsequently entering the League of Nations. Furthermore, during the 1932 presidential campaign, FDR refrained in a strongly stoic manner to the question of his being an Internationalist or an Isolationist because his past as Assistant Secretary of the Navy showed quite well that he adhered to the Imperialist/Internationalist ideology of the Mahan/Mackinder school of geopolitics.
And there’s no such thing as a stupid or silly question–if you don’t know, the only alternatives are to ask, try to discover the answer for yourself, or remain ignorant. By asking, you prove you don’t want to remain the latter!

Posted by: karlof1 | Oct 10 2019 0:01 utc | 109

This reminds me of the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait… Sadam thought the US was on board and anyway they were allies against Iran, but the US took it the wrong way.

Posted by: s | Oct 10 2019 0:42 utc | 111

My comment to Willy B.’s post at SST:

IMO the Turkish operation is just cover for freeing the ISIS prisoners so they can fight SAA’s coming attempt to re-take the oil fields.
USA probably has some agreement with Turkey to safeguard the Kurds. But the hair-on-fire talk of the “betrayal” of the Kurds, along with the revival of ISIS sets up Trump’s eventual cave-in to future neocon demands.
Naturally, the above analysis is INCONCEIVABLE to those who are invested in the fake media narratives surrounding the ‘Trump Show’. We are encouraged to love or hate Trump and thus invest ourselves in the ‘Show’. Hehe, the kayfabe is certainly entertaining at times.
PS great analysis Willy!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Oct 10 2019 0:58 utc | 113

I remember like it was yesterday when Syrian government offered Kurds some autonomy and peace if they rejoined the Syrian Republic. The Kurds (or more likely their US puppet leaders) rejected the sensible offer. The Kurds will possibly be soon remembered in history as an extinct ethnic group that took some of the stupidest decisions in history. At this point regardless what happens, the Kurds will end up the losers.

Posted by: Comandante | Oct 10 2019 1:48 utc | 115

The kurds are morons but lets be fair. The Kurds would have been bombed by the US if they allied themselves with the SAA and there were times in this conflict during which the SAA was unable to assist the kurds against ISIS/AlQaida.
The Kurds should kiss and make up with Assad but the reality is that really only Russia can save them. Russia can reign in Erdogan and Russia can protect the Kurds from US air strikes should the kurds get too friendly with the SAA for US tastes.
The kurds are being taught a lesson. The net is this: rejoin syria, perish or live under jihadists. Sadly they didnt get it the first time around in afrin. Im not sure they they’ll accept it this time either.

Posted by: Alaric | Oct 10 2019 2:22 utc | 117

@ Jackrabbit # 117 about no fly zones
I posit that Russia/Syria would be more able to enforce a no fly zone than the US/empire but that supposition is based on what I have read here and elsewhere of the current capabilities of both sides.
I am more inclined to think after following this thread and the world recently that this current push is about the Syrian oil fields with less regard for the Kurds who are/will be considered collateral damage by both sides.
The Civilization war we are in continues to be all about public/private finance and the ongoing control of resources and hence nation states

Posted by: psychohistorian | Oct 10 2019 3:04 utc | 119

psychohistorian @120:

I posit that Russia/Syria would be more able to enforce a no fly zone than the US/empire but that supposition is based on what I have read here and elsewhere …

My speculation is that USA wants to deny Syria’s capture and use of the oil fields. “Protecting the Kurds” is merely a pretense.
Note also that Kurds have specifically asked USA for protection while they are merely contemplating talks with SAA/Russia.
Also, comments that you’ve previously read about a NFZ probably pertain to a NFZ over all of Syria. This was proposed by Hillary and others before and just after Russia entered the Syrian conflict with the pretense that USA should protect the Syrian people from Assad. Russia made it clear that such a NFZ would be unacceptable.
USA/SDF has controlled northeast Syria for quite a while and could quickly implement a NFZ to “protect the Kurds” which Syria and Russia would find difficult, if not impossible, to block without starting WWIII.

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Oct 10 2019 3:40 utc | 121

Haassaan @121–
There already is a de facto no-fly zone in Eastern Syria. Neither Russian nor Syrian Airforce operate there except when coordinated with USA. If Russian or Syrian Airforces flew combat missions over Eastern Syria they would be warned off, and if the attacks continued, would be attacked themselves.
Your assertion is just that as are the rest. Facts would be helpful. East of the Euphrates as part of the overall management of the war had a lower priority once Deir Ezzor was freed as was admitted by SAA, Syrian politicians and the Russian military. Its time has now come.

