|
Iran – Few Protests – Some Riots – U.S. Prepares The Next Phase
Updated below:
—
The riots and protests in Iran continue for a 6th day. While "western" media claim that the protests are growing I see no evidence for that in the various videos that appear online. The legitimate protests over price rises, failing private banks and against the new neoliberal austerity budget of President Rohani were hijacked early on by rioting gangs. These are obviously coordinated from the outside of the country through various internet applications, especially Telegram and Instagram:
Amad News, a channel on Telegram, appears to have played a pivotal role in the wave of protests. Reportedly administered by exiled journalist Rohollah Zam — a son of a senior Reformist cleric said to have escaped the country after being accused of having links with foreign intelligence agencies …
Blocking the specific control channels proved to be insufficient:
Special software used to circumvent the government filters could still be downloaded easily. And on Monday, as on other days, there were calls for protests online and on foreign-based Persian-language satellite channels.
The blockage of the internet applications was lifted today.
The original protests over economic issues seem to have died down after President Rouhani confirmed the right to protest, conceded economic problems and promised to take them on. Indeed there are only few new videos of genuine protest marches but an avalanche of videos of rioting, arson and tussling with police forces. The size of the protests are in a few hundred people or less. Counter demonstrations, expressing loyalty for the republic (not noted in "western" media), are bigger in size than the anti-government protests. Since December 28 protests and riots have occurred in a total of 66 cities by now, but only about 30 have been taking place each night. This might point to some planning behind the events. A daily switching of venues might be intended to prevent police preparations.
The groups of rioters are between 30 and 80 people in size with a some bystanders milling around. They seem to follow a flash mob strategy appearing here and there and to vanish again when police appears in force. In some cities rioters attacked police stations, military posts and were even stealing firetrucks. Some of the rioters are evidently trying to get their hands on weapons.
Altogether only a few thousand people, overwhelmingly male youth, seem to be involved. Thousands protest in Israel each week against the corruption of Prime Minister Netanyahoo. On New-Years-Eve more than 1,000 cars in France were set alight by arsonists. None of this is front page news but a few dozen riots in Iran get elevated to a "revolution".
The total death toll of the "peaceful protests" is now some 21 of which (by my count) at least five were policemen killed in attacks by "protesters" and two unrelated civilians who were run over and killed by rioters driving a stolen firetruck. Six rioters were killed when they tried to attack a police station in the town of Qahderijan. The governor there claimed that the attackers were armed with guns.
The same faking of pictures of large demonstrations and "evidence" of government brutality that we have seen with regard to the war on Syria is taking place with Iran. Videos of demonstrations from Argentine and Bahrain are used to claim large demonstrations in Iran. A tweet with the Bahrain video by a "journalist" who claimed it was in Iran has received more than 17,000 re-tweets. Videos from Spain or even movie scenes are purported to show police violence in Iran. A video of a man lying on his back and being cared for is once claimed to show that he has been shot by police while at the same time another propagandists claims that the man had a cardiac arrest after police used a taser on him. There are no signs of wounds or other trauma. The dude probably just passed out.
The terrorist group MEK (NCRI, MKO) "leaked" fake protocols of an alleged government meeting which it claims shows panic over the protests. Allegedly the government fears the leader of the MEK, Marjam Rajavi. The MEK has paid large sums to get support from politicians, including John McCain in Washington and elsewhere. During the Iraq-Iran war it fought against Iran on the side of Iraq. After the U.S. invaded Iraq the MEK was held in special camps under U.S. control. According to a 2012 Seymour Hersh report the U.S. military trained MEK fighters in the U.S. in sabotage and insurgency technics. These people are deeply hated in Iran but feared they are not. Their early engagement in the "protests" via their website and propaganda ops in Iran may point to deeper role in the riots.
The usual neoconservatives in the U.S. media are arguing for "more help" for the "Iranian people". The help they want to offer is designed to worsen their economic situation.
I earlier argued that the larger plan of the instigators of these riots is not aimed at winning a violent "regime change" conflict, but at causing a reaction by the Iranian government which can then be used to press especially Europeans to again isolate Iran. This plan is now confirmed by an op-ed in the Washington Post. Michael Singh of the Zionist lobby in Washington writes:
If the regime resorts to violence anyway, the international response should focus on diplomatic isolation. European and Asian states should reduce their diplomatic ties with Iran and downgrade Iran’s participation in international forums. Sanctions may also have a role …
Unsurprisingly the neoconned WaPo editors are fully in sync with the lobby:
European leaders, who have been far more cautious, should speak up. … On Sunday [President Rohani of Iran] recognized that the demonstrators had legitimate grievances and nominally accepted their right to protest. The Trump administration and other Western governments should aim to hold him to those words through diplomacy and the threat of sanctions in the event of more bloodshed.
