Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
May 10, 2018

Syria Sets New Rules For Israeli Strikes

When Trump killed the nuclear deal with Iran he gave Israel the chance to start a wider war with Syria. An earlier Israeli simulation of the situation had concluded:

The crisis created by the administration regarding the flaws of the nuclear agreement could be exploited to promote issues more urgent for Israel (mainly Iran’s missile program and presence in Syria).

The Israeli government claims that Iranian support for Syria is a threat to its country. That is a bogus claim. The Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahoo uses the "Iran threat" as boogeyman to divert attention from other issues like the various corruption cases against himself.

Over the last years Israel attacked Syrian army positions more than 100 times, often in support of al-Qaeda aligned "Syrian rebels". Syria did not respond as it was busy fighting against the Takfiri invasion within the country. In April Israel upped the ante when it attacked the T4 base in the middle of Syria from where Russian and Iranian forces support Syria's fight against ISIS. Iranian soldiers were killed in the attack. The Syrian air defense shot down at least one of the attacking Israeli F-16 jets. This shooting down of the Israeli jets was thought to have established a new balance, but Israel continued to provoke.

On Tuesday, just as Trump announced his breaking of the nuclear deal, Israel launched another strike on what it claimed were Iranian missiles in Syria targeted at Israel. The strike hit a Syrian army depot. Fifteen soldiers, some of them allegedly Iranians, were killed. Even the Israeli media had trouble to find an excuse for the illegal 'preemptive' attack:

Even if Iran had no intention of launching missiles at Israel on Tuesday, the alleged Israeli strike came along and conveyed the following message to the Iranians: You raised the likelihood of an attack on Israel, so we’re raising the threat level, despite the tensions.

It is not Iran's job to respond to Israeli strikes on Syria. The Syrian government wanted to retaliate immediately to Tuesday's strike but was held back by Russian concerns. Russia saw these provocations as an Israeli trap. Yesterday Netanyahoo visited Moscow. The Russian president warned him to stop the provocations. Netanyahoo did not listen.

Last night Israel again attacked Syrian military positions in al-Quneitra in south-west Syria. This time the Syrian missile forces responded with a barrage of more than 20 missiles against Israeli positions in the occupied Golan Heights. Israel escalated further with 70 strikes against Syrian positions.

The Syrian opposition outlet SOHR confirms this chain of events:

The Israeli shelling came just before the dawn of Sunday after the fall of missiles after midnight, launched from al-Quneitra area and southwest Rif Dimashq adjacent to the occupied territories of Golan, following the Israeli shelling which took place last night and targeted locations near al-Ba’ath city in the central countryside of Quneitra.

Pictures and video from Damascus show that the Syrian air defense intercepted many of the Israeli missiles.


bigger

Israel now claims that it eliminated the "Iranian threat" in Syria:

Israel's Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman said that Israel's forces struck "nearly all the Iranian infrastructure in Syria" and said that no objects were hit on the territories of Israel.

The claim of success is a signal that it does not want to go any further:

"I hope we've finished this episode and everyone understood," Lieberman added, stressing that Israel doesn't want an escalation, but "won't let anyone attack us or build an infrastructure to attack us in the future."

The propagandist praise of an Israeli success reminds one of previous similar claims.

On the second day of the 2006 war on Lebanon Israel loudly boosted that it had destroyed "all long-range Hizbullah missiles" in a 34 minutes long air campaign. But more than 100 missiles per day continued to hit Israel, including targets in Tel Aviv far away from the Lebanese border. Thirty one days later Israel sued for peace. Its invasion of Lebanon had been defeated. Its "successful" strike against Hizbullah's long range missiles had hit mostly empty positions.

The Israeli targeting in Syria is not much better than its targeting in Lebanon twelve years ago.

Syria will now continue to respond to Israeli attacks. This time it limited its strikes to military positions in the occupied Golan heights. The next strikes will go further. This time Israel sent its population in the occupied Golan heights into bunkers. The next time half of Israel may have to go underground. How long could Israel sustain that?

Iran will also retaliate for attacks on its forces in Syria. But it does not need to do so from Syria. There are also other ways and means than sending missiles.

That Syria, after much suffering, now retaliated for the Israeli strikes draws a new line in the sand. If Israel wants a wider war it will get one. The destruction in the involved countries in the Middle East, including Israel, might thrown them back 100 years. Syria, Lebanon, and Iran could live with that.  A 100 years ago Israel did not exist.

Posted by b on May 10, 2018 at 11:41 UTC | Permalink

Comments
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I agree with the conclusions you've drawn from Avi Lieberman's official announcements, b. But I also hope that the "Israelis" do not.
On the other hand, "Israel" has just discovered that bravado, bullshit and self-deception are miserable substitutes for clear thinking.
I'm expecting Trump to be almost as deaf to Bibi's whingeing as Putin.

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | May 10 2018 19:39 utc | 101

karlof1

Garrie seems to have a pretty good analysis of Israel/Russia relations though as can be seen from the recent exchange, Russia will give Syria what it needs to defend itself.

As for Nutty being an honoured guest at the victory parade, from video of the actual military parade and other pick, Nutty's official seating was second to Putin's left wth a WWII veteran between Putin and Nutty. By contrast, When Xi and his wife attended, the were seated at Putin's right hand.
From what I could see of it, nutty was shown nothing more than due respect as the leader of a foreign country.

Posted by: Peter AU 1 | May 10 2018 19:40 utc | 102

@96 more...

I went and read it a third time. I should add that I can agree with much of what Garrie is writing in this piece, but honestly I think he's overdoing it a little. I truly cannot see any message sent by Russia to anyone from this visit by Netanyahu. The videos and body language seem very clear that Putin was in a different world. Everything that Garrie predicates on his mis-reading of this visit is faulty, I suggest.

Everything else, okay - only not quite so extreme to one side. I'm not convinced Russia has any regard whatsoever for the regime of Israel or its occupation of Palestine. All that matters are its Russian people living there. And Russia has millions more Russians stranded outside its borders following the dissolution of the Soviet Union. These, too, remain a great concern for Putin. Israel is not unique in this regard.

I guess I'm saying that if you want to understand the heavily nuanced relationship between Russia and Israel, there are better sources, some of which we've linked here in recent threads. But to use Garrie's article to do it is a perilous effort, I suggest - because it only takes importance from the visit to Moscow (which is how it styles itself), and Garrie reads more into that than I can see is evidenced anywhere.

Posted by: Grieved | May 10 2018 19:41 utc | 103

@86
"The US strategically self sufficient in oil" ? Only if price is no concern what-so-ever.
https://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/85555/us-shale-oil-miracle-disappears

Posted by: Ike | May 10 2018 19:42 utc | 104

Will israel start bombing Lebanon next in a new aggression? Why not, nobody is stopping nor condemning them..

Lieberman Warns of 'New Reality,' Says Lebanon Under Hezbollah's Control
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201805101064339027-lieberman-lebanon-hezbollah-control/

Posted by: Anon | May 10 2018 19:42 utc | 105

Having seen Grad barrages fired by SAA and allies at enemy positions on many occasions during the civil war, e.g. in Qusayr when some 200-300 missiles were fired within 1,5 minutes, I am not sure what the purpose of last nights very limited attack was.
The war head of Grad missiles is not much and their accuracy little but firing 200 of these quite cheap projectiles on 1-2 locations would overwhelm the expensive Iron Dome system with a high likelihood that 30-50% of the missiles go unintercepted.

This said, I doubt Iran was behind yesterdays attack. After 6 years of not responding to Israeli attacks they don´t send in their "elite" Qods force to fire few Grads.

Besides, it is worth a quesion (to be answered by pro Israeli western media) why Israel "retaliates" against air defense batteries. The Grads were certainly not fired by the Panstir system.

Posted by: KerKaraje | May 10 2018 19:48 utc | 106

@ karlof1
I don't believe I've read the Garrie article and I don't know how to access it.
On Russia/Israel I tend toward The Saker, along with my belief (previously stated) that Iran is going too far and is paying for it.

Posted by: Don Bacon | May 10 2018 19:51 utc | 107

Russia still holding out on those S-300 systems. Guess they're still hoping the US will finally accept them with open arms. Assad doesn't have a lot of choices here. The Russkies tried the bellicose talk before the US missile launch but failed to follow through. All bark and no bite. Now the door is open for just about anyone to attack Syria with impunity.

Running never works with a bully. You always have to face them. 9 times out of ten they will not fight and when they do you have to make them suffer and know you will always stand and fight. They then will leave you alone. Walker,,, Texas Ranger. (lol) Still holds true though.

