The Crisis Over The Attack On Saudi Oil Infrastructure Is Over - We Now Wait For the Next One
The crisis about the Yemeni drone and cruise missile attack on two Saudi oil installations is for now over.
The Saudis and the U.S. accuse Iran of being behind the "act of war" as Secretary of State Pompeo called it. The Saudis have bombed Yemen with U.S. made bombs since 2015. One wonders how Pompeo is calling that.
The Yemeni forces aligned with the Houthi Ansarallah do not deny that their drones and cruise missiles are copies of Iranian designs. But they insist that they are built in Yemen and fired from there.
President Trump will not launch a military attack against Iran. Neither will the Saudis or anyone else. Iran has deterred them by explaining that any attack on Iran will be responded to by waging all out war against the U.S. and its 'allies' around the Persian Gulf.
Trump sent Pompeo to Saudi Arabia to hold hands with the Saudi gangster family who call themselves royals. Pompeo of course tried to sell them more weapons. On his flight back he had an uncharacteristically dovish Q & A with reporters. Pompeo said:
I was here in an act of diplomacy. While the foreign minister of Iran is threatening all-out war and to fight to the last American, we’re here to build out a coalition aimed at achieving peace and a peaceful resolution to this. That’s my mission set, what President Trump certainly wants me to work to achieve, and I hope that the Islamic Republic of Iran sees it the same way. There’s no evidence of that from his statement, but I hope that that’s the case.
The crisis is over and we are back to waiting for the next round. A few days or weeks from now we will see another round of attacks on oil assets on the western side of the Persian Gulf. Iran, with the help of its friends, can play this game again and again and it will do so until the U.S. gives up and lifts the sanctions against that country.
The Houthi will continue to attack the Saudis until they end their war on Yemen and pay reparations.
As long as no U.S. forces get killed the U.S. will not hit back because Trump wants to be reelected. An all out war around the Persian Gulf would drive energy prices into the stratosphere and slump the global economy. His voters would not like that.
In our earlier pieces on the Abqaiq attack we said that the attacked crude oil stabilization plant in Abquaq had no air defense. Some diligent researchers have since found that there was a previously unknown Patriot air-defense unit in the area which was itself protected by several short range air-defense cannons:
Michael Duitsman @DuitsyWasHere - 7:02 UTC · Sep 18, 2019
On paper, the point air defenses at the Abqaiq oil processing facility are rather formidable... by 1995 standards, at least.
A battery of Shahine SAMs (French system from the early 1980's)
3 or 4 anti-aircraft gun sections, each with 2 twin 35mm cannons and a fire control unit
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But one Patriot system covers only 120° of the horizon. The attacking drones came from a western directions while Saudi Arabia's enemies are to its east and south. The older Patriot 2 version the Saudis have is also not of much use against low flying drones and cruise missiles.
There is also the oddity that the Patriot unit's radar system was shut off.
Putin is a Virus @PutinIsAVirus - 4:53 UTC · Sep 19, 2019No patriot radars have been active in recent months (at least not consistently) in the vicinity of the plant, not in the short range required to detect low flying cruise missiles or drones. Closest installation is in Barhain.
(using Sentinel 1 CSAR sat for detection)
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Satellites with synthetic-aperture radar can 'see' the radar of Patriot and other air-defense system. None was detected around Abqaiq.
The explanation for that is likely rather trivial. Colonel Pat Lang was stationed in Saudi Arabia as a military liaison officer. As he recently remarked:
Never underestimate the feckless laziness of the Saudis. In my experience they turn off all ATC and air defense systems that require manning or watch keeping when they find them inconvenient as on the weekend. IMO if Ansarallah did this they will do something similar soon to prove they are responsible.
Abqaiq was attacked on the night of Friday to Saturday. That is the weekend in Saudi Arabia.
Posted by b on September 19, 2019 at 18:12 UTC | Permalink
« previous page@Posted by: somebody | Sep 21 2019 6:52 utc | 198
Have you read the report linked? ( It is only one of a long series...)
I mean to test by yourself that there is no good intention behind these actors...no wonder never there was...
Posted by: Sasha | Sep 21 2019 12:07 utc | 202
@Posted by: somebody | Sep 21 2019 6:52 utc | 198
Can you explain me why they have focussed in easily to brainwash tender teens to organize a UN Summit to "find solutions to climate challenge", people who still have to know what it is life, especially what it is to wake up at 6.30am to then drive half an hour to get to work place and this when your wage keeps frozen since 2008 US exported crisis, and when this is even a privileged position amongst average workers since most have or lost their jobs and/or their homes, or have seen their wages diminished to three digits of euro, and can not talk ever more of leissure time or what it is to go on holidays?
These are the coming working beggars they need to convince they are environmental heros for contributing with their poverty to the elites wellbeing for them to continue travelling in helicopters, private jets and yatchs in peace, without Yellow Vests protests...
