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Boeing Foresees Return Of The 737 MAX In November – But Not Everywhere
The Boeing 737 MAX was expected to be flying again in October. Yesterday Boeing's CEO Dennis Muilenburg pushed that date to November:
Boeing chairman and chief executive Dennis Muilenburg on Wednesday reiterated his projection that, despite concerns publicly expressed by Europe’s air safety regulator, the 737 MAX should begin to return to service around November.
This is unlikely to be the last change of the date. Muilenburg had additional bad news:
However, he conceded that lack of alignment among international regulatory bodies could mean that the grounded jet may first resume flying in the United States, with other major countries following later.
“We’re making good, solid progress on a return to service,” Muilenburg said, speaking at a Morgan Stanley investor conference in Laguna Beach, Calif. He later added that “a phased ungrounding of the airplane among regulators around the world is a possibility.”
The "phased ungrounding" means that the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration would certify the plane as being safe while other regulators would still not do so. U.S. passengers would be asked to fly on a plane that the rest of the world would still consider too unsafe to fly. 737 MAX flights from the U.S. to other countries would still be grounded as would the by far largest part of the total fleet in Europe and China.
It is doubtful that insurance providers, U.S. airlines, their passengers and their pilots would welcome such a "phased" move. It is an extremely risky behavior. Any accident during that time, no matter for what reason, would bring the affected airline, Boeing and the FAA into even deeper trouble.
It is likely that Boeing and the FAA would like to blame the foreign regulators for making late or unreasonable demands. But the history of the two deadly 737 MAX accidents and the development since prove that only Boeing and the FAA are to blame for this.
The Muilenburg statement followed a September 3 presentation (pdf) by the chief of the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) Patrick Ky for the European parliament. It documents how EASA early on told the FAA and Boeing what it would do before allowing the plane back into the air.
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On April 1 EASA set 4 conditions:
Cont. reading: Boeing Foresees Return Of The 737 MAX In November – But Not Everywhere
Open Thread 2019-53
Obama And Brennan Burned A Very Useful Spy And Now CNN Outs Him
A sensational CNN story claimed yesterday that Trump caused the extraction of a U.S. spy from Moscow. The story was false but had the effect of outing the spy and where he now lives:
In a previously undisclosed secret mission in 2017, the United States successfully extracted from Russia one of its highest-level covert sources inside the Russian government, multiple Trump administration officials with direct knowledge told CNN.
A person directly involved in the discussions said that the removal of the Russian was driven, in part, by concerns that President Donald Trump and his administration repeatedly mishandled classified intelligence and could contribute to exposing the covert source as a spy.
The decision to carry out the extraction occurred soon after a May 2017 meeting in the Oval Office in which Trump discussed highly classified intelligence with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and then-Russian Ambassador to the US Sergey Kislyak. The intelligence, concerning ISIS in Syria, had been provided by Israel.
A New York Times opinion writer swallowed the above story and used it to write a piece about Trump's alleged untrustworthiness. Then her own paper debunked the CNN claim.
The story sounded dubious to me and I voiced doubt about it at Patrick Lang's site.
The CNN report allowed others to identify the spy. An aide to President Putin's foreign policy advisor had vanished around the time CNN described. The Russian Kommersant identified him and found the place where he now lives (machine translated):
Cont. reading: Obama And Brennan Burned A Very Useful Spy And Now CNN Outs Him
Trump Fires Yosemite Sam
Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump – 17:58 UTC · 10 Sep 2019
I informed John Bolton last night that his services are no longer needed at the White House. I disagreed strongly with many of his suggestions, as did others in the Administration, and therefore….
…I asked John for his resignation, which was given to me this morning. I thank John very much for his service. I will be naming a new National Security Advisor next week.
Oh happy day!
Bolton disagrees with Trump's tweet and he is now texting reporters to say that he wasn't fired but resigned:
Robert Costa @costareports – 18:16 UTC · 10 Sep 2019
Ambassador Bolton sends me a text message just now: “Let’s be clear, I resigned, having offered to do so last night.”
