Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
September 18, 2018

Syria - Israel's Provocation Kills Russian Soldiers - Moscow Will Take Political Revenge

Yesterday Turkey and Russia agreed on a further de-escalation in Idelb province in Syria (see the update here). This agreement takes away the chance of an imminent wider war in which the U.S. and some of its allies would use a fake 'chemical attack' as a pretext to launch missiles against a large number of Syrian government targets and military positions.

A peaceful solution of the Idleb situation is unsatisfying for Israel. The successful Syrian defeat of the Jihadi enemy inside the country would allow Syria and its allies to concentrate their forces against Israel. Israel wants the Syrian government destroyed and the country in chaos.

On Sunday September 16 Israel tried to hit an Iranian Boeing 747 freight plane at Damascus airport. The plane allegedly carried an Iranian copy of the Russian S-300 long range air defense System for the Syrian army.

On Monday around 10:00pm local time 4 F-16 jets of the Israeli airforce, coming from the sea, launched missiles against at least three targets on Syria's coast. The strike came only hours after Israel released satellite images of what it called "strategic targets" in Syria. The integrated Syrian and Russian air-defenses responded.

The Israeli air force had warned the Russian forces in Syria only one minute before the strike. A Russian IL-20 electronic warfare airplane (red line) was preparing to land at the Russian airport near Latakia just as the Israeli attack (blue) happened.


Source: Russian defense Ministry - bigger
The IL-20 was hit 35 kilometers off the coast by a S-200 air-defense missile fired by the Syrian military towards the Israeli attack. There were 15 Russian soldiers on board of the plane which were likely all killed. Russian ships search for survivors. Some wreckage of the plane was found at sea 27 kilometers west of the village of Banias.

IL-20 electronic warfare version - bigger

The Israeli attack came out of the same direction as the Russian IL-20. The large 4 propeller plane creates a much bigger radar reflection than the small F-16s fighter jets. The S-200 missiles have a semi-active radar homing seeker. These are passive detectors of a radar signal which is provided by an external source, in this case the Syrian and Russian radars on the ground. While the missile was aimed at the F-16 its seeker likely mistook the larger radar reflection of IL-20 for the intended target.

At the same time as the Israeli air force attacked, a Russian frigate (red) near the coast detected missile launches from the French Frigate Auvergne (blue) nearby. The French frigate carries air, ship and land attack missiles. France denied "any involvement in the incident." But it seems that this only referred to the IL-20 incident and was not a denial of missile launches.

Even more was going on says Haaretz:

Not only Russian and (allegedly) Israeli and French aircraft and missiles were in the air. Civilian radar also tracked British Royal Air Force aircraft, which, unusually, had switched on their transponders and gone into holding patterns – most likely to avoid being somehow involved in the exchange of fire over Latakia.

The Russian Defense Ministry accuses the Israeli government of a deliberate set up:

"Israel did not warn the command of the Russian troops in Syria about the planned operation. We received a notification via a hotline less than a minute before the strike, which did not allow the Russian aircraft to be directed to a safe zone," Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Maj. Gen. Igor Konashenkov said.

After the Israeli attack the Syrian state TV showed the headquarters of the Technical Industries Agency near Latakia on fire. Other targets were near Jableh, south of Latakia, and Homs. At least ten people were wounded due to these attacks.

The Russian military spokesman also accused Israel of "hostile action" against Russian forces:

"We see these provocative actions of Israel as hostile," Konashenkov said, adding that 15 Russian servicemen were killed as a result of the "irresponsible actions" of Israel's Defense Forces, which violated "the spirit of the Israeli-Russian partnership."
According to the spokesman, the Russian Defense Ministry reserves the right to an "adequate response" following the Israeli attack.

Israel (and France?) are deliberately provoking the Syrian and Russian forces. It hopes for a response that allows it to play the victim and to call on U.S. President Trump for help and protection. The help would come in the form of a U.S., British and French attack on the Syrian government and Syrian military targets.

Russia will certainly take revenge for the Israeli provocation, but will likely do so in the political arena. On Netanyahoo's personal request Russia had stopped the delivery of original Russian S-300 long range air-defense missiles to the Syrian military. These would have been less likely to veer off towards the wrong target. In consequence an Iranian 747 was damaged and 15 Russian soldiers were killed. Netanyahoo can forget about any further such 'favors' from Moscow.

Posted by b on September 18, 2018 at 10:09 UTC | Permalink

Comments
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Pft 275–Brendon O’Connell has many videos on Youtube—just search under his name as correctly spelled in this post—using the YouTube search tool. His website seems currently to be inactive though still accessible. It is isolatebutpreserve.blogspot.com.

Posted by: Jeremy | Sep 19 2018 16:19 utc | 301

@294 carlD - Agreed & spot on...

And as realistic already stated (@291) "dissent is NOT trolling"

MoA, of all places, should welcome dissent, otherwise this place is reduced to being an echo chamber which does everyone a disservice

Going forward, regarding this tragic event & its ramifications to the ME & world, the proof will be in the pudding, as it were - and the actions of the various parties will tell the story, more than their words

Posted by: xLemming | Sep 19 2018 16:37 utc | 302

Another bio of Martyanov that gives a more detailed account of his military experience.

https://blog.usni.org/posts/2017/08/28/aircraft-carriers-drama
"Mr. Martyanov is a graduate of Caspian (Kirov) Naval Academy, class of 1985. Upon graduation, he served on ships of the Soviet Coast Guard through 1990. He currently resides in the United States."

A few in this thread have been recommending Martyanov's blog. I check on it from time to time, but he does not have his bio on his blog... Pat Lang he recommends above others, but Lang has proven himself wrong virtually every time in predicting Russia's military moves in Syria.

Posted by: Peter AU 1 | Sep 19 2018 16:47 utc | 303

Peter AU 1,#301

Hello Peter.

In a previous post I stated that in my opinion, Putin was rude to
Netanyahu and did all he could to distance himself from Benyamin.

Placing the Vet between his person and Netanyahu was such a move.

Posted by: CarlD | Sep 19 2018 17:04 utc | 304

Alain Badiou, France’s leading left-wing intellectual, asks the following question:

“...what is at issue is to know whether or not, in the general field of public intellectual discussion, the word "Jew" constitutes an exceptional signifier, such that it would be legitimate to make it play the role of a final, or even SACRED, signifier?

“….by a remarkable irony, one thereby comes to the point of applying to the name "Jew" a claim that the Christians originally directed against the Jews themselves, which was that "Christ" was a worthier name than all others. Today it is not uncommon to read that "Jew" is indeed a name beyond ordinary names.

And it seems to be presumed that, like an inverted original sin, the grace …. can be passed down not only to descendants and to the descendants of descendants but to all who come under the predicate in question, be they heads of state or armies engaging in the severe oppression of those whose lands they have confiscated.

Let me add something of a more affective note. It is wholly intolerable to be accused of anti-Semitism by anyone for the sole reason that…. one does not conclude as to the predicate "Jew" and its religious and communitarian dimension that it receive some singular valorization - a transcendent annunciation!

- nor that Israeli exactions, whose colonial nature is patent and banal, be specially tolerated. I propose that nobody any longer accept, publicly or privately, this type of political blackmail.”

excerpt from Alain Badiou’s essay, (The Uses of the Word “Jew”) translated by Steve Corcoran

http://www.lacan.com/badword.htm

Posted by: The Peasant of the Danube | Sep 19 2018 17:06 utc | 305

@195 jackrabbit.. i agree with your post.. we have to wait and see..

@220 j swift.. thanks.. i concur..

@226 peter au.. did you read that post from pallory @54 quoted immediately below? i think you are partly correct, and partly incorrect..
"Russia has its own S-400 systems defending Latakia, so it can defend itself and doesn't need Syria's S-200s.
They would have been watching the Israeli F-16s on radar, and then they get a phone call saying an attack is happening in one minute. Russia must have said "OK", because they didn't blow the F-16s out of the sky. All they have to say to Israel is "Next time it will NOT be OK." and Israel will have to stop it's invasions."

@233 cdivision.. that is how i see it too..

@259 jeremy... that is a relevant angle to see it from..

@263 charles wood... thanks for that..

@289 arioc.. thanks for replying to grom.. i like your response!

@290 jason.. interesting personal comment. thanks!

@297 sandokhan.. i agree with your conclusion.

smoothies latest post.. i haven't read it yet..
http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2018/09/some-fast-thoughts-on-il-20.html

Posted by: james | Sep 19 2018 17:22 utc | 306

Syrian AD radars don't need Ru IFF - both system are integrated. Ru IFF on Ru radars query aircraft and ID blip as RuAF to entire network, but unnecessary for IL-20. They knew ID from takeoff. Syrian S-200 wouldn't be permitted or configured to act autonomously or ignore Ru ID. Ru AD C&C would have never allowed launch if IL-20 (or NATO aircraft) anywhere in vacinity. Why risk? Syrian AD 'mistake' sounds like cover story.

Posted by: Paveway IV | Sep 19 2018 17:30 utc | 307

Lots of hashing and thrashing while debating known unknowns. Many good observations too numerous to list and thank. Too bad a minefield of gibberish needs wading though to find them.