Posted by: Sasha | Sep 21 2019 12:27 utc | 203
@ Sasha | Sep 21 2019 11:55 utc | 200
My error, not realising seriousness of sabotage done and relying instead on a lifetime of driving experience. A little paranoia is highly justified in your experience. Parking the coache in an enclosed garage may be the only way to forestall reoccurrence in the future, a pricy option anywhere but with such 'friends' maybe value for money. Again regret speaking without better knowledge.
Posted by: Formerly T-Bear | Sep 21 2019 13:07 utc | 204
So Saudis have resumed bombing (in violation of cease fire) and US is moving to place more people in harm's way.
The non aligned are turning this mysterious event into assessment of US hardware capabilty.
Problem is when arranging the f/f, USreal forgot to leave passports at site.
Those look like shell fire damage.
On any site which gains following, there will be assigned people to steer the narrative. You will recognize them as the smartest people in the room. Still one can learn from them.
https://www.rt.com/news/469286-saudis-dont-believe-iran-attacks/
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trumps-real-war-deep-state-not-iran
Posted by: jared | Sep 21 2019 14:07 utc | 205
@ my 194
The Pentagon has now drunk the koolaid.
Stripes:
Pentagon to send more troops to Middle East amid ‘significant escalation’ from Iran
WASHINGTON — The Pentagon will deploy new forces into the Middle East to bolster the United States’ ability to defend its personnel and its allies in the region, Defense Secretary Mark Esper said Friday evening, citing a recent “significant escalation of violence” by Iran.
Esper said intelligence clearly indicated Iran was responsible for a drone and cruise missile attack Sept. 14 on two key Saudi Arabian oil facilities, which made significant impacts on the global market. He described the new troops as “defensive in nature” and he said they would primarily provide additional air and missile defense capabilities. . .here
Can't argue with "intelligence!"
Posted by: Don Bacon | Sep 21 2019 14:52 utc | 206
Sasha, you are correct that I was being over optimistic about the elites who run to the front of every parade if they see a way to make money from it. The Occupy movement was right to be extremely paranoid about their participation - which did lead to that horrible government coordinated overthrow during the Obama administration.
My message was simply that it is a good thing when climate change is being considered by all, but I would not join and have not joined such elite orchestrations as the one you mentioned, but rather do my own very small part to escape the ongoing destruction. I don't need to list those things, but I do all of them and promote them in my community. I hope that such as you will continue to reveal the criminal activities of those who are only in the movements for profit and subversion, while at the same time I continue to hope some good will come out of their ability to publicly urge recognition of the disaster which is upon us. Some among them will come to realize their ship is foundering due to theirs or their parents' activities. And some will take the honorable course if they are given opportunity.
This is the same technique employed by Russia and China when it comes to diplomacy in action. For example, Turkey. Persuasion is often a good tool to bring former adversaries into the fold. That is how I see it.
Posted by: juliania | Sep 21 2019 17:58 utc | 207
Posted by: Sasha | Sep 21 2019 12:27 utc | 203
Half an hour is quite good. Anything under an hour drive to your workplace is normal, at least where I live. If you do not get stuck on the motorway.And you do get stuck on the motorway.
With modern technology there is no need to build work places in the cities and have everybody rush every workday to the city and back. Actually, it was not necessary with old technology.
I had a chat with a 75 year old women. In her youth her 200 people farming village had everything you needed in such a place: A shop, a post office, a doctor, a pharmacy, a priest, a primary school. Now here is nothing.
Of course you had to drive to get stuff, like eg the shop keeper. But he transported it for everybody, not everybody ordered it to be delivered by competing private delivery services individually. Postal services used to be a state control monopoly.
Same with packaging. People used to bring and reuse the containers to buy stuff.
There are lots of things you can do to protect the environment but all these things cost effort and money, they are not profitable (except maybe to the consumer but certainly costs will be handed down to him/her).
So either the state forces companies or nothing real will get done.
The kids are alright.
By the way the 75 year old woman I had the chat with, had eight kids and built a house with her husband. After her husband died she started to travel a bit. She still did not get further from her village than 200km.
It is a matter of lifestyle. And equality.
If you try to force ecological behaviour by taxes and cost, the rich won't be touched. You can also do it like in Beijing where car registration are won in a lottery with a chance of one percent to be able to register the car.
Posted by: somebody | Sep 21 2019 18:30 utc | 208
add to 208
It has been done before. It is actually quite simple.
This here is the history of the great London Smog of 1952
Initially, the British government was slow to act during the Great Smog. Heavy fog was, after all, a common occurrence in London and there was, according to most reports, no immediate sense of urgency to this smog event.Following a government investigation, however, Parliament passed the Clean Air Act of 1956, which restricted the burning of coal in urban areas and authorized local councils to set up smoke-free zones. Homeowners received grants to convert from coal to alternative heating systems.
The transition away from coal as the city’s primary heating source toward gas, oil and electricity took years, and during that time deadly fogs periodically occurred, such as one that killed about 750 people in 1962. None of them, however, approached the scale of the 1952 Great Smog.