Posted by: ken | May 10 2018 19:55 utc | 108

Ike 105

Best update yourself Ike. You link to a 2014 article that's working on 2014 prices and technology.

Posted by: Peter AU 1 | May 10 2018 19:59 utc | 109

Don Bacon

Thats a werid way to view the world, you dont argue from facts on the ground then, you argue from the point of view of the Saker-blogger point of view, that pathetically trying to cover for Russia in every other way in its behavior towards Israel and Syria.
Even that makes no sense, in what way do Russia benefit from the the possible regime change in Syria? Even if that doesnt happen you say, the bombings only benefit the terrorists inside Syria - the one Russia have tried to bomb. For years. Now with israeli strikes, they embolden those groups and will drag out the war even more, that doesnt benefit Syria and it doesnt benefit Russia. Syria was about to win the war, now when they are almost in goal, they are attacked and Russia do not care to stop it.

Your last sentence about Iran is going too far and have to pay is pure bonkers.
First of all Israel is occupying Golan. Illegally
It bombs Syria. Illegally
When Syria respond, it is the fault of Syria and Iran "going too far" you say?! Syria is just going to accept being bombed all these years?
Syria have all the right to have any weapons on their territory. I dont understand why you nor Israel understand this simple legal fact?

Under intentional law Syria and allies have all right they need to respond to Israeli attacks.
Saying the victim is "going too far" is going to prolong this war and embolden the aggressor in Israel.

Posted by: Anon | May 10 2018 20:05 utc | 110

How soon until

US withdrawal from JCPOA + Israeli interests in Syria + convenient Iranian Bad Guy + recent Lebanese elections =

Air strikes conducted by Israel against Hezbollah in Lebanon?

Lieberman is already prepping us by noting that Hezbollah's success in the recent elections means that Lebanese government and military is directly controlled by and so an extension of Iran.

Posted by: WJ | May 10 2018 20:10 utc | 111

@ A P 65 (GDP)

“. . even if we act to erase material poverty, there is another greater task, it is to confront the poverty of satisfaction – purpose and dignity – that afflicts us all.  Too much and for too long, we seemed to have surrendered personal excellence and community values in the mere accumulation of material things.

Our Gross National Product, now, is over $800 billion dollars a year, but that Gross National Product – if we judge the United States of America by that – that Gross National Product counts air pollution and cigarette advertising, and ambulances to clear our highways of carnage.  It counts special locks for our doors and the jails for the people who break them.  It counts the destruction of the redwood and the loss of our natural wonder in chaotic sprawl.  It counts napalm and counts nuclear warheads and armored cars for the police to fight the riots in our cities.  It counts Whitman’s rifle and Speck’s knife, and the television programs which glorify violence in order to sell toys to our children.

Yet the gross national product does not allow for the health of our children, the quality of their education or the joy of their play.  It does not include the beauty of our poetry or the strength of our marriages, the intelligence of our public debate or the integrity of our public officials.  It measures neither our wit nor our courage, neither our wisdom nor our learning, neither our compassion nor our devotion to our country, it measures everything in short, except that which makes life worthwhile.  And it can tell us everything about America except why we are proud that we are Americans.”
Robert F Kennedy, March 18, 1968

Posted by: AntiSpin | May 10 2018 20:10 utc | 112

@b 98
Iranian made ballistic missiles, not Iranian manned missiles or bases. Let's face it, something is really worrying Israel and Putin is no fool he knows if he doesn't let them take out these weapons, next would be an all out war.
So you really think Netanyahou would have crashed the victory day ceremonies, got a NO from Putin then went ahead and took out these sites while Putin just sat on his butt.
This was a staged game with specific objectives to avoid an all out war.

Posted by: Brad allen | May 10 2018 20:10 utc | 113

Grieved 104

My take is that Russia has the same respect for Israel's UN recognized borders as it has for any other nation. Putin's Russia only recognizes post WWII UN recognized borders. As someone said in a comment in one of the recent threads, the clock cannot be turned back to a time when Israel did not exist. Russia will continue with mediation.
Israel has not joined the anti Russia sanctions, nor officially at least, indulged in anti Russia rhetoric.
This might be reflected in the split in the US between the purely zoinist Iran haters who prefer good terms with Russia, and the Russia haters who would like to attack Russia.

Posted by: Peter AU 1 | May 10 2018 20:12 utc | 114

Russia gets bashed both from the right and from the left, which means that it must be doing something right for a country with less than first magnitude power. And in fact Russia is doing a lot of things correctly with good results, judging from the scare that Russia has put on the U.S., for one example.

Posted by: Don Bacon | May 10 2018 20:16 utc | 115

@60 Robert Snefjella.. thanks for your thoughtful and insightful post..

@62 b.. thanks for the update...

@89 observer.. i am not completely convinced about what is going on in that video.. southfront sure is an incestuous place in the comment section.. i guess that is why i never go there!

@karlof1.. reading the adam garrie article.. here is a quote that i personally don't agree with from the article. "the message is clear that Netanyahu is considered deeply honourable by the Russian government'.. no i doubt that very much in fact!!! it's not a bad article, but it is seen thru a particular lens that i don't fully share..

@113 antispin.. good quote on the ongoing hoopla about gdp.. thanks..

laguerre.. this whole thing israel has done the past 2 days looks like more of an exercise in propaganda then anything else.. someone else might have said this upsteam as well, so sorry if i am repeating it here.. if the msm monkeys want to mimic the offical line from israel, so be it.. that is what the msm does today... the guardian.. i wouldn't be caught dead reading it.. i prefer news without arsenic sprinkled throughout! thanks for your comments..

Posted by: james | May 10 2018 20:27 utc | 116

i see posters at sst's site are swallowing this israeli propaganda wholehog.. iran shot 20 missiles into israel bullshite.. wow.. the commenters over there are more stupid then i thought...

Posted by: james | May 10 2018 20:33 utc | 117

Thanks for the several replies to the Garrie and CP articles. As regards Garrie, I think he has the general dynamic of the Zionist-Russia relationship and how that fits with Russia's relations with the Arab/Islamic World. There must be some friction given Zionist lies, propaganda and provocations versus Russia's fundamental interests, however. I suppose since the Zionist's actions and treatment of Palestinians amounts to State Terrorism, most of us would expect Russia to denounce such a policy and seek to end it since it's the primary fuel underneath actual Jihadist motivation from Islamic World that truly threatens Russia; thus the reason behind people calling Putin a hypocrite and untrustworthy (add in S-300 non-delivery for extra vitriol).

DB asks an excellent question regarding the CP article that I'd need more time to dig into for an answer. Perhaps I'll email the author. But I'll note the Outlaw US Empire's been violating the UN Charter since its Senate ratification.

Here's a pic of the Syrian officer killed by the missile that destroyed the Pantsir-1 caught on this video. Here's the best summary I've read about last night. I've read several Twitter reports of Zionist planes being shot down--just words, no pics. Will the Zionists attack again tonight? I doubt it. If Iranian assets were actually in Syria in the manner alleged, would Zionists attack? Yes, to prove their point, but will they take the risk?

Posted by: karlof1 | May 10 2018 20:35 utc | 118

@114
if he doesn't let them take out these weapons, next would be an all out war.

The last thing Israel probably wants is an all out war with Iran. I am assuming their society has not yet declined from rational to irrational nihilism. I could be wrong. But I think not yet. Israel would be very happy if it could get the US to bomb Iranian "interests" in Syria or Lebanon. And at least some in US gvt would be very happy if Iranian "aggression" were to give the US plausible justification for bombing these interests, especially if they are claimed to be located in Syria. This would all have to be negotiated with the Russians and would probably amount to little. The US could also be moved to bomb Iranian interests in Lebanon. This Israel would live, but it is also very unlikely to happen. Too many vulnerable US interests in area. Israel would also like it if US provided cover for Israel itself to strike targets in Lebanon. Depending upon what these strikes involve and how far Putin is able to stretch the patience of Iran and Syria they may or may not happen.

At the end of the day, Russia has to sign off on anything that goes down over Syrian airspace and everybody gets this. What we see are FUKUS and Israel negotiating for symbolic or delimited strikes for largely domestic political purposes, and Russia is going to have to listen somewhat not bc of military strength but bc of Putin's own domestic politics re Russian Zionist Jews, Russian Oligarchs, etc.