Posted by: karlof1 | Oct 10 2019 4:06 utc | 123

Haassaan @121
Re: “The decimation inflicted about Russia’s Wagner Mercenary group and local tribal militias by an over-the-top USA artillery/airstrike was meant to serve as a warning.”
Some Russians died, but the story is likely way different as originally proposed and promulgated.
See: The Truth About the Russian Deaths in Syria
Hundreds of Russian soldiers are alleged to have died in U.S. airstrikes at the beginning of February. Reporting by DER SPIEGEL shows that events were likely very different.
3-2-18
Initially, the United States military announced on Feb. 8 it had attacked “pro-regime forces” of Bashar Assad’s southeast of the city Deir ez-Zor to ward off an attack on a base belonging to the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), who are allies of the Americans. The U.S. said the pro-Assad forces had attacked the SDF base with tanks and mortars. The U.S. fired back in response, claiming to have killed “more than 100” of the fighters in what was described as an act of self-defense.
. . .
A team of DER SPIEGEL journalists spent two weeks interviewing both witnesses to, and participants in, the battle. The team also spoke to a staff member at the only hospital in Deir ez-Zor as well as an employee of the local military airport in an attempt to get a clear picture of exactly what took place during the three-day battle.
The accounts largely corroborate each other and the image of events that emerges is one that contradicts what has been reported in the Russian and international media.
. . .
It was primarily the second night-time attack from the village of Tabiya that triggered the American paroxysm, said two men belonging to the al-Baqir militia of the Bekara tribe.
. . .
Among those stationed in Tabiya was a small contingent of Russian mercenaries. But the two militia sources said they did not participate in the fighting. Still, they said, 10 to 20 of them did in fact lose their lives. They said a total of more than 200 of the attackers died, including around 80 Syrian soldiers with the 4th Division, around 100 Iraqis and Afghans and around 70 tribal fighters, mostly with the al-Baqir militia.
It all happened at night, and the situation became extremely complicated when the fighters from Tabiya entered the fray. A staffer at the only major hospital in Deir ez-Zor would later say that around a dozen Russian bodies were delivered. An employee at the airport, meanwhile, later witnessed the delivery of the bodies in two Toyota pickup trucks to a waiting Russian transport aircraft that then flew to Qamishli, an airport near the Syrian border in the north.
In the days that followed, the identities of the Russians killed would be revealed — first of six and ultimately nine. Eight had been verified by the Conflict Intelligence Team, a Russian investigative platform, and another was released by the radio station Echo Moscow. All were employees of the private mercenary company Evro Polis, which is often referred to by the nom du guerre of its head: “Wagner.”
. . .
The situation on the ground between Khusham and Tabiya on the eastern bank of the Euphrates, described by a half dozen witnesses and people who were party to the events, does not confirm Russian mercenary participation in the attack or even that they joined the fighting at all. Ahmad Ramadan, the journalist who founded the Euphrates Post and has since emigrated to Turkey, comes from Tabiya. One of his contacts fights for the al-Baqir militia and took the video at the site of the bombings. “If it had been a Russian attack, with many Russian dead, we would have reported about it,” he said. “But it wasn’t. The Russians in Tabiya just had the bad luck of being in the wrong place at the wrong time.”

Posted by: pogohere | Oct 10 2019 4:09 utc | 125

oh wait! i must have it too, because i agree with trumps idea to leave syria, even if it is a switch and bait! i am a putin bot!!

Posted by: james | Oct 10 2019 4:14 utc | 127

hey! hilary clinton said it so it must be true! she is even more reliable then pompeo!
““Let us be clear: The president has sided with authoritarian leaders of Turkey and Russia over our loyal allies and America’s own interests. His decision is a sickening betrayal both of the Kurds and his oath of office,” Clinton tweeted.”

