The Crisis Over The Attack On Saudi Oil Infrastructure Is Over - We Now Wait For the Next One
The crisis about the Yemeni drone and cruise missile attack on two Saudi oil installations is for now over.
The Saudis and the U.S. accuse Iran of being behind the "act of war" as Secretary of State Pompeo called it. The Saudis have bombed Yemen with U.S. made bombs since 2015. One wonders how Pompeo is calling that.
The Yemeni forces aligned with the Houthi Ansarallah do not deny that their drones and cruise missiles are copies of Iranian designs. But they insist that they are built in Yemen and fired from there.
President Trump will not launch a military attack against Iran. Neither will the Saudis or anyone else. Iran has deterred them by explaining that any attack on Iran will be responded to by waging all out war against the U.S. and its 'allies' around the Persian Gulf.
Trump sent Pompeo to Saudi Arabia to hold hands with the Saudi gangster family who call themselves royals. Pompeo of course tried to sell them more weapons. On his flight back he had an uncharacteristically dovish Q & A with reporters. Pompeo said:
I was here in an act of diplomacy. While the foreign minister of Iran is threatening all-out war and to fight to the last American, we’re here to build out a coalition aimed at achieving peace and a peaceful resolution to this. That’s my mission set, what President Trump certainly wants me to work to achieve, and I hope that the Islamic Republic of Iran sees it the same way. There’s no evidence of that from his statement, but I hope that that’s the case.
The crisis is over and we are back to waiting for the next round. A few days or weeks from now we will see another round of attacks on oil assets on the western side of the Persian Gulf. Iran, with the help of its friends, can play this game again and again and it will do so until the U.S. gives up and lifts the sanctions against that country.
The Houthi will continue to attack the Saudis until they end their war on Yemen and pay reparations.
As long as no U.S. forces get killed the U.S. will not hit back because Trump wants to be reelected. An all out war around the Persian Gulf would drive energy prices into the stratosphere and slump the global economy. His voters would not like that.
In our earlier pieces on the Abqaiq attack we said that the attacked crude oil stabilization plant in Abquaq had no air defense. Some diligent researchers have since found that there was a previously unknown Patriot air-defense unit in the area which was itself protected by several short range air-defense cannons:
Michael Duitsman @DuitsyWasHere - 7:02 UTC · Sep 18, 2019
On paper, the point air defenses at the Abqaiq oil processing facility are rather formidable... by 1995 standards, at least.
A battery of Shahine SAMs (French system from the early 1980's)
3 or 4 anti-aircraft gun sections, each with 2 twin 35mm cannons and a fire control unit
bigger
But one Patriot system covers only 120° of the horizon. The attacking drones came from a western directions while Saudi Arabia's enemies are to its east and south. The older Patriot 2 version the Saudis have is also not of much use against low flying drones and cruise missiles.
There is also the oddity that the Patriot unit's radar system was shut off.
Putin is a Virus @PutinIsAVirus - 4:53 UTC · Sep 19, 2019No patriot radars have been active in recent months (at least not consistently) in the vicinity of the plant, not in the short range required to detect low flying cruise missiles or drones. Closest installation is in Barhain.
(using Sentinel 1 CSAR sat for detection)
bigger
Satellites with synthetic-aperture radar can 'see' the radar of Patriot and other air-defense system. None was detected around Abqaiq.
The explanation for that is likely rather trivial. Colonel Pat Lang was stationed in Saudi Arabia as a military liaison officer. As he recently remarked:
Never underestimate the feckless laziness of the Saudis. In my experience they turn off all ATC and air defense systems that require manning or watch keeping when they find them inconvenient as on the weekend. IMO if Ansarallah did this they will do something similar soon to prove they are responsible.
Abqaiq was attacked on the night of Friday to Saturday. That is the weekend in Saudi Arabia.
Posted by b on September 19, 2019 at 18:12 UTC | Permalink
« previous page | next page »I see a cartoon. Trump, Pompeo and company in a prison cell swigging from liquor bottles with the caption: Locked up and Loaded.
Posted by: Lochearn | Sep 20 2019 1:07 utc | 102
Sol Invictus @41:
"I don't think the Israelis were spying on us," Trump said. "My relationship with Israel has been great...
Tillerson: Netanyahu 'played' Trump with misinformation
... Israeli officials would use misinformation if they believed it was necessary to win U.S. officials over to their side of an issue.“They did that with the president on a couple of occasions, to persuade him that ‘We’re the good guys, they’re the bad guys.’ We later exposed it to the president so he understood, ‘You’ve been played,’ ” Tillerson said. “It bothers me that an ally that’s that close and important to us would do that to us.”
<> <> <> <> <> <> <>
Despite being shown - more than once - that he was "played", Trump isn't inclined to suspect any nefarious activity by the Israelis. Says all you need to know about Trump and the axis of stupid (Trump-Netanyahu-MbS).
Posted by: Jackrabbit | Sep 20 2019 1:17 utc | 103
The Carter Doctrine was a policy proclaimed by President of the United States Jimmy Carter in his State of the Union Address on January 23, 1980. Given recent developments, I guess we can say that the Carter Doctrine is dead. Or just dying?
Let our position be absolutely clear: An attempt by any outside force to gain control of the Persian Gulf region will be regarded as an assault on the vital interests of the United States of America, and such an assault will be repelled by any means necessary, including military force.
Posted by: Don Bacon | Sep 20 2019 1:18 utc | 104
@105 lochearn.. good image for that quote from the twitter kid..
Posted by: james | Sep 20 2019 1:19 utc | 105
@82 Sasha
Thanks very much for that link! I figured it would be an Engdahl piece before I even moused over the link. It's an excellent overview of the US fracking industry. In fact, let's just repeat the link here on page 2, because it's so crucial to understand that not only does the US not enjoy self-sufficiency in oil, but it's actually running a Ponzi scheme that's already started to collapse and is scheduled to go bust between 2020-2022:
The New American Oil Empire Built on Sand - F. William Engdahl
I had thought we had until 2023 before all the faith-backed loans matured but it looks like they will stage in sooner.
The Fed will bail out the big players, and they will "consolidate" with the small bankrupt players, and the whole thing will be swept under the rug. But it will not be possible to fabricate actual oil production, even with new Fed money, because the production just isn't there.
In fact, apparently in all that frantic activity that our good friend @ Don Bacon has seen in the Permian basin recently, it turns out that over 1,000 new wells weren't reported in 2018 (against the law, but never mind), because they were the additional, secret wells required simply to inflate production enough to get the next tranche of loans, in order to stay operating.
The Fracking business is what's happening in the US, not to be confused with the Oil Business, such as various nations around the world conduct.
This, my friends, is one thing to look forward to in the second Trump term: the collapse of the US global energy-dominance fantasy doctrine. It will enter the Museum of Shitty Plans to join other such dreams as Oded Yinon, a Palestinian-free Palestine, and the new Zionist homeland in Crimea.
Posted by: Grieved | Sep 20 2019 1:32 utc | 106
Sputnik is reporting Saudi coalition attacking targets in Yemen. It's where those nefarious Iranians are, after all. Expect some retaliatory response.
Posted by: the pessimist | Sep 20 2019 1:41 utc | 107
@103 "Trump could easily get out of this mess by letting Iran export oil again."
Don't hold your breath. Trump has boxed himself in. He can't relax sanctions because it would look like weakness. And the Trump's 'strategy' is based on the assumption that sooner or later the Iranian people will turn on their government.
Looks like we are going to see more sabotage attacks before the equation changes.
Posted by: dh | Sep 20 2019 1:49 utc | 108
No, Mr Bacon, you inferred that. I'm sure hildebeast would have been worse. All I'm saying is that if this is the best we can do, it ain't good enough. Maybe, at some future time, someone with at least a modicum of common sense will arise. So, may I infer by your comment that you think Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Libya and possibly Venezuela, China and Russia invasions are good? Maybe at some point, the US might grow up and join the world. Instead of "Democracy from Above"? I'm not actually posting here to denigrate anyone or hijack the thread. Thank you for your time.
Posted by: Shadow | Sep 20 2019 2:03 utc | 109
@ 109
. . .from another description of the shale oil scam: "Some have called shale oil a Ponzi scheme."
The wheels come off shale oil . .here
Pioneer Natural Resources CEO Scott Sheffield said that the industry is running out of so-called Tier-1 acreage. That’s oil-speak for “sweet spots.” Those are the circumscribed areas in shale deposits within which extraction costs are low enough to justify drilling.
Outside the sweet spots there is oil, but it is much more costly to extract. The industry at one time likened shale oil production to a manufacturing operation, claiming the one could drill practically anywhere in a shale deposit and get oil out profitably. No one is making such claims credibly any more.
A lot depends upon the oil price, which must keep rising to facilitate shale oil deliveries.
Posted by: Don Bacon | Sep 20 2019 2:08 utc | 110
Related article:
China ‘Narrowing Gap’ With US Technologically a ‘Holy S**t’ Moment - Former Seal McRaven
This is an ex-Navy Seal, Americans. You're not going to be anti-patriotic and call him a liar, will you?