As several have noted, Russia will modify its policy such that it increases security for its people within Syria. Those modifications will be "visible." Igor Bundy at SyrPers posted a comment that was pasted earlier on the thread suggesting those modifications would result in an overt no-fly zone--"visible" because officially declared. Here's the relevant quote:

"Based on NOTAMs issued by #Russia|n Navy, if an #Israel|i fighter jet wants to fly out of #Israel & even attack #Syria, it must fly above 19,000ft. If flies below, it will be shot-down by Russian S-300F. But flying above 19,000ft will cause their shot-down by #Syria|n S-200s!"

Also, Russian radar would have recorded everything happening in the sky that evening--jets, missile launches, and the specific missile that downed the IL-20. As such, it must be assumed the French are lying about their warship's missile launches--Russia doesn't make empty accusations like the Outlaw US Empire and its vassals--as the missile attack lasted well after the Zionist jets departed. This is what's meant when Russia refers to "specialist interpretation"--minutely mapping the radar details. The Zionists are the only source for the supposed presence of UK Typhoons, which I think a ruse. Oh to be able to see all that radar evidence!

Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 19 2018 17:30 utc | 308

peter - it is a good overview and answers yours and harrys conversation to a degree.. not sure of the time frame though..

Posted by: james | Sep 19 2018 17:34 utc | 309

Russia is directly to blame for the loss of these 15 service members lives. Not Israel. Not Syria. Not arming their closest ally (Syria) adequately. Playing nice and living under the delusion that Israel is their ally (it is not). Russia is fully capable of providing a clear deterrent to US, it's coalition of vassal states and Israel that any attacks on Syria will result in immediate retaliation, and backing it up without significant consequence. What does it have to fear ? Russia is already sanctioned to the hilt, encircled by US missile sites and allies, undermined from within by US proxies and agents, what more does it have to fear that could not be defended against by the threat of a comprehensive nuclear response?

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Sep 19 2018 17:38 utc | 310

Here's the map showing the NOTAM & Navigational Warnings declared by Russia that will possibly be of a semi-permanent nature until the war against Syria is concluded. Didn't take long to modify policy did it.

Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 19 2018 17:43 utc | 311

Arch Bungle

Most likely weakness, Russia is not the deterrent against US/Nato aggression, not because they do not want to perhaps but because they simply cant - due weakness compared to US/Nato abilities.

Posted by: Zanon | Sep 19 2018 17:52 utc | 312

@CarlD #295

> I am certainly not a Russia basher.
> I did not blame Russia for anything

Hopefully so, however "Russia blessed" murder of Syrians can hardly be read other than blaming.

And that "Party line" is so recurrent these years that it can hardly be seen different, whenever you follow by intention or by habit.

On one another forum, where I have being "exposed" as both hasbara shil and anti-Semitic Nazi at the same time, people went on to saying that there is enough heroes queuing to wipe off Israel, and they only hesitate because Putin did not gave them his permission.

> I am appalled by the (unneeded) declarations of Russia's President re the lamenting of circumstances.

granted, Russia is much weaker in advertising and PR than the West. Goes without asking.

> Couldn't he say: "we will investigate and take necessary actions once we have reached a conclusion."

Personally I would like it too. But there would be lots of people who would say "Putin caved in", "Putin does not have a clue", "Putin does not have virtue to claim anything but hesitations and doubts" and so on.

We even can not be sure how much his words were for civilian public across the world, for Russian military and secret services, for maybe Israel/French/etc officials. If we would assume some emergent deal was being negotiating between Russia and Israel by proxy of lesser ranks official, like the one between USA and USSR during Cuban crisis, during those hours, then his message could have been a required signal that he approves upon that negotiations and those people indeed represent Russian government, if unofficially.
Granted, this all is wild fantasy lacking publicly available facts to prove or disprove it. But, well, half the discussions are.

> But, the very existence of the deconfliction line between the IDF and the Russian military

And here we may remember highly specific Russian claim, that Israel "violated the spirit of partnership with Russia".
Note, it was carefully worded to stress than no specific "letter" or no specific "agreement" was violated but only a "partnership spirit".

> Since these attacks are not impeded by the Russians, it can only mean that the Russians are indifferent to the fate of Syrian, Hezbollah and Iranian assets in the war theater of Syria whenever Israel is the aggressor.

Really? Then perhaps we should test your formula. You know, the formula is correct when it works with any values the variables were bound to.

Like, "X+2 = 1+X+1" works with any value of X. Yet "X-Y = Y-X" work only with some specifically selected values. It would work when you cherry peek for example X as 2.5 and Y as 10/4, but it will not work if trying different numbers.

So, I would test your formula the same way - I would just peek the different numbers and give them a try.

So, you formula is: If Israeli attacks are not impeded by [X] then [X] is indifferent to the fate of Syrian/Iranian/Hesbollah assets.

Let's try.

X = Syria: If Israeli attacks are not impeded by [Syria] then [Syria] is indifferent to the fate of Syrian/Iranian/Hesbollah assets.

X = Iran: If Israeli attacks are not impeded by [Iran] then [Iran] is indifferent to the fate of Syrian/Iranian/Hesbollah assets.

X = CarlD: If Israeli attacks are not impeded by [CarlD] then [CarlD] is indifferent to the fate of Syrian/Iranian/Hesbollah assets.

Sounds legit.

Posted by: Arioch | Sep 19 2018 17:56 utc | 313

s/peek/pick

a stupid typo and time pressure

Posted by: Arioch | Sep 19 2018 17:57 utc | 314

Oh to be able to see all that radar evidence!
Karlofi - Try a FOIA request to the British government. They have a radar station at RAF Troodos in Cyprus that would have a grandstand view of all the action. As for the RAF Typhoons, the RAF would have seen the Israeli aircraft taking off from their base in Israel and tracked them as they flew north at which point the RAF would most likely have scrambled a couple of Typhoons from RAF Akrotiri so that they had the advantage of altitude if anything kicked off that was a threat to RAF resources. So as to be a threat to no-one (see my comment currently at 279 above), the Typhoons would have likely been stacked above RAF Akrotiri.

Posted by: Ghost Ship | Sep 19 2018 18:01 utc | 315

https://natsouth.livejournal.com/8906.html

Russia has imposed No-flight zones in the Med.

Posted by: partizan | Sep 19 2018 18:02 utc | 316

I ll add something about the French context. Macron's problems started in July when Le Monde came up with a story that had been known to them and some insiders since May. Why then? Apparently because Macron started to talk positively about Putin and the idea that Syria was finally returning to peace. So the possibility of a set up to ty implying a NATO country, and the complete silence on the evening of the event by the French media, possibly means that they prefered to play it quite although they know exactly where the risk come from.

Posted by: Mina | Sep 19 2018 18:13 utc | 317

Arch Bungle - The Washington Fuckwits are so fucking dumb that they believe the United States might win an unlimited thermonuclear war between Russia and the United States, so I'm glad that one side at least demonstrates a high degree of intelligence.

Posted by: Ghost Ship | Sep 19 2018 18:13 utc | 318

@ ghost ship.. i enjoy your posts.. stop bothering with the riff raff that show up at moa from time to time.. they will never get it..

Posted by: james | Sep 19 2018 18:20 utc | 319

315 Arioch:

baxk to your formula

Like, "X+2 = 1+X+1" works with any value of X. Yet "X-Y = Y-X" work only with some specifically selected values. It would work when you cherry peek for example X as 2.5 and Y as 10/4, but it will not work if trying different numbers.

So, I would test your formula the same way - I would just peek the different numbers and give them a try.

So, you formula is: If Israeli attacks are not impeded by [X] then [X] is indifferent to the fate of Syrian/Iranian/Hesbollah assets.

Let's try.

X = Syria: If Israeli attacks are not impeded by [Syria] then [Syria] is indifferent to the fate of Syrian/Iranian/Hesbollah assets.

X = Iran: If Israeli attacks are not impeded by [Iran] then [Iran] is indifferent to the fate of Syrian/Iranian/Hesbollah assets.

X = CarlD: If Israeli attacks are not impeded by [CarlD] then [CarlD] is indifferent to the fate of Syrian/Iranian/Hesbollah assets.

Sounds legit.

Arioch,

You forgot some very essential parameters:

if Israel Attacks are not impeded by Iran WHILE IRAN HAS THAT CAPABILITY then...

The essential factor is having the capacity to do x or y or Z.

this differentiates between the Russians and the others, be they CarlD
or Iran or Syria and any others.

I am certain that when you factor this into the equation it does make a
difference.

In this case, Russia has the capability, the power, the competence
to impede any such Israeli actions against Syria.

CArlD, Iran, Syria, Hezbollah do not have that essential characteristic.