The rioting at the current level is in no way endangering the Iranian republic. Should some rioters acquire weapons the intensity might change a bit. But unless they receive material and personal support from the outside, like it happened in Syria, the situation will soon calm down. The people of Iran are against such violence and the government has yet to use its manifold capabilities.
I had documented in earlier posts that the Trump administration, in tight co-operations with Israel, long prepared for an intensification of a conflict with Iran. Half a year ago the CIA set up a special office with a high level Iran hawk leading the charge. Last month Trump named another Iran hawk to lead the State Department Middle East section.
Since the Iranian people successfully achieved "regime change" in 1979 the U.S. and Britain have had an adversarial policy against Iran. It has ebbed and flowed in intensity but never changed. Under Trump we will see a rapid increase of hostile actions. The administration just called for a UN emergency session about the situation. That is a laughable move when one considers the size of daily murder the U.S. and its allies commit in Yemen, Syria and Palestine. But the operation that unfolds now is likely just a small part of a larger anti-Iran strategy that has yet to become visible.
Update (Jan 3, 01:00am EST)
I just checked various internet resources for two hours to find new videos of protests/riots of January 2 to 3. There were just a handful and none of them was remarkable. Some short clips of loud screaming of small crowds and light bashing with riot police. The protests and riots are obviously dying down.
This map is by HRA_news a Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA). It says "There were protests in at least 11 cities in #Iran on the sixth day".
bigger
Eleven cities is less than half than the thirty cities with protests/riots that were counted yesterday.
Based on a simple formula that is always used without fail, every act of munificence on US part assumes a major concession. Europe did not get a spine in Iran’s case, as Obama gave a wink and a nod to his fellow globalist-Zionist oligarchy, to “pressure” US to sign a nuclear deal. The deal was cut with Rouhani, a known “reformer”, who was to introduce neoliberal economy, and let US and Europe in. Did not happen. Instead, in response to the growing anti-Shia Saudi cult ISIS and others, Iran opted to support Iraq and Syria. US not happy. Rouhani not happy. Iran firmly tied now to Russia for defence and China for the long range development. US not happy to the extreme. We were thus toooo generous, so all the promises are off, one more Indian treaty. Like the Clinton one with North Korea.
So, do not count on Europe keeping its spine, as the ruling oligarchy/media scribes are the same. Slowly, “reluctantly” they will have to “pressure” Iran on human rights, etc. etc. Deal will be off. When it comes to US, the economic losses for us are potential great. Who knows what is happening to Boeing sales, etc. But this is peanuts compared to the salivating of Zionist crowd — being able to get their Iranian agenda back on track!
But I need to think some of this through. It is getting murky out there. Why is South Korea running to Moscow, and declaring Russia a reliable negotiating partner. Why are both Russia and China ignoring many sanctions on North Korea? Why is Erdogan running to Riyadh, and then announcing the deal with Sudan on restoring an old port city, abandoned after Port Sudan was built. And using the port for military base. So close to Saudi city of Jeddah, across the hot Red Sea pond. Presumably, Saudis are unhappy. Presumably Egypt is unhappy. Presumably they — like all inferior beings, in our view of the world — do not talk to each other. So, many inconsistencies are afoot, many confusing and contradicting moves — what does it all mean? For one, it may mean that US practices are linear and predictable, while the Asian and Mid East regions are opaque.
And Turkey becoming dependent on Russian air defence, nuclear energy, and oil and gas pipelines, as well as Chinese infrastructure, both physical and internet — will not make moves without consulting them both. So, what is afoot? We do not know. But we do know that following Egypt’s intervention, Qatar “conditions” were redefined as “principles, while the trade, and air traffic has increased from Qatar to Iran and Turkey. Given that Iraq has over 60% Shia population, Kuwait, 40%, Bahrain 80%, with large populations in Syria, Lebanon, and even Turkey. Almost entire North Yemen, is Shia. And the somewhat different religion of Oman, I would say, Oman is not too keen on letting Saudi Arabia spread Sunni caliphates. And given how US occasionally berates the new Crown Prince, while heaping regular abuse on his father, the King, I would say something is not quite kosher in this bromance. China opened a base in Djibouti. Egypt and Russia working on Libya mess. Pakistan put US on notice that it will shoot down any US flying object, as the days of drone attacks on Pakistan are over.