Public figures are fair game for derision and ridicule. Fellow posters, I believe are entitled to dissent and possibly, a succinct repudiation of their thoughts. With logic, not emotions. I salute all the posters here at moa for their intelligent, illuminative and erudite comments. B, thank you for this website and all the truthseekers out there.
Posted by: Shadow | Sep 20 2019 2:26 utc | 112
@76 / @102 Jen is confusing the Baal Shem Tov with Sabbatai Zevi who is said to have among his followers the grandfather of Ibn Abn Al Wahhab..
Posted by: Lozion | Sep 20 2019 2:29 utc | 113
I agree with Lozion at 116
I watched a David Icke video on youtube the other day, that was posted here by someone else, however it was easier find the link in my history, than this site's. Describes Sabbatai Zevy and the rise of Sabbatism, which imo describes our various religions to a tee.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yKEqcLzMYdo
Posted by: aye, myself & me | Sep 20 2019 3:06 utc | 114
For any MoA data crack-heads - because I know you're jonesing for some numbers just like me:
Orbital Insight article: Orbital Insight Energy Spotlight: Houthi Abqaiq Attack
OI is one of those pay-for-data-and-analysis sites for our wealthy elite overseers. The newsletter articles are kind of a promo, I suppose. No idea what the paid stuff looks like - I'm still about five years behind in sending B a few bucks for all his time and efforts. Nonetheless, the short OI article has some interesting oily numbers that are worth sharing. A couple of bullet points from the summary:
*Saudi Arabia’s largest export facility, Ras Tanura, has 7 days of inventory according to Orbital Insight tank inventory observations and average AIS tracking based loadings of 3.4mm/d. This is a key metric as Saudi Arabia seeks to return to normal production levels.*Global inventories are unevenly distributed among key consumers — with China in the best shape, South Korea and Japan at low levels — owing to ongoing Iranian export sanctions
A graph at the end of the article shows both Saudi and Iranian crude inventories of crude at almost 100mm bbls each.
Abqaiq stabilized crude goes to Ras Tanura for export, but a good portion of it also goes to Saudi refineries for domestic consumption (~4mm bbl/day). Other Saudi oilfields also contribute to domestic refineries. Khurais stabilized oil/gas usually goes through the East-West Pipeline to Yanbu for export or refining.
Posted by: PavewayIV | Sep 20 2019 3:32 utc | 115
vk @114: Holy Sh*t Moment
It's only a holy sh*t moment if the West chooses conflict over cooperation. But Western power structure has decided instead to challenge the Russia-Chinese alliance (as laid out by Kissinger in his seminal 2014 WSJ Op-Ed that I've referenced many times). So China's advances have to be labeled a military threat.
Hyping a new "missile gap" so a dumbed-down, too complacent populace continues to allow establishment adventurism.
That's why I write "axis of the stupid" in my comment @106. Useless Middle-east Wars and the new Cold War has already caused a colossal mis-allocation of resources and if WWIII breaks out much more will be wasted.
Posted by: Jackrabbit | Sep 20 2019 3:35 utc | 116
That the saudis are the best ally of the US is incredible...
Posted by: Mikeee | Sep 20 2019 4:17 utc | 119
The best news site on the Internet.. So many theories so few facts..
facts seem more scarce than oil and quite a bit more valuable.
Why is there an increasingly strong propaganda that alternative energy is not possible?
I predict the elites will get government to pay contractors to invade space, capture and colonize the sun, and after the elite copyright and patent photons, the elite will tell its puppets in government to impose on the governed at the sun, a law that criminalizes anyone who allows the elite owned copyrighted and patented photons, to reach Iran. Good night.
Posted by: snake | Sep 20 2019 4:38 utc | 120
Peter AU 1 @38: Another source of supplies ... A million or more Yemenis live in mostly oppressive conditions in Saudi Arabia, many of them in their homelands along the Yemen border. Some of them are surely helping Yemen fight off the hated invaders, taking supplies from Saudi weapons dumps poorly guarded by underpaid and easily bribed foreigners, many of them Yemenis. Transport across the vast, mountainous Saudi/Yemen border is also unlikely to be a problem.
Posted by: fairleft | Sep 20 2019 4:44 utc | 121
PavewayIV @118--
Thanks ever so much for linking that report! Lots of info to take away and chew. Here's one aspect that caught my eye:
"Orbital Insight has observed decreasing inventories in the U.S. Permian basin in line with aggressive draws occurring in the U.S. It is critical to note that U.S. export infrastructure is maxed out and investor concerns around shale profitability are causing drilling slowdowns. The result is that regardless of an SPR release, the U.S. will be hard-pressed to export any additional oil into the world market. An SPR release would allow some U.S. import rejection, freeing oil to be purchased on global markets, much of which will not be positioned to reach key consumers in a timely way." [My Emphasis]
An important note about the SPR--it contains mostly inexpensive heavy-sour crude from Venezuela that's not the prime choice for most US-based refiners. The report also confirms my own assessment that damage occurred but wasn't nearly as massive any many initially assumed (Go back and read my commentary if you dispute this as I never gave an assessment of damage until now), which is why I advocated as quick a second strike as possible--Yes, I very much want Ansarullah to prevail and for Yemen to be freed from the same terrorist scourge Syria was afflicted with.
Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 20 2019 4:51 utc | 122
@ peter and @ karlof1... hey guys.. i have been rather busy and missed your earlier posts... thanks for the ongoing comments and insights from you both! putin has a sense of humour - another characteristic i like about him..
@ paveway.. visit moa more often!
Posted by: james | Sep 20 2019 5:14 utc | 123
karlof1
Have been doing a little research in another direction and run onto this.
https://www.arab-oil-naturalgas.com/crude-oil-sweetening/
The spheroid pressure vessels the US market as damaged in their sat pics recieve the hot crude after it has been through the distillation towers which take off the unwanted compounds and light volatiles.
After cooling the remaining lights stay in their liquid form and are shipped as part of the crude.
In some of my earlier comments, I have mentioned the heavy wall thickness used in some oil infrastructure. The main reason for this appears to be corrosion, so wall thickness would depend somewhat on the corrosiveness of the raw crude plus design life. The bulk of the corrosive compounds are taken off during stabilization.
Posted by: Peter AU 1 | Sep 20 2019 5:30 utc | 124
Perhaps steven t johnson #57, both Iran and Yemen are fully aware that they are being warred on by the FUKUSA and Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Perhaps the occasional retaliatory attack will continue until the war eds.
What are the clear signals that FUKUSA and Saudis have ended the war?
RETURN TO STATUS QUO: Iran - Return to JCPOA, end all sanctions provide generous restorations for social loss and disruption. (pay for the illegal sanctions is what I mean).
For Yemen - reparations and restorations from all warring states that directly and indirectly devastated their country, remove all jihadis from Yemeni soil, rebuild every piece of infrastructure, (roads, hospitals, schools, houses, water supply and purification plants, compensation for every dead civilian and soldier, compensation for all lost agricultural production.
Now that is where I would start and I recall that is what was expected of European warmakers for the last hundred or so years ago. Until that time I guess we should expect the Yemenis to continue to demonstrate their military and aviation excellence.
Posted by: uncle tungsten | Sep 20 2019 5:58 utc | 125
It occurs to me that the Houthis started the rapid improvement in capabilities around the time they disposed of Saleh and resolved their internal disputes. Very rapid improvement since then. It would be interesting to get to know the people behind that, making it happen. Is Seulimani in there somewhere? Nasrallah and his minions? I'll bet.
Posted by: Bemildred | Sep 19 2019 23:31 utc | 87
The critical factor was the US threats to Iran. Under Obama Iran had a vested strategic interest in keeping at arms distance from Yemen - any overt help to Yemen would result in strategic threats to Iran; the risk to Iran would be too great. After Trump pulled unilaterally out of the JCPOA and threw back ever more and mare sanctions on Iran, the strategic interest of Iran in holding off Yemen was transformed into a strategic interest in assisting Yemen as a way of putting pressure on the US. Once the US put really high pressure on Iran and tried to cut Iranian oil exports to zero, the steady stream of technology flow to the Houthis suddenly became a mighty river, quickly leading to a huge surge in capability.
With every turn of the screw against Iran, we can clearly see stepwise advances in technology, quality, quantity, range and performance of Houthi weapons. The timeline of Houthi advances set against the US pressures on Iran shows this with crystal clarity.
Beyond question, if Trump had never withdrawn from JCPOA the Houthi attack on Abqaik would have been impossible.
