Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
October 30, 2018

How Trump Is Winning The Midterm Elections

What are the chances that the mid-term elections in the United States, one week from now, will change the majority in the House or Senate?

The Democrats need to pick up 23 seats in the House to gain a majority. Of the 48 seats that are in play only 16 seem likely to change in their favor. In the Senate they need to take gain two seats to become a majority, but at least one of the Democrats' current seats is endangered and polls for the other 9 seats that potentially might change show a tossup.

My personal hunch is that the Republicans will keep both houses and may even gain a few seats.

The U.S. economy is doing relatively well. The recent drop in share prices points to a more mixed outlook from here on, but so far everything held up.

The Democrats have neither a program nor a leadership that incites to vote for them. They wasted two years with hyping a non-existent Russiagate that no one but Washington insiders and the media cares about. Did they actually oppose anything Trump did? They tried a #metoo stunt around a Supreme Court nomination but how effective was that?

The Democrats also failed to get rid of Hillary Clinton, or at least to shut her up. How can she, the most hated woman in the U.S.,  suggest to run again for president just a few days before the mid-terms? (Her candidacy would give Trump the easiest re-election ever.)

Trump continues to be an excellent salesman. He knows how to get and maintain attention. Each day he makes some outrageous claim or acts on some hot button issue. This has two effects: it is red meat for his base, and it gives major media attention to his politics.

Over the last days he offered a 10% tax cut for the middle class, bashed the media, suggested that house of worship should have armed guards, bashed the media more, sent troops to the border to stop a migrant caravan, bashed the media again, and attacked birthright citizenship for children of illegal immigrants. He surely has a list of seven other issues to fill the daily news cycles until the election.

All of the above lets me expect a higher turnout of voters who lean Republican than of those who lean towards Democrats. The higher turnout wins.

With a continued majority in both houses Trump should have an easy run during the next presidential elections.

In international politics many hoped they could wait out Trump, and that by 2021 everything would go 'back to normal'. That was always the wrong strategy. Unless something unexpected happens Trump is here to stay. When he leaves a new 'normal' will have evolved and the 'normal' of 2016 will no longer exist.

Posted by b on October 30, 2018 at 19:22 UTC | Permalink

next page »

Fortunately, mid-terms aren't about Trump or whoever's POTUS. They revolve around the #1 domestic issue--the economy--and as the articles I pointed to on the latest open thread about Trump's wrongheaded tariffs show, the economy is suffering thanks in part to his Unilateral Trade War. Congresscritters opposed to the Trade War will do well, while those in favor will do poorly. In its economic context, the drive for Medicare For All is favored by a majority from both major parties and will greatly help those campaigning for it--almost exclusively Democrats. The election's a week from today; I'll mail my ballot later this afternoon.

Posted by: karlof1 | Oct 30 2018 19:40 utc | 1

A Republican win to retain their majority in both the House and Senate will be another upset. The incumbent party typically loses in a mid-term. Obama and the Democrats got whipped in his first mid-term. Typically a mid-term is not a national election and instead many local races with their own dynamics. Trump has made it into a referendum on his first 2 years. He's got a lot to talk about from tax cuts, to trade - a new NAFTA, tariffs on China, two supreme court appointments, a quiescent North Korea, and the Mueller witch hunt. What do the Democrats have - Nancy Pelosi, Chuckie Schumer, Billary and Obama? What program are they pitching other than more identity politics?

It seems the odds makers are giving the Democrats the probability of winning the House and losing seats in the Senate. Heck, Nate Silver is giving a 80% probability that the Dems will win the House. Now, we all recall his 90% probability that Hillary would win the day before the presidential election.

Trump as he did during the presidential campaign is running hard with well attended rallies across the battleground states.

If the Republicans retain their majority, Trump will be on top. The vast majority of the Republican establishment with the exception of Romney will kowtow to him. See the change in Lindsey Graham since McCain passed on. With guys like Jeff Flake and Bob Corker out, Trump could emerge even stronger among the Republican caucus. Mueller will be toast in this case and it is quite possible that the conspirators at the FBI, DOJ, CIA, British & Australian intelligence could be exposed by a newly invigorated House GOP.

Posted by: ab initio | Oct 30 2018 19:58 utc | 2

"suggested that house of warships should have armed guards,".. I take it that's a typo

Otherwise a good take on Trumpistan. The last sentence "When he leaves a new 'normal' will have evolved and the 'normal' of 2016 will no longer exist."
Hopefully the new normal will see a failed Trump Kissinger plan to replace the petro-dollar scam with global energy dominance resulting in a failed US.

Posted by: Peter AU 1 | Oct 30 2018 20:00 utc | 3

If your predictions are correct, I fear for the future. I watched the first season of American Horror story and thought it was brilliant. The current year, not so much. If Trump and the Repuplicans are given a green light by the American people, the world will shudder in horror.

That is not to say the Dems have given any kind of credible alternative, shame on them.

Posted by: steve | Oct 30 2018 20:00 utc | 4

Here is an interesting look at the health of America's democracy compared to that of other nations:

While both sides of the political spectrum in the United States have expressed their concerns over the fairness of the upcoming mid-term elections (Democrats over vote suppression and Republicans over voter fraud) and Washington as a whole clearly stating its belief that Russia, China and Iran are meddling in the 2018 electoral circus, the fact that democracy itself is under threat in America is cleverly never mentioned by either side.

Posted by: Sally Snyder | Oct 30 2018 20:10 utc | 5

Fortunately, the midterms are not about Trump ..the number one issue revolves Freedom of expression, right to equal access and right to traverse the internet without being spied on, without having your computer invaded and destroyed, and the right to say what one wants to on social networks and the Internet and on the streets of America. The right to publish your own stuff, or the right to view, read, and understand what others have to say with intervention or blockage by the search engine giants or the social media.

The number one issue in America is How can Americans remain free of the tyrannies the Oligarchs intend to persuade their Governments to impose.. .. Few Americans have enough money or care enough about having money to make the economy number 1. The issue is honesty in the elected officials, the Freedom and the right to produce a TV show or a web site and to have it distributed on the media; its about the right to produce a web site and engage an audience with it, and to have unfiltered un denied search engines inclusion. The right to be a WoPo reporter and not be murdered by a clown prince? The right to travel from one nation to another, the right to be heard in court rooms, the right to carry a weapon, the right to be treated as innocent unless and until proven guilty of a reasonable and just law that makes in-tolerate behaviors a crime The right to be educated, and the right to have your children educated in equal measure to all other children.

Posted by: snake | Oct 30 2018 20:10 utc | 6

"Trump continues to be an excellent salesman. He knows how to get and maintain attention. Each day he makes some outrageous claim or acts on some hot button issue. This has two effects: it is red meat for his base, and it gives major media attention to his politics."

Spot on, b!

Scott Adams noted this during the presidential election and called it "persuasiveness". He just pointed out the brilliant move by Trump on birth citizenship for children of illegal immigrants. Trump knows he can't unilaterally change the constitution with an executive order. But he's getting a lot of media cycles because of it. Combine that with the sending of the military to the southern border in response to a threatened "invasion" by an organized central american horde, allowing him to reinforce his anti-illegal immigration stand that helped him win the Republican nomination.

In these close House elections he needs a higher GOP turnout. The Republican base is more interested in issues like immigration and the Fake News media. Of course a currently strong economy and the chipping away of the overwhelming black support for Democrats by making a big deal about the lowest black & hispanic unemployment along with Kanye are all examples of how he's using his media skills to his advantage.

Posted by: ab initio | Oct 30 2018 20:29 utc | 7

Sad to say, only dirtbags are still pretending at this point Clinton lost the election, instead of the Electoral College. No doubt Trumpists want the candidate to be Joe Biden, who really would be a guaranteed victory for any human opponent.

And it is only the most resolutely smug and superficial who can keep a straight face about how well things are going for most people. The notion the stock market is the barometer of the economy is nearly as hateful as it is stupid.