It makes a difference

Posted by: CarlD | Sep 19 2018 18:24 utc | 320

CarlD 306

With the shootdown of the Russian plane, trolls came out of the woodwork like frogs coming out of the ground after rain. Many of the regulars here that generally respect what Russia is trying to do in Syria joined in the croaking chorus.
What you guys are ignoring is Putin's bottom line.
"Our attitude towards this tragedy is set forth in a statement by our Defence Ministry, and has been fully coordinated with me." http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/58586

Putin phone conversation with Netanyahu...
"Vladimir Putin noted that operations of this nature by the Israeli Air Force are in violation of Syria's sovereignty. In this particular case, Russian-Israeli agreements on preventing dangerous incidents had not been observed either, and that resulted in the Russian aircraft coming under Syrian air defence fire. The Russian President called on the Israeli side to prevent such incidents in the future."
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/58589

With his velvet glove of diplomacy - which many take as weakness - Putin is handing Netanyahu a vice, into which he will have to insert his balls.

Posted by: Peter AU 1 | Sep 19 2018 18:27 utc | 321

> Here's a thought: if you are flying a fighter jet and you hide behind an unarmed honking-big turboprop plane then how, exactly, is that materially different to soldiers who use unarmed men as human shields?

@Yeah, Right #237

That is no doubt very close, unless IAF sees Russian military an enemy force they are entitled to take hostages.

The differences i see though are:

1. With "human shield" tactics humans can not detach and run away, or fall flat, etc. They are fixed and held in place. However the IL-20 was landing and in a minute or two would clear the shooting zone for SAA.

2. With "human shield" there is no choice of firing direction. Humans are held very close to the attacker, more so there are often many humans coerced to walk in protective wall formations, thus blocking all directions of fire.
However IAF jets were not giving IL-20 a hug, they made a fly by. While they probably overlapped for the specific S-200 station for a specific moment in time - it would not be so for other SAA AD stations located elsewhere. If you draw a line on a map through the points where Russian and Israeli aircrafts were - it is a line, not thr whole map black-out.

3. When talking about "human shield" it is often assumed the defenders were fired at and had a simple choic to return fire regardless the humans or die (sometimes a 3rd option to retreat and give up the land permanently is added). However while Syrian targets were targeted by IAF i saw no indication that the specific S-200 battery was targeted and fired hastily in self-defense. Nor therr are indications those IAF jets were to stay and occupy Syrian position rather tjan hit-and-run.

Posted by: Arioch | Sep 19 2018 18:33 utc | 322

Ghost Ship @316--

Thanks for your reply. Paraphrasing what Russia has stated, any specialist can see what occurred, meaning NATO eyes too. Shocked that Pompeo expressed condolences over the Russian deaths. That ought to tell us something. I see the No Fly Zone map has a ring around Cyprus. Perhaps Pompeo's statement is a way of acknowledging the situation's escalation due to new Russian policy.

Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 19 2018 18:38 utc | 323

Arioch 323

B has the Russian military map up in his article showing the flight paths of the planes and Israeli missiles. My thought is that the S-200 launched at the Israeli missiles shortly after they were launched and the Russian plane well clear of the targeting radar. The Israeli missiles the flew across behind the Russian plane dragging the targeting radar onto, and illuminating the Russian plane when the S-200 missiles were close to the Il.
Traveling at 2.5 kilometers per second, with the IL coming into the radar beam, just a second or so of illumination may be enough

Posted by: Peter AU 1 | Sep 19 2018 18:54 utc | 324

325

Peter AU

I take exception to the beam being carried over to the IL 20. Rocket would
abort right then an there as soon as the beam caught the transponder squawk.

Posted by: CarlD | Sep 19 2018 19:00 utc | 325

The Syrian S 200 story from Russia Military occured way too fast and before Proper Investigation.
This could be the Cover up on behalf of Israel.
Shoigu said Israel was at Fault....Freudian slip?
I'm no expert on military aircraft time movements.
4 IAF F16i on stand off attack suddenly know a IL 20m was flying a track and adjust to the lower evaluation and slower speed IL 20m in mere moments as a Syrian S 200 pops up out of nowhere.
I'm having trouble buying this.

One way to test this is to question Russian Military publish and watch how loud Israhell media push support for Russian Vision which says accident/S 200.

Posted by: Brad Isherwood | Sep 19 2018 19:06 utc | 326

CarlD
Russia has stated the plane was downed by a Syrian S-200 missile. How exactly does the control or radar ID system work once a missile has been launched. The missile itself cannot abort from the information I can find. It has a proximity fuse and a command detonation. unless detonated it will keep going until it falls out of the sky.
Smoothie at his blog is saying the Russian upgraded Syrian system has no way of identifying friend or foe, which I find a bit hard to believe after the action they've seen in recent months.

Posted by: Peter AU 1 | Sep 19 2018 19:16 utc | 327

Vis the British jets out of Cyprus, do we actually know that they were (the assumption is Eurofighters)? The RAF also operates several R.1 Sentinel SIGNIT jets which one reasonably assumes operate out of Cyprus not infrequently. They certainly have been carrying out operations over I-rack and the vicinity.

Posted by: et Al | Sep 19 2018 19:18 utc | 328

Another thought from what I have read. Control radars in these systems generally pick the targets for the targeting radars.

Posted by: Peter AU 1 | Sep 19 2018 19:19 utc | 329

what certain is that will never know what happened 30 km off the Syrian coast. i tend to believe it was some kind of special operation, just like the Malaysian jet over Ukraine. apparently, that flight/operation targeted the Russian state, but against who this operation was?
Some food for thought i've found in a couple of articles.

https://russia-insider.com/en/il-20-loss-perfect-opportunity-russia-close-down-syria-israeli-attacks-good/ri24794?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

http://en.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13970628000513

Posted by: partizan | Sep 19 2018 19:24 utc | 330

@CarlD #321

That parameter was not there your formula, was it?
Now that you add it, we can go further.

Capability is quite a vague word.
Syria and Iran do have air defense.
Syria and Iran do have air force.
Syria and Iran can purchase or hire AD & AF equipment and personnel all around the world, if bad Russia leaves them in the cold.
Syria and Iran do have assymetrical ways to punish Israel for the attacks.

So the claim that they have no means is not correct. They maybe have less means than Russia but they do have.

Even CarlD does have means, he may infiltrate into Israel and take some Israeli hostages or blast some building there, making Israel punished for such an attack, thus instilling fear and making Israel imoede at least those attacks that they would not wish to pay the price for.

So, sadly, the formula's result that you all are indifferent still holds.

Posted by: Arioch | Sep 19 2018 19:43 utc | 331

Posted by: kgw | Sep 18, 2018 7:36:50 PM | 188
Thank you, I wasn't aware that several of the terrorist groups had refused the deal at the time I posted (does anyone know what groups/% agreed?). But the possibility was baked into the agreement as Turkey has until 10/15 to get them to change their mind.
It still puts the area on hold and still allows Russia and co to wipe out the opposition outside of the city.

re the French role
I read somewhere that one of the Israeli planes flew into alignment with the French ship and fired its missiles in a trajectory to create the appearance of its missiles being fired by the Fr ship. I wonder how the French sailors felt about that!
Macron probably hoped to get a seat at the war table to justify keeping his state of emergency powers in place and thereby to survive the next election. I will be so glad to see the back of him.

Posted by: frances | Sep 19 2018 19:50 utc | 332

Israel is now in the position of the Crusaders. They've rejected making any peace with their neighbours. Are we in 1187, and the battle of Hattin? The answer is for the army, perhaps. They're useless. The airforce is still good, as we've just seen. How long can an airforce act on its own?

Posted by: Laguerre | Sep 19 2018 19:58 utc | 333

Forget my previous comment. I've just read that the RAF Tornadoes had left area about an hour before...

Posted by: et Al | Sep 19 2018 19:59 utc | 334

IL 20 incident.
What we know so far:

4 Israeli F-16's Block 60Adv. on Sept. 17 between 21:30-22:30 (Ankara Time) commence attacking manuevers against Syrian targets claiming hitting Syrian warehouses with material they intnded to deliver to Hizballah in Libanon.

The attack from said jets lasted from 30 to 50 minutes. (number of jets is low for such a sustained attack run)

Prior to the run those jets were spotted climbing from near sea bed level, from where the Turkish-Cypriot State (not recognized by Cyprus) unofficialy declared EEZ begins and spans towards Syria's EEZ that borders Lebanon airspace.

On the edge of the side of the Turkish-Cypriot State borders with the Greek-Cypriot state a British naval/air force base is located Akrotiri base (everyone wants those bozo's out, including Turks and Cypriots and Lebanese and Syrians and Russians). The radars (at least this is what israel claims) pick up movement seemingly coordinated with the israeli attack run (according to Israeli news sources) consisting of two RAF Typhoons climbing above Akrotiri base (which extremely narrow airspace belongs to Britain) and follow a holding pattern above selected Israeli jets flight path, uppon entering (semi-official) Turkish ("Turkish Pseudostate" according to Cyrpus and Greece's foreign policy towards Turkey since illegal Turkish invasion in Cyprus in 1974) airspace. Israeli jets pass from bellow before possitioning for an attack run restricted by manuevering within probably ONLY the Turkish-Cypriot airspace.

