Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
May 23, 2019

Why Trump's Huawei Ban Is Unlikely To Persist

The Washington Post World page summarizes a piece about consequences of Trump's ban on the Chinese telecom equipment manufacturer Huawei:

A key chip designer and British telecom companies suspended some dealings with the Chinese tech giant over security concerns.

However, nothing in the actual piece talks about security concerns. (I point this out because I perceive a trend towards such misleading summaries and headlines which contradict what the actual reporting says.)

The British processor company ARM, which licenses its design to Huawei, cites U.S. export controls as the reason to stop cooperation with Huawei:

The conflict is putting companies and governments around the world in a tough spot, forcing them to choose between alienating the United States or China.

Arm Holdings issued its statement after the BBC reported the firm had told staff to suspend dealings with Huawei.

An Arm spokesman said some of the company’s intellectual property is designed in the United States and is therefore “subject to U.S. export controls.”

Additionally two British telecom providers quote U.S. restrictions as reason for no longer buying Huawei smartphones:

BT Group’s EE division, which is preparing to launch 5G service in six British cities later this month, said Wednesday it would no longer offer a new Huawei smartphone as part of that service. Vodafone also said it would drop a Huawei smartphone from its lineup. Both companies appeared to tie that decision to Google‘s move to withhold licenses for its Android operating software from future Huawei phones.

These companies do not have security concerns over Huawei. But the casual reader, who does not dive down into the actual piece, is left with a false impression that such concerns are valid and shared.

That the Trump administration says it has security reasons for its Huawei ban does not mean that the claim is true. Huawei equipment is as good or bad as any other telecommunication equipment, be it from Cisco or Apple. The National Security Agency and other secret services will try to infiltrate all types of such equipment.

After the sudden ban on U.S. entities to export to Huawei, chipmakers like Qualcomm temporarily stopped their relations with Huawei. Google said that it would no longer allow access to the Google Play store for new Huawei smartphones. That will diminish their utility for many users.

The public reaction in China to this move was quite negative. There were many calls for counter boycotts of Apple's i-phones on social media and a general anti-American sentiment.

The founder and CEO of Huawei, Ren Zhengfei, tried to counter that. He gave a two hour interview (vid, 3 min excerpt with subtitles) directed at the Chinese public. Ren sounds very conciliatory and relaxed. The Global Times and the South China Morning Post only have short excerpts of what he said. They empathize that Huawei is well prepared and can master the challenge:

Ren said that Huawei will not easily give up on US chips but has a backup. The company is able to make American-quality semiconductors but does not mean it will not buy them, he said.

Huawei is nevertheless “very grateful” to American companies, who have contributed a lot to Huawei. Many of Huawei’s consultants are from American companies such as IBM, Ren said.

Asked how long the crisis will last for Huawei, Ren said the question should be directed at Trump instead.

But Ren said much more than that. Yiqin Fu, a PhD candidate at Stanford University, translated other parts of the interview which are more interesting then the English media reports:

Yiqin Fu @yiqinfu - 11:43 utc- 22 May 2019

Remarkable that Huawei's CEO never appealed to patriotism in his two-hour interview with the Chinese press yesterday. Instead, he said 1) nationalism is bad for the country; 2) China's future hinges on reform and opening up, and 3) China should honor its promises at the WTO.

Re innovation, Huawei's CEO said that China wouldn't be able to innovate given the state of its education. "China is used to throwing money at things. This strategy works for roads and bridges but won't work for chips. How much scholarship is there in our doctoral theses?"

Huawei CEO: China should incentivize foreign talent to migrate -- Israel and the U.S. became innovation hubs because they were able to attract migrants from the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. China will waste lots of time trying to innovate with closed doors.

Ren's tone stands in stark contrast to that of state media and official responses from Chinese ministries re Huawei. He even explicitly said, "Huawei products are only commodities. The only basis for using them is if you like them. Politics has nothing to do with it."

Also interesting that Chinese and English-language media focused on entirely different things when reporting the two-hour interview. Chinese intellectuals mostly seized on Ren's comment re innovation and nationalism, while the English-language press ran with headlines like these: Huawei CEO says U.S. ‘underestimates’ the company’s strength

U.S. media often portrait China as tight dictatorship where no one can speak his mind. But these public statements by Ren are nearly all in contradiction to China's current official policies.

In an earlier piece on Trump's trade war with China we pointed out that the U.S. can not win this game because Trump's policy lacks international support:

Few other countries will join Trump's anti-China campaign. It will further isolate the United States. That is quite an achievement for the MAGA man.

A new Bloomberg opinion piece agrees with that view:

Any effort to exert economic pressure on China, or to pursue selective de-integration with Beijing, would be most effective if coupled with a concerted effort to deepen integration with America’s democratic allies. Many of them also have growing concerns about Chinese economic coercion. Yet by launching trade skirmishes not just with China but with allies in Europe and the Asia-Pacific, the Trump administration has created discord where unity is urgently needed. And by reportedly failing to coordinate this ban with close allies beforehand, the administration risks heightening widespread European anger about American unilateralism under Trump.

There is also the question of whether Trump will stick with his current hard line. That question is the also the most important for the Europeans. Why should they break with China when Trump is likely to reverse his decision? He says he still wants to make a deal.

The consequence of the the 737 MAX accidents give China a tool to exert pressure of its own. The credibility of the U.S. regulator FAA is damaged as it was the last one to ground the planes. It is China that will decide when those planes are allowed back into its air. What if it does not do that. What if it buys less planes:

No other country has greater demand for aircraft: In the 20 years through 2037, Boeing estimates Chinese purchases at 7,690 new planes worth $1.2 trillion.

Airbus will be happy to sell all those planes. Unless of course Trump makes a deal and lets Huawei off the hook.

That will be -for now- most likely be the end of the story.

Posted by b on May 23, 2019 at 09:46 AM | Permalink

Comments
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It's really huge, that Huawei may no longer use ARM processors.

Huawei is thus forced to develop it's own processor design and push it into the markt.

Posted by: Andreas | May 23, 2019 10:00:52 AM | 1

@1

I do not believe this is precisely what will happen. Huawei already has its licenses purchased. In addition they could decide to disrespect the IP if this was the case.

Posted by: p | May 23, 2019 10:04:34 AM | 2

Huaweis’s suppliers in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan (ROC), and Britain are examining if they can continue to make business with Huawei, while some have already declared a suspension in cooperation.

The issue is that these non-American companies nonetheless use some American components of technology, and if they proceed they will be sanctioned by the US themselves.

It is the same reason why Russia’s Sukhoi did not in the end sell its SSJ-100 airliners to Iran — East Asian tech companies can hardly be expected to be more gung-ho on defying the US than Russia’s leading defense plant......

http://www.checkpointasia.net/big-blow-for-huawei-as-japanese-korean-british-firms-reconsider-or-suspend-cooperation-as-well/

Posted by: Arioch | May 23, 2019 10:05:39 AM | 3

> the Trump administration has created discord where unity is urgently needed

IOW Trump keeps sabotaging USA global integration and keeps steering it into isolation as he long said it should be

Posted by: Arioch | May 23, 2019 10:10:32 AM | 4

@p #2 - Huawei surely has their processors *as of now*.
That - if USA would not ban Huawei (HiSilicon) processors, because of using that ARM technology.

Thing is, Huawei would be isolated from next-generation ARM processors. They are locked now in their current generation.

Even Qualcomm today, for what I know, bases their processors on ARM's "default" schemes, instead of doing their development "from scratch", in a totally independent way.

It would push for slow but steady decline as "top" smartphone vendor into "el cheapo" niche.