Posted by: WJ | May 10 2018 20:39 utc | 119

this article by Thierry Messyan http://www.voltairenet.org/article201027.html offers some plausible explanations for yesterday's events.
The article he posted today, further elaborates his thesis that there was a diving up of military powers between Iran and US and that the secret part of the bilateral agreement of the 'Iran deal' possibly contained an agreement between Iranian and US troops to stay out of each other's way in the middle east. This ended with Trump's withdrawal from the "Iran deal", and Iran 's response was to strike at Israeli bases, containing the Pentagon's arsenal, in the Golan Heights. Israel riposted in a disproportionate manner firing over 70 missiles on Iranian military assets in Syria, and also trying to take down the Syrian air defenses. http://www.voltairenet.org/article201105.html
Previous to this there were plans afoot to establish a buffer zone to 'protect Israel' around Dara'a. Syrian jouranlist Mudar Barakat stated a few weeks ago that defeat of these proxies in south syria, would lead to fall of the Israeli occupation in the Golan.. https://www.facebook.com/mudar.barakat/posts/1861377303933069

Posted by: majobrs | May 10 2018 20:46 utc | 120

@xLemming 91

Well maybe keep the "consent" half of your question. "Peace through conquest" is reminiscent of 'humanitarian intervention' as in destroying Libya, or 'Responsibility to Protect' to make war on Serbia and Syria, and destroying everything that moved in Vietnamese villages in order to save them from the Vietnamese, while simultaneously 'promoting' 'democracy', 'human rights', 'American values' and the UN Charter.

@Antispin 113 Thanks for RFK eloquence. Big shortage of that.

Posted by: Robert Snefjella | May 10 2018 20:47 utc | 121

@Anon (84) Putin does care what happens in Syria, and he is doing his best not to allow the Israeli provocations to escalate into a full-fledged war. Hence, his very measured non-response. Upping the ante with more weapons systems at this time carries the risk of triggering a like response from the salivating warmongers in the Trump administration. Just play it cool, boy, real cool. ("West Side Story" reference.) ;>)

Posted by: Rob | May 10 2018 20:50 utc | 122

@99
DB conveniently forgot to mention how many times Israel struck Iranian bases in Syria resulting in casualties. Any other country would have hit back repeatedly. Iran has every right to prepare for the worst, as it's surrounded by hostility, enemies and U.S. bases, and just as the U.S. has bases in other countries to protect its allies, Iran has every right to set up defenses and defend Syria from continuous Israeli attacks.

DB made himself pretty transparent with that reply.

Posted by: Circe | May 10 2018 20:53 utc | 123

The just "leaked" think-tank NSC proposal to change US policy toward seeking regime change in Iran apparently proposes (via zeroHedge)

"deemphasizing U.S military intervention, instead focusing on a series of moves to embolden an Iranian population that has increasingly grown angry at the ruling regime for its heavy investments in military adventurism across the region."

I wish somebody would do this for us Americans lol.

Even Bolton's leaked regime change document basically admits the US military couldn't go to war with Iran even if it wanted to. Assuming this document is legit, it more or less officially announces the Emperor's nakedness in case there was any doubt. A regime change plan for IRAN!! that deemphasizes US military intervention. Lol.

Posted by: WJ | May 10 2018 20:54 utc | 124

Rob

Thats no strategy "play cool", we see what "play cool" means, bombing Assads forces and probably soon himself,
russian weapons systems could have stopped these attacks just like that, its humilitating and neocon hawks all over the world is of course seeing just this. THat Russia wont do anything.

Posted by: Anon | May 10 2018 20:58 utc | 125

Don Bacon @108--

Adam Garrie article.

I disagreed with Saker's take on Medvedev's return as PM, but find myself in agreement with him more often than not. What do you think of this from comment 60 earlier in this thread:

"Russia has also risen into effective national sovereignty from near death in the face of the explicit intention of the financial PTB to set up a system of totalitarian goverance (James Paul Warburg, 1950, to US Senate: "We shall have world government, whether or not we like it. The only question is if world government will be achieved through conquest or consent." David Rockefeller, 1991: "The world is prepared to march towards a world government ... [in which] supranational sovereignty [is held by] an intellectual elite and world bankers ....")"

Posted by: karlof1 | May 10 2018 21:00 utc | 126

Russia is simply playing the long game as it has done so successfully. I imagine Netanyahu attended the May 8 parade for the very reason that it might get people doubting Putin - if he and Putin were really in cahoots, they wouldn't have made it public in that way.

Posted by: Tom | May 10 2018 21:08 utc | 127

@103

Omg. Of course Putin would seat a WWII vet between him and Nutyahoo. But that is no justification for Yahoo's presence at that event. Even Zionist sympathizers, Bill Clinton and Obama, bad mouthed Yahu behind his back and couldn't stand socializing with him. He's a blowhard idiot besides being a bloodthirsty war monger, and Putin, despite the natural aversion for Yahu he shares with others, still invites that turd to a prestigious event. It's sickening and just the optics are an unmitigated BETRAYAL.

Posted by: Circe | May 10 2018 21:09 utc | 128

Canthama at SyrPers commnents upon then provides the text of the latest entry on SAA'a Facebook page:

"This a small post from the SAA FB page. It reflects well the sentiment of many Syrians today after last night Israhelli aggression. There is a awesome sense of pride of a good job done. let their words sink for a minute{:}

"Do you realize what it means for a country that had been at war for 8 years to do what Syria did last night?!

"What it means for an Army to be fighting a war for 8 years and still launch missiles at several enemy military locations then foil over a 100 stand-off missile fired at his?!

"Do you realize what it means when the single most sophisticated air force in the region and one of the most sophisticated air forces in the world does not dare to approach anywhere near the Syrian Airspace and fire all their attacks from at least 100+km distance?!

"The Zionists had their calculations in 2006 and everyone saw how it turned out for them, they had their calculations today and they are attempting to comprehend what does Syria hide that after 8 years of internal war, Syrian Military still fire over 40 missiles at 4 of Zionist military establishments in the occupied-Golan Heights and foil all of the attempts of the Zionists to carry out a successful strike against Syria.”"

It's okay to have pride but cockiness ought to be left for Trump.

Posted by: karlof1 | May 10 2018 21:16 utc | 129

some folks say the most stupid things here at moa.. best to skip over them..

Posted by: james | May 10 2018 21:35 utc | 130

Can someone provide a link to the Syrian MP's interview on BBC Hardtalk? I have the youtube link bookmarked but it's been taken down. Thanks

Posted by: George Lane | May 10 2018 21:37 utc | 131

Syria is the first line of defense for Iran since Lebanon has a shared governance. If Nutyahu decides to attack Iran, and it has attacked every neighbor with impunity in the past, then Iran can start to hobble the Zionist offensive in proximity from bases in Syria. Why does Russia want to keep bases in Syria? Russia is using the same strategy; it needs a port in proximity of U.S. bases if at some point in future the U.S. decides to go after Russia. For Iran, it's not a question of "if" but "when" it will be attacked.

So don't give me the bull about Zionist red lines and Iran offensives and how justified Putin thinks Israel is attacking Iranian positions. Zionists are itching for war; they want to annihilate Iran if given half a chance and Iran must and should prepare for what is inevitable. Iran has a wealth of oil and gas; also making it a perennial target. Not to plan for the inevitable would be stupid.

It's untimely and looks terrible for Putin to parade around with Yahu that way when Iran is under such threat. Putin is acting like Iran doesn't have the same right Russia has to prepare its defenses. He's acting like only Russia has a license to keep bases in Syria. If anyone should understand Iran's need to build up its defenses it's Putin, since Russia is also on the present U.S. axis of evil. If Iran were attacked, would Russia come to its defense? I'm not so sure. Actually, NO! Russia would stay out of it except for Putin offering lip service at the U.N. in its defense. Only China has a stake in Iran's oil and gas and Iran can't even count on China's help.

Posted by: Circe | May 10 2018 21:46 utc | 132

Trump's enemies of choice since at least the start of the election campaign have been Iran and China. The Trump admin have brought in the partitioning of Syria, US basically annexing north east Syria which they will hold with military force. The two Trump admin strikes against Syria gov have been choreographed show pieces to take the wind out of the sails of the anti Russia crowd who are still fixated on taking down Syria completely.

Trump's focus is on Iran and China. China relies on the middle east for good portion of its oil supplies. Iran is also an important point in its belt and road strategy.
The main argument against US starting a hot war with Iran is that it would crash the world economy. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)
The US is falling behind and will continue falling further behind. Why would Trump Bolton Pompeo resist starting a war in the middle east because it would crash world economies?