A few hours before a deal between Turkey and Russia is officialy signed for de escalation in Idlib province of Syria.
Putin meets Hungary's PM Orban (that spearheads the closed EU borders for immigrants from Syria policy) the day before and pledges support (and arm sales?) to Orban.
Same day Angela Merkel dismisses claims of her Inteligence Chief about doubting the attacks against immigrants in Germany of not being originally from neo nazis alluding to a false flag operation. Intel Chieff is dismissed to another post not related with German Inteligence.

During israel's attack run with (ONLY?) 4 F-16's for 30 to 50 mins against Syrian coastal targets, Syrian air defense response according to the reports accidentaly downs an IL 20 electronic warfare and signals collection airplane belonging to the Russian military operating inside Syrian and Lebanese airspace over the sea, 35 kilometers from Syria shoreline, ussualy operating from Latakia airbase, Syria.

Other reports from Russian MoD claim detected launches from nearby French frigate equiped with cruise missile weapons towards Syria. French denny involvement. French frigate is parked inside Turkish-Cypriot states EEZ with a Turkish frigate shadowing it. (Turkey has a permanent deployment there since they treat it as their own EEZ too, still unrecognized by the UN, Greece and Cyrpus after 974 invasion.)

Russian MoD claims israeli jets used "tactics" to confuse Syrian air defense and held IAF responsible for the loss of the IL20 warfare and detection plane with their 15 crew of Russian specialists onboard.

Israel confirms, blames Iran Syria Lebanon.
Syria blames israel.
Russia later retracts blaming, saying "unfortunate circumstances" were resonsible.
French deny involvement.
British were not asked, they neither claimed anything.
Turkey does nothing, neither condemns neither condones.
US is nowhere to be found although it has major asset presence in the area.
Later US Defence chief says the Russian loss is tragic and sends condolenses.

Rumors circulate for Russian No Fly Zone around Turkish-Cypriot State, Syrian EEZ and coastline and Lebanon, after Putin claims adequate measures for protection of servicemen will be taken from Russia in Syria.
Turkey still says nothing. Britain nothing. France nothing. US nothing. Israel noting.

Other projects in the immediate vicinity and the connected airspaces are:

Turkey disputing Cyprus mining rights in it's EEZ (Cyprus EEZ).

French US and Israeli mining oil/gas discovery operations both in Israel EEZ.

Cyprus EEZ and Turkish-Cypriot state(not ready yet because of International Law legal issues, Turkish Cyprus illegal occupation talks/disputes to the UN)

Israeli underwater electrical cable laying project to Greece, Crete Island (connecting Israel with the EU)

Archaelogical underwater research and sites spanning from Cyprus all the way across to Egypt and Lebanon/Israel, subteranean antiquities dating back to 5.000 BC megalithic etc.

Posted by: Greece | Sep 19 2018 20:00 utc | 335

"...Russia and France would know what Israel tried."
Posted by: alaric | Sep 18, 2018 10:08:28 PM | 212
I am inclined to think Macron was in on the plan for Israel to FF one of France's own ships; that is why the govt was so quick off the mark with denials of blame when no one had blamed them for anything.

Posted by: frances | Sep 19 2018 20:11 utc | 336

Posted by: Peter AU 1 | Sep 18, 2018 10:27:55 PM | 213
re Syria not being given Friend/Foe recog software for the s-200. As the s-200s and suspected s-300s are all integrated into Russia's systems I don't see how that would be possible.

A poster on zerohedge said: "kral 134 From what I read some time ago the S-200 warhead has a kill range of 150 meters and is armed with a proximity fuse. If that is right, the missile would only need to pass with 150 meters of the Russian plane while tracking the Israeli planes or missiles to take it out."

This seems more plausible than Russia allowing missiles to be blind when they might be in the air, perhaps the retired Russian may have been relying on what the set up was some years ago?

Posted by: frances | Sep 19 2018 20:26 utc | 337

332

As far as purchasing power is concerned, you know very well that
Syria has tried to buy the S300 system from Russia and got naught.

Same here with Iran that has been waiting for years and had to develop its own.

I do not have the money to buy them. Alas.

As far as detonating myself in Israel, this would amount to zilch. And you know it.

But since you want to win the argument, you won.

Posted by: CarlD | Sep 19 2018 20:38 utc | 338

reply to: Harry and Peter...
I don't think s300's are coming to Syria anytime soon...I'll stand as arbiter and remind you both in lets say 1 month if you're keen.
Posted by: dan | Sep 19, 2018 6:05:39 AM | 266
Are all of you familiar with the Assad interview in which he says about a year ago that the S-300 have been delivered and training is well underway? There is also a Russian military official I don't recall which one who also says they are training Syrians on the S-300.
Apparently the way this went was Syria was "given" some existing Russian S-300s. This allows both parties to say with a straight face that the prepaid for S-300s have not yet arrived.
Sorry I don't have the links handy, this all happened about a year ago.

Posted by: frances | Sep 19 2018 21:07 utc | 339

Russia imposes no fly zone.

Anyone seen this. Sorry if already posted


http://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/news/world-news/3173-russia-imposes-no-fly-zone-for-israeli-military-aircraft-around-syria

Posted by: Mike | Sep 19 2018 21:38 utc | 340

RE the supposed no-fly zone in place now in the Eastern Med: I hate to say it, but that's not a no-fly zone, at least how I understand the term. The Russian navy drills which are responsible for said no-fly zone are taking place in international waters. Russia can't close the airspace above these designated excercise areas forever, or do it simply at will. I'm pretty sure there are established and adhered-to rules in place (maritime law) for occupying parts of international waters, how long you can do that, how often, etc.
So I think what the Russians are doing there is a show of force. Directly addressing Israel, no doubt. And Israel will certainly refrain from pulling off another of their stupid, dangerous stunts tomorrow, yeah. But even in the near future, Israel will violate Syria and flip everybody else a bird again, whenever they feel like it. They will bomb Syrian soil again, killing people and destroying precious military infrastructure and hardware, sabotaging progress. Russia, more than any other country, including the US, could put an end to this, easily. No signs that they might do it, not even now. But who knows, maybe they will wisen up. I'm not without hope.

RE Greece | 336
Thank you for the Cyprus angle! Found that very interesting. One could add to what you wrote that Cyprus is not a member of NATO. Hard to imagine that they are OK with this madness going on in their neighborhood.

Posted by: Scotch Bingeington | Sep 19 2018 21:48 utc | 341

Greece @336

Russia later retracts blaming, saying "unfortunate circumstances" were responsible.

No. Putin's comments were not a retraction, just a clarification. He noted that Syria's attack was both illegal and against procedures established by Russia and Israel to prevent such an incident.

Turkey does nothing, ...

Turkey did do something that day! Turkey refused to allow SAA to enter Idlib.

... neither condemns neither condones.

Erdogan’s Advisor: Israel Provoked IL-20 Incident To Sabotage Idlib Agreement.

Yasin Aktay, a senior advisor of Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, said that Israel provoked the Il-20 incident in order to sabotage the “positive atmosphere” that resulted of the Russian-Turkish agreement on the Syrian governorate of Idlib.

But this is spin. The "positive atmosphere"! is nothing but a smiley face bandaid.

Erdogan's refusal to allow entry to Idlib was not received well. That's why the meeting lasted 5 hours and no questions were taken. Just 10 days before, at their meeting in Tehran, Russia and Putin had expected Turkey to accede to the plan to liberate Idlib.

Erdogan was very solicitous during the short press conference on September 17. While he's usually solicitous toward Putin, he was more nervous about it this time. It's likely that he knows that Putin no longer trusts him.

But Putin's trust is essential if Erdogan wants to continue to play Putin by extending his occupation of Idlib again and again.

The near breakdown in Rus-Turk relations is the overlooked backdrop to the Israeli attack. And this leads to the question: was the Israeli attack meant to put Erdogan back into Putin's good graces?

The fact is, there is nothing about the Idlib agreement that would displease Israel so much that they would risk burning bridges with Russia. Russia already knows what pleases or displeases the Israelis! Israel doesn't need to "act out" to show their displeasure. And Israel wouldn't want to risk their ability to attack Iranian interests in Syria. That would make them less safe (in their eyes).

But burning bridges with Russia might be worth it if it allowed an 'Assad must go!' Coalition partner to gain a significant advantage. THAT is a strategic advantage.

So we have a new question to ponder: Did Israel attack to buttress Erdogan's claim to Idlib?

We have a precedent that argues in the affirmative: the FUKUS threat to bomb if SAA attacked Syria had provided political cover for Erdogan's occupation of Idlib.

<> <> <> <> <> <> <>

Although a DMZ and a plan of action was agreed, I suspect that Idlib will continue to be fully in Turk hands (Turkey patrols on the Idlib side and Russia patrols on the other side) and I foresee Turkey continuing to fail to reign in the terrorists (who have already rejected the Rus-Turk agreement).

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Sep 19 2018 22:15 utc | 342

frances 340

I looked up that interview, and although I didn't find it, I found and RT report mentioning it. According to RT the interview was with a Hezbollah TV channel or media. The RT report was dated 2013. Five years ago. Perhaps Assad was trolling the Israeli's. Whatever it was, going by Israel's when Putin squeezed them a bit with talk of S-300, the Israeli's do not think Syria currently has an operational S-300, and if they do, why hasn't it been used in the last five years.

