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Syria – Any U.S. Strike Will Lead to Escalation
Yesterday's alleged 'gas attack' in east Ghouta likely never happened. A video shows a number of presumably dead kids in a basement or dark apartment. Another video shows an undamaged yellow gas cylinder which, we are told, was dropped from some unseen helicopter and crashed through a concrete roof. We do not know when or where these videos were made.
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Besides those videos of murky origin we hear claims from two 'western' paid anti-Syrian propaganda organizations, the White Helmets and SAMS, which claim hundreds were wounded in a chlorine attack.
Interestingly the MI6 outlet in Coventry, the Syrian Observatory For Human Rights (SOHR), does not confirm a 'gas' incident. In its version of events some 40 people died after their shelter collapsed:
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights issued a higher death toll, saying at least 80 people were killed in Douma, including around 40 who died from suffocation. But it said the suffocations were the result of shelters collapsing on people inside them.
Main stream media, which have quoted SOHR for years, now ignore it and report of a 'chemical attack' as if it were a proven reality.
All this happens at a moment when the Syrian army is victorious and Trump had just announced that he wants the U.S. to leave Syria. We noted that something similar happened exactly a year ago when similar illogical claims were made:
We are told to believe that each time the U.S. pulls back from the war on Syria the Syrian government is responding with a 'chemical attack' that pulls the U.S. back in.
Hours later the New York Times headlined: As Trump Seeks Way Out of Syria, New Attack Pulls Him Back In.
Over the last month Russia has several times warned that such fake gas attacks were being planned by the so-called 'rebels'. It also warned the U.S. that any strike it might take in 'retaliation' of such a fake attack would endanger Russian troops and installations in Syria. The Russian said they will respond to any severe U.S. attack with a strike against U.S. missile launching platform – be they jets or ships.
Israel immediately tried to further escalate the situation. Last night it hit the T4 airport in Homs with 8 cruise missiles launched from Israeli planes flying over Lebanon. The T4 airport is in the middle of Syria. Some Iranian drones are stationed there next to Syrian planes and helicopters to help in the fight against ISIS in east Syria. The damage was relatively light, but the Israeli strike requires a response. Russia had so far not commented on any Israeli strikes on Syria. This time it was first to condemn the attack. It will no longer hinder Syria or Iran should they decide to launch a counterattack on Israel or its interests.
Douma, where the alleged 'gas attack' happened, is now accessible. The terrorist of Jaish al-Islam are being evacuated to Idleb governorate. Russian military police entered and did not find any indication for the alleged chemical incident. The OPCW or some other organization could investigate the situation. This would as usual take several weeks.
Trump is under pressure from neoconservatives, military hawks ans some allies to do 'something', i.e. to attack Syria, and to do it immediately. Such an attack would likely escalate.
So far Trump sounds uncommitted:
Speaking at a Cabinet meeting, Trump promised a “major decision” over the next 24 and 48 hours and said one may come as soon as the end of the day. The U.S. president was meeting with military advisers Monday evening.
“Nothing is off the table,” he said when asked if U.S. military action was a possibility.
Russian troops in Syria and the Syrian army have raised their alarm levels. Should an attack come they will be ready to respond in kind.
There are 68 comments as I write. They show amazing agitation, when nothing is really happening. I wish I could suggest to calm down. Nothing of substance will happen, unless it’s done by reliable people, such as the Russians.
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b – nice summation of the events. Have you noticed that describing the enemy activity takes less and less words? Their playbook and character are being reduced to smaller paragraphs. Soon we’ll have sentences, then memes then paradigms and before you know it, there will be no mystery about them, and everyone will be able to pick up on the truth of what’s happening, even the formerly indoctrinated.
This is how a propaganda veil ruptures and shreds and disappears into mere wisps. This is what’s really happening.
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We absolutely know that the US is going to do nothing. We know this from having observed and studied and learned its true heft, and its untrue bluster. And its actual, factual activities, which are those of withdrawing, continually, behind a wall of smoke, and claims of victory.
Even Israel, that crazed and unspeakable demon, is not able to goad or entice or bully the US into doing something real on the battle field. Even Israel, host or kin to the most powerful forces in the world, is unable to move the US into the destruction of its forces and probably the world.
All the power is draining from the actors and they can’t even inspire a new screenwriter.
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There are two paths that open for Russia at this time of the world’s history, and they run alongside each other for some years yet. She can persevere with the existing institutions of peaceful coexistence, and she can work towards creating alternatives, for herself and several other nations who would prefer to build a new world rather than to continue much longer within the limitations of the old. I refer to the UN, the Hague, the OPCW, FIFA, and even the Eurovision Song Contest, for crying out loud.
And it doesn’t have to be a clear cut choice, a black and white, overnight choice.
Russia is actually setting the agenda of how this situation progresses, have you noticed? What will Russia do? No one knows. She will do what she chooses. But it won’t be in reaction to small events. It will be from choices and deliberations made up of the sum of smaller things, for sure. But Russia will make civilizational choices.
And along this path, it will continue to slice the apparent options into thin slivers, turning what we think of as stark choices into half a dozen finer increments of escalation. Russia will bring its earnest and sincere presence and reason to each sliver, and ask if there are any takers. It will continue to gather friends and allies, and to wean the vassals off their feed, and inspire the beguiled out of their thralldom. And all the while it will evolve along a trajectory of reason that will bring it to whatever conclusions it finally arrives at. But all of this will be kind to ordinary people, and caring of civilians.
And probably none of it will fight back in the terms which we in our armchairs think we see are the terms presented by the situation.
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Honestly, I’m astonished that people forget all this so easily, when a few silly munitions and lies roll across the theater. This is not where Russia is looking – at least, not with much of its attention. Underneath and behind all this noise on the field, Russia makes its choices in a very sane and humane way.
I feel increasingly safe because Russia is leading the way now, and the evil players are following this real narrative, unable to compete with its false narrative. The universe has forsaken the colonialists. It is the age of the natives.
Of course there will be ups and downs. But surely there is vastly more to celebrate than to fear?
Posted by: Grieved | Apr 10 2018 0:53 utc | 74
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