Afrin, and the games being played there, are a tough one to figure. I suspect that is partly because it’s like a four-sided triangle, with each potential alliance carrying diametrically opposing pros and cons. Why would Russia tacitly green-light Turkish intervention?
Some thoughts: (1) The Kurds have been coddled and supported by the US and Israel for many years as a long-term Israel 2.0 project. They would of course be used, marginalized, and ultimately cast out once the Zionists had their new and improved homeland, but the Kurdish dream of “Kurdistan” blinds them.
(2) Every power in the ME (except Israel) is against the Kurds becoming too powerful, for precisely this reason, and the number one reason Russia agreed to loose the Turks on Afrin was because it was the showcase of Syrian Kurdish pomposity and refusal to submit to Syrian sovereignty, while simultaneously demonstrating what the Russians had been telling the Kurds in back channels for ages—the US is just using you and will not help when you call.
(3) Russia or the SAA could not really directly attack the Kurds, both because they are the sympathetic darlings of western press, and it would drive them further into the arms of the US. Let the Turks be the bad guys, especially since that has the added bonus of increasing the split between the US and Turkey.
(4) The attack would serve to draw Kurds away from other areas in NE Syria they had expanded into as the military spearhead of the US. It will be much easier for Assad to turn or defeat the remaining Arab tribes, even though temporarily the US is doing everything it can to stave off this inevitable result. But at least you won’t have the SAA directly fighting Kurds, which the US could use much more effectively to attempt to garner support for its actions.
(5) While the Russians had some historic pull with the Kurds, the US had effectively enticed them away with goodies and promises. For Russia to get the Kurds to back down in Afrin (and other areas) would be very difficult—just not much direct leverage short of openly hitting them. But once the operation has achieved the (Russian) goals of suitably weakening and humbling the Kurds, Russia does have significant leverage against the Turks. Russia already demonstrated once how much economic pain they could inflict on Turkey after the first plane shootdown, but also wisely not only reversed the sanctions but rewarded the apologies with even bigger rewards (meaning the pain of return to sanctions would be even more painful and embarrassing to Ergodan—effectively probably guaranteeing the end of his rule). So while not ideal to have Turkey inside Syria, Russia probably feels they can ultimately force a withdrawal, especially if Turkey’s somewhat justified fear of a Kurdish stronghold is neutralized.
(6) Lastly, Russia could have a long term concept for how the Kurds—suitably humbled and servient but still relatively strong and cohesive—could be useful to Damascus. Russia had her own troublesome nomadic warriors roaming its south. It never could really completely subdue the Cossacks, until Catherine the Great (or perhaps it was Peter) had the bright idea to put them on the payroll, arm them and give them some autonomy, on the condition THEY be the shield against the constant attempts of encroachment by, you guessed it, the Turks. It worked brilliantly.
I would not bet much money on any of this, but those were some thoughts I thought I’d share on a dreary Sunday.

Posted by: J Swift | Mar 4 2018 20:23 utc | 4

J Swift@4
You’re presuming that Russia really did greenlight the Turkish attack on Afrin. I would be surprised. You suggest that the Syrians want to attack the Kurds. Nothing could be further from the truth. Syria prefers to entice the Kurds into preferring a future association, when the US has left. That’s probably the main misdirection of your analysis – the Russians go firstly with Syrian interests, so were unlikely to encourage the Turks.

Posted by: Laguerre | Mar 4 2018 21:12 utc | 6

Putin’s revelations show that the Russians feel the situation is becoming increasingly dangerous. There is just no way to talk sense into the Americans, just as it would have been futile to advise Britain against stopping their 20-year planning for a war with Germany in the years leading up to WWI, even if proceeding meant impoverishing their aristocracy and their country and sacrificing their young men. 31 per cent of Oxford’s 1913 graduates were killed on French fields. I used to think self-preservation was stronger than greed but now I am not so sure.

Posted by: Lochearn | Mar 4 2018 22:21 utc | 8

“Russia appears to have won at least a partial victory in Syria” because it actually took to the field and systematically attacked ISIS. This cannot be said of the U.S. “effort.” Read this quote from a BBC story about how the U.S. cooperated with ISIS to allow it to escape destruction in Raqqah:

“Along the route, many people we spoke to said they heard coalition aircraft, sometimes drones, following the convoy.
From the cab of his truck, Abu Fawzi watched as a coalition warplane flew overhead, dropping illumination flares, which lit up the convoy and the road ahead.
When the last of the convoy were about to cross, a US jet flew very low and deployed flares to light up the area. IS fighters [were very scared].”