John Bolton was the worst person I could think of to become National Security Advisor. But Trump being Trump he may find an even worse one. How about Jared Kushner?
Bolton will not take his firing without some revenge. There will soon be tons of 'leaks' in which a "former senior administration official" will claim that Trump did this or that very, very bad thing.
Gabby Orr @GabbyOrr_ – 18:43 UTC · 10 Sep 2019
A consistent complaint among Trump loyalists & fellow WH officials is that Bolton and his camp were extremely leaky. Doesn’t help that he’s texting every reporter in his rolodex now to clarify that he wasn’t canned
While he did not work long as Trump's NSA Bolton managed to create a lot of damage.
Cont. reading: Trump Fires Yosemite Sam
A Small Reminder Of The Lower-Than-Zero Value Of Partisan ‘Analysts’
Avi Issacharoff is an Israeli 'Middle East analyst' who writes for the Times of Israel and other such outlets.
On August 27 he asserted that the drones which attacked Hizbullah in Beirut were not from Israel and that Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah was lying about them.
Nasrallah is lying about Israeli drones in Beirut; Lebanon must urgently wise up
[W]hen it comes to the recent developments surrounding the Israeli attack at Akraba south of Damascus on Saturday night, and especially surrounding the two mysterious drones that subsequently crashed/exploded in the Hezbollah stronghold of Dahiyeh in Beirut, Nasrallah is lying. Lying through his teeth.
He lied in his speech on Sunday night when he described these two recent events. And he lied in the statement that his organization published on Monday night claiming that the two “Israeli” drones in Beirut were carrying explosives.
First of all, as has already been widely reported, these were not Israeli drones. Nor did they look like Israeli drones.
Every child in Dahiyeh knows that if Israel were involved in this incident, there was certainly no intention to blow up or assassinate but rather to convey a message.
Even if we believe for a moment the narrative Nasrallah advanced in his speech, where he described how one of these drones flew at such a low altitude that people in the neighborhood were able to bring it down by throwing stones at it, does anybody in the Middle East who’s ever encountered an Israeli drone find that description credible?
…
In the meantime, the official Israeli explanation of what really happened has not been heard, and therefore the field has been left open to the deluge of lies and fabrications being disseminated by Hezbollah. And through these lies and fabrications, Nasrallah has, in turn, painted himself and all of Lebanon into a corner.
Just five days after accusing Nasrallah of being a liar Avi Issacharoff exposed himself as such. Suddenly he had no doubt at all that the drone had come from Israel and were used against Hizbullah:
Hezbollah had vowed to exact revenge on Israel over the IDF’s operation in the Dahiya neighborhood in Beirut last week, as well as for the killing of two operatives south of Damascus, …
…
[A]t the end of the day, the complex operations that took place almost simultaneously in Akraba, south of Damascus, and in Beirut’s Dahiya – the details of which remain largely classified at this time – did not provoke an overly forceful response from Hezbollah.
There is of course no remorse about the false 'analysis' provided previously nor a retraction of the nonsense Issacharoff had written five days earlier.
In response to the Israeli attack Nasrallah promised to take down Israeli drones if they fly over Lebanon. Today that promised was fulfilled for the first time:
The Iran-backed Hezbollah movement said Monday it had downed and seized an Israeli drone as it flew across the Lebanese border, a week after a flash confrontation between the arch-foes.
…
The Shiite militant group said it subsequently retrieved the device, but did not provide pictures.
An Israeli army spokeswoman told AFP a drone "fell" in Lebanese territory, adding that "there is no risk of a breach of information".
Nasrallah is expected make another speak tonight. He may make some additional announcements which Avi Issacharoff and other 'analysts' may then again question.
They are free to do so but it is obvious whose words deserve more trust.