Posted by: Arioch | May 23, 2019 10:14:28 AM | 5

At the same time Qualcomm would probably be forced to slash prices down for their non-Huawei customers.

https://www.zdnet.com/article/qualcomms-licensing-practices-violated-us-antitrust-laws-judge-rules/

Posted by: Arioch | May 23, 2019 10:16:54 AM | 6

Boeing is the counter-part in the contest to destroy Huawei. China has great leverage over Boeing's future. It is the nation with the biggest market now and downstream for 10-20 years. China need planes, thousands of them.

As for Huawei's chief doubting the prowess of the Chinese students, he only needs to look at the rapidity of the conversion of his nations' economy to a 98% digital economy. All that conversion was done by local, entrepreneurial innovators in the software and hardware tech sector. It happened only in China and completely by Chinese young people who had phones and saw the future and made it happen.

It has been Chinese minds building Chinese AI on Chinese Big Data.

Yes, they need Russian technologists and scientists. Those Russian minds in Russia, in Israel, in South Korea are proven difference makers.

The need China now has will meet the solution rapidly. For five years, the Double Helix of Russia-China has been coming closer in education and R&D institutes in both nations. China investors and Chinese sci-tech personnel are in the sci-tech parks of Russia, and Russians are in similar facilities in China. More will happen now that the Economic War against China threatens.

Huawei will have solutions to replace all US components by the end of the year. It will lose some markets. but it will gain hugely in the BRI markets yet to be developed.

In the long run, the US makers will rue the day Trump and his gang of Sinophobes and hegemonists took aim at Huawei and China's tech sector.

Posted by: Red Ryder | May 23, 2019 10:17:21 AM | 7

Let’s all boycott Most Violent, Biggest Brother tech.

Don’t buy shit.

Posted by: oglalla | May 23, 2019 10:40:03 AM | 8

This move by Google-USG is mostly a propaganda warfare move. Huawei doesn't depend on smartphone sales to survive. It's American market was already small, while China's domestic market is huge. China is not Japan.

Besides, it's not like Europe is prospering either. Those post-war days are long gone.

And there's no contradiction between what the CEO said and the Government line: both are approaching the same problem from different points of view, attacking it from different fronts at the same time. "Patriotism" is needed insofar as the Chinese people must be prepared to suffer some hardships without giving up long term prosperity. "Nationalism" ("politics") is toxic insofar as, as a teleological tool, it is a dead end (see Bannon's insane antics): the Chinese, after all, are communists, and communists, by nature, are internationalists and think beyond the artificial division of humanity in Nation-States.

Posted by: vk | May 23, 2019 10:46:37 AM | 9

Ren Zhengfei's attitude is remarkable, considering his daughter ia currently held hostage.

Posted by: Ptb | May 23, 2019 11:09:35 AM | 10

Talking Digital and security in the same sentence is laughable.... NOTHING Digital is 'secure',,, never has,,, never will.

Digital destroys everything it touches. At present, excepting for now the low wage States, it is destroying economies ever so slowly one sector at a time. This has nothing to do with security and everything to do with the dying West, especially the USA which is trying desperately to save what's left of its production whether it be 5G, Steel plants or Nord Stream. The West created China when it happily allowed and assisted Western corporations to move the production there in order to hide the inflation that was being created for wars and welfare and now has to deal with the fallout which eventually will be their undoing.

Posted by: ken | May 23, 2019 11:15:25 AM | 11

A full-blown trade war was probably inevitable, driven by geopolitical concerns as much or more than economics.

One wonders what each of China and US has been doing to prepare. It seems like the answer is "very little" but since it's USA that is driving this bus, I would think that USA would've done more to prepare (than China has).

PS It's not just Boeing. China also supplies the vast majority of rare earth minerals.

Posted by: Jackrabbit | May 23, 2019 11:22:20 AM | 12

@10,

Her captivity and probable imprisonment in the US explain his attitude.

She is a high profile pawn. The US must convict her in order to justify what they have done to her so far. She may not serve time, in the US prisons, but she will be branded a guilty person, guilty of violating the Empire's rules (laws).

Imagine Ivanka in the same situation. Her daughter singing in Mandarin would be little help.

The Trump Family will be a number one target for equal treatment long after "45" leaves office.

The US Empire is wild with Power. All of that Power is destructive. And all the globe is the battlefield, except USA. But History teaches that this in-equilibrium will not last long.

Posted by: Red Ryder | May 23, 2019 11:24:39 AM | 13

We've seen how Europe caved to US pressure to stop trading with Iran.

Now Japan and others are caving to pressure to stop trading with China.

There is already pressure and negotiation to stop Nordstream.

And all of the above leads to questions about Erdogan's resolve.

Posted by: Jackrabbit | May 23, 2019 11:26:33 AM | 14

Trump's heavy handed move against Huawei will backfire. The optic is unsettling; the US looks to be destroying a foreign competitor because it is winning. The ramifications of trade war with china (where the supply and manufacturing chain of most consumer electronics is these days) is disruptive. Trump has created uncertainty for many manufacturers since there is chinese part content is just about everything these days. Some manufacturers might relocate production to the US but most will try to simply decouple from the US entirely. Exposure to the US is really the problem not exposure to china.

Posted by: alaric | May 23, 2019 11:38:11 AM | 15

Google is a filty dog and usurper.
Android is based on the Linux kernel. The latter is open source. China should be considered to be able to create an Android competitor. Take the linux kernel (https://www.kernel.org/), and either reverse engineer the few Google smartphone-specific functionality addons that make it Android, or create similar addons yourself, start up a Play-store and off you go.

Posted by: bjd | May 23, 2019 11:52:00 AM | 16

Make that https://www.kernel.org/

Posted by: bjd | May 23, 2019 11:53:41 AM | 17

b: Why Trump's Huawei Ban Is Unlikely To Persist

The trade war with Iran was also unlikely to persist. But it has persisted, and deepened as European poodles pretended to resist and then pretended not to notice that they didn't.

A new Bloomberg opinion piece agrees with that view

No, it doesn't b. You say USA trade war will fail because it lacks international support. Bloomberg says USA should get international support to make it more effective. The difference is that it is highly likely that USA will get international support. It already has support from Japan.

USA has proven that it can effectively manipulate it's poodle allies. Another example is Venezuela where more than two dozen countries recognized Guido only because USA wanted them to.

<> <> <> <> <> <> <>

It's not Trump but the US Deep State that causes US allies to fall in line. Any analysis that relies on Trump as President is bound to fail as his public persona is manipulated to keep Deep State adversaries (including the US public) off-balance.

Like President's before him, Trump will take the blame (and the credit) until another team member is chosen to replace him in what we call "free and fair elections".

Posted by: Jackrabbit | May 23, 2019 11:53:44 AM | 18

Until the reserve currency issue favoring the "exceptional" nation changes, the economic terrorism will continue..

Posted by: ben | May 23, 2019 11:54:24 AM | 19

What is funny in all these stories, is that there is little to no Huawei equipment (not the end-user smart phone, home router and stuff, but backbone routers, access equipment,..) anywhere in the US - they are forbidden to compete. Most telcos are quite happy to sell in the US, as the absence of these Chinese competitors allows for healthy margins, which is no longer true in other markets.
So the Huawei ban hits first and foremost the US' partners.

Posted by: Jeff | May 23, 2019 12:00:34 PM | 20

@ben (19)

China can only undo the US-exceptionalsim if and when it can visibly project military power.

The only way to achieve that is tt has to make great haste in building a few fleets of aircraft carriers, fregats and destroyers, etc.

It must build a grand, visibly magnificent Chinese Navy.

Posted by: bjd | May 23, 2019 12:00:38 PM | 21

big time OT alert;

Modi wins in India, another victory for the world oligarchs.

Exactly mimicking conditions in the U$A. Media and governmental capture by the uber wealthy...

Posted by: ben | May 23, 2019 12:02:59 PM | 22

(Ignorant of tech aspects.)

The US is trying desperately to quash tech success / innovation introduced by others who are not controlled by (or in partnership with) the US, via economic war, for now just politely called a trade war - China no 1 adversary.

