Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
September 19, 2019

The Crisis Over The Attack On Saudi Oil Infrastructure Is Over - We Now Wait For the Next One

The crisis about the Yemeni drone and cruise missile attack on two Saudi oil installations is for now over.

The Saudis and the U.S. accuse Iran of being behind the "act of war" as Secretary of State Pompeo called it. The Saudis have bombed Yemen with U.S. made bombs since 2015. One wonders how Pompeo is calling that.

The Yemeni forces aligned with the Houthi Ansarallah do not deny that their drones and cruise missiles are copies of Iranian designs. But they insist that they are built in Yemen and fired from there.

President Trump will not launch a military attack against Iran. Neither will the Saudis or anyone else. Iran has deterred them by explaining that any attack on Iran will be responded to by waging all out war against the U.S. and its 'allies' around the Persian Gulf.

Trump sent Pompeo to Saudi Arabia to hold hands with the Saudi gangster family who call themselves royals. Pompeo of course tried to sell them more weapons. On his flight back he had an uncharacteristically dovish Q & A with reporters. Pompeo said:

I was here in an act of diplomacy. While the foreign minister of Iran is threatening all-out war and to fight to the last American, we’re here to build out a coalition aimed at achieving peace and a peaceful resolution to this. That’s my mission set, what President Trump certainly wants me to work to achieve, and I hope that the Islamic Republic of Iran sees it the same way. There’s no evidence of that from his statement, but I hope that that’s the case.

The crisis is over and we are back to waiting for the next round. A few days or weeks from now we will see another round of attacks on oil assets on the western side of the Persian Gulf. Iran, with the help of its friends, can play this game again and again and it will do so until the U.S. gives up and lifts the sanctions against that country.

The Houthi will continue to attack the Saudis until they end their war on Yemen and pay reparations.

As long as no U.S. forces get killed the U.S. will not hit back because Trump wants to be reelected. An all out war around the Persian Gulf would drive energy prices into the stratosphere and slump the global economy. His voters would not like that.

In our earlier pieces on the Abqaiq attack we said that the attacked crude oil stabilization plant in Abquaq had no air defense. Some diligent researchers have since found that there was a previously unknown Patriot air-defense unit in the area which was itself protected by several short range air-defense cannons:

Michael Duitsman @DuitsyWasHere - 7:02 UTC · Sep 18, 2019
On paper, the point air defenses at the Abqaiq oil processing facility are rather formidable... by 1995 standards, at least.
A battery of Shahine SAMs (French system from the early 1980's)
3 or 4 anti-aircraft gun sections, each with 2 twin 35mm cannons and a fire control unit

bigger

But one Patriot system covers only 120° of the horizon. The attacking drones came from a western directions while Saudi Arabia's enemies are to its east and south. The older Patriot 2 version the Saudis have is also not of much use against low flying drones and cruise missiles.

There is also the oddity that the Patriot unit's radar system was shut off.

Putin is a Virus @PutinIsAVirus - 4:53 UTC · Sep 19, 2019

No patriot radars have been active in recent months (at least not consistently) in the vicinity of the plant, not in the short range required to detect low flying cruise missiles or drones. Closest installation is in Barhain.
(using Sentinel 1 CSAR sat for detection)


bigger

Satellites with synthetic-aperture radar can 'see' the radar of Patriot and other air-defense system. None was detected around Abqaiq.

The explanation for that is likely rather trivial. Colonel Pat Lang was stationed in Saudi Arabia as a military liaison officer. As he recently remarked:

Never underestimate the feckless laziness of the Saudis. In my experience they turn off all ATC and air defense systems that require manning or watch keeping when they find them inconvenient as on the weekend. IMO if Ansarallah did this they will do something similar soon to prove they are responsible.

Abqaiq was attacked on the night of Friday to Saturday. That is the weekend in Saudi Arabia.

Posted by b on September 19, 2019 at 18:12 UTC | Permalink

Comments
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I'm curious as to the veracity of the Saudi statements that they've restored production capacity, all is fine, etc. I suspect those statements are bluster but have no proof.

Posted by: worldblee | Sep 19 2019 18:17 utc | 1

Pyrric victory for sanity

We averted a war today but another plank has been laid in the 'Iran is Nazi Germany' narrative for the genocidal bombing campaign tomorrow. I have believed this for a while but I got a chill watching Neil Cavuto interview Tulsi Gabbard and seeing him seethe with anger as his eyes narrowed and he said, 'so YOU .. are .. saying .. that .. Saudi Arabia .. is worse than .. IRAN?'

The years of propaganda have taken their toll. They are mindless Orcs.

Posted by: Christian J Chuba | Sep 19 2019 18:26 utc | 2

Posted by: worldblee | Sep 19 2019 18:17 utc | 1

Judging by the photographs of the 'damage', I'd hazard an intelligent guess that the claims of 50% loss of production is rubbish and now we hear that 'normal' production will resume, pretty much immediately!

False flag? Bullshit? Fake news? Take your pick.

Posted by: Barovsky | Sep 19 2019 18:31 utc | 3

worldblee @1--

As I reported late on previous topical thread, WSJ reports Saudi asked--not offered to buy--Iraq for 20million barrels of its crude for purposes of refining for domestic use. That sounds to me like Saudi has a problem. Plus, numerous customers were asked to bear with a delay in their loadings. Also as I reported earlier, both Brent and WTI are up today after falling back after the attack-caused spike in price. IMO, it's still too soon to tell just how much damage was done as that will remain a closely guarded secret. But if major damage to some key components did occur that warrants their replacement and thus ordering from an outside supplier, that information will become known and quickly reported in oil trade journals.

Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 19 2019 18:33 utc | 4

And what of the Patriot anti-missile system? More gringo rubbish obviously. Billions of dollars to US capitalism for crap weapons!

US-made Saudi air defenses ineffective against drones — Russian military source https://tass.com/world/1078916

Saudi air defenses like Patriot & Aegis don’t match their advertised properties, unfit for real combat – Russian Army - https://on.rt.com/a20m

News sales pitch? US makes the world’s ‘finest’ anti-air systems, but sometimes they just don’t work, Pompeo explains - https://on.rt.com/a20a

Say no more...

Posted by: Barovsky | Sep 19 2019 18:37 utc | 5

Pompeo talks out of both sides of his fetid mouth as I quoted from Reuters in the latter part of the last thread and shown below
"
CAIRO (Reuters) - U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said the United States supports Saudi Arabia’s “right to defend itself” and said Iran’s behavior would “not be tolerated” in a meeting with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, according to a statement on his official Twitter account on Thursday.
"
From what I have read I would not be surprised to see the glass buildings of UAE as a “right to defend itself” against the coalition of aggressors target this weekend instead of Saudi oil fields but maybe we will be lucky and see both.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Sep 19 2019 18:39 utc | 6

thanks b... 'we now wait for the next one'... this suggests all roads lead to the inevitable position of war on iran... it couldn't possibility imply saudi arabia stops it's war on yemen.. i can't see the usa allowing for that... maybe there are some other possible conclusions here and i am missing them.. based on pat langs letter to the president from 2 days ago, pat thinks trump needs to make his own decisions.. what is the possibility of this? last i recall, he was happy to bomb syria for the theatrics mostly...