It does all depend on turnout of course. A low turnout can replicate Trump's phony victory, where fewer total votes win more. No doubt the OP is pleased to think about how voter suppression can lead the way for AfD. The OP is right that the Democratic Party is quite determined to try to run to the right of Trump as much as possible. And it's strongest determination is to reject any left wing appeals. Yes, it is indeed possible the Democrats can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Nonetheless, the belief that it is Trump's stable genius that is whipsawing the media is ludicrous. The rich owners of the media and the rich advertisers have put the media to work for Trump, just like in in the general election. It is also kind of offensive to pretend that Trump has made this election all about him, when the more or less universal agreement is not to rile the proles with real alternatives or real criticism of policy. This tacit agreement is one of the rare instances that show thieves' honor might really be a thing. On the other hand, since no Trumpist will ever concede that a Democratic Party victory in the House serves as a referendum on Trump, any outcome will serve to strengthen Trump's disdain for mere elections. But I guess that's a selling point from Trumpists?

Posted by: steven t johnson | Oct 30 2018 20:32 utc | 8

I think you may be right, b. The Dems (Dims?) have done absolutely everything wrong since the last election. They're now trying to turn this election into a referendum on the last one ... and I think they're going to lose again. It's time for them to quit obsessing over Trump and begin the hard work of trying to repair their relationship with 'flyover country'. Otherwise, it could be a long, long time before they're returned power again.

Posted by: Seamus Padraig | Oct 30 2018 20:34 utc | 9


Maybe not:

Posted by: paulmeli | Oct 30 2018 20:34 utc | 10

Probably I'm being overly optimistic, but if Republicans keep control of the House and Senate I think that increases the likelihood of Bernie abandoning the Democrats and either joining the Green party or forming a progressive third party. The Democrats will be of no more use to him and will be trying to marginalize him anyway. I've been following Bernie for many years and it's only been over the past six or seven years that Bernie has been making nice with the Democrats. Before that, nobody could bash the Democratic establishment like Bernie. He would be tempted to pound the final nail into the Democratic coffin. There would be little to lose and much to gain.

Posted by: Chas | Oct 30 2018 20:45 utc | 11


"In its economic context, the drive for Medicare For All is favored by a majority from both major parties and will greatly help those campaigning for it--almost exclusively Democrats."

But not the Democratic National Party, nor the DCCC, nor any of its preferred candidates. None of these support it.

Posted by: WJ | Oct 30 2018 20:53 utc | 12

On Clinton: the more she squawks the more republicans vote and the less democrats vote. That is my theory. This loser takes the fire out of everyone that counts other than her dimishing blind adherents. I think sometimes that Trump should lock her up for the greatest national security breach of all time but having her come out now blatantly proposing a rerun for president is such good luck for Trump.

She should be tried for her email breach of security just the same. And Trump and company tried for being hucksters and shaking down investors. Bad luck USA you have been mugged for the past 6 decades or whatever. Can't see much chance for change either with your totally kaput election system. Losers!

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Oct 30 2018 20:53 utc | 13

Democrats seem to be doing everything in their power to lose. I suspect a secret pact by both parties to take turns every 8 years. Yes-collusion. As in the corporate world in many industries, competition is recognized as counterproductive and exists only in an illusory sense at the macro level. Not to say there is no competition at a micro level over inconsequential issues for illusory effect.

False flags and MSM propaganda, not to mention campaign finance dollars sway election results in US as they do in many other countries that the global elite have an interest in.

Frankly, Satan himself could get elected in he was backed by the elite. He (or she) would fit in with either party. The electorate has lost any moral compass and sense of reality due to the ongoing cultural and informational wars directed at them. It seems some would like to see an all out civil war break out which of course justify martial law and wartime censorship. The end game would probably be redoing the constitution and eliminate all rights (pretty much already eliminated but it takes a lot of energy getting around the law that could be spent elsewhere).

Posted by: Pft | Oct 30 2018 20:56 utc | 14

to #3

I was about to remark about that myself. Wonder if the author isn't using some translation and/or speech recognition software to write his posts. Obviously the output was acceptable to spell checkers.

In general, I believe the Democrats In Office are perfectly happy with what Trump has been doing. Here in Indiana I have the choice between two perfect a$$es for Senator. Despite despising everything he stands for, I'm going to vote for Braun because if I must be represented by a jacka$$, I'd prefer the man have an "R" beside his name.

Posted by: Zachary Smith | Oct 30 2018 20:56 utc | 15

I'm hoping for a Republican clean sweep, I want them all front and center when the good ship America goes down to the abyss. Hopefully we won't take the world with us.

Posted by: Arlo | Oct 30 2018 21:03 utc | 16

With all the voting machine fraud and voter suppression, it's pretty clear Chump will win. The United States should just scrap the electoral process and allow corporations, christians zionists and crazy dominionists to run the republic into the ground. The front goy in charge of the executive is doing a great job dismantling what's left of american power. The stock market will continue to crater and the debt trap hitting in 2019 will force the orange grifter to pursue savage austerity cuts. So much for his base of opioid degenerates and blue collar workers expecting massive infrastructure investments. Deplorables will rue the day they voted for a conmen. Will they ? Apparently, the constitution is only sacred when rights to own engines of deaths are concerned... There's always rodrigo, laquesha and mooslims to scapegoat.

Posted by: Augustin L | Oct 30 2018 21:05 utc | 17

One of the best compilations I've ever seen.


— Mike (@Fuctupmind) October 29, 2018

Posted by: ab initio | Oct 30 2018 21:05 utc | 18

Sanctions on Iran will make Israel happy....though they don't like him making an exception for SWIFT.

Bashing China is proving popular with his base too. Perhaps they expect it to result in more jobs. It will certainly result in higher prices at Walmart.

That said China will probably capitulate in the upcoming trade talks.

Posted by: dh | Oct 30 2018 21:08 utc | 19

My personal hunch is that the Republicans will keep both houses and may even gain a few seats.

That's a fair prediction, so I think I'll put my own neck on the chopping block. In most places in the US the "voting" is done by electronic devices which are easily hackable. Whoever can hire the most capabable hackers will get the result they desire. I'm postulating that Trump has POed a lot of corporations (among other moneybags) and they want to crimp his freedom of action. That deduction could be quite wrong but I'm going to declare the worthless Democrats will take the House and do relatively well in the Senate. My link is quite old, but apparently for a good while Braun wasn't trying very hard at all to win in Indiana while Donnelly had been on a 'barnstorming' rampage. I don't like either one of them, but that ol' backstabbing Joe might keep his job isn't out of the question.

GOP frets about prospects for picking up Indiana Senate seat

Posted by: Zachary Smith | Oct 30 2018 21:15 utc | 20

Does it matter who wins? They are both fronts for the same party - the War Party. The only difference is which facile slogan one side throws at the other. Trump is a fascist? The US has been fascist (ruled by the corporations, for the corporations) since 1913, the formation of the Federal Reserve? Since Eisenhower's warning about the MIC in 1961? Since the corporates launched the silent coup in the late 1970's (There Is No Alternative!) to take over the West?

The Americans themselves - there is a book about them - Milton Meyer's 'They Thought They Were Free'.

Posted by: Yonatan | Oct 30 2018 21:20 utc | 21

@ Posted by: paulmeli | Oct 30, 2018 4:34:18 PM | 10

I read the article in the link, and I'm sorry to say that to you, but the premise of the author is failed. Here's the problem:

Trump’s position vis-à-vis Beijing is not rocket science. The administration has simply taken the view that a large economy with a trade deficit has greater bargaining power than smaller economies with trade surpluses (in spite of its growth, China is still smaller in market exchange rate terms). By cutting the overall trade deficit, the big deficit country stimulates domestic growth and employment via import substitution. Meanwhile, the surplus nation loses a big chunk of its foreign market, leaving it with an overbuilt export sector. Moreover, it is politically easier to build new factories in the former deficit country than to have mass layoffs and idle factories in the former surplus country. That is what the president means when he says that “trade wars are good and easy to win.”