Posted by: james | Oct 10 2019 4:16 utc | 129

karlof1 @124
Yes, just speculating like everybody else, acquiring facts to support the speculation is way above my pay grade.
I believe both the Eastern Syrian oilfields and the Raqqa Dam were and are very high priority, in the long-term the Syrian State cannot function without both. The Americans got to both first.
Higher priority was preventing the complete collapse of the Syrian State, and that required limited resources be spend removing threats closer to Damascus and core urban areas.
ISIS or SDF controlled areas would be a piece of cake for the SAA and Russian airforce if it weren’t for the USA preventing access to those areas.
I am not sure how they intend to remove those forces, but trying to do so by force would currently be a big mistake.

Posted by: Haassaan | Oct 10 2019 4:21 utc | 131

Ah, shoot, sorry for the double-post.

Posted by: Haassaan | Oct 10 2019 4:23 utc | 133

pogohere @126
I agree with that account, and believe at most two-dozen Russian Mercenaries (not soldiers) died along with a couple hundred local tribal militia men. I do believe the attack was intentional on the part of USA and was meant to serve warning that SAA or Russian military action on the east side of the Euphrates would be met with force.

Posted by: Haassaan | Oct 10 2019 4:28 utc | 135

I only have a limited interest in all this being as 99% of the assertions in this thread are more speculative than factual and none of us have the slightest idea of any of the myriad players’ actual priorities, altho it does appear to me that all the Turkish/kurd huffing and puffing provides an ideal time for someone to ‘do a Ansar Allah’ on the Deir Ezzor oilfields.
Yep it could cause major ructions (depending on whether any seppos got wasted) and get Orange Idjit hooting about the sanctity of amerikan lives, but it would also highlight that amerika is ‘protecting’ oilfields which are actually the property of the Syrian state; Orangy, just like Oblamblam, shrub and cigar bill who went before, is perfectly happy to spend amerikan lives stealing hydrocarbons for corporations.
Something which could: A/reduce the risk of retaliation, and B/ Make Syria’s aim of getting ’em back a helluva a lot easier.

Posted by: A User | Oct 10 2019 4:45 utc | 137

Latest news apparently is that a KFC outlet has opened in Idlib.
See the video here.
That little girl with the blank expression being fed chips must be the same little girl who has appeared in numerous White Helmets videos being pulled out of rubble she constantly kept disappearing into – that must explain the dead stare in her eyes and the fact that she is the only token female in the film clip.
It seems that this outlet is not exactly halal over at KFC headquarters.
KFC Idlib have a Facebook page as well – please Unlike!

Posted by: Jen | Oct 10 2019 4:52 utc | 139

The people in the Kremlin are serious professionals, not at all like the amateurs in DC, so there’s no laughter, just a nod as many potential future moves are contemplated. The thought that pleasure is somehow derived by people like Putin, Lavrov and Shoigu as they perform geopolitical gymnastics can only arise in the mind of a venal person, like that of Pompeo or Albright, who do take pleasure from the number they kill via their policy decisions. There’re fundamental reasons including their moral bases why the USA is an Outlaw Empire while Russia is a normal law abiding nation, and those distinctions are known by the majority of the world’s nations.

Posted by: karlof1 | Oct 10 2019 4:58 utc | 141

Elijah has a new piece up and some interesting info and perspectives that I didn’t know or haven’t thought about, of course…
the arrogance of the Kurds to expect the syrian gov’t to just hand over the oil fields to them is rather, uh, breath taking (remember what happened to the Iraqi, eh… One day they had the oil fields near Kirkuk, and the next day they didn’t)
https://ejmagnier.com/2019/10/09/us-forces-will-not-likely-withdraw-from-syria-this-year/
“…What is surprising is the fact that, in the circumstances, the Kurdish leadership has not lowered their expectations realistically in negotiations with the government of Damascus concerning their request to form a federation in the country. The Kurds have asked Damascus, in the presence of Russian and Iranian negotiators, to allow them to retain control over the very rich oil and gas fields they occupy in a bit less than a quarter of Syrian territory. Furthermore, the Kurds have asked that they be given full control of the enclave on the borders with Turkey without any Syrian Army presence or activity!…”