The MoA Week In Review – OT 2019-52
Last week’s posts at Moon of Alabama:
Related:
Former Boeing official subpoenaed in 737 MAX probe won’t turn over documents, citing Fifth Amendment protection – Seattle Times
This is the Boeing pilot who told the FAA that MCAS does not need to be mentioned during pilot training. The FAA agreed with him.
Door blows out during ground test on Boeing 777X jet – Seattle Times
This happened during an overpressure and wing bending test on the new version of the 777. Maybe it is an easy to fix issue. But this learned speculation lets me assume that there is a much bigger issue behind it:
Frames were changed from sheet metal to milled aluminum and reduced by 2″ thickness each, giving a total of 4″ additional space.
So they might be as strong as on the “traditional” 777 but more flexible (stiffness increases at the order of 4 with thickness), causing more deformation to the door surround structure and putting more loads on the locking system.
Rob Slane at The Blogmire explains the current Brexit situation:
There are a number of parties. One of them wants to take us out, but there are some within that party that didn’t want to take us out, so they were kicked out by the man who just came in. In order to get us out, the man who just came in tried to get himself out, so that he could then get back in, in order to take us out. But he was thwarted by the other parties, who despite wanting him out, kept him in because they fear that if he gets out, he will then get back in and will then take us out. But if they can keep him in long enough, and prevent him from taking us out, they figure that soon after he has failed to take us out, they will be able to get him out and get themselves in. And then after he gets out and they get in, they may try to take us out or they may try to keep us in. It’s anyone’s guess. Then again, it’s entirely possible that if they do get in, they might try to get us out, then campaign against their deal for taking us out to try and keep us in. It really is that simple.
When panic sets in:
Air Force Puts Out Contract Opportunity Announcement For Literally Anything Hypersonic – The Drive
Related:
How India secretly armed Afghanistan’s Northern Alliance – The Hindu
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Other issues:
Cont. reading: The MoA Week In Review – OT 2019-52
To Leave Afghanistan Just Leave Afghanistan
AP reports: Trump calls off secret meeting with Taliban, Afghan leaders
President Donald Trump said Saturday he canceled a secret weekend meeting at Camp David with Taliban and Afghanistan leaders after a bombing in the past week in Kabul that killed 12 people, including an American soldier, and has called off peace negotiations with the insurgent group.
It is doubtful that the meeting was planned at all. The optics of such a meeting, shortly before an 9/11 anniversary, would have been too terrible. On Friday the Afghan President Ghani already said that he would not come to Washington. And would the Taliban leaders really step on a U.S. plane or helicopter to fly to Camp David when the real destination might well be Guantanamo Bay?
There is also this:
Dalchico @Dalchico 1:14 UTC· Sep 8, 2019
I hope reporters will investigate this. As a resident of Frederick County, where Camp David is located, I’m highly skeptical as I have seen no evidence of planning and preparation. There is usually increased helicopter activity for events held at CD.
It is good that there was no such meeting. The negotiations with the Taliban were never going to work anyway. The blob wants to keep U.S. troops in Afghanistan, the Taliban want them out. All of them. The recent negotiations in Qatar were going nowhere as neither side budged on those central points. Trump finally acknowledged that by calling off a meeting that was not going to happen anyway.
Trump had the right instinct to press for the U.S. to leave Afghanistan. The situation there is getting worse by the day and there is nothing that any number of U.S. troops can do to change that. The Afghan government is utterly corrupt. Its troops and police have high casualty rates and fail in every battle. The Taliban own most of the countryside.
Why negotiate with the Taliban at all? As the U.S. can do little to them they would have no incentive to stick to any promise they make.
The U.S. should just leave as long as it can. There will come a point when the only way out will be by helicopter from the embassy roof. Check the map. That day will come sooner than many assume.
Drexl Spivey @RisboLensky – 20:26 UTC · Sep 6 2019
Roads in #Afghanistan today’s situation based on @ArianaNews_ and my data
red-total #Taliban control
orange-occasional #Taliban control
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Media Make False “Russian Prisoners” Claims To Blame Russia, Hide Ukraine’s Civil War
Fakenews:
Reuters: Russia and Ukraine swap prisoners in first sign of thawing relations
On the same day, a group of 35 Russian prisoners held in Ukraine landed in Moscow as part of the deal.
