Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
October 07, 2019

Syria - Trump Gives A Green Light For Another Turkish Invasion

This morning U.S. President Donald Trump has a little surprise for the Kurds in Syria:

Today, President Donald J. Trump spoke with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey by telephone. Turkey will soon be moving forward with its long-planned operation into Northern Syria. The United States Armed Forces will not support or be involved in the operation, and United States forces, having defeated the ISIS territorial “Caliphate,” will no longer be in the immediate area.
...
Turkey will now be responsible for all ISIS fighters in the area captured over the past two years in the wake of the defeat of the territorial “Caliphate” by the United States.

This actually is not a surprise. Trump had tried several times to remove the U.S. from Syria and was only held back by the borg. Last December then Secretary of Defense James Mattis resigned when Trump ordered the troops to leave Syria. I do not expect anything similar to happen now.

Turkey long wanted to move into the Syrian border area east of the Euphrates. It sees the YPG resistance group, with whom the U.S. allied to go after ISIS, as a threat to its country. That view is justified.


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Erdogan wants to take a 30 kilometer deep strip including the M4 highway which runs west to east in that area.

But the border area Erdogan marked is quite populated with some 850,000 people living there. Most of them are Kurds.


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Turkey wants to replace those Kurds with the Syrian mob that it armed and supported against the Syrian government troops. These people and their families currently live in Turkey. To move them into north Syria would be one of the largest ethnic cleansing operation the world has seen in recent times.

A saying goes "The Kurds have no friends but the mountains." But there are no mountains in Syria's north east. While the YPG might want to fight off a Turkish invasion they have little chance to succeed. The land is flat and the YPG forces only have light arms.

There is only one solution for them. They will have to call up the Syrian government and ask it to come back into the north east. That would remove the Turkish concerns and would likely prevent further Turkish moves.

The second part of Trump's statement, that Turkey will take responsibility for imprisoned ISIS fighters and families, can not be taken seriously. Those camps are far beyond the border zone Erdogan seeks.


Source: ISW - bigger

It was long predicted that the Kurds would become the biggest losers of the war on Syria. They already lost Afrin in the north west to a Turkish invasion.  Will they again resist the need to submit to the central government and repeat that mistake? One would hope that they are smarter than that but I would not bet on it.

Posted by b on October 7, 2019 at 14:33 UTC | Permalink

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Trump will probably just move a few troops around .....not really a withdrawal. It's all about controlling Syrian oilfields and keeping pressure on Assad. As for any Kurds who still dream about Rojava they should work something out with the Syrian government while they have a chance.

Posted by: dh | Oct 7 2019 14:42 utc | 1

The second part of Trump's statement, that Turkey will take responsible for imprisoned ISIS fighters and families, can not be taken serious. Those camps are far beyond the border zone Erdogan seeks.

Who is stopping US loading them into buses and shipping them to Turkey. Trump doesn't want them, Kurds will have to feed them, while Erdogan can take them and blackmail EU. A win-win situation, at least for Trump and Erdogan. And even if EU capitulates to every crazy Turkish demands, who knows if they don't end up on Greek islands and all over Europe later on, maybe with Turkish sponsored fake identities.

Posted by: Erlindur | Oct 7 2019 14:59 utc | 2

The Kurdish people have a lot of fight and perseverance in them but the leadership has very poor (if any) foresight or forward strategic thinking. Saddam exploited it quite easily. At this point in time, Turkey wants to go in anyway to spread their ottoman education and brainwashing and the Syrian government, although would want to stop Turkey, probably should better focus on Idleb than on such a long stretch of land to protect people whose leadership would surely switch sides again without any real strategic thinking.

Posted by: Murad | Oct 7 2019 15:00 utc | 3

Rojava is an Israeli dream. No solution for the kurds, except submit to the Syrian government which has been very tolerant with them in the past.

Posted by: Bob | Oct 7 2019 15:05 utc | 4

30 km does not seem very strategically significant these days - from what we've read here recently. With a little Houthi know-how ...

Posted by: Shyaku | Oct 7 2019 15:09 utc | 5

Also, as previously reported

Turkey (Edogan's son) had been bootlegging oil from Syria.
But seems Russia had messed-up that arrangement.
Maybe Biden will get a piece.

Posted by: jared | Oct 7 2019 15:18 utc | 6

For at least a year, with the writing on the wall, I’ve wondered why the Kurds, rather than just wait around for another inevitable Western betrayal, didn’t turn the tables and betray the U.S. for a change by entering into serious negotiations with Damascus while they still had some bargaining power.

Posted by: David G | Oct 7 2019 15:39 utc | 7

I agree with dh in comment # 1 who wrote
"
It's all about controlling Syrian oilfields and keeping pressure on Assad.
"

Another reason is to keep the ME stirred up if empire can't have its war with Iran/Venezuela/Russia/China/NK or other of the not empire holdouts like Iraq as an almosty.

Our Civilization war continues apace.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Oct 7 2019 15:43 utc | 8

@6 It is the Trump cronies that ordered the Ukrainians to replace board members of their largest gas company with donors to Perry & Trump in order to be able to dictate that Ukraine had to buy US gas from the US that the donors would take large profits from.

Posted by: BraveNewWorld | Oct 7 2019 15:49 utc | 9

I find it interesting that Trump is able to do this now, we do seem to be withdrawing. He has ordered withdrawals in the past that came to nothing. Ordering the military to withdraw in Syria and them doing it, that seems new, not to mention sudden.

Posted by: Bemildred | Oct 7 2019 15:53 utc | 10

Turkey will now be responsible for all ISIS fighters in the area captured over the past two years in the wake of the defeat of the territorial “Caliphate” by the United States.
...
The second part of Trump's statement, that Turkey will take responsible for imprisoned ISIS fighters and families, can not be taken serious. Those camps are far beyond the border zone Erdogan seeks.

What does "in the area" mean? There are two prison camps marked on the map that are clearly within the 30km zone. Maybe Trump's statement means only these camps will be taken over by the Turks. The 2 camps must have guards - are the guards US or Kurds?

Maybe the idea is to release the ISIS fighters to fight the Kurds, and use the prison camps for the Kurds instead?

The land is flat and the YPG forces only have light arms.

"Have" or "had"? They might have (also had?) lots of anti-tank guided missiles, and who knows what the US might give them to fend off the Turks. Does Trump plan to make it easy for Erdogan or difficult?

Or, maybe Trump just wants to create a situation where the US is able to pull out completely (probably excluding the oil area) and leave the rest to Turkey and Syria to fight out between them (which of course will surely be blocked by the US Deep State).

As usual with Trump, everything has abundant ambiguity. We shall see.

Posted by: BM | Oct 7 2019 15:54 utc | 11

The last Turkish invasion plan I saw was 4,000 fighters deployed to take Tal Abyad and 6,000 fighters to take Resulayn (center of the strip in the above map). These are two major Syria border towns across from major Turkish towns, split up as a result of the Sykes-Picot Agreement. Ras al-Ayn is 117 km E of Tel Abyad. There are Kurds on both sides, actually.
Here's a Turkish twitter showing US departure etc.
.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Oct 7 2019 15:55 utc | 12

Trump's latest tweet below. I guess he means he won't like it, if Turkey slaughters the Kurds. Whenever I see something like this, I have to ask myself, is he joking? Or serious. The 'heat and unmatched wisdom' sounds like a joke, but who knows. The comment about the 100% capture of the ISIS caliphate is almost as amusing. Trump is inscrutable ... it's just hard to believe that anyone could really be as stupid as he often sounds. Just to be clear though, Trump is stupid, but his enemies are truly evil.