Thomas Friedman in the New York Times, describes the U.S. “pretend” war against ISIS:

“America’s goal in Syria is to create enough pressure on Assad, Russia, Iran and Hezbollah so they will negotiate a power-sharing accord… that would also ease Assad out of power.”
Therefore, since the Islamic States’ “goal is to defeat Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria — plus its Russian, Iranian and Hezbollah allies… we could simply back off fighting territorial ISIS in Syria and make it entirely a problem for Iran, Russia, Hezbollah and Assad.”

Posted by: Col. B. Bunny | Mar 4 2018 22:32 utc | 10

The military Review article is hard going with the obligatory propaganda lines that contradict themselves, But one thing the author did pick up on is that Russia runs a number of strategies concurrently to get to a given goal.
Saker who’s area of professional expertise was analyzing Soviet military, has often pointed this out. This is contrasted to US military thinking that has one strategy to get to a given goal and all resources are put into that strategy or line of advance. Very noticeable among the US military indoctrinated types at SST.

Posted by: Peter AU 1 | Mar 4 2018 23:21 utc | 12

@ paveway “A broken, corrupt, useless Baathist government in Damascus.”
You could say the opposite. Syrian Government re-made. Re-focused with one of the world’s best armies. Reoriented with regard to neoliberalism. How has a useless government resisted the combined strength of the Empire, Israel, Saudi and Gulf, UK and France to name just a few?

Posted by: Lochearn | Mar 4 2018 23:45 utc | 14

>>>> English Outsider | Mar 4, 2018 5:02:19 PM | 7

Has the man holding the two children appeared in other photographs? The face seems familiar.

He looks similar to Mr Alhamdo, a.k.a Abdulkafi, but I don’t think they’re the same person.

Posted by: Ghost Ship | Mar 5 2018 0:11 utc | 16

J Swift, PavewayIV
You are forgetting that what triggered Erdogan was Mattis’ assertion that US was training a 30,000 strong ‘border force’.
J Swift should add option #8: Erdogan insisted on attacking Afrin. If Russia denyied Erdogan’s wishes she risked a possible break withTurkey. Erdogan might have also pointed to the drone attack on a Russian base – conducted from Turkish-controlled terittory, saying that than attack on the Kurds would help avenge this attempted ‘false flag’. I bet that such an argument would’ve appealed to the Russians.
Was it coincidence that the reaction to Mattis’ remarks would result in an attack on Afrin only weeks before the Sochi talks? Talks that had already been delayed twice before to ensure that they went well. Well, we now have a report that the strategy of the “small group” included sabotaging the Sochi talks.
Even before that report came out I thought that sabotaging Sochi was what the attack on Afrin was all about so I predicted that after Sochi Erdogan would stop his attack on Afrin with some excuse. Later, I realized that the ’Assad must go!’ Coalition needs to move refuges back. And taking Afrin might also be ‘payment’ for Erdogan to act more favorably toward USA. Northeastern Syria needs supply lines, after all. In that context “Olive Branch” makes sense as rapproachment with USA. (in line with the rouse that Gulen-CIA were responsible for the 2016 apparent coup attempt).

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Mar 5 2018 0:40 utc | 18

With US-NATO having thrown away the ABM treaty in 2002, expanded NATO to an hours drive of St Petersburg. Putting 400 nuclear capable missiles on Russia’s borders, running a Nazi like defamation campaign against Russia and Russians, implemented the right of first nuclear strike “nuclear primacy” (maybe could’ve called it ‘nuclear exceptionalism’)offense policy (can’t call it Defence), building up forces in Eastern Europe, supplying Ukraine with weapons and training. Etc.
Russia has to be worried. No mistaking it’s Cold War II.
Russians must wonder when is Operation Barbarossa 2 coming?
So Putin unveiled Russia’s new 20 Mach hypersonic ICBMs that can hug alpine valleys and the ocean surface or floor, or can go into orbit, circle the globe and rain down with the “speed of meteors”, as well as dodge anti missile interception.
In Cold War I there was a good half hour red button decision time.
Now in Cold War II it is about the time it takes to have a pee.
The fate of the 🌎 could rest on the health of a presidential prostate.
With about a couple of minutes red button decision time, we would not have survived to be here if that’d been the case for Cold War I.
So what to do. Well a much more rapid awakening of the media brainwashed masses and a new Peace Movement is really the only obvious answer.
Despair.
What keeps me totally from despair is a bit more left field. The information in this documentary and others like it. Whatever your current opinion on UFOs, it is obvious to blind Freddy there is a coverup. So see what all these ageing military guys needed to get off their consciences. It does offer hope in a M.A.D. world.
https://topdocumentaryfilms.com/ufos-nukes-secret-link-revealed/
Definitely fascinating at very least.