Posted by: BM | Sep 20 2019 8:40 utc | 126
High definition photos of a damaged Quds-1 and TJ-100 motors side by side. Identical motors.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EEwicmCU4AACLqP.jpg:large
Official visit to a MAPNA Group factory 2016. Quds 1 or TJ-100 motor and others being inspected.
https://twitter.com/fab_hinz/status/1174770099133136897
MAPNA Group. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MAPNA_Group
Photos of the official visit appear at this Iranian site dated August 2016. Apparently there was an article in Tasnim but I have been unable to find it.
http://www.al-vefagh.com/News/163238.html
In the original Houthi strike thread @59 and @81, Flanker bandit did some calculations based on the Quds 1 using the TJ-100 engine.
Posted by: Peter AU 1 | Sep 20 2019 10:10 utc | 127
A few photos of the damage beginning to appear. One in this Rueters article.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudi-aramco-khurais/saudi-aramco-confident-full-output-from-khurais-to-resume-by-end-of-september-idUSKBN1W50ZI?il=0
Another here with the US flag flying high above the Arab American Company's facility. No doubt the Americans would like to do away with the Arab part and shorten the name to Amco.
https://www.ciel.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/refinery-109025.jpg
Posted by: Peter AU 1 | Sep 20 2019 10:45 utc | 128
In case you ever wonder where the bunny stands, do always remember his claim: "The Empire is the protagonist (IMO)".
It is his job to gently steer people here into support of that empire. There are several others posting to these discussion threads as well (the donkey persona, for instance), but most others are incompetent at their job (they are mostly Americans and American wannabees, after all) and painfully conspicuous in their service to the empire. The bunny persona, on the other hand, is more patient and takes his time earning the readers' trust by regurgitating some of the things that the reader can identify as truth. Only after investing such efforts to gain the readers' trust does the bunny persona deliver his pro empire ideological payloads.
So, dear reader, am I arguing for you to trust no one online? Indeed, I am, though that is not really so much a hardship as you might at first think. There is only one person you should trust, and that is me.
Just kidding!
Don't trust me either. The only person you should trust online is yourself. There are no gods here. No online superheroes. The closest you will find to an Internet Superman is Julian Assange, and he is alone in a cell with is mind being slowly and agonizingly lyserged away with CIA chemicals. Everyone who pretends to that position and is not in the cell next to Assange is a fraud, because that is what happens to those whose ideas and words and actions are a threat to the empire's plans.
So, dear readers, develop your bullshit filters to where you can trust them and don't look online for saviors, prophets, or messiahs because they do not exist. You, dear reader, are the only savior the world needs, but you can do no world saving while in the thrall of online frauds.
Lest you doubt that you are besieged by frauds online, remind yourself how much the empire's military operations cost, then ask yourself if the empire would invest that much while neglecting the marketing of those operations to those who must pay for them (you). The empire desperately needs your buy-in for its support of the imperial proxy forces in Oil Land (Saudis, Israelis, head-chopping freaks), and you can see the empire's marketing efforts right here in this thread. It is your responsibility to humanity, dear readers, to make sure that the empire's marketing budget is wasted.
Posted by: William Gruff | Sep 20 2019 10:58 utc | 129
@karlof1 26
Your prediction did not materialized. You are fired from Meto-bomb.
Posted by: murgen23 | Sep 20 2019 12:15 utc | 130
Damage to two spheroid pressure vessels.
https://the-drive.imgix.net/
They look to belong to the group of three smaller tanks that are some distance away from the larger spheroids.
https://www.google.com.au/maps/@25.9327172,49.6872401,123m/data=!3m1!1e3
Fragmentation warhead damage at Khurais.
https://the-drive.imgix.net
Posted by: Peter AU 1 | Sep 20 2019 12:20 utc | 131
@Posted by: William Gruff | Sep 20 2019 10:58 utc | 129
Assange is the only internet superhero?
Oh, wait!
Then...why is that his internet platform strongly recommends Gene Sharp bible on color revolutions?
https://twitter.com/LOQUEDIGAELFMI/status/1173693348961542144
No wonder he supported the Catalan seccesionist movement as if there was no tomorrow...Then...who is trying ot dismember nation states along the world and trying to dismember the EU? Who helped the rising of Trump to presidency by leaking only material on Clinton and held private email communication with Trump junior? Etc, etc....
That he is on jail is to be demonstrated, for the time being he is dissapeared, as it is Epstein and other agents...That he is having a bad time is to be demonstrated...Facts!
Meanwhile...if it serves you of something, I have changed three wheels on my car in the same line and in the same side in the short space of a year....Do you find it a coincidence?
Me not...One is casuality...two is coincidence...Three, well, wait...One of the times the wheel exploded in highway at 130km/h....Fortunately...I am still here...in the gap...
Posted by: Sasha | Sep 20 2019 12:25 utc | 132
Jack Rabbit @97 (current): The US government does not have its shit together well-enough to have a coherent policy, there is NOBODY who can implement policy and expect it to be carried out. The law is a joke in this country, a predatory scam, just like the political system and the economy, and in the last decade or two the education system. They have been fucking up health care here since the 70s, it's about dead. What's been done to the education system here is a strategic crime against this country of the highest order. You want to know why we can no longer compete? There is the answer. We used to be respected for having some smarts, can-do and know-how. No longer. Trump is the perfect "leader" for us today. All talk, and best to stay that way.
BM @126: Yes, that ties in with what I was getting at, this whole situation was created by Trump & MbS, they picked the wrong victim to bully. That really has to torque Trump's jaws having to admit that Obomber was right about Iran. But you are right correct that when Trump threw the JCPOA in the toilet he also threw most of his leverage in the toilet, some deal-maker. But then he is very ignorant, so what can you expect?
Posted by: Bemildred | Sep 20 2019 12:27 utc | 133
@Posted by: Bemildred | Sep 20 2019 12:27 utc | 133
Accurate and succint diagnosis of the current state of affairs in the US and Trump presidency...
You have Assange and all the rest of "bloggers" to great for having you awarded such presidency, which anyone with two fingers of forehead could sea plainly he was a moron apart from a gangster...
Then you have Netflix too...through which they shape your thinking process and create your reality...no wonder everybody in my surroundings is even paying for this and hooked to its Matusalenic long series...but, well, all these people usually change their cars´ wheels because of old...for use...not accident...
If you behave, they live you alone, continue being an slave to pay debts...but if you actively contribute to spread International Fascism, well, then, you will be rewarded with a seat at one of those management councils of MIC...
Posted by: Sasha | Sep 20 2019 12:49 utc | 134
uncle tungsten@125 correctly notes both Yemen and Iran are targets of war. I still think the bombing warfare against Yemen and the economic warfare against the Iranian people give Yemen and Iran different tactical and strategic interests. Yemen is interested in spreading the war, Iran still has (at the moment) more to lose by being an aggressor who unites everybody else in defending oil. The tanker incident already made it clear that Iran could cause great inconvenience. I don't think it's clear
Note on settlement: The US et al. can't afford reparations and will not pay them. JCPOA is functioning exactly as intended, the US unilateral withdrawal option was built in for a reason. The Yemen settlement has a far more important aspect, which is settling whether Aden and the south will resume independence. This will complicate all attempts at resolving the war and even if Saudi stops, the war is likely to continue.
Posted by: steven t johnson | Sep 20 2019 12:55 utc | 135
Wm Gruff @129
1) I use PROTAGONIST @97 in the sense of the one who has the initiative and pushes for a result/goal.
A "protagonist" can be an anti-hero/villain as well as a hero.
2) The "protagonist" comment that you take issue with was an addendum to my comment @94 where I explain why I think the attack on Saudi oil facility is likely to be a false-flag:
The Empire is the protagonist (IMO)".
As you must know, I've been talking about that possibility for several days now.
How am I pro-Empire when I am so suspicious of what they do?
Your comment is even more shockingly wrong given that you're well aware of my anti-establishment/anti-corruption/anti-Empire viewpoint. You objected strenuously to my conjecture that Trump is illegitimate by virtual of having been selected to win the Presidency by the Deep State - for which I've supplied a convincing circumstantial case.
And what about my comment @103 where I talk about the "... axis of stupid (Trump-Netanyahu-MbS)"? How is that pro-Empire?
=
The empire desperately needs your buy-in for its support of the imperial proxy forces in Oil Land ...
The same point that I make @116(!):
Hyping a new "missile gap" so a dumbed-down, too complacent populace continues to allow establishment adventurism.
Posted by: Jackrabbit | Sep 20 2019 13:07 utc | 136
Sasha @132
Come on.
"Who helped the rising of Trump to presidency by leaking only material on Clinton and held private email communication with Trump junior? Etc, "
He is a human and like all of us has his biases. He clearly stated if he had any Trump stuff he would have released it. As far as the Clinton woman , she had already made it quite clear that she wanted Julian dead. Also I doubt that more than two americans changed their mind after the release of those emails which as far as I can tell were mostly not read by anybody.
I didn't quite understand his Catalan thing but he was basically in solitary for quite some time when he started railing on about that. I'm pretty sure that kind of pressure and confinement has its effects on a human.
He is/was a very courageous man. Intelligent and dead honest.
The powers of freedom, democracy and free speech are making a huge example out of him that they own the channels of communication. Whoa be to anyone who does not have their permission.