In the interim, no doubt China’s leadership will continue to react to U.S. trade pressures by making life increasingly difficult for some U.S. firms with extensive Chinese operations. Its policymakers will also continue to offset the adverse consequences of the trade shock by retaining its existing policies of expanding credit and infrastructure spending to support economic growth, adding to their debt build-up in the process. Beijing may continue to allow the RMB to decline to offset the impact of rising tariffs, although here China’s economic mandarins have a fine line to tread, as too much devaluation could engender more capital flight from the country, turning a managed currency decline into a rout, which would be highly inflationary (and, hence, politically destabilizing). Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has also recently put their monetary authorities on notice not to pursue further this gambit (the Treasury Secretary can always declare China a “currency manipulator,” which would open the way for further retaliatory action on the trade front).

There are two fatal flaws with this logic:

1) it is patently false: it is much easier to lay off and cut costs than build infrastructure. To say manufacturing will magically pop up in the USA is pure nationalist dellusion, unadultered nonsense. The only reason the USA is still having some growth is because it still is the financial superpower, so it can export crises to the periphery. Here's a much more sober analysis of the American current situation:

2) China's RMB devaluation didn't just combat Trump's tariffs: it erased them. China's trade surplus with the USA has grown since Trump took office.

Since your author didn't bring any data, I'll simply assume he is an ideologue.

The only reason China is apparently trying to "appease" Trump is because peace is on its side: a hot war in the Pacific is everything the USA wants, in order to boost its industrial base through the military complex. The Chinese are buying time simply because time is on their side, not because they are afraid of the alleged "trade war".

Posted by: VK | Oct 30 2018 21:20 utc | 22

“The U.S. economy is doing relatively well. The recent drop in share prices points to a more mixed outlook from here on, but so far everything held up.”

This is sad. I mean many analysts attributed Hillary Clintons loss to her saying the same thing while Trump and his supporters were rightly saying the metrics for measuring the economy wete false and not representative of the real economy. Now they say the same thing and nobody remembers.

Unemployment?. Labor participation rates are the lowest in 40 years when many women were still able to stay at home as housewives. Inflation? Its only low if you dont measure the cost of housing, insurance, medical, college and interest payments accurately if at all. Stock market and asset bubbles?. Does nothing for you unless you sell before the bubbles pop. Higher home assessments mean higher property taxes. GDP? Its increase is largely due to the increasing debt. Debt is money. Those with too much debt soon run out of money to pay the debt.

The median worker, those still in the work force, makes under 29,000 dollars a year. Thats why households need more than 1 worker when 40 years ago they only needed 1 worker and could afford to raise 6 kids and send them to college without debt

Fundamental ignorance of the economy and money, thanks to MSM, prevents meaningful discussion of solutions

Posted by: Pft | Oct 30 2018 21:30 utc | 23

Fucking useless Dems couldn't be arsed to make a 1/10th of the effort they put against Kavanaugh when it came to opposing Trump's insane tax cuts, and these assholes care more about Stormy Daniels than about Trump destroying the INF treaty. Frankly, everyone in the opposition to Trump should consider them as traitors whose efforts have undermined the so-called (and quite fake) "Resistance" for the last 18 months.
So, indeed, I don't see them winning either House.

Posted by: Clueless Joe | Oct 30 2018 21:59 utc | 24

The Chump economy is a con job bubble that's about to pop. The continued financialization has reached peak earnings so there's no fundamentals driven upside left. The bond market yields are now high enough to dampen enthusiasm for inherently risky and unproductive stocks in real economy. I have a preponderance of credible sources working in physical economy telling me about trade war effects that will be felt next quarter.
Central banks are now curtailing - ending their quantitative easing programs have reduced liquidity in the financial system (inevitable slowdown in 2019 coupled with a debt trap stemming from Trump tax cuts - austerity in the pipeline. Our markets are catching up to the rest of the world's market slump. Corporations had to limit their stock buy-backs in the pre-earnings season blackout. Smart money has been selling all year, and this finally overwhelmed dumb money buying the dips;
Smart money is discounting the coming recession in the markets, deplorables ain't seen nothing yet, what's coming will make 2008 look like Childs play. Who cares stable genius controls the courts, the executive, etc. I wonder what conspiracy theory deplorables will cook up when shtf: Soros, Obombo and Hillary. Derp... The nationalist front goy will do what he does best bankruptcy for the commons and bailout for his hedge fund hyena friends.

Posted by: Augustin L | Oct 30 2018 22:04 utc | 25

There's a basic rule: the intelligent middle and upper classes (i.e. in this case, those who are revolted by Trump) are not the majority, and will always lose in elections.

There's a good example in Iran. The Iranian upper class are all anti-Islam, but the Islamic regime is still there, after 40 years. There was a revolt in 2009, but it failed. The popular vote is still for the Islamists.

Posted by: Laguerre | Oct 30 2018 22:05 utc | 26

"All of the above lets me expect a higher turnout of voters who lean Republican than of those who lean towards Democrats. The higher turnout wins."

I'd like to see a couple million turnout to surround DC and request a reset.

Posted by: ken | Oct 30 2018 22:09 utc | 27

I'm with Clueless Joe @24

"Fucking useless Dems couldn't be arsed to make a 1/10th of the effort they put against Kavanaugh when it came to opposing Trump's insane tax cuts, and these assholes care more about Stormy Daniels than about Trump destroying the INF treaty....."

it's largely a choice now between Stupid and Stupider.....and we all lose, that is the 90-95% who have not benefited at all since the great recession started in 2008. & it matters to me very little what the so called macro-economic picture looks like, a quick look around at our lives and our communities tells us that something is deeply wrong with the direction (and depth) of not only our society but our entire world and species

we already live in an Idiotocracy which poltically is run by the hired hands of the Oligarchs who care and do next to nothing for the workers, the poor, the homeless, the disabled and disadvantaged, the middle classes, and most importantly for Mother Nature. we are so fucked by Capitalism/Industrialization on steroids and the prospects at this point in natural and human history so bleak that it will in effect take a 'miracle' for the human species to still be alive and well in 30-60 years...

in that perspective, it matters but little who wins this election as the vast majority of the population, like in any casino or gambling establishment, loses

the house wins and the house here is what Gore Vidal called the War Party at other times the Property Party

Posted by: michaelj72 | Oct 30 2018 22:41 utc | 28

I am a big fan of Trumponomics, and its great to see The Don showing some big form coming down the final stretch. But really, the big fella really shouldn't trouble himself too much here...just look at the Dems...they are a parody of themselves at this dont have to soar like an eagle when you are surrounded by geese... game over, move along, nothing to see here except some orange lad in a shouting match with tumbeweeds.

Trumponomics 2020...! Trump TV 2024...! Get onboard guys... the great isolation is just beginning.

Posted by: MadMax2 | Oct 30 2018 23:12 utc | 29

@24 Clueless Joe | Oct 30, 2018 5:59:15 PM

"undermined the so-called (and quite fake) "Resistance" "

This is an immensely astute observation. Now consider this behavior a 'feature' and not a 'bug' and you're not so clueless after all. :)

Posted by: b4real | Oct 30 2018 23:16 utc | 30

The Dems are owned by the same class of people so it really doesn't matter which funding arm of the corporate fascist party wins any election. The owners know that after the ponzi blows up no one will vote retardlican and that only leave the other funding arm of the corporate fascist party to "vote" for. This makes people think they're actually choosing when in reality they are just picking which knife will get stuck in their collective backs.

Posted by: Orville | Oct 30 2018 23:18 utc | 31


I Bought Used Voting Machines on eBay for $100 Apiece. What I Found Was Alarming

With my tinfoil hat firmly in place, I'll speculate a lot of pre-election blather and hype is nothing more than preparation (of the deplorables of both parties) for the pre-planned results.

Posted by: Zachary Smith | Oct 30 2018 23:28 utc | 32

In re: Foreign affairs

On a number of occasions, Trump has indicated his desire to see the US end its involvement in Syria, and to cut back on our other overseas interventions.