Posted by: apHarri | Mar 5 2018 0:55 utc | 20

peter @ 13…
I listened to assad declare he would support new elections and even a constitution, once war is declared over and martial law is over..
I know that he inherited the leadership from his family, and that he had studied in Europe and lived abroad before his familial appointment..
i gathered he did not necessarily relish leaving his normal life to go and be the leader of Syria…
I can find very little information on political parties or rivals in syrian politics(such as it is)
again, any good links to study would be welcome///
regards
OY
ps…most of what ive found is of the “we hate assad…we love assad” nature…more tribal than constructive…

Posted by: oldenyoung | Mar 5 2018 1:18 utc | 22

oldenyoung “…most of what ive found is of the “we hate assad…we love assad” nature…more tribal than constructive…”
This may well be Syria. I have found Magnier perhaps the best on the various groups/factions in Syria but that is more long term reading than set pieces that can be linked to. Other journalists from Syria and Lebanon at different times have bits and pieces of information.
Back in 2014 when Australia first got involved in Iraq and Syria, I spent a lot of time looking for information on Syria. All I could find was propaganda pieces or pieces written entirely with a western mindset and no understanding of local culture as much was not explained in those pieces.

Posted by: Peter AU 1 | Mar 5 2018 2:05 utc | 24

And the Oscar goes to … Myron C. Fagan on Council on Foreign Relations

In addition to the Rhodes and similar scholarships, today there are three special Illuminati schools located in Gordonstown in Scotland, Salem in Germany, and Annavrighta in Greece. These three are known ones, but there are others that are kept undercover. Prince Philip, the husband of Britain’s Queen Elizabeth, was educated at Gordonstown at the instigation of Lord Louis Mountbatten, his uncle, a Rothschild relative, who became Britain’s Admiral of the Fleet after World War II ended.
All influential people trapped into coming under the control of the Illuminati, plus the students who had been specially educated and trained, were to be used as agents and placed behind the scenes of all governments as experts and specialists so they would advise the top executives to adopt policies which would in the long run serve the secret plans of the Illuminati one-world conspiracy and bring about the destruction of the governments and religions they were elected or appointed to serve.
Do you know how many such men operate in our government at this very time? Dean Rusk, Robert McNamara, Hubert Humphrey, Fulbright, Keekle, and goes on and on and on.
Perhaps the most vital directive in Weishaupt’s plan was to obtain absolute control of the press, at that time the only mass communications media, to distribute information to the public so that all news and information could be slanted so that the masses could be convinced that a one-world government is the only solution to our many and varied problems.
Do you know who owns and controls our mass communications media? I’ll tell you. Practically all the movie lots in Hollywood is owned by the Lehmans; Kuhn, Loeb, and Company; Goldman-Sachs; and other internationalist bankers. All the national radio and TV channels in the nation are owned and controlled by those same internationalists bankers.
The same is true of every chain of metropolitan newspapers and magazines, also of the press wire services, such as Associated Press, United Press International, etc.. The supposed heads of all those media are merely the fronts for the internationalist bankers, who in turn compose the hierarchy of the CFR, today’s Illuminati in America.
Now can you understand why the Pentagon Press agent, Sylvester, so brazenly proclaimed that the government has the right to lie to the people. What he really meant was that our CFR controlled government had the power to lie to and be believed by the brain-washed American people.

Interesting The Occult Symbolism of the Los Angeles Central Library
The Oscars and The Babylon Gate – Global Truth

Posted by: PeacefulProsperity | Mar 5 2018 2:22 utc | 26

apHarri @ 20: Thanks for the video, kinda’ begs the question, what’s the friggen holdup on making a real difference in our societies short comings?

Posted by: ben | Mar 5 2018 3:35 utc | 28

Jackrabbit@18 – I have to admit that I still have no clue, not even a good guess, as to what the Turkish head-chopper invasion is all about. Forcible return of Syrian refugees from Turkish camps to Syria has to be a big factor. I’m guessing Turkey doesn’t care to have the head-choppers return either, so it will leave them in Syria along with the refugees. Maybe the Afrin invasion was to bait as many sympathetic PKK as possible to join their Afrin colleagues and trap them there as well. Turkey seems perfectly capable of maintaining their borders when they choose to do so. The head-chopper revolving door into Syria was a matter of convenience at one time, but now Turkey wants everyone out. I don’t know if they really need a buffer zone inside the Syrian border, but hey – why not? If the world squawks too much, they can just withdraw Turkish troops and seal the border.

Posted by: PavewayIV | Mar 5 2018 4:46 utc | 30

Peter AU 1 @21:
I’ve read that Xi is going to abolish Term Limits in their Constitution. No idea if true.

Posted by: Ian | Mar 5 2018 5:23 utc | 32

Patrick Cockburn has had some pretty sensible articles on the growth of ISIS in Iraq and its expansion into Syria over the past 4 years. In general he has shown good judgement in the past. His latest article on Syria presents a pretty pessimistic appraisal. I hope he is wrong. It seems he thinks Syria is going to permanently divided more or less according to the Yinon plan.

