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Syria – Ready To Start The Daraa Campaign
There are signs that the long expected liberation of the Daraa region in southwest Syria is about to begin. After a month of negotiations between Russia, Israel, Jordan and the U.S. no peaceful solution has been found. The various terrorist forces in the (green) area, including al-Qaeda aligned HTS and groups loyal to the Islamic State, have rejected all negotiations. For over a month Russian negotiators tried to convince locals to give up and to reconcile with the government. But the hardliners under the rebels have killed anyone who talked with the Russians. The U.S. government has warned against a Daraa operation and threatened to intervene.
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First airstrikes were launched by the Syrian government today against villages in the eastern part of the Deraa area. Some local fighting is ongoing. This is not yet the expected all out attack on the ‘rebel’ held areas but the testing of enemy forces. The Syrian army has assembled a large force to liberate the southwest. It includes ten thousands of soldiers, more than 100 tanks and lots of artillery. Short range air defenses have been moved into the area to protect the Syrian troops. A well coordinated attack on several front and multiple axes should allow for a quick victory.
Israel, with U.S. backing, might intervene in such an operation even if it makes little sense to do so. The current state can not continue indefinitely. Any intervention might well lead to a war for which Israel is unprepared. The Syrian army is willing and able to hit back into Israel. After seven years of war it is not afraid of a fight.
The Russian military is warning of a false-flag “chemical incident” in Deir Ezzor governorate. The Syrian Observatory reports that Islamic State remnants in the southeastern desert and in the Rukban camp, both under cover of the U.S. occupied zone around al-Tanf, prepare for a large attack on Syrian government forces. It claims that such an attack is an attempt to occupy the zone between al-Tanf and Albu Kamal at the Euphrates. Both operation would be planned diversions intended to draw Syrian forces away from Deraa and could provide excuses for U.S. intervention on the opposition side.
Late Sunday an airstrike destroyed a building in the Harri area near Albu Kamal directly on the Syrian-Iraqi border. The building was used as a headquarter for the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces (PMU) who are securing the border in coordination with the Syrian army in the fight against the Islamic State. More than 20 fighters were killed and more than 10 were wounded. This may have been in preparation for the reportedly planned large ISIS attack.
The strike makes otherwise little military sense. The PMU are nominally under command of the Iraqi government. They used a house on the Syrian side, some 200 meters from the border, as there was no adequate space on the Iraqi side. While they may have Iranian support and may help the Syrian army in some of its operations they are neither Iranian troops nor do they belong to the Lebanese Hezbullah.
The Syrian government accused the U.S. of having attacked the building. One U.S. source claims to CNN that the Israeli air-force attacked the site. I doubt that this is true. The U.S. has previously attacked Syrian government aligned forces in the area. It obviously continues to use ISIS to disrupt Syrian army operations. But as the U.S. needs Iraq it can not admit that it hit Iraqi forces. That would practically guarantee that the incoming Iraqi government would tell it to leave. It might have asked Israel to provide a cover for the strike.
Technically Israel could have done the attack. It would have needed tanker support and Jordanian compliance for overflight. Over the weekend Netanyahoo announced that Israel would hit Iranian forces all over Syria. But even CNN notes that the strike is untypical for Israel and does not make any sense.
Whoever committed the strike did so in an airspace that is controlled by the U.S. military. The leaders of the PMU in Iraq will use it to rally their forces against any U.S. bases in the country.
In north Syria Turkey is continuing its colonization of Syrian towns and regions. Turkish post offices, Turkish teachers, policemen and imans are pushing the population to adopt Turkish culture. It will more difficult to dislodge than the few thousand ‘rebels’ in the Deraa region.
juliania @66–
Thanks for your welcome reply. Some further explaining by Canthama and PavewayIV follows.
I’m copy/pasting the following discourse between Canthama and PavewayIV that occurred at SyrPers @4hrs ago. Context: Canthama relates the liberation of the Eastern portion of Homs desert then says: “Slowly, ISIS is being pushed away from Anbar and Euphrates, toward T3 and Tar as Sarayim. With the new SAA forces engaged on this battle, it is becoming evident that ISIS will be totally eliminated from Homs desert in few weeks.” This is what PavewayIV responds to:
“The US War of Energy Theft/Terrorism against the Syrian people didn’t ONLY include occupying the area to the east of the Euphrates. The original neocon Israeli-firster US deep state partitioning would have had a move to extend the SDFistan border south from Tabqa to Palmyra/T3 and then southward to Jordanian border near at Tanf. [Emphasis in Original]
“The idea was to deny Syria control over their entire border with Iraq and put it in the hands of SDF or some kind of anti-Assad Arab tribal forces. Secondary considerations were to cut off any oil/gas transit from SDFistan to Syria – either from Syrian or Iraqi sources. Third, the Iraqi Kurdistan oil pipeline through Syria was going through Raqqa to T3, then south to the Jordan border before continuing on to Haifa, Israel. ISIS is or was the placeholder excuse for CENTCOM/SDF land theft.