What do people think of the idea that, after the elections, Trump fires the neo-cons he has heretofore surrounded himself with? People like Bolton et al get shit-canned and replaced with people more in line with what Trump has said he wants to do.

Antoinetta III

Posted by: Antoinetta III | Oct 30 2018 23:36 utc | 33

Trumps just being used like a freandly rebel. Israel will get him to do all the dirty work then take him out ! I saw the look in JFK’s eye ,in G Bush’s eye (911) Obarma’s eye. Trump will have his moment of glory! But if you sell ya soul to the devil! He allways comes to collect.
Metaphorically speaking ! Reminds me of ‘ road runner’ trump thinks he’s the wily cyoati ! but he’s heading for the rock wall painted to look like a road tunnel !!
It won’t end well !
But other than that, I agree with everything ‘b’ has said in this post !

Posted by: Mark2 | Oct 30 2018 23:40 utc | 34

There is no Democratic Party any longer. Democrats are a faux Republican Party. The Republican Party itself was disappeared by neoliberalism in the 80’s. Republicans of yesteryear would not recognize the Republicans of today and this goes for Democrats as well. Basically one party exists, a blue or red dog (pick your color) that waves a globalist neoliberal flag . The red dog presently shows a faux nationalist face but still pursuing globalism with secret treaty negotiations that protect the neoliberal 1% , and continued military/economic warfare abroad. Their so called protectionist tarrifs actually hurt American manufacturers and motivate China to become more independent of the US and remove their capital , as sanctions are doing the same to Russia and EU

Indeed I cant help but suspect Trumps mission is to unite the rest of the World against US hegemony while bringing down the US with a financial collapse allowing the global elite another opportunity to pick up valuable assets cheap. Also perhaps to create a civil war to allow for martial law and more censorship

All of this brings us one step closer to Global Government with a new reserve currency called the Carbon Dollar (credit) and associated carbon tax. The nationalists in the US who might violently oppose this will have been neutered by the imposition of martial law and censorship. The global elite who will control this world government have loyalty to no nation. The whole world is their playground

Posted by: Pft | Oct 30 2018 23:44 utc | 35

@22 VK
Thanks for introducing some reality into this discussion. There are almost no positive fundamentals since Trump took over: a) tourism revenue is down b) oil prices are higher due breaking JCPOA (we still import 5.5M barrels/day),and c) the rest of our trade picture is not any better (our massive federal deficits are causing greater demand for $ to invest in recently higher yielding treasuries, which is among the factors causing the higher dollar, which makes imports cheaper).
The "growth" is just debt leverage at the federal level (obviously) and more subprime / borderline subprime consumer borrowing. Wall Street is also still churning out structured vehicles composed of private equity deal refuse.

Posted by: Schmoe | Oct 30 2018 23:47 utc | 36

Wall Street hedge fund hog, Paul Singer, head of Elliott Management Corp., told his clients in 2014:

“Nobody can predict how long governments can get away with fake growth, fake money, fake jobs, fake financial stability, fake inflation numbers and fake income growth. When confidence is lost, that loss can be severe, sudden and simultaneous across a number of markets and sectors."

Posted by: Lochearn | Oct 31 2018 0:08 utc | 37

Yesterday the NY Times has a good analysis that said few surveys done for many races and a lot of surveys done for only 5. That the race would be tight due to Republican gerrymandering. That Democrats might have numbers but "Republicans have the map". And now we are learning of the schocking election suppression going on which purged half a million voters in Wisconsin, Georgia and one other state I read. And, we also must count on the remote control of election data by Diebold, a Republican outfit which was installed prior to laws outlawing it. The new systems are still hackable and we can be almost assured they will be hacked. That is why there has been no movement to switch to paper ballots.

Posted by: Westcoast | Oct 31 2018 0:30 utc | 38

NY Times said yesterday few polls on most races but a lot of polls on 5. That Democrats might have numbers but Republicans have the map from gerrrymandering. Also, shocking voter suppression numbers for at least 3 states where over half a million voters per state have been purged. Not discussed is still ability to control election results by Diebold in areas where election hardware was installed before 2007 or 2005. These systems are hackable. And that's why there is no movement for paper ballots.

Posted by: Bugalito | Oct 31 2018 0:34 utc | 39

Yesterday SF Chronicle had an article that said Trump is turning archreactionary Orange County in California blue and that if Orange county goes blue the House of Rep could, too. I know Democrats are mobilizing to take Dana Rohrabacher's seat down there.

Posted by: Bugalito | Oct 31 2018 0:39 utc | 40

@dh | Oct 30, 2018 5:08:27 PM | 19

That said China will probably capitulate in the upcoming trade talks.

Keep dreaming.

For all of Trump's loud disdain of fake news, he is not above concocting some fiction too. The Donald claims that the U.S. pays China $500 billion each year and gets back only $200 billion in trade. Do you really think that balance is anywhere close to reality?

Posted by: Cyril | Oct 31 2018 1:01 utc | 41

On one level I have absolutely no interest in which mob of sociopaths is more successful than the other in these seemingly incessant amerikan 'elections'.
However on the other hand I have come to the belief that if the mob of sociopaths in control of the legislature is of a different faction of the amerikan empire party than the mob in the whitehouse, the result is the least bad of the possible permutations.
Dems in the house of, reps, the state house and the whitehouse all at once is as capable of great evil & injustice as rethugs in control of the congress, the senate and the prezdency at the same time.
Splitting the power up in such a fashion that leaves two dogs so busy fighting each other over which mob has the right to the juiciest end of the bone, that they simply don't have time or resources to devote to properly screwing over innocents.
Of course the best situation of all is when the internecine conflict within the amerikan empire gets so involved that money freezes over and the federal government becomes so paralyzed in an ice field of specious nonsense about taxcuts, more military expenditure and slicing and dicing the hoi polloi 'correctly' that all arms of government are 100% impotent.
With any sort of luck that will be the result of this current farce.

Posted by: Debsisdead | Oct 31 2018 1:25 utc | 42


Laughable that you suppose the US economy doing well.

You must believe the likes of Trump, Obama, and Hillary.

Or like Hillary and Trump you don't think workers should be paid.

Now you are correct that Hillary is depressing the vote, and that the US "economy" is okay if you work on Wall Street or for Facebook.

This stunning ignorance on your part. It undercuts anything else you've ever posted.

If you'd limited your point to the Democrats not campaigning on issues generally important to most voters, then you'd have a point. But you didn't say anything like that.

Posted by: Jay | Oct 31 2018 2:12 utc | 43

Astrology of the US midterm election

Posted by: Javed | Oct 31 2018 2:18 utc | 44

I as a US citizen, american born am happy Trump has shook things up. This country was heading down the tubes. ZERO was a disaster. A fiasco and a fraud.
How people can still listen to him I don't know?
He didn't achieve anything!!
Trump, hmmmm...The world can end tomorrow but I won't care cuz Hilary LOST and Obummer was defeated and discredited.
The NWO has been throttled.

Posted by: Fernando Martinez | Oct 31 2018 2:21 utc | 45

@43 Jay

I suspect you're missing the nuance in b's point about the economy. Saying "so far, everything held up" is another way of saying the whole thing didn't crash yet, before the elections.

The article is presenting the talking points, the appearances to the voters, the dynamics, and the odds. Nowhere is it intended to be a treatise on economics. For that matter, nowhere is it intended to be a real presentation of any of the underlying situations that b commonly writes about. It's just about the election.


@b - "Trump is here to stay. When he leaves a new 'normal' will have evolved and the 'normal' of 2016 will no longer exist.

Thanks for that insight. You're right, everything has changed.