Posted by: arby | Sep 20 2019 13:09 utc | 137
steven t johnson @135:
Iran, Yemen: You are right (IMHO) that Iran does not want to be seen as using the world's oil supply for blackmail, except under dire threat to its own welfare, which we are conveniently supplying. They will not start the fight, but they will provoke relentlessly. You have to understand there are two distinct games of "confront the bully" going on, Russia & China are using Iran to confront Uncle Sugar, because Iran is well place to do that (with Russian & Chinese support), they are the little guy who has been abused in the dispute and they (Iran) have more than enough "leverage". At the same time, Iran is using the Houthis to confront Saudi Barbaria, because they are the right people to do that, old enemies and well up to the job with a little help from their friends. This also helps Iran avoid being seen as the bad guy while annoying the hell out of the Saudis.
You are quite right that we (USA) will not pay a nickel unless somebody occupies us first, and the war in Yemen will indeed go on after the Sauds and UAE are kicked out. UAE especially needs to be kicked out of Socotra.
Posted by: Bemildred | Sep 20 2019 13:20 utc | 138
Bemildred @133:
The US government does not have its shit together well-enough to have a coherent policy ...
I disagree. The policy has been a war on the middle-class.
Your belief in the pretense of responsible government and the trappings of democracy blind you to this fact. We have clearly and deliberately moved to a neo-liberal regime that some have called neo-feudalist. And while doing so we have doubled-down on military adventures so that the ruling class can capture enormous profits from global control (aka "New World Order"). Our "leaders" have mortgaged our future to that vision via tens of trillions of dollars of debt.
Posted by: Jackrabbit | Sep 20 2019 13:22 utc | 139
The political stuff in Hillary's emails pale in comparison to the damage, death and destruction she engineered as SecState, which she was never held accountable for in the campaign. Thankfully what did come out was her untrustworthiness, which transformed her from a sure thing to a loser.
Posted by: Don Bacon | Sep 20 2019 13:33 utc | 140
@ Bemildred 138
Russia & China are using Iran to confront Uncle Sugar
I will venture to say that nobody uses Iran. In fact for forty years Iran has served as a model, providing lessons to others including China and Russia on how to defy a US takeover even when faced with extreme military and financial pressure
Posted by: Don Bacon | Sep 20 2019 13:38 utc | 141
@ 139
The US policy has been a war for the major corporations, and against whomever stands in the way. The policy includes actual military war against various countries which are unable to defend themselves, and financial war against people in general at home and abroad. The wars are not against a special class of people.
Posted by: Don Bacon | Sep 20 2019 13:42 utc | 142
from Larry C Johnson at SST:
If the missiles were fired from Iranian territory then our intel collection certainly captured the launch or tracked the origin of the drones or missiles used in the attack. So where is it? I have heard from reliable sources that the info is being kept behind a highly classified wall and only those with access to this particular compartmented info can see it. . .here
Posted by: Don Bacon | Sep 20 2019 13:47 utc | 143
Don Bacon @140:
Thankfully what did come out was her untrustworthiness, which transformed her from a sure thing to a loser.
She was very trusted by the establishment. What came out was her sliminess in pretending that everyone else could trust her. Remember, she had already been found to have colluded with DNC and received a $750,000 speakers fee from Goldman Sachs.
And the emails were not responsible for her losing the election. She actually came within a few thousand votes of winning. HILLARY herself lost the election by alienating key voter groups: progressives (by snubbing Sanders); blacks (by taking their vote for granted); and white moderates (labeling them "deplorables") AND choosing not to campaign in the 3 states SHE KNEW would decide the election. IMO this was deliberate because no seasoned politician would do these things.
The Deep State wanted a MAGA nationalist to meet the challenge from the Russia-China Alliance (as Kissinger had called for in his 2014 WSJ Op-Ed) and that's what they got.
Posted by: Jackrabbit | Sep 20 2019 14:18 utc | 144
Jack Rabbit @139: Attacking your own middle class is not a policy that has its shit together. It is a policy that leads to backward societies, banana republics, feudalism, as you point out. It has long been the desired outcome of our wealthy "elites", but was not always the case that our politicians accepted the role of vassals of the rich.
Don Bacon @141: Well, Iran is not a Russian or Chinese vassal, but an ally. I don't see any evidence Russia or China even wants to vassalize them, rather the opposite, they are relying on them as an important ALLY whose job is to nail down their part of the "front" so to speak. It is a mark of great respect that Russia has made that explicit. It means the Russians think the Iranians have their shit together, can be relied on, are "agreement capable".
Nevertheless, Russia & China are supporting Iran right now in confronting the bully militarily, while avoiding it themselves, because Iran is best placed to do that. For Iran, the imperative is not to waste the tactical advantages it has now, to exploit them to the max now that the US has been awakened to the situation and will try to bolster its defenses. Keep attacking trump, keep him on the back foot. We haven't had to think about defense much for a long time, aside from protecting our occupying forces against "terrorists".
Posted by: Bemildred | Sep 20 2019 14:20 utc | 145
Don Bacon @142
We are saying much the same thing so I'm not sure what your point is.
Posted by: Jackrabbit | Sep 20 2019 14:21 utc | 146
A couple of interesting reads on the subjects we've been discussing:
How Yemen’s War Stands to Redefine the Region’s Future
Iran vs Saudi Arabia: it’s game-over
Posted by: Bemildred | Sep 20 2019 15:15 utc | 147
@ Sasha, Grieved, Don Bacon et al
I appreciated the link to the Engdahl article, it was quite a good summary of the dire situation the fracking industry finds itself in. The only item I wished had been at least mentioned was that it was not entirely the "decision of the Saudis and OPEC" to flood the market in 2014. If you will recall, this "decision" took place immediately after a visit from a senior US official (the pillar of integrity Biden I believe). Its primary goal was to be #2 of the one-two punch accompanying sanctions, and directed at bringing Russia to her knees following the embarrassing Crimea mis-play by NATO. This was back when Obama and the Neocons apparently believed their own propaganda about Russia being a gas station mascarading as a country.
But in hopes of killing two birds with one stone, I'm sure the US establishment, which certainly works for Big Oil, were also hoping that the drop in prices would force most or all of the fracking industry (who were originally mostly new kids on the block, small and independent) into bankruptcy so that the old guard oil majors could snatch them up for a song. The Saudis may have been told they would in effect be rewarded for their obedience and sacrifices by the killing off of the US upstart frackers, but in truth it was just a play to maintain the status quo in the West. It sounds like the independents are indeed about to go broke, but it also appears that the "prize" is turning out to be an empty shell. I'm sure the Europeans strongly suspected this for some time, which is why they were so reluctant to kill Nordstream II.
Posted by: J Swift | Sep 20 2019 15:25 utc | 148
As French commentator Thierry Meyssan correctly points out in his recent column:
"For the past three years, President Trump has been trying to impose his point of view on an administration whose senior civil servants have been riveted for 18 years on the Rumsfeld/Cebrowski doctrine of destroying state structures in entire regions of the non-globalized world. On the contrary, for Donald Trump, it is appropriate, from a Jacksonian perspective, to substitute negotiation and business for war"
This is what I call the 'Trade First, War Maybe Never Later' doctrine. For an outsider like Trump, imposing one's contrarian trade-centric approach on a deeply entrenched 70-year-old surveillance-war economy (whose only hammer is an increasingly contestable hammer) is no small feat.
The recent and spectacular failure of the Military Industrial Complex' signature suite of air defense systems in KSA could be a gift to the world from Gd. The Pentagon is falling down on its end of the petrodollar bargain: to provide a security umbrella for the Gulf OPEC nations. More bluntly, the US military has done an abysmal job of safeguarding its own source of funds. Meanwhile the world watches and takes notes on the epic failure of a modern-day, obscenely expensive Maginot Line. Trump will use these failures to leverage advantage over the MIC in favor of his trade restructuring approach. With a little luck, we'll 'lose' the war before it can get started.
Not surprisingly, Lockheed-Martin paid shill Lindsey Graham (noted more than once here on MoA) was the first out of the chute to bomb-bomb-Iran, in effect courting WW3 to protect the virtue of LM's increasingly price-indefensible defense systems. Like Walmart taking note of a promising young upstart, the MIC wants to protect its market share sooner rather than later, before it gets outclassed and outdistanced altogether by asymmetric innovations (and superior Russian, Iranian and Houthi (!) systems).
meanwhile Trump continues to walk the myriad fine lines between bluster, financial sanctions and war. As Meyssan points out, backroom negotiations are continuing on all fronts.
I'm continually assailed for waving the tattered Trump banner. So be it. Nay-saying is a pointless self-indulgence absent a superior option. I am convinced that no one in the American political class -red or blue- could have forestalled large-scale military confrontation to this point as Trump has. Being exogenous to the standard post-WW2 military industrial vetting process (the same one that steadfastly keeps Gabbard off the debate stage) has served Trump -and the world- well to date. Yes, to date. In this perilous age, success must be measured in inches, days and months.