I had replied to your earlier post @338. Not sure if I forgot to hit post or it's held up in the stack waiting for b to retrieve.
The comment you quote from zerohedge is my comment from earlier in this thread.

Posted by: Peter AU 1 | Sep 19 2018 22:32 utc | 343

Also,

We may now have a "frozen conflict" and war of attrition. Assad must go! will hope that starving Syria of resources will hamper Syrian recovery and impoverish the Syrian people so much that they turn against Assad.

With the establishment of the Idlib DMZ, the opportunity for Jihadis to kill Russians so that they "pay a price" - as neocon warmongers have urged - may have passed. But the Israeli attack has accomplished that goal (in a sly way).

The next test for Erdogan is whether he will abide by USA demand that countries stop trading with Iran. If he can win back Putin's trust, maybe he will continue to trade with Iran. If he can't, it seems likely that he will re-commit to NATO/'Assad must go!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Sep 19 2018 22:33 utc | 344

@CarlD #339

I repeat: S-300 is not the only AD system in the world, Russia is not the only AD systems vendor in the world. You say yourself that "Iran had to develop their own AD systems" - perfect! Then they can both sell those to Syria or use them against flying IAF jets anywhere they want.

Surely you can not buy AD system, but i explicitly told about asymmetric m ans you can employ to raise the price Israel has to pay for the attacks and thus impede them.

But you do not, nor does Iran, thus according to your formula you custom-tailored to pick on Russia, you all are equally "indifferent"

Posted by: Arioch | Sep 19 2018 22:47 utc | 345

Was Israel & France trying to start WWIII (with USA's blessing) as Fort Russ believes?

I highly doubt it. No one benefits from a hot war in ME.

Let's say that Russia had attacked the French ship. Russia would still have the data that shows Israeli involvement and that if Russia couldn't use that to hault the conflict, they would almost surely target Israel in any end-of-the-world nuclear exchange.

IMO it's not logical that they were trying to start WWIII.

Furthermore, the 'Assad must go!' Coalition already has a strategy in Syria: occupy strategic territory; starve Syria of resources to hamper reconstruction; restrict trade to impoverish the people; and ultimately win as Syrian people turn against Assad.

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Sep 19 2018 23:16 utc | 346

Stumpy @ 206 "Just to reinforce the notion that a retaliatory display of force by Russia might bring about the R2P response the FUKUS is angling for. If the Israeli F-16s really pulled off the feint that caused an onside goal by the SAA, well, quite the maneuvre, be it luck or sheer gall."

Just speculating here, since the authorities involved are not about to issue the definitive word on what transpired (and may never):
I am beginning to seriously consider the possibility, voiced by some, that the French Frigate downed the plane and the Israeli "feint," as you put it, was designed to set up plausible deniability with the claim that Syria downed it by accident. The French were too quick to deny something they were not accused of and the Americans too hasty to blame it on the Syrians.

This clever and diabolical plan was designed to provoke an immediate military response from the Russians, a response that would have been handcuffed by the loss of the very EW plane that likely had a hand in disabling the French frigate's missile launchers during the US-led cruise missile assault after the Ghouta false flag. The British planes were in the air ready to "retaliate" to the rash Russian attack and the US aircraft carrier, the Truman, on its way to take advantage of the window available to it with the loss of the Russian EW reconnaissance plane.

But the Russian military response never materialized and the diplomatic response, if it did indeed assist in covering up the real crime, would have baffled them and left them unsure what to do next.

Think about the narrative had the Russians responded as expected. If there was any dispute over who shot down the Russian plane (Syrians, Israelis, French) and the Russians had reacted by sinking a French frigate, the Russians would more easily have been portrayed as careless aggressors and the incident would have become a possible rallying point to assemble a "coalition."

Putin's response reset the narrative in Russia's favour and turned it in a direction unplanned for by the enemy, I am sure. There will now be a pause during which an "investigation" will be conducted. While that is happening, the Russians will work rapidly to prepare and plan for a confrontation on their terms. The rules of engagement with Israel will change permanently. Everyone is now waiting to see what the Russians will do.

Posted by: Activist Potato | Sep 20 2018 1:10 utc | 347

Jackrabbit @347

“Was Israel & France trying to start WWIII (with USA's blessing) as Fort Russ believes?

I highly doubt it. No one benefits from a hot war in ME.”

Not true. Israel benefits.

The French probably did nothing beyond sipping wine and indulging in croissants. If a missile came from the vicinity of the French ship, it likely came from an Israeli sub. In other words the Israelis may have just set up Russsian and French soldiers to start a major war. Think about that. Israel has so little respect for life that it’s leadership is willing to try and start a major war to get their misguided jihadists paradise in Syria. Sick.

Israel is the greatest threat to humanity and the planet. It’s a violent, rascist country that needs to be stopped.

Posted by: Alaric | Sep 20 2018 1:26 utc | 348

i mostly agree with jackrabbit @347.. i don't think israel and france were trying to start ww3 here.. sure - israel will benefit from all the mayham up to a point.. in fact, i would say israel has not benefited from it's war on syria to date.. that could still change, but so far - i would say they are on the short end of the stick here, and especially so since the downing of the surveillance plane.. and, they are showing their true colours, thinking they can make a demand that iran not be in syria, when they are flaunting international law quite regularly...

as for jackrabbits comment on just how treacherous turkey under erdogan, or israel is and how they could work together.. anything is possible, but i am presently leaning towards erdogan recognizing he has to take a side and leaning towards russian-iran.. we'll see come early november.. by that time erdogans agreement with putin will be more visible to know whether there was any seriousness in his agreement... putin will be picking this up beforehand, and in fact probably already as a good read on erdogan.. all in all, we continue to edge towards ww3 with the extremely pragmatic and disciplined leader of russia helping to stave off this to date.. he gets very little help from a number of the other players here, israel especially.. israel is a fuck up basically.. their whole premise at present is one big cluster fuck..

Posted by: james | Sep 20 2018 1:33 utc | 349

Again, Israel tried to create a war between NATO and Russia and they were caught in the act. That is a major victory for Russia and Syria even if it cost the lives of the Russian crew. We should thank the Russians for being level headed and intelligent. Putin will try to lower tensions but Russia will react in the appropriate fashion.

Posted by: Alaric | Sep 20 2018 1:37 utc | 350

So many of the Putin apologists rabbit on about what Putin said - who cares what Putin says it is what Russia does to aid the Syrians in this fight between the Syrian state and the apartheid zionist entity which really matters - not whatever it is some slimy pol said on a specific day.
The sum of what Russia has done is to prevent any alternative energy pipeline going through Syria. That is about it. The Idlib cave-in combined with Putin's insistence on supporting the zionist entity whenever push comes to shove tells us that when a status quo is reached russia will retain their oil pipeline monopoly and the zionist entity will continue to bluster and bully in the region, altho eventually being careful not to annoy russia too much.
As for the Syrians - the people who really matter since it is Syria we are discussing, the inaction over numerous illegal and 100% unjustified military actions by zionists in Syria while russia sits on its arse mumbling platitudes, and zionists continue to try and fragment Syria, tells us that the russian political elite really couldn't give a flying f**k about the people of Syria.

Posted by: Debsisdead | Sep 20 2018 2:05 utc | 351

@352 debs.. i don't agree with your take on the total of what russia has done here.. as i see it the west is determined to call all the shots and destroy or screw what countries it decides to screw.. witness libya and compare it to syria.. syria could be suffering a much worse fate which would please a number of players here... sometimes i think you are really wrong and this is one of them.. what the fuck is russia supposed to do with a herd of warmongers wanting to rain mayham and murder down on a particular location, and apparently ready to bring on ww3? i don't see myself apologizing for russia here either... i don't agree with you.. maybe it is best to leave it their..

Posted by: james | Sep 20 2018 2:32 utc | 352

''warmonger apologists'' is my new term to refer to those who think putin isn't doing enough..

Posted by: james | Sep 20 2018 2:34 utc | 353

Keep your eye on the prize. Peace in syria, That means exterminate all jihadis and do not let them return to their country of origin. Remember the French permanent state sank the peace ship Rainbow Warrior in New Zealand and Australia aided the Frech saboteurs escape.

Remember it is the States of Israel, Turkey, KSA, USA and all their running dogs that supply jihadis with arms, hospitalsm cash, sustenance to carry out their murderous game.

Certainly Russia wants all the jihadis dead anywhere but on Russian soil. Putin has permanently demonstrated his calm capacity to manage sabotage and treachery and hasn't wavered. The western warmongers must be apoplectic at how he has managed Erdy the goon. may peace reign.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Sep 20 2018 3:13 utc | 354

Not only were the Israeli actions directly responsible for the death of Russian servicemen, but no one is even addressing the fact that Israel feels it has the right to destroy Syrian ammunition used to fight terrorists. Apparently they can do whatever the hell they want. Free ride.