Posted by: Grieved | Oct 31 2018 2:27 utc | 46

comparing Trump vs the Democrats isn't so much of a question of which is the lesser evil, but do you want to get stab in the back (Democrats) or the front (Trump). There are differences in their respective policies, but honestly it's mostly academic, Trump and the Republicans will aggressively undermine labour rights vs management, while the Democrats will give empty platitudes to the importance of Labour while opening the door to illegal unskilled labour to drive down labour costs. neither party is pursing the best interests of the working class or the American people as a whole, the best thing about Trump is that he (almost single-handily) humiliated the Republican and Democratic leadership elite and directly addressed the problems facing the American people outside of the two coasts. While I have grave doubts about Trumps ability to actually solve these problems, the pastings he's giving out like candies to the establishment elite might convince someone else in the other parties to adopt more populist economic policies that would help the average American in the hopes of following Trumps success. Lastly, after everything Hillary, Obama & the DNC did during the election, the 2 years of this Russia-gate psychosis (Russia-gate is no longer simple nonsense, it is pure madness threating to start WW3 with Russia), the Mass Media meltdown, the censorship of alternative new sites (like moon of Alabama), the constant PC outrage machine - the Democrats have never more deserved to lose an election, like they deserve to lose the 2018/2020 elections. Not that I expect anything good to come out of a Republican victory, I think Henry Kissinger said it best (referring to the Iran-Iraq war) "It's a pity they can't both lose", as it stands now the only real losers of these elections will be the American people, the World community and the peace movement.

Posted by: Kadath | Oct 31 2018 2:41 utc | 47

Just to corroborate my previous post (22), this has just been published:

China needn’t defend crucial psychological level of 7 yuan per dollar at any cost: <>

Here's the key excerpt from the op-ed:

The fall in the yuan has come as Sino-US trade friction intensifies, during which a moderate depreciation of the yuan is unavoidable and merely a reflection of supply and demand. If the yuan falls through the 7 per US dollar level, a market-driven depreciation will serve as an automatic economic stabilizer and benefit China's exports. Although currency depreciation will have a negative effect on the economy, the benefits will outweigh the costs of a moderate depreciation.

In other words, the RMB isn't even at its historical lows against the dollar, let alone "devalued". The Chinese still have plenty of room to go and are not afraid of using it.

Posted by: vk | Oct 31 2018 3:04 utc | 48

First of all, you do understand that the U.S. isn't a Fcuking Democracy, don't you? So speculation is for naught.

Zionists wanted and want Trump because he's going to deliver them Iran and everything they want! So of course Trump will get what he wants.

I find the man an insufferable, stinking A hole, but the Republicans taking everything means Trumpgov stays and ironically I get what I dream of seeing in my lifetime. Who needs ISIS, AQ, or a couple of nukes from NK when Trump is the nuclear big one that will bring the U.S. to a crashing end. That's all that orange conartist is good for and it can't come soon enough! Americans couldn't be more deserving of the monster they created that's going to destroy everything America pretends to stand for.

Posted by: Circe | Oct 31 2018 3:32 utc | 49


And no doubt that hog prepared for the rainy day he described, and all working class fools who think Trump is putting more money in their pocket will eat cake.

Posted by: Circe | Oct 31 2018 3:54 utc | 50


I think Henry Kissinger said it best (referring to the Iran-Iraq war) "It's a pity they can't both lose",

A. Henry Kissinger being a Zionist has only one goal: DESTRUCTION of the other. Zionists initially supported Hamas to destroy Fatah and then later vice-versa hoping both would end up destroyed, same with Iran (under the shah), then Iraq. The best they got is divide and weaken.

B. as it stands now the only real losers of these elections will be the American people And that's a bad thing, WHY? They make their bed each and every time with the same duopoly, so they get to lie in it, so what! I have no pity.

C. the World community -- Alas, so true😢

D. and the peace movement What peace movement? People have become lazy, distracted and complacent.

Posted by: Circe | Oct 31 2018 4:36 utc | 51

It is naive to think that the tail (voters) wags the dog (the establishment). US National politics is - by design - about elite interests. The elite knows that USA/Empire is in a struggle for global supremacy. Along those lines, the elite largely agrees with Trump's trade wars and militarism. Hillary helped her old pal Trump when she made her recent comments. If you think she didn't know that it would help Trump then you are naive or a Kool-Aid drinker.

Any analysis that starts from the media-infused perspective of Party, personality, and/or "what the voters" want is fundamentally flawed. Anyone that is paying attention should, by now, realize that the establishment thrives on the emotional connection to Party and personality that divides the country. That's how THEY PLAY US.

<> <> <> <> <> <>

My favorite commentator on US politics (and more!) is Caitlin Johnston. Her post: We are being played is a must read. And her observation that: Trump Minus Narrative Equals BushBama is aligned with what I've been saying for well over a year: Trump is the Republican Obama - another faux populist.

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Oct 31 2018 4:43 utc | 52


It's not Trump's mission. If the world unites against U.S. hegemony, it'll be because Trump personifies and magnifies that hegemony in all its blazing offensiveness. Trump is a gut punch of reality that spells. This is the real America, you suckers!

True on the part that follows. Trump is the mad scientist minus the science.

The global elite who will control this world government have loyalty to no nation. Oh, yes the do! Isra-Hell, and Trump has made Zionism greater than ever. Never mind, "will control", they already control this world.

Posted by: Circe | Oct 31 2018 5:08 utc | 53


I agree with every word. Hillary resurrected herself to help Trump.

But don't bullshet -- you haven't been saying all this for over a yeaaar! You were sold on Trump at first; then a few months in you started to show some skepticism and finally you saw the light. Congratulations!

Posted by: Circe | Oct 31 2018 5:20 utc | 54

"house of warships"

should read "houses of worship" or something like that, I assume?

Posted by: radiator | Oct 31 2018 5:57 utc | 55

I knew nothing about the M.E. when I first came here several years ago and have appreciated the opportunity to learn about world events. However, I find discussions of 'driverless' cars and U.S. election outcomes less relevant, a much less reliable way to get the pulse of world economic and political trends.

Our elections are not trustworthy any more than our politicians are. I see even in this thread that some voters still feel compelled to exercise LEV (lesser evil voting). I myself no longer vote for either 'major' party - although, interestingly, many candidates on our Oregon ballot have dual and even triple party affiliations in their listings (one State Senate candidate's stated affiliations include Democrat, Independent, AND Republican!) At least local city and county candidates are all Non-partisan. And the Ballot Measures are always of interest. The national portion of the election is in many ways the least important. I regret the unwarranted focus on it. It's like calculating professional sports outcomes in order to bet on them. I'm not a fan nor a gambler.

My ballot is ready to drop off in a nearby ballot box. I'm happy to participate in local/ regional elections but have no particular optimism about things getting better nationally.

Posted by: dus7 | Oct 31 2018 6:15 utc | 56

"washed-up whores"?

Posted by: Guerrero | Oct 31 2018 6:15 utc | 57

Your hunch is right , B. I think the Republicans will win.

Posted by: Friar Ockham | Oct 31 2018 6:26 utc | 58

On Clinton: the more she squawks the more republicans vote and the less democrats vote. That is my theory. This loser takes the fire out of everyone that counts other than her dimishing blind adherents. I think sometimes that Trump should lock her up for the greatest national security breach of all time but having her come out now blatantly proposing a rerun for president is such good luck for Trump.
Posted by: uncle tungsten | Oct 30, 2018 4:53:14 PM | 13

Nice theory. I was shocked & dismayed when POTUS Trump told his fans to stop trashing Hillary. But it seems to have shored up her Queen of the Dems status and thereby 'help' them to lose the mid-terms too...

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Oct 31 2018 6:26 utc | 59

ab initio @ 7
re He knows how to get and maintain attention.

The literal derivation of "entertain" is "to get and hold attention". Thus we arrive at "entertainment"!

Posted by: chu teh | Oct 31 2018 6:29 utc | 60


I understand that you feel vindicated but you are wrong about me and I've addressed that before.

I guess I have to address it once again.

I was for Jill Stein during the election because I agreed with Black Agenda Report that Sanders was a 'sheepdog' for Hillary.

Two weeks before the election, I decided that Hillary (which the media was touting as the sure winner) was too much of a threat and I voiced support for Trump (while holding my nose).

After the election we saw the phenomena of 'Never Trump' people trying their best to undermine Trump. That's when you showed up at MoA with your red-hot hatred of Trump. I pushed back against that hatred - as did others at MoA.