Posted by: michaelj72 | Oct 10 2019 5:32 utc | 143

Trump has set a trap to Erdogan.
Who benefits from a weakened Turkey?
– Israel that sees Turkey as a powerful and potential enemy because of his strong position on palestinians
– Saudi Arabia who sees Turkey as a competitor for the sunnis leadership
– Syria that wants Turkey out of Syria
– The USA that wants Turkey to stop cozing up with Iran and Russia
– Russia and Iran that want reluctant Turkey to mend its relation with Bashar Al Assad
– Europe that has always supported the non-sectarian Kurds in the region
If the Turkish army does not swiftly ‘liberate’ the 30km inside Syria, it may signify the end of the AKP and Erdogan as a long war will weaken Turkey’s economy and provoke internal bscklash

Posted by: Virgile | Oct 10 2019 7:01 utc | 145

Please watch this short video published by Vanessa Beely, via “the Syrian Girl”:
Kurds did not protect Christians
Here Assyrian Christians and report how their weapons were confiscated by Kurdish authorities on the promise the Kurdish Peshmerga army would protect them and a very short time later they were abandoned by them and their towns were left to ISIS without the Kurds even firing a single shot in defense of those towns.

Posted by: Eve Human | Oct 10 2019 7:54 utc | 147

I just read the Guardian article linked to by Baovsky @ 147. Anyone who thinks Trump has any idea what the fuck he is doing needs to read it. Trump is all over the map. The main intent seems to be to teach the EU a lesson by letting the captured ISIS head-choppers escape into Europe. (Yeah, the same ISIS that Trump claimed was “completely obliterated and defeated” a short time ago.) As to what else he is thinking – and I use the term “thinking” very loosely here – is anyone’s guess. He isn’t taking US troops out of Syria; he moved a couple hundred from one place to another, that’s all.
“They [the Kurds] didn’t help us in the second world war, they didn’t help us with Normandy,” – Donald J. Trump, the J stands for genius. What the actual fuck does that even mean now, 75 years later? And by the way, if the US is getting out of Syria, does that mean we aren’t going to fund and arm those “rebel” groups and mercenaries we’ve been backing for the past 4 years any more? Yeah, didn’t think so.
Trump is just letting ISIS move on to new territory, like Obama did when they somehow managed to move freely into Syria in the first place. The War of Terror is simply changing locales, but it will not end.

Posted by: teri | Oct 10 2019 8:57 utc | 149

It strikes me that Trump has be reading Sun Tzu:
When you find yourself digging yourself into a hole, stop.
When your opponent is digging himself into a hole, loan him a shovel.
Are those storm clouds I see over KSA?

Posted by: jared | Oct 10 2019 10:37 utc | 151

Here’s another analogy: the Sabra and Shatila massacre. In that case too everyone was shocked and horrified that Sharon THE WAR CRIMINAL would conspire with the Maronites to commit such a war crime, but then everyone went back to the crooked business of pretending the U.N. is independent of Zionist influence. Neither Israel nor the co-conspirator Maronite Phalange ever paid a price.
Of course Erdo will go over easy on Kurdish civilians but as agreed between all parties there will be plently of shock and awe to scare them out of the territory to make way for the 3 million rabid Assad-hating refugees.
Sure there will be collateral damage, but after lots of wailing and posturing, all will be forgiven and forgotten when everyone is resettled. Years of proxy war in Syria for an outcome where the ZioEmpire’s interests with next to no skin in the game are furthered and this time WITH PUTIN’S HELP!

Posted by: Circe | Oct 10 2019 11:18 utc | 153

Circe @ 153 The U.S. is all in with Erdo resettling 3 million Syrian opposition Sunni refugees on territory inhabited by the Kurds. It represents a loss for Assad, and that’s all that matters to the likes of Trump, Lindsey & co.
Not to toot my own horn but I said early on Turkey held all the cards at the Astana Poker Table.
The long predicted by alt social media Syrian/Russian advance into Idleb….whatever became of that? Stalled out? Dead and done? Still making progress, albeit slower than a broke-legged tortoise?

Posted by: donkeytale | Oct 10 2019 11:44 utc | 155

Trump is owned by Zionists and I’m suspecting that may be the case with Putin as well.
Zionists have spent U.S. treasure for their geo-political machinations. They read the Art of War cover to cover. What greater strategy can there be than to use someone else to fight your battles and spend their treasure while you collect billions a year from them? It’s pure genius!
Trump is always bitching that the U.S. pays more than anyone in Nato but puts more skin in the game, but notice how he’s given Israel more funding than any other Prez and never bitches to them about how many Americans died for Zionist-fabricated wars. Not such a stable genius after all!