Posted by: rcentros | Sep 20 2018 3:20 utc | 355

Debs

See my comment @36.

"Cave-in" implies that Putin backed-down. There's no evidence to support that.

R+6 was not deterred by threats of USA bombing:

1) They prepared a spy network that allowed them to defuse the threat of ff.

2) They had already begun initial phases of the attack (like bombing runs).

R+6 have not given up on Idlib:

1) It is foolhardy to fight Turkey unless necessary.

2) Putin negotiated a sensible plan of action (with DMZ and timetable);

3) If Putin had given up on Idlib we would have seen a howl of protest from Iran and Syria.

Putin didn't "cave-in" he got played and was forced to negotiate an alternative plan. There's a significant difference.

The talk of Rus-Turk trade relations at the new conference was ominous. It was clear (to me) that the improvements in trade could be quickly be reversed if Erdogan does not stick to the plan. As james mentioned, we will soon see which side Erdogan chooses.

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Sep 20 2018 3:21 utc | 356

Arch Bungle (@ 311)
Most likely weakness, Russia is not the deterrent against US/Nato aggression, not because they do not want to perhaps but because they simply cant - due weakness compared to US/Nato abilities.
Posted by: Zanon | Sep 19, 2018 1:52:07 PM | 313

I love your devotion to incurious ignorance.
NATO is showboating.
Putin has been outsmarting them, and slaughtering their ter'rists, for 3 years. And during that time (1000+ days) they haven't been able to dream up ONE idea good enough to reverse the situation.
So when a collective Brains Trust the size of NATO hasn't stumbled on 1 clever idea in 1000 days, it's a pretty safe bet that they never will.

As for comparative weakness, neither Russia nor NATO can be certain of the outcome if there's a direct NATO vs Russia military confrontation. However, it has become patently obvious that NATO is too stupid, unimaginative and chickenshit to find out.

Let's face it, if NATO's indignant pussies, wimps and Fairy Queens were as tough/smart as they're telling themselves and each other then they would already have given it their best shot.
But they haven't.
And Showboating is so much SAFER....

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Sep 20 2018 5:50 utc | 357

So, I'm slightly curious about what the French media is making of all this, but not being a French-speaker I'll need other people to fill me in.
Are they making any reference at all to the presence of the Auvergne, and the Russian claim that they tracked a missile being fired from it?

There are two possibilities I see here:
a) The French co-ordinated with the Israeli in some (admittedly, hard-to-fathom) scheme to confuse and confound the Russians and Syrians
b) The Israelis used that frigate as cover in the same way they used that Russian IL-20 as cover.

Either way I would imagine that the French are now extremely sorry that frigate was anywhere near all that sound and fury.

But it its the latter then you would have to imagine that the French military hierarchy is furious about the Israeli disregard for anyone's life but their own. If I were Putin I'd be having a quiet word with Macron, asking him if maybe, just maybe, the French are fools for sticking their nose where they are not welcome.

Posted by: Yeah, Right | Sep 20 2018 7:54 utc | 358

This plane was very IMPORTANT for Russian operations in Syria. Joos did it intentionally! It was a preparation for bigger attack.

Posted by: hestroy | Sep 20 2018 9:47 utc | 359

Could Obama actually be right about something? Syria is becoming a quagmire for Russia

Posted by: Anunnaki | Sep 20 2018 10:47 utc | 360

“Tragic set of circumstances.” Is that also what he told the families of the dead Russian soldiers?

Posted by: Anunnaki | Sep 20 2018 11:01 utc | 361

LOL

Another pro russian guy that refuse to condemn Israel, spread lies that it might be..Iran's fault!:

Will The Russian-“Israeli” Investigation Reveal An Iranian Role In The Syrian Shoot-Down?
https://eurasiafuture.com/2018/09/18/will-the-russian-israeli-investigation-reveal-an-iranian-role-in-the-syrian-shoot-down/

Posted by: Zanon | Sep 20 2018 11:11 utc | 362

"The Russian army will enter Idlib in large numbers escorted by the Turkish army without even having to fight any battles at all. This is why Israel downed the Russian military transport plane to try to wreck this deal which is a huge victory for Syria."

rcentros | Sep 19, 2018 11:20:17 PM | 356: "Not only were the Israeli actions directly responsible for the death of Russian servicemen, but no one is even addressing the fact that Israel feels it has the right to destroy Syrian ammunition used to fight terrorists."

The Jewish State has been fundamentally the terrorist state. -- The Jewish Bolsheviks' bloody progeny has no respect for human life.

The holo-biz supremacists in the US/EU/UK/ Jewish State defy all rules of decency, beginning with the Jewish Power assault on the freedom of speech and freedom of information: http://www.unz.com/runz/american-pravda-holocaust-denial/
http://www.unz.com/pgiraldi/israels-fifth-column-2/

The Israel-firsters are the plague upon humanity.

Posted by: Anya | Sep 20 2018 12:00 utc | 363

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Sep 19, 2018 11:21:09 PM | 357

I've been trying avoid the debate ping pong lately since no one ever changes their mind on the basis of what someone else has posted, but I do want to clarify what I meant about Russia caving in or giving in to Turkey and by extension fukusi over Idleb. You posted:
Cave-in" implies that Putin backed-down. There's no evidence to support that.

No there is nothing to support that yet but there will be pretty soon because as I posted last week before russia backed off, Syria simply cannot survive as a nation state with a big mob of mercenaries and looney toon fundies smack dab in their territory. Especially not one who has a supply pipeline through Turkey.
As long as the loony toons don't cause any trouble for Russia with the russian pipeline/s and whatever Syrian ports russia will be using, I reckon the russians will be content - especially since they have also pretty much left Iran & Hizbollah out of business going forward - meaning there is nobody casting a beady eye at turkey, or russia for that matter, to make sure the fundies don't create deals where they can attack syrian civilians outside of Idlib, then creep back under yurkish protection.

I am certain that is what they will do and now that russia has made the decision not to neutralise the mercs and fundies, they won't be revisiting that deal since I reckon it would have taken heavy duty arm-twisting by russia on the syrian government, to get them to agree on having a huge no-go area. One chocka with terrorists on Syria's sovereign territory as well as giving defacto permission for turkey to stay, cos remember turkey like amerika, france and israel is an univited guest in Syria. This deal was made by either russia giving permission for turkey to stay on in a region they illegslly invaded or as I said, by forcing Syria to agree to it. Whatever it was, it now makes a return to the pre 2011 Syria border unlikely ever - which makes recovery of either Golan or the amerikan occupied territory never ever.

I recognise that many don't accept that and we could go backwards and forwards about this ad infinitum.
Syrians mat be lucey for the rest of 2018, the fighting season is nearly over, but now that turkey has permission to liaise with the terrorists, the horror may stay away from Syrians until april/may 2019.

Then spring next year a re-armed re equipped & probably retrained gang of arseholes are going to slip outta Idlib and wreak havoc on Joe/Jo Syrian, planting chemical weapons and blaming it on the government, blowing up anything they consider apostate and generally making life as scary for Syrians as it was two years ago.
As long as russia, which will have drawn down its military deployments, is sure its assets are left alone and Iran and Hezbollah are tightly restricted in what they do, the arseholes will be back to free rein in destroying the integrity of Syria as a nation state.

The agreement is ludicrous Iran and Hezbollah are in Syria by invitation of the elected Syrian government are restricted, but turkey, france, amerika and the apartheid state who have invaded are not allowed to be controlled by that same elected syrian government - why? cos russia says so.

As I said disagree with me all you want, but I am certain that come spring 2019 and maybe even this year the fundies are going to blow up anything in Syria which moves then blow up everything stationary until it does move.
This is a certainty, as is russia continuing to ignore every egregious fukusit action while the russia can do no wrong types devise some weak arsed rationalization that seeks to blame everyone but russia for this mess.

So: To be continued

Posted by: Debsisdead | Sep 20 2018 13:12 utc | 364

I think we can all be relieved that Russia is toting the line that SYRIA accidentally shot down the plane carrying the soldiers. THis is the line that the US originally put out. Thank goodness for Putin. This 'line' will allow Russia to save face and not seek retaliation against Israel to further escalate the ending of hostilities in Syria. Russia's neocon military will only put up with so much 'doing nothing'. Warmongering Israel needs to be brought to heel, and fast.

Posted by: christy | Sep 20 2018 13:20 utc | 365

Debs

You're suspicions of Russian intentions in Syria stem from a lack of context. The Syrian conflict is only one aspect of the NATO-SCO Cold War. SCO is fighting for a multi-polar world that respects sovereignty. In that context, Russia is motivated to help Syria regain all of its territory (not necessarily quickly) and to patiently work with partners to build consensus (Turkey).

This approach has pitfalls. Those who constrain themselves with principles can be played. Those who don't fully grasp how those without principles will seek to play them can be played to a greater degree.