CNN: Film director Oleg Sentsov and MH17 suspect among those freed in Russia-Ukraine prisoner swap
The return of 35 Ukranian prisoners and 35 Russian prisoners is a move that could ease tensions between the two countries after Moscow's annexation of Crimea in 2014.
Human Rights Watch: Russia/Ukraine Prisoner Exchange Includes Release of Oleg Sentsov
At around the same time, a plane with 35 Russian prisoners, released by Ukraine, landed in Moscow.
Real news:
Jonah Fisher @JonahFisherBBC – 14:44 UTC · Sep 7, 2019
35 prisoners flew Kiev to Moscow as part of the swap. 22 of them have Ukrainian passports, 1 Moldovan, the rest Russian. Tsemakh the MH17 “witness” confirmed officially as swapped.
LB.ua (machine translated): At least 30 Ukrainian citizens left for Russia as part of the exchange
In the framework of the exchange of prisoners, Ukraine gave Russia 35 prisoners, at least 30 of whom are citizens of Ukraine. This follows from the preliminary list that appeared in the media.
The difference between the 30 Ukrainians LB.ua counts and the 22 Ukrainian passports tally by BBC Kiev reporter Jonah Fisher are people from Crimea who now have Russian passports but who the Ukraine counts as Ukrainians.
So Ukraine released "at least" 30 (former) Ukrainians, 1 Moldavian and maybe a few Russians who probably never took part in the war in east Ukraine. One of the Russians released today was one Evgeny Mefedov (pictured) of whom LB.ua writes (machine translated):
Russian, a participant in the Odessa "Anti-Maidan" and clashes on May 2, 2014.
He claimed that he came to Odessa as a tourist.
In September 2017, he was acquitted in a riot case, but was immediately detained for an encroachment on the territorial integrity of Ukraine.
Mefedov had done nothing. He was imprisoned five long years for being a Russian who visited Odessa at the wrong time.
The Ukrainian accounts find many less "Russian" prisoners than the "35 Russian prisoners" Reuters, CNN and HRW falsely claim.
In the still smoldering civil war in east Ukraine Ukrainians are fighting against Ukrainians. There was and is no "Russian invasion" of the Ukraine as 'western' media want to make us believe. The prisoners' nationalities prove it but Reuters CNN and HRW do not want you to know that. They want their readers to believe that "Russia did it".
A hat tip for the above goes to Ivan Katchanovski, a political scientist at the University of Ottawa who works on Ukrainian civil war issues.
Ivan Katchanovski @I_Katchanovski – 13:02 UTC · Sep 7, 2019
My analysis shows that overwhelming majority of more than 1,000 people, who were exchanged by #Ukraine government with #donbas separatists or #Russia in 2014-2019, were Ukrainian citizens, 1.5% regular Russian military members & 4% other #Russian citizens.
State Department ‘Swagger’ Means Offering Bribes
U.S. Secretary of State "we lie, we cheat, we steal" Mike Pompeo said that U.S. diplomats must have "swagger". This is what he meant:
Four days before the US imposed sanctions on an Iranian tanker suspected of shipping oil to Syria, the vessel’s Indian captain received an unusual email from the top Iran official at the Department of State.
This is Brian Hook . . . I work for secretary of state Mike Pompeo and serve as the US Representative for Iran,” Mr Hook wrote to Akhilesh Kumar on August 26, according to several emails seen by the Financial Times. “I am writing with good news.”
The “good news” was that the Trump administration was offering Mr Kumar several million dollars to pilot the ship — until recently known as the Grace 1 — to a country that would impound the vessel on behalf of the US. To make sure Mr Kumar did not mistake the email for a scam, it included an official state department phone number.
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As the captain did not agree to be bribed the U.S. sanctioned him. The ship now sits off the Syrian coast and is unloading its 2 million barrels of oil. That will be enough for three month of Syria's consumption.
