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Venezuela – Coup Attempt Part Of A Larger Project – Military Intervention Likely To Fail
The Trump administration has launched a large political project to remake several states in Latin America. The Wall Street Journal headlines:
U.S. Push to Oust Venezuela’s Maduro Marks First Shot in Plan to Reshape Latin America
The Trump administration’s broader aim is to gain leverage over Cuba and curb recent inroads in the region by Russia, Iran and China
The plan includes regime change in Venezuela, Nicaragua and eventually Cuba. The removal of any Russian or Chinese interest is another point. It is a multiyear project that has bipartisan support. It will likely require military force.
The targets: Raúl Castro of Cuba, Daniel Ortega of Nicaragua, Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela.
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The project seems to echo the “New Middle East” plan then Secretary of State Condeleeza Rice launched in 2006. It largely failed due to U.S. incompetence but left behind severely damaged states.
That the U.S. is going for such a wide ranging plan in the western hemisphere might explain why Trump is pressing to end the other military projects in the Middle East and Afghanistan.
The starting shot for the new plan, the U.S. led coup attempt in Venezuela, is already in trouble. The U.S. selected puppet Juan Guaidó had called for demonstrations in support of his coup that were supposed to take place yesterday. But even the NYT, which propagandizes for each and every regime change operation the U.S. undertakes in Latin America, could find only little evidence of support:
Mr. Guaidó also took part in protests on Wednesday at the Central University of Venezuela in Caracas, where he was swarmed by international reporters. Wearing a white lab coat, he linked arms with medical students and marched with them up a roadway, before speeding off on the back of a motorbike.
The demonstration was one of a handful in the city on Wednesday, though on a smaller scale than some recent demonstrations. Some workers walked out of their jobs for hours in protest against Mr. Maduro and his government, gathering on corners through the capital.
Videos from Venezuela showed a crowd of some hundred people in the better off quarters of Caracas. Meanwhile pictures of several pro-Maduro demonstrations in various cities showed much larger crowds. New demonstrations will be held on Saturday and are likely to show similar results.
The Washington Post claims that anti-government protests took place in two of the more destitute areas of Caracas. But the report contradicts itself. It starts:
As the opposition campaign to oust President Nicolás Maduro dramatically escalated, the warren-like streets of the Puerta Caracas slum filled with pot-banging, anti-government demonstrators. A culture center run by Maduro loyalists was burned down. Hungry, beaten-down residents felt a rush of hope.
Then night fell, along with the boot steps of government forces.
Maduro called the arsonists “fascist criminals,” and residents in the western Caracas enclave paid the price. Mask-wearing special forces, locals said, swarmed the neighborhood last week, kicking in doors, rounding up young people and imposing an effective curfew.
Twenty propaganda filled paragraphs later we learn that the described arson of a culture center took place before the coup attempt happened and likely has nothing to do with it:
The uprisings began the night of Jan. 22, with residents of Puerta Caracas banging pots and lighting dumpsters on fire. Around midnight, neighbors say, a group of hooded boys threw molotov cocktails at the culture center.
Early Wednesday, family members said, Abel Pernia, 19, was heading to a doctor’s appointment when armed intelligence police officers grabbed him, shoved him against a wall and handcuffed him.
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… [more] protests erupted in Petare last Wednesday and continued until dawn. A group set fire to barricades, threw stones and attacked an outpost of the National Guard. Security forces repelled them with tear gas as residents chanted “we don’t want food boxes! What we want is for Nicolas to leave!”
Neighbors said that criminal gangs were among the crowd and created havoc by violently confronting the police. The response was immediate.
The coup attempt was launched on January 23. The arson incident took place on January 22. The following day the police came and arrested people involved in it. More gang riots followed.
The whole story has nothing to with the coup attempt or with general protests against Maduro. It is about gang crime in some slum quarters. Gang fighting has long been a problem in Caracas. A special police force, the FAES, was set up in 2017 to get it under control.