Even the most deranged opposition has little choice but to admit WW3 has not yet broken out in earnest. Good for Trump. He bobs, he weaves, he learns fast. Bobbing and weaving will offer up good and bad days. Removing Bolton eliminates a skilled bureaucrat with the ability to have precipitated WW3 before Trump might have reacted to prevent it. His last day has to be counted as an unambiguously good day for the world.
Of course geopolitical risk remains sky-high. The banking class clearly hankers for a major re-ordering. That's not a good faction to be on the wrong side of. The sheer ambiguity of culpability in the KSA incident may point implicitly upwards i.e. to transnational origins. Down here on earth, everyone's responsible and no one's responsible. Odd.
How curious too the current spate of exploding oil infrastructure all over the planet suggesting perhaps a variation on the '73 Oil Embargo theme. Just as today's US fracking industry is reaching the extremities of capital destruction (posed of course in investor brochures as 'investment') and fresh Ponzi dollars are getting harder to come by, the '73 oil majors were deeply in debt when the banks did themselves and the former a favor by jumping the price of oil from $3 to $10 while pinning it all on the Yom Kippur war and the hapless King Faisal.
The productive economy might be getting gouged yet again to cover the FIRE economy's sins. The baseline risk profile for oil has moved irretrievably higher. That's beyond dispute. US Energy dominance lives to fight another day. As Trump's economic populism spreads like a contagion, the bankers take a moment to re-tip the scales back in their favor. Call it a self-engineered pay raise. Call it too a Central Bank/Dudley-inspired political tactic to hasten an American recession which still stubbornly refuses to show up in the numbers. (See recent housing starts and surging household income.)
Strange times.
Posted by: FSD | Sep 20 2019 15:31 utc | 149
"The productive economy might be getting gouged yet again to cover the FIRE economy's sins."
Beg Pardon, but there is no 'might' about it: Overpay for some has nowhere to come from but from underpay for the rest. The amount in the pool of wealth is a finite number. Those who argue otherwise are confusing potential with actual. I can give further explanation if wanted.
If humans could grasp grok internalize this one economic fact alone, and add to it that justice is a virtue essential to happiness they would finally SEE why there is no choice but to cease to allow all the legal thieving that is driving all the "advancements" in weaponry, all the strife, all the wars crime violence corruption frauds crises deprivation destruction misinformation disinformation unhappiness unsafety unsurvivability for humans.
Posted by: Phryne's frock | Sep 20 2019 16:07 utc | 150
Since Saudi oilfields are in Shia regions what is to say that the kamikaze drones were not launched from within Saudi Arabia by "cooperative elements" ?
I mean Shias in Saudi have so many reasons to want to bring down House of Saud and drones inside Saudi Arabia would not show up on US or Saudi radar
Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Sep 20 2019 16:12 utc | 151
From Bomb Bomb Bomb Iran to blame, blame…Iran, sanctions on Iran, etc. (Leaving aside older history, the Shah > etc.)
The US is now making a laughing stock of itself. Not flash news, but has now become crystal clear.
Throwing ppl out of a club (e.g. SWIFT), refusing to honor previous signed int’l treaties (e.g. JCPOA), making empty threats, putting impossible conditions on any discussion, imputing false blame, name-calling, insinuating dire plots are being cooked up by the opposing lot, spreading false rumors, touting unconvincing false pictures, garbled nonsense statements, etc. ..
Is like the stuff of personal animosity and vendettas (the crazed guy in flat 49 who hates the lady in flat 37.. the angry home-owner whose wife slept with the neighbor..etc.), with the exception of economic sanctions, as individuals cannot implement them. So far the US has been able to impose sanctions partially for many years via semi-acceptance from Euro Trash, but not China for ex.
Russia and Iran are ready to switch (sic) to an alternative to SWITCH.
https://www.rt.com/business/469007-russia-iran-swift-alternative/
see also
https://www.rt.com/business/461958-foreign-banks-russia-swift/
other: Putin, Erdogan, Rouhani, laughing about US weapons systems. Heh not the most cruel by far as it is France 24:
https://www.france24.com/en/20190917-russia-saudi-arabia-putin-weapons-troll-trump-turkey
Bashing Iran and China is counter-productive for the US as the only result is they will ally ‘against.’ Ex:
https://www.thetrumpet.com/18674-iran-ready-to-join-chinas-belt-and-road-initiative
I need not go on ..
Posted by: Noirette | Sep 20 2019 16:24 utc | 152
- Did Trump give Pompeo a spanking (verbally) ? Is Pompeo also afraid of being "laid off" ? Like one John Bolton ?
Posted by: Willy2 | Sep 20 2019 16:27 utc | 153
Posted by: Don Bacon | Sep 19 2019 23:28 utc | 82 "So the operators nod off or leave, as on 9/11."
Don, that is not correct. see the first several minutes of Part 2 of the Italian-made documentary "Zero: An Investigation into 9/11
Also see Part 1 it is quite informative.
Posted by: Perimetr | Sep 20 2019 16:27 utc | 154
murgen23 @130--
At least I had the courage to offer a rational prediction. Nice to get a reply from a non-native English speaker!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Tom Luongo's article uses Tulsi Gabbard's "patriotic" tweet assailing Trump's appearing to subordinate the Outlaw US Empire's military to the whims of a foreign nation as his intro to an assessment of where things now stand. Here's Gabbard's tweet for those not having seen it:
"Trump awaits instructions from his Saudi masters. Having our country act as Saudi Arabia's bitch is not 'America First.'"
Trump didn't honor Gabbard with a reply, but his subsequent actions show he got her message.
Luongo makes a very important observation that's gone unanswered ever since 1979:
"In all of this discussion about a potential war with Iran no one in the Trump administration or anywhere else have made a credible argument as to what actual threat Iran poses to the people of the United States."
The same could be said about the Cold War and the supposed threats posed by Cuba and Vietnam as a small set of examples. Luongo then raises the following points and presents the overall argument from an angle I've not seen made before in this manner:
"This is a cultural and religious conflict we barely understand and cannot change the dynamics of by blundering in with weapons of mass destruction. It is precisely because we take sides in this conflict that this conflict never ends.
"And it is a conflict that dovetails with prevailing ‘wisdom’ in the West about how to maintain control over the planet that dates back more than 150 years. And that is why we do what we do. But it is time for that worldview to end.
"It’s time bury Mackinder’s ideas alongside his corpse. [My Emphasis]
Luongo offers much more in his essay that I'll refrain from citing; but IMO, this is the best one I've read from him. His conclusion provides a good segue to today's Strategic Culture editorial, "Turkey Summit Shows Russia’s Growing Mideast Influence."
Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 20 2019 16:30 utc | 155
An important note from the above liked editorial that provides information not generally known about the Summit's outcome:
"There are good grounds to welcome the expansion of the Astana format to help resolve other conflicts in the region. Lebanon and Iraq are to join the process as observer nations of the Astana process. Russia’s trusted role as an interlocutor could see the process being applied to bring an end to the war in Yemen. It may also be applied to help structure a peace process in Afghanistan, or to de-escalate tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Russia could perhaps constructively fill the void in resolving the perennial Israeli-Palestinian conflict."
The final point made is perhaps the most important in geopolitical terms and takes a mighty swing at the Outlaw US Empire's BigLie Media Narrative:
"One final amusing note is this: we should note how Russia’s evident conciliatory relations are contrasted with the caricature presented in Western media which portrays Moscow and Vladimir Putin as a malign actor. To any objective observer, Russia’s role is commendably bringing about peaceful results through its diligent diplomacy and consistent adherence to principles of sovereignty and respect for international law. Western media’s caricature of Russia should actually be applied to the United States, in which case it would not be a caricature, but rather an accurate condemnation."
Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 20 2019 16:48 utc | 156
Trump didn't honor Gabbard with a reply ...
There were many similar complaints about Trump's tweet. I don't think he answered any of them.
Luongo: "... no one in the Trump administration or anywhere else have made a credible argument as to what actual threat Iran poses to the people of the United States."
It's a pertinent observation, but I can't help thinking that Luongo sidesteps many important issues. While there is no DIRECT threat to USA, there are threats to USA interests and allies. Warmongers have a field day with simplistic analysis like this.
The question really is this: just how important are the threats to USA allies and interests? Do they rise to a level that USA has to respond it in a way that might cause it to be embroiled in a war? Shouldn't USA be doing more diplomatically instead of responding in a knee-jerk fashion with statements like "locked and loaded"?
We seem to be fueling the fire instead of working to put it out. And it's not just due to Mackinder. "The Benjamin's" (ht Ilhan Omar) from Israel and Saudi Arabia are also a big factor. Mackinder + financial incentives = USA belligerence.
Posted by: Jackrabbit | Sep 20 2019 17:16 utc | 157
OT FYI--
Despite current tensions, past animosities and even armed conflict, an important grouping of nations are engaged in military drill together:
"The Tsentr-2019 (Center-2019) drill, which kicked off on Monday, amasses around 128,000 troops, with more than 20,000 pieces of hardware, conducting maneuvers in southern Russia and Central Asia.
