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Syria – Army Cuts Off Khan Shaykhun – Russia Bombs Turkish Reinforcement
This is an update to last weeks post Syria – Frontline Breach Opens Door To A Deep Battle For Idlib.
Today the Syrian army gained fire control over the M5 highway north of Khan Shaykhun.
Map by Peto Lucem – bigger
The jihadists in the soon closed cauldron south of that point are now cut off from road bound resupplies.
For the last few nights reinforcements from north Idleb tried to reach Khan Shaykhun. The Syrian and Russian airforce prevented them (vid) from getting there.
This map shows the situation five days ago with the position of the Turkish observation point within the area.
via ISWnews – bigger
This morning Turkey sent (vid) a 29 truck convoy with five tanks, two infantry fighting vehicles, ammunition and additional personnel toward the observation post in Morek, south of Khan Shaykhun.
Before the convoy passed through Maarat al-Numan, 20 kilometers north of Khan Shaykhun, the Russian airforce bombed its path (vid). The leader of Faylq al-Sham, a 'Syrian rebel' group controlled by the Turkish intelligence service, was escorting the Turkish army convoy in a technical. He was killed. No Turkish soldiers were harmed. The convoy stopped and will have to return to Turkey. The tanks and the ammunition will not reach the jihadis in Khan Shaykhun.
The Turkish defense ministry falsely claimed that three civilians were killed in the bombing. The Syrian government condemned the Turkish invasion.
This now is the right time for the Syrian army to bring in reserves and to open the deep battle for Idleb by quickly moving northwards along the M5 highway.
> Further US sanctions on Russia. Russian gdp growth is very low now, forecasts are about mere 1,2 % per anum, and thus Russia’s share of world GDP is declining.
Posted by: Passer by | Aug 20 2019 13:15 utc
You think “harming Russia” is a good answer to question “how does it boost USA the hegemon?”. Well, let’s suppose it…
Problem then is, Russia does not care that much about nominal GDP and even about PPP GDP. It is “average temperature in hospital”, where some patients are in 41C fever and others in 4C morgue, but on average they all have that healthy 36,6C.
However, even for those sanctions that did hit Russia and EU hard (and those were enacted mostly in 2015), under the “China-Russia double helix” model, economic soft power is Chinese responsibility, so targetting EU and Russia economically was perhaps a mis-aiming, like would be targetting China militarily.
Also, take a single line – “congress obliges Trump to enlist russian officials for sanctions” and do the search in both pro-Clinton Google and in DDG. first page of Google has zero relebvant results. DDG however starts with
Trump Administration Sends Congress List of Possible Russia …
http://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/26/us/politics/trump-russia-sanctions.html
Congress has tied Trump’s hands on Russian sanctions – Vox
http://www.vox.com/2017/7/29/16061878/trump-russian-sanctions-sign
Congress Forces Trump to Sanction Russia – Fash the Nation
fashthenation.com/2018/03/congress-forces-trump-to-sanction-russia/
Trump Finally Imposes Russia Sanctions That Congress Ordered …
http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2018/03/trump-finally-imposes-russia-sanctions-that-congress-ordered-months-ago/
Is 2017 so far ago that we already forgot it?
Trump has no freedom of choice to sanction Russia or not.
It is not his authority to make this choice.
Trump is ordered to sanction and he would do.
If he has any leeway, it is to how specifically sanction, but even that choice is framed into UIS domestic politic fuel, as a vehicle to fry Trump over being “Putin’s shil” and looking “not enough” into evil Russians.
> China postponed for overtaking the US in gdp MER to 2032 from 2024.
Estimations are just that, estimations. Guesses into the future mixed with propaganda.
If you don’t buy Trump’s tweets about “China begging for deal” and Obama’s about “Russian economy in tatters” – why to buy these estimations?
> Indian growth downgraded – which taken together with China means slowing down Asia’s rise.
Pro-American Modi in power of India was a definite win for USA. But i do not think Trump did it in 2016. Such events are grown for years and years of undercover works.
Same for the Brazil fiasco, which i perceive was much heavier blow upon BRICS than Modi. But Brazilian coup was in preparation yet before Trump’s oath. May 2016 was the FINAL act, prepared months before: nytimes.com/interactive/2016/world/americas/brazil-dilma-rousseff-impeachment.html
> Iran in recession – long term growth is low – it means that Iran’s share of the world economy is now declining. This will lower iranian influence in the long term.