Posted by: ToivoS | Mar 5 2018 5:40 utc | 34

Ian 32
I think China has abolished term limits.
That combined with the article from Sputnik makes me wonder if they are now moving to a war footing.
China have been taking some shit from the US for some time now as month in, month out, every year for the last decade or more they have been bleeding the US to the tune of 30 billion per month. Trump is trying to stop this, and if sdo, China has no reason to continue taking shit from the US and its megaphone minions like us in oz.

Posted by: Peter AU 1 | Mar 5 2018 5:59 utc | 36

Ian
We posted comments 35 and 36 at about the same time. Checked the Chinese constitution and it does stipulate two terms.
Perhaps abolishing term limits has already been agreed upon with just the motions to go through to change the constitution?

Posted by: Peter AU 1 | Mar 5 2018 6:10 utc | 38

Debsisdead
Thanks for the info on changing presidential terms.
To date, China has given no indication of Empire or hegemony ambitions.
War, hot or cold can change the outlook. Victors will be somewhat pissed if they are the state that has been attacked. China and Russia have a strategic partnership. I do not see US winning. Barring it going nuclear, the aftermath will be hard on the piss-ant megaphone minions.

Posted by: Peter AU 1 | Mar 5 2018 7:13 utc | 40

@ Ian, Peter AU1 & Debs about Xi and term limits
I went to my China aggregator web site where I have read such rumblings in the past week and now cannot find a trace…..interesting, because I have search stuff and found it before.
I have been watching the situation and wondering, if for China, it is a way to show continuity of mature leadership during being challenged by the current empire. Just like Putin is being “challenged” by empire during this Russia election.
I sure as hell hope someones at that level have a game plan more than us lesser beings can textualize about…..except the someones for empire which needs to die

Posted by: psychohistorian | Mar 5 2018 7:33 utc | 42

@ Jackrabbit, PavewayIV
Turkish TVs accused Genie Energy (pointing out the shady guys on it’s board) last night. The Turkish analysts base their claims on a network of foreign analysts which apparently think Genie Energy is ‘solely’ responsible for all the problems in Syria in that they planned the war and have been administering it to this day.
The analysts are drawing attention to the risk of AQ, ISIS, Nusra etc. or whatever people call them, let’s say the head-choppers, going in to Turkey because they fear radical islamists are about to declare jihad against Turkey sometime in the near future. Erdogan’s defense is this ‘Assad is a mass murderer!’ to keep the islamic fighters at bay. Actually there is almost a consensus in the country that TR govt. should openly talk to Assad to prevent SR from breaking into pieces (4?). It was Obama admin’s idea to support the Islamists, Erdogan agreed to the plan and now he is stuck.
There are so many different groups in Syria especially in Idlib. I think instead of using names we need Pantone codes to identify these entities.
The OpOlive has been a success so far but the Turks suspect there will be a massive resistance in Afrin town center.
Erdogan’s govt. maybe planning to use the potentiallly successful Afrin op to their benefit in the upcoming elections but the general public will not be satisfied because the real problem area is the East of Euphrates. Erdogan’s guys seem to think that they need US support to stay in power. All sugar beet factories are being sold and the public think this has something to do with the Zarrab case in NY which is really undermining the Erdogan govt. No beet root factories means more Cargill domination in Turkey so people think Erdogan is bribing the Americans to stay in power.
Today the US embassy to Ankara is closed due to security risk according to the USembassy statement. Coincidentally the TR security forces detained 30 ISIS guys today. It’s been 6 months and the US ambassador to Turkey has still not been appointed. In 3 days TR-US talks will begin as planned after Tillerson’s visit. So everybody is waiting for Erdogan, who was on a tour of Africa, to find out what’s govt’s plan for the next weeks because right now people don’t know to which direction they are heading.

Posted by: ConfusedPundit | Mar 5 2018 8:23 utc | 44

Ian@41
Mao definitely did NOT suffering from dementia.
According to the book “Nachbar China”written by Helmut Schmidt, ex Chancellor of Germany, who visited China in 1975, one year before Mao’s death, Mao talked with him about a wide vertiety of topics, ranging from potential nuclear war between USSR and Europe/Nato to the changes of Soviet’s leadership, from Europe unification to Japan’s reliance on USA, from Clausewitz to Marx, etc.
Herr Schmidt said he was very impressed with Mao’s strategic thinking. Some of Mao’s basic judgement of the world affair at that time is still valid today:
– Europe is full of contradictory/conflicting-interest countries and is too weak.
– Japan totally depedents on US, but US is streching itself from Japan to Korea, Taiwan, Philippines, India, Australia and NZ, to Middle East, Europe and the whole American continent. In my eyes, this is not going to work. US can only rely on its own strength. Any build-up of its other allies will be second class.
He also mentioned some interesting ancedotes, for example, Mao greeted him by saying “You are Kantian, I am Marxist.”
I’d strongly recommend this book “Nachbar China” to anyone who are interested to know the real bit of China and to peep into how its system functions.

