Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
January 25, 2018

"Who Lost Turkey?" - The U.S.-Kurdish Project In Syria Endangers NATO

Back in the 1950s the U.S. political sphere was poisoned by a groundless smear campaign against country-experts in the State Department  who were identified as those who lost China. If the Trump administration proceeds on its current course we may soon see similar accusations. The accused, those "who lost Turkey", will again be the ones who warned of the possibility and not the real culprits.

The Turkish attack on the Kurd held Syrian canton of Afrin (Efrin) is not progressing as fast the Turks had hoped. The infantry component of the operation are Turkish proxy forces in Syria. These Chechen, Uighur, Turkestanis and other Takfiris are cannon fodder in the operations, not a well integrated component of an army.


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The Kurds know their local mountainous territory, are well armed and willing to fight. They can holdout for a while. Politically they will still be the ones who will lose the most in the conflict. The above linked piece noted that the Kurdish YPG/PKK leaders had rejected the Syrian and Russian government offer that would have prevented the Turkish attack. The offer still exists but the conditions will become less favorable as longer the Kurds hold out.

Elijah Magnier just published more details on that offer and analyses the strategic situation:

[T]he US is observing the performance of the Turkish army with interest and wishes to see Erdogan humiliated, broken on the rocks of the Kurds in Afrin. Indeed, the US has delivered anti-tank weapons, already effectively used by the Kurds against the Turkish army (many tanks damaged during the attack on Afrin).
...
The US can’t understand that Ankara is not ready to see a rich and well-armed Kurdish “state” on its borders, disregarding the US’s tempting and generous offer [of a "safe zone" (see below)]. Actually, the US is offering a territory that not only does not belong to the Americans but is actually occupied by the US forces in north east Syria.

The US is one of the losers in this battle, regardless of the results, because Turkey will continue its operations until the defeat of the Kurds, either by military means or if Afrin returns to [Syrian] central government’s control.

I am not convinced that the above prediction will hold. There is still a possibility that Turkey might again change sides and (again) join the U.S. "regime change" efforts in Syria.

This depends on the winner of a conflict within the U.S. military where opposing forces are pulling for the Turkish and respectively the Kurdish side. Should the pro-Turkish side win, Erdogan can be offered a new deal and might be induced to again change sides from his current pro-Russian (pro-Damascus?) position back towards a pro-NATO/U.S. stand. (There is also a tiny chance that Turkey already has a secret back deal with the U.S. administration but I see no indication for it.)

From the very beginning of the conflict in Syria Turkey worked with the U.S., NATO, the Saudis and Qataris, against the Syrian government. It supported the Saudi and U.S. position of "regime change", let ten-thousands of terrorists pass through its borders and delivered ten-thousands of tons of weapons and supplies to the forces fighting the Syrian government. Finally Russia entered the picture, defeated the Takfiris, put harsh pressure on Turkey and offered new economic deals. At the same time the U.S. attempted "regime change" in Ankara and allied with the Kurdish YPG/PKK in Syria and Iraq.

Erdogan, though unwillingly, changed sides and now works with Russia (and Syria) to bring the war to a conclusion. "Regime change" in Damascus has become an unlikely scenario he no longer supports. At the same time he is still willing to invest money and forces to gain something for his failed investment in the war. Taking Afrin to later incorporate it into an enlarged Turkey is one of those plays. He is clearly still aiming for additional territory. The U.S. now offered him some in form of a safe zone in Syria:


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Ilhan tanir @WashingtonPoint - 7:50 PM - 24 Jan 2018
This map being discussed all day on Turkish TVs as Turkey’s planned security zone/safe zone on Syria border.
Reportedly OK’ed by Sec.Tillerson though nobody on the American side confirms it

If the U.S. indeed made the "safe zone" offer - Tillerson did not deny today to have made such - it found a rather cold response:

Washington’s proposal for the creation of a “security zone” along Turkey’s 911-kilometer border with Syria has received a cool reply from Ankara, with Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu urging the U.S. to first take steps to “re-build trust” between the two allies before discussing such military matters.
...
“The U.S. needs to stop delivering weapons to the YPG. It needs to push the YPG to withdrawing from Manbij if it wants to re-build confidence with Turkey … We have to see all these commitments fulfilled,” Çavuşoğlu said.

It is the U.S. supported founding of a Kurdish state-let in north-east Syria which is Ankara's most serious security concern. No "safe zone" will help if the U.S. military continues to build and supplies a Kurdish "border force" that can penetrate Turkey's south-eastern underbelly - now, tomorrow or in ten years. Unless the U.S. stops that project and retreats from the area Turkey will continue to push against it - if necessary by force.

The Turkish people support the fight against U.S. supported Kurds and are willing to pay the price for it. The Kurdish YPK leaders are delusional in their demands and overestimate their own political position. The U.S. can not have both, Turkey as an ally and a Kurdish proxy state-let. It has to decide.

Yesterday President Trump and Erdogan had a phonecall to discuss the situation. It did not help. The White House readout for the call includes some noticeably harsh language:

President Donald J. Trump spoke today with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey. President Trump relayed concerns that escalating violence in Afrin, Syria, risks undercutting our shared goals in Syria. He urged Turkey to deescalate, limit its military actions, and avoid civilian casualties and increases to displaced persons and refugees.
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President Trump also expressed concern about destructive and false rhetoric coming from Turkey, and about United States citizens and local employees detained under the prolonged State of Emergency in Turkey.

The Turkish side denied that such language and these issues were part of the talk:

The White House's written statement differs from the truth discussed between the Turkish and U.S. Presidents' phone conversation on Wednesday, according to Anadolu Agency sources.

Speaking on the condition of anonymity due to restrictions on talking to the media, the sources said President Donald Trump did not discuss any concerns 'of escalating violence in Afrin' during the phone call with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
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The sources also stressed that President Trump did not use the words "destructive and false rhetoric coming from Turkey."
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They also said that there was no discussion of the ongoing state of emergency in Turkey.

It is very unusual to dispute the content of such readouts. Is Turkey obfuscating here or did someone in the White House put harsher language into the readout than was actually used in the call?

Trump had in general good relations with Erdogan and the readout language does not sound like him. The Turkish side also added this:

"In an answer to President Erdogan's highlighting request from Washington to stop providing arms to the PYD/YPG terrorists in Syria within the scope of fighting against terrorism, President Trump said the United States are no longer providing PYD/YPG with weapons," the sources added.

Already in November the Turks had said that Trump promised to stop the delivery of weapons to the YPG forces in east-Syria. But the White House was evasive on the issue and the U.S. military Central Command has acted contrary to that promise. If the Magnier report is correct CentCom also delivered anti-tank missiles to the Kurds in Afrin.

I have for some time presumed that are different opinions in the White House and especially in the Pentagon with regards to Turkey and the Kurds. The realist-hawks and NATO proponents are on Turkey's side while the neoconservative "liberal" forces are on the Kurdish side. Yesterday the NYT noted the split:

The White House sent out a message aimed at mollifying Turkey’s president on Tuesday, suggesting that the United States was easing off its support for the Syrian Kurds.

That message was quickly contradicted by the Pentagon, which said it would continue to stand by the Kurds, even as Turkey invaded their stronghold in northwestern Syria.

The former director of the Council of Foreign Relations, Richard Haass, takes the pro-Kurdish position. Linking to the NYT piece above he says:

Richard N. Haass‏ @RichardHaass - 12:00 PM - 24 Jan 2018
Pentagon right; US should be working w Kurds in Syria for moral and strategic reasons alike. A break with Erdogan’s Turkey is inevitable, if not over this than over other differences. Time for DoD to come up with plan to substitute for Incirlik access.

It is not only the Incirlik air-base which is irreplaceable for NATO's southern command. Turkey also controls the access to the Black Sea and has thereby a say over potential NATO operations against southern Russia and Crimea.

In a Bloomberg oped former U.S. Supreme Commander of NATO Stavridis takes a pro-Turkish position:

At the moment, Washington is trying to sail a narrow passage between supporting its erstwhile Kurdish combat partners and not blowing up the relationship with Turkey. But the room for maneuver is closing and a choice is looming. What should the U.S. do?
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[W]e simply cannot afford to "lose" Turkey.
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The Turks have a strong and diversified economy, a young and growing population, and have stood alongside the U.S. for much of the post-World War II era. Their importance both regionally and globally will continue to grow in the 21st century. Yes, U.S. officials can and should criticize Turkish actions where they violate international law or human rights -- but in private, at least at this stage of the situation.
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[T]he overall U.S. strategic interest lies in keeping Turkey aligned with NATO and the trans-Atlantic community. It would be a geopolitical mistake of near-epic proportions to see Turkey drift out of that orbit and end up aligned with Russia and Iran in the Levant.

It is unclear where in the Trump administration the split between pro-Kurdish and pro-Turkish positions actually is. (Or is it all around chaos?) On which side, for example, is Secretary of Defense Mattis and on which side is the National Security Advisor McMaster? This clip from the NYT piece above lets one assume that they pull in opposite directions:

For its part, the White House disavowed a plan by the American military to create a Kurdish-led force in northeastern Syria, which Turkey has vehemently opposed.
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That plan, a senior administration official said Tuesday, originated with midlevel military planners in the field, and was never seriously debated, or even formally introduced, at senior levels in the White House or the National Security Council.
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But the Pentagon issued its own statement on Tuesday standing by its decision to create the Kurdish-led force.

Discussing NATO relations with Turkey, several western "experts" agree that the current situation damages NATO but not one of them expects that Turkey will leave the alliance:

NATO needs Turkey and cannot afford to push it further into Russia’s arms. Erdoğan also needs NATO. He has overplayed his hand in Syria and in his struggle with the Kurds, and is isolated in the EU. His relationship with Moscow is problematic and he does not want to face Putin without NATO membership. This is an alliance that remains based on real strategic interests and that will continue long after Erdoğan is gone.

Maybe. I am not so sure.

The last thing the EU now wants or needs is Turkish membership. The U.S. instigated a coup against Erdogan and its Kurdish project is threatening Turkey's strategic interest. Trump's continued push to take Jerusalem "off the table" in Israeli-Palestinian negotiations is an insult to all Muslims. An increasingly Islamic Turkey will not accept that. Turkey's natural gas supplies depend on Russia and Iran. Russia builds nuclear power stations in Turkey and will deliver air defense systems that can defend against U.S. attacks. Russia, Iran, Central Asia and beyond that China are markets for Turkish products.

Putting myself into Erdogan's shoes I would be very tempted to leave NATO and join an alliance with Russia, China and Iran. Unless the U.S. changes course and stops fooling around with the Kurds Turkey will continue to disentangle itself from the old alliance. The Turkish army has so far prevented a break with NATO but even staunch anti-Erdogan officers are now on his side.

If the U.S. makes a real offer to Turkey and adopts a new position it might be able to turn Turkey around and to put it back into its NATO fold. Is the Trump White House capable of defying the pro-Israel/pro-Kurdish voices and move back to that realist view?

If it can not do that the real answer to the question "Who lost Turkey?" will be obvious.

Posted by b on January 25, 2018 at 18:11 UTC | Permalink

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Since the 1920s, the street's name has been metonymous with the American advertising industry. Therefore, the term "Madison Avenue" refers specifically to the agencies, and methodology of advertising.

Posted by: james | Jan 28 2018 3:54 utc | 201

metonymous.
Had to look that one up. Hollyweed. Like 40,000 yazidies trapped on a hill and the isis snuff movies that took us (Au) into the attack on SAA that were defending the population of Deir Ezzor from the takfiri's.