'As I have stated strongly before, and just to reiterate, if Turkey does anything that I, in my great and unmatched wisdom, consider to be off limits, I will totally destroy and obliterate the Economy of Turkey (I’ve done before!). They must, with Europe and others, watch over...
....the captured ISIS fighters and families. The U.S. has done far more than anyone could have ever expected, including the capture of 100% of the ISIS Caliphate. It is time now for others in the region, some of great wealth, to protect their own territory. THE USA IS GREAT!'

Posted by: SteveK9 | Oct 7 2019 16:08 utc | 13

'great and unmatched wisdom'

Posted by: SteveK9 | Oct 7 2019 16:08 utc | 14

David G @7--

The answer to your question is $$$$$--always for a Fistfull of a Few Dollars More--Italian film makers pegged it all back in the 1960s.

Sputnik highlights this Zarif tweet:

"US is an irrelevant occupier in Syria—futile to seek its permission or rely on it for security.

"Achieving peace & fighting terror in Syria will only succeed thru respect for its territorial integrity & its people.

"Adana provides framework for Turkey & Syria—Iran ready to help". [My Emphasis]

IMO, what's ongoing was discussed at the latest Astana talks between Turkey, Russia and Iran, and again at the UNGA sidelines, this time also with Iraq. The main aim is to drive Outlaw US Empire forces out of the region, thus securing the primary first step in restabilizing the entire Gulf region as proposed by Iran and Russia.

Canthama offered the following lengthy assessment at SyrPers earlier this morning:

" What we know up to now and what it could happen:

"1) US troops demanded SDF to remove all defenses on the border, it was done in the past few weeks.
2) US troops left, early today, all the border in Raqqa Province, retreated in land to an undefined distance, it may retreat all the way to Hasaka and Deir ez Zour, but it is unknown at the moment.
3) SDF fanboys are now reporting that YPG has advanced their forces from all positions by the Euphrates to the border with Turkey, this is possible but I see as highly unlikely scenario to see some serious resistance to the turkish invasion.
4) I do not see the SAA to occupy the border with Turkey, there is no deal with the SDF so far, but the SAA can take a broader role in Qamishili, Raqqa, Mabij and Hasaka, but this is yet to be seen.
5) We are approaching a scenario of long turkish occupation of northern Raqqa Province, just like in northern Aleppo and Afrin, in part the plan is to push the millions of Syrians back to northern Syria at any cost, and with that Turkey will play a mini Ottoman plan to expand its territory and convert these already “turkishfied” Syrians after 7-8 years living in Turkey into turkish citizens thus annexing the occupied territory.
6) The US won’t leave eastern Syria that easy, it will control the oil fields and deny Syria from its oil and most of Hasaka grains, thus fulfilling its role for the apartheid regime, delaying Syria’s rebuilding and recovery is a must to the apartheid regime.
7) There are hundreds of kurdish supporters crying crocodile tears right now in the social media, it is in fact pathetic, since it was clear since day one they would be dumped under the bus, they fulfilled their role to avoid reconciliation with the Syrian Gov and to allow Turkey to illegal occupy part of Syria (Afrin/northern Aleppo) and now northern Raqqa and possibly NW Hasaka, their fate is unknown from now, if there is no deal with the Syrian Gov, then it is to expect some sort of internal power struggle, finger pointing and fear, so it could be possible that some groups do ally with the Syrian Gov while other will try to attempt to resist turkish occupation or even fight among themselves, there is a serious risk that thousands of ISIS prisoners and families are let loose to fulfil again their task to NATO/GCC/Israel, so a pandora box is about to be opened once more in that area."

IMO, what Trump's doing in his Commander in Chief capacity is a direct result of the Current Oligarchy/D-Party impeachment attempt. I added an item to the open thread about that last night and will post another item there as soon as I finish here. There's also going to be a large redeployment of Imperial stormtroopers to Europe for an upcoming exercise that appears to be part of the overall equation. Also topping the news is DPRK's calling off the next round of talks due to the usual crap delivered by the Outlaw US Empire, whose PR says the exact opposite. So, lots of activity globally. Yes, and Sanders has returned to campaigning.

Posted by: karlof1 | Oct 7 2019 16:12 utc | 15

Greenlighting the Turkish invasion presents problems for Syria, especially if matched by de facto US presence in the oil fields. Also, the implicit declaration that the jihadis can take sanctuary with the Turks also raises tough issues. It is unclear what Putin can offer Turkey to keep them from this US turn. Endless war in Syria is a defeat for the Syrian national government as well as Putin. Partition would a defeat for Assad but it may be his only way out.

Posted by: steven t johnson | Oct 7 2019 16:15 utc | 16

. . .earlier this year:
Jan 11, 2019, U.S. Official Says Troop Withdrawal From Syria Has Started
BAGHDAD (AP) — After days of back and forth over U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to pullout American troops from Syria, a U.S. military official said Friday the process of withdrawal has begun, declining to comment on specific timetables or movements. . .Col. Sean Ryan, spokesman for the U.S.-led coalition fighting the Islamic State group, said “the process of our deliberate withdrawal from Syria” has started.“Out of concern for operational security, we will not discuss specific timelines, locations or troops movements,” the Baghdad-based official said in a statement emailed to The Associated Press.//

Trump should have done it then; now it's a worse mess.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Oct 7 2019 16:15 utc | 17

@13 I can't see Erdogan taking Trump's threats seriously. The Turks have their own agenda which mainly consists of making sure no independent Kurdish state exists on their border. As usual Trump's tough talk is aimed at his domestic audience and the 2020 election.

Posted by: dh | Oct 7 2019 16:19 utc | 18

Another twitter feed you might want to follow (besides Ali Özkök here) is Brett McGurk here. McGurk masterminded the establishment of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which became a US ally in the fight against Daesh, in 2015. The SDF was led by the YPG, the Syrian wing of the PKK, which is recognised as a terrorist organisation by both Washington and Ankara. McGurk resigned Dec 31 2018.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Oct 7 2019 16:28 utc | 19

That's why Erdogan got the S-400 air defense system.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Oct 7 2019 16:29 utc | 20

This move by Turkey has the potential to unify anti-Kurd sentiment in every ME country with a "Kurdish Problem". Just after the beginning of the Zio-AmeriKKKan Fake civil war on Assad, I remember Xymphora repeating speculation that Assad could defuse any potential threat from Syria's Kurds by granting them de facto Autonomy. And that's precisely what happened, within days. And they repaid his generosity by stabbing him in the back?

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Oct 7 2019 16:32 utc | 21

Last month the plan was to take the Kurds off the border, an attempt to placate Turkey. . .It didnt work.

Sep 21, 2019 -- A U.S. soldier oversees members of the Syrian Democratic Forces on Sept. 21, 2019, as they demolish a Kurdish fighters' fortification and raise a Tal Abyad Military Council flag over the outpost as part of the so-called "safe zone" near the Turkish border here. The SDF military councils were formed earlier this year. The SDF was a US creature, formed in 2015.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Oct 7 2019 16:50 utc | 22

Entire Trump Tweet Thread says much more than the memo b linked to above. I find this part very revealing of Trump's mindset, his emphasis, regarding "ridiculous Endless Wars":

"WE WILL FIGHT WHERE IT IS TO OUR BENEFIT, AND ONLY FIGHT TO WIN."

Channeling Tulsi Gabbard? IMO, there's no war that the Outlaw US Empire could fight that would be a "benefit," nor is there any war that it could "win." Certainly a shout and shot across the Current Oligarchy's bow.

