Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
May 23, 2019
Why Trump’s Huawei Ban Is Unlikely To Persist

The Washington Post World page summarizes a piece about consequences of Trump's ban on the Chinese telecom equipment manufacturer Huawei:

A key chip designer and British telecom companies suspended some dealings with the Chinese tech giant over security concerns.

However, nothing in the actual piece talks about security concerns. (I point this out because I perceive a trend towards such misleading summaries and headlines which contradict what the actual reporting says.)

The British processor company ARM, which licenses its design to Huawei, cites U.S. export controls as the reason to stop cooperation with Huawei:

The conflict is putting companies and governments around the world in a tough spot, forcing them to choose between alienating the United States or China.

Arm Holdings issued its statement after the BBC reported the firm had told staff to suspend dealings with Huawei.

An Arm spokesman said some of the company’s intellectual property is designed in the United States and is therefore “subject to U.S. export controls.”

Additionally two British telecom providers quote U.S. restrictions as reason for no longer buying Huawei smartphones:

BT Group’s EE division, which is preparing to launch 5G service in six British cities later this month, said Wednesday it would no longer offer a new Huawei smartphone as part of that service. Vodafone also said it would drop a Huawei smartphone from its lineup. Both companies appeared to tie that decision to Google‘s move to withhold licenses for its Android operating software from future Huawei phones.

These companies do not have security concerns over Huawei. But the casual reader, who does not dive down into the actual piece, is left with a false impression that such concerns are valid and shared.

That the Trump administration says it has security reasons for its Huawei ban does not mean that the claim is true. Huawei equipment is as good or bad as any other telecommunication equipment, be it from Cisco or Apple. The National Security Agency and other secret services will try to infiltrate all types of such equipment.

After the sudden ban on U.S. entities to export to Huawei, chipmakers like Qualcomm temporarily stopped their relations with Huawei. Google said that it would no longer allow access to the Google Play store for new Huawei smartphones. That will diminish their utility for many users.

The public reaction in China to this move was quite negative. There were many calls for counter boycotts of Apple's i-phones on social media and a general anti-American sentiment.

The founder and CEO of Huawei, Ren Zhengfei, tried to counter that. He gave a two hour interview (vid, 3 min excerpt with subtitles) directed at the Chinese public. Ren sounds very conciliatory and relaxed. The Global Times and the South China Morning Post only have short excerpts of what he said. They empathize that Huawei is well prepared and can master the challenge:

Ren said that Huawei will not easily give up on US chips but has a backup. The company is able to make American-quality semiconductors but does not mean it will not buy them, he said.

Huawei is nevertheless “very grateful” to American companies, who have contributed a lot to Huawei. Many of Huawei’s consultants are from American companies such as IBM, Ren said.

Asked how long the crisis will last for Huawei, Ren said the question should be directed at Trump instead.

But Ren said much more than that. Yiqin Fu, a PhD candidate at Stanford University, translated other parts of the interview which are more interesting then the English media reports:

Yiqin Fu @yiqinfu – 11:43 utc- 22 May 2019

Remarkable that Huawei's CEO never appealed to patriotism in his two-hour interview with the Chinese press yesterday. Instead, he said 1) nationalism is bad for the country; 2) China's future hinges on reform and opening up, and 3) China should honor its promises at the WTO.

Re innovation, Huawei's CEO said that China wouldn't be able to innovate given the state of its education. "China is used to throwing money at things. This strategy works for roads and bridges but won't work for chips. How much scholarship is there in our doctoral theses?"

Huawei CEO: China should incentivize foreign talent to migrate — Israel and the U.S. became innovation hubs because they were able to attract migrants from the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. China will waste lots of time trying to innovate with closed doors.

Ren's tone stands in stark contrast to that of state media and official responses from Chinese ministries re Huawei. He even explicitly said, "Huawei products are only commodities. The only basis for using them is if you like them. Politics has nothing to do with it."