The other argument against US war on Iran is from those that can only envisage hot war as Iraq shock and awe followed by invasion and occupation.
Plenty of ways to run a war hot enough to make life hard for Iran, disrupt China's oil supply and Disrupt China and EU economy other than Iraq style shock and awe.

Posted by: Peter AU 1 | May 10 2018 21:55 utc | 133

Judging by what the NeoCon outlet Washington freebeacon put out today the US policy shift will be one less reliant on military means and more on covert plans "regime change" in Iran (akin to the failed protests of a few months ago):

The Trump administration is examining a new plan to help Iranians fighting the hardline regime in Iran following America's exit from the landmark nuclear deal and reimposition of harsh economic sanctions that could topple a regime already beset by protests and a crashing economy, according to a copy of the plan obtained by the Washington Free Beacon.

The three-page white paper being circulated among National Security Council officials in the White House offers a strategy by which the Trump administration can actively work to assist an already aggravated Iranian public topple the hardline ruling regime through a democratization strategy that focuses on driving a deeper wedge between the Iranian people and the ruling regime.

The plan, authored by the Security Studies Group, or SSG, a national security think-tank that has close ties to senior White House national security officials, including National Security Adviser John Bolton, seeks to reshape longstanding American foreign policy toward Iran by emphasizing an explicit policy of regime change, something the Obama administration opposed when popular protests gripped Iran in 2009.
...
It deemphasizes U.S military intervention, instead focusing on a series of moves to embolden an Iranian population that has increasingly grown angry at the ruling regime for its heavy investments in military adventurism across the region.

http://freebeacon.com/national-security/white-house-examining-plan-spark-regime-change-iran/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Posted by: jsb | May 10 2018 22:09 utc | 134

Fascinating article about the Winds of Change occurring within German media over the Syria narrative which includes an @hour long show:

"a political talk on German TV where a guest is allowed to give a full summary on the genesis of the Syrian conflict, claim that all chemical attacks have been false flags and make his argument about it, that Russia has a clear strategy and will determine the endgame, and that the US has lost the quagmire in Syria and Iraq."

Wonder if b saw it? I remember what was said about losing Cronkite's support for Vietnam and the importance it was given. Could such a moment be occurring in Germany? How much impact did that development have on Merkel's recent comment cited by myself and others on this thread?

Posted by: karlof1 | May 10 2018 22:11 utc | 135

The Syrian air defence is generally starting to look good, but looking at the Israeli video of the drone taking out the Pantsir, there is still some work to be done with the personal.
The Pantsir is parked and not operating. just before the drone hits, a person can be seen running from a small group to the control cabin of the Pantsir to start it up, but far too late.

Posted by: Peter AU 1 | May 10 2018 22:14 utc | 136

Last time I looked at the map, IRAN was surrounded by little flags and neocon's nasty 'uni-polar' promise. With stars and stripes icing the cake of conquest on three sides.
And the blue criss-cross of an apartheid asylum, the other.
Within the known knowns; YINON expansionist agenda, Nakbar, Mossadeq and IAEA to guide the exceptionalist mission creep, war is still not inevitable, if courage and wisdom and peace prevail. But the madness of TRUMP and the 911 conspiratorial guilt of Netenyahu/Milekowski make it more likely. The neoconazion alliance have much to hide in their post911 smashing of the middle East. Especially now as hung in the other sack beneath the USAMO missile, as ally, is the Saudi horror.
Strange how fate works. To clarify - identify - the real AOE, hung under the dog of war.

Posted by: rm | May 10 2018 22:18 utc | 137

New Elijah J. Magnier article:

IRAN BREAKS THE RULES OF ENGAGEMENT: ISRAEL TAKES ITS REVENGE, AND SYRIA AND IRAN IMPOSE THE GOLAN EQUATION

Israel hits Syrian and Iranian objectives and weapons warehouses again (evacuated weeks before) for the fourth time in a month. 28 Israeli jets participated in the biggest attack since 1974. Tel Aviv informed the Russian leadership of its intentions without succeeding in stopping the Syrian leadership from responding. Actually, what is new is the location where Damascus decided to hit back: the occupied Golan Heights (20 rockets were fired at Israeli military positions).

Syria, in coordination with its Iranian allies (without taking into consideration Russian wishes) took a very audacious decision to fire back against Israeli targets in the Golan. This indicates that Damascus and its allies are ready to widen the battle, in response to continual Israeli provocations.

https://ejmagnier.com/2018/05/10/iran-breaks-the-rules-of-engagement-israel-takes-its-revenge-and-syria-and-iran-impose-the-golan-equation/

Posted by: jsb | May 10 2018 22:21 utc | 138

Syria, in coordination with its Iranian allies (without taking into consideration Russian wishes)

Lemme see now: if Russia were attacked by the U.S. and justifiably responded in kind; would Russia seek permission of anyone's wishes beforehand, especially, if that Party who's wishes it should have considered wouldn't lift a finger to help retaliate against the U.S. attack???

Posted by: Circe | May 10 2018 22:32 utc | 139

jsb @ 139. Good article as usual from ej magnier. Looks like Iran and Syria are ready to take on the Palestinian problem and the Golan Heights problem. I think Russia is sympathetic.

Posted by: financial matters | May 10 2018 22:33 utc | 140

@137 peter.. thanks for explaining that the panzir wasn't on.. why was that? how much energy do they take up being on, i wonder?

@139 jsb.. thanks for the link to magnier...

Posted by: james | May 10 2018 22:42 utc | 141

I have learned more about history/politics from Polk
than anyone. He is the wise man.
Here is his latest:
The Implications of Voiding the Iran Nuclear Deal
by William R. Polk
https://historynewsnetwork.org/article/168987

Posted by: mauisurfer | May 10 2018 22:48 utc | 142

@139

Syria, in coordination with its Iranian allies (without taking into consideration Russian wishes) took a very audacious decision to fire back against Israeli targets in the Golan.

Can you please tell me why Russia's wishes should be considered when Russia fails to put the breaks on Israel's attacks? Last I checked Syria is still a sovereign country with a right to defend itself without anyone's consideration in mind.

Posted by: Circe | May 10 2018 22:53 utc | 143

jsb @139--

Magnier completely ignores that aggressive tank, artillery rocket and machine gun fire from Occupied Golan began the entire affair in support of IDF's terrorist proxy's assault on SAA positions. That's the entire reason why the return fire targeted Occupied Golan. The associated attack by IAF was met by SAAaD forces, but the IAF attack was not in support of the IDF's terrorists. Reporting Zionist shelters opening as far away as Haifa. As to the Zionist comments on that thread, if the report's as false as alleged then why the Zionist media blackout over the region?

Posted by: karlof1 | May 10 2018 22:53 utc | 144

@ mauisurfer 142
If Polk mentioned disarmament, I missed it. Anyhow.....

The US, #1 in world military power, nevertheless relies on three different delivery means to maintain its "nuclear deterrence" against would-be attackers. But the nation likely to be attacked BY the US are not allowed any such nuclear deterrence. These are sovereign states with the same impulses toward national security, but they don't get the deterrence that the the big guys enjoy.

But the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) that mandates this condition also has another requirement that the big guys have conveniently overlooked.
Article VI
Each of the Parties to the Treaty undertakes to pursue negotiations in good faith on effective measures relating to cessation of the nuclear arms race at an early date and to nuclear disarmament, and on a treaty on general and complete disarmament under strict and effective international control.

Posted by: Don Bacon | May 10 2018 23:04 utc | 145

@135

Regime change in Iran: authors Trump and Bolton, asylum buddies.

If Trump thinks it'll happen without war; he's f...ing delusional. There will be bloodshed monumental blowback.

Posted by: Circe | May 10 2018 23:04 utc | 146

@Anon Putin is looking at a much bigger picture than you, and he sees things that you do not. Time will tell if he is playing a smart hand.

Posted by: Rob | May 10 2018 23:07 utc | 147

Who the hell does Trump think he is taking on Iran and thinking he'll reinvent the wheel? He's nothing but a silver-spooned man baby who conned his way into the White House by exploiting the ignorance of every hick town in the U.S.A.

Posted by: Circe | May 10 2018 23:08 utc | 148

While walking in the Immortal Regiment parade:

Israeli PM - Mr Putin, the Syrians have allowed the Iranians to establish bases right on our borders. This cannot stand!

Mr Putin - Welcome to the club. We have all of Europe and NATO on our borders.