Posted by: karlof1 | Oct 7 2019 16:51 utc | 23

"I will totally destroy and obliterate the Economy of Turkey (I’ve done before!)."
A very interesting threat. In essence he is saying nothing will prevent me from forcing the rest of the world to come up with an alternative to the dollar system.
Another significant development is the decision to send 20,000 troops over to Europe to take part in NATO manouevres. Are they designed to take the place of Turkish troops which the US seems determined to drive out of NATO and into the Sino-Russian-Iranian alliance?
Diplomacy has indeed been replaced by a combination of Treasury and Pentagon sanctions and threats. The combination is one that seems destined to lead to national bankruptcy.

Posted by: bevin | Oct 7 2019 16:56 utc | 24

The US realized, after the 'no fly zone' was nixed, that having boots on the ground was the only way to have a credible seat at the table in determining the outcome of the conflict. Until they completely withdraw the role as a spoiler and wrench in the works of Syrian sovereignty will persist, no matter what Trump tweets. Look for actions on the ground rather than pronouncements.

Posted by: the pessimist | Oct 7 2019 17:01 utc | 25

Here's the twitter feed of the SDF Coordination & Military Ops Center.. .They speak excellent English! And they miss Nikki Haley.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Oct 7 2019 17:02 utc | 26

Ah, This would have all been discussed and ironed out at the 'Big Meet' a few weeks back. Just to state the bleedin obvious Syria, Russia, Iran and Turkey hold the 'high ground', the Kurds, SDF and the US forces are an inconvenience and an irrelevance. It's the Israeli's who are going to have their noses put out of joint. They had big hopes.

They may have to do the fighting themselves..... and they REALLY don't like that... not when there's other parents Goy's and Girls to catch the bullets.

Chosen by God don't ya know....

Posted by: Carnyx | Oct 7 2019 17:04 utc | 27

There is something else going on here, too. The Russian special forces opened a river crossing across the Euphrates at Deir Azur this morning into the SDF region. That could turn out to be interesting. https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/russian-special-forces-open-new-euphrates-crossing-between-sdf-saa-lines-photos/

Posted by: m | Oct 7 2019 17:04 utc | 28

wasn't the idea of a Kurdish state a CIA idea? The KPP/YPG just another avenue through which to transit money from tax coffers to corrupt orgs, and politicians. Russia or China should have helped the native American efforts when there was still a population willing to fight. A few crates of AK 47s, and Man Pads may have made a difference.
It's the same thing. The Kurds don't have as strong an argument for a separate state as our red skinned brothers.

Posted by: joetv | Oct 7 2019 17:07 utc | 29

Bret McGurk mentioned in my #19 above, according to reports was instrumental in writing the Iraq constitution when he was stationed there, and also promoting Iraqi Kurdistan. He hoped to replicate that in Syria, but resigned Dec 31 2018 as ISIS envoy. The anti-Trumpers in the Graham/Rubio (was McCain) school of foreign wars will be employing him now. McGurk is known as a "doer" according to the NYTimes (wiki).

Posted by: Don Bacon | Oct 7 2019 17:20 utc | 30

If Erdo promised Trump a kind of Lebanon-style government arrangement between the Kurds and anti-Assad Syrians then Assad can kiss that part of Syria away along with the Golan Heights. The Kurds will bow their heads and accept such an alternative because the Zio-U.S. has become their de facto master. This is what you get when you lie down with the Empire.

You can call this move theft on a sovereign country and Putin will wash his hands. Syria and Iran are fcuked territorially in a sandwhich meant to suffocate trade with Iran. The only way out of this stranglehold on Syrian sovereignty is WAR.

This is what you get when you trust Putin.

To the Trump defenders and whitewashers: HOW DO YOU LIKE ZIO TRUMPSHET SO FAR, SUCKERS??!

EAT IT.

Posted by: Circe | Oct 7 2019 17:22 utc | 31

For at least a year, with the writing on the wall, I’ve wondered why the Kurds, rather than just wait around for another inevitable Western betrayal, didn’t turn the tables and betray the U.S. for a change by entering into serious negotiations with Damascus while they still had some bargaining power.

Posted by: David G | Oct 7 2019 15:39 utc | 7

I wish! But it's early days and hopefully the YPG will recognise the error of their ways, unlikely I know, having done a deal with the US, it's clear they have no honour, pure opportunists, but then look where they come from, a so-called Marxist movement. The depressing hand of the Western 'left' once again is revealed.

Posted by: Barovsky | Oct 7 2019 17:23 utc | 32

They must reconcile with Damascus.

Posted by: Josh | Oct 7 2019 17:27 utc | 33

Oh bruuuther, you can cut the naïveté with a knife on this thread. The only reason Trump put out that threatening tweet is to soothe the fears of his Zio-loving brothers Graham and Rubio and to remind Erdo not to stray from the plan. IOW, ZIO EMPIRE FULLY IN CHARGE UNDER TRUMP THE CHOSEN ONE.

Posted by: Circe | Oct 7 2019 17:35 utc | 34

I’ve wondered why the Kurds, rather than just wait around for another inevitable Western betrayal, didn’t turn the tables and betray the U.S. for a change by entering into serious negotiations with Damascus while they still had some bargaining power.

Posted by: David G | Oct 7 2019 15:39 utc | 7

They did, but the US prevented them going very far. No doubt by threats. But the Kurds never obeyed completely. There was that case of the Syrian base in Qamishli, which the US organised a Kurdish attack on, but the Kurds refused to continue after 24 hours. And the base is still there, as far as I know. That event speaks volumes about US-Rojavan relations.

Posted by: Laguerre | Oct 7 2019 17:36 utc | 35

War and Chaos profiteer, Smokin' Joe Biden, self-described proud Zionist (vid on youtube), was an outspoken proponent for a Kurdish State vis a vis the "partitioning" of Iraq.

No question that career pol Biden is very friendly with the CIA.

Posted by: fastfreddy | Oct 7 2019 17:38 utc | 36

@b

„It sees the YPG resistance group, with who the U.S. allied to go after ISIS, as a threat to its country. That view is justified.“

Can you deliver an argument for this interpretation?

Posted by: Hausmeister | Oct 7 2019 17:48 utc | 37

Completely predictable outcome, it was written all over since December when Trump announced its 1st decision to leave Syria, it is all about politics and 2020, Syrian Kurds and all Syrians in north-east of the country are totally spendable, may this lesson be learnt (though I doubt it) and make the corrupted SDC to deal with Syrian Gov, it is my understanding the SDC lost all credibility and leverage, and their situation is extremely dire at the moment.
Expect huge unrest all over occupied north-eastern Syria, people will revolt against SDF forces and there will be high probability for the US to murder civilians revolting near their illegal bases.
Things are evolving and Trump has turned around in done deals, he may do it again.
Keep in mind we have heard nothing from the Russian and Syrian Governments so far. Only Iran has spoken and clearly mentioned Adana Turkish-Syrian deal (which allows either country to establish a safe zone in case of threat inside the other country).

Posted by: Canthama | Oct 7 2019 17:58 utc | 38

"War and Chaos profiteer, Smokin' Joe Biden, self-described proud Zionist (vid on youtube)"

Is he also in Epstein's little black book?

Posted by: Carnyx | Oct 7 2019 17:58 utc | 39

karlof1@23

Trump probably knows that the only one who could beat him handily is Tulsi. Wonder if dum-dems will catch on in time.

Posted by: NOBTS | Oct 7 2019 17:59 utc | 40

I agree with dh in comment # 1 who wrote;
"
"It's all about controlling Syrian oilfields and keeping pressure on Assad".

Yep, agreed...

IMO, anyone who expects the empire to fully withdraw from anywhere, is a bit naive, and historically impaired...