Posted by: mali | Mar 5 2018 10:26 utc | 46

@Swift , 4 and Laguerre, 6; PavewayIV, 9
>Why would Russia tacitly green-light Turkish intervention?
It was difficult not to ‘tacitly green-light’ it, with Turkey, at the time their coalition partner, assembling a quite strong group, with tanks and military-grade electronic warfare on the border; while the Kurds not being there partners and seen as aligned with USA (+effectively controlling oil rich region, as part of this). But it was driven by Turkey, outraged by the (Kurdish/US) ‘border force’ plan, and not driven by another player.
Russia likely tried somewhat to avoid this, with Turksih generals in Moscow and Russian observers in Afrin leaving or not leaving in alteration for about a day prior to invasion. Apparently they were trying to see whether or not Kurds will come under Assad control but that did not happen. While there was some emotional sympathy, (with Kurds relatives of Armenians, and Lavrov half Armenian, say), it was not strong enough of a reason to jump in fending off a real strong force in wait on the border.
Some Russians tried to explore this situation, but later after the invasion. That attempt went very badly at Deir ez-Zor, with heavy Russian PMC casualties, trying to capture an Arab tribe controlled oil processing plant (with security and US air support called possibly by the Kurds or whatever other mix of people in the actual security control of the area).

Posted by: Don Karlos | Mar 5 2018 10:40 utc | 48

Is Russia’s nuclear powered cruise missile real or fake?
Of the weapons systems that Putin announced, most of the reaction in the west so far has been denial and skepticism. We are more likely to believe that facebook posts are a Pearl Harbor sized attack on our democracy rather than believe that the Russians can surpass our military technology at any point in time.
However, in the paywall article that B linked to foreignpolicy.com, I did find the skepticism regarding the cruise missile warranted. It does seem like it would be difficult to test an air based nuclear powered missile because of the potential for radiation fallout. I do not believe that Putin bluffs but does anyone have a theory on how such a weapon can be staged through development? It would have to both fly clean and crash relatively clean during the test flight since that would not be a nuclear armed flight.
The actual deployment of the nuclear cruise missile, drone torpedo, and new ICBM will be confirmed as long as the START treaty holds as those weapons have to be counted towards Russia’s 1,500 strategic missile quota. So eventually, the Pentagon will have to acknowledge them or believe that the Russians are willing to slice into their quota just to deceive us.

Posted by: Christian Chuba | Mar 5 2018 12:22 utc | 50

Correction for @51:
Had it NOT for some of the “Old Guards”, China would have had its own Gorbachev in the combination of these two.

Posted by: mali | Mar 5 2018 12:46 utc | 52

mali
Thanks for the clarification. So the removal of the term limit of the President position is really aligning it with the other two positions?
BTW, is “Nachbar China” only available in German?

Posted by: Ian | Mar 5 2018 13:26 utc | 54

Christian Chuba @ 50
I expect the test missiles are currently on the ocean floor somewhere. There is also this:
Mysterious enriched uranium particle detected in skies over Alaska [RT]

Scientists have found a “highly unusual” particle enriched with uranium in the skies over Alaska’s Aleutian Islands. The source of the substance, which is typically used in nuclear fuel and bombs, is still unclear.
The mysterious substance “containing a very small amount of enriched uranium” was found at an altitude of 7km (4.3 miles) above Alaska’s Aleutian Islands, according to a report issued by the Journal of Environmental Radioactivity.
It is the first time the group of US scientists has detected enriched uranium-235 in their 20-year study. They were making no special attempt to sample radioactive material, when they came across it during a routine flight to check atmospheric conditions in August 2016.

Posted by: integer | Mar 5 2018 14:03 utc | 56

Posted by: Debsisdead | Mar 5, 2018 3:21:29 AM | 43
The China of 100 years ago was a neo-colonized and disunited China, humiliated by and powerless against Western and especially British imperialism, which forced China to import opium, addicting millions. Warlords controlled that trade, and their private armies were more powerful than the central government’s. They eventually threw in with Chiang Kai Shek.
Mao was the man who commanded the struggle that won the wars and ended the humiliation, and created economic strength as you’ve described, but it was very limited and unimpressive relative to the big Western powers, and people lived, let’s say, very austerely.
Deng all the way to Xi represent the emergence of an economic collosus that the Chinese are extremely proud of. They’re not proud of the nouveau riche … but of China’s world power status and its future.
It has a long way to go, but I see China moving toward an obviously authoritarian, state-power-centered but capitalist society like Singapore (times 500). That city state also had one-man rule for a long time, and President Lee created a prosperous, fairly egalitarian society with minimal corruption. Like Singapore, China won’t be neoliberal, which to me means abandoning all to the corrupt market, in particular responsibility for the people’s welfare. I hope it will also have that ‘no poor people’ thing that Singapore has. We’ll see what happens over the next 10-15 years.

