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Iran Decided To Put Maximum Pressure On Trump – Here Is How It Will Do It
Thirteen month ago the United States launched a total economic war against Iran. It demands its capitulation. Now Iran decided to respond in kind. It will wage a maximum pressure campaign on U.S. economic interests until the Trump administration concedes its defeat. Shipping in the Middle East will soon become very hazardous. Oil prices will go through the roof. Trump will be trapped between two choices neither of which he will like.
In early May 2018 U.S. President Trump broke the nuclear deal with Iran and sanctioned all trade with that country. Iran reacted cautiously. It hoped that the other signatories of the nuclear deal would stick to their promises and continue to trade with it. The year since proved that such expectations were wrong.
Under threat of U.S. sanctions the European partners stopped buying Iranian oil and also ended their exports to it. The new financial instrument that was supposed to allow payments between European countries and Iran has still not been implemented. It is also a weak construct and will have too little capacity to make significant trade possible. Russia and China each have their own problems with the United States. They do not support trade with Iran when it endangers their other interests.
Meanwhile the Trump administration increased the pressure on Iran. It removed waivers it had given to some countries to buy Iranian oil. It designated a part of the Iranian armed forces, the Revolutionary Guard Corp (ICRG), as a terrorist entity. On Friday it sanctioned Iran's biggest producer of petrochemical products because that company is alleged to have relations with the ICRG.
The strategic patience Iran demonstrated throughout the year since Trump killed the deal brought no result. Trump will stay in power, probably for another five and a half years, while Iran's economic situation continuous to get worse. The situation requires a strategic reorientation and the adoption of a new plan to counter U.S. pressure.
On the strategic side a long term reorientation in four different fields will counter the effects the economic war on Iran. Foreign imports to Iran will be reduced to a minimum level by increasing production at home. Iran will ally with no one, not even China and Russia, as it recognizes that relying on partners has no value when those partners have their own higher interests. The third step is to loosen interior pressure on the 'reformist' who argued for a more 'western' orientation. Trump, and the cowardice of the Europeans, have proven that their arguments are false. The last measure is to reorientate exports from global oil trade to other products, probably derived from oil, and to neighboring countries.
All four steps will take some time. They are at large a reorientation from a globalization strategy to a more isolationist national one. Some first steps of this new plan are already visible. A common bank will be set up by Syria, Iraq and Iran to facilitate trade between those countries.
The economic reorientation is not sufficient. To directly counter Trump's maximum pressure campaign requires a tactical reorientation.
Trump continues to call for negotiations with Iran but he can accept nothing but a total capitulation. Trump also proved that the U.S. does not stick to the agreements it makes. There is therefore no hope for Iran to achieve anything through negotiations. There is only one way to counter Trump's maximum pressure campaign and that is by putting maximum pressure on him.
Neither Washington, nor the anti-Iranian countries in the Middle East, nor the other nuclear deal signers have so far paid a price for their hostile acts against Iran. That will now change.
Current loaded tanker traffic in the Middle East
via Tanker Trackers – bigger
Iran will move against the interests of the U.S., Israel, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. It will do so in deniable form to give the U.S. and others no opening for taking military actions against it. Iran has friends in various countries in the Middle East who will support it with their own capabilities. The campaign Iran now launches will also create severe damage for other countries.
In mid 2018, after Trump began to sanction Iran's oil exports, its leaders explained how it would counter the move:
‘If Iran can't export oil no-one in Middle East will,’ Tehran warns.
Last December Iran's President Rouhani repeated that position:
“If one day they want to prevent the export of Iran’s oil, then no oil will be exported from the Persian Gulf,” [Rouhani] said.
In mid May 2019, one year after Trump destroyed the nuclear deal, a demonstration of capabilities damaged four tankers which anchored near Fujairah in the UAE. There was no evidence to blame the attack on Iran.
The incident was a warning. But the U.S. ignored it and increased the sanction pressure on Iran.