That the Washington Post has to use an unrelated incident to proclaim that the poor people support the coup attempt shows how little real evidence it has to support that propaganda claim.
The public in Venezuela is evidently not supporting the foreign induced coup attempt. A recent poll shows that more than 80% of the people are against sanctions and other international interventions to remove President Maduro. 80% also support talks between the government and the opposition which Maduro repeatedly offered but which the coup plotters reject.
It is very unlikely that civil disobedience or demonstrations will be able to remove the government of Venezuela. The opposition simply does not have enough people on its side to create more than inconveniences.
It is also not the plan.
It is obvious that the U.S. wants a violent conflict. Either the Venezuelan military will have to launch a coup or the violence will have to be brought in from the outside.
The military has for now declared that it is not willing to do anything against the government. Other measures will have to be taken. That the Trump administration selected Elliott Abrams, Ronald Reagan’s “Assistant Secretary of Dirty Wars”, as special envoy to its puppets is telling:
The choice of Abrams sends a clear message to Venezuela and the world: The Trump administration intends to brutalize Venezuela, while producing a stream of unctuous rhetoric about America’s love for democracy and human rights. Combining these two factors — the brutality and the unctuousness — is Abrams’s core competency.
An oped by the U.S. selected dude, who was created by the U.S. regime change machine, was published in today’s New York Times:
Juan Guaidó: Venezuelans, Strength Is in Unity
To end the Maduro regime with the minimum of bloodshed, we need the support of pro-democratic governments, institutions and individuals the world over.
Notice the “minimum of bloodshed”? One wonders how many thousands of dead will do.
Guaido explains the murky legal foundation for his claims to presidency:
I would like to be clear about the situation in Venezuela: Mr. Maduro’s re-election on May 20, 2018, was illegitimate, as has since been acknowledged by a large part of the international community. His original six-year term was set to end on Jan. 10. By continuing to stay in office, Nicolás Maduro is usurping the presidency.
My ascension as interim president is based on Article 233 of the Venezuelan Constitution, according to which, if at the outset of a new term there is no elected head of state, power is vested in the president of the National Assembly until free and transparent elections take place. This is why the oath I took on Jan. 23 cannot be considered a “self-proclamation.” It was not of my own accord that I assumed the function of president that day, but in adherence to the Constitution.
The early election in May 2018 was held on demand of the opposition parties some of which, urged by the U.S., did not take part in it. There is no evidence of fraud that lets one doubt the results. Maduro won among several candidates with more than 60% of the votes. One might argue that has more legitimacy than some other elected people.
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Not liking the outcome is not a reason to declare an election illegitimate.
If Maduro’s first term ended on January 10 why did it take it Guaido, as head of the National Assembly, thirteen days to find that Maduro’s second term was ‘illegitimate’? Moreover, if article 233 is used as justification to temporarily usurp the presidency then Guaido has the duty to hold new elections within 30 days. So far he has not even called for them. His reasoning is not convincing at all.
Guaido goes on to say that he needs support of the military. But this does not sound like he has it:
The transition will require support from key military contingents. We have had clandestine meetings with members of the armed forces and the security forces. We have offered amnesty to all those who are found not guilty of crimes against humanity. The military’s withdrawal of support from Mr. Maduro is crucial to enabling a change in government, and the majority of those in service agree that the country’s recent travails are untenable.
He further claims, like the Washington Post above, that the gang violence before the coup attempt shows that Maduro has lost all support:
Mr. Maduro no longer has the support of the people. Last week in Caracas, citizens from the poorest neighborhoods that had been Chavista strongholds in the past took to the streets in unprecedented protests. They went out again on Jan. 23 with the full knowledge that they might be brutally repressed, and they continue to attend town hall meetings.
Guaido ends by calling for external support for his endeavor.
What he needs are billions of dollars to build up some mercenary army that will help him to overthrow the government.
