|
Syria – Coordinated Foreign Airstrike Kills Leaders Of Two Al-Qaeda Aligned Groups
Some three hours ago an air- or missile strike in Syria's Idleb governorate hit a meeting of leaders of the al-Qaeda aligned Haras-al-Din and Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) aka Jabhat al-Nusra. Both were killed. It is likely that leaders of other Jihadist groups were also present. The hit completely destroyed a Haras al-Din guesthouse or headquarter. The Syrian Observatory says that more than 40 people were killed in the strike. The hit will make it much easier for the Syrian army campaign to liberate Idleb governorate.
Idleb governorate – Red=Syrian army, Green=Jihadis, Yello-Kurds
bigger
Since yesterday evening a unilateral ceasefire has been observed by the Syrian and Russian forces. Today none of their jets bombed targets in Idleb governorate. Whoever carried out today's strike must have coordinated that with the Russian command beforehand.
The Observatory notes (machine translated):
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights documented the killing of more than 40 people from jihadi groups, including leaders, as a result of rocket attacks on the headquarters and meeting room of the “Haradh al-Mu'minin” operation, whose guards are the main pillars in addition to other jihadi groups, in the area between Kefraya and Maarat Masrin east of Idlib The strikes were the result of aerial bombardment by international coalition aircraft, and the Syrian Observatory has just published that it rocked more than 7 fierce explosions in the area between the city of Idlib and the town of Kefraya east of the city on Saturday afternoon, 31 August, caused by rocket strikes targeting Headquarters for the guards faction It is not known whether the strikes were carried out by international coalition aircraft over Turkish territory, or whether they were long-range missiles …
The impact of the strikes was quite impressive:
bigger
Videos shows that the target was a two story house and some side buildings in the middle of an orchard. The house pancaked and is completely destroyed. The so called 'White Helmets' swarm all over the place. One wounded child is visible in the first video.
The strike might have been carried out by either the U.S. or by Turkey. It is likely Turkey that has the better on-the-ground intelligence insight on these groups as Turkey has for years directly supplied them with weapons, munitions and other goods. The Turkish President Erdogan changed his position on Idleb after his recent visit to Moscow. He stopped the supplies to the 'rebels' to allow the Syrian campaign against them to succeed. The so called 'rebels' Turkey has long supported now turn against it.
Another detail that supports this hypothesis is the sudden lack of anti-armor missiles in the hands of the 'rebels':
The use of anti-tank guided missiles (ATGM) by militant groups against the Syrian Army in Idlib province has fallen to almost zero as of the final days of August.
…
Since the Syrian Army kicked-off its Greater Idlib ground offensive against Islamist groups in early May, about 100 guided missiles from various systems have been used by militant groups during the three and a half months since.
It is pretty obvious that Turkey has ended its missile supply to the 'rebels':
[O]ne only needs to assess the current attitude on pro-militant social media right now – an attitude which is highly critical of Turkey’s lack of intervention in Idlib, a major part of this lack of intervention being identified by these sources as the sudden “collapse” (or rather, withholding) of ATGM supplies by Turkey.
The cutting off of supplies for the Jihadists in Idleb and the closing of the borders to 'rebels' who want to flee to Turkey has made the country a target for those fighters. The Turkish president may well have calculated that killing their leaders now will lessen the danger of getting attacked by them.
Abu Muhammad al-Joulani, the leader of HTS, had led several campaigns against Syrian government forces.
bigger
It was Joulani who had the command over all Jihadis and 'rebels' in Idleb in their fight against the Syrian army.
Haras-al-Din has sworn allegiance to Al-Qaeda leader Aywan al-Zawahiri. Joulani, the leader of HTS/Nusra, claimed that he had ended his relation with al-Qaeda but he never publicly retracted the loyalty oath he had given to al-Zawahiri.
The death of the leaders of these groups will not end the existence of these entities. History shows that leader assassinations tend to bring more competent and more brutal leaders to the fore. But for at least a short while there will be more discussions about the new leaders and directions into which the groups will move than preparations on the front lines. This distraction can be used by the Syrian army to progress in its campaign.
The Syrian army is preparing to liberate Idleb governorate starting from the south with the most likely next target being Maarrat al-Nu'man. There is also a buildup of tanks and troops west of Aleppo city. The general attack axis of both fronts will run along the M5 motorway. In the west a third front will run along the M4 highway with the first main target being the city of Jisr ash-Shhugur. The front there is more difficult because the area is mountainous and held by Turkman and Uyghur fighters who still seem to have Turkish support.
The current unilateral ceasefire, which I presume was only announced to allow for today's hit, will end again soon. It was likely the last one before the real big fight to liberate Idleb governorate begins. As the 'rebels' and Jihadis no longer have access to fresh supplies the speed and the progress of the campaign will likely be impressive.