Posted by: Peter AU 1 | Jan 28 2018 4:34 utc | 202

An important mistake in the piece. Erdogan is pro-IS, he relied on the EU &US to keep him in power, else he would have been removed by the military a long time ago. The Turkish military is anti-US since the 90’s, that’s the reason the US put the Islamists in power, who had always been reliable pro-US. It’s the military who got rid of Davutoglu and changed the course in Syria. Left alone the AKP would ally with US & Kurds, but they are unable to now.

Posted by: Christina | Jan 28 2018 4:54 utc | 203

Re: Posted by: likklemore | Jan 26, 2018 9:02:05 PM | 134

The Saudis would have to be complete idiots to list Aramco in New York and/or London.

Have they not seen what happened to Western friendly Saddam or Muammar???

Lol. Seriously.

Despite that, I'm not sure if they are idiots or not.

Posted by: Julian | Jan 28 2018 5:59 utc | 204

Posted by: ConfusedPundit | Jan 27, 2018 7:21:25 PM | 194

„Correct. But the reason is that the Gulen organisation is a secretive one. Nobody knew who was a Gulenist. 1 Gulenist knew only 3 other Gulenists.“
That does not give the whole picture. The Gülen movement is older than the AKP. Before the neoliberal AKP policy was successful in Turkey the most popular jobs were those of officials. Qualification was/is not important. One needs connections (torpil) to get a job. This movement has been one of the most important networks for this purpose.
Your father is poor. You study far removed from your town. Where do you stay if you have no money for an apartment? In a dormitory of this network. Don't they try to indoctrinate you? You just laugh. Rent is cheap but you have to do 5 times per day gymnastics (prayer)... Then you work 20 years somewhere as a teacher, have forgotten this Gülen thing since long. But now they find your name on the list of people who were in this dormitory 20 years before. Or somebody makes a denunciation about it. Immediately, without any formal trial, you are dismissed as a teacher. This secrecy they applied for sure for important key positions in the police apparatus. But at the same time it was a popular easily visible movement, a giant job machine and well embodied in the AKP everywhere. Till the split came. The Gülen movement is very rich. So they did not like corruption. They found it unislamic. Opposite to the reliigious inpsiration of Erdogan, Hayrettin Karaman. Corruption is ok, as long as only we get the prey.
But all this does not determine the actions of the (Erdogan-) AKP. The guy must stay in power. This is the ultimate priority. If necessary he also could drift a bit away from Islamism towards neutral nationalism. In case he looses power he is finished. Jail, they will take all the money from him and his family. Therefore he will just do what keeps him in power.

Posted by: Hausmeister | Jan 28 2018 10:00 utc | 205

Dear Hausmeister,

Precisely. You have a far better, more in depth understanding of the situation in Turkey than most of the international sources.

AKP and Erdogan's abuse of power, their wrong doings are justified in the minds and hearts of the Turkish people on these grounds (I think):

Corruption = We are taking back what was stolen from us before.
Torpil = The elite practice nepotism too.
Qualification issue = They taught us how to clean the toilets where as the foreign schools (American, German, French etc.) colonial outposts gave the best education to their pupils, to potential compradors. We can't beat them at the moment. The Gulenists cheated in exams, the Gulenist doctor gave clearance to those candidates with poor eyesight -> so they became pilots. And so on.
Elections: AKP won every election. Minor tweaks at the latest referendum is justified. CHP does the same. They get no vote, they have no members in Van, Diyarbakir etc. but somehow the number of delegates from those cities are 4-5 times more than the CHP stronghold of (with real voters and party members) say, Trace. Kemalist party is controlled by the deceptive enemy. The current opposition leader lost 8 (15 inclusive of referenda etc.) elections yet he is still enjoying his seat. Dictator!
Erdogan is not democratic: Neither is the opposition.
Erdogan is Sunni: CHP favors Alevis only.
Erdogan jails people: So did the CHP until now.
Erdogan did the coup: No but there were CHP coups in the past and they are real. They also hanged PM Menderes.

The list goes on. So I don't think AKP or Erdogan will have any trouble winning the next election. Will he lose his power? The Turkish public opinion will have to be convinced that the challenger has similar offerings. Aksener? She is regarded as a Gulenist. CHP leader? He is in trouble.
So what will happen? There is no contender in sight. Well, let's oust Erdogan in 2019 first, the opposition block thinks they can win 60% of the votes, and then think about it later. Well, there was a minor tweaking after the refendum, Erdogan, MHP, Deep State, patriots etc. are ready for a major tweak. This is what they are whispering in the streets.

Posted by: ConfusedPundit | Jan 28 2018 12:57 utc | 206

207 you seem to be whistling in the dark

AKP obviously needs an alliance with - a weakened - MHP

Seems to me from very far that Erdogan merging AKP with MHP could result in an AKP split.

Or AKP supporters refusing to vote in protest.

Posted by: somebody | Jan 28 2018 14:04 utc | 207

With the crushing of the attempted coup the only way for Erdogan to lose power is for Turkey to lose in a war. The only neighbours of Turkey that are theoretically capable of doing that are Russia, Iran and Greece.

A few weeks ago the leader of the opposition party CHP accused Erdogan publicly as a traitor who "gifted 18 islands" to Greece. Of course these islands have always been Greek since the treaty of Lausanne in 1923 but i have a feeling that some powers want to use the CHP to push for an Greek-Turkish war in order to get rid of Erdogan.

Posted by: redrooster | Jan 28 2018 14:07 utc | 208

209

Nah, just CHP trying to split nationalist supporters of MHP from AKP.

Nice quote in the link in post 208

This further strengthens the idea that a serious convergence is underway between the conservative AK Parti, with Islamic roots, and the nationalist MHP, which used to be criticized by Erdoğan and AK Parti officials as a party of “ethnicity-focused racists.”

Posted by: somebody | Jan 28 2018 14:26 utc | 209

@somebody

"Seems to me from very far that Erdogan merging AKP with MHP could result in an AKP split."

So it may seem to you perhaps thanks to your source in that link? Hurriyet (Or Freedom in English, but whose freedom? The Turks'? An oxymoron?) It is considered to be the voice of the Globalists' in Turkey, owned by the local elite, partially financed by the German media group Axel Springer.

http://www.axelspringer.de/en/artikel/The-Essentials_40219.html

We stand up for freedom, the rule of law, democracy and a united Europe.
We support the Jewish people and the right of existence of the State of Israel.
We demonstrate solidarity with the free values of the United States of America.
We uphold the principles of a free market economy and its social responsibility.
We reject political and religious extremism.

So, from my angle, let's presume I'm a moderator, I think there are discrepancies between what the elite say and what the Turks 'actually' think.

1) AKP = National View movement

2) MHP = Led by a MIT personnel on a suicide mission, who supported AKP and lost votes without blinking an eye but strangely enough neither the leader nor his party seem to be worried about it. For an outsider loss of votes = failure. For a local here: One MHP public announcement = the weight of a Nuclear Bomb where as the weight of millions of opposition voters all together equals to the lightest element on earth even Mr. MacGyver has not yet discovered.

3) Who governs the country and who owns the Turkish State are different things. The latter is in jeopardy? The 'Deep State' steps in. And the current deep state is believed to be Turkish. It was globalist, MIT was on the U.S. payroll, the army was led by a group called Merkava (that's what people refer to them in the street) for example the leader of the last coup of 1980, general Kenan Evren (Canaan Universe in English) was considered to be one of their members. Oh, really? Well, I don't know, this is what people talk about. But mostly, the people, both sides, keep their cards close to their chests for the upcoming very critical elections of 2019. IMHO.

So, I guess if you want to get rid of Erdogan you need a war? A civil war? Assassinations?
For the latter there is an answer on Turkish TVs. Noboody talks about these read-my-lips messages. To me they appear too often and they are very important. More important than anything talked about here and elsewhere. Obviously some guys are expecting moves from their opponents. This is what they say: "Israelis hunted down Nazi officers and Palestinians all over the world. Asala killed 40 Turkish diplomats. We went after the Asala leaders and killed them and the case was closed" So, this bravado talk may not mean much to you but here it has more weight for me than any analysis I come across. Erdogan threatens the U.S. or EU means rubbish for me. Politics, duh. I know this culture. To me the real threat talk is the other one above. To me it is a signal that some guys behind the doors here and behind the doors on the enemy side are way ahead of the level of conflict we observe. I think it is a make it or break it point. Am I crazy? Am I talking nonsense? I don't know! We'll see. But such talks on telly make me more nervous than anyhthing else.

Meanwhile the CIA calls YPG a terrorist organisation. The U.S. troops left Tal Abyad. The weather was fine today and the Turks have captured Bursaya Mountain overlooking Afrin town center. Turks and the Greeks had a little spit fight near the Aegean islands. Erdogan is on a victory tour visiting cities and he seems to be getting a lot of support.

Posted by: ConfusedPundit | Jan 28 2018 16:38 utc | 210

Posted by: ConfusedPundit | Jan 28, 2018 11:38:13 AM | 211

"The weather was fine today and the Turks have captured Bursaya Mountain overlooking Afrin town center."

You mean Turkish supported Syrian rebels? They are used to giving all kinds of success reports. It won't be the last time this mountain seems to switch hands.

The decision to fight YPG seems to suit everyone except the US and the Kurds.

“The [moderate] rebels previously didn’t establish themselves as useful proxies for other internationals,” said Sam Heller at the Century Foundation thinktank. “As a result, they were driven to the margins.”

Posted by: somebody | Jan 28 2018 17:25 utc | 211

The use of the term "terrorist" in these debates on all sides has now reached the moment of being just ridiculous. All included parties have used methods, now, in the near and distant past, that are to be classified as terroristic. Starting with the fights of the new Atatürk republic against heretics and Kurds. Now Turkey is a country that openly works with terrorists, even with Al Quaida. So its anti-Kurdish language is just bullshit. One should not forget that the only indisputedly accepted Sarin event happened in the responsibility of Turkey. And for any YPG attack against Turkey there is no acceptable proof until now. No wonder, as it makes no sense for the YPG. That Isis people moved freely over the borders under Turkeys surveillance is undisputed in the meantime as well. So who is the agressor there?
@ ConfusedPundit: your argument yesterday that at the beginning Erdogan was not willing to attack Syria and just wanted to prevent being pushed from power might be true. But neither you nor I know this for sure. At least the ideology of Erdogan would make this agression legitimate. At the end of the day he aims for an islamistic dictatorship, where religious rules and morals of a Hanefi majority would be the constitution that works in everydays life. Independent of how disappointed a part (!) of the Turks are over Europe such a country cannot be a part of Europe, idiotic idea. My guess is that even now a majority of Turks would prefer to live in a European style country. The general attitude that you displayed here (thanks a lot for your contributions!) we know from the pre-1989 period in Eastern Europe. Really the same!

Posted by: Hausmeister | Jan 28 2018 17:54 utc | 212

@somebody

The usual state of the world. Wars. We kill each other. Boring.

Well, what can I do.

I prefer to watch Tarantino, Jackie Chan, Vikings, Bruce Lee, van Damme, Rambo, Seagal.

However I'm in a war zone. I'm being showered with conflict news.

Bursaya won't change hands anytime soon. There is now a Turkish flag on top of the mountain.
So far, 7 Turkish soldiers were killed as opposed to 557 PKK militants or heros or Kurds or freedom fighters or whatsoever. Unless the PKK (they call themselves Guerilla) have the courage like the Vietnamese had during their Tet Offensive against the U.S. forces, the Bursaya Mountain will remain a Turkish territory.

Posted by: ConfusedPundit | Jan 28 2018 17:56 utc | 213

@206 - hausmeister .. i see it as you have described it as well.. thanks for articulating that..

@209 redrooster.. i am not sure you are reading that right.. here is article 12 of the treat of lausanne..

"ARTICLE 12.