Posted by: ben | Oct 7 2019 18:01 utc | 41

Hausmeister @37--

In his coverage of the war on Syria, b has provided lots of documentation proving the Turkish argument that certain Kurdish forces conduct terrorist operations within Turkey. To find them, you would need to go through the many relevant articles, but b has proven that point on several previous occasions in response to queries like yours.

Posted by: karlof1 | Oct 7 2019 18:02 utc | 42

I don't believe it is a matter of being smart, but rather being betrayed. I am convinced that at least some of the leadership cadres are US assets.

Posted by: kemerd | Oct 7 2019 18:03 utc | 43

This will be a good time for the Turks to find out if there is a backdoor in the SS-4 system they just bought from the Russians, who at one time, if I remember correctly, told them not to invade Syria.

Posted by: Vonu | Oct 7 2019 18:15 utc | 44

As nearly all the Kurds live within that 30 km strip, it will be effectively an occupation of Rojava. The yellow bits further down are mainly occupied by Sunni Arabs designated as "tribes". (The ISW maps have a tendency to exaggerate areas occupied by US allies, and minimise any areas occupied by US enemies).

The Kurds may have already ethnically cleansed them, as supporters of Da'ish. It's not a one-way act. The Kurds have been doing plenty of ethnic cleansing themselves, notably at Sinjar, where they haven't allowed Sunni Arabs back into lands once shared with the Yazidis.

Posted by: Laguerre | Oct 7 2019 18:22 utc | 45

Since Trump is crippling Iran's economy he's almost assured that Iran is in no position to help Syria prevent this territorial SWINDLE and attack on its sovereignty.

Putin is looking like a traitor right now. All those visits from bibiyahoo are starting to pay off for Israhell.

Trump is all smug because he thinks he pulled this off without firing a shot even pretending the U.S. is not involved by withdrawing troops into Iraq. What a joke!

The Kurds can't and won't fight this. Of course there had to have been betrayal from the leadership.

Syria and Iran's next step...?

Trump thinks he's the smartest guy in the room. He's sure proving he's in the con business. We'll see if everything goes according to plan. You know what they say about the best laid plans.

Posted by: Circe | Oct 7 2019 18:31 utc | 46

Trump may have signed his impeachment with this move since he is going head to head with the MIC and their dogs in congress. “Needless and unwinable wars” and “peace” are taboo coming from a US president. That is something the Republicans and Democrats can come together on.

The only ally he has in this fight are the regular folks and I don’t think that would be enough to save him in the end. What a mess.

This would be Russia and Iran’s chance to fill the void and resolve this by putting pressure on Erdogan. And the only way to do it is to move SAA to the area ASAP, if at all possible.

Kurds need to resolve their fractured alliances among themselves for this is their last chance at a possible peace. Forget about independence. That ship sailed long ago.

Posted by: Uncle Jon | Oct 7 2019 18:32 utc | 47

Posted by: karlof1 | Oct 7 2019 18:02 utc | 42

"...b has provided lots of documentation proving the Turkish argument that certain Kurdish forces conduct terrorist operations within Turkey.“
We do not want to be naive, do we? Same is true for terrorist operations of the regime inside Turkey and outside, especially in Syria. Why should one side have the right to smash everything that contradicts its life lie but the other side not? Can't you see that both sides are authoritarian entities (Erdogan and Assad) who create a lot of resistance inside their countries for it all the time? Assad has only the merit that he resp. his Baath regime was attacked first from outside. People in the Near East are fed up with Western armchair geopolitical warriors.

Laguerre | Oct 7 2019 18:22 utc | 45

"The Kurds have been doing plenty of ethnic cleansing themselves, notably at Sinjar, where they haven't allowed Sunni Arabs back into lands once shared with the Yazidis."
Without showing real credible sources from there I prefer not to believe such stuff.

Posted by: Hausmeister | Oct 7 2019 18:34 utc | 48

I'd assembled a comment full of tweeted info that vanished upon clicking Preview that I'll try to replicate for the argument I'll present. Important news on UAE and Saudi:

"The National Interest: #Saudi #Aramco will take at least 8 month to be fixed & be bk to 100% oil production.

"#UAE is (going bankrupt) & considering to borrow new loans."

How fast and how far:

"Official at the Pentagon of the US channel 'Free':

"- We began to evacuate our positions and withdraw our vehicles from northeastern Syria.
- We received the US administration's orders to withdraw completely from Syria according to a short timetable."

First published notice of Saudi acceptance of Ansarullah truce proposal:

"Saudi Arabia Holds Military Negotiations with UAE after Welcoming Ansarullah Truce Offer."

The above combined with other items cited above and on previous threads leads me to believe there's a very good chance that the Russian/Iranian collective security/peace proposal will be accepted as at the UNGA's conclusion it was clear that a majority of the region's nations favored such an arrangement. As many have noted, Trump's thinking 2020 election; and he could certainly claim that his participating in/allowing the HOPE plan to move forward is a sign of his "greater wisdom" as he would spin-it. Imagine, just in time for the RNC Convention, the HOPE plan is finalized and all Outlaw US Empire forces are removed from the region. That would be a huge victory for Trump and a big defeat for Neocons/Current Oligarchy/D-Party Warhawks that even Circe would need to applaud. The only way such a scenario might be stopped is a repeat of November 1963 and soon, like this November.

Am I being too optimistic? Well, Trump has yet to really produce a win and deliver on any of his campaign promises other than to continue to line the 1%'s pockets. Allegedly, the economy's doing well, although Shadowstats says otherwise. Updates on Ukrainegate are posted on the week in review thread, and he appears to have the upper hand despite media spin. Given the way I expect the DNC to operate, it will put forth Warren as its POTUS candidate, shafting Sanders and genuine Progressives yet again, thus guaranteeing a Trump win. Now please don't misunderstand what I just wrote as I'm not endorsing Trump; what I am doing is predicting what will occur, which isn't at all the same thing.

Posted by: karlof1 | Oct 7 2019 18:44 utc | 49

The Quislings to the Anglozionist should accept their fate and surrender any ideas of freedom. You lay down with dogs you get fleas as the old saying goes.

Posted by: Tonymike | Oct 7 2019 18:57 utc | 50

Circe,

why did you enter this bar while been drinking alcohol elsewhere? You are TUI (typing under influence) and might get arrested by the IT police. While in custody at the matrix, you might be beaten by the agents and possibly raped. However, because it is the matrix, you won't remember a thing and will live happily from then on, continuing to bash that traitor Putin.

You seem a very intelligent, deep, and serious guy, so you'll understand.

Posted by: albagen | Oct 7 2019 19:05 utc | 51

The USG, as Trump has said, no longer has a financial interest in The Middle East as it had when the Carter Doctrine governed US behavior. The USG, to maintain the military budget, needs to implement the pivot to Pacific Asia (against China) which was announced by Obama/Clinton but was never really implemented. Everything the US has attempted in the ME has failed. It's time (the USG has indicated) to let it go. (The other mil-budget-pumper is the "Russia threat" in Ukraine.)

The main resistance in this is the Pentagon (and its allies) which never want to retreat from anywhere but thankfully they have (finally, hopefully) been beaten back by Trump who has recognized the Turkey has its own valid security concerns. It's been a learning curve for Trump who initially went heavy on general officers for staffing, and now that's been corrected. Mattis is now gone because he disagreed on Syria withdrawal, and there are no others.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Oct 7 2019 19:07 utc | 52

The US ruling class has a habit of issuing unpopular edicts on Friday night or the eve of major holidays, under the assumption that Americans pay no attention to the "weekend news cycle".
Trump issued his withdrawal notice last night, late on Sunday. Was that under the assumption that it would take until Monday morning for Lindsey Graham and the rest of the neocons to sober up from the weekend?
It certainly seems that way to me. Trump's original declaration focused mostly on ISIS troops. He pointed out that Europe didn't want it's ISIS citizens back, so he was leaving them for Turkey to deal with. I took that to mean that Turkey could go ahead and slaughter them, without any outcry from the US/NATO occupiers. I wasn't going to shed any tears over them, either.
But, once Congress and the media woke up and sobered up Monday morning, the attacks started. They ignored ISIS and focused on the Kurds. "Think of the Kurdish children", blah, blah, blah.
Then Trump backed down, as usual, issuing a bizarre tweet threatening Turkey and throwing in a line about his great wisdom.
Say what? What was that about? Was it red meat to distract TDS sufferers, sending them barking off on a red herring path?
Apparently, the troops have actually started pulling back. Will the Deep State have time to organize a "gas attack" to stop the withdrawal?
No wonder they're so furious.