When Trump bombed Syria in April 2017 I reevaluated Trump and the 2016 election. I declared on my blog in MAY 2017 that Trump was a faux populist and have re-iterated that many many times at MoA since then. I have also described my belief that the entire 2016 election was rigged for Trump because Sanders was a sheepdog and Hillary could never have the mass appeal that Trump has. I think Hillary relishes her role behind the scenes as Kingmaker and shrewd political manipulator.

I expressed my thoughts most clearly in this August 30 2018 comment at MoA (which you may recall). Anyone interested should read the conversation that ensued as well.

That commentary draws on my re-discovery of the "missing link": Kissinger's Op-Ed of August 2014 in which he issued a call to action that was the precursor of MAGA. MAGA is a bi-partisan project to counter Russia-China.

Lastly, your over-riding focus remains on Trump. Even though you acknowledge that both Parties are to blame, you are always ready and willing to attack Trump as the root of all evil. When you do so, you contribute to the emotional hold that the duopoly thrives on. As much as I make this point, you can't/won't see that blind hatred of Trump is counterproductive. You are not alone in making that mistake, but you are one of the worst offenders.

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Oct 31 2018 6:53 utc | 61

radiator 54
I also noticed that. Thought it a typo. At the same time, the Israeli US partnership is religiously driven, so perhaps "house of warships" is an applicable term.

Posted by: Peter AU 1 | Oct 31 2018 6:54 utc | 62

Posted by: Circe | Oct 31, 2018 1:20:36 AM | 53

My response is in blog purgatory, awaiting b's release.

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Oct 31 2018 6:58 utc | 63


Posted by: Jackrabbit | Oct 31 2018 7:00 utc | 64

Hoarsewhisperer 58

Trump looked good at the start, scrapping TPP and shaking up or shaking down the US NATO allies, But I believe he is only looking at changing the US business strategy (from petro dollar to energy dominance) rather than moving from the uni-polar to a multi polar world, or an isolationist US. Returning US to its 'importance' it held in the world in the early nineties. Too many Kissinger and Trump Kissinger interviews available on youtube to ignore.

Posted by: Peter AU 1 | Oct 31 2018 7:59 utc | 65

Pat lang's veiw on what will happen in Syria after the midterm elections... "Among those will be an acceptance by the USG of a Russian/Syrian (R+6) offensive to clear Idlib Province of jihadis. IMO there is a "side deal" between POTUS and the Russians on this."

I also thought there would be a deal like this, the caveat being that it was hammered out, and signed, over the chopped up remains of Khashoggi.

Posted by: Peter AU 1 | Oct 31 2018 8:25 utc | 66

According to this morning's (england time) Guardian Mattis is trying to make Yemen Peace, but it is all tossage since it offers the people of Yemen nothing. They have to lay down their weapons, particularly Iranian missiles (which will be tough since they have none) pull back from the borders then maybe when they sit down to gab with Saudi and UAE some may be allowed to survive. We can bet that the border Mattis proposes leaves the Yemeni oil field back smack in KSA.
The one part of the graun's specious claptrap I agree with is that DC, London, Paris & Berlin are sh1t scared that the impending famine will make all the ruling parties offside with most voters in their own nations. So offside because there will be millions of dead children, that they are trying to shovel blame for these impending murders on the victims, not the perps who are deliberately blocking all food.

Matthis is worried about what could happen to him as a primary enabler of this slaughter if, (A) millions die and (B) the house of reps is dominated by dems looking to blame the trumpists.

Matthis is a fool when it comes to politics as it is tough to believe that many of those who tick the rethug box give a flying f**k about 10 or twenty million dead unwhites or that his "please give up and I promise not to kill quite so many" ploy is substantively different from the last 'final offer' amerika's UN flunkies made and the people of Yemen declined, just a few weeks back.

Posted by: Debsisdead | Oct 31 2018 8:55 utc | 67

doesn't matter which side of the one party wins. and no global warming isn't a plot by the elites to control everybody else, but it may explain why they are ramping up the control; they expect to find a nice little hideaway somewhere while the rest of the world goes to shit, knowing that the governments won't do jack about it because they bribe the governments not to.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Oct 31 2018 10:28 utc | 68

It should be obvious that JR @52 is correct that getting yourself worked up over personalities is falling into the establishment trap. This is as true with Trump as it was for Obama. JR points out that the population is manipulated by their emotional connection to their perceived political "team" and the top personalities of those teams. I just want to point out that while this is certainly the case for larger scale leverage to steer the mindless masses, much finer grained control is achieved through manipulating the identities of the individuals of which those masses are composed. This control over individuals' identities splits the population into dozens of mutually antagonistic subsets that are separately steerable by mass media cues. This is important because it is the corporate elite's manipulation of individuals' identity using textbook marketing technology that provides the control authority for steering an otherwise big and unmanageable population.

Posted by: William Gruff | Oct 31 2018 10:45 utc | 69

Of course the Dems (?) are making sure that the mid-terms will have large selection of migrant walkers on the border with the US JUST before voting.
This ZH link finds that someone is busing migrants to the Mexico/US border - otherwise they would not get there before february.

Who is doing this election meddling? Two major suspects; Democrats, and one commenter (Dune) thinks there may be (Soros/similar) or someone connected to a star on a lorry doing the transporting. (You have to follow his link for this - and as the segment is very short there is an element of doubt)

The motive is simple ; embarass Trump with scenes of Police/army v children (marchers) at the border - a couple of days before the voting.

(Disclosure; I am in the EU so don't have a valid opinion of the mid-term meddling, except to say that I think the winners have already been chosen)

Posted by: stonebird | Oct 31 2018 10:57 utc | 70

mr b your true colors come out

Posted by: bob | Oct 31 2018 11:00 utc | 71

My advice to America would be get back to sanity ! ‘The new normality ‘ is’nt / won’t be normality —-
Get rid of your guns ! The debates over, there a bad thing. They make money for bad people. The false logic /rational that goes with possessing guns, lays the ground work for a vastly larger psychological mistake America makes — what it euthamisticaly calls it’s military ‘defence’ 300,000,000,000 annual budget !! Think about that ! That could provide a lot of health care and quality of life for you all
It’s not sane !
Stoping that insanity would allso provide a massively more peaceful /prousperous world !! Baring in mind — the less US spend on arms the less Russia,China,Iran U.K. and just about every one else need to spend on arms!! The USA normality is in fact the one single problem distroying the world.
The U S I feel collectively need ‘treatment’
You can’t make a sane vote if you can’t nominate a sane candidate !!!

Posted by: Mark2 | Oct 31 2018 11:04 utc | 72

To add to my above sell ya’ guns and buy one of these ! Sorted

Posted by: Mark2 | Oct 31 2018 12:34 utc | 73

@41 It won't look like capitulation but the trade war with China will be resolved IMO.

Much the way the North Korea issue has been 'resolved' i.e not much will change but Trump will try to show it as a win

Posted by: dh | Oct 31 2018 13:07 utc | 74

Jackrabbit @ 53

My suggestion is audit a high school class in logic.

Strawman Fallacy. Description: Substituting a person's actual position or argument with a distorted, exaggerated, or misrepresented version of the position of the argument.

Here you simply contradict yourself: These statements are both yours in the same comment! LMAO

You can't agree with both of us, donkey. My analysis contradicts [Lang's].

Importantly, BOTH Lang and I assume that Russia and Syria are serious about wanting to reclaim Idlib.

This is in response to my comment:And I agree with Lang and JR, if there is an attack, and I think eventually may well be at some point, then Trump made a secret deal with Putin to hold off until after the mid-terms, and probably well after.

So, yes I can and did agree with both Lang and

More Jackrabbit strawmanning the barricades of his own delusions here:

Yet donkey believes Russia would be happy to trade it away and no reason for such a claim beyond the Empire propaganda and disinfo of "situational allies", "capitulation to Israel", and 'evil genius' Putin.

Where did I say Russia will trade away the chance to reclaim Idleb? Lol. Look above again, I said they will likely attack Idleb. Nowhere did I state Putin is an "evil genius."