So, linear vs. opaque. I do not think we see or understand many other events, as they are not getting much coverage. We need to assume some asymmetrical events coming.
Posted by: Bianca | Jan 2 2018 23:21 utc | 33
Im an avid reader of MOA, ZeroHedge etc… and a strong supporter of movement towards a multi polar world and agree with much of what the axis of resistance stands for, but as a young Iranian Im very disappointed in this analysis and the following comments, perhaps this is understandable though since non of you guys seem to be aware of the extent of oppression and hypocrisy that exists in Iran under the Islamic republic.
So here I will try to give a narrative of why these protests are happening as a voice (out of many) for the Iranian youth,
What is happening these days in Iran doesnt resemble a color revolution to me as much as it does the constitutional revolution of 1906-1909 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Persian_Constitutional_Revolution);
for more than a 100 years we have called for Freedom, Independence and independent judiciary, and what have we got?
A state which has crafted its own upper class clerical and related oligarchy that openly claim majority of the resources and sole right of final decision making for themselves,
A state whose own president admitted 2 days ago that he has no control over 200,000 Billion Tumans of its budget out of a total budget of 360,000 Billion Tumans, due to special interest groups that he can not challenge,
A state in which “Centre for supporting clerical students” receives about $200 million a year while the whole of the very earthquake prone country’s emergency services receive $50 million a year,
A state in which the office of the representative of the supreme leader in universities receive more than $40 million a year while fund for helping university students with financial difficulty receives less than $10 million a year,
Over a hundred years ago our forefathers marched in the streets asking for an independent judiciary and what have we got?
An openly political judiciary whose head is an anoitee of the unelected supreme leader and whose former head (Mr.Shahroudi) called it a ruin,
A Judiciary which doesnt even reject that its current head has 63 personal bank accounts in his own name and receives over $7 million a month of interest from those accounts (because of “certain considerations”) while his own deputy and head of prison services admits that the prisons dont have the budget to feed prisoners 3 times a day.
A Judiciary where the Head openly interferes with domestic and international politics of the country and even goes as far as personally ordering the cancellation governmentally approved concerts by Shiite ISIS while rejecting to even consider corruption cases againstg his brothers with video proof.
My dear Multi polar world supporters, we are rebelling because we are oppressed, for too long we’ve been oppressed economically, Politically and socially,
We are sick and tired of the IR’s Hypocrisy,
we are sick and tired of seeing our troops and wealth fighting and dying in Syria, yemen etc (rightly in my opinion) in defense Alevites and Houthis and other groups while if in Iran these same groups would have been badly prosecuted as proved by the IR’s treatment of the Yaresan, Ahl el Haq and various sufi and dervish denominations in Iran,
We are sick and tired of our troops fighting and dying in Syria, for President Assad and Putin to say cheers in Sochi, while we would be lashed for the same cup of wine.
We are sick and tired of seeing our beloved religion hijacked by a few and used as a tool of oppression with the sole purpose of enriching a few.
The children of Sattarkhan,Sardar Assad Bakhtiari and Sepahsalar Tonekaboni have risen in the 4 corners of Iran against a clerical oligarchy that sucks the blood of the country dry, a clerical establishment that has amassed in 40 years an amount of wealth comparable to the Catholic church while our beloved Iran is going trough environmental and social disaster.
I have no doubt the enemies of Iran (US, Israel, saudi or other) will do their best to use these protests in their favor, but to call whats happening a color revolution is not only closing your eyes towards all the legitimate demands of the people protesting, but also bringing into question the sole achievement that IR has been claiming these past few years domestically as the providers of national security for Iran. If IR has failed to stop foreign infiltrators to cause unrest in 20+ of the small towns that are protesting all around Iran today, as well as failing Iran, economically, socially and politically, Isnt it the peoples right to call for a referendum that gives them a way out of this broken, corrupt system?
If you dont want this to turn into a color revolution then dont let it become one, dont let the vulture’s of the uni polar world to dominate the dialogue about the events in Iran, heed people’s legitimate concerns and ask your Governments (specially Brics countries) to engage IR and convince it of holding a referendum under international(specially brics) supervision, this way the one can ensure which ever side wins in this referendum will see Brics as partners not enemies, and after all if IR is as popular as you claim it to be, it shouldn’t have any fears of getting a second stamp of approval from the Iranian people 40 years on by holding a referendum.
Thank you for reading through my long comment, I hope you found it useful;
MOA if you believe in freedom of expression Tag-post this comment as a rebuttal to your analysis.
Posted by: ArioBarzan | Jan 3 2018 7:12 utc | 66
|