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Sep 20 2018 15:01 utc | 366

French newspapers have mentioned France in the story in less than one sentence, usually sarcastic at the Russians and Syrians, explaining that "after suspecting France..." etc. So that in one shot they also whitewash Israel.
http://www.lefigaro.fr/international/2018/09/18/01003-20180918ARTFIG00145-damas-abat-un-avion-de-son-allie-russe-moscou-accuse-israel.php

Posted by: Mina | Sep 20 2018 15:12 utc | 367

We ALL know relatively NOTHING of what just happened.
all of us.
So the best way to try and understand what happened and where this is going is to look at the recent past.
Remember 2015? 3 short years ago?
what was this situation then and what is it now?
Ans so many ready to throw in the towel after (yet another) relatively small incident?
What about all those other incidents? Now that we have time to look back, What lasting effect did they have?
The trend is your friend - Russia will manage this as well as it has managed everything else since 2015 in this conflict.

warmonger apologists indeed!

Posted by: alpaka | Sep 20 2018 15:41 utc | 368

Putin adores Netanyahu. You would not mind him even if he killed Assad.
Assad should step down because only Israel will stop supporting ISIS.

Posted by: Nina | Sep 20 2018 15:47 utc | 369

@hestroy #360

> Joos did it intentionally! It was a preparation for bigger attack.

And, two days after they were successful in it, where is the attack?

Posted by: Arioch | Sep 20 2018 15:56 utc | 370

@365 debs... i agree with most of what you say in your post to jackrabbit.. for me, russia is patient - too patient for most here, including you... but, i do believe russia will reach a breaking point, and that point will come in 2019.. so, your hypothesis on the jihadis wreaking havoc on syria again sounds very likely to me.. what i don't agree with is the idea that russia's patience is endless..

@367 jackrabbit quote "This approach has pitfalls. Those who constrain themselves with principles can be played. Those who don't fully grasp how those without principles will seek to play them can be played to a greater degree." i agree... however, i do believe russia is capable of seeing all this.. is russia being played by turkey at present? probably.. i do believe russia sees this and has a response to it over the course of time.. it might not be what some want here right now..

Posted by: james | Sep 20 2018 18:17 utc | 371

What has changed since the shooting down of the IL-20?
Russian soldiers are now patrolling the demarcation line on the Golan heights.
There is a real (but not necessarily permanent) air and sea blockade around Syria. Or the multilevel air block NW Israel (Igor Bundy) has been installed as mentioned by 381.
The US has suggested that the "refugees" at the Rubkan camp (some of whose members have been trained as "militants/terrorists by US and UK special forces) now could be allowed to quit the Tanf area and rejoin the Syrian Gov.held areas.
----

One thing that is slightly confusing is that witnesses say they saw several planes being shot down. If true, this fits in with a couple of wilder scenarios, ie. The length of time of the entire episode and the extremely short period of the actual "attack" and downing of the Russian plane. ie were there more IDF planes than stated? Also did the Russians fire the S400's, or did any IDF planes get hit?
Why no comments/recognition about the US planes in the vicinity?
(336 Thanks "Greece" for pointing out many other oddities)
The "warehouse that was hit, was in fact ONLY destroyed by about 4 missiles. A white "building" at the southern end shows no burn marks, and the inhabited area to the north (of the photo) was not hit either. Why? An informant in there?
---
Revenge is said to be sweet - but I expect that Putin will take action "that the world will know is taken" (But it will not necessarily be a military action)

Posted by: stonebird | Sep 20 2018 19:02 utc | 372

Russia is holding a snap drill in the eastern Mediterranean until the 26th. This ties in with some reports of denying airspace while who knows what gets moved into Syria.

Posted by: Woogs | Sep 20 2018 20:02 utc | 373

sure was a lot of hasbara trolls on this particular moa thread!

Posted by: james | Sep 20 2018 21:47 utc | 375

Why would one call posters who criticize Zionism, Jews and Israel "hasbara trolls" unless...one ourselves were actually the real deal hasbara troll?

Posted by: USA=ISIS | Sep 20 2018 22:29 utc | 376

Pretend YOU are Putin for a moment. You know the "crazies" will not stop until their goal of "Full Spectrum Dominance" is achieved. Would YOU ...in your Putin persona... A)Talkm tough...bit... Continually appease and kowtow to the "crazies" and their minions...or B) Draw a line in the sand knowing that confrontation is inevitable... and actually strike back and call em out... Bring it on Mo-Fo's .

Or C) None of the above.

Posted by: The cycnic | Sep 20 2018 23:26 utc | 378

@380 the cycnic.. i guess i go with a variation of all three, lol... i think putins inability to give the instant gratification that the armchair warriors are looking for is discouraging for the armchair warriors... but then again it ain't fucking real like it is for putin and the real warriors who are involved in dealing with the wests bullshit 24/7...so, a combo of all 3 makes the most sense to me..

Posted by: james | Sep 21 2018 0:05 utc | 379

putin is an ex?commie lickspittle of jews who spouts their holohoax line
of bull and doesn't seem to grasp whom they are actually fighting.

it would seem that the only potential actors capable of rectifyng the
situation are the "red" chinese.

Posted by: dick fuld | Sep 21 2018 6:49 utc | 380

@ dick fluid 381

Late to work. Your pay will be docked.

Posted by: Peter AU 1 | Sep 21 2018 7:22 utc | 381

@The cycnic #379

Minimax games, pal.

1) Draw the line but keep it private, never let anyone guess where it is and then play you. Keep your choices YOUR choices.
2) if the line is crossed - re-think the current configuration, choose point and method of strike and do it without letting enemy to bring their defenses to the point by redundant warnings to them.

Posted by: Arioch | Sep 21 2018 8:14 utc | 382

379 383.

I liked james pick, though I have a few other thoughts. Sun Tzu comes to mind when I watch Putin's moves. The instant gratification crowd do have problems with this but viagra will help.

Posted by: Peter AU 1 | Sep 21 2018 8:38 utc | 383

I wish MoA could send mail alerts on replies :-D

while I understand that would make this forum much more complex beast than it is now (otherwise it would become used as mail-DDOSer)

Posted by: Arioch | Sep 21 2018 8:47 utc | 384

@The Cynic

We are all literate enough to ask our own pointless questions to deflect from the issue at hand and otherwise waste bandwidth.

Fact Number 1 is, the Turks, the Americans and the Russians de facto carved up Syria: the Turks get Afrin and Idlib (northwestern Syria). The Americans have invaded and occupied northeastern Syria with the vast majority of the productive oil fields. And the Russians got their warm water naval base and an airfield adjacent to the Mediterranean.

Fact Number 2 is, Russia never even asked the Americans or the Turks to leave Syria which the Russians themselves admit is illegally occupied by the aforementioned countries. We're not talking about fighting to force them to leave. The Russians are not even just nicely *asking* them to vacate occupied Syrian lands simply by bringing up the matter in UN Security Council. Just talking about this matter is not going to cause WWIII like the CIA Jewish trolls keep repeating.

Fact Number 3, Russia has been ruled by Jewish Bolsheviks and their descendants since at least the murder of Nicholas II. Read Solzhenitsyn. Solzhenitsyn was a captain in the Soviet Red Army. He personally experienced the degradation and dehumanization of the Russian people at the hand of the Bolshevik Jews and their collaborators like Stalin. Read what the Red Army soldiers did to 2 million young German girls, especially in the German border town of Neustettin on February 16, 1945: https://pictureshistory.blogspot.com/2009/10/frau-komm-rape-german-women-ww2.html?m=1

When you realize that Turkey has been ruled by the Jewish Donmeh [ organized and perpetrated the genocide of the first Christian nation of history, the Armenians whom the Jews perceived as their competitors] for the last 100 years; the Russians have been ruled over by the Jews since the Bolshevik uprising; and the US has been ruled by the same crypto Jewish elements colloquially referred to as Freemasons and such; it becomes clear that all three nations are doing the bidding of their Talmudic Jewish masters and NOT pursuing policies compatible with their respective national interests.

I hope CIA Hasbara agent provocateurs wil give it a rest.

Posted by: USA=ISIS | Sep 21 2018 9:09 utc | 385

> We're not talking about fighting to force them to leave.

Iran many times made looooud statements about "wiping Israel off the map" and what not.
Did they do it?
Who today listens to Iran's loud claims other than for laughter?

"Speak softly and carry a big stick".

Unless Russia is seriously considering to meet inevitable American "no" with nipping them - she would not "ask" and turn herself into a laugh cow.

Posted by: Arioch | Sep 21 2018 12:57 utc | 386

> 1945: pictureshistory.blogspot.com

....when the article starts with a well-known fake about "robbing German woman of her bicycle" you instantly know despite the name it has nothing about history.

Posted by: Arioch | Sep 21 2018 13:01 utc | 387

@various armchair generals

I'll have ago at explaining things, children.

Think of this as Muhammad Ali v. George Foreman 1974, for the Heavyweight Championship of the world. Ali is Russia/Putin and Foreman is the West -very powerful and hard-hitting but lacking in brains.

Foreman is currently bashing away at Ali,causing slight damage, but wearing himself down. Ali is keeping everything in reserve and enduring. Nothing is certain, but I know who I'd bet on in the long run.

Is that simple enough for you?