Posted by: fairleft | Mar 5 2018 15:54 utc | 58

oldenyoung — Assad was a popular leader before the *supposed* civil war in Syria began.
(I confess he is my least favorite ‘dictator’, as compared to Milosevic, Saddam, Kadafi.)
Yet, Assad has held on beyond all expectations and somehow found some grit and honour. Which was NOT expected. >>.. Having Russian support is fantastic help.
In a ‘free and fair’ election Assad would win no matter what exactly the composition of Syria. However, who ‘wins’ is perhaps not so important, (see Russia, always stating, it is up to the ppl of Syria..) though Assad has become a symbol of resistance to the US Pax Americana / empire.
Telling, for ex. is that the ‘opposition’ (org. by USA-Isr-KSA-other) is again talking about changing the Constitution. Assad re-vamped it and a new one was proposed, accepted by referendum, in 2012. Imho a weak, appeasing move, made by Assad to fend off some attackers (as if that would stop them)…big mistake.
The present text: Syria Const. 2012, PDF
Ppl who live in ‘democracies’ – the USA and France are representative Republics, not ‘democracies’ – should realise that they are called on to vote for false choices and there is nothing noble about that at all. It actually latches into the divide-to-rule schema. Such as in left-right in the USA, which along with Kim Kardashian and School Shootings keeps ppl entertained and paralysed.

Posted by: Noirette | Mar 5 2018 16:30 utc | 60

hey since it is an open thread – does anyone know the relationship with russia and neoliberalism? is russia into this? thanks…

Posted by: james | Mar 5 2018 17:18 utc | 62

@47 & @60
Thank you for the important info. I fail to see who could be a solid candidate to replace Assad in Syria’s next presidential elections only 3 years away..

Posted by: Lozion | Mar 5 2018 17:42 utc | 64

hoarse @ 64
https://www.popsci.com/russia-wants-to-test-nuclear-space-engine-in-2018
yes that is how they work
regards
OY

Posted by: oldenyoung | Mar 5 2018 18:04 utc | 66

Ian @54
Yes, that’s what the spokesman of China’s National People’s Congress (NPC) said: this change is to align with the other two positions.
Of course politics is always more complicated than it appears. My guess there must be some other political motivations behind it. One might be the current candidate to succeed Xi is deemed not suitable enough. We just have to wait and see.
Btw, Frau Merkel is just got confirmed to start her 4th term as Chancellor of Germany. We don’t hear any loud cry from MSM.
Unfortunately, “Nachbar China”is only available in German. Don’t know why nobody tries to translate it into English. It is one of the few books about China worth of your time to read IMHO.
Herr Schmidt is one of few rare statesmen left from WWII: intelligent, not afraid to take responsibility and to make hard decisions. He famously said: “Whoever has vision should go to see a doctor.” („Wer Visionen hat, sollte zum Arzt gehen”)
I found just some old pieces of his speechs in English, you may have a “taste” of his sharp wits: SYND 30 11 74 SCHMIDT AT LABOUR CONFERENCE
For anyone who understand German, he talked about China and other topics during this interview from 2008, in which :Helmut Schmidt bei Sandra Maischberger – 2008 – Teil 1 von 8

Posted by: mali | Mar 5 2018 18:28 utc | 68

“He is fitting a different engine to already developed missile. Most of engine work can be done in a lab. Once parts are safe, few final tests (with parachute/over test ground/over the ocean).” – Don Karlos

Yes, I buy it. Cruise missiles don’t have to travel whipping fast, somewhere between 600 to 1000 mph, so parachuting over open water is feasible. Also, they can test the cruise missile at a higher altitude or have it loft to a higher altitude when the want it’s flight path to end. All they have to do is to figure out how to shield the reactor but that can be done in a lab. I really do buy it.

Posted by: Christian Chuba | Mar 5 2018 18:51 utc | 70

Debsisdead 39
All should read William Hinton’s incisive 2003 essay ‘ The Role of Mao T’se Tung’
Certainly backs up all you say from an informed angle . I am sure an astute Marxist analyst, as Castro stressed Xi – Ping definitely is knows it by heart !