Update (16:40 UTC): The U.S. claims to have carried out the strike.
The jihadis received two very important messages in as many days, received load and in crystal clear clarity.
The first message was from the Turks: “Borders are closed to jihadis, we don’t want you, we leave you to your fate”.
The second message was equally clear – top leaders (allegedly) of several jihadi groups (allegedly) killed (allegedly), the buildings where they were meating [that was a mistype, decided to leave it in place!] flattened.
Also in this context is to be viewed the sudden (in the “last days of August”) cessation of supplies of ATGM missiles.
My conclusion is this.
1) At least one faction of the US (probably including more than one interest-party, but almost certainly including CENTCOM since they allegedly carried out the strike) has finally seen enough of the writing on the wall to agree to a change of policy direction. That doesn’t necessarily mean final acceptance of Syria’s destiny (yet), but it certainly includes a recognition that the US’s recent military actions in the region (maybe confined to Syria but probably the region as a whole) are having results contrary to US strategic interests. This faction would have to include sections of the US military who have been critical of some of the developments, so it may or may not reflect increased recognition for that faction; is there any connection with top level manpower changes in the Ministry of War and the Pentagon? – no idea, haven’t been following it at all. It is also possible that Ministry of War/Pentagon are tooth and nail against it.
2) This is probably part of a deal between Russia, Turkey and US. Putin is one who is not averse to pragmatic compromises, as long as the whole is greater than the sum of the parts. It might be many of us on MoA would be unhappy with some of those compromises, but probably we will never know what was in the deal.
3) Part of the deal involved the temporary ceasefire, so that people would not by default assume Russia carried out the strikes. This is important on several counts, particularly: unambiguous message to the jihadis, and clear signal that “the US is really doing something positive against terrorism” (allegedly).
4) I would say most probably Trump was one of the interest-parties in the faction in (1). It is good for his electioneering. All the more so if it directly leads to an acceleration of the roll-up in Idleb. If so, Trump would have by-passed Pompeo, Bolton, his “ME Envoy”, the CIA, and those sections of the military pig-headed enough to want to continue with the old policy. Maybe it will make it politically easier for Trump to carry out some of his other (alleged) wishes involving reductions of troops in the region, by creating de-facto changes on the ground.
5) There is no reason to believe that part of the deal involves the pull-out of the US from Syria and other countries in the region; but that could well be a virtually inevitable consequence, and this must have played a role in CENTCOM’s acceptance of the deal. Memories of Vietnam anybody?
Some additional notes:
Assuming the meeting really involved some top-level jihadi leaders (indeed, we have to take for granted there really was a meeting at all!), the meeting would have had to discuss (a) sudden loss of Khan Shaykhoun including the breach of strong defences south of Khan Shaykhoun that they were heavily relying on; (b) sudden loss of resupply of ATGM missiles; (c) failure of Turkey to resupply during the assault on Khan Shaykhoun, closure of Turkey’s borders to jihadis, refusal of Turkey to allow jihadi “refugees” into Turkey, even shooting a couple of jihadis at the border; (d) what to do about all these matters and how best to proceed, possibly including putting aside some greavancies between groups and possible new alliances.
There can be no question that if the meeting was real, the strike will have left the jihadis in disarray – most probably critically so – and there may be serious conflicts between groups. Some of their energies after this will be taken up with killing each other instead of fighting off the roll-up. The groups will be less coordinated with each other, and less able to upt up effective resistance. Some groups may decide to negotiate with the Russians, and may even change sides.
What is certain is that the main dual message was aimed at and delivered to the rank and file, and can have only one meaning: “your time is up, all your sponsors have deserted you, you have no hope, shrivel up and die”. The effect on the jihadis will be highly demoralising. Some jihadis – some of the most extremist – as a result, will be even more determined to fight to the death (but conversely, at least one can be sure that they will eventually be neutralised); others will continue fighting but ineffectively; others will want to negotiate.
It will probably have a dramatic effect on the course of the Idleb campaign.
Note that Russia says they cleared the airspace. It may be that they permitted the US to fly out the key leaders allegedly in the meeting by helicopter, and transport them to Afghanistan or somewhere else. That is definitely not something Putin wants (he knows for certain they will cause problems for Russia’s underbelly from Afghanistan), but maybe it is a pragmatic compromise if the US guarantee not to further obstruct the roll-up in Idleb. The US might have been able to evacuate certain US military advisors at the same time, who were at risk of being captured by the Russians and Syrians.
It is also possible the US used an opportunity to eliminate leaders with too much uncomfortable information, before they could be captured.
Either way, the most important result of the strike will be (a) disarray, and (b) demoralising effect on the rank and file.
Expect some dramatic developments in the Idleb campaign.
Posted by: BM | Sep 1 2019 8:16 utc | 87
|