Afaik, the entire smart-phone industry is ‘integrated’ and ‘regulated’ by FTAs, the WTO, the patent circuit, the Corps. and Gvmts. who collaborate amongst themselves.

Corps. can’t afford to compete viciously because infrastructure, aka more encompassing systems or networks (sic) are a pre-requisite for biz, thus, Gvmts. cooperate with the Corps, and sign various ‘partnerships,’ etc.

sidebar. Not to mention the essential metals / components provenance, other topic. see

https://bit.ly/2K1pj3d - PDF about minerals in smarphones

Attacking / dissing / scotching trade between one Co. (e.g. Huawei) and the world is disruptive of the usual, conventional, accepted, exchange functioning, and throws a pesky spanner in the works of the system. Revanchard motives, petty targetting, random pot-shots, lead to what?

Posted by: Noirette | May 23, 2019 12:04:16 PM | 23

As I wrote in the Venezuela thread, major US corps are already belt tightening by permanently laying off managers, not already cut-to-the-bone production staff, and another major clothing retailer is closing its 650+ stores. And the full impact of Trump's Trade War has yet to be felt by consumers. As Wolff, Hudson and other like-minded economists note, there never was a genuine recovery from 2008, while statistical manipulation hides the real state of the US economy. One thing that cannot be hidden is the waning of revenues collected via taxes which drives the budget deficit--and the shortfall isn't just due to the GOP Congress's tax cuts.

The war against Huawei is only one small aspect within the overall Trade War, which is based on the false premise of US economic strength. Most of the world wants to purchase material things, not financial services which is the Outlaw US Empire's forte and most of the world can easily forego. Trump's Trade War isn't going as planned which will cause him to double-down in a move that will destroy his 2020 hopes.

Posted by: karlof1 | May 23, 2019 12:05:01 PM | 24

@vk #9

> Huawei's phones American market was already small, while China's domestic market is huge

Here is that data, for 2017, outside the paywall: https://imgur.com/a/8bvvX9B
Data for 2019 is probably slightly different, but the trends should keep on.
That data also does not separate Android-based phones from non-Android phones.

So, segmenting Android into Google and China infrastructures would mean

1) Huawei retains a $152B market - China
2) Huawei retains an unknown share in $87B market - APAC
3) Huawei loses a $163,9B market - all non-China world.

At best Huawei looses 40,7% of world market. That if all APAC population would voluntarily and uniformly drop out of Google services into Huawei/China services (which they would not).
At worst Huawei retains 37,7% of the marker (if APAC population would uniformly follow Google, which they would not either).

Posted by: Arioch | May 23, 2019 12:05:34 PM | 25

bjd @ 21 said;"It must build a grand, visibly magnificent Chinese Navy."

I agree, that would help, but, don't hold your breath til' that happens. At this stage of the globes mentality, it seems finances dictate EVERYTHING, and the U$A still holds the winning hand with the reserve currency issue..

Posted by: ben | May 23, 2019 12:11:18 PM | 26

@15

Huawei already has for some time a linux based OS for thier products in development.

https://www.huaweicentral.com/here-are-some-more-details-on-huaweis-future-os/

The deeper problem is not Google pre se, but the FCC and the hidden operation system that runs the radio and modem.

Posted by: jbc | May 23, 2019 12:14:49 PM | 27

The US sanctions against Huawei are very dangerous for Apple, as I'm sure b and the threads have discussed. ZeroHedge had the breakdown on the numbers yesterday: How Trump's Huawei Ban Could Blow Up Apple's China Business.

And at the Saker, Escobar laid out some of the tidal currents on Tuesday: Why capturing Huawei is no victory in tech war.

A commenter to the Escobar piece reminded us of a 2017 interview with Apple CEO Tim Cook. He explained that the production chain for Apple product is an intelligent chain that requires innovation at all stages. It's not like the outdated stereotype of sending the plans to China to be followed by low-wage slaves. Apple depends on the brilliance of the Chinese workforce for the superiority of its product. The iPhone isn't the iPhone without Chinese minds helping to make it:
Apple CEO Tim Cook: This Is the Number 1 Reason We Make iPhones in China (It's Not What You Think)

Posted by: Grieved | May 23, 2019 12:17:05 PM | 28

Chinese education? At any level they are light years ahead of any education system in the US. Here in my son’s school, they just teach the students what to think, instead of how to think. And what is the end result? Well, I work as a manager at a Fortune 500 company, I hire some of those young men and women, and they have the intelligence of a cinder block. And their penmanship is that of a toddler. It is very sad.

Posted by: Jose Garcia | May 23, 2019 12:17:42 PM | 29

Does anyone believe that the world is not at war?

Yes, one of the spinning plates I write about is the threat of nuclear war and its potential path which we have not gone down, yet

The ban on Huawei is another spinning plate in the war that is leading to two social order camps and/or more chaos as empire continues to self destruct.

Please understand why the China/Russia axis will win the economic war. They build/provide things that people need to live. The West economic engine is marketing/sales/supply driven. It is about to self destruct because it can only push those things that none really need or want .....like war

Another big lie that Trump is telling is that the US is getting ripped off by all the rest of the nations. Americans have been living off the rest of the world for decades and it is hidden in debt, another spinning plate that was front and center a couple of years ago.....yes, it is still spinning snd getting bigger......wonder how that will play into the war?

In the taunting of the world by empire to retain control, their actions are showing them for the bully BSers that they are. The US has been running boats through the contentious waters off Taiwan since last July as a bullying tactic against China.

The bully empire is losing the war. Wait until the threat of US bankruptcy/world debt is taken out as a negotiating tactic and then you will know you can put a stick in it, its done. I want to be at the negotiating table when all the rich come forward with their proof of ownership of this and that in the new world, if that hasn't already been done with the elite in China behind everyones backs.

Posted by: psychohistorian | May 23, 2019 12:21:12 PM | 30

@29 Jose Garcia

My own comment to the Tim Cook revelation is that Mao the great revolutionary deserves much of the credit for the educational superiority of Chinese society. It was his Cultural Revolution that brought both political power and education to the peasants in 80%-rural China. Ramin Mazaheri has a great work on this at the Saker, and I have linked to it frequently. Let's do it again:
How the socioeconomic gains of China’s Cultural Revolution fueled their 1980s boom (6/8)

Ren's comment cited by b about the intellectual deficiencies of the Chinese workforce is interesting. It shows how far ahead Hauwei looks. Thus reminds me of Putin's constant exhortation to his nation to achieve the next "breakthrough", when it is clear that Russia already leads in many of the sciences.

Both Russia and China could be considered strategically in the lead at present, yet neither country is willing to sit still. Both are surging deliberately into the future. In a sense, even as allies, they are each other's competitors also in the sciences. Is it Putin who says, whoever rules AI rules the world? And my guess is that China currently rules it.

Posted by: Grieved | May 23, 2019 12:24:58 PM | 31

Last week Huawei released their Intellegent Computing platform, based on their indigenous neural network design and fabricated by hiSilicon.

https://e.huawei.com/uk/products/cloud-computing-dc/servers/g-series

They have partnered and demonstraded with Audi an L4 autonomous vehicle with this technology.

Posted by: jbc | May 23, 2019 12:32:40 PM | 32

Arm,
Panasonic,
Toshiba,
already succumbed to fukus pressure to ditch Huawei.

fukus currently 'working' on Seoul, who wont
take long to cave in.

A veritable eight nations alliance
in economic strangulation of China.

Posted by: denk | May 23, 2019 12:37:18 PM | 33

Panasonic,
Toshiba,
already succumbed to fukus pressure to ditch Huawei.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-japan-economy-trade/japan-exports-fall-again-as-trumps-trade-policy-threatens-economic-outlook-idUKKCN1SS01E

How long will Japan willingly suffer?