"Russian servicemen are joined by fellow soldiers from China, India, and Pakistan, along with personnel from four Central Asian countries, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan."
Only Iran is missing from this regional line-up, although it was probably invited. That they constitute CSTO and SCO nations mingled together show how those blocs will likely merge together in the near future, and will also add additional regional members. The great likelihood that these nations will enter the EAEU and participate in BRI ought to be assumed as a done deal, IMO. Add ASEAN to the mix, and Asia will become a formidable united bloc, with the exception of the currently extremely destabilized Afghanistan that yearns for stability.
As the article's attached video explains, this drill is an anti-terrorist operation but doesn't ask the questions who is backing the terrorists or from which territory they've sprung forth.
Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 20 2019 17:21 utc | 158
Saudi-led coalition attacks Yemen’s Hudaydah in violation of truce deal
Looks like SA is doubling down.
If that tendency confirms, then we have a very dangerous path:
1) the Houthi will intensify their attacks to SA oil infrastructure, disrupting even more SA's economy and globalisation;
2) game theory would impel SA to intensify its brutality over Yemen, which
3) will impel the Houthi to intensify its attacks to SA and so on.
This is a problem for the USA, because it doesn't give a damn to Yemen and the Houthi's retaliation against SA's oil supply chain is damaging to its image of invincibility. This will raise the alarms for the other American allies in the Rimland, e.g. South Korea, Japan, Eastern European countries etc. etc. The NYT has already warned Trump about this:
Attack on Saudi Oil Facilities Tests U.S. Guarantee to Defend Gulf
The best solution for both the USA and SA is still strike a peace deal on favorable terms to Yemen. The Houthi are not socialists, so they are not really enemies of the West; they are for sale. With the Yemeni threat gone, the myth of American invincibility can recover with its due time and PR, and it and SA will be able to return their focus to the Easter Front of the Arabic Peninsula, to the Hormuz Strait, against Iran. All of that with SA's oil capabilites more or less intact.
Southfront offers this recap of recent news and informs us that three more Patriot batteries will be provided to Saudi but when isn't mentioned. In the map depicting potential deployment, the Partiots are shown to have 360 degree coverage when we know the most possible is only one third of that--120 degrees. One source says each missile in the battery costs $4.3 million whereas I calculated the Houthi drones to cost between $13-15,000 each. Also mentioned is the possible deployment of F-22s. Presumably, all these additions would be manned by Outlaw US Empire personnel, further entrenching the Empire as a belligerent in the war against Yemen and legitimizing them as targets.
Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 20 2019 17:45 utc | 160
What the USA policy in the Middle East in the last 20 years has achieved is a huge increase of the influence of Iran in the region. Starting from the Irak invasion, where the shia majority took the (deserved) power, to the war on Syria where the shia militias from Irak, Libano and Iran have sustain Assad and gain influence and a secure route of supply for Hezbollah and a strong foothold for shia forces near Israel that was unthinkable before 2011, or the much better situation in Afghanistan where Al Qaida and the Taliban were enemies of Iran, but now they have a much bigger enemy, to the war on Lebanon in 2006 that present Hezbollah as the only force in the Middle East that can defeat IDF militarily abd sustain the struggle of the palestinian people in a time where the arab countries have very close ties with Israel.
The last empowerment of the Shia Crescent, have been the Yemen war because "what do not kill you make you stronger" and KSA is weaker now an Houthis are becoming stronger, in the battlefield but also in the mind and hearts of the people around the world (even in USA) that know perfectly well the kind of massacres the saudi regime is making in Yemen and how detestable MBS and the rest of the saudi authorities are, compare to the bravery and courage of the houthi warriors
This extreme failure of the ME policie is cornering the neocons and the MIC to more and more animosity to Iran, but now the game is really too dangerous and an attack on Iran, with many thousands of american lives lost, could means the collapse of the USA, not only as an empire, but as unite country
Peter AU 1 @128--
Thanks for the link to the short damage vid! Here are still images of Abqaiq. Do note they don't depict any damage to the holding tanks.
Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 20 2019 18:04 utc | 162
Lavrov's essay published "World at a Crossroads and a System of International Relations for the Future." I've yet to read this as I just came across news of its publication, so I have no excerpts or analysis to offer. The link presents the English version at about 5-6 pages in length. I've awaited this sort of a production by him. Now to read it!
Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 20 2019 18:14 utc | 163
#152 Noirette's link to france24
"Weaponized" ? The author must be an MoA reader!
Posted by: Mina | Sep 20 2019 18:34 utc | 164
The 9 May edition of the London Review of Books has an extremely interesting review of what looks like an extremely interesting book. The book is
AngloArabia: Why Gulf Wealth Matters to Britain by David Wearing
The review is by Tom Stevenson.
https://www.lrb.co.uk/v41/n09/tom-stevenson/what-are-we-there-for
If Wearing and Stevenson are right, it provides background on the power politics of the Gulf that many here surely would find indispensable to understanding of the game there. THe basic info concerns actual functioning of the UK's and the USA's owning of the Gulf. It may be that the recent drone attacks have upended the importance of the Gulf Monopoly board as discussed by Stevenson and Wearing. However, I suspect not.
Unfortunately the article is behind a paywall, but it may be available somewhere else.
Here are a few grafs (not the beginning grafs):
"An agreement signed by British representatives and the Omani sultan in 1798 made Oman the British Empire’s first satrapy in the Middle East (it was also Britain’s last colonial possession in the Gulf). The East India Company had in 1763 established a trading post in Bushehr, now in Iran, from which the empire’s growing Gulf business was managed. In 1819, to subdue the coastal Arab sheikhdoms and establish a protectorate over the Trucial States – now the United Arab Emirates – the British navy bombarded and laid siege to Ras al-Khaimah. By 1917, Britain had established dependencies in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Iraq and parts of Iran. Thousands died during Ibn Saud’s conquest of the central Arabian peninsula in the first decades of the 20th century; he received a monthly stipend from the British government throughout. When the new Saudi regime was threatened by a rebellion in 1929, British troops helped put down the mutineers. Britain bankrolled the Saudi monarchy (after 1943 with the help of the US) until the oil industry ended the need for subsidies.
The Suez crisis is generally treated as the decisive moment in the transition from British to US dominance in the region, but David Wearing shows that, in spite of Suez and other setbacks for Britain on the periphery (the 1958 coup in Iraq, the civil war in Yemen in the 1960s), British influence in fact increased in the core Gulf states over the next 15 years, with successful palace coups backed by the British government in Saudi Arabia in 1964 and Sharjah, one of the Trucial States, in 1965. Qatar, the Trucial States and Oman remained British protectorates, their currencies pegged to sterling. Wearing makes a strong case that it was the cost of the military ‘protection’ of the Gulf that forced the end of Britain’s formal empire there in 1971, and the beginning of US hegemony.
Before withdrawing from its dependencies, the British government placed retired military officers as advisers to Gulf monarchs it had for the most part installed in order to protect ‘oil and other interests’ and a ‘very profitable market in military equipment’, in the words of the then foreign secretary, Michael Stewart. Even now, a striking number of Middle East rulers are graduates of Sandhurst, including the kings of Bahrain and Jordan, the sultan of Oman, the emir of Dubai, the emir and crown prince of Abu Dhabi, the emir of Qatar, and the late emir of Kuwait. Most Saudi leaders are educated in the US but the former heads of the Saudi National Guard and the General Intelligence Service, as well as members of the Allegiance Council and a former defence minister, also attended Sandhurst. A skeleton British military presence remained behind in the Gulf. In 2016, Theresa May pledged to increase Britain’s military commitments there, ‘with more British warships, aircraft and personnel deployed on operations than in any other part of the world’. In April last year, the Royal Navy reopened HMS Jufair in Bahrain – the base had been taken over by the US after Bahrain became independent in 1971. Another naval base is set to open in Oman later this year.
Britain’s residual influence in Saudi Arabia meant that during the oil crises of the 1970s the kingdom secretly broke its own embargo to supply Britain. Saudi Arabia also continued to pump much of the massive surplus generated by oil sales into British financial institutions. It finances around a fifth of the UK current account deficit. A ten-person team in Whitehall, known as Project Falcon, manages the UAE’s investments in Britain. During the financial crisis in 2008, Gordon Brown appealed to the Gulf to provide private bailouts for British banks. In a deal subject to a current Serious Fraud Office investigation, Barclays received £4.6 billion from Qatar and £3.5 billion from the UAE, helping it to avoid nationalisation. Qatar’s investments in the UK are many and conspicuous: Harrods, the Shard, the London Stock Exchange, Heathrow Airport. Saudi Arabia and the UAE’s portfolios of UK bonds and equities are exceeded only by their US investments."