Posted by: ashley albanese | Mar 5 2018 19:07 utc | 72

Interesting documentary about Ernesto Ché Guevara and his last days, which may contradict other versions recently published at other blogs about his assasination:
“Che. La peligrosa costumbre de seguir naciendo”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ivj-A1kjUIA
It is in Spanish, but some important statements by certain Cuban CIA agent are made in English…
It was not such a feat, as some people out there try to brag about, but what they hunted was a barefoot and sick man who weighed only 50 kg at the time….They were not hungry indians who caught him under the direction of US Army Special Forces, but Bolivian professional military who, still with everything in favour, could not caught him until an indian who has seen the guerrila passing delated him…

Posted by: Fatima Manoubia | Mar 5 2018 20:26 utc | 74

Thanks to Peter, Jen and Noirette for any info…
I guess where i was looking for confirmation is, Does Syria have an Answer for their problem? Is it Assad? or anyone?
It looks like Syria will finally win the major battles, to the point where they have at least a defensible perimeter…but
Syria is going to be as broke as it can be by then…several million refugees are going to show up with empty stomachs and nothing to do..
Will Russia and Iran support Syria at this level, to rebuild? If not it would be very easy to foment “discontent” again…and it remains vulnerable to the same powers that have sought to destabilize it…Syria 3.0 is not what they need
regards
OY

Posted by: oldenyoung | Mar 5 2018 21:13 utc | 76

oldenyoung “Does Syria have an Answer for their problem?”
Depends on what you consider is their ‘problem’. I see Syria’s main problem as divide and conquer attacks by foreign forces and Syria’s vulnerability to these attacks.
I would look to Putin’s strategy in the second Chechen war though Syria is far more complicated and many more groups than Chechnya. First Chechen war was Chechen’s fighting for independence on the breakup of the Soviet Union. Wahabbis and Cia then moved in and second Chen war started or quickly devolved into a three way war. All Chechen vs Russia but also traditional Chechen vs wahabbi/CIA converts. Putin’s deal with Kadyrov senior was along the lines that Russian Federation would protect the traditional Chechens from foreign attacks and Chechens would have a good deal of autonomy for their traditional culture, and in return Chechnya would give its loyalty to the Russian federation. A strength in numbers type deal from what I can make out. Also, it seems kadyrov junior as leader of Chechnya is only answerable to the president of the Russian and only deals direct one on one with the RF president.
I would guess that something along these lines is what Russia is looking for if there are any changes to the Syrian constitution.

Posted by: Peter AU 1 | Mar 5 2018 21:59 utc | 78

Jen, thanks for the background on Asma. I would guess any replacement to Assad would have to be well known, with a good track record over the last seven years, and be acceptable to the majority of groups. Suheil al-Hassan head of tiger forces I think would be a contender.
As for the presidential election, I woulkd guess their would be much discussion and negotiation between parties/groups beforehand on a candidate that is acceptable to the majority of groups, and the actual election then becomes a formality in which the decided on candidate is then voted for by the majority of groups that have already picked the candidate.

Posted by: Peter AU 1 | Mar 5 2018 22:16 utc | 80

re 77
“So she certainly has the background, the experience and the intelligence to be President if she wants the job.”
I couldn’t agree more, but a Sunni from Homs, they’re not likely to agree to. A mafia, in the end.

Posted by: Laguerre | Mar 5 2018 22:35 utc | 82

@2 ninel
Thanks for posting. Great to hear Crooke speak – a clear, assured voice. Lavelle didn’t get in tne way too much. An enjoyable interview, and would reflect a lot of what we read here at MofA on Syria.
@82 “.. too many Americans don’t know how they got to where they are today, nor are they able to see the dire direction the nation’s heading, while too few have any idea of what must be done to facilitate a renovation that would lead to rejuvenation. …”
Yes, a fair comment I would say. Long gone is the idealogical war that served the US capitalist so well after WW2. An extraordinary effort now to reconjure the red boogeyman so soon after claiming #1, only to be mere decades later by two countries with richer histories that have done their homework and taken the parts of capitalism that works for them. How do you fight something that does better business in your image…?
You can only laugh at the slow motion train wreck, as US capitalism clamps down on free speech and promotes censorship via it’s corporate arm. The people really have lost touch with what made them great. The dumbing down is complete.

Posted by: MadMax2 | Mar 5 2018 23:50 utc | 84

@1 I thought the article surprisingly objective, considering. An excerpt:
“Russia pursued an emergent, or “lean,” strategy. This was an approach characterized by the “fail fast, fail cheap” ethos of startup business, with iterative adjustments to the operation. The centerpiece of this strategy was flexibility, with a preference for adaptation over more structured strategy. In emergent strategy, success begets success, while failure is never final or disqualifying..”