The U.S. seized Venezuelan assets but will have trouble handing them to Guaido. The main asset is CITGO, which owns refineries and gas stations in the United States. But CITGO is deep in debt. Its refineries depend on the heavy oil from Venezuela. If might well go into bankruptcy in which case the debt holders will take it over. At least 49.5 % will go to the Russian company Rosneft. The legal process will take years.
So how much U.S. money is Trump willing to invest in his plan?
Venezuela will have trouble defending itself against a foreign military attack. The Maduro government is not the most competent, the military is quite corrupt, and money is scarce. China and Russia may support it with some additional loans, but are otherwise unlikely to come to its help. Cuba and Nicaragua may be willing to send troops but have little else to offer.
But the Bolivarian movement in Venezuela has millions of supporters. Most are poor people who would lose out under a new rightwing government. While the Venezuelan military may be corrupt and not very willing to fight, many people will surely take up arms to defend the gains they made under Maduro and Chavez.
It might be relatively easy to invade Venezuela and to defeat its regular military. But the following occupation would be a very difficult endeavor. The Pentagon has seen how this worked out in Iraq. It will likely warn against the use of any U.S. troops in Venezuela. Other countries will likewise be careful not to get into such a mess.
The CIA and the coup plotters can hire thousands of throat cutting thugs to do some extreme damage to Venezuela. But they have little chance to win more than a completely destroyed country.
Might that be the real aim? Is the project for the New Middle East Latin America one of complete destruction?
After reading this news about the largest military base the Pentagon has abroad, which is currently in the Sahel, South Algeria, I am increasingly convinced that, in a scenario of non-aligned countries and resurgent super-powers opting for avoiding petro-dollar in their energy trades, this is all englobed in a wider strategy to control oil market, prices and flow….On the other hand, the article also throws a hint at how take over is organized at military level through mercenary forces:
The proximity of this base to the Algerian borders has provoked many comments, but this time in Algeria. In fact, the launch of the first deployed US military missions has intensified concerns raised since a senior US official told the Washington Post that “soldiers deployed in countries such as Algeria, Chad, Egypt and Kenya were receiving an imminent danger bonus. of $ 225 per month. ” Algerian officials immediately denied the information. The former ambassador of the United States in Algiers decided to intervene in turn, denying the statements of the American press.(…)
Rejected by a large part of the population of the area, the African brigades created by the French have not yet achieved the expected results due to the limited resources available, but mainly due to the persistence of the Libyan conflict, which is the source of much of the regional imbalance.
“The G5 did not receive the popular support it was looking for because people are not fooled, in the African press the writings that denounce the double language of Europeans abound. Today, the younger generation loudly denounces the looting of African resources by the same countries that are closing the door on migrants who are forced into exodus by poverty(…)
In the name of the fight against terrorism, Trump decided to deploy US troops in the Sahel to wage a war against terrorist groups. At the base of Agadez, the drones have already begun their mission. In a press release, the Pentagon spokesman said that “the American presence on the African continent is destined to promote its security interests.”(…)
Currently, many also fear that “the Americans will arm the people of the Sahel to officially help them defend themselves against terrorists.” These weapons can be used by different rival ethnic groups, there will be other wars, other tensions that will prolong their presence and turn it into colonization in the name of terrorism. The mode of operation is known and its consequences too.
This is probably related to recent discoveries of oil in the Sahara, concretely the zone comprising Taoudeni Basin. which went along with the surge of Al Qaida in these territories…
So far Taudeni, a gigantic basin that stretches between Mali and Mauritania, under the sands of the Sahara desert, was known for its salt mines. At the end of the 1960s they built a prison in that remote place where the prisoners were forced to work.
Everything changed in the spring of last year when Repsol, the Spanish oil monopoly, announced that it had found oil in the Taudeni field.
A few months later, on October 23, Defense Minister Pedro Morenés traveled discreetly to Dakar, the capital of Senegal, accompanied by his French counterpart Jean Yves Le Drian. In that African metropolis, a forum on “peace and security” was held in that region.