Posted by: wagelaborer | Oct 7 2019 19:13 utc | 53

@ karlof1 49
Trump has yet to really produce a win and deliver on any of his campaign promises
That's not true.
Trump's top ten promises from politifact, 2016: here
1. ‘Build a wall’ — and make Mexico pay for it
2. Temporarily ban Muslims from entering the United States
3. ‘Bring manufacturing (jobs) back’
4. Impose tariffs on goods made in China and Mexico
5. Renegotiate or withdraw from the North American Free Trade Agreement and Trans-Pacific Partnership
6. ‘Full repeal of Obamacare’ and replace it with a market-based alternative
7. Renegotiate the Iran deal
8. Leave Social Security as is
9. Cut taxes
10. ‘Bomb’ and/or ‘take the oil’ from ISIS

Posted by: Don Bacon | Oct 7 2019 19:17 utc | 54

"Great and unmatched wisdom" said to withdraw  from the ridiculous war

Here the irony is the truth, and truth is irony ( that is American standard), otherwise  the true Americans postpone withdrawal to flee from the roof of embassy.

Posted by: arata | Oct 7 2019 19:18 utc | 55

It is always interesting to see how people interpret events.
From my view, it is mostly backwards.
The thread I see runs all the way back to the 1944 Bretton Woods conference.
BW established an international monetary order where the excess foreign currency of any other nation, held by one nation, would be exchanged for gold at a fixed rate.
People who are ignorant think the dollar was standard - it was not. Gold was the reserve.
Fast forward to 1971. Due to Johnson's Great Society and the ongoing costs of the Vietnam war (and Korean conflict before that), the US was running out of gold.
Nixon closes the gold window in 1971 - no more conversion of excess US dollars to US gold.
There is now legitimately no agreed upon international reserve.
1973-1974: Arab Oil Embargo. The Arabs don't like giving up their oil for (worthless) US dollars. One of the most visible signs of rebellion against the US breaking BW.
1978-1979: Iran revolution. The UAE and Saudi Arabia scared s**tless by the prospect of Muslim revolutionaries overthrowing their kingdoms.
Sometime after 1979, the petrodollar standard is born. It is almost 100% certain that the Saudi/UAE/Arab willingness to accept the petrodollar bargain plus recycling of surpluses into US Treasuries is the price for protection against Iran, plus very likely the instigation of the Iraq/Iran war in 1980 (by "good" Saddam).
The US dollar, reinforced by the petrodollar standard, becomes accepted as a foreign exchange reserve itself despite US ongoing devaluation. But the US was a fairly responsible fiscal nation in the period from the 2nd Eisenhower term to Carter: debt to GDP ratios didn't change by double digits even once, although the overall US debt did increase.
No doubt argued by the US negotiators in 1979? 1980? as a sign of future behavior.

Of course, in reality, that was a lie. Reagan's ascension sees 3 straight terms (Bush Sr) of double digit debt to GDP ratio changes; every president since Reagan did the same with the single exception of Clinton (Clinton I was a decrease in ratio of 0.7%, II was a decrease in ratio of 9.0%). W. Bush 1st term was "only" 7% increase in debt to GDP, but W. Bush 2, Obama 1, Obama 2, Trump 1 are all huge jumps.
Fast forward again to today - skipping cool stuff like the Plaza Accords.
Saudi Arabia doesn't sell hardly any oil to the US anymore. They sell a lot more to China. They do still need protection against Iran, but their substantial prop of the petrodollar is looking increasingly vulnerable.
In this larger context - the Kurds and the Syrians are mere pawns. The Saudis clearly believed they could remake their formerly hostile neighbors a la Libya, after that successful "experiment", then they could either harness the ruins or be left with protected flanks while going after the real enemy: Iran.
Any Kurd that believes promises of Americans, Israelis, Saudis, Russians, Chinese whoever is a moron, because they have nothing anybody wants except warm bodies to cause trouble on command. Turkey has a large Kurdish minority and will never willingly let them go. Ditto Syria and Iraq (and Iran, for that matter).
The Kurds are reportedly great people - from many reliable sources - but they've been getting their butts whipped for literally millenia, and that's not changing anytime soon.

Posted by: c1ue | Oct 7 2019 19:36 utc | 56

video of US troop withdrawal here

Posted by: Don Bacon | Oct 7 2019 19:47 utc | 57

I don't trust the warnings/threats coming from Russia, Turkey or the U.S. These three made some kind of deal on Syria, and all the back and forth threats about territorial integrity from Russia, against touching the Kurds from Trump and against Kurdish terror acts from Erdo are ALL BLUSTER and theatre for the press and Syrians. There's an unwritten or shady deal here as no legit deal that compromises Syria's sovereignty is possible without the government of Syria -- period.

☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆

Oh, I just have to single out Don Bacon as the most blatant Trump tool here!

The items on that list @54 are not even half-truths. Total ridiculous fail!

Posted by: Circe | Oct 7 2019 19:52 utc | 58

@54 Don Bacon

I'll give you 2, 4 and 8. The rest is hogwash.

Cut taxes? ...for the rich!

Posted by: Circe | Oct 7 2019 19:56 utc | 59


We still wait for any undisputable proof that the YPG did terroristic attacks against Turkey. They are as real as Assads use of chemical weapons.

Posted by: Hausmeister | Oct 7 2019 19:56 utc | 60

@ Hausmeister 60
Assads use of chemical weapons.
Never happened.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Oct 7 2019 20:02 utc | 61

Don Bacon @54--

Hi Don! Perhaps I should've added the modifier "important," but I'll take the ding if that's the only critique you have of my argument.

Came across what might be considered a strange-bedfellow sort of ally for Trump--experts at Russia's Valdai Club, in this case, Oleg Barabanov, who also co-authored this important perspective just over two years ago. Take a moment to recall one of Trump's lines from his UNGA speech Barabanov cites at the top of his essay:

"If you want democracy, hold on to your sovereignty. And if you want peace, love your nation. Wise leaders always put the good of their own people and their own country first. The future does not belong to globalists. The future belongs to patriots." [My Emphasis]

Take note of the reactions of two globalists, Hillary Clinton and Nancy Pelosi. Their reactions make quite clear how they view Tulsi Gabbard and the prospect for peace at the expense of war. Given Trump's framing, clearly neither Clinton or Pelosi qualify as a patriot. And Putin said there were no longer any ideological conflicts!

The longer, older analysis of what the authors's termed "Trumpism" ought to be reread with a fresh mind after the UNGA, which I intend to do soon. Trump might not be a globalist, but he's certainly a believer in the correctness of the Outlaw US Empire being the only global unilateralist, and also seems to buy into the argument for the "rules based system" allowing/justifying that behavior/illegality. As such, he presents a departure from the designs of the Current Oligarchy and its servants, like Pelosi and Clinton, particularly in what he regards as the only reasons for employing the Outlaw US military I commented upon above.