Posted by: jbc | May 23, 2019 12:42:30 PM | 34

DJI, the world's no 1 drone manufacturer,
Hkvision, the world's no 1 cctv./surveillance supplier,

BOth targeted for sanction.

FUKUS wants to take down all Chinese high tech
winners, nib Made In China 2025 in its bud.
All this talk about security is just B.S.

Posted by: denk | May 23, 2019 12:47:27 PM | 35

Japan and India for that matter do not 'succumb' to US pressure when it comes to China.
They will always side with the US against China. Perhaps part of the reason for India's turn or partial turn toward the US is the Russia China partnership.

Posted by: Peter AU 1 | May 23, 2019 12:55:08 PM | 36

jbc 34,

As a vassal, Tokyo has never say NO to Washington.

During the eighties, its pressured to 'voluntarily' retract its territory water to
allow fukus nuke sub passage !

Look at Okinawa, they want the merikkans out
but Tokyo has no say in the matter, it could
only follow fukus dictat.

Currently its joining fukus FONOP provocation
in SCS, pissing off Beijing big time.

Why'd jp wanna piss off its largest trading
partner ?

It has no choice , just like Oz, SK...
When uncle scam bark 'jump', its 'allies'
know only one answer, 'how high my lord' ?
Even if it mean shooting themselves in the foot !

Posted by: denk | May 23, 2019 1:04:10 PM | 37


Japan and India for that matter do not 'succumb' to US pressure when it comes to China.
They will always side with the US against China.

The Chinese animation Year Hair Affair is a cute historical backgrounder for Chinese geopolitics.

Posted by: jbc | May 23, 2019 1:11:15 PM | 38

This is the beginning of dividing the world into two spheres. A Multi-Polar sphere, led by China and Russia, and a U.S. led sphere.

In the current world order, the U.S. has lost its place of leadership. Militarily it has been surpassed by Russia and economically it has been surpassed by China.

In terms of the economy, China's GDP (PPP basis) is some 20% larger than the U.S. In terms of what counts, producing useful products, the difference is much larger than that. In fact the U.S. hasn't produced the value of products that it consumes for more than 30 years, and is currently running a trade deficit of more than 2% of GDP. The accumulated foreign debt, resulting from these on-going trade deficits is a major strategic threat.

Not only has the U.S. lost its position of leadership, its perspectives are rapidly deteriorating. 30+ years of Globalization has destroyed its industrial base, and without an industrial base it cannot compete either economically or militarily.

To stop the on-going loss of its leadership position, the U.S. must redevelop its industrial base. But it cannot do so in world of open borders in which it has to compete with China. Thus, the U.S. is seeking to create its own sphere, accompanied by its loyal vassals, where it can redevelop its industrial base and ultimately recover its industrial strength and leadership, isolated from its competitors.

This, in my opinion, is the strategic intent of Trump's economic and trade policies. He is not looking to achieve a trade deal with China, but rather to shut down trade between China (and the Multi-Polar sphere in general), and a U.S. led economic sphere, which consists of the U.S. and its vassal states. He is also looking to limit or harm the Multi-Polar sphere in every way, short of all out war, in order to ensure the loyalty of as many vassals as possible.

Posted by: dh-mtl | May 23, 2019 1:15:10 PM | 39

@ Posted by: Arioch | May 23, 2019 12:05:34 PM | 25

Those figures will not be unchanged forever. China is not only growing in numbers, but also in purchase power.

But this discussion is a moot point, since Huawei will support android apps in the near future (with or without Google's Play Store) and the smartphone sector is not Huawei's bread and butter, but 5G.

Posted by: vk | May 23, 2019 1:23:58 PM | 40

peter au 36

Dont forget there was a 'honeymoon' bet jp./china
in the 70's, true to form, fukus crashed the party by removing the pro Beijing PM, SINO/JP
relation has nose dived ever since that regime
change.

Posted by: denk | May 23, 2019 1:26:04 PM | 41

Sunday, Jan. 1, 2012

READERS IN COUNCIL
JAPAN TIMES

What drives a war-loving culture?

By KENZABURO SUGAI


excerpt,

'Many Chinese today may hate the Japanese, but they also know that America is doing to them today what America did to Japan before the Pearl Harbor attack. They may hate to openly admit this, but America is slowly trying to put a chokehold on China's oil supplies by conquering Iraq, Libya, South Sudan and, soon, Iran. America is already stirring up trouble in South China Sea.

By [embargoes and other economic sanctions], including oil-supply chokeholds, America has consistently been at the forefront of provoking and promoting war. After all these years, I wonder what underlying philosophy drives this war-loving culture.'

Posted by: denk | May 23, 2019 1:33:33 PM | 42

Peter AU 1 @36--

I guess you didn't see this Indian Punchline item: "China hails Modi victory. This is why." And China's position is echoed by Russia.

Posted by: karlof1 | May 23, 2019 1:36:23 PM | 43

Article is rather old, but what a smooth language! :-)

https://www.tomshardware.com/news/huawei-ready-replace-android-windows,39396.html

Huawei is starting to seem like the smartphone industry's equivalent to a doomsday prepper. You know the type: stockpiles canned goods, owns more guns than a sporting goods store, hates reminding people the headpieces are made from tin foil instead of aluminum foil. That's essentially what Huawei did--presumably minus the bit about foils--by creating its own mobile and PC operating system in case it couldn't keep relying on Android and Windows.

The difference here is that Huawei's apocalypse kinda-sorta happened......

Posted by: Arioch | May 23, 2019 1:37:03 PM | 44

dh-mtl 39

Barring major war or US collapse that is the way I see it going. At some point though Europe will join the multi-polar world which will be the end of the US. The more sanctions and secondary sanctions the US puts of Europe, the faster this will happen.

Posted by: Peter AU 1 | May 23, 2019 1:37:18 PM | 45

Huawei should take this opportunity and go the high road, fork a new "android" from the open source code base and create a secure OS, one that doesn't allow FB, google and the usual suspects to snoop at will by default, out of the box. Oh, an leave it open sourced.

May be even partner with snowden on it. poke the establishment in the eye. The German Chancellor should be the first to try it out LOL. May even use Merkel on the ad campaign as she may be out of office by then. Much like Louis Vuitton had Gorbachev in their adverts in the 90s and 2000s.

I wouldn't worry on the silicon front. Licenced or not only marginal improvements and gains are made from gen to gen now, nothing too groundbreaking anymore. the bigger gains comes from the fabs and china is only a few gens behind. so what if you're using a computer from 2014? unless you're a gamer you probably won't even notice the speed difference. Also its like a build vs buy decision, once they are forced to build it'll not take too long, may be a decade. Once that happen all critical dependencies are gone.

What this does is creating a shit list of companies from which there's no going back from. China will pick its moment to kill off each of these in time. They have a long memory.

In the history books of the future, forcing Chinese to develop their own high tech industry for self sufficiency will be one of the worst move ever for the establishment.

Posted by: A.L. | May 23, 2019 1:46:44 PM | 46

dh-mtl @ 39; Pretty rosey scenario you suggest, but denk @ 42 seems more to reflect the reality of today's moves by empire.

Sorry, but this present regime gets no credit from me for anything but constant BS and
bullying...

Posted by: ben | May 23, 2019 1:49:54 PM | 47

dh-mtl @39--

Interesting scenario. That may be his intent, but following through will destroy US retailers well before the imported goods they now sell can be replaced by domestic manufacturing. PLUS, the financial system must be persuaded to provide the capital to rebuild the lost industrial capacity but there's zero indication it's willing to do that. Indeed, it continues to maximize the financialization of the Outlaw US Empire's economy, which is the opposite of what you posit as Trump's goal.

And it's not just the industrial base that's hollowed-out; it's also the educational base that's also melting away. And the Trade War's decimating the Ag sector, too. The current economic reality within the Outlaw US Empire is far worse than what the statistics say as more people become have-nots daily.