Oil, including that of the Sahara, is closely related to what the bourgeoisie calls “peace and security”, that is, to the aggressions and occupations of imperialism. In particular, the Taudeni concession has to do, for example, with the invasion of Mali by the French.
Taudeni is a huge extension, over half a million square kilometers, equal to that of Spain. Repsol was about to throw the towel in Mauritania when the news of the discovery of oil in Block 10 of the basin occurred.
However, an African media announced fears that the discovery would have a “calling effect” for terrorists, jihadists and bandits, or in other words: the site was so good that it could attract the voracity of competition, of other imperialist powers and other oil monopolies wanting to kick Repsol out of their domains.
The distribution of the cake has not pleased certain powers and in the end these disputes, Lenin said, are solved by throwing their hands on the army. Hence the visit of the Minister of Defense. As the African press said, Taudeni was not protected by anything. The government of the PP was put to the service of Repsol and Morenés traveled to Dakar to demonstrate the opposite. The Spanish army is trained to act as bodyguards for the Spanish oilmen who are going to take the black gold from Mauritania.
The oil is taken by Repsol and the expenses are paid by the taxpayers. That is the difference between the (capitalist) market and the (bourgeois) state.
With what part of the loot does Africa remain? With war, with terrorism, with jihadism, with … Oil maps are those of war.
Btw, that some commentator under this article pointed out that Repsol far from being a company of Spanish capital mainly, has as major share holder the US…..there you have why, in spite of the huge loses the sanctions against Russia and Iran have inflicted and are inflicting upon Spanish and European business and agro-industry, and the theatrical intends of showing some sovereignity, they are really being held by the balls. It is here, apart from trying to give a lesson to the empowered masses, which in the case of Venezuela are the majority of population supporting Maduro, where it is to e found the sudden support for the Trump administration´s crazy move in Venezuela. After all, according to the Russian envoy to Davos, they, business people, are very worried about the increasing social turmoil…
This is why the interests of big European oil companies are behind the shameful and undoubtful support for the coup in Venezuela by US, just today supported by the EU Parliament, as a proof, if more was needed, that what they understand by “democracy” and “humanitarian interventions” has nothing to do with what any decent human being in the world would do.
Related to how to organize the military take over, mercenary forces are operating long ago in the Colombia narco-colony…..
Posted by: Sasha | Jan 31 2019 21:23 utc | 35
Some thoughts:
(1) Events in Venezuela happened shortly after the announcement of the withdrawal of the US troops from Syria – in fact, capitulation and recognition of loss, which was awkwardly presented as “leaving after a loud victory over terrorism”, which, however, very few people believed. The events in Venezuela were also a diversion to “smooth out” the impression of the – in fact – surrender of the United States in Syria.
(2) The events unleashed by the United States in Venezuela, were an attempt including to revenge for the obvious loss in Syria. The image of the “omnipotent and exceptional” superpower, badly stained by a loss in Syria, was to be “restored” by a bold, arrogant and decisive “victory” in Venezuela. Such a “victory” should have been a kind of slap in the face of Russia (first of all), especially considering the recent arrival of two strategic Russian bombers to the USA’s very backyard (which frightened US officials nervously called “obsolete exhibits of the museum”).
(3) In case of successful implementation of the plan for “regime change” in Venezuela, it will become a springboard for further attacks on Nicaragua and Cuba. In particular, Nicaragua is not satisfied with the United States, including the fact that the country plans to build a channel that is an alternative to the Panama Canal. Must know that construction project is sponsored by the Chinese…
And although at the moment the financing of the project is frozen, the Americans cannot allow even the theoretical possibility of implementing this landmark project.
(4) Control of Venezuelan oil is only partially the goal of the current “regime change” campaign in Venezuela. Here is an excerpt from a very interesting article on this topic:
In December 2017, Venezuela announced the creation of its own cryptocurrency called Petromoneda. The main commodity that was supposed to be sold in cryptocurrency was Venezuelan oil, which the Maduro government announced as the main means of ensuring Petromoneda. The transfer of the oil trade to cryptocurrency undermines the foundations of the dollar, which were based on its use in hydrocarbon transactions.