Farsnews notes that this was not the first time the U.S. tried to bribe and pressure tanker captains:
Hook, who heads the state department’s Iran Action Group, has emailed or texted roughly a dozen captains in recent months in an effort to scare mariners into understanding that helping Iran evade sanctions comes at a heavy price.
No one fell for it. The Iranian ship captains are obviously patriots who do not take bribes from the enemies of their country.
Brian Hook has a really lousy job and zero success in it.
Putin Trolls Trump
This is some high class trolling by Russia's President Vladimir Putin:
Putin said he offered U.S. President Donald Trump in a recent phone call the chance to buy one of the hypersonic nuclear weapons Moscow is developing. He said Trump spurned the offer and replied that Washington was making its own.
Hypersonic weapons fly faster than Mach 5 or five times the speed of sound. Their high speed leaves little warning time for the target. There are currently no practical defenses against them.
While the U.S. spent an enormous amount on developing large aircraft carriers, 'stealth' airplanes and useless missile defenses, Russia spent much less to developed weapons that can defeat all three. Carriers are today, at least for Russia, India and China, not threats but large and juicy targets.
Kh-47M2 Kinzhal Mach 12 capable missile carried by a MIG-31
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Trump is wrong in claiming that the U.S. makes its own hypersonic weapons. While the U.S. has some in development none will be ready before 2022 and likely only much later. Hypersonic weapons are a Soviet/Russian invention. The ones Russia now puts into service are already the third generation. U.S. development of such missiles is at least two generations behind Russia's.
That Russian radar can 'see' stealth aircraft has been known since 1999 when a Yugoslav army unit shot down a U.S. F-117 Nighthawk stealth aircraft. Russian air and missile defense proved in Syria that it can defeat mass attacks by drones as well as by cruise missiles. U.S.-made air and missile defense in Saudi Arabia fails to take down even the primitive missiles Houthi forces fire against it.
The new weapons Russia announced in March 2018 make strategic missile defense useless.
The U.S. military and its weapons are regularly hyped in 'western' media. But it has long been clear to (non-U.S.) experts that U.S. military technology is not superior to that of other countries. In several important fields Russian, Chinese and even Indian weapons have much better capabilities. The reason is simple. U.S. weapons are not developed or built with a real strategic need in mind. They don't get developed for achieving the most effect in an existential war against a capable enemy but to create profit.
The last is probably the only thing Trump knows about them.
A Brexit Thread
I give way to the Leader of The House of Commons the right honorable Jacob William Rees-Mogg.
source (vid) – bigger
The Parliament of the UK just voted 329-300 for the preliminary approval of a bill aimed at preventing a no-deal Brexit. The bill requires the government to seek an extension to Article 50 if it does not have a deal for the UK’s exit from the EU. There is now a discussion about various amendments to the bill which will then need a second and third vote to become law.
Even if the bill becomes law it is is not assured that the Boris Johnson government would follow it.
737 MAX – Boeing Insults International Safety Regulators As New Problems Cause Longer Grounding
United Airline and American Airlines further prolonged the grounding of their Boeing 737 MAX airplanes. They now schedule the plane's return to the flight line in December. But it is likely that the grounding will continue well into the next year.
After Boeing's shabby design and lack of safety analysis of its Maneuver Characteristics Augmentation System (MCAS) led to the death of 347 people, the grounding of the type and billions of losses, one would expect the company to show some decency and humility. Unfortunately Boeing behavior demonstrates none.
There is still little detailed information on how Boeing will fix MCAS. Nothing was said by Boeing about the manual trim system of the 737 MAX that does not work when it is needed. The unprotected rudder cables of the plane do not meet safety guidelines but were still certified. The planes flight control computers can be overwhelmed by bad data and a fix will be difficult to implement. Boeing continues to say nothing about these issues.