Posted by: Really?? | Sep 20 2019 18:51 utc | 165
DFC @161: Yep, that's about it, and all pretty much as predicted before Bush the Lesser invaded Iraq: Iran dominating the ME, Shiia Crescent well along now, Israeli position in the region much worse, total failure of occupation anywhere we tried it, etc. Some of the details are better for Iran than predicted, but nobody predicted we would be as incompetent as we were, as we have become. Nobody predicted we would stop being a serious nation. Nobody predicted Trump would be President here. But it all starts with that stolen election in 2000.
The "We make our own reality" people got to run things here, still are. So much easier than dealing with real reality, while it lasts.
Posted by: Bemildred | Sep 20 2019 18:55 utc | 166
Given recent developments, I guess we can say that the Carter Doctrine is dead. Or just dying?
"Let our position be absolutely clear: An attempt by any outside force to gain control of the Persian Gulf region will be regarded as an assault on the vital interests of the United States of America, and such an assault will be repelled by any means necessary, including military force."
Posted by: Don Bacon | Sep 20 2019 1:18 utc | 104
Don, if we assume that Iran is an "outside force" in the "Persian Gulf region (PeGuR)", than you may be correct. However,sIran was called Persia, and even today Wikipedia claims the two words to be synonymous. Perhaps you believe that we have witnessed an attempt by Yemen to gain control over PeGuRe, but I never seen any evidence for that. On the other hand, the doctrine is somewhat self-contradictory: would it happen to pass that USA would attempt to gain control of PeGuR , USA will repel itself by any means necessary, e.g. sending Marines to control White House and Congress building, or a decapitating strike (electing a headless person as its President) etc.
Posted by: Piotr Berman | Sep 20 2019 19:45 utc | 167
Bemildred @166--
Sorry, but the direction taken by the Outlaw US Empire long predates the 2000 election and goes back to post-WW2 planning that began prior to US entry with the Atlantic Charter and FSR's conception of Internationalism.
Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 20 2019 19:46 utc | 168
Don Bacon @104 & Piotr Berman @167--
The so-called Carter Doctrine as with all Outlaw US Empire doctrines are mere statements of unilateral intentions that violate international law--as Lavorv stated in his essay linked above, "might goes before right" is no longer accepted before international law or by the vast majority of the world's nations. Indeed, the UN Charter outlaws it, while the Outlaw US Empire aims to perpetuate it.
If I could, I'd compel all barflies to read Lavrov's essay as it describes the primary source of today's global problems and provides a solution. I say primary because the actual root cause of current Outlaw US Empire behavior stems from the development of Neoliberalism after the US Civil War as documented by Michael Hudson and others. Purging the United States and the world of that Cancer IMO is the #1 intellectual challenge as that Ism is the embodiment of the Hydra-heads of all other global maladies.
Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 20 2019 20:03 utc | 169
BREAKING NEWS DEVELOPMENT
"President_Almasaht: We declare to stop targeting the territory of Saudi Arabia by drones, ballistic missiles and cruise missiles, and await a similar response."
Sputnik article says:
"Head of the Houthi political council Mahdi al-Mashat has announced that the movement is ceasing its attacks against Saudi Arabia with the use of drones and other weapons. In turn, the Houthis expect Riyadh to issue a similar statement, promising to stop carrying out attacks on Yemeni territory."
I could find no formal statement aside from the tweet on the Houthi media I follow. Note they don't include UAE in this but have recently upped their threats aimed at UAE.
Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 20 2019 20:33 utc | 170
170 Cont'd--
Meanwhile, Al Masdar News says:
"The Houthi Movement (var. Ansarallah Movement) announced on Friday that they are halting their missiles strikes on Saudi Arabia after the Gulf kingdom offered them a peace deal.
"According to the Houthi Movement, the Saudi Coalition offered to halt their airstrikes over Yemen in exchange for the halting of all Houthi missile strikes."
Clearly there's a contradiction in news reports and announcements.
The succession of tweets by Ansarullah is thus curious.
Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 20 2019 20:45 utc | 171
Saudi cheapskates
. . . .from DefenseNews:
Riyadh still has an unpaid bill with the Pentagon for $181 million over assistance in Yemen. Despite the Trump administration’s emphasis on the U.S.-Saudi alliance in the wake of an attack that both sides attribute to Iran, Saudi Arabia has not repaid the Pentagon for its midair refueling assistance for its bombing runs over Yemen, nine months after the Pentagon announced it would seek to recoup its costs. . .here
Posted by: Don Bacon | Sep 20 2019 22:00 utc | 172
171 Cont'd--
I've found no confirmation that Saudi said they'd talk peace with Ansarullah. Rather, the opposite is further confirmed:
"Mahdi al-Mashat the president of Yemen’s Supreme Political Council said, "We rely on our confidence and strength to announce that we have stopped missile and drone strikes on Saudi soil and we are waiting for such a reciprocal move from Saudi Arabia and stopping the bombardment."
Thus the initiative is wholly suggested by Ansarullah. Anyone see Western reports of this development?
Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 20 2019 22:02 utc | 173
What should halt immediately the war in Yemen, and everywhere is this scandal, of which anybody talks...a secret already known at the shouts...but now supported by strong evidence....
On "externalities"...A video about "Serbia Files"...of utmost interest for US voters...and soon participants in the UNGA...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qsjj065XcCA
To see if this serves to shut up some morons regulars at SST who dare to state that falsely accused Iran provoke "externalities" which affect the US and world security and so the US should retaliate ...agaisnt Iran now....
Who is in the origin of all the "externalities" which so much affect us all?..and, when someone is going to do something?
Posted by: Sasha | Sep 20 2019 22:07 utc | 174
karlof1
Reports at SST (comment by TTG) that Saudi's offered to stop bombing yemen in return for no more attacks. I haven't followed it up yet but they could be right.
Thanks for the extra pics. I have been looking for pics of the eleven damaged pressure tanks and have not found any yet.
In most cases, appears to be blast damage and I have been trying get a number on them. Several cases of fragmentation damage, which I was not expecting. Some looks to be from a fragmentation warhead.
Posted by: Peter AU 1 | Sep 20 2019 22:28 utc | 175
@ karlof1 169
The so-called Carter Doctrine . . . is no longer accepted before international law
What constitutes international law in regards to area hegemony?
Posted by: Don Bacon | Sep 20 2019 22:32 utc | 176
I don't see a conflict in what you report, karlof1. The initiative could well have been taken tentatively at some level by Saudis, much as the public conversation between Kerry and Lavrov on chemical weapons in Syria brought about a quick reaction from Assad to the effect of destroying a well-publicized 'reason' for the 'Assad Must Go' thrust. Things happen just that quickly sometimes.
I don't mean to say that the two are synonomous, but for the Houthis to make a quick public announcement of this nature is to me a hopeful sign. They have everything to gain by it, and that is not for them to suddenly be in charge of the Middle East. All they want is to save their country and its people.
Posted by: juliania | Sep 20 2019 22:52 utc | 177
The US allegation that there were 17 (or 19) points of impact whereas the Yemenis/Houthis say that they launched 10 drones means that the Houthis could not have carried out the attack makes no sense. If each drone launched one missile at a designated target and the drone then crashed into another target that would provide 20 points of impact.
Posted by: Othello | Sep 20 2019 22:52 utc | 178
Othello @178--
Ansarullah announced their drones carry 4 bombs each as cited earlier in this or previous thread.
Don Bacon @176--
UN Charter forms basis for all current international law and bans interference in sovereign affairs which Outlaw US Empire has violated since Charter's inception and ratification--and it helped author the Charter! Do read Lavrov's essay as it's quite excellent.
juliania @177--
Haven't said hello and thanked you for your replies and other commentary of late! Yes, it's quite possible something as you describe transpired, but there's the contradiction between what Sputnik reported and the actual announcement which is why I sought clarification but have yet to find any. Iran may have advised backing-off to see if Trump/Pompeo/MbS are serious about moving to a peace posture. The damage inflicted does seem to have caused problems for the Saudi domestic production and export systems that are now cropping up in media. So, we wait and contemplate Lavrov's suggestions as to how the world can move beyond our current primitiveness.
Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 20 2019 23:11 utc | 179
Apologies if this has been mentioned but cnn just said that Trump is sending more US troops to KSA and to UAE.
Posted by: spudski | Sep 20 2019 23:12 utc | 180
By the pics that have come out to date, I count around seven separate hits by explosive, plus one or more hits by fragmentation warheads.
Posted by: Peter AU 1 | Sep 20 2019 23:20 utc | 181
Posted by: Don Bacon | Sep 20 2019 22:32 utc | 176
The Carter Doctrine was meant as a warning to the Soviet Union that had just intervened in Afghanistan.
Iran was meant to remain a friend. Though Khomeini kept his distance from the US, Iran and proxies took part in the Islamist fight against the Soviet Union.
Carter would not have been able to fulfill his threat, then as now prolonged fighting in the Gulf with pipelines being hit would result in sky high oil price and a world economy in free fall.
Fortunately, Trump is very relaxed about - potentially - being called weak. He certainly would mind being called a loser.