Posted by: Bart Hansen | May 11 2018 1:00 utc | 149

Russia does not defend its allies. It does not even provide them with the means to defend themselves. Putin’s dream is to join his BFF Trump at the western table. He is even stacking the Duma with western friendly liberals who are beholden of the WB/IMF/WTO. The Russians have no ideology in play. They are as capitalist as the west. Hoping that Vlad and his gang of bullshiters “saves” the west from itself is simply crackers. Very dry crackers at that.

Posted by: Porridge & Lager | May 11 2018 1:10 utc | 150

1. https://israelpalestinenews.org/oil-for-israel-the-truth-about-the-iraq-war-15-years-later/

This is an important article by an eminent insider, on the psychopathic Israeli agenda for the Iraq war -- a 25% discount on oil traded for vast death and destruction by the bloody hands of the US thrall. Anyway, always get that discount!

2. I appreciate the awakening of the author of the article above, but I think he is blind to the importance of water in the Greater Israel plan, including the Litani but also both the Tigris and Euphrates, starting at the headwaters in what is now Turkey, all the way to the Persian Gulf -- the Jews want every drop. They also want the complete hydroelectric system that Iran has built in the Zagros mountains of Khuzestan. Since before Cheney the plan has been to carve Khuzestan out of Iran and send the oil/gas/electricity/water across the Iraqi desert to Israel. It has never changed.
3. The Jewish system is at its dark cold heart organized crime. Look at how Adelson is laundering cash on ships off the China Coast for example, or how he inherited the Jewish gambling empire kicked out of Havana by Castro. Paul Singer the vulture capitalist is little better, and so on. All of the Bernie Madoffs. What is new is the pilfering of the internet backbone and corporate networks through Mossad Unit 8200 offshoots like Intel, and countless other similar tech frontrunning industrial espionage operations.
3.At the core this all operates on rehypothecation, which predates the Rothschilds but forms the essential operating principle of the City of London in particular, and all of the offshore money laundering centers. Rehypothecation is a fake collateral scam and can easily implode into panic with honest price discovery, or even just deception-free pricing of risk, which is quite easy. The Jewish system is in its entirety fraudulent and will simply blow away overnight as it becomes visible that the industrial espionage has failed to generate any real collateral. With that scam gone the military Keynsianism evaporates like a Venezuelan bond. Russia is producing real collateral and that is how they have come under such attack.
4. As long as I am on a rant: "Roth" is not "rot" -- the color red in German. Roth is a town and a river in Germany where Jews migrated to safety during the Holy Roman Empire. Rothschild is a title, not a name, meaning "protector of the Jewish refuge". The Rothschilds are all still just Bauers (not that there's anything wrong with it).

Posted by: mireille | May 11 2018 1:26 utc | 151

karlof1, what's the source for your reports giving the blow-by-blows of what happened, those mentioned in 58 and 71?

It makes for a fascinating story. Sounds almost like there's the reason why Russia has not used their advanced technology nor why Iran needs to act: the point being Syria takes care of itself quite well and responds appropriately. They are only watching to make sure the fight is fair.

But if the people who did 9/11 are still out there murdering through the same logic of sacrificial justice justifying their illegal wars, they will probably still be out there once they sacrifice Israel, too. Isn't that what people are saying? That Israel might lose very horribly if they act irrational (and are acting such)? What better opportunity to try the same old trick one more time, as who benefits still from 9/11?

Posted by: Charles R | May 11 2018 1:39 utc | 152

SyrPers Canthama provides the latest entry from SAA's Facebook page, confirming the initial ground assault:

Canthama: "The SAA FB posted this few hours ago, always good to hear from these guys, they have the best connections within the Syrian forces, this is their take on from the events last night."

SAA: "A comprehensive report regarding what happened last night and this morning.

"– Late yesterday evening Zionist military conducted number of artillery strikes against a Syrian Army post in Khan Arnabea which led to SAA returning fire by firing number of mortars against the source of Zionist fire.

"– The enemy did not stop its attack and launched number of recon drones to sweep the borders over the airspace of the occupied-Golan Heights without entering Syrian Airspace.

"– Enemy brought a Merkava Tank which fired 6 random shots into al-Baa`th city in al-Quneitra which led to SAA’s Tank Hunters dealing with the situation according to the rules of engagement.

"– Enemy fired a long-range Stand-Off missile into Damascus International Airport which was intercepted and destroyed by SyAAD ~30km Southeastern Damascus.

"– The Syrian 7th Division was given an order to strike 4 Zionist military establishments inside the occupied-Golan Heights; at 00:00 a barrage of 40 rockets were fired at the Zionist military establishments.

"– Zionist airforce quickly escalated the situation by launching several long-range Stand-Off missiles at number of Syrian Targets in and around Damascus, and three targets in Homs.

"– SyAAD foiled the first three waves of attacks by the Zionists which forced the Zionists to resort to surface-to-surface missiles.

"– After the Zionist’s 3rd wave of missiles, the Syrian 7th Division was given another order to launch a barrage of 20 missiles at Zionist Military establishments in the occupied-Golan Heights.

"– The number of Zionist war jets participated in the attack was ~30 jets, all of which fired their missiles from outside the Syrian and even Lebanese airspace and did not dare to enter either.

"– Zionist launched a 4th wave of missiles combined with decoy, surface to surface and air launched long-range missiles; and this was the wave that 4 of its missiles reached their targets and hit an SyAAD detection radar, an SyAAD short-range defense battery (seen in enemy footage) and two ammunition depots.

"– No Long-Range SAM were fired at the Zionist jets although they were in range multiple times, and that is up to the Syrian Command’s rules of engagement to determine (Despite one’s feelings this is not a game, this is real war)

"– To our knowledge, the majority of the Syrian missiles fired at the Zionist’s locations reached their targets.

"– Syrian casualties were three martyrs.

"With all do respect to all Syrian allies, the entire situation was dealt with by the Syrian Arab Army and under Syrian command’s orders.

"We shared our losses, but we dare the Zionists to share theirs especially that all the targets the Syrian missiles hit were military targets in designated military areas; and we dare the Zionists to share proof of their successful interception of Syrian Missiles."

As revealed, the Rules of Engagement have indeed changed. An asymmetric response to Trump, perhaps?

Posted by: karlof1 | May 11 2018 1:51 utc | 153

>>> Observer | May 10, 2018 2:56:06 PM | 89

Russia the paper tiger?

Nah, Israel the lying, fabricating scumbags

Watch as Israel takes out Pantsir S-1 air defence system in Syria

Nah, looks like a badly-edited fabricated piece of bullshit so that imbeciles like you can make dumb comments.

Posted by: Ghost Ship | May 11 2018 2:01 utc | 154

Charles R @153--

As you see, we posted @ same time. The link above is one source. The Twitterverse is the other--about a dozen I read daily--for battle reports, troop movements, etc. Another source is Southfront. The scenario you pose with your questions is something to ponder as millions more will certainly be "sacrificed" due to inaction on all other problems pressuring humanity's survival.

Posted by: karlof1 | May 11 2018 2:04 utc | 155

What I've loved watching today on the TV is British Conservative politicians grovelling to an Islamist terrorist because that's the only way of whitewashing their involvement in the clusterfuck that Libya has become. Meanwhile Boris Johnson and some Labour fuckwits are happy to keep funding the black propaganda op known as the White Helmets.

I reckon that whoever came up with the idea of the White Helmets (maybe James Le Mesurier) based this effort on the work of Sefton Delmer with black propaganda in World War 2, but he obviously failed to grasp the importance of "killing off" the op.

Posted by: Ghost Ship | May 11 2018 2:10 utc | 156

A decade or two back, China was often accused by the MSM of having dealings with 'unsavory' 'regimes'.
Russia is now dealing with a number of unsavory regimes. Erdogan's Turkey, Israel.
The RTP 'progressives, the takfiri's in alt news comments are having a meltdown.
Get used to it. It is called the multi-polar world. Coming soon to a place near you.

Posted by: Peter AU 1 | May 11 2018 2:13 utc | 157

Assad interview by CNN 2005
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dErBbAt6Lqs

Posted by: Peter AU 1 | May 11 2018 2:22 utc | 158

karlof1 154 "– Zionist launched a 4th wave of missiles combined with decoy, surface to surface and air launched long-range missiles; and this was the wave that 4 of its missiles reached their targets and hit an SyAAD detection radar, an SyAAD short-range defense battery (seen in enemy footage) and two ammunition depots."