Yesterday two tankers with petrochemical products were attacked while crossing the Gulf of Oman. Coming only a few days after Trump sanctioned Iran's petrochemical exports points to Iran's involvement. But again no evidence was left in place to blame the incident on Iran.
The U.S. published a grainy black and white video which it says shows an Iranian Search and Rescue crew removing an unexploded limpet mine from one of the tankers. No mine in visible in the video. The Iranian crew seems to inspect the damage on the tanker.
The U.S. itself admits that the video was taken several hours after the incident. The U.S. also says that one of its ships was nearby. Why did it take no steps to remove the claimed mine itself?
Meanwhile the owner of the Kokuka Courageous, one of the stricken ships, said that the damage to its ship was not caused by mines but by drones:
Two “flying objects” damaged a Japanese tanker owned by Kokuka Sangyo Co in an attack on Thursday in the Gulf of Oman, but there was no damage to the cargo of methanol, the company president said on Friday.
…
“The crew told us something came flying at the ship, and they found a hole,” Katada said. “Then some crew witnessed the second shot.”
Katada also rejected speculation that the tanker, which sailed under the flag of Panama, was attacked because it was a Japanese owned vessel:
“Unless very carefully examined, it would be hard to tell the tanker was operated or owned by Japanese,” he said.
Despite the obvious lack of knowledge of who or what caused the incident the U.S. immediately blamed Iran:
Secretary Pompeo @SecPompeo – 18:27 UTC – 13 Jun 2019
It is the assessment of the U.S. government that Iran is responsible for today's attacks in the Gulf of Oman. These attacks are a threat to international peace and security, a blatant assault on the freedom of navigation, and an unacceptable escalation of tension by Iran.
Iran pushed back:
Javad Zarif @JZarif – 12:11 UTC – 14 Jun 2019
That the US immediately jumped to make allegations against Iran—w/o a shred of factual or circumstantial evidence—only makes it abundantly clear that the #B_Team is moving to a #PlanB: Sabotage diplomacy—including by @AbeShinzo—and cover up its #EconomicTerrorism against Iran.
I warned of exactly this scenario a few months ago, not because I'm clairvoyant, but because I recognize where the #B_Team is coming from.
The "B-team" includes Trump's National Security Advisor John Bolton, Israel's Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahoo, Mohammad bin Salman of Saudi Arabia and Mohammed bin Zayed of the UAE.
To say that the attacks were provocations by the U.S. or its Middle East allies is made easier by their evident ruthlessness. Any accusations by the Trump administration of Iranian culpability will be easily dismissed because everyone knows that Trump and his crew are notorious liars.
This cat and mouse game will now continue and steadily gain pace. More tankers will get damaged or even sunk. Saudi refineries will start to explode. UAE harbors will experience difficulties. Iran will plausibly deny that it is involved in any of this. The U.S. will continue to blame Iran but will have no evidence to prove it.
Insurance for Middle East cargo will become very expensive. Consumer prices for oil products will increase and increase again. The collateral damage will be immense.
All this will gradually put more pressure on Trump. The U.S. will want to negotiate with Iran, but that will be rejected unless Trump rejoins the nuclear deal and lifts all his sanctions. He can not do that without losing face and his allies. By mid 2020 the maximum pressure campaign will reach its zenith. Oil prices will explode and the U.S. will fall into a recession. The world economy will tank and everyone will know who caused the underlying issue. Trump's reelection will come into doubt.
There will also be pressure on Trump to take military action against Iran. But he knows that a war would be equally disastrous for his re-election chances, and for the United States. A war against Iran would put the whole Middle East in flames.
The maximum pressure Trump hoped to wage against Iran will turn into maximum pressure on him and his allies. He will be trapped and there will be no way out.
@ psychohistorian | Jun 14, 2019 9:04:10 PM | 107
“The war we are in is about global private finance led society or the China/Russia led alternative where the state controls finance for the public good. You can write all you want to obfuscate the core issue at stake but forces bigger than you are going to show you the casino folks are holding a broken flush.”