IMO, the choice to combat BRI/EAEU integration doomed the Outlaw US Empire to decline and fall; and that choice was made by Obama, Clinton and the Deep State faction controlling them.

Posted by: karlof1 | May 23, 2019 1:59:58 PM | 48

Commenters should realize:
1) There is already a viable open source Android - and I don't mean the theoretical Linux underpinning. It is called Android Open Source Project: AOSP.
The core capabilities aren't the issue - it is more about Play Store.
Think of the Gillette razor/razor blade model. Gillette is immensely profitable because every customer that buys a razor has to buy razor blades. The razor is simply the anchor. HP tried to do this with printers and printer ink, with much less success.
For smartphones, the customer's data, apps/app store and the UX interface are the razor while the actual hardware is the razor blade. Huawei won't have problems selling to people who use feature phones or who aren't heavy apps users or who don't have much data in a cloud program on an app, but it will make it much harder for Samsung users to switch to Huawei if they can't bring their apps with them. The UX interface will be somewhat different as well, although Android UX just isn't as good as iPhone irregardless of actual maker of phone.
2) Huawei's more invested in the baseband/5G sector. As other commenters pointed out, Huawei doesn't sell hardly at all in the US. It is the 2nd and 3rd world which it makes most of its revenue outside China, with 5G being its primary opportunity in the 1st world.
3) ARM, or more specifically Qualcomm. ARM chips are ubiquitous, but primarily because the engineers find it more convenient to use ARM design environments when customizing the actual implemented silicon for each mobile model. I don't see this as a major impediment; there are all manner of alternatives if push comes to shove.
Qualcomm is a much bigger issue. They have a qualitative and IP based advantage over alternatives, but losing the Chinese market would seriously hurt that company.
4) The real problem isn't ARM, mobile or even the chips - it is the semiconductor manufacturing equipment and the silicon wafers. Japan and the US dominate these - an export ban that really aimed to hurt China (and those companies) would target these sectors.

Posted by: c1ue | May 23, 2019 2:06:05 PM | 49

karlof1
Modi appears to be a moderating force in Hindu nationalism which from everything I have read are very anti China. Far more moderate than I thought a couple of years back.

Posted by: Peter AU 1 | May 23, 2019 2:09:07 PM | 50

Denk
It may well depend on who is in power in China, but at the moment Abe is in power and will side with the US against China.

Posted by: Peter AU 1 | May 23, 2019 2:11:34 PM | 51

@ Posted by: c1ue | May 23, 2019 2:06:05 PM | 49

And that's why, if China and Huawei play their hand right, damage will only be short-term. If Huawei's products indeed are superior to the competition and remains so in the mid-long terms, even the power of incumbency that Google and ARM hold will not last.

Posted by: vk | May 23, 2019 2:13:45 PM | 52

Sure security has nothing to do with it. It is all about seeing the US leading a Trade war and European companies not wanting to get trapped in it.

The Trade war is going to get bigger. The US will be determined to prevent Huawei doing any business in Europe. The Trade war is NOT US vs China. It is US block vs China block.
Europe is in the US block whether it wants to be or not. Just as Russia is in the China block.
There is no way the US can permit Huawei to be active in Europe or Nordstream2 to open in Europe during a Trade war. They won't happen. The US has plenty of tools and abuses of the law open to it, and will use them.

(This is what Iran and Venezuela are all about - fail to show loyalty with US, or even think about working with China instead, and the US will destroy you, starve your people, block all oil sales, sanction medicines. And mostly exaggerate to the world what it is doing.)

Posted by: Michael Droy | May 23, 2019 2:18:24 PM | 53

Oh, and we shouldn't forget about the 737-MAX fiasco as compensation litigation is now entering the drama, and such litigation won't be limited to just China. Will Trump try to shut Chinese businesses out of the US judicial system via executive order? Even if he tries and fails, the damage done to US credibility will be even worse that the MAX fiasco itself.

Posted by: karlof1 | May 23, 2019 2:22:56 PM | 54

@53 michael droy... you are saying some of the same as what @39 dh-mtl states... i like and agree with much of what both of you say for different reasons.. your post has a much more ominous feel to it!

Posted by: james | May 23, 2019 2:39:20 PM | 55

https://sputniknews.com/asia/201905231075273947-india-japan-srilanka-port-development/
"The $500 million development project holds high importance in the region, as the project has been stalled since 2016 due to major diplomatic manoeuvre between consortiums led separately by India and China to acquire the project.

New Delhi (Sputnik): India and Japan have struck an important tripartite agreement with Sri Lanka to jointly develop the 'East Container Terminal' in Port of Colombo. As per the agreement, a terminal operator company will be set up with the Sri Lanka Ports Authority holding 51% stake and rest split among India and Japan."

Posted by: Peter AU 1 | May 23, 2019 2:43:47 PM | 56

The New York Times ran a story last December which revealed that U.S. efforts to stymie Huawei go back almost a decade
(“How a National Security Investigation of Huawei Set Off an International Incident” NY Times December 14, 2018).

“Former federal prosecutors said pursuing Ms. Meng, 46, for alleged bank fraud proved to be a better line of attack than trying to build a case on national security grounds...Counterintelligence agents and federal prosecutors began exploring possible cases against Huawei’s leadership in 2010… The effort was led by United States attorney’s offices in places where Huawei has facilities, including Massachusetts, Alabama, California, New York and Texas…This summer, the prosecutors decided to file criminal charges against Ms. Meng — fulfilling their years long goal of going after Huawei executives for allegedly acting as an extension of the Chinese government.”

The “bank fraud” charges were just a pretext, or a “line of attack”, for an already determined policy, just as the “national security” grounds were a pretext - as the failure to expose the alleged espionage facilities of Huawei products reveals, after a decade of looking for them. This nuclear option of cutting Huawei entirely loose from the US connected international system appears a response to the rejection of alleged national security concerns in Europe.

Posted by: jayc | May 23, 2019 2:44:09 PM | 57

Wow! Hu Xijin Global Times Editor in Chief in short vid:

"#US is no longer fighting a #tradewar with China, but is waging a full-scale war of conquering China without firing a shot. China is fighting for the country's economic sovereignty, as well as its scientific and technological sovereignty."

With English subtitles, the message is terse and clear--No trade deals; no compromises with US "fascists."

"The US has lost the ideological basis to maintain national rationality."

Wow!

Posted by: karlof1 | May 23, 2019 2:45:23 PM | 58

denk 41
I see Japan and China signed a treaty of peace and friendship in the 70's. I guess that's why FUKUS crashed the party.

Posted by: Peter AU 1 | May 23, 2019 2:52:48 PM | 59


I am puzzled as to why the European countries offer no resistance to US policies that are clearly not in their interest. If they did something other than roll over, the US approach would have to change. Do the ordinary citizens living in the EU not recognize the price they pay for their leader's spinelessness? It seems to me that the European populous should be resentful toward the US and that that resentment at some point manifest at the polls. What am I missing?

Posted by: David | May 23, 2019 3:04:18 PM | 61

@b

That the Trump administration says it has security reasons for its Huawei ban does not mean that the claim is true

The US is playing the security agenda because they know that there's no US company able to push for 5G in the US except in the antenna and chips sets. No OEM manufacturer apart from subsidiaries of Ericsson and Nokia. The 5G race is ON and Silicon Valley has been left behind.

No more games when the US State Dept used to force the hands of foreign puppets to but Lucent or Cisco telecomm products.

Posted by: Yul | May 23, 2019 3:20:47 PM | 62

denk
The piece you quoted "Many Chinese today may hate the Japanese, but they also know that America is doing to them today what America did to Japan before the Pearl Harbor attack. They may hate to openly admit this, but America is slowly trying to put a chokehold on China's oil supplies by conquering Iraq, Libya, South Sudan and, soon, Iran. America is already stirring up trouble in South China Sea.'