Posted by: james | Sep 19 2019 18:44 utc | 7

Eklavya Gupte:

"The world's largest crude exporter, Saudi Arabia has approached Iraq's State Oil Marketing Organization to buy Iraqi crude as it looks to fill a supply shortfall in the wake of the recent oil attacks, sources told @PlattsOil"

Posted by: Sergei | Sep 19 2019 18:44 utc | 8

Don’t forget the attack on Saudi oil infrastructure was more than anything a message: A message
To US, that things are going to change from now on, you should reconsider your approach.
To US you are absolutely venerable and you have underestimated the things that could unfold.
To US you pick the wrong time and wrong country to mess with.
To Saudi and Emirate, you better stop this or there will be nothing left of you.
To Israel, there is so much that can be done to you that you have no idea. Be nice.
To Europe, you better come up with some kind of financial relief, or you will be paying a hefty price on the oil and gas.
To the World, don’t let US do this, and don’t just watch. This would soon cost you dearly.

Posted by: John | Sep 19 2019 18:51 utc | 9

Mike Pompeo, MIC tool, wouldn't know diplomacy if it sat on his face and wiggled.

Posted by: Roy G | Sep 19 2019 18:52 utc | 10

All roads do not lead to war on Iran because a war on Iran is not doable. The chest beating and posturing comes from weakness. The U.S. can not attack Iran in any way without a devastating response. There is simply too much infrastructure in the region the global economy depends on...and America cant protect any of it. So...war over...have a nice day.

Posted by: Nemo | Sep 19 2019 18:59 utc | 11

sorry for the above damaged link...

Google translation:

What blew up in Saudi Arabia
https://tinyurl.com/yxwnp2or

Posted by: Sergei | Sep 19 2019 19:00 utc | 12

According to the Houthi, the damage to Abqaiq was significant and much greater than what was publicized by the Saudis.

The only reason the price of the brent didn't spike any further than the 20% the day after was because the Saudis had a nice little reserve of 188 billion barrels to cover for the interruption for one or two weeks (so they don't lose their market share) and, mainly, because the Western world is in virtual complete stagnation, so consumption remains very low if compared to the pre-crisis (2008) levels.

Ironically, the only thing keeping globalization afloat since 2009 has been China. Even with its slowdown in August, it still will represent circa 30% of the world's GDP growth. That's because India proved to be the fraudulent paper tiger I've been saying here for quite a good time, and rigistered an even greater slowdown (to 5% -- which, adjusting for the Indian known fraud techniques, must be more akin to 2%-2.5%).

Posted by: vk | Sep 19 2019 19:04 utc | 13

The world's largest crude exporter, Saudi Arabia has approached Iraq's State Oil Marketing Organization to buy Iraqi crude as it looks to fill a supply shortfall in the wake of the recent oil attacks, sources told @PlattsOil

How does importing 20 million barrels of oil from Iraq solve the problem of replacing lost processing capacity?

Oh and by the way Saudi facilities are already back to operating at full capacity.

Please use common sense folks. The attack did not happen. It is a psyop and distraction, as is everything coming from official sources nowadays.

Posted by: Fixer | Sep 19 2019 19:14 utc | 14

@Fixer

There is no need to "solve the problem of replacing lost processing capacity?", as you assert, given you boldly declare without evidence, "Saudi facilities are already back to operating at full capacity." Yet, how could it return to full capacity, given you declare it was never damaged, there was no attack ? Whilst claiming a monopoly on common sense ?

Bravo. You've managed to believe & express 4(?) self contradictory impossible things in such a brief post ... will you manage six (before breakfast ?) in your locale (Wonderland) ?

lol

Posted by: Rexif | Sep 19 2019 19:25 utc | 15

Correction to my #14 post: 188 million, not "billion".

Posted by: vk | Sep 19 2019 19:29 utc | 16

This whole situation reminds me of Herbert's masterpiece, Dune. "He who can destroy a thing controls a thing", except in this case its oil not spice.

Posted by: Basil Davis | Sep 19 2019 19:34 utc | 17

As I posted a few threads back , The Saudis had asked Iran for gasoline, not crude.

Posted by: arby | Sep 19 2019 19:40 utc | 18

Hey look! Trump, Pimpeo and company can talk out both sides of their mouths with Bibi's kosher sausage implanted in their necks. That takes exceptional talent.

Posted by: Shadow | Sep 19 2019 19:43 utc | 19

@Posted by: Sergei | Sep 19 2019 19:00 utc | 13

Well...sounds like when a dude set its business on fire when it is completely ruined to claim the insurance compensation...or when a dude sets his mansion on fire to save his ruined business when he needs cash...all very American, as we see in their films...

Without substracting any hint of bravery and cleverness from the Houthis, to whom reason and right of legitimate defense after 4 years of intends of being erased from the surface of Earth by the Saudi coalition ( with unpayable assistance from US/UK/France...) assist, this issue smells to me of rat all the way...

No idea about the derivatives market of oil, but the fact that people like Pat Lang ( along with almost all the USAF "alt-media" blogs...) who always tells the hell about Arabs, included the Yemenis ( of whom he said it was impossible to achieve anything done with, an asertion I tried to debunk, and as a result he banned me, as always happens when somebody dares to contradict his words, no matter The Oracle he is not...)has no doubt on that the attack came from the Houthies, tells me that there is cat shut-in here...

Pat Lang writes his certainly naive letters to the POTUS only to make you believe that he is with the "resistance", when he is not, he is in the "we must be greedy" troupe...that is with Trump, as they are most of those who were campaigning for The Donald past 2016 and are currently doing the same, overtly and covertly....

Then... it is Asymmetrica.... a contractor especilist in "War of Drones" whose CEO, Vanessa Neumann, is currently the representative of Guaidó in the UK...Her partners in the Asymmetric Warfare Group of Pentagon, like Alex Bierbauer, are veterans of Special operations with drones in places so of actulaity like Afghanistán and...Yemen...

Taking into account all these events, one could easily imagine why Venezuela and Iran are being corraled after the corraling of Syria has failed....

Posted by: Sasha | Sep 19 2019 19:47 utc | 20

The Iranians are constantly sending 'messages' to their opponents in the region. This attack, for instance, occurred one month after the unveiling of the domestically produced Bavar system (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bavar-373). The name assigned to the system is yet another 'message'.

Posted by: ninel | Sep 19 2019 19:48 utc | 21

I forgot to add, because wikipedia's translation of the term Bavar makes it difficult to understand the underlying message that the Iranians are trying to convey through the development of this particular system. The term Bavar translates into English, more accurately as 'believe'.