So, was Trump "right" to throw the Kurds under the bus, or was he genuinely pursuing the actual national interest in disentangling it from its illegal, neverending series of wars in the Persian Gulf Region? Was he being a patriot and repudiating globalists? And if yes, what will be do next? Would promoting HOPE behind the scenes and pulling Outlaw US Empire forces from the region be a betrayal of the Empire's regional vassals, or would he be promoting their security and serving the national interest at the same time? Would such actions on his part cause the Zionists to rethink their behavior and policies? Could such actions be spun to say Trump betrayed Occupied Palestine or helped to enhance its security? IMO, Trump's succeeded in confounding a whole slew of people.

Posted by: karlof1 | Oct 7 2019 20:08 utc | 62

Don Bacon | Oct 7 2019 20:02 utc | 61

"Assads use of chemical weapons.
Never happened.“

Exactly. As terroristic acts of the YPG against Turkey in Turkey never happened.

Posted by: Hausmeister | Oct 7 2019 20:09 utc | 63

Hillary Clinton
‏Verified account @HillaryClinton
7h7 hours ago
Let us be clear: The president has sided with authoritarian leaders of Turkey and Russia over our loyal allies and America’s own interests. His decision is a sickening betrayal both of the Kurds and his oath of office.//

Hill doesn't like it, so you know it's a good move. Hillary made Syria Job-one when she was SecState, with many meetings in Cairo and Istanbul on devising new shadow governments and military forces who were going to create a new Syria. Now it's all down the tubes.
My favorite prospective Syria PM from that era was a guy from Texas. Ghassan Hitto was "elected" prime minister on 18 March 2013 by a narrow margin over former Syrian Arab Republic agricultural minister Assad Mustafa. Hitto resigned on 8 July 2013. A Texas-based businessman [Murphy, TX] Hitto had lived in the US for over 30 years.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Oct 7 2019 20:12 utc | 64

What's everyone getting excited about?

This is not a troop 'pull out' - USA is still in Syria ... and Iraq ... and Afghanistan.

Trump was gonna make peace with 'Rocket Man' - except not.

Trump hates fake news - except when he's making it - like with Venezeula.

Trump wants allies to pay more for defense - but he increased the US military budget also. If Trump is so peace-minded, why did he do that? Trumps SAYS USA are suckers for policing the world - but his actions say otherwise.

I won't belabor the point but I'll add some speculation: I'll bet that Trump sold out the Kurds to get Edogan's support (or quiet acceptance) for the Trump-Jared-Nutanyahoo's "Deal of the Century" Palestinian Peace Plan.

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Oct 7 2019 20:15 utc | 65

I'll bet those ISIS prisoners escape. They'll join their fiends in Idlib, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, or Africa.

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Oct 7 2019 20:18 utc | 66

Will Turkey's incursion/occupation make it easier to smuggle fighters and arms to Idlib?

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Oct 7 2019 20:25 utc | 67

Can we please leave this mention of --> Hillary Clinton the VERY LAST on the dear blog?

Posted by: bjd | Oct 7 2019 20:29 utc | 68

Without showing real credible sources from there I prefer not to believe such stuff.

Posted by: Hausmeister | Oct 7 2019 18:34 utc | 48

That's because you haven't bothered to follow the history, and prefer to believe how nice the Kurds are. They aren't. They're much the same as the rest.

Unlike others, I don't keep records from 2014. The sequence is quite well known, though. Da'ish arrived in Sinjar in 2014. They captured some of the Yazidis, and chased the rest up the mountain, from which they had to be rescued. The Kurds swore the Sunni population would never be allowed back. In 2015 the powers arrived back, but Sunnis were not on the schedule. I remember a recent BBC reportage which complained about how empty Sinjar is. Of course, if one considers what has happened.

Posted by: Laguerre | Oct 7 2019 20:37 utc | 69

@ Hausmeister | Oct 7 2019 18:34 utc | 48

I believe your argument doesn't bear much weight, if any at all. After all, it all boils down to exactly one question which is how to get along with your neighbor. It's not about nation states or any such entity and that is exactly why I, for one, have given up on the Kurds et al. a long time ago. The outright stupidity and ignorance of official Kurdish'dom is mind bogging in its incompetence. Who cares if one's a turkish, syrian ... passport holder? Get along with each others which starts on a individual level, that's it.

But no, the mantra of theirs is: I want my very own nation state now, no matter the cost and the consequences!

Grievances? Sure, there's been plenty. Speaking of native syrian 'rebels': iro Syria was it worth the destruction of the country and it's social fabric? Was it worth the deaths of hundreds of thousands of sons, daughters, wives and husbands? In my book that's a big no! Same is true with the Kurds and any other faction: is/was it worth it? No!

There's people frequenting this bar calling for war. Have they ever been in a war? Why then don't they pick up arms themselves and give it a go? Have they ever experienced the effects of war on a personal basis? Certainly not, as if they did they'd be talking differently.
Disgusting.

Posted by: Hmpf | Oct 7 2019 20:38 utc | 70

@49karlof1

Glad to read you again even if we disagree on some issues.

I agree with you that there are clouds forming on the economy behind the scenes and on your view of the Dem plan to push Warren as the nominee as a ruse to scr ew the Left again.

However, on Syria I must disagree. Trump is all in with Zionists and will never allow Iran to be part of any plan on Syria.

Trump is hiding cards. U.S. withdrawing is just a distraction/facade. The chessboard arrangement is what matters and the U.S. is moving the pieces it wants in place for the desired outcome.

Finally, one more thing: I'm counting on people everywhere to be mindful of the following: Fool me once; shame on you. Fool me twice; shame on me!

More than ever in the near future, this wisdom will be put to the test on all levels: domestic and international.

Let's hope everyone learned their lesson well cause karma's a bitch and Trump is a big part of it.

Also, no matter what happens politically, there are inescapable hard times on the horizon as the piper must be paid for the economic and environmental irresponsibilty. This is unavoidable, but add Trump to the mix and it will be much more painful and intolerable.

Posted by: Circe | Oct 7 2019 20:42 utc | 71

@ karlof1 62
You ask a lot of questions trying to understand Trump. Good luck on that, where the questions involve nuances.
Being a Thoreauvian I tend toward 'keep it simple.'
Simply put, Trump is adhering to George Washington's position as stated in his Farewell Address:
"It is our true policy to steer clear of permanent alliance with any portion of the foreign world"
Any portion includes Kurds, BTW.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Oct 7 2019 20:55 utc | 72

@70 Hmpf

There are different ways to initiate war, for instance: a) starting it oneself with another or other parties, or b) luring other parties based on a false pretext into a combustible situation that triggers a war intended to benefit you.

The U.S. can't exist without one or the other, lately opting for b).

War is a made-in-the U.S.A. profiteering racket.

Posted by: Circe | Oct 7 2019 21:08 utc | 73

Jon said, "The only ally he (Trump) has in this fight are the regular folks and I don’t think that would be enough to save him in the end".

As predicted, Trump has been regularly screwing the regular folks with "Austerity Measures" as domestic policy. His domestic policy hurts workers, the working poor and the poor.

Some of the regular folks are Democrats already and some of the MAGA's are beginning to feel the pain in their asses.

The best thing about Trump, is that he upsets the status quo on Foreign Policy.

Strange, that whole thing with the assholemustachio warmonger John "Plato's Retreat" Bolton.

Praised the dickead in Campaign mode. Hires the sob, then fires the sob.

Posted by: fastfreddy | Oct 7 2019 21:10 utc | 74

Don Bacon | Oct 7 2019 20:55 utc | 72

"Simply put, Trump is adhering to George Washington's position as stated in his Farewell Address:
"It is our true policy to steer clear of permanent alliance with any portion of the foreign world"
Any portion includes Kurds, BTW."
As a non-US citizen of a European country I love this clarification of the purpose of NATO. It points to realism.