Posted by: Circe | Oct 10 2019 11:52 utc | 157

Everyone is tacitly on board with the Turkish Peace in the Spring Operation. I’ll assume that means Erdo plans to relocate the Assad-hating refugees by the Spring.
ON BOARD: the U.N. and Russia:
From the Guardian article posted @147:

The UN security council is due to convene on Thursday to discuss the offensive at the request of its five current European members, but it is not expected to deliver a strong rebuke to Turkey, given tacit Russian support and US ambivalence.
[Nato definitely not urgently demanding Turkey pull back.]
The Nato secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, called on Turkey to act with restraint and “ensure that the gains we have made in the fight against Isis are not jeopardised. I will discuss this issue with President Erdoğan Friday.”
[Trump and pearl-clutching Republicans also all in!]
In remarks later, Trump presented the invasion as a historical inevitability, saying Turks and Kurds “have been fighting each other for centuries”. And he downplayed the US debt to Kurdish fighters, saying: “They didn’t help us in the second world war, they didn’t help us with Normandy …

Even Barzani isn’t making too much noise about it.
KUMBAYA ALL AROUND to Erdo’s Spring Peace! Hey! Maybe Erdo might even get a wink and a nod from Nobel! And won’t Trump be pea-green jea…louuus?!
Even former war is peace Nobel winner Obama would agree!
Everyone’s happy, happy, happy with this Turkish Spring Peace operation!

Posted by: Circe | Oct 10 2019 12:49 utc | 159

The gift that keeps on giving:
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/10/us/politics/turkey-kurds.html
In your face, Trump, what a disgrace! You’re actually going to cause a war in the ME:
““In the course of American history, when we have stuck with our allies in troubling circumstances, from the U.K. and Australia under attack in WWII to South Korea in the Korean War, things tend to work out to our benefit,” said James G. Stavridis, a retired admiral and former supreme allied commander for Europe. “When we walk away from loyal allies, as we did in Vietnam and are now threatening to do in Afghanistan and Syria, the wheels come off.””
I wonder if he’s so sick and insane he actually believes that. The Korean War? Vietnam?
They don’t like Trump. The military cf. the Atlantic article https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/11/military-officers-trump/598360/, have thrown him under the bus. But how to get rid of him? And what about the base?
If Trump doesn’t end up in an apartment several floors below Snowden’s, I’ll eat my hat.

Posted by: Bill Herschel | Oct 10 2019 14:10 utc | 161

@ Bill Herschel 162
Stavridis: “When we walk away from loyal allies, as we did in Vietnam and are now threatening to do in Afghanistan and Syria, the wheels come off.””
That’s one of the highlights of the recent Trump presidency, is that he’s dumped the loser flag officers, of the type that he embraced after his inauguration. (Another highlight is the lessening of US participation in the stupid wars, of course.) Stavridis, given his comments on Vietnam especially, is especially stupid even for a flag officer. Supremely stupid, one might say.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Oct 10 2019 14:56 utc | 163

@ Bill Herschel | Oct 10 2019 14:10 utc | 162
What kind of hat are we talking about hear?
I agree has comments are odd – OK, ridiculous maybe.
You would think he has a writer or two.
Yet the results are a bit of an improvement.
And to say that the military do not hold him in high regard, well…
I think that works both ways.

Posted by: jared | Oct 10 2019 15:01 utc | 165

@ Bill Herschel | Oct 10 2019 14:10 utc | 162
I’d say that Trump is living proof that an unqualified layman is a vast improvement over our military school grad bureaucrats.
Not to mention the likes of McCain, Cheney, Graham, Rubio et al.

Posted by: jared | Oct 10 2019 15:04 utc | 167

@ jared 168
Trump… a vast improvement over our military school grad
It’s not the grads specifically, it’s the grads who suck up to get ahead and become flag officers (general and admirals). That’s not all of them, but many of them, like ignorant Stavridis.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Oct 10 2019 15:10 utc | 169

@ Bemildred 169
they are cheaper to buy too.
Yes, they’re usually satisfied with a do-nothing connect-with-the-Pentagon job in some corporation or as a shill for the MSM on the tube (I’m told; I don’t have one, myself).