Posted by: ninel | Sep 19 2019 19:51 utc | 22

here is the article about the request for gasoline.

https://en.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13980626000653

Posted by: arby | Sep 19 2019 19:55 utc | 23

@ 12 nemo... it is kind of like a game of chicken here as i see it... who is going to blink first.. i wouldn't put it past these crazies to do a number of really stupid things..

@ 23 sasha... totally agree with your comments on pl...his privileged existence and house price in virginia has to go up and everyone else on the planet can suffer.. the guy is brain dead on a number of levels..

Posted by: james | Sep 19 2019 20:00 utc | 24

James - 7
Sure, Trump is ok with a quick bombing that's mostly theatrical, with no risk to US interests and servicemen. Russia played along, Syria was probably forewarned. Thing is, Iran has said several times that it wouldn't play that game, and the last declaration from Zarif is obviously intended for Trump's ears: he has to understand that he won't be able to do a small bombing raid on Iran and be done with it, appearing "presidential", without repercussions and retaliation: Iran won't lose face this way and will strike back in a massive way.

Basil Davis - 20
Dune itself (the planet) and spice are thinly veiled metaphors for Arabian peninsula and oil - the fact Herbert, interestingly, relied on a galaxy where Islam was a major influence (at least as much as Christianity, and possibly way more) made it even more blatant. And now it looks like the Houthis are playing the part of the Fremen.
It's a good thing that a single nuke can't start a chain reaction that would destroy all oil on the planet.

Posted by: Clueless Joe | Sep 19 2019 20:02 utc | 25

IMO, Ansarullah will continue to make its attacks until the Saudis and UAE stop their aggression, withdraw their forces, overturn the sanctions on Yemen, and seriously talk peace--which as far as I can discern are Ansarullah's fundamental conditions for negotiations. Such ought to also be known to the Outlaw US Empire and other UNSC members as Ansarulla hasn't made them a secret. Pompeo's weasel words trying to spin Zarif's warning into something it wasn't was as comical as the rest of his performance, much of which was already discussed on the previous thread. If Trump truly desires peace, then he'll need to turn the screws on Saudi and UAE, and we should hear results of such soon if he does so. As I noted earlier, an exiled al-Saud Prince has openly announced an attempt to alter the regime to a Constitutional Monarchy, thus putting further pressure on MbS. We know how stubborn and arrogant he is, so he may need some further convincing that with Yemen he's lost.

IMO, there's another point at which the illegal sanction happy Outlaw US Empire might up the tensions, and that is with Iran's entrance into the EAEU (Russia, Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan) and establishment of a Free Trade Zone doing business outside of SWIFT in national currencies with other regional nations soon to join the club--China in particular. Obviously, such a move directly challenges the Empire's policies of strangling Iran and containing both Russia and China. Based on past behavior, I'd expect the Neoliberalcons to doubledown yet again and attempt to sanction all the participants in some manner since they're going to do business with Iran despite the obviousness of that being a losing proposition. Perhaps it will finally dawn on some of the Neoliberals that their ploy is doomed to failure--what will they do when the BRI really ramps up in 2023, sanction the planet? And how will the new coalition government in Occupied Palestine view these developments. Will they finally see the light as the Afrikaners finally did before them?

My earlier prediction was the next attack will occur before the first morning prayers Friday, which isn't too far from now local time. Both Saudi and UAE were warned they're in the crosshairs. Not much to do but sit and wait.

Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 19 2019 20:16 utc | 26

@ Posted by: Basil Davis | Sep 19 2019 19:34 utc | 20

Don't want to rain on your parade, but Bibi lost the election.

Posted by: vk | Sep 19 2019 20:18 utc | 27

@Rexif

First comment above: Saudi claims they've restored full processing capability.

Seems like a mighty fast turnaround, don't ya think?

Hold tight to your fake news and sources, friend. Believe what suits your purposes and NEVER question what you are told by authority.

When you've had your fill of Zio-pablum we'll be over here, still waiting for evidence for anything being claimed regarding medievil tribespeople launching precision guided strikes on oil facilities swimming in radar survellance by the purveyors and professional trolls who populate this space.

Posted by: Fixer | Sep 19 2019 20:19 utc | 28

"During the two past days, we managed to contain the damage by recovering more than half of the production that we had lost during that terrorist attack," Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said at a briefing in Jeddah, 09/17/2019

https://www.straitstimes.com/world/middle-east/saudi-arabia-partially-restores-production-at-damaged-oil-plant

20 millions of barrels asked to Iraq by KSA equals less than 4 days of production of Abqaiq plant

Few small drones, few damages, Brent oil going to 60$; c´mon move on, the trap failed, probably Pompeo will last only a few months

Posted by: DFC | Sep 19 2019 20:19 utc | 29

pl: . . . air defense systems that require manning or watch keeping when they find them inconvenient as on the weekend
Speaking of attacking Saudi on weekends, this is a notable weekend....stepfeed (excerpts)

Saudi Arabia is gearing up to celebrate its 89th National Day . . .From a special show by Cirque du Soleil to over 40 artists performing, the kingdom is ready for exceptional celebrations. . .The kingdom's General Entertainment Authority (GEA) is overseeing and organizing all events related to what has been dubbed "The National Day Season." Inspired by the words of the country's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, this year's celebrations will be held under the slogan: "Saudis' mettle is like that of the Tuwaiq mountain." . . .Speaking at a press conference held in Riyadh on Sunday, GEA's CEO Amr Banaja said several events and activities are planned in 13 regions across the country between Sept. 19 and 23. GEA also created 150 smartphone apps to help people track National Day events. . .here

There will also be celebrations in Dubai, which the Houthis have said they would like to hit.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Sep 19 2019 20:20 utc | 30

@Posted by: Sasha | Sep 19 2019 19:47 utc | 23

To illustrate what kind of people we are talking about here ( "we cheated, we lied, we stole", "we must be greedy" ) the "bestseller" by Alec Bierbauer, currently partner of Vanessa Neumann in Asymmetrica ( at her time she currently member of UN Security Council Counter-Terrorism Executive Directorate (CTED)...is this not like putting the wolf to take care of the hens?... )

Posted by: Sasha | Sep 19 2019 20:22 utc | 31

@28 clueless joe... i agree.. the set up is very different here as i see it too, which is why i say @27 i wouldn't put it past these crazies to do something really stupid..

Posted by: james | Sep 19 2019 20:23 utc | 32

"No patriot radars have been active in recent months " <-- not really patriotic

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Sep 19 2019 20:31 utc | 33

Pompeo: ". . . we’re here to build out a coalition aimed at achieving peace and a peaceful resolution to this."

When the coalition was announced in July . . . “The goal is to increase maritime domain awareness and surveillance capabilities in the region to dissuade malign action,” she said, offering the most detailed assessment to date of the progress of the plans and discussions with allies. . .here by Reuters

Now according to Pompeo the coalition mission is achieving peace.