Psycho, you are a false prophet and a hypocrite. You pollute threads here regularly with your anti-finance rhetoric all the while participating in the very system you rail against. You sold your house recently and put the money into an etf? You have credit cards, a mortgage, a house note? Everytime you are caught out, you blame it on your ADD, medical side effects or prior brain injury. You probably vote too. You have no skin in the game. Me, no loans, credit cards, mortgage or any vehicle which allows the system to profit from me, except property taxes. Why don’t you go study up on Tacoma power so the next time you use it as an example you can give some relevant example of how the system you envision actually would operate.
Please feel free to disregard anything I choose to comment on, as you have zero credibility other than as a vuvuzela, (i.e. a loud annoying noise).
Thank you
@ james | Jun 14, 2019 9:36:49 PM | 112
” now, being a realist here, what are the chances that the 1% who control most of the money and derivative markets would want to position themselves to take advantage of something like this? really, the only people who get hurt are the little people…”
Hey James,
The 1% are going to crash the system. These derivatives only serve as an indicator that they are not ready to bring it all down just yet, or we would have attacked Iran already. Of course the little people are the ones who are going to be hurt because they are the ones who have allowed this system to persist. Sheep get shorn, surprised? There is too much money left in pension funds for the bankers to ignore, and they are going to come for all of it this time. I see the rich folks fighting among themselves for the last few crumbs americans have managed to accumulate, or think they have in these last few months/years before the dollar dies. This time when they bring it down, it will be the end of the USA capitalist system as we know it. There is absolutely nothing that will be done to prevent this. Americans will be told, (once again) “no one could have foreseen…) People have choices and there are consequences.
The reason the system is running roughshod over americans is because of individual value systems. No one is forcing people to take out loans, no more than anyone is forcing people to smoke crack cocaine.
For instance, although I live a debt free existence, I know that all it takes is one policeman to come knocking on my door to put everything I am at risk. No fear. Huey Newton was quite accurate in his statement that “The first lesson a revolutionary must learn is that he is a doomed man.” Kennedy, McVeigh, Malcolm, Aristotle, Martin, Jesus…. all killed. The list goes on and there are many more who remain nameless, their struggle affecting but a few. If you have one life, how would you choose to live it? I choose to follow my conscience and do what I believe is right and will forcefully resist anyone who attempts to dictate otherwise.
Only a fool would let a government with the record of the US dictate their actions. Its obvious they cannot manage their own affairs and I’ll be damned if I let them manage mine. Yet they keep getting re-elected… That is the problem with a democracy, and although the us is supposedly a democratic republic, the federal government has expanded its powers beyond what it was initially allowed and there are no signs of any abatement on their part of engineering a society that continues to benefit the few with nothing but words of concern for the disadvantaged.
If Americans wanted to change this system, they would cease participation. Don’t feed the beast. I believe if you vote, you consent. Imagine an american presidential election with less than 10% participation… The government would have zero credibility. Right now approximately 1/3 of eligible voters do not vote, (although I am certain it is not for the same reason) there are those of like mind. Keeping in mind at all times, that my freedom is not everyone’s freedom and while I might disagree with much that I see, I would in no way interfere with someone who continues to vote, take out loans, give loans, occupy, antifa, republican, democrat, because they are free to design their prisons as I have mine.
Another peeve I have is non-americans always berating americans for being the sheep that they are. It would take me less than 30 minutes to both start and finish my revolution. End result would of course be one dead man. This would not serve anyone. What is needed for americans to coalesce is a catalyst, because there are many who are ready to rock and roll, but recognize their limitations. If someone has a plan one man could pull off and bring this system to its knees, I’d be glad to hear it. In the meantime, I will continue to not feed the beast because that is the only course of action my intellect is capable of formulating that has an effect as minimal as it is.
There is much I don’t put online, because attracting attention hastens my demise and it is not necessary. Before our government capitulates, there will be blood, lots of blood, and any thought otherwise are fantasy.