The decision taken on the 13th February, 1914, by the Conference of London, in virtue of Articles 5 of the Treaty of London of the 17th-30th May, 1913, and 15 of the Treaty of Athens of the 1st-14th November, 1913, which decision was communicated to the Greek Government on the 13th February, 1914, regarding the sovereignty of Greece over the islands of the Eastern Mediterranean, other than the islands of Imbros, Tenedos and Rabbit Islands, particularly the islands of Lemnos, Samothrace, Mytilene, Chios, Samos and Nikaria, is confirmed, subject to the provisions of the present Treaty respecting the islands placed under the sovereignty of Italy which form the subject of Article 15.

Except where a provision to the contrary is contained in the present Treaty, the islands situated at less than three miles from the Asiatic coast remain under Turkish sovereignty."

it would seem many of those island were placed under the sovereignty of italy! apparently it was in 1947 that italy handed them over to greece.. not sure exactly how that works, but it looks more complicated then a quick read would allow..

Posted by: james | Jan 28 2018 18:00 utc | 214

214 First casualty in a war is truth.

Sounds like Turkey is already looking for someone to blame as things don't go well.

The U.S. army, which is capable of spotting the movements of Turkey’s fighter jets and drones through the radars that are part of the NATO network, shares possible targets with PKK/PYD terrorists

...

The U.S. army, which is capable of spotting the movements of Turkey’s fighter jets and drones through the radars that are part of the NATO network, shares possible targets with PKK/PYD terrorists.

PKK/PYD terrorists then alter their positions in accordance with the intel they receive.

The radar, which is capable of spotting warplanes, drones and even missiles targeting Afrin, is located in the İskenderun town of Arsuz in Turkey’s Hatay province and was established in 2004 on the summit of Mount Amanos as part of the NATO Kisecik Radar Base, which the U.S. uses to its benefit.

...

This from a pro Erdogan paper. Next step - Turkey leaves NATO and closes US bases?

Posted by: somebody | Jan 28 2018 18:05 utc | 215

@215 james

You are partly correct. All the islands with the exception of Imvros, Tenedos and the socalled Rabbit Islands were given by the treaty of Lausanne in 1923 to Greece and Italy. After Italy lost in WW2 the islands of the Dodecanese passed onto Greece with the Paris treaty of 1947.

For anybody interested the treaties of Lausanne 1923 and Paris 1947 are online for anybody to read.

That being said the main point of the argument is the following:

1.)Turkey under Erdogan is losing its vassal status and that makes the US nervous.

2.)After crushing the attempted coup, the absolutely only way in which Erdogan could still in theory lose his power is if Turkey loses a war.

3.)The only neighbouring countries that are theoretically able to defeat defeat Turkey in a war are Russia, Iran and Greece. All the other neighbours of Turkey are far too weak to even consider for such a task.

4.)From the perspective of the US if Greece loses territory to Turkey or Turkey loses territory to Greece is irrelevant because in the end it remains NATO territory.

5.)The opposition parties to Erdogan in Turkey, contrary to what one might have expected, seem more "radical" than Erdogan himself. Attacking Erdogan with accusations of treason and warmongering against Greece.

So what do you make of this? I find it quite believable that the West in order to get rid of Erdogan would risk a Greek-Turkish war.

Posted by: redrooster | Jan 28 2018 18:29 utc | 216

Syrias Kurds Say Will Not Join Sochi Peace Talks

On Saturday, Syria’s main opposition group, the Syrian Negotiation Commission, also said would not attend the negations.

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Jan 28 2018 19:13 utc | 217

214 confusedpundit

Yeni Safak - Erdogan - already looks for excuses

PKK/PYD in Afrin receive instantaneous intel from US

The U.S. army, which is capable of spotting the movements of Turkey’s fighter jets and drones through the radars that are part of the NATO network, shares possible targets with PKK/PYD terrorists

Posted by: somebody | Jan 28 2018 19:26 utc | 218

@216 redrooster... on a personal note - i have been to 4 of the islands under discussion - Mytilene, Chios, Samos and Nikaria, although with mytilene, it was only a stop over.. my wife and i spent a week or chios, 3 days on samos and a week on ikaria.. we loved our time their.. i recall while on chios going to a village that was on the edge of a cliff.. apparently in the history of this place, it was a place where the greeks threw themselves over the cliff, as opposed to being taken as prisoners by the turks...i believe this was in the 1800's - 1822? at some point when greece was a part of the ottoman empire.. we loved visiting these islands, chios and ikaria in particular..

i am not sure what to make of all this.. i have been following this topic fairly closely since coming back from turkey in 2012.. there used to be some media outlets that were shut down.. i forget the proper spelling of one of the main ones - curriyet perhaps? this was the outlet that was trying to expose erdogans sending weapons to syria.. i don't know that the opposition parties are more radical then erdogan... it would seem the head of the chp - Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu - is a very ordinary and likeable guy.. he is the one that did the long walk in the past year... i guess i have been following turkey news since i came back from turkey and my impression is the opposition, while regarding chastised by erdogan - seem to be quite ordinary and normal.. erdogan in all his accusations has come across to me as not as normal, but more argumentative and combative...

it is an interesting theory you are suggesting.. i haven't given it very much thought, but thanks for bringing it up in this different light... there is a story from the mainstream turkish paper to go with it today as well -
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkey-warns-greek-minister-off-aegean-islets-126393

@217 jr - no surprise there... still following their puppetmasters advice i suppose..

Posted by: james | Jan 28 2018 19:59 utc | 219

or - on....

regarding - regularly...

sorry for the typos and confusion..

Posted by: james | Jan 28 2018 20:01 utc | 220

Dear James (220),

I'd take that with a pinch of salt if I were you!

"it would seem the head of the chp - Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu - is a very ordinary and likeable guy.."

Posted by: ConfusedPundit | Jan 28 2018 21:45 utc | 221

somebody (219)

Nothing to do with Erdogan.

Russian sources. You don't want them to incite Turks for further pressure on the US?
Would they ever miss the opportunity? LOL.

The US and PKK may start exchanging fires after successful completion of opAfrin by TAF. Expect small skirmishes. I don't know how Americans see the situ from their country but all I can tell from here is that the govt. is not telling them the truth!

The U.S. congress will bring up the issue: Why are we supporting the PKK?
Right after the Nov 2018 elections.

The Americans will pack up leave the Afro-Eurasia region eventually.
Mark my words. I'm with the ordinary U.S. people. Whoever is sucking their blood is also sucking my blood.

Posted by: ConfusedPundit | Jan 28 2018 22:09 utc | 222

@ 222 confusedpundit... okay - thanks... that is just my impression! as an outsider it is hard for me to know either way...

Posted by: james | Jan 28 2018 22:15 utc | 223

@ ConfusedPundit | Jan 28, 2018 4:45:02 PM | 222
"I'd take that with a pinch of salt if I were you!
"it would seem the head of the chp - Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu - is a very ordinary and likeable guy.."
- The advice is wise. They (Erdogan, Kilicaroglu, Bahceli, Aksener) are all in the same boat. Who wants change cannot vote for one of those.
Again: all this palaver about PKK=terrorist is total BS, taking into account that the Turkish deep state, that ISIL, Al-Quaida are all terrorists as well. Therefore a political solution would depend to bargain the situation nevertheless, or fight it down to the end. That the US fight and support IS at the same time is nothing unusual and not new.
The trouble for the Turks: they cannot dare to discuss these matters in a free, open style. They are jailed then. Or labelled as Gülenists or with some other funny label. This is a requirement of Erdogan to go on with this extreme polarization. Without it he cannot hope to keep the support of his core voters. Again: until now we wait for a non-partisan proven example of any attack of the YPG against Turkey.

Posted by: Hausmeister | Jan 29 2018 10:08 utc | 224

@225 Hausmeister

1. "Again: all this palaver about PKK=terrorist is total BS,"

Not so fast. It might be BS to you but officialy the PKK is labeled as a terrorist organization in Turkey, USA, EU and a number of Middle Eastern countries, including if i'm not mistaken Syria itself.

The reason why this attitude against the PKK among the western population (not official government yet) seems to have changed is because the cold war is over. During the cold war it served a very important function for the Soviet Union, in order to weaken the NATO vassal Turkey.

As the Soviet Union is no more, the cold war is over and Turkey loses its vassal status the PKK is viewed less and less as a threat for the US alliance and more as an internal problem of Turkey.

2. "This is a requirement of Erdogan to go on with this extreme polarization. Without it he cannot hope to keep the support of his core voters."

You are making two presumptions here. First you presume that the democratic process in Turkey is not rigged and secondly that the opposition parties in Turkey disagree with Erdogan on the matter of the Kurds.

Posted by: redrooster | Jan 29 2018 13:11 utc | 225

@ redrooster | Jan 29, 2018 8:11:19 AM | 226
What I intended to say is: all parties in these conflicts are to be labelled as terrorists if one just looks to the facts. I am tired of constantly hearing „terrorist“ as an excuse for not starting to get a political solution of this conflict done.
Of course the democratic process is rigged. Not new. Media are not free. Within political parties there is no open, free debate. Parties are tools of their leaderships, their ressource. For such a debate the people should have an unbiased view of their history. They don't. Many people within the AKP and the CHP disagree with Erdogan about the TKurds but do not dare to mention this in the public. The CHP has a fraction as nationalistic as the MHP: The only alternative is the HDP. But this party is ignored by the media and rejected by the other parties, resp. their leaderships. For good reasons.
"It might be BS to you but officialy the PKK is labeled as a terrorist organization in Turkey, USA, EU and a number of Middle Eastern countries, including if i'm not mistaken Syria itself.“
Yes, these institutions have the power to design the narrative they want to tell. That's all about.If you insist on facts first.

Posted by: Hausmeister | Jan 29 2018 14:22 utc | 226

Hausmeister

"- The advice is wise."

And it comes from a man who is a pre-Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu (aka KK in Turkey) era CHP supporter! Tragic! Me, my family, my grandparents, my relatives, my friends are all CHP voters. I was indoctrinated with Ataturk philosophy at public school. KK's party's founder.

Erdogan is shrewd. There is consensus, democracy, in his party. AKP is a socialist party, a revolutionary movement.
Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu is a crook, a conman. His party is full of fascists and rich elitists.
He lies through his teeth but the clean likeable appearance hides it. He has landed on his seat because the Gulenists exposed a video of the former leader who then had to resign. KK is a project.

I live in a CHP constituency. There is corruption here too.
The difference between AKP and CHP is that, say, for example, you want a building permission, the AKP guys tell you how much donation they need and that's it. Whereas the CHP guys have a price too but after they get their money they ask for more and more and more until you get your permission and they'll ask for more and more after they give it to you, if they ever.

KK did a long walk, demanding JUSTICE (Germans organised the event) but he should start off with bringing justice to his party first. Thief.

Kemal has changed party regulations.
In CHP, 350 voters from PKK constituencies = 1 delegate.
37000 voters from Ataturkist regions = 1 delegate.
So party membership doesn't really count.

So Kemal is a Dictator. Delegates decide who heads the party, not the members.
He has gobbled up the seat like a pusher just before a police raid. A truly likeable alternative is Umit Kocasakal. KK says anyone can be a contender for his place. In actual fact, you can run for the party leadership provided that you get votes from the separatist PKK/HDP delegates. Mr. UK has publicly announced that he is an Ataturkist (and he really is) whereas KK also declared publicly that the CHP is no longer an Ataturkist party. CHP is under occupation by an ordinary, democratic, likeable guy.

For Erdogan the FSA defend their homeland and the PKK-YPG are the bad guys. Erdogan wants to send 3.5 million Syrian refugees who live in Turkey to their own country.
For KK the YPG defend their homeland and the FSA = ISIS, AQ. Kurdistan should be established first and more Kurds should come the region before the refugees in Turkey.