No acknowledgement of what Japan was doing to China when US blockaded their oil supplies, nor the 23 million or so Chinese killed by Japan during their occupation.

I also found another letter to the editor in the same vein. Although they want Japan to break away from the US, when it comes to China these same people seem to have no idea what Japan was doing in China prior to pearl harbour - they seem to think Japan was a piece loving nation that US blockaded. Makes it difficult for a Japan China relationship.

Posted by: Peter AU 1 | May 23, 2019 3:22:12 PM | 63

David @ 61
What your missing is perhaps the fact Europe is in melt down ! I’m pleased.
https://mobile.twitter.com/chunkymark

Posted by: Mark2 | May 23, 2019 3:23:41 PM | 64

Here's another vid on same topic but focused on the impact on Africa and its telecom market:

"Steve Bannon says killing @Huawei more important than trade deal with China @alykhansatchu ...In fact, Huawei is the bloodstream of Africa’s telecom infrastructure. How this plays out in Africa is now an ‘’above the radar’’ issue."

Forgot to comment on inanity of pro-US comments on previous twitter vid thread, with their propaganda-addled minds. Rather doubt the Outlaw US Empire will fare well in a battle for Africa due to its previous neoliberal predations and neocolonial actions--Win-Win offers much better opportunities!

Posted by: karlof1 | May 23, 2019 3:25:17 PM | 65

Yeah, OT but about tech. AOC's Committee Hearing about the abuse and violation of constitutional privacy rights by facial recognition tech. Oh, and on open thread, I mentioned she's going after Mnuchin!

Posted by: karlof1 | May 23, 2019 4:01:19 PM | 66

China and US: The economy is the bow, the army is the arrow. China has a big bow.

The news that a big capitalist would rather trade with the enemy, particularly one who loves billionaires, should not be a shock. It is a powerful sign of Chinese political weakness, in my opinion.

Posted by: steven t johnson | May 23, 2019 4:08:04 PM | 67

---OT---

China in Jamaica

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QDTlwEAUB94

Posted by: arby | May 23, 2019 4:09:21 PM | 68

@68 arby

I don't think it is off-topic, actually. It's eye-witness reporting on how China invests and proposes deals. When they get turned down they don't invade or bomb or practice regime change. They just offer more deals. And when accepted, the Chinese work alongside the locals. And I have seen plenty of commentary (no specific links unfortunately) that the US propaganda of Chinese "debt-trapping" countries is simply not true. The Chinese way seems to be allowing as much flexibility to their partners as they can, in order for both sides to complete a deal. This is all in stark contrast to the way that countries such as Jamaica and Africa have been treated by colonialists.

My point - to keep this on topic - would be that China is "killing them all with kindness", and conquering the hearts and minds of the world, steadily and surely. To upset this by rash reactions to uncouth provocations from the hooligan US would be counter-productive to the enormously larger prizes of world trade.

Posted by: Grieved | May 23, 2019 4:24:47 PM | 69

denk @35 sez: "FUKUS wants to take down all Chinese high tech winners, nib Made In China 2025 in its bud. All this talk about security is just B.S."

This is absolutely true. This is precisely the point of America's attacks on China... or at least it is one of the top three.

The problem is that these attacks are several years too late if the goal is to preserve America's hegemony and keep China down. At this stage of the game the attacks will just encourage China to expedite Made In China 2025 and move the date ahead to Made In China 2020. Can China condense six years of development at an easy pace into one year of development at an emergency pace? Likely they can get quite close, and if it takes them until 2021 to close the loop on their supply chains then that is still good enough.

"I fear all we have done is to awaken a sleeping giant and fill him with a terrible resolve." --Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto

Except now the sleeping giant is no longer America, but rather the giant of the present is China. America has become the half-dead giant, rotting on the gurney in the intensive care unit and being barely kept alive by artificial means. China has the giant-sized share of the world's modern industrial capacity, but more importantly China has massively underutilized creative potential that just needs a purpose to cause it to blossom. America's economic attacks are handing China that purpose.

The best of America's engineering talent are either foreign imports or fading graybeards in their twilight years. America has very little domestic talent in the academic pipelines to power anything like a technological renaissance. China's best and brightest are still wet behind the ears and full of youthful exuberance. All they need are challenges worthy of them to flex their intellects against. America's economic warfare are handing them those challenges.

Few people seemed to realize back in 2014 that America's economic attacks on Russia would make Russia stronger. Back then it was all doom and gloom and predictions of dire consequences for Russia. Rather than having its economy destroyed, though, Russia is now the strongest it has been since the Soviet Union was dissolved. The empire's attacks have caused Russia to reverse the loss of diversification in their economy and have revitalized sectors of the economy that had been moribund due to inability to profitably compete internationally.

China's circumstances are nothing like Russia's were back in 2014; nevertheless, the empire's attacks on China are likewise more of a gift than a bane, just for different reasons. The Chinese have not tried seriously to exceed America technologically so far because they, culturally, have what appears to western eyes to be relatively low self-esteem. To them western universities like Harvard and MIT and Cambridge have mythical, bigger-than-life reputations that the Chinese would be presumptuous to think they could match. Throw that in with the Chinese mindset in which they value collaboration and cooperation rather than victory and dominance over others and one can see they simply do not have the drive to crush competitors like Americans do. That said, with America throwing up a tech embargo against China the Chinese "competition" issue is greatly simplified. They no longer have to worry about how they stack up to imaginary superhuman western peers, but only about doing the best that they can. In practice what that means is that instead of trying to make an operating system as good as Android, or a processor as good as ARM, they will instead focus on making the best operating systems and best processors that they can. This change in focus is what is needed in the mass psychology of China's culture in order to transition into true global leaders. To be certain, China had started this transition some time ago, but America's tech embargo will accelerate that transition to completion.

Interesting observation: Notice how some cheerleaders for the evil empire talk up its durability; argue that the empire is good for another hundred years or more? Point out how strong and omnipotent the empire remains despite its insurmountably growing mountain of problems? To a small degree they are correct, and the US isn't going to evaporate as a global power in the next six months or anything like that. Now contrast that with the predictions of immediate doom for China if the domestic processors they can use are currently half a development cycle behind what they can purchase from the West. That doesn't make much sense, does it?

In the manner that America's economic attacks on Russia incentivized Russia to diversify their domestic economy and in the process strengthen it, America's tech-focused attacks on China will empower rapid advancement in China's domestic tech rather than squash it.

That's not quite what the empire is intending, but when was the last time the empire actually achieved what they intended? I cannot think of anything even going back decades.

Posted by: William Gruff | May 23, 2019 4:34:58 PM | 70

@60 jbc

Yes, we've seen much reporting that the internal outrage in China against the US is high. This was an eloquent commentary by Liu Xin - although only editorial I think, and not formal policy.

"Unless the US side returns to civility and treats China as an equal, it's impossible to pursue productive trade talks."

China is culturally recognizing the same "agreement-incapable" nature of the US that Russia noted formally a year or two ago.

~~

@58 karlof1

Strong statement from Hu. Thanks for the various updates.

This seems like a classic MoA thread so far: rich in information and thankfully short of squabbling.

Posted by: Grieved | May 23, 2019 4:36:25 PM | 71

BREAKING NEWS

Assange to be charged under Espionage Act.

Posted by: karlof1 | May 23, 2019 4:39:28 PM | 72

arby
A good video and exposes peoples fear of China for what they are. Fear of the unknown, an alien culture.
Fear of China is not a recent phenomenon nor related to communism. It was the same during the goldrush era of Australia, and several commenters in recent threads used the same fears as the white miners in Australia used over a century ago.

Then there is the aspect that Patrick Armstrong recognises - "everything we have been told is a lie". Unless this can be accepted, it is impossible to move past the preconceptions of years - a lifetime of western US propaganda, and generations of western culture and accurately look at the pros and cons of a country like China.