The coalition peace-achivers now includes US, UAE, UK, Bahrain and Australia, a mighty force for good. /s

Posted by: Don Bacon | Sep 19 2019 20:33 utc | 34

The next Houthi raid of any significance will depend on production and supply. Most of the military went over to the US proxy side when the Houthi killed Selah. How many of the original military that were capable of modifying old missiles and so forth Still remain with the houthi is difficult to tell.
Supply - perhaps a little gets through the US proxy blockade by fishing boat, but if good smuggling operations have been set up with the Saudi UAE mercs, a lot of supply could come through there.

Posted by: Peter AU 1 | Sep 19 2019 20:38 utc | 35

How does importing 20 million barrels of oil from Iraq solve the problem of replacing lost processing capacity?

Oh and by the way Saudi facilities are already back to operating at full capacity.

Please use common sense folks. The attack did not happen. It is a psyop and distraction, as is everything coming from official sources nowadays.

Posted by: Fixer | Sep 19 2019 19:14 utc | 15

It was not crude processing but crude conditioning. Apparently, when crude has too much of volatile fractions, it is unsafe for transport. I do not know if they have any problem with salt to remove, salt can corrode tanks and refining facilities. Apparently, non-conditioned crude is bad for refineries as well, and thus conditioned crude from Iraq can help. 20 mbbl is ca. two days of production of KSA, so not that much. Crude in storage is conditioned, lest storage facilities explode.

Mind you, you can transport gasoline, volatile fraction of the crude, and store, but it requires much more expensive tankers and tanks.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Sep 19 2019 20:46 utc | 36

@b

I wish I could be as optimistic as you are. But the question here is that the blame has been assigned to Iran.
Acknowledged by Pompeo himself, and the MSM keeps repeating it.

Since they blame Iran and not the Houthis, once blame is attributed they have to act on the "malign actor" .

Will the fear of starting something big will stop them from a stupid attack on Iran? Their hubris prevents
reason and wisdom to prevail.

I am convinced they will do something stupid.

Posted by: CarlD | Sep 19 2019 20:55 utc | 37

Israelis caught spying on the white house and here's the response from current front goy in chief:"I don't think the Israelis were spying on us," Trump said. "My relationship with Israel has been great...Anything is possible but I don't believe it." MIGA one day at a time, neo-confederate bitches are about to sign a new defence pact with their israeli handlers. With stable geniuses like these, it's only a matter of time before murikkkans bleed again for the zionist project. https://www.politico.com/story/2019/09/12/israel-white-house-spying-devices-1491351

Posted by: Sol Invictus | Sep 19 2019 20:56 utc | 38

I was thinking about an art project, feasible for high school performances and similar venues.

Form: ballet
Title: Foreign Policy
Parts (plagiarized music) I Entry of The Gladiators II Sorcerer's Apprentice ||| Carmina Burana

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Sep 19 2019 20:58 utc | 39

Elijah J. Magnier @ejmalrai
57m57 minutes ago
Someone I know suggested that the next Houthis #Yemen drone (s) attack will most probably be on the #UAE (Emirates) and it might hurt substantially.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Sep 19 2019 21:00 utc | 40

Much as I'd love to see the Saudi despots slink back to their lair and pay some fat reparations to boot, it won't happen, not any time soon.

Shame and honor are paramount int he Arab world, and MBS and those around him cannot be seen to lose. If he is seen as a loser, certain of his dear relatives will be quick to stick the knife in. MBS cannot be unaware of this.

Posted by: Sid Finster | Sep 19 2019 21:05 utc | 41

Thank you Don Bacon #37, peace achievers indeed! That is the same Australia that 'assisted' Timorese to achieve peace in East Timor, then stole it's oil.

Stole it from the poorest, smallest, newest nation on earth.

Just what you would expect from a bunya nut republic.

No surprise the Aussie government abandoned Julian Assange to the predators of UK and USA.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Sep 19 2019 21:11 utc | 42

Pepe Escobar has a good article about this: Houthi rebels overturned the chessboard

Posted by: Zim | Sep 19 2019 21:12 utc | 43

Don Bacon @33 & 37--

Thanks for that info on National Day. IIRC, both Trump and Pompeo were planning to attend, then the Houthi's struck and neither will attend.

The problem serial liars have is remembering the thread of their previous lies and keeping the whole narrative straight, particularly when more than one liar is involved. More trolling by Russia in its suggestion for an international investigation into the attack. It Trump had actual evidence of Iranian involvement, it would be all over global media faster than you can say lickitysplitquick. Six days have passed and zilch, nada, quien sabe, and the eggs are still on Saudi and Outlaw US Empire faces.

Peter AU 1 @38--

If smuggling is occurring, perhaps it's coming from Horn of Africa across Red Sea since it's so narrow a passage--The Bab-el-Mandeb crossing is only 12 miles. But as with the various attacks, Iran must keep itself pristine. Zarif would do well to point out the new direct evidence of Outlaw US Empire provisioning Daesh with munitions, or perhaps that's being saved for the UNGA.

Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 19 2019 21:16 utc | 44

Us looks to be moving away from thoughts of attacking Iran and towards long term seige such as they inflicted on north Korea. Keep Iran's military on high alert for imminent attack, trying to drain labour and money from civilian production and economy. Iran may have a higher tech defence, but staying on permanent high alert bleeds any nation.

Posted by: Peter AU 1 | Sep 19 2019 21:19 utc | 45


Posted by: Fixer | Sep 19 2019 19:14 utc | 15

"Please use common sense folks. The attack did not happen. It is a psyop and distraction, as is everything coming from official sources nowadays."

So the Houthis are a party to this deception? Or are they just claiming the operation for themselves?

Posted by: Barovsky | Sep 19 2019 21:19 utc | 46

tweet from Tehran. . .
Javad Zarif
‏Verified account @JZarif
3m3 minutes ago

Arab blood vs. Arab oil / A primer on U.S. policy:
- 4 yrs of indiscriminate bombardment of Yemen
- 100,000 dead Yemenis
- 20M malnourished Yemenis
- 2.3M cholera cases
= carte blance for culprits.

- Retaliatory Yemeni strike on oil storage tanks
= unacceptable "act of war"

Posted by: Don Bacon | Sep 19 2019 21:19 utc | 47

..."Bolton told the audience, according to Politico:

After the attack in June, Trump was poised to launch a military response against the Iranians — strongly urged by Bolton — but pulled back after Fox News host Tucker Carlson and others warned him that it was a bad idea.

During Wednesday’s luncheon, Bolton said the planned response had gone through the full process and everybody in the White House had agreed on the retaliatory strike."...

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/bitter-bolton-unloads-trumps-backing-down-iran-war-closed-door-event

Bolton, Pamper pooper Pompeo, Trump apprentice show sucks big time. These cats are scared shitless and are clueless on the next 3d chess move to make.

Locked and loaded, really?

My Mouton Cadet awaits me!

Posted by: Taffyboy | Sep 19 2019 21:20 utc | 48

@Posted by: Piotr Berman | Sep 19 2019 20:58 utc | 42

Yeah...it gives for a good opera...of satiric genre...