Erdogan is a dictator? So is KK. What about the HDP? They won't let a Turk head the party. But Turks even had a Kurdish president. KK doesn't call himself a Turk either. MHP? Nationalists. Fascists? Well, yes.

So under all these circumstances, we can't get rid of all these guys and have peace any time soon!

The PKK/YPG are a Narco-Terror group.

The U.S.A. knows this (The EU knows it better! wink wink!)

The PKK/YPG are mercenaries, contract killers, they look after the oil and water sources on behalf of the US-EU invaders. Somebody wants a Greater Israel, somebody wants pipelines going through Israel, the Russians want their route.

Everybody can see this picture as it's a fact, it's a photo not a picasso painting. The U.S., The EU, The Russians, the Chinese, the globalists, the capitalists, weapons manufacturers, energy companies. This is their selfie.

The Turks are worried about their homeland. So are the Iranians. The Kurds want their homeland.

We have to establish why we have a problem here and what's going to happen next.
The rest is irrelevant. The rest is propaganda. The rest is a Magritte painting from a USra-EU art gallery: Ceci n'est pas une pomme.

Well sorry but it is an apple!

Posted by: ConfusedPundit | Jan 29 2018 15:00 utc | 227

@ ConfusedPundit | Jan 29, 2018 10:00:21 AM | 228
Thanks! Yes, we are all quite baffled.No ideal recipe available.
The description of the CHP I buy. That of the AKP I do not buy. Definitely not. May be we refer to different regions. Friends of mine in the West support Kurdish people in the Southeast since long with social, not political aid, and have close relations with them. What they report does not fit at all to how you describe it. They insist that there is vivid intra-party democracy in the HDP and they know these people since years. That the PKK is engaged with drugs is publicly known. But they are small fry against the Turkish deep state, at lest till recently. About Susurluk people know. And you know about the Kurdish tribal chief that was with them there. The biggest drug fry are rightist Kurds, not the PKK, under state protection.
So the whole situation is messed up a lot. A good start would be reason - and an independent law system with some stamina and free media. But that is unfortunately impossible. Trying to be straight I have to admit that in the Western countries (we have this FakeNews thing since long, at least since Reagan: media act as narrative salesmen) it is not that much better.

Posted by: Hausmeister | Jan 29 2018 15:32 utc | 228

It’s not an apple, it’s a representation of an apple.

Would Magritte write “Ceci n’est pas une democratie.” over your depiction of Erdogan’s Turkey?

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Jan 29 2018 15:57 utc | 229

interesting comments @225- 230.. thanks guys... it seems like there is a lot of grey areas and it's not so black and white... the conversation is interesting, none the less!

Posted by: james | Jan 29 2018 17:47 utc | 230

Hausmeister

Erdogan is a powerful figure, but if you want, you can challenge him, party regulations dictate you don't need permission from the delegates. Of course, his followers would give you really hard times during your ascension to power. I think not just because his opponents, both local and international, are making terrible mistakes but also because of the confidence he gets from the backing of his followers which let him practice some undemocratic policies.

KK is a useless guy and yet he made it sure that you can't even challenge him. Officially, it's written in the CHP party regulations, impossible. I wouldn't ask him to tend my shoeshine box while I go to the toilet. He'd give it to the PKK kids and then he'd tell me to get their permission in writing if I wanted my livelihood back. I'd weep buckets.

Turkey has come a long way from the days of Alan Parker's Midnight Express.
There used to be a mistreatment of the PKK supporters, extrajudicial killings, kidnapppings, arrests. The Turks blame the 1980 coup leaders.

Present Turkey is pretty democratic and peaceful. I think the PKK made a mistake, they were too impatient (their handlers had a timetable and were running out of time?)

I think the problem is that the PKK cannot handle the fast progress Turks made.

Instead they cry wolf:

Turkish army is killing civillians
Turks are using napalm
Turks are using chemical weapons
Turkish army is destroying ancient sites
(this one was superb!) We have surrounded a Turkish fighter jet in Afrin skies, he is stuck for hours, he's going to crash soon
Afrin is a Kurdish city. Manbij is a Kurdish city.

LOL!

It won't work.

I don't know what they are talking about abroad. Something in that line, like the ones above?
There are international laws. Sit down, they were given the chance before, and let's talk about your desire for independence. But instead, they killed thousands of innocent people.

Soon, they will be left alone. They'll be at the mercy of the Turks, Arabs and Persians.
Only the Turks will show them mercy despite having suffered most from the cheeky PKK savagery.

Time is running for them.

"US won't withdraw troops from YPG-held Manbij, top commander says" (Centcom's Votel)
(Hey PKK boys, keep fighting until we pack up and leave, in regional speak)

Even Mr. Bernard Levy and his colleagues' project girl, the general singer Helly Luv won't be able to save them.

https://s13.postimg.org/fi6a1e4mf/helly.jpg

Posted by: ConfusedPundit | Jan 29 2018 17:56 utc | 231

Dear Jackrabbit,

There in no such thing as 'ERDOGAN'. That word is part of a propaganda campaign in the West.

In reality, it is Turks (vast majority), AKP, MHP, CHP, fringe parties, their politicians and the grassroots. 80 million people. Erdogan is not alone! AKP conducts virtually daily surveys to gauge public opinion. That is democracy. What Erdogan says is what people think. Either blame the Turks as a whole or carry on with demonising one person but that won't get you anywhere.

Magritte's works are displayed abundantly in the West, but do people wake up? No.

Posted by: ConfusedPundit | Jan 29 2018 18:50 utc | 232

@ ConfusedPundit | Jan 29, 2018 1:50:14 PM | 233

Huh, now you definitely dive too deep into your own wishful thinking. My guess. ok: „Turkey has come a long way from the days of Alan Parker's Midnight Express.“
Yes. True, but as a result of the work of all Turks, not just the AKP. Not to forget the influence of the millions of Turks that work abroad and sometimes send signals home! But let me try to paint the picture a bit closer at the daily life.

A Caesarean operation when giving birth is not forbidden by law in Turkey. But as a poor or middle class women you will not get it. Why? Erdogan has said it is unislamic. Result? A doctor who would dare to do it will be shifted to a small township in Sibiria soon, so to say.

To serve alcohol when in Istanbul a vernissage is done in an art gallery is not forbidden. But a senior guy comes from the neighbourhood and tell you: I do not want to see it once more. It is unislamic! You tell him you do not mind, it's not his case. At the next vernissage you serve again alcohol. After midnight some people destroy your shops window with stones. Good for you that you photograph 2 of them. You visit the police. They say: to destroy your window is clearly forbidden. But before you make a formal complaint the police tells you: please think twice whether you really want to offend the sanely feelings of the people. - Or: police comes to your house and wants to enter your flat. Your ask them for the authorization written by a judge. They are shocked, the first time such a thing happens to them. So you talk to them outside your flat. The topic has nothing to do with you. There are rumors that in this house there is a couple that lives there - but imagine: they are not married? You ask them: are you sreious? This is not forbidden. How can you dare to waste the taxpayers money with outlawed behaviour? They let you know you better do not insult the police.

These things are not invented, both from 2017. This is daily reality and it is under the radar of most media. Why? Erdogan is more clever than his Egyptian muslim brother friends who could not hold the water and wanted to make their success irreversible. No, the AKP has no majority, for sure not. If you like to stop to look to Europe it is up to you. But to accept such a country is kind of unthinkable. The interpretation of Hayrettin Karaman, the people must live under the rules of the majority, is suitable for some kind of dictatorship but blocks each stop towards the West. Well, then let us have only business. Nothing wrong with it.

But there is one question that I put several times without getting any answer: where is one documented and checked example of any YPG attack on Turkish soil? No, there is none? Then things are easy: Kobane and Afrin are in Syria. Just get out, not your business. And do not claim the fate of refugees for it. Turkey, plus the West, had started an illegal regime change trial and supported terrorists there. Take the responsibility for the refugees together with your partners, do not blame that to others.

Posted by: Hausmeister | Jan 29 2018 19:50 utc | 233

ConfusedPundit

Summarizing your last comment: Ein Volk, ein Reich, ein Fuehrer.

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Jan 29 2018 20:52 utc | 234

Dear Hausmeister

There are worse cases. There is too much tax on alcoholic beverages. So people decided to make their own drinks out of ethyl alcohol. The government now wants producers to add denatonium benzoate, a very bitter ingredient, into their ethyl alcohol. The people are now learing to distill their own alcohol. It's an endless process. "You can't stop people, once they start. You can't stop people, once they start creating." London Fields - MA

But meanwhile, if the Turks stand their ground, the citizens in the US-EU won't stop either. Expect social unrest.

Erdogan is an Islamist? Well, with his policy he puts off potential believers at the same time. It's no big deal for the people here.

The Irish women got on a ship to have abortions. In Germany, Berlin is at loggerheads with Ankara but Bavarians (Putin shook hands with their president but not with Merkel) don't think the same as the Berliners. It took the Dutch 7 months to form a coalition govt. and the Germans have only just started the talks (4 months after the elections). I mean, the Turks are the underdogs. It was a very bad idea on globalist controlled US-EU groups to take on the Turks and to ally with the YPG terrorists (YPG is a terrorist organisation on CIA's factbook now). Because we now have SDF. What's next title, the AA, The Automobile Association? This policy has backfired and it will have repercussions all over the western hemisphere. Turks risk explusion from NATO. Empty threat. Bluffing. Turks will get out of the NATO. You can't stop people once they start complaining. The Americans will ask their govt a lot of questions. So will the Europeans.

But I don't think the Turks should take the West solely responsible for their predicements. They didn't take precautions against earthquakes. They shouldn't have accepted the first Marshall aid, powdered milk, from the U.S. (A gift from the American people to the Turkish Nation) It wasn't a gift, it was beads in exhange for Turkish gold.

Any YPG (PKK) attack on Turkish soil? 700 from Afrin alone in 1 year. YPG + Daesh. Because the Daesh guys work with the YPG (PKK) guys in Afrin to cross into Turkey as well as in other parts of Syria. There were protestors with YPG flags in Suleymaniyah today. Several targets were hit in Manbij, Tal Abyad. YPG (PKK) has now moved from Qandil to Sincar and has a base there, Northeast of 'Rojova', a NATO, Coalition for Occupation, controlled region. There are countless examples.

If the YPG is not PKK then FSA is not ISIS or AQ either. They are with TAF fighting against the NATO trained terrorists. You can't say YPG is not PKK but FSA is AQ+ISID. That's not fair. You can't have it all! Turks think there is a game of Civilization going on here. You got too close to Turkish territory. The Americans lied through and through. Once again there nothing but lies on US part. The US had promised they would take the arms back they didn't. The US had promised they would get out of Manbij they haven't. From Northern Iraq to Afrin it is a TERROR CORRIDOR for Turks. For NATO it is a Daesh excuse. A group they created part of a Problem-Reaction-Solution strategy.

This is how people think here. Me? I think it's all madness. What's the point of killing a human being who is going to die one day anyway? But, it is an established belief here that the NATO works with the Terrorists. The U.S. finances, arms the terrorists, they are trained by Americans. And they are terrorists even though they may call the Turkish Republic as terrorists. Then America is terorrist, Germans and the French etc. are terrorists too. It's endless. It's a mess.

Where does Israel stand in all this? They are keeping quiet. They used to enjoy walking around with Israel-Kurdistan flags in the US-EU and Syria and Iraq. Where are they? The Turks are saying that they are now at war with Israel and her proxies US-EU states (not with PKK as a proxy!) The US-EU are called proxies? WOW! There is a lot of propaganda. I don't know about the real truth. But this is what is going on here and what people are talking about.

Posted by: ConfusedPundit | Jan 29 2018 22:01 utc | 235

Jackrabbit

I think Erdogan would put Goebbels to shame with his style in mass manipulation.
To me, it's not even a style, it's an art. LOL.