Looking at the video, it is a recording of the targeting video for a suicide drone. The video stops when it hits the Pantsir. I take it it was a low speed drone as one person in the group spotted it and ran to the control cabin of the Pantsir. Far too late to boot it up. The drone hit the control cabin just after the person entered it.
I did run onto a tweet that said it was hit while reloading, but in the video no reloading activity was taking place.

Posted by: Peter AU 1 | May 11 2018 2:33 utc | 159

reply to:
Even Bolton's leaked regime change document basically admits the US military couldn't go to war with Iran even if it wanted to. Assuming this document is legit, it more or less officially announces the Emperor's nakedness in case there was any doubt. A regime change plan for IRAN!! that deemphasizes US military intervention. Lol.
Posted by: WJ | May 10, 2018 4:54:55 PM | 125

I don't trust Bolton and I don't trust leaks. My first reaction to this doc is it was "leaked" to make Iran less wary, maybe even get them to warm up to Team Bolton and take a meeting.

Posted by: frances | May 11 2018 2:43 utc | 160

Ghostship @157
he obviously failed to grasp the importance of "killing off" the op.

Although there was reported to occur--perhaps two weeks or so ago--a suddenly rapid and highly efficient spate of assassinations of (I believe) ISIS military leaders, something like 10-25 of them being offed within a single 48hr time period. The reports I read speculated that this was perhaps the work of some new Syrian nationalist militia when it was obviously really a team of Mossad, or UK SAS, or US DEVGRU, or combination of them all, doing clean up work after the shitfuck that was East Ghouta. So there's evidence that some people at least still know how to kill off *some* kinds of ops. But I feel ya about the WH. Maybe once something gets linked to 77th brigade social psy warfare units there's just too much coverage and record of it to be killed off properly?

Posted by: WJ | May 11 2018 2:48 utc | 161

Frances @161

Point well taken. Hence the qualifier "if" in original comment. But I actually do believe that regardless of the legitimacy of the leak it is simply just obviously true that the US is not in any position to go to war with Iran and everybody knows this very well.

Posted by: WJ | May 11 2018 2:52 utc | 162

WJ 163

Why is the Trump admin not in a position to initiate some form of hot war with Iran?

Posted by: Peter AU 1 | May 11 2018 2:57 utc | 163

@144 karlof1

In my reading of the Magnier piece, it seems to take it as given that Israel started the whole thing. After all he includes that tweet mocking the fake news story that Israel was "retaliating". Magnier appears to be awed by, and very focused on, the change in the Rules of Engagement - he probably didn't take the time to lay out all the groundwork that he might have in a longer essay.

On balance, it seems a valuable piece, and ties in with your Canthama postings.

~~

ps..if I seem to be critiquing all your work today, it's purely an anomaly, not a change in the rules of engagement ;)

Posted by: Grieved | May 11 2018 2:59 utc | 164

Israelis probably used something like this in their attacks on Syria.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xrT2KtSzMd0

In one story I read it said some planes launched their weapons from "the border." Flying bomb, missile: not much difference. But they weren't going to risk their planes/pilots.

Posted by: Curtis | May 11 2018 3:06 utc | 165

karlof1, thank you for the link.

First they told me to call it a holocaust. Then they told me that was blasphemous and said to call it a Shoah. I am unsure what's the Truth.

Maybe this is why Taoism seems more appealing. There are different kinds of inaction when it comes to choosing how to avenge our dead.

Posted by: Charles R | May 11 2018 3:08 utc | 166

This is all well and good, but let's remember that in the "fog of war" even the people that are there may not know exactly what's going on, along with all the mistakes that are made, and inevitably those who aren't there are fed a lot of information that makes the home team look good. It's who's left standing eventually on the battlefield that counts, and that takes a while.

Posted by: Don Bacon | May 11 2018 3:11 utc | 167

I have watched the section of the CNN Assad interview a few times now. The CNN interviewer told Assad the US had already targeted him for regime change. This is back in 2005. Assad's thoughtful answers, back in 2005, remind me very much of the way Putin thinks. Well worth watching.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dErBbAt6Lqs

Posted by: Peter AU 1 | May 11 2018 3:14 utc | 168

Peter AU1 164
Why does Trump not directly attack? He's on board with Yahoo who like the Baron Harkonnen character in Dune telling his son/henchman he wants to squeeze them (workers on Arrakis, in our case the people of Iran). US going direct isn't the gameplan these days. Israel goes so far to punish and hurt ... for now.

Posted by: Curtis | May 11 2018 3:15 utc | 169

reply to:
...the US is not in any position to go to war with Iran and everybody knows this very well.
Posted by: WJ | May 10, 2018 10:52:45 PM | 163
Thank you, I think of Bolton as the stuff of nightmares:)
He, possibly Trump and definitely the generals, may know the US is not in a position to go to war with Iran but they may not care, after all they won't be the one dying will they?

Posted by: frances | May 11 2018 3:16 utc | 170

Curtis 170

Going direct was not the Obama admin game plan. Obama was the ultimate snake in the grass.
Regime change in Iran? after US reneges on a deal? After US imposes sanctions that make life harder for average Iranians. Perhaps team Trump are that far from reality.
I still tend to the view that Trump will start some form of hot war with Iran. Watching US navy boys crying when pulled up by Iran was hard on MAGA, like Tehran embassy and Beirut barracks bombing.
Too many stars aligning here. China, MAGA, Zion.
Will see how this turns out, but still of the opinion Trump's US will start some form of hot war with Iran.


Posted by: Peter AU 1 | May 11 2018 3:44 utc | 171

Peter AU @164
Why is the Trump admin not in a position to initiate some form of hot war with Iran?

1. Exposed US troop presence throughout ME = politically disastrous # of American causalities
2. Exposure of Tel Aviv and other Israeli cities to pre-prepared mass rocket and missile strike by Hezbollah and
coordinated Iranian units = politically disastrous # of Israeli casualties
3. Exposure of US financial /energy interests in Saudi Arabia = global economic mess
4. Iran capacity to close off import export routes from ME = global economic mess
5. US will not be supported by France or even UK, who did not even back up US attempt to enforce economic isolation of Iran.
6. US power projection harmed by war with Iran further isolating US from shared Atlanticist economic interests
solely for sake of serving Israel.


These are some reasons that come immediately to mind. I am assuming by "hot war" a real military undertaking w continued conflict aiming at total regime destabilization/collapse. Anything less than this--a symbolic strike for economic/political leveraging etc will probably be carried out by Israel under protection of US and not US itself. But anything less than full hot war will not defeat Iran--I can't believe I'm actually talking about this--and hot war would be catastrophic politically and economically and probably militarily if undertaken. So it won't be pursued.

Posted by: WJ | May 11 2018 3:53 utc | 172

WJ 173

Points 3,4,5,6 not applicable within Trump/Bolton US. Will think about the other points.

Posted by: Peter AU 1 | May 11 2018 4:04 utc | 173

This looks to be the person that ran to the controls of the Pantsir just before it was hit with the Israeli drone
https://twitter.com/WaelAlRussi/status/994658642392748032

Posted by: Peter AU 1 | May 11 2018 4:29 utc | 174

Peter AU1,

For my part I admit the current rhetoric coming from the WH are not encouraging. I did not know till just now that Bolton is operating in full coked out neocon death spasm mode, setting deadline goals for destroying civilizations--by 2019 it seems Bolton sees us opening anew Embassy in Tehran. It's still total fantasy, but there's an element of crazed antic conviction behind it that is more worrisome than mere cynical deception. It is almost as though Bolton were reliving a dream-fantasy funhouse version of the pre Iraq war run-up, what with the US rejection and refusal of international agreements, it's ludicrous almost comically hate -mongering accusations: Iran supports ISIS and AlQuaeda ( but the wrong kind apparently); Iran is aggressive, violent, baby-Israelite killing ravenous moloch. But her people deserve freedom. It's all the same old recycled shit and I get why you are projecting war. I only hope that you are wrong. I very much hope that.

Posted by: WJ | May 11 2018 4:43 utc | 175

Compare the likes of Ayham Habib who ran to the Pantsir just before the vIsraeli drone/missile hit, to the likes of Pat Lang a TTG's heros, the green beret mercenaries who operate with the jihadists in Syria and Yemen.
Just no comparison. Hero defending his country - and mercenaries fighting for excitement and money.

Posted by: Peter AU 1 | May 11 2018 4:44 utc | 176

WJ 176

I hope so too.