International flight safety regulators no longer trust the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) which failed to uncover those problems when it originally certified the new type. The FAA was also the last regulator to ground the plane after two 737 MAX had crashed. The European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) asked Boeing to explain and correct five major issues it identified. Other regulators asked additional questions.
Boeing needs to regain the trust of the airlines, pilots and passengers to be able to again sell those planes. Only full and detailed information can achieve that. But the company does not provide any.
As Boeing sells some 80% of its airplanes abroad it needs the good will of the international regulators to get the 737 MAX back into the air. This makes the arrogance it displayed in a meeting with those regulators inexplicable:
Cont. reading: 737 MAX – Boeing Insults International Safety Regulators As New Problems Cause Longer Grounding
Hong Kong Rioters Wage Sabotage Campaign To Press Congress Into Punishing China
The Associated Press is doing its best to make the Hong Kong police look bad by describing an incident without its context:
Late at night Saturday, video from Hong Kong broadcaster TVB showed police on the platform of Prince Edward subway station swinging batons at passengers who backed into one end of a train car behind umbrellas. The video also shows pepper spray being shot through an open door at a group seated on the floor while one man holds up his hands.
Police officers said at a briefing Monday that they rejected accusations that they “beat up” ordinary citizens without first confirming their identities. They said they specifically targeted those who they believed to be rioters, including those who had changed out of their black protester outfits, and arrested 63 people on suspicion of illegal assembly and possessing explosives and offensive weapons.
The incident described in the first paragraph above did indeed happen. But it was only the last part of a larger story which the AP fails to mention. Here is how it started:
The violence in Prince Edward Station began during a dispute between protesters and some older men who were insulting them. One of the men swung a hammer at the protesters, who threw water bottles and umbrellas and later appeared to set off fire extinguishers in the car. After the clashes, the subway system suspended service across much of Hong Kong. Three stations remained closed on Sunday.
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Some 30 black clad people with gas masks and helmets had entered a train to ride to another place to create another of their usual flash mob riots. The other passengers clearly disagree with the rioters' plans. Some made remarks the black clad youth disliked.
Cont. reading: Hong Kong Rioters Wage Sabotage Campaign To Press Congress Into Punishing China
The MoA Week In Review – OT 2019-51
Last week's posts at Moon of Alabama:
Last night Saudi Arabia bombed a Houthi run detention center in Yemen's southwestern province of Dhamar multiple times. Over 60 people were killed. The prison was registered with the International Red Cross and had been visited by ICRC staff. The Saudis knew exactly what it was. Similar Saudi attacks on prisons took place in December 2017 in Sanaa and in October 2016 near Hodeidah port. Most of the prisoners were on the Saudi side of the war. Why did it kill them?
There are murky reports that several thousand Saudi proxy forces and Saudi special force are under siege north of Kitaf in Sadaa province in north Yemen: Mansour Hadi’s forces in north of Kitaf are still under siege by Ansar Allah and heavy engagements continuing – ISW News
As predicted the unilateral ceasefire ended after the strike. Syrian army artillery shelled some 'rebel' positions. Air attacks have not yet resumed. The Russian military smartly denies that it knew of the U.S. attack.
Other issues:
Loser of the week: Bretbug Stephens and everyone working for the New York Times. – LA Times / WaPo
The Epstein saga continues to make waves – at least in Britain. Peter Mandelson ex-Labour minister pictured shopping with Epstein 2005 – Daily Mail
The Taliban are winning in Afghanistan. Trump wants all U.S. troops out of there before the defeat becomes obvious. John Bolton is trying to prevent that. The welcome result: Bolton sidelined from Afghanistan policy as his standing with Trump falters – Washington Post
Israel is getting nervous: Israel is hiding its soldiers and Hezbollah is winning without firing a shot- so far. – E.J. Magnier.
While I wrote the above antitank missiles fired from Lebanon hit an Israeli military target. The expected strike was in retaliation of Israel's recent killing of two Hizbullah personnel in Syria and its drone attack in Beirut. Will Netanyahoo escalate and start a war to win his reelection?
Use as open thread …
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