Posted by: Peter AU 1 | May 23, 2019 4:40:38 PM | 73

China has a very strong hand to put huge pressure on the US:
1) It does not care if the US taxes 25% for their products, US consumers and Industry will have to pay for that rise or develop reliable suppliers in other countries, some products will be able to quickly shift countries but most likely China will continue to produce all the goods, fake ship to Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia or even South Korea then re exported to the US. It is done already with a lot of different products by many countries in SE Asia when they have any case of blocking by the US.
2) Rare Earth is key, China is by far the nbr 1 supplier, it does not need to stop shipments to the US (nbr 1 buyer), it just need to restrain volume, price will jump and the finest US Industry that need rare minerals will pay the price.
3) Boeing MAX will be a slaughter, Chinese airlines have bought at least 1/3 of the 737MAX, and all of them are suiting Boeing, we are talking about billions of USD in cost of opportunity of having such a large fleet on the ground for such long time.
4) Soybeans and Corn, both still needed in China, supply has shifted to Brazil and Argentina, US farmers are going thru farmagedom, they either will go broke or the US will have to give aways billions in subsidies.
5) Pork and Chicken exports are key to China, and the US is a top producer, should Chine block it for some reason or raise taxes, it will make the US producers (already in financial distress) going nuts since in the past Russia used to buy the US excess on both meats, but now it produces most of its needs due to the US sanctions.

In summary, China has a strong hand, not even talking about USD in reserves nor in counter attacking against Apple or any other US NASDAQ companies.

Posted by: Canthama | May 23, 2019 4:57:03 PM | 74

Posters are way ahead of me on technical expertise, so feel free to laugh me out of court on this comment. I was seeing the huawei ban as something like a Ukraine coup operation for the US that will most certainly cause problems but in a good way for any in the rest of the world that don't go along with it. That is, when Ukraine broke so decisively with Russia, much of the latter's industrial muscle was cut off in eastern areas of Ukraine, and Russia had to put on speed compensating for those lost components - I was going to say expertise, but that indeed came up remarkedly quickly, so assuredly Russia had been in retention of intellectual abilities to compensate and they did so rapidly.

I am sure the situation with respect to all the components of digital infrastructure is much more complex, but the same urgencies will no doubt be in play in this scenario. I would think the stalling tactics of hostage taking or other nasty obstacles would be ineffective in the overall scenario.

The situation with Ukraine was scary and very confrontational. This is probably going to be even more so.

We here in the US might be in for Ukraine's experience. Which does make me feel uneasy to say the least.

Posted by: juliania | May 23, 2019 4:59:09 PM | 75

The US is now threatening Assange with up to 170 years in jail under Espionage violations. This might make it harder for UK judges to deport Julian to the US so I think this would put even more pressure on the UK government to fast track his case to get him deported before the next General election which looks increasingly likely to happen within the next year or so. Since if Labour under Corbyn takes over the government, they would be less likely to support the extradition.

Posted by: Kadath | May 23, 2019 5:18:24 PM | 76

Resorting to trade wars, tariffs, and overtly blocking western markets to chines advance technology and services, equates to admittance of failure by US policy planers of their prior wishful policies for control of international trade routes, control of China’ energy suppliers, and above all measurable failure of “Pivot to Asia” policy to contain China’ global influence.
This new policy is also bond to fail, the ruling American oligarchs they see themselves bigger than they are, for time being they are on denial and can’t believe that the post AMERICAN world has arrived.

Posted by: Kooshy | May 23, 2019 5:22:10 PM | 77

@bjd (19)

"China can only undo the US-exceptionalsim if and when it can visibly project military power."

At trillion $ and can't even win a war in Afghanistan, and for what, just so China can sell some electronics to the US? Just think of how many Belts & Roads that $ can build. Plenty other markets to develop. Forget your weirdo Uncle Sam.

Posted by: Bigger_Pic | May 23, 2019 5:31:02 PM | 78

bjd | May 23, 2019 11:52:00 AM | 16
Thank you bjd. Precisely the point. Open source is one very beautiful concept and has revolutionised much of human progress. It will not take long to produce a Google equivalent and the world will be grateful for it. The Chinese planners are patient and they are are good at offsetting risk so it wont surprise me if the Google hitch isn't overcome swiftly. Less income in royalty for Google is a plus in my ledger.

There has to be better alternatives to the junk design that has infected apple with its crappy keyboard issue crippling its brand for a while. The west has companies that are run more by banksters and less by innovators and design excellence. Such sloth is rapidly overtaken. Less income and royalty for the UKUSAI is a plus in my ledger.

See the Ubuntu Linux tablet for an early attempt to break the monopoly.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | May 23, 2019 5:35:11 PM | 79

Peter AU 1 | May 23, 2019 3:22:12 PM | 63

Thank you Peter AU 1 that is a mighty welcome reminder here. China has been countering its isolation vigorously with the belt and road initiative and the USA has been blocking every chance it can. Their black hand is behind the Baluchi terrorist attacks on Chinese port construction in Pakistan, the Uighur attacks in China and the USA support and their training camps in Idlib. see https://eurasiafuture.com/ for excellent analysis and lucid reporting.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | May 23, 2019 5:47:57 PM | 80

Report about US farmers troubles thanks to Trade War and consolidation. Reveals that Trump's a socialist as he's proposed subsidizing farmers beyond what they already get. Note what the farmer says about his local environmental conditions.

Posted by: karlof1 | May 23, 2019 5:55:57 PM | 81

uncle tungsten

Yes Sputnik had a piece the other day on Baluchistan. Forget the name of the terrorist group but they are making direct threats about China. by the Sputnik piece it was obviously one of these terrorists talking to an Indian 'journalist'. Looking up india's relationship with this mob and it goes back a long way. India is very much into this along with the US.
Baluchistan is where China is looking to get a port onto the indian ocean to bypass the Malacca strait and also where pipelines will meet up with Iran.
Baluchistan is the best spot for the US to hit China's belt and road initiative in Pakistan.
https://sputniknews.com/asia/201905201075152566-baloch-militants-threaten-cpec-china/

Posted by: Peter AU 1 | May 23, 2019 5:59:50 PM | 82

81 - K, I'd like to think that the money will go only to small family farmers. No large scale farmers have been known to kill themselves.

Small family farmers are near the top of my list of those who should get debt forgiveness, should it ever happen.

Posted by: Bart Hansen | May 23, 2019 6:14:12 PM | 83

Grieved @69
"And I have seen plenty of commentary (no specific links unfortunately) that the US propaganda of Chinese "debt-trapping" countries is simply not true. "

I have seen that myself and in my mind I think "that's what the US does" , projection? or pure propaganda.
I have read Economic Hit Man and he describes exactly the debt trapping system used by the US.

Posted by: arby | May 23, 2019 6:29:23 PM | 84

Bart Hansen @83--

Did you note the interviewee saying he wasn't going to plant this Spring? Think he'll get paid for holding his land out of production? And just how could he afford that if family farmers are "pinched" as he said? I grew up as a farm boy in Davis, California; all my elders were Southern California Citrus Ranchers; and I've looked into the genesis of current US Ag policy more than a few times. I was going to supplement my reply with some words by one of my favorite historians, William Appleman Williams, but couldn't find what I thought I wanted. Instead, I found something else, an article written about him and his historicism long after his death wherein the author noted this observation of his:

"'Americans denied and sublimated their violence by projecting it upon those they defined as inferior.'"

Which is precisely what we've seen occur again and again beginning with the Puritans and continuing until now. The linked article is lengthy, but if you've never read any of Williams's works--and even if you have--I highly suggest it.