Posted by: julianj | Sep 21 2018 14:42 utc | 388

Israel obviously got the support by Russia to bomb Syria further:

Israel: 'Russian jet downing won't stop our Syria bombing runs'
https://www.alaraby.co.uk/english/news/2018/9/21/russian-jet-downing-wont-stop-israels-syria-bombing-runs

Posted by: Zanon | Sep 21 2018 14:47 utc | 389

@Zanon

Israel, Russia and the US of A (and the EU, for that matter) are ruled by the same cabal of Talmudic Jews. "America" or "Russia" are not enemies per se. They are different tools used and abused by the same Sabbatean/Frankist Jews. The entire internet is infested with trolls and agent provocateurs working hard to cover up this fact. The reality of purported enemies like Turkey, Russia and the US of A collaborating to carve up Syria between themselves speaks to this fact.

Posted by: USA=ISIS | Sep 21 2018 16:08 utc | 390

RE Greece | 336
Thank you for the Cyprus angle! Found that very interesting. One could add to what you wrote that Cyprus is not a member of NATO. Hard to imagine that they are OK with this madness going on in their neighborhood.

Posted by: Scotch Bingeington | 342

"Cyprus angle" is one of the most interesting angles in the area.
It is currently being arm twisted by Israel. Greece is being armtwisted by CIA/israel. All of that behind the scenes. Unfortunatelly Germany played a very big part in preparing this situation.
Have in mind that S-300 systems were actually being purchased by Cyprus (Hellenic Cyrpus - not the Turkish part forged after 1974 Turkish forces invasion, that Cypriots call "Pseudo-state") but the system was never acquired. I believe Putin came to power 2,5 years after that? System had to be locked down due to fiery Turkish protests and a few years later in round 2001 or 2003 I believe was transfered to Greece and put to operation after 2008 beside already existing Patriot systems. Now both operate in island of Crete.
For the love of me I cannot understand why Syria or Iran have not acquired an S-300 system yet. There were once rumors that supposedly Greece gave the system to the Mossad to reverse engineer it, but are largely unsubstantiated.
PAY ATTENTION TO THIS FACT. About a western nation having S-300. IMO the system must be decommisioned and turned back to Russia so in a case of turmoil and upheaval in Greece (like what Mossad wants to create) the system will be exploited and we get to seeit being fired against any other Foe than its Russian owners. Though it is believed system that is in Greece's possesion posses no threat in being missidentified as a more modern version of an S-300.

(Too large to quote in this post)

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Sep 19 | 343

Excellent finds!
Thank you!
Also an excellent analyses!
I heard from somewhere that half the IDF speaks Russian?
Maybe there is much more than Meets The Eye on this complicated relationship. Russia Israel Turkey --> Syria, Iran.

Posted by: Greece | Sep 21 2018 18:48 utc | 391

my other post won't pass through....


Thank you too Scott Bingeington, 342 (Cyprus acquired an S-300 back in 1997, why not Syria/Iran today?)
Also thank you too jackrabbit 343.
good analyses and find about Turkey!

Posted by: Greece | Sep 21 2018 19:00 utc | 392

WOAH!

Hold the Presses!!

Meanwhile in Greece...

Hours before the downing of the IL20 near Cyprus...

Athens Greece: Iranian Embassy attacked. "Anarchy" group Rubikon claimed responsibility with a video they uploaded on LiveLeak.

Link in Greek rest are kn English:
https://www.newsit.gr/egklhma/rouvikonas-gyalia-karfia-kai-mpogies-stin-presveia-tou-iran-ti-eipan-ston-frouro/2617514/

https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2018/09/17/574378/Iran-embassy-Greece-anarchist-group

Radio Free Europe (pshh..it's the CIA)
https://www.rferl.org/a/greek-anarchists-target-iranian-embassy-in-athens/29494288.html

Greek reporter Link: (quasi CNN - US linked outlet)
https://greece.greekreporter.com/2018/09/17/greek-anarchists-target-iranian-embassy-in-athens/

Youtube: https://youtube.com/watch?v=KWRxoMM2-EE

That's only a few days days after Greek government rearanged their members of Cabinet and to much of a suprise the leftist (Syriza party) government installed a right winger as a member of the Ministry of Internal security (heading the Police/Coast Guard etc) The new member apersonal friend of former P.M. (New democracy left wing party, Kostas karamanlis, that allegedly Russian GRU (I have given up hope deciphering whats really going on, we are in the RabbitHole now) discovered plot against him (as being the PM and future head of the Greek State at the time) from Mossad and CIA. Yes it was all over the news. MOSSAD and CIA were plotting to kill the Greek PM back in 2007/2008.

So Greek Anarchist group are controlled by the MOSSAD? Can this be?
I mean, reece is the safest place in the region.
There is just regular attacks against Greek owners (shops) downtown Athens (there used to be only Greeks there) mostly from foreign "immigrants" but every time Police tried to dismember these immigrant mafias every time some "Anarchist" group were killing Police, and attacking members of the parliament.
IS THERE A CHANCE THAT COULD BE MOSSAD?
NO! JEWS ARE GOOD PEOPLE! WHY WOUDL THEY ATTACK THE GREEKS IN THEIR OWN CITIES???
It doen't make sense....Jews are good people...Greeks and jews are friends..they always were...Why would Israel feel they have the need to "defende itself" by attacking Greeks in their own homes...(falls in to catatonic state) but but they been telling us Jews are our friends...

Posted by: Greece | Sep 22 2018 14:47 utc | 393

So let me recoup, I apologise since this is not the relevant thread for this, but, yet again there is no relevant subject matter label for silent weapons of mass destruction, disguised as civilian infrastructure and it's effects as "weather phenomenae".

NSA wiretaping scandal in 2004 Olympics in Athens, leaves 1 dead, (head of Vodaphone corp. security dprmnt)
Former PM Kostas Karamanlis was almost attacked by Mossad/CIA back in 2007/2008.
Greek economy show signs of implosion late 2009/2010. Economy implodes 2011, IMF comes in, EU reduces the burden by taking a percentage of the bailout on their shoulders (Right Wing German outlets and Nazi affiliates in Germany vehemently opposed this. IMO these are Mossad controlled)
2011/2017 economy stagnates, 700.000 between ages 20 and 50 leaving the country because of unemployment. Army starts to have a problem, military. draft reduces to almost 5 months!!! All defense projects collapse. Naval shipyards close. Air Force armamaments and research on lock down. Submarine fleet in need of immediate repairs. Navy in desperate condition. Stock market implodes, real estate liquidates, Israelis come in and start buying cheap strategic locations on the dollar. Crete almost becomes an israeli island. Jews initiate big project from israel to Crete and South Peloponisous (an alleged cable run for electricity, but is it only that?) cable will be adjoined through completely burnt up south Peloponisous (started burning in 2007 during alleged Mosad/CIA plot agains Greek PM Karamanlis) (word on the street it was because of Israeli future projects) (what?) ll the way up to Patrae, Korinthian/Saronic gulf and to ...wait for it... Athenin Northern shoreline, (Mati fire that killed 100 August 2018) and Penteli (The Vrill) Mountain (old cluster of 4 US research Naval bases doing also SIGINT) (word has it it was the most advanced SIGINT at the time, 1970's to 1980's)

Let me repeat: SIGINT NAVAL BASES.
So now we have a Israeli "cable project" which if you really measure the whole distance it will span, (is being kept under raps) it would connect all the way from Tel Aviv to freaking Qatar/Saudi Arabia - Burge Khalifa and the other weird contraption both adjoined with some cable through their interconnecting gulf.SO DO We have an israeli project going "the other way" all the way up to Athens????

WHAT FOR?

WHAT WAS THE RUSSIAN IL-20 GRU SIGINT PLANE MONITORING AND THE ISRAELIS DIDN'T LIKE??

WHAT IS THIS MR.TRUMP? ARE YOU KILLING YOUR OWN PEOPLE WITH SILENT WEAPONS?
California Homeless ~ VICTIMS of Weather & Economic Warfare
https://youtube.com/watch?v=zLWcntoOA2s

What happened with Russian IL-20 Mr.Trump???

Posted by: Greece | Sep 22 2018 15:15 utc | 394

This thread is a great demonstration of how the Empire’s various “information support operations” work: IDF Center for Consciousness Operations (inaugurated this year), USSOCOM MISO (formerly known as PSYOP), NATO StratCom Center of Excellence (based in Latvia), Ukrainian CIPsO, etc. A short explanation taken from Wikipedia is in order (emphases are mine):

PSYOP can encourage popular discontent with the opposition's leadership and by combining persuasion with a credible threat, degrade an adversary's ability to conduct or sustain military operations. They can also disrupt, confuse, and protract the adversary's decision-making process, undermining command and control. When properly employed, PSYOP have the potential to save the lives of friendly or enemy forces by reducing the adversary's will to fight. By lowering the adversary's morale and then its efficiency, PSYOP can also discourage aggressive actions by creating disaffection within their ranks, ultimately leading to surrender.

I’ll leave it to the reader to determine whom the Empire considers to be “the opposition’s leadership”.

Posted by: S | Sep 23 2018 12:29 utc | 395

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