Also interesting that Chinese and English-language media focused on entirely different things when reporting the two-hour interview. Chinese intellectuals mostly seized on Ren's comment re innovation and nationalism, while the English-language press ran with headlines like these: Huawei CEO says U.S. ‘underestimates’ the company’s strength

U.S. media often portrait China as tight dictatorship where no one can speak his mind. But these public statements by Ren are nearly all in contradiction to China's current official policies.

In an earlier piece on Trump's trade war with China we pointed out that the U.S. can not win this game because Trump's policy lacks international support:

Few other countries will join Trump's anti-China campaign. It will further isolate the United States. That is quite an achievement for the MAGA man.

A new Bloomberg opinion piece agrees with that view:

Any effort to exert economic pressure on China, or to pursue selective de-integration with Beijing, would be most effective if coupled with a concerted effort to deepen integration with America’s democratic allies. Many of them also have growing concerns about Chinese economic coercion. Yet by launching trade skirmishes not just with China but with allies in Europe and the Asia-Pacific, the Trump administration has created discord where unity is urgently needed. And by reportedly failing to coordinate this ban with close allies beforehand, the administration risks heightening widespread European anger about American unilateralism under Trump.

There is also the question of whether Trump will stick with his current hard line. That question is the also the most important for the Europeans. Why should they break with China when Trump is likely to reverse his decision? He says he still wants to make a deal.

The consequence of the the 737 MAX accidents give China a tool to exert pressure of its own. The credibility of the U.S. regulator FAA is damaged as it was the last one to ground the planes. It is China that will decide when those planes are allowed back into its air. What if it does not do that. What if it buys less planes:

No other country has greater demand for aircraft: In the 20 years through 2037, Boeing estimates Chinese purchases at 7,690 new planes worth $1.2 trillion.

Airbus will be happy to sell all those planes. Unless of course Trump makes a deal and lets Huawei off the hook.

That will be -for now- most likely be the end of the story.

Comments

@98 & 99 Chinese American
Thank you for the expanded information, this is most welcome. My sense is that official China enjoys a very broad mind that can encompass the many viewpoints of its people, all in real time. The structure of the system both makes this necessary and makes this possible.
Here at MoA, we deal with fresh information and between us all in these threads try to parse it in a short time. As you must know, b does an amazing job of parsing this fresh data and presenting a concrete view. Although his English is superb, I suspect his Mandarin is rusty at best 😉 We are all hampered the same way.
You’re pointing in both your comments to the revolutionary mind of China, and this is important to grasp, I think. That they in their modern view, even while completely enmeshed with global capitalism, perfectly perceive the predatory nature of US adventurist capitalism, and can relate it to the Alstom case, is telling.
Your choice of Comrade Chairman Mao himself for the essential reading on China warms my heart. I have to go away and read this now – and this will take some time 😉 I hope you will comment here again with more information about China. I am quite sure that most people here would prefer to be fascinated with learning about China as she truly is, rather than to carry old and worn-out stereotypes that do nothing more than decay on one’s shoulders as one plods along, burdened.

Posted by: Grieved | May 24 2019 2:45 utc | 101

@86 and 87 karlof1
You are a two-edged sword, my friend, although I would not have it any other way – two more lengthy pieces to read!
Thank you for William Appleman Williams. And by Greg Grandin, no less, the author of that wonderful piece on Venezuela.
I may be gone for a while 😉

