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Turkey Rejects New U.S. Syria Plan – Humiliates John Bolton
On Sunday National Security Advisor John Bolton tried to set conditions for a U.S. retreat from Syria:
Bolton, on a trip to Israel and Turkey, said he would stress in talks with Turkish officials, including President Tayyip Erdogan, that Kurdish forces must be protected.
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Asked whether a U.S. withdrawal would not take place in Syria until Turkey guaranteed the Kurdish fighters would be safe, Bolton said: “Basically, that’s right.”
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"We don’t think the Turks ought to undertake military action that’s not fully coordinated with and agreed to by the United States at a minimum,” Bolton said, “so they don’t endanger our troops, but also so that they meet the president’s requirement that the Syrian opposition forces that have fought with us are not endangered.”
Turkey was not amused. The YPG Kurds, which the U.S. uses in Syria as cannon fodder to fight the Islamic State, are the same organization as the PKK which acts as a terrorist group in Turkey. Turkey can not allow that group to exist on its border as an organized military force.
When Bolton landed in Turkey today he received a very cold welcome. The planned meeting with the Turkish President Erdogan did not take place. The meeting John Bolton, Joint Chief of Staff Joe Dunford and Syria envoy James Jeffrey held with the Turkish National Security Advisor Ibrahim Kalin was downgraded and took less than two hours. A planned joint press conference was canceled.
The U.S. delegation did not look happy, or even united, when it left the presidential compound in Ankara.
via Vivian Salaman – bigger
Shortly after Bolton's meeting Erdogan held a speech to his parliament group. It was a slap in Bolton's face. Via Raqip Solyu:
Erdogan says he cannot accept or swallow the messages given by US National Security Advisor Bolton in Israel.
Erdoğan, “YPG/PKK are terrorists. Some say ‘don’t touch them because they are Kurds’. This is unacceptable. Everyone can be a terrorist. They could be Turkmans. Their ethnicity doesn’t matter. Bolton made a big mistake by his statements”
Erdogan on the Syria policy chaos in Washington: "As it happened in the past, despite our clear agreement with Trump on US withdrawal from Syria, different voices started to come out from different levels of the American administration."
Erdogan says Turkey continues to rely on Trump’s view on Syria and his decisiveness on the pullout. "We, largely, completed our military preparations against ISIS in accordance with our agreement with Trump"
"Saying that Turkey targets Syrian Kurds, which is a lie itself, is the lowest, most dishonorable, ugliest, most banal slander ever" Erdogan added.
Erdogan's communication director gave the last kick:
Fahrettin Altun @fahrettinaltun – 14:17 utc – 8 Jan 2019
U.S. National Security Adviser @AmbJohnBolton held talks with his Turkish counterpart @ikalin1 at the Presidential Complex in Ankara today.
I hope that he got a taste of the world famous Turkish hospitality during his visit.
An editorial in the Erdogan aligned Daily Sabah called Bolton's ideas a soft coup against Trump.
And with that, Bolton was humiliated and the issue of the U.S. retreat from Syria kicked back to Trump.
We have seen a similar scheme in U.S. negotiations with North Korea. Trump made a four step deal with Kim Jong Un. Then the borg in form of Secretary of State Pompeo tried to change the deal, and demanded that North Korea fulfills step four before the U.S. will take step one, two and three. When he then flew to North Korea he was ignored by Kim Jong Un and only met with lower level staff. It required Trump's intervention to keep the talks alive.
Erdogan likewise had a deal with Trump about the U.S. retreat from Syria. Bolton tried to change the deal, to add conditions and to prolong the timeline. When he arrived in Ankara he was not only ignored by Erdogan, but scolded. It will require Trumps intervention to bring the issue back onto its tracks.
If Trump does not move, Erdogan is likely to seek a military escalation. His army will probably fire artillery on this or that Kurdish position near the Turkish border. It may even invade a few towns. Not necessarily to hold them, but to increase the pressure on the U.S. occupation force.
Turkey originally planned to first take Manbij on the western side of the Euphrates. But Manbij is blocked by Syrian troops, now reinforced by Russian military police patrols. Erdogan will not dare to attack them.
Erdogan wants the U.S. to leave Syria and to take with it the arms it handed to the YPG to fight ISIS. He wants the Syrian government to retake northeast Syria and to bring the Kurds under control. That would eliminate the danger to Turkey.
Since Trump announced that U.S. troops would soon leave Syria the fight against the remaining ISIS forces near the Iraqi border increased in pace. ISIS' territorial hold is now down to two or three villages. Sunday night it used another spat of bad weather due to which the U.S. air force could not provide air support to the Kurdish led proxy force that fights ISIS. An ISIS counter attack ensued and killed some 25 of the U.S. supported forces. This was likely the last significant battle for ISIS. The Islamic State is down to a few hundred fighters who have no way to escape. They will be bombed to smithereens.
In Idleb governorate al-Qaeda aka Hayat Tahrir al Sham continues to consolidate its hold. It issued several ultimatums to Ahrar al-Sham and other 'moderate rebel' groups that still hold parts of the area. When it is finished with the elimination of its competition it will likely shell Aleppo city and attack the Syrian government lines. That will restart the war over Idleb.
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The last time the Syrian government planned to cleanse Idleb of the Jihadis, the U.S. intervened and threatened to attack the Syrian army. Russia forged the Astana agreement under which Turkey agreed to eliminate HTS. It failed to fulfill its promise. The Syrian army is thus free to solve the problem.