Posted by: ConfusedPundit | Jan 29 2018 22:05 utc | 236

@ confused pundit.. thanks again for the ongoing comments! i agree with you that the usa can't be trusted!!

Posted by: james | Jan 30 2018 1:08 utc | 237

question to confused pundit -

which turkish political leader said this?? either way, it sounds like the voice of a leader, not a dictator..

“The way to make peace between Turkey and Syria, to create rapprochement between the two countries and to jointly focus on maintaining [Syria’s] territorial integrity is [to establish] dialogue between Turkey and Syria. We should engage with Syria one way or another if we do not want terror organizations finding shelter in this country,” Kılıçdaroğlu told the Ankara bureau chiefs of media outlets on Jan. 29."

Posted by: james | Jan 30 2018 3:12 utc | 238

james 239

Fair enough but that's his smile you are talking about. We have problems with his sharp teeth underneath. LOL X LOL!

For one thing, there is a dialogue between Turkey and Syria. What is he talking about? I wonder what he is up to, that creep!

Turkey has on going dialogues with Russia and Iran means there is a dialogue with Syria too.
Secondly, the Vatan Partisi, VP, has open dialogue with the regime on behalf of the govt.

So why do you think he is forcing the govt. to come forward? KK is the voice of the globalists here. They know acting better than anyboby else.

KK also told the same bureau chiefs that he has full support for the op olive branch. What's his party doing now? Screaming their heads off to stop Erdogan! So what KK does is doublespeak!

KK has lost 8 (15 inclusive of other races) elections against Erdogan so far and yet he won't step down. Because of his smiles? No, he is a real dictator. He is a thief. He is a liar. He is a crippled beggar in daylight (you gave an example above) and is an athlete running from one nightclub to another at night.

Erdogan has real votes in his pocket, KK has none. Who is a dictator? How can you stay afloat if you have no votes?

The devil is in the detail. I live in his constituency. The mayor was removed from his seat a couple of months ago. Too much corruption. KK came here to defend his man and he told the public that the mayor had aquitted the court case against him. This is another example of a nice talk you mentioned above. What nobody sees is in the detail. How did the mayor aquit? I know how! So for me KK is a snake. People can see through him too and are complaining about him but he won't step down. Forget Erdogan, but at least we can have a proper opposition leader who can challenge him, it'll be good for the country. But the globalists don't want a patriotic mindset to replace Erdogan so they keep this puppet and they try their chance with this guy to bring down Erdogan. The globalists are dictators and therefore dictatorship is running in KK's genes too.

Poor me, who want's to represent me against both the govt and the opposition?

Posted by: ConfusedPundit | Jan 30 2018 7:48 utc | 239

The Turk military has moved down to the frontlines near Abal al Duhar to protect al Qaeda and SAA have fired a barrage in front of a Turk convoy.
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-army-artillery-fires-approaching-turkish- military-convoy-southwest-aleppo/
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/turkish-military-takes-positions-near-syrian-army- front-southern-aleppo/ (remove space for working link)

Locations named in the articles are here. http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=36.014810&lon=36.967964&z=13&m=b&search=Qammari%20
Frontlines can also be seen on the linked wikimapia page

Posted by: Peter AU 1 | Jan 30 2018 7:59 utc | 240

Dear james 239

It's because you only see his smile. We can see his sharp teeth underneath!

The example you give is from a disabled homeless asking for food in daylight but he is a bar hopping athlete at night.

He lost 8 elections (15 inclusive of other races) against Erdogan so far and yet he still refuses to step down. You want to challenge him at the party congress? What, you want a chair smashed on your head? LOL.

Posted by: ConfusedPundit | Jan 30 2018 9:02 utc | 241

@ James
What do you make of comment 131 in the Afghan thread at SST.

Posted by: Peter AU 1 | Jan 30 2018 9:22 utc | 242


We speak of Mount Bursaya, yesterday mentioned here. The latest news:
Turkey, Kurds play king of Syrian hill
Strategic peak slips through Turkey’s fingers for second time, spoiling media tour
By Asia Times staff January 30, 2018 6:19 AM (UTC+8)
Asia Times

Posted by: Hausmeister | Jan 30 2018 14:34 utc | 243

Hausmeister 243

I very much doubt it.

Normally the Turkish forces leave each captured area at night and come back the next day. This is for security reasons. But in Bursaya case, they've done that already. It's now a no-go area because TAF is probably preparing the hilltop to suit their needs.


The below link is banned in Turkey for security reasons. According to the map, even Qestel hasn't changed hands plus Bafliun hill further south is being shelled.

http://syria.liveuamap.com

What is most striking is that there is a massive Turkish convoy way down the south.

Here is a twitter account "op_shield" Fresh updates from the battlefield. Turkish and I find the source reliable.

Posted by: ConfusedPundit | Jan 30 2018 15:45 utc | 244

@ ConfusedPundit | Jan 30, 2018 10:45:04 AM | 244
Well, news are very contradictive in this moment. Funny to read Hürriyet. We could be in Afrin in few days if we would take so much care of civilians - a minister says. All international viewers agree that the main number of victims is with the civilians. That means the Turkish government should respect the performance of Comical Ali as prior art and not copy him without giving the source. In each war both sides lie.

Posted by: Hausmeister | Jan 30 2018 16:37 utc | 245

The U.S. instigated a coup against Erdogan

Is this accepted? The scale of the plot implies it wasn't a proper coup. (Hence why it was thwarted)

Posted by: Altai | Jan 30 2018 16:59 utc | 246

@ Altai | Jan 30, 2018 11:59:58 AM | 246
I would not think this is accepted. The Gülen people were in fact close to the US and their dirty trick department learnt a lot from them, with the knowledge and the acceptance of the rest-Erdogan-AKP. Second problem is that there is no open free debate in the country about it as the media are not free. My guess is that it will take some years to know more about the background of it. Remember: it took decades till the existence of Gladio came to the surface. Till that moment everybody believed in the FakeNews that the Red Brigades did the bombing of the Bologna railway station. Third problem: Erdogan uses the coup to destroy any present and potentially future resistance claiming it would be close to the coup. Result: obfuscating, not clearing the issue. Forth: in the Near East and in Greece everything is a conspiracy, for everybody. This belief is a perfect cover for everything. All doors are always open for Comical Ali types.

Posted by: Hausmeister | Jan 30 2018 17:45 utc | 247

Hausmeister (245)

"All international viewers agree that the main number of victims is with the civilians."

Sources please? How else do we determine above is not Black Propaganda?

I have 2 sources:

1)

The Pentagon said Monday it has no information about civilian casualties in Syria's Afrin region. "I am not aware of any incidents regarding what you just specified, Pentagon spokesman Colonel Rob Manning told reporters who were asking about allegations by PKK-affiliated People's Protection Forces....

2) Video. Children, Women, Civilian, you name it.

Taken from

Julian Röpcke

Journalist. Speaker. Political editor @BILD

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Aq-FYLKX0r4


Posted by: ConfusedPundit | Jan 30 2018 18:25 utc | 248

@241 confused pundit.. okay - i get it that the chp leader has been in power too long according to your view and that it would be good if he stepped down..

@242 peter au... i wasn't following that thread, but i went and looked.. that is thomas's comment about the nature of confused ponderer - correct? it is hard to know what to make of it! i like what confusedponderer has to say most all of the time, but thomas is presenting a very different slant on his background! see @86 thomas post on that thread for more of the same... seems like a bit of a low level food fight at stt to me..

Posted by: james | Jan 30 2018 18:33 utc | 249

@ peter... see @137 different clues comment to thomas.. i also like what different clue has to say most all of the time too..

Posted by: james | Jan 30 2018 18:36 utc | 250

@ james | Jan 30, 2018 1:33:03 PM | 250
Unfair insiders comments!
"What do you make of comment 131 in the Afghan thread at SST.“
What please is "SST“? URL?
@ ConfusedPundit | Jan 30, 2018 1:25:34 PM | 249
One of the sources was http://syria.liveuamap.com/ - Julian Röpcke, please, is no "source". He is a well known and unmasked transatlantic propaganda coverup guy, a cheater who promoted the White Helmets (terrorist PR), if you want the German Comical Ali. Kurdish sources claim it and I guess they are most probably right. See: the tactique to conquer a village or a city with light weapons and then hide among civilian was developed some years ago by American Think Tanks. How to win in asymmetric conflicts. Before 2010, as far as I remember. The islamic terrorists in Syria acted always like this. Took hospitals as commando buildings and cry foul when they were bombed. - In all cases, in Aleppo, in Mossul and in Raqqa the most casualties were therefore civilian. Culprit is in this case obviously the group that follows this tactique. In Afrin the YPG must not follow it as they are there anyway. To attack with the airforce means automatically that civilians lead the death toll. - Turkish media are useless at all. In Turkey there is state of emergency. Law does not work, Erdogan decides. Today the jailed 300 people for comments in social media. One cannot expect that Turkish media will „report“ then. They sell the goverment narrative.

Posted by: Hausmeister | Jan 30 2018 19:18 utc | 251

@ hausmeister.. hey - no problem.. i am sorry! it is sst here.. you and confusedpundit might enjoy some of the posts and personalities..

http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/

Posted by: james | Jan 30 2018 19:28 utc | 252

French msm are not interested in Afrin, they broadcast interviews of tge refugees fleeing Idleb

Posted by: Mina | Jan 30 2018 20:30 utc | 253

James, worth noting is pl's response.
I see confused p whoever, although obviously a reader of alternative news, quotes Röpcke as a source.

Posted by: Peter AU 1 | Jan 30 2018 20:51 utc | 254

@ peter.. i don't see pats response to any of that...

Posted by: james | Jan 30 2018 21:08 utc | 255

Hausmeister 252

Having read the SST blog for sometime, the owner of the blogs non response to the mentioned comment is worth noting. follow james link
confused p quoting pentagon and Röpcke... hard to tell who is genuine and who is not at times, but quoting these as sources?

Posted by: Peter AU 1 | Jan 30 2018 21:10 utc | 256

@ Peter AU 1 | 257

May be he was just confused? It's not that easy having a good time. In Turkey of today it seems even a bit less easy.

Posted by: Hausmeister | Jan 30 2018 21:20 utc | 257

@ confused p.
By your posts, you convey the impression you are apolitical. Generally a motivation of some sort is required to find blogs like this and other alternative sources of news.
You are aware of the alternative to MSM news, yet you quote pentagon spokesman and Röpcke - propaganda bullhorns - as sources.
A number of new commentators seem to appear on different threads lately with agendas ranging from watching out for comments that are damaging to their organisation to pushing a propaganda line.
You are somewhat vague, but an agenda different to the image conveyed in your posts.

Posted by: Peter AU 1 | Jan 30 2018 21:52 utc | 258

@ Peter AU 1 | 259

Hahaha! A perfect demonstration, for me, what happens in a FakeNews and Conspiracy-environment. I first thought ConfusedPundit is a paid AKP-Troll. Well, if he would be one he would figure as one of the best and most flexible ones they have. But I do not think so. He is well networked, not to shy to contact very different subcultures in his country, and at the end of the day kind of confused. A kind of sensible intelligent agnostic, close to cynism when it's up to describing the world. And he has some grains of anarchistic provocative joy. What is wrong with that? At least light years above the numerous examples of alt right antisemitic junk that we have to read daily. BTW the AKP cosmos is antisemitic, anti-mason, anti-democratic as well. More comedy one could not have invented.

Posted by: Hausmeister | Jan 30 2018 22:06 utc | 259

Peter AU 1

Yup, I scan alternative sources. I mentioned here earlier that I do my best to make up my own mind about the situation and that I take all sorts of information into consideration.

The source? Friend or foe? I'd take a look anyway.