Posted by: Don Bacon | Oct 10 2019 15:27 utc | 171

@168 jared

I’d say that Trump is living proof that an unqualified layman is a vast improvement over our military school grad bureaucrats.

Don’t forget too that he’s a stable genius akin to Napolean Bonaparte! 😆

Posted by: Circe | Oct 10 2019 15:28 utc | 173

The people who are claiming that this is a huge departure for the US, and they got blind-sided by the Syria pullout, have been asleep at the switch.
from BBC
Trump has long called for the US to leave the Middle East. On the campaign trail, he said the region was a “total and complete mess” and wished the government had spent the trillions of dollars in the US instead.
His talk of an end to US military deployments overseas predates his presidential run. In 2013, he tweeted: “Our troops are being killed by the Afghanis we train and we waste billions there. Nonsense! Rebuild the USA.” That same year, he said the US should “stay the hell out” of the Syrian war. . .here

Posted by: Don Bacon | Oct 10 2019 16:02 utc | 175

. . . as for the Kurds, from RD:

As to abandoning the Syrian Kurds, the U.S. intention for the region’s Kurds was plain in 2017 when Washington advised the Iraqi Kurds to cancel an independence referendum but stay in Iraq’s federal system. Likewise, the Syrian Kurds were encouraged to open negotiations with the Assad regime to secure limited local autonomy, and it sure must be working as the SDF sells the Assad regime oil and natural gas, violating the sanctions on Syria in the process, but getting $378 million a year in oil revenue alone. . .here

Posted by: Don Bacon | Oct 10 2019 16:07 utc | 177

@ 74 cemi… i wanted to say i agree with your take @74… thanks for your posts…
@ 165 miss lacy… i agree with @167 bemildred.. that was perceptive of you to pick up on that.. i have no idea who the speechwriter is/was, but might indeed me as bemildred notes… cheers…
@173 william gruff.. here and on the new thread.. great commentary.. thanks.

Posted by: james | Oct 10 2019 16:43 utc | 179

Upthread @136 I announced Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif’s op/ed publication was picked up and partially translated as his first move to get regional discussion and eventual agreement of Rouhani’s HOPE and Russia’s Collective Security proposals happening. Zarif was able to find one accommodating Western publication, The Financial Times, which published an English equivalent of his earlier Arabic op/ed. IMO, Zarif’s writing is a work of diplomatic art:
“For too long now there has been mistrust, acrimony and conflict in the community around the Strait of Hormuz. For too long, states have armed themselves and invaded, bombed or embargoed each other. For too long, foreign forces have come to our region to project their power, not to protect our people. And for too long our peoples have suffered.
“We can, collectively, choose to remain on this path of instability and tension, and await the unknown. Or, we can instead choose peace, security, stability and prosperity for all. In late September, Iran’s president Hassan Rouhani proposed the latter at the UN General Assembly, unveiling what he called the Hormuz Peace Endeavor (Hope). The UN was given a mandate in 1987 to furnish the necessary umbrella for such a regional arrangement.
“Iran is trying to provide a solution to what appears — but in fact is not — an intractable problem. There are competing interests and ideologies, disparities in size, resources and capabilities, and distrust among the states most affected by developments in the area: Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, United Arab Emirates and Bahrain.”
Much more follows, and his conclusion’s masterful. We can continue being fools or we can choose to be wise. There IS a solution. And with a masterful stroke, Zarif concludes:
“We all have grievances about the past. Iran, after eight years of regionally financed aggression and 40 years of foreign-sponsored attacks and separatism, has much to complain about.
“But as the great poet and sage Rumi wrote 800 years ago: ‘Out beyond ideas of wrongdoing and right-doing there is a field. I’ll meet you there.'”
Soon we shall see who is bold enough to be wise and who is cowardly and remains a fool. The effects and potential benefits go well beyond Zarif’s neighborhood. Only the occupiers of Palestine could see this initiative as a threat. IMO, Trump welcomes it too. This is the first serious attempt at attaining genuine peace and security in this region in my lifetime. May all the actors prove to be wise!

Posted by: karlof1 | Oct 10 2019 17:42 utc | 181

@151: Laguerre: “The Kurds have absolutely no right to keep the oil-fields, only one well of which is located on Kurdish-inhabited territory.”
You’ve just answered your own question in reply to my comment @48: “there is no way Damascus can accept a KRG type close-to-failed-state autonomous region with current SDF/YPG occupied territory.”
@52:”Why not?”