Hmpf | Oct 7 2019 20:38 utc | 70

Can it be that you did not get it yet that the Kurds abolished the claim of an own independent state? Not just yesterday.

Posted by: Hausmeister | Oct 7 2019 21:10 utc | 75

c1ue @56

I'm with you and your timeline but for one inconvenient detail that you brought up twice. It's conceivable that Saudi Arabia and the other kingdoms might have been in fear of Islamic fundamentalist uprisings - in most cases it would have to be Shia, hence Iran *might* have a hand in them but might not have. In any case Iran (the Persians) has not invaded any other country since around the time of the New Testament. Hence I disagree that Iran represented an actual military threat to Saudi Arabia, and I do not think that they do now either, minus all the U.S. troublemaking in the region and Saudi Arabia being within reach of Houthi weapons, which they learned to build from Iran.

I think you're on the money with the rest of it - and would add that U.S. policy toward Iran has been hostile since the Shah was deposed and the oil was nationalized, and of course the hostages and Ronnie Raygun's October Surprise, but Iran has never acted aggressively against actual U.S. government or economic interests. In the time since they overthrew the brutal Shah, we've shot down their airliners, assisted Israel in assassinating their nuclear scientists, infected their grid with STUXNET, sanctioned them in every possible way even before the alleged nuclear threat and all sorts of other nasty stuff. But they wouldn't represent the slightest threat to anyone, including Israel if the U.S. stopped this bs.

Posted by: Mark Warner | Oct 7 2019 21:19 utc | 76

Don Bacon @72: Trump is adhering to George Washington's position ... "steer clear of permanent alliance[s]"

OMG, you've gotta be kidding Don.

USA is an empire. And we are "permanently aligned" with every state in the Empire - whether they like it or not. Look at the European poodles, Japan, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, etc. Then there's 5 eyes and Israel.

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Oct 7 2019 21:19 utc | 77

Posted by: Don Bacon | Oct 7 2019 20:55 utc | 72

Coming from a country made up of foreigners this is a bit rich. How long do you have to live in the US not to be foreign? One generation, two, three, and what is his alliance to his wife?

:-))

Posted by: somebody | Oct 7 2019 21:24 utc | 78

There are a lot complaints that this withdrawal policy allows ISIS some freedoms. Maybe it does perhaps not, but in any case we should remember that ISIS (formerly The Caliphate) was a US creation supported by the US. (perhaps still is) . . Sy Hersh alerted us long ago:

On March 5, 2007, Seymour Hersh wrote an article in the New Yorker: The Redirection -- Is the Administration's new policy benefitting our enemies in the war on terrorism? . here

To undermine Iran, which is predominantly Shiite, the Bush Administration has decided, in effect, to reconfigure its priorities in the Middle East. In Lebanon, the Administration has coöperated with Saudi Arabia’s government, which is Sunni, in clandestine operations that are intended to weaken Hezbollah, the Shiite organization that is backed by Iran.
The U.S. has also taken part in clandestine operations aimed at Iran and its ally Syria. A by-product of these activities has been the bolstering of Sunni extremist groups that espouse a militant vision of Islam and are hostile to America and sympathetic to Al Qaeda.
. . .The new American policy, in its broad outlines, has been discussed publicly. In testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee in January, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said that there is “a new strategic alignment in the Middle East,” separating “reformers” and “extremists”; she pointed to the Sunni states as centers of moderation, and said that Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah were “on the other side of that divide.”

Seven years later, Senator Rand Paul in The Hill: here
Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) said Sunday that the Sunni militants taking over Iraq have quickly gained power because the United States has armed their group in Syria.
“I think we have to understand first how we got here,” he said on CNN’s “State of the Union.” “We have been arming [the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria] ISIS in Syria.”
ISIS, an al Qaeda offshoot, has been collaborating with the Syrian rebels whom the Obama administration has been arming in their efforts to overthrow Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Paul explained.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Oct 7 2019 21:26 utc | 79

Ahem.

Is it just me or is Erdogan saying "Please hold me back".

Erdogan has not risked the life of one Turkish soldier in the Syrian conflict. Turkey fought via proxies.

Either he bombs (risky should the Syrian army/Russia do something about it) or he manages to move proxies from Idlib.

So the cynical play may be to get Kurdish fighters to finish off the Idlib jihadis everyone wants to get rid of.

Posted by: somebody | Oct 7 2019 21:29 utc | 80

bjd @68--

I'd be happy to do so, but she must drop dead for me to comply as it appears she's going to become a POTUS candidate again along with Romney for the Rs.

Don Bacon @72--

Thanks for your reply! The problem of course is that to get answers one must ask questions. I recall Stiglitz's paper on Perfect Information and how it was far more relevant for political economy than neoliberal economics. Clearly, the more information gathered the closer to reality becomes the theory, and it's very Socratic. Today the problem is the amount of time available for gathering information, processing, then formulating and the overall amount of data available. Trying to find the value for Why in geopolitical algebra is often daunting but beats trying to beat the computer at chess.

Circe @71--

Thanks for your reply! I'll add Crooke's current essay to those published by the Valdai Club I linked to above as a place to find answers that in turn generate further questions. And this surely beats daytime soaps for spending one's time and engaging the brain. The future will tell us what it holds in store at its own chosen time.

Posted by: karlof1 | Oct 7 2019 21:46 utc | 81

Information clearing house have posted ‘b’ s blog, that’s good to see, reflecting the high credabilty of this site and it’s comments! From all sides.

Posted by: Mark2 | Oct 7 2019 21:47 utc | 82

@62 Karlof1

Trump just ended a press conference after signing a Japan/US trade deal. He took a few questions afterwards. Here is the video. Questions start at approx 55:00 and he was his usual self-aggrandizing self. Of particular importance to this discussion begins at 1:04:10, which would answer your questions of "So, was Trump "right" to throw the Kurds under the bus, or was he genuinely pursuing the actual national interest in disentangling it from its illegal, neverending series of wars in the Persian Gulf Region? Was he being a patriot and repudiating globalists? And if yes, what will be do next?...." should you choose to believe what he says.

From the 55 minute mark on, he does go into some detail on China, Turkey and Syria, but most intriguing are his remarks past the 1:04:10 mark.

I know you hate to watch yo daddy Trump on the tubes, but these 10, 15 minutes might be worth your while.

b4real

Posted by: b4real | Oct 7 2019 21:56 utc | 83

Posted by: karlof1 | Oct 7 2019 21:46 utc | 80

US foreign policy has become meaningless.

There has been a tectonic shift. The comments section is even more interesting than the article itself.

Posted by: somebody | Oct 7 2019 22:01 utc | 84

I see people quoting the new US line "rules based order", which, as Lavrov pointed out at the UNGA, is the US trying to overthrow international law, in favor of rules which the US invents as it goes along, and then enforces, as it pleases.

The "Kurds" cannot be betrayed, since they are traitors to their countries. The US is not allowed, under international law, to make alliances with minority tribes in order to overthrow the national governments under which they reside.

I can guarantee you that no foreign country would be allowed to come into South Dakota and ally with the Lakota tribe in order to protect their land and water from the rapacious oil companies that the US government is allowing to trespass on, and destroy their lands and waters, treaty or no treaty. All of a sudden, the US would rediscover international law.

The Kurds are not the majority of Syria, even in "Rojalva", although they have been ethnically cleansing the Arabs from their villages and lands. They have no right to stake out a claim to an ethnically pure area of Syria, any more than the KKK should be allowed to stake out an ethnically pure area in Mississippi, or Alabama. Other people live there, too, and they have the right to stay.