I used to challenge many European sources in a very polite way. I got blocked. Even some journalists and politicians blocked me. Even some activists bloked me. Frederike Geerdink, Conflict News blocked me too. Turkish opposition MPs blocked me too. All I said was something like this: Sir or Madam... What have you got to say about this? And I included a link which contradicted their claims... Goodbye CP, god bless you, bye, off you go.

LOL!

So I have given up commenting. Miami police handcuffed a 7yr old boy the other day. I can imagine the boy's sentiments. LOL.

Posted by: ConfusedPundit | Jan 30 2018 22:28 utc | 260

@259 peter au... are you refering to confused ponderer over at sst, or @confused pundit here? it looks like you are refering to confused ponderer over at sst! this is where it gets confusing with a confused ponderer and a confused pundit!!!

Posted by: james | Jan 30 2018 22:42 utc | 261

Hausmeister (260)

You are right, I'm not an AKP troll. Do you know why though?

My mental cosmos speaking:

1) I said I wasn't one in the first place. So, if you are a professional person then perhaps your denial can be justified. But I am an ordinary guy. So I think it'd be really mean to lie to people whom you will most definitely never see in your life.

2) Because I'm not religious. I believe all troll activity is religious (Jewish, Christian, Muslim etc.) in essence. I'm not talking about brand fanboys and haters. Politics! So troll activity is a form of counter-intelligence? Well, all intel organisations are religious in essence. For religious purposes that these organisations were created in the first place.

3) I'm communicative. I'm courageous. I'm not ashamed to air my views. If I'm wrong I don't mind being corrected and I get satisfaction if I can be of any help when others need my side of the story. The truth sets all of us free.

BTW, you are right about AKP. But they are right to be angry birds too:

Germany guilty of double standards on Turkey, arrests own leakers

https://www.dailysabah.com/politics/2018/01/31/germany-guilty-of-double-standards-on-turkey-arrests-own-leakers

Posted by: ConfusedPundit | Jan 30 2018 23:50 utc | 262

The Wolf has decided to eat the Lamb.

Even the UNICEF is in it.

Dailysabah says Fake Photo. Pro-PKK league dismisses Sabah as pro-AKP.

What about the Truth?

Social media users demand apology from UNICEF over use of incorrect photo in Afrin post

https://www.dailysabah.com/turkey/2018/01/29/social-media-users-demand-apology-from-unicef-over-use-of-incorrect-photo-in-afrin-post

Posted by: ConfusedPundit | Jan 31 2018 0:27 utc | 263

@264 - confused pundit.. first off - be sure to read my post @262 directed at peter au..

there has been an ongoing onslaught of fake news revolving around what has happened in syria the past 6 or more years... the white helmets are a big example of it.. kenneth roth from hrw is another quick example that comes to mind.. there are so many paid and on salary liars for the usa/uk/ksa and etc - that it shows the level of depravity these countries will drop down to, in order to fabricate a reason for the regime change, or war policy towards assad and syria... so, it wouldn't surprise me that unicef did this intentionally, however it looks like an accident - only in so far as they have taken it down... the number of false flags that have been raised in syria has been significant.. i think the last one as my memory serves is the chemical attack on the airport in idlib that the rebels had held, even though it was taken from them by saa - they were on record claiming a chemical attack had happened on their rebel controlled airport... this was in the past 1-2 weeks...

Posted by: james | Jan 31 2018 1:07 utc | 264

@264 confused pundit.. here's an example from today of a potential false flag... anyone can claim whatever they want to help start another war.. the possibilities for deceit and lies is endless..

Posted by: james | Jan 31 2018 1:57 utc | 265

@confused pundit... it seems like someone is lying or trying to deceive with their choice of words.. it looks more like erdogan that is deceiving, then the chp leader... read on... i realize wikipedia is not a clear slate.. down below is how they are describing the differences between the fsa and tfsa... erdogan doesn't seem to want to make these distinctions... is that intentional on his part? looks like it to me...

“The FSA was established to defend its homeland. They are like the national forces [Kuva-I Milliye] during our War of Independence,” Erdoğan said, describing the CHP once again as “a party of treason.” link to these words here...

words today from erdogan....

2017 – Internal divisions, rise of Turkish-backed FSA

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_Syrian_Army - fsa...

The year 2017 saw a particularly divided FSA. Rebel factions operating under the banner of the Syrian Interim Government have merged in a unified armed group. Jawad Abu Hatab, the head of the opposition's Interim government and the Defense Minister, announced its official formation after meeting with moderate rebel commanders in the town of Azaz in Aleppo province. The newly-formed body has 22,000 fighters, some of them have been trained and equipped by Turkey.

Turkish-backed Free Syrian Army -= tfsa...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish-backed_Free_Syrian_Army

Connection with Turkey

The Turkey-backed FSA are the main non-Turkish Armed Forces component of Operation Euphrates Shield. The name is a misnomer, as they are distinct from the Free Syrian Army; their wages are paid for by the Turkish government, they operate alongside the Turkish Armed Forces, and they are generally not local to the area they operate in. Their chain of command has no connection to the Free Syrian Army.[4][62] Injured Turkey-backed FSA troops have been treated in Turkey.[63] The Turkey-backed Free Syrian Army are also distinguishable from other Free Syrian Army (FSA) groups because they have attacked YPG and other SDF units,[64] which the FSA generally has not done (besides occasional skirmishes on Afrin's southern border with Idlib-based groups), while they have refrained from attacking the Syrian Arab Army, the main opponent of most FSA groups.

There are moves by Turkey to consolidate the units within their sphere of influence into one formal army, with a suggestion that it be called the "Syrian National Army".[65]

Posted by: james | Jan 31 2018 2:33 utc | 266

I love this blog and have read every comment every day for over a year now. This was an excellent post. I agree with b.'s analysis of the US offering conciliatory actions for this blunder and I've read today from Sorcha Fail (which I won't link) that Deep State, Centcom, CIA traitors to Trump made these gaffes. (Ha) One item that I haven't noticed anyone consider in this particular thread are the F-16's. Wiki reports that Turkey maintains 270 of them. I don't know the details Turkey worked out originally, but I will throw out a WAG. IF- they paid 20 million apiece for planes, licenses, spare parts kits and EW: then Turkey would be paying 20 million each per year still. That's close to 4 or 5 billion for consumables, licenses and EW. GD retains ownership and while (I doubt) anyone in USAF has the clearance to run the EW or any add on Pods; I'd certainly bet money that no one in Turkey does. GD employees operate GD intellectual property.
When Erdogan certainly understands that the flip of a switch grounds his entire air force; how far do you believe he'd be willing to push the rhetoric and actions beyond the script? Minor infractions lead to accidental programming errors that get your pilots lit up from over the horizon or momentarily fail to jam a 1960's era radar. "Oops, we've reprimanded that programmer for a careless oversight!" "Sorry." Little occasional reminders help you fully understand the gravity of having an Air Force with no planes to fly. That leak to the media would immediately make him unpopular enough to cost him an election.
Training our counterparts here, I found them to be capable, proficient, friendly and curious. You could round trip anywhere Southwest flew at the time for $30 and the groups that came over took advantage of discovering and experiencing everything they possibly could while here training. We didn't enjoy as much freedom to roam about far from housing while there, but that was policy set by GD and not Turkey, that I remember. Our counterparts were hospitable and wanted for us to visit their homes and meet their families, which we could as long as we requested in advance. Yet, however capable I thought the engineers to be; by contract they could not design or modify nor rarely maintain tooling and fixtures. We might consider requests or suggestions but were under no obligation to comply. Tools and fixtures would be returned to Ft. Worth. Like I stated previously, I do not know the financial or licenses exact details; I believe I've made pretty accurate guesses and I do not believe Turkey will ever voluntarily or non-voluntarily leave Nato. Presidents of countries come and go. The President of GD is untouchable and forever and he is going to get his 5 billion every year from Turkey.

Posted by: mrd | Jan 31 2018 3:42 utc | 267

In looking up the definitions I see a ponderer evaluates, whereas a pundit evaluates and gives opinion, so yes they are different words.
Confused p, the alarm bells are ringing for me as to who you are and what your agenda is, but then again, you may be genuine.

Posted by: Peter AU 1 | Jan 31 2018 7:08 utc | 268

Dear James,

We have to start from the Greenwich Meridian otherwise we'll get lost.

"there are so many paid and on salary liars for the usa/uk/ksa and etc - that it shows the level of depravity these countries will drop down to"

We see that too and we are shocked. It's the end of the world. We can't deal with it. It's a moral issue and the west will have to sort it out themselves.

"so, it wouldn't surprise me that unicef did this intentionally, however it looks like an accident - "

There have been millions of such 'accidents'. If you think that particular Unicef case looks like an accident, then they are winning the propaganda wars (I think they will anyway). They'll organize more accidents because they can get away with it. It's the end of the world.


As for the FSA case, Erdogan described his version of the FSA as National Forces [Kuva-I Milliye]
The Coalition describes PKK (YPG-SDF) as Freedom Fighters. Marie Claire published the photos of YPJ (female YPG) beauties.

Turkish govt pays FSA fighters $220 per month where as the PKK(YPG-SDF) fighters get I believe $310 from the Americans.

So they are not exactly voluntary groups as the Kuva-I Milliye once were.

But Erdogan's FSA comes from Syria. They are defending their land. The PKK are the invaders. The western propaganda network thinks otherwise. So you won't see that.

There are 3.5 million Syrian refugees in Turkey but the PKK controls 30% of the Syrian territory even though the Kurdish population in Syria was only 9%. PKK/YPG/SDF = Invaders. Mercenaries.

Erdogan is not making any mistake here. He is right.

1) Erdogan has been an ISIS-AQ supporter. US-EU propaganda.

The reality:

7000 inmates escaped Mousul, Libya, Afghan, Egyptian prisons in a week. A lot escaped from the Abu Ghraib too. (Abu Ghraib!) and presto!, ISIS!. That means that the US-EU gangs support terrorism. It's a fact eventhough the western media may think otherwise. It's a fact for me. I don't care what Turks or western media think.

ISIS gave Erdogan millions of barrels of oil. Propaganda.

In reality:

The Coalition now controls Rakka, Deir Zor oil fields. They even tried to steal Kirkuk oil too.
So what do we make of this? We took the oil from Erdogan's prying hands?

James, Erdogan is an angel, he is Angel E.

"it seems like someone is lying or trying to deceive with their choice of words.. it looks more like erdogan that is deceiving, then the chp leader."

James, CHP leader is a conman. He is a traitor. He is a liar. Erdogan is Angel E. Male version of Angel A. You can criticise him for selling his body but he does that to get some money which he will then give to a guy in despair. Is E a good angel or a bad one?

The chronology of the case is like this:

1) CHP first tried to prevent TAF from going into Afrin.
2) When they failed to do so they announced their support for the operation.
They didn't say anything about the FSA back then!!! There was too much puplic support for the operation.
3) They waited until Bursaya was taken by TAF + FSA. Then they went berserk. "FSA is AQ, FSA is ISIS, let 10.000 Turkish die but we don't want the FSA!"

The CHP leader, KK, is confused. He said this: 'YPG is not a terrorist group, they are trying to defend their homeland"

KK now doesn't mind calling the YPG as terrorists because U.S. govt. refers them as terrorists too.

KK was used to defend the Gulenists too. Because KK believed in democracy. LOL.
KK defends the PKK + Gulenists and he goes abroad to complain about Erdogan.
KK and his guys have stolen the party from the Ataturkists, Kemalists (KK sacked all of them from the party)

I mean I'm confused too but until the opposition make their mind, Erdogan is an angel for me. Angel E.

And an Anti-Erdogan guy says that!