Posted by: rackstraw | Mar 6 2018 1:28 utc | 86

Xi extended rule dictatorship
Assad extended rule dictatorship
Putin re-elected dictatorship
McCain meeting with headchoppers, democracy at it’s finest
2 terms of Obama where he is pretty good a killing people, democracy

Posted by: Duck1 | Mar 6 2018 1:43 utc | 88

Oldenyoung @ 76:
From the little that I have been able to find on the Internet, I believe that Syria does have reconstruction plans and that firms from Russia, China and Iran have been given first preference to bid for projects.
There is also a reconciliation process for those jihadis who agree to surrender and lay down their arms.
Refugees are returning to their former places of residence in Syria. I’m not sure of the exact numbers but they are above 500,000.
Here’s a documentary “Aleppo – Renaissance” on the reconstruction of that city:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BCOVHGLPtL4
This information won’t answer all of your questions about Syria’s postwar rehabilitation but I hope it helps answer some.

Posted by: Jen | Mar 6 2018 2:45 utc | 90

interesting… ‘Operational pause’: Pentagon freezes anti-ISIS battle in Syria amid Turkish offensive maybe they can fly the us forces back home for a lunch break too.. i am sure those few isis members that haven’t already been converted onto the moderate rebel usa payment system, won’t miss much…

Posted by: james | Mar 6 2018 3:40 utc | 92

@87 deb

There is no doubt that ‘something must be done’ to provide a lifeline to the people of the midwest aka ‘the rustbelt’. I’m not sure that resurrecting old programs is the best way forward; at least not solely. There must be more diversification if any resurrection hopes to endure. The whole thing is classic trumpian right move for the wrong reason.

This is the same logic that Obama used to defend neoliberalism: “those jobs aren’t coming back.” Oh yeah…Americans can’t make shoes and clothes anymore, huh? Too beneath us? Is that why the international intelligentsia rails against the ignorance of the fly-over states? Same twisted logic…same obfuscation. So which is it? Is America still a potentially diverse working force which needs a little help from combatting the hella-not-free-Chinese-protectionism and outright theft of intellectual property? Or are those days over with so America really doesn’t need market commodities like domestically-produced shoes, clothes, steel, etc.? Did I miss something, because a lot of people feel like since the iPAD was created, we don’t need a darn thing as long as Foxconn over in China is holding a gun to their workers temple and keeping up with demand. Or making a pair of Nikes for a dollar and selling it for $200.
My friend…anything would be an improvement.

Posted by: NemesisCalling | Mar 6 2018 6:31 utc | 94

Duck1 @86
“….Xi extended rule dictatorship, Assad extended rule dictatorship, Putin re-elected dictatorship….”
https://www.congressforkids.net/Constitution_threebranches.htm
The Three Branches of Government
“To avoid the risk of dictatorship or tyranny, the group divided the new government into three parts, or branches: the executive branch, the legislative branch, and the judicial branch . . . “
I would rather have the Chinese, Russian or Syrian “dictatorships.”
Both Russian and Syrian presidents were overwhelming elected by its citizen. President Xi may not be directly elected but…… the massive high speed train, solar, winds and hydraulic energy power, supercomputer, airports, Infrastructures are world class… since 1978 China “has lifted more than 800 million people out of poverty.” Nevertheless, they are still poor by western standards.

Posted by: OJS | Mar 6 2018 6:50 utc | 96

Posted by: NemesisCalling | Mar 6, 2018 1:31:42 AM | 92
Did you read what I wrote? The point I am trying to make is that while bringing steel back may work short term, some tough decisions have to be made. If the old manufacturing methods are resurrected, the industry will be inefficient and polluting; if more modern manufacturing techniques are adopted, the workforce required will be orders of magnitude smaller than what used to be.
And that is in spite of the reality of amerika in 2018, that the financiers will go for short term goals everytime, making it highly likely that investment will be kept as low as can be managed while profit taking will be ruthless with scant regard for any long-term benefit, for it is them not I who advocates neoliberalism, meaning their preference for free markets will end steel tariffs when Trump ends.
A sustainable economic model is needed for ordinary amerikans, but chucking a coupla taxes on metal won’t create that. Root and branch restructure of the amerikan economic system, the insane dependence on ’empire’ and the society which the economy is meant to service, is the only way to achieve that.
Trump only offers a slight re-alignment of deck chairs, primarily in 1st class.

Posted by: Debsisdead | Mar 6 2018 7:19 utc | 98

Re protection of manufacturing. Many countries are now talking about moving their economies the the tech/services sector. Many, unless they have no qualms about selling their arse in the sex industry (services sector) may have no aptitude that allows them to compete for jobs in these sectors.
My thought is, with basic manufacturing gone, all that is left is bankers and brothels servicing the tech industry. Well a little more complicated, but that’s the general picture…

Posted by: Peter AU 1 | Mar 6 2018 7:20 utc | 100