How do you swallow that the current representative of Guaidó to the UK ( i.e. Mrs. Ambassador encargada...), Vanessa Neumann, who could be called "Queen of the Drones War", is the same person who is part of the UNSC program for counter-terrorism, and fighting of drug and human trafficking...

Well, this is the wolves put to take care of the hens all the way....The circle is closing around the "War of Drones", "War of Terror", and "Oil War"...and in the middle gets...those of always... CIA/Pentagon...

See to believe...

Venezuela reveals new photographs of Guaidó with narcoparamilitaries from Colombia

If the UNSC would be a useful place for anything someone should be resigning asap...

Posted by: Sasha | Sep 19 2019 21:22 utc | 49

@ Peter AU 1 47
US looks to be moving away from thoughts of attacking Iran and towards long term seige such as they inflicted on north Korea.

Iran is not DPRK. There is no "siege mentality" in Iran. Iran is optimistic, is geographically well located, pretty much controls the Middle East now, is strong militarily, and is very active in many areas including diplomatic and economic, the latter important because Iran has huge petroleum and gas deposits.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Sep 19 2019 21:26 utc | 50

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Sep 19 2019 20:58 utc | 42

Yankee doodle would be fine.

Or you have a huge chessboard where white has aggressively rushed to all the strategic positions without logistical support from pawns and runners whilst black has solidified all defenses and now moves to checkmate.

Posted by: somebody | Sep 19 2019 21:30 utc | 51

@Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 19 2019 21:16 utc | 46

More trolling by Russia in its suggestion for an international investigation into the attack.

No trolling, now the SVR has launched its own investigation process....I think the right thing to do...waiting for the results....of course this will take weeks, contrary to the supersonic thinking process of KSA FM...and "First of his classroom" Pompeo...

Posted by: Sasha | Sep 19 2019 21:33 utc | 52

@ 45
Pepe: Abu Dhabi withdrew from Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman’s vicious war against Yemen and now is engaged in what it describes as a “peace-first” strategy.

Peace-first?
>not from Iran
The report from Iran's Fars News cited an unnamed Yemeni military official who said oil facilities in the UAE "are among our future targets," adding that the attacks against the Saudi oil installation over the weekend also sent a message to Abu Dhabi.
>not from Yemen
Yahia Sarie, a spokesperson for the Houthi’s, told a press conference Wednesday that they have “dozens of targets” in the UAE that “could be targeted at any time.” Sarie refused to name specific targets but said that both Dubai and Abu Dhabi could be targeted.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Sep 19 2019 21:38 utc | 53

Basil Davis@20 Herbert was thinking of oil and Arabs and probably T.E. Lawrence when he wrote Dune. It's on the page.

Posted by: steven t johnson | Sep 19 2019 21:42 utc | 54

The theory that Iran will space the attacks so that there is no world chaos provoking retaliation *and* that the Houthis will escalate their independent attacks until Saudi *and* the UAE surrender makes zero sense to me. Pick one, not both.

Posted by: steven t johnson | Sep 19 2019 21:45 utc | 55

@Posted by: Sasha | Sep 19 2019 21:22 utc | 51

In fact, I hope that Mr. Arreaza, and especially mr. Moncada, who has no mincing words, will bring in the issue of the incompatibility of the position of Vanessa Neumann as ambassador of a close friend of a narcoparamilitar group and at the same time being member of UNSC Counter-Terrorism Executive Directorate (CTED)...

I will no miss this coming interesting session...I hope that in absence of Bibi´s powerpoints and bad drawings, we will be able to enjoy the photgraphs of Guaido so friendly taking himself photos with narcosparamilitares with their own weapons at their waiste or driving his campaign car...

Posted by: Sasha | Sep 19 2019 21:47 utc | 56

karlof1
My thoughts. Smuggling by boat anywhere along the shoreline controlled by the Houthi I have thought could come from anywhere. Boat to boat transfer in the Red Sea and I wouldn't be surprised if it has always been the norm for fisherman to go a long way out for several days at a time. Biggest risk in that is of being stopped and searched by the naval blockade, so perhaps only small items that are easily hidden. Larger equipment and larger shipments would be safe from random UNSC backed stop and search if smuggling lines where set up with the mercs, so the location where supplies were landed would likely depend on where merc groups involved are located. The The UN arms embargo does not cover the US proxies so no problems with random stop and search shipping to them.

Did a little more research on the Quds 1 Houthi cruise missile yesterday. I had run onto photos of a damaged Qus 1 engine and a Czech J-100 side by side and they appeared to be the same down to a sticker on the stainless steel engine cover. Makers say they don't sell these engines to Iran, so manufacture of the Quds one may depend on what engines they can pick up buying one here and there, though I think Iran has the know how and equipment to build a perfect copy down to the sticker.
J-100 info here. https://minijets.org/fileadmin/documents/Basic%20information%20TJ100%20-%20AJ%20revision%205.pdf
I had estimated missile dia to be 300mm or less trying to scale it by the walkways in the Houthi presentation, but the engine is 275mm dia so this would put the missile at around 400mm dia. A lot of bulky parts to smuggle. Much could be made in Yemen, depending on what tech people are left and also equipment. My guess is the engines would be made in Iran and shipped in and even these are relatively large items to hide in a small fishing boat.
Re manufacturing equipment in north Yemen. In the initial split in the military, those going to the US proxy side would have locations of manufacturing equipment for bombing. Same again after Saleh was killed, so perhaps very little in the way of precision machining centers left in north Yemen now.

Posted by: Peter AU 1 | Sep 19 2019 21:54 utc | 57

CarlD @40--

The non-English speaking world--the vast majority--doesn't believe 5-Eyes BigLie media and has said so in their own media. That's why Russia trolled the situation and called for an impartial international investigation to determine who did it. That the Outlaw US Empire and Saudi didn't agree to such speaks very loudly about where the truth lies.

In all honesty, this isn't hard to figure out if you've been paying attention to the turning tide in the war against Yemen and Ansarullah--multiple missile and drone attacks on Saudi airports and military bases in Najran and Asir provinces, King Khalid airbase, and the capital Riyadh to name only a few--as their capabilities have vastly improved since 2017. Here's a brief timeline of some since 14 May 2019, yet never any cry of Iran Did It until just now. That cry is the surest admission of the growing effectiveness of Ansarullah's strategy combined with Saudi coalition ineptitude.

As far as I'm concerned--and I'm sure many in the world share my outlook--the Fakes and Fakers are 5-Eyes BigLie Media and the politicos within their nations and those of the Vassals, and we grow weary and tired of it all.

Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 19 2019 21:58 utc | 58

The Blame Game (nothing to do with actual evidence). . .

from Washington Examiner: The United States will allow Saudi Arabia to decide if there is enough evidence to accuse Iran of conducting last week’s drone and missile strike that crippled two Saudi oil production facilities, the Pentagon says. “We'll wait until the final assessment's completed with the Saudis and that they've made the declaration,” Pentagon spokesman Jonathan Hoffman told reporters Thursday. . .here

from Frane24: "The attack was launched from the north and unquestionably sponsored by Iran," [Saudi] defence ministry spokesman Turki al-Maliki told a press conference. . .here

from FoxNews: The Saudis won't explicitly blame Iran for attacks "because they don't want to be saddled with the burden to respond militarily to Iran because they understand that in such a contest they would be toast," said Miller. . .here

Posted by: Don Bacon | Sep 19 2019 22:01 utc | 59

@ karlof
re: . . .an impartial international investigation
Good luck (to Russia) on that, the "impartial" part, especially one in Saudi Arabia.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Sep 19 2019 22:07 utc | 60

I would expect a measured response.
Not on Iran proper.

Then Iran will need to response with greater force and more directly. Against an exposed target.

Trump would like to sell everyone protection. But it seems maybe it doesn't perform.

Russia falling-out US hardware:
https://www.rt.com/news/469174-saudi-patriots-unfit-combat/

Of course one can't take out own false flag operation (or could one). Really KSA is something of competitor as well in oil anyway and maybe less reliable of late in need of pressure.

What's good for oil and military is good for US.

Of course Iran does not want war either.
If they did, it would already be underway.

Posted by: jared | Sep 19 2019 22:11 utc | 61

Btw, that my point to Pat Lang with respect to him not being able to achieve nothing with the Yemenis was about their unwillingness to collaborate in anything with the him, as representative of the US, not to their real ability...

The current developments of the lat 4 years have given me the reason...I guess...The more US DA in KSA he could have been... me being a humble traveller...I bet the Yemenis would be 1000 times more willing to collaborate with me in whatever thing than with arrogant bragadoccio Pat Lang...,all the more when everybody and their jambiyas know since their first schooldays in Yemen that the first settlers in Al Andalus were some Yemeni families....

Posted by: Sasha | Sep 19 2019 22:12 utc | 62

Correct me if I'm wrong, but Bibi could still cobble a coalition together. Albeit, the chances may slim. As far as I can tell, he's still the PM until a new one is selected. As to the oil field attack, I couldn't have happened to a nicer bunch of fellows. I certainly wouldn't rule out a FF, as that's what the Empire is good at. We'll all know soon enough in the coming weeks and months what damage, if any, was actually done.

Posted by: Shadow | Sep 19 2019 22:12 utc | 63

Don Bacon @55--

Here's the item stating why UAE will be targeted.

Peter AU 1 @59--

That same item also explains why my initial assumption that UAE was providing a shipping corridor to Iran for Ansarullah is most likely incorrect as UAE is highly unlikely to allow the transit of material that could latter be used against it. But then again, more irrational happenings have occurred in the history of warfare.

Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 19 2019 22:20 utc | 64

Tillerson finally speaks up a little ....

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/hayesbrown/rex-tillerson-israel-harvard-netanyahu-misinformation

Posted by: edamame | Sep 19 2019 22:23 utc | 65

This could be the main reason for the attack on Saudis with that timing:

https://theantimedia.com/saudi-fighter-jets-are-helping-israel-bomb-eastern-syria/

Posted by: Uncle Jon | Sep 19 2019 22:24 utc | 66

Something to throw in the face of US representative of Guaidó to UK in the coming UNGA...

30 farmers killed and 40 injured by a bombing of a US drone in Nangarhar. The peasants were confused with combatants from the Islamic State while resting after the harvest of the pine nut.

https://twitter.com/descifraguerra/status/1174712176596201476

Then, with time, a US Defense Attaché in Afgahnistan "retired" wil create a blog to award us with his ramblings and one day will state with absolute confidence that "it was impossible to achieve anything done with the Talibans"...

Posted by: Sasha | Sep 19 2019 22:30 utc | 67

What irks me is the reticence to explain the situation to the population. It goes something like this: Whether you agree or not, Obama cut a deal with the Iranians. They were complying with their end of the deal. Trump unilaterally backed out of the deal and imposed sanctions. Some say crippling sanctions. Iran is trying to get around or out of the sanctions and applying soft to medium pressure where it can but no outright military agression. Part of said pressure is to arm the Yemenis. Saudi Arabia and Yemen are at war. Between direct combat kills, starvation and disease (destroyed water processing and sanitation facilities) Yemen has suffered a quarter million deaths. Using Iranian weapons the Yemeni's lightly attack a Saudi refinery. We blame Iran. The neo-cons want to attack Iran in retaliation. Iran says if they are attacked it's all part of a piece and their response will be disproportionate and asymmetric because they refuse to suffer the effects of the sanctions and "die like dogs" in isolation. In other words if they are attacked they promise to involve all the belligerents (Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Oman, UAE, Israel, etc.) in a regional scuffle with plenty of damage to go round so some from of broad political solution has to be arranged. We have to take them at their word on this.

n result, if we attack Iran, that Saudi facility that everyone is so tweaked about will be leveled (a restoration time measured in years not weeks) by Iranian weapons which are quite capable. Given their other weapons they would probably damage or sink at least one, likely more, American ship(s) of the line, numerous tankers, destroy a number of our bases in the region especially in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria, Hezbolla might decide to start killing Israeli civilians in their own homes, the Israelis would take the opportunity to wipe out Gaza for real, etc., etc., etc. So in other words we can't just roll over Iran like we could Iraq. Iran has four times the population and instead of being poor to midland their armed forces are midland to good. So if we attack Iran the region goes up in flames and the world economy goes down the tubes and China is incredibly pissed, let me say that again, incredibly pissed, because they lose their oil supply.

So the question becomes what's the American interest in the region. And when you look at that, other than empowering our allies, (a bunch of dictators and a Quasi- Fascist state) and the general principle that we own the world and everything in it, nothing. We have no other interests. We are oil independent. We don't need their oil. China does. So I would argue that our "interests" don't include anything worth starting a regional conflagration over that we couldn't win without a draft and a full war time economy.

So I hate to say it, but the main issue on the table at this point is prestige. We have to find a way so both sides can maintain their incoherent bluster, keep a modicum of their prestige in tact, back down and proclaim victory. This is what the United Nations is for. A survival shelter for the great powers. Let's see if they use it.

Posted by: Paul Bogdanich | Sep 19 2019 22:32 utc | 68

Via ZeroHedge
Luongo: Will The Yemen War Be The End Of Saudi Arabia?
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/luongo-will-yemen-war-be-end-saudi-arabia

“If this was a swarm attack from Iraq and Iran, as claimed now (and supported by factless conjecture) then how did all the vaunted U.S. technology fail to account for it?”

“By continuing to spin this attack up as Iranian in origin people like Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and the Saudi Arabian government are throwing the Pentagon under the bus.”

“Meanwhile Iran very calmly keeps denying the attack. I fully expect proof from them in the near future if the U.S. shows “proof” of Iran’s involvement.”