Posted by: ConfusedPundit | Jan 31 2018 10:09 utc | 269

Dear Peter AU 1 (269)

"Confused p, the alarm bells are ringing for me as to who you are and what your agenda is, but then again, you may be genuine."

Yes, I'm genuine! I have no agenda! It's just that I can't stop this urge in me to join the debates when I see so much false information.

Care for an analogy?

Simone (S1m0ne)

Al Pacino thinks he can't take it anymore. He wants to kill S1m0ne. He makes another film, S1m0ne is crawling in filth in a pigsty. The idea here is that he wants to create a bad image about S1m0ne to get her fans to gradually leave her in time.

That's how I read that scene in my mental cosmos.

But, the movie ends. The audience applaud S1m0ne anyway. They don't get the message. They think S1m0ne (Simulation 1) is real and that this one was another good acting on her part.

Peter AU 1

What can I do? I'm a Turkishman in Turkey and nobody likes that song these days because of Erdogan's bad image and because of the globalist black propaganda campaigns.

Posted by: ConfusedPundit | Jan 31 2018 10:38 utc | 270

@ ConfusedPundit | Jan 31, 2018 5:38:22 AM | 271

"What can I do?" - The easiest is to try it with reason.

(1) All those repressive anti-Kurdish actions of the Kemalist state from ca. 1922 until today must be evaluated as terroristic acts. Bombing mass gatherings of HDP supporters in the election campaign as well. - The only way to come to a reasonable solution then is for all (!) sides to immediately stop to use these nonsense terrorism labels. YPG=PKK (which is wrong), even if true: so what? Because: deep state=terrorist.
Erdogan=dictator, no free media, no independent law system.

(2) This Yeni Safak article is just one more piece of propaganda. It compares what cannot be compared: leaking secrets by employees to a third party and the work of investigative jounalists that discover illegal state actions. That is their job! - Erdogans friends survived the rough repression of the late Kemalist state in Germany. From the Nazi history of Germany it is unthinkable to deliver people that are claimed from political reasons. Punctum. That criminal figures like this Zekariya Öz (Gülen attorney, dirty tricks specialist) benefit from it as well... a pity.

Always keep in mind that the attitude that you show does not come to 50% in the electorate. Not even with all the power Erdogan has now from the emergency status, his command of all media and the state apparatus. The atmosphere in the volatile part of the middle classes is very cool on Erdogan at this moment.

Posted by: Hausmeister | Jan 31 2018 10:58 utc | 271


Notorious Hermann Göring expressed Erdogans method as early as 1945:

"To make people follow the leaders orders is possible, with or without elections. Very easy. One does not need anything else than tell the people they would be attacked, claim the pazifists lack patriotism and claim this attitude would endanger the country. This method functions in any country."

(Hermann Göring, 18. April 1946, Nürnberg)
G.M. Gilbert, „Nürnberger Tagebuch“, Fischer Frankfurt a. M., 1962, S. 270

This is exactly what Erdogan does now. 300 pacifists have been jailed for activities on social media. They urged for peace. And I still ask, @all and @ConfusedPundit: where is one single documented research attack of the YPG on Turksih soil - excluding, of course, all one sided partisan claims?

Posted by: Hausmeister | Jan 31 2018 12:32 utc | 272

@268 mrd - gd - general dynamics? maybe of your abbreviated names - ew - ?? are over my head...

@confused pundit... unicef as propaganda outlet.. i can buy into that...

as for your comments on erdogan and etc, i have to fall back on @273 hausmeisters comments directed at you... i see it much the same as @273 hausmeister.. i am sorry, but erdogan is not going to get a pass from me at this point!! thanks for your comments!!!

Posted by: james | Jan 31 2018 18:54 utc | 273

maybe - i meant many....

Posted by: james | Jan 31 2018 18:54 utc | 274

Dear Hausmeister,

Can I answer you one by one but not in a specific order?

I'm going to avoid the Hermann Göring bit because I'll have to read more about it.

1) Erdogan = Dictator

Well, to some maybe. To me not at all.

2) No free media

No free media in what way? I have access to all sides. Who is having problems? Can you be more spesific please? The Gulenist media is no more. But that's a good thing. Don't you think?

3) No independent law system.

Was it independent when it was 90% in the hands of the Gulenists' a few years ago? Was there any complaint from the West back then? Law system, a kind infrastructure. There was an American led NATO attack on Turkey. Infrastructure is no more. Now Erdogan is accused of not delivering clean water to the citizens? I think you are asking too much. Sorry but Erdogan cannot live up to your standards for the next decade or so. Gulen is in America now living in a 10.000 acres compound. There is a Zarrab case in the U.S. aganist Erdogan. Judge Berman had come to Turkey, invited and paid by the Gulenists and had uttered a few bitter 'political' comments towards Erdogan. He is now in the U.S. enjoying the independent law system.

4) YPG=PKK (which is wrong), even if true...

Which one? Or are they the children of Adam & Eve for you? Or the grandchildren of Mother Teresa?

CIA officially recognizes PYD as terror group PKK's Syrian wing
PYD = Political body
YPG = Male fighters of PYD
YPJ = Female fighters of PYD

So? There you go, I deserve my nickname. I am confused.

SDF = PKK = PYD = YPG = YPJ = HDP (Turkish PYD) = PJAK (Iranian PKK)

They are all being trained in the same military camps. I am puzzled.


Well, Hausmeister, as you can see it's a mess. (To me it's the USraEU ganging up on Turkey)

5) Yeni Safak and some other papers support Erdogan. Heavy propaganda is their common denomination.

The opposition does propaganda to the root of their back tooth.

AFP news agency today #BREAKING Macron warns Turkey against 'invasion' of Syria.

The opposition (CHP and the rest) : The FSA must get out of Afrin asap (BTW, it's their own land).

2+2 = 4. The opposition (local and international) wants the TAF alone = Invaders!!

LOL. Clever squirrels! Turks are not that stupid anymore. July 15, 2016. US led NATO attack on Turkey. Turkish people won't believe the US+EU anymore. Never ever again. So the west will have to figure out a new way to deal with this new situation. Drop a nuke on Erdogan's palace or something. Or tell the world Erdogan killed Frank Sinatra. Most American and European people will believe that because they have No Free Media there looking at it from my mental cosmos.

Posted by: ConfusedPundit | Jan 31 2018 20:57 utc | 275

@ ConfuedPundit | Jan 31, 2018 3:57:59 PM | 276

Thanks for answering! I will answer tomorrow. I am not confused now, just tired.

Posted by: Hausmeister | Jan 31 2018 21:04 utc | 276

@ ConfusedPundit | Jan 31, 2018 3:57:59 PM | 276

Göring was the second man in the Nazi system.

„1) Erdogan = Dictator
Well, to some maybe. To me not at all.“
Yes, this was the credo of many people in that period as well.
Extreme violence-supported conformism. I gave some examples. You have the same opinion or you are even a sycophant: no trouble. If you have a different opinion the give a hard time to you.

„2) No free media
No free media in what way? I have access to all sides. Who is having problems? Can you be more spesific please? The Gulenist media is no more. But that's a good thing. Don't you think?“
You have access to all sides - that are not forbidden. If you dare to connect to Wikipedia they catch your IP, heaven knows what happens then. In most cases nothing happens, but you never know. And that is the problem. As long as now independent justice defines in a public court case who is „Gülenist“ the problem is obvious. Don't you think so? As a matter of fact any open debate is forbidden. You never know whether somebody comes up with the accussation that you are a secret supporter of terrorists. Then you are in trouble.

„3) No independent law system.
Was it independent when it was 90% in the hands of the Gulenists' a few years ago? Was there any complaint from the West back then?“
At the beginning of the AKP rule it slowly started to get better. The kemalist law system was partisan and corrupt. Yes, there were constant complaints from the EU bodies about it. Now the law system is broken.
See: somebody is jailed and accused of supportin terrorists. The number one guy in the country says in the public that he is of course guilty. In a free country with a working justice system a court would immediately set him free. As it seems impossible to get a fair trial under such circumstances. You got it?

4)
Terrorists. Sorry, all nonsense! Why? All the actions of the Kemalist state against the Kurds, including later the Erdogan state, must be evaluated as terroristic in the same way you regard the PKK to be a terrorist body. And with terrorists one does never bargain, no? - Many years the official position was: there is nothing like „Kurd“. Then: these people do not have an own language. Then: Kurds do not exist, only „mountain Turks“. To speak Kurdish in the street was forbidden. If somebody without any connections to the PKK spoke up like „we must solve the Kurdish question“ he was immediately jailed for supporting terrorists? How? Just the expression „Kurdish question“ was viewed as such a supporting act. - All in all: the terrorist claim is just a weak excuse for avoiding a political solution of the problem. All of us should stop even to listen to such nonsense. There would be 1001 reasons to reject any talk with Erdogan, as he is a terrorist or terrorist helper. What could we gain from it?

„Drop a nuke on Erdogan's palace or something. Or tell the world Erdogan killed Frank Sinatra. Most American and European people will believe that because they have No Free Media there looking at it from my mental cosmos.“

Damned, @ConfusedPUndit: you sit in a glasshouse! The amount of nonsense that is printed or told in the Erdogan-controlled media is close to unbelievable.

“A Turkish academic claimed on Jan. 6 that the Prophet Noah called his son via cell phone shortly before the famous flood, the story of which is recounted in both the Quran and the Old Testament.
Speaking on state-run channel TRT 1 on Jan. 6, Yavuz Örnek, a lecturer at the Marine Sciences Faculty of Istanbul University, said Noah communicated with his son via cell phone as they were a long way from each other.“
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkish-academic-claims-prophet-noah-used-cell-phone-to-call-his-son-before-flood-125380

What we see is a whole country occupied with head banging right now.

Posted by: Hausmeister | Feb 1 2018 10:45 utc | 277

@ 274 James

Thx for responding. I need to learn to edit my thoughts so I can contribute to the topic.
The F-16’s that Turkey operates need to be included with any analysis of the situation of Who Lost Turkey or even if Turkey is lost.
General Dynamics – yes
1. If Erdogan leaves or is thrown out of Nato, his 270 F16’s might not start the next morning. He cannot push too far beyond the script.
2. Erdogan cannot let his partnership with General Dynamics sour, either
3. For Russia or China to ‘turn’ Erdogan would require an immediate delivery of enough quantity of fighter jets to defend Turkey from her enemies.
Consumables
1. Publicly available info quantifies the cost of ownership of fighter jets. F-16’s are listed at $20K per flight hour.
2. Consumables are more than changing the oil or cleaning the windshield. Electronics have to be calibrated and aluminum structural parts have to be changed out.
3. A guess of this $ amount is 20K x 300 flight hours per year x 270 fighter jets is in the range of $5B total/yr. cost of ownership payable to General Dynamics.
EW – electronic warfare
1. A brutal, deadly war occurs electronically between on-board computers and hostile computer systems
2. Without the on-board computers, an accurately thrown rock will down a fighter jet.
3. Therefore, as relations between Erdogan vs Nato and/or General Dynamics sour; escalating levels of random programming errors of on-board electronics might accidentally occur. These “oops” errors serve as a reminder of who is actually in charge of the Turkish Air Force and incrementally escalate long before arriving to the point where all 270 of their F-16’s fail to start.
4. Maintenance and upgrades payable to General Dynamics

So, I agree 100% with b. conclusion that the US has to walk back their huge gaffe. In my opinion: the President of General Dynamics will tell the President of the US and Nato and the President of Turkey that’s how it’s going to be. The costs and the time required to gift a fully supplied and trained Air Force to Turkey are greater than the potential benefits Russia or China would be willing to incur. Turkey will remain in Nato.