Therefore, the American financial groups immediately applied the entire set of technologies in order to undermine the authority of the new settlement instrument at the start. As a result, after Venezuela began to issue Petromoneda in February 2018, an inflation mechanism was launched against cryptocurrency. The US could use it freely, because they were the main buyers of Venezuelan hydrocarbons. By the end of the year, the cost of Petromoneda fell by 1300000%.
In this situation, there were two choices. Or to refuse to use cryptocurrency, or to back it up with something more substantial – for example, with gold. At the same time finding new contractors who would accept Petromoneda for payment.
Rejection of cryptocurrency was an unacceptable option for Venezuela, because it meant surrender to Washington. The second option was blocked by the Western clans themselves. The entire gold reserve of Caracas was in the custody of the Bank of England and Deutsche Bank, and they flatly refused to return it to the legitimate authorities of the country. As for its own gold mining, there were deposits in the country, albeit small (about 700 tons), but allowing to exchange Petromoneda for a yellow metal in the presence of willing (it was assumed that this would be enough for 25 tons annually). The problem was only in one thing: Canadians were initially involved in the development of gold mines [in Venezuela], and they not only failed to fulfill their obligations, but also blocked mining. This was done with the help of a claim to international arbitration of the World Bank.
The situation was saved by the support of Russia and China. At the end of 2018, Maduro received an agreement from Moscow and Beijing to invest several billion dollars in gold mining. This made it possible to fully repay debts for lawsuits and to begin the legal development of the [Venezuelan] gold mines.
In addition, a pool was formed of countries that agreed to operate in trade with Venezuela using Petromoneda: Russia, China, Turkey, Iran, South Africa, North Korea, Cuba and others. This gave Maduro a reason to declare that from 2019 “all oil products of Venezuela will be sold for Petromoneda”.
Moreover, the actions of the leadership of the Bolivarian Republic provoked a chain reaction. On January 19, 2019 Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates announced plans to create a joint cryptocurrency, which also “will be provided with their oil resources”.
As a result, the United States found itself in a hopeless situation. Or they do nothing, and then the dollar will soon finally turn into a useless wrapper, which will be difficult to sell even to African tribes. Or they go for an international aggravation. Initiate a coup d’état in Venezuela and draw the world into war. In Washington, they chose the latter.
(5) I do not believe in the possibility of the US starting a military operation against Venezuela. It doesn’t matter – directly, or through Colombia. Both options are unreal. Venezuela has a strong large army with good weapons (including many Russian weapons). The USA will be afraid to fight against such an adversary. A coup can only succeed in one case – if the US succeeds in doing what they did in Iraq in 2003. Mean, to bribe army generals and other high ranking military in order to “remove” possible resistance and to take the side of the “new president”.
(6) I will not discuss all the previous mistakes of the Maduro government, which undoubtedly bears a part of the blame for the current situation in the country. After all, who in their right mind, aware of the complexity of relations with the West, will keep his money in Western banks? What were they just thinking about? However, the point is not in past mistakes, but in the fact that Maduro not only does not correct them (at least it is not noticeable), but also makes new mistakes. A brazen impostor appears next to you, challenges you, calls himself the president, openly talks with your army about switching to his side, expresses his full readiness to take control of your finances. Insolent fellow does not even try to hide that he is a protege of the Western forces, extremely hostile to you. In addition, it is clear that he is breaking the law of the country. With all this, Maduro does not even try to stop all this and arrest the pest! Unbelievable. Guaido should have been in jail for a long time. But Maduro for some reason allows this pest to do all what this pest does. Maduro still allows him to do all this! Unbelievable. Incredible carelessness, which can cost Maduro dearly…
Posted by: alaff | Jan 31 2019 23:16 utc | 59
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