Posted by: karlof1 | May 23, 2019 7:11:33 PM | 85

And I should add this essay to that @86: "Is America Possible Without Empire? Rather than sizzle or suffocate, let us get on with imagining a new America"

The opening tidbit:

"There is no way to understand the nature of our predicament except by confronting our history as an empire. That is the only way to comprehend the Iranian demand that we acknowledge our long-term interference in their affairs, the widespread anger about our acquiescence in the progression of Israel’s settlements on the West Bank, the Russian charge that we apply one standard to them and another to ourselves and the deep resentment of us among the peoples of the poor countries. The only way we can come to terms with those matters is to look our imperial history in the eye without blinking, flinching or walking away into the wonderland of Woodrow Wilson’s saving the world for democracy."

Posted by: karlof1 | May 23, 2019 7:19:30 PM | 86

The relationship between the US and China could not continue forever. Running a gargantuan trade surplus with the US year after year, and piling up numbers in a computer at the Fed. It was not good for the US or China. Trump is doing us all a favor blowing it up now, before it gets worse.

The jury is out on China, but we will know soon. When Japan was on the rise it did the same thing as China, copy stuff, steal stuff, manipulate their currency, etc. OK, that is how things go, but at some point I expected some amazing inventions to come from Japan, when they were no longer 'developing', and could start making their own contribution to the World. It never happened. Nothing like television, nuclear reactors, the transistor, the integrated circuit, the laser, the personal computer, the graphical computer interface ... nada ... zip.

The cliche is that the Japanese culture does not permit the creativity present in the West and particularly in the US (it turned out to be true). The same has been said about China. Well, I hope it is not true. I hope we see something new coming from China on the technology front that benefits the entire World. They are not the Japanese, so maybe it will happen. I hope it does.

Posted by: SteveK9 | May 23, 2019 7:42:18 PM | 87

SteveK9
In thinking about pre war Japan where it was at the leading edge of military tech of the day, I wonder if lack of innovation in current day Japan has something to do with US occupation.

Posted by: Peter AU 1 | May 23, 2019 7:48:30 PM | 88

Just musing.
The Chengdu Chinese J20 fighter plane is the first
5th Generation fighter plane manufactured outside the US.
It would appear thatit is a superior 5G fighter to that of the
the Lockheed f35.
It would also appear that the US is playing catchup.
They can neither match the technolgy or the price of manfacture.
.?....?

Posted by: Jack | May 23, 2019 7:57:19 PM | 89

Shttps://m.hanwha.com/en/products_and_services/aerospace-mechatronics.html?amc=cmpid_A02_C05_D11_L02
Did you miss this in your morning news.?

Posted by: Jack | May 23, 2019 8:06:41 PM | 90

@ 88 SteveK9

Actually, Chinese corporations have introduced some very interesting innovations into the Chinese market, but you probably haven't heard about them, because they have not become available yet in the West. You might like to read AI Superpowers by Kai Fu Lee, to learn, for example, about the sort of apps the Chinese have on their smartphones.

Posted by: Glenn Brown | May 23, 2019 8:08:52 PM | 91

Kadath @76

I've commented about the new charges against Assange in the Week in Review / Open Thread that has the Assange discussion.

I suggest that discussion continues there.

Posted by: Jackrabbit | May 23, 2019 8:09:49 PM | 92

86 - That article did not mention the problem farmers have with insurance. Different crops have different deadlines for planting in order to get crop insurance. If the deadline is missed due to floods for example no insurance is available. I don't know what trump intends to do about that.

That farmer seems to be in Mississippi and his land may be underwater.

Posted by: Bart Hansen | May 23, 2019 8:43:26 PM | 93

One only has to listen to the great Bannon to see what some would say is the truth. He who controls the telecomunications networks controls the world. This is what is at stake. Huwawie has a better cheaper phone, and a more advanced cheaper network.

I think we are safer in a US controlled world than a Chinese one, however Huawie might be the best of both, a network that must be pure or it cant exist.

Posted by: steve | May 23, 2019 8:50:09 PM | 94

Huawei is SO dangerous that it could be reinstated with a good trade deal. I really appreciate that Trump is such an open-mouthed dumb f*ck.


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china/trump-says-dangerous-huawei-could-be-included-in-u-s-china-trade-deal-idUSKCN1ST0PA

Posted by: daffyDuct | May 23, 2019 8:53:20 PM | 95

95
We saw how safe the world was when US had free reign. Not sure that the populations of the destroyed countries would agree the world is safer when under US control. Venezuelans may not think so either, nor the people aboard MH17 and come to think of it, the people aboard the Iranian airliner shot down by the US.

Posted by: Peter AU 1 | May 23, 2019 9:01:31 PM | 96

b.:

Um, Yiqin Fu did not translate Ren Zhengfei's interview. She paraphrased/interpreted some bits of the interview, and to someone who can actually read the Chinese under the English blurbs in her twitter thread (quoted in your article), there were several instances of rather clear slants and omissions in her paraphrasing.

The interview is too long for me to translate, but a few interpretations of my own:

1. Fu says that "Ren's tone stands in stark contrast to that of state media and official responses from Chinese ministries re Huawei", hinting at the "nationalistic" tone (which she obviously sees as negative) of the state media and Chinese government. She offers no examples. I will give one. In today's (May 23) press briefing, the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman, Lu Kang, responded to a question on Huawei by specifically mentioning Ren's interview, praising it for the "openness, strength and broad-mindedness". In response to a reporter on several foreign companies who have stated that they were continuing their association with Huawei (e. g. Panasonic, Infineon), Lu said that "most countries still clearly remember the example of France's Alstom". (The case of Alstom is one that is worth studying, by the way. It was attacked by the U. S. by legal means, and eventually preyed on by GE.)

2. To me, the most striking part of the interview is the discussion of how Huawei had long foreseen this scenario, and had spent billions over years preparing for it. Ren said that he had thought this moment would be still two years away, but the arrest of his daughter Meng Wanzhou pushed the timetable forward. Huawei has been on a full war mobilization footing since the start of this year.

3. Another point that I haven't seen brought up: About the future of Huawei, Ren said that the only thing he would exclude on principle is the "entrance of capital". In other words, Huawei is not publicly traded, and never will be. This is one of the reasons why Huawei feels it has a chance to weather the current sanctions: no panicky outside shareholders to answer to.

"We don't need capital to come in [to Huawei]. Capital's nature of greed will prevent the realization of our ideals."

4. On spending over a decade preparing "spare-tires": "The biggest spare-tire in the world is the nuclear bomb. What's the use of nuclear bombs?"

5. "China has too much money, why is the money only being saved in accounts in America? Why not save some in Europe, Russia, Africa...?" (From context, he meant investing in and lending to those countries.)

6. He has a high opinion of Sergei Shoigu and mentions the Russian defense minister's report on war preparation as recommended reading. ;)

Posted by: Chinese American | May 23, 2019 9:51:54 PM | 97

In these comment sections, people tend to bring up the Confucian/Buddhist/Sun Tze/Whatever aspects of "Chinese culture". I'm sorry, but there is something that smacks a bit of orientalism in the idea that these words somehow explain everything about the way China acts or responds to the U. S.'s attacks. But in any case: here is where I once again recommend one text of Chinese culture, which I personally consider the most relevant to the present situation:
On Protracted War

(Yes, this is as much Chinese culture as the ancient stuff. If there is one text I would make essential reading for all anti-imperialists, this would be it, no matter what you think of the effects of Mao's actions.)

Posted by: Chinese American | May 23, 2019 10:01:47 PM | 98

' Israel and the U.S. became innovation hubs because they were able to attract migrants from the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe'

misleading as jews go to israel (jews only 'state')...non jews do not

Posted by: brian | May 23, 2019 10:12:45 PM | 99

'U.S. media often portrait China as tight dictatorship where no one can speak his mind';

whereas its
US is a tight dictatorship where no one can speak his mind

Posted by: brian | May 23, 2019 10:37:13 PM | 100

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