Also, of course, the US cares naught for the Kurds and it is ridiculous for us to pretend that they do.

Posted by: wagelaborer | Oct 7 2019 22:04 utc | 85

Oh.

Turkey assures Iran its operation in northern Syria is 'temporary'

Posted by: somebody | Oct 7 2019 22:04 utc | 86

Trump has walked off the reservation. long term US / Israel policy is to divide the greater middle east into a mosaic of hostile mini states according to the Oded Yinnon Plan, Google it.

So far Iraq is loosely divided into three. The second objective of the Iraq war was to make Iraq Israel friendly but instead it became Iran friendly, an unintended consequence. Syria was next on the list. Once Syria was divided Israel could claim there was no successor state to hand back the stolen Golan Heights to and become the regional hegemon.

Of course Israel hoped a future war against Iran would destroy both the arabs and Iran.

Unfortunately for Israel the parasite always destroyed the host.

Trump will lose all support from the creepy ZioCon Israel firsters in his own party and the rapture cult 'christians' awaiting WW3 and the return of Christ to the earth.

Posted by: Paul | Oct 7 2019 22:14 utc | 87

One particularly outstanding CLOWN on this board said this...

Greenlighting the Turkish invasion presents problems for Syria, especially if matched by de facto US presence in the oil fields. Also, the implicit declaration that the jihadis can take sanctuary with the Turks also raises tough issues.

It is unclear what Putin can offer Turkey to keep them from this US turn.

Endless war in Syria is a defeat for the Syrian national government as well as Putin.

Partition would a defeat for Assad but it may be his only way out.

In LOLing over the years at various such delusional 'predictions' and 'analyses' emanating from mushroom-eaters at various imperialist stink-tanks...clear-headed folks everywhere have come up with the dismissive term WISHCASTING...

Posted by: flankerbandit | Oct 7 2019 22:20 utc | 88

Erlindur @ 2:

One simple thing President Erdogan could do is send the ISIS fighters and their families to China and China rewards Turkey with inclusion in its Belt Road Initiative.

A huge number of ISIS fighters in Idlib and other parts of Syria come from China (Xinjiang region) and China wants them all back.

Glad to see that Jenan Moussa's documentary "Undercover in Idlib" is still available with English subtitles on Youtube. The documentary was made in 2017 but it may still be relevant. Central Asian and Chinese Uyghur terrorists were filmed living in the formerly Christian village of Jisr al Shugurr in Idlib province.

Posted by: Jen | Oct 7 2019 22:24 utc | 89

This from ‘south front ‘ I found very worth watching !https://southfront.org/syrian-war-report-october-7-2019-idlib-militants-retreating-to-turkish-border/
All sides are making moves.
In my opinion Trump sucks (no cred)
I’m with Putin, all day long.

Posted by: Mark2 | Oct 7 2019 22:38 utc | 90

@Posted by: Mark W. | Oct 7 2019 22:28 utc | 89

Mine also dissapeared...would like to know the same as you....

Posted by: Elora Danan | Oct 7 2019 22:40 utc | 91

quote from ttg at sst that i agree with ... "The abandonment is not the worst part of this policy decision. It is the decision to turn over the jihadis captured by US, YPG and SDF forces over the last few years to Turkey... just in time for Erdogan's announced invasion of northeast Syria. Those jihadis will be rearmed and sent into battle across northern Syria, including Idlib, by Erdogan."

more shuffling of chairs on the deck of the titanic as i see it... usa-israel and friends are still on track with the bullshit which include @1 dhs comment about maintaining control of the oil fields in western syria.. usa foreign policy continues in the gutter it has been in for what seems like forever... anyone trying to parse what trump has to say might want to take up a gig as a psychiatrist... good luck with that...

Posted by: james | Oct 7 2019 22:44 utc | 92

mark w and elora danan.. no probs on my end... you might want to be consistent with e mail data.. i don't know the parameters b has for the site..

Posted by: james | Oct 7 2019 22:45 utc | 93

@Posted by: james | Oct 7 2019 22:45 utc | 94

I have been consistent with email data, james, thanks...

Posted by: Elora Danan | Oct 7 2019 22:53 utc | 94

Anybody noticed that it's Putin's birthday today?

Posted by: CE | Oct 7 2019 22:55 utc | 95

@86Paul

Trump will lose all support from the creepy ZioCon Israel firsters in his own party and the rapture cult 'christians' awaiting WW3 and the return of Christ to the earth.

I cannot believe the stuff I'm reading here. Evangelical Christians are the most stoic Trump supporters and defenders who stuck with him over every scandal.

This is why I'm convinced the pullout of U.S. forces is a distraction from an ulterior strategy. Trump will never betray Evangelicals and Zionists. NEVER.

Of course Israel hoped a future war against Iran would destroy both the arabs and Iran.

Unfortunately for Israel the parasite always destroyed the host.

Unfortunately? I think you're mixing up which is the parasite.

Again, Trump will never turn on his Zio Evangelical base therefore there's an ulterior plan with Syria. Count on it.

Posted by: Circe | Oct 7 2019 23:10 utc | 96

I believe the Kurds are also an invading force within this zone which is part of why Erdogan is chafing at their presence.

He is providing cover for Trump to vacate.

I think it would be true to say that Assad is not intolerant of other ethnic and religious groups, not to say he is a saint.

Seems to me this is a fairly optimum maneuver by Trump - perhaps luck. Meanwhile the dems continue to play the clowns with their faux impeachment. Trump needs to go on offense.

One of the perks of dumping Bolton. Certainly he is huddling with Graham, Rubio et al. When it is added-up, Trump has made some decent headway. They will be coming for him this week. They are drowning in their own filth the more that they conspire to over throw. I hope Trump is staying clear of windows and convertibles.

Posted by: jared | Oct 7 2019 23:10 utc | 97

b4real @82--

Thanks for your reply and link! Some of Trump's remarks I'd read on Twitter. It's quite remarkable how Trump twists reality in a very Rovian manner; however, if he believes his own words, he's just deluding himself. I found Crooke's short essay linked above to be quite helpful along with the short article he links to. All build on the Valdai Club essayist's hypothesis whether deliberate or not. So, that entire collective has good explanatory value. IMO, based on his remarks, he would support the "neighborhood" arriving at a collective security agreement that would obviate the need for any US military presence. IMO, Trump withholds as much of his contraryism as he can get away with to keep his political enemies off balance. His continual promotion of the Outlaw US Empire ceasing its spendthrift past is curious as it's not reflected in reality.

A few interesting tidbits just now surfacing for me. Esper called Shoigu to tell him of withdrawal. Note the similarity in talking points between Pelosi and Graham and their tacit acknowledgment of Daesh as an Outlaw US Empire tool whereas the Kurds weren't. Much more will surface by the time dawn arrives at my home tomorrow. Currently, it seems a quiet night in the Kurdish area of Syria as Turkey has yet to actually invade, although the reports are that most Imperial Stormtroopers have vacated the area.

Posted by: karlof1 | Oct 7 2019 23:16 utc | 98

V

Posted by: Circe | Oct 7 2019 23:25 utc | 99

@99 jared

One of the perks of dumping Bolton. Certainly he is huddling with Graham, Rubio et al.

Graham and Rubio have been defending Trump on the impeachment threat!!! WHY DO YOU THINK THAT IS???

Trump got rid of Bolton because his comments comparing North Korea to Libya ruined Trump's hopes of fooling Kim into giving up the nukes. That's all folks. Stop with the delusion that Trump is taking the Neocons down!

Posted by: Circe | Oct 7 2019 23:26 utc | 100

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