Posted by: Grieved | May 24 2019 2:50 utc | 102

Re: Chinese American | May 23, 2019 10:01:47 PM
Ancient religions and philosophers may have limited impact on the current thinking in a nation, and definitely they have selective impact. For example, majority of Americans identify themselves as devout Christians, plus followers of Founding Fathers who wrote their cherished Constitution. It would take a lengthy essay to discuss how selectively these traditions were absorbed.
That said, Chinese have certain common believes that make them in part different, in part more similar than we think. For starters, Chinese are (but of course!) an exceptional nation. The name of the country in Chinese means “Country/empire of the Center”. China is in the middle and the other nations around at various distances. If the Chinese feel slighted or offended, EVEN BY USA, their reaction is quite angry, I was even surprised how angry. However, the Chinese also believe in giving good example to barbarians, and while it has a dose of hypocrisy, it tempers xenophobia. Where Confucian and Communist traditions mesh is the attitude to the government. There is an expectation that the government should be competent, just, and attentive to the needs of the people but democracy as Westerners understand it is a rather low priority.
From my readings, Chinese rulers have rather serious attitude to the Confucian expectations, even if they have their biases, myopias and a touch of corruption. And thus they actually have a strategy. As describe by b and some commenters, they were well aware that a “trade clash” with the West in general and USA in particular is unevoidable, but it was worthwhile to delay it: the clash may curtail access to Western science, technology product and licenses, but the longer the Chinese expanded industry, domestic scientific and engineering base etc. the easier it will be to substitute for stuff like imported microchips, microchip fabrication hardware, and microchip design (just an example, pick any technological field if you want). Moreover, it is absolutely impossible to cut Chinese access to raw materials, and quite hard to substitute their manufacturing, tariffs or not.
Taken to extreme, the trade war can terminate the trade between USA and allies and China. One can calculate who would loose more, but the real calculus is: which population can withstand it more and who will be better off in 10 years. And who will join the trade war.
Africa and Latin America will not join USA. Consider Brazil, currently having as pro-USA government as is possible for that country. Export of soy beans, iron ore and other commodities to China is absolutely crucial, and the fact that USA is voluntarily removed from the competition is a boon. It is hard to think about a commodity for which China is not the largest market (coffee?). If Huawei rolls out a good product for a good price, it will find markets that could double domestic demand whether USA likes it or not.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | May 24 2019 3:00 utc | 103

@98 & 99 Chinese American with the link to Mao and the protracted war China is winning
Thanks for the link and wow, 1938 and China was starting the protracted war against imperialism that it is just now bringing to a conclusion.
I can only trust that China will not let the global private finance folks that I constantly write about get away with turning China into their next empire.
I also encourage you to share more with us MoA barflies that can see somewhat through the fog of the West but appreciate clarity from folks “on the other side”.

Posted by: psychohistorian | May 24 2019 3:04 utc | 104

To stop the on-going loss of its leadership position, the U.S. must redevelop its industrial base. But it cannot do so in world of open borders in which it has to compete with China. Thus, the U.S. is seeking to create its own sphere, accompanied by its loyal vassals, where it can redevelop its industrial base and ultimately recover its industrial strength and leadership, isolated from its competitors. dh-mtl @39 <= can not happen this way, because the USA is too corrupt at the top.. its contactors are on the take, it colleges incompetent, and well its politics instead of science.. all the way..in the technical sectors The strategic intent of Trump's economic and trade policies .. is not ..to achieve a trade deal with China, but rather to shut down trade between China (and the Multi-Polar sphere in general), in favor of a USA led coalition of corporate gangsters and their vassal states. Trump is looking to limit or harm the Multi-Polar sphere in every way, short of all out war, in order to ensure the loyalty of as many vassals as possible. dh-mtl @ 39 <= i say: corporate controlled governments no longer speak for the governed. the Multi-Polar sphere is the 800 lb gorilla all markets will merge into one <== the genius of Huawei in switching the os to Linux and the metal from high risk at 5G energies with aluminium to safer at 5G energies with tin . puts Huawei light years ahead of the USA based Israeli owned companies. So I agree. Shut down trade with intent to destroy the Chinese technological competition.. even if it takes a nuclear war to the last person alive to do it; is the corporate goal that cooperating governments are expected to bring about. Karlof1 @ 43 .. makes clear China and Russia both see Modi's victory as signficant .. humans don't care who produces the products they want them.. I also see Huawei technology on the verge of destroying microsoft because it is going to make linux the global OS. Huawei has no back doors, I am told, and that makes it acceptable to most people.. Intel, Google, FB and many Israeli companies are the big losers here. and it these losses these company feel that have inspired Trump to move against China.