“Think back to the drone incident in June which nearly landed us in a war with Iran. The story morphed and changed with each day. The Iranians had the data, the proof, on their side and they let morons like Pompeo say provably false things before releasing it.”

“Drip Drip Drip” is the strategy, as Andrew Breitbart used to call it. Drip out some information and allow your target to lie about it. Then drip out the next bit exposing that lie. And so on, and so on.
That’s what Iran did in June, humiliating Trump at every turn. And I’m sure if they weren’t behind this attack they will do the same thing in the coming days.”

Posted by: Stever | Sep 19 2019 22:33 utc | 69

Shadow @65--

You're hypothetically correct, but the parties Yahoo might garner as coalition partners don't appear to be interested as he's too long in tooth and mired in corruption for starters. Admittedly, there's not much to go on at present. This RT report does however affirm that Yahoo won't be a part of new government, although his party might be part of the ruling coalition. Looks like we have another victim of the Assad Must Go Curse!

Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 19 2019 22:35 utc | 70

an impartial investigation on ksa soil? kinda like the investigation into kashoggis death that ksa was so helpful on? rof!

Posted by: james | Sep 19 2019 22:54 utc | 71

Paul Bogdanich @70--

This article uses EIA figures to contradict what Trump and BigLie Media are crowing about not needing oil from Southwest Asia:

"The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its latest available report [Link at original] that last year, the US imported about 9.93 million barrels per day of petroleum from some 86 countries, of which 78 percent was crude oil.

"Interestingly, Saudi Arabia was the second largest oil provider for the US, selling it around 900,000 bpd. Iraq was ranked fifth on the list with a little more than half a million bpd. Canada topped the list by selling an average of 4.28 million bpd to the US.

"America produces around 12 million barrels of oil a day but consumes a staggering 20 million bpd, meaning that it needs to import a substantial amount to meet its needs."

Thus the BigLie of the Outlaw US Empire being Energy Independent--one only become independent of energy when one dies--as 8mbpd must be imported, of which @12.5% comes from the Saudis. Then there's the energy needs of the Empire's vassals that need to be considered. So, yes, from an energy standpoint, the Outlaw US Empire continues to have a great deal of interest locked up in Southwest Asia. And I haven't even got into the great importance of Petrodollar recycling.

Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 19 2019 23:03 utc | 72

james
Pompeo has already concluded the impartial investigation.
In the days after the strike - Saudi 'they were Iranian made but we don't know who or where they were launched'
Pompeo arrives - Saudi 'the Iranians dunit'

Posted by: Peter AU 1 | Sep 19 2019 23:06 utc | 73

james @73--

Haven't said hello in awhile! Yes, it is quite the joke isn't it, and great trolling again by Putin who may become a comedian after he retires as Russia's President. Him and Jimmy Dore could probably team up and do a great show together!

Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 19 2019 23:07 utc | 74

@ Peter AU 1 66
Here's the item stating why UAE will be targeted.

Thanks for that. I looked for material evidence (military) and couldn't find it. Apparently it's just a refusal to make an obvious withdrawal.
Another reason could be a nudge from Iran. UAE was in several ways an Iran ally but has recently knuckled under to US sanctions, and this has especially hurt Iranians who were involved financially in various commercial transactions. Part of Iran's strategy is to keep events moving, as I indicated in my 52 above.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Sep 19 2019 23:09 utc | 75

@ 77
The President of Ukraine is a comedian, and how about that Donald in the USA? But the funniest are the professional politicians, depending of course on one's sense of humor.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Sep 19 2019 23:12 utc | 76

There are also supposedly three Skyguard laser area defense systems around Abqaiq as well as the Patriot battery on the east side.

https://ic.pics.livejournal.com/imp_navigator/17993765/2984919/2984919_1000.jpg

In other news, the Houthis demonstrate their latest fuel efficient, environmentally friendly, low radar cross-section technical.

https://i106.fastpic.ru/big/2019/0919/03/421090f5760567282bbb42ef5172a403.jpg

With this sort of technology base, the Houthis could penetrate deep into Saudi Arabia to reduce range to suit their aerial weapons.

Posted by: Yonatan | Sep 19 2019 23:14 utc | 77

Early after the strike, Houthi's stated they used a mix of jet and piston engine aircraft. The Quds-1 is the only jet engined craft known to be in the Houthi line up Looks to be the only dedicated cruise missile. Next on the list of long range aircraft capable of carrying a payload is the piston engined Samad-3. https://www.janes.com/article/89746/yemeni-rebels-unveil-cruise-missile-long-range-uavs.
The range and payload make the Quds-1 the most effect craft to use against oil infrastructure, as some has very heavy wall thickness steel. That they used a mix it is quite likely that production or supply of these missiles is very low.

Posted by: Peter AU 1 | Sep 19 2019 23:17 utc | 78

@Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 19 2019 23:03 utc | 74

More on the hoax of US Oil self-sufficiency and which could well be related to this attack and current prospects of war on Iran, Venezuela, Hezbollah and so on...

The New American Oil Empire Built on Sand

Posted by: Sasha | Sep 19 2019 23:19 utc | 79

PB @70 said

"So I hate to say it, but the main issue on the table at this point is prestige. "

Only one has got its knickers in a knot about saving face. I can see it in the posts.

Tis only a flesh wound

Posted by: arby | Sep 19 2019 23:19 utc | 80

karlof1 @74

My post was brief and not especially specific. The point is that if 50 to 70% of Arabian production goes off-line, because processing facilities are destroyed or the straight of Hormuz is closed, the only large sources of oil in the world at that point are the Americas, Canada and Russia. So when I say energy independent or something of the sort I don't mean we're insulate. Yes, we would be badly hurt economically as gas would be above $5.00 maybe $8.00 a gallon (what I said about the global economy going down the tubes) but we would still have enough of it to ration by price. Europe, India and China wouldn't have a sufficient amount to ration by price. The Russians would be in the cat bird seat. It would be a disaster for the west and I say again the Chinese would be incredibly pissed off. Very, very, angry. Trump has to find a way to maintain prestige and back down or find the humility to quietly eat crow. The Russians who are normally helpful in situations like this can't be counted on in this instance because they have the most to gain and contrary to American propaganda, Putin does not call all the shots. The oligarchs have tremendous influence.

Posted by: Paul Bogdanich | Sep 19 2019 23:19 utc | 81

Regarding radar attendance, surveillance for the people who do it is a boring pain requiring constant supervision and dealing with non-dangerous alarms like from animals like birds (in the air) and coyotes (on the ground).

The US has had trouble securing its border relying upon surveillance. ..from 2005 report...

Based on an analysis of sample ICAD data, ISIS remote surveillance technology yielded few apprehensions as a percentage of detection, resulted in needless investigations of legitimate activity, and consumed valuable staff time to perform video analysis or investigate sensor alerts. . . .here

So the operators nod off or leave, as on 9/11.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Sep 19 2019 23:28 utc | 82

Arby @ 83

In America it is now prohibited to use subtle references to Monty Python ("Tis but a flesh wound"). That type of humor does not comport to out leftist P.C. standards. It's an insane world right now and insanity at that scale is very dangerous.