And this is purely illogical reasoning on your part:(DT said)What I see in the grand scheme is the de facto multipolarity everyone yammers on about but ignores that it already exists.
(JR responded): "defacto multipolarity" - I would think you're joking if I didn't know that you're obliquely referencing your propaganda theme that Russia and China are "just like us" in that they have elites that subjugate their people. How many times do we have to unpack and refute that bullshit?

This is, again, why you are a waste of time, strawrabbit. I'm making no oblique reference to Russia and China in my comment. I'm illustrating the obvious fact there are multipolar political and diplomatic forces at work here with respect to Syria. Turkey has its own aims (such as control of its border w respect to the Kurds primarily), Russia has its own (already stated in my comment), ditto Germany and France (more warring in Syria injects more refugees and internal political unrest into the EU). This is four, count em, 4 countries each pursuing their own ends, not one of them the Evil Empire (which has its own aims) dictating terms to the others ("unipolarity).

Get some game dude, even if all you want to do is play this tired Daily Kos game of "Gotcha", circa 2005.

I could easily waste more of my time pulling apart the rest of your nonsense but life is too short. Have a great day. You da man. Keep up the grate work.

Posted by: donkeytale | Oct 31 2018 13:29 utc | 75

OOPS, just noticed I posted this to the wrong thread. Lol.

Meant as a response to JR's comment here

Apologies all around

Posted by: donkeytale | Oct 31 2018 13:54 utc | 76

uncle tungston @13 "Can't see much chance for change either with your totally kaput election system. Losers!". Can't agree, the US has the best election system that money can buy /s

Posted by: Harry Law | Oct 31 2018 13:54 utc | 77

You may be in this instance quite wrong

Posted by: Beam | Oct 31 2018 14:06 utc | 78

Anybody who thinks Orange County California is going blue this election is delusional.
This is Trump Country, through and through.

Posted by: morongobill | Oct 31 2018 14:12 utc | 79

iten to see it a bit like b, but not as convinced of the slam dunk for trump here...

either way i do agree with jr that it is essentially one party.. the war party, that has the motto war=money.... call it corporatocracy, or whatever.... thanks btw to whoever mentioned the. book by john perkins.. confessionf on an economic hitman.... excellent read.. thanks...

finally... to debs... actually the unfolding nightmare will be blamed on iran. meddling...of course the members of the war party could give a flying fuck about innocent people starving or dying...there concern for kashoggi was all about getting some leverage over ksa. and etc... otherwse, they could careless about him or the medival cult of ksa this point, it is still a sad world we live in and continuing on a downhill trajectory....i a prayning for a wake up, but maybe the nightmare needs to get worse first...slimeballs will be the last to wake up....

Posted by: james | Oct 31 2018 14:23 utc | 80

meant to sdd... clinto and the dems sure seem to be working for trump... i agree with that part of b’s comment strongly..

Posted by: james | Oct 31 2018 14:24 utc | 81


I'm sorry but I have to respond to this. It's very disingenuous of this administration to pretend they want a ceasefire and give the Saudis 30 days when they know the Saudis are right now deploying thousands of troops to take over al-Hudaydah.

In other words after the Saudis rain down hell taking over this important Yemeni gateway it's gonna be peace & love? I don't think Mattis/Trump's intentions are honorable. This is all show.

Posted by: Circe | Oct 31 2018 14:30 utc | 82

I don't think there's any danger of Hillary running in 2020. If the Dems do run her then they deserve the beating they will take.

Trump had hoped to fill the final days of the midterm campaign with daily rants about the "invasion" coming from the south. He has dispatched more troops than are currently serving in Iraq to the southern border. The "invaders" are still a thousand miles away and traveling on foot.

Unfortunately for him the mail bombs and the slaughter of Jews in Pittsburgh has knocked him off the front page in these last crucial days and significantly hobbled his bully pulpit. There's a growing sense that his toxic rhetoric has been at least partially responsible for these ugly crimes of hate.

Trump has tried to recover his momentum with ridiculous proclamations of a tax cut of 10% for the middle class while congress is on recess and the overturning the citizenship law for babies born in the USA with a stroke of the pen which is patently false.

Then there's the women. He sure has pissed a lot of them. Many feel that his SCOTUS pick, Kavanaugh, is just the guy to overturn Roe v Wade given half a chance. They feel very strongly about their reproductive rights. They resent the way he deals with any of them that disagree with him with a tirade of insulting names.

Trump's base is as solid at the wall he dreams of building. But they don't form a majority. Many swing voters who held their nose the last time around are disillusioned after his manic performance of the last two years.

I won't get into the economy, the evisceration of healthcare, or the complete disregard for the wild places and parks that have been revered for generations. Or the rolling back of EPA and banking regs that can only benefit the select few of which he would like to be one.

If the whole thing is rigged as many claim then I'm just wasting my time writing this. But the fact that he gets his fat ugly face on the front page everyday is no guarantee that the Republicans can salvage a majority next week.

Posted by: peter | Oct 31 2018 14:45 utc | 83

@78 beam... thanks for reminding me to check helmers site... the article on kashoggi from the russian angle is quite good... thanks..

Posted by: james | Oct 31 2018 14:59 utc | 84

The Reps. - Trump will do better than expected, and as Nate Silver is an idiot, won’t lose the House.

However I’m less sure of this (75%) than I was about Trump winning the Presidential (100%), there are local issues contests etc. I am ignorant of, close races, what not. So larger scope..

The Reps. did not block Trump’s candidacy, and ‘accepted’ his win (many footnotes, etc.) The Dems, aka the Clinton Gang, blocked their best candidate, Sanders.

Killary sealed the Dem’s fate with her mention of ds. .. Deplorables are not political opponents one can debate, argue with, or even play dirty tricks on. They are not foes one can fight. They are trash, nobodies, their only role is to be inferior to the superior, 'Democratic', class, and be targets of sneering plus potential aggro.. — Along the same lines one might argue that Romney - a ‘fair’ Repub. candidate - lost to Obama because of his “47 %”, natch' only part of the story.

The Clinton Gang turned the political fights tribal, pegged on hidden class and blared identity definitions, us aginst them thereby terminally gutting the vestiges - admittedly slim in 2000+ - of a Representative Republic functioning in a Federation Structure ‘for the good of all citizens’ - say. To accomplish this, they needed an outside enemy. They understood that just ‘internal’ would be impossible (they couldn’t target blacks, for ex. though they are incredibly racist), the fight must be also / first against the enemy without; Russia was the obvious choice.

Imho many are confusedly unwilling to give up a semblance of adherence to the rules of the traditional US pol. system and perceive the above. They will not vote for Dems. (see also clueless joe at 24..)

In any case the whole ‘democracy’ thing is a rickety building, it has become difficult to weed thru perpetual lies, propaganda, obfuscations, etc. from both parties and third /other party hopers, plus manipulations, etc.

The important question is what, when, where, resistance, opposition, arises, where will the cracks be first, what happens when this system dies, etc.

Posted by: Noirette | Oct 31 2018 15:18 utc | 85


You make good points on what we're witnessing, but here's the reality check:


Posted by: Circe | Oct 31 2018 15:31 utc | 86

22 and 25

Remarkable Deep Purple 2000 Neutron Bmob Role Reprisal:

Cue NASDAQ mini-crash and plunge protection team
Cue September peak in housing and construction with big layoffs
Cue 'anthrax letters' false flag fake 'pipe bmobs' to Democrats
Cue 'army of central american zombies march on Texas'
Cue 11 dead in Ohio Pittsburgh
Cue Rodham rising from grave to remind Republicans to vote!
Cue even MoA pundits predicting Republican victory (kidding)

"We win, you lose. It's just business, get over it. Now get off my land."
There is only Deep Purple Mil.Gov UniParty. Sorry. Bernie is a sheep dog.