Posted by: Lozion | Oct 10 2019 17:56 utc | 183

regarding my misspelling in #185:
Aoccdrnig to a rscheearch at Cmabrigde Uinervtisy, it deosn’t mttaer in waht oredr the ltteers in a wrod are, the olny iprmoetnt tihng is taht the frist and lsat ltteer be at the rghit pclae. The rset can be a toatl mses and you can sitll raed it wouthit porbelm. Tihs is bcuseae the huamn mnid deos not raed ervey lteter by istlef, but the wrod as a wlohe.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Oct 10 2019 18:33 utc | 185

Sunni MB Turks attacking Sunni Kurds. Sunni MB Qatar applauds while Sunni KSA pretends it is against it…

Posted by: Mina | Oct 10 2019 19:34 utc | 187

The Shi-Sunni divide which has been promoted and advanced by the US in its divide-and-conquer strategy, is exaggerated. . . Southern Baptists and Methodists, now there’s a difference.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Oct 10 2019 20:00 utc | 189

For the moment the Turks and proxies have taken about 15-20 villages, clearly intending to envelop the larger towns and force the defenders (and civilians) to flee.
Translation from the Russian Glav.su (Global Adventure) forums, Syrian thread, Old Cap(tain) I:
Recap of current situation:
So, what we have for the first two days of the Turkish operation “Fountain/Spring/Source of peace”, East of the Euphrates:
1. The Turkish Armed Forces:
– performing strikes practically along the entire border East of the Euphrates. Objects – warehouses, barracks, training camps, administrative buildings, within a depth of 10-15 kms. inside Syrian territory, mainly by long-range artillery. Up to 50 kms. inside Syria operate Turkish UCAVs. Targets – warehouses, training grounds, transport infrastructure objects.
No strikes further inside Syria.
The air and artillery strikes are meticulously corrected and prepared by the mass use of UAVs.
MRLS used very sparsely, mainly for psychological effect, than on real targets (and they are very effective in this type of use).
By the end of the first day (Wednesday) and after more than 180 targets hit, the invasion by ground forces began. It must be noted – it began very carefully.
First, reccoinesance in force in the direction of Tel-Abyad (TA) and Ras-al-Ayn (RAA). The attacking formations encountered resistance, organized at the outskirts of the populated places, reconnoitered the defense system and points and retreated during the night (favourite Tiger tactic, the Turks finally learned something).
– in the morning of October 10th, after analysing the actual disposition of the Kurdish defenses, the Turks took the decision to perform two main strikes – in the direction of TA and Ayn-Issa – by doing this, they cut off the Kurdish formations operating in the Manbidj area from the other parts of the enclave.
The Kurds have two options – either retreat to the East or reconcile and appeal to the SAA for help and protection. Judging from recent history (Afrin), they will choose the third option, i.e. do nothing, typical SDF leadership modus operandi style.
RAA, Tel Farah (or to the East of it). This direction already threatens Hassaka, after the projected fall of Kamishli (which seems inevitable if the Turks persist).
The main strike directions are around 150 kms. apart from each other, which with the full air domination of TAAF excludes any possibilities of force maneuver for the Kurds.
The Turks do not enter the main towns, they take only the surrounding villages (THE SPEED OF TAKING VILLAGES DEPENDS ON HOW FAST THEY ARE VACATED BY THE LOCALS – THE TURKS NEED TERRITORY, NOT PEOPLE) and they also move to the main roads connecting TA and RAA with the south part of SDF territory. And the Turks may be expected not to sever those roads for now – it is to their benefit if as many Kurds as possible rush South to the Euphrates – the less problems with locals and future control of the area.
Taking of Kamishli vey possible in the near future after it is vacated by as many Kurds as possible.
2. The Kurds
The biggest loses in the Middle East (they must be relatives of the Ukrainians, no possible other explanation, no learning abilities).
They had control over that territory for 3 years, population about 3 million people, oil, weapons, sweet deals… No comparison to the “rebels” in Hama, Idlib or Aleppo.
Massive US support, Erdo mentioned 30 000 trucks with goodies…
NOTHING DONE FOR THOSE 3 YEARS (even Afrin looks like the Maginot line).
– mass deserions, the Assyrian units declared neutrality, the Arab units are running for the hills as fast as they can, after brutally cracking down on any dissent for 3 years, the Kurds have no local allies left.
– no mass inflow of volunteers to fight, the units are ready to fight for their village only or that nice oil rig making big bucks.
– the Kurds could not equip a first line of defence along the whole border (okay, it is 450 kms., but this is not an excuse), there is no second line at all. No minefields, no engineering obstacles, no reserve positions to fall back on. Basically, they counted on the US only. When you compare that to the anthills of Hama the Tigers recently liberated, there is nothing to stop the Turks.
3. I don’t know what the end goal of the Turks is. If it is to take the 30 kms. zone, they can play cat and mouse with the Kurds, save the infrastructure, chase away the locals, save soldiers and equipment – beyond that I don’t know.
4. Damascus/RF have a couple of weeks to raise the locals beyond the Euphrates and with the help of the local Arab tribes take the oilfields. It will be much harder after that”.
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I personally don’t share the last point. Erdo is the battering ram and Putin is patient enough…
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Posted by: BG | Oct 10 2019 20:41 utc | 191