Posted by: Paul Bogdanich | Sep 19 2019 23:28 utc | 83

It occurs to me that the Houthis started the rapid improvement in capabilities around the time they disposed of Saleh and resolved their internal disputes. Very rapid improvement since then. It would be interesting to get to know the people behind that, making it happen. Is Seulimani in there somewhere? Nasrallah and his minions? I'll bet.

Posted by: Bemildred | Sep 19 2019 23:31 utc | 84

Paul Bogdanich
I agree on the oil side of your comment @84 and believe this is the reason Trump wants good relations with Russia.
On who controls Russia, the oligarchs that were good business managers still control their business but this is only while they are subservient to the state and work in state interests. As they control some of Russia's strategic manufacturing and supply, their businesses will be nationalised if they do not perform.

Posted by: Peter AU 1 | Sep 19 2019 23:34 utc | 85

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/06/190620100005.htm


insulate yourself better. this would be the only reason for US to go to Iran, because it can't even feed itself never mind trying to corner the market on gas and crude products by attempting to sanction China so China will buy from USA and Saudi.

Posted by: jason | Sep 19 2019 23:42 utc | 86

Peter at 88

You said, "On who controls Russia, the oligarchs that were good business managers still control their business but this is only while they are subservient to the state and work in state interests. As they control some of Russia's strategic manufacturing and supply, their businesses will be nationalised if they do not perform."

Ultimately. But Putin is still a political animal and the oligarchs, and the oil workers and their communities, are still an important constituency and $100.00 a barrel oil would greatly benefit them and the state through the taxation. For that reason I don't believe Putin will be especially quick to help like he did in brokering the deal that Iran signed with Obama in the fist place.

I just hope it works out. It's all very precarious right now. Fact is Trump talks too much. Goes down great domestically but internationally it's a huge problem.

Posted by: Paul Bogdanich | Sep 19 2019 23:42 utc | 87

@B,

Here is an exhaustive analysis of the Saudi defences in the area.

https://twitter.com/DuitsyWasHere/status/1174186756708679681

Posted by: powerandpeople | Sep 19 2019 23:42 utc | 88

As I said, the reason for the f/f:
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/triumph-candidate-trumps-foreign-policy-backing-war-iran

Desperate times.

Posted by: jared | Sep 19 2019 23:45 utc | 89

on Saturday morning I was watching live the event on a local resident´s cellphone. I heard Kalashnikov type gunshots coming from the refinery. surely something was taking place on the ground.

Posted by: nietzsche1510 | Sep 19 2019 23:53 utc | 90

Not a single dead saudi in the huge drones attack? weird.. is there is no one around? week-end?

Posted by: Virgile | Sep 20 2019 0:26 utc | 91

craig murray has an article up today that some might enjoy on the saudi gangster family and etc..

Beneath Contempt

Posted by: james | Sep 20 2019 0:36 utc | 92

Bogdanich @ 84

You mean the stavka has tremendous influence.

Posted by: pogohere | Sep 20 2019 0:44 utc | 93

The noose keeps tightening on Iran.

Both sides have game-played every aspect of this confrontation. That's why I believe that reasonable preparations against a Houthi drone/missile attack were deliberately neglected. USA-Israel-Saudi use every action by Iran/Houthi/Hezbollah to escalate. And all responsibility is placed on the doorstep of the Iranian leadership.

Every escalation actually works to the advantage of USA-Saudi because increased oil prices are a net positive for them while Iran sales are curtailed.

Next crisis seems likely to mean war.

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Sep 20 2019 0:48 utc | 94

Yes karloff1, I agree. Satanuhauls done. I sincerely doubt that the next PM will be any more sane. I'm living in the belly of the beast here in Bolshevik CA, so I have reason to distrust our govt and leaders. Trump's foreign policy is at best, idiotic. Don't count on any sanity from DC. I'm just wondering who he'll threaten next as we know he's painted himself into a corner with Iran. Bring out the blind, drunk decision monkey to throw darts at a board. Cheers everyone!

Posted by: Shadow | Sep 20 2019 0:49 utc | 95

@ 88
The question: Why does Trump want good relations with Russia?
It don't know, but it could be that it just makes sense on its own merits. It's the opposite side of the coin of when Nixon turned the US antipathy toward China to friendship, to gain an ally against the then-appointed US chief enemy, USSR.
Now China is the chief US appointed enemy. But the animosity toward Russia which Obama/Clinton created, without any good reason, and now forced on Trump, has served to move Russia closer to China than it's ever been. Bad idea. No reason for it.
That may be Trump's reason. It just makes sense.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Sep 20 2019 0:50 utc | 96

Before people rush to complain that its the Empire that will meet its downfall if it attacks Iran, let me add that:

1) It's just a figure of speach;

2) The Empire is the protagonist (IMO) and as such they have the initiative;

3) It's unclear (IMO) who would 'win' such a war - it seems very likely to become WWIII.

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Sep 20 2019 0:53 utc | 97

@ shadow 98
Trump's foreign policy is at best, idiotic.
Just to put it in context, I suppose Hillary the war-queen would have been better? . . .Not.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Sep 20 2019 0:54 utc | 98

To Jen @76:

Your mention of the Baal Shem Tov elicited from me, that Martin Buber was highly influenced by this person in his writings, and in particular in his 'Tales of the Hasidim'. The introduction by Chaim Potok gives: "...Modern Hasidism is the child of Rabbi Israel ben Eliezer of Mezbizh, known as the Baal Shem Tov, Master of the Good Name (1700-1760). He was, it appears, a man both learned and charismatic, a folk healer, one of those who went about curing the sick by invoking the various mystical names of God. Concerning his life, words, and deeds, we have only legends..."

Potok continues: "...Hasidism saw the line connecting man to man and man to God as relation and not as subject-object; as sacred betweenness and not as user to used..."

Modern hasidism is a differnt beast, but Buber found its origins enlightening. As is his interpretation of the tales.

Posted by: juliania | Sep 20 2019 0:55 utc | 99

The Saudis can say they partially restored production because the plant was surely completely shut down after the strike. The damaged areas would be isolated and sealed off and the undamaged areas would be placed back into production after an inspection. That is typically how it should work. It is a months worth of damage. Not a really big deal but it does bump the price up at the pump. The big deal comes if the attacks continue at a rapid pace. That is what we need to watch. Timing is everything.

Trump could easily get out of this mess by letting Iran export oil again. My guess is that Iran would back down to some extent. Trump could save face by keeping some of the sanctions in place.

The carnage in Yemen will continue. The cynical side of me says they are being exploited by larger powers.

Both sides are lying through their teeth. Partial truths mixed with disinformation. I would not trust any of them.

Posted by: dltravers | Sep 20 2019 0:56 utc | 100

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