Posted by: Peter AU 1 | May 11 2018 4:50 utc | 177

Hot war with Iran wont happen, as much as it in the wet dreams of Bolton, Pompeo and Nutjobyahoo. Direct hit will be absolutely the most as they did against Syria, symbolic hit of a few empty buildings, which wont change anything (and Iran might even not bother with heavy retaliation).

No, what we can expect is a color revolution, arming of MEK, some jihadis and mercenaries, aka Libya 3.0. Kurds, Azeris and Baluchis will be encouraged in every way to secede. Weapons, funding, political cover.

However Iran is much stronger and more monolithic than Syria (plus getting ready for such scenario for many years), therefore damage to it will also be significantly lower, plus Axis of Terror are running out of cannon fodder. No change in the end, just Iranians even more united, and more determined to send wahhabis and their masters where sun doesnt shine.

Posted by: Harry | May 11 2018 5:09 utc | 178

@Yonatan | May 10, 2018 12:21:14 PM | 51

Putin basically totally ignored Boobie, and spent most of his time talking to Alexander Vucic, the President of Serbia.

I agree, this was what happened during the Victory Day parade.


Vucic was seated on Putin's right and Boobie on his left.

To clarify, from right to left the seating order was Putin, Vucic, Boobie. The vile Likudnik was never seated next to Putin.


Boobie was only there because he scammed his way in, by demanding an urgent meeting with Putin on May 9.

Probably.

Posted by: Cyril | May 11 2018 5:16 utc | 179

Bibi cunningly went to Moscow on Victory Day without official invitation, but as part of the Match Of The Immortal Regiment, which is open to ALL that had a relative who died fighting the Nazis. Bizzarely Bibi was not carrying a picture of his relative, but of an unrelated individual. Russia cannot restrain Syria from retaliation against constant Israeli attacks which also help jihadirats gain ground.
Israel was shaken by the response as stated in the article, when statements by Liebermann indicate the complete eradication of the Iranian threat, it always indicate that Israel wants a self-imposed ceasefire, to assess reaction from allies and to restock.
Russia will indeed do something after the FIFA World Cup, the whole world is watching this event and it is not time to 'rock the boat'. Look forward to the S300 being supplied or handed over to the Syrians soon [hint that it has already been delivered per smoke-screened delivery at Tartus]
The aim of the war is to wipe out all jihadi strongholds, the turn to either Afrin or Deir Ezzor from a strong popular support and greater army recruitment for Assad. Russia wants to Syria to control all of its territory eventually but one jigsaw piece at a time.
The Americans want to extract their team, which has already be alighted to in many comments, US does not want body-bags, thus the alleged SDF will collapse as soon as SAA, Iraqi and Iran [Turkey will be forced to withdraw] moves against them in tandem. Kurds are a common enemy for these 4 countries.
Israel has less capabilities to defend itself but has enough to attack, however the S300 will also cover Lebanon, thus creating a detente in the region, with Iran restrained by Russia. Iran is playing dumb, as more sympathy goes to it as a victim, historically they are not known to be aggressors but normally respond through proxies to any provocation.
Thanks MoA for a wonderful and thought provocating articles and much anticipated comment.

Posted by: CallMeDave | May 11 2018 7:32 utc | 180

Ghost Ship

"Nah, looks like a badly-edited fabricated piece of bullshit so that imbeciles like you can make dumb comments."

Even Sputnik have it up, why are you denying whats going on?

Rob

As many users have pointed out here, Ptuin is not playing this good and not seeing the bigger picture.

Posted by: Anon | May 11 2018 8:28 utc | 181

That video of the pantsir is obviously true as even the Syrians admitted its loss. What it shows is that the turret was locked back and it was inactive(and the crew was loitering around) which aligns with the Syrian claim that it had fired its missile load and was awaiting reload as well.

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | May 11 2018 9:13 utc | 182

I think this is all about what I would call "scab picking avoidance". Usually, if you pick a scab, you just makes it worse. Think of the USSA and Israel as scabs. If you simply avoid picking at them, they will eventually just fall off. I think this is just what the rest of the world is doing. For example, if Russia sends S-300s to Syria, that not only makes it much more expensive for Israel to attack, it is like a chess move. So maybe you save it for when it will have maximum effect. Keeps your powder dry. Don't pick the scabs before they're ripe, if at all.

What I'm seeing is that the USSA and Israel, et al., are ripening quickly and, given time, will just fall away. Because you see they suffer from a fatal form of corruption. Psycho-corruption. The USSA gave all its industry and technology to China "to save labor costs" -- Hahahahaha! It was the war against the working class, but now the Council on Foreign Relations must -- just as Jolly Old England did before -- pay the piper.

This could only happen as a consequence of the insanity of psycho-corruption. Same for Israel. All these Jews that didn't achieve success, or needed to escape criminal charges, decided that their best move was to run off to a barren wilderness already full of dessert-crazed Arabs, as a result of public relations for a giant psycho-corrupt dirty land deal. Well that was smart. All the Russians and Chinese, et al. have to do is keep their powder dry and just wait for these scabs to dry up and fall off. It's a bit ugly, but it's the only way.

Posted by: blues | May 11 2018 9:38 utc | 183

Robert Snefjella @ 60 has hit the nail on the head:


"Putin has explicitly rejected "unipolar" totalitarianism on behalf of national sovereignty and thus made himself and Russia the prime targets of global totalitarianism... The development in China, Iran and Russia over the last two decades of a new generation of weapons, notably precise high speed offensive missile weaponry in conjunction with enhanced defensive capabilities, has created a new global military paradigm which will take a while to impinge upon old imperial habits of mind and behaviour. MAD is now followed by unacceptable risk considerations... Now, the intended global projection of US and thus Israeli power ... has been transformed into the projection of serious vulnerabilities... So the direction, if the madmen can be restrained from ultimate folly, is towards peace and win/win as opposed to the hitherto dominant war and win/lose."

I had reported earlier on SyrianPerspective.com that an informed retired Iranian Air Force commander had told me that Russia "would not allow" Iran to install its anti-aircraft missile batteries and radar arrays in Syria [yet]. And we were not talking about the S-300's (the PMU-2's and PMU-3's), or the Bavar-373, but the Talaash, of which Iran has many more on hand.

As Mr. Snefjella has stated, technological breakthroughs such as these, as well as the numerous supersonic anti-ship missiles (such as the Noor), have changed the game by making aircraft carriers and their aircraft almost obsolete, and thus reducing the US's (and hence Israeli's) ability to project power beyond their borders.

The Syrian War has been won.It is just that because this is at one and the same time the death knell of the Uncle $cam/ Pax Judaica totalitarian world government bu usery project, it is still a tricky situation as the monster is still on his feet, but is staggering and there is a danger of the zombie body falling on anyone at any given time. Given this, methinks it best to think of what Russia, Iran and China are up to as a controlled demolition project. Each has its own ideas as how best to bring this monster down into its own footprint in a way as to maximize his share of the booty. So there will be some growling, and even a warning bite or two between the hunters who have vanquished their prey, but the important thing is that the trio have decided "to pull it", as Lucky Larry famously said.

Nuff Sed.


Posted by: Nuff Sed | May 11 2018 9:51 utc | 184

IMHO In the event of a full on attack, Iran would skip the monkeys (US & Israel) and go straight for the organ grinder (Saudi Arabia). They would get maximum bang for their buck with that.

Posted by: Qualtrough | May 11 2018 9:57 utc | 185

@ Qualtrough | May 11, 2018 5:57:39 AM | 187

Indeed, a shrewd move. Not only a major global oil supply shock 100xworse than 1973, but also a major oil source shift into Shiite hands within the then ex-Saudi regime's previous Arabian estate domain. Shiite Iran and Russia would dominate global supply. Other implications would be an awakened Egypt off the Wahhabi payroll and thus a whole new dynamic surrounding Occupied Palestine. The question is, would Pakistan ship nukes to SA if the price was right? There is little doubt they'd use them on Iran if this transpired.

Posted by: imo | May 11 2018 10:18 utc | 186

@yonatan-51; In the post parade walk, did you notice the number of times Natanyahoo looked nervously back over his shoulder at the crowd following behind him? I don't know, but I guess he must come from a pretty tough neighbourhood.

Posted by: peter | May 11 2018 11:21 utc | 187

For those who do not know, the Talaash, S-300 and Bavar-373 are not solely defensive weapons. Because of their long range (200-300 kms), they can be used to make Ben Gurion Airport into a no-fly zone. Nuff SEd.