Reuters:
The deputy foreign minister of Syria Faisal Makdad declared today that the Kurds have betrayed their country and accused them of separatism, which at the end gave the pretext for Turkey to invade sovereign Syrian territory.
Asked if Damascus is ready for dialog with the SDF, he replied:
“Those (Kurdish) armed groups betrayed their country and committed a high crime against it”.
There will be no dialogue, the official declared. “Washington’s agents will have nobody to count on.”
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The niceties have ended. The Kurds missed too many chances to repair the bridges back and now the Kraken has been released.
—

Posted by: BG | Oct 10 2019 21:15 utc | 193

@195 karlof1, @192 BG
It does increasingly appear that Turkey is conducting a very precise operation orchestrated by the entire axis, with Russia as top-tier guarantor and very likely allied command.
In other words, Erdogan has come so far over to the very side that realpolitik has said he must choose, that he can be trusted with an operation that only he could get away with. He’s doing what the Russians and Syrians could far less easily accomplish, which is to sanitize the northern border without tripping the US tripwire – now departed.
I always surmised that his mission in Idleb was genuine, and that he failed to evacuate more of the jihadists only because of his domestic constraints and entanglements. These seem to be much loosened now, at least as it concerns the Kurds.
One could see the “duplicitous” Erdogan being used to constrain and entangle the western power, while performing a clear mission for the east – to put it in such terms. I’m inclined to think this operation will show just how firmly Erdogan has chosen his path to the east. He has played his cards perfectly with the west, and gotten his way without being stopped. And he still has major cards left to play, with NATO and Incirlik.
Erdogan was a priceless weapon that the axis really wanted to use, and his apparent options have never been as large as the realpolitik that hems him in. Did Moscow see all this when Putin acted in such a remarkable hurry to forgive Erdogan and bring him back into the fold? One suspects that all of this, and more, was clear to the Kremlin and its supercomputers.
~~
I appreciate those few who have offered real information and decent surmise during this elegantly opaque military operation. As has been pointed out, almost all of the Syria talk here has been speculation, and crude chaff. It was a field day for idle words.
Meanwhile the boots on the ground reveal the pattern.

Posted by: Grieved | Oct 11 2019 0:06 utc | 195

Will the real Lindsey Graham please stand?
three days ago
Sen. Lindsey Graham, one of President Donald Trump’s strongest Republican defenders in Congress, blasted Trump Monday over his decision to remove US troops from northern Syria as Turkey plans a military offensive in the region, saying it was “shortsighted and irresponsible.” .here
today
“I told President Trump that Obama made a huge mistake in relying on the YPG Kurds,” Graham continued. “Everything I worried about has come true, and now we have to make sure Turkey is protected from this threat in Syria. I’m sympathetic to the YPG problem, and so is the president, quite frankly.” . .here

Posted by: Don Bacon | Oct 11 2019 1:02 utc | 197

BG #192, Erdoghan has a challenger from within his political corner.
Davutuglu
Erdoghan needs a win in Syria against Kurds not Syrians roght now.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Oct 11 2019 2:03 utc | 199