But what will the White House do? Will Bolton (should he still be NSA by then) press for defending al-Qaeda? Will Trump agree to that?
He wants the Syrian government to retake northeast Syria and to bring the Kurds under control. That would eliminate the danger to Turkey.
It is difficult to say what exactly is in Erdogan’s mind. Maybe he really wants official control of Damascus over the mentioned territories, but so far, in practice, he has demonstrated a desire to tear a piece of territory from Syria in favor of Turkey. There have already been a lot of publications (at least in the Russian media) on this subject, back in 2016. For example:
June 2016:
For more than half a year, the Turkish leadership has systematically shifted the state border of Syria, violating the territorial integrity of a sovereign country. The construction of a five-meter-high concrete wall with barbed wire deep in the Syrian territory is in full swing. Construction work goes along the northern border of the SAR at a distance of 800–900 meters deep into Syria along five Turkish provinces — Kilis, Gaziantep, Sanliurfa, Mardin and Hatay. The total length of the facility is about 100 km, of which almost 3/4 have already been built. Source
April 2017:
Since November 2015, Turkey has been building a wall along its border with Syria. Of the planned 911 kilometers, about two hundred have been fenced off. Construction is simultaneously being conducted at several sites. In the Kamishli district of the Syrian province of Al-Hasakah between Abu Racin and Ras El-Ain, the Turkish wall has captured part of the railway. In the Harim region of the Syrian province of Aleppo, the Turks seized hundreds of hectares of agricultural land from local Kurdish and Arab peasants with a wire fence. Source
May 2017:
Turkey, without the permission of the official Damascus, is building its own military base in the Syrian Jerablus. The base is designed for the presence of 2,500 Turkish troops on it and the deployment of communications, electronic warfare and air defense. At the same time, representatives of the Turkish special services arrived in the province of Idlib to ensure the safety of the hospitals deployed there. Based on the data obtained it is clear that the issue of the occupation of the northern territories of Syria has long been resolved and approved in Turkey. Source
November 2018:
In the spring of 2018, Turkish forces as a result of Operation “Olive Branch” occupied a number of territories in northwestern Syria, including the large Kurdish canton of Afrin in the province of Aleppo. Officially, Turkey does not recognize the fact of its occupation of part of the Syrian territories, referring to the fact that in the same Afrin and its surroundings there are no Turkish troops. Here Ankara is cunning. Yes, there are no Turkish soldiers in the canton, but there are many Islamist groups like the Free Syrian Army, most of whom work in the interests of Turkey and represent its interests in this part of the region. Source
December 2018:
According to the plan of the demilitarized zone, Erdogan promised to eliminate the most radical militants in Idlib, which he did not do. Now Erdogan organized a campaign to assimilate the population in the territories under his control. Take, for example, the cities of Afrin, Azaz and Al-Bab. In these cities, street names have long been changed to Turkish, their own government has been introduced from among the most pro-Turkish oppositionists, and in schools teaching is carried out using Turkish textbooks. In these cities, even their own “police stations” are created, and field commanders of bandit formations are in the role of “sheriffs”. Naturally, it is not “policemen” who “serve” there. In general, while there is time, Erdogan conducts the good old assimilation “in Ottoman style.” Source
While the Syrian people, with the support of Russia and Iran, are trying to drive out terrorists and other armed rabble from their country, the northern neighbor of Syria is trying to annex new territories “without noise”. Now a significant part of Syria, the provinces of Idlib and partially Aleppo, are under the actual occupation of the “Ottoman Sultanate”. For this, Erdogan uses not the regular [Turkish] army, but the groups of illegal armed formations under control, who manage in the territories under their control. The situation for Syria is aggravated by the fact that, while its armed forces are busy destroying terrorists on the front lines, in the rear of the occupied provinces Turkey is actively working to assimilate the population. Under the control of the Ottomans, local self-government bodies are created, Syrian textbooks in schools are replaced with Turkish (so far with Arabic translation), and offices of various Turkish firms and companies are opened. In 2018, Turkey organized the issuance of passports to residents of northern Aleppo and Idlib. Starting next year, passports will take effect, and it can be considered that the process of assimilation of the Syrian population will take a full-scale. Source
January 2019:
As a result of a series of military operations of the Turkish army, with the support of the former “Free Syrian Army”, unofficially, a number of settlements and cities in the north of the Syrian Arab Republic passed under the control of Ankara. Almost immediately, pro-Turkish militants, under the leadership of representatives of the special services of the former Ottoman Empire, began to establish their own rules. Among other things, offices of numerous Turkish companies were opened in the cities almost immediately, ranging from post offices to the commercial organizations. In addition, all positions in local self-government bodies, government, law and order were replaced by former field commanders of the Free Syrian Army, who are known to work in the interests of Turkey under the strict supervision of representatives of its special services. As a result, local residents, the indigenous population, are forced to live and work under the new laws, which differ sharply from the legal acts adopted by the Syrian government. Source
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Yes, Turkey will probably agree to the power of Damascus over the territories, which is now controlled by the Kurds. However, those Syrian territories and settlements that were occupied by Turkey are unlikely to return to Syria. Though, will see…
Posted by: alaff | Jan 10 2019 10:54 utc | 139
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