Posted by: Nuff Sed | May 11 2018 12:26 utc | 188

>>>>> Anon | May 11, 2018 4:28:31 AM | 183

Even Sputnik have it up, why are you denying whats going on?
/

ROFLOL. You do understand that Sputnik News lifts most of its articles from other websites and rewrites them so it can't be accused of plagiarism? Haven't seen it on AMN so tend to doubt original story

As many users have pointed out here, Ptuin is not playing this good and not seeing the bigger picture.

I can only conclude you're an idiot (IQ 0 -25) because Putin is playing a shit hand very well. It's idiots like you and the others who question Putin who don't know what they're talking about. But since most of your kind are probably employed by some private "perception management" contractor working for the CIA or some such, it's not surprising there are a lot of trolls around.

Posted by: Ghost Ship | May 11 2018 12:26 utc | 189

Grieved @ 165 I thought the interesting thing about the Magnier piece was that he actually stated that Iran started it but not in the way the msm has stated. He goes back to Iran using some drones to aid the Palestinians which then led to the Israeli attack on T4.

But then as you imply Israel overdid it and ended up getting smacked by Syria in the Golan Heights.

I think this implies that both Iran and Syria are ready to step up their game in the much overdue process of dealing with Palestinian and Golan Heights issues. I think these issues are getting more international sympathy, including from Russia.

Posted by: financial matters | May 11 2018 12:26 utc | 190

No S300 for Syria says Russia
https://sptnkne.ws/h4je

Posted by: Anon | May 11 2018 13:30 utc | 191

Did the Israeli strikes hit any Iranians at all? Only Syrians ever get mentioned. I take it from Liebermann's calming talk ("it's over"), that Israel didn't achieve much at all, and that was against Syrians.

Posted by: Laguerre | May 11 2018 13:44 utc | 192

The upgraded Syrian air defenses look to be working well. Israeli aircraft no longer enter Syrian airspace. Medium range and short range air defense systems are better and much cheaper for defending against missile attacks.
If Nutty secured a promise of no S-300 for Syria, what was the trade off? This would not come free of charge.
cleaning up the southwestern area along the Jordan and Israeli borders may be the next Syrian move after clearing the Rastan, Damascus and Dier Ezzor terrorist enclaves.

Posted by: Peter AU 1 | May 11 2018 13:48 utc | 193

@ antispin: While Kennedy may have said it "better", I don't have a phalanx of speech writers. GDP as it is currently formulated is a bankster scam. A Rothschild-bankster scam, encoded into the Bretton Woods scam which made the US$ the international reserve currency. From Bretton Woods came the IMF/BIS/SWIFT/World Bank/etc. scam.

So no wonder the Zionist Rothschilds (notice I DON'T call the R's Jews) are incensed that Syria, one of the few countries without a Rothschild-controlled central bank, is slipping from their grasp. So Israel and the US are mobilized to bring down Assad by evermore overt provocations.

Putin, Assad and Iran/Hizbolla WILL NOT retaliate to such obvious attempts to goad them "into action". Sometimes simply standing firm against a bully is enough to switch the "bystanders" from bully sycophants to supporting the victim.

Iran is not in the same precarious, fairly isolated, economic position it was a decade ago when the seeds of the nuke deal were planted. The 1979 Revolution was a direct result of the 1953 CIA overthrow of democratically elected Mossadegh. THE US gave the brutal, hated Shah of Iran the first nuclear industry, under the "Atoms for Peace" BS. And yet now the Ayatolla is actually fulfilling the "peace" aspect as saying nuke weapons are anti-Muslim...

So which is it, the US wants "atoms for Peace" or not? backing out of the deal may force Iran's hand to do as North Korea did, and build nukes to force the US/Zionist/Rothschilds to the negotiating table. Nuttyyahoo and every Israeli leader has bowed to the will of the Rothschilds. That Lord Rothschild inveigled Balfour to sign the "declaration" that Rothschild wrote shows how much Britain was willing to do to not end up on the "wrong side" of the Zionist cause.

Blake, from the early 1800's:
I will not cease from Mental Fight,
Nor shall my Sword sleep in my hand:
Till we have built Jerusalem,
In Englands green & pleasant Land.

(Ya that poem is based on the totally whacked-out myth that Jesus walked to England.)

I guess Balfour thought, why not have the Zionists build their "Jerusalem" in Palestine, rather than have them continuing to attempt do so in England... Well THAT worked out well... NOT.

All this crap world-wide so the "Jews" can have the homeland promised to them in a set of writings of dubious origin/translation and near zero historical veracity.

Posted by: A P | May 11 2018 13:58 utc | 194

There are limits in place, enforced by Putin/RF MOD in Syria. Israel knows its limits, Iran knows its limits, and even CENTCOM knows its limits.

So, too, there are limits to Russia's abilities, Russian ADs and vital interests.

Everyone is playing within the limits.

Ultimately, this new Syrian War 2.0 will become a long insurgency meant to keep Syria on the ropes, meant to keep Iran from using Syria as it wishes, and meant to keep Golan in Israeli hands.

No one knows the end or can see it. Russia is working to make it end politically.

Posted by: Red Ryder | May 11 2018 14:01 utc | 195

Peter Au1 @196
The upgraded Syrian air defenses look to be working well. Israeli aircraft no longer enter Syrian airspace. Medium range and short range air defense systems are better and much cheaper for defending against missile attacks.

I agree. Also, Syria is quickly gaining enough experience with the upgraded defenses against both near and remotely launched Israeli air-to-ground missiles and their fighters to identify weak points, anticipate flight plans and launch locations of Israel jets given the specific geographic area targeted, and adjust accordingly.

Every time Israel carries out a non-debilitating strike against Syria, it becomes more difficult and dangerous for Israeli fighters to carry out the next one.

Unfortunately, this might also give Israel an incentive to strike again very soon, before the SAA is able to replace, repair, and adjust its air defense equipment.

Posted by: WJ | May 11 2018 14:05 utc | 196

Posted by: Red Ryder | May 11, 2018 10:01:16 AM | 198

The problem with your logic is that Syria is not currently on the ropes, and so cannot logically be kept there. Syria's position does not seem to me to be strikingly worse this week than last week.

Posted by: Laguerre | May 11 2018 14:25 utc | 197

Red Rider @198

That is an extremely clear synopsis of the present situation--Syrian War 2.0 as you call it. In order for this situation to "end politically", the US and Israel must be brought eventually to see that the truth of the matter is as you put it, and that their aims in Syria can never be achieved militarily. One way--perhaps the best way--to understand what are emerging as Russia's rules of military and political engagement is that they are intended to enable the US and Israel to arrive at the same insight you have. For if the matter has any chance of ending politically, the parties involved in the dispute must come to see the truth of this for themselves. Hence the game of waiting, of diplomacy, of negotiated compromise, of crisis deescalation, and so forth.

Posted by: WJ | May 11 2018 14:32 utc | 198

Laguerre @200,

I think that in a certain sense you are right. Syria is not on the ropes as it was in, say, 2015. But in a certain sense this is too simple. Syria is not on the ropes as it was then because of the subsequent intervention of and continued presence of Russia. Syria has been able to succeed in its ground operations against and subsequent relocations of the foreign mercenaries because Russia has protected the airspace of these operations and the SAA more generally. Not until the last of the mercenaries has been deported or killed and the territory so far allotted to Syria can be ruled under the civil law of peace once again is Syria really off the ropes. Even then, so long as U.S. military bases occupy what in fact is part of Syria's sovereign territory, it is doubtful that Syria will ever really be off the ropes.

Posted by: WJ | May 11 2018 14:49 utc | 199

You've lost me there WJ 201. In what way does Red Ryder's synopsis correspond with reality? The Syrian war is going to be decided militarily, by Syrian/Russian victory, not by some political settlement. Putin, it is true, proceeds by fits and spurts, presumably to avoid escalation to WW3. The US is stagnating but not yet ready to admit defeat. The missile attacks either by the US, or Israel, have sputtered out with little real effect. US and Israel are close to being stuck. They don't have many options that could win them the war. The reality of the options for Israel was well shown up by the attack. 1) They're not going to invade Syria (too many deaths, flanks wide open). 2)They don't even overfly Syria, but only fire standoff missiles, a proportion of which are shot down. How boxed-in is that! Losing a pilot would be a national catastrophe. That's not a way to win. whatever winning means.

Posted by: Laguerre | May 11 2018 14:56 utc | 200

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