“US foreign policy psychopaths are – if nothing else – predictable. They still demand the Raqqa/Tabqa – Palmyra/T3 – at Tanf line as the western border of SDFistan. The number of Russian troops moved to Palmyra was unexpected and threw a gigantic monkey wrench into the US land-theft scheme. [My Emphasis]
“CENTCOM has head-chopper armies right now in Tabqa and at Tanf that were waiting to ‘fight ISIS’ towards Palmyra/T3 under US air cover while the SAA is busy in Daraa. The chemical weapons false flag may have been planned to blame on ISIS, somehow justifying the action (and US/SDF annexation of more Syrian territory).
“If history is any guide, the US Deep State will not abandon their plans, but double-down instead. They have to move while the SAA is busy in Daraa. I’m guessing a magical ISIS force (maybe with chemical weapons) will still be conjured up to justify a US move. One thing for sure: the US cannot ever let the SAA and Tiger Forces clean up Daraa and be free to go somewhere else. And Jordan, itself, will collapse if Syrian head-choppers give up and flee there. Israel simply can’t have that happen – they need an obedient, Saudi/US puppet Jordan.
“I’m afraid the frustrated, Israeli-firster US Deep State is bound to do something colossally stupid and inhumane at this point. God help us all.”
Canthama then responds:
“PavewayIV, always nice to have you around. Indeed the original plan from the coalition of stooges was way more ambitious, you are right they will never give up and will most likely double down. The area between al Tanf-Palmyra-Deir ez Zour-Tabqa was supposed to be in their hands so the suppose gas pipeline from Qatar-KSA-Jordan-Syria-Turkey would go ahead, then Qatar divorced KSA and that pipeline idea collapsed. Then came the Iraq Kurdistan possible pipeline from Kirkuk-Nineveh-Syria-Jordan-Haifa, it also collapsed due to the PMU brave attempt to take all Nineveh/Anbar Provinces and the Iraq Army advance toward Kirkuk to push Iraq Kurds back to the original Province lines.
“It has been all about cheap oil and gas to feed Israhell, this plan is as old as 2003 and got almost its peak when ISIS sold most if not all the stolen oil from Syria and Iraq thru Turkey to Israhell. The Israhelli economy is addicted to low low oil and gas prices, its economic model depends on it.
“Now the US/UK/France are trying their usual game to boost ISIS in Deir ez Zour to attack the SAA, to create ISIS cells in the Syrian desert (excuse to advance) and to threat Syria if a southern offensive happens.
“All of their attempt went south, al Bukamal was defended and ISIS attempt eliminated, ISIS is basically extinct in Suweida (a week maybe), completely wiped out of southern T2-T3 cell that was created from al Tanf, and finally and soon to be eradicated from all Homs desert (weeks away).
“The southern front offensive will be massive and it will hurt the terrorists and their supporting countries, and yes, Jordan will pay dearly for their double game throughout 8 years, the chances for a actual revolution in Jordan is very high in the next 12 months.
“We will see CW false flag in the next few weeks, this is the only way the US, France and UK will have to try to hold the advance of the SAA, it won’t help, the battle will be bloody and it will be to the end of the last terrorists.
“Al Tanf will continue to lose its importance as it will see pressure from the SAA and militias that will continuously prob its imaginary border pushing the US to attacks and risking losing either a plane or soldiers, but once the south is gone for the terrorists, a presence in al Tanf will be very risky for the US.”
Omitted from recent discussion about Syria is the big Russian troop presence around Palmyra, which is why I bolded Paveway’s remark. Russia’s move there shows there’s a whole lot more happening behind the scenes than is being said; the move was clearly strategic.
As for the supposed lack of SAA air defence at Daraa, multiple battalions of the newest version of the PantSir system are there to augment the already dense air defenses deployed with Tiger Forces all in anticipation of a Zionist or Outlaw force response. And Russian forces are imbedded with Tiger Forces. Neither the Zionists or Outlaw Empire have the requisite forces to deter SAA’s Basalt. If the Zionists do nothing, they won’t risk getting driven out of Golan; if Outlaw forces withdraw back into Jordan, they won’t risk being forced to do so anyway. But, are their commanders as nuts as Paveway believes? Only time will tell.
Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 21 2018 0:06 utc | 73
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