Posted by: mrd | Feb 1 2018 17:24 utc | 278

@279 mrd...

thanks.. that is quite a fascinating post and i hear what you are saying... does GD have some type of long standing contract with turkey on this level? it sounds like that is what you are saying.. what you say makes perfect sense.. i had to go back and read your post again @268 to appreciate your comment and insights.. thanks.. i guess this is why many people say that the military industrial complex - gd in this example - are calling many of the shots and have really taken over executive decisions on the part of '''democratically elected''' leaders... the other part is the financial industry complex which this is about too... anyone would could guarantee a payment of 5 billion a year - is also working for the fic...

Posted by: james | Feb 1 2018 17:52 utc | 279

Dear Hausmeister,

I think you have a problem with your viewfinder.

If you were my wedding photographer, none of the prints would include the bride! LOL.

I believe there is no internationally agreed definition of terrorism.

The U.S. govt. (regarded as being an Israeli proxy or a puppet by many Turkish citizens, by many American citizens, many Europeans, many people in the ME and elsewhere) refers to the PKK members as 'terrorists' and 'our partners' simultaneously. The U.S. govt. has to make up it's mind. Only then we will be able see what we are talking about.

To most people in this region, the Western Hemisphere = Hypocrites. Sometimes I'm having difficulty in disagreeing with that view.

My definition of terrorism in the case of PKK/YPG/PYD/SDF doesn't depend solely on the acts of the aforementioned groups but also who is defining the very same groups as Kurds, freedom fighters etc. and for what purpose? The latter part is where The Devil plays hide and seek.

So, if you think Erdogan puts 300 people in jail you should also consider the fact that there is an American priest in jail too and there are arrest warrants for Barkey and Fuller too. You should also consider the fact that somebody has sent these footsoldiers to the battleground. Somebody 'made' Erdogan do what he is doing, his partner(s) in crime, behind the doors. We can't single out Erdogan IMHO.

So, if you think the Kemalist 'State' and Erdogan 'State', as you put it, must be evaluated as terroistic then you'll have to bring the Brtish, the Americans, the Germans, the French, the Israelis, the Belgians, practically all Europeans into the equation for the Britons did have a problem with the Kemalist State and they incited a few Kurdish clans against it, and the Americans did give weapons to the PKK before the Erdogan State, 2 U.S. choppers were shot down by Turks because they were assisting PKK terrorists during a battle. 2 sea sparrows were accidentally fired from Saratoga (deliberately, according to an American I spoke with who was in Saratoga's oproom at the time) at Turkish Muavenet killing 5 Turkish naval officers. U.S. AT4s manufactured under Sweedish licence are used by PKK against TAF. U.S. produced RDX was used in many suicide bombings in Turkish cities. The U.S. govt. works with the PKK members who are considered as Terrorists here. In short, the U.S. govt. helps Terrorists. The U.S. govt. says Turkey is their ally and the PKK are their partners. This is called Hypocracy, not 'American Interests'. It's a polygamous relationship. Whether it is practiced amongst the Mormons or Arabs.

In short, you have to bring a lot of things into the equation. Your description of Erdogan State holds true ceteris paribus. But Erdogan doesn't give AT4s to South Dacota natives or to the Mexicans crossing the border and if the U.S. govt. is giving them to the PKK then both the PKK and the U.S. govt. are Terrorists. Turkish armies are based in Turkey where as the U.S. armies are based worldwide. Centcom, Bullycom, U.S.interestscom, Mercanariescom... What I'm trying to say is that if Erdogan is given a break the Turks would take care of things themselves. But you can't call 2 guys, Ataturk and Erdogan, who are trying to break free from colonialists as repressors. If the Kurds want freedom so do the Turks. Why support one party? That's not fishy anymore rather it is regarded as Hostility. I don't think the Western govts will change their politics but I don't think the people in this region will stop defending themselves either. The PKK has now geodepth, all the way down to the 100% Arabic territory Rakka, dier Zor, oil fields.

I think the Turks should leave NATO asap and ally with Russia, Iran and Syria against the Western invasion. I think the Turks should also take the case (U.S. + EU helping the terrorists) to La Hague too. The situation is that bad here. It has nothing to do with Erdogan whom the U.S. led NATO attempted to topple via (luckily failed) coup.

IMHO. I'm just thinking out loud, not 100% sure unless stated otherwise.
Regards.

Posted by: ConfusedPundit | Feb 1 2018 18:38 utc | 280

Dear mrd,

The Turkish govt. is not interested in U.S. fighter jets, nor in German tanks nor in Israeli UAVs.

They manufacture their UAVs (armed and recon)

Their Hurkus project is near completion.

Turkish fighter jet TAI TFX is being worked on.

Turkish main battle tank Altay needs an engine and it is being worked on.

The Turks do not 'trust' one bit to their 'allies'. Not anymore.

They have their national rifle MPT-76, Bora sniper, MPT-55, and some more.
Previously they had G3s, manufactured on German H&K licence. The H&K imposed sanctions on Turkey.

The Germans talk about imposing sanctions on Turkey re the Leopards.

The Israelis refused to deliver more Herons. And they were very expensive too.

The NATO imposed sanctions on Turkey during the Turkish-Cypriot war 1974.

The Turks are bitter. 70 years of mistreatment by their 'allies'. That's what they think.

But the US+EU allience knows better. I'm sure they are aware of what they are doing.

Posted by: ConfusedPundit | Feb 1 2018 19:01 utc | 281

@ ConfusedPundit | Feb 1, 2018 2:01:27 PM | 281

You praised polls in the context of the question how vivid the Turkish democracy is. Strange for me as polls would be possible in any dictatorship as well. Anyway, here is one:


http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/opinion/mustafa-aydin/public-support-for-cross-border-operations-126603

"On the other side, 57.8 percent of the respondents expressed support for Turkey’s EU membership, breaking the three-year downward trend. While debate over alternative scenarios for Turkey’s relationship with the EU has been taking place in Europe and Turkey, 43.6 percent of the respondents still believe that membership negotiations should continue, while 29.8 percent of the population prefers suspending them and 26.6 percent ending the talks altogether.

There is a similar trend in terms of Turkey’s NATO membership. Some 59.2 percent of the respondents support the continuation of Turkey’s membership, while only 8.6 percent believes that it is better to end Turkey’s NATO connection."

As I said before: nice that you hold your head upright in spite of the fact that you stand for a minority position.

Posted by: Hausmeister | Feb 1 2018 19:45 utc | 282

@ Hausmeister

I don't know what it was like before me but I see people quoting only from the HurriyetDailyNews.

That's the voice of the globalists in Turkey. Their Turkish version has this slogan "Turkiye Turklerindir" on it's logo. "Turkey belongs to the Turks." Oxymoron.

The slogan belongs to another media mogul, who called the leader of the previous Islamist party 'THE DEVIL'. He lost his newpaper's ownership to Erdogan's guys.

It is this one. Worth taking a look more often as it represents the other side of the coin, the current ruling body's side.

https://www.dailysabah.com/

This is your post (273)

"Notorious Hermann Göring expressed Erdogans method as early as 1945:"

"To make people follow the leaders orders is possible, with or without elections. Very easy. One does not need anything else than tell the people they would be attacked, claim the pazifists lack patriotism and claim this attitude would endanger the country. This method functions in any country."

Last sentence: "This method functions in any country."

Does it function in the U.S.A?

Kim wants to nuke America. (A globalist boy with Swiss mother) And the American public believes that?

Assad is using chemical weapons apparently, according to the U.S. govt.

The U.S. president should get ready to jump on a fighter jet because Assad has built a very large UFO and plans to attack America on July 4. Erdogan is not so imaginative as the U.S. dictators (by Göring's definition) as yet.

Don't get me wrong, I feel I look I'm being on the defensive. I'm not on the same wavelenght with Erdogan. I don't favor the CHP either (who are fascists and compradores as opposed to the AKP who are fascists with visual tendency towards achieving national and patriotic Turkey)

I insist that, Erdogan must not be demonized. He cannot be singled out. Developing countries follow the tracks of developed ones. There is a cause and effect situation here. Erdogan is a leader under pressure not a genius. He is shrewd but not a genius. I see the problem elsewhere. It is obvious that the wolf has decided to eat the lamb. That's why the U.S.A. is not sitting at the table with Erdogan. There are ongoing talks behind the doors but the Turks are adamant that this time there is a very serious national security issue. It is the U.S.A. who has to step back not a country which is not even a tenth in size. Otherwise the Wolf either wants to eat the lamb or make it as his concubine. Turks long for independence.

The main theme of my previous post is about putting 'everything' on the table. So I do know about the Islamist academic who had a chat with Noah on the phone. There are many weirdos like that here and everywhere on the planet. But an Islamic sect was raided yesterday and their activity was banned too. What does that tell you? You'll have to go through my earlier posts. What's happening is exactly what I told you would happen.

Posted by: ConfusedPundit | Feb 1 2018 21:19 utc | 283

@284 confused pundit... cp - you seem to be getting confused over the fact that the usa is indeed a very deceptive and manipulative actor on the world stage, but that many of us view erdogan in the same way! it is not a case of one or the other.. it is a case of both of them are playing deceptive games.. and the daily sabah propaganda is so blatant - that is why i and some others use the only remaining choice since the others were removed - hurriyet.. go read the lastest post by b... i am curious what you have to say! cheers!

Posted by: james | Feb 1 2018 21:32 utc | 284

Dear Hausmeister,

Could you also please remember that when you quoted from the Asian Times that the PKK sources said they had retaken Mt. Bursaya from the TAF and FSA I told you I doubted their claims.

Who was right? Me.

I'm a giving you fresher info. I'm doing my best to be impartial and am trying to pass unbiased views to you.

Posted by: ConfusedPundit | Feb 1 2018 21:36 utc | 285

@ ConfusedPundit

In case I criticize things in Turkey I do not mean that everything outside Turkey is better. Certain things, yes. Other things are better in Turkey, a marvellous country. The mood of people on the street, in the public, for instance. If you enter Austria or Germany good mood is gone, in the train. Everybody looks to his mobile phone or reads a book. A decent conversation many sense as disturbance. Do not take me wrong and go through my answers: demonizing Erdogan is the last thing I intend to do. And yes, certain mechanisms work in the USA, and in Germany, as well as in Turkey.
The more and more crooked Internet works everywhere as a catalysator for mass hysteria, difficult not to loose track.
But a lot of things that developed in Turkey in the last 3-4 years I strongly dislike, they brought the country down, waste time. And ultimately there is one thing that I will never swallow: if people try to force their own religious rules by violence on other people. Straight (Iran) or "soft" (Turkey) does not matter. All sides should stop this "terrorist" bla bla right now and use the brain for a political solution, for balances of interests, find deals the majority of people in the NE can live with.

Posted by: Hausmeister | Feb 1 2018 21:39 utc | 286

@ ConfusedPundit | Feb 1, 2018 4:36:42 PM | 286

"Could you also please remember that when you quoted from the Asian Times that the PKK sources said they had retaken Mt. Bursaya from the TAF and FSA I told you I doubted their claims."

According to what I have learnt now both were right. The YPG got it back once and lost it again.

Posted by: Hausmeister | Feb 1 2018 21:42 utc | 287

Me "Could you also please remember that when you quoted from the Asian Times that the PKK sources said they had retaken Mt. Bursaya from the TAF and FSA I told you I doubted their claims."

Hausmeister "According to what I have learnt now both were right. The YPG got it back once and lost it again."

An unforgivable 'mistake' (presumably) on Asian Times part about a highly sensitive issue for 2 reasons:

Their report PKK claiming they took the hill back was published almost 72 hours after the TAF took Mt. Bursaya.

1) Their staff is useless.
2) The PKK propaganda capability is way ahead compared to the Turks'. Great success on PKK's or their friends' part.

Posted by: ConfusedPundit | Feb 1 2018 22:24 utc | 288

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