Posted by: snake | May 24 2019 5:28 utc | 105

The China-US trade war is just a convenient starting point for the Empire to provoke a conflict which will be a vicious, no holds barred battle with the eventual winner taking the spoils. At stake is the empire’s success in keeping countries around the world obedient to its wishes by monetary bribery of the country’s elites, by means of color revolutions or ultimately by assassinating those independent leaders that took the empires proclaimed values of “freedom of speech” too literally. The empire’s smoke and mirrors is losing its luster. The Chinese system is delivering. Xi Jinping is keeping the Chinese people in the equation during its economic development. One stated goal – eradicating severe poverty, improving the country’s infrastructure and population’s standard of living. He’s delivering. Wonder why the empire is panicking?

Posted by: curious | May 24 2019 5:49 utc | 106

I’d be very interested in hearing about the effects of China sanctions on the steel industry ? ( globally )
This very week the British steel industry went into liquidation, with the loss of thousands of jobs.
Will Britain be forced to buy US steel ? and at what price compared to Chinese prices ? Will U.K. then become dangerously dependent on US .
Same applies to GM foods ect (Monsanto)
No ! getting into bed with America for post Brixit Britain will be a bad mistake.
Trump is due to vist U.K. early June ! like a vulture landing on a dead carcass .

Posted by: Mark2 | May 24 2019 8:24 utc | 107

Trump is not being a socialist by helping farmers. A country that ensures it’s farmers stay on the job has people with full bellies. Farming,especially this year, is a crap shoot. Unlike the casino where you can hit the ATM and go back to the table and have a chance to recoup your losses once the crop is destroyed there’s nothing coming for another year. The guy who isn’t going to plant most likely thinks if he plants he’s going to end up with huge losses so why bother. The crops are getting planted late in the Midwest and in most areas the daily temps for the last couple of months were way under average and if the trend holds there could be a cold summer and a very early frost killing the crops. We have people who think farmers are on the dole because of supports but the fact that they plant every square inch they can says otherwise. Even with those “handouts” farmers are going broke and out of business. They have a safety net so ignorant people can whine and moan with full bellies. Are you willing to gamble with your food supply? Another thing too is the moaning of the demise of the family farm. Just as the romantic nation that small retail businesses were better than the big box the family farm and small business weren’t as great as you want it to be. A great many of those so called corporate farms are owned by what were once family farmers and not mega corporations. Another case of American ignorance. It is a known fact that even on corporate farms American farmers are the hardest working and most productive on the planet.
Speaking of ignorance if one were to listen to ignorant media and ignorant commenters one would believe that the US is totally devoid of manufacturing. Far from it. The US was only surpassed as the #1 manufacturer in the world about 10 years ago. Still a solid #2. Big numbers on big and small planes, trains, and around 50 auto plants with manufacturers from around the world. Auto suppliers, farm equipment, construction equipment, major appliances, oil field equipment, steel mills, lumber and building materials, and so much more. It’s all there and more if people would quit being played for suckers and look around. Of course if the trend keeps going the titans of industry will continue to offshore manufacturing until there really isn’t any left. Those CEO’s their faith in the US by spending huge sums, a lot of it borrowed money, buying back their stock instead of investing in their companies future. So don’t blame the Chinese for a problem caused by the overpaid selfish CEO’s who would rather line their pockets and give themselves huge perks at the expense of their company and country. Most of Trump tax cut and repatriating foreign holdings for corporations went for bonuses and stock buybacks.

Posted by: snedly arkus | May 24 2019 8:31 utc | 108

SteveK9 @ 87 says:
…but at some point I expected some amazing inventions to come from Japan, when they were no longer ‘developing’, and could start making their own contribution to the World. It never happened. Nothing like television, nuclear reactors, the transistor, the integrated circuit, the laser, the personal computer, the graphical computer interface … nada … zip
oh really? what about the bullet train (1964), the pocket calculator (1970), blue LED light (early 1990s), android robots (2003), etc., etc.
the list is long. once you’ve pulled your head out, take a gander.

Posted by: john | May 24 2019 9:05 utc | 109

Teresa May has officially made a statement that she will step down as U.K. priminster on the 7th of June ! She looked very very upset ! 👋
One day after Trumps vist (blimey)
We will be able to judge our future by who else he spends time with ! If Farage then we’re all in deep trouble. Time to man the baracades !!!

Posted by: Mark2 | May 24 2019 9:27 utc | 110