Posted by: somebody | Sep 21 2019 18:34 utc | 209
re Peter AU 1 | Sep 21 2019 3:38 utc | 196 ...et al
Owning v Controlling...crudely stated, a Rockefeller has all the wealth needed for multiple lifetimes. A Rockefeller wants and needs to maintain their status relative to others. For that, more money is of little or no help. Total control can maintain status.
Seeking total control is what's behind the curtain.
Posted by: chu teh | Sep 21 2019 20:06 utc | 210
@Posted by: somebody | Sep 21 2019 18:30 utc | 208
Nothing of the sort...ecocapitalist fake left you live in LALALAND...I have still of almost everything I need to eat at hand by just walking 10 minutes from home...fresh stuff durectly from the farmer...as here quality of life is not so bad after all due the distances which are short...Anyway, the fact that I must drive half and hour to work place is not due to me living in one of those exclusive neighborhoods you use to live in in the US...nothing of the sort.... I had to go back 25 km my place of birth, where all my family and friends live because of the real state bubble created by especulative financial capital, then I had to share the debt of banks they delibered amongst us all without even ask for permisssion after the 2008 crash...while nobody of those peers who crashed around me were rescued by anybody..
As I imagined, you are already absoluted abduced by the idea that for continue living decently we must go back to the Midle Ages...as they wish you to believe...that is leaving the cities in mass and come back to the villages...well, that is simply not possible for most, except for some well off retired people...In fact, I am planning to retire to a village...but that will be some decades from now...
Look the world is going to shit..but for other reason they have made you to believe... and you do not even notice..."the kids are right"??? Oh, please, stop the world that I get out! Why I must read this in MoA???....
https://twitter.com/ciudadfutura/status/1175122088451104768
So "the movement represented by Greta Thunberg is by definition anti-capitalist". Okay
https://twitter.com/sacedator/status/1175447156070780934
Your fake left "ecocapitalism" of the hell is about this....and I fear you know it...I know of course that some people like Greta have made of this a way of living...Did you know that their fathers have already left the local stages to be her managers?...That is what it takes to become a puppet of late capitalism...that you do not have to worry for working any more...even as mediocre actor...
Merkel's 'green revolution' will plunder 40,000 million from the pockets of taxpayers and consumers
Posted by: Sasha | Sep 21 2019 20:43 utc | 211
@Posted by: Sasha | Sep 21 2019 20:43 utc | 211
Third link went wrong, the article I wanted to link was one inspired in this average MSM kind linked promoting the "Green New Deal" we can find ubiquitous these days...,but it was from a site I am noticing "b" does not want published here, since some other links to that site have been banned before....
That article was explainning how the citizens will be oblied to pay exhorbitant prices for electricity ( about 50% increase...) to compensate industry for both, the closing of nuclear facilities and the ruinous business of sea placed wind energy platforms...To hell with this kind of "ecocapitalism"..it is always about the same....say.. that we share their loses....
Posted by: Sasha | Sep 21 2019 21:18 utc | 212
"As long as no U.S. forces get killed the U.S. will not hit back because Trump wants to be reelected."
Which is precisely why new US forces are being sent to Saudi Arabia to operate the new US air defenses (that are already proven not to work."
As for the election - what does Trump do the day after the elections - which is only 14 months away?
I submit he starts a war with Iran - using some way to avoid blame on himself, of course. Or if he doesn't start it, someone else does - take your pick, CIA, Israel, Saudi Arabia - in a manner that forces him to commit US troops against Iran.
The US is also likely to start a naval blockade of Iranian oil shipments pursuant to Trump's specific goal to cease all Iranian oil shipments - and the US is considering targeting all other Iranian exports as well - which will indeed require a US naval blockade. The Iranians will of course retaliate by shutting down the Straits of Hormuz and the war is on.
Anyone who thinks the US - and that includes Trump - doesn't intend a war with Iran is a fool. The timing may depend on the election - but the intent does not.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Sep 22 2019 0:11 utc | 213
chu teh
control was required to maintain the petro-dollar. The requirement being that oil was traded in US dollars. That can no longer be enforced. Energy dominance, which is part of US strategy under Trump, is I believe ownership rather than control.
Posted by: Peter AU 1 | Sep 22 2019 0:38 utc | 214
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@Posted by: somebody | Sep 21 2019 6:52 utc | 198
Indeed is capitalism last stand, just they need you to stop consuming fuel, by using your car or travelling, so as the US Military Machine keeps running to the fourth cardinal points, its last travel just announced yesterday...
While Greta and all the people behind her do not quantify and denounce the USAF carbon footprint, so as to demonstrate this is what most polute in the world and moreover what most insecurity, misery and underdevelopment causes in the world, I will be unwilling to help them...
That without saying that I will not move a finger to save capitalism....at least not this kind....
Posted by: Sasha | Sep 21 2019 12:05 utc | 201