There will be $3,000B in Omnibus Deficit Bills One, Two and Three in 2019
Fed Bank interest-only ... FOREVER ... debt service will hit $500B in 2019
Twice-hacked unaudited no stop-loss Pentagon bleedout will hit $500B in 2019
The sum of all Fed Health and Human Services is $1,000B, therefore bankrupt
Ergo, SS and MC will be tapped out and insolvent by 2020 to 'make this work'.

AFA the economy and the vote, had a banquet dinner over the weekend with a group of business associates I've kept in touch with for a decade, business associates who at the time were high-flyers in international trade as civilian/military suppliers. 10 years on, everyone looks like a ghoul, traffics in dark humor, and are chasing gigger product pitches that would make an Amway salesman laugh. So many products, so few buyers. One associate moans, "I just need someone with $10,000,000 to close this deal!" (buying out a bankrupt competitor at 10c on $). Nobody has free cash. And not one of them expressed any interest in the vote, nor have my kids nor any of my or their friends any interest in dipping their thumbs in Deep Purple Koolaid.

"Running on empty. Running blind. Running into the sun, and I'm running behind."

Happy Halloween!

Posted by: Anton Worter | Oct 31 2018 15:35 utc | 87


I have no idea what happened with the link. So go to RealClearPolitics, click on Election 2018, then somewhere on that page click on House for House Statistics and do the math.

The Senate will stay the same and Dems could lose Missouri.

Posted by: Circe | Oct 31 2018 15:39 utc | 88


Actually click on Battle for the House, I find it's easier to get the clear picture with that than the graph.

Posted by: Circe | Oct 31 2018 15:48 utc | 89

b said:"My personal hunch is that the Republicans will keep both houses and may even gain a few seats."

I agree b. Even with DJT spewing outright lies daily, the MSM's refusal to re butt them, will, IMO, help this regime stay in power.

The power of organised $ money rules the empire, thru their capture of all the conduits of information available to rank & file Americans.

Watch out world...

Things cannot change until the U$A hits "rock bottom" economically.

Posted by: ben | Oct 31 2018 15:53 utc | 90

That Trump gifted the one percent with the tax cut, while giving the high hard one to trailer park Trumpians, may have some effect.

That Mitch McConnell started up about "Entitlements" needing cutting - meaning Social Security and Medicare - which the trailer park Trumpanzees paid into with blood sweat and tears. Maybe that will register.

However, in confronting some of this, I am finding that many Trumpanzees whom understand that Congressional thieves intend to steal their social security are acquiescent. Ergo: We must become self-sufficient. Can't rely on gubmint to take care of people. Kool Aid.

The ones that cannot comprehend that they're about to get screwed hard with no lube, are content to fling poo, "Hillary, Obama, Marxist!".

As was said, The best gubmint is one in deadlock. They can't screw us that hard when they're deadlocked.

Deadlock. Not Lockstep. And God help us when there's bipartisanship.

Posted by: fastfreddy | Oct 31 2018 16:00 utc | 91

We should applaud a republican win because they will no doubt go after "insolvent entitlements" like ss and Medicare. Let them try to fund the military adventurism abroad. And then my money then is on an incredible reckoning that will finally purge the neocon and neolib estab out the door, shooed away likethe rats they are. You go after entitlements and that will be the galvanizing force we have all been hoping for. Painful? Yes. Any other choice? Nope.

Posted by: Nemesiscalling | Oct 31 2018 16:15 utc | 92

Remember the build-up for Hillary in the media towards the finale in 2016, and then the big anti-climax? Same thing happening now. It'll be sagging, wrinkled balloons all over again. They have to make it look good, so people don't get the fix is in.

Posted by: Circe | Oct 31 2018 16:17 utc | 93

stj @ 8 said;"Nonetheless, the belief that it is Trump's stable genius that is whipsawing the media is ludicrous. The rich owners of the media and the rich advertisers have put the media to work for Trump, just like in in the general election."

Bottom line truth..

Posted by: ben | Oct 31 2018 16:24 utc | 94


Posted by: peter | Oct 31 2018 16:43 utc | 95

@66 peter au... about pat langs ‘’’side deal’’.... pl keeps on holding out faith in trump.. i think it will be biz as usual with the evil empire and one can’t cut a deal or side deal with them... look for the usa, israel to perpare for ww3, with trump continuing on as he has to date..

Posted by: james | Oct 31 2018 16:43 utc | 96

I think your hunch is wrong. The Republicans will retain the Senate because most seats up for a vote are Democratic. There will be a switch in the House. Trump and his domestic policies are detestable to a majority of Americans.

Posted by: Bob In Portland | Oct 31 2018 16:54 utc | 97

Judging by the small amount of political mail received, not much money was poured into our state and local elections here in Oregon when compared to previous years. At the state and local levels, things are fairly well run and the economy isn't anemic or robust--fair to middling is an okay measure, IMO. But that's not to say we lack problems. Statewide, we have a big issue regarding properly funding the judicial system as I've personally discovered, and locally we have a severe housing shortage to the point where attracting professionals like nurses and doctors to work and live in our communities is greatly constrained. Those problems and a host of others can only be solved within the state--a reminder that most politics are local. And again as usual, the juicy political fights and scandals all seem to be East of the Continental Divide--particularly in the South. Too bad there aren't any trustworthy publications looking at in-state political climates with a view to determining how roiled they are due to Trump's and his adversary's antics. For as 2016 proved, the real action in 2020 will be the Electoral College vote, which will be determined by individual state's political climates.

Posted by: karlof1 | Oct 31 2018 16:54 utc | 98

The msm is working for Trump.They are fake news.

Posted by: dahoit | Oct 31 2018 16:55 utc | 99

I'm sorry to see this site's extremely valuable foreign policy analysis regarding Middle Eastern affairs undermined in my view by under-appreciation of important factors regarding Trump and other current political dynamics in the United States. In this case, the elephant in the room is that Trump and many of his appointees are becoming increasingly recognized as self-interested phonies if not grifters. From afar, particularly those who oppose the neo-liberal foreign policies of Obama-Clinton, it may seem like Trump provides a welcome change. Closer review, which is inherently easier for those who live in the United States, shows that he is even more of a controlled entity who represents singular dangers to those most directly affected by his policies.

Let me illustrate those sweeping statements with a couple of specific objections to opinions expressed in the column.

First, it is a totally subjective view by the author that "Of the 48 seats that are in play only 16 seem likely to change in their favor." Even if that turns out to be the case (which I and most pollsters believe highly unlikely), it would be in large measure because of well-documented voter suppression, such as reduction of polling places in Democratic areas and/or elimination of large quantities of Democratic voters by Republican secretaries of state.

Second, it is also a seat of the pants opinion that Hillary Clinton is "the most hated" woman in America. While that may be true among some sectors it's true also that that she won the 2016 popular vote by nearly three million and has been cited on Gallup polls "as the most admired woman in America" every year (including last year, 2017) but one since 1998. ( That's not to say that her Libya, other foreign policies and money-making were not reprehensible, only that in terms of "popularity" she is not the despised figure that foreign policy opponents may believe -- and that many if not most reasonable people understand that Republicans, particularly Trump, are doing most of the same kinds of things.

Third, no one should fall for the con job that Brett Kavanaugh was or is a victim during the recent Supreme Court confirmation process. He has been deeply involved for nearly three decades as a notorious partisan and Deep State operative in some of the pivotal historical dramas in the United States. The key point about his confirmation involved documented perjury on a number of issues, with the sexual misconduct allegations just one part. The rush to confirmation with a whitewash FBI investigation is the big scandal, not that several women made allegations against him. The "male grievance" issue is hoked up, as many can see, and will ultimately become exposed as a con job, much like the similar issues involving another puppet, Clarence Thomas.

Finally, the view from afar that Democrats have no attractive candidates or policies seems highly overstated but also understandable. The major media -- and well-funded advocacy/propaganda groups -- are obviously focused on demonizing the best known leaders. But the most popular issues, such as effective health care and education, lend themselves problem-solvers who, hopefully, can gain traction in their communities without international headlines and personalities.

Posted by: DC Observer | Oct 31 2018 17:07 utc | 100

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