Americans will never defeat their ‘deep state’, because by definition they have made the problem too big to handle. Anytime, I see the phrase, I read ‘surrender’. The finanial system must be destroyed. The MIC needs to be reined in. The federal bureaucracy needs to be streamlined. The congress needs to be executed. The corporate capture must end. There is no deep state, there are a bunch of predators of diffferent persuasion in need of head removal. Talk about tilting at windmills. The owner of a business should not make a penny more than the janitor. There will be blood.
I’m going to stop now, because I talk too much sometimes and I’m really feeling this is one of those times. I was hoping b put up an open thread before I finished typing this, cuz he might not let this slip through….
b4real
Posted by: b4real | Jun 15 2019 16:16 utc | 173
steven t johnson | Jun 14, 2019 8:46:56 PM | 105
steven t johnson | Jun 15, 2019 8:48:28 AM | 155
Finally a sober commenter. Yup, i’m fed up with the cringe worthy “USA is rapidly collapsing” children talk.
We can have a good discussion with you. I’m estimating a slow US decline and looots of geopolitical fighting in the coming 15 years. Loss of dollar world reserve currency status after 2040, not tomorrow.
Now, about your comment, things are not too bad though. Yes, the US is fighting hard, but also yes, the US is a declining country. This is why they are so triggered btw.
“As for “stymied?” In Syria, the national secular government does not control Idlib or Afrin or the northeast of the country.”
Correct. Syria is in far worse position than before 2011. And the European sanctions against the country are continuing, it is not only a US blockade. But i do think that Syria will get Idlib sooner or later.
“Venezuela’s people are suffering under a blockade.”
Yes. And coup attempts will continue into the future. None of this will stop, the point is to surround and strangle the country like Anaconda. Maybe the country will break, maybe it won’t, can’t say for sure.
“Afghanistan is still occupied.”
The US lost the war there. Taliban is on the offensive. The US is asking for peace with the taliban. In the long term, their presence there in unsustainable, considering the need to focus on battling Russia and China. The afghan government does not have the money to sustain its own security forces. Its all paid by the US. It will collapse the moment the US is no longer there. In my estimate, aroung 2025.
“Russia is tied down in Syria”
I would not call it tied down, they do not lose much money or people these days. It is quite cheap presence.
“at a standstill with fascists in eastern Ukraine”
Ukraine is on downward trajectory, terrible demographics plus gas transit bypassing the country soon. This country is going down. It does not look good to me.
“NATO has moved hundreds of miles to the east and the Baltic statelets and Poland are raving about war with Russia.”
Europe does not have the money to sustain war mongering against Russia. Europe is declining entity, and many countries are heavily indebted, with bad demographics. Plus the US will have to cut their military budget due to debt issues too, not to mention to focus on rising China more and more. There is no real military danger in Europe against Russia, it is mostly posturing, but there is no real capability, especially in future scenarios, considering the ongoing decline of Europe and the US.
“And its economy is being pressured by low oil prices”
Well, now oil prces will increase due to the tensions with Iran.
“with most of the country heading back to Yeltsin days”
In what way it is (Russia) heading back to Yeltsin days?
“China is under trade war and Xi is slowing growth as much as he can”
The US is under trade war too and they also suffer losses, although less than China. Still, China is growing faster than the US and will continue to do so in the future. The chinese economy IMO will dominate the US by 2040s.
“and Hong Kong is gearing up another rebellion.”
I think the chinese can handle that.
“Iran is isolated and being blockaded.”
Yes, but they proved that they can survivie under blockade. I do not think that the blockade can be sustained after 2030, based on US debt levels and decline in its share of world GDP.
“North Korea is under blockade.”
Yes, but they proved that they can survivie under blockade too. Time is working for them as the US is declining.
“Stymied is when the US starts withdrawing troops, closing foreign bases, can’t make other countries enforce bloackade, stops moving eastward in Europe, stops color revolutions. The only way you can say the US is “stymied” is to insist the only meaning of victory is foreigners literally crawling on their bellies when they see an American president. ”
Agree with that, very good observation, too many childish comments of the type “the US is rapidly collapsing”, “imminent US collapse”, etc. It is boring really.
Posted by: Passer by | Jun 15 2019 17:00 utc | 179
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