Posted by: somebody | Sep 20 2019 23:31 utc | 182
@Posted by: spudski | Sep 20 2019 23:12 utc | 180
Yes, and the reasons alleged to send in more troops to the ME
The deployment has three objectives, according to Esper: to help strengthen Saudi and Emirati defenses, "guarantee the free flow of trade" in the Persian Gulf and "protect and defend the rules-based international order" that Iran is supposedly challenging.
To "help strengthen Saudi and Emirati defenses" they just should send the Saudis and Emiratis what they both pay for.
For "guarantee the free flow of trade in the Persian Gulf" and "protect and defend the rules-based international order". they should not be sending troops to the ME, it will be enough to send them closer, to the WH, Pentagon, Langley...and WS...
Posted by: Sasha | Sep 20 2019 23:34 utc | 183
This piece by Andrei Martyanov on Russia's response to US bragging about attacking Kaliningrad is relevant here. http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2019/09/why-would-you-ask.html
More and more the world are starting to veiw the US as a madman wandering up and down the street shouting threats and other incoherent rubbish. Now much of the world is starting to just step around him and continue with their business.
Posted by: Peter AU 1 | Sep 20 2019 23:44 utc | 184
interesting related article on almasdar news - US spy plane operated drones that attacked Hmeymim Base in Syria: Russia
Posted by: james | Sep 20 2019 23:45 utc | 185
james
I remember Russia saying they were US controlled, I think after the first drone attack on their base. The details are interesting in how the US took manual control backed the drones off, then tried to take them in through holes they had detected in the EW defence.
Posted by: Peter AU 1 | Sep 20 2019 23:57 utc | 186
Peter AU 1 @184 & James @185--
Thanks to you both for those links! The no longer Top Dog is having an ego breakdown and is taking very risky risks. Wonder if Trump knows about that and likely other drone attacks led by his military and their outcome. Seems the Outlaw US Empire is destined to soon become a 4th rate military power whose only "strength" is nukes, which is what IMO unnerves Lavrov and Putin.
Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 21 2019 0:41 utc | 187
Yes, bless Lavrov's noble and patient heart! He cites two of his own heroes, but he's a hero of mine. And while there is much to be said for FDR's New Deal on the local scene, we don't praise his wife Eleanor often enough - she was a shining light for this country even though she was elite born and bred. I thought of her today when I saw the elite being 'shown up' for their final and hopefully not too late involvement in climate change initiatives.
Maybe we can start a collaborative counter movement: It's About Time!
Posted by: juliania | Sep 21 2019 0:56 utc | 188
Re the drone attack on the Russian. The US tried to take the drones in through gaps in the EW defence. Why would Russia leave gaps.. The only thing I can think of is that these gaps were set up as the killing fields. Russia took control of a number of drones which may not have been possible if they had been in the EW zones. Also, this directs the US drones into narrow lanes so they can be easily shot down if they cannot take control.
Posted by: Peter AU 1 | Sep 21 2019 1:08 utc | 189
@Posted by: juliania | Sep 21 2019 0:56 utc | 188
Do not hold your breath...on this "Climate Change Movement"... since this is a hoax to financialize nature in the wake of late-capitalism zero growth prospects. Get to know who are behind this "movement", those of always, those of Davos ( Soros, Rockefellers, the Royals, Al Gore...have they worried about us ever?...) to see that what they seak is their relegitimation as elites in a context of crisis of governability so as to get you to accept voluntarily a miserable future of hunger and misery in the neofeudal fascist new world order they try to implant now...To this they use as instruments the new monster teens like Greta Thunberg...and others...Did you know that there is already an online confessionary for you to confess your climate crimes?
Do not you think this is going beyond any rationality? I bet you this will be like the Hippie Movement to dismember the anti-war pro-peace movement...Thye just need to get the young busy enough to not notice how their lives resemble increasingly traditonal slavery and indigence...to that make them first indigents in appearance by fashion and you have gained a level...since hordes of them never more will be able to dress decently with the wages the same who promote this "movement" are thinking on paying them...Notice that this is the estelar claim of the UNGA...no better wages, better housing, better health services, better jobs...if you do not find this smelling of rat all the way...well, I guess you are hopless...and then, go for the "optimism" they sell...
Posted by: Sasha | Sep 21 2019 1:43 utc | 191
A thought on the SCO after reading Lavrov's piece. More than anything, the SCO looks like a UN style organisation for countries that do not submit to US diktat. A place where they can resolve differences that exist between, a place for dialog between nations that are hostile to each other.
SCO spells the end of divide and conquer.
Posted by: Peter AU 1 | Sep 21 2019 1:58 utc | 192
I would add to 192 that SCO is also a place where involved countries can discuss common threats and the best way to counter them.
Posted by: Peter AU 1 | Sep 21 2019 2:00 utc | 193
from DefenseOne
Pentagon, Pompeo Diverge on Saudi-Oil Attacks
The Pentagon’s chief spokesman declined to definitively blame Iran for the weekend attack on two Saudi Arabian oil facilities — just hours after Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told reporters that it was “abundantly clear” Tehran was responsible for the attacks. . .here
Posted by: Don Bacon | Sep 21 2019 2:42 utc | 194
USA's Red-Blue UniParty Congress, including neoliberal champions Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and Alexandria Ocacio-Cortez, have voted last month for a +16% budget increase for Pentagon for 2020, and if you think Congress didn't know what that +16% was for, then have I got a 'Great New Deal' for you!!
Can you IMAGINE your own kids in uniform, in the Great Sandbox, dying for Israel and Saudi Royals, the very same 'bad actors' who brought the WTC down, and that directly led to the 2008 global trainwreck?! So the 2020 election will now hinge on who is the biggest WarHog and National Police State Champion.
Incredibly, Rocky just launched his Final Solution on the same day the Children of the Corn invaded Area 51, lol. America has the best global media script writers and programming release schedulers on Earth.
Posted by: Jack Martin | Sep 21 2019 2:51 utc | 195
Run on to a Guardian article on the Trump Morrison pressers. A bit about coalition of the willing and nukes and so forth.
Found two Trump Morrison pressers on video. In both, when asked about Iran, apart from the sanctions, he talks about how great the US military is and how he has built up the nuclear forces.
https://youtu.be/Wo7x0Qe7VFc?t=7731
https://youtu.be/CbnY8kaa1lU?t=2469
Posted by: Peter AU 1 | Sep 21 2019 3:38 utc | 196
Peter AU 1 @192&3--
Please see my 158 above and this from previous thread regarding what the Outlaw US Empire faces when sanctioning Iran's state bank--Is it really ready to take on the entire world and do what it must to try and keep the dollar as the main international transaction vehicle? By now we all ought to realize that the entire reason for waging the Hybrid Third World War is to maintain the Outlaw US Empire and its Current Oligarchy's control over and skimming of all international trade flows. That brings in more money than all its other rackets combined and represents its most important and enduring "squeeze." Deprive the Current Oligarchy of its #1 cash cow and the rest will be much easier to roll up. Essentially, the process turns Hudson's Super Imperialism on its head. And their gross fiscal mismanagement adds an ironic edge as the Neoliberals help destroy themselves.
Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 21 2019 4:07 utc | 197
Posted by: Sasha | Sep 21 2019 1:43 utc | 191
Both can be true - capitalism using ecology for growth and different modes of production needed for ecology.
Possibly it is capitalism's last stand - as they are unable to switch on their own they need the governments of countries and people's cooperation.
Posted by: somebody | Sep 21 2019 6:52 utc | 198
@ Sasha | Sep 20 2019 12:25 utc | 132
Put aside any 'conspiracy theories' until you find out what the problem with your coache isn't. Check first to see if all the parts of your steering are not worn, this is the most common source of faulty wear of tyres. If the steering is ok, then have the alignment checked as tyres out of alignment wear quickly. Be safe! If both of these have been checked by professional mechanics, then it would be time to bring out those pesky theories for an airing. Apologies for the OT.
Posted by: Formerly T-Bear | Sep 21 2019 11:36 utc | 199
@Posted by: Formerly T-Bear | Sep 21 2019 11:36 utc | 199
Last time, when the tyre exploded at 130km/h, I have just changed the two frontal tyres 20 days before, because of the second sabotage...Second sabotage ( three deep slices which at the close inspection with enough light were leaving even copper in plain air...) came when a year have not even passed of car taken out of the dealership...
Thanks, anyway, dude!
Posted by: Sasha | Sep 21 2019 11:55 utc | 200
The comments to this entry are closed.
Peter AU 1 @88; Don Bacon @99
The real question is: what does "better relations with Russia" mean to Trump?
I would say:
1) Trump is not the guy that is deciding that question;
2) "Better relations" likely means Russia's ending its alliance with China. And allowing the Empire to prevail against Syria and Iran as well.
Given these, Trump desire for "better relations" is just a kind way to say "Russian capitulation".
Posted by: Jackrabbit | Sep 20 2019 0:59 utc | 101