Long term? like Trump is planning for long term? Would he, like Putin, still be American president in 2016+18=2034 ?
Well, maybe. However does it boost much US the hegemon position today?
Also notice how this pushes Iran back to Russian bucket. Before JCPOA Iran was flirting with “Lesser Satan” a lot, promising to buy russian airliners, promising to barter Iranian goods (oil and others) for Russian goods, thus de facto letting Russia be quasi-monopolistic seller of Iranian goods on world market for any margin Russia would manage to extract. All those hints and kinda-plans were squashed instantly after JCPOA. Iran rushed ot trade with EU directly, to buy Boeing and Airbis jets…. But was shot into the leg before it started. I think China would also find their way to be “big helping brother” to Iraninan economy, on some conditions of course.
> Venezueala in deep recession
True, and this is again fitting the isolationist bill, to a degree. If Team Trump ready to exclude USA from global trade – it would have to secure oil supply. Enslaving a nearby oil-containing nation would do.
Additionally, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States–Venezuela_relations lists 2014 as start of economic sanctions against Venezuela. So, Trump has inherited “office of Venezuelan affairs” from Cinton/Obama. And… he brought it to light and headlines by making that idiotic wannabe-coup. The sh*t that previously USA did silently pretending whitegloved “shining beacon”, Trump exposed.
Did it really made USA position better in 2018 than it was in 2014? I doubt. To me it seemes more like T.T. accelerated things and “threw it all on the table” making Venezuela “hit the rock bottom”. Now Venezuela can adjust to the new brave world, while USA would probably not be in position to tighten its grip – it already burned all the reserves and in so clumsy way, that Bolton and Co became a laughing stock. If anything, it exposed that while most gov’t there would be paying lip service to USA, none would go with something material. France invaded with USA Libya, Germany invaded with USA Serbia, but none enlisted to invade Venezuela with USA.
> In Latin America most governments are now US puppet governments.
Brazil was indeed a huge blow into the BRICS dream. But i see it more of that indirect, covert “soft power” that USA secret services prepared and rushed to implement before Trump.
> Weakened the EU, via support for Brexit and other ways – it means that the euro will not be a viable alternative for replacing the dollar
Basically turning EU elites against USA and splitting “Western Hegemony” into rivaling factions.
From multipolar view circa 2010, would it be much difference for, say, Russia or China or Iran, whether USD or EUR would be “reserve currency”? After Alexander of Macedonia died his empire split to pieces, and some of those pieces soon started warring. Did this enhance Greek hegemony or reduced it? When COMECOM and Warsaw Pact disbanded did it enhanced Soviet hegemony over Eastern Europe or reduced it? But it slashed exports of those lands, Bulgaria is not more agriculture super-power it used to be, “Ikarus” bus is still often meet in Moscow street but in the “remnants of old times still able to run” kind, Poland is no more producing ocean-grade ships. So, was it enhancing USSR share of world economy then?
Also, didn’t he kind of forced EU elites into Chinese OBOR camp? That said, similarly Russia was forced towards China in 2013-2014 by Western lunacy, so i would not say it was Trump’s novelty to push EU eastwards.
EU was in with US in looting Libya, EU was in with US in looting Serbia, now US calls for EU to join in “patrolling” Persian Gulf and response is… like the one about invading Venezuela. Hegemon became stronger?
> Trade wars seem to be hitting EU’s export dependent economy pretty hard.
And i wish to see more of those wars not less. Won’t you?
EU is the power, that took part in creating narco-haven in Kosovo, murdering children of Iraq, building sex slaves markets in Libya, destroying what was left of democracy in Ukraine. EU power is diminishing? Let it crash and burn if you ask me.
> Turkey has serious economic problems – partly due to the US again – which again means slowing down multipolarity
Wasn’t in 2012 Turkey part of Hegemon entourage neck-deep in bloody ISIS affair?
Wasn’t Turkey for decades be knockign into closed EU membership doors?
Wasn’t Turkey send their poeple into Germany to intertwine and cross-influence?
Turkey as part of multipolarity? Maybe. But exactly because it was prohibited from what they see their place in global western world. However i am not very sure that would West offer “larger piece” to Turkey in their crippling hegemony, turkey would not turn back yet again. Goog thing, it would be hard to do as few believe western promises today, but again, didn’t Trump (but other western politicians too, and including many pre-Trump) invested into making West glaringly “not agreement-capable” in but everyone’s view?
Trump could smash Turkey and instate Kudistan.
Trump could smash Kurds and make amends with Erdo.
Instead Trump is breaking pots with both. Neither Kurds not Turks no trust “the shining beacon”.
> Overall situation – the US share in the world economy is declining at slower rates than before
Won’t this mean Trump’s economic policy is if limited success?
> the retarding of growth of everyone else, which means defacto slowing down multipolarity and the replacement of the US dollar
That may be what some faction of Team Trump counting upon. But i have reservations.
Uni-polarity is not about economic growth. It is about trading on One True Market, hegemon’s one.
And when everything goes down, another factors start to weigh in. Like elasticity of demand and replacement with cheaper substitutes. Like, if i need a tooling for my house, i would perhaps want to purchase Japanese Makita or German Bosh. Those are famous brands with decades of well earned reputation. But if i only can salivate on them, then perhaps i can go with some cheaper Chinese knock-off? Or perhaps to blow the dust from my grandpa’s old tool and purchase nothing at all? If i can buy genuine American Levi’s it is a fad, but if i can, then perhaps i will make it in Turkey-made or China-made or Philipinnes-made or even Syria-made jeans? You know, their cut is not that fitting as European or American, but perhaps we can deal with it for the price? If in Russia i can no more buy Czech or German beer as before 2014, then perhaps i can sooth myself with apple cidre from semi-eastern Altai region of Russia? And then, will my gov’t still had the same need for USD for those adjusted trade transactions, as it used to?
Posted by: Arioch | Aug 20 2019 14:22 utc | 81
Posted by: Arioch | Aug 20 2019 14:22 utc | 83
>Problem then is, Russia does not care that much about nominal GDP and even about PPP GDP
GDP does matter, lowering the GDP of certain country weakens the country. Other factors matter too, such as demographics or landmass and natural resources.
>targetting EU and Russia economically was perhaps a mis-aiming
I would not call it misaiming, Europe has one of the largest economies in the world and the Euro is the second most important currency in the World. As long as Russia and the EU attack each other – it is a win for the US.
>Also, take a single line – “congress obliges Trump to enlist russian officials for sanctions”
It is not simply Congress, the Trump Admin is hawkish on Russia by itself. Pompeo and Bolton are anti-russian and were instrumental in the US leaving the INF. The pressure against Nord Sream is greater than during the Obama Admin, Second Fleet was activated for containing Russia, a russian consulate was captured in pretty brutal manner, etc. Recently, another set of sanctions were enacted by the Trump Admin.
>Estimations are just that, estimations. Guesses into the future mixed with propaganda.
I’m not dismissive of growth estimates and forecasts, this is the job of various companies, organisations and universities. Overall things could be predicted roughly, for example via demographics, median age of population, labour force growth, total factor productivity. The OECD for example is an international organisation working on such forecasts. They can get the rough shapes of growth patterns right – for example it is pretty clear that India or China would be growing faster than, let say, Germany or the US. And this is what their forecasts show. So these are not guestimates.
>Pro-American Modi in power of India was a definite win for USA. But i do not think Trump did it in 2016. Such events are grown for years and years of undercover works.
This is not what i had in mind. While this is true, you did not take into account the prefidy of the US Government, which is working to retard indian economic growth via tarrifs and by trying to remove the WTO perks for developing countries. Even when Modi is frendly to the US, this is still not enough, because the growth of Asia, including India, threatens the dollar.
>Well, maybe. However does it boost much US the hegemon position today?
Iranian economy was booming after the JCPOA was signed. If the Plan remained, Iran would be stronger than today. The whole point is to retard iranian economic growth, which would be far stronger without the sanctions.
>Also notice how this pushes Iran back to Russian bucket
Even back in 2015, Iran did not stop being an israeli adversary, which means that the US would have targeted it one way or another. Plus the US was not in position to gain much from the iranian market, due to their still strained relations caused by the israeli lobby in the US, which caused all types of sabotage in the Iran – US trade relations, the process of removal of sanctions, etc. A big beneficiary from the JCPOA was the EU, and the main losses from the sactions (outside from Iran) were for the EU again. Retarding the EU economy via blocking its trade with Iran (or Russia) is a benefit for the US.
>Venezueala in deep recession. True, and this is again fitting the isolationist bill, to a degree.True, and this is again fitting the isolationist bill, to a degree.
This isn’t about isolationism, but about retarding the economy of the rest of the world, and especially of still uncontrolled countries. The point is to preserve the share of relative power the US has, or to slow down its decline as much as possible.
>Now Venezuela can adjust to the new brave world
The point is that Venezuela would be growing far faster without sanctions, thus the US is weakening the independent multipolar world and slowing down its rise.
>Did it really made USA position better in 2018 than it was in 2014?
Obviously. Venezuela today, vis a vis the US, is weaker in relative power terms than in 2014. For the US its better to wreck Venezuela’s economy than to allow it to flourish and expand its influence.
>Basically turning EU elites against USA and splitting “Western Hegemony” into rivaling factions.
They are not turning them against the US, that’s the point. Europe is too much of a puppet of the US. The US causes various conficts on Europe’s perifery in order to turn it against Russia and make it dependent on itself. Divide and Rule.
>would it be much difference for, say, Russia or China or Iran, whether USD or EUR
Yes, Europe is less hawkish than the US overall. If it was up to Europe JCPOA will still be here and there would be no trade wars with China.
>Also, didn’t he kind of forced EU elites into Chinese OBOR camp
Its more about economic weakness. Those in Europe with poor economy signed up for BRI – such as eastern Europe and Italy. The big 3 – Germany, France and the UK refuse to join BRI (which is different than AIIB) as of now. I do not see greater western european – China cooperation today than before 5 years. The EU commission declared China a european rival.
>EU was in with US in looting Libya, EU was in with US in looting Serbia, now US calls for EU to join in “patrolling” Persian Gulf and response is… like the one about invading Venezuela. Hegemon became stronger?
The iranian issue has always been a red card for Europe as it fears a really big war in the Gulf. There is nothing new in that. If you are going to talk about “now”, the EU did join the US against Syria, its sanctions against Syria still remain, and it does support removing Maduro from power. It did put sanctions against Venezuela, although not at the same level as the US. It is no friend of the Maduro Government.
>And i wish to see more of those wars not less. Won’t you?
Currently the result of them is weakeing multipolarity by retarding growth in most of the world. They have negative impact on the global economy.
>EU is the power, that took part in creating narco-haven in Kosovo, murdering children of Iraq, building sex slaves markets in Libya, destroying what was left of democracy in Ukraine. EU power is diminishing? Let it crash and burn if you ask me.
Yes, but the US does not want to crush and burn the EU, it simply wants to make it weak and dependent on itself. A colony.
>Wasn’t in 2012 Turkey part of Hegemon entourage neck-deep in bloody ISIS affair?
The more players around, the better. Strong Turkey will be more independent from the US, the US understand that, this is why it want weak Turkey
>Trump could smash Turkey and instate Kudistan.
Trump can not directly smash Turkey, the moment an attempt like this is made is the moment Turkey will invite Russia and China into the country. Rather, a hybrid war is being waged on Turkey, with the aim of weakening Erdogan and replacing him with a reliable puppet.
> Overall situation – the US share in the world economy is declining at slower rates than before Won’t this mean Trump’s economic policy is if limited success?
No. There is nothing better than this that could be done to stop the US relative decline, it depends on the cards one has to play. Economic convergence process and technological diffusion, driven by globalisation, means that it is impossible the fully stop the rise of the developing world. But if the US did not react like it reacted, and just stayed on its hands, i think its power would have been gone in 2 – 3 years.
>Uni-polarity is not about economic growth.
It is also about the economy and growth. You can’t have unipolarity if you don’t have the largest economic, as well as military power. One needs to have the largest economy to rule the world (among other things), or they will fail. You can’t have it without the dollar dominance as well.
Posted by: Passer by | Aug